Is the this a good ranking of who might deprive the Chiefs of a three-peat?  Offered by Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com:

The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s current dynasty, rivaling the Tom Brady-era New England Patriots as football royalty. And they have no plans to slow down, with reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes declaring immediately following 2023’s title that he has eyes on a potential three-peat. Could the Chiefs truly capture a third straight Lombardi Trophy? Mahomes’ track record suggests as much. In the meantime, we’re taking an early look at candidates to spoil such a run.

A lot can change between now and the start of the 2024 season. But here are 11 different clubs who have at least some reason to believe they can dethrone Mahomes and Co. next February:

Deep sleepers

* The Atlanta Falcons now have a sturdy quarterback in Kirk Cousins to go along with ascending skill pieces and an underrated defense in a wide-open division. But Cousins’ history suggests they’ll be more steady than special.

* The Dallas Cowboys still have some of the game’s top playmakers on both sides of the ball, but Dak Prescott’s offensive line has more questions than at any point in recent memory. And this franchise has long succumbed to big-game hurdles.

* The New York Jets have an improved line for returning quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as well as a proven defense. But Rodgers is a big question mark at age 40, despite his Hall of Fame resume from Green Bay.

Honorable mentions

*The Baltimore Ravens could once again use more receiving help for reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. But Derrick Henry’s bruising style should help the run game, and Justin Madubuike’s return should help anchor the tough defense.

* The Buffalo Bills turned over a big chunk of the lineup for cap purposes, and they’ve struggled to get over the hump. But they will be a threat as long as Josh Allen is under center, and the James Cook-Stefon Diggs combo remains elite.

*The Green Bay Packers are still very young, reliant on a lot of up-and-comers at pass catcher. But Josh Jacobs should keep Matt LaFleur’s ground game intact, and Jordan Love’s got such a high ceiling as a gifted gunslinger.

Top contenders

5. Detroit Lions

2023 finish: 12-5, advanced to NFC Championship

Top additions: OG Kevin Zeitler, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis

Jared Goff may be more solid than spectacular under center, but a sterling offensive line goes a long way, and he’s still got one with Zeitler coming aboard and Graham Glasgow returning to a unit also featuring star tackle Penei Sewell. The dynamic young duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown provides home run pop, and the front seven should be slightly improved, too. The biggest hurdle might be recovering from 2023’s emotional road back to the playoffs under never-say-die coach Dan Campbell.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

2023 finish: 11-6, advanced to wild-card round

Top additions: RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bryce Huff, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson

This feels like a real boom-or-bust operation here — a team that could make these rankings look incredibly silly if it can’t shed the dysfunctional stink that was the end of their 2023 campaign. On paper, this is still an all-star offense with Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and a top-tier line welcoming Barkley’s dynamism. But embattled coach Nick Sirianni has new coordinators on both sides of the ball, so it may take time for all the pieces to become cohesive.

3. Houston Texans

2023 finish: 10-7, advanced to divisional round

Top additions: RB Joe Mixon, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Denico Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair

Houston could benefit from a wide-open AFC South, but the biggest reason the Texans should be on everyone’s radar is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who flashed MVP stuff in 2023. As long as his front and outside weapons stay healthy, he should be primed to sling it again. DeMeco Ryans’ defense, meanwhile, should be even better in support, with Hunter and Al-Shaair bringing an imposing physicality to the front seven. The short- and long-term future looks bright.

2. Cincinnati Bengals

2023 finish: 9-8

Top additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone

While everyone flocks to predict another Ravens run or a big leap by the quarterback-shuffling Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bengals are busy preparing to reintroduce the Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase-Tee Higgins triumvirate to the NFL. Neither Burrow nor Higgins was fully healthy in 2023, and while contract talks loom over Higgins, all signs point to his return. Rankins and Stone are underrated defensive adds, but it comes back to the quarterback here: when upright, Burrow is a game-changing point guard.

1. San Francisco 49ers

2023 finish: 12-5, advanced to Super Bowl LVIII

Top additions: DT Maliek Collins, DT Jordan Elliott, DE Leonard Floyd, LB De’Vondre Campbell

It’s the easy answer, but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong one. San Francisco has doubled down on its front-seven investments, quickly replacing rentals like Chase Young with reliable vets like Collins and Floyd. Offensively, meanwhile, Brock Purdy is still coming into his own as the poised figurehead of Kyle Shanahan’s multipurpose attack. The health of key weapons Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel is always worth monitoring, but the 2023 runner-ups remain one of the NFL’s most balanced.

Well, team completely left out include the Rams and Browns.

If the Falcons are a “deep sleeper”, we would throw in the Buccaneers and Chargers.

And, of the teams with unfinished business, we like the Ravens and Bills in 2024 more than the Eagles.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

DB Cameron Sutton, now a former Lion, has turned himself in to authorities in Tampa after some time as a fugitive.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Former Lions cornerback Cameron Sutton turned himself into Florida authorities Sunday night, weeks after evading police.

Eleven days ago, the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office announced it had issued an arrest warrant for Sutton. On Sunday night, the Sheriff’s Office released video of Sutton surrendering to authorities.

Sutton, 29, was wanted on a charge of domestic battery by strangulation stemming from an incident at a house in Lutz, Florida on March 7. Police had been unable to locate him since.

“On Monday, March 25, 2024, Sutton’s attorney contacted HCSO’s warrant section to inform us that he was going to Tampa to turn himself into authorities,” the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office wrote in a news release. “It wasn’t until today, March 31, 2024, at 8:24 p.m. that Sutton arrived to the Orient Road Jail to turn himself in.”

The charge is a third-degree felony punishable by up to five years in prison.

Lions team president Rod Wood said last week that Sutton had been at the team’s facility in Allen Park, Michigan, when news of the warrant was shared by the Sheriff’s Office. Wood said the team encouraged Sutton to “do the right thing,” turn himself in and seek counsel.

