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2022 DRAFT
Among the talented WRs in the draft, Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com thinks that GARRETT WILSON of The Ohio State will be the first one drafted:
The more people I talk to directly involved in selecting players in this draft, the more I lean into Garrett Wilson as the top wide receiver to come off the board. There are varied opinions about this group, with some having more size than speed, or, in general, at least one attribute to ding them a little but. It is deep and it will produce NFL quality, but the order remains up for debate. But I expect Wilson to be the first one to go. “He’s the best of the group, and I think a lot of teams agree with us on that,” one GM said. “There isn’t a Ja’Marr Chase in this group – no one is like that guy, it’s not that clear cut – but Wilson should be the first one selected.”
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Peter King is chock full of draft gossip:
It’s a different year in the draft. It’s too early to say who’s going where, and too early to know who’s trading with whom, because most teams are in the final days of stacking their boards and placing values on players. But there are two things in the NFL’s 87th draft that stand out, from conversations with 12 GMs/coaches/personnel people on Friday and Saturday:
1. This could be the first draft since the NFL began the “Annual College Player Selection Meeting” in 1936 that has no one who touches the ball getting picked in the top 10. No running backs, of course. Quite possibly no wideouts; the Jets, picking 10th, look to be the first place a receiver might go. And with the quarterback picture so lousy and so cloudy, who knows? We all know Carolina, picking sixth, could well take a quarterback. And we know a desperate team for one (Pittsburgh, picking 20th?) could be motivated to move up for one. “But unless Carolina takes one,” one GM said, “I can’t see any team picking one in the top 10.”
2. It’s going to be a bad year for mock drafts. Great line from a top GM Saturday night: “You can take the top 20 most plugged-in guys in your business. Ask them to pick the top 10 guys in this draft. I would bet a lot of money no two guys have the same top 10. When you don’t know who’s going one or two or three at this point of the year, you’ve got a mysterious year.”
Lots of interesting tributaries to this draft, as told to me by those in the draft rooms over the weekend, and we’ll start with the first pick. After Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence were locked in atop the three most recent drafts by now, a very unfamous Georgia Bulldog is a serious contender for number one this year.
The Lead: Draft Chat
I asked my 12 draft-authority panelists: Less than two weeks before the draft, what do you feel good about? What will be true come draft weekend? I said I would use their thoughts but not their names.
This is going to be an odd column—a stream-of-consciousness column. Think of having 12 inside authorities on the draft, with their soundbites and quick opinions, one after the other. At times, I’ll inject some explanation. At times, I’ll just let them riff.
THE FIRST PICK IN THE DRAFT
GM1: “Tough call for Jacksonville, because [Michigan’s] Aidan Hutchinson’s such a safe pick. I look at [Jags GM] Trent Baalke’s history going back to San Francisco. That year he picked Aldon Smith [2011], look who he passed on—J.J. Watt, Cam Jordan. Bigger guys, sturdier guys. Trent picked the guy with tools and traits, Smith. That’s why I think he’ll take Travon Walker. Great kid, and he’s got all the traits except consistent production.”
Walker played some over the center at Georgia, moved out wide to rush, and also dropped in coverage. At 275, he can play all over the line. But it’ll take a leap of faith to pick him first overall. In three seasons, he had 9.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss … total.
GM2: “I wouldn’t draft Walker thinking you’re getting Von Miller. He’s not a classic edge. He’s more an all-around guy who plays the run well too. He’s a great example of this draft—not a no-doubt prospect, but intriguing.”
Coach1: “I bet Jacksonville takes Walker. But I don’t know how great they’ll feel taking a projection one overall.”
GM3: “I like Walker, but I’m not a big fan of guys who rise after the season the way he has. In December, he wasn’t even on the radar for the first round.”
Let’s see. I checked four December “mock drafts,” though I don’t know how you have a mock draft when you don’t know where teams will be drafting. One had Walker 25th, one had him 32nd, one didn’t have him as a first-round pick, and the NFL.com multi-round mock had him 45th.
This sort of reminds me of something Bill Parcells said in his last year running a draft—in Miami in 2010. The previous year, they’d taken an option quarterback, Pat White, 44th overall. White was a pre-draft fast riser, in part because teams valued him as a potential Wildcat quarterback. White failed, and Parcells said that’s the last time they were going to be seduced by a rising star after the season was over. In 2010, the Dolphins set their draft board before going to the combine, and changed it only because of injury or character concerns dug up after the season—not because of a great combine performance.
