| NFC EAST |
| DALLASHow good is this name on Ben Solak’s All-Film Team of the First Quarter? DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Dallas Cowboys: If you’re going to be an undersized ‘backer in the NFL, you’d better be so fast and tackle so well in space that you can make up for shaky between-the-tackles play. That’s exactly what I’m seeing from Overshown, who can absolutely fly to the football when running sideline to sideline. I’m not sure the cover instincts are there yet — Overshown is only a second-year player who sat out his rookie season — but if they come with reps, he looks like a splashy playmaker. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAQB KIRK COUSINS looked pretty darn good Thursday night as he joined elite company. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: He’s still not driving the ball with his back leg the way he used to. On Thursday night, it didn’t matter. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, in his fifth game after returning from a torn Achilles that ended his 2023 season, set a career high and a franchise record with 509 passing yards in an improbable 36-30 overtime win over the Buccaneers. It was only the 25th 500-yard passing game in NFL history, and by far the most anyone had thrown in a single game all season. At 509, Cousins ties Vince Ferragamo (who threw for 509 yards on December 26, 1982) for 15th on the all-time, single-game list. Cousins threw 58 passes on the night, completing 42 and adding four touchdowns against an interception that seemed to seal his team’s fate late in the fourth quarter. And so, on the night the Falcons put Matt Ryan in the team’s Ring of Honor, his own single-game team record of 503 from his MVP season of 2016. We think the word “fell” is missing from the end of Florio’s last sentence, to point out an obvious error, segueing to our next item.- – -Florio is among those crediting Atlanta’s thrilling victory to the “missed” face mask foul. Thursday night’s thriller in Atlanta comes with a small asterisk. The Buccaneers were robbed of a chance to close the deal in regulation by an obvious miss of a facemask foul late in the fourth quarter. It happened with 1:39 to play, and with Tampa Bay leading, 30-27. After the lone Kirk Cousins interception of the night seemingly put the Bucs in position to ice the game, running back Bucky Irving gained seven yards on second and 13 from the Atlanta 31. A flag came out, and it appeared to be the result of an obvious grab of his facemask as he was being tackled. Instead, the Bucs were called for holding, pushing them out of field goal range and forcing them into second and 23 from the Atlanta 41. The drive ended in a punt, and the Falcons drove into position for the field goal that forced the extra session. The fouls should have offset, with the Bucs getting another crack at second and 13. No one knows what would have happened next. Regardless, that’s what should have happened. Officials make mistakes all the time. As the NFL expands the embrace of clear and obvious visual evidence, either through formal replay review or replay assistance, this is the kind of thing that needs to be correctable via the plain and blatant visual evidence. There’s no subjectivity or ambiguity when a facemask is pulled. The evidence is almost always clear and obvious. It’s an easy fix, especially as the league uses replay more and more to get calls right. That’s all anyone wants (except Falcons fans, right now). Get the calls right. Use replay to do it. In an age of widespread legalized gambling in which the NFL has closely aligned with the house, it’s more important than ever to minimize the impact of human error on the outcome of wagers made by more and more people. This one is easy. Put it at the top of the list for the offseason rule changes. Facemask fouls become subject to replay assistance and replay review. It’s long overdue. And don’t fret, Falcons fans. It won’t take away tonight’s outcome. It ultimately might save your team from having something similar happen to it in the future. That said, the DB can agree that the foul was obvious when Prime called up a slow motion replay and said, “look at this obvious face mask penalty.” We’re not so sure it was obvious at real time, in traffic, from the seven angles, and only seven angles, that the officials on the field had (and we just watched it – and while we think the face mask may have been grabbed, we also can’t rule out that the defender pulled BUCKY IRVING down by grabbing onto the front of the shoulder pad).- – -Josh Kendall of The Athletic brings us up to date on the OT hero, WR KHADERAL HODGE: KhaDarel Hodge’s left thigh pad has the silhouette of a guitar on it. His right thigh pad reads “Rock Out” in script letters. They are the remnants of a touchdown celebration he developed when he played in Cleveland, one of many stops in a long and mostly anonymous football career. Hodge mimics breaking a guitar, taking another one out of its case and playing air guitar. Thursday night would have been the perfect time to do it. Unfortunately, the Atlanta Falcons wide receiver “blacked out,” he said. Hodge, a reserve wide receiver on the field only because Drake London suffered an injury on the previous play, caught a 45-yard touchdown pass in overtime to give the Falcons a walk-off 36-30 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. “I blacked out. I came back to, and the next thing I know I’m on the ground,” Hodge said. “Hopefully, I’ll get in the end zone again, and I won’t black out, and I’ll actually do the celebration.” Hodge’s touchdown gave the Falcons (3-2) their unlikeliest win in a season that is already full of them. Atlanta’s decisive scores in its three wins have all come within the final 36 seconds of regulation or overtime. Thursday was the second time this season that the Falcons have won a game in which they had less than a 5 percent win probability at one point, according to Next Gen Stats. They had no such wins between 2016 and 2023. So maybe it was fitting that this victory was sealed by Hodge, who was born in D’Lo, Miss., played collegiately at Alcorn State, Hinds Community College and Prairie View A&M and has made four stops in the NFL, hanging on to a job mostly because of his special teams prowess. “Red, we call him Red, he’s just made plays all camp, shows up on special teams all the time,” quarterback Kirk Cousins said. “When you’re coming from Prairie View, you’ve got to have some serious tape to get noticed out of college, so it didn’t really surprise me because I thought, ‘That’s probably how he got in this league and probably why he’s stayed in this league.’ I’m so grateful we didn’t have to trot our red zone offense out there on the 3-yard line. He just ended it.” Hodge’s catch pushed Cousins past 500 passing yards in a game for the first time in his 13-year career. Cousins finished 42 of 58 for 509 yards and four touchdowns, setting not just his own personal yardage mark but also the Falcons’ franchise record of 503 yards, established by Matt Ryan in 2016. As if the game needed any more storylines, Ryan was in the building Thursday because he was inducted into the team’s Ring of Honor at halftime. “I just wanted Matt to be able to have a special night,” Cousins said. Even with Cousins’ historic night, Hodge got all the attention in the locker room after the game. Teammates Zach Harrison and Ruke Orhorhoro were repeatedly watching clips of his play and shouting while Hodge was surrounded by media members nearby. At 12:15 a.m., Hodge’s cellphone had 160 text messages, and they were still rolling in. It was Hodge’s second touchdown in five days. He recovered a muffed punt for a touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 4 win over the New Orleans Saints. He had one touchdown in his previous six seasons. “These last two weeks for me have been wild and just a blessing. I pray for times like these every night,” Hodge said. “I just pray to get in the end zone some type of way. To get in it on special teams and then come back and get it like this, I’m just so grateful, and I thank God for it.” |
| NEW ORLEANSWe don’t think this is tampering. Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com with quotes from QB DEREK CARR on a possible re-union with WR DAVANTE ADAMS: New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr said he would love the chance to play with former teammate Davante Adams again if the opportunity presented itself. Adams is currently under contract with the Las Vegas Raiders through the 2026 season but has asked to be traded. Sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Wednesday that Adams would like to play with a quarterback he knows, which includes Carr and New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Raiders have informed other teams they would “consider” trading Adams for a package that would include a second-round draft pick and additional compensation, league sources told Schefter on Tuesday. “I think all 32 quarterbacks would love to play with Davante. We would welcome that,” Carr said Thursday. “I don’t know if I can get in trouble for saying that. I just think everyone kind of knows that … I think everyone would love to play with Tay. I would obviously welcome playing with him again if that ever worked out in our careers.” Adams played with Rodgers from 2014 to 2021 after being selected by the Green Bay Packers in the second round of the 2014 draft. He was reunited with Carr, his college quarterback at Fresno State, after he was traded to the Raiders before the 2022 season. They have played only one season together in the NFL, with Carr getting released in 2023, but Carr said he considers Adams one of his “best friends.” Carr said that their families still vacation together and that their lone NFL season together was a lot of fun. “He did have 1,500 yards. I think I threw him, like, 12 touchdowns,” Carr said. “We didn’t win as many games as we thought, but it wasn’t all bad. We had fun doing it, that’s for sure. “I think it was like the second-best year of his career [with me]. The narrative that it didn’t work out is correct because we didn’t win as many games. But when it comes to getting him the ball and him scoring a lot of touchdowns, I think it went pretty good.” Carr said he and Adams talk often and have spoken this week but have not discussed any trade rumors. “Business stuff, we don’t even talk about it. That stuff is so beyond our control sometimes, and I’m so focused here,” Carr said. Saints coach Dennis Allen said he liked the team’s current group of receivers when asked about the possibility of adding a receiver to a group that includes Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. “I think we’ve got some good young players that I feel really good about, and I think they’re taking a step up,” Allen said. “I thought both Chris and Shaheed did some good things in the game the other day against Atlanta. I like our receivers. I like our team. If there’s ever an opportunity that we feel like makes sense to help our team, we’re going to try to help our team. But I like our receiver room.” See LAS VEGAS for more on Adams. |
| NFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSBen Solak of ESPN.com says no one is playing ball close to the best QB in the NFC – and the fact we put this blurb in Rams will tell you he’s not singling out QB JAYDEN DANIELS: All-Film Team Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams: Your favorite quarterback’s favorite quarterback. The Rams are 1-3, but they’d be 0-4 — heck, they’d be relegated to the Pac-2 — if not for Stafford, who has been lights-out this season under constant duress. There isn’t a QB in the NFC playing better ball than Stafford (it isn’t close), and only a couple in the AFC are. Hard to see how Daniels couldn’t at least be close to the best QB in the NFC. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYOn Thursday, the Chiefs did indeed put WR RASHEE RICE on IR – but they are not saying, just yet, that it is season-ending. ESPN.com: The Kansas City Chiefs placed wide receiver Rashee Rice on injured reserve Thursday, sidelining him for at least the next four games. Rice was hurt Sunday when quarterback Patrick Mahomes collided with his knee as Rice, Mahomes and other players were chasing a Los Angeles Chargers fumble that followed an interception. Kansas City won’t know more about the extent of the injury until next week, Reid said Thursday, adding that Rice was waiting on the swelling to be reduced in his injured knee before undergoing further testing. “We’re really hoping that things work out for the best, but let’s just see where it goes and leave it up to the doctors to see,” Reid said. “Rashee’s had a phenomenal year. Unfortunately, in this league injuries happen, and life goes on, so we always expected the next guys to step up and roll, and it’s no different now. There’s not another Rashee. There [are] other guys, though, that are very, very good, so we’ll be fine.” Rice leads the Chiefs with 24 receptions and 288 yards receiving in four games this season. He’s also tied for the team lead with two touchdown receptions. |