The Lions released Sutton the next day.

“After weeks of evading law enforcement, this man has finally made the right choice to turn himself in,” Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister said in the statement. “Domestic violence has no place in our community, and no one is above the law here in Hillsborough County.”

Sutton signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Lions a year ago after spending six seasons in Pittsburgh. He started all 20 games for the Lions last season, including the postseason.

No word if he was able to bail out.  Certainly, the 11-day evasion would seem to be evidence of a flight risk.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

After a breakout rookie season, WR RASHEE RICE was sitting pretty.  Then his car did some stupid driving and police are seeking him. News Nation:

Police are looking for Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice after a “major” car crash Saturday night in northeast Dallas, according to multiple reports.

A vehicle believed to be registered or leased to Rice crashed on North Central Expressway at about 6:20 p.m. Saturday, The Dallas Morning News and TMZ reported, citing law enforcement.

ABC News’ Dallas affiliate WFAA posted dashcam video of the purported incident. TMZ also published photos of the crash site and reported that six cars were involved.

According to the Dallas Morning News, police said that the “preliminary investigation determined a driver in a Chevrolet Corvette and a driver in a Lamborghini were speeding in the far left lane…where both lost control of their vehicles.”

This reportedly caused the Corvette and Lamborghini to crash, resulting in four other vehicles to crash, dealing minor injuries to the people inside the other four cars.

Those inside the Corvette and Lamborghini “all ran from the crash without stopping to see if anyone needed medical help or providing any of their information,” according to a Dallas police spokesperson. Police are still trying to identify the suspects.

The Dallas Morning News reported that a police call sheet listed “Rice as the suspected driver of the Corvette.” However, it was not immediately clear if he is suspected of any charges or if anyone was seriously injured, according to ESPN.

Rice, a native of a Dallas suburb and a Southern Methodist University graduate, won a Super Bowl with the Chiefs in his rookie season and finished with the second most receiving yards behind tight end Travis Kelce.

TMZ has grainy photos of the four total occupants of the two vehicles leaving the crash scene.  No word of to whom the Lamborghini might belong.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Should the suddenly woeful Patriots use the 3^rd overall pick on the 3^rd-best QB in the draft?  Chad Graff of The Athletic:

The New England Patriots are in a weird spot in the 2024 NFL Draft, ready to take a quarterback with the No. 3 pick in a year when quarterbacks will probably go with the first three picks. That leaves them unable to definitively make their preference known between the two most likely options for them: North Carolina’s Drake Maye and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels of LSU.

In all likelihood, the Patriots will sit comfortably and take whichever of those two falls to them with the third pick.

But the road to this point has been vastly different for Maye and Daniels, and what they offer their next team (and, importantly, what they don’t) is also quite different. So with the draft quickly approaching, let’s break down the strengths and weaknesses of each quarterback and examine how he would fit in New England.

We’ll break down Daniels later this week, so Maye is up first.

Strengths

Maye looks the part. Let’s start with that. He has everything you’d want in a modern quarterback. Arm strength? Check. Mobility? Check. Size? Check. Pocket presence? Check.

He was a four-star recruit out of Charlotte, N.C., and initially committed to Alabama before Bryce Young’s commitment there resulted in Maye’s changing course to stay close to home. He also had a good relationship with North Carolina coach Mack Brown stemming from his family’s long relationship with him. Maye’s dad, Mark, played quarterback at UNC (then had a brief NFL stint) before joining Brown’s staff as a graduate assistant in the late 1980s. That’s where Mark met his wife, Aimee, who had been an all-state high school basketball player from Charlotte. (More on the athletic family they raised later.)

Maye redshirted his freshman year in Chapel Hill while Sam Howell, who became a good friend, was the starting quarterback. Maye then took over as a redshirt freshman in 2022. What followed was an incredible season as Maye totaled 4,321 passing yards in 14 games to go with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

That season set massive expectations and put Maye in the discussion to be drafted with the No. 1 pick in 2024 before he played a single game as a sophomore.

Maye’s numbers dropped in 2023 with less talent around him, but the high-level traits remained. His arm strength was evident as a freshman, but in 2023, he built on his mobility and became adept at throwing on the run.

This is where Maye can really hurt opposing defenses. He’s excellent on designed bootlegs, which Kevin Stefanski, new Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s former boss with the Cleveland Browns, loves. It’s easy to envision Van Pelt designing a wide zone rushing game with Maye rolling out on play actions off it.

Maye can use his legs on more than just designed rollouts, though; it’s an underrated part of his game. He had 56 rushes of 10 or more yards in the last two seasons, the second most in Division I (behind only Daniels).

Maye also shows football smarts in knowing when to run, saving those plays for important moments. He accounted for 42 first downs while running the ball on third or fourth down in the past two seasons.

Still, his arm and size are his top attributes. He’s 6 feet 4, 223 pounds and has the strength to make any throw on the field with above-average velocity.

It’s also worth noting his family’s athleticism. Maye is the youngest of four boys, all of whom played Division I sports (two played basketball at UNC, and another was a baseball pitcher at the University of Florida).

Plus, Maye is still just 21, the second youngest of the top quarterbacks in this draft (J.J. McCarthy is five months younger).

Weaknesses

The most obvious place to start is the dip in Maye’s stats last season and the inexplicably bad plays he occasionally made. North Carolina switched offenses before the 2023 season, opting for a more balanced approach rather than the Air Raid roots of Maye’s freshman season. Maye also lost his two best wide receivers (who combined for 181 targets Maye’s freshman year), and his offensive line got worse.

Instead of trying to manage within that (less advantageous) system and setup, Maye often tried to play superhero, forcing throws and making ill-advised decisions. Similar to Josh Allen coming out of college, Maye had multiple plays last season when he should’ve either thrown the ball away or taken a sack instead of trying to pull off a miracle.

