THE DAILY BRIEFING
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Sad news about former Cowboys TE Gavin Escobar. The AP:
Two rock climbers, including former NFL player Gavin Escobar, were found dead near a Southern California peak after rescue crews responded to reports of injuries, authorities said.
Rescuers were called around 12:30 p.m. Wednesday to Tahquitz Rock near Idyllwild following a distress call, the Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department said on Twitter.
A team managed to climb into the steep, remote area and found both unidentified climbers dead at the scene, the department said.
They were identified Thursday as Chelsea Walsh, 33, and Escobar, 31.
A small amount of rain fell in the area earlier in the day, but officials didn’t immediately say if weather was a factor in the deaths.
Escobar was a Long Beach firefighter who was hired in February, the department said.
Escobar, a 2013 second-round pick out of San Diego State, previously had been a tight end, playing for the Dallas Cowboys in a backup role from 2013 to 2016. He then had brief stints with the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins, ending his football career in 2019 with the now-defunct Alliance of American Football. In his NFL career, Escobar played in 64 games, with seven starts, 30 receptions for 333 yards and eight touchdowns.
Tahquitz Rock, with its steep granite cliffs, is a popular destination for climbers.
Two climbers from Los Angeles fell 200 feet (60 meters) to their deaths on the rock in 2000, according to the Los Angeles Times.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
RB SAQUON BARKLEY is feeling good about where he is at three weeks into 2022. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
Giants running back Saquon Barkley is second in the NFL in rushing yards heading into this Sunday’s game against the Bears and that’s one sign that he’s rebounded from a dismal 2021 season.
Another came last Monday night when Barkley cut back and ran 36 yards for a touchdown against the Cowboys. It wasn’t enough to get the Giants a win, but Barkley said at a Thursday press conference that the play made him feel like he is back to being the kind of back he was in his first couple of NFL seasons.
“Yeah, you know, not to be arrogant, when you see plays like when I went back, and you watch film on the touchdown run I had on Monday, making that jump cut inside a hole and making those two guys miss and find a way to score,” Barkley said. “Those are the plays where it’s like, kind of put a smile on your face and you’re like, ‘That’s the guy I know. That’s the guy who always was there.’ He was there last year to be completely honest; I just had a hard time finding a way to bring him out. That’s coming with a mental disconnect, I lost confidence, and its human nature. That happens. You’re going to have your ups and downs in life, but you got to find a way not to waiver and continue to trust yourself, continue to trust the process, and just find belief in yourself again. I feel like I’m starting to do that also with the help of the coaches and my teammates.”
In addition to staying productive, staying healthy will be a key for Barkley over the rest of the season if he is going to fully position himself as being back to the form that made him a star upon entering the league as the second overall pick in 2018. If he can pull both off, how he and the Giants handle contract talks next offseason will be interesting to watch.
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NFC SOUTH
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NEW ORLEANS
QB JAMEIS WINSTON will not start Sunday at Tottenham:
New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston is unlikely to play in Sunday’s game in London against the Minnesota Vikings, while wide receiver Michael Thomas has been ruled out, coach Dennis Allen told reporters Friday.
Neither Winston (back/ankle) nor Thomas (foot) has practiced over the past three days due to their injuries.
Andy Dalton would get the start at quarterback for the Saints if Winston, who is considered doubtful, is inactive for Sunday’s game. The Saints signed Dalton to a one-year contract this offseason after playing four quarterbacks in 2021 due to injuries and COVID-19.
Dalton has experience playing in London. He played in two games there as a Cincinnati Bengals starter, including a 27-27 tie in 2016 against Washington and current Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins.
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TAMPA BAY
Not a cloud in the sky in Tampa on Friday morning. And Sunday night football will go one as scheduled. ESPN.com:
Sunday night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will continue to be held at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa as originally scheduled, the NFL announced Thursday.
The NFL had selected U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as a contingency site for the game after the Bucs had evacuated the area because of Hurricane Ian.
“Our thoughts and prayers remain with the many thousands in the Southwest Florida region who have been severely impacted by Hurricane Ian,” the Bucs said in a statement Thursday. “We are also very thankful that the Tampa Bay area was spared the most damaging consequences of this powerful storm.
“We have informed the NFL, after consulting with local and state agencies, that we are ready to play Sunday night’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium as originally scheduled.”
The Bucs also expressed gratitude to first responders and emergency personnel “who are already battling the elements, saving lives, and helping our neighbors in those most impacted areas to our south.”
Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady hopes the game can help bring people together for “a common good.”
