THE DAILY BRIEFING
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NFC EAST
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PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are feeling good about signing QB JALEN HURTS to a long-term deal. Tim McManus of ESPN.com:
Speaking at the league meetings in Arizona last week, Eagles CEO Jeffrey Lurie included Jalen Hurts on a select list of quarterbacks he views as borderline unstoppable in the NFL.
Lurie explained his team always allocates more dollars to the offensive side of the ball because even the best defenses face long odds when going up against elite signal-callers.
“It’s very hard to stop … the Jalen Hurts’, the Patrick Mahomes’, the Josh Allens, the Joe Burrows … Aaron Rodgers and all of that group. It’s impossible given the rules of this league,” Lurie said.
Of all the factors that go into the success of an organization — culture, scouting, coaching, etc. — Lurie said “the hardest part for sure is the scarcity of really good quarterbacks. We’ve got one and we’ve got a very special player and individual in that position. It bodes very well for us.”
Both Lurie and general manager Howie Roseman have referred to Hurts as a franchise quarterback this offseason. Their conviction in him is evident in how they talk about him and in their eagerness to sign him to a contract extension that could cost about $50 million per season.
The excitement is understandable given how Hurts elevated his game to a level worthy of MVP consideration in 2022 and went toe-to-toe with Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII, racking up 374 total yards and four touchdowns with one costly turnover in a 38-35 loss to the Chiefs.
It’s also striking how quickly the team’s words and actions have shifted over the course of a year. At these meetings last March, Lurie spoke of the difficulty of projecting QBs, calling what is thought of as an “automatic franchise quarterback … almost non-existent.” He knew Hurts had enough promising traits to potentially develop into one, but added “Who knows what the future holds, right?”
Underscoring that uncertainty was the reported interest the Eagles showed in Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson in the weeks and months prior. Lurie at the time chalked any work they put into the players as due diligence and declined to say whether he would have greenlit a trade if Watson wanted to come to Philadelphia.
As dedicated as Hurts is to his craft, it was hard to forecast that he would make such a profound leap in his second season as a fulltime starter. He went from 19th (54.6) to fourth (66.4) in QBR and 26th (61.3%) to 11th (66.5%) in completion percentage while dropping his average time before throw from 3.12 seconds (31st) to 2.76 seconds (16th) on average. His 43 total touchdowns surpassed Donovan McNabb for most ever in a single season in franchise history, helping him to second-team All-Pro honors and a Pro Bowl nod.
And according to coach Nick Sirianni, he has not let up this offseason.
“He’s still in there working hard, he’s still in there lifting and working it like a maniac in the weight room, just getting after it. People have asked me, ‘How good can Jalen Hurts be?’ No one knows what Jalen’s ceiling can be but I know, God willing, he can reach it because of all the factors that he has. He’s not all of a sudden different. He’s still putting in the work like you’ve seen him put in the work the last couple years.”
It will be hard for Hurts to be surrounded by the same level of talent as he was last season. Rosters like that don’t come along often, and there won’t be nearly as much money to go around once Hurts transitions from rookie to mega-contract. With Roseman hoping such a deal is done “relatively soon” he is approaching this offseason accordingly.
“We’re going into it with our eyes open and understanding that we’ve got to kind of flip it (to have some younger, less expensive players on the roster),” he said.
There are lessons to take from the team’s last Super Bowl trip in 2017, when Carson Wentz was still on a rookie deal, to the less successful years that followed as the talent fell off and Wentz eventually got his mega-contract in 2019.
There were injuries and poor personnel decisions that held them back, but “I think also, the important thing is you need high-level quarterback play,” Roseman said.
Wentz wasn’t able to provide it at a regular clip. They’re betting Hurts will.
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WASHINGTON
The end is near for Daniel Snyder’s reign over Washington’s NFL team. Rory Parks ofProFootballRumors.com:
Momentum towards a Commanders sale continues to build, with Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports reporting that owner Dan Snyder is likely to sell the franchise in the next one to three weeks. Although no Commanders-related matter was officially on the agenda at last week’s league meetings, Falcons owner Arthur Blank appeared to confirm that a sale is imminent.
“The league is doing whatever it can to help support the Snyders in this transaction and transition,” Blank said. “I saw [Snyder’s wife] Tanya [Snyder] this morning and wished her well, Dan as well. I think their family has moved to London, I believe. We’ll see what will happen. He’s a young man, his children are young, his wife’s young and they have a whole life ahead of them. I certainly wish them well.”
Indeed, as Nicki Jhabvala, Liz Clarke, and Mark Maske of the Washington Post reported in January, the Snyders recently filed a certificate of incorporation of a private limited company for Snyder UK Investments Limited with the registrar of companies for England and Wales. On that certificate, the Snyders — both of whom are listed as company directors — name England as their usual place of residence.
Furthermore, the Synders’ son, Gerry Snyder, is no longer on the Appalachian State football roster, and Jones reports that Gerry is not enrolled at the school this semester. Dan Snyder has cleared out his ownership offices and has put one D.C.-area estate on the market.
In addition to Josh Harris, Steve Apostolopoulos, and Tilman Fertitta, there is a mystery fourth bidder in the mix, according to Jones, although the identity of that bidder is presently unknown. While the most recent reporting on the matter suggested that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos remains in play, Charles Gasparino of FOX Business Network says that Mark Cuban, the owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, has no interest in the Commanders (Twitter link). Interestingly, former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III is interested in joining the Harris group, as the one-time face of the franchise said during a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show (via Madison Williams of SI.com).
Gasaprino also hears that reports of the Harris- and Apostolopoulos-led groups hitting the fully-funded $6 billion are a bit overstated. Instead, those bids come with contingencies, and the “real” number is actually closer to $5 billion (Twitter links). One way or another, Dan Snyder is going to realize quite a return on investment, as he purchased the club for $800MM back in 1999.
Another point to consider is that, regardless of the details of the final proposals, Dan Snyder does not have to sell the Commanders to the highest bidder, and can instead sell to the group he likes the most. For instance, Jones suggests that Snyder may not care for the fact that the Harris and Apostolopoulos groups have leaked reports of their ability to obtain the necessary cash for the purchase of his team when he himself has not even confirmed that the team is for sale. Similarly, the personal tension between Snyder and Bezos has been oft-cited as a reason why Bezos may not be able to acquire the franchise despite having the financial wherewithal to blow other candidates out of the water.
