The Daily Briefing Friday, September 24, 2021

Word on Thursday night was that the NFL would hold a Wild Card playoff game on Monday night this season and the league made it official on Friday morning.

The league will hold it’s first Monday night playoff game on January 17 to wrap up Wild Card weekend. That game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET and the league said that the broadcaster for the game has not been determined.

CBS and NBC are each set to broadcast two Wild Card games while FOX and ABC/ESPN will both be handling one game. Two games will be played on Saturday and three on Sunday before things wrap up on Monday night.

The expansion to a 17-game regular season helped clear the way for the move to Monday night. In past years, the NFL would have a conflict with the college football title game, but pushing things back a week opened the spot for the league.

Presumably, the winner of the Monday Night game will at least be allowed to play the next week on Sunday.  And hopefully against a team that didn’t play on Saturday in Super Wild Card Weekend or otherwise there would be a two-day advantage in rest.

– – –

Flags have been flying the first two weeks of the NFL season – and not just for taunting.  Legendary scribe Rick Gosselin is perturbed:

@RickGosselin9

There’s a red flag for NFL officiating: through 17 weeks in 2020, there was never a weekend when 200 penalties were assessed. The high was 198 penalties in Week 2. This season, officials assessed 214 penalties in Week 1 and 221 more in Week 2. This trend needs to be reversed.

– – –

The NFL may take it’s Sunday Ticket Package to Big Tech Apple.  Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic explores the ramifications:

The NFL’s much-discussed Sunday Ticket package is in the news of late, with one report having Amazon as the lead contender to acquire the out-of-market games that are up for bid, while another touts Disney’s ESPN empire as interested.

All fair, but it’s still early in the process, and sources say the NFL wants — or perhaps, better termed, hopes — Apple gets the out-of-market package. And that package could look a lot different structurally than the one DirecTV has shopped since its inception in 1994, charging a basic rate for all the games. Under consideration is adding choices like allowing fans to buy just one team’s out-of-market games, or perhaps even stand-alone games, sources said.

“Everything is on the table,” one source said, but nothing is set in stone.

DirecTV is paying on average $1.5 billion a year in a deal that stretches through the end of next season. All indications are the satellite carrier’s parent AT&T has no interest in renewing, especially at the $2 billion-plus per year fee the NFL is reportedly seeking. AT&T has struggled financially, and talks with the NFL in recent years have proved unproductive.

So, why would the NFL prefer a bite of Apple (sorry, couldn’t resist)? The league already has a deep partnership with Amazon, which provides stats through Amazon Web Services, and will pay $1 billion annually starting next year for exclusive rights to Thursday Night Football after carrying the midweek games nonexclusively since 2017. And the league has long been intertwined with ESPN, which surely could juice its streaming service, ESPN+, with Sunday Ticket.

Apple, which did not reply for comment, is investing heavily in Apple TV+, home to hits like “Ted Lasso” but not live sports. However, unlike Amazon, which is a retailer, and ESPN, a content company, the NFL with Apple would for the first time be doing business on a large scale with the preeminent technology giant. It would marry the NFL with the company that sells arguably the globe’s most critical consumer product, the iPhone.

“Apple is different from Amazon in the sense that they are still a technological device company,” said Patrick Crakes, a TV consultant and formerly an executive with Fox Sports. “So that diversifies the league — or the league’s always believed in an inclusive diversified kind of network mix. Apple is a different company than Amazon, even though people talk about them in the same breath. They’re very different. So I can see how the league might view that as a great diversification to their portfolio for the next decade.”

There are also reports the Sunday Ticket deal could be paired with an equity position in NFL Media, so aligning with a company like Apple could be viewed favorably by the NFL.

The NFL declined to comment. A source close to the league had this to offer: “(T)here is a ton of interest in this product from a lot of companies you could probably guess (yes, Apple is one) and probably several others that might not be top of mind. … We will see how it ultimately shakes out, but I wouldn’t say anything is imminent here.”

And that’s about right, with the earliest the league might agree to a deal months away.

“You are going to hear a lot of different names get tossed around,” Crakes said. “All of this stuff can be true. ESPN can be involved. Amazon can be out front. And Apple can be preferred. And none of it means anything, right? That’s the problem with it.”

Crakes is not as bullish on the Sunday Ticket package as some. Off the bat, the buyer has to treat the deal as a loss leader (meaning it loses money but serves a strategic purpose). DirecTV charges about $300 a year for the games ($400 for those who also want add-ons like RedZone), though it often packages Sunday Ticket as free in other offerings and discounts. For example, it is currently offered for free to subscribers of its Choice tier. There are roughly 2 million Sunday Ticket subscribers, though Crakes estimates only half pay the full fare. That brings in well less than half of the rights fee.

For DirecTV, it’s a marketing expense, so Sunday Ticket almost surely would have to be treated as such by the interested companies, whether Apple, Amazon or others. Apple charges $4.99 a month for its TV stream, or $59.88 a year, so it would need to sell over 33 million subscriptions to make a $2 billion fee work — unless it views Sunday Ticket largely as akin to an advertising expense.

Could others be interested? Network partners CBS and NBC have their own streaming services, the two Ps: Paramount+ and Peacock, respectively. And Netflix, which has long said it’s not interested in sports rights, just put its nose under the proverbial tent, saying it might bid on Formula 1 rights.

And about Netflix, former NFL Media CEO Steve Bornstein recently said at a Sportico conference that it’s a question of when and not if Netflix gets into live sports. This argument looks at sports as a way for streamers to offer programming that distinguishes them from the many movies and TV shows that litter these services.

Back to Crakes’ worries over the Sunday Ticket value. There is the loss leader issue, but he also questions whether Sunday Ticket is really a must-have for most fans.

“So, first of all, I’ve got four national windows, right?” he said. “So on broadcast television, most of the games are on fully distributed pay TV. And so this product is for Sunday, daytime, it’s for games. It’s not going to be for the top game right here in the market. It’s not the top national game, right? That national game ends up in the master window somehow. So this is for true fans and for people who want to either have an ecosystem where they can flip around, but there’s RedZone for that.”