The Glazers, the Buccaneers ownership family, announced a $1 million donation to Florida recovery efforts and QB TOM BRADY said he had also chipped in an unknown amount.
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NFC WEST
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
QB MATTHEW STAFFORD is getting the job done when he throws to WR COOPER KUPP, but Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com looks at the struggles of the rest of the Rams offense:
After winning Super Bowl LVI in February, the Los Angeles Rams kept most of their core together, including extending quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp.
But there were several changes on the offense — bringing in wide receiver Allen Robinson II and shuffling the offensive line — and through three games, the Rams (2-1) are still trying to find a rhythm.
“I think we’re just continuing to learn our identity,” coach Sean McVay said. “It’s really figuring out how to best utilize a lot of moving parts that are different then what we’ve had in years past.”
The Rams rank 18th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA so far this season, 16th in passing and 14th in rushing. None of those rankings are startling after three weeks, but all will need to improve if the Rams want to be competing beyond January.
Los Angeles is also unexpectedly without wide receiver Van Jefferson, who needed knee surgery during training camp. The Rams put him on injured reserve before their 20-12 Week 3 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, so he will miss at least the first six games of the season.
So what hasn’t changed?
The Rams are still utilizing their now-trademark 11 personnel on 97% of plays. And the offense still goes through Kupp.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Kupp’s target share, which was 32% in 2021, is 35% through the first three games. He also accounts for 43% of the Rams’ catches and 37% of the team’s receiving yards. He ranks in the top three in the NFL in all three categories.
Kupp has a league-leading 28 catches for 280 yards and three receiving touchdowns this season and ran for a 20-yard touchdown against Arizona. He has the most receptions through three games in his career.
One big difference is Stafford, who has played fine to start the season but not to last year’s level. According to Pro Football Focus, Stafford is 3-for-11 for 72 yards, no touchdowns and an interception on throws 20 or more yards down the field.
Stafford’s average depth of target is down from 8.9 yards last season to 7.3. His turnover worthy play rate is also up from 3.5% to 4.3%, which would be his highest number since his second season in 2010 with the Detroit Lions. His passer rating also is down from 103.9 to 86.3, which would be his lowest since 2014.
Also worrying for Stafford is that he threw all five of his interceptions in his first two games of the season.
Stafford had a couple big plays that didn’t connect — barely — against the Cardinals, so there are signs that he’s close to breaking through. His performance in Arizona wasn’t going to win him the MVP, but he didn’t commit a turnover and completed 72% of his passes. The most encouraging stat from Stafford’s performance was a season-high 9.96 yards per attempt.
But his coach says he’s not concerned about what the numbers say.
“I thought he played a really clean game,” McVay said of Stafford’s performance against the Cardinals. “I thought he had great command, great control, thought he saw the field incredibly well. … He does so many things that maybe even don’t show up on the stat sheet that are such a great reflection of what a stud he is. [I’m] really pleased with his overall performance. There were a couple plays that not many people in the world can make.
“I think what we’ve realized, especially over the last couple weeks, is that the stats don’t even begin to tell the total story.”
One reason for the lack of downfield success is a lack of production from Robinson, who the Rams gave a guaranteed $30 million in the offseason to be the go-to receiver opposite Kupp. Robinson only had 410 receiving yards in 12 games last season for the Bears. A change of scenery was necessary, but he only has seven catches for 88 yards through three games this season. He has one touchdown but dropped another at the goal line early against the Cardinals.
Of players with at least 10 targets this season, Robinson ranks in the bottom third in average separation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. His 58.33 catch percentage is also in the bottom half, and he has a minus-0.5 average yards after catch above expectation.
They need Robinson to step up with limited options right now. There have been many hints about Odell Beckham Jr. — who had seven touchdown receptions in the second half of the season and the playoffs last year before tearing the ACL in his left knee in the Super Bowl — eventually being re-signed, but he’s unlikely to be ready to play until December.
“There are different ways to be able to move the football and score points, and that’s really all I care about,” McVay said. “I’m not necessarily worried about how we’re creating explosives as long as we’re efficient moving the football and scoring points. I think those things are there for the taking over the last couple weeks. We’ve just got to be able to execute better in some of those particular scenarios that I just alluded to.
“I do believe that we’re capable of it and now we got to go do it.”
Against Arizona, it was running back Cam Akers who sparked the offense, running five times on the Rams’ second touchdown drive near the end of the third quarter. He ran for 61 yards on 12 carries, most of which came in the second half.