One analyst who’s been fairly consistent on Walker is Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network. Jeremiah has put out three top 50 rankings since the end of the college football season and has had Walker climbing, though conservatively, not like he was shot out of a cannon. Jeremiah has rated Walker 15, 10 and six.
GM3: “Walker’s a one-year starter who had six and a half sacks, with a lot of talent around him on a great Georgia defense. Again, I like him—but I prefer to base the grade on how he played football.”
ON CAROLINA WITH THE SIXTH OVERALL PICK
GM4: “[GM] Scott Fitterer is well-respected, and I feel bad for him. I’d hate to need a quarterback this year, with an owner all over you to find one, and have to draft one with this group. No one feels great about any of these guys. [Pitt’s Kenny] Pickett is probably the best one, and he’s a maybe.”
GM5: “There’s not a generational talent in this draft, and there’s certainly not one at quarterback. You get in trouble reaching for a quarterback. Somebody’s gonna reach for one because of need, maybe more than one, and then you put more pressure on the guy you pick because your fans expect a first-round quarterback to play.”
GM6: “I could actually see a scenario where if Carolina is focused on one guy at quarterback, they might have to move up a spot or two to make sure they get their guy. I say that because you look at the teams in the middle of the round. New Orleans might want to move up, and with two ones now [at 16 and 19], they’ve got the ammo to move up. Pittsburgh [at 20] has had all their people at all these quarterback workouts—Mike Tomlin, [GM] Kevin Colbert, scouts. I’ll be really surprised if they don’t take one, and if they’re fixed on one guy, they won’t be shy about moving up to get one. This is Colbert’s last year [as GM], and I’m sure he wants to leave the team with options at quarterback.”
Note about quarterbacks picked in the top six recently, and Carolina picking sixth overall: In the last 10 drafts, 18 quarterbacks have been picked in the top six. It’s too early to know about the three from 2021—Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance. Of the other 15 passers picked in the top six since 2012, two and maybe three appear to be long-term answers for their teams: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and maybe Kyler Murray. Tua Tagovailoa might be one. But the others—Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones—are either long gone from the teams that drafted them or a long shot to be a 10-year starter there.
That’s a daunting thing, to pick a quarterback who’s not a sure thing with all the pressure to make it that has eaten alive some of the previous high picks.
COVID MADE THIS DRAFT DEEPER
GM6: “When so many college players had shortened seasons, or no seasons [in 2020], a lot of them chose to stay and play a regular year last year. That’s why the draft’s deeper this year. Not just at the top, but all the way through.”
GM7: “This is the year to have a bunch of day two and day three picks. And I think the pool of undrafted free agents will be better than usual.”
GM8: “One of our analytics guys was talking about how Covid made this draft richer. Look at all the picks Baltimore has in the third and fourth rounds. [The Ravens have seven in the third and fourth combined.] Those picks are absolute gold. They are going to have a great draft. Five years from now, that will be the story to look back on.”
GM9: “I’m extremely bullish on the third and fourth rounds, into the fifth.”
Coach 1: “This draft, in terms of high-quality players, kind of drops off the cliff after about 10 picks. But the depth of make-it players who will contribute is very good.”
CORNERS ARE THIN
GM7: “I’m happy we don’t have a big corner need in this draft. I like Sauce Gardner, but I worry about his tackling and his physicality. [Derek] Stingley is probably going in the top 10, and he hasn’t played well since 2019. How are you not worried about that? There’s not a great, clean corner in this draft, and after the top two, I’ve got questions on them all.”
Stingley, one evaluator told me recently, has “the best feet of any corner I’ve ever seen.”
GM3: “LSU went in the tank the last couple of years. Sometimes you see on sinking teams that players kind of give up too and save themselves for the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what happened with Stingley. I think he’s going to be really good in our league.”
KAYVON THIBODEAUX
GM10: “He is a me guy, but we don’t have a problem with him. His selfishness is overrated. Character-wise, he doesn’t have a lot of negatives—he wants to be a great player and I think he has all the tools to be a good NFL pass-rusher.”
POTENTIAL TRADES
Club executive 1: “Teams have gotten really aggressive with trades. I’m starting to hear teams offering to package picks and players to move up—not just picks. So instead of trying to trade up five spots in the first round, maybe this year you’ll see a team offering a one, a three and a player they’re down on a little.”
GM5: “If any team in the top six or eight wants to trade down, they won’t get what the trade chart says they should get. You don’t hear much trade talk till a day or two before the draft anyway—except for teams alerting you to keep them in mind if you’re thinking of moving your pick—but this isn’t the year to get rich on your high picks.”
