Gil Brandt, the Hall of Famer, writing at NFL.com identifies 7 teams that MUST ACE THE DRAFT:

Every team wants to do well in every draft, but the event usually means more to some franchises than it does to others. Circumstances vary each year — some organizations have made a conscious choice to focus on prospects over free agents, others have generally understocked rosters or opportunities to land key franchise building blocks — but various teams have a lot riding on this particular offseason function.

Below are the seven teams who most need to succeed at the 2021 NFL Draft:

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars

First-round picks in 2021: Nos. 1 and 25

Total picks: 10

Here’s a list of players drafted by the Jaguars with a top-10 pick between 2011 and ’17:

QB Blaine Gabbert (No. 10 overall in 2011)

WR Justin Blackmon (No. 5 overall in 2012)

OL Luke Joeckel (No. 2 overall in 2013)

QB Blake Bortles (No. 3 overall in 2014)

DE Dante Fowler Jr. (No. 3 overall in 2015)

CB Jalen Ramsey (No. 5 overall in 2016)

RB Leonard Fournette (No. 4 overall in 2017)

None of them remain on the team, and — with the exception of Ramsey — all were disappointments during their time on Florida’s First Coast. I think the Jags will finally break this run of bad luck when they take Trevor Lawrence first overall this year. Still, with the number of holes to fill on this roster, the Jags must do a better job with every pick here than they have in the recent past if they are to construct a solid foundation for new head coach Urban Meyer.

2 – San Francisco 49ers

First-round pick in 2021: No. 3

Total picks in 2021 NFL Draft: 9

Barring an absolute shocker, the 49ers will be selecting a quarterback at No. 3 overall after climbing nine spots in a trade with Miami. When choosing the signal-caller who will succeed/replace Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco MUST get it right, seeing as how the team doesn’t have a first-round choice in 2022 or ’23 as a result of the compensation given to the Dolphins in the move up. So while this team is still just one season removed from reaching the Super Bowl, and the roster was good enough even before free agency for me to name them as the likeliest group to go from worst to first next season, this draft is shaping up as a monumental one for Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. Beyond quarterback, it would also be good to add in the secondary, along the defensive line and at guard.

3 – New York Jets

First-round picks in 2021: Nos. 2 and 23

Total picks: 9

Since being hired during the summer of 2019, after the Jets had already shaped their roster for that season, general manager Joe Douglas has spent much of his time cleaning up the mess left behind by his predecessor. Unfortunately, not much progress has been made so far, thanks in part to an underwhelming 2020, in terms of personnel acquisition. So even after upgrading at receiver (with Corey Davis) and on the defensive line (with Sheldon Rankins and Carl Lawson) in free agency this year, Douglas still has plenty of work remaining, including along the offensive line. While rookie LT Mekhi Becton showed great promise in Year 1, the Jets’ O-line ranked 29th on Pro Football Focus’ year-end list. Douglas will also need to find depth across the board. Of course, the biggest question of all is how to handle the No. 2 overall pick. Will he stick with Sam Darnold at quarterback or link his fate to rookie Zach Wilson?

4 – Chicago Bears

First-round pick in 2021: No. 20

Total picks: 8

The seats under GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy can’t get any hotter coming off a second consecutive 8-8 season. Things would get a little cooler for the pair if the Bears could find a potential franchise quarterback in the draft to develop behind veteran stopgap Andy Dalton. Let’s not forget the Bears also need help at cornerback after releasing Kyle Fuller, and adding along the defensive line is imperative, too. Which brings us to Chicago’s first overall pick. On one hand, the fact that it is currently set at No. 20 will make finding that job-saving QB a considerable challenge. On the other hand, this will be the Bears’ first first-round choice in three years, following 2018’s trade for Khalil Mack. One player who might be worth exploring is Caleb Farley, who I think has the potential to be the best corner in this class.

5 – New England Patriots

First-round picks in 2021: No. 15

Total picks in 2021 NFL Draft: 10

The end of the Tom Brady era last year played a huge part in the Patriots missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. I know the team’s perpetual success under Brady and Bill Belichick, along with a penchant for trading down, led to them routinely drafting lower in recent years. In fact, if New England stays at No. 15, this will be the highest pick the team has made since just before that ill-fated 2008 season, when the Pats selected Jerod Mayo 10th overall. But they’ve been their own worst enemy, as well, in recent drafts; perhaps their most accomplished draftee over the past two years is punter Jake Bailey, a 2019 fifth-rounder who was first-team All-Pro last season. Let’s see if Dave Ziegler — promoted to replace Nick Caserio, who left for the Texans, as New England’s personnel chief — can help further improve a team forced to embark on a heavy free-agent spending spree to fill roster holes. (It doesn’t help that New England’s third-round pick was taken away this year as a consequence for filming the Bengals’ sideline in 2019.)

6 – Philadelphia Eagles

First-round pick in 2021: No. 12

Total picks in 2021 NFL Draft: 11

Eagles GM Howie Roseman is a realist — he seems to be well aware that his roster is past its 2017 peak. Philadelphia’s trade down with Miami in this year’s draft — which netted an extra first-rounder in 2022 — also suggests he knows the rebuilding work won’t all be done this year. If Carson Wentz hits his play-time incentives with the Colts, the 2022 choice Philly acquired from Indy in exchange for the QB should become a first-rounder, as well, giving the Eagles plenty of ammunition to secure a quarterback if things don’t work out with Jalen Hurts this season.