| LAS VEGASBen Solak with a name to know from his All-Film Team of the First Quarter: Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: As a longtime Jakobi Meyers fan and big Brock Bowers guy, I thought Tucker would average one target per game this season for a healthy 45 air yards a pop. Not so. Tucker has caught 12 of his 15 targets over the past two games and scored both a receiving and a rushing touchdown. He’s my sort of speedster — fast, but still a little stocky and really tough. He doesn’t shy away from contact. If WR DAVANTE ADAMS is traded, Tucker will become even more prominent, right? Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com come up with 11 possible trade destinations for Adams: The Davante Adams era in Las Vegas was never going to make sense for very long. A Raiders team that squeaked into the postseason in 2021 on the back of a winning streak against teams with injured or compromised quarterbacks had an inflated opinion of how close it was to contending. Adams was supposed to be reunited with Derek Carr, his quarterback from his days at Fresno State, but after one year, the Raiders cut Carr and began cycling through replacement-level passers. The Josh McDaniels regime that traded for Adams in 2022 was fired shortly after. Now, Adams could follow his former coach out the door. Reports on Tuesday suggested the Raiders would consider trading Adams, which would end his tenure with Vegas after a little over two seasons. As a player who turns 32 in December with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as his options at quarterback, Adams might not be eager to spend another year in what amounts to football purgatory. Where should he head? And what should the Raiders expect in return? Let’s get a sense of what the Adams trade market might look like in advance of the Nov. 5 deadline. First, though, let’s answer three pressing questions: Should the Raiders trade Adams?Yes. The move to acquire Adams in the first place didn’t make much sense for the Raiders, who were coming off a 10-7 season with a 6.9-win Pythagorean expectation. It didn’t take much self-scouting or analysis to suggest they weren’t a star wide receiver away, and given the sheer number of top-100 picks who had failed to live up to expectations during the Jon Gruden era, the last thing they needed to do was trade away more draft capital and pass on cost-controlled talent. History suggested making such a big bet on a wide receiver as he was about to turn 30 was too aggressive, especially given where the Raiders were likely to be in terms of contention. They naturally hoped Adams would be an exception, but they got exactly what they should have expected. He was a superstar in his first season with the team, took a notable step backward in Year 2 and was closer to good than great before sitting out last week’s win over the Browns because of a hamstring injury. The Raiders still need more young talent, and until they make a significant commitment to a quarterback of the future, they’re unlikely to make serious waves as a contender in the AFC. By the time they land that quarterback, Adams is likely to be far past his peak and/or a potential cap casualty. Getting draft capital for him now makes sense. Where is Adams as a player?Though any receiver is going to be affected by the quarterback play around him, Adams appears to have taken a step back from his peak years with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. From 2018 to 2021, he led the league in receiving yards per game (93.2) and averaged 2.7 yards per route run. The latter figure was topped among wide receivers across the entirety of that four-year stretch by only Michael Thomas. In Adams’ first season with the Raiders, he kept up that level of play. He averaged 89.2 receiving yards per game in 2022, and his 2.6 yards per route run ranked sixth among all wide receivers. The season earned him his third straight All-Pro nod. Since then, he hasn’t been quite as impactful. Adams has averaged 67.7 receiving YPG game since the start of last season. He has dropped just below 2.0 yards per route run, which ranks 35th among receivers over the past two seasons. Quarterback play is a factor, but he ranks behind Diontae Johnson, Michael Pittman Jr., Amari Cooper and DJ Moore in yards per route run since the start of last season, none of whom have had great signal-callers throwing them the football. ESPN’s receiver scores showed some slippage even earlier. Adams ranked second in overall score in 2021, but that fell to 22nd in his first season with the Raiders. He has ranked 23rd among wideouts by the same metric since the start of 2023. The 23rd-best wideout in football is still a useful player, of course, but as he enters his mid-30s, history says he’s more likely to take steps backward than forward. What’s the money situation?One of the reasons Adams might be available is related to money. His contract takes a massive leap next season, with his base salary jumping from $16.9 million to $35.7 million. None of that money is guaranteed, though, and there’s a decent chance the Raiders might have considered cutting him outright to avoid what would have been a cap hit north of $44 million. Adams might try to get some of that money guaranteed as part of a trade, since it’s unlikely he would see a $35 million base salary on the open market. Though young stars such as Justin Jefferson are earning that sort of money, the Vikings’ wideout has been far more productive over the past 14 months and is much younger than Adams. This isn’t a league that pays non-quarterbacks on the wrong side of 30 big-money deals in free agency, and when they do, those contracts often end up as disasters, with Bills pass rusher Von Miller as the most notable recent example. As it stands, the team that trades for Adams would owe him about $13.2 million in base salary over the remainder of the 2024 season, a figure that decreases by $940,000 each week as he gets his game checks. The acquiring team would owe $36.3 million to Adams in 2025 if it kept him on the roster without touching his deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he worked out a restructured deal with his new team that would come in at a more reasonable price while also netting him significant guaranteed money after 2024. A deal that guaranteed him $25 million for 2025 might make sense. What could the Raiders expect to get in return?ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the Raiders are hoping to land a second-round pick and additional compensation in return for Adams, which seems optimistic, but not impossible. Teams haven’t paid significant draft capital during the season for playmakers in recent years, with one of the few exceptions being the deal the 49ers struck for Christian McCaffrey. Despite reports the Panthers would trade McCaffrey in a deal only for multiple first-round picks, the 49ers eventually sent second-, third-, and fourth-round picks to the Panthers for the star running back. Raiders fans might want that sort of haul for Adams, but McCaffrey was 26 at the time and on a flexible contract for several years to come. Adams is five years older and about to face a contractual impasse. In terms of wide receivers, Raiders fans might be reminded of the last time they traded a star wideout in-season. They nabbed a first-round pick from the Cowboys in 2018 for Amari Cooper, who proceeded to turn around Dallas’ season and Dak Prescott’s passing numbers in the process. (Gruden turned that pick into safety Johnathan Abram.) Cooper hasn’t been as spectacular as Adams has been at his best, but he was 24 and still on a rookie contract at the time. The Patriots sent a second-round pick to the Falcons in 2019 for Mohamed Sanu, a wideout who wasn’t in Adams’ league but who came at a much cheaper price. Sanu was owed $3.5 million for the remainder of 2019 and had one year left on his deal at $6 million for 2020. Unfortunately for the Pats, Sanu suffered an ankle injury, came back too quickly and wasn’t even able to make the 2020 roster. It turned out to be a disastrous deal for the Patriots. The closest comparable might be Randy Moss, who was unexpectedly traded by the Patriots to the Vikings four games into the 2010 season. Moss was 33 at the time of the trade, and the Pats landed a third-round pick and a future seventh-rounder in the deal. That move turned out even more poorly for the acquiring team; the Vikings ended their reunion with Moss after four games, releasing the future Hall of Famer. There will be a number of teams interested in Adams, which will unquestionably help drive up his value. Given his age, hamstring injury, the amount of money he is owed this season and his uncertain contract situation after 2024, though, a second-round pick might be an aggressive ask, let alone additional compensation. My belief is the Raiders would be more likely to land a third-round pick, perhaps one that could become a second-round pick if he remains on his new team’s roster into the 2025 season. At the same time, it takes only one team intent on winning a bidding war to change the Raiders’ minds. And as we start running through potential trade candidates, there’s one team that might need to significantly outbid the competition to land the receiver it needs. Which teams should try to trade for Adams? Kansas City ChiefsIn terms of immediate need, the Chiefs would love to add a wideout with Adams’ talent. They need somebody who can win at all levels, and while he might not be quite as explosive as he once was, he has the ability to assume a major target share immediately in Andy Reid’s offense. Adams would take some of the pressure off Travis Kelce to return to his previous form and from Xavier Worthy to emerge as a primary target during his rookie season. There are more problems with the fit than it might initially seem, though. The Chiefs are already dealing with serious injuries at receiver, with Hollywood Brown out for the regular season and Rashee Rice sidelined indefinitely with an as-yet-determined knee injury. Adams is dealing with a hamstring injury that popped up in practice last week, and while Kansas City will undoubtedly be able to examine him before making a trade, hamstring injuries for wideouts can linger. I’m not sure Adams would have a long-term future in Kansas City. The Chiefs committed significant draft capital to young wideouts Rice and Worthy, who probably would be penciled in as the team’s top two wideouts next season. They have a quarterback who is probably about to come due for an updated version of his record-setting contract. General manager Brett Veach has paid three star linemen in Jawaan Taylor, Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey, and a new deal for Trey Smith is likely to follow. Nick Bolton and Justin Reid, two of the team’s top defenders, will be free agents after the season. The Chiefs also just won two Super Bowls with a very limited wide receiver corps after trading away Tyreek Hill without replacing their former top wideout. They had Kelce in the mix, but they deliberately wanted to shift their roster construction by trading Hill and spreading the money and draft picks acquired for him around the rest of the roster. The 2021 AFC Championship Game, in which the Bengals were able to double-team Kelce and Hill, and shut down the Kansas City offense in the second half, clearly weighed on the decision-makers. I believe they see the idea of an offense that isn’t built around one receiver as a feature as opposed to a problem waiting to be solved. Oh, after all of that, the Raiders would need to be willing to trade Adams to their hated division rivals and play him twice in 2024 and perhaps again in 2025. That alone might be a deal-breaker. The Raiders might be willing to make that trade only after Week 8, when the Chiefs travel to Las Vegas, which would eliminate the embarrassing scenario of Adams torching his old team in his former stadium a few weeks after being moved. They might not be willing to do it at all. The Chiefs probably would have to pay a premium to beat out similar offers from other teams, given they are divisional opponents and have picks that are all but certain to land at the end of each round. It would be out of character for Veach to make this sort of deal for a player who is 31, but potential three-peats might have a way of altering a team’s typical plans. New York JetsWhat about the long-rumored reunion between Adams and his other former quarterback? Things haven’t gone great for either Adams or Aaron Rodgers since the two parted ways after the 2021 season, and with the Jets all-in