2022 DRAFT
Here is what Peter King hears about the draft:
At first glance, you don’t know what to make of the fact that one-third of the top-50 picks have been traded this far before the draft. But consider this factoid about 17 days before the draft: 17 picks have been traded so far this year, and 17 picks had been dealt by this point in 2020 and ’21 combined. Three reasons I see more to come:
1) As mentioned above, the GMs in the heart of the first round, picks 7 through 22, are aggressive and unafraid of big moves. Joe Schoen of the Giants (7), Seattle’s John Schneider (9), Houston’s Nick Caserio (13), Baltimore’s Eric DeCosta (14), Philly’s Howie Roseman (15, 18), New Orleans’ Mickey Loomis (16, 19), L.A.’s Tom Telesco (17) and Green Bay’s Brian Gutekunst (22) have the picks and motivation to move.
2) Look at the aggressive teams without choices in the top 35, including three (Vegas, Rams, Dolphins) without a pick in the top 85. “That’s why I think you see teams with needs trading next year’s ones and twos to move up this year,” one GM told me Sunday.
3) I’ve heard this from a couple of draft rooms: Because of wide variety of opinions on board-stacking throughout the league, some team drafting in the fifties could see its 12th-rated player still alive at 30 and be motivated to jump up there. “We could sit where we are right now and get three of the top 20 or 25 on our board,” Loomis of the Saints told me. With the 16th, 19th and 49th picks, Loomis is counting on the disparity of draft boards around the league to drop a player the Saints grade in their top 20 or so into their laps at 49.
When a team trades five picks for a 28-year-old receiver (albeit an explosive one) as Miami did for Tyreek Hill, you know we’re in a different time in the NFL. If there’s a player you love, go get him. I see a lot of deals happening between now and the end of the third round of this draft.
“It’s going to be a wild first round,” one agent predicted Sunday. “A lot of teams think Friday night, rounds two and three, is the sweet spot of this draft, so you’re going to see teams in the middle of the first motivated to deal down.”
Finally: Different teams have different motivations. I believe Schoen of the Giants, for instance, wants to come out of this draft with an extra first-round pick next year, even if it costs him this year’s seventh overall pick. So maybe he makes a deal for slightly less than the market rate, just to be in a pole position to take a quarterback if he needs to in 2023. Philadelphia, too, recalibrated with its trade of two first-rounders this year to the Saints. Makes good sense too—the Eagles are left with three picks in the first two rounds of the next three drafts, including extra first-rounders in ’22 and ’23. No team is set up better in the near future with draft capital than the Eagles.
QB Desperation
Truest words of the week, from draft maven Greg Cosell of NFL Films: “You can make the argument that every year there are two drafts: the quarterback draft, and the draft for the rest of the players. This year’s no different. It would not surprise me if we saw five quarterbacks go in the first round.”
One GM told me he sees three in the top 20, though there appear to be no sure things among the passers set to be taken. Those three are likely Kenny Pickett of Pitt, Malik Willis of Liberty and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. I’ve heard very good things about Ridder’s exchanges with teams over the past month, but each QB has his critics. Has Pickett hit his ceiling already? Can Willis develop the pocket presence teams want to see? Ridder has run NFL style concepts at Cincinnati, but he misses throws he should make and isn’t strong throwing on the run.
One of the issues is when a team picks a quarterback in the first round, there are expectations he’ll play as a rookie. Play some, at least. What if, say, a Willis would be best served with a redshirt year? Will his team feel fan, media and owner pressure to play him before his time? That’s an inescapable issue when a guy drafted to be the future at the most important position in the game comes onto the scene. Sometimes, pressure foils the best-laid plans.
Chris Simms, the QB maven for NBC Sports, likes Ole Miss’ Matt Corral as his QB1, for his quick release, strong arm and quick feet. But Simms predicts only two in the first round: Pickett and Willis. He thinks Detroit should take Corral late in the first or early second (the Lions have the 32nd and 34th overall picks, last in the first round and second in the second round). “Corral really excites me,” Simms said. “He’s got the quickest release I’ve seen in a while.”
