The Daily Briefing Friday, October 21, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

DALLAS

DAK is back.  Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

Dak Prescott is back.

The Dallas Cowboys quarterback said he will start Sunday against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium after going through a full practice on Thursday for the first time since fracturing his right thumb in the season opener.

He even made a thumbs-up for the cameras at the end of his media session.

“I did everything. I wasn’t limited by any means,” Prescott said. “There wasn’t a pitch count. I think I threw about 140 balls, something like that. I just made that up, but there was no pitch count. I was full go.”

After throwing about 50 passes before last week’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Prescott took a regeneration day on Monday and was back on the field Tuesday, the players’ off day. After Wednesday’s walk-through, he was held to a 40-pass session with the perimeter players. Coach Mike McCarthy said Prescott looked, “very good” and that the throws would increase Thursday and Friday.

How did he look in practice?

“Like Dak,” wide receiver CeeDee Lamb said. “He’s back.”

With Prescott’s return, the Cowboys believe their offensive production will improve while still focusing on a running game featuring Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

“I think running the football makes things go a little bit easier. Even when it may not be that effective, you’re still wearing on that defense,” Elliott said. “You’re still creating body blows, and then you’re impacting the game and making play-action work. I think it’s important for us to continue to attack defenses on the ground. Why not? You’ve got two great backs and a good O-line, so why don’t you make it easy for Dak?”

Prescott said he may wear some KT Tape on his thumb but considered taking it off in practice and might go without it Sunday. He said he will continue to take measures to help the thumb before and after practices and games.

“I’m not going to just act like I didn’t have a broken bone a few weeks ago,” Prescott said “I am still going to do some things, but for the most part I’m healthy. It feels good. I grabbed the ball. The ball is comfortable in my hand. My grip is great. Honestly, putting it behind me and just focusing on this game plan.”

CAROLINA

David Newton of ESPN.com with his take on the post-McCaffrey Panthers:

After firing their coach and getting rid of McCaffrey and Anderson, is this a complete rebuild for the Panthers?

The Panthers might not call it a complete rebuild because the defense is in good shape for next season. Defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis is the only starter not under contract. But this is a complete rebuild when you consider the Panthers will have a new coaching staff, since Matt Rhule already has been fired; a new quarterback, since Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold aren’t the answer; and a new face of the franchise, since McCaffrey is gone.

On top of that, the receiver room is a mess. DJ Moore is the only legitimate threat now that Robbie Anderson has been traded to the Arizona Cardinals. And none of Carolina’s tight ends are legitimate weapons. Not to mention the offensive line ranks near the bottom of the league in pass win and run win rate. One could argue 2022 first-round pick Ikem Ekwonu has had growing pains thus far at left tackle. He might be better suited for the right side or at guard. So call this what you want, but it’s a rebuild. — David Newton

How does this set up interim coach Steve Wilks?

Wilks never got a fair shake in his one season (2018) as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals because he didn’t have the talent to compete and coached with mostly an inherited staff. He has the same situation now with Carolina. And now he loses his most valuable offensive asset. McCaffrey was his offense, accounting for 75% of the team’s yardage in Sunday’s 24-10 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Wilks has to replace him with second-year back Chuba Hubbard and journeyman D’Onta Foreman.

The offense is already rated last in the NFL in total yards and in third-down percentage, and former XFL quarterback PJ Walker is starting his second straight game Sunday against Tampa Bay while Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold recover from ankle injuries. Owner David Tepper said Wilks would be considered for the full-time job if he does an exceptional job the remainder of this year. Instead, it appears he has been set up for failure once again. This feels like a total tank to build for the future. — Newton

TAMPA BAY

QB TOM BRADY heard the criticism of comparing an NFL season to a military deployment.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady opened his Thursday weekly news conference by apologizing for a comment he made in his “Let’s Go!” podcast with Jim Gray on Monday, comparing the NFL season to military deployment.

“Earlier this week, I made a statement about playing football and the military and it was a very poor choice of words,” Brady said before taking questions. “I just want to express that to any sentiments out there that people may have taken it a certain way. So I apologize.”

On the podcast, Brady told Gray and Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant, “I almost look at like a football season like you’re going away on deployment in the military, and it’s like, ‘Man, here I go again.’ There’s only one way to do it. And I think Jim, we’ve talked from time to time just about how do you enjoy the certain moments of it? The reality is you can really only be authentic to yourself, right?

“Whenever you may say, Oh man, I want to, you know, make sure I spend a little more time doing this — when it comes down to it, your competitiveness takes over and as much as you want to have this playful balance with the work balance, you’re going to end up doing exactly what you’ve always done, which is why you are who you are. You’re going to go, How the f— do I get it done? You know, What do I got to do to get it done?”

Some members of the military community took to social media to express their disappointment.

Brady has shown support for the military in the past, including a 2018 trip to visit U.S. Army and Air Force troops at Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar.

When asked Thursday if he wanted to further clarify what he meant by comparing the grind of an NFL season to deployment, Brady said, “To be honest, I don’t really want to expand on it too much. But I have a tremendous amount of gratitude to everyone who served. In the end, we play a game, and the military is defending our country. It’s two very different things and I shouldn’t have made the comparison.”

ARIZONA

The Cardinals won a home game Thursday – for the first time in a year.

They also ended their surprising NFL-longest streak of 87 games without a 40+ point game.

The lead from Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com is about a squabble:

Both Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray downplayed a heated exchange that cameras caught in the second quarter Thursday night following their 42-34 win over the New Orleans Saints that snapped an eight-game home losing streak.

Cameras showed Murray walking to the sideline, repeatedly mouthing “Calm the f— down” to Kingsbury with 2:32 left in the second quarter after Arizona called a timeout to reset its next play.

“The clock was running down and we couldn’t have got off the play that we were trying to run,” Murray said. “So, it was, I guess it’s my fault. I’ll take it.”

Murray continued to have words for Kingsbury as he walked to the sideline, where wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins acted as a peacekeeper and got in between the quarterback and the coach.

“He’s real animated over there on the sidelines sometimes,” Murray said.

When asked if Kingsbury was yelling in his ear through his helmet’s headset, Murray said no.

“I just see the antics,” Murray said.

Kingsbury called it a difference of opinion before trying to bring levity to the situation.

“He said I didn’t look good on TV acting that fiery,” Kingsbury quipped. “I don’t know, guess it’s a Gen Z thing. ‘You’re on TV so calm down.’

“I like showing emotion.”

Murray said Kingsbury is “usually chill … until Sunday.”

