NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

A couple of weeks ago we heard that Arthur Blank, ever loyal, had sided with Coach Arthur Smith and wanted to keep QB MATT RYAN.

Now, Peter King hears that Blank is fascinated by the shiny toy that quarterback #4 would provide.

4. ATLANTA. Pivot point of the draft. Falcons are doing a great job of disguising their intentions and, per Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, will have three reps at the Lance workout today.

What I’m hearing: Owner Arthur Blank is fascinated by the quarterbacks atop the draft, thinking the franchise might not be in such an advantageous position to take one for years. But Blank will not force a decision—of that I am sure. He hired GM Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith and won’t big-foot them on their first big call. Smith likes the quarterbacks too, but also like Matt Ryan, who will play at 36 this fall and likely has four or five solid years left. Fontenot may—and I emphasized may, because I’ve heard varying things here—prefer to trade out of the pick for a ransom, if one is there. But Smith and Fontenot are also value shoppers too. The value here is to take the best non-quarterback in the draft, tight end Kyle Pitts.

CAROLINA

Peter King on the choices ahead for the Panthers:

8. CAROLINA. The Panthers are in an intriguing spot. Smart money says one of the five quarterbacks will still be on the board at eight, so new Panthers GM Scott Fitterer could be in the luxurious position of having three options: Picking the quarterback and giving him a comfy redshirt year behind Sam Darnold, or trading to a team desperate for, say, Justin Fields here, or taking a very solid player to continue the Carolina rebuild.

One thing I do know (and not just because Matt Rhule just spent a learning day with Jimmy Johnson, who always had a trove of picks to work with) is Carolina wants to come out of this draft with more picks than the seven it currently holds. The average team has 8.1 picks in an NFL draft, including Compensatory Picks. Over the last eight drafts, Carolina has averaged 6.3 picks per year. Knowing Rhule and Fitterer, that’s got to burn them. Particularly after trading three picks for Darnold, look for them to work to gain more April 29-May 1.

TAMPA BAY

Jenna Laine of ESPN.com tracked down QB TOM BRADY who said things are going well with his recovery from knee surgery:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady said Sunday that his knee is recovering well from offseason surgery and that he’s hopeful he’ll be able to resume his typical training and participate in a mandatory June minicamp, if there is one.

“Yeah, I hope so. I hope so. I feel pretty good and I push myself pretty hard,” Brady said at coach Bruce Arians’ Family Foundation gala. “I feel pretty good. I don’t know if I could go this week, but, we’ll see how things play out. It’s a long time between now and the beginning of the season, and just be smart about all these different things that we have to do and fulfill but we all take a lot of pride in being ready to go and I’m sure we will be.”

“It’s good, it’s good. It’s good progress. It’s rehab. None of that is fun but looking forward to getting back to real training and stuff, which is hopefully here pretty soon. … I’m cool with it. It’s just part of what you deal with. Things come up. You deal with them the best way you can, with the best opportunity to improve. I’m definitely feeling a lot better than I did six or seven weeks ago.”

A source told ESPN that Brady had been planning the knee operation for several months, so it wasn’t a surprise. The Bucs are also one of several NFL teams electing not to participate in in-person OTAs due to the pandemic.

When asked if he would still hold informal workouts this year, even if he can’t participate fully, Brady said, “Yeah. We’ll just take it and see how we go and see how things play out over the course of the offseason. A lot of things come up and change over the course of the offseason and we’ve got a lot of hard-working guys so guys will be anxious to get together and get to work.

“As soon as I’m ready to throw, that will be really important for me. That’s always a big part of my preparation — actually doing what my job is.”

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

Peter King speculates:

3. SAN FRANCISCO. Today’s the last day of substance in fact-finding for the Niners, with GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan expected in Fargo at North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance’s second workout. The leader in the clubhouse is still Alabama’s Mac Jones, but that’s all Jones is. Credit to Lynch and Shanahan for keeping a tight lid on their preference. I keep coming back to Jones’ accuracy (his 77.4-percent season in 2020 is the most accurate in major-college history) and his touch downfield, with the best accuracy of the top five quarterbacks on passes thrown 20 yards or more downfield.

I think Shanahan will value accuracy and presence over athleticism and prefer Jones, but that’s not inside info—just my gut feeling.

As the 49ers ponder Alabama QB MAC JONES, Seth Walder of ESPN.com uses new-fangled techniques to decide whether Jones is as great as his conventional statistics say:

There’s a chasm between Mac Jones’ stellar college numbers and the lukewarm forecast that qualitative evaluators give for his future in the NFL. And it forces a question that quarterback-needy teams have to answer: Which will best predict his pro career?

Statistically, Jones is one of the greatest college quarterbacks of his generation. At Alabama in 2020, he recorded the single-highest QBR season in the metric’s history, dating back to 2004. He sits atop a leaderboard of best seasons littered with top draft picks and elite NFL QBs; Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck trail Jones. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, the consensus top-ranked quarterback in the 2021 NFL draft, never finished above fifth in QBR in a single season. Again, Jones’ 2020 ranked No. 1 among all seasons.

Jones is considered by many evaluators — including Todd McShay and ESPN’s Scouts Inc. — to be the fifth-best signal-caller in this class, after Lawrence, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, BYU’s Zach Wilson and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Though Mel Kiper Jr. predicted in his latest mock draft that the 49ers would select Jones with the No. 3 overall pick, he wrote that “I’m not sure I see a superstar when I watch him on tape. He’s solid — and extremely accurate — but not spectacular.”

Jones was not considered a candidate to be selected in the top three until the 49ers traded up nine spots. Suddenly Jones, who many believe would thrive most in Kyle Shanahan’s system, became the favorite to land in San Francisco. But whether he is best off with the 49ers and whether the 49ers are best off with him are not the same question. And while expectations for his draft slot have shifted in recent weeks, the vexing disparity between his statistics and the consensus scouting evaluation remains.

