The Daily Briefing Friday, September 17, 2021

Hard Knocks will now include a team that has undergone many of them since Andrew Luck retired.

The NFL has announced that the long-running series that focuses only on training camp and the preseason will add an in-season component. The first subject will be the Colts.

It’s a “multi-episode” series that will debut on Wednesday, November 17.

In recent years, NFL Films and Amazon produced All or Nothing, a series based on one specific team’s season. The episodes were released well after the season ended. The new Hard Knocks will have new episodes landing during the season.

The existing version of Hard Knocks has grown stale and uninteresting. Even with the Cowboys serving as the focal point for 2021, it didn’t seem nearly as interesting as it should have been. An in-season product could be very good.

As always, the level of intrigue will depend on the extent to which the team allows intriguing moments to make it to air. The best stuff often ends up on the cutting-room floor. If the NFL wants this to be as good as it can be, the expanded Hard Knocks will do its name justice, bringing to life all of the emotions — good and bad — that an NFL team experiences during a given season.

– – –

Florio also was quick to note this prior to Washington’s win last night:

Of the NFL’s 32 teams, four of them emerged as having specific and noteworthy internal friction over the question of whether and to what extent players will receive the COVID vaccine. Coincidentally, or not, those four teams have started the year a collective 0-4.

The Vikings lost to the Bengals, the Bills lost to the Steelers, the Colts lost to the Seahawks, and Washington lost to the Chargers. Three of the four were favored to win their Week One games.

It’s impossible to connect dots from Xs and Os to the vaccine question. It is possible to ask whether the angst and conflict coming from the vaccination agitation has caused the kind of distraction — at any point — that made these teams less prepared to win regular-season games, especially when facing teams that didn’t have that specific issue potentially clouding the effort to emerge from Week One with a 1-0 record.

None of the four team most widely connected to vaccination hesitation managed to win in Week One. In Washington, where coach Ron Rivera repeatedly pleaded publicly with players to get the vaccine given the compromised immune system resulting from his cancer battle of last year, the question becomes whether the team can avoid an 0-2 start with a short week, a backup quarterback, and the potentially lingering locker-room simmer from the vaccination question.

Again, there’s no way to prove that on-field struggles trace to the refusal by some players to get the in-arm protection against the virus. In a sport obsessed with minimizing distractions, however, those four teams have had an unlikely distraction, thanks to the vaccination issue.

GREEN BAY

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on why the Packers scored three points:

The most shocking result of the week was the Packers getting blown out by Jameis Winston and the Saints in Jacksonville by 35 points. I’ll leave aside the possibility of an Aaron Rodgers Florida curse and just mention that this was one of the worst games of Rodgers’ career. The 13.4 QBR he posted was the fifth worst of his 191 regular-season starts, and it could fall even farther as opponent adjustments change the way we view the Saints’ defense. He threw two interceptions after throwing five in all of last season.

I’m not too concerned about Rodgers’ subpar game, because we don’t have to go back very far to find a similar performance. The worst start of his career came just about 11 months ago, when he posted a 9.5 QBR in a loss to the Buccaneers. After going up 10-0, Rodgers threw a pick-six to Jamel Dean and then another interception on the subsequent drive. The Bucs, coming off a game in which they lost to the Bears as Tom Brady ran out of downs, ran off 38 consecutive points to rout the Packers. Of course, Rodgers was so flummoxed by the bad game that he went on to win league MVP.

I don’t see anything concerning in how Rodgers played Sunday. One interception came on mesh, a concept the Packers run every single week, where he was hit as he threw and didn’t get anything on a short-armed pass attempt. The other was an arm punt on third down in which he chucked the ball 52 yards in the air. Neither throw was the one he wanted to make, but it wasn’t as if he couldn’t complete passes or get the ball where he wanted at other times. It wasn’t his most accurate game, as 33.3% of his passes were graded as off-target, which tied for the third-most in his career, but I would want to see a bigger sample before I had meaningful concerns about his accuracy.

The offensive line is something to worry about given that left tackle David Bakhtiari is on injured reserve, but it wasn’t as if Rodgers was bothered regularly Sunday. The Saints pressured him on 13.3% of his dropbacks, which was one of the lowest rates of Week 1. The future Hall of Famer was sacked once and knocked down four times on 30 dropbacks, so he wasn’t getting bounced around in the pocket. The Saints did an excellent job of covering the Green Bay receivers, but these were the same players who had no trouble getting open a year ago, and I don’t believe they suddenly all collectively lost their ability to separate. The guys on the other side of the field were there for a reason.