Many have been wrong before when arguing the NFL would suffer for creating more windows and packages. (Looking at you, Mark Cuban.) And the first two weeks of the NFL season further solidifies the incredible hold football has on American media. According to Fox Sports head of strategy Michael Mulvihill, since the season started, the 14 most-watched shows on TV are either NFL games or pregame shows. So everything Crakes argues might be right, but chances are the NFL will still roll in the Sunday Ticket cash, whether from Apple or some other company eager to hitch its train to the football popularity steamroller.

MINNESOTA

TE KYLE RUDOLPH, safely in Jersey, with a shot across the bow of Mike Zimmer.  Ethan Thomas of ZoneCoverage.com:

Mike Zimmer is an excellent defensive coach with an impressive resume. No one disputes his ability to develop talent and scheme opponents. The loudest criticism of Zimmer during his tenure with the Minnesota Vikings has been his overwhelming focus on the defense.

Many on the outside feel Zimmer is too invested in coaching his favorite side of the ball and doesn’t give a fair share of bandwidth to the rest of the team.

Kyle Rudolph certainly isn’t helping tamp down those feelings. Now in his first season with the New York Giants, Rudolph, let a subtle shot at his former head coach slip in a Tuesday press conference.

Rudolph said:

To me, it’s the first time I’ve had a head coach who’s not a defensive coordinator. So, it’s a head coach that’s in charge of the entire team.

He certainly didn’t go nuclear on his former coach but the phrasing in the second part of his statement, “the entire team,” is a pretty damning indictment of how he believes things were run during his time in Minnesota.

Rudolph certainly isn’t the first person wearing purple to feel this way. From a disgruntled Stefon Diggs to an enraged Norv Turner through a spinning wheel of offensive coordinators Minnesota certainly hasn’t been an offensive oasis during Zimmer‘s tenure.

The timing of this comment may allow it to fall on deaf ears after the Vikings looked exceptional on offense against the Arizona Cardinals. And Zimmer certainly has bigger things to worry about after an 0-2 start than what a scorned tight end thinks, but as his hot seat continues to heat up, having former players add validity to negative public sentiment is not necessarily a good thing for the head coach.

We knew that Rudolph’s arrival in Minnesota preceeded Zimmer’s taking the position in 2014.  So we reminded ourselves that in 2011 to 2013, Rudolph’s head coach with the Vikings was indeed another defensive coordinator – Leslie Frazier.

For the record, Zimmer’s Vikings are 15^th in the NFL in scoring during his tenure at 23.3 points per game.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Big money WR KENNY GOLLADAY sounds iffy for Sunday with the Falcons:

@art_stapleton

Giants WR Kenny Golladay, limited yesterday due to a hip injury, was not doing much in individual drills during media access period.

Evan Engram had a “good” day yesterday, per Joe Judge, an upgrade from the “decent” day Monday. He was participating.

PHILADELPHIA

The media seems to think that Coach Nick Sirianni proclaiming the Eagles goal is to beat Dallas by a tee-shirt is controversial.  Tim McManus of ESPN.com:

Nick Sirianni is not easing his way into his first game against the rival Dallas Cowboys.

The Philadelphia Eagles coach sported a “Beat Dallas” shirt to his news conference Thursday, a refrain he’s heard more from the fans than any other since taking over as head coach in January.

“I really love the fact that I’m able to partake in this rivalry and it means a lot to the city, to our team; it means a lot to this building,” he said.

“I’ll be wearing this all week. My kids got it, my wife has one. And, yeah, we’ll be wearing them.”

They’re not the only ones embracing this NFC East rivalry. Right tackle Lane Johnson said the whole team got shirts. Sirianni also showed a video during a team meeting Wednesday morning highlighting the history between the two franchises, according to Johnson.

Sirianni said of all the NFL rivalries, this one reminds him the most of a classic college football rivalry. He’s comfortable embracing it, even if wearing the T-shirt gives Dallas a little bulletin board material.

“Yeah, I’m sure they’re going to have the picture of this shirt on there. And that’s fine,” he said. “With the rivalry and it being a division game, I don’t know if anyone needs — our side, their side — needs any more bulletin board material or if it’s even going to help, because we know how big the rivalry is and how much it means to both sides.”

There were no “Beat Philly” shirts in Dallas, but Ezekiel Elliott was wearing a sweatshirt that read, “VICTORY.”

“It means a lot. I mean definitely probably our biggest rival, especially since I’ve been here,” Elliott said. “Probably the team I don’t like the most. But Philly week is always fun. I know AT&T is going to be electric Monday night … I think we’re ready to go.”

Would Elliott like to see his coach, Mike McCarthy, wear a T-shirt that reads “Beat Philly” or something worse?

“Nah, we stay in our lane,” he said.

Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs also offered his opinion on Sirianni’s news conference attire.

“Nothing for real. I really don’t try and pay attention to outside factors, outside of our organization. I just focus on what we’re focusing on … so it don’t bother me,” Diggs said.

CAROLINA

The Panthers are 3-0, but their depth will be tested in the weeks ahead with the loss of rookie CB JAYCEE HORN and RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY.

A report on Thursday night indicated Panthers first-round pick Jaycee Horn broke his foot during the team’s 24-9 win over the Texans and head coach Matt Rhule confirmed the nature of the cornerback’s injury after the game.

Rhule said that Horn “broke some bones” in his foot and that doctors would do a “full workup” to determine the extent of the injuries. Rhule said he doesn’t believe that Horn suffered a Lisfranc injury, but that he was unsure about any recovery timeline at this point.

“I have no idea,” Rhule said. “I honest to goodness have no idea.”

The Panthers also had safety Juston Burris go down with a muscle pull and Rhule said he was also in the dark about how long he’ll be out of the lineup. The Panthers also had running back Christian McCaffrey leave with a hamstring injury, so it sounds like they’ll need every minute of their extra time off before facing the Cowboys in Week Four.