There have been several criticisms levied against Jones, including that he’s the least athletic of the first-round quarterbacks and less of a running threat than his peers, that he doesn’t have high-end arm strength, and that he played with elite talent around him that would elevate any quarterback. Is it possible evaluators are underrating Jones? Let’s separate fact from fiction and put numbers to those criticisms:

Mobility

Jones did use his legs substantially less than any of the other top four quarterbacks. He rushed — either by design or on a scramble — on 8% of his career action plays, well below Lawrence (16%), Wilson (19%), Fields (27%) and Lance (34%). And if we focus on scrambles, those made up 3.5% of his career dropbacks, which again was behind Fields (11%), Lance (6%) and Wilson (6%) but was on par with Lawrence. He did scramble less frequently in 2020, however.

Those rates are below average for rushing and average for scrambling for quarterbacks drafted in the previous 10 years, but they’re not totally unheard of. They are similar to what Jared Goff and Gardner Minshew posted in college. Jones’ career scramble rate is higher than those of Josh Rosen, Drew Lock and even Ryan Tannehill, who went on to be a productive runner in the NFL (Tannehill did have a higher designed-run rate, though).

Also, not all mobility involves crossing the line of scrimmage. Jones was sacked on just 3% of his dropbacks last season and only 13% of pressures against him were converted into sacks. Both of those numbers were lower than any recorded by Lawrence, Fields or Wilson, though each was only barely better than Wilson’s rates. It could be a sign of Jones’ ability to move in the pocket, his offensive line’s quality or his ability to get the ball out quickly. No matter what, if Jones is avoiding sacks — even when under pressure — that is a good sign for his NFL prospects.

Overall, the numbers suggest Jones’ running (or lack thereof) wouldn’t make him an outlier, but it’s unlikely to be an asset the way it will be for other quarterbacks in this class. He can succeed without being a threat to run — there are plenty of examples of that in the current NFL (including Matt Ryan, whom Kyle Shanahan has had success coaching), but it just means that he’ll have to make up for that relative weakness with strengths elsewhere.

Quality of teammates and situation

I’m not sure just anyone could put up the numbers Jones did in 2020 — even his former teammate Tua Tagovailoa, who went No. 5 overall last year despite injury concerns, didn’t record quite the same production Jones did in a similar offense. The point certainly has some merit: Jones played with a Heisman Trophy-winning receiver, another receiver who will go early in the first round and a stellar offensive line.

And while QBR adjusts for opponents, it does not adjust for teammates. So Jones is getting credit for playing against the SEC, but is not being debited for his offensive line or receivers.

However, Real Plus-Minus — which incorporates adjusted on/off metrics and advanced box score stats — does account for both the quality of opponent and teammates on every play. Jones’ 2020 season ranked No. 1 in RPM last season and trailed only Burrow’s 2019 for the highest RPM season in the metric’s three-year history. While the quarterback of an offense as successful as Alabama’s is always going to look good in any metric, Jones’ RPM was elite despite the fact that he was playing with the metric’s No. 1-ranked wide receiver in DeVonta Smith and its No. 1-ranked offensive line. In other words, even accounting for the exceptional talent around him, Jones significantly elevated the offense.

Situationally, Jones was the beneficiary of play-action, which he used on a massive 52% of his dropbacks, which was more than any of the other top FBS quarterbacks in this class — the FBS average for qualifying QBs was 32% — presumably because his team was so often winning and/or a threat to run. Play-action is well-documented as an advantage for the offense, and that might have inflated his statistics though he was also ranked second in QBR without play-action.

Making sense of the qualitative and quantitative

No matter how deep you dig, there are significant elements of quarterback evaluation that cannot be captured through current college statistics. The qualitative is necessary.

How do we reconcile the differences between the scouting and production? By marrying them. In our newest projection model of college quarterbacks we put Scouts Inc. grades and age — along with several statistical measures including a player’s best QBR, most recent QBR, and production split out between running and passing — into the model, therefore weighting each component by its predictive ability (and interaction with the other variables). It’s the stats and the scouting, blended together.

The result? Our model projects Jones as a tier below Lawrence, Fields and Wilson, who all have either a 63% or 64% chance of outperforming Jones in expected points added per play in 2021. The projections put Jones neck-and-neck with Lance, with Jones slightly ahead of Lance in Year 1 but with a slight preference for Lance by Year 4, a shift due to the fact that Jones is nearly two years older. (Surprisingly, the model narrowly prefers Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond, who is projected to be a second- or third-round pick, to both.)

In other words, of the five quarterbacks likely to go in the first round, the model considers Jones the fourth best in the short term and fifth best in the long term, though the percentages express the significant uncertainty surrounding the projection of quarterbacks from college to the pros.

There are three main reasons for the relatively tepid forecast for Jones:

His Scouts Inc. grade of 90 trails the other top four quarterbacks in the class. Even with the knowledge of his college statistics, the qualitative carries significant weight.

His incredible collegiate play mostly came in one season (with a few strong games in 2019, too). What we’ve found is that multiple seasons of excellent play — like Lawrence finishing in the top 10 in QBR but never to Jones’ level in 2020 — is a better predictor of success at the next level than a single elite season like Jones had.

His age. Jones is the oldest among the top five quarterbacks — the 22-year-old is about six months older than Fields, roughly a year older than Lawrence and Wilson and almost two years older than Lance — and that does matter. It’s not everything — Burrow, for example, was 23 when he was drafted — but all four of the other major quarterbacks in this class achieved their accomplishments at a younger age.

Altogether, the model paints a more modest picture of Jones compared to Lawrence, Wilson or Fields, the last of whom will likely be available for the 49ers at No. 3.

QBR was a big fan of Jones in 2019 and 2020, and there’s still a great chance he’s able to have a strong career in the NFL. It’s just less of a chance than for the other high-end QBs in the 2021 class.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Unfortunately for the guy with the swollen eye and his aggressive lawyers, there was video of the altercation in the Boom Boom Room.  And it lets DT AARON DONALD off the hook for despicable violence.  KDKA-TV:

Surveillance video obtained by KDKA showed the fight that happened at the Boom Boom Room last Sunday morning. It shows Spriggs at the bottom of a pile being kicked and punched by a group of men.