to try to win a Super Bowl this season, a trade to reunite one of the league’s most devastating hookups would push them closer. I’m not sure the fit is quite as comfortable after taking a closer look. For one, the Jets already have three wideouts they’re playing regularly in Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and fellow former Packers player Allen Lazard, who leads New York with 204 receiving yards this season. Trading for Adams probably would bump Lazard out of the lineup, leaving the Jets with a player making $10 million this season who doesn’t play special teams. They could certainly make that move if necessary, but it’s not as if they have an obvious need at wide receiver. Money is also a concern. Rodgers’ status after this season is uncertain, but Wilson becomes eligible for an extension in 2025, and he’ll be asking to top Jefferson’s average annual salary of $35 million. Sauce Gardner, the team’s top cornerback, is also due for what is expected to be a market-resetting extension, as is lead back Breece Hall. Even if the Jets can talk Adams into a pay cut for next season, would they be comfortable paying $60 million for their top two wideouts? The Jets would struggle to find the cap room to accommodate both Adams and holdout edge rusher Haason Reddick, who has yet to play this season. The team could try to trade the rights to Reddick as part of the package to land Adams, but one of the few things the Raiders don’t need is an edge rusher. Maxx Crosby is a superstar, and though Malcolm Koonce was lost for the season, Vegas probably wants to give a long look to 2023 top-10 pick Tyree Wilson. A third team (the suddenly edge-needy Cowboys?) probably would need to get involved to make an Adams-Reddick deal work. If the Jets instead wanted the Raiders to pay down Adams’ salary to make the finances more palatable, they would have to send more draft capital to get the deal done. (If Vegas paid $10 million or so of Adams’ base salary as a bonus and trade sweetener, I would estimate the Jets would need to send back an additional third-round pick.) The Jets have a full complement of picks in 2025, but they’re already missing cost-controlled talent from the past two years after their trades for Reddick and Rodgers. And if we don’t know what’s going to happen with Rodgers, would Adams really want to make another move where he goes to reunite with an old quarterback, only for that player to leave after one season? If the Jets just decide they want to throw everything they have at a title in 2024, they could justify an Adams deal. But they’re not quite as obvious of a candidate as they might seem. Buffalo BillsWhat if Adams ended up playing against his longtime quarterback in the battle for the AFC East? Though the Bills just endured their worst performance of the season in a blowout loss to the Ravens, they sit atop the division at 3-1. Josh Allen has made it work with a relatively unheralded receiver corps so far, but general manager Brandon Beane already knows the value of having a star wideout on the roster. He tried to trade for Antonio Brown before eventually landing Stefon Diggs, who helped unlock a new level from Allen as the quarterback grew into a perennial MVP candidate. Again, though, age and salary matter. Diggs was 26 when the Bills acquired the then-Vikings wideout in 2020, and he was on a team-friendly contract for several seasons to come. Beane made a big splash in free agency when he signed the 33-year-old Von Miller to a deal with three guaranteed years back in 2022, but that move was already a disaster for Buffalo before Miller was suspended on Tuesday after violating the league’s personal conduct policy. Like the Chiefs after Hill, the Bills appeared to be using their offseason trade of Diggs to the Texans to shift their offense toward bigger personnel packages and away from the clear star wideout approach. Beane could decide to flip and return to the team’s former philosophy if Adams is available, but it would be a surprise. This team seems more likely to focus on young talent as opposed to older players. Los Angeles ChargersThough the Chargers have fallen to 2-2, there’s plenty to be excited about in their start under Jim Harbaugh. The defense looks excellent, although Joey Bosa has been in and out of the lineup because of injuries. The bye week should allow a number of key players a much-needed week of rest, and with the Broncos and Cardinals coming afterward, Los Angeles could be in position to approach the trade deadline as an AFC wild-card team. Justin Herbert could use another wideout after the team jettisoned Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason, but I’m not sure they’re in position to take a significant swing on Adams given their short-term cap concerns. Quentin Johnston has looked better in his second season, and Ladd McConkey is going to get time to develop into a starting role. And as another team in the AFC West, if the Raiders aren’t going to send Adams to the Chiefs, they certainly aren’t going to ship him to their rivals in L.A. Pittsburgh SteelersAfter nearly trading for Brandon Aiyuk, the Steelers could go back into the market for another wide receiver to team up alongside third-year pro George Pickens. At 3-1, Pittsburgh sits atop the AFC North, and it has little to be enthused about at wide receiver behind Pickens. Van Jefferson has only 36 receiving yards on 73 routes this season. His 0.5 yards per route run figure ranks 94th out of 100 wideouts. With the Steelers spending less at quarterback than any other team, they can afford a No. 1 wideout like Adams in ways the Chiefs, Bills and Jets cannot. Again, though, there are massive differences here between Aiyuk and Adams, most notably with age. Aiyuk is 26. The Steelers would have been trading for Aiyuk’s prime, which isn’t the case with Adams. When the Steelers have been willing to shift significant draft capital in recent years, it has been for young players such as Aiyuk and Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was in his second season as a pro when Pittsburgh sent a first-round pick to Miami to acquire the star safety in 2019. There’s also the realistic question of how often this offense is actually going to pass. The Steelers pass rate is 9% below expectation this season, as a Justin Fields and Arthur Smith-led offense is unsurprisingly choosing to run the ball at a rate above league average. Falcons fans know what it’s like to