Update on Horn from Adam Schefter:

@RapSheet

#Panthers stud CB Jaycee Horn will be looked at this morning more extensively, but the fear is he broke multiple bones in the metatarsal area in his foot, sources said. Surgery is an option & likely looking at 2-3 month recovery. That means a late-season return or season-ending.

As to replacing McCaffrey?  Matt Rhule challenges his two in-house options.

The Panthers don’t know how long they’ll be without running back Christian McCaffrey as a result of the hamstring injury he suffered on Thursday night, but they do know who will be filling in while he’s out of action.

Royce Freeman and fourth-round pick Chuba Hubbard took over in the backfield after McCaffrey left the game in the second quarter. Hubbard got stuffed on a fourth down a short time later and the Panthers were only up one at halftime, but things began to open up for them in the second half.

Head coach Matt Rhule said both players stepped up and he made it clear what he’s looking for from the duo while McCaffrey is out of action.

“Yeah, I think they just have to be starting NFL running backs, and Royce has done that before,” Rhule said in his postgame press conference. “I told Chuba at halftime, ‘That’s why we drafted you, man.’ I thought Chuba was outstanding. At the end of the half, we didn’t give him a ton of chances, but I thought he got in there at the end and made some key runs. When we can line up in four-minute offense and run and get the first down on two plays, especially versus that stout defense, that’s a credit to the offensive line, credit to the tight ends and full backs. I thought those backs hit it, and the minute Royce got in he made that nice run, cut the ball back on a dual play, which that’s a veteran-run. That’s a guy that’s played a bunch and saw it. Those guys stepped up for us.”

Hubbard had two carries for 26 yards to set up the team’s final touchdown and two carries for 12 yards to help run out the clock on Carolina’s final possession. The coming weeks should bring more opportunities for the rookie to show that he’s able to be what Rhule is looking for in the offense.

TAMPA BAY

Shalise Manza Young of YahooSports.com makes the argument that 44-year-old TOM BRADY is his best self and getting better.

Tom Brady came into the game at quarterback for the New England Patriots.

The trite thing to say here is “the rest is history,” but holy hell what a history. And almost as remarkably, there’s still a present.

Brady’s origin story on its own is movie script-worthy. He, by his telling, was the least athletic of the four Brady kids, three girls and one boy, raised in Northern California; began as the seventh quarterback on the depth chart at the University of Michigan, and had to endure a two-QB system because then-head coach Lloyd Carr wanted to appease a recruit with the better pedigree; was the 199th pick in the 2000 draft and seventh quarterback taken that year; made the roster as a rookie as the No. 4 on the depth chart, nearly unheard of back then, and even more now; and ultimately worked his way up to the backup position by the end of that year.

When Bledsoe woke up on Sept. 23, 2001, he did so as New England’s franchise quarterback. Just months earlier he’d signed a then-record $103 million contract that seemingly cemented him as a Patriot for life.

When Brady woke up that morning, he was a skinny, hardworking kid who had completed exactly one career pass as a professional.

When head coach Bill Belichick awoke that morning, it was with a 5-12 record as Patriots head coach and local media already questioning whether he was worth the fuss. A year earlier, Belichick had accepted the head coaching job with the New York Jets but then scribbled his resignation on a napkin to take the job with New England. After a negotiation, team owner Robert Kraft wound up having to send the team’s first-round draft pick in 2000 to the Jets.

And while the Patriots had gone to the Super Bowl five years earlier under Bill Parcells, nationally they didn’t register often, and even regionally they were at least third behind the Boston Red Sox and Boston Celtics in terms of interest.

Then Lewis hit Bledsoe, and Brady entered the game — though that was only after Bledsoe came on for another series and tried to play.

“Everyone knew Tom had the goods,” ESPN analyst and former Patriots offensive tackle Damien Woody told Yahoo Sports this week. Woody had a front-row seat for the start of Brady’s ascendance and still watches from afar. “The intangibles, they were oozing out: smart, very driven, command, good teammate, just worked his butt off behind the scenes. You just saw Tom methodically work his way up the depth chart, so none of it was a surprise. He was very coachable and you knew if this dude got a shot, you might have something here. I could see him making things happen. That’s not just my take, but I think it’s fair to say there were a lot of guys that felt the same way.”

Bledsoe’s injuries from the Lewis hit wound up being pretty severe. His blood pressure spiked right after the game, leading the Patriots’ medical staff to get him an ambulance, and at the hospital it was discovered he had a collapsed lung and internal bleeding. Even though he was out for weeks, initially Bledsoe thought he’d get the chance to win his job back.

He never did.

Woody said despite Bledsoe’s disappointment, he was the “ultimate professional,” and didn’t let his own feelings get in the way of the team’s goals.

As Woody notes, back then the Patriots were strong defensively, so Brady didn’t have to carry the team. After taking a couple of weeks to find his stride (he was 25-for-47 for just 254 yards with no touchdowns and no picks in his first two starts), New England went 10-2 over the last 12 weeks of the regular season, and then went on an unforgettable postseason run that culminated in the Patriots, who were flat-out embarrassed in their previous two Super Bowl appearances, finally winning the Lombardi Trophy

At not even 25 years old, Brady had reached his sport’s mountaintop. An icon was born.

Tom Brady’s greatness hasn’t dimmed over 20 years

The incredible thing — the really amazing thing, and the thing that, truthfully, was the impetus for this column — is Brady is still playing. And not just collecting a paycheck and wearing a headset as the teacher/backup to some up-and-comer. He’s the starting quarterback of the reigning Super Bowl champions and according to at least two people who have watched him play for years, there are some aspects of his game, even as a 44-year-old in his 22nd year, that seem better than at any other point in his career.

“He is playing at a Pro Bowl level and looks like he has not slowed down at all,” said a front office executive who was with the Patriots for several years. The executive is still in the league and requested anonymity. “No signs of aging, faster than he has ever been in terms of mental processing and arm strength is better than ever.”

“I see aspects of his game that have gotten better,” Woody said, almost incredulously. “Physical aspects, to me, have gotten better. His arm seems stronger now, which is crazy.”