That said, it would make sense this April to do as much as possible to help Hurts succeed — and coming off a season in which Philadelphia receivers ranked 28th in the NFL in catches and 29th in receiving yards, with stalwart tight end Zach Ertz likely headed out of town, it will be crucial to find better playmakers in the draft. That, unfortunately, has been difficult for this team, which must break a recent trend of whiffing on receiver prospects (like Nelson Agholor, who had his best pro season after leaving Philly, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who has 14 catches and 254 receiving yards in his career thus far; the jury is still out on Jalen Reagor after an injury-marred rookie campaign). Philadelphia should also think about finding someone to develop behind veteran corner Darius Slay.

7 – Houston Texans

First-round pick in 2021: None

Total picks: 8

Setting aside quarterback Deshaun Watson’s legal situation, Nick Caserio undertook a monster challenge when he became Houston’s general manager. The Texans have one of the worst rosters in the NFL and a glaring dearth of draft capital — they currently have just ONE selection within the top 100 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft (No. 67 overall). And while I remain hopeful that 2019 fifth-rounder Charles Omenihu will continue to develop at defensive end, the fact remains that Houston hasn’t drafted a truly impactful non-specialist on Day 3 since center Ben Jones in 2012. This is one area where the team must make serious improvements — ideally, that will start with finding a couple of potential keepers this year.

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com read the comments from QB AARON RODGERS just like we did.  And he thinks there was a message for the Packers contained therein.

Aaron Rodgers is extremely smart. Aaron Rodgers is extremely self-aware. And Aaron Rodgers is extremely strategic.

He would not have done a pre-airing victory lap regarding his two-week stint as a Jeopardy (I know there’s an exclamation point; I choose not to use it) guest host, touting the extent to which he crushed the assignment, if he didn’t realize to his core that he, indeed, crushed the assignment.

Surely, the powers-that-be are eyeballing the various guests hosts as potential permanent hosts. If Rodgers did what he appears to have done (we’ll find out Monday for sure) as the guest host of the show, what happens if they offer him the full-time gig?

The possibility undoubtedly has crossed his mind. And who would fault him for walking away from a job that has a handful of remaining years for something that he could do for 20, 30, 40 years or more, at eight-figure annual salaries? With Rodgers repeatedly making it clear that he has no interest in becoming an NFL analyst after his football career ends, the best path to big money post-playing would come from pouncing on an opportunity like Jeopardy, even if the timing isn’t entirely perfect.

For Rodgers, the problem is that the window may only ever open once. Whoever gets the job may hold the job for so long that Rodgers never gets another chance.

It’s no accident or coincidence that Rodgers has made the rounds in recent days to hype his appearance. Apart from being extremely smart, self-aware, and strategic, he’s intensely competitive. With Dr. Mehmet Oz handling the two weeks before Rodgers, Rodgers wants the ratings to spike once he takes over — and they will.

Rodgers also is a master of sending messages to his current employer while also retaining the ability to say, “I’m not sending any messages.” And there’s definitely a message for Packers CEO Mark Murphy in Rodgers’ belief that he nailed it on Jeopardy.

Count Murphy among the millions who’ll tune in next week, with an eye toward analyzing every word, movement, and facial expression from Rodgers in order to assess whether he truly has the chops to win the ultimate Jeopardy prize — an off-ramp from football that gives Rodgers a major platform (and the millions of dollars that will go along with it) for decades to come.

How did the money made by the late Alex Trebek compare with what an NFL QB makes?  We found this on-line that may contain information of interest (or it could be wild speculation).

Alex Trebeck, 79, is said to be paid $10 million annually to host Jeopardy! Five shows are taped per day, two days per week every two weeks, for a total of 46 tape days over 23 non-consecutive weeks. A total of 230 shows are produced each year, including tournaments. That works out to $43,478.26 per episode or $217,391.30 per tape day, not counting preparation or rehearsal time on additional days.

If that schedule were tweaked a bit, could Rodgers do Jeopardy! and play football. Build up a backlog of episodes in the summer and then tape some on selected Mondays and Tuesdays during the season?

NFC EAST

DALLAS

This rumor at Heavy.com would have you believe that Florida TE KYLE PITTS won’t get past the Cowboys at #10:

Yet again, through no fault of his own, Michael Gallup finds himself at the center of the NFL rumor mill.

With 24 days until the 2021 draft, there is now speculation the Dallas Cowboys will select Florida tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 10 overall pick and subsequently trade the walk-year wide receiver — the would-be odd man out of the offensive pecking order.

The idea was initially broached by Jess Haynie of Inside The Star, who believes Dallas has hedged and could continue to hedge against Gallup’s potential departure next offseason.

“Part of the assumed logic in Dallas picking Lamb last year was to prepare for Michael’s potential departure. Lamb could move into the starting lineup with multiple years left on his rookie deal, keeping the finances in balance,” Haynie wrote on April 1.

“This is where Kyle Pitts, a potential generational talent at tight end, could quickly become more than just a luxury. As soon as 2022, Pitts could replace Gallup as a top-three receiving threat for the Cowboys.”

But, yet again, the media-made creation was debunked as  … just that.

