Roger Goodell declined even to answer the question.

What does he want his legacy as NFL commissioner to be?

“If I was focusing on my legacy, I wouldn’t be standing in front of you,” Goodell said Wednesday as team owners gathered for their annual October meetings in New York. “I wouldn’t be signing an extension. My job is to be commissioner of the National Football League as best I can.

“I’m focused on what we’ve got to accomplish.”

Wednesday, the NFL announced an agreement to extend Goodell for three years, until March 2027. The extension positions his commissioner tenure to surpass 20 years. How did he get here and what can fans expect for the next three years? The answers are not dissimilar.

The NFL team owners’ renewal of Goodell sends a message that they like the direction he’s taken the NFL — and where he plans for it to go next.

That road winds through a changing media landscape, a growing market of international hosts, sports gambling and more. The road from here to 2027 doesn’t, on the other hand, seem to wind through labor negotiations. The NFL and NFLPA’s current collective bargaining agreement extends through the 2030 season.

So Goodell can focus on business growth areas rather than game maintenance in what team owners hope will be as lucrative a future as their past and present have proven.

“For the next three years,” Goodell said, “I’m going to bust my butt.”

NFL revenue, global reach has grown under Goodell

NFL revenue has grown steadily over the past decade en route to an all-time-high $11.9 billion last season, per Forbes. That revenue, which allowed each of 32 teams to collect $372 million, rose 7% from a year prior.

It’s also on pace to grow yet again.

Goodell’s administration has won ownership buy-in lately with two key categories: streaming evolution and international growth.

The NFL continues to rake in the overwhelming majority of its income from broadcasting deals, including with hefty contracts from traditional partners like ESPN/ABC, Fox, CBS and NBC. But the NFL also began integrating exclusive broadcasts last season from Amazon, who’s paying $13.2 billion for 11 years of “Thursday Night Football” rights. The NFL’s Sunday Ticket package moved this season to YouTube, who’s paying 50% more for the rights than DirecTV paid last year. NFL executive vice president Brian Rolapp said this week that Sunday Ticket is seeing a five-year subscriber high.

Even in the offseason, the “Quarterback” docuseries on which the NFL partnered with Netflix to reveal behind-the-scenes footage of active players ranked top-10 in 16 countries’ markets, per NFL exec Peter O’Reilly.

That leads to the international growth that the NFL has leaned heavily into during Goodell’s tenure. The league agreed when expanding to 17 games in 2021 that four regular-season games each year, in addition to franchise-organized contests like the Jacksonville Jaguars’ recurring London game, would be played abroad.

Two London stadiums have enjoyed the economic boom that accompanies an NFL game, as did Munich last year. Next year, the league expects to host a game in either Madrid or a city in Brazil. Add in a looming international Nickelodeon broadcast of the Super Bowl to engage kids abroad; the addition of flag football to the Olympics in hopes of continuing to grow women’s involvement in the game; and an international player pipeline from which teams can add an international player to their practice squad without losing a spot?

“We’re focused on how we make the NFL better every day, how we become a global sport,” Goodell said. “How do we continue to look at the future of strategy? Internationalism is a big part of that.”

Goodell’s job might not be what fans think it is

The boos that Goodell receives annually at the NFL Draft capture the dissonance between fans’ and team owners’ responses to Goodell. Fans view Goodell as the face of so much of what riles them up, from controversial officiating to social justice responses to league policies that trigger suspensions stemming from off-field conduct, like gambling and substance abuse. Team owners, meanwhile, look at their bank accounts and see the game’s steady climb alongside the identified routes to mount further.

The fans booing are still showing up. They’re still tuning in, too, to NFL games that routinely pace TV rankings as the most-viewed programs. That’s more important to team owners than those fans’ perceptions of the league.

Goodell’s tenure has been far from perfect. But the NFL’s finances have continued to move in the direction that the constituents who vote for the commissioner, the team owners, want. And thus, three more years await.

What will happen in 2027?

Goodell and the league have declined to speculate whether this contract will be Goodell’s last. Sentiment is also split among league voices over whether the post-2027 NFL structure should continue to front a single commissioner as the league’s reach and scope balloon.

“Internally we have to continue to look if we’re gonna bifurcate the position eventually to where you have a CEO and the commissioner,” Indianapolis Colts team owner Jim Irsay, a member of the compensation committee that approved Goodell’s deal, said. “The owners have to talk about that already … so we’re ahead of the curve in preparation and having those internal discussions.”

Another high-ranking team executive explained the drawbacks to that plan this week. In short: What happens when football and business considerations conflict? If a commissioner can’t break the tie between the best on-field product and the most lucrative one, who wins? The league’s growing international inventory, despite the toll it takes on players’ bodies, and the recently added 17th regular-season game, suggest that business is line 1 and thus the main role that a commissioner should fill.

For now, that commissioner is Goodell.

“I’m grateful, obviously honored, to do this job,” Goodell said. “[The extension] is not going to change how I’m approaching my day to day.”

– – –

Flag football, yes, flag football, is an Olympic sport.  And the NFL wants the US to beat up on whatever countries care to show up.  Richard Dietsch of The Athletic:

The Olympics are many things. There is the idealism, an apolitical celebration of the world’s strongest and fastest humans in front of an audience of the world. There is the hypocrisy, a biennial event run by a cabal of sportswashing, cowardly fat cats who kowtow to autocrats and oligarchs in the name of sporting competition.

But in the United States, here is what the Olympics are above all: A television show, although today we can call it a multi-platform production.

And this production is a costly one. NBCUniversal is paying the International Olympic Committee $7.65 billion for the exclusive rights to broadcast the Olympics in the United States through 2032. Given NBCUniversal is a for-profit enterprise, it needs to recoup this payout via advertising and sponsorship — and the company was given a glorious gift this week, from this column’s perspective:

Flag football will be part of the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

The sport was approved Monday by the IOC along with squash and lacrosse, as well as the return of baseball, softball and cricket. The NFL as an entity has already been outspoken in its support for flag football in the Olympics. The league wants to make football a global game, and the Olympics offer a massive marketing opportunity.

Here’s where it gets interesting for sports media purposes. We have already seen NFL stars such as Tyreek Hill show interest in participating, as well as retired players (like Rob Gronkowski). Interest will only grow as NFL players learn more about the competition. The opportunity to represent your country presents a new frontier for NFL players. I can’t see the NFL Players Association being against it.

There is usually a sport or two every Olympics cycle outside of those that traditionally draw viewer interest (gymnastics, swimming, track and field, figure skating, ice hockey) that captures the public attention. I would bet big that flag football will pop in 2028 given the likelihood of household names playing. NBCUniversal is going to have a massive hand in the programming of the L.A. Games for U.S. television purposes, and just imagine a flag football game featuring NFL stars in prime time. I mean, the Pro Bowl — also flag football now — averaged 6.28 million viewers this year, with nothing on the line. What would those numbers be for a game with a gold medal for the taking?

“It’s America’s favorite sport, in this case inclusive of both men and women, on the world’s greatest stage and a very exciting addition to the Olympic program for the American audience,” said Gary Zenkel, president, NBC Olympics and Paralympics.

Zenkel said NBC has not done any internal research regarding how popular the sport could be at a U.S.-based Olympics, but he called it intriguing. I would expect NBC Sports’ programming gurus to do significant data mining to see where the sport could really shine as far as platforms and start times.

USA Football CEO Scott Hallenbeck told NFL Network’s Judy Battista this week that there was a “strong possibility” we would see a Dream Team-like roster for flag football. He understands the value of the NFL brand behind this.