Think about that. We’re not talking about a kicker playing at a Pro Bowl level at 44, we’re talking about a quarterback. Yes he’s protected, but you can still be planted by a 280-pound defensive end blowing through the line, and no matter if you’re 24 or 44, that doesn’t feel good. (Brady’s been sacked three times and hit eight through two games this season.)

I covered the Patriots every day as a beat reporter from 2006 to 2015, and even seven or eight years ago talking heads were predicting this would be the year Brady’s play would just fall off a cliff. Such talk has been heard pretty much every year since. Opposing personnel execs thought it was coming, though maybe that was just wishful thinking.

Tampa Bay has scored 79 points in two games, and Brady has nine touchdown passes. During the Bucs’ 10-game win streak that dates to last season and includes the playoffs, he has 31 touchdowns and six interceptions. Quarterbacks literally half his age would do anything for that kind of ratio.

In the entire 101-year history of the NFL, only three other quarterbacks have started a game at age 44: George Blanda, Steve DeBerg and Vinny Testaverde. In a combined 26 starts at that age, they threw 11 total touchdowns against 12 picks.

Brady’s play right now feels like it’s being overlooked, and that just can’t happen.

Maybe it’s because Brady has been so good for so long. Maybe it’s his long allegiance with the dour Belichick, who makes even the biggest wins feel as joyous as a stubbed toe. Maybe it’s the controversies in which they were involved while Brady was in New England. Maybe it’s a little bit of all of those things.

But 20 years after one of the most improbable NFL careers began, to see Brady not just still playing but thriving, it can’t be understated.

The Bucs, like the Patriots, gained prominence thanks to Brady

He’s done the same thing he did back then: lead a perpetually mediocre franchise to the NFL’s Promised Land. The standard for Patriots fans now after such a long stretch of dominance isn’t just making the playoffs, it’s the AFC championship at minimum. Meanwhile for the Buccaneers, outside of a four-year stretch under Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden, the bulk of the national conversation around them centered around their uniforms, and more recently how many interceptions Jameis Winston was throwing.

“We look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a totally different light now. Because of who? Because of Tom,” Woody said. “We’ve looked at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a sorry-ass franchise, and now we look at them at the best team in the league, and that’s largely due to one guy.

“Now, the Buccaneers have some really good players, but when you’ve got a quarterback with the pedigree that Tom has and he comes in, the dude changed the culture. Changed the way we think about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s the impact he’s had on that organization.”

His pace is likely unsustainable, but Brady’s current touchdown total played out over a 17-game season would put him at an unreal 76.5.

Then again, at this point can we doubt anything he might do on the field?

“It’s ridiculous and unheard of,” the front office exec said.

“People need to take it all in and appreciate it because we might not see anything like this ever again. Someone that’s 44 years old playing better than he did 10 years ago probably? And that’s not slighting what he was doing 10 years ago,” Woody said.

We’re not asking you to drop two bills on a pewter Brady jersey. Just watch and marvel. He might play one more season, he might play five more as he recently intimated. No matter how much longer it lasts, we won’t see anything like it again anytime soon.

SEATTLE

The enemy is taking advantage of the competitive fire that burns within WR DK METCALF.  He knows it, but can he mitigate his passion?  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:

DK Metcalf believes opponents are trying to bait him into losing his cool, even more often than they did during his 2020 Pro Bowl season.

And the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver says he has to do a better job of not biting.

“For sure,” Metcalf said Thursday, when asked if defenders are trying to take him out of his game by getting in his head. “They can’t stop me any other way or stop Tyler [Lockett] any other way. So the best thing they can do is just try to talk stuff to me.”

Or, as he more colorfully put it when asked what teams are doing differently against him in Year 3: “Talking s—. That’s it.”

Through two games, Metcalf has been involved with several chippy moments with defenders, some of which lasted through the whistle. He’s also been flagged four times, including once for taunting after a Seattle touchdown in the second quarter of the opener. That pushed the Seahawks back 15 yards on the ensuing kickoff, allowing the Indianapolis Colts to start a drive that led to a touchdown at the 32.

“He was really jacked for both games, early in them, and tried too much to have an impact,” coach Pete Carroll said. “He’s finding his way. He’s so prepared to go for it and he’s finding his way. He had a couple of penalties that were costly because he was going overboard a little bit.”

Metcalf agreed with Carroll’s assessment:

“He’s completely right,” he said. “I’m an emotional person. I play with a competitive edge and I’m not trying to lose anything whether that’s an argument or a route, anything. So I’m just going to compete my butt off … get close to the line but don’t cross it.”

How does he do that?

“Knowing myself and knowing that they’re trying to get to me and trying to get me to cross that line,” he said. “But there’s a bigger prize at the end of the tunnel, so not just falling into the trap and knowing that I play for a team, not just for myself.”

HOUSTON

As QB DESHAUN WATSON watched the Texans and QB DAVIS MILLS struggle Thursday night, his heart felt no sympathy for the team that is paying him to do nothing.  Darrelle Lincoln of TotalProSports.com:

Deshaun Watson may be dealing with a lot off the field with sexual assault cases, but it has not changed his mind on wanting out from the Houston Texans franchise.

A source tells ESPN’s Ed Werder that Texans QB Deshaun Watson remains committed to forcing a trade out of Houston and does not care how long it takes.

“A source says Deshaun Watson remains committed to forcing his exit from Houston, no matter how long that might take. The source close to Watson said, “If you’re paying him $10 million to sit this year, you don’t think he would take $30 million and sit next year?’’

Watson has been rumored to be a target of the Miami Dolphins, but those trade talks are on the back burner with Tua Tagovailoa set to miss some time with a rib injury.

A.J. Perez of Front Office Sports last week that Watson’s criminal inquiry regarding several allegations of sexual misconduct will be completed before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2. Perez confirmed that there are at least four teams still interested in trading for Watson with the Dolphins still being the “frontrunner.”

The Texans reportedly want a major haul of draft picks in return, but Watson has to agree to any trade as he does have a no-trade clause.

Prior reports have linked the Dolphins, Eagles, Panthers, and Broncos to Watson.