The Saints’ offense also deserves credit for shutting down its counterparts. Rodgers & Co. simply weren’t on the field for most of the first half in a way that other teams will struggle to repeat. The Packers ran just 17 plays in the first half, the fewest of any team in Week 1. That would have been the second fewest for any team in any first half in 2020, and the fewest they’ve run in the first half of a Rodgers start since 2012. There were only eight drives consisting of 15 or more plays in Week 1, and the Saints had two of them in the second quarter, back-to-back.

Rodgers can’t score if he’s not on the field, but while the Packers might not have a world-class defense, I don’t have many reasons to think this will continue to be a problem. The Saints converted 50% of their third downs and went 2-for-2 on fourth down, including a fourth-and-7 conversion. A terrible roughing the passer call on Za’Darius Smith cost the defense an interception at the end of the third quarter. Green Bay finished the game with nine possessions, but backup quarterback Jordan Love came in for the final two drives of the day. Rodgers won’t have another game all season with just seven opportunities to score.

In so many ways, the formula for what drove the 2020 Packers just broke down in Week 1. The same team that turned the ball over a league-low 11 times last season had three giveaways in its season opener. The best red zone offense in modern history went scoreless on its two trips inside the 20. (The Love-led second unit was responsible for one of the giveaways and the second red zone whiff.) After converting 49.4% of their third downs a year ago, the Packers went 0-for-7 on third downs while Rodgers was in the game.

While it’s fair to expect some regression toward the mean on third down and in the red zone for these Packers, the game against the Saints warped past the mean and made the league’s most devastating offense in 2020 look like the league’s worst offense for the first week of 2021. They aren’t “due” to be terrible, and they didn’t suddenly forget how to play football. My suspicion is that they’ll look a lot different Monday night against the Lions. If they’re equally bad in Week 2 against one of the league’s worst defenses, it’ll be time to stop relaxing and start worrying.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants G NICK GATES did not go home with the team following Monday’s tough loss per Curtis Crabtree of ProFootballTalk.com:

New York Giants left guard Nick Gates is staying overnight in Washington D.C. and will have surgery in the morning on his fractured left leg.

Gates was injured on the 12th snap on Thursday night’s loss to the Washington Football Team when he was rolled up on by Daron Payne. He had an air cast put on his injured left leg on the field and left the field on a cart. Via Dan Salamone of the team’s website, Gates was taken to Inova Fairfax Hospital in Virginia.

Gates started last week’s game at center for the Giants before being kicked to guard to fill the absence of Shane Lemieiux this week. Gates had started every game of the previous two season for New York after missing his rookie season in 2018 due to injury.

Ben Bredeson took over the Gates at left guard after the injury.

– – –

The sequence of events that did in the Giants on Thursday night would be bad for any team and coaching staff – but especially so for a coach who prides himself as a stickler for detail.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Thursday Night Football ended in shocking fashion, as Washington missed a game-winning field goal as time expired, only to get another chance because Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence was flagged for jumping offside. That gave Washington another attempt from five yards closer, the kick was good, and Washington won 30-29.

Giants coach Joe Judge said afterward that it would be unfair to pin the loss on Lawrence.

“I’m not gonna put this on Dexter Lawrence,” Judge said. “There’s things we all have to do better as professionals, but I’m not gonna put this on any one player.”

Judge called the offside penalty “a tough lesson,” not only for Lawrence but for the entire team. Judge’s training camp practices gained notoriety for his requirement that players run laps for penalties, and now Judge’s team has had perhaps the most costly penalty of this NFL season.

Actually, the DB was thinking about the Giants using a timeout because two guys were late getting off the field – after another timeout.

TAMPA BAY

A thought from Ryan Clark about TE ROB GRONKOWSKI:

@Realrclark25

I can’t watch Rob Gronkowski play & not think to myself that he was so worn out in New England that he chose to retire with that much left in the tank. He’s about to have a pro bowl caliber season.

– – –

Speaking of a lot left in the tank…  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Tom Brady is under contract with the Buccaneers through the 2023 season, but he’s already given signs that he’s thinking about being in Tampa beyond that point.

Brady turned 44 this year, so pushing past 2023 would make his 50th birthday the next big milestone to reach as an active player. In a video Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski filmed for the team’s website, Gronkowski asked Brady if he can play into another decade.

“Wow. Seems to be a really hot question lately,” Brady said. “Can Tom Brady play ’til 50? Like, 50 years old? . . . I don’t find it so difficult. Plus, in Florida, it’s kind of a retiree state, so I feel like I can play and then just glide into retirement. I think I can. I think it’s a yes.”