“We’ve seen speculation that Dallas would draft tight end Kyle Pitts in the No. 10 slot in the upcoming NFL Draft and then trade Gallup, because who needs all those pass-catchers? But that idea comes from the media, not from here inside The Star. (It also ignores the distinct possibility that Pitts is selected by the Bengals at No. 5, five spots ahead of Dallas.)” Mike Fisher of CowboysSI.com wrote Sunday.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers want someone – the Patriots, the Panthers, the WFT – someone to give them a first round pick for QB JIMMY GARAPPOLO.  At least per Nick Shook of NFL.com, that’s the price at the moment:

There’s no rush to get the new guy, whomever it ends up being, which means the 49ers are in the catbird’s seat when it comes to the position. They can roll with Garoppolo as the starter and leave their first-round pick on the bench to learn — and they can ask for the highest compensation for Garoppolo when receiving calls from interested suitors.

The asking price for Garoppolo is a first-round pick, NFL Network’s Mike Giardi reported.

That return would be larger than what San Francisco gave up (a 2018 second-round pick) to pry Garoppolo from New England’s grasp back in 2017, and would be a maximization of any potential return on investment.

The 49ers setting a first-round price for Garoppolo comes a week removed from them moving up from No. 12 to No. 3 in the 2021 NFL Draft in a trade with the Dolphins. Amid the trade frenzy, though, NFL Network’s Steve Wyche reported that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan told him Garoppolo remained in the team’s plans. Shanahan and GM John Lynch confirmed as much when speaking with reporters earlier this week.

San Francisco doesn’t have to trade Garoppolo any time soon, if at all. The quarterback is under contract through 2022, carries a minimal dead cap hit and is still San Francisco’s starter. The 49ers have wisely adopted a public stance that includes Garoppolo as their starter and in the team’s plans, too, preventing any loss of leverage on their part.

Over time, that could change, but with their partnership secured for only one more year, the timing is ideal for San Francisco to negotiate for the best possible return. Only the most desperate teams should even consider picking up the phone to dial the 49ers, it seems.

SEATTLE

The Seahawks waived DL JARREN REED after he wouldn’t play ball with their restructuring scheme.  Now, he’s $2 million poorer in KC.  Brady Henderson ofESPN.com with how it went down.

Defensive tackle Jarran Reed’s refusal to move money around in his contract for salary-cap purposes led to his release last week by the Seattle Seahawks, a source confirmed ESPN.

Reed has since signed a one-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. It includes $5 million guaranteed and up to $7 million in total, according to the NFL Network.

He was set to make nearly $9 million with the Seahawks in 2021.

Seattle wanted Reed to agree to what’s known as a simple restructure that would have paid him the same amount and given the Seahawks immediate cap relief.

The proposed restructure would have reduced Reed’s base salary to the veteran minimum of just under $1 million, but he would have received the rest of his compensation in the form of an $8 million signing bonus. Teams commonly use this type of conversion to free up cap space by deferring cap charges to later years.

Because Reed was entering the last year of his contract, the Seahawks would have added one or two “dummy years” to spread out the cap charges from his new signing bonus. But whatever number of artificial years were added to the deal would have automatically voided after this coming season, meaning Reed would still have been a free agent as scheduled.

Reed’s agent was in favor of the restructure, according to a source. But Reed was insistent on getting an actual extension from the Seahawks, believing he had earned one after becoming a prominent piece of their defense. When the Seahawks declined, Reed asked if they would promise him a new deal down the road, which they did not.

The Seahawks released Reed after they were unable to trade him. That move saved Seattle nearly $9 million in cash and cap space while leaving behind $5 million in dead money. They needed those savings to re-sign defensive end Carlos Dunlap. Seattle also brought back defensive tackle Al Woods as an option to replace Reed on early downs.

Refusing the restructure meant Reed hit the market well into the second week of free agency, by which point teams have generally done most of their offseason spending.

Reed, 28, has been a full-time starter since 2017, the year after Seattle chose him in the second round out of Alabama. He was known primarily as a run-stuffer his first two seasons, but then broke out for 10.5 sacks in 2018. He began the 2019 season by serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal-conduct policy and finished the year with two sacks in 10 games.

The Seahawks gave Reed the two-year, $23 million deal last March, betting that he could recapture his 2018 form. He had something of a bounce-back season with 6.5 sacks in 16 games but was set to count nearly $14 million against the cap, a number that the Seahawks wanted to lower with the restructure.

In Kansas City, Reed will reunite with former Seahawks teammate Frank Clark. Reed set a career-high with 10.5 sacks in 2018, the last season he and Clark played together on Seattle’s defensive line.

NFL Network first reported Reed’s refusal to restructure his contract.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Mike Reiss of ESPN.com on the Patriots, quarterbacks and the draft.

1. QB checkpoints: Timing and leverage are often two of the most important factors for striking deals, and they are at the heart of the Patriots’ current quarterback decision-making approach.

Coach Bill Belichick is sometimes fond of saying “Last time I checked, our first game isn’t until September.” That basically explains why the Patriots are pressing the QB “pause” button at the moment, with owner Robert Kraft expressing support for Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham in 2021, while also acknowledging the team has to solidify the position long-term.

