The Daily Briefing Monday, August 15, 2022

Week 1 of the preseason is in the books – and it seemed like the games were a bit more entertaining than usual.  Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com notes four rookie quarterbacks who did well:

It was a fantastic first showing for rookie quarterbacks all the way around. At every turn, there was a young signal-caller making a name for himself, either stamping a claim as a Week 1 starter or opening eyes for his organization to possibly be the QB1 of the future.

The first quarterback to show out was Titans third-round pick Malik Willis, who showed flashes of his playmaking ability against the Ravens. He completed six of his 11 passes for 107 yards while rushing for 38 yards and a touchdown. Of course, Ryan Tannehill is solidified as the Week 1 starter, but if his struggles from 2021 carry over into 2022, it won’t take long for folks to be clamoring for Willis, especially if he continues to blossom.

Next was former Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder (Atlanta), who played the majority of the snaps after Marcus Mariota gave way after the opening series. He showed his ability to move the ball through the air and with his feet, passing for 103 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for a game-high 59 yards on six attempts. Ridder also showed a clutch gene, completing a 21-yard touchdown pass on a fourth-and-9 attempt with 1:30 remaining in the game to help lead Atlanta to the win.

Day 3 pick Sam Howell flashed his potential of being a future option for the Commanders as he nearly led Washington to a comeback win over the Panthers. After Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke got some work, Howell came in and threw for more yards (145) than both of them combined. He also showed his rushing ability that was on display during his days at UNC, scampering in for two scores.

While all of those quarterbacks are likely going to be on the bench when the season gets rolling, first-round pick Kenny Pickett made a strong case to be Pittsburgh’s Week 1 starter. He came in to begin the second half and completed all five of his passes on his opening series while leading the Steelers on a touchdown drive. After the defense came up with a clutch strip-sack in the closing minutes of the game, Pickett tossed the game-winning touchdown with just three seconds remaining on the clock.

You really can’t ask for much more from these first-year quarterbacks.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Crazed Elton John fans left Soldier Field’s surface a mess.  Michael Rothstein ofESPN.com:

The playing surface at Soldier Field was the subject of criticism throughout the Bears’ 19-14 preseason win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday.

Filled with noticeable divots and patches of missing grass, the field conditions became so noticeable that JC Tretter, the president of the NFL Players Association, took to Twitter to question why the league allowed Bears and Chiefs players to perform on a surface in such a poor visible state.

“The NFL said that this field met minimum testing standards,” Tretter tweeted. “We clearly need to re-evaluate what is an acceptable surface for players to compete on. We need new testing metrics looking at the performance and safety of every field. The NFL can and should do better.”

The Bears hosted their lone game of the preseason eight days after Elton John played a concert at Soldier Field, which left the grass visibly damaged with lines of missing turf spanning the length of the field. The Chicago Fire, who also play at Soldier Field, announced before the concert that they were moving their Aug. 21 game to nearby SeatGeek Stadium “due to the expected field condition at Soldier Field from a series of planned events at the venue.”

“I’m new here so I don’t know the situations, but I know the guys are trying to do their best, and the playing surface was passed by the NFL for us to be on,” Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. “I thought it was firm and it was good, so that’s where we’ll leave it at.”

The Bears held their annual family fest practice at Soldier Field on Tuesday, and while the playing surface was still visibly damaged, some players say the field conditions Saturday were better than earlier in the week.

GREEN BAY

Despite his 3 interceptions, Doug Farrar, writing at YahooSports.com, liked what he saw from QB JORDAN LOVE on Friday:

How often is an interception a quarterback’s fault? Less often than you think. Football Outsiders has a metric called Adjusted Interceptions, which endeavors to assign responsibility for those bad plays to quarterbacks, receivers, defenders, situations, and occasionally, dumb luck. Per FO, there are quarterbacks who have great interception luck, and others who decidedly do not.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love could certainly relate after Friday night’s game against the San Francisco 49ers. The box score tells you that in the Packers’ 28-21 loss, Love completed 13 of 24 passes for 176 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 66.0. Were you to look at that and move on with your day, you may think that Love is a bust, the Packers were insane for moving up to select him in the first round of the 2020 draft, and if anything happens to Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are going to have to go trade for Jimmy Garoppolo or something.