Gronkowski went on to ask if Brady’s wife Gisele Bundchen would let him play until that point. Brady joked that is a “way better question” before saying he thinks she would as long as it would make him happy. Brady seems to continue to derive a lot of joy from being on the field, so there’s little reason to expect him to leave it anytime soon.

So when Brady is 50, MATTHEW STAFFORD and KIRK COUSINS will be 39, RUSSELL WILSON will be 38, DEREK CARR will be 35 and DESHAUN WATSON will be 32 – to name some QBs we never thought Brady would outlast but now might.

SEATTLE

An emotional loss for QB RUSSELL WILSON.  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson got emotional Thursday while remembering Trevor Moawad, a member of his inner circle who died this week from cancer at age 48.

Moawad was Wilson’s longtime mental-conditioning coach, business partner and, in the quarterback’s words, his best friend.

Asked about Moawad during his weekly news conference, Wilson paused, cleared his throat and prefaced his answer by telling reporters that the subject may be tough for him to talk about.

“When I think about my relationship with Trevor, I think about a man who was humble, I think about a man who always served, who always gave back, who was always dedicated to working and helping everyone,” Wilson said. “And everybody he helped, it seemed that they always got better.”

Wilson spoke for eight minutes straight about Moawad, first recalling when they met in 2012. Wilson was training ahead of the NFL draft at IMG Academy, where Moawad was the director of performance, a role that included mental-conditioning work with prospective NFL players. He told Wilson then that the quarterback’s mind was going to separate him. They began working together regularly after Wilson’s pro day.

“From that moment, ever since, he’s been my best friend,” Wilson said of their initial meeting at IMG. “We spent so much time together through the highest, highest, highest of the highest moments to some of the lowest moments. To the moments of winning the Super Bowl, to the moment of not winning it, unfortunately. He’s always been there for me. He’s a guy who always gave me perspective and gave me knowledge and insight.”

Wilson credits Moawad for helping him move past the Seahawks’ stunning loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX, which was decided when Malcolm Butler intercepted Wilson at the goal line. Wilson immediately left Seattle for his San Diego-area home, where Moawad moved in for about a month. At the dinner table, they talked about not letting that moment affect the rest of Wilson’s career.

Wilson often cites the importance of “neutral thinking,” a concept introduced to him by Moawad. He told ESPN in 2019 that his work with Moawad is “one of the most significant things that I do.”

Moawad — a native of Lakewood, Washington — also worked for the Jacksonville Jaguars as well as several college programs, including Alabama, Georgia and Florida State.

He and Wilson were among the co-founders of a business coaching consultancy called Limitless Minds, which takes Moawad’s teaching to the corporate world. The company tweeted a statement overnight saying Moawad had “quietly and courageously batted cancer with grace and strength” for the past two years.

“He hid it in the sense that he just didn’t want to affect other people,” Wilson said. “He didn’t want to make people feel bad for him or sorry for him, and I told him, ‘Trevor, man, people love you.'”

Wilson recalled a few of the things Moawad would regularly tell him, including an oft-repeated phrase: “The best is ahead.”

Wilson’s voice became slightly unsteady as he ended his news conference with words of appreciation for Moawad: “Last thing I’ll say is that, Trev, I thank you. I thank you. I wish I could talk to you again. But I’ll see you again. See you again. The best is ahead.”

KANSAS CITY

Oft-rumored coach Eric Bienemy and the glittering USC job?  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

The opening of the head coaching job at USC sent shockwaves through the football world and all the way to Kansas City.

Thanks to the Chiefs’ offensive explosion, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has been a hot candidate in the NFL hiring cycle for the last two seasons. His name was tossed into the ring for the USC opening by a number of individuals in tune with both college and professional football, leading to Bieniemy fielding a question on the matter Thursday.

His answer wasn’t surprising: Bieniemy is focused on the job he currently holds, not one he might be offered.

“Well you know me — you guys know me. I am where my feet are,” Bieniemy said, per ESPN.com. “So when it’s all said and done with, I am focused on the task at hand. I’m not worried about anything where my name is being mentioned. My job right now is to make sure that we’re preparing for this weekend’s opponent.”

Bieniemy has performed the duties of his job excellently in the last two seasons, helping Kansas City finish fifth and sixth in points per game in 2019 and 2020, and reaching each of the last two Super Bowls. After winning Super Bowl LIV, Bieniemy became a strong candidate for a number of openings, and following Kansas City’s return trip to Super Bowl LV, it seemed it would only be a matter of time until he ascended to a head coaching role somewhere within the NFL.