“We’re excited to see Tyreek Hill say, ‘I want to be in,’” Hallenbeck said. “Who wouldn’t want him involved? I will say there is a very strict process with the U.S. Olympic Committee and USA Football to put a player selection process in place. Of course, we would welcome NFL players as part of that process.”

Would the games be competitive between the Americans and other countries? I doubt it, but please let me know when Americans have not flocked around the television to watch someone wearing the Stars and Stripes crush the competition. An example: The most dominant U.S. Olympic team in recent history — USA women’s basketball in the Tokyo Olympics — drew 7.8 million viewers for its 90-75 win over Japan in the gold-medal game in August 2021. That game tipped live in prime time at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

Zenkel said: “NFL players, whether current or former, will deliver tremendous interest and excitement. ‘Brady to Gronk for gold!’ Hmmm.”

Speaking of Tom Brady, we know of at least one U.S. viewer who has already committed to watching flag football at the Olympics.

“It’s not gonna be like USA Olympic basketball where there’s a lot of good basketball players all over the world,” Brady said on this week’s episode of his SiriusXM show “Let’s Go!” with Larry Fitzgerald and Jim Gray. “In football, yeah, there are definitely some good players from other countries, but I don’t know if they can field a full team like America has. It’s been our sport for a long time. I don’t know how that one got passed, but I’m happy it did because I’ll be watching that, for sure.”

Book it: He won’t be the only one.

Seriously, besides Canada, and maybe not even Canada, what other country could field a decent flag football team?

If it was a regional USA competition – say by state or larger region, that could be interesting.  But this is going to be ratings gold?

CHICAGO

Undrafted rookie free agent TYSON BAGENT is next man up for the Bears at QB.  Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times:

Tyson Bagent is both completely original and nothing new.

The only two other Bears rookie undrafted free agent quarterbacks to start a game came with asterisks: one was a strike-year replacement player and the other former CFL star. Sunday against the Raiders at Soldier Field, he’ll become the 14th undrafted rookie to start an NFL game at the position in the last 10 years — and the only one to have played collegiately at low-level Div. II.

There have been few trajectories more unlikely than that of the 23-year-old son of an arm wrestling legend who was a no-star high school recruit and later set NCAA passing records 10 miles from home at Shepherd University. In the 10 months since his college career ended, Bagent impressed Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy at the Senior Bowl, signed a contract when the draft ended and made the Bears.

Alex Shapiro of NBCSportsChicago:

On Thursday, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy started to get into the things they see from Bagent on the field that gives him confidence Bagent can get the job done.

“I think he’s a fluid athlete,” said Getsy. “I think the processing part of it, he’s played a lot of ball in college, threw the ball all over the yard, so he’s an obvious passer of the football.”

The Bears have also described Fields as a good passer, pointing to his success throwing the ball back at Ohio State. They’ve been effusive about his deep ball for a long time. So any descriptions of Bagent as an “obvious passer” shouldn’t be read as a slight towards Fields.

Fields’ athleticism is second-to-none, however, so the Bears have things in their offense to take advantage of that athleticism, like designed runs and RPOs. Could there be additional concepts to play to Fields’ strengths, like moving pockets and vertical shots? Yes. But now, Bears coaches are charged with designing an offense around Bagent’s strengths.

“Certainly some of it will look different,” said head coach Matt Eberflus. “It’ll look different for sure just because you’ve always gotta play to the strength of who’s got the ball in their hands at quarterback. We’re going to do that for sure.”

We won’t know exactly what that looks like until the Bears take the field, but an educated guess might say the Bears could dial up more quick throws to get the ball out of Bagent’s hands. If the Bears really like his ability to process the field, then there could be an uptick in timing throws that are predicated on going through progressions precisely. We might see fewer designed runs, if any at all.

Bagent said he told coaches that he was comfortable with the entire call sheet when he came in to finish last week’s game. He didn’t want them to hold any plays back. This week he’s equally confident that he can master a full call sheet, no matter what the team installs. The key to his confidence goes back to his dedication to preparation.

“I’m not usually that comfortable until I know the whole game plan so I kind of put that burden on myself throughout the week,” Bagent said.

That confidence in turn spreads to the rest of the offense.

“The way he commands things, the checks he makes sometimes are just like, ‘Oh, he made that check,’” said wide receiver Tyler Scott. “Some things that necessarily weren’t initially in the game plan but just kind of things that was all playing football. I think he just has that ‘it’ about him.

“We had a scenario this past week where something was called and we made an adjustment on the fly… He just kind of made an adjustment leaving the huddle. He said, ‘Hey, they’ve been bailing.’ He seen something with the defense, he was like, ‘Hey, they’ve been doing this, snap it down at the top and I’ll hit it to you.’ And that’s when we converted that huge third down giving us a chance to win. I think he makes those kinds of football plays and just kind of sees the game and just kind of plays free.”

Here is a look at Bagent’s father – he’s won one more world championship (17 in arm wrestling) than Joey Chestnut (his 16^th hotdog eating title came this year).  This was written in about 2016:

Travis “The Beast” Bagent showed his decisive victory and enduring strength in earning his 17th world arm-wrestling championship last night on ESPN. He is the only super heavyweight (males over 226 pounds) in the world to win the world championship with both his left and right arms. In the world of wrist-wrestling, most athletes compete with one arm, but the Mohammed Ali-esque Bagent can truly back up his taunts to competitors to “Tell me I’m the greatest,” because he actually is.

His first world title came in 2002, when he also won with both arms. He’s competed most years since, earning 11 titles left-handed and another six with the right. He’s also snagged approximately 35 national titles, competing in his first nationals at age 19.

Now 39, the 6’3”, 265-pound Bagent commands respect for not only his strength, but for putting the sport of arm-wrestling on a world stage. And he’s not quitting anytime soon.

How and when did you get your nickname The Beast?

I went to an arm-wrestling tournament in Warsaw, Poland in 2004. I had just signed with an arm-wrestling league, but found out we had to have a nickname so the Poland promoter for the league told me, “You’re a beast,” and it’s stuck ever since.

You’ve won so many titles at this point, are you currently the winningest arm-wrestler in the world?

I don’t know. There are some 55-year old dudes that have been pulling since they were young. Some guys can pull a few weight classes, especially back when the sport wasn’t big. So there are probably some guys with more wins. But there is no arm-wrestler in the world with as many left and right championships as me and no one who has won both the overall super heavyweight left and right championship. We have guys who have won their weight classes but not the overall. I was born lucky to be left-handed. Left-handed is really easy. More guys are righty. And 99 percent of human beings are substantially better with one arm. Rarely is their off-arm the better one.

I know you learned the sport from your father, Jerry Boyd, himself a national arm-wrestling champion, and he had the vision of what you’d become. Looking back, can you see how the pieces all fit together to bring you to where you are today?

There is no doubt that arm-wrestling is a super unnatural movement that requires tons of on-the-job experience. No two people are the same. Every time you grab someone’s hand, the length of their arm, their hand size, how they apply pressure, all the angles and leverage, it’s unique. You get used to the feeling of your training partners and that’s a negative. I had hundreds of different hands to grab as a young kid. My father owned two clubs — The Big Arm in Shepherdstown and later, Billy Jack’s in Charles Town — offering me hundreds of opportunities to arm-wrestle people who were stronger and different than me. I had a lot of time to work at it and having all that experience before I went to the national championships gave me an edge. Few people have a situation like mine, a place where there are 10 tables and 400 to 600 competitors every Friday, Saturday and Sunday. And I cared desperately about finding someone in there I could beat! I didn’t stop until I did, and one thing I had the ability to do was beat people who were stronger than me. I don’t think most people get that.