In the video, Aaron Donald is off to the side, shown a few seconds later coming over to the fight and can be seen pulling people away from Spriggs.

Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald was accused of assaulting DeVincent Spriggs this week, but Donald’s lawyer said on Friday that his client hasn’t done anything wrong.

Lawyer Casey White said on 93.7 The Fan that Donald was at a party last Saturday and that Spriggs was escorted out after coming at Donald after allegedly jabbing the All-Pro in the back. White went on to say that Donald and his brother encountered Spriggs again outside the party and that Spriggs swung a bottle at Donald’s head.

White said video and witnesses confirm this as well as the fact that others then “tuned up” Spriggs before Donald intervened as part of an effort to break things up.

“He actually saved Mr. Spriggs from further injury,” White said, via Brian Batko of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “It’s fantastic, from a defense attorney’s perspective, to be honest with you.”

During his appearance, White read what he said was an email from the Pittsburgh Police Department corroborating that video evidence shows no sign of Donald assaulting Spriggs. If that’s the case, there shouldn’t be much chance of a criminal case against the Rams star moving forward.

Spriggs has apologized:

DeVincent Spriggs is now looking to apologize to the NFL star.

His attorney says his client mistook someone else for Donald during last weekend’s fight on Pittsburgh’s South Side.

Watch as KDKA investigator Andy Sheehan reports:

“I wanted to make this statement public. And to extend an apology to Aaron for what he’s gone through, but I clearly know this was not him,” said Attorney Todd Hollis.

AFC WEST

DENVER

QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER to Denver?  This from Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com:

Would be very surprised if Teddy Bridgewater is not in Denver by draft weekend. Continue to hear buzz about it and I know the Broncos are quite interested. It fits Fangio’s model perfectly and the new GM was a part of the Vikings brass that drafted Teddy B.

And this from Peter King:

9. DENVER. Maybe one of those future picks for Carolina could come from Denver. Connecting dots here: What if new GM and Vikings transplant George Paton (in the room when Teddy Bridgewater was Minnesota’s first-round pick in 2014) passes on a quarterback in, say, the first three rounds and Bridgewater needs a home? Maybe Paton wouldn’t mind putting some veteran heat on Drew Lock. This was not my idea, but I think it makes a lot of sense, particularly if Carolina softens the cap blow by helping with the cash owed Bridgewater.

KANSAS CITY

Fred Arbanas came to Kansas City as a tight end, and stayed to become a Democrat Party kingpin.  He has passed away at age 82.

Former Kansas City Chiefs tight end Fred Arbanas, a key member of their first two Super Bowl teams in the 1960s and ’70s who later had a long career in county politics, has died. He was 82.

The Jackson County Democratic Party in Missouri, for which Arbanas was a major player for more than four decades, announced his death in a brief statement Saturday. No cause was given.

Arbanas, a member of the Chiefs’ Hall of Fame, was a six-time all-AFL selection and was picked to the All-Time AFL Team by the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He was a member of the Dallas Texans team that won the 1962 AFL title and, after the club moved to Kansas City, helped the rechristened Chiefs reach the Super Bowl in 1967 and 1970.

“My family and I are saddened by the passing of Fred Arbanas,” Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt said in a statement Sunday. “Known for his tenacity and courage on the field, Fred was a key contributor to the early success of the franchise in both Dallas and Kansas City. He was a dynamic threat at the tight end position, and he helped the Chiefs finish as the winningest franchise in the 10-year history of the American Football League. When his playing days were over, Fred dedicated the second phase of his career to public service and made a lasting impact on Jackson County. Our heartfelt condolences are with the Arbanas family during this time.”

After his playing career, Arbanas served more than 40 years in the Jackson County legislature. He was so influential in working with the local parks system that a golf course was renamed in his honor in 1999.

This was also notable about Arbanas:

The most amazing thing about Arbanas as a football player is that he played the bulk of his career, and did well, with just one eye. In today’s special section, reporter Blair Kerkhoff says Arbanas “lost sight in one eye in an accident.” Well, it was hardly an accident. Arbanas told me the story…He was outside a bar on the southeast corner of Armour and Troost — the bar was called either King Arthur’s Round Table or Knights Round Table — when a guy approached him and said, “Are you Fred Arbanas?” Arbanas said, “Yes,” and extended his hand to shake the man’s hand. Instead of returning the gesture in kind, the man took a big swing at Arbanas and struck him in the eye. It was a sucker punch that cost Arbanas the sight of one eye.

AFC NORTH

CINCINNATI

Peter King has heard that talk that the Bengals won’t draft a tackle after all:

5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).

But at the same time, earlier in his column King had this:

“This (draft) one ranks first, in terms of how unusual it is,” (gil) Brandt said Saturday. “The opt-outs kind of remind me when we used to draft guys, then lose them for a year or two in the military. Very seldom did they come back the players they were. The same principal is involved here.”

Never has there been a draft when the top three offensive linemen, all likely to be picked in the top 20, come in after a year off from football.

More:

“If I could pick one player in this draft who’s got the best chance to go to the Hall of Fame, it’s Penei Sewell,” one coach told me. “He’s my left tackle from day one.”

• Asked another coach about Gil Brandt’s most-unusual-draft-ever statement, and this coach said: “I agree wholeheartedly. And I agree about how worried he is about the opt-outs. This year’s unprecedented. I’m worried about all the things we don’t know. We don’t really know the prospects, personally or medically, the way we should.”

PITTSBURGH

The Steelers are definitely in the market for a running back, perhaps as soon as the first round of the draft.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

NFL teams have increasingly found that drafting a running back is a risky proposition, with highly drafted runners often proving to be no better than the backs available late in the draft or as undrafted free agents. But the Steelers apparently think they need to address the position early in this year’s draft.