Cardinals rookie running back Keaontay Ingram scored from the 2-yard-line on the next play and then running back Eno Benjamin, who rushed for a career-high 92 yards, ran in the 2-point conversion to tie the score at 14.

“We’re good,” Murray said. “We’re going to make it right. We ended up scoring so that was good. But, yeah, that’s all I was saying, just chill out.

“Doesn’t faze me or I don’t think it fazes him. We’re just trying to win. In the moment type of thing. After that we’re good.”

Said Hopkins: “Both of those guys want to win. I love to see that. Honestly, I love being a part of a team that two people are dedicated and that focused on winning and obviously you’re going to butt heads. I’m not married but from what I hear that’s like a marriage.”

That touchdown was the beginning of a 102-second streak that changed the direction of the game. The Cardinals intercepted Saints quarterback Andy Dalton on back-to-back drives and returned them both for touchdowns to take a 14-point lead at halftime.

The first interception was by cornerback Marco Wilson, who grabbed the ball out of midair after wide receiver Marquez Callaway bobbled it. He returned it 38 yards for the touchdown. Cardinals linebacker Isaiah Simmons picked off Dalton with a one-handed grab on the Saints’ next offensive series and sprinted to the end zone for a 56-yard touchdown.

“That was for everybody out there who said I can’t catch,” Simmons said. “That one-handed right there, remembering what my coach told me on that playcall. He’s been emphasizing exactly what I did, so being able to execute it correctly is nice. Once I caught it, I knew it was go-time and I didn’t think anybody was going to catch me — I knew [Chris] Olave was fast as hell but I think he was on the other side of the field, so I knew I was good.”

By time Simmons scored, just 1 minute and 42 seconds of game time had elapsed and the Cardinals had put 22 points on the board to take a 28-14 lead at halftime. Their 28 points nearly matched the 29 points Arizona had scored in total in the first half in its first six games of the season.

Arizona also had a third interception when cornerback Antonio Hamilton, in his second game back from suffering second-degree burns on his feet in August, picked off Dalton in the end zone late in the first quarter.

Thursday marked the return of Hopkins, who missed the first six games of this season after violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. He also missed the last five games of last season with an MCL injury.

In his first game in 311 days, Hopkins had 103 yards on 10 catches after he was targeted 14 times. It was his fourth time hitting both marks in the same game as a Cardinal and the first time since Oct. 25, 2020.

“Spent a lot of time in the offseason preparing for this moment,” Hopkins said. “Obviously, I knew what I was up against being out six games.

“The main goal is to win. So, for me, if I had 10 catches and 10 yards if we would have won a game I would still be very [ecstatic].”

Thursday’s win was the first time the Cardinals won at home in 361 days, a feat Murray called “crazy.”

They snapped their losing streak thanks to 42 points, the most they’ve scored under Kingsbury, who was hired in 2019, and the most since Week 17 of the 2016 season.

“Excited for the guys, no doubt,” Kingsbury said. “Definitely been something they’ve had to answer about for a long time and especially to do it coming off a couple [of] losses and going into a longer time off for the game, I think it came at a good time.”

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers, who already do not have a first round pick in the 2023 draft as part of what they gave up for QB TREY LANCE, spend more draft capital for RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY.  David Newton at ESPN.com:

The San Francisco 49ers are sending second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-round pick in 2024 to the Carolina Panthers for star running back Christian McCaffrey, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday night.

The deal gives San Francisco the offensive playmaker needed to compete for a Super Bowl. It also gives McCaffrey a chance to be on a winning team for the first time since his rookie season in 2017 when Carolina went 11-5 and return to the Bay Area where he starred in college at Stanford.

When healthy, McCaffrey is one of the best dual threats in the NFL. In 2019, he became only the third player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in the same season. His 670 yards from scrimmage — a team-leading 393 yards rushing and team-leading 33 catches for 277 yards — this season rank fourth in the NFL.

“I’m forever grateful for all of the people who have helped make these past 5 1/2 years so special for me,” McCaffrey posted to Twitter on Friday morning. “Thank you from the bottom of my heart. Carolina, I will always love you.”

Injuries have been the biggest issue for the former Stanford star. He missed 23 of 33 games during the 2020 and 2021 seasons after being injury-free his first three NFL seasons. He spent time this past offseason talking to Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk, who had some of his most productive seasons beginning in Year 6, about what workout and diet practices could help keep him on the field.

So far McCaffrey has avoided injuries, playing 85% of Carolina’s snaps.

Speculation the Panthers (1-5) might move on from McCaffrey, 26, began after coach Matt Rhule was fired the Monday after the team fell to 1-4 with a 37-15 loss to the 49ers. According to a non-Panthers front-office source, Carolina was initially asking for two first-round draft picks.

The Panthers announced the move Thursday night and thanked McCaffrey in a tweet. Carolina did not disclose compensation from San Francisco.

Financially, the deal makes sense for Carolina. McCaffrey, the eighth pick of the 2017 draft, is under contract through the 2025 season with a base salary of $11 million in 2022 and 2023 and $12 million in 2025. He has cap hits of his $19,550,750 in 2023 and 2024, and $15,450,750 in 2025.

The trade also makes financial sense for the 49ers this season. McCaffrey has a base salary of $1,035,000 in 2022 after his contract was restructured in December 2021. Between the $26,938,000 dead-money hit the Panthers have on the books in 2022 and his 2022 and 2023 cap hits, Carolina will have a 2023 cap savings of $1,198,500.

The Panthers also have received multiple trade calls on their other top playmaker, wide receiver DJ Moore, but the team considers Moore a foundational piece to the roster long term, sources told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

What helped the 49ers facilitate the trade was their six extra third-round compensatory draft picks granted to them for losing Robert Saleh to the New York Jets, Mike McDaniel to the Miami Dolphins and Martin Mayhew to the Washington Commanders in recent offseasons.

The move finally gives McCaffrey a chance to play for the 49ers and coach Kyle Shanahan, a pairing that nearly happened when McCaffrey entered the 2017 NFL draft. San Francisco held the No. 2 pick in that draft, and Shanahan has said on multiple occasions that he strongly considered McCaffrey with that initial first-round pick of his tenure before opting for defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, McCaffrey’s Stanford teammate, after a trade down to No. 3.

What’s more, the Shanahan and McCaffrey families have long been connected dating to the nine seasons McCaffrey’s father, Ed, played for Shanahan’s father, Mike, with the Denver Broncos.