see a Smith offense pass up opportunities to get the ball to highly regarded playmakers so the backup tight ends can get touches instead. The Steelers can justify Adams, but I’m not sure it’s the best possible fit. Baltimore RavensAs an organization, the Ravens have loved collecting veteran wideouts when other teams think they’re through. They signed Derrick Mason and Steve Smith on the wrong side of 30 and coaxed 1,000-yard seasons out of each. They signed Odell Beckham Jr. before last season to a one-year deal worth $15 million. They also swapped midround picks with the Cardinals in a 2010 deal for Anquan Boldin, who was about to turn 30, and saw him help lead the offense to a Super Bowl. With Rashod Bateman often struggling to stay healthy next to Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews struggling to make an impact, would another move for a veteran wideout benefit the Ravens? The issue here is philosophy. Note that the Ravens signed all of those players in free agency besides Boldin, who was acquired in mid-March with a fifth-round pick for third- and fourth-round selections. The Ravens would absolutely be interested in signing Adams as a free agent if he were cut after the season, but trading a Day 2 draft pick for a short-term rental is not typically how this organization operates. It sent a third-round pick to the Vikings for Yannick Ngakoue a couple of years ago, but that was in a situation in which it would have been in position to recoup a compensatory pick for the edge rusher when he left in free agency. The Ravens eventually landed a fourth-rounder. Adams wouldn’t be eligible for a compensatory pick if the Ravens cut him after the season. They might not have the financial flexibility to afford Adams beyond this season given Lamar Jackson’s salary, and if they are going to add help on offense before the deadline, the offensive line seems like a bigger problem. Cleveland BrownsGetting creative, would a swap of Adams for Amari Cooper work? The Browns were a playoff team last season, so Adams could justify moving to a team theoretically more competitive than his current one, although the Raiders did beat the Browns in Week 4. Cooper is also looking for a new contract, and most of the notable names in personnel from the Gruden era who decided to trade Cooper are no longer part of the organization. Would Raiders fans who held onto their old Cooper jerseys be willing to welcome home their former No. 1 wideout? Maybe, but would this make a ton of sense for the Browns? They can afford the move, but they already restructured Cooper’s deal down to a minimum base salary of $1.2 million to keep him tradeable. Having already paid him more than $19 million this season, they would now be on the hook for $13 million more, taking their payout for a deal north of $30 million in 2024. Wide receiver might be a place where the Browns cut back. They’ve already signed Jerry Jeudy to an extension that will pay him $16 million next season. David Njoku is under contract. General manager Andrew Berry might also need to spend to address the offensive line, which has dealt with injuries and struggled mightily this season. Cleveland is also missing years of cost-controlled talent after their disastrous trade for Deshaun Watson. I can see the logic in a swap, but it would be more of a last resort than a priority for either side. Dallas CowboysNaturally, the Cowboys are always going to be in the discussion whenever a star player hits the trade market. After signing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to massive extensions, team owner Jerry Jones has been forced to cry poverty as a justification for not signing Derrick Henry. Dallas has started 2-2, but having just lost Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries, this doesn’t feel like a team heading in the right direction. Trading for Adams would certainly attract attention and take some of the pressure off Lamb, but it would be a cosmetic move. With Lamb, Prescott and Parsons likely to make north of $120 million combined next year once the edge rusher gets his new deal, the Cowboys will already be heavily committed to three star players. Brandin Cooks is already making $8 million this season to be the second wideout, so he would either be displaced or need to be moved as part of an Adams deal. (Cooks is now sidelined by an infection in his knee, which could open up a spot in the lineup for Adams.) This team desperately needs help running the football and stopping the run. Trading for a wide receiver instead would, well, actually would be a very Cowboys move. Green Bay PackersYou could understand the sentiment in wanting to bring back a franchise favorite given the youthfulness of Green Bay’s receiver corps and the injuries that have repeatedly befallen Christian Watson, with the most recent issue being a high-ankle sprain. Reacquiring Adams would take some of the load off the remaining receivers and provide the wide receivers room with a model from which to base its own growth. It’s not likely. The Packers have deliberately chosen to go younger across the board and field the youngest team in football. Like the Chiefs, I believe they see the variety of options they present Jordan Love in lieu of a top wide receiver as a strength of their roster. And with so much young talent, one of Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks is likely to emerge as a legitimate top wideout before the end of the season. I wouldn’t count on this one happening. Los Angeles RamsAgain, we always have to do our due diligence and mention the Rams when a star player hits the trade market. Sean McVay is trying to win another Super Bowl while Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level, and they suddenly have a major need at wide receiver with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both out indefinitely. The Raiders might hesitate to trade Adams to the archrival Chargers as they battle for the hearts and minds of Los Angeles residents whose fandom has been impacted by relocations, but would they consider shipping him to the Rams if it meant Adams moved back to the NFC? Though you can never rule anything out with the Rams, I wouldn’t count on them being the favorites in the Adams sweepstakes. Their big recent trade acquisitions — Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Jalen Ramsey and Marcus Peters — have generally been players in their mid-20s on rookie deals. The