Perhaps a veteran assistant like Van Pelt can coach that out of him, but it’s a problem worth noting.

Maye’s arm strength is also generally a strength, but there are times when he’ll miss easy underneath throws because he’s delivering an all-out fastball even when it’s not necessary.

The other odd stat that could be the result of a small sample size or something more concerning is the way Maye seemed to struggle against the halftime adjustments made by opponents. In the first half of his college games, Maye had a 39-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That ratio dropped to 24-to-12 in the second half of games. Of the top six quarterbacks in this draft class, Maye threw the fewest second-half touchdowns and the most second-half interceptions in 2023. Maybe that was because of coaching points he received or because he felt he had to force plays with a good but not great North Carolina team. Either way, it feels worth mentioning.

Finally, and this could also just be a small sample size, but two of Maye’s worst collegiate games were his final two. With UNC at 8-2 and ranked in the top 25, Maye struggled in disappointing losses to Clemson (16-of-36 passing for 209 yards, one touchdown and an interception) and NC State (22-of-38 passing for 254 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions) to close the 2023 season. Perhaps it was the lack of talent around him or because he had one eye on the draft, but either way, it’s not ideal that his two most recent games were among his worst.

Verdict

It’s easy to envision Maye fitting in with just about any offense given his size, arm strength and mobility. He’s what a modern quarterback should look like. There are areas he needs to work on, including playing within structure and avoiding catastrophic plays that result from reckless decisions. But even at his age, he could be a day-one starter for the Patriots. Van Pelt could design a balanced offense with zone rushes and play-action passes that get Maye on the move and take advantage of his ability to scramble and throw on the run. Then, if Maye continues to develop, the offense could be designed more and more around his arm.

NEW YORK JETS

This from Diana Russini and Jacob Robinson of The Athletic:

The Jets are favored to draft TE Brock Bowers, who would add needed receiver depth for Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of the Jets’ GM QB, what are you hearing, Dianna?

What Dianna’s Hearing: Aaron Rodgers’ strong grip

Last offseason, we saw Rodgers bring along friends like Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard. After a failed season, Colin Cowherd asked me if the dynamic has changed in New York.

My answer: No, Rodgers hasn’t lost any power at all. He’s still involved in every decision the Jets make.

That said, Rodgers and the Jets are doing everything to move on from last year’s dysfunction. They made decent signings this offseason, adding All-Pro LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams (plus the addition discussed below), but again it comes down to one thing: Health.

Back to you, Jacob.

THIS AND THAT

RANKING AND MATCHING THE QBs

Jordan Reid of ESPN.com with the plusses and minuses of 13 QBs in the draft.

How do the best quarterbacks stack up? I ranked every passer with a draftable evaluation in my sixth (and final) edition of the 2024 QB Hot Board, an in-depth list that provides a look at the top quarterbacks. That includes 13 guys. We’ll hit brief breakdowns of strengths and weaknesses, along with each player’s current draft stock.

1. Caleb Williams, USC

Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 214 pounds

Class: Junior | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: Williams had ups and downs over the course of his junior season but still showcased No. 1-pick-caliber traits. His arm strength, accuracy and improvisational skills have him sitting atop the quarterback rankings and scouts see him as one of the best QB prospects of the past decade. What makes him so special? He always has an answer, no matter the defensive structure presented to him.

This past season, Williams threw for 3,633 yards, 30 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. With the instincts to create off-script, he regularly generates explosive plays outside the normal framework of the offense. On plays outside the pocket, Williams threw for 11 touchdown passes and had an 81.5 QBR. But teams also forced him to play more within structure last season, and he responded by completing 72.9% of his throws from inside the pocket (up from 70.3% in 2022).

“He’s special and whoever gets him will have a franchise-altering type of talent,” an NFC scout said.

The Bears had a large contingent on hand at Williams’ pro day, including GM Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus. Williams looked as advertised in that setting, displaying a smooth and compact delivery. There was an emphasis on throws from inside the pocket and within structure, and he looked comfortable.

Where he needs work: His reliance on big plays and his ability to play outside of structure can be a gift — and a curse. His success with those passes outside of structure often leads to him welcoming avoidable pressure, as he passes up options available early in progressions in favor of the bigger play. There are plenty of times on tape when Williams could have gotten the ball out quicker, but because he knows he can put on his Superman cape, he instead holds onto it longer than necessary.

The key to Williams’ success at the next level? Being paired with a playcaller who embraces the chaos but also understands how to settle his game and stress the importance of not getting bored with the easy throws that are there for the taking.

Potential NFL team fit: Chicago Bears

2. Drake Maye, North Carolina

Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 223 pounds

Class: Redshirt sophomore | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: North Carolina lost many of its offensive skill position standouts, leaving a lot on Maye’s shoulders this past season. Even so, he showed consistency in attacking downfield with his A-level arm strength. He adjusted to the new personnel, and getting receiver Devontez Walker into the lineup after initially being ruled ineligible helped him. Maye has the poise, instincts and accuracy to get the ball to his desired spots, and his ball placement on throws to the intermediate and deep levels of the field stands out.

Maye had 3,608 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns and another nine scores on the ground. His 63 completions on throws at least 15 yards downfield ranked second in the FBS.

I was at Maye’s pro day, and he was able to show that he is comfortable taking snaps and making throws from under center. And the great velocity that he can put on his passes was very evident.

Where he needs work: The lapses in judgment on some throws is concerning, and the UNC offense occasionally got stagnant for long periods during games. Consistency with his accuracy into man coverage is one specific thing to watch. Maye only completed 41.7% of his passes against those looks — the national average was 51.1% — which matches what we see on tape. His ball placement on quick throws to the short and intermediate areas of the field can be sporadic.