McCaffrey went for 104 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against the Niners in San Francisco’s 37-15 win against the Panthers on Oct. 9. Before that game, Shanahan said McCaffrey looked like he was back to himself after dealing with injuries in recent years.

“McCaffrey’s healthy,” Shanahan said. “And he looks the same as he used to. He is a problem.”

McCaffrey now joins a talented skill position group that also includes receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle. But the 49ers hope McCaffrey can help jump start an offense that has disappointed through the first six weeks.

The Niners enter their Week 7 game against the Kansas City Chiefs ranked 22nd in offensive points scored (18 per game) and 18th in yards per game (340.2).

As for the 2023 NFL draft, San Francisco has now dealt most of its top picks away. It has no first-round choice as it goes to the Dolphins as the final piece of the trade up to draft quarterback Trey Lance in 2021. The earliest selection the Niners will have in that draft is the third round.

The 49ers were slated to have three picks in that round because they own a pair of third-round compensatory picks. They no longer have one of those picks, or any picks in the first, second or fourth rounds.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on the compensation:

The 49ers have borrowed Les Snead’s catch phrase.

To land running back Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers, the 49ers sent four draft picks to Carolina. Per multiple reports, the Panthers get from San Francisco a second-round, third-round, and fourth-round pick in 2023, along with a fifth-round pick in 2024.

It’s a significant haul for a team that is clearly in rebuilding mode, and it gives the 49ers a player who can boost the offense dramatically, right away.

It also means it’s not a short-term move for the 49ers, who inherit the balance of McCaffrey’s four-year, $64 million extension. He gets the rest of his prorated $1.035 million salary this year, plus $11.8 million in 2023, $11.8 million in 2024, and $12 million in 2025.

The 49ers could, and quite possibly will, work out a new deal with McCaffrey, at some point.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that McCaffrey “likely” will play this weekend against the Chiefs, in the red-zone package. Per multiple reports, the Rams were also pursuing McCaffrey.

After losing out on quarterback Matthew Stafford after the 2020 season, the 49ers have turned the tables on the “eff them picks” Rams. From McCaffrey’s perspective, he’s better off with the 49ers. In L.A., offensive line issues would make it very hard for him to provide the kind of return his new team will need in order to justify the overall investment.

Jeff Howe of The Athletic with instant analysis of the trade:

Why they made the move

Let’s start in Charlotte.

After head coach Matt Rhule was fired last week, the Panthers were not actively shopping McCaffrey. But would they listen if teams called? That was never in doubt.

And teams called, as they tend to do when a player of McCaffrey’s caliber can potentially be had.

The Niners, obviously, presented the most convincing offer. The Rams were also involved and remained in the process until its late stages. The Bills, who showed offseason interest in McCaffrey, didn’t appear to be serious suitors at this point.

The Panthers are rebuilding, and it’s been a while since a team shaped its roster around a running back. By recalibrating the books and moving on from McCaffrey, the Panthers are working toward a better cap situation for their next coach.

McCaffrey, 26, is one of the league’s premier running backs, but injuries have mounted. He only played 10 of 33 games from 2020-21, and the Panthers managed his workload in training camp and the preseason despite a clean bill of health.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have dealt with a rash of running back injuries since head coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017. He runs a respected offensive system that is predicated upon a solid ground game, but Shanahan’s 49ers have never had a 1,000-yard rusher, primarily due to injuries. They’ve drafted four running backs in that span (Joe Williams, 2017; Trey Sermon, 2020; Elijah Mitchell 2020; Tyrion Davis-Price, 2021) and all but Mitchell have been outrushed by two of their quarterback draft selections (Trey Lance 235 yards; C.J. Beathard 234 yards).

So it’s no wonder why the 49ers redirected toward a more proven commodity. Since 2017, McCaffrey ranks 12th in rushing yards (3,980) and fourth in yards from scrimmage (7,272) while playing for a team that has the eighth fewest victories in that stretch.

Despite a season-ending injury to Lance, the 49ers are set on maximizing their push toward a Super Bowl during Jimmy Garoppolo’s final season under contract. And if they overcome their run of injuries in time for a playoff push, this roster still has enough talent to make a run at a championship.

Trade grade (Panthers): A-minus

They didn’t get the first-rounder they coveted, but this was more than a respectable haul. The alternative was waiting another week or two before the Nov. 1 trade deadline to see if another team upped the offer, but the Panthers would have risked a McCaffrey injury or even a handful of other backs on expiring contracts hitting the trade block.

McCaffrey can still be a great player when healthy. Worst-case scenario for the Panthers, he explodes for the Niners for two or three years and never wears down. But even in that scenario, are the Panthers a certainty to return to the playoffs in that time frame?

They maximized the value of their asset in the middle of another lost season. Their No. 1 objective in the offseason — almost certainly at the draft — will be finding a franchise quarterback who can reshape the direction of the franchise. After that, they need to put enough pieces around him to accelerate the rebuild.

This trade laid the foundation for those goals.

Trade grade (49ers): B-minus

If McCaffrey stays healthy, he makes the 49ers (3-3) significantly more dangerous on offense.

They’re a running team at their core, and the combination of McCaffrey, wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle will create plenty of issues for defenses. Shanahan will concoct a creative plan for that group to thrive with Garoppolo.

For most other teams, a midseason blockbuster trade for a running back would draw a lower grade, but the Shanahan effect is real. Still, it’s on him to make sure they reach the value of the move.

Looking ahead to 2023, McCaffrey will also take a ton of pressure off Lance, as he looks to find his footing as an NFL quarterback.

But the 49ers didn’t give up this haul for 2023. McCaffrey won’t be enough to overcome the slew of defensive injuries if that group doesn’t return in full force. And will he solve the lack of production for Samuel and Kittle?

The 49ers have high aspirations and the talent to meet them, no question. But they’re off to an inconsistent start because Garoppolo’s offseason was wiped out, offensive mistakes, defensive injuries and a team that needed to reset its focus when Lance went down.

They’re counting on all these things to go right in the coming months — and they absolutely can — along with McCaffrey’s success to regain their status as contenders. If it doesn’t all come together, however, the move will be questioned.

Going all-in is admirable. But going all in at running back in 2022 opens the door for second-guessing, which is why the grade rates at just above the fringe.

SEATTLE

The Seahawks have new life, thanks to an outstanding rookie class.  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com on six key contributors:

Cornerback Tariq Woolen is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with four.

Coby Bryant has forced that many fumbles in five games at nickelback.

Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas both rank in the top half among starting offensive tackles in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate.