The pending sale also has some on-field ramifications. We had already heard about the delayed payouts of signing bonuses included in recent player contracts, and JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington says that the status of DE Chase Young‘s fifth-year option could be impacted by the ownership situation (Twitter link). After a tremendous rookie campaign, Young sustained a torn ACL and patellar tendon in Week 10 of the 2021 season, which limited him to nine games that year and just three contests in 2022. However, because Young does have a Pro Bowl nod on his resume, his fifth-year option would check in at a fully-guaranteed $17.5MM.
A decision on Young’s option must be made by May 2. And, while the team is reportedly committed to 2022 fifth-rounder Sam Howell as its starting quarterback, head coach Ron Rivera said that a new owner’s viewpoints on the matter could alter the Commanders’ QB direction.
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NFC SOUTH
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CAROLINA
Frank Reich pushes back against the belief that he only likes tall QBs and thus will auto-draft QB C.J. STROUD of The Ohio State University:
1. Carolina. Bryce Young has a lot of fans inside the Panthers.
“You’re the one who started that?” Panthers coach Frank Reich said to me at the league meetings, about this QB-height thing I wrote about in March: Reich’s been a QB coach, coordinator or head coach for 17 years, and in all but six of the games in those 17 years, his quarterback was 6-4 or taller. He told me height of the quarterback is not really a thing. So the 5-10 Bryce Young and 6-3 C.J. Stroud are both very much alive in the running for the first pick in the draft. And I believe him, absolutely.
But one longtime friend of Reich’s told me the height thing is legit with him, and though Reich hasn’t told him so, this friend would be surprised if Young were Reich’s top choice. Reich’s not saying. The other thing I hear is several influential voices in the organization favor Young. That doesn’t mean Young will be the pick—not at all. This will be a collaborative choice, and the Panthers still have organizational meetings ahead to set their draft board with finality. But before he took the Carolina quarterback-coach job, Josh McCown reportedly told friends he loved Young. What that means after he’s studied all of the passers, I don’t know.
I asked one coach who has studied the top quarterbacks and two top analysts who also have studied them how they have the top four rated after the pro-day circuit. The coach I gave anonymity. Todd McShay of ESPN is one analyst and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network is the other. I did not tell any of the three any opinions of others. Each of the three has this order of the top three: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson. Will Levis was four for McShay and Jeremiah, but the coach said he is not sold on Levis and believes he deserves a second-round grade.
The game has changed in how quarterbacks are viewed. Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, both height-challenged, have seen to that. Still, what’s notable to me is we’re talking about a 5-10 1/8, 198ish-pound quarterback without Kyler Murray speed possibly being the top quarterback picked in the draft, over a 6-3 quarterback, Stroud, who sliced and diced the national champ with by far the best defense (Georgia’s) in the college game. “Just watch Young,” the coach said. “When I watch tape, I don’t see size. He doesn’t play small.” This follows another team official who told me before the meetings Young’s height is not a disadvantage. Well, it is, but he still might be picked first on draft night, assuming Reich is on board. Last thing to note: Frank Reich is not one to brawl about players, even one as important as this one. He’s a consensus-seeker. I think he likes Young, and likes him a lot. I just don’t know if he likes him more than Stroud. But if he favors Stroud, and if the majority of the influencers inside the Panthers love Young, I believe Reich will be okay with picking him.
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NFC WEST
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams may not be very good right now, but Peter King still praises the all-in approach that sent them up and down – at least compared to the flat-line caution of the Colts:
Colts owner Jim Irsay said to local reporters the other day: “There was an article recently saying the Rams mortgaged their future and now they’re paying for it after they won the Super Bowl and had all that success, with the draft picks not being there. To me, that’s what you have to be careful about.”
I get what Irsay’s saying, but let’s make some numerical points here. Which team would you rather be:
The Rams, 49-33 in the last five regular seasons with two conference titles and one Super Bowl championship, $5.1 million under the cap (per overthecap.com), with a franchise quarterback, with 11 draft picks overall this year and three in the top 100?
Or the Colts, 41-40-1 in the last five regular seasons with zero conference titles and zero Super Bowl championships, $12.5 million under the cap, searching for a franchise quarterback, with nine draft picks overall this year and three in the top 100—albeit the fourth overall pick?
Teams should be in this to compete in Super Bowls, and the Rams have played in two of the last five Super Bowls. The Colts have one Wild Card win over those five years.
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
Good news for the Broncos. Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
Denver Broncos receiver Tim Patrick missed the entire 2022 season after tearing his ACL in training camp. It was a brutally early ending for the big-bodied receiver on the rise, and in hindsight, exemplified how the season would go for the Broncos.
But with a new year comes new hope. Denver imported Sean Payton, who could immediately cure what ailed the Brocons offense last season.
And Patrick is already on the mend toward a return. The wideout told Steve Smith Sr. on the Cut To It podcast that he’s already running routes and sprints ahead of organized team activities.
“At this point, I’m cleared to do everything,” Patrick said, via the team’s official website. “At this point, I’m just doing repetition to get myself ready to play in a game.”
Patrick was on the rise after going undrafted out of Utah in 2017. The 6-foot-4 wideout displayed size, good hands and the ability to line up in multiple spots. His progress was so substantial Broncos GM George Paton inked him to a three-year, $30 million deal in November of 2021 — a move which looked prescient last offseason with WR contracts going bonkers.
But the ACL tear prematurely wiped out what could have been a big breakout season.
Patrick’s injury might have flown under the radar nationally, but it had a disastrous effect on Denver’s scheme. While not devastating to a WR corps that still boasted Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, his absence destabilized the plan and forced a shuffling of the lineup.
Patrick’s return, hopefully fully healthy after a year of rehab, would be a big boon for Payton’s first season. The wideout told Smith Sr. he’s already working on cutting on the surgically repaired knee and working on not thinking about the injury.
“I feel like that’s going to happen when there’s a defender in front of me,” Patrick said. “It’s either going to be the choice of getting locked up or you’re going to get open for a catch. And I want a catch, so I’m not even going to worry about what I’ve got going on. I’m going to do whatever it takes to get open.”
With KJ Hamler already dealing with another injury for the WR room, Patrick remaining on course to return is key for the Broncos’ corps in 2023.