To this point, that hasn’t happened. Bieniemy was passed over by multiple teams in favor of other candidates in the most recent cycle, much to the frustration of those who know him best. None of that has affected his ability to continue to do his job under Chiefs coach Andy Reid, though.

USC simply isn’t at the forefront of Bieniemy’s mind. Instead, it’s the Ravens, who the Chiefs play Sunday night.

“I think you guys know me better than that,” Bieniemy said. “So if USC reached out to me right now, my answer would be I am preparing for this team to play against the Baltimore Ravens. And that’s how I roll, you guys know that. I am where my feet are, OK? My job is to make sure we’re ready to play a complete, sound, 60-minute football game where we can come out and win the game.”

Kansas City has been the model franchise in the NFL over the last two seasons, and Bieniemy has played no small part in its rise to the top of the league. His résumé speaks for itself. It will be up to those seeking coaching candidates to reach out to him.

With 17 weeks left in the NFL regular season, Bieniemy has a long road of work ahead of him. That could change with a call from the Trojans, but for now, he’s not wasting any time dreaming of wearing a different shade of red and gold.

USC’s shade of red is called USC Cardinal – Pantone 210C

The Chiefs red, without a name, is Pantone 186C.

LAS VEGAS

Hmmmm. Why would the members of the Ravens defense single out WR HUNTER RENFROW for a slew of egregious hits?  Vic Tafur of The Athletic:

@VicTafur

The #Raiders, I’m told, have filed a complaint with the league about all the dirty hits on receiver Hunter Renfrow in Monday night’s game. Patrick Queen was called for one, but the Raiders compiled video of several after-the-play and away-from-the ball hits.

CINCINNATI

WR TEE HIGGINS won’t wear ocho-cinco in 2022.  Ben Baby of ESPN.com:

Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins has made up his mind: This will be the last season he wears No. 85.

Initially, Higgins told Pro Football Focus’ “Fantasy Football Podcast” that he would switch to No. 5, his college number, if he scored 10 touchdowns this season. However, he removed that qualifier Thursday and said the change will happen in large part because of another No. 85 who used to play for the Bengals: Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson.

“I keep seeing on Twitter, ‘Ochocinco 2.0,'” Higgins said. “I don’t want to be a 2.0. No disrespect to Chad. He’s a great receiver, this and that. I just don’t want to be a 2.0 for myself, man. I want to be Tee Higgins, 1.0, No. 5.”

Johnson was one of the most colorful and prolific players in team history. In addition to legally changing his last name to Ochocinco at one point and being known for his touchdown celebrations, he also leads the franchise in several career categories, including receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns.

Higgins said he didn’t want the number change to be that big of a deal, and he plans on having a big second season while wearing No. 85. The team’s top receiver in 2020, Higgins had four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown in the season-opening win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

Once Higgins changes his number, there’s a decent chance he may be the last Bengals player to wear 85.

“I just feel like Chad’s done so much for this organization,” Higgins said. “I just got a good feeling that his number is gonna get lifted one day.”

HOUSTON

With a massive amount of victims and a crime that is serious, but not urgent, justice is grinding slowly in Harris County.  A thread from A.J. Perez of FrontOfficeSports:

@byajperez

It’s looking more unlikely that Deshaun Watson’s criminal inquiry over allegations of sexual misconduct will be completed before the Nov. 2 NFL trade deadline, sources tell

@FOS

@byajperez

A month has passed since it was first reported that a grand jury would decide whether Watson would face criminal charges. Sources tell me that prosecutors have yet to present the case — at least in full — to the grand jury.

@byajperez

These type of criminal investigations aren’t sprints.

Investigators have a lot of people to interview, many stemming from the 22 lawsuits filed against Watson earlier this year. There’s some hope that the grand jury will have its decision in October.

@byajperez

So, not only has the grand jury not seen/heard all (or possibly any) of the evidence, there are indications that investigators are still gathering info.

Prosecutors are often tied up with trials that can delay grand jury presentations. I’ve inquired whether that’s the case here.

@byajperez

At least four teams remain interested in trading for Watson with the Dolphins still being the frontrunner, something  @CharlesRobinson  reported previously.

@byajperez

Don’t expect the NFL to conclude its investigation before the grand jury decides. The NFL’s investigators don’t get in the way of an ongoing criminal cases. And the outcome of the criminal investigation will weigh heavily on the NFL’s decision on whether to punish Watson.