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Chad Reuter of NFL.com has submitted a four-round Mock Draft. He has sees lots of value for first round QBs, but surprisingly the Panthers pass at number 6. Here is Round 1:
Sean Payton might no longer coach the Saints, but GM Mickey Loomis and new coach Dennis Allen continue to make aggressive moves with the team’s draft picks. They pulled off the first big picks-only trade in this year’s cycle, sending first- (18th overall), third- (101) and seventh-rounders (237) in 2022, as well as a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 second-rounder to Philadelphia for two of the Eagles’ three first-round picks (Nos. 16, 19) this year, as well as a sixth-rounder (194).
While the trade appears somewhat lop-sided in a vacuum, New Orleans might be banking on recouping some or all of that lost value via compensation from another franchise interested down the line in hiring Payton, who is still under contract with the Saints.
This mock draft rolls with the idea the Saints are packaging their newly acquired first-rounders to move into the top five for a future signal-caller. They could wait for a quarterback to fall to them at No. 16 or trade into a lower spot in the top 10 for the apple of their eye, but that approach invites competition from other teams looking at those same prospects.
Interestingly, the last time a “two-for-one” trade of current-year first-round selections happened was 2003, when the Jets and Saints both pulled off the feat to move up to No. 4 (Dewayne Robertson) and No. 6 (Johnathan Sullivan), respectively.
This mock follows the script from 19 years ago, with another team joining the Saints in sending its two first-rounders to climb up the draft board.
1 Jacksonville Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson Michigan · Edge · Senior
The Jaguars have a tough choice in front of them, but for now, I’ll stick with the athletic, determined Hutchinson over fellow pass rushers Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux, as well as offensive lineman Ickey Ekwonu.
2 Detroit Lions
Malik Willis Liberty · QB · Senior (RS)
Detroit could take Travon Walker or Kayvon Thibodeaux with this pick, but Willis is the player who would make the biggest impact on the future of the franchise. His playmaking ability and personality will allow him to lead the Lions to a playoff win during his career, something missing from their résumé for the past 30 years.
3 Houston Texans
Ickey Ekwonu N.C. State · OT · Junior
Ickey will be a dominant guard or could step in at right tackle this year with a potential move to the left side when Laremy Tunsil is no longer in Houston.
4 Seattle Seahawks (PROJECTED TRADE WITH NY JETS)
Matt Corral Mississippi · QB · Junior (RS)
The Seahawks trade ahead of Carolina and New Orleans, giving up their 2023 first-round pick and a 2022 fifth-rounder for one of the Jets’ two fourth-rounders (No. 111). Corral’s toughness and quick release might be more enticing to NFL teams than they are to those who cover the league.
5 New Orleans Saints (PROJECTED TRADE WITH NY GIANTS)
Kenny Pickett Pittsburgh · QB · Senior
The Saints move up to take whichever of the top three passers are available in a deal similar to the one San Francisco made last year to select Trey Lance at No. 3 overall. Pickett’s experience, athleticism and accuracy from the pocket should allow him to have at least a Derek Carr-level NFL career. Veteran passer Andy Dalton, the team’s current QB2, gets bitten again, just one year after signing with the Bears to be their starter only to see them trade up for Justin Fields one month later.
6 Carolina Panthers
Evan Neal Alabama · OT · Junior
If the Panthers don’t jump to Houston’s pick (No. 3), then a trade for veteran Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield seems likely (which might have been the team’s plan all along). Neal’s huge frame bolsters Carolina’s left tackle spot for whomever takes over QB1 duties.
7 New York Giants (from Chicago)
Kayvon Thibodeaux Oregon · Edge · Junior
Imagine Thibodeaux’s strength and bend coming off the same side of the line as Leonard Williams or crashing inside on a twist with Dexter Lawrence. … Offensive linemen won’t know what to do.
8 Atlanta Falcons
Travon Walker Georgia · Edge · Junior
It will be interesting to see if Atlanta goes with a receiver or Walker in this situation, as the team’s depth chart is severely lacking at both positions. Walker’s strength, length and inside-out versatility might win out, though, with the Falcons more likely to find good value at receiver in the second round.