McVay felt like the Rams should have been able to score more than 20 points against Arizona based on the drives the offense put together. If the Rams could have more success in the red zone — they were 1-of-3 — the team would be happier with the final score.
“I think over the last couple of weeks there’s been some efficiency,” McVay said. “I thought there were a couple more explosives [against Arizona], and I thought the theme of the day was really just finishing those drives in the red area. Where if we end up scoring 30-plus points we’d probably feel a little bit better, but we didn’t. How do we really fix that? How do we make sure coaches and players alike we’re all on the same page and we kind of just clean up things.
“The margin for error is small, and we’ve got to do a better job with that.”
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AFC NORTH
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CINCINNATI
Against Miami, Cincinnati’s much-maligned offensive line was at least adequate. Actually, better than adequate. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
For the first time in 13 games, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow wasn’t planted on his backside multiple times during a game.
Thursday night’s 27-15 victory over the Miami Dolphins marked the first time since Week 7, 2021, that Burrow was sacked fewer than two times in a game. The Dolphins sacked Burrow just once, as the QB helped guide Cincy back to .500, connecting on 20 of 31 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns.
“All day, the protection was awesome,” Burrow said, via the Associated Press. “I had all the time I needed in the pocket to find the guys I needed.”
The Bengals entered Week 4 tied for last in sacks allowed with 15.
“I told them this is the most time I’ve had since I’ve been in the league,” Burrow said of his offensive line on the Amazon Prime postgame show.
Keeping Burrow upright and giving up pressure on only 21.9 percent of dropbacks allowed the quarterback to make several big plays that turned the tide.
Burrow’s 59-yard touchdown to Tee Higgins was the Bengals’ 10th 50-plus-yard scrimmage TD since 2021 (most in NFL) and the quarterback’s 14th completion of 50-plus yards since 2021 (leads NFL).
“Joe was lights-out,” coach Zac Taylor said. “He was seeing it really well, giving guys an opportunity. It’s man coverage, you’ve got to beat man coverage and we’ve got the guys to do it. We had the protection to match it, we have a quarterback where that’s what he wants to see. ‘Give me man coverage, let me fit into tight windows and tough spots.’ So, I’m proud of the way all those guys stepped up.”
After starting the season with 13 sacks allowed in two games, the protection has settled down with three in the last two outings. Cincy’s inability to open up holes in the run game is an entirely different issue at this stage, but let’s focus on the positive for now: Burrow was finally not obliterated in a game.
Now the Bengals’ offensive line has to repeat the performance against a defense that wasn’t coming off a 90-play game on only four days’ rest.
Thursday’s victory marked the first time Cincinnati won back-to-back games following an 0-2 start for the first time in franchise history.
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AFC EAST
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MIAMI
QB TUA TAGOVAILOA returned to Miami with the team after a scary injury Saturday night. Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com:
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was taken to a local hospital with head and neck injuries suffered on a second-quarter sack in Thursday night’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tagovailoa hit the back of his head on the ground when he was sacked by Bengals nose tackle Josh Tupou, and his arms appeared to seize up almost immediately. He remained on the field for roughly 10 minutes before he was loaded onto a stretcher and taken away.
The Dolphins said shortly before halftime that he was conscious and had movement in all his extremities at the hospital, the University of Cincinnati Medical Center. After the game, they said Tagovailoa was expected to be released from the hospital Thursday night and travel back to Miami with the team.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Tagovailoa called for him when he went down.
“I could tell it wasn’t the same guy that I was used to seeing,” McDaniel said. “It was a scary moment. He was evaluated for a concussion. He’s in the concussion protocol, but he’s being discharged.
“It’s an emotional moment. It’s not a part of the deal you sign up for. His teammates and myself were very concerned, but he got checked out and it’s nothing more serious than a concussion.”
The entire Dolphins team gathered at midfield as Tagovailoa was taken off, and the crowd chanted, “Tua! Tua!”
In Sunday’s win over the Buffalo Bills, Tagovailoa underwent concussion evaluations at halftime after he hit his head on the ground and then stumbled while trying to return to the huddle. The team initially listed him as questionable to return because of a head injury but later said it was a back injury that caused him to stumble. Tagovailoa said later in the week that he passed every evaluation he took before ultimately returning to the game.
The NFL Players Association requested a review of the NFL’s concussion protocols following Tagovailoa’s quick return to the game.
“Player health and safety is at the core of the union’s mission. Our concern tonight is for Tua and we hope for a full and speedy recovery. Our investigation into the potential protocol violation is ongoing,” the NFLPA said in a statement after Tagovailoa was hurt Thursday night.