And now running back Kenneth Walker III is getting in on the action, combining for 198 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks.

How’s that for a start for the Seattle Seahawks’ rookie class?

“That rookie class, they didn’t miss,” quarterback Geno Smith said after the Seahawks’ win over the Arizona Cardinals this past Sunday. “They’re contributing, and you can see them growing every single week … And for those guys to be young rookies and to be stepping up the way that they are, I think it speaks volumes to them personally as players and then to the organization and front office and scouts for selecting those guys.”

General manager John Schneider, coach Pete Carroll, and their respective staffs drafted what could be a franchise-altering collection of players. After a string of lean drafts, the early returns on their 2022 class suggest the Seahawks may have struck gold the way they did in 2010, 2011 and 2012, when they drafted the nucleus of their two Super Bowl teams.

It isn’t just Woolen, Bryant, Cross, Lucas and Walker who have been regular contributors. Second-round pick Boye Mafe (one sack, 18 tackles) has earned more snaps in the outside linebacker rotation, which makes it six members of the nine-man class who are either starting or filling significant roles for the 3-3 Seahawks, who play at the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox).

There were obvious openings on both sides of the ball, and defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt has been especially willing to play young players. Not even Carroll or Schneider thought they’d be contributing this much, this soon.

“It’s better than we expected,” Carroll said. “It’s what we had hoped for.”

Woolen has surprisingly been the undisputed star of the group. The fifth-round pick was considered a high-upside project with 4.26 speed and a 6-foot-4 frame but had only two full seasons at cornerback under his belt at a non-Power 5 school, having begun his college career as a receiver at UTSA.

Woolen is showing all that potential right away. His interceptions have come in four straight games, making him only the third rookie to pull off that feat since 2000. He’s made impressive plays on all four picks, undercutting two crossing routes, jumping a comeback route, and leaping to snag a Kyler Murray deep ball on Sunday. Per Next Gen Stats, Woolen’s 36.9 passer rating allowed as the nearest defender is second-best in the NFL (minimum of 25 targets).

Woolen blocked a field goal in Week 2 that Seattle returned for a touchdown and also has a pair of fumble recoveries, the latest coming against Arizona. His performance in that game earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.

The fumble Woolen recovered Sunday was the fourth this season caused by Bryant, who leads the league in that category. Woolen remains Seattle’s primary nickleback even with Justin Coleman back to full health. And like Woolen, Bryant appears to have shaken the penalty problem that dogged him early in the season. The win over Arizona may have been his best game in terms of coverage and tackling.

“It’s special,” veteran safety Quandre Diggs said. “It’s like seeing your little brother shine. For me, those are really like my little brothers … Those guys are getting after it, and they have to continue doing it. We have 17 games. We’re only in Week 6.”

Lucas ranks 15th among all starting tackles in PBWR while Cross ranks 32nd. They became only the third pair of rookie tackles since 1970 to start a team’s opener, according to Elias. It was a given that Cross would be Seattle’s left tackle from the jump when the Seahawks drafted him ninth overall with one of the first-round picks they acquired from Denver in the Russell Wilson trade. But as a third-round pick, Lucas wasn’t necessarily expected to start immediately on the right side.

Neither were expected to make this smooth of a transition from their pass-heavy college offenses and Mike Leach systems that never asked them to play from a three-point stance. They’ve handled that challenge well enough for the Seahawks to rank fourth in yards per carry and 11th overall in rushing.

Their run game didn’t miss a beat against Arizona. In their first full game without Rashaad Penny, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 5 that elevated Walker to Seattle’s RB1, Walker ran for 97 yards and another score on 21 carries in his first start.

“He’s the real deal in our eyes,” Carroll said.

The Seahawks drafted Walker in the second round knowing that starter Chris Carson’s football future was unsure, and that they couldn’t count on Penny to stay healthy. But it was one Seahawks’ pick this year that drew objection, with some believing that No. 41 overall is too early to select a running back.

Hard to argue with that pick now. Or any of them, for that matter.

“They are the future,” safety Ryan Neal said. “That’s all that I can say, they are the future. So it’s exciting as hell to play with them.”

BALTIMORE

CB MARLON HUMPHREY channels his QB AARON RODGERS.  Jamison Hensley ofESPN.com:

Repeated fourth-quarter meltdowns have led to one of the wildest starts in Baltimore Ravens history.

Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said Thursday that the sting of another late-game collapse led to him referencing a quote often attributed to Albert Einstein after a 24-20 loss to the New York Giants.

“That was just frustration amongst some of the guys,” Humphrey said. “We were all talking like, ‘Man, we kind of keep doing the same thing at the end of games. Not finishing games.'”

The Ravens (3-3) are the only team in NFL history to hold a double-digit lead in NFL history in the first six games of a season and not have a winning record, according to research by the Elias Sports Bureau. On Sunday, Baltimore led 20-10 in the fourth quarter only to watch the Giants score two touchdowns in the final six minutes.

Two hours after the loss, Humphrey tweeted: “Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. -Albert Einstein”

The Ravens have been outscored 64-22 in the fourth quarter. That 42-point margin is the worst fourth-quarter differential in the NFL this season.

Humphrey said the players approached coach John Harbaugh about changing some small details, including checks on defense. But the two-time Pro Bowl defender believes the best way to overcome their late-game problems is not to overthink them.

“We all want to make those plays at the end,” Humphrey said. “We all want it, but when we spoke in the team meeting, I was like, ‘We actually need to relax some.‘ I think that’s kind of been the problem. We’re pressing so hard that it’s almost doing a reverse effect.”

In Lamar Jackson’s first four seasons as a starting quarterback, Baltimore was 31-3 in games in which it led by at least 10 points. Now, the Ravens have matched that number of losses with double-digit leads in the first six games this season.

In the fourth quarter this season, Jackson has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions. His QBR of 28 ranks 28th in the league.

Humphrey went up to Jackson during a practice this week and told him, “We’re ready for you to lead us.”

PITTSBURGH

Both teams will have freshly de-concussed QBs when the Steelers play the Dolphins Sunday night.  Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com:

Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett cleared concussion protocol and is in line to start Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, the team announced Friday morning.

Pickett sustained a concussion on a hit in the third quarter of the Steelers’ 20-18 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coach Mike Tomlin said Pickett would start against the Dolphins if he cleared protocol, and he didn’t expect the concussion to hinder his practice availability this week.