Not so fast. Love’s head coach was not going to assign blame to love for any of those picks.

 “Basically two were drops and on the other one we had two receivers run the wrong routes,” Matt LaFleur told the Packers TV Network during the broadcast.

You may think that this is a case of a coach caping for his guy, but the tape tells a very different story.

Love’s first interception came with 13 seconds left in the first quarter. He was trying to get the ball to tight end Tyler Davis, but Davis couldn’t come up with it. Cornerback Marcelino McCrary-Ball came up with the tip-drill pick. You could say that maybe Love put a little too much gas on this throw, and it was high, but this is a catchable pass.

Love’s second interception ended the next drive with 12:21 left in the first half. He was throwing a backside dig to receiver Romeo Doubs, and if you look at the trajectory of the ball, Love actually threw this to a good place — over the head of cornerback Samuel Womack III, and in a place where Doubs has a better shot at the ball than his defender. It just so happened that Doubs lost the battle for the ball after it was caught.

Love’s third interception — and Womack’s second of the day — came with 5:31 left in the first half, and it was the third straight drive in which his pick ended a drive. Here, Love was trying to get the ball to Amari Rodgers over the middle, but Womack did a great job of getting inside position. You could say that Love might have done a better job of adjusting to that… and you might be right. On the other hand, is this one of the “wrong route” examples LaFleur talked about? We also don’t know. Perhaps Rodgers was supposed to do something else if he was covered in this way.

The point here is not to absolve Love of any responsibility for his bad day — if it’s obvious that he was gacking the ball all over the field, we’re going to tell you that. But in this case, it’s clear that Love’s day wasn’t quite as bad as the box score would have you believe.

MINNESOTA

With the CDC now saying that there is no difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, QB KIRK COUSINS tested positive for COVID and missed Sunday’s preseason opener.

In his absence, 2^nd-year man KELLEN MOND played well.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

After spending his rookie season on the bad side of former coach Mike Zimmer, Vikings quarterback Kellen Mond found himself even with Sean Mannion for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart, behind Kirk Cousins.

Mond took a big step toward taking the backup job on Sunday, throwing two touchdown passes in extended action against the Raiders.

Mannion got the start, playing three drives. Mond then carried the game into the fourth quarter, before Mannion returned to wrap things up. Mannion led the Vikings to no touchdowns.

Both of Mond’s touchdown passes went to Albert Wilson, an eight-year veteran who had a promising start to his career in Kansas City but never became what the Dolphins envisioned when signing him as a free agent in 2018. Wilson is buried on the depth chart, listed as a fifth-stringer. It will be interesting to see if that changes after today.

It also will be interesting to see if Mond’s star rises a bit. He completed nine of 14 passes for 119 yards. He finished with a passer rating of 130.7.

The touchdown throws came from the pocket, with Mond showing decisiveness and firing the ball while standing still. Perhaps the most encouraging play (despite finishing in an incompletion) came when Mond used his legs to buy time, something the Vikings haven’t enjoyed since Case Keenum in 2017.

Mond is no threat to Cousins, this year. Things could get interesting in 2023, when Cousins will enter (once again) a contract year. Will the Vikings extend him again, or will they let Cousins enter camp as the starter, recognizing that Mond could maybe take over at some point?

There’s a chance the Vikings will opt for none of the above. However, Mond’s wage-scale contract which has three years remaining gives the Vikings a chance to see whether the new regime can make the old regime (well, at least the former G.M.) look good for the decision to use a third-round pick on Mond in 2021.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

It was only one drive, but QB JALEN HURTS was a “winner” for Tyler Sullivan ofCBSSports.com:

Winner: Jalen Hurts

We all know that Jalen Hurts is a menace with his legs, but there is still some question surrounding his ability as a passer. Well, in Philadelphia’s preseason opener, he showed that he may be taking a big leap in that aspect of his game in 2022. In his lone series of the night against New York, Hurts was dynamite as a passer, completing all six of his throws for 80 yards, and a touchdown to tight end Dallas Goedert. Hurts was the catalyst for the opening seven-play, 80-yard drive that only took 3:47 to get into the end zone.

If he continues to look like that as a passer, Philadelphia will be a legit threat in the NFC.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

We now need to keep an eye on WR DRAKE LONDON.  Michael Rothstein ofESPN.com:

Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith said rookie receiver Drake London will “probably not” be available during practices this week, including the joint practices against the New York Jets this coming weekend.