Maye also tends to lock onto his first read too long in hopes of the receiver coming open and then forces throws instead of progressing to the next option. Eliminating options pre-snap and getting through progressions more efficiently will be important in his development.

Potential NFL team fit: Washington Commanders

3. Jayden Daniels, LSU

Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 210 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: Daniels transferred in from Arizona State before his junior season in 2022 and quickly became the leader of the Tigers’ offensive attack. An up-and-down first year with LSU raised some questions, but ever since an inconsistent performance against Florida State to open 2023, Daniels took off. He finished his magical Heisman-winning season with 3,812 passing yards, 40 touchdown throws and 4 interceptions while completing 72.2% of his passes. He finished first in QBR (95.6) and yards per attempt (11.7).

The biggest reason for his 2023 surge was deep accuracy. Daniels’ 34 completions of 20-plus air yards ranked fourth in the FBS, and he amazingly had 22 touchdown passes and zero interceptions there. Daniels didn’t throw at the combine, but that downfield touch popped at his 58-throw pro day. (He had a few errant passes on out-breaking routes but was accurate to targets between the hashmarks.)

Pocket patience was an issue coming into the season and many scouts said Daniels constantly left the pocket prematurely without letting routes develop. But his composure improved exponentially. Defenses tried to blitz Daniels, yet that’s when he was at his best. He completed 71.1% of his throws with 17 touchdown passes and zero interceptions when blitzed. Daniels’ running ability also challenged defenses, racking up 1,230 rushing yards (excluding sack yardage lost) and 10 scores on the ground.

Where he needs work: Although he had success on the ground this past season, Daniels has a slender frame and takes way too many excruciating hits. He must learn to save his body by sliding more or simply throwing the ball out of bounds. LSU surrendered 22 sacks of Daniels this past season, and five were on failed scramble attempts. Daniels did weigh in at 210 pounds at his pro day, alleviating some concern here.

Potential NFL team fit: New England Patriots

4. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 219 pounds

Class: Junior | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: The Wolverines placed more trust in McCarthy this past season and it paid dividends; he led them to their first national title since 1997. He completed 72.3% of his passes (sixth in the country) and was accurate to all levels of the field. His 88.2 Total QBR was third in the FBS. One of the more impressive parts of McCarthy’s game is his efficiency on play-action, where he completed 76.3% of his passes (80 attempts) and took advantage of defenses selling out to stop the run.

I really like the ball placement that I saw on McCarthy’s tape last season, too. He hardly ever forces his intended targets to work to haul in passes, putting throws within their body frames. He was off-target on only 8.1% of his throws this past season, finishing with 2,991 yards, 22 TD passes and 4 interceptions. And check out his third-down numbers: 67.1% completion percentage, 9.2 yards per attempt, 6 TD throws and no picks. At his pro day, McCarthy consistently got the ball out on time and accurately, displaying strong footwork from under center and the shotgun.

Where he needs work: Lapses in decision-making plagued him in the past and he really needed to learn to live to see another day by throwing the ball out of bounds or hitting his checkdown to avoid bad turnovers. For the most part, he improved there. McCarthy threw three of his four interceptions in one game — against Bowling Green in September.

The same questions we had about McCarthy going into the season still exist because of Michigan’s run-heavy formula. How much more potential is there to uncover? McCarthy’s usage in the Wolverines’ system is why opinions are so mixed on his outlook at the next level. And his combine workout — which was a little inconsistent — didn’t answer many of the lingering questions.

Lastly, scouts still want to see a better understanding of how to mix speeds on his throws. McCarthy is a fastball-only passer who hasn’t quite figured out when and how to put touch on throws, and we saw that at his pro day.

Potential NFL team fit: Minnesota Vikings

5. Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 216 pounds

Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Late Day 1 or early Day 2

Where he excels: The left-hander became the first player in program history to have at least 400 passing yards in three straight games to start the 2023 season, and he finished with 4,903 passing yards (most in the country), 36 TD throws and 11 interceptions over 15 games, with the team’s lone loss coming against Michigan in the National Championship Game.

The Washington offense thrives on deep shots and with an FBS-leading 46 completions on passes of 20-plus yards, Penix has an explosive arm and a quick release. He is most comfortable playing within the framework of the offense and is at his best inside the pocket.

That arm strength was on full display at the Senior Bowl. The ball just exploded out out of his hand and he drove it to the outer portions of the field with ease. He was also arguably the biggest QB winner of the combine, showing off his arm on throws to the sideline. And his pro day throwing session was “as expected,” per an NFL scout. Penix kept showing off that deep accuracy, with multiple downfield throws that fell right into the hands of his receivers. He also ran a sub-4.6 40-yard dash and jumped 36.5 inches in the vertical jump.

Where he needs work: The biggest question raised about Penix will be his injury history — two torn ACLs in his right knee and multiple injuries to his nonthrowing shoulder — though he played in at least 13 games in both 2022 and 2023. A lot of evaluators saw him as a Day 3 player coming into the season but acknowledge that he will keep climbing draft boards as he distances himself from those injury concerns. Penix said that his combine medicals went well.

Outside of durability, scouts wanted to see how well Penix played when defenses knocked him off his initial launch point in the pocket. We saw those issues bubble up in the title game. He can easily scan the field and make throws from a clean pocket, but there are still questions about how he handles pressure. In 15 games, Penix was hit on 21.5% of his dropbacks (11th-least in the nation) and sacked 11 times. But when he gets outside the pocket, he completed 38.5% of his throws, 114th in the country.

Penix had a prime opportunity to impress scouts at the Senior Bowl, but it ended up being a week of highs and lows — he didn’t do much to change prior opinions. Yes, the arm strength immediately stood out, but his accuracy was up and down. His pro day had an emphasis on throws on the move, as Penix continues to try to show more consistency there.