Here are three key checkpoints to watch:

Draft (April 29-May 1): Selecting at No. 15 in the 2021 NFL draft, the Patriots likely won’t be in position to land a top prospect unless they move up. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay has them jumping to No. 11 to pick Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields in his most recent mock draft. But the QB class goes beyond the top five of Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Fields. And if the Patriots follow a path similar to what they did in 2014 with Jimmy Garoppolo (second round, No. 62) — with Florida’s Kyle Trask, Stanford’s Davis Mills, Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond and Wake Forest’s Jamie Newman among the second-tier options — they could go into 2021 with Newton/Stidham/prospect, hold firm, and see where the chips fall.

End of organized team activities/start of training camp (mid June/late July): At this point, the San Francisco 49ers would have a better grasp of their comfort level with their No. 3 overall pick, and if it might be realistic to turn the team over to him. If so, that could lessen their asking price for Garoppolo. In turn, the Patriots will also have more information on Newton and Stidham from OTAs to gauge if their offseason analysis that both could be the answer in 2021 has merit. That intelligence would dictate how far the Patriots might be willing to extend in a potential trade offer.

Opening weekend (early September): Once Garoppolo is on the 49ers’ roster for the first game of the season, his $24.1 million salary is guaranteed. That’s a true leverage point to see how committed the 49ers are to carrying both Garoppolo and the No. 3 pick for the 2021 season — especially when considering future extensions for defensive cornerstones Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. It also assumes Garoppolo doesn’t force his exit before that point, which as of now, doesn’t seem to be part of his thinking. This might be late from a Patriots standpoint, but given Garoppolo’s background in the system, still tenable for a player they view favorably.

2. Culture starts at top: Kraft’s conference call with reporters Wednesday, as part of his annual Q&A at the time of the NFL’s owners meetings, struck a chord from the standpoint the culture of every organization starts at the top. Kraft was direct, passionate and even critical at times (e.g. the team’s recent draft results). Some organizations might accept a 7-9 season as part of the ebb and flow of an NFL structure that is geared toward everyone being 8-8. Kraft, who has spent an NFL-record $165 million in guaranteed money since free-agent negotiating began March 15, made it clear the Patriots do not.

3. McDaniels and QBs: It wasn’t a coincidence Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was present at Alabama’s pro day Tuesday, followed by Florida’s on Wednesday. It gave him a close-up look at Jones, followed by Trask, and highlighted how he will be a leading voice as the Patriots consider draft options. While it now seems clear Jones won’t be available for New England, there is still value in getting the most thorough scouting report to provide a comparison point to other QB prospects.

4. Patriots’ ‘different’ approach: One popular follow-up question from Kraft’s comments was about his belief he has seen a “different approach” with the team’s draft-based scouting. What exactly is different? Other than Dave Ziegler earning a promotion following Nick Caserio’s departure to become Texans GM, the staff essentially remains intact, with Ziegler having previously mentioned Eliot Wolf, Steve Cargile and Brian Smith among those playing notable roles in the transition. Matt Patricia is also making his presence felt. Perhaps that’s what Kraft meant when he said of free agency: “This was a team effort on the part of our personnel department. There’s three or four [who were] very active with Bill. They were so thorough.”

5. Stability counts: While Kraft’s remarks on the team’s recent drafts could be viewed as a challenge of sorts to Belichick, not to be overlooked was something Kraft also said about how much he values their extended time together. “He’s been with us for 21 years. He’s maybe the best ever to do it. I don’t think [stability and] continuity in coaches in the modern era has been stable. I’m pretty happy with our working relationship.” Belichick is easily the NFL’s longest-tenured head coach followed by Sean Payton (Saints, 15 years) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers, 14 years).

6. Times change: In a reminder of how times change, former Patriots vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli was reflecting on the team’s 2001 free-agent splurge on “The Peter King Podcast,” noting how it was 23 players signed for a total of $2.5 million in signing bonus money, and there were no private planes and limos on the recruiting visits. Those prices don’t exist today, and the in-person visits are mostly a thing of the past.

7. Meritocracy returns: One other point Pioli made about the early years that has relevance today was when he said: “The New England Patriot model was really meritocracy. The best players were going to play.” Because of a decline in overall talent in recent years, there wasn’t as much internal competition at various positions to allow that type of meritocracy to truly manifest itself. Now, with an infusion of free-agent talent across several positions, and what the Patriots hope will be a productive draft, the thinking among some in the organization is that they can get back to that.

THIS AND THAT

17 GAMES IN 19 WEEKS

About a decade ago, when the NFL first started proposing an 18-game season, the DB proposed a plan, modestly called the DB Plan, which called for 17 games.

One key element of that plan was surprisingly not needed to get player approval.

The idea was that the NFL would go to the players and say, we get one more game, you get a second week of byes to rest your weary bones.  The players get paid 17/16^th of what they made.  The NFL gets 19/17^th the TV revenue, with two extra weeks.

Well, it apparently was talked about, but we heard from a source close to the ultimate source that the networks somehow didn’t think they would have enough games per week to fill their Sunday windows properly.

We thought the double bye was dead and buried with the new CBS and TV deals, but then we read this from Mike Florio:

In 1993, and only in 1993, the NFL had two bye weeks. The one-year experiment stretched the regular season to 18 weeks.

Now, with the addition of a 17th game, the season permanently becomes an 18-week proposition, minimum. It also feels like a matter of time before the NFL adds an 18th game. At that time, or possibly before then, the league could bring back a second bye week.