London suffered a right knee injury during the first quarter of Friday night’s 27-24 preseason-opening win over the Detroit Lions — but said Sunday he does not believe it is something they are concerned about long term.

“We got different guys on different return-to-play plans,” Smith said. “Nothing that we’re really concerned about long term. We’ll be smart. He’s had a really good training camp and like the rest of these guys, some guys we held out today, we’re hoping to get everybody back, healthy and ready to roll when the regular season rolls around.”

London was injured after catching a 24-yard pass on the team’s first drive. He then jogged to the sideline, had his knee looked at and went into the blue medical tent. He remained on the sideline after being ruled out — in the first half in uniform and in the second half in street clothes.

Smith wouldn’t commit to London returning this preseason, either. The Falcons play the Jets on Aug. 22, have joint practices a few days later and then a game with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Aug. 27.

“We’ll see. We’ll assess it week-to-week and we’ll make the best decision,” Smith said. “He’s had a really good camp. He got his feet wet and I’m pleased with him. But like all our guys, the No. 1 decision we make is that the health and safety of the player and how it affects him and the team and that’s where we start.”

Atlanta opens its season at home against New Orleans on Sept. 11.

CAROLINA

We’re not sure the stats of the game back this conclusion, but Tyler Sullivan ofCBSSports.com sees QB BAKER MAYFIELD moving ahead of QB SAM DARNOLD in the Panthers QB battle:

Winner: Baker Mayfield

I know we’re still calling this a competition but all signs seem to be pointing to Baker Mayfield being the guy under center in Week 1 for the Carolina Panthers. The former Browns QB got the nod to begin the preseason on Saturday and played well in his debut, completing 4-of-7 for 45 yards while leading Carolina to a field goal on his lone series of the day.

His main competition, Sam Darnold, did throw a touchdown during his only drive of the day, but it does seem like Mayfield has a noticeable lead in this QB battle, even if head coach Matt Rhule doesn’t want to make any definitive proclamations at this stage of the preseason. 

TAMPA BAY

Peter King:

I think I feel strongly about this Tom Brady deal about taking 10 days off for a personal matter in the middle of training camp. Very strongly. Brady has so much currency in the bank with coaches and teams regarding dedication to the job and devotion to his craft that when he comes to the Bucs and says he needs 10 days away, my response would be: “Take more if you need it.”

The DB heard that QB TOM BRADY’s absence from camp has to do with something involving his “business”, not family, health or continued desire to play for the Buccaneers.  We shall see.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

Peter King with a snapshot of QB TREY LANCE at Sunday’s practice:

He made three superb throws, I thought, on Sunday: a lofted corner route to Deebo Samuel, throw right on target…a red zone TD throw, with soft, excellent touch, to tight end Ross Dwelley in the right corner of the end zone. “You stayed in,” the back judge working the practice said to Dwelley, nodding…a three-quarters-motion throw, also for a TD, to tight end George Kittle, who had to stretch to make the catch. The awareness, avoiding the rush by coming down with the arm angle on the throw, was perfect.

 “Mentally,” he said later, “I feel like things are a lot more clear for me. I understand the offense, and I’m able to play fast.”

That’s the good. I worry a bit about the accuracy. In this practice, he threw high on a 15-yard cross for Brandon Aiyuk, a throw that should be easy. He missed an open Samuel twice, by my count.

SEATTLE

The Seahawks actually had pretty good QB play in Saturday night’s preseason opener.  Michael Baca of NFL.com:

Round one of Seattle’s quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock is in the books following the Seahawks’ preseason opener on Saturday night. By all accounts, the team is scoring it a draw so far.

“As it turned out, for both guys that was a good outing because they had a lot of pressure on them to have to get things done,” head coach Pete Carroll said after the 32-25 defeat to the Steelers, via Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times. “We’re coming from behind and drives to go ahead and all that kind of stuff. I’m anxious to see how it looks when we break it down. But those were the kind of options we were looking forward to see how the guys were doing.”