Pittsburgh expects to add a feature draft most likely in the first round and no later than the second round, according to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

The Steelers allowed last year’s leading rusher, James Conner, to leave in free agency. They’ve spent fourth-round picks on running backs, Anthony McFarland and Benny Snell, each of the last two years, and they signed Kalen Ballage in free agency. But they apparently want more.

Clemson’s Travis Etienne and Alabama’s Najee Harris are generally considered the best running backs in this year’s draft.

The report says the Steelers are serious about improving their running game and may also draft a run blocking offensive lineman early.

AFC SOUTH

JACKSONVILLE

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE said some reasonable things, but they rubbed some on football Twitter the wrong way.  Michael Rosenberg of SI.com:

“I want to do it because I want to be the best I can be. I want to maximize my potential. Who wouldn’t want to? You kind of waste it if you don’t.”

Lawrence is only 21. He finished Cartersville (Ga.) High three years ago and still peppers his sentences with like. But he lacks that youthful desire to conquer the world.

“It’s hard to explain that because I want people to know that I’m passionate about what I do and it’s really important to me, but . . . I don’t have this huge chip on my shoulder, that everyone’s out to get me and I’m trying to prove everybody wrong,” he says. “I just don’t have that. I can’t manufacture that. I don’t want to.” Marissa adds, “There’s also more in life than playing football.”

“Yeah,” Trevor says. “And I think people mistake that for being a competitor. . . . I think that’s unhealthy to a certain extent, just always thinking that you’ve got to prove somebody wrong, you’ve got to do more, you’ve got to be better.”

Marissa: “That usually only leads to sadness as well—always, like, striving for something new or better.”

Trevor has always been like this. Everybody in the family says that off the football field, Marissa, who played soccer at Division II Anderson University, is more competitive than he is. His father says, “He’s not award-driven. He’s not, ‘I want to win a Super Bowl at all costs.’ ” Trevor’s coach at Cartersville High, Joey King, says, “There is no doubt about it: With who he is as a person, he could walk away from it tomorrow and be fine.” Others who know Lawrence well agree. This would make for an unusual Nike campaign: Who Needs This, Anyway? It is probably not what a lot of NFL fans want to hear. Lawrence knows his words will get twisted and used against him. He doesn’t seem too worried about it.

Lawrence is not just a great quarterback who went 34–2 in three seasons as a starter at Clemson, including a national championship victory over Alabama as a freshman. He is the rare prospect whose talent is beyond debate. Quarterback trainer Jordan Palmer, who first saw Lawrence at the Elite 11 camp when he was a rising high school senior, says, “Every year there is zero, one or two kids who you go, ‘Well, all right, that guy is going to be a star in the NFL.’ ”

Lawrence was one of those, and he has only improved. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. ranks him the fourth-best quarterback prospect since 1979, behind only John Elway, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. Last fall NFL fans wondered which team would win the Championship of Suck, finish with the league’s worst record and win the 6′ 6″, 220-pound Trevor Lawrence Trophy. Lawrence’s future is tantalizing to everybody, it seems, except him.

Lawrence spent his fall Sundays with Marissa. They would go out to eat, NFL games would be on, people at the next table would say something about his going to the Jets or Jaguars and Lawrence would barely pay attention. He says, “Toward the end [of the season], I was, like, a little curious: I wonder who won this week.” But the question did not consume him.

The Jets offered a chance to play in the country’s biggest media market, but that wouldn’t do much for Lawrence. His celebrity is like a hot-air balloon with his face on it: He sees it hovering above but never climbs in. When Lawrence signed with Clemson, the only media outlet he wanted at the press conference was Cartersville’s Daily Tribune News (circulation: about 6,000). And yet, anybody who assumed he wanted his hometown Falcons to get the top pick was wrong, too. Lawrence is not reclusive, just low-key. He is not driven by a desire to be a global icon.

And then there is the winning element; this is how we judge quarterbacks, and so much of it depends on going to the right franchise. But Lawrence has a different view of that, too. Just as he loves football but doesn’t need it, he loves winning but doesn’t need it. This is a hard thing to prove—in high school and college he rarely lost, and maybe once he tastes defeat more often, it will change him. But he has always gotten over losses quickly. He remained approachable, he talked to his teammates, he did not stew. Lawrence says when his college career ended in January, with a blowout loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff semifinals, “I knew I did all I could do. It would be dumb for me in that moment to think I could have done something different.”

Lawrence enters the NFL during an era of player empowerment. Matthew Stafford asked the Lions to move him and got his wish. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, to varying degrees, have put public pressure on their organizations to fix the roster or find a new quarterback. Meanwhile, Lawrence had only a passing interest in who might control the first few years of his career. All those quarterbacks are trying to take control of their lives rather than cede it to some billionaire. Some are doing it by finding another team; Lawrence is doing it by not letting his team define him.

He knew that whether he lived in Jacksonville or New York, he would be the same person, playing the sport he loves, with the same partner on his arm. He and Marissa were married last weekend.

“That’s such a big thing in anyone’s life, is finding who you want to be with, who you want to marry and who you want to spend the rest of your life with,” he says. “And the fact that we already have that is . . . I mean, it’s just the best.”

– – –

King is like a lot of football coaches. He believes in goals. Say them, write them down, wake up every day and try to achieve them. That was the strangest part about coaching the nation’s top high school quarterback: If Trevor Lawrence had goals, he didn’t talk about them. Lawrence never said he wanted to throw for a certain number of yards or so many touchdowns or be named the No. 1 recruit in the country. He would just say, “I just want to be better today than I was yesterday.” And yet, he competed so hard.

Before Lawrence’s senior year King brought the quarterback into his office and tried to pry something out of him. Goals, Trevor. You must have goals. Name one goal. As King recalls, “He wasn’t staring me in the eye or anything. There was probably a hair flip or shoulder shrug when he said it.” Lawrence casually told him, “Coach, I just want to be the best that’s ever done it.” They never spoke of it again.

Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com on the reaction:

Trevor Lawrence wants to make things clear. He didn’t misspeak in his Sports Illustrated profile, you just misheard him.

Lawrence took to Twitter on Saturday to further explain comments he made to “Sports Illustrated.” Lawrence raised some eyebrows after saying he thought it was unhealthy to manufacture sleights just to give yourself extra motivation to win games. Those comments angered some football fans, who demand their quarterback live, breathe and consume football 24/7.

As Lawrence clarified Saturday, while he loves football, he’s not that type of guy.

Lawrence’s full Twitter comments read:

“It seems as if people are misreading my sentiment. I am internally motivated — I love football as much or more than anyone. It is a HUGE priority in my life, obviously. I am driven to be the best I can be, and to maximize my potential. And to WIN.

“I have a lot of confidence in my work ethic, I love to grind and to chase my goals. You can ask anyone who has been in my life. That being said, I am secure in who I am, and what I believe. I don’t need football to make me feel worthy as a person. I purely love the game and everything that comes with it. The work, the team, the ups and downs. I am a firm believer in the fact that there is a plan for my life and I’m called to be the best I can be at whatever I am doing. Thanks for coming to my TedTalk lol.”

He also gave away some of the wealth that will be coming his way.

Even Trevor Lawrence thinks he’s likely going to be the Jacksonville Jaguars’ choice at the top of the NFL draft.

The former Clemson standout acknowledged that during a Sunday evening tweet in which he thanked Jaguars fans for purchasing a wedding gift and raising more than $11,000 for him to donate to a charity of his choice. Lawrence wrote that he and his wife, Marissa, will donate $20,000 to charities in Jacksonville and that they “hope to be a part of your community soon.”

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Peter King:

15. NEW ENGLAND. Bill Belichick has run or been a chief honcho in 26 drafts—five in Cleveland, 21 in New England. Never has he picked a quarterback in the first round. Once has he picked a quarterback in the second round (Jimmy Garoppolo, 2014). Never has he picked a quarterback in the top 60 of a draft. So you might look at all that history and eliminate the Pats from moving up to 10 or nine or eight to pick a passer. I wouldn’t eliminate that chance, because Belichick is proving this year that there’s no book on roster-building for him, particularly in the post-Brady era. Now, I doubt the Pats will trade next year’s first-round pick, the likely cost to move up into QB-acquisition position, but nothing’s certain with the Patriots now.

THIS AND THAT

WORKOUTS

Peter King is all for players staying home, but do so because you don’t want to work, not because you have COVID concerns:

Regarding the spate of teams whose players do not plan to attend the voluntary offseason workouts, five thoughts.

1) The workouts have morphed from “voluntary” to “you must not like football much if you skip them” over the years, so I am all for players who say they’re not showing up. The players, though, must understand possible consequences. If some in your position group show up and you don’t, and if they’re ahead of you come training camp, that’s the cost of not going.

2) I would bet that some players on teams that issued statements saying players won’t be attending the voluntary workouts will actually attend them—and we won’t know it. There’s no benefit for teams to announce which players are attending and which are not.

3) For the players saying they’re staying away over fears of COVID-19 exposure, come on. If players work out at home gyms away from strangers, of course it’s safer. But it is folly to think that players who work out at a public gym, for instance, will be safer than working out at a team facility with COVID safety precautions in place. And here’s an idea if you’re concerned about COVID: get vaccinated.

4) Players who work out in team facilities are covered if they’re injured while doing so. Players injured while working out on their own are not covered, and teams could choose to not pay them. Do players know that?

5) I like the union flexing its muscles and making sure players know they don’t have to go to these workouts. At the same time, every player should make his own decision, particularly a player who has a contract clause paying him for attending X percent of offseason workouts. The union says it will support players with such clauses, which is the right thing to do.

This will be bad for first-year coaches, and for some second-year coaches (Mike McCarthy for one) making staff changes, and for teams with a personnel makeover (New England for one). But teams will figure it out. They always do. Last year, Cleveland had a new coaching staff, a bunch of new players and new schemes and went 11-5 and won a playoff game. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl despite Tom Brady not huddling with his new offense till a month before the first game of the season. I feel pretty sure coaches are smart enough to make all systems work if players report to camp 47 days before the first game of the season.

A few more notes:

• The league, I hear, is leaning toward relaxing COVID safety restrictions in-house if Tier 1 and 2 employees on a given team (those who come into contact with players most days) reach 85 percent vaccination rate and players on that given team also reach 85 percent vax rate.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com has a compromise, based on the premise that some players believe more in their private workouts than those constructed by the team:

Plenty of veterans believe that their own offseason strength and conditioning routines are superior to the programs offered by their teams. For years, players like Odell Beckham Jr. and Ndakumong Suh have done their own thing in the early stages of the program, showing up (if at all) for the on-field OTA sessions. Last year’s experience allowed more players to realize that they can get and stay in the right shape through their own strength, conditioning, and agility drills — on their own time and in their own cities, without having to return to the places where they play football.

It’s not that players don’t want to work. They want to work their own way, and they’re willing to assume the risk of injury arising from exercising on their own.

When it comes to the on-field work, most players are willing to show up for Organized Team Activities, still the clunkiest term ever invented for “football practice.”

So here’s the compromise that could solve the problem. For Phase One (which this year lasts four weeks), players would be able to participate in meetings virtually and work out on their own. Although teams would not be responsible for injuries, attending the virtual meetings and working out remotely would qualify for both the $275 per diem and credit toward satisfying the criteria for receiving a workout bonus.

In Phase Two (one week) and Phase Three (four weeks), the players would have to attend and participate in the on-field sessions for the per diem and for workout bonus credit.