More from Jon Greenberg of The Athletic:

For the dreamers and delusional escapists, Bagent could be the Bears’ Brock Purdy. It’s probably not going to be so, but hey, he hasn’t started a game yet. If I knew who he was five years ago, I wouldn’t have bet on him making it this far.

When asked what his backup plan was if he never made the NFL, he said, “I was going to basically just CrossFit my life away, get as ripped and jacked as I possibly could and be a teacher at Martinsburg High School.”

After deciding it was possible for him to make the NFL, Bagent said, the next step “was just figuring out how I could outwork everybody that maybe had more things than I did, had better facilities and all that stuff. It was really just trying to get it out of the mud, putting a lot of work in the shadows and just so I’d be ready for this week.”

For every Justin Fields, the five-star, can’t-miss prospect prospering under a bright spotlight and heavy expectations, there’s a Tyson Bagent, working just as hard somewhere less noticeable. In life, as in quarterbacking, there are many paths to get to the same destination.

According to Pro Football Reference, Bagent will be the first person born in West Virginia to start at quarterback in the NFL since Joe Gilliam Jr., who started seven games for the Steelers in 1973-74. But Gilliam, who was born in Charleston while his father played at West Virginia State, grew up in Tennessee. Bagent is born and bred. (The Bears’ first-round pick, right tackle Darnell Wright, is also a West Virginia native.)

There haven’t been many other NFL quarterbacks from the state (not including those who went to WVU or Marshall), and most of the ones who have actually thrown a pass predate the term “quarterback.” Any Ed Matesic fans in the house? In 2021, ESPN did a package on which states NFL QBs come from by using high school as a sorting mechanism. West Virginia was one of seven that hadn’t produced a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

As someone who grew up across the river from “wild, wonderful” West Virginia, became a man (via bar mitzvah) in Wheeling and actually went to Martinsburg almost every summer as a kid, I really respect this accomplishment.

In fact, let’s just enjoy this moment now because Sunday will likely represent a darker kind of story. The tale of the Bears quarterback is one of woe and disappointment, of crushed dreams and slumped shoulders. And in keeping with that theme, Bagent’s first foray into Bears quarterbacking didn’t go so hot. Yes, he led a touchdown drive that culminated with him running one in last week, but he also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and threw a game-sealing interception with a chance to beat Minnesota. Can he improve? Absolutely, and I hope he comes out firing Sunday.

Being an NFL quarterback is every kid’s wish. Being a Bears quarterback is what happens when you make that wish on a cursed monkey’s paw.

It’s a moody time in Chicago, which is another way of saying it’s Bears season. They’re 1-5 and everyone is questioning whether or not Fields is the future, while also pondering why we go through this mishegas every fall. In a few years, Bagent could be nothing more than the answer to a trivia question or a name for an angry fan to use in a rant.

But I’ll look on the bright side and say this is a moment to appreciate in what’s looking like another lost season.

When asked what it’s like to be here, a rookie from Shepherd University about to start a game at quarterback for the Bears, Bagent was downright inspirational.

“It means everything,” he said. “After the last game of my college career, I was talking to a good buddy of mine. We were kind of talking about hey, no matter how good or bad this goes at the next level, there is a very big chance that maybe you make the team but you might never get to start a game ever again in your whole life. You may never get that QB1 role ever again. That’s just kind of how the apple falls from the tree sometimes.

“But to look where I’m at and to look how everything has kind of fallen into place, just nothing but extreme gratitude and just feeling super blessed to be able to be (in) that kind of motivational role to the younger people in my family, kind of be that person they can look up to and just really motivation for everybody that may be at a smaller level and all the people back home.”

There have been a lot of quarterbacks to start a game for the Chicago Bears. Some good, most bad. And after Sunday, Tyson Bagent’s name will forever be known as one of them. No matter what happens, that’s pretty cool.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Yesterday, we had a report that the Titans would ship out RB DERRICK HENRY for a song.  Now, here’s RB SAQUON BARKLEY saying he doesn’t want the Giants to trade him.  Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

Running back Saquon Barkley made his intentions crystal clear with the NFL’s trade deadline less than two weeks away: He wants to remain with the New York Giants.

“Sitting here, everyone knows how I feel. Everyone knows I don’t want to get traded,” Barkley said. “I don’t think anyone in their right mind would want to get traded anywhere. It’s not an easy thing to do. You have to move. I have a family. I would love to be here.

“But like I said, it’s not in my control. My focus is to be the leader I can be for this team and get this thing on the right track.”

Barkley and the Giants (1-5) host the Washington Commanders on Sunday.

This will be Barkley’s second game back after missing three games because of a high ankle sprain. He rushed for 93 yards on 24 carries in Sunday night’s 14-9 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The No. 2 overall pick by the Giants in the 2018 NFL draft has 207 yards rushing and two total touchdowns so far this season.

The argument can be made for the struggling Giants to start moving players. This season, to date, has been an unmitigated disaster, a surprise on the heels of last season’s success when New York reached the postseason and won a playoff game in its first year under general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll.

Barkley remained healthy the entire 2022 season and finished with a career-high 1,307 yards rushing. But he was unable to reach agreement on a long-term deal with the Giants and instead settled for an adjusted franchise tag on the first day of training camp that included an extra $1 million available in incentives.

The veteran running back did not partake in the team’s offseason workout program this spring as they tried to work out the contract situation.

Barkley is set to become a free agent again at the end of this season. The Giants still have the option to use the franchise tag for a second straight year.

This uncertainty gives credence to the idea that moving Barkley at the deadline could be best for the player and the organization. Not that it’s something Barkley has considered.

“That never crossed my mind,” he said. “Obviously I’ve been public and vocal about how I feel about this organization and where I want to be. But like I said, knowing the business and seeing that side of it, there are a lot of things that I can’t control.”

Barkley insists a trade isn’t something he has even discussed with his personal team. He doesn’t believe it’s worth his time.

In the meantime, he has other things to capture his attention.

“It’s not really blocking it out. I can’t control that. It’s not like I’m able to make any decisions or have any say in that,” Barkley said. “Only say I have is the way I show up to work and the way I go out there and compete. That’s the things I can control.”

NEW ORLEANS

Some will say that QB DEREK CARR failed in the clutch Thursday, but on 3^rd down at the goal line he put the ball in the hands of TE FOSTER MOREAU.  Moreau, who grew up as part of Saints Nation, was distraught.  And there’s a good cameo appearance from RB ALVIN KAMARA in this dispatch from Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com:

New Orleans Saints tight end Foster Moreau struggled to keep the emotion out of his voice less than an hour after failing to secure a potential game-tying pass in a 31-24 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Moreau, a New Orleans native, was open in the corner of the end zone but could not come up with a pass from Derek Carr on third-and-6 with 30 seconds left.

“Yeah, you know, it’s tough,” Moreau said. “In front of every man, woman and child I’ve ever known. It’s a dark place to be. It’s the National Football League. It doesn’t come down to one play, but it comes down to one play. The team fought. The team fought as hard as we did, and it’s just unacceptable. It’s just pathetic.”

The Saints failed to convert on fourth down on the next play, and the Jaguars were able to seal the win. Moreau sat down on the bench after the game was over with his head in his hands as teammates tried to console him.