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LAS VEGAS
Candor from the owner of the Raiders:
“The only consistent thing with the Raiders for the last 11 years has been me. And the fact that we haven’t won falls on me. There’s no passing the buck or pointing the fingers. The buck stops here.” – Mark Davis
We would add that he lost his coach when The Commish took exception to leaked personal emails from years ago.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic game plans where we might be headed in the saga of QB LAMAR JACKSON:
What would represent the worst-case scenario in the ongoing contract stalemate between the Ravens and their star quarterback, Lamar Jackson, depends on one’s perspective. However, neither side can be too comfortable with the path the situation appears to be taking.
For Jackson, that’s obvious. He has been able to field contract offers for 2 1/2 weeks, and no suitors have emerged. At last week’s owners’ meetings, most of the teams who were viewed as potential fits for Jackson said they weren’t interested in the Ravens’ disgruntled quarterback. The lack of a known outside market made Jackson’s decision to go public with his trade request look more like an act of desperation than a rebuke of the Ravens.
If another team doesn’t come forward with either a trade offer or an offer sheet for Jackson, he’s going to be faced with an interesting decision: play the year under the $32.4 million franchise tag or sit out the season. That almost certainly is not a situation Jackson wants to confront.
As for the Ravens, one of the positives of using the non-exclusive tag on Jackson was that it had the potential to spur a quick resolution, especially if the quarterback had a cadre of suitors. It hasn’t worked out that way, and the Ravens have been in a virtual holding pattern as a result. They’ve mostly operated in the past couple of weeks like a team trying to preserve salary-cap space in case Jackson signs an offer sheet elsewhere and they have to match.
For much of this process, it felt like a formality that the Ravens would match any offer sheet for Jackson. Moving on from Jackson, a 26-year-old former league MVP, and getting only two first-round picks in return would qualify as selling low.
However, the longer this goes and the more obvious it becomes the Ravens and Jackson are not close to being on the same page, the better the two first-round picks and an immediate injection of $32.4 million in cap space start to look. If team officials believe Jackson legitimately wants out and if trust has eroded on both sides to the point where the relationship is damaged, then letting the quarterback depart via an offer sheet or trade becomes more viable.
But where is the offer sheet going to come from? The Indianapolis Colts seemingly have been the team most willing to explore adding Jackson. Yet team decision-makers have made it known they’d prefer drafting a quarterback. It seems that the Colts will get involved in the Jackson bidding only if they can’t get the rookie quarterback they want.
The Colts have the No. 4 pick in a draft that almost certainly will start with the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans selecting quarterbacks with the No. 1 and No. 2 picks. Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young are widely expected to be the first two quarterbacks off the board. If the Colts are comfortable with either Florida’s Anthony Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis, they can stick at No. 4 and are guaranteed to get one of them.
If they have a clear preference, they may have to trade with the Arizona Cardinals, who are not in the quarterback market, to move into the No. 3 slot and take the quarterback they want. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will almost certainly be hearing from QB-needy teams looking to trade ahead of the Colts and pick No. 4.
Where it will get interesting is if the Colts aren’t sold on either Richardson or Levis and are unable to draft the quarterback they want. There probably would be only one remaining play that would allow them to salvage their offseason, and that’s acquiring Jackson. But at that point, would the Ravens even entertain the idea? The timing certainly isn’t in their favor. Any offer sheet after the draft means the Ravens would get the signing team’s 2024 and 2025 first-round picks. That’s not going to help them secure a starting quarterback for the upcoming season.
Trading Jackson after the draft or letting him leave with an offer sheet would likely mean the Ravens beginning the season with Tyler Huntley as their starting quarterback. That doesn’t necessarily fit with a roster otherwise built to win now, and it would be against everything this front office typically stands for to not do everything it can to field a contending team this year.
This late in the game, though, the options are limited. Beyond agreeing to a long-term contract extension with Jackson in the coming weeks, the Ravens are going to be in a precarious situation. If he doesn’t attract an offer sheet or a suitable trade offer, the Ravens will be left to wonder whether Jackson will play the season on the tag or he’ll opt to sit out. If he does sign an offer sheet, the Ravens will be forced to decide between absorbing a contract they may not like or allowing their starting quarterback to leave without a suitable replacement on the roster.
From the Ravens’ perspective, that would qualify as the worst-case scenario.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
Will Houston just take the QB that the Panthers do not? Peter King:
2. Houston. Texans have to pick a quarterback. Or do they?
We’re all operating under the belief the Texans will pick a quarterback that Carolina leaves for them. I’m 90 percent on board with that.
The Texans also pick 12th. With that pick and two first-round picks next year, is it impossible to think they’d take the cleanest prospect in this draft, Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson, at two and get their quarterback slightly lower, somewhere around the fourth pick or after? I think the Texans are going to go quarterback at two. But in the last few days, I’ve heard this about Houston GM Nick Caserio: Very conservative. If he doesn’t love a quarterback at two, he’s not going to force it. He’d rather take this year’s sure edge thing, Anderson, the way Detroit took Aidan Hutchinson with the second pick last year. Detroit got rewarded handsomely with a great rookie year from Hutchinson.
“It’s a stretch, but I could see Nick taking Anderson, then using his second [first-round pick] and trading back up to get his quarterback,” one league personnel man said.
Maybe. I bet Indianapolis, at four, and Seattle, at five, would be okay with moving to 12 if it meant adding the better of the two Houston first-rounders next year (Houston has its own one next year and Cleveland’s one). But I still believe it’s far more likely Houston stays at two and gives its fans the long-term quarterback the franchise has been seeking since its inception in 2002. Owner Cal McNair will certainly want the quarterback at number two, and Texans fans will be deflated if the loser of the Young/Stroud stakes in Carolina isn’t the pick at two.
More King:
Seeing some of the new coaches in their first setting in front of the national media is instructive. I thought Houston’s DeMeco Ryans was impressive in Phoenix. He’s engaging and thoughtful, an excellent communicator. You can tell why the Niners’ defensive players liked the guy so much. He talked about falling in love with coaching when helping out one spring at an Alabama high school, and how he got turned onto it by the simple act of seeing his players play better with good coaching. Ryans on Bryce Young was interesting: “I know there’s a lot of talking about his size. The guy’s done it at the highest level in college football and size hasn’t seemed to be a problem. I watched the tape. You see the kid play and you see how smart he is. You see the anticipation. You see the accuracy. You see how this guy is calm in critical moments. Size definitely isn’t one of the factors that pop up on tape.”