Smith, the incumbent QB entering his third season with Seattle, started the game and played the entire first half. The eight-year veteran led an offense that was slow out of the gate, but he ended the outing on a high note by conducting an impressive scoring drive with under two minutes to play. Smith completed 3 of 5 passes for 36 yards during the nine-play, 61-yard two-minute drill, and finished it by finding the end zone on a 2-yard scramble.

“I felt great out there,” said Smith, who completed 10 of 15 passes for 101 yards with nine rushing yards and the score. “I felt like my decision-making was on point with seeing things well. They had a few good blitzes and things of that nature but I was able to get the ball out of my hands when I needed to.”

The Seahawks trailed Pittsburgh, 17-10, entering halftime, but Smith’s contender quickly turned around the team’s stammering offense in the second half.

Lock came out the gate hot, connecting with Bo Melton on a 39-yard strike to open a nine-play, 73-yard scoring drive and punctuating it with a TD toss to Dareke Young. The newly acquired Seahawks QB got another TD pass after running back DeeJay Dallas brilliantly swerved through defenders two drives later. Lock then tied the game with a toss to Travis Homer for the two-point conversion.

With the game tied 25-25 late in the fourth quarter, there was an opportunity for Lock to certify his debut with a game-winning drive, but that’s when the 25-year-old made his biggest mistake of the evening. Sustaining a hit from the Steelers’ oncoming pressure, Lock fumbled on the very first play of that would-be drive and the turnover put Pittsburgh on Seattle’s 43-yard line. Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett put the game away with a game-winning TD pass.

“I could have handled that better,” Lock said of the late turnover, “Could have flipped the pro (protection), could have played a hot (read receiver). As a quarterback, you’re always able to fix those things and I’ll always take it on the chest and I could have been better there.”

Despite a sputtering offense to start and a crucial fumble late in the exhibition, Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was also pleased with both QBs after the preseason opener.

“Both QBs did a good job,” he said. “Geno, that two-minute drive coming in and then Drew being out the first half and coming out and competing. Both guys did a good job staying in and learning from each scenario that was happening.”

The Smith-Lock showdown enters round two this Thursday night in a primetime home game versus the Bears. Seattle heads to Dallas on Saturday, Aug. 26 to conclude the preseason.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Peter King, in Broncos camp, notes that QB RUSSELL WILSON has been the new kid in town once before in his career:

For Wilson, this summer is mindful in a larger way of summer 2011, when Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina State, showed up as a fifth-year player at Wisconsin. Five weeks later he was a captain of the team. Four months later, he quarterbacked the Badgers to a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

“This is Wisconsin all over again,” agreed one veteran Wilson-watcher. His coach then, Paul Chryst, talked about Wilson setting a tone for the 2011 season from the moment practice started that summer.

Ditto Denver. “He’s a machine,” said GM George Paton. “You don’t really understand it until you see his car here at 5:30 in the morning and then see him roaming the halls at 9 at night.”

Another person who knows Wilson well said the collaboration between Wilson and Hackett is different than what he experienced in Seattle: “Coach and Russell are not coach-player. They’re partners.” They seem to be having a good time. Hackett, a Star Wars freak who likes to keep the atmosphere very light, and Wilson were debating naming audible calls after Star Wars characters one day last week.

KANSAS CITY

Peter King on WR JuJu SMITH-SCHUSTER, who is now a Chief, and the rest of the Kansas City offense with WR TYREEK HILL gone to Miami:

Most noticeable was the usage of JuJu Smith-Schuster. I’d expected him to mimic his Pittsburgh slot-receiver role. In Smith-Schuster’s last two seasons as a Steeler, he was used 78.8 percent of the time in the slot, per PFF. But on this day, nine of the 27 plays I was able to chart had Smith-Schuster in the slot. The rest of the time he was split wide, left, split wide right, or a motion man, or once in what appeared to be jet-motion.

I think this team is energized by the outside impression of, They’re screwed without Tyreek. This camp visit left me feeling very much like when I left Green Bay and just figured Aaron Rodgers will figure it out without Davante Adams. I’m slightly less certain about Kansas City, but my gut feeling is Andy Reid and Mahomes will figure it out without Hill.

Imagine lining up the speed of Mecole Hardman wide right and Marquez Valdez-Scantling wide left; tight end Travis Kelce everywhere; Smith-Schuster in the slot and outside; sure-handed fifth receiver Justin Watson mostly outside, and Reid’s new Swiss Army Knife, rookie Skyy Moore, everywhere including the backfield. (I saw that the other day — Moore explodes out of the backfield.)