@byajperez

There’s still a chance Watson could be traded before the grand jury’s decision per sources. While most teams who have had discussions to acquire Watson want to wait for the criminal case to conclude, one source said at least one team is open to trade before then.

@byajperez

So, why hasn’t that happened?

The Texans still want a major haul of top picks in return, Watson has to approve the trade and negotiations over pick protection, which would shield the team acquiring Watson by reducing the number and/or rounds of the picks if he’s suspended.

TENNESSEE

After Week 1, RB DERRICK HENRY is calling for focus.  Dan Lyons of The Spun:

Tennessee Titans superstar Derrick Henry emerged as one of the NFL’s best running backs over the last two seasons. The team suffered one of Week 1’s biggest surprise blowout losses, falling 38-13 to the Arizona Cardinals.

Henry ran the ball 17 times, managing just 58 yards on the day. He also caught three passes for 19 yards, but was held out of the end zone completely, something that happened six times in 2020.

Sunday’s game was his lowest output since an October 2020 loss to the Buffalo Bills, when he managed just 57 yards. He ran for at least 100 in eight of the final 12 games of the season, eclipsing 200 yards three times in that span.

Speaking to the media this week, Henry made it clear that he and the team are disappointed in their poor Week 1 showing. ”We know last week wasn’t our standard,” Henry said Thursday, per the Titans website.

“We just need to come out here and focus on being better, being locked in on what we have to do, play by play, and each rep,” Henry said. “That is all we need to do. Guys are hungry to be better and just trying to put it together this week.

“We want to play to our standard, play to our identity, and we know it starts out here each and every day. Each and every rep, just locking in, working hard, focusing on what you have to do so you can go out there and play at a high level on Sunday.”

Derrick Henry, the 2019 and 2020 NFL rushing leader, is as good a bet for a big game as there is in the league. Things won’t get easier for the Titans in Week 2 though. They have another NFC West foe, the Seattle Seahawks, on the docket.

BUFFALO

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on why the Bills lost to the Steelers:

Unlike the Titans, there’s no smoking gun to point to with Buffalo’s disappointing performance. The Bills were more effective on offense and faced a much tougher defense in the Steelers, who were excellent throughout their comeback victory. The comforting thing for the Bills is that they won’t have to face the Steelers again before a possible rematch in the postseason. The only place Buffalo fans will be seeing T.J. Watt over the next few months is in their nightmares.

Watt and the rest of Pittsburgh’s pass rush had an excellent day. Crucially, the Steelers changed their game plan from last year’s loss in Buffalo and had more success doing so. In 2020, the Steelers used their blitz to pressure Josh Allen, sending an extra rusher more than 54% of the time. The pressure showed up, with Allen ending up under duress nearly 43% of the time, but the Bills did enough downfield as the game went on to overcome the pressure.

This time around, the Steelers blitzed Allen once across 55 dropbacks. As you might suspect, this is the lowest blitz rate they have posted in a single game since Mike Tomlin took over as coach in 2007. Despite keeping defenders at home, Pittsburgh was still able to get pressure on Allen nearly 31% of the time, a remarkable rate for a team that wasn’t sending extra rushers. This was just the sixth game since 2009 in which a team blitzed no more than 3% of the time and still managed to hit a 30% pressure rate.

Its pass-rushers made that happen. Watt and Cameron Heyward were arguably the two best players on the field. I’d also suggest that Buffalo’s linemen would think they should have had a better day. Both tackles struggled, with right tackle Daryl Williams having a particularly painful day against Watt. The Steelers moved Watt around the formation for a few snaps, but he typically took advantage of the right side. Watt forced a fumble on an Allen scramble and added a sack, as he spent most of the day in the Buffalo backfield. His Week 1 performance should be the NFL Players Association’s primary argument whenever the league suggests that players need training camp and the preseason to prepare for real football.

The Steelers also changed how they used one of their other young stars. Minkah Fitzpatrick was typically a slot corner with the Dolphins; but after Pittsburgh traded a 2020 first-round pick to Miami to acquire him in 2019, the Steelers moved him to free safety, where he has excelled. Fitzpatrick lined up deep against the Bills for most of his snaps in 2020, but look how that changed in his pass snaps from Sunday’s contest, via graphics from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats:

Fitzpatrick moved all around the field to try to confuse Allen, who often saw different pre- and post-snap looks. From the Bills’ perspective, their solution to these changes was to try to spread Pittsburgh out with receivers. Buffalo used four or more wide receivers more than 44% of the time. It worked out of an empty backfield 22 times — eight times more than any other team in Week 1 — but that didn’t solve things. The league as a whole averaged 7.2 yards per attempt out of empty in Week 1, but Allen was 11-of-19 passing for 86 yards, an average of just 5.1 yards per attempt.