Moreau said that he cut his route too short but that the throw and read were correct.

“Short week, that’s a lack of focus, lack of concentration. It’s unacceptable,” he said.

Running back Alvin Kamara came over to give Moreau a hug and walked off to the locker room with him.

Moreau, who was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in the offseason, is a spokesperson for the NFL’s “Crucial Catch” campaign, which urges early screening for cancer. The Saints painted the end zone with the campaign’s slogan on Thursday night.

Kamara said he reminded Moreau after the loss that it pales in comparison to what he went through in the offseason.

“There’s going to be bigger plays,” Kamara said. “There’s going to be more plays out there. I just told him, man, he’s blessed for what he’s been through. That ain’t nothing. … I ain’t worried about Fos not making that play. Honestly, I don’t think we should be in that position right there where we’re looking at that like, ‘Oh man, he should’ve caught it.’ Of course he should’ve caught it. He knows he should’ve caught it. Anybody in that position right there should’ve caught it. We’re pros.

“But Fos, man, if there’s anybody out there that cares, that’s uplifting his teammates, that’s doing everything he can to try to get a win and uplift everybody else and get them in the right mind frame to win, it’s him. Man, I’m not worried about that. It is what it is.”

Carr said that while fans’ anger might be directed at Moreau, the game didn’t come down to one play.

“Our job as brothers and as family, as teammates, is to go really around him,” Carr said. “I’ve been in that moment where you miss a throw and you throw a bad pick and something like that and you feel like everybody hates you. Our job as teammates … is to put your arm around them and keep them pushing. To see our teammates react that way shows we have a good group. Because I’ve seen in moments like that where everybody just starts pointing fingers. … I’ve never been a believer, just because it happens in that moment. There’s so many things we could’ve done that wouldn’t even put him in that situation.”

How sad that Moreau did not make the Crucial Catch.

– – –

What might seem like welcome candor to some, strikes Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com as unacceptable blaming of teammates.

Saints quarterback Derek Carr might soon find himself on the wrong end of a code red.

On Thursday night, Carr repeatedly expressed frustrations after plays that didn’t work. The message became unmistakable.

It’s someone else’s fault, not mine.

That’s not what good quarterbacks do. It’s not what good leaders do. They raise concerns with others privately, away from the prying eyes of a phalanx of Amazon Prime HD cameras. And, imagine this, they sometimes even accept blame when perhaps they shouldn’t.

“I’ve been showing my emotion a little bit too much on my sleeve,” Carr admitted to reporters after last night’s 31-24 loss to the Jaguars. “You know, like, I kind of got to kind of chill out, and that’s me holding myself accountable. Because that’s not going to help anything. And so just trying to be a calming influence in those moments, especially when it’s been a couple time it’s happened, that heightened frustration. I can do a better job as a leader to calm everybody down.”

That’s fine, until he added this: “There were some things that happened today that led to some pretty big negative plays that should never happen, and I think that’s where my frustration was coming from.”

Juxtaposed against his facial expressions and overall histrionics, it’s clear that he thinks the “big negative plays that should never happen” could never be blamed on him.

How will players like receiver Chris Olave feel about what happened last night? He was publicly dressed down with a “what are you doing?” from Carr. (Carr tried to say after the game that his comments weren’t directed to Olave, which frankly is a load of crap.) Other players caught some of it as well last night.

Beyond whatever those players thought about Carr’s antics in the moment, think of the texts and calls they’ve gotten or will be getting from family members and/or friends, expressing anger with Carr for treating fellow players that way on national TV.

It’s just not something good quarterbacks do. Remember when the Colts lost to the Steelers in the playoffs after the 2005 season? Quarterback Peyton Manning was dragged for a relatively tame effort to point out the obvious.

“I’m trying to be a good teammate here,” Manning said. “Let’s just say we had some problems in protection. I’ll give Pittsburgh credit for the blitzes and their rush. Those guys rushed. But we did have some protection problems.”

That was nothing in comparison to Carr’s constant airing of grievances against his teammates. It was awkward. It was unfortunate. And it’s going to require Carr to do some real work to mend fences. If he’s inclined to even do so.

And that’s the one piece of free (money’s worth) advice we’ll give Derek Carr. Don’t even try to do it, unless it’s genuine and authentic. Don’t say whatever you think a guy in your situation should say. Say what needs to be said to repair the obvious damage that you’ve done to those critically important relationships.

To the DB there is a big difference between a frank conversation in the heat of the moment and a postgame dressing down.  Now, a big element is whether Carr’s beef was righteous or did the receiver have a side of the story.  We tend to think the QB knows the offense, but maybe not.

LAS VEGAS

What a match-up at Soldier Field Sunday – rookie QBs AIDAN O’CONNELL vs. rookie QB TYSON BAGENT.  Or maybe QB BRIAN HOYER for the Raiders.  The Athletic:

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will miss Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears as he deals with a back injury, a league source said. The Las Vegas Review-Journal first reported to the news. Here’s what you need to know:

Garoppolo sustained the injury in the second quarter of last weekend’s win over the New England Patriots. He was taken to the hospital out of fear of internal injuries after exiting the game.

Raiders coach Josh McDaniels said Monday that Garoppolo’s “prognosis is a lot better” than the team expected and the quarterback was still undergoing tests to determine his game status.

The Bears said earlier this week that starting quarterback Justin Fields is doubtful to play Sunday with a dislocated thumb.

Raiders have a decision to make at QB

While internal injuries were ruled out, Garoppolo’s injury is still serious enough for him to miss time. It’s unclear whether Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell will start against the Bears.

JACKSONVILLE

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE finally walked out of the Superdome a winner on Thursday night.  Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com:

New Orleans hasn’t exactly been the Big Easy for Trevor Lawrence.

The only two games he lost in his three-year career as Clemson’s starting quarterback came in the Caesars Superdome, and his second preseason game as a rookie with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021 also resulted in a loss. That’s one of the reasons he was so set on playing against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night despite having a sprained left knee.

And that’s another reason the Jaguars’ 31-24 victory — in which Lawrence connected with Christian Kirk on the winning touchdown pass — was so rewarding.

“I’ve had a bad taste in my mouth every time I’ve left New Orleans, so it feels good to get a win here,” he said.

For Lawrence, the two College Football Playoff games he lost still sting: to LSU in the national championship game following the 2019 season and to Ohio State in a semifinal game the following season, which was the final game of his college career, leaving his record as a starter at 34-2.

Lawrence got his first victory in the Superdome only four days after suffering a sprained left knee late in the Jaguars’ 37-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. It didn’t look like he would be able to play early in the week — coach Doug Pederson said he thought on Monday that Lawrence would be out — but the quarterback said his knee felt better as the week wore on. After moving well during a pregame warmup, he got the clearance to play.

He said he did have some pain in his knee, but he wasn’t wearing a brace at his postgame news conference and said he came through the game OK.

“It felt pretty good,” Lawrence said. “I was happy with it, and it didn’t bother me too much. Definitely didn’t set it back, so I’m really happy with it. That was the goal: Find a way to win the game and not set it back, and we’ll get 10 days now to recover and get ready for Pittsburgh.

“It went perfect, honestly, so that was really good.”

Lawrence threw for 204 yards and ran for a career-high 59 yards on eight carries. He was the game’s second-leading rusher, trailing Alvin Kamara by 3 yards, which wasn’t exactly what anyone expected.