The league has resisted returning to two byes because the networks didn’t like it. With every team getting two weeks off in an 18-week season, the week-in, week-out schedule became diluted.

But the circumstances have changed, and they will change some more. For starters, the league has expanded from 28 teams to 32 since 1993, which provides two extra games per week. More importantly, as legalized gambling spreads and as advances in technology allow for robust in-game, per-play betting by projecting images in real time from stadiums to homes and sports bars, the league and the networks will prefer having fewer games played at once.

That’s why it’s likely if not inevitable that the league eventually will expand broadcast windows, with four on Sundays (the London games could begin at 9:30 a.m. ET), two on Mondays, one on Tuesdays, one on Wednesdays, and one or two on Thursdays. (Friday and Saturday are off limits from Labor Day until mid-December, due to the broadcast antitrust exemption.)

A second bye would help to further limit the cluster of 1:00 p.m. ET games that becomes a dizzying experience for those who’d like to focus on one game at a time. Those six, seven, eight, nine, or 10 games played at once also represent missed opportunities to maximize in-game betting on any one contest.

Use of a second bye also would make it easier to justify a creative alignment of gaps between games, making it easier to fill in Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays without having players perform on insufficient rest.

Regardless, more is coming. More than 17 games. More than 18 weeks. Eventually, 18 games. Eventually, two byes.

Another part of the DB plan as that the 17^th games would not be extra home games for teams, but instead make the composition of expanded international and other neutral site games.

Let’s take the 2021 inventory of 17^th games and see what we could do with them:

5 domestic expansions

Green Bay – Kansas City (St. Louis)

Carolina – Houston (San Antonio)

Atlanta – Jacksonville (Clemson)

Philadelphia – Jets (Canton, Ohio)

Arizona – Cleveland (Norman) – both QBs from Oklahoma

2022 – Cowboys in San Antonio? Two other Midwest teams back in St. Louis, Raiders back in Oakland?  Chargers back to San Diego?  Games at Notre Dame (Bears? Colts?), Tuscaloosa. The Titans in Knoxville.  The Packers at Madison. 

5 international (non-UK)

Washington – Buffalo (Toronto)

New Orleans-Tennessee (Paris or Germany)

Dallas – New England (Mexico City)

Minnesota – Chargers (Mexico City)

San Francisco – Cincinnati (Tokyo)

2022 – Seahawks in Vancouver, Arizona and Rams in Mexico, Australia? Rio?

6 in London

Seattle – Pittsburgh

Rams – Baltimore

Tampa Bay – Indianapolis

Chicago- Las Vegas

Detroit-Denver

NY Giants-Miami

SINGLE DIGIT NUMBERS

Long a staple in college football, single digit numbers for players at random positions are coming to the NFL.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com sees the change motivated by cold, hard U.S. cash or crypto-currency.

With Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts changing his number from 2 to 1, an uptick in sales of the second-year quarterback’s jersey surely is coming. (The new jerseys aren’t yet on the team’s online store; however, the price for the remaining inventory of No. 2 has dropped from $119.99 to $59.99. Which is about $58.99 too high.)

It’s a precursor to the avalanche of purchases that will be made if/when single-digit numbers become open season for running backs, receivers, tight ends, linebackers, and defensive backs. And that will be very good for the NFL’s business.

It won’t be good for those who purchased at full price jerseys with the players’ prior numbers, and it also will create a stockpile of obsolete product, for multiple players on every team.

At one point, the NFL required players who changed numbers to pay for the unsold jerseys. Given the potential sales sparked by the latest potential efforts of the No Fun League to change its ways, they should just write off the losses from the jerseys with the old numbers — and get ready to start counting the money coming from the sales of jerseys with the new numbers.

2021 DRAFT

The DB thinks “cutie pie” every time we see the name of elite prospect DE KWITY PAYE, but there is an interesting story behind the name and the man.  Matt Wenzel ofMLive.com wrote this in 2017:

Every one of Kwity Paye’s memories are rooted in his life in the United States.

It wasn’t until seventh grade, when he signed up for football, that he began to understand his past a little deeper.

“They said I needed a birth certificate, but I didn’t have one,” Paye recalled. “I had to show them the green card. I ended up asking my mom ‘how come I have a green card and everyone else has a birth certificate?'”

A three-star defensive end from Bishop Hendricken High School in Rhode Island, Paye is one of 27 players committed to Michigan’s 2017 class. Each one will have college paid for and a chance to shine on the field for the Wolverines. Each one has worked to become part of the small percentage of athletes to earn those opportunities.

Paye, however, overcame greater odds than most to get to this point.

Born in a refugee camp in Guinea, Paye immigrated to the United States with his mother and older brother when he was 6 months old. Family members, including his grandfather whom he’s named after, were killed by rebels in civil war.

“It’s a great journey for us,” said his mother, Agnes. “I’m happy because through all my life in refugee camps we didn’t have the opportunity to go to school, so that’s why I really push my kids to go to school because I didn’t have the opportunities they have now. When we were refugees in the camp, all we looked for was food to eat – that’s it.”

That’s part of Paye’s past, which makes his accomplishments and the future in front of him even more impressive.

“I get a free education and get to graduate from one of the best public universities in the world and get to be around some of the greatest people around,” Paye said. “I sat back one day and was like, ‘I really did everything I set out to do,’ and it felt great.”