Potential NFL team fit: Las Vegas Raiders

6. Bo Nix, Oregon

Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 214 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Early Day 2

Where he excels: Operating in an up-tempo hurry-up Oregon offense, Nix wins with a lot of pre-snap decisions. He forces defenses to come up and tackle in the underneath areas, making him the perfect passer for that offense, which aims to stretch defenses horizontally and pick certain spots to make throws downfield. Nix shows a high-level understanding of space reads and leverage, and he did a good job distributing the ball to the Ducks’ playmakers. This past season, he threw for 4,508 yards with 45 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions.

On tape, there wasn’t a more efficient passer in college football than Nix in 2023. He led the country in completion rate by almost 4% (77.4%) and threw multiple touchdown passes in all 14 games, surpassing Kellen Moore for the longest streak by an FBS player in the past 20 seasons. Nix keeps plays alive, too, with the scrambling ability to escape and gain positive yards when his initial reads aren’t available. He had six rushing TDs in 2023.

At the Senior Bowl, his accuracy and decisiveness appeared in spots throughout practices. He wastes little time making decisions and getting the ball out. At the combine, Nix has an impressive throwing session in terms of accuracy, operating on time and showing precise ball placement. That continued at the Oregon pro day. Accuracy, clean footwork and quick decisions were my takeaways. There’s hardly any bad placement on his passes, and the ball comes out lightning quick.

Where he needs work: Nix’s limitations are apparent on the more challenging downfield passes. While he’s surgical in the underneath areas, he’s hesitant to push the ball to the intermediate-to-deep spots. His 6.3 air yards per pass attempt ranked 120th in the country. His struggles driving the ball and getting consistent velocity behind his throws were apparent at the combine, too. However, Nix clearly wanted to address the arm strength questions at his pro day, completing multiple passes 55-plus yards down the field with great placement.

Scouts wanted to see how Nix could operate outside the Oregon scheme at the Senior Bowl, but it remains relatively unanswered. He was uneven throughout the week in ball placement and driving the ball.

Potential NFL team fit: Denver Broncos

7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina

Height: 6-foot | Weight: 211 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 2

Where he excels: Rattler was among the best QBs in the SEC despite the team’s 5-7 record. Watch the tape from his season-opening performance against North Carolina. Yes, he was sacked nine times, but he finished that game 30-of-39 (76.9%) for 353 passing yards. Then he had a strong first half on the road against top-ranked Georgia two weeks later, going 16-of-18 for 152 yards and a touchdown pass to help the Gamecocks to a 14-3 halftime lead. (One of the best teams in the country eventually came back, though.)

When Rattler is protected, he has excelled. He looked like a more decisive and consistent player this past season. With B-level arm strength to drive the ball, his confidence and comfort in the South Carolina scheme put him back on the draft radar. Rattler finished with 3,186 yards, 19 touchdown throws and 8 interceptions.

Among the Senior Bowl quarterbacks, Rattler probably had the most to gain. After an underwhelming first day that included a bad interception, he rebounded and showcased a natural throwing motion and a live arm. The ball consistently came out on time. And after running a disappointing 4.95-second run on the 40-yard dash at the combine, Rattler regrouped and finished his Indy workout strong during the throwing portion. He remained in control and was accurate to all parts of the field.

Rattler arguably had the best pro day I watched in person. He’s an effortless thrower, and his accuracy, confidence and footwork were consistent throughout the 63-throw workout. An AFC area scout even told me, “I think a team may take a chance on him somewhere in Round 2.”

Where he needs work: The South Carolina offensive line struggled to find continuity, leaving Rattler pressured at a high rate (38.5% of dropbacks, 26th-most in the FBS) and taking 40 sacks (fourth-most in the FBS). And while he completed 54.1% of his passes under pressure (eighth best), he missed opportunities to get the ball out quicker by simply hitting hot reads or built-in routes to avoid incoming pressure.

Potential NFL team fit: New York Giants

8. Michael Pratt, Tulane

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 217 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Day 3

Where he excels: After Pratt helped Tulane to a huge Cotton Bowl win over USC last January, scouts were buzzing about him coming into the 2023 season. He was nearly flawless in the opener, going 14-of-15 for 294 passing yards and four touchdown passes against South Alabama. But he suffered a left knee injury in the fourth quarter that sidelined him for two games, returning against Nicholls in Week 4 but missing a good matchup against Ole Miss, which was costly. He closed his season with 2,406 yards, 22 TD throws and five interceptions over 11 games before opting out of Tulane’s Military Bowl game.

The program’s leader in career touchdown passes (90), Pratt has shown slightly above-average arm strength and seems to always be in control. His three-level accuracy and comfort in executing NFL concepts will be key components of his evaluation.

At the Senior Bowl, Pratt’s accuracy and ability to layer the ball were consistent throughout the week. We also saw a smooth and fluid throwing motion. It was more of the same at the combine, where he displayed good rhythm in his passing.

Where he needs work: Pratt isn’t able to escape when things around him begin to crumble, which means he has to improve in picking up those pressure points when reading the defensive structure.

Potential NFL team fit: Atlanta Falcons

9. Jordan Travis, Florida State

Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 200 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3

Where he excels: The process is hardly ever conventional with Travis, but the end result is usually positive. He has made a name for himself with his playmaking ability, showing creativity outside of structure. He’s one of the more talented dual-threat passers in the 2024 group, having rushed for seven TDs in four straight seasons. And Travis had 18 career games with a passing and rushing score in the same game, a Florida State record.

Travis also showed more consistency from the pocket in 2023. Overall, he threw for 2,756 passing yards with 20 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions, and his 80.1 Total QBR was 14th in the country. Travis’ season came to an end after a lower left leg injury in November. He said at the combine that he expects to be healthy for camp this summer.