Ever hear the expression, You couldn’t wipe the smile off his face? When I met with Smith-Schuster after practice, he was the kid who got a date with the Homecoming Queen, scored the winning touchdown against the archrival and found out he got straight A’s on his report card…all in the same day.

“It’s been fun, man, I’ll tell you that,” Smith-Schuster said. He loved life as a Steeler but thought he was in a Pittsburgh pigeonhole playing almost only in the slot. “This is what I’ve been waiting to do. Everyone has to know everybody’s position. You have to know the outside, inside. You could play anywhere. To be on so many personnel groups where we got so many great receivers who could play inside and outside, I love it. That’s what I’ve been wanting to do, to be used in so many different ways. It’s so great, the way Coach Reid gives Patrick Mahomes so many different options on every play.”

I was struck by how rejuvenated this offense seems. Truly, Reid likes Hill, is happy for him to be the highest-paid receiver in NFL history and knows Hill wanted to leave. So why keep Hill when his heart is elsewhere…and when giving him up and getting five draft picks in the process is the best thing for this team and for its ’23 and ’24 salary cap?

But was it the best thing for the team? We’ll see — and Reid acknowledged it, sort of, in his cinder block dorm room on the campus of this small, classic middle-America university. Reid knows if Hill didn’t take the deal to max out his income and be closer to his family, the unhappiness about his personal life could have spilled over to his professional life. Now he’s got four new receivers giddy to be playing with Mahomes and coming to work every day saying, Whaddaya got me today, coach?

“It’s good for him and it’ll be good for us,” Reid told me, sitting in the kind of dorm room he’s been living in for the last 10 summers here as coach of his second NFL team: small and rectangular, the kind of room I’d bet some freshman from Lee’s Summit will occupy in a month. “It’s a win-win. I think it’ll help him in his career with the Dolphins. Financially it’s phenomenal for him and his family.

“For us, it gives you a little juice that maybe you need when you’ve been someplace for 10 years.”

King also notes the “Brady” mindset of QB PATRICK MAHOMES who is not into chasing money:

I’m only tangentially interested in the social-media noise on all things NFL, but one thing I’ve noticed is the drumbeat of Mahomes’ contract looks bad. Too many players are jumping over it. He should be unhappy.

“Do you hear that stuff?” I asked. “What do you think?”

“If you’re ticked off making all the money that I’m making, you’re probably a little bit messed up. I know I’m going to be taken care of for the rest of my life. Being in this organization and being on the platform that the NFL has given me, I’ve been able to make money off the field as well. If you watch some of the great quarterbacks, man, it’s not always about getting the most money. It’s about going out there and winning and having a legacy that you can kind of live with forever. For me, that’s what I want. Obviously, I want to make money and be able to buy everything I want and all that different type of stuff, but that’s not the reason I started playing football. The reason I started playing football was to win Super Bowls, to enjoy these relationships that I’m building on this field with all my friends who are my teammates. I think at the end of the day if I do that, I’ll be a happy guy in the end.”

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Mike Florio is concerned that QB LAMAR JACKSON doesn’t have a new contract:

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has set a Week One deadline for getting a new contract in place with the team. Coach John Harbaugh has said a deal will get done when it gets done.

So what happens if it doesn’t get done by Week One?

Obviously, it could still get done after the first game of the regular season. It’s not a real deadline, but something imposed by Jackson. He can change his mind at any time, and the Ravens at any point could give him an offer close enough to what he wants to make it happen.

If the deal doesn’t get done before the conclusion of the 2022 season, the Ravens will have a limited window to continue to negotiate exclusively with Jackson. Then, they’ll have to decide whether to apply the franchise tag and, perhaps more importantly, whether to use the non-exclusive version or the more expensive exclusive level.

The Ravens went through that analysis a decade ago, after Joe Flacco rejected the team’s best offer in August and bet on himself. He won, squeezing a market-setting deal on the eve of the deadline for applying the tag — at a time when teams like the Browns and Chiefs were believed to be ready to try to sign him to an offer sheet if the non-exclusive tag had been used.