McDaniel, asked whether he knew with 100% certainty that Tagovailoa was not concussed after Sunday’s game, said yes, and noted that Tagovailoa was cleared by an independent neurologist.
“People don’t stray. We don’t mess with that. As long as I’m the head coach, that will never be an issue,” McDaniel said.
Asked whether there was anything he could have done differently following the Bills game, McDaniel said: “Absolutely zero patience for or will ever put a player in position for them to be in harm’s way. That’s not what I’m about at all. No outcome of a game would influence me to be irresponsible as a head coach of a football team.”
Tagovailoa, 24, was listed as questionable because of a back injury for most of the week ahead of Thursday night’s game.
Before leaving the game, Tagovailoa was 8-for-14 for 110 yards and an interception.
Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill said players were asking for updates on the quarterback throughout the second half.
“You wanna win the game but obviously you wanna make sure that your brother is all right,” Hill said. “Football is just our part-time job, but that brotherhood is something that’ll last forever.”
Teddy Bridgewater entered in Tagovailoa’s place and finished 14-for-23 for 193 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the 27-15 loss. The Dolphins had rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson active for the first time in his career, as well.
Linebacker Jaelan Phillips said it was difficult to compartmentalize after seeing Tagovailoa stretchered off.
“That’s kind of what football is all about. We practice compartmentalizing every day. It’s not easy — we all love Tua,” he said. “It’s definitely tough to try to refocus, but we tried.”
The speed with which “experts” on Twitter and other media denounced Dolphins doctors and NFL policies after QB TUA TAVOVAILOA was slung to ground Thursday was breathtaking.
Chris Nowinski led the charge:
@ChrisNowinski1
I take no pleasure in being right. Pray for Tua. We saw this coming. Get angry. Get involved with @ConcussionLF to make sure the @NFL can’t do this again.
This from before the game:
@ChrisNowinski1
If Tua takes the field tonight, it’s a massive step back for #concussion care in the NFL.
If he has a 2nd concussion that destroys his season or career, everyone involved will be sued & should lose their jobs, coaches included. We all saw it, even they must know this isn’t right
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com pounded this out during the second half:
Like most everyone reading this, I keep watching the game between the Dolphins and Bengals. But I’m far less focused on the action and far more interested in knowing whether Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is OK.
It’s great to hear — repeatedly — that he has movement in all extremities. But that only means he doesn’t have a neck injury. It doesn’t say anything about the injury to his brain.
Given the possibility that he suffered an injury to his brain on Sunday against the Bills, it’s possible that he has suffered two brain injuries, four days apart.
And that possibility raises the stakes, dramatically, as to the ongoing investigation regarding the decision to allow Tua to re-enter the game on Sunday, despite exhibiting what the league calls “gross motor instability” in the concussion protocol. It’s not known how or why the team physician and the Unaffiliated Neurotrauma Consultant decided that the instability did not have a neurological cause. The NFL and the NFL Players Association already had commenced a review of that decision, at the behest of the union.
Now, that eventual determination hovers over the fact that Tua suffered an apparently severe concussion on Thursday night.
If he’d been held out of Sunday’s game and placed in the concussion protocol, would he have been cleared to play tonight, only four days after entering the protocol? If the goal is to exercise prudence and caution regarding the brains of the men who play the game, it’s hard to imagine clearance coming so quickly — no matter how many cognitive tests he could have passed.
As explained over the weekend, we all saw it. We knew what we saw. The return of Tua to the game defied our collective common sense. And if he shouldn’t have been playing on Sunday, he probably wouldn’t have been playing tonight.
Here’s hoping that the injury that happened tonight doesn’t influence the investigation, one way or the other. But the stakes are raised considerably. The possibility of internal politics, P.R., and labor-management relations nudging the investigation one way or the other must be acknowledged — and completely ignored when sifting through the evidence. All parties need to be committed to getting to the truth, no matter the potential consequences.
Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com:
For days, the NFL told us our eyes were lying to us when it came to the health of Tua Tagovailoa’s head.
Regardless of the footage showing Tagovailoa’s helmet slamming against the turf against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday in Miami, or his knees giving out while he collapsed back onto the ground, or teammates supporting the Dolphins quarterback in spite of his buckling legs, the message was unified: Concussion protocols were followed and Tagovailoa passed. The league office was confident in that message within hours of Miami’s win over Buffalo, and again Wednesday, when vice president of communications Jeff Miller reiterated it.
“Every indication from our perspective is that it was [followed],” Miller said of the protocols. “I know that the player, the coach and others have spoken to this.”