The Packers, per a source with knowledge of the situation, already have offered this middle ground to its players, even though the Packers are one of the only teams whose players won’t be pressured to join in the boycott due to the magnitude of workout bonuses utilized. In a letter sent Thursday to all players, the Packers explained that players will receive credit toward their workout bonuses by participating virtually in Phase One. For Phase Two and Phase Three, presence at Lambeau Field will be required in order to satisfy the requirements of the workout bonus.

These are, per a source with knowledge of the situation, team-by-team decisions. Although the league has decided that players this year can receive the $275 per diem for virtually participating in Phase One, the team decides whether virtual participation in Phase One counts toward the workout bonus calculation.

If more teams would make the offer that the Packers have made, more teams may see their players for Phase Two and Phase Three, if they’re willing not to have them around for Phase One.

In future years, that could also be a smart approach. Give players with workout bonuses the option to work out at the facility or elsewhere in Phase One, but still require on-field presence for Phase Two and Phase Three in order to qualify for the payment.

It’s a term that could have been negotiated globally between the league and the union last year. It’s a term that the various teams could voluntarily offer now in order to encourage more players to show up for the voluntary workouts that are most relevant to preparing for the coming season — Phase Two and Phase Three.

2021 DRAFT

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com has his thoughts on the first 10 picks.  He thinks New England does a very un-Patriot thing and jumps up to #4:

With the draft roughly two weeks away, and teams locked down in meetings to finalize evaluations and set their boards, I figured I’d take my first shot at figuring out the top 10.

Obviously much could change between now and when these picks are made, and as always, my one-and-only mock draft won’t come out until draft day, but I have been in contact with a number of execs picking in the top 10 and many agents for top prospects and things seem to be coming into focus, somewhat at least.

Here is what I am thinking:

1) Jacksonville – Trevor Lawrence. Duh.

2) N.Y. Jets – Zach Wilson. Double duh.

3) San Francisco – Mac Jones. I’ll go with the conventional groupthink here for this exercise.

4) TRADE New England – Trey Lance. The Falcons might not want to go down to the mid-teens, but then again with such a premium on offensive players they should still get a blue chip defender in the Pats’ spot, plus amass much-needed draft capital for their version of a rebuild-on-the-fly with new management lacking in surplus picks. The hoody gets his QB.

5) Cincinnati – Kyle Pitts. I believe this is where owner Mike Brown’s heart is right now, and if he wants Pitts, they’ll get Pitts.

6) Miami – Ja’Marr Chase. Run on WRs starts here, and the LSU burner has the chance to be very special.

7) Detroit – Justin Fields. I expect the OSU QB to crush his final workout. Jared Goff has limitations. Letting Fields sit a year would be smart. They have additional draft capital from the Matt Stafford/Goff deal to be flexible in 2021 and beyond.

8) Carolina – Penei Sewell. New QB Sam Darnold now has bookend tackles to go with an array of weapons on offense. No excuses.

9) Denver – Micah Parsons. There may be some character concerns, but this is an elite athlete who can disrupt all over. Vic Fangio is trying to win with this defense right now, and they can add a quarterback via trade (more on that below). Eventually some defensive players have to come off the board.

10) Dallas – Rashawn Slater. Dak Prescott is coming off season-ending surgery and the OL has become an issue. A few years back the Cowboys road funneling picks into the OL into becoming a decent team again. Time to start reloading with that group up front aging and oft-injured.

And this:

Talking to a few execs this week who strongly believe the top 15 picks will skew heavily to the offensive side of the ball, with a run on defensive players completing the round. You see that reflected in this top 10. With five QBs expected to go in the top 10, and likely three WRs in the top 12, and two tackles, at least, in the top 15 or so, plus Pitts … well, do the math.

Here is a full first round Mock Draft from Eric Edholm of YahooSports.com:

Pro days are mostly done. Free agency has slowed to a crawl. And now NFL teams are well into the process of stacking their draft boards with April 29 fast approaching.

There are some loose medical ends that need tying up, but for the most part we know what the big picture looks like for the 2021 draft.

How it actually shakes out is another matter. But we’re giving it a crack here with our penultimate mock draft for 2021, with one more set to arrive the week of the draft.

The feeling right now? There will be a lot of activity involving Round 1, with a few more big first-round trades — centered on the quarterbacks — still likely to come.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence

He skipped the NFL scouting combine medical recheck in Indianapolis for his surgically repaired shoulder to get married. Solid excuse. It also tells us that Lawrence knows for sure he’s going first overall.

2. New York Jets

BYU QB Zach Wilson

The feeling heading into Wilson’s pro day on March 26 was that Wilson was the favorite here. Nothing changed after that. It feels nearly certain now.

3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans)

Alabama QB Mac Jones

We’ll find out on April 29 around 8:30 p.m. ET whether Jones is the pick. Last mock we had Trey Lance in this slot, and when we sent it to a few folks around the league (with other teams) for review, two of them mentioned that their belief was that Jones, not Lance, would be picked third. We shall see if they are right, but you can blame me if they’re not.

4. Atlanta Falcons

North Dakota State QB Trey Lance

I could see Lance landing in this spot one way or another. Either as the Falcons’ future QB after they move on from Matt Ryan (at some point) or to another team trading up into this spot. Justin Fields is the local kid and appears to be the favorite QB among the team’s fans. The Falcons could regard Lance as having a higher ceiling long term. Just a guess.

Could they take Kyle Pitts here and assemble a battery of freaky pass catchers? Sure. We love the guy. But taking the long-term QB — or trading down — would create more bang for Atlanta’s buck.

5. Cincinnati Bengals

Florida TE Kyle Pitts

There’s some buzz around the league that the Bengals feel they’ve done enough to upgrade their offensive line to bypass that spot (and Penei Sewell) at No. 5. That’s … interesting.

Pitts has the higher ceiling as a prospect. He’s an alien, basically. So Joe Burrow getting another premier weapon feels like a good thing. As long as the Bengals double back (at 38 or 69) and grab more OL beef.