The Ravens may welcome the chance to use the non-exclusive tag with Jackson. If another team signs him to an offer sheet, the Ravens simply need to match it and he’s signed. While certain games can be played to make it harder for the Ravens to match, the league long ago closed the Steve Hutchinson loophole. Still, the Ravens would have to assume the risk that another team will make (and Jackson will accept) an offer they can’t or won’t match — and to accept two first-round picks as compensation.

A tag and trade is also possible, with the Ravens sending Jackson to a preferred destination in exchange for acceptable compensation. That’s the only way Jackson could get to Miami at this point, given that the Dolphins lost next year’s first-round pick due to the Sean Payton/Tom Brady tampering probe.

Through it all, the Ravens and Jackson have the ability to do a long-term deal at any time. That window would close only on July 15 of 2023, if he’s tagged by the Ravens and not traded.

The easiest way to avoid all of this is to get a deal done in the next four weeks. That’s obviously easier said than done; otherwise, a deal would be done by now.

Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com thinks that Arizona made Jackson a pile of money with the deal they lavished on QB KYLER MURRAY:

How much will Lamar Jackson get paid?

Jackson projects to make a boatload of money in his next contract. Using recent quarterback extensions as a guideline, Jackson can go a few different ways with his new deal. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers opted for a high annual salary, and will make roughly $50 million in each of the next three seasons. Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson got a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed deal, an unprecedented contract in the NFL. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray topped Watson’s deal, getting $230.5 million, though Murray did not get as much guaranteed.

Jackson will likely seek to surpass Murray’s $230.5 million figure. While Murray has shown flashes of brilliance, Jackson has performed much better over his career. He has a pretty good argument to get more money.

CINCINNATI

QB JOE BURROW, minus his appendix, is back at practice.  Michael Baca of NFL.com:

There was no definitive timeline for Joe Burrow’s return following his appendectomy two and a half weeks ago. The Bengals may have a clearer outlook after Sunday.

Burrow was on the practice field for the first time since having his appendix removed 19 days ago, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday. The Bengals’ star quarterback was seen coming back from a walkthrough with a jersey on and a helmet in hand, per The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr.

Though it is unclear how much Burrow did during Sunday morning’s walkthrough, participating at any capacity is good news for Cincinnati. That’s not to indicate Burrow wasn’t at Bengals practice all along, as he was driving around the field on a cart less than one week removed from surgery.

Another good sign for Burrow’s recovery was beheld ahead of the Bengals’ preseason opener on Friday night when he ran sprints during pre-game warmups.

Burrow is coming off a breakout season where he guided the Bengals back to relevancy, winning the AFC championship and getting Cincinnati to its first Super Bowl appearance since the 1988 season. The 25-year-old led the NFL completion percentage (70.4) and passing yards per attempt (8.9) in 2021, and has turned the Bengals into an offensive juggernaut after just two seasons in the league.

Further updates on Burrow’s status are poised to happen in the coming week. With the 2022 season opener four weeks away, Burrow still has plenty of time to get back up to speed with his teammates.

The Bengals have two preseason games remaining, with a road tilt on Sunday, Aug. 21 against the Giants and a home exhibition versus against the Rams on Saturday, Aug. 27. Both games will be broadcast live on NFL Network.

CLEVELAND

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com verbally taps his watch about the timing of the QB DESHAUN WATSON appeal:

Twelve days ago, the NFL appealed Judge Sue L. Robinson’s ruling in the Deshaun Watson case. The rules require that the appeal process be expedited. Currently, it doesn’t feel as if appeals officer Peter Harvey is expediting anything.

On Friday, just as the momentum was building for a ruling, credible talk of a potential settlement emerged. Watson reportedly is willing to accept a suspension of eight games and pay a fine in the amount of $5 million. The league presumably won’t slip below 10 games, and the league may want a fine in the range of $10 million — the salary Watson earned in 2021 for not playing.

If a settlement happens, both sides need to explain that the fine converts his absence from money for nothing into nothing from nothing. Although some continue to insist that Watson didn’t play last year for reasons unrelated to his off-field situation, he would have been traded to the Dolphins but for the lingering legal problems. Indeed, he likely would have been traded to someone before the 2021 draft, since it was clear he would not play for the Texans again.