exceptions were Stafford, for whom the rules are different as a quarterback, and Von Miller, who was a pure rental. They sent a pair of Day 2 picks to the Broncos for Miller and got Denver to pay down the edge rusher’s salary in the process. The Rams could get out from the Kupp deal after this season, and given his injury issues, I wouldn’t be surprised if they chose to go in that direction. Adams could be a short- and medium-term replacement for Kupp if the 2021 Offensive Player of the Year isn’t expected to return anytime soon. With just $3.5 million in cap space, though, L.A. would need the Raiders to eat some money to get this deal done, which could make the draft capital required to complete the deal unpalatable. Washington CommandersLet’s finish with the team that makes the most sense in a potential Adams deal. I’ll start by introducing a video from my colleague Mina Kimes, who might actually be able to see the future given that she predicted this very trade in our joint podcast with Domonique Foxworth before the season: Since then, all the Commanders have done is start 3-1 while fielding one of the most explosive offenses in league history through four games. Jayden Daniels looks like an instant superstar quarterback, and he’s doing that with Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown running regular routes across from Terry McLaurin. Washington could easily justify adding another veteran wide receiver to the mix, especially as Daniels will be on a rookie deal through the 2027 season. General manager Adam Peters has shown a desire to add veteran talent to the roster, having quietly spent meaningful amounts of money on both sides of the ball this offseason to add competent veterans Dorance Armstrong, Bobby Wagner and Tyler Biadasz. Peters appears to be pursuing the same Texans-style accelerated rebuild that Nick Caserio implemented to jump-start Houston into the playoff picture once it found its quarterback in C.J. Stroud. This could be the Commanders’ version of Caserio’s trade for Stefon Diggs. They still have more than $26 million in cap space and would have no trouble fitting Adams on the roster. And for an ownership group that wants to do whatever it can to bring back lapsed fans after the disastrous decades of the Daniel Snyder era in Washington, this would be the sort of move that would draw eyeballs and attention back to the D.C. area. The Commanders’ playoff odds are already all the way up to 62.8%. They have to battle only the league’s seventh-easiest schedule the rest of the way. Daniels looks as if he’s about to become the face of the franchise. Trading for Adams would be a statement of intent, a sign this franchise will strike when the iron is hot and do what it takes to build a real winner. The Raiders surely wouldn’t mind sending Adams to the NFC and all the way to the East Coast. And Daniels would immediately be blessed with one of the best wide receiver duos in the game. It might not be the high-profile move to the Chiefs or Jets that many would figure, but Adams to the Commanders would be the best fit for all parties involved. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| JACKSONVILLEThe Jaguars lost by four points at Houston on Sunday, which on the face seems like a perfectly reasonable result even for a “good” Jaguars team. But Ben Solak ofESPN.com proclaims the team a “disaster.” The Big Thing: The fall of the JaguarsEvery week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous Sunday of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? In the middle of the 2022 season, the Jaguars were 2-6. It wasn’t great, but it wasn’t awful. They were only one year into coach Doug Pederson’s tenure and still recovering from the abject disaster of the 2021 Urban Meyer season. You remember? He kicked his own players during warmups and called his assistant coaches losers. Nightmare stuff. So 2-6 under Pederson wasn’t really all that bad. The team was young and still discovering its identity. The Jaguars had lost five consecutive one-score games, but you learn a lot about yourself in losses like that — namely, how to clean up the little stuff and execute when the chips are down. This is my opinion, but at the time, it was also Pederson’s opinion. Here’s what he said in his postgame news conference after they fell to 2-6: “We just keep plugging. We just keep plugging away, and we keep practicing and we keep learning and we keep teaching, and we keep scratching and fighting. … I truly believe that good things are going to happen for this football team. We’re sitting here after eight games, not where we want to be, obviously, but to every man in there, nobody is going to hang their head. Nobody is going to feel sorry for us.” Pederson was right. The Jaguars went 7-2 down the stretch, won the AFC South title at 9-8 and then executed one of the biggest postseason comebacks in NFL history, climbing out of a 27-point hole against the Chargers in the wild-card round. Pederson’s message to the team at halftime of that historic rally was much the same as it had been when they were down 2-6 midseason: “I went in and told the team, ‘One play at a time. Chip away. Defense, you’re starting the second half — get us a stop. Offense, we got to score every time we touch the ball.’ I knew we could get back into the football game.” That win was 20 months ago. It might as well be 20 years. The 2024 Jaguars are 0-4. They surrendered a second-half lead over the Dolphins in Week 1, gave the 1-3 Browns their only win in Week 2, were embarrassed in prime time by the Bills in Week 3 and gave up another second-half lead in Week 4 against the division-rival Texans. They are the only winless team left in football. But this team has been in a hole before, right? Pederson has pulled Jacksonville out of bad spirals; quarterback Trevor Lawrence has willed the team to unlikely victories. But these Jags sound nothing like those Jags. Here’s part of Pederson’s news conference after the loss to the Texans: “As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street.” No more “just keep plugging.” No more “chip away.” The steady hand at the wheel in 2022 has let go so that it can point a finger at someone else: the players. And it’s very clear Pederson is pointing the finger at Lawrence above all others. He spoke explicitly about Lawrence’s execution during his Monday availability, saying, “We missed Christian [Kirk] early in the third quarter, second play. We