Translated more bluntly, this was the league, and the team and even Tagovailoa all saying the same thing: We know what you think you saw, but you’re wrong.
On Thursday, there was little chance for that assertion to exist a second time. Not with Tagovailoa appearing unconscious while laying on the field after a second quarter hit by the Cincinnati Bengals. Not with his arms and fingers flexed into a “fencing response” near his face, a telltale sign of a brain injury. And not with the footage coming on Amazon Prime Video’s “Thursday Night Football” prime-time stage, with multiple replays erasing any doubt that something frightening had happened.
I’m not a doctor, but that was a concussion. And I didn’t need hidden-away locker room protocols to tell me that was true, or some NFL public relations statement or Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, who relayed the diagnosis to reporters after the Dolphins’ 27-15 defeat. Tagovailoa departing the game strapped to a stretcher was enough. The footage of the ambulance taking him to a nearby hospital for an examination was enough.
Now we get to what matters. First comes Tagovailoa’s health, which should always be the primary focus of the team, the player and every other decision maker involved. Once we know he’s safe, we have to turn back to the garbage dump of a mess that continues to be the league’s concussion safety standards.
The confidence in the NFL and team’s decision with Tagovailoa following his on-field collapse last Sunday was already very thin. Now it’s virtually nonexistent, aside from some naysayers who were remarkably quick to suggest that Sunday’s events and Thursday’s events were just a wild coincidence.
There won’t be a lot of people buying that excuse now. Instead, there’s going to be an exploding belief that what happened against the Bills and Tagovailoa’s subsequent clearance wasn’t all it was made out to be. Certainly the NFL Players Association has significant doubts about the veracity of the process in that instance. That suspicion led the union to call for an investigation into the timeline of events and protocols that somehow got Tagovailoa back onto the field when it seemed like a dubious development to so many who watched him stumble around less than 30 minutes earlier.
This isn’t an easy position for the NFLPA to take. It’s in the awkward position of having to protect Tagovailoa (and all players) against the team and themselves. Asking for a probe into how Tagovailoa was handled is, in a way, suggesting that Tagovailoa himself may not have acted in his best long-term interests when he identified his issue against the Bills as a back injury rather than a head injury.
But let’s be real here. The union isn’t flying blind. It knows that players aren’t always going to pick their own health over a team that needs them in a key moment. It knows that players are familiar with concussion protocols and and how to skirt them. It knows that a concussed head can suddenly and wrongly be identified as a “tweaked back.”
This is why it’s questionable letting players take a big part in their own medical diagnosis, especially when they look like they’ve been concussed. There’s evidence they will lie. There’s evidence they will obfuscate. There’s evidence they’ll choose to lean into a team that wants them back on the field. And they are smart enough to know how to make that happen when they’re asked to take part in a decision about getting back onto the field.
The union knows all of this from experience. Its knowledge was gained from a history of the NFL and its teams botching the handling of concussions. Not to mention a seemingly inexhaustible omertà among players that some readily admit in their most honest and raw moments. An omertà that says you do what you have to do to stay in the fight. Especially when it’s a meaningful one.
You needed to look no further than Thursday night, when future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth spoke to it in his postgame comments while working the game for Amazon’s NFL crew. Despite it not being the best look for the league when it comes to concussion protocols that may not always work, Whitworth was candid about his experience with a head injury. And it showcases a hole in the league’s medical defense that should be concerning.
“I can literally remember playing the Philadelphia Eagles on a Thursday night football game years ago myself — getting concussed, wobbling around, a referee actually removed me from the game,” Whitworth said. “I go back in the game because you want to play. I was able to get myself through the test, explain that I’m fine, knowing that I had been dinged pretty good. I had a teammate that was like, ‘Man, this guy just is not right and I don’t feel right letting him keep playing.’ He actually pulled me out of the game and told the coaches that I need to be removed. And I’m so thankful for that. … This situation just brings back those memories. For us guys that have been on that field, it’s tough, man. We’ve gotta keep these guys uninvolved in it. They shouldn’t feel obligated to do something more than what they need to. It’s just an ugly scene to see.”
This is the kind of thing that cuts through the league’s statements that protocols were followed, and assertions by doctors and coaches and even players, that everything was handled just fine. There’s a lot of evidence that suggests limitations in all of this. Especially when it appears to make no sense.
When a player hits his head on the ground, then gets up shaking his helmet and wobbling and collapsing again, that should be one of those signs of “no-go” neurological trouble that teams are expected to identify. And the next step should probably not be asking the player to make a judgement call about explaining what’s happening medically. Especially when that player’s motivation is going to lean into what Whitworth described: Wanting to keep playing.