9 New York Jets (from Denver) PROJECTED TRADE WITH SEATTLE
Sauce Gardner Cincinnati · CB · Junior
Gardner’s tape was very good (even though he wasn’t tested often because of his talent) and his combine workout sealed the top-10 deal. The Jets need playmakers in the secondary, so his length and tenacity should be coveted.
10 Philadelphia Eagles (from Seattle) PROJECTED TRADE WITH NY JETS
Jordan Davis Georgia · DT · Senior
The Eagles had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year. Davis immediately rectifies that issue with his block-out-the-sun build. GM Howie Roseman continues his wheeling-and-dealing ways, giving up third- and fifth-round picks to move up five spots for Davis.
11 Washington Commanders
Garrett Wilson Ohio State · WR · Junior
Whether it’s the lean, speedy Wilson or the tall, agile Drake London, Commanders lead receiver Terry McLaurin applauds the addition of anyone who can free him up downfield. Don’t think he’d mind having another former Buckeye as a running mate.
12 Pittsburgh Steelers PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA
Desmond Ridder Cincinnati · QB · Senior (RS)
GM Kevin Colbert was willing to give up second- and third-round picks to move up 10 spots to No. 10 overall for linebacker Devin Bush in 2019. So it’s not a stretch to think he would give up a future first- and third-rounder (equivalent value to those aforementioned current-year selections) for a quarterback with maturity, poise and striding open-field speed like Ridder.
13 Houston Texans (from Cleveland)
Jermaine Johnson II Florida State · Edge · Senior (RS)
Getting offensive line help with the third overall pick means new coach Lovie Smith can find a pass rusher here. Johnson’s transfer from Georgia to Florida State last summer helped him showcase his power and hustle on the edge.
14 Kansas City Chiefs PROJECTED TRADE WITH BALTIMORE
Jameson Williams Alabama · WR · Junior
The Chiefs package the 29th and 30th overall selections and send them to the Ravens for the right to draft Williams. (They also receive one of Baltimore’s five fourth-rounders in the trade.) The Alabama receiver would likely have been a top-10 pick if healthy and, when back at 100 percent, will be a terror catching passes from Patrick Mahomes.
15 New York Jets (from Miami) PROJECTED TRADE WITH PHILADELPHIA
Drake London USC · WR · Junior
London’s combination of size and agility makes him a bargain at this spot. The Jets would likely take him if they stayed at No. 10, as his tools complement Braxton Berrios and Elijah Moore quite well.
16 NY Giants (from IND through PHI) PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ORLEANS
Derek Stingley Jr. LSU · CB · Junior
With the first of the two mid-first-round picks gained in the Saints trade (sending their fourth-round pick back to New Orleans to equalize value), the Giants land an excellent corner in Stingley — if he’s able to return to his 2019 form. This assumes James Bradberry will be dealt before or during the draft.
17 Los Angeles Chargers
Trevor Penning Northern Iowa · OT · Senior (RS)
The Chargers need to shore up the right side of the offensive line. Even if they think Trey Pipkins or Storm Norton can be the answer at right tackle, Penning’s athleticism and nasty streak could make him a very good right guard (where he played about 100 snaps at Northern Iowa in his career). Or he could play right tackle if given the chance to compete for that role. Another possibility would be picking Zion Johnson and plugging him in at guard.
18 Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)
Kyle Hamilton Notre Dame · S · Junior
The Eagles take advantage of teams’ “positional value” knock on safeties, much like the Chargers did when landing Derwin James at No. 17 overall four years ago. Hamilton’s athleticism is not as impressive as James’, but his intelligence and big range in the back half will make him an excellent addition to Philadelphia’s secondary.
19 New York Giants (from PHI) PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ORLEANS
Charles Cross
Mississippi State · OT · Sophomore (RS)
Draft analysts are split on Cross: Some believe he is a top-10 pick while others think he would be a better value in the lower-third of the round. I think he’ll fall somewhere in the middle. In this scenario, the Giants nab him and install him on the right side of the line to start his career.
20 Minnesota Vikings PROJECTED TRADE WITH PITTSBURGH
Devin Lloyd Utah · LB · Senior (RS)
If the Vikings stayed at No. 12, they’d probably still take Lloyd because he fits a strong need inside as they transition to a 3-4 system. He can do a bit of everything, even though he doesn’t test off the charts athletically.