GM4: “I laugh when I read around this time that the trade market is heating up. Most of the time, nothing really substantial happens till the day before the draft, or day of. There will be trades, but I don’t see many until after 10 [the 10th overall pick].”
A DRAFT LIKE NO OTHER?
At the top of this column, I wrote how this could be the first draft without a quarterback, running back or wide receiver in the top 10 picks. The NFL has been conducting a player draft since 1936, and in every draft at least one skill player has gone in the top 10.
It was close in 1985 and 1991. There was one skill guy drafted in the top 10 in those two years, both at number 10 overall: wide receiver Al Toon by the Jets in ’85, wide receiver Herman Moore by the Lions in ’91. Twice since then—in 1997 (wideout Ike Hilliard, seventh overall) and 2013 (wideout Tavon Austin, eighth overall)—has there been one skill guy picked in the top 10.
GM6: “I could see seven tackles and edge players going in the top 10. Maybe there’s a fourth tackle, the Penning kid. [Northern Iowa tackle Trevor Penning has gotten hot in the pre-draft buildup.] Then the two corners. It’s strange, with the league so slanted to the wide receiver and quarterback, to think it’s possible none get picked high. I could see it, though—every one of the quarterbacks has question marks, and there are so many good receivers that teams think they can wait to take one.”
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Albert Breer of SI.com offers his thoughts on the first 12 picks of the draft with the most notable news being a report that the Lions are not in the market for the EDGE rusher with all five vowels in his last name:
It’s April 14, and I haven’t done a mock draft yet!
No, that’s not that unusual for me. Sometimes I do early ones; sometimes I don’t. And this year, the news on veteran players has kept coming, week after week, which left the window for me to really drill down on the draft much smaller.
But we’re here now, and ready to pass on some of the info floating around out there in NFL circles in this week’s GamePlan. So here’s what we’ll do: I’m going to take you through the top 12 picks (so a third of the first round), and I’ll treat this as a sort of working mock (with plans for another like this for all 32 teams on the week of the draft) to let you know what I’m hearing on what certain teams might be thinking.
And as a note, before we get started, one thing that’s obvious is that this year’s class is shaping up a little like 2013’s did. That year, you had decidedly unsexy positions populating the top of the draft board. You had a universally-panned (at least in these circles) class of quarterbacks. Yet, that year, again like this year, there was some depth, which allowed for good teams to dig good players out later.
So it’s on the scouts and coaches now to find the Kyle Long, DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Frederick, Zach Ertz, Darius Slay or Kawann Short (all of whom were taken between the 20th and 45th picks in 2013) of this year’s class. Or land the Travis Kelce, Terron Armstead, Tyann Mathieu, Keenan Allen or David Bakhtiari even later in the weekend.
In that way, if you want to bright-side the whole thing, this really is an evaluator’s draft. Everyone has holes, and teams have to decide which ones they can plug with players, or work around, to get the most out of them.
And with that, let’s dive in the top dozen …
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: This take from an AFC college scouting director sums up where Jags GM Trent Baalke is right now: “Everyone knows he wants to trade it, and that tells me he’s not in love with any of them.” Multiple rival executives raised to me that Baalke is also sensitive to a perception problem he and his team have right now, and that he, and the team, will get roasted if they do anything other than take Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or get a king’s ransom for the pick.
Also, other teams have raised the amount of work Jacksonville’s done on the top offensive linemen as evidence that the Jags may not be as set as some think they are up front, even after tagging Cam Robinson and signing Brandon Scherff. If they take a lineman? N.C. State’s Ickey Ekwonu has been connected to Baalke through the process.
If it’s an edge rusher, and it’s between Hutchinson and Georgia’s freakish draft riser, Travon Walker, that’s interesting too. “It’s the home run vs. the double,” said another exec. “No one’s missing on Hutch. With Walker, is he an outside linebacker? Is he a five-technique? His ceiling’s high, if you look at his movement, his get-off, his play speed. He’s not as polished as Hutch. There might be more there, but you haven’t seen it, so it’s hit or miss.”
Ultimately, my early bet is that Baalke will settle on the safer play, and get the sort of leader for his defense that Trevor Lawrence should become for the offense.
Best early guess: Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson
2. Detroit Lions: A lot of people are convinced they will go edge rusher here regardless. And I’d agree that if Hutchinson is there, this will become academic for them. If he’s not? Well, I can tell you that no one I’ve talked to at this point believes that Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux is in any way a culture fit for Detroit coach Dan Campbell. “His personality is a lot,” said one exec, “and you hear the head coach there isn’t a fan.”