The 25-year-old signed a four-year deal worth as much as $177 million heading into the 2020 season, paying him $39 million a year.

In 2020, Watson appeared in all 16 games for the Texans and completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 4,823 yards with 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also rushed for 444 yards and three touchdowns.

INDIANAPOLIS

QB NICK FOLES is on the radar of Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com:

From a football standpoint, a Nick Foles-Frank Reich reunion makes too much sense. If it winds up happening, it probably won’t be next week, but I think it should.

The Colts have a playoff-contending team that can’t contend for the playoffs with Jacob Eason and/or Brett Hundley at starting quarterback. Carson Wentz hasn’t been 100 percent since the first week of August, and the Colts have to hedge against a reaggravation at some point.

Sam Ehlinger, the preferred No. 2 quarterback, suffered a sprained knee in the preseason finale and still has a couple of weeks left in his rehab. Plus, he’s still just a rookie.

The Bears wouldn’t part with Foles, who will be QB2 on Sunday, until Andy Dalton returns to health. But once Dalton is back, Foles becomes tradeable. A reasonable deal would be a late-round pick from Indy to Chicago for Foles, who’d probably have to rework his deal in some way for the Colts to take him on.

Wentz’s psyche has to be considered and bringing Foles in could impact that. But Reich has to be more concerned with getting back to the playoffs than hurt feelings. The NFL trade deadline isn’t until Nov. 2, so there’s still time, but the Colts should look to fortify the QB position with someone who knows the playbook through and through.

The situation generates this tweet from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

@MichaelDavSmith

Chris Ballard sure does get a lot of praise for a GM who’s in Year 5, has a losing record, and has consistently failed at the most important job of a GM, getting a franchise QB in place.

BUFFALO

Don’t tell QB JOSH ALLEN he hasn’t been as good in 2021 after signing his big money contract.  He knows it already.  Matt Parrino of New York Upstate:

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was almost despondent on Monday – a day after his team blew out the Miami Dolphins, 35-0 – offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said.

“He’s just kind of down,” Daboll explained. “He’s like, ‘I should have done this, this, and this.’ … he wants to complete every pass.”

Allen finished second in MVP voting last year behind Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, throwing for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while completing nearly 70% of his throws. In his first two games this season, Allen’s accuracy has dipped to just a 56% completion rate. Some fans and media have begun questioning whether Allen has regressed after the record-breaking season that earned him the second-richest contract in NFL history.

Allen said Wednesday that he couldn’t care less what anybody thinks outside the Bills locker room. But he did admit that things haven’t been to the standard he set last season.

“It’s no secret that I didn’t play great last game (against Miami) and I didn’t play great the week before (against Pittsburgh),” he said. “Stuff I’m working on and just got to push through it and find ways to be better for this team.”

The Bills (1-1) ranked fourth in the NFL last season with 15.5 points per game in the first half. This year they’re averaging just 12, which puts them all the way down at no. 14. Allen said that he’s searching for a rhythm early in games that just hasn’t come yet.

“Whether it’s finding the check down early and just trying to get into a groove … That’s expected from us,” Allen said. “I demand so much of myself and I want to execute at such a high level. When things aren’t going well I get so frustrated with myself. So I got to find a way to keep going, be light for the guys and be the best leader that I can be for this team.”

Daboll doesn’t mind that Allen is his own harshest critic. It’s what helped him improve every year he’s been in the league, he said.

“He wants to be so good,” Daboll said. “That’s a great thing to have too, because this league is a tough league. There’s tough opponents, there’s tough coaching staffs, there’s tough teams to go against, and you’re not going to be perfect every week. “

The goal is to not ride the emotional roller coaster from week to week or during a game, Daboll said. That’s something Allen is trying to master.

“It’s hard to tone down that aspect when I expect something of myself,” Allen said. “And something I can do, that I do regularly in practice and I’ve shown it, and there’s obviously been a couple times in the games where I’ve missed and maybe letting it affect me too much. The best quarterbacks are the ones that can forget about the previous play and move on to the next. Guys make mistakes, guys miss throws. It’s how we bounce back from it that makes us who we are and that’s what we’re looking forward to do.”

Bills head coach Sean McDermott said on Wednesday that he noticed improvement from Allen from the opener to the second game, even if it didn’t necessarily show up in the stat sheet.

“Just execution-wise and running the operation, and just even a couple throws that were within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage,” McDermott said. “When you go back and look at the tape, those throws aren’t being made by every quarterback in the league the way that Josh made them and when he made them.”

Allen threw two touchdown passes inside the red zone against the Dolphins, but one of those short ones McDermott was referring to came before his second touchdown pass to tight end Dawson Knox. On a 3rd-and-6 play, Allen rolled to his right and threw back across his body to an in-breaking Stefon Diggs – who was blanketed by All Pro Xavien Howard. Allen’s ball placement was on point when it mattered. Diggs hauled in the pass for a first down and Allen found Knox for the score on the next throw.

“(It’s about) just understanding how you win in this league,” McDermott said. “You look at the throwaway in the red zone on first down on one or two occasions. That’s probably not talked about. But it’s a smart football play.

“He’ll continue to grow. So even though you get the contract and expectations are up here – it’s about learning through the ins and outs of the job year to year (and) week to week. … I can just tell you Josh is playing good football.”

Daboll’s been happy with Allen’s decision-making, too.

“I don’t care how many throwaways you have, if you got to throw the football away and that’s the best decision, then that’s the best decision,” Daboll said he told Allen this week. “Whether we win or whether we lose, it’s not the 55 plays or 60 plays that we did the exact right way, it’s the six plays, the five plays that he wishes he had back, and I think if you’re a competitor that’s the way it should be.”

The rhythm may start to come to Allen a little more this week as he focuses in on the little things at the start of the game against the Washington Football Team. Finding easy completions on early downs and letting his targets make plays with the ball.

“I want to be great,” he said. “I want to be the best that I can be, the best quarterback I can be for this team and I’m gonna strive every day to be that guy.”