While talking about the death of her father, Agnes begins sobbing and can’t go on. It’s a painful part of the life she escaped for a better one in the United States.

Agnes was born in Liberia but had to flee the country at a young age. Rebels were targeting and killing people who spoke Krahn, the language of her tribe, so she immigrated to Sierra Leone. After seven years in a refugee camp there, war resulted in her heading to Guinea, where she gave birth to Paye at age 21 in a refugee camp. Six months later, she immigrated to the United States with her two sons and arrived in Providence, where other family members already were settled.

“He was a baby,” Agnes said of Paye’s journey to America. “He didn’t have any idea.”

Paye and his older brother, Komotay Koffie, were natural athletes but Agnes didn’t like the physicality involved with football, so they ran track. However, the desire for football was soon born.

“After track, they just wanted to stay active,” said Paye’s stepfather, Ronald Francis, who was born in the Virgin Islands. “They used to see the kids practicing football and saw them as some kind of superhero with the uniforms and the helmets and they were chasing each other with the ball. That’s all they ever wanted to play once they saw that. They were just determined.”

Paye started playing Pee Wee football and was hooked.

We are pretty sure that in the last 25 years, no player from a Rhode Island high school has been drafted in the first round.  In fact, we’re not sure if anyone who prepped in Rhode Island has ever gone in the first round – in the NFL.  We can tell you that no player who went to the University of Rhode Island has ever been drafted in the first round.

We do know that Bishop Hendricken, Paye’s alma mater, has produced one MLB first rounder (who is now a manager). Rocco Baldelli, now the manager of the Twins, was the 6^th overall pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 2000.

– – –

QB JUSTIN FIELDS has been fading a bit as rumors swirl that he is not as committed to excellence as he should be.  Peter King:

So ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, a former quarterback and good young analyst, went on “The Pat McAfee Show” and threw out some red flags on Fields. Major ones. Because he’s a respected voice, Orlovsky’s words got huge. “I have heard that he is a last-guy-in, first-guy-out type of quarterback,” Orlovsky told McAfee. “Like, not the maniacal work ethic . . . Where is his desire to be a great quarterback?”

Orlovsky told me Saturday that people from a couple of teams did question Fields’ work ethic, but he regrets not having more “clarity and specificity” in his comments. In other words, he should have said something like, This is not what I know first-hand, but in talking to people I know in the league, two teams questioned Justin Fields’ work ethic, and that could be a concern. It’s important that Orlovsky be free to pass along information he finds credible, but it’s equally important to put that information in context.

Also: The problem with questioning Fields’ desire is everyone saw Fields take a kill-shot to his ribs in the second quarter of this season’s Clemson playoff game and he responded by having the game of his life. To me, Orlovsky—as a guy who played the position—needs to clap back when someone questions the desire of Fields after watching that Clemson game. Fields took an all-time shot from a Clemson linebacker midway through the second quarter, looked to be in agony, missed a play, returned to throw four TD passes in the next 22 minutes, and outplayed Trevor Lawrence. How do you do that if you’re low on desire? Give me 10 of those guys on my team.

Orlovsky has talked to both Fields and Day in the wake of his comments. “Justin didn’t have to take my phone call,” Orlovsky said. “He could have said, Screw that guy. I told him exactly what happened, said I wasn’t good enough in that moment, and that’s on me. He was like, I get it. It’s okay. I watch, and I know you’re someone who’s had my back. I appreciate you calling me. I felt like he was really mature, and I appreciated him hearing me out.”

What I know: In conversations with people from two teams that are studying the quarterbacks atop this draft, I didn’t hear any negatives on Fields’ work ethic or drive. One of these teams could well be in position to take one of the top quarterbacks, and this team has dug deep into the top passers. One of our problems in this business, particularly before the draft, is many of us don’t cover the college game. (And I will put myself at the head of the line, because I am not a big college football watcher during the fall.) Many years, my first contact with the draft prospects is at the combine—I’m never around them as college players. So it’s tricky for me to be authoritative on prospects. I ask those I’ve trusted in my years covering the NFL. In the case of Fields, those I trust say he’s got zero work ethic issues.

Fields is Black. What made the criticism more noticeable is the infamous narrative that Black quarterbacks are inferior to their white counterparts, or not as clever, or not as hard-working. With two recent Black-QB MVPs (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) and three others in the NFL’s top 10 (Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott), we don’t often hear the tropes anymore. But Orlovsky’s comments opened some wounds there. I agree with what Dominique Foxworth—a former player and current ESPN analyst, who is Black—said here: “It does not mean it’s not a fair and true criticism of Justin Fields, but it’s important to be specific . . . I’m not saying that it’s not true, but it’s understandable that the racial biases that we have often leak into all parts of our lives, including football analysis.”

I would add this about prospects of any color: If some of the things an analyst hears from one or two coaches/scouts/GMs seem off-key based on what he’s seen (such as questioning Fields’ desire after his valorous performance against Clemson), then I’d say don’t use those criticisms until vetting it with two or three more people he knows well in the game.

Of course, Day is going to be pro-Fields and stick up for him. But Day made two other points I thought were interesting:

• On reads and game-plan prep. “He’s very, very intelligent. He reminds me a lot of [former Buckeye] Joe Burrow when it comes to that. Tell him something once, and he absorbs it,” Day said. Fields’ 56-yard TD pass to Chris Olave in the January playoff game came on his fourth read in the progression, and it was thrown 62 yards in the air, to Olave at the Clemson goal line. Over their time together, Day said Fields has become more comfortable telling him what he likes and doesn’t like in a game plan.