Where he needs work: All that said about his ability outside of structure, Travis tends to rely on it too often. Issues pop up when teams are able to put pressure on him and I want to see him stand in the pocket and deliver under duress more. Travis’ ability to make plays has scouts excited, but more consistent play inside structure is important. And because of his leg injury, he missed out on crucial parts of the pre-draft process; scouts were looking forward to seeing him compete in an all-star game.

Potential NFL team fit: New Orleans Saints

10. Sam Hartman, Notre Dame

Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 211 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA

Where he excels: The ACC’s all-time leader in touchdown passes (110) elected to finish his career in South Bend, an opportunity to show he could operate a traditional offense instead of the unconventional Wake Forest scheme. Notre Dame relies more on rhythm and timing and Hartman threw for 2,689 yards with 24 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions in 12 games.

“I’m so glad that he got out of that Wake offense because he wasn’t doing anything that projects to the next level,” said an AFC area scout.

Getting the ball out quickly hasn’t been a problem for Hartman, as he’s a quick decision-maker. But he has also been accurate on deep throws, even though he has arm strength limitations. Hartman had 11 touchdowns to one interception and an 88.5 QBR on throws 20-plus yards downfield this past season.

Part of the reason that Hartman transferred to Notre Dame was to gain experience in a pro-style system, and he looked comfortable operating from both shotgun and under center at the Senior Bowl. His accuracy in the short-to-intermediate areas was consistent all week in Mobile, Alabama.

Where he needs work: While he has had plenty of success in the pocket, pressure has rushed him into making premature decisions. When under pressure last season, Hartman completed only 45.5% of his throws, which ranked 71st in the FBS. He doesn’t have the playmaking ability to create extra opportunities outside of the normal structure of plays with any consistency.

Hartman also struggled a little pushing the ball down the field at the Senior Bowl. That came back up at the combine; while he was accurate and in rhythm, he was a step behind other QBs in ball velocity. Hartman will need to be in a system that’s predicated on rhythm and timing underneath, which matches his strengths as a passer.

Potential NFL team fit: Los Angeles Rams

11. Joe Milton III, Tennessee

Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 235 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA

Where he excels: After starting his career at Michigan in 2018, Milton transferred to Tennessee in 2021. His arm talent stands out right away — he has the arm strength to throw the football through a brick wall, and we saw him heave a few incredible deep balls at the combine. He’s capable of throwing 70-plus yards. And at his pro day, Milton had to move outside the indoor facility for his final 10 passes — all deep balls — to avoid hitting the ceiling on his 75-yard throws.

But while Milton attempted maybe too many fastballs in the past, I saw improved patience and better decision-making in the underneath areas this past season. We saw it at the pro day, too. Milton showed better touch, anticipation and accuracy.

Milton finished the regular season with 2,813 passing yards, 20 touchdown throws and 5 interceptions, and he closed with his best game, a 383-yard, four-touchdown passing performance against Vanderbilt (he also added two rushing scores). He looked the part at the Senior Bowl, with great size and arm talent. There wasn’t another QB in Mobile who could match his pass velocity.

Where he needs work: Scouts were excited to see if Milton could make a leap during his first full season as a starter in an offense that’s known to stretch defenses. But as an AFC scout said, “He’ll wow you up close with his size and arm, but we’re still waiting on all of it to click with him, and it just hasn’t happened consistently enough yet.”

While Milton’s physical traits are apparent, he still struggles with deep accuracy. He completed 28.6% of his passes of 20-plus air yards (tied for 104th in the FBS). Touch on vertical throws remains a concern despite the arm strength. He has to learn to layer the ball to his desired spots.

That showed at the Senior Bowl and we saw scattershot ball placement each day of practice. As we saw on tape, Milton put too much pace on many of his throws, negatively impacting his accuracy.

Potential NFL team fit: Indianapolis Colts

12. Austin Reed, Western Kentucky

Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 220 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA

Where he excels: Playing in a high-octane offense that looks to attack all areas of the field, Reed displayed steady growth during his senior season. Even though he has a very average arm, Reed is quick to decipher leverage on the perimeter and takes advantage of space given to him by defenses, wasting little time in getting the ball out. The Western Kentucky scheme uses a lot of 10 and 11 personnel sets, so he has good experience with NFL concepts. Reed is already comfortable with anticipating throws that are about to be open and he’s aggressive with attacking one-on-one matchups. On the season, he threw for 3,340 yards with 31 touchdown passes and 11 picks.

He was excellent in the red zone, too. Inside the 20-yard line, he completed 62% of his passes (50 attempts) for 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Reed also added four rushing scores and didn’t take a single sack in that area all year.

Where he needs work: I’d like to see Reed become more consistent when facing pressure. In those situations, he completed 43.1% of his passes (tied for 91st in the FBS), and five of his 11 interceptions came when defenses sped him up. Reed has some mobility and the Hilltoppers’ offense incorporated him on designed QB runs, but it’s not an area where he will stand out at the next level.

Reed didn’t do much to stand out from his counterparts at the combine, too. When the routes were timing-based, his accuracy and anticipation were efficient. But as the routes became deeper, Reed’s arm limitations were very apparent.

Potential NFL team fit: Miami Dolphins

13. Carter Bradley, South Alabama

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 216 pounds

Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA

Where he excels: Bradley started his career at Toledo and transferred to South Alabama before the 2021 season. In Year 1 with the Jaguars, he set new program marks in passing yards (3,326) and touchdown passes (28). The son of longtime NFL coach Gus Bradley, he has strong understanding of the game and how to attack defenses — he always plays with a plan. He was given a lot of freedom at the line of scrimmage, working to get the South Alabama offense into the correct play.