NEW YORK JETS

The Broncos are next for a “super anxious” QB ZACH WILSON after he coughed up 4 INTS to the Patriots.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Zach Wilson is ready to move on from his four-interception game against the New England Patriots in Week 2 as the New York Jets prepare to head to Denver to take on the 2-0 Broncos.

“Yeah, super anxious,” Wilson said Thursday, via the Associated Press. “It’s kind of like what the coaches said, just excited to move on, prepare for the next opponent, learn from all of our mistakes, and how can we just apply it for this next week?”

Wilson noted that he’s aiming to “hit the reset button,” not fretting about interceptions from one play to the next.

Battered through two games, Wilson ranks last in the NFL in passer rating (56.1; among 33 qualified passers this season) and has been sacked 10 times (most in NFL).

The rookie got caught trying to make big plays at times in the 25-6 loss to the Pats. After the contest, coach Robert Saleh noted that it’s sometimes OK to play more “boring” football and take checkdowns when they’re available.

The young gunslinger believes he can do just that when needed.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily challenging,” Wilson said. “It’s just being smart with the ball and then understanding sometimes those situations in games like that, there wasn’t checkdowns on some of those interceptions. It’s not just, hey, check the ball down. It’s, hey, be smart with the ball — how can you throw it away or get rid of it?

“And that’s what I’m applying to this next week, just trying to learn and get better.”

Might history offer Wilson and the Jets some optimism Sunday heading to face a menacing Broncos defense?

Week 2 marked the fourth time in team history that a Jets rookie QB had four-plus interceptions in a single game. In each of the previous three instances (Mark Sanchez twice in 2009 and Sam Darnold once in 2018), the Jets turned around and won that QB’s next start.

To do so, Wilson must protect the football better than he did in Week 2.

THIS AND THAT

TAUNTING

Kevin Seifert questions himself about the new taunting emphasis:

On a random afternoon this spring, after he finished announcing the NFL’s rule change proposals for 2021, competition committee chairman Rich McKay paused for an aside. There would only be two points of emphasis on existing rules, McKay said during a call with reporters, and one of them was the annual focus on lowering the helmet to initiate contact. The other, he said, would be for taunting.

McKay took pains to describe this effort as a targeted strike against player-to-player words or acts that “engender ill will between teams,” as has long been encoded in the NFL rule book. It would not focus on celebrations, as a similar point of emphasis did in 2016, according to McKay. A group of coaches, through the NFL coaches subcommittee, had simply advanced their belief that enforcement of the existing rule had grown “too lax” in recent years, McKay said.

From that modest start has sprouted one of the league’s early-season trends. Officials identified taunting as the impetus for eight unsportsmanlike conduct flags in Week 2, tying for the most in any week since at least the 2000 season. (Caveat: Referees do not always specify “taunting” in their announcements for such fouls, so there could have been additional flags in recent years.) Overall, there have been 11 taunting flags in the first two weeks of the season, one short of the most in Weeks 1-2 since 2000, which is as far back as the ESPN Stats & Information database goes.

Let’s look deeper into what has happened and where it is likely to go this season.

What exactly are we talking about with taunting?

One of the causes for an unsportsmanlike conduct foul, according to the rule book, is “[u]sing baiting or taunting acts or words that may engender ill will between teams.”

In practical terms, that could mean something as simple as spinning the ball at a player from another team or calling him a mean name. It includes “getting in the face” of an opponent, turning around to face him while running free for a touchdown or making a hand signal after beating him on a play. In short, “taunting” is anything that could prompt a similar response from the other guy, potentially escalating into a physical post-whistle confrontation.

Seems harmless for such an emotional game. Who actually cares about it?

Owners and coaches — and they make the rules.

“We get kind of sick and tired of the taunting that does go on from time to time on the field,” said New York Giants owner John Mara, who is a member of the competition committee. “We [try] to balance the sportsmanship with allowing the players to have fun, and there’s always a fine line there, but none of us like to see that.”

While it would be easy to pin the blame on owners, the sentiment extends to many coaches, including those who are former players.

“I don’t like taunting,” Indianapolis Colts coach and former backup quarterback Frank Reich told The Rich Eisen Show this summer. “I mean, I love the fire of competition. I want to dominate the opponent in every way — physically, mentally, on the scoreboard. I want to embarrass them. We want to destroy the opponent. We want to shut every opponent out. We want to score 50 and have them not score any. But we don’t have to taunt. Taunting … doesn’t look good on anybody. It’s not a good look. It’s not a good thing for young kids to see. I just don’t think that’s what this game is about.”

If this rule is already on the books, why do they have to emphasize it this season?

Flags for taunting dropped noticeably the past two seasons. There was a total of 11 in 2020 and nine in 2019, following an average of 30 from 2013-18. In the opinion of coaches and owners, however, that dip did not reflect a corresponding fall in the frequency of taunting they saw over those two seasons.

In many ways, the issue came to a head after seeing Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. mock Kansas City Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill with a peace sign during Super Bowl LV. Winfield later said the taunt was in retaliation for Hill making a similar hand gesture toward the Buccaneers during a matchup in the regular season. Hill was not penalized for the original infraction, but Winfield was penalized and fined for his.

Were players warned that this was coming?

Yes. All players are presented with a league video in training camp that explains new rules and points of emphasis.

Did the NFL tell them they would be calling some really ticky-tacky fouls?

Not directly, but whether we like it or not, that’s how the NFL endeavors to change player behavior — by asking officials to call anything remotely close. It’s like erecting a force field around even the possibility of a taunt.

“Players have been told through the tapes from the league office: Do not create acts that make someone try to figure out what your intent was,” said ESPN officiating analyst John Parry. “Don’t make the officials make a judgment on whether it is or is not unsportsmanlike conduct.”

Aren’t there any other ways to change player behavior than by over-officiating regular-season games?

Yes, but it would require a significant change in the way the NFL’s officiating department works training camps. Parry has suggested a significant boost to the two or three days that officials usually spend with teams in training camps. Working with players and coaches over a span of several weeks, for instance, could educate them and set a tone in an organic way that doesn’t impact any games, be it preseason or in the regular season.