Houston went 3-13-1 in 2022. Their current win total over-under for 2023 is 5.5. Would you take the over?
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INDIANAPOLIS
Peter King on the Colts at #4:
4. Indianapolis. Colts are a mystery team right now.
Very big week for Indy. The Colts, who pick fourth and 35th in the top 50, are working out Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis. By Saturday, they should have their list of quarterbacks in order—and coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard should know if Richardson or Levis is worth selecting here.
The Colts are in a good but not great spot. After going the last five seasons with five different starting quarterbacks, they need to get off the QB-go-round and settle on one long-term—but if they don’t believe in Richardson or Levis, they can’t force it. There may be the option of trading down or picking Hendon Hooker (the Tennessee quarterback is coming off ACL surgery and is likely to miss most of 2023), which would mean Gardner Minshew playing to start the season in a year that’s pretty important for Ballard after four straight years without a playoff win.
That brings us to Lamar Jackson. After Jackson tweeted last week that he’d asked to be traded, there was speculation the Colts would be interested, in part because of the desperation of owner Jim Irsay. And if the guarantees weren’t stupid, I think the Colts would be interested. My bet is the Ravens would take the fourth pick in the draft, solely, for Jackson. But I can’t see the Colts getting involved with Jackson having the injury history of the last two years (34 percent of the Ravens’ offensive snaps missed in ’21 and ’22, with Jackson starting and finishing one of Baltimore’s 12 December/January games in the last two years) and wanting a fully guaranteed contract. Rampant speculation, some fueled by Jackson, is that Baltimore has offered a three-year pact fully guaranteed and it wasn’t good enough.
Re: a trade-down, it would help Ballard if Georgia’s Jalen Carter weren’t such a scarred prospect. Multiple teams would want to move up for Carter the player, but perhaps not Carter the person. So the Colts may not get a great offer at four—unless one of the QB-needy teams is dying to move up.
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JACKSONVILLE
Owner Shad Khan likes what he see with his team. Michael Baca of NFL.com:
The strides made during Jacksonville’s memorable 2022 campaign have Jaguars owner Shad Khan brimming with excitement.
In what was Doug Pederson’s first year as head coach, the revamped Jaguars persevered through a rough start to eventually claim the AFC South title, which befittingly set the table for a historic comeback win in the playoffs.
It saw the unmistakable growth of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who put up career-high numbers to earn his first Pro Bowl nod and provided an assuring outlook for Jacksonville at the league’s most demanding position. The success also came after general manager Trent Baalke signed several big-money free agents that all found success under Pederson, and much of last year’s playoff-caliber roster remains intact going into the follow-up season.
Because of the structure now in place, Khan expressed his belief that Jacksonville has what it takes to maintain that success in 2023 and beyond.
“The vibe I get (around this week’s meetings) is I think we’ve cracked the code,” Khan said, via the team’s website. “We have a great head coach, we have a great general manager, and we have a great quarterback.
“That’s the trifecta for success in the NFL.”
This wasn’t Khan’s first brush with success after purchasing the club in 2011. The Jaguars reached the AFC Championship Game in 2017, but Doug Marrone’s squad was unable to produce a winning record in any of the following three seasons. His replacement, Urban Meyer, was the splash hire Khan hoped would right the ship in 2021, but the decorated collegiate coach was fired after a 2-11 start.
Following such a tumultuous season, Khan credited Pederson’s “self-belief, belief in the team and belief in the process” that spurred a newfound confidence in Jacksonville.
“The players believed in each other,” Khan said. “They believed in the coaches and they believed they were destined to win.”
How Jaguars overcame 27-point deficit to beat Chargers 31-30 | Baldy’s Breakdowns
Winning seven of their last nine regular-season games, including a Week 18 triumph over the division rival Tennessee Titans to claim the AFC South, the Jaguars’ 2022 campaign took an even more dramatic turn in the playoffs.
Down 27-0 late in the first half of a wild-card clash against the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville scratched and clawed its way back toward a thrilling 31-30 victory. The comeback was the third-largest in NFL postseason history, trailing only Andrew Luck’s Colts defeating the Chiefs nine years ago (-28) and Frank Reich’s Bills ousting the Oilers 30 years prior (-32).
Khan believes that two-week stretch under the bright lights was especially critical for a franchise that was often absent both on the national stage and in late January.
“We hadn’t had a prime-time game in my ownership,” Khan said of the Week 18 showdown versus the Titans. “We hadn’t earned it. We didn’t deserve it. Here, we earned it. We deserve it. So, we get two in a row. Both of them are packed, including standing-room only tickets. Then to see the fans at both of the games hanging in. We’re down 27-0 and no one leaves.
“That shows really the enthusiasm, the belief the fans had. I know it made a huge difference for Trevor. He looked up and saw no one had left. There was a huge vote of confidence in him.”
Jacksonville ultimately fell to the eventual Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, but the Jaguars should return with great confidence in 2023 after that playoff run. With Lawrence entering a consecutive year under Pederson’s offensive system and a young defense gaining a wealth of experience, the elements are there for the Jaguars to sustain success the success that Khan has been longing for.
“I think it’s taken a while, but I’m glad it’s happening,” Khan said. “I’m glad for all the fans.”
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
S TAYLOR RAPP, once with the Rams, has joined the Bills. Christian Gonzales ofNFL.com:
After winning a Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills safety Taylor Rapp is hoping to repeat that journey with his new team.
With the opportunity to choose his next team in free agency, Rapp explained that Buffalo was the right fit for him.
“I think everyone in the free agency process is trying to find the right fit and right opportunity,” Rapp said Friday, via the team’s website. “This is a very special team, very special defense, very special back end, back seven, especially the guys that I will be joining in the room in Micah (Hyde) and Jordan (Poyer). They are obviously two great players, two former All-Pros and have had great careers. So, just a great opportunity to come in there and contribute in any way I can, just pick them apart and learn and soak up as much about the game as I can from those guys.”