If you’re looking for some grand statement about how this game proved Allen is about to fall back into the player he was in 2019, it’s not coming here. He wasn’t the problem for the Bills on Sunday. He had some early issues with ball location that might have cost the team a completion or two and/or some yards after catch, but every quarterback is going to do that over the course of a 51-attempt game against a great defense. Allen’s touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis was a perfectly thrown ball. If anything, the Bills were relying on Allen too much; through designed runs, read concepts and run-pass options, he had eight carries between the tackles on Sunday. This was a close game against a conference rival, but it’s also a long season for a player the franchise just gave $258 million.

Instead, the Bills just weren’t able to sustain drives the same way they did a year ago. They were the league’s best offense on third and fourth down then, converting 49.7% of their third-down attempts and going 8-for-10 on fourth down. They were 8-of-19 (42.1%) on third down on Sunday, but five of those eight conversions came on just two of their possessions. Last season, the Bills were the eighth-best team in generating expected points per play on third down; they were 19th in the same category on Sunday.

Fourth down was a bigger problem. Buffalo came up short on two of its three fourth-down tries, meaning it has now failed as many times on fourth down in 2021 as it did in 2020. The backward pass to Matt Breida for one of those failures is not fit for viewing on a Disney website. Bills coach Sean McDermott also elected to punt on fourth-and-short twice in Steelers territory during the first half, while a third drive on the edge of field goal range failed when Allen was strip-sacked. I would imagine McDermott might be more amenable to going for it in those situations against a less imposing defense, and I suspect the Bills would have more success with their tries.

So, did the Steelers reveal a blueprint for shutting down one of 2020’s most explosive offenses? If you have Watt and Heyward, the answer is yes. Otherwise, I don’t think there’s some new solution here. Every team that watched Super Bowl LV saw the Bucs shut down the Chiefs with their front four, but even a Browns team with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney didn’t have enough for a similar showing on Sunday. There are little things requiring attention here and there for the Bills, but their biggest problem in Week 1 was facing a dominant defense.

THIS AND THAT

2022 DRAFT

A Mock Draft from Josh Edwards of CBSSports.com:

The history of teams making three first-round picks in one NFL Draft is more extensive than maybe realized. The Giants and Raiders each had three as part of the 2019 NFL Draft, while Cleveland accomplished the same feat two years earlier when they selected Myles Garrett. If Carson Wentz plays in at least 13 games for the Colts this season, Philadelphia should receive its third first-round selection from Indianapolis. How will general manager Howie Roseman use those resources?

The draft order below was determined using SportsLine’s Super Bowl odds but in reverse order.

Let’s kick this thing off!

NFL MOCK DRAFT

1  HOUSTON

 Spencer Rattler QB

OKLAHOMA • SOPH • 6’1″ / 200 LBS

A lone quarterback prospect has not emerged as the alpha in this class, but Spencer Rattler allows Houston to turn the page on a new chapter in the franchise’s history.

2  DETROIT

Derek Stingley Jr. CB

LSU • JR • 6’1″ / 195 LBS

There was optimism surrounding Jeff Okudah coming into the season, but between his coach chewing him out on the sideline and the injury, it was a tough display in Week 1. In an ideal world, he will still develop into a top-flight cornerback in this league, but Detroit brings in some insurance in case that does not happen on its timeline.

3  NY JETS

Kayvon Thibodeaux DE

OREGON • SOPH • 6’5″ / 258 LBS

The injury to Carl Lawson was unfortunate, but New York was probably not competing for the division this year anyway. When he returns, the Jets will have Lawson on one side and Kayvon Thibodeaux on the other with Quinnen Williams inside. Robert Saleh can win with that front.

4  JACKSONVILLE

Kyle Hamilton S

NOTRE DAME • JR • 6’4″ / 219 LBS

Jacksonville was aggressive in upgrading the secondary this offseason — which is fine if you add the right players — but the strategy was more or less adding the most expensive players available. Kyle Hamilton is a player that can be moved all over the field and used in a way that could confuse offenses.

5 – NY GIANTS

Drake Jackson LB

USC • JR • 6’4″ / 250 LBS

The first of two Giants first-round picks go towards an edge rusher. In all honesty, if New York is picking this high, then changes are likely being made to the personnel staff, and that often creates high turnover. The team could go in any number of directions in that event.