• On what he needs to improve: Day said there were a couple of times in 2020, most notably in a too-narrow win over Indiana, when Fields needed to show “better understanding when to create and then when to cut your losses.” Fields threw nine interceptions in his 22-game Ohio State career, and three came against the Hoosiers.

“In that Indiana game,” Day said, “I think he would tell you, he was trying to force it, and I think it’s . . . he never really said it to me but you know in a short season, he’s got pride too. We went up big in that game early and he wanted to go win the Heisman Trophy—that’d be my guess. It’s a lesson learned. It really bothered him for a while afterwards, but I told him that’s gonna happen as a quarterback. The question is, how do you respond? He responded well.”

That’s mindful of Josh Allen trying to do too much in his first two years in Buffalo, and settling in as a far less mistake-prone passer in 2020.

Orlovsky thinks Fields’ mechanics need to be streamlined so he can play a little faster in the NFL. After his impressive college run, Fields seems to be getting passed in the pre-draft run-up by Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. In an ideal world, Fields goes to a team with no pressure to play right away and a good teacher of the position: Atlanta (head coach Arthur Smith) at four, New England (offensive coordinator John McDaniels) at 15 or with a trade-up, or New Orleans (Sean Payton, though the Saints pick 28th). Before the draft, players want to be taken as high as possible. Then they find out it’s more about where you go, not how high you go. The golden spot for a young quarterback is Atlanta. Smith’s a good teacher, and Matt Ryan’s a perfect tutor for a season or two. But it’s no sure thing the Falcons—who could take a franchise tackle or perhaps the best overall player in the draft in Florida tight end Kyle Pitts—will even take the heir to Ryan. So Fields will be a man of mystery in the next 24 days, till the first round is picked.

A postscript on Orlovsky, a Kornacki-type, full of information and dying to get it out: I know him as an earnest, hard-working analyst, still young in his chosen profession. He made a mistake—not in criticizing a first-round choice, but in how he did it, and then in not pushing back on what seems like a foolish narrative about desire. He’s good at what he does, and I’d bet he takes the L here and gets better from it.

The DB thinks it could be as simple as DWAYNE HASKINS came out of the Ohio State program and he has effort issues.  Fields looks like Haskins and went to Ohio State.  Sometimes, the analysis isn’t very deep.

We would say that King defends Fields with evidence that is different from what he is “accused.”  Being physically and mentally tough when hit on the field is a bit different from being slipshod in your preparation during the week.  Fields might be tough and smart when the lights come on, but unfocused during the week.  Or he might be focused, and these are bad rumors.  Or he might be unfocused in college, but shape up in the pros. That’s why the draft is such a crapshoot.

– – –

This Mock Draft from Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has five QBs off the board in the first 9 picks:

Last Friday’s blockbuster trades altered the outlook for this year’s NFL draft, and those to come in the future. How will the moving and shaking impact Round 1, which begins a month from today? Below is my third mock draft of the first round.

Quick reminder: This mock is a projection of where I believe players will go, not necessarily a reflection of my opinion as to where the players should go.

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence

Clemson · QB · Junior

Lawrence has rare potential and special traits. I’m not wavering from my projection for the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.

2 – New York Jets

Zach Wilson

BYU · QB · Junior

Wilson made some big, splashy throws at his pro day, and my guess is the Jets are locked in on him being the new face of the offense.

3 – San Francisco 49ers

Trey Lance

North Dakota State · QB · Sophomore (RS)

Lance was the projected selection for the 49ers in my mock draft 1.0, when they held the No. 12 pick, so it won’t be a surprise if he’s the player they’re targeting after trading up. He’s such a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

4 – Atlanta Falcons

Patrick Surtain II

Alabama · CB · Junior

The Falcons could take a quarterback here to learn behind Matt Ryan or trade out of this spot, but Surtain is the pick they need as a lockdown cornerback.

5 – Cincinnati Bengals

Penei Sewell

Oregon · OT · Junior

Sewell will need some development from a physical and technical standpoint, but I expect him to start early on, which will lead to Jonah Williams moving inside to guard.

6 – Miami Dolphins

Ja’Marr Chase

LSU · WR · Junior

With the move down the board, the Dolphins add draft capital and still land the player they covet. Great job by GM Chris Grier and his team.

7 – Detroit Lions

DeVonta Smith

Alabama · WR · Senior

The Lions must add more help at receiver for Jared Goff. Smith is the most talented inside/outside target in this draft.

8 – Carolina Panthers

Mac Jones

Alabama · QB · Junior (RS)

Carolina gets a quarterback with good accuracy and quick eyes who is coming off of a season that was eerily similar to Joe Burrow’s when Panthers OC Joe Brady coached him at LSU.

9 – Denver Broncos

Justin Fields

Ohio State · QB · Junior

Selecting Fields would be a bold — but potentially necessary — move for the team to take the next step.

10 – Dallas Cowboys

Rashawn Slater

Northwestern · OL · Senior

Slater has the versatility to play any position on the O-line and will help strengthen a Cowboys front five that was decimated by injuries last season.