Rapp was a second-round pick in the 2019 draft by the Rams out of Washington. He spent his first two seasons starting 15 games for the Rams. In 2021, Rapp started all 17 games for L.A. in the regular season and had a career-high four interceptions, helping the Rams lift the Lombardi Trophy behind a talented defense. Then, the safety continued to show flashes for a struggling Rams defense while starting another 16 games last season.
Rapp, 25, is looking at this year as an opportunity to learn more about the position behind Hyde and Poyer. This offseason, Poyer seemed to be on his way out of Buffalo but ultimately decided to re-sign and run it back with the Bills. Rapp explained how he’s looking forward to contributing to his new squad alongside the two Pro Bowlers.
“The two guys in the room who I’ll be learning from and kind of soaking up as much about the game as I can from in Micah and Jordan, those guys are notorious for their takeaways and turning the ball over,” Rapp said. “They’re just ball hawks, and I’m excited to be part of it.”
Buffalo adding Rapp marks the second consecutive offseason the team signed a former Ram. The Bills signed Von Miller last offseason. With Rapp now in Buffalo, the safety is looking forward to being back on the field with the All-Pro pass rusher this upcoming season, as well.
“He hit me up right away as I agreed to terms on the deal,” Rapp said. “So we spent some time in L.A. together when we won the Super Bowl in 2021. Von’s an awesome guy, and I’m excited to be on board with him.”
With the 2023 NFL Draft later this month, the Bills will look to add more talent to their roster. Buffalo holds six total picks heading into the draft.
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NEW ENGLAND
Peter King seems to have spent some time with Robert Kraft:
The Patriots are 25-26 since Tom Brady left the team, with zero playoff wins, and listening to Robert Kraft talk like Belichick—we care about performance, not individual records—I’m starting to wonder what happens to Belichick, who turns 71 in two weeks, if the Patriots sink to the bottom of the AFC East. It’s certainly possible, with Aaron Rodgers likely to enter the division and the Patriots clearly inferior to the Bills and Dolphins recently. Say the Patriots go 7-10 each of the next two years, and Belichick is five wins from passing Don Shula. WWKD? What will Kraft do? He may move on. If so, it would not surprise me to see Belichick coach another team for a couple of years.
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NEW YORK JETS
Garrett Podell of CBSSports.com thinks the Jets are circling around the wrong veteran quarterback.
The New York Jets are painstakingly DESPERATE to acquire a face-of-the franchise quarterback. They haven’t had a franchise passer since Joe Namath, who recorded the first 4,000-yard passing season in NFL history back in 1967. They haven’t had a quarterback throw for that many passing yards since. Following the Sacramento Kings clinching a spot in the NBA playoffs on Wednesday night, it’s Gang Green that now has the longest active playoff drought in North American professional sports — MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL — at 12 seasons. The Jets haven’t reached the postseason since the 2010 season when their head coach was Rex Ryan, their quarterback was Mark Sanchez, and their top-10 defense was led by Hall of Fame cornerback Darrelle Revis.
Naturally, New York has gone all out to acquire an experienced Pro Bowl passer this offseason since team owner Woody Johnson indicated in January that he was “absolutely” willing to pay up for a veteran quarterback to pair up with the Jets top-five scoring defense (18.6 points per game allowed, fourth-best in the NFL).
“We’ve got a cap of how much you can spend, but yeah,” Johnson said in January. “That’s [a veteran quarterback] kind of the missing piece. Defense was an unbelievable story, you saw, from last place to close to the top. If you can do the same thing on offense, it looks pretty good.”
That pursuit of an established quarterback has manifested itself in bending over backwards for four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. The Jets have hired former Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, signed former Green Bay wide receiver Allen Lazard to a four-year, $44 million contract, and it worked. After Rodgers met with the team at his home in California, he announced his intention to play for the Jets. However, the trade deal with the Packers is reportedly being held up because there are concerns on the Jets’ side about how much longer the 39-year-old Rodgers wants to play ball.
Given that concern, why don’t the Jets just pivot to another NFL MVP quarterback who is 13 years younger in 26-year-old Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson? He’s on the non-exclusive franchise tag, meaning New York can send him an offer sheet at any time now. If Jackson signs an offer sheet, Baltimore will have five days to match it or receive two first-round picks as compensation. The Ravens and Jets could also work out a trade, once Jackson is signed. Here’s what Jets general manager Joe Douglas said about a Jackson pursuit on Tuesday.
“First of all, Lamar Jackson is a fantastic player, but where we stand is, it would be disingenuous and negotiating in bad faith if we went down that path,” Douglas said. “We have our plan, we have our process and we’re sticking to that … We’re never going to operate in bad faith.”
Douglas is the general manger of an NFL team, specifically an NFL team that needs to make the playoffs this year as his job and head coach Robert Saleh’s job may be on the line if they don’t. His boss, team owner Woody Johnson, said as much Tuesday.
“I’m not the patient sort,” Johnson said. “We’re in the win business. We have to win now.”
Yet, Douglas is operating as if he’s the GM of a fantasy football team with an overly-sensitive group of college buddies. In most fantasy football leagues, other teams would be understanding of a team shifting to a different trade if it’s the better deal.
Should Douglas tire of going back and forth with Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst over Rodgers, which is unlikely to happen but just in case, here are a few reasons why getting into the Lamar Jackson business makes sense for the Jets both now and down the road.
1. Jackson fits the Jets’ team timeline in relation to the age of New York’s other top players
The vast majority of the New York Jets’ core group is under 30. All of their top three wide receivers as well as their starting tight end are younger than 29 years old in 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson (turns 23 on July 22), free agent signee Allen Lazard (turns 28 on Dec. 11), free agent signee Mecole Hardman (25), and tight end Tyler Conklin (turns 28 on July 30). Ditto for second-year running back Breece Hall (21), 2022 First-Team All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (turns 26 on Dec. 5), and 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year cornerback Sauce Gardner (turns 23 on Aug. 31).
Adding Rodgers to the Jets would be putting a two-year window on a core that could contend much longer with a more stable, in terms of years left to play in career, quarterback. Back in 2009, New York selected USC quarterback Mark Sanchez fifth overall in the draft, putting youth at the quarterback position while every other key position on the roster was predominantly filled by win-now veterans. New York reached consecutive AFC Championship games in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, but they haven’t made the playoffs since as their roster withered away around Sanchez, derailing his development. As result, Gang Green now has possession of the longest active postseason drought, 12 seasons.