“It wasn’t the plan, but instincts kind of take over, and I’m glad that it was able to hold up and I was able to feel good enough to make those plays,” Lawrence said, referring to his knee.

Lawrence didn’t practice Monday, and backup quarterback C.J. Beathard took the majority of the first-team reps in practice Tuesday and Wednesday, which made what he did against the Saints even more impressive, Pederson said.

“This is a short week, and on Monday I would’ve told you that he was not playing in this football game,” Pederson said. “But that’s not who Trevor is. Proud of his effort, the ability to escape the pocket [and] run. Fortunately they were straight-ahead runs. He didn’t have to cut too much.

“But a lot of gutsy performances out there, and his is probably the No. 1.”

Lawrence wasn’t the only former Clemson standout to pick up his first victory in the Superdome on Thursday night. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. — who ran for 53 yards and two touchdowns, making him the first player in franchise history to run for multiple touchdowns in three consecutive games — was 0-3. In addition to the two games he lost while playing with Lawrence at Clemson, he also lost to Alabama in a CFP semifinal game following the 2017 season.

MIAMI

The greatness of QB TUA TAGOVIALOA at the college level sent QB JALEN HURTS scurrying from Alabama to Oklahoma.  Tim McManus and Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com look at their joint history prior to Sunday night’s big game:

ALABAMA’S NICK SABAN huddled his staff inside the visiting coaches locker room at Mercedes-Benz Stadium during halftime of the 2018 College Football Playoff championship game and dropped a loaded question in tight quarters.

“What do we need to get going on offense?”

Quarterback Jalen Hurts, the reigning SEC Offensive Player of the Year, had been a force since arriving on campus, guiding the Tide to a 26-2 record and back-to-back title game appearances as the starter.

But Alabama had been shut out in the first half against Georgia and trailed 13-0. Waiting in the wings was freshman phenom Tua Tagovailoa, whose precision passing stirred excitement throughout the season. After conferring with his staff, Saban sought out the quarterbacks to announce his decision.

“The consensus was, ‘Hey, let’s give the other kid a shot,'” said Mike Locksley, former Alabama offensive coordinator and current head coach at Maryland.

Word that Tagovailoa would start the second half didn’t reach some of their teammates until the offense took the field, and the switch surprised many of the players and coaches.

The decision sparked a chain reaction that reverberated well beyond that championship game. It ultimately set Tagovailoa and Hurts on divergent paths to stardom, in college and the NFL. Those paths will cross for the first time Sunday night when Hurts and the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles host Tagovailoa and the 5-1 Miami Dolphins (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

“We’ll probably see each other before the game to wish each other luck, but at the end of the day, we’re both trying to help our teams win,” Tagovailoa said Wednesday. “I’ve got a lot of respect for Jalen. He’s been a great competitor since I got to Alabama.”

Tagovailoa awakened the Alabama attack when he entered the 2018 CFP title game, tossing three touchdowns in the 26-23 comeback overtime win. The winning score came on a 41-yard strike to DeVonta Smith, who is a teammate of Hurts in Philadelphia.

“After Tua threw the touchdown, Jalen was one of the first guys to run up to him,” Smith said.

“Seeing them hug afterwards, then hug us, you really only see that in movies,” former Alabama receiver Swade Hutchinson said. “You saw nothing but tears of happiness and joy from Jalen to Tua and the rest of us.

“That was probably the greatest moment. There’s nothing that will trump that.”

ALABAMA HAD JUST finished its spring football session in 2016, and Hurts had a talk with Locksley that reflected a surprising level of confidence for a 17-year-old freshman. Hurts was acting like the starting quarterback well before that call was made, and it rubbed some other quarterbacks on the team the wrong way, according to former Alabama QB Josh Palet.

“I can just remember Jalen after spring ball, a private conversation we had where he basically said, ‘I’m going to make [the other quarterbacks] all transfer,'” Locksley said. “And I’m looking at him like, ‘That’s a bold statement for a true freshman.’

“And by the end of that 2016 season, they all did, and he was standing atop as the first freshman SEC player of the year since Herschel Walker [in 1980].”

The transferring of Blake Barnett, David Cornwell and Cooper Bateman, and the graduation of Palet, created a void at the quarterback position. And it led to a pair of newcomers joining the Tide — Tagovailoa and Mac Jones.

Tagovailoa arrived in 2017 as the top-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the country and part of the nation’s No. 1 draft class, and while Hurts was the unquestioned starter, Tagovailoa saw plenty of action. He finished with 636 passing yards and 11 touchdowns in eight appearances.

“When I got there, it was like, ‘OK, I don’t want to mess up what we have here, so I’m going to try to find where I fit,'” Tagovailoa said. “But then it’s also one of those things where if you aren’t strong mentally, you either had to be … or figure it out. Or you wouldn’t have made it there.”

Hurts led an offense that put up 37.1 points per game, the 15th-most in the nation, but it was largely on the strength of a run game that featured future NFL backs Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs and Brian Robinson Jr.

Tagovailoa, meanwhile, gave the Crimson Tide visions of the future.

“Guys recognized [Hurts is] a gamer and a great quarterback, but I think guys had a feeling that Tua could throw the ball better,” former walk-on wide receiver Mac Hereford said. “They wanted the guy who was going to throw more.

“Jalen had a tendency when the pocket broke, most of the time, to go for a run, whereas the idea was most of the time when the pocket broke for Tua, he was going to try and extend a play and make a play happen.”

Hurts and Tagovailoa split first-team practice reps throughout the season, with Hurts taking roughly 80%, Hutchinson said. But Hurts came down with the flu in the days leading up to the Sugar Bowl against Clemson, and Tagovailoa took the starter’s reps.

“Anybody that remembers those two or three practices, man, we looked like a different team,” Locksley said. “I could just remember the two or three days of practices where the ball didn’t ever touch the ground.”

Tagovailoa’s performance was strong enough to warrant playing time against Clemson — or so he thought.

Hurts played every snap of a grueling 24-6 win, during which Alabama compiled 261 yards of offense and 120 passing yards.

“Tua was so mad after that game, there was a chance that he was literally going to transfer,” Locksley said, “because he expected to play in that game.

“And at the end of it, he was not happy that he didn’t play, but he obviously stayed on, and thank goodness he did.”

WHEN ALABAMA FACED Georgia in the College Football Playoff championship game the following week, Hurts finished the half with 21 passing yards and the Tide trailed 13-0.

“That’s when Coach asked the question,” Locksley said. “And the conversation was, ‘Hey, give Tua a shot. If he doesn’t ignite us, we always have the ability to go back to Jalen.’

“This gives Jalen a chance to kind of settle down. Maybe it gives him a different kind of perspective seeing it from the sideline.”

Considering the circumstances, there wasn’t much time to process the decision.

“People thought there was a potential that Tua would step into place for Jalen Hurts throughout the season,” Hereford said. “But when you get to the point where it’s the national championship game, I don’t think anybody really thought Coach Saban would 100 percent do it.”

Saban alerted the two quarterbacks, but there was no teamwide announcement.

“It was just strange to see,” Hutchinson said. “Nobody knew he was going in at the time on my side of the locker room, so when we showed up in the game it was just, ‘Wait a minute. What is going on?'”

Hereford added: “It was very quick. You couldn’t even really soak it in. The call was made, Tua comes out and it’s just like, ‘Well, that’s how we’re going to play it.'”

Tagovailoa displayed the off-script playmaking ability his teammates had seen in practice all season, and he threw a touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs III on Alabama’s second drive of the third quarter.