6  CINCINNATI

Evan Neal OL

ALABAMA • JR • 6’7″ / 350 LBS

Cincinnati’s starting tackles performed well in Week 1, but at the end of the day, Riley Reiff is 32-years-old and on a one-year deal. The Bengals have to be aggressive in protecting Joe Burrow. It is an ideal situation since Evan Neal already has comfort playing right tackle.

7  PHILADELPHIA

Kenyon Green OL

TEXAS A&M • JR • 6’4″ / 325 LBS

Philadelphia made a big commitment to Aussie Jordan Mailata recently, but the interior offensive line is aging and Howie Roseman has already proven how much he values a quality offensive line.

8  LAS VEGAS

Garrett Wilson WR

OHIO STATE • JR • 6’0″ / 192 LBS

A first-round selection by the Raiders is almost a kiss of death when you review recent history. I believe Garrett Wilson is bust-proof and will add another dimension of play-making ability that Henry Ruggs III has been unable to provide up to this point.

9   NY GIANTS (from Chicago)

Andrew Booth Jr. CB

CLEMSON • JR • 6’0″ / 200 LBS

This is a steep price to pay for a third cornerback, which is what Booth would be based on how much James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson are being paid. However, Bradberry will be 29-years-old next year and Jackson carries the stench of a recent injury history. Cornerback is not necessarily the biggest position of need, but the board happened to fall in this way. Having depth at cornerback will help Giants’ fans rest easily next season.

10  CAROLINA

Jaxson Kirkland OL

WASHINGTON • JR • 6’7″ / 310 LBS

It is evident that Carolina’s offensive line is holding on by a thread. Supplementing that unit will go a long way in giving Sam Darnold a fighting chance to be the long-term solution at the position.

11  ATLANTA

Carson Strong QB

NEVADA • JR • 6’4″ / 215 LBS

I was adamant in my belief that Atlanta should draft a quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft with an eye towards the future. Instead, the Falcons took a tight end who could be in his third or fourth season before they start a rookie quarterback. Carson Strong is a mature quarterback who can learn a lot from Matt Ryan.

12  WASHINGTON

Sam Howell QB

NORTH CAROLINA • JR • 6’1″ / 225 LBS

Washington also takes the leap at quarterback. Even in an ideal situation where Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to stay healthy and lead the team to playoff contention, he was always just a stop-gap.

13  MINNESOTA

Derion Kendrick DB

GEORGIA • SR • 6’0″ / 190 LBS

Minnesota has put a lot of assets towards addressing the cornerback position over the past two years, but that unit was still pretty awful in Week 1 against the Bengals. Mike Zimmer takes another swing at the piñata and hopes candy falls out this time.

14  DENVER

Jordan Davis DL

GEORGIA • SOPH • 6’6″ / 330 LBS

Age is becoming a concern for Denver’s interior defenders, so resources are filtered in that direction. Teddy Bridgewater looked good in Week 1, so perhaps that continues or the team brings in a veteran to play the position.

15   NEW ENGLAND

Chris Olave WR

OHIO STATE • SR • 6’1″ / 188 LBS

New England has taken some shots at improving the wide receiver position, but I am not sure the compilation of N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne is firing anyone up in Foxboro. Chris Olave would give Bill Belichick a talented player who he can trust to be in the right spot on the field.

16  PHILADELPHIA (from Indianapolis)

DeMarvin Leal DL

TEXAS A&M • JR • 6’4″ / 290 LBS

If Carson Wentz plays in at least 13 games for the Colts this season — and he should if he stays healthy — then the conditional second-round pick should convert into Philadelphia’s third first-round pick. The Eagles address an aging defensive line with the addition of DeMarvin Leal.

17  TENNESSEE

Jalen Wydermyer TE

TEXAS A&M • JR • 6’5″ / 255 LBS

The Titans are missing Jonnu Smith more than maybe even they anticipated. The addition of Jalen Wydermyer would help spread defenses out.

18  PITTSBURGH

Aidan Hutchinson DE

MICHIGAN • SR • 6’6″ / 265 LBS

Aidan Hutchinson just feels like a Steelers pick. He is a high-motor Big Ten performer much like T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward. Hutchinson ushers in a new era of the Pittsburgh defensive line.