“Oftentimes, someone’s in the protocol and they’ve got complete clearance in terms of full participation, so you let them participate,” Tomlin said Tuesday. “Sometimes it’s limited, and you limit their participation. When it’s limited, obviously, it provides additional opportunities of reps for others.

“He’s been given full clearance from a participation standpoint relative to his position.”

True to Tomlin’s word, the rookie fully practiced on Wednesday and Thursday, taking all of his usual first-team reps.

INDIANAPOLIS

Jim Irsay is no longer a diplomat, if he ever was.  Mike Florio on Irsay unbound:

Jim Irsay has reached an important point in his tenure as an NFL owner. He no longer cares about how his words are received by others.

That attitude publicly manifested itself on Tuesday, with Irsay’s stunning tirade against Commanders owner Daniel Snyder. Privately, Irsay spoke his mind about a different issue.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Irsay delivered pointed comments behind closed doors regarding the handling of the St. Louis relocation litigation. From complaining (accurately) about poorly-drafted documents that gave Rams owner Stan Kroenke a stronger argument to foist responsibility for the settlement onto his partners to questioning the legal strategy regarding the handling of a case that resulted in a payment of nearly $800 million, Irsay once again said what plenty of others have been thinking.

Irsay’s ire could be increased based on the information contained in a new report from Ben Fischer of Sports Business Journal. Per Fischer, the details of the deal that results in Kroenke supposedly shouldering the majority of the settlement include the ability to recover roughly $283 million by retaining ticket revenue that ordinarily would be shared with the league. The arrangement lasts for 30 years, which makes the present value of that amount FAR less than $283 million.

But to the extent that someone with the Rams felt compelled to crow about a caveat that reduces Kreonke’s out-of-pocket expense, pointing out that specific detail does nothing to bolster the effort to persuade interested parties that Kroenke finagled a far better outcome than previously disclosed.

It’s unclear whether Irsay knew about this wrinkle. If he didn’t, maybe he’ll have something to say about it.

MIAMI

With the return of QB TUA TAGOVAILOA pending, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.comasks himself some questions:

What were the concussion protocol steps Tagovailoa had to clear to return to the field?

Tagovailoa went through a five-step process before returning to the field after sustaining a concussion. This is what it looks like, paraphrasing from the return-to-play portion of the protocol:

Phase 1: Rest, and then limit — or avoid — physical and cognitive activities if they aggravate symptoms. Introduction of limited stretching and balancing work and moving to light aerobic exercise.

Phase 2: Gradual progress toward cardiovascular exercise, dynamic stretching and more balance work. Neurocognitive and balance testing can be administered. If the results are interpreted as back to baseline (pre-concussion) levels, Phase 2 is satisfied.

Phase 3: Increased cardio exercise to mimic sport-specific activity, along with supervised strength training. The player can practice with the team, doing sports-specific exercises, for 30 minutes or less.

Phase 4: The player can advance to non-contact football activities such as throwing, catching and running. Another round of neurocognitive and balance testing is administered to confirm results remain at baseline.

Phase 5: A club physician must clear the player for full football activity, including contact. Then, an independent neurological consultant (INC), assigned to the team by joint agreement between the NFL and NFLPA, must concur with the team physician that the concussion has resolved. At that point, the player is clear to play in his team’s next game. — Seifert

When was Tagovailoa allowed to participate in all football activities, and what has he done on the practice field?

Tagovailoa was cleared to participate in football-specific activities on Oct. 12 and fully cleared concussion protocol on Oct. 15. In the three practices before he was cleared, Tagovailoa took individual reps during position drills but ceded starter and backup reps to Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater, respectively, during team drills. McDaniel said he was impressed by how intently Tagovailoa was able to focus throughout practice despite his hands-off role.

This week, Tagovailoa returned to the starter’s workload.

What have Tagovailoa’s teammates seen from him in the past two weeks?

Tagovailoa has been present throughout the Dolphins’ facility for the past two weeks, in meetings and in the locker room — where teammates say he has been his typical self.

“Just to have him back out there, his energy, his leadership, the way that he’s able to have fun playing this game throughout it all, man, it’s just amazing,” wide receiver Tyreek Hill said. “It’s always fun to have your brother back out there on the field.”

Tight end Mike Gesicki said Tagovailoa took plenty of mental reps while he was out and said he “didn’t skip a beat” when he returned to practice.

What should expectations be for Tagovailoa’s return?

McDaniel said he doesn’t expect to see any rust from Tagovailoa and joked the left-handed quarterback didn’t start throwing with his right hand during his time away from the field. The Dolphins can’t afford to ease him back in terms of a simplified game plan — not on the heels of a three-game losing streak while the rest of the AFC East kept winning.

The Steelers own the league’s third-worst pass defense through six games, so Miami’s path to victory will likely include Tagovailoa throwing the ball frequently.

NEW YORK JETS

A three-game winning streak – and WR ELIJAH MOORE decides to make a trade request after one game in which he is not targeted. Antwan Staley of the New York Daily News:

Just days after voicing his displeasure with the role in the team’s offense, Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore is looking to move on

According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Moore has asked the Jets to trade him. Moore has been frustrated with his role and the number of targets in the team’s offense.

Rapoport says the Jets have no plans to trade Moore at this time. He is the second Jets player this year that has asked for a trade. During the preseason, wide receiver Denzel Mims also requested a trade, but the Jets did not accommodate his wishes.

Moore did not practice on Thursday as Jets coach Robert Saleh told reporters the second-year player was excused from practice to deal with a family matter. This was after Moore sent a series of cryptic tweets right as practice began.

 “God, I need direction,” Moore sent in a now-deleted tweet. He also tweeted, “God makes no mistakes…I trust u through it AllllllI.”

After the Jets 27-10 victory over the Packers late Sunday night, Moore responded to a tweet that said he had zero targets in the game.

 “If I say what I really wanna say… I’ll be the selfish guy…we winning,” Moore said. “Grateful! Huge blessing! All I ever wanted. Bittersweet for me, but I’ll be solid. So I’ll just stay quiet. Just know I don’t understand either.”

This season through six games has been a difficult one for Moore. He has just 16 catches for 203 yards and zero touchdowns. In his rookie season, Moore finished with 43 receptions for 538 yards and five touchdowns.

But he has been a forgotten man in the Jets offense with the additions of Garrett Wilson, along with tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah. Not to mention, the Jets have been focusing their offense around Breece Hall and the running game.

“These guys are competitors,” Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said. “I’ve coached that position before for a couple of years and been in that room. You want those guys to be ultra-competitive and want the ball. Ultimately, we are going to do what’s best to score and win football games.