Players can’t possibly like the way it is now, can they?

No. NFL Players Association president JC Tretter, in fact, wrote in a blog post: “This year, don’t blame the players who show too much emotion, and cut the refs a break for doing their jobs. Blame the people who push for rules like this time and time again.”

What are the 2021 fines for taunting?

Players who are penalized for taunting can be fined up to $10,300 on a first offense. The fine for a second offense is $15,450. They have the right to appeal, and sometimes those fines are reduced or eliminated based on the severity of the infraction or other mitigating circumstances.

What will happen now?

People will freak out, resurrect the “No Fun League” memes and claim that officials have ruined the game.

Will the NFL give them reason to stop?

Most likely. If history is any guide, the frequency of taunting flags will decrease over the course of the season — and probably sooner than later. The 2016 point of emphasis resulted in 12 such flags in the first two weeks and an additional 26 over the next 15. There has been more than 38 flags thrown for taunting only once in the past two decades, when a 2004 point of emphasis led to 53.

So this is a short-term issue?

By all accounts, yes. Players will make adjustments, as will officials once the NFL determines that the point has been made. By the end of the season, in all likelihood, this episode will largely be forgotten.

Pete Carroll had some comments after one of his players ran afoul.  Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says he respects what the NFL is trying to accomplish by more strictly enforcing the taunting rule, but he believes the league has “opened up a bit of a can of worms” by penalizing actions that can be difficult for players to suddenly avoid amid the emotions of a game.

“You’ve got a lot of guys that have to deal with those explosive moments and they’ve got to really turn their focus away from the opponent,” Carroll said Monday. “It’s a good thought. It’s just hard to manage it.”

The taunting rule isn’t new, but the NFL has made its enforcement a point of emphasis for officials in 2021. The 11 taunting penalties called through the first two weeks already equals the total from the entire 2020 regular season, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. There were nine in 2019.

The Seahawks have been flagged for taunting twice in two games: receiver DK Metcalf in the opener and cornerback D.J. Reed on Sunday.

Carroll’s comments were in response to the one on Reed, which came in the fourth quarter of Seattle’s overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans. After successfully defending a deep ball that fell incomplete, Reed pumped his arms while looking at receiver A.J. Brown — a routine celebration that would have gone unpenalized in recent seasons.

Carroll’s issue was with the rule itself, not the official’s decision to flag Reed on that play. Strong safety Jamal Adams shared a similar sentiment postgame while calling the penalty “ticky-tack.”

“Come on, man,” Adams said. “You’re taking the passion and the emotions out of the game of football. At the end of the day, that’s the rule. We have to play smarter.”

Carroll cited another moment from Sunday’s game as an example of how to avoid being penalized for taunting. He said an unidentified player “made a very aggressive movement” after one play but had his body slightly turned away from the opponent, so it didn’t appear as though he was directing his celebration at anyone.

“What we’re talking about is always celebrate with your teammates and we’ve been practicing it and making a big deal about it because it is one of the main new things that they’ve emphasized, and as always, that’s what they call,” he said. “So I don’t think it’s bad for the game. I just think it’s hard for the guys to do in the moment. They’ve just got to learn and train and we’ve got to do a better job. I have to do a better job of putting us in situations and making sure we’re monitoring it really carefully and helping our guys train.”

Reed’s penalty was one of five 15-yard infractions by the Seahawks against Tennessee. In all, they committed 10 penalties for 100 yards.

So the rule is don’t look at the other team, avert your eyes, pay them no attention – do whatever you want.

BROADCAST NEWS

For decades, we have been indoctrinated into thinking “fourth down, punt.”  Emerging scholarship shows this is nonsense as an automatic recipe, and more and more often NFL coaches are following the science despite the howls of some scribes and critics. Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

Social media lit up on Sunday night in the moments after the Baltimore Ravens converted a fourth-down run to seal an exhilarating 36-35 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Amid the flurry of “WOWs,” shock emojis and celebratory GIFs was a tweet from Michael Lopez, the NFL’s director of football data and analytics. After watching Ravens coach John Harbaugh make a difficult decision from his team’s own 43-yard line, sending quarterback Lamar Jackson up the middle for two yards, Lopez posted the headshot of a man that only his followers and a handful of other devotees to football analytics would recognize.

Pictured was Daniel Stern, the Ravens’ football research coach and the man responsible for giving Harbaugh the information he needs to make the kind of choices that are taking over NFL game strategy.

“It was basically a win for analysts everywhere,” Lopez said this week. “As a member of the league office, I’m a fan not of one team but all 32. Whether or not they converted makes a difference in the optics, but just the fact that there was enthusiasm about going for it in that situation, that was the biggest thing from my perspective.”

Harbaugh’s decision provided a visual capstone for a trend that has been building over the past decade. To the great thrill of analytics advocates everywhere, much of the NFL has shifted squarely into four-down thinking this season, when viewed either in raw numbers or through a “non-obvious” filter developed by ESPN sports data scientist Brian Burke called forfeited win probability (more on that later).

There were 88 offensive plays on fourth down through the first 32 games, more than any in league history. Forty-eight of them were passing plays, 32 were rushes and eight were sacks. The distribution among teams is not yet equal — 10 teams have one or zero such plays — but the idea has nestled itself securely in mainstream thought. Through two weeks, teams have gone for it on fourth down 20.8% of the time, a high since at least 2000, and offenses are converting 55.1% of those attempts.

“We’ve been going for it for quite a while around here,” Harbaugh said. “We have learned a lot about the numbers and things like that, so we know more than we used to. … But really, in the end, it boils down to if you think you can get it compared to your chances of not getting it. That’s kind of the coaching decision there.”

Indeed, the truth is that two largely independent catalysts have collided to create this season’s conditions.

The first is the idea, espoused as early as 1970 by former NFL quarterback Virgil Carter and codified in a 2005 academic paper by economist David Romer, that coaches would benefit from more aggressive offensive playcalling. The development of win probability models in recent years, especially those that account for the time and score in a game, have confirmed that teams often have a better chance of winning by attempting to convert a reasonable fourth down than by punting the ball away.