21 Green Bay Packers PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW ENGLAND
George Karlaftis Purdue · Edge · Junior
There will be many suitors for the Patriots’ pick, and the Packers understand they can’t just sit back at No. 22 and wait for the top players on their board to fall into their laps. Whether they pick a receiver at No. 21 or a strong edge rusher like Karlaftis, moving into this spot prevents others from jumping ahead of them.
22 Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas)
Chris Olave Ohio State · WR · Senior
Trading Davante Adams and failing to re-sign Marquez Valdes-Scantling means there’s a big hole on the Packers’ roster. Olave’s smooth speed fills part of that need, as will any acquired veteran free agents, pass-catchers selected later in this draft and, as I’m sure Green Bay hopes, last year’s third-rounder, Amari Rodgers.
23 Arizona Cardinals
Treylon Burks Arkansas · WR · Junior
Adding Burks to a receiver room that already includes DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore makes the Cardinals much more dangerous over the next couple of seasons.
24 Dallas Cowboys
Zion Johnson Boston College · IOL · Senior
Johnson’s a nice fit as a strong left guard for Dallas, possessing the versatility to play tackle or center in a pinch.
25 Buffalo Bills
Trent McDuffie Washington · CB · Junior
McDuffie is not the tallest (5-foot-10 3/4 at the combine) or longest (29 3/4-inch arms) corner in the draft. In fact, no corner with that lack of length has been drafted in the first round the past 20 years. Teams should upend that trend, though, and pick him in the top 25 because of his strong play in coverage and against the run.
26 Tennessee Titans
Sam Howell North Carolina · QB · Junior
Forget the comparisons to Baker Mayfield and Mitch Trubisky — they’re not representative of Howell’s ability. Tennessee could be the next team to select a quarterback with a veteran already in place (Patrick Mahomes/Alex Smith in Kansas City; Jordan Love/Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay; Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco), as Ryan Tannehill’s up-and-down 2021 performance might very well still be weighing on their minds.
27 New York Jets PROJECTED TRADE WITH TAMPA BAY
Nakobe Dean Georgia · LB · Junior
The Jets’ extra draft capital allows them to move back into the first round to find their defensive leader in Dean. New York gives up second-, fourth- and fifth-round picks in this trade, which the Buccaneers happily accept knowing they can get similar cornerback or edge rusher value with the 35th overall selection.
28 New England Patriots PROJECTED TRADE WITH GREEN BAY
Jalen Pitre Baylor · S · Senior (RS)
The deal with Miami for receiver DeVante Parker makes it even more likely the Pats trade out of their scheduled pick. Bill Belichick will gladly accept a third- and fourth-round pick from Green Bay to move down seven spots. New England could select Daxton Hill at this spot but Belichick might appreciate Pitre’s strength against the run and ability as a blitzer, as well as his movement in coverage.
29 Baltimore Ravens (from SF thru MIA) PROJECTED TRADE WITH KANSAS CITY
Tyler Linderbaum Iowa · C · Junior (RS
Baltimore needs a new center after letting Bradley Bozeman walk, and Linderbaum’s a much better value here than at No. 14. The team hit a home run with Iowa lineman Marshal Yanda years ago, so picking up this Hawkeye seems like a natural fit.
30 Baltimore Ravens PROJECTED TRADE WITH KANSAS CITY
Andrew Booth Clemson · CB · Junior
Booth’s a top-20 talent who is still available because of injuries. The Ravens simply need more bodies at cornerback, so they take a shot on his athleticism and nasty attitude outside.
31 Cincinnati Bengals
Devonte Wyatt Georgia · DT · Senior
Wyatt could go much higher come April 28, but in this scenario, the Bengals would pinch themselves if a stud three-technique was available to take over for free agent Larry Ogunjobi.
32 Detroit Lions (from LA Rams)
Drake Jackson USC · Edge · Senior
Head coach Dan Campbell spoke at the NFL Scouting Combine about the Lions’ defense becoming more multiple in its fronts next year. Jackson can rush the passer and play the run both with his hand down or in a two-point stance, giving him the versatility required for such a scheme change. |