11 – New York Giants

Kyle Pitts

Florida · TE · Junior

Dream scenario here, as the Giants get a chance to choose between electric speed (Jaylen Waddle) and matchup talent (Pitts). I see them taking the latter.

12 – Philadelphia Eagles

Jaylen Waddle

Alabama · WR · Junior

Moving back and grabbing Jalen Hurts’ former Alabama teammate is a strong play. Waddle can help open up the offense and threaten with yards-after-catch throws underneath.

13 – Los Angeles Chargers

Christian Darrisaw

Virginia Tech · OT · Junior

While the Chargers could use a cornerback, they almost have to have a left tackle. Darrisaw is one of the more talented blind-side protectors in this draft.

14 – Minnesota Vikings

Alijah Vera-Tucker

USC · OL · Junior (RS)

Vera-Tucker’s arms ended up being shorter than expected at his pro day, but he still gives the Vikings a much-needed addition with guard/tackle flexibility.

15 – New England Patriots

Micah Parsons

Penn State · LB · Junior

Parsons could slip due to character concerns, but he’s super talented and Bill Belichick’s “Patriots Way” might be a good fit for the young linebacker.

16 – Arizona Cardinals

Jaycee Horn

South Carolina · CB · Junior

Big win for the Cardinals here if Horn falls to them. He has all the physical tools Arizona could be looking for and is capable of starting right away.

17 – Las Vegas Raiders

Christian Barmore

Alabama · DT · Sophomore (RS)

Many mock drafts have Las Vegas targeting a linebacker here, but Barmore is a true two-way defensive tackle who can improve the Raiders’ run defense and interior pass rush.

18 – Miami Dolphins

Kwity Paye

Michigan · Edge · Senior

During last week’s Michigan pro day, Paye blazed a 4.52 40-yard dash at 261 pounds, while also posting impressive numbers in the vertical leap (35.5 inches), broad jump (9 feet, 10 inches) and bench press (36 reps). A strained quadriceps prevented Paye from performing the agility drills — where he was really supposed to turn heads — but he’s established himself as one of the freakiest athletes in this class. It’s not hard to imagine Dolphins GM Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores falling in love with these traits.

19 – Washington Football Team

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Notre Dame · LB · Junior (RS)

Big-time talent who brings an explosive blend of speed, aggression and versatility. He’s still learning, but should become a high-end linebacker with rush and cover ability, as well.

20 – Chicago Bears

Gregory Rousseau

Miami · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Robert Quinn, last offseason’s big addition on a five-year $70 million deal, provided a grand total of two sacks in 2020. Rousseau remains raw, with just 15 college games under his belt, but he offers enticing length and athleticism on the edge.

21 – Indianapolis Colts

Jayson Oweh

Penn State · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

GM Chris Ballard could opt for cornerback help, but he usually looks to build the fronts. Not many men walk the Earth with Oweh’s size and athletic profile. Ballard just might swing the bat on pass rush here.

22 – Tennessee Titans

Greg Newsome II

Northwestern · CB · Junior

Newsome’s stock has been on the rise after an electric pro day. The Titans need a cornerback, and the highly competitive Northwestern product feels like a perfect fit.

23 – New York Jets

Azeez Ojulari

Georgia · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Ojulari will need to refine his pass-rushing plan to consistently succeed at the next level, but the raw explosiveness showcased at his pro day is special.

24 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Zaven Collins

Tulsa · LB · Junior (RS)

When the need matches the talent available, everyone is happy. Collins has throwback size, but new-school athleticism and coverage ability as a three-down player.

25 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Teven Jenkins

Oklahoma State · OT · Senior (RS)

The Jaguars immediately protect the investment they made at No. 1 overall, giving Trevor Lawrence a mauling blocker who can immediately start at guard or tackle.

26 – Cleveland Browns

Jaelan Phillips

Miami · Edge · Junior (RS)

The former five-star recruit carries some medical concerns, but he brings a rare skill set off the edge. Phillips and Myles Garrett could wreak havoc in Cleveland.

27 – Baltimore Ravens

Terrace Marshall Jr.

LSU · WR · Junior

The Ravens need more juice in the passing game, and Marshall offers an alluring size-speed combo out wide.

28 – New Orleans Saints

Elijah Moore

Mississippi · WR · Junior

The versatile wideout with soft hands and outstanding toughness can win from any alignment, working all areas of the field. Not a bad piece to have in the post-Drew Brees era.

29 – Green Bay Packers

Tyson Campbell

Georgia · CB · Junior

Campbell is still in need of polish, but has impressive size and speed to help inject some new life into the Packers’ back end.

30 – Buffalo Bills

Caleb Farley

Virginia Tech · CB · Junior (RS)

Farley’s slotting in the first round is tenuous in the wake of an additional back procedure. While he’s expected to be ready for camp, the Bills will need to have their team doctors clear him. This would be tremendous value if he ends up being ready to rock.

31 – Kansas City Chiefs

Landon Dickerson

Alabama · C · Senior (RS)

Dickerson is a coach’s dream with his infectious attitude, toughness and versatility along the interior. The only thing preventing him from being a first-round lock is a concerning injury history.

32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Travis Etienne

Clemson · RB · Senior

Etienne is violent, fast and able to impact the game on all three downs. He would be an immediate upgrade to the Tampa offense that could continue beyond Tom Brady’s tenure.