Time is going to shed light on how the events against Buffalo unfolded and whether or not Tagovailoa’s frightening injury Thursday had roots in his wobbly legs the previous Sunday. Unfortunately, we might never know the incontrovertible truth about the linkage between the two moments. What we do know is what the league, team and everyone else have told us: Tagovailoa called it a back injury and that played a part in the diagnosis becoming a back injury.
Maybe we should listen to Whitworth when he tells us from experience that Tagovailoa should have been “uninvolved” in that medical evaluation. Maybe we should start looking at the player as being a significant hole in the process when it comes to evaluating head injuries. Because that player involvement takes the question of whether Tua Tagovailoa was failed by the protocols and forces us to ask whether or not Tua might have played a part in that failure.
That’s a problem. And after the events of the past few days, it’s clear that it needs to be taken seriously.
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THIS AND THAT
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RE-IMAGINING THE NFL
As part of The Athletic’s look at NFL divisions, stable since 2002, Bo Wulf moves things around:
The assignment was simple: reimagine the NFL’s divisions from scratch.
That’s an intoxicating responsibility. As any good all-powerful being should do, I consulted with counsel. In this case, the inimitable Deniz Selman, a game theory expert who I figured had already given this plenty of thought. He had.
“I think the divisions are too small and the winners are over-rewarded with seeding and home playoff games,” he wrote. “I really like what the UEFA Champions League are doing starting in a few years with an open table instead of ‘groups’ in the first round. (The World Cup should 10000000 percent be doing the same when they go to 48 teams but are not doing so and will regret it when that first tournament becomes known for the inevitable blatant collusion, which will happen, but that’s another story.)”
Which led to one of his many schedule pet peeves.
“The segmentation of the seeding (division winners and non-division winners in essentially separate standings) also means there are many ‘dead’ games or, even worse, games which only mean something to one team at the end of the year,” he wrote. “Without that segmentation, the probability that a team has something to play for in the last week is much higher. Like if a wild-card team could earn a home game over a division winner, that would be another standings battle which is currently not possible due to ‘divisions having importance’ being an objective. Going from three to four divisions obviously made this problem bigger.”
We can’t do a full “open table” given the limitations of a 17-game schedule, but let’s make the divisions bigger, then. With 32 teams, the next step up would be four divisions of eight teams. That could work, with each team playing each division opponent twice (14 total) and their three remaining games against corresponding finishers in the other three divisions.
But this is an entertainment product, and limiting the matchups so much is bad for business. It’s nice knowing that every team will play against each other at least once every four years.
The next logical step is to do away with divisions altogether. Two 16-team conferences make plenty of sense, and the playoff race and seeding would be easier to digest. Schedule-wise, we could have each team play the other 15 teams in their conference and have the other two interconference games set by corresponding finish lumped into two-spot pods (No. 1 and No. 2 seeds together, Nos. 3 and 4, etc.). Or, as Selman suggests if starting completely from scratch, teams could play 12 of their 15 conference teams (with conferences segmented into quartiles from the year before) and then a rotation of five games with the other conference, keeping the every-four-year-matchup guarantee.
But the NFL is also a business, and we might be biting off our nose to spite our face in eliminating repeat rivalry games. Don’t Bears fans want to see the Packers every year? Maybe not the best example.
The truth is, the division setup is pretty ideal. And, unlike some of the considerations above, it’s easy to understand. So we’re keeping the eight-division structure in place, with one important tweak to playoff seeding. No longer are division winners guaranteed a home playoff game. Instead, each conference is seeded 1-7 according to record with normal tiebreakers, except that any ties would go to a division winner over a wild-card team. So there’s still an extra incentive for division winners (in addition to the guaranteed playoff spot), but we no longer have to worry about a 7-9 team hosting a wild-card game and, more importantly for Selman’s sake and sanity, we’re guaranteed a more competitive final week of the regular season.
As for what those divisions will look like, that’s a fun assignment, too. Travel is easier than ever before for these billion-dollar enterprises, so geography might not need to matter as much as it used to. We could get goofy and do something like lump similar mascots together. I could take out my frustrations at a mean commenter who roots for the Vikings and put them in a division with the three best quarterbacks in the league, or move them out of Minnesota altogether. But this is about doing what’s best for the future of the game, and that’s serious business.
Here’s what it looks like.