The second is an intentional and decade-long shift of advantage toward NFL offenses, especially with the passing game. Rules that limit coverage and pass rush have made offenses far more efficient, shifting the priority from field position to possession. Even if Harbaugh had no understanding of the numbers Sunday night, for example, he knew the Ravens had a significant advantage over the Chiefs’ defense at the key moment. Conversely, his team would be at an obvious disadvantage if Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes got the ball back — no matter where on the field he took over.

“It’s really changed the underlying fabric of the sport,” Burke said. “The stronger offenses get, and the more of an upper hand they have, really what that does is give you a better chance of converting. So maybe some of this shift we’ve seen doesn’t have anything to do with the fourth down analytics itself. It’s just an understanding that the sport has changed and offenses have the upper hand anyway. Going for it on fourth down is always lucrative, but the shift toward offense has made it easier to do.”

Fourth-Down Offensive Plays In Weeks 1-2

PLAYS TEAMS

7          ATL, DET

5          CHI, DEN, NYJ

4          BUF, IND, NO, CLE,TEN, CIN, MIA

3          GB, BAL, WSH,PHI, NYG

2          TB, LAR, JAX,LV, MIN

1          PIT, SF, ARI,DAL, LAC, CAR

0          KC, SEA, HOU, NE

Burke, in fact, has theorized that the evolution of the game — and not necessarily a commitment to data — is what drove New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s seminal 2009 decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28-yard line during a 2009 game at the Indianapolis Colts. The play failed, and the Colts needed only four plays after gaining possession to score the go-ahead points in a 35-34 victory. Belichick, who famously insists that he does not pay attention to analytics, absorbed heavy public criticism for the move. But it effectively broke the ice for less secure members of his profession.

“Even though it didn’t work,” Burke said, “I think it made coaches feel safer. It started that process. If they go for it on fourth down and fail, they’re not going to get fired on Monday morning.”

Since then, the trend line has moved up steadily. Burke developed and tracks a metric he calls “forfeited win probability,” which essentially measures the extent to which a team decreases its chances of winning by making less-optimal decisions. Since the start of 2010, the league has cut its forfeiture rate roughly in half. In fact, during that same period, NFL teams raised their “go rate” on 4th-and-1 from one in every three opportunities to two out of every three opportunities, according to Lopez.

“So within a [short] period,” Lopez said, “you’re going from a situation where the common thing is to punt to a situation where the common thing is to go for it. From our perspective, it has been a pretty massive change.”

The surge has largely been powered by roughly one-third of the teams in the league, estimates Ryan Paganetti, who spent six seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles in a role similar to the one Stern has with the Ravens. In 2021, the list of teams with comprehensive and successful optimization policies include the Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers.

Paganetti was the primary advisor to former Eagles coach Doug Pederson when the “Philly Special” call on fourth down from the goal line helped power the franchise to its first Super Bowl victory after the 2017 season. Every team operates differently, but in the Eagles’ case, the majority of the analytics advocacy and nudging coaches toward more optimal decision-making took place in the offseason. Paganetti convened meetings with coaches throughout the staff to explain his analysis and make adjustments where needed. Coaches appreciated knowing how much they could impact win probability — one way or the other — with various decisions, Paganetti said.

“For example,” he said, “you may have data saying that 4th-and-5 or less from the 42-yard line would be a ‘go for it’ situation. But the magnitude of the advantage is nowhere near as large on 4th-and 4 and 4th-and-5, so I might communicate that 4th-and-3 or less would be a very clear go for it, while 4th-and-4 or -5 leans toward go for it but is closer to a toss-up.”

Those parameters were always mapped out before a game, eliminating debate during the precious seconds available to make a decision. Paganetti, connected to the coaching staff via headset, tried to preview upcoming fourth-down decisions during the course of a possession in time to impact playcalling on third downs as well.

The impact of such acceptance on the game has been almost universally positive, Burke noted, in contrast to the changes imposed by analytics in baseball and, to some extent, basketball. Not only has it provided moments such as Sunday night’s game-sealer, but it has also pushed coaches to maximize advantages in the passing game that thrill a majority of fans who prefer elevated scoring and more aerial highlights.

“It’s really the two biggest things analytics has done for football,” Burke said. “We’ve shown that passing is much more efficient than running, and then we have this fourth down thing. As opposed to other sports, these analytics really improved the product. It’s more fun. In baseball, you could say that analytics have crippled the game. You see strikeouts, walks and home runs. In basketball, it’s a three-point shooting contest now. Some people like that, but on net, I don’t know that it’s a positive.”

It’s fair to wonder, however, if the search for football optimization could go too far. Could win probability prompt teams to emphasize strategies that are less interesting, even if more efficient? Neither Burke nor Lopez could conceive of an analytical approach that would generate such an outcome, but both said the NFL will need to monitor the impact of its constantly changing rules. Burke pointed to the Big 12 conference at the college level, which currently has six teams averaging at least 39 points per game, as a cautionary tale.

Highest Go-For-It Rates In 2021

TEAM  RATE

Browns            50.0%

Lions              46.7%

Bears              41.7%

Falcons           36.8%

Broncos           31.3%

Jets                31.3%

Colts               30.8%

Saints             30.8%

Packers           30.0%

Dolphins          28.6%

“You see a game there, and if they kick a field goal, it’s like they know they are going to lose,” Burke said. “You almost need a touchdown on every possession there. If the NFL allows offenses to get too much of an upper hand, then you’re looking at arena football, and it takes away from what makes the NFL version of football special.”

Too much passing would elevate “a lot of other outcomes that aren’t all good for the game,” Lopez said.

“You don’t have defensive pass interference on run plays,” he added. “So your risk of a really big penalty is higher the more you pass. Your risk of stoppages is higher, because every time there is an incomplete pass, the clock stops. You could see longer game times that way. Those types of trends are worth thinking about, but that’s more about rules and officiating than analytics.”

For the foreseeable future, at least, the NFL seems poised to move into the golden era of analytically-driven game strategy. In a copycat league, four-down offense is one idea worth emulating.