“He’s a big part of that. It’s a testament to the guys. We have five guys with over 200 yards receiving right now, on top of that, the running backs doing what they’re doing and the touchdowns that they got. How many times have we been tackled at the one-on-a-pass play?

“Guys are competitors, they want to contribute as much as possible and we are going to continue to do whatever we think is best for this offense.”

What also has kept Moore from getting more receptions recently has been the return of Zach Wilson from a bone bruise and meniscus injuries. In the three games with backup Joe Flacco starting under center, Moore caught 12 passes for 139 yards. Since Wilson has returned, Moore has just four receptions for 91 yards in three games.

“We’ve had open dialogues,” LaFleur said. “But we are going to keep it in-house.”

The Jets have been a surprise team in the AFC so far this season. Moore’s said he wasn’t going to be a distraction to the team, but this has become a bit of one with Gang Green 4-2 and heading to Denver for a showdown against the Broncos — who have the third-best defense in the NFL (290.3 yards per game) — this weekend.

“I love little bro,” Jets wide receiver Corey Davis said. “Great player, great character, great attitude. He just wants to help us win.

“I’m going to stay with him. I love little bro. He will be alright though.”

Robert Saleh says that Moore won’t get his wish, but he will be sidelined for Week 7 in Denver.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Jets say they won’t play disgruntled wide receiver Elijah Moore on Sunday against the Broncos, but they also won’t grant Moore’s trade request.

Jets head coach Robert Saleh said today that Moore isn’t participating in team meetings and won’t play on Sunday but will be part of the team starting on Monday and going forward.

 “We’ve had our discussions with Elijah. Trading him is not an option,” Saleh said. “Elijah will not play this week. He is in the building, he is excused from meetings, but he’s going through a workout. . . . He’ll re-join the team on Monday.”

Teams often say they won’t trade a player only to change their minds when the right offer comes along, or when the player becomes such a distraction that the team no longer wants to deal with him. So it wouldn’t be a shock if Moore does, in fact, get traded.

But for now, Saleh wants to try to make things work with a talented playmaker whom the Jets selected in the second round of last year’s draft. And so the Jets’ stance is that Moore will sit out Sunday and then get a fresh start on Monday.

The line in Denver is down to 1 in most places (it opened around 3), but it looks like the Jets will go off Sunday as an underdog for the 7^th straight week.

THIS AND THAT

#3 IN THE AFC

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com concedes the two top spots in the AFC to some combination of Buffalo and Kansas City.  But there are a lot of candidates for #3 (technically a team in either the AFC East or AFC West can’t get the #3 seed as a Wild Card – but we see where he is going).  Much, much edited for space:

Sunday’s game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs might not have been the sort of classic shootout many fans expected. What we saw instead, though, was a closely fought battle between two excellent teams. I’m comfortable saying the Bills are the best team in the AFC (if not the league as a whole), but the Chiefs aren’t far behind. Along with the Philadelphia Eagles, they seem like a clear top tier at the top of the NFL.

I don’t think many people would argue with that assessment after six weeks. When it comes to the AFC, though, who’s next? If the Bills and Chiefs are the conference’s two best teams, who’s No. 3? I spent a couple of minutes thinking about an answer and realized I probably needed to write out an entire column to figure things out.

None of these teams are perfect, but one of them has to be third:

Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

On a play-by-play basis, the Ravens likely have the best quantitative case for being the AFC’s No. 3. In fact, DVOA has the Ravens as the third-best team in the entire NFL — behind the Bills and Eagles but ahead of the Chiefs, who rank seventh. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranks Baltimore as the conference’s fourth-best team, trailing the big two and the Bengals, who moved ahead of them only this week.

– – –

WPA isn’t a perfect metric for what we’re trying to understand here, but it’s a reasonable reflection of what’s going wrong in Baltimore. History tells us that the odds, generally, are in favor of the Ravens figuring things out and locking up games in the fourth quarter moving forward. I also would have said that before the Giants game last week, though, and you saw what happened there.

New York Jets (4-2)

Right now, depending on how you slice it, the Jets have a credible case as the AFC’s third-best team. They’re tied for the second-best record in the conference behind the Bills. The Chiefs are with them at 4-2. And in comparison with the Chargers — the other 4-2 team — the Jets have a better point differential (plus-15 vs. minus-11). They also just pulled off one of the largest upsets of the season by blowing out the Packers 27-10 in Green Bay.

I’ll admit I wasn’t taking the Jets seriously before last week. It’s true they were 3-2, but their three wins had come over teams fielding backup quarterbacks. Jacoby Brissett played the entire game for the Browns, while the Steelers swapped out Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett at halftime of their loss to New York. The Dolphins, already starting backup Teddy Bridgewater, were forced to turn to third-stringer Skylar Thompson after Bridgewater was injured in the first quarter. Getting the opposing team to play second- and third-string quarterbacks is a great way to win games, but it’s probably not sustainable.

Well, Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP, and the Jets just held him (and a garbage-time series from Jordan Love) to 10 points on 13 drives. The Packers had previous struggles on offense, but that’s the sort of defensive performance you can’t write off as an aberration or a product of overmatched competition. The Jets deserve a closer look.

In looking through their defensive performance, there’s a clear philosophy. General manager Joe Douglas comes from Philadelphia, where the Eagles built deep defensive lines in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. Coach Robert Saleh’s most significant role before joining the Jets was in San Francisco, where the 49ers built a deep defensive line in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. There’s a throughline here.

Sure enough, the Jets have invested heavily in their defensive line, and we’re seeing Saleh trust that line to get home.

– – –

The glaring concern remains at quarterback. The Jets are 3-0 with second-year passer Zach Wilson, but it’s difficult to argue he has contributed much to those victories. He has completed just 56% of his passes, and while he’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, much of that came on a 79-yard completion to Hall off a totally blown Dolphins coverage. Those yards count, of course, but he can’t count on an easy 79-yard gain once a month.

To be fair, Wilson has also been let down by drops, as his 5.3% drop rate is above the league average.

After being one of the worst teams in 2020 and 2021, they look to be about league average right now. That’s an enormous step forward. FPI gives them a 52.2% shot of making it to the postseason, which would be their first berth since 2010. I’m just not sure I believe enough in Wilson to peg them as the third-best team in the conference.

Miami Dolphins (3-3)

The case is simple for the Dolphins. They started the season with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback, and in the games he finished, they are 3-0. With Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson forced to finish games because of injuries to each of Miami’s three passers, they are 0-3. Tagovailoa is set to return against the Steelers on Sunday, so they should re-ascend toward the top of the AFC. Easy enough.