Trading for Rodgers would put the Jets’ roster in the opposite position of those early 2010s Jets with a young cast and an aging quarterback, but after Rodgers leaves in a year or two, New York could find itself back in the same place. Acquiring 2019 unanimous MVP Jackson, who’s 26, would give Gang Green a quarterback on a similar career arc as the rest of its roster, putting the franchise in a better position to contend over the long haul.
2. The acquisition cost for Rodgers is going to be multiple picks and adding one of the richest contracts in the NFL. How about investing in a younger player at that price point?
Clearly, Rodgers isn’t a free agent as he has two years remaining on his three-year, $150 million contract extension he signed last offseason. That contract made Rodgers the first player in NFL history to have a contract with an average annual value of $50 million per year. Yet, the Jets are all-in to not only take on his historic contract but also surrender draft picks to the Packers via trade to take on a 39-year-old with a huge contract.
Signing Lamar Jackson off of his non-exclusive franchise tag requires crafting a contract the Baltimore Ravens won’t match — a deal with at least $231 million guaranteed, which would be one million more than what Deshaun Watson received on his Cleveland Browns contract extension — and then coming to terms with Baltimore on a trade package. Both processes involve taking on the richest contract in the NFL and surrendering early-round draft picks to do so. The difference: Jackson is 13 years younger than Rodgers. There’s plenty of ways to structure a contract for Jackson through signing bonuses, roster bonuses, and more to lower a cap hit on a massive contract like the one Jackson would command.
If the Jets are going to trade in a stockpile of their top picks and salary cap space for a quarterback, doing so for the one who will stick around longer is the way to go.
3. Jackson could make another leap in New York with the best pass-catching core of his career
One of the top concerns quarterback-needy teams have decreed when asked why they haven’t pursued Jackson is his play style. He’s a different kind of quarterback. Jackson is one of only six players in NFL history to have over 100 passing touchdowns (101) and over 4,000 rushing yards (4,437). He’s the fastest player to hit these bench marks by a whopping 31 games. His career rushing yards total of 4,437 is already the fifth-most by a quarterback in NFL history, and his total is also 1,230 MORE rushing yards through five seasons than any other quarterback all time.
100+ pass TD and 4,000+ rushing yards in NFL history
QB GAMES NEEDED TO HIT BENCHMARKS
Lamar Jackson 67
Randall Cunningham 98
Cam Newton 103
Michael Vick 103
Russell Wilson 129
Steve Young 161
Jackson has run as much as he has out of necessity, not because it’s his only path to success. Baltimore’s offense is centered around the run because of their refusal to invest significant money into their offense. The Ravens have spent a combined $262.7 million on the offensive side of the ball since 2019, when Jackson became their full-time starting quarterback. That’s the least amount of money spent on offense in the ENTIRE NFL in that span. Their wide receiver group has accounted for $47.2 million of that total since 2019, the second-least amount of money spent on wide receivers in that span ahead of only the Pittsburgh Steelers’ league-low $34.2 million.
Naturally, Ravens wide receivers have ranked dead last in receiving yards per game in three of the last four seasons since 2019. Tight end Mark Andrews, Jackson’s top target, has 3,761 receiving yards since 2019, the second-most among tight ends behind only Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s 5,108 receiving yards in that span. The only other Raven with over 1,000 receiving yards from 2019-2022 is wide receiver Marquise Brown (2,361), the team’s first-round pick in 2019. He was traded to the Arizona Cardinals last offseason in exchange for a first-round pick that eventually turned into center Tyler Linderbaum.
Ravens receiving yards per game by WRs
SEASON RECEIVING YPG NFL RANK
2022 89.2 Last
2021 142.4 19th
2020 108.1 Last
2019 88.7 Last
That lack of investment has also led to a lack of continuity at the Ravens’ offensive skill positions, further capping Jackson’s growth as a passer. Since 2018, when Jackson was drafted, their most common combination of five skill players was running back J.K. Dobbins, wide receiver Marquise Brown, wide receiver Miles Boykin, wide receiver Willie Snead and tight end Mark Andrews. They played a measly 97 snaps together. That ranks 120th among all NFL team skill player combos in that span.
However, the Jets come fully-loaded at running back and receiver with Garrett Wilson in his second season, receiver Allen Lazard locked down on a four-year, $44 million contract, wide receiver Mecole Hardman representing perhaps the fastest player Jackson has played with, and running back Breece Hall entering his second season. That group is a bunch of young, explosive playmakers who will mostly be around for multiple seasons. Jackson combined with that group could make another giant leap that could thrust him right back into the NFL MVP conversation for years to come. Those playmakers could also lead to Jackson dialing back on his rushing attempts, which would also extend the length of his career.
4. Aaron Rodgers had arguably the worst season of his career in 2022 while playing with a broken thumb
The Jets acquiring Rodgers now is not the same as acquiring Rodgers a year ago. In the 2022 offseason, Rodgers was coming off consecutive, healthy NFL MVP campaigns. This offseason, Rodgers is coming off arguably the worst statistical season of his career with his personal-low in passer rating (91.1) while playing through a broken thumb on his throwing hand. He suffered the injury on the final play of the Packers’ Week 4 loss against the Giants in London, when he was smacked getting ready to uncork a Hail Mary heave.
Aaron Rodgers’ 2022 stats
CAREER RANK AS STARTER
Pass 3,695 3rd-worst
Pass Yards/Attempt 6.8 2nd-worst
Passing Touchdowns 26 T-4th-worst
Interceptions 12 2nd-worst
Passer Rating 91.1 Worst
As Rodgers enters age 40 during the 2023 season, the odds of him taking another shot in the pocket and suffering a season-altering injury increase exponentially. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has only missed 10 career games because of injury. Sure, both have come in the last two seasons, but from 2018-2020, Jackson missed zero games due to injury across his first three seasons. If the Jets take a step back and think about it, emptying out their piggy bank for a quarterback who has only taken four full seasons of NFL beatings in Jackson is a safer bet than doing so for a passer who has taken 15 full seasons of NFL hits in Rodgers.