(The DB interrupts for this tweet on Thibodeaux:
@RossTuckerPod
“Thibodeaux in many ways reminded me of a 20lbs less Jadeveon Clowney, who is on his 5th team by the time he is 28 years old.” @GregCosell talking about one of the most polarizing players in this draft on the @RossTuckerPod
Now back to Breer)
Walker, on the other hand, would make sense, if the Lions are confident they can develop him into more than he was on his college tape. The biggest issue there, really, is most of his splash plays in college were made in open-field situations, where he’s simply chasing someone down, rather than doing what you’d hope he would as a pro, which is rushing the passer off the edge.
One position that was put on my radar for the Lions at No. 2 on Thursday is defensive back. That may seem a little early for Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner, LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. or, for that matter, Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton (whom I’ve heard they like), given how Hamilton ran at the combine. It’d also be a head-turner, since the Lions took a corner with the third pick two years ago. But looking at the makeup of the class overall, this might just be the year where, if you’re picking this high, you just take the guy you like best. That said …
Best early guess: Georgia DE/OLB Travon Walker
3. Houston Texans: The Texans clearly are planning on a deliberate build, after dealing off Deshaun Watson, and the middle-of-the-fairway pick here for them would be Alabama’s Evan Neal—who may be a better right tackle than left, and could form a strong tandem with Laremy Tunsil and, eventually, replace him on the left side.
The one caveat here would be that teams did take note of what Lovie Smith said the other day, on needing better corners to play defense the way the Texans want to. I’m filing that one away, for that reason.
Best early guess: Alabama OT Evan Neal
4. New York Jets: Edge rusher is a need. Corner is too, and we saw GM Joe Douglas take a swing at getting Zach Wilson a weapon in the Jets’ bid for Tyreek Hill. But there’s still a feeling he’ll take an offensive lineman in the first round for the third time in as many years as GM with one of his two first-round picks. And Ekwonu, a real mauler, is the one I’ve heard the Jets connected to most.
The logic on Ekwonu, tied to his positional flexibility, makes sense. There’s real concern on 2020 first-rounder Mekhi Becton, and whether he’ll be the long-term answer at left tackle. Taking Ekwonu would give the Jets an insurance policy in case Becton washes out. And if Becton can grow up a little and start to fulfill his immense potential? Well, then the Jets could kick Ekwonu into guard, a position many teams feel is his most natural NFL spot, and a place where some feel like he has all-pro potential.
And sure, this is high for a guard. But sixth was, too, and we’ve seen what’s become of Quenton Nelson in Indianapolis.
Best early guess: N.C. State OL Ikem Ekwonu
5. New York Giants: One thing I feel comfortable saying is that new GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll aren’t going to press a need here. And when I tell you I’ve heard them connected to Mississippi State tackle Charles Cross, you might think that’d be a reach at No. 5. I’m here to tell you it wouldn’t be.
One executive told me this week that he believes Cross is the best player in the draft, regardless of position. Another wouldn’t go quite that far, but could see how one of his peers reached that conclusion: “You could argue he’s the best player, no doubt. He starts to bore you, it’s so easy for him. … The way he redirects, the way he plants his outside foot and explodes, no one beats him with speed, no one crosses his face and beats him, he just doesn’t lose much.”
Now, he is a bit of a projection, because he’s coming from a Mike Leach offense. But where there are positional questions with Neal and Ekwonu, there isn’t one with Cross. He’s a left tackle from Day 1 in the NFL.
Best early guess: Mississippi State OT Charles Cross
6. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are having tackles in now, and in the coming days, after having six quarterbacks in over a three-day period (Monday to Wednesday). And I wouldn’t rule out the idea that they’d take a tackle, and maybe swing a trade for Jimmy Garoppolo after the draft, since the need for a tackle here is pretty significant.
But in the end, other teams are convinced they’ll swallow hard and take a quarterback. I personally believe that they’d probably most like to trade down, and maybe fill in the hole they have between this pick and the 137th (a product of the Sam Darnold and C.J. Henderson trades). It’s just hard, at this point, to see what another team would be coming up to get. (A tackle? A pass-rusher?)
The interesting thing is the one name they’ve been linked to most publicly, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, is one I haven’t heard quite as much for them of late. Yes, I understand there was the public show at his pro day, that Matt Rhule recruited him out of high school and that, with jobs on the line this year, it might make sense to get the most pro-ready guy.