If you look at who the Dolphins have beat, the case might be even stronger. Mike McDaniel’s team is the only one to beat the Bills this season, holding Josh Allen under 6.4 yards per pass attempt in a 21-19 victory. The Dolphins also beat the Patriots and Ravens, both of whom would be candidates for the third spot. They lost to the Bengals and Jets, who are also in the mix, but that was with one combined half of Tagovailoa.

Even without Tagovailoa, the offense hasn’t been the problem.

The other elements of the roster have been disappointing. The defense, which struggled badly in the first half of last season before improving after Halloween, ranks 25th in DVOA.

– – –

Miami still has Xavien Howard, and it can call upon former first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene, though he hadn’t played a 2022 defensive snap before Week 5. Things will get better when Jones and Kohou return, but the Dolphins are in a vulnerable position with the Steelers and Lions coming up over the next two weeks. Both teams have deep receiving corps.

Any defense featuring Howard is going to thrive on takeaways, and regardless of what has been happening for the Dolphins at quarterback, it’s tough to see them winning many games without generating turnovers. They had a turnover margin of plus-two during their 3-0 start to the season, but since then, they’ve posted a minus-seven. The Steelers have won both of their games in which they protected the football and lost all four games when they turned the ball over at least once. That’s a good place to start for Miami if it wants to get back on a winning track.

The Dolphins also have been dismal on special teams, where they rank dead last by DVOA and 28th by FPI. Veteran kicker Jason Sanders has missed an extra point and all three of his tries from 50-plus yards, while they allowed Devin Duvernay to take a kickoff 103 yards to the house in Week 2. Miami’s return game ranks last in yards per punt return (2.3) and 29th in yards per kickoff return (18.6). Special teams alone wouldn’t be enough to drag down the Dolphins if their defense was playing better, but Sanders & Co. haven’t been helping at the margins.

Tagovailoa’s return should give the team an emotional boost and improve its quarterback play. He posted an 80.0 QBR before suffering a concussion in Week 4, which still ranks No. 1 in the league. Even if the Dolphins can’t count on him to be an MVP candidate for the entire campaign, it’s clear he is going to be better with the added help he has around him on offense.

Can these guys stay on the field, though? Offensive tackle Terron Armstead, the team’s marquee free-agent signing this offseason, left the Vikings game because of a toe injury and might not play this week. Star wideout Jaylen Waddle has been limited by a shoulder injury. Hill isn’t 100%, though he’s still playing at a superstar level. Tagovailoa was dealing with a back issue before suffering a concussion.

Miami has the talent to beat anybody, but with four games to go before a much-needed bye, can it get back to its winning ways with a depleted roster?

Tennessee Titans (3-2)

Titans fans might argue their team should inherit this position by default, given that they finished the 2021 regular season ahead of both the Bills and Chiefs. Tennessee got off to an 0-2 start and looked to be in serious trouble after getting blown out by the Bills, but in typical Titans fashion, they’ve gotten back on track by winning three straight close games. They could easily be 4-1 or 1-4.

The bright spot has been better performances from star running back Derrick Henry.

– – –

This is basically the 2021 version of Henry, who was gobbling up record levels of volume with average efficiency. The best version is the one we saw over the two prior seasons, who received slightly less volume while remaining incredibly efficient and averaging north of 5.0 yards per carry, but the Titans will be happy to see even league-average work from him as a runner.

– – –

After their wild first two weeks of the season, the Titans have a formula that’s working. They run the ball reasonably well, score virtually every time they get into the red zone and get off the field on third down on defense. They’ve turned the ball over once during this three-game winning streak while posting a turnover margin of plus-4.

It’s easy to see how narrow that formula has been for winning. The Titans came within a 2-point conversion of blowing a 24-10 lead to the Raiders in Week 3. Two weeks ago, they had to survive a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line with a four-point lead and 19 seconds left against the Commanders to beat one of the league’s worst teams. And yet, every year, it seems like we’re having this same conversation about how the Titans can’t keep winning all these close games before they keep doing exactly that.

The Titans need to improve on offense. Even the best versions of this team can’t count on converting virtually every one of their red zone trips into touchdowns, and given that the Titans are 29th in EPA per play outside of the red zone, they have to improve. I would be surprised if that change didn’t happen as the season goes along.

Beyond that, their chances depend on keeping that pass rush going and getting the most out of Henry. Even if he isn’t his peak self, his 2021 version, the one who has been around the past three weeks is good enough to push them forward, create opportunities off play-action and contribute to winning games. Asking for the top seed in the AFC again might be too much, but the Titans look well positioned to claim the AFC South.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

The team that beat the Titans and the Chiefs last postseason might have a pretty strong case, too! The defending conference champions are 3-3, but they’ve outscored their opponents by 23 points, the fifth-best mark in the conference. FPI and Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System both have the Bengals as the third-best team in the AFC. DVOA has them 12th in the league and seventh in the conference, but that’s actually better than where they finished a year ago, when they ended within a drive of the Lombardi Trophy.

– – –

This season, Cincinnati has three plays of 50-plus yards, and not coincidentally, it has one in each of its three victories. Two of them have been long runs after the catch, one by Tyler Boyd against the Jets, the other on a broken-tackle spree from Chase against the Saints last Sunday.

Cincinnati’s explosive-play differential is minus-13 this season, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. The four teams below them include three whose seasons are essentially over (the Panthers, Steelers and Texans) and one in first place (the 5-1 Vikings, who have had major problems in their secondary). Burrow and the offense should create more explosive plays as the season goes along.

I believe in the defense, and I don’t think the special teams will have too many disaster days like we saw against the Steelers in the opener. The key difference for this team is going to be that rushing attack. If the Bengals can get Mixon going and force teams to move a safety into the box, it’s going to create opportunities for the passing attack to hit those devastating shots downfield. If the running game still flails, though, they might not have enough to recreate their glory days from a year ago, at least regularly enough to win the North.

They’ll also have to beat a difficult schedule to get there. Per the FPI, the Bengals have faced the league’s eighth-easiest schedule to start the season and will face its third-toughest slate from here. The only other teams with more difficult schedules are their AFC North brethren, the Browns and Steelers.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

The Chargers, the only other 4-2 team left in the AFC, are succeeding despite a nasty run of injuries. In addition to quarterback Justin Herbert playing through a rib injury, they have lost star tackle Rashawn Slater (biceps) for the season, have spent most of the season without wideout Keenan Allen (hamstring) and have edge rusher Joey Bosa (groin) on injured reserve. That alone would be a brutal start to the season for any team.