NFC East
• Baltimore Ravens
• Dallas Cowboys
• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
There are 10 teams changing divisions in this bold, new National Football League, and really only one division rivalry we at the league office are sad to lose. Alas, the Ravens and Steelers have been sacrificed for the greater good. Swapping Baltimore in for the “former” Washington Commanders is a natural fit. The geography stays pretty much the same, the strength of a maligned division improves, and beat writers who cover the Eagles and Giants no longer have to drive to Landover once a year. A win-win-win.
NFC North
• Chicago Bears
• Green Bay Packers
• Minnesota Vikings
• Toronto Buccaneers
No offense to the good people of Tampa, but we’re going international, and decisions were made. Over the past 10 seasons with full attendance, the Bucs have ranked above 25th in the percentage of tickets sold only once, in the post-Super Bowl 2021 season. And the Canadians are going to love the pirate ship gimmick.
NFC South
• Atlanta Falcons
• Carolina Panthers
• Miami Dolphins
• New Orleans Saints
Maybe geography is overrated, but this is an easy solution to fill the Bucs’ vacancy and get Miami out of the Northeast corridor. The only downside is we’ll have to hear the story of how Drew Brees almost signed with the Dolphins twice a year.
NFC West
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Los Angeles Rams
• San Francisco 49ers
• Seattle Seahawks
There’s already something of a big brother-little brother dynamic with the Rams and Chargers, so let’s lean into that rivalry while making travel a touch easier for everyone else in the division.
AFC East
• Buffalo Bills
• London Jaguars
• New England Patriots
• New York Jets
You knew the London Jaguars were coming. We all know it’s coming. Sure, the travel will be difficult, but that’ll cut both ways. And what better natural rivalry than London and the Patriots?
AFC North
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Cleveland Browns
• Detroit Lions
• Pittsburgh Steelers
Detroit is a natural fit for the Rust Belt division, especially once that outdoor stadium is built.
AFC South
• Indianapolis Colts
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Tennessee Titans
• Washington Commanders in St. Louis
Ah, the masterstroke. The Commanders already don’t play in Washington, so we serve two fan bases this way. St. Louis gets a football team back and the D.C.-area Commanders fans who already don’t go to the games can still watch on TV. Obviously, the team is sold to a new owner. Kansas City also gets a geographical proximity upgrade.
AFC Southwest
• Denver Broncos
• Houston Texans
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Mexico City Cardenals
In the short term, the Broncos and Raiders are the biggest winners of the reshuffling as they escape having both Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in their division for the foreseeable future. Houston finds a new division, and the good fans of Arizona are left in the lurch Por La Cultura.
Roger, you’re welcome.
So obviously, he’s moving the Jaguars, Buccaneers, Cardinals and Commanders to new cities. Not sure why he thought that was a good idea to leave only the Dolphins in Florida while “New York” still has three teams.
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2020 DRAFT QBS
With the emergence of QBs JALEN HURTS and TUA TAGOVIALOA, Jeff Kerr ofCBSSports.com looks at the emerging special nature of the Class of 2020:
A month ago, the 2020 quarterback class was a mixed bag. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert had emerged as stars in 2021, while Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts were entering make-or-break years. Now, the former Alabama teammates have emerged as early MVP candidates for the only unbeaten teams in the NFL — the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles. And suddenly, the number of franchise quarterbacks from the 2020 NFL Draft may have doubled.
Of course, their stock can go down as quickly as it has risen, but what if it doesn’t? They could actually challenge some immortalized classes for the best season by a draft class ever. No, we’re not talking best classes of all time in the totality of their careers, but best seasons by a class is in play right now.
In case you need to be reminded of the 2020 star potential:
Burrow made the Super Bowl last year while becoming the youngest quarterback (25) ever to lead the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt in the same season.
Herbert is the only quarterback ever with 30 touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons.
Tagovailoa tied Dan Marino and Bob Griese’s franchise-record with six passing touchdowns in Week 2.
Hurts is the only quarterback to have produced 300 passing yards per game and 50 rushing yards per game through three games of a season.
NOTABLE QBS IN 2020 NFL DRAFT
Joe Burrow, CIN (Drafted No. 1 overall)
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Drafted No. 5 overall)
Justin Herbert, LAC (Drafted No. 6 overall)
Jalen Hurts, PHI (Drafted No. 53 overall)
As a group, they are taking the league by storm:
They are four of the top eight Fantasy quarterbacks this season.
They are four of the top eight quarterbacks in MVP odds.
They are four of the top 10 quarterbacks in pass yards.