Facing a one-score deficit on fourth-and-4 late in the fourth quarter, Tagovailoa found Calvin Ridley for a 7-yard touchdown pass to tie the game.

In overtime, Tagovailoa took a sack on Alabama’s first play, then delivered one of the most iconic passes in college football history to win the national championship.

Tagovailoa finished with 166 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception in what wound up being his final game as a backup.

“Tua gets inserted, and the rest is history,” Locksley said.

HURTS HAS SAID he carries his scars with him wherever he goes, and there was a sizable one left when he was benched in that title game.

“We talked about it very briefly. … [He] expressed his disappointment in himself and was deeply hurt,” Byron Henderson, Hurts’ former coach at Texas’ Channelview High School, said in a January interview. “But he immediately gathered himself and went back to work. … He blamed no one for the way things went at Alabama but himself; therefore, he knew that the only one to fix it or make it better was himself.”

Hurts was dealt another blow when Tagovailoa won the starting job in 2018.

“That was the first time I ever saw any [vulnerability] from the standpoint of he was lost,” Locksley said. “I could just remember him asking, ‘What do I do now?'”

For the time being, the answer was to stick at Alabama, earn his degree in public relations and information sciences, and play the supporting role.

“Jalen’s a great person, [and] Tua might be one of the nicest people you will ever meet,” Ridley said. “Any weird stuff going around with them, you would never have that. … They only would work to help each other succeed, because they’re just two great people and they know their skill sets, and they know what Alabama’s about and what we were trying to do in that moment.”

There was a reversal of fortune, for one night, on Dec. 1, 2018, when Tagovailoa exited the SEC championship in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury against Georgia. It was Hurts’ turn to attempt a come-from-behind win against the Bulldogs. He tied the game with a touchdown pass to Jerry Jeudy and then scored the go-ahead TD on a 15-yard run to lift Alabama to a 35-28 victory.

“A lot of us, after the thrill of the win, as we started to come down, we started almost laughing to ourselves going, ‘Are we involved in some kind of Disney movie we’re unaware of?’ It was too weird,” said Alex Mortensen, former Alabama analyst. “But it was awesome.

“A lot of people were excited for him because of the way he conducted himself. You really wanted him to have personal success.”

The following year, Hurts moved on to Oklahoma, where he finished second to Joe Burrow in the Heisman Trophy voting after throwing 32 touchdown passes and rushing for 20 more.

“He was a special player throughout his entire college career,” Tagovailoa said.

Hurts has carried that momentum to the NFL. The 2020 second-round pick is 19-2 as a starter over the last two regular seasons. He played arguably the best game of his career in a 38-35 Super Bowl LVII defeat to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Hurts was rewarded with the richest contract in NFL history at the time, inking a five-year, $255 million extension in March.

“It’s a compound effect of not just those times at Alabama, but my whole career thus far of a number of different experiences,” Hurts said, when asked how his Alabama experience shaped his mental makeup. “There’s always an opportunity to learn from that, and I think I’ve just grown in wisdom and grown as a person throughout my whole entire career.”

A monster payday for Tagovailoa, who was selected No. 5 in the 2020 draft, looks to be right around the corner. He is the MVP favorite at Caesars Sportsbook and is off to a blistering start after an injury-filled 2022 season. The Dolphins offense leads the league in total yards (498.7), passing yards (316.8) and points per game (37.2) through six weeks.

“When two guys are competing, they’re making each other better, making the team better,” said Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota, who is a mentor of Tagovailoa and fellow alum of the same high school in Hawaii. “I thought Tua and Jalen embraced that. I thought they both made each other better, and I think that’s why they’re both having success at this level.”

Hurts and Tagovailoa haven’t stayed in contact much since their Alabama days. There’s more of a mutual admiration than a close friendship.

“It’s been great to see the things he’s been able to do over his career,” Hurts said. “I’m hoping for continued success.”

Hereford recalled a scene from the championship parade just days after the win over Georgia, when the QBs walked the route side-by-side.

“There’s a picture of them together with their arms around each other: It was Mac Jones, Tua and Jalen. They weren’t acting,” Hereford said. “They were around each other and they were happy. It didn’t matter who did this or who did that. You got that vibe that they were boys, and not just football teammates.”

Now they’re adversaries — no longer competing for the same position, just for the same goal.

“I’ve got a lot of respect for him, for who he is as a person, who he is as a player,” Tagovailoa said, “and I wish him the best of luck as we play him.”Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts will meet on an NFL field on Sunday night as opponents — and as former teammates.

THIS AND THAT

OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES

In 2023, the NFL’s offenses have abated.  Nate Tice of YahooSports.com explores why:

Offenses are simply not creating chunk plays through the air or on the ground, a culmination of a recent trend (or renaissance) in defensive philosophy that wants to make offenses earn those yards and points, sacrificing multiple short gains to take away the long ball. While more reps can lead to leaner muscle in real life, it forces offenses to make effective plays constantly and hope their moments of selected aggression work out more often than not.

The plays offenses are throwing at these defenses have not been packing the wallop they used to. And it’s not because of loud music or Dan Fogelberg. It’s the culmination of league trends on both sides of the ball. Even to the simple eye test of watching an NFL game (or checking your fantasy scores) it’s apparent. But the underlying numbers are stark: The league average explosive play rate of 10% in 2023 is the lowest through six weeks since the start of TruMedia’s play data in 2000. And both run games and passing games have been hit.

(I’ll try to do my best with narrowing down the “since the year 20xx” statistical disclaimers. But, also, like, be ready.)

The trade-off is supposed to be that offenses are able, nay, allowed to be efficient. Peppering the defense underneath with 5-to-8-yard gains and testing the deep ball every once in a while to keep safeties from creeping down.

But the problem is offenses aren’t complying. They hear all of us crying for yards and points and whisper, “No.”

NFL offensive statistics in 2023 are … stark

NFL offenses had an offensive success rate of 41.2% and passing success rate of 43.7% through the first six weeks of this season. Both are the third-lowest rates in their categories since 2000 and the lowest in a decade. And even running the ball has been more “fine” than “good,” with success rate sitting right around the NFL average over the previous 20 years.

The passing game is a large part of these ill-advised attempts at moving the ball. And the run game hasn’t been efficient or explosive (with the lowest explosive run rate, meaning 12-plus yards, since at least 2000) enough to overcome it.

Quarterbacks are currently averaging the lowest expected points added per dropback and per pass attempt on record. It’s the first time the EPA per dropback mark has ever had an average in the negatives, meaning a standard dropback play in 2023 is, on average, more beneficial for the defense than the offense.

Offenses in general are following suit, with their total EPA and EPA per play both hitting their lowest marks since, yes again, the year 2000.

For those who are more fluent in standard counting stats, in 2023 quarterbacks are currently throwing touchdowns on 3.9% of their pass attempts and averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. Both are lows that we haven’t seen since 2008. This season currently features the lowest yards per completion on record ever. Quarterbacks are currently recording a first down on 31.4% of their dropbacks, the lowest since 2003.

Not to worry, right? “Quarterbacks are more athletic than ever!” you say. “Just sprinkle a little QB run game on it!” And, well, yes that is true. More quarterbacks use their legs as a consistent weapon these days. But it might be playing into the defense’s hands, and also artificially lifting some of these stats.

Quarterbacks are currently scrambling more than ever, with the scramble per dropback rate hitting 5% for the first time through this point in the season. They are also taking sacks at a rate we haven’t seen since Will Smith was rapping about Miami, currently sitting at a sack rate of 7.2% that feels downright wrong and will hinder any offense.