19   PHILADELPHIA (from Miami)

 Kaiir Elam CB

FLORIDA • JR • 6’2″ / 196 LBS

Remodeling continues with Philadelphia adding Kaiir Elam to go along with Kenyon Green and DeMarvin Leal. If Jalen Hurts continues to play at a high level, quarterback will not be a need. The Eagles would be in a good position to turn things around quickly.

20  LA CHARGERS

Ainias Smith WR

TEXAS A&M • JR • 5’10” / 190 LBS

I was torn between a few players, but giving Brandon Staley a talent like Ainias Smith could lead to some fascinating innovations. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Smith gives Justin Herbert a lot of weapons. I could also see them considering a tight end if a worthy selection was available.

21   DALLAS

Kingsley Enagbare LB

SOUTH CAROLINA • SR • 6’4″ / 260 LBS

DeMarcus Lawrence’s seasons seem to go one of two ways: he plays in every game or he misses at least half the season. Unfortunately, the latter seems to be true of the 29-year old in 2021. Nevertheless, Dallas has an apparent need for more juice coming off the edge.

22  ARIZONA

Ahmad Gardner CB

CINCINNATI • JR • 6’2″ / 188 LBS

Admittedly, Arizona’s cornerbacks played better than anticipated. It would be wise for them to explore ways to upgrade that spot, however. If the season comes to an end and the level of play remains high, then maybe this conversation turns. For now, Ahmad Gardner would be a welcomed addition.

23 NEW ORLEANS

Joseph Ngata WR

CLEMSON • SOPH • 6’3″ / 220 LBS

Sean Payton and the offensive line are the New Orleans offense. As long as those two components are operating at a high level, the rest of the offense will go. Without Michael Thomas, the Saints were still able to be productive through the air without household names at receiver.

24  NY JETS (from Seattle)

Devin Lloyd LB

UTAH • JR • 6’3″ / 235 LBS

I see a bit of Fred Warner in Devin Lloyd, so it would make sense for Robert Saleh to be drawn to that fit. I could also see them targeting a cornerback if that happened to be the best player available.

25  CLEVELAND

George Pickens WR

GEORGIA • JR • 6’3″ / 200 LBS

Cleveland is staring down contract extensions for Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward and potentially Wyatt Teller and David Njoku. Those cost increases could lead to difficult decisions of parting with one or both of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. The Browns’ receiver room is already in better shape with Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz and Rashard Higgins, but it would not come as a surprise to see them attempt to add an alpha in that room.

26  BALTIMORE

Sean Rhyan OL

UCLA • JR • 6’5″ / 320 LBS

The offensive tackle position was a problem for the Ravens on Monday night. Baltimore took a chance on Alejandro Villanueva this season, but that is like putting a band-aid on a compound fracture

27   GREEN BAY

Christian Harris LB

ALABAMA • JR • 6’2″ / 232 LBS

Changes are coming for Green Bay beyond the Aaron Rodgers saga. The Smiths’ situation will be addressed sooner rather than later because Rashan Gary is playing well enough to warrant a new contract. Linebacker was already a concern. Christian Harris is brought in to add some youthful invigoration to that front seven.

28  MIAMI (from San Francisco)

Nick Broeker OL

OLE MISS • JR • 6’5″ / 305 LBS

Austin Jackson and Jesse Davis serving as the bookend tackles does not exactly inspire a lot of confidence. It is tough to elevate expectations of Tua Tagovailoa when protection can not be expected to hold up.

29   BUFFALO

Tyler Linderbaum OL

IOWA • JR • 6’3″ / 290 LBS

Buffalo could save over $7 million by moving on from Mitch Morse next offseason. Tyler Linderbaum represents a potential upgrade at the spot as well.

30  DETROIT (from Los Angeles Rams)

Justyn Ross WR

CLEMSON • JR • 6’4″ / 205 LBS

Detroit’s roster needs a lot of work, so it would be foolish to suggest that wide receiver is the team’s only issue. It is an issue, however. Drafting a cornerback and wide receiver in the first round does not seem like something a kneecap-biter might do, but it does bring more talent into the building.

31   TAMPA BAY

DJ Dale DL

ALABAMA • JR • 6’3″ / 307 LBS

Tampa Bay is replacing aging, expensive pieces of its roster one at a time. It is the only way to sustain championship aspirations. Ndamukong Suh is the one moving on in this scenario.

32   KANSAS CITY

Akayleb Evans DB

MISSOURI • SR • 6’2″ / 198 LBS

L’Jarius Sneed has a promising future, but the spot opposite him has been an issue. The team brought in to former first-round picks, Mike Hughes and DeAndre Baker, in an effort to find a long-term solution, but that remains a dream.