missed him on a deep — I mean, we maybe score, I don’t know.” Here’s the deep post Pederson is talking about, and he’s 100% correct: Kirk is open, and Lawrence misses him. And Lawrence has been missing too many throws this season. He has an off-target rate of 20.9%, which is the highest of his career, and an NFL Next Gen Stats completion percentage over expectation of minus-12.9%, an astonishingly low number. Rookie Zach Wilson was at minus-13.9% with the Jets in 2021, and second-year Wilson improved to minus-12.2%. Carolina’s Bryce Young was at minus-8.1% last season and was at minus-11.4% this season before he was benched. That’s the company Lawrence is keeping right now. Now, the funny thing is that despite his misses, Lawrence is still winning on the deep ball. He has always been an aggressive thrower, willing to attack downfield windows and hunt big plays at the expense of easier completions and high-percentage targets. On throws of 20-plus air yards, Lawrence is 7-for-16 for 222 yards and a score; that’s fifth in EPA per dropback and 11th in success rate. The downfield accuracy for Lawrence hasn’t really been a problem. The reliance on the downfield passing game is the far bigger issue. Lawrence is averaging 9.8 air yards per attempt, easily the highest number of his career. If it held for the full season, it would be the seventh-highest number for a quarterback since 2019. Meanwhile, the base passing game can’t carry its weight to get to the shot plays. There are no layups, no easy buckets. The Jaguars have called almost half as many screens this season (6.5% of Lawrence’s dropbacks) as they did in 2023 (12.5%). And 30% of Lawrence’s passing yards have come after the catch. Since 2019, the league average is 46.7%. The Jaguars have a 20% success rate when throwing behind the line of scrimmage, which is just about the saddest thing I’ve ever heard. But Pederson doesn’t call up an easy completion behind the line of scrimmage to get to third-and-manageable, nor does he call a run play. As he says, “I’m not going to do that. … I want Trevor. … He’s our guy; you got to put the ball in his hands, you got to continue to trust him; I’m going to continue to do that.” I’d argue that getting an easy completion on second-and-10 doesn’t betray trust in your quarterback, but I understand why Pederson wants to trust Lawrence. It’s better to get two shots at a completion beyond the sticks than play for a third-and-medium. And that’s what’s very frustrating about Pederson’s complaints here about Lawrence’s accuracy and execution: what happens on third-and-10 after the second-and-10 miss. It’s a big completion from rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. It’s not a perfect ball by any means, but a good one for a first down. If we use this three-play sequence as a microcosm for how hot and cold Lawrence has been this season, then it’s easy to see that blame belongs on Lawrence for missing too many throws. But good offenses can deal with their quarterback’s bad games and worst misses and still find ways to move the football. Good teams play complementary ball. That isn’t happening in Jacksonville at all. The Jaguars’ situational football is abysmal. They have 10 offensive procedural penalties on the season, and six of them have come in the red zone, which ties for the league high. They’ve scored on 9 of 14 red zone drives (only the Dolphins are worse), converted only 25% of their third downs (only the Browns and Broncos are worse) and look good on fourth down only because all four of their conversions came against the Bills — three of them when they were already down three scores. By fourth-down EPA, the Jaguars are fourth worst in the league. But that isn’t just execution. Pederson can’t point the finger at his players’ failure in execution without accidentally pointing a few fingers back at himself. It is a poorly prepared team that constantly makes mistakes. It is a poorly constructed game plan that fails in the red zone and on late downs. And where there was previously faith in the team and its effort, there is now division and immovability. Pederson is not helping Lawrence; Lawrence is not helping Pederson. And it feels as if the two parties are entrenched, wondering when the other guys are going to fix their problems. I’d say the Jaguars need a win just to wipe the slate clean. Take a glug of mouthwash and get the bad taste out of everyone’s mouth. But we might already be beyond the point where beating the Colts (led by Joe Flacco?) at home in Week 5 heals all wounds. Pederson is taking a very public tough-love approach to Lawrence — and maybe it’ll work. Maybe Lawrence will become more accurate and consistent, hitting all the throws we know he can hit. But the idea that all of the Jaguars’ problems will be fixed if Lawrence just hits a deep ball to Kirk … well, that doesn’t pass the smell test to me at all. Even if Pederson deserves less blame than Lawrence — which I think is a fair read of the Texans game but not a fair read of the 0-4 start in totality — Lawrence is the $275 million man. Should the 2024 Jaguars never get off the mat, it will be Pederson’s seat that gets hot, as he’s far more fungible than the recently extended Lawrence. Just as I was when Meyer was ousted and Pederson was inserted, I’m confident a breath of fresh air could lead to a quick and significant improvement in the Jaguars’ offense. There are fewer easy buttons in this offense than in any other leaguewide. Put some millennial Shanahan-ian scheme lord on the headset and offense will become so much easier in Jacksonville even if Lawrence is missing throws, because the margins for error will be so much wider. I find myself thinking of Matthew Stafford in Detroit, constantly climbing uphill battles on poorly coached teams with poorly constructed rosters, until suddenly he was playing for Sean McVay in Los Angeles. Is Lawrence another talented top pick who has underwhelmed in bad circumstances before eventually blossoming in greener pastures? Just like Stafford, we’ve seen how easily Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield have been elevated on new teams, and Lawrence is remarkably more talented than both of them. This should not be hard, and for the right coach, it will not be hard. That right coach was Pederson in 2022, but it doesn’t sound as if it’s Pederson in 2024. And if it isn’t going to be Pederson ever, then it should be someone else’s job in 2025. |