Scrambling has remained as effective as ever on a per-play basis. But it also means those dropback numbers are being artificially inflated by the legs of quarterbacks in 2023 (the three results of a dropback being a scramble, sack or pass attempt). So that whole “pass attempt” thing has been a slog.

So it’s hard to consistently get yards right now. It’s also hard to get a lot of yards at once. And when you do get a bunch of yards at once, you might give it right back on a sack. Surely it gets easier once offenses get closer to paydirt, right? Closer to those golden 6 points that make it all worth it? Maybe even a group celebration to cap it off?

Nah. Defenses are straight laughing at that whole “touchdown” idea. Offenses are currently scoring touchdowns on just 53.3% of their drives that have reached the red zone, the lowest rate since 2012 and nearly a 10% drop from 2020’s six-week rate of 62.7%. And that’s with more aggressive play-calling on fourth down from head coaches across the league.

Who or what is to blame for NFL scoring being down?

So now that we’ve seen the crime scene that we’ll call offensive performances, who or what is to blame? Why is this all happening?

I think this plays out more like an ending to a “Scream” movie (except the third one, spoilers) in that there are several killers (of offenses), rather than just one villain. Because, like a lot of things involving football, several variables are a factor.

First and foremost, and something I hinted at: Defenses are currently running more zone coverages, with upticks in Cover 4, Cover 6 and Cover 3 steadily increasing league-wide until finding this current meta of Cover 3 and 4 being the yin and yang to most looks. As a result, man coverage has dropped significantly league-wide, from 28.3% in 2019 to 18% in 2023. (Except with the Browns and Jim Schwartz, because the world needs outliers.)

Zone coverages simply make quarterbacks work, mentally and physically. They have to find the proper place to go with the ball, and then they have to deliver the throw in between several closing defenders. With man coverage, a quarterback can choose a personnel or route matchup that he feels is advantageous and go from there. So again, defenses are forcing offenses to be efficient rather than give them chances at simple point-and-shoot looks.

Even longtime man coverage users like New England’s Bill Belichick and his disciple Brian Flores of Minnesota have increased their use of zone coverages, with Flores even dropping eight defenders into coverage at a cartoonish 17.2% rate this season, four times the league average.

Also that increase in Cover 4 — remember bend, don’t break — has carried over into the red zone. There has been a slight uptick in Cover 4 along with Cover 0 (think “Engage Eight” in Madden or an all-out blitz variety) inside the 20-yard line to heat up quarterbacks into making quick decisions, testing offensive line rules and also allowing a defense’s defensive backs to play aggressively in coverage, both in the red zone and the field:

Defensive coordinators are min-maxing the more finesse and adaptable “soft” zone coverage looks with the sheer aggression of sending the house in the field and red zone. Basically, if Buddy Ryan and Monte Kiffin’s schematic trees cross-pollinated (and I don’t mean Rex and Lane), it’d result in modern defenses. Because while teams are running more Cover 4 and zone than ever, they are also running Cover 0 at its highest rate league-wide since 2019, TruMedia’s first year with coverage data. In fact, the two games with the highest rate of blitzes from one defense both happened this year — from the aforementioned Flores, now defensive coordinator for the Vikings, against the Chargers in Week 3, and three days earlier by the New York Giants and their blitz-enthusiast defensive coordinator Wink Martindale against the San Francisco 49ers.

That philosophy has also kept offenses from even having chances at the end zone and forcing them to settle. Teams are currently averaging 2.11 field-goal attempts per game, which would be the most since 1973 if it currently holds. That’s also the last year when field-goal posts were hilariously and dangerously located in the front of the end zone — which isn’t a coincidence.

Defenses are also outright better now.

As offenses become distilled to learn how to create yards, the defensive countermeasures do the same, whether it’s the modern quarterback run game or a Kyle Shanahan bootleg attack or staple play-action and third-down concepts. Defenses found tweaks that worked. As quarterbacks and pass-catchers evolved, the defensive backs and coaches who defended against them did as well. Safeties now have experience in defending the common route paths from the Shanahan passing game and others that have proliferated throughout the league, especially for play-action concepts featuring overs and posts that require communication and cohesion between multiple defensive players.

And as offenses feel suffocated, they have to try and create explosive plays to get some breathing room. Recent Cowboys offense vs. 49ers defense tilts have been great examples of an efficient offense not being able to create enough haymakers to keep a defense at bay. It’s lone survivor simply running out of ammo against a zombie-like defense always moving forward.

Dropping back further or frequently calling longer-developing plays leaves quarterbacks and offensive lines exposed to the talented defensive lines with endless pass rushers who seemingly every team has these days.

Again, those endless waves of pass rushers are not a mirage of a few bad offensive performances on island games. Teams are allocating more of their salary cap to the defensive line than ever, with that mark hitting over 13% for the first time ever according to Spotrac. And it’s not just empty spending, with teams like the Browns, Cowboys, Jets and 49ers realizing the booster effect each talented pass rush seems to have on their front and overall defense. (And, frankly, just the team overall.)

Those pass rushers seem to be everywhere. So far this season, 107 pass rushers have a pressure rate of 10% or more, according to Next Gen Stats, which is 21 more than a year ago at this point in the season. And defenses currently have the highest pressure and quarterback knockdown rate with just four pass rushers going back to the beginning of TruMedia’s pressure data in 2019. QBs are being knocked down 186 more times in 2023 compared to 2019. Those hits add up!

That means any offense that has featured one, or several (I’m so sorry, Giants fans) offensive line injuries is already tempting fate with every aggressive play-call on their call sheet. And if they don’t have a quarterback who can mitigate the pass rush with quick decision-making or playmaking, offensive coaches have to get into the lab to figure out how they can create chunk plays.

Quarterbacks are culpable, too

Now what about the players throwing the football? They are young, a little dumb and ready to run.

Mike Sando of The Athletic recently looked into the changing of the guard that’s currently happening at the position. A recent flux of quarterbacks from the golden age of throwing have ridden off into the sunset, and a new wave of starters with limited experience have taken over the league.

According to Sando’s research, there were just two quarterbacks with 13 or more years of starting experience who started Week 1 in 2023. And that includes Aaron Rodgers’ grand total of four plays with the Jets.

That is a steep drop from 2017, which featured nine such quarterbacks. More importantly, there were 15 QBs who were between Years 1-4 starting Week 1. Nearly half of the league featured a quarterback on their rookie contract. There were just eight rookie contract quarterbacks in 2018.

The quarterbacks are less experienced in terms of seasons as a professional, but also in general age, which is a result of players entering the NFL Draft earlier. The average age drop from Week 1 starters in 2022 to 2023 was the third-largest decline since at least 1950.

So to summarize: There’s been a dropoff from players like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan to a crop of signal-callers who are entering the league earlier, while defenses are getting smarter and clamping down on offenses league-wide, with better and more pass rushers and throw it in with any offensive line woes. And that’s how you get the lowest explosive play rate, a bottom-three success rate, and a record scrambling rate along with the highest sack rate in 25 years. These past few seasons have been the scientists adding marbles to the bowl in “Oppenheimer,” and the first six weeks have been the detonation.

Will NFL offenses rebound anytime soon?

Is this the new norm? Are NFL games now confined to a race to 20 points?

While there will still be some schlock-filled performances this season, I do think offenses will rebound. If not this year, then next season.