Despite all that, I’ve heard Liberty’s Malik Willis and Ole Miss’s Matt Corral, and even Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, tied to the Panthers more in recent days. Now, it’d take some creativity scheme-wise on new OC Ben McAdoo’s part to have Willis and Corral ready to go as rookies; and Ridder would be a reach that high. Which, I think, illustrates again why a trade down would be ideal.
Best early guess: Liberty QB Malik Willis
7. New York Giants: We’re back to the Giants, and this is where I’ll tell you that I believe both New York teams will look to move one of their top-10 picks out to next year’s draft. The thing is, as I just said, I’m not sure what someone would be coming up for at this stage of the game. Maybe it’d be Thibodeaux. Maybe it’d be Sauce Gardner. Both have good potential. Both play premium positions. Or maybe someone will want a quarterback.
If the Giants stick, again, I don’t think they’ll overdo it to fill a need. And I’d guess the idea of getting a potential cornerstone at a premium position would appeal to them.
Best early guess: Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
8. Atlanta Falcons: There’s conflicting info here. Some are convinced they are taking a quarterback. Others are convinced they aren’t. They’ve certainly done their homework on the class. And the one quarterback I’ve heard them connected to, Corral, is one I’m not completely sure would be a fit for coach Arthur Smith.
And here’s the thing on Smith and GM Terry Fontenot: Both are logical and methodical, and I do not think they’re going to reach if they don’t believe the quarterback available is worthy of the draft slot (and most teams don’t believe there’s one this year truly worthy of going this high). So, at this point, I’m going to give them a player who is worthy of the pick, and is another solid building block for Smith and Fontenot’s brick-by-brick plan.
Best early guess: Florida State DE Jermaine Johnson
9. Seattle Seahawks: The first pick form the Russell Wilson haul should be a pivotal one for the Seahawks. Sitting there, as we have it, would be an ideal fit at corner, in Gardner. But Seattle’s history under John Schneider and Pete Carroll has always been to find and/or manufacture corners in nontraditional ways. And with Duane Brown still unsigned, there’s a real need at left tackle here.
Remember, Schneider’s never been afraid to do something that’s a little different, or value certain players he deems as Seattle types differently, and that’s where I’ll introduce you to Northern Iowa’s tough, mean tackle, Trevor Penning, who might need work to play left tackle in the pros, but brings a boatload of edge to the field.
And I’m telling you, because of all that, I really did want to put Penning here. I just couldn’t leave Gardner out there any longer, especially with the fit screaming at me.
Best early guess: Cincinnati CB Sauce Gardner
10. New York Jets: You can cut and paste what I said about the Giants. I think Douglas will try to make a trade with one of his two picks, to pick up capital and maybe position himself for 2023 as well.
If they stick here, I could see the Jets catching a falling Gardner or Thibodeaux, or maybe even Stingley. Absent that, I think this a spot where help could come for Zach Wilson, if all the receivers are sitting there for the Jets. In this scenario, they are, and this is the range where both USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson are pegged to be in play (and maybe Alabama’s Jameson Williams, too, based on teams’ comfort level with his ACL).
I’ll take the guy, then, who I believe best complements their current foundation of Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios at the position, and get Mike LaFleur his prototype “X.”
Best early guess: USC WR Drake London
11. Washington Commanders: Martin Mayhew, Marty Hurney and Ron Rivera have turned over a lot of rocks on this year’s receiver group, and taking one would fulfill the promise that they were going to create an optimal situation for whoever would play quarterback for them in 2022 (in this case, Carson Wentz).
Could they go in a different direction? They absolutely could. There are needs in the secondary, and as we’ve set things up here, the idea of Stingley or Hamilton would be in play. I don’t think they’ll go quarterback—they haven’t had any of the draft’s top passers to Virginia, and my sense is that’s more reflective of where they stand on the class than any kind of smokescreen—but I’ve seen stranger things.
So let’s stick with getting Wentz a weapon, and one who’s a really strong program fit.
Best early guess: Ohio State WR Chris Olave
12. Minnesota Vikings: This is another one where there are new guys, in GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell, in charge, and a lot of tea leaf reading on where they’ll go with their first pick. So it’s worth looking at the actions of the two teams that they’re coming from in trying to figure where the Vikings will go next.
One thing that was pointed out to me: Both the Browns (Adofo-Mensah) and Rams (O’Connell) have a history of using their highest-end capital (cash, cap and draft picks) on premium positions. You see it in Cleveland with Watson, Myles Garrett, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Denzel Ward; and, of course, in L.A. with Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Cooper Kupp. So …
Best early guess: LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr.
And, of course, these are still just off of my early calls—there are a lot more to come. As such, we’ll have a lot more to come over the next two weeks as well.
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