Bradley has an average arm and solid decisiveness, and he finished last season with 2,660 passing yards, 19 touchdown throws and seven interceptions over 11 games. He followed it up with a productive week of practice at the Senior Bowl, and multiple scouts who I spoke to suggested he could be a surprise late-round pick.

Where he needs work: The biggest concern with Bradley comes when he is forced away from rhythm or when he has to attack down the field. His 7.5 air yards per passing attempt ranked 100th in the FBS. The South Alabama offense specializes in stretching defenses horizontally with quick-game concepts, and Bradley will need to become a more consistent passer in those short-to-intermediate areas to have success.

Potential NFL team fit: San Francisco 49ers

2024 DRAFT

Matt Miller of ESPN.com says that although 32 players have to be drafted in the first round, there are only 18 “true” first rounders in this year’s crop of draftees (and Michigan QB J.J. McCARTHY who could go #4 is not one of them):

How many first-round prospects are there in the 2024 NFL draft class?

You might be thinking the answer is 32, because there will be 32 selections in Round 1 come April 25 in Detroit. But we aren’t talking about how many players will be drafted in Round 1; we’re talking about how many carry a true Round 1 grade.

NFL teams don’t typically deem many prospects in a given class as Round 1-caliber talents and never 32 of them. More realistically, around 15 per class earn a real first-round grade, though the number varies by team and scouting department. These sacred evaluations are reserved for prospects who would be Day 1 selections regardless of year, and my own rule of thumb is whether the player would have been one in each of the past five classes.

Confusing? Welcome to the world of scouting.

I tackled my list for the 2024 class with a strict grading scale after handing out 20 first-round scores in 2023, and I ended up with 18 names — up from 16 in late February. Here are the players who deserve a first-round grade on my board. (Players’ overall rankings are in parentheses after their names.)

Quarterback (3)

Caleb Williams, USC (No. 1)

Comp: Aaron Rodgers

The top overall player in the 2024 draft class, Williams combines excellent arm strength, mobility and field vision with a knack for making creative plays when defenses close in on the pocket. At 6-foot-1 and 214 pounds, he is responsible for 93 touchdowns over the past two seasons at USC (72 passing, 21 rushing).

Sure, he will need to clean up the fumbles (eight in 2023) and get the ball out faster (3.14 seconds to throw on average), but the NFL-style playmaking and jaw-dropping passing ability has scouts calling him a rare prospect. What he’s able to do on second-effort plays is impressive, and Williams would have been my top-rated quarterback in each of the past five draft classes. He looks like a lock to go No. 1 right now.

Jayden Daniels, LSU (No. 5)

Comp: Lamar Jackson

The Heisman Trophy winner was the most improved player in college football in 2023. He entered the season with a Day 3 grade from NFL scouts but put together a 50-touchdown campaign (40 passing, 10 rushing) with just four interceptions. Daniels is not only the draft’s best deep-ball thrower — he had a 99.6 QBR targeting vertical routes — he’s also the most dangerous runner among the quarterbacks. The 6-foot-4, 210-pounder had 3,812 passing yards and 1,134 rushing yards last season.

Drake Maye, North Carolina (No. 9)

Comp: Justin Herbert

Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms used to tell me “size is a trait,” and if you subscribe to that philosophy, you’ll love the 6-foot-4, 223-pound redshirt sophomore from North Carolina. Maye is poised in the pocket but also mobile when necessary, and he has proven the past two seasons that he’s capable of putting a team on his back with awesome arm talent and the toughness to pick up difficult yards as a runner. He has to work on footwork mechanics and cut down on interceptions — he threw 16 in the past two years combined — but there is a lot to like in his game. Maye threw for 3,608 yards and 24 touchdown passes last season.

Running back (0)

After seeing Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs picked in the top 12 in 2023, it was fair to wonder if the running back position was seeing a comeback in draft priority. But we aren’t quite there, at least not yet. The 2024 class doesn’t feature a player ranked inside my top 40. There are solid backs capable of helping NFL teams immediately — Jonathon Brooks (Texas, No. 45 overall) leads a list of seven RBs with Day 2 grades — but none has the right mix of traits to qualify here.

Wide receiver (5)

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (No. 2)

Comp: A.J. Green

Harrison — the son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr. — has rare traits, including great size (6-foot-4, 209 pounds), body control, agility and flexibility, along with the fastest hands this side of Tyreek Hill. You don’t often see big wide receivers show the flexibility and body control that Harrison does in order to get low to snag ground balls. And he’s consistently making plays that show off an elite catch radius. He accumulated 2,474 receiving yards and 28 TDs over the past two seasons, despite defenses knowing the ball is going his way.

Rome Odunze, Washington (No. 3)

Comp: Ja’Marr Chase

Odunze is a physical, aggressive player when the ball is in his hands, and he sheds defenders with his 6-foot-3, 212-pound frame. Odunze combined for 167 catches, 2,785 yards and 20 touchdowns over the past two seasons while making a name for himself as a back shoulder fade specialist. His toughness pre- and post-catch is fantastic, and his ability to consistently beat man coverage and dominate on 50-50 balls is why he gets the Chase comp.

Malik Nabers, LSU (No. 4)

Comp: Stefon Diggs

He’s the best after-the-catch receiver in the draft class. The 6-foot, 199-pound Nabers averaged 18 yards per catch on 86 grabs last season, with 6.8 coming after the catch. He also turned in 14 touchdowns and 1,546 yards in a breakout season. Nabers’ start-stop quicks are high-end, and his field vision to find running lanes with the ball in his hands is special. I also love that over the past two seasons he had a drop rate of just 3.1%. Nabers is sure-handed, fast, explosive and ready to be an NFL WR1.