Onto that pile, you can add cornerback J.C. Jackson (ankle), who has missed multiple games. Kicker Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) missed Week 5 and then played through an injury in Week 6; he’ll be out two to four weeks. Center Corey Linsley missed Week 3 (knee) and then sat out Monday’s win over the Broncos because of food poisoning.

– – –

And yet, despite the offensive frustration, the injuries and the fourth-down frustrations, L.A. is 4-2. It has been outscored by 11 points and gone 3-1 in one-score games, so you could argue it has been fortunate to stand where it is after six weeks. The Chargers got a spectacularly timed interception against Jacoby Brissett in Week 5 to preserve that victory over the Browns.

Those wins are in the bank, though, and we know they have the top-end talent to compete with any team. They face the league’s 10th-easiest schedule from here, and they’re one week away from a bye, giving Herbert and the injured players a much-needed week of rest. With games against the Seahawks and Falcons coming up, they could be 6-2 in advance of their games against the 49ers and Chiefs.

And yet, would it be a surprise if the Chargers lost to either of those teams? They still haven’t had their stretch of football in which they look or feel convincing as one of the league’s top teams, like the one we saw from the Bengals in the second half of 2021. A win over the Seahawks on Sunday would give Staley his first four-game winning streak. Even in this run, they’ve seemingly played down to their competition. They likely can’t sustain this level of play and keep winning, but with the possibility of getting Allen and Bosa back and Herbert healthier after the bye, there’s the possibility they raise their level of play and keep this streak going.

Lightning round: The other possibilities

The New England Patriots (3-3) have won two straight in dominating fashion despite starting untested rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. The fourth-round pick has been brilliant, and the Patriots rank seventh in EPA per play on offense and first in drive success rate over that stretch. If the offense sustains this level of play after Mac Jones returns and the defense continues to force takeaways, they should be able to rely on the same formula that won them 10 games a year ago.

The Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) haven’t won pretty, but Sunday was the first signs of life for what had been a moribund offense. Without running back Jonathan Taylor, they decided to go no huddle and play at a fast tempo. Quarterback Matt Ryan went 42-of-58 for 389 yards with three touchdown passes, and crucially, he wasn’t sacked once. Indy’s defense has held up its end of the bargain and ranks 13th in DVOA despite the absence of linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who has been limited by injuries to 16 snaps this season. If the offense we saw last week is sustainable, the Colts could be good enough to win the AFC South. Beating the Titans in their rematch this week is key.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) are a less imposing version of the Ravens, as Doug Pederson’s team has blown fourth-quarter leads to the Commanders and Colts. Play-by-play metrics are still fond of the Jags, who rank eighth in the league in DVOA after six weeks, but they might have missed their chance. Per Football Outsiders, they have played the league’s second-easiest schedule through six weeks and will play a league-average slate from here. It’s not out of the question they rise up to claim a competitive South, but they’ve got work to do.

Which team actually is third best in the AFC?

I’ll go with the Ravens, who have shown the highest ceiling of any of these teams so far. They should be able to figure out their fourth-quarter woes to start closing out games the way they did in years past. And unlike the rest of the AFC North, their schedule is relatively manageable over the remainder of the season.

I wouldn’t say I’m confident in John Harbaugh’s team, but in a very weird season, I’m not sure I’m confident in anybody besides the Bills and Chiefs.

2023 DRAFT

We’re not sure if this came out before or after the trade of RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY, but ESPN.com projects the Panthers will get the first pick:

The Carolina Panthers have the best chance to pick No. 1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft, according to the updated projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).

The 1-5 Panthers — who picked sixth in the 2022 draft — have a 23% chance to land the top selection after a third straight loss. Last week, they became the first team in the NFL to fire their head coach (Matt Rhule) this season. They’re followed in our draft order projections by the 1-4 Detroit Lions (22.8%), who are coming off a bye week.

There already have been five trades involving first-round picks for next April’s draft, with the Lions, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles in line to have two selections in Round 1. The Miami Dolphins would have been the fifth team, but they were stripped of their own pick because of violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game. That means there are only 31 picks in the first round for 2023.

1. Carolina Panthers (1-5)

Average draft position: 4.4

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.9%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93.5%

2. Detroit Lions (1-4)

Average draft position: 4.6

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 22.8%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 68.6%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 91.1%

3. Chicago Bears (2-4)

Average draft position: 5.2

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.9%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.7%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 89.9%

4. Houston Texans (1-3-1)

Average draft position: 6.1

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.3%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.7%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.6%

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)

Average draft position: 6.3

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 52%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 83.2%

6. Seattle Seahawks (via 2-4 DEN)

Average draft position: 7.6

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.8%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 39.6%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 74.3%

7. Washington Commanders (2-4)

Average draft position: 9.2

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.9%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.8%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 63.4%

8. Philadelphia Eagles (via 2-4 NO)

Average draft position: 9.6

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.1%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.9%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.9%

9. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)

Average draft position: 10.6

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.4%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20.3%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 55.3%

10. Houston Texans (1-3-1) (via 2-4 CLV)

Average draft position: 11.0

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.5%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.8%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 51.5%

11. Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Average draft position: 12.5

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.5%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.9%

12. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

Average draft position: 14.1

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.8%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.4%

13. Tennessee Titans (3-2)

Average draft position: 14.2

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.2%

14. Detroit Lions (via 3-3 LAR)

Average draft position: 14.6

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.9%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 27.9%

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)

Average draft position: 14.7

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.4%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.5%

16. New England Patriots (3-3)

Average draft position: 16.1

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.6%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.6%

17. Atlanta Falcons (3-3)

Average draft position: 16.3

18. Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)

Average draft position: 17.0

19. New York Jets (4-2)

Average draft position: 18.7

20. Miami Dolphins (via 3-3 SF)

Average draft position: 19.8

21. New York Giants (5-1)

Average draft position: 20.2

22. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

Average draft position: 21.1

23. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Average draft position: 21.2

24. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

Average draft position: 21.9

25. Green Bay Packers (3-3)

Average draft position: 21.9

26. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)

Average draft position: 23.0

FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Less than 0.1%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.9%

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)

Average draft position: 24.8

28. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)

Average draft position: 25.1

29. Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)

Average draft position: 27.3

30. Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

Average draft position: 28.0

31. Buffalo Bills (5-1)

Average draft position: 28.9