6. Miami Dolphins (via Philadelphia Eagles)

LSU WR JaMarr Chase

Sewell might be tough to pass on here, but Chase would give Miami a highly confident playmaker who can make life easier for Tua Tagovailoa with his separation, competitive ball skills and run-after-catch ability.

Now you’d have a WRs room with Chase, DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, Preston Williams, Lynn Bowden Jr., Jakeem Grant and others, which feels as strong as Miami has had at that spot in forever. That said, if Chase went fifth, we’d have pegged them Pitts.

7. Detroit Lions

Oregon OT Penei Sewell

Last time around, I had Penn State LB Micah Parsons here, a player they’ll have a high regard for. But with Sewell on the board, I am not sure the Lions would pass on him. Would they move Taylor Decker to right tackle? Not initially. Sewell could be the right tackle and slide over to the left side in a few years if needed.

8. Carolina Panthers

Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II

They went with an all-defense draft in 2020, but new GM Scott Fitterer shouldn’t be too concerned with that in 2021, even though trading for QB Sam Darnold could lead to them wanting to give him some blocking help.

Corner also remains a glaring need, though, and Surtain fits the mold of the long, athletic cover man defensive coordinator Phil Snow seeks and the prototype that the Seattle Seahawks prioritized when Fitterer was a key member of their scouting department. Seattle almost exclusively drafted corners with arm lengths 32 inches or longer, and Surtain crosses that bar — and he can play, too.

9. Denver Broncos

Ohio State QB Justin Fields

Don’t know if it works out exactly like this, but Fields’ arrival would be a major threat to Drew Lock’s starting status. The Broncos tried to get into the Matthew Stafford derby, and they could move up to No. 4 if they want Lance. But if Fields drops, not costing them anything additional to take him, it would be a win for new GM George Paton.

10. Dallas Cowboys

Northwestern OT-OG Rashawn Slater

This will anger some Cowboys fans, and we get it. They need defense! We know, we know. Would they consider South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn here? Maybe — he’d fit Dan Quinn’s preference for longer corners. What about LB Micah Parsons? Another maybe, especially if they’re worried about the health of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch.

But Slater could be a Day 1 starting left guard who eventually moves to tackle. Dallas has done a good job of sticking to its board, especially with first-rounders, so a Slater pick here shouldn’t be stunning. Some teams believe he has a chance to be picked ahead of Sewell.

11. New York Giants

Penn State LB Micah Parsons

Parsons fits a need for another playmaker on Patrick Graham’s emerging defense. That unit ranked in the top 10 in yards per play and points allowed but was in the middle of the pack in turnovers. Parsons (19 career TFLs, 6.5 sacks, six forced fumbles) is a big-play threat.

The Giants also would have intel on Parsons that other teams don’t: DL coach Sean Spencer, who was very close with Parsons at Penn State and could help vouch for his character, if needed.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn

They could go with an outside corner in Round 1 and add a nickel corner with one of their three Day 2 picks. Horn would start immediately opposite Darius Slay and potentially be a significant upgrade over the options currently in place.

The NFC East is suddenly strong at receiver, with Kenny Golladay joining the Giants and Curtis Samuel going to the Washington Football Team, so the Eagles will need as many talented cover men as possible.

13. Los Angeles Chargers

Virginia Tech OT Christian Darrisaw

The Chargers have upgraded the OL interior, but left tackle looms as a big void entering the draft. New head coach Brandon Staley seemed to suggest in a recent news conference that length and pass blocking are two big traits he likes in his left tackles, which leads us to Darrisaw.

He’s a three-year starter at left tackle who has allowed a mere three sacks (zero in 2020) over more than 1,100 pass-blocking snaps. Oh, and he has 34-inch arms and great mass for the run game, too. Justin Herbert’s protection gets better.

14. Minnesota Vikings

Michigan EDGE Kwity Paye

Maybe Mike Zimmer was being coy when he said after the season that he liked where his offense was at. An offensive lineman could make sense, but don’t they at least want to see if 2020 second-rounder Ezra Cleveland can play left tackle?

Paye might not be a sexy pick to some, but his upside is intriguing if he can channel his athleticism into better pass-rush results. The Vikings need bodies up front.

15. New England Patriots

Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle

Imagine them having their choice of DeVonta Smith or Waddle? Even after upgrading the WRs room this offseason, there’s ample room for Waddle’s explosive, game-changing ability — both as a receiver and returner. This also could make up for the retirement of Julian Edelman.

As for QB, I’m starting to change my tune from what I wrote amid the Patriots’ free-agent flurry, that a draft day trade up for a premier passer made sense. It would take the almost perfect scenario for Belichick to pull the trigger on that maneuver. Perhaps they’re waiting for the 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo) and Raiders (Marcus Mariota) to make one of their veterans available to create a competition with Cam Newton.

16. Arizona Cardinals

Alabama WR DeVonta Smith

The Cardinals certainly could trade down here. Right now, they lack picks in Rounds 3, 4 and 6 and currently have one selection in a nearly 200-pick span between Days 2 and 3.

If this scenario unfolded, with the Heisman Trophy-winning Smith still on the board, he’d be tough to pass up. They signed A.J. Green, and Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t yet said whether he’ll come back, but adding Smith to this group would be a no-brainer. The Cardinals have no great tight ends — just go four- and five-wide all game.

17. Las Vegas Raiders

Oklahoma State OT Teven Jenkins

For many teams, Jenkins might grade out close to the late first, early second-round range. But GM Mike Mayock hasn’t been afraid to reach for players with a lower league value for what they view as an ideal fit. Jenkins is big, nasty, smart and competitive, and he has played four different OL spots. For the Raiders he could be a Day 1 starter at right tackle, currently a big void.

18. Dolphins

Miami EDGE Jaelan Phillips

It feels more prudent for them to wait for a running back, which they can grab at Nos. 36 or 50 overall in Round 2. The Dolphins didn’t add a pass rusher this offseason and currently have some uninspiring options to chase quarterbacks.