Brian Thomas Jr., LSU (No. 17)

Comp: Tee Higgins

Thomas burst onto the scene in 2023, leading the nation with 17 receiving touchdowns and showcasing a vertical ability at 6-foot-3 that will get him a true Round 1 grade from many teams. Thomas excels at stretching the field and uses his great agility and body control to attack passes. The way he adjusts to the ball in the air and speeds up to get into position is a WR1 quality. While raw as a route runner, Thomas’ potential is sky high.

Adonai Mitchell, Texas (No. 18)

Comp: George Pickens

Mitchell had a dominant 2023 season after transferring to Texas from Georgia, with 11 touchdown receptions and just one dropped pass. The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder ran a 4.34-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine, highlighting his burst and ability to run past defenders vertically. In five career College Football Playoff games, Mitchell had five touchdowns. He’s a gamer and a first-round pick.

Tight end (1)

Brock Bowers, Georgia (No. 10)

Comp: George Kittle

Bowers is not just a tight end; he’s an offensive playmaker. The 6-foot-3, 243-pounder is rough and ready, and unlike so many smooth-moving tight ends of this day and age, he’ll simply run over you. Bowers is physical but fast; he’s as elusive as he is powerful. And it’s why he scored 31 touchdowns over three seasons while being used as a tight end, H-back, slot receiver and sometimes tailback. Some may say he’s undersized, but Bowers’ effort and strength as a blocker are underrated. He can be a focal point for an NFL passing game from Day 1.

Offensive tackle (4)

Joe Alt, Notre Dame (No. 6)

Comp: Andrew Thomas

The son of Chiefs’ Hall of Famer John Alt, the younger Alt is a masterful technician with just two sacks allowed in the past two seasons. At 6-foot-9 and 321 pounds, he dominates defenders with his length and grip strength. Once he’s locked on, defenders are best to just wait for the whistle. Alt doesn’t have the flashy agility of other tackle prospects, but his power and technique are NFL-ready.

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State (No. 11)

Comp: Terron Armstead

A long-armed, easy-moving left tackle, Fashanu is a massive man at 6-foot-6 and 312 pounds. The 20-year-old started 20 games over the past two seasons, allowing one sack while being flagged only four times. He’s powerful and agile, and he is still getting better with more reps. Fashanu has the tools to become a top-five NFL left tackle.

Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State (No. 12)

Comp: Darnell Wright

His tape shows awesome power as a pure people-mover, but he’s also agile and nimble in space at 6-foot-6 and 324 pounds. A college right tackle, Fuaga has the movement ability and poise to play either side in the pros. He’s a plug-and-play right tackle with the ceiling of a top-five player at the position very early in his career.

Troy Fautanu, Washington (No. 16)

Comp: Peter Skoronski

Fautanu has been discussed as a potential pivot player who could move inside to guard, but after watching his combine workout and reviewing more tape, I have him sticking with his college position and playing left tackle in the NFL. His quickness and excellent arm length are adequate to cover his modest height (6-foot-4, 317 pounds). And his ability to dump defenders and finish in the run game is a thing of beauty.

Interior offensive line (0)

The 2023 draft saw one interior offensive lineman — Skoronski, who played tackle at Northwestern — drafted in the first round, and the 2024 draft could be similar. Center Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) is No. 29 on my board, while center Zach Frazier (West Virginia) and guard Cooper Beebe (Kansas State) are solid Round 2 prospects.

Edge rusher (2)

Dallas Turner, Alabama (No. 7)

Comp: Josh Allen

Turner broke out in 2023 after replacing Will Anderson Jr. as the primary pass-rusher at Alabama. He led the Crimson Tide in sacks (10) and emerged as an elite force coming off the edge, adding two forced fumbles along the way. Turner has a slim build at 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, which is where the comparison to Allen (6-foot-5, 255 pounds) comes from. Both are smooth, fast, long-armed pass-rushers. And like Allen, Turner has the upside and traits to develop into a special edge defender.

Jared Verse, Florida State (No. 14)

Comp: Trey Hendrickson

Verse dominated over two seasons at Florida State, collecting 18 sacks and 33.5 tackles for loss during that time. He’s strong at the point of attack at 6-foot-4 and 254 pounds and has the power to go toe-to-toe with NFL offensive tackles. A true 4-3 defensive end prospect with this type of power and pass-rush production is rare, which is why Verse slides in with a Round 1 grade.

Defensive tackle (1)

Byron Murphy II, Texas (No. 13)

Comp: Justin Madubuike

Murphy was asked to play out of position at Texas as a 5-technique in the team’s three-man front, but he still managed to find pass-rush production there with five sacks and 33 pressures. Murphy is stout at 6-foot-1 and 297 pounds, and his tape shows stunning first-step quickness and absolute power at the point of attack. Once he’s able to shoot gaps in the NFL, he can be a game-changer.

Linebacker (0)

Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper is my top-ranked ‘backer at No. 33 overall, while Michigan’s Junior Colson also makes the top 50 at No. 46. But there’s a good chance we don’t see anyone at the position go on Day 1 in April.

Cornerback (2)

Terrion Arnold, Alabama (No. 8)

Comp: Devon Witherspoon

Arnold was lights out in coverage last season, grabbing five interceptions and breaking up 12 passes. He’s big at 6-foot and 189 pounds, and he plays with fire and tenacity at the line of scrimmage. While he’s definitely physical, Arnold also has the quickness and speed to fly downfield with receivers. He’s a tough, instinctive and all-around great cornerback prospect.

Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (No. 15)

Comp: Jaylon Johnson

Mitchell has had the best pre-draft process of any defensive player in the class. He followed a remarkable Senior Bowl week with a combine performance that included a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6 feet, 195 pounds. Mitchell is tough and physical, and he had six interceptions over the past two seasons.

Safety (0)

The safety position might be the weakest of the 2024 draft. Tyler Nubin (Minnesota) has a top-50 ranking at No. 49 overall, but the group lacks top-end talent. However, there is good late-Day 2 and early-Day 3 value to be found here.