BEST MVP ODDS (CAESARS SPORTSBOOK)
Josh Allen 3-1
Patrick Mahomes 7-2
Jalen Hurts 7-1
Lamar Jackson 7-1
Tua Tagoavailoa 14-1
Justin Herbert 16-1
Aaron Rodgers 18-1
Joe Burrow 25-1
If they keep it up, they’d be in rare air. There may not be one perfect number to compare classes, so here’s a few categories to break down the best seasons by QB classes all time, with a focus on depth.
Stats
Our first category is stats. To simplify things and just look at one number, I used Fantasy points, which rewards volume and also passing plus rushing production. Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert and Hurts all rank top eight in Fantasy points among quarterbacks this season.
Results: The famed 1983 and 2004 classes are the only ones in NFL history to feature four of the top 10 in QB Fantasy points in the same season. The 1983 class did it three times, and the 2004 class, once. The best season by a single class might be the ’83 group in 1986. Five first-rounders — John Elway, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien and Dan Marino — all ranked top 10 in the NFL in Fantasy points, passing yards, touchdown passes and passer rating that season.
Draft class With four of the top 10 QBs in Fantasy points (same season)
2004 Class (2009 Season)
4. Matt Schaub
7. Philip Rivers
8. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Eli Manning
1983 Class (1991 Season)
1. Jim Kelly
2. Dan Marino
4. John Elway
7. Ken O’Brien
1983 Class (1987 Season)
3. John Elway
5. Dan Marino
6. Jim Kelly
9. Ken O’Brien
1983 Class (1986 Season)
1. Dan Marino
3. John Elway
5. Jim Kelly
6. Ken O’Brien
8. Tony Eason
ACCOLADES
Of course, impact goes beyond just filling up the stat sheet. Fantasy numbers can sometimes be empty numbers. Just look at Blake Bortles in 2015. He had 35 touchdown passes, ranked fourth among quarterbacks in Fantasy points, but was hardly the fourth-best quarterback in the league.
So, my second category is accolades. Are these quarterbacks generally regarded among the best in the league? So far the perception of the 2020 class says they have the potential to be. They have four of the top eight players in MVP odds this season. I used Pro Bowls for this measuring stick as NFL MVP votes can be all over the place. Case in point, Russell Wilson famously has never gotten an MVP vote.
Results: Only one season all time has featured four Pro Bowl quarterbacks from the same draft class. That was the ’83 group in 1991.
Four Pro Bowl QBs from same draft class in a season
1983 Class (1991 Season)
John Elway
Jim Kelly
Dan Marino
Ken O’Brien
Only two classes have seen four quarterbacks make multiple Pro Bowls at any point in their careers. The 1983 class with the aforementioned four players, and 2004 with Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger and Schaub. Hopefully you’re beginning to see a trend here. Both 1983 and 2004 were good.
Team success
Stats and accolades don’t tell the entire story either as quarterbacks are often judged by how much they’ve won. Since it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any (or all) of these 2020 quarterbacks make the playoffs, I looked at postseason starts.
Results: There’s only been three postseasons featuring four starting quarterbacks from the same draft class. The 1971 class, listed below, is one of the first great QB classes, producing multiple MVPs and Super Bowl winners.
Four QBs from same draft class in single postseason all time
2003 Class (2005 Postseason)
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Rex Grossman
Chris Simms
1999 Class (2000 Postseason)
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper
Shaun King
Aaron Brooks
1971 Class (1982 Postseason)
Jim Plunkett
Lynn Dickey
Ken Anderson
Joe Theismann
It’s impossible to predict what they might do for a career, but if you’re a draft nerd like me, you want to know the measuring sticks when talking about some of the deepest quarterback classes ever. Not just for a season, but a career.
Career success
I used Approximate Value, a metric by Pro-Football-Reference.com that places a single value on a player’s career (think WAR in baseball) to look at the highest combined career values by the top four quarterbacks in a single class. Unsurprisingly, 1983 and 2004 lead the way. But 2005, a class headlined by Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, was not far behind.
Highest Approximate Value Among Top 4 QBs in Single Draft Class
2004 – Rivers, Roethlisberger, Manning, Schaub 469
1983 – Marino, Elway, Kelly, O’Brien 461
2005 – Rodgers, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Campbell 383
1971 – Anderson, Theismann, Plunkett, Manning 370
This doesn’t quite cover all the great quarterback classes, so here are some other superlatives for you trivia people out there!
The 1983 class is the only one to produce three Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
Most Hall of Fame QBs in single draft class
1983 (3)
John Elway
Jim Kelly
Dan Marino
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