Quarterbacks receiving experience in live situations will pay dividends down the road, even if not all of them work out for their current team (or ever). C.J. Stroud has been a standout rookie and there are a plethora of talented quarterbacks under 30 in just the AFC alone. We may have been spoiled with the group retiring and not remembering their early careers as well.

New counterpunches will be developed by a team that become a new staple, which will then be copied and molded by other teams. Much like what teams like the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams have done this season in terms of using motion, which other teams have already mixed into their own attacks. (Also, sidenote: This overall offensive trend hasn’t really affected the Dolphins, who have been putting up historic numbers and are also doing things like having the highest touchdown rate in the red zone ever, despite rates being depressed league-wide. Mike McDaniel is very good at this stuff.)

Perhaps teams will learn that they have reached critical mass in some regards — the NFL has never been in the shotgun more than this season — and will revert back to looks of yesteryear. Like how the Rams use Puka Nacua essentially as a fullback at times:

Or maybe just with personnel and formation. Some of the top offenses like the Dolphins, 49ers, Lions, Bills and Chiefs feature fullbacks and multiple tight end looks and multiplicity to keep defenses on their toes. Become less predictable and one-dimensional for defenses to tee off on.

And there’s nothing like a good ol’ “emphasis on illegal contact” that the rules committee might throw in there to help.

Scoring and offensive output might not reach the highs of the late 2010s, but coaches and players will adjust and adapt and modify. It’s the cyclical nature of the NFL, from the players to the play calls. Defenses are having their moment. And it’s going to be interesting to see what offensive coaches cook up, and what players emerge, to reclaim those golden 6 points.

MIKE SANDO TALKS QBS

Mike Sando of The Athletic ranks the QBs thru Week 6:

Life on the week-to-week NFL roller coaster can be disorienting. Every so often, I like to step back, regroup and reframe in my mind how I feel about teams, players, coaches and situations.

I’ve done that with the 32 starting quarterbacks, reconciling preseason expectations with the general feel one-third of the way through the 18-week regular season. Five quarterbacks are faring better than expected. Four aren’t as bad as feared. The past six weeks have amplified questions surrounding quite a few others.

We’ll dive right in, mindful that there are no final judgments in October, as much can change in just a few weeks.

1. Better than expected

If someone had said this is how the season would start, a realist would have signed up for it, no questions asked.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: He’s healthy and producing on a record-setting pace for an offense that ranks second in NFL history for yards through six games.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: He’s been even more consistently accurate and polished as a pocket passer than advertised, and it’s showing up right away, despite not having the best talent around him.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: He has picked up where he left off last season (top five in EPA per pass play). This time, the Lions are playing well enough on defense for his efforts to translate into the win column with greater consistency.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: His elbow injury has been a non-factor for a 49ers offense that appeared unstoppable until encountering the Cleveland Browns’ defense in Week 6.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: A return to health has allowed Stafford to keep the Rams competitive with and without Cooper Kupp.

2. Not as bad as feared

It seemed like just about everyone expected the worst, but these QBs have not lived down to those expectations.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets: Wilson has cut down on mistakes sufficiently for New York to beat Buffalo and Philadelphia during a 3-3 start that saw the Jets take Kansas City to the wire as well.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: His statistical production aligns generally with his promising 2018 rookie season, for a Buccaneers team no one outside 1 Buccaneer Place expected to have a 3-2 record at this point.

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: Despite the 34 sacks he has taken, it’s tough to say Howell is dooming a 3-3 team that ranks 11th in offensive EPA per game, compared to 25th on defense and 30th on special teams.

Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: Dobbs’ limitations have not stopped Arizona from ranking 15th in offensive EPA per game (31st on defense, fifth on special teams) despite his acquisition less than a month before the season.

3. Tier 1 exemption group

These Tier 1 QBs are not lighting it up every week, but their bodies of work are so strong, a six-game sample doesn’t really affect how we feel one way or the other.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes ranks fifth in EPA per pass play despite ranking 23rd, one spot below Arizona’s Dobbs, in percentage of pass plays gaining more than 15 yards.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Allen ranks third in EPA per pass play and was at his best against the Dolphins in the one game Buffalo needed to win the most. Concerns over consistency are valid, but no reason for panic.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers rank sixth in EPA per pass play and ninth on offense overall despite a rough outing from Herbert against Dallas in Week 6.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow’s calf injury and a schedule packed with tough defenses (Cleveland, Baltimore, Tennessee and Seattle so far) explain why he ranks last in percentage of pass plays gaining more than 15 yards. It’s fair to wonder if this just isn’t his year, but too early to say so definitively.

4. Awaiting next step

These rising young star quarterbacks have not lit it up out of the gates, but there’s still hope they can ascend into the top tier.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Hurts has the same number of turnovers through six games (eight) as he had all last season, but the Eagles still have a top-six offense by EPA, partly on the strength of their rushing.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Eight dropped passes over a two-game period earlier in the season contributed to a slow start. Now, Lawrence is dealing with a knee injury that could affect his availability.

5. Environmental concerns paramount

These teams know what they have and should be fine with it, but their QBs could use more help.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: Cousins leading the league in pass attempts without much volume in the running game and without a consistent defense seems problematic, especially with Justin Jefferson injured.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Injuries at left tackle, running back and receiver have affected Jackson as he transitions to a new approach on offense after missing early offseason work while negotiating a new contract.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: Smith has played three of five games without both starting tackles, increasing the degree of difficulty early in the season.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Prescott was at his best when the Cowboys had a strong ground game. This season, their running backs have hit Prescott-era lows for yards per rush, success rate, EPA per rush and explosive rush rate.

6. Patience, please

These rookies hoped for smoother starts but are just getting started.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: Richardson flashed talent while on the field but will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery after a 162-snap rookie season. The early question is whether he can hold up physically long enough to develop as a passer.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: Changing offensive play callers after an 0-6 start won’t improve the weaponry in Carolina, which seems to be the leading problem.

7. Concerning for various reasons

The first six weeks have amplified question marks these quarterbacks carried into the season.

• Young QB sub-category: Optimism ran high for some of these players before the season, but not so much at the moment

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Six career starts isn’t much to go on, so no final judgments here, but the three seasons Love spent behind Aaron Rodgers raised expectations for a faster start. Perhaps the Packers’ bye will provide a reset.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: Those hoping for a second-year jump have not yet seen it from Pickett or the Steelers’ offense under second-year coordinator Matt Canada. An early schedule featuring tough defenses has not helped.

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: Five interceptions in the past three games renewed skepticism that followed Ridder into the season.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots: Jones’ relative success as a rookie shifts some of the scrutiny to coaching and supporting cast. Either way, the first six games have been concerning.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: There was little evidence Fields had made strides as a passer even before he suffered a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand in Week 6.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants: Two touchdown passes, six interceptions and 28 sacks in five games would raise concerns for anyone.

• Seasoned veteran QB sub-category: I’m fearful these higher-priced quarterbacks have peaked.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: Watson needs reps after a long layoff and isn’t getting them after suffering a shoulder injury. There’s scant evidence so far he can recapture his pre-Cleveland form.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: Sean Payton’s reluctance to open up the playbook has renewed speculation about Wilson’s future in Denver.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: Continuing injuries and diminished production raise concerns.

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: It’s been a slow start for Carr in New Orleans after signing a deal worth $37.5 million annually.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: This was likely going to be Tannehill’s final season with the Titans. Now, a high-ankle sprain clouds his short-term future as well.