The debate here was between Phillips and Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari. We sided with Phillips because of his length and extraordinary athletic burst. His medical and character reports will determine his draft landing spot. He could go from a top-20 pick all the way to a second-rounder.

19. Washington Football Team

Tulsa LB Zaven Collins

Ron Rivera had Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs in Chicago, Shawne Merriman in San Diego and Luke Kuechly in Carolina. All were big, rangy, highly instinctive linebackers who can play big or small. Collins fits that mold, and he has fascinating potential in the right hands. Washington has put together a nice defense but has a few holes at linebacker and safety, another position WFT could fill here (maybe Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah?).

Worth noting: There’s also talk floating around that Washington loves Trey Lance and could make a big move up to grab him.

20. Chicago Bears

Florida WR Kadarius Toney

Predicting how the Bears will approach this draft is difficult. They have major needs at quarterback and tackle, and yet the cards don’t line up ideally here at either spot. They also could use another receiver, and Toney can be used as a multifaceted weapon on schemed-up touches until he develops more.

And to the Bears fans who react despondently to this pick, we get it … but check out the name one evaluator evoked to us when we asked them about Toney’s electric skills with the ball in his hands.

21. Indianapolis Colts

USC OG-OT Alijah Vera-Tucker

GM Chris Ballard says he’s a listen-to-the-board drafter, and Vera-Tucker is a top-20 prospect in some evaluators’ minds. Can he play left tackle? All we saw of him in college was six games’ worth at that spot in 2020, and he might lack ideal length at that position in the NFL. Could the Colts move Quenton Nelson to left tackle and play Vera-Tucker at left guard? Don’t rule that out.

22. Tennessee Titans

Ole Miss WR Elijah Moore

They’ve lost some firepower in the passing game and could use a YAC threat such as Moore. A.J. Brown and Josh Reynolds are OK on the outside, but the slot is vacant now. Perhaps the Titans could give Moore a shot to be their primary returner after losing Kalif Raymond to the Lions.

23. Jets (from Seattle Seahawks)

Notre Dame S-LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Perhaps there are more pressing needs, but GM Joe Douglas is a talent hound who knows a bargain when he sees one. JOK would work well as a weakside linebacker (or as a big safety) in the new defensive system and could develop into a playmaker like the ones new head coach Robert Saleh had in San Francisco with Kwon Alexander and Dre Greenlaw.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

Alabama C-OG Landon Dickerson

The retirement of Maurkice Pouncey means the Steelers need a center. Their run game has slogged, and Ben Roethlisberger needs all the protection he can receive. Dickerson is a massive mauler with versatility to play any of the three interior spots and possesses the exact temperament the Steelers seek.

The problem: His torn ACL in December (along with a lengthy medical history) leave his short- and long-term health in question. Dickerson could go late first round … or tumble well into Day 2 if the medical reports come back ugly. Alabama RB Najee Harris was another player we thought long and hard about here.

25. Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams)

Alabama DT Christian Barmore

When the Jaguars lost out on Tyson Alualu, it left a void up front. It’s clear they want to add size and athleticism. The redshirt sophomore isn’t ready for prime time yet but has disruptive traits and the highest ceiling of what looks like a lean year for DTs.

26. Cleveland Browns

Northwestern CB Greg Newsome II

We’ve placed edge rushers here in recent mocks, but a corner also could be a great fit. The highly confident and athletic Newsome could vie for a starting role in Cleveland right away if he can beat out Greedy Williams. The Browns know they need to curb the number of big plays they allow in the pass game, and this would be one savvy way to address that.

27. Baltimore Ravens

Georgia EDGE Azeez Ojulari

Losing Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue puts edge rush high on their wish list. And in this scenario, the Ravens find a young, highly productive rusher who should grade highly on their board after a 9.5-sack, four-FF season in his 12 games.

28. New Orleans Saints

Stanford QB Davis Mills

Whoo, boy. We’re not certain Mills will crack the top 32 picks, but a landing spot here wouldn’t be a stunner. The Saints have bypassed QBs left and right over the years in an effort to add more immediate firepower. With Drew Brees gone, the Saints are left with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill.

They could roll the dice on Mills — whom they’ve done their homework on — after his limited body of work (11 college starts) but promising upside. Every few years we see teams late in Round 1 draft QBs (Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, Paxton Lynch, Teddy Bridgewater) with an eye on locking them in with the fifth-year option.

29. Green Bay Packers

Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley

The Packers have been aggressive in Round 1 under GM Brian Gutekunst, trading up multiple times the past few years. Drafting Farley would be a different form of aggression, betting that Farley’s health worries are worth the risk on a player who was a possible top-10 pick at one point. And traditionally, this is a club that is conservative when it comes to medical risks. But they sure could use some insurance for Kevin King, and Farley could be a home run selection — or, if his back problems worsen, a whiff.

30. Buffalo Bills

Penn State EDGE Jayson Oweh

The Bills have struggled to heat up their pass rush and could use another body here. As it turns out, Oweh might have the most tailor-made EDGE body in the entire class. He’s an elite athlete with rudimentary pass-rush skills that can be coached up over time. His upside is thrilling, and Oweh should be a good locker-room fit in Buffalo.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

LSU WR Terrace Marshall Jr.

The Chiefs could use another big, fast receiver, believe it or not, and Marshall fits the bill. There are some pitfalls in his evaluation (medical concerns, opting out midseason), but Marshall makes sense — yet another LSU pick late in Round 1.

And this also would have a feel-good element to it, too. Marshall’s great uncle, Joe Delaney, was the Chiefs’ second-rounder in 1981 and a beloved star in the making prior to his drowning in 1983 while trying to save some children.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Alabama RB Najee Harris

With 22 starters back from a Super Bowl winner, the Bucs are in a glorious position here. Harris should supplant Leonard Fournette in time if this happens, and we can see Bruce Arians falling for a back who mimics some of the things David Johnson did for him in Arizona.