As of this moment, the Jets and Packers have not come to terms on an Aaron Rodgers trade. It’s not too late to turn back and offer Lamar Jackson a contract with over $230 million in guaranteed money that the Ravens wouldn’t match. Acquiring Jackson would prop the Jets’ window of contention open for at least four or five seasons, if not more. Acquiring Rodgers would do so for two or three seasons, if that. At one point this offseason, Rodgers was had a mindset of being “90 percent retired.” Doing the right thing can sometimes be difficult, but it’s always worth it. Trading for Lamar Jackson instead of Aaron Rodgers is the right thing for the Jets.
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THIS AND THAT
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BROADCAST NEWS
Peter King tells the NFL owners that they must vote to stop The Commish and his Amazon backers:
On Tuesday night, at the Phoenix restaurant Tomaso’s, two groups were having dinner in large rooms—the Giants and the Steelers. The Giants finished first and a few of their people stopped by to say hi to the Pittsburgh contingent, which included Roger Goodell at owner Art Rooney II’s table. When Giants co-owner John Mara saw Goodell, he smiled wryly and said, “I should get out of here.”
All’s fair in love and NFL debates. Mara, maybe three hours earlier in a session of owners and top execs, was the strongest in arguing against the NFL’s proposal to make Thursday night games in weeks 14 through 17 on Amazon eligible to move to Sunday, with a corresponding trade of a more attractive game into the Thursday night slot. Mara, and others, were surprised when word about this proposal leaked to Sports Business Journal just days before the annual meeting in Phoenix. Mara’s strident complaint: It’s unfair to fans who make plans to travel to games to have them changed 15 days prior, it’s unfair to fans and teams planning on a 1 p.m. Sunday game to have the game played three days earlier on a weeknight at 8:20, and there’s no data on short-week Thursday games to suggest they can be interchangeable without consequences.
The Giants, Jets, Chicago and Green Bay opposed the flex. For Green Bay, a ton of fans both follow them on the road and make bucket-list pilgrimages to Lambeau Field for games, and the Packers felt it unfair to have potentially thousands of fans be stuck with travel issues should a game be moved from Sunday to Thursday, or vice versa. Carolina and Denver abstained. With 24 votes needed for passage, the vote was 22 to 8 with the two abstentions. The NFL will arm-twist, most likely, prior to the next league session in late May, and unless the anti forces can muster some momentum, it’s likely the measure will pass then.
Post-meeting, Mara said: “At some point, can we please give some consideration to the people who are coming to our games? People make plans to go to these games weeks and months in advance. And 15 days ahead of time to say, ‘Sorry, folks, that game you were planning on taking your kids to Sunday at 1, now it’s on Thursday night’? What are we thinking about?”
The NFL clearly is thinking of Amazon as a long-term partner, and streaming as a long-term way of getting more money in future media deals. What’s interesting here is that ESPN had the Monday night games for years before the league acceded—this year, finally—to give ESPN a minimal number of possible flex games. Amazon’s been a partner for one year, and the league bends over backwards for the streaming service after some weak late-season ratings on Thursday games.
Readers reached out to me about it, outraged. I spoke to Tim Thompson, the Cowboys fan from Nova Scotia. To get to an NFL game, he drives 90 minutes to the airport in Halifax, Nova Scotia (*in the far eastern part of Canada), flies two hours to Toronto, then connects for a four-hour (or longer) flight to see the Cowboys play.
Thompson heard Mara’s ire. “Those are basically my words,” he said. “I would be frightened to book anything now. It’s 100 percent a slight to fans like me. Going to a game early in the season would be a consideration now, but I’m not happy about it.”
If owners really appreciate the fans who come to the games, they’ll vote no in May. A yes vote for Thursday flex is a vote for Jeff Bezos over the people who truly love their teams.
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2023 DRAFT
Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com decides if each team should trade up (we give you his opinions on the first 10):
1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI)
What they should do: Stay put.
Well, this pick already has been traded. There’s not much logic in a team trading up for the No. 1 pick and then moving back down, but the Panthers have insisted they moved up without a specific player in mind. If you’re skeptical of that claim, join the club, which is why I have them staying put here.
Let’s take what the Panthers have suggested at face value. We can safely say that they moved up for a quarterback. If they were willing to settle for the third-best quarterback in this class, they should have been able to offer a lesser package to the Cardinals (to move up from No. 9 to No. 3) than the one they sent to the Bears. It seems plausible Carolina could be open to one of two quarterbacks, which would mean a move down to the No. 2 pick.
How much would the Texans really be willing to give to undo the Miracle of Lovie Smith and get their choice of quarterbacks at No. 1? And how much would the Panthers want to pass up that choice? Carolina could try to squeeze Houston for the 33rd pick, which is one of the most valuable selections in the entire draft after accounting for cost. That deal might look great by most (advanced) draft value charts, but if the Texans end up landing the best quarterback by moving up, Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer wouldn’t hear the end of it for the rest of his career.
I don’t think the Panthers realistically should or will trade down, but, well, they can’t trade up.
2. Houston Texans
What they should do: Trade up.
The Texans have no reason to move down given where they stand, their need for a quarterback and all the teams that want signal-callers lurking below them. If there’s a quarterback they truly love and believe the Panthers would take him at No. 1, they could consider trading up.
Only they know how much they value one quarterback in this class over the others, but that confidence isn’t always rewarded. We saw a team in 2017 move up one spot in the top three, when the Bears sent two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder to the 49ers to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 and grab Mitch Trubisky. In that scenario, Chicago was trading up to prevent San Francisco from dealing the pick to another team, which could then have drafted Trubisky.
It didn’t go so well. The No. 3 selection was used on defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, though the midround picks general manager John Lynch acquired produced a pair of future superstars. The 49ers drafted linebacker Fred Warner and traded one of the other selections to the Saints, who took running back Alvin Kamara. The Bears could have just stayed put, held on to the picks and drafted Patrick Mahomes. Drafting is hard!
3. Arizona Cardinals
What they should do: Trade down.
There might not be a more obvious spot to trade down in this draft than the Cardinals. Any team that wants the third-best quarterback in the class will want to move ahead of the Colts at No. 4, so new general manager Monti Ossenfort should field reasonable offers for this selection over the next few weeks. At the very least, Arizona should be able to extract something from the Colts to move up one spot, as the 49ers did from the Bears.
Drafting a player who projects as a star at a critical position isn’t the worst thing in the world, so I wouldn’t fault Arizona for taking edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) if no trade offer arises. The Cardinals aren’t one player away from being competitive, however. If Ossenfort can extract a future first-round pick from a team in the top 12 — maybe the Raiders (No. 7) or Falcons (No. 8)? — it likely would be worth moving down. Arizona should still be able to land a building block in 2023 while adding a second possible top-10 pick in 2024.
4. Indianapolis Colts
What they should do: Trade up.
The Colts have to be hoping the Cardinals don’t get any trade interest and take Anderson, because they don’t want to see a third quarterback drafted before them. They’re in a no man’s land, as they can’t move down and expect to land the quarterback prospect they’ve needed since Andrew Luck retired unless they want to take a shot on Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) outside of Round 1.
Indianapolis won’t be able to move up to Nos. 1 or 2 since those teams won’t want to be stuck drafting what could be the fourth-ranked quarterback in this class. The Cardinals aren’t going to give them the No. 3 pick unless they don’t field any significant interest, at which point they would just draft Anderson anyway.
In the Colts’ dream scenario, the Panthers draft C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), the Texans balk on the size of Bryce Young (Alabama) and take Anthony Richardson (Florida) or Will Levis (Kentucky), the Cardinals take Anderson, and Young is available at No. 4. After a nightmarish 2022 season, the Colts might feel like they deserve a ray of sunshine or two.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)
What they should do: Trade down.
If the Seahawks plan to draft a quarterback, they could consider trading up to get ahead of the Colts. As NFL.com‘s Gregg Rosenthal pointed out, though, they re-signed Geno Smith and gave Drew Lock $4 million guaranteed to be Smith’s backup. It’s not out of the question Seattle drafts a passer — Richardson? — and installs him as the No. 3 option, but the Lock signing might also be an indication the organization doesn’t like the top quarterbacks, no matter how many pictures it takes with them.
Let’s say the Seahawks are not drafting a quarterback. We know general manager John Schneider typically prefers to trade down, both from his lineage of working underneath late general manager Ted Thompson and more than a decade of his own work in Seattle. When he has traded within the first two rounds of the draft since 2010, 14 of his 17 deals have been trades down. Schneider has been aggressive in trading picks in those rounds for veteran players, but it’s difficult to imagine him dealing this selection for somebody already in the league.
Seattle typically doesn’t draft this high, so this might be a chance to add someone at a key position such as Anderson if four quarterbacks come off the board to start the draft. It’s typically more valuable to move down and add more premium selections if you’re offered first- and second-round picks as part of a deal, though. If the Seahawks can land a future first-rounder from the Titans (No. 11) or Commanders (No. 16) as part of a trade up for a quarterback, Schneider should be amenable to moving back.
6. Detroit Lions (from LAR)
What they should do: Stay put.
The Lions seem comfortable moving forward with Jared Goff as their quarterback after his excellent second half of the 2022 season. Goff has two years left on his deal, so the team could use the first of its two Round 1 selections on a quarterback to eventually replace him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the 28-year-old Goff instead landed a contract extension this offseason.
After ranking 32nd in pass defense QBR a year ago, Detroit addressed its secondary by signing Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency. Aidan Hutchinson, the No. 2 overall pick last year, looked promising as a rookie, but staying put here would give the franchise the opportunity to add one of the other top defensive linemen, Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Jalen Carter (Georgia). Carter is considered one of the most talented prospects in this class, but he recently pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing for his alleged role in a Jan. 15 car wreck.
Unless the Lions are blown away by an offer, it would make sense for them to address their D-line here.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
What they should do: Trade down.
The Raiders desperately need draft capital. They’re missing an entire generation of homegrown talent from their drafts between 2013 and 2020, a period in which just three of their 29 selections within the top 100 are still on the roster. (Just two are starters — running back Josh Jacobs and offensive tackle Kolton Miller.) Coach Josh McDaniels arrived in town and immediately dealt his first- and second-round picks in last year’s draft for Davante Adams, adding a star wide receiver but depriving the Raiders of the cost-controlled starters they need to rebuild the roster.
Vegas has an extra pick at the bottom of the third round in this draft after trading Darren Waller to the Giants, but this organization needs to add extra selections. It could stand to add a cornerback such as Christian Gonzalez (Oregon) or one of the defensive linemen, but so could the Falcons, Bears and Eagles behind them in the top 10. Every top-100 pick the Raiders can add for depth on their roster would be valuable.
8. Atlanta Falcons
What they should do: Stay put.
With their cap problems behind them, the Falcons have been aggressive in free agency this offseason, adding defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata and safety Jessie Bates to a long-woeful defense. Coach Arthur Smith appears to be confident in Desmond Ridder as the team’s starting quarterback in 2023, even if his justification curiously starts by quoting Ridder’s record and success in college. The Falcons don’t appear to be in the Lamar Jackson discussion, and it would be a surprise if they moved up for another young quarterback before seeing more out of Ridder.
Edge rusher and cornerback are still weaknesses for this team, and there should be options on the board in this range for Atlanta. Adding another player to the mix for new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen would make sense.
9. Chicago Bears (from CAR)
What they should do: Stay put.
The Bears already traded out of the No. 1 overall pick, landing wide receiver DJ Moore and a bevy of draft picks from the Panthers in the process. Great! Even Bears fans would admit they’re not one young player away in their rebuild, so while this draft is going to be critical in general manager Ryan Poles’ developmental plan, it’s not the final chapter of the book. Chicago should be far more open to trading down from this pick than trading up.
The only issue is the premium positions the team needs to land at some point during this process are left tackle and edge rusher, and there could be options for it on the board here. Rookie fifth-rounder Braxton Jones battled gamely at left tackle a year ago, but he might profile best as a right tackle at this level. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has tackles Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State) and Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) coming off the board at Nos. 9 and 10 in his most recent mock draft, and Poles likely would love to come out of this draft with one of those linemen to protect quarterback Justin Fields.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)
What they should do: Trade down.
Howie Roseman is one of the most analytically inclined general managers in the league, so the Eagles are always going to lean toward trading down. When Roseman has moved up in the past in the first round, it usually has been small moves to get ahead of a team, as he did for offensive tackle Andre Dillard in 2019 and defensive tackle Jordan Davis in 2022. His biggest deal came in 2016, when he moved up from No. 8 to No. 2 for then-quarterback of the future Carson Wentz.
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