If he pays a $10 million fine, Watson and the league can credibly argue that Watson actually served an unpaid suspension for all of last season. With 10 games in 2022 on top of that, this may placate those who would argue that the league was too lenient with Watson.

Regardless, if there’s a window currently open for a settlement, at some point it will close. At some point, Harvey needs to issue a ruling. It’s hard to imagine the situation lingering much longer.

The DB would guess that the easy part of it is for The Commish and those around him to demand a stiffer penalty.  But as Daniel Wallach explains, it is harder to fashion that will withstand a challenge should Watson and the NFLPA take NFL Justice to federal court.

In a Twitter thread (edited here), legal ace Daniel Wallach lays out the precedents that work against the NFL:

Here’s how I expect the NFLPA to argue the “fair notice” issue on behalf of Deshaun Watson in federal court. They will assert that Harvey’s decision violates the ‘essence of the CBA’ by disregarding the ‘law of the shop’ requirement of advance notice of disciplinary severity.👇

The “essence of the CBA” standard:

Vacatur of an arbitration award is appropriate only when the decision does not “draw its essence from the CBA,” and the arbitrator instead has dispensed “his own brand of industrial justice.”

Daniel Wallach

The “essence of the CBA” includes not just the express terms of the collective bargaining agreement, but also prior arbitral decisions and extrinsic evidence of the custom and practice of the parties, i.e., the law of the shop.”

Awards that disregard the ‘law of the shop’ are to be vacated. Indeed, courts have time and again vacated arbitration awards “solely because of the arbitrator’ failure to consider . . . an extremely relevant source of common law – the law of the shop.”

“It is the law of the shop to provide professional football players with advance notice of prohibited conduct and potential discipline.” Indeed, “a player’s right to notice is at the heart of the CBA and, for that matter, of our criminal and civil justice systems.”

“An employee must receive clear notice of both what the employer expects as well as the range of penalties that may be imposed.” Elkouri & Elkouri, How Arbitration Works, Ch 15-71, Knowledge of the Rules.

In Matter of Reggie Langhorne, the arbitrator vacated the discipline of a player who had refused to take part in practice, holding that the player “was entitled to at some time to be placed on notice as to what consequences would flow from his refusal to participate in practice.”

Langhorne: “Any disciplinary program requires that individuals subject to that program understand, with reasonable certainty, what results will occur if they breach established rules.”

Daniel Wallach

Ricky Brown: Arbitrator Michael H. Beck vacated a fine imposed upon a player for missing a mandatory weigh-in and observed that “adequate notice is the fundamental concept in discipline cases.”

Ricky Brown (cont.): “A rule must clearly and unambiguously establish the scope of prohibited conduct, as well as the consequences of violations, in order to be enforceable.”

Daniel Wallach

BountyGate: Arbitrator Paul Tagliabue vacated discipline because of lack of notice and holding that “[a] sharp change in sanctions or discipline can often be seen as arbitrary and as an impediment rather than an instrument of change.”

Greg Hardy: Despite “multiple separate assaults” and a finding that the conduct at issue was “egregious,” Arbitrator Harold Henderson reduced Hardy’s suspension from 10 games to 4 because it violated the CBA requirement of advance notice that increased penalties would be applied.

Birch further stated that “the reality is that we have to make decisions that are fair and consistent with both the prior case law and the prior precedent . . .”

AS APPLIED TO WATSON CASE:

In declining to suspend Watson for the full year requested by the NFL, Judge Robinson determined that the league failed to provide NFL players with “fair notice” that non-violent conduct could be disciplined “more severely” than “violent” conduct.

ROBINSON: “It is undisputed that Mr. Watson’s conduct does not fall into the category of violent conduct that would require the minimum 6-game suspension.”

ROBINSON: “It is undisputed that prior cases involving non-violent sexual assault have resulted in discipline far less severe than what the NFL proposes here, with the most severe penalty being a 3-game suspension for a player who had been previously warned about his conduct.”

Daniel Wallach

ROBINSON: “While it may be entirely appropriate to more severely discipline players for non-violent sexual conduct, I do not believe it is appropriate to do so without notice of the extraordinary change this position portends for the NFL and its players.”

ROBINSON: “Here, the NFL is attempting to impose a more dramatic shift in its culture without the benefit of fair notice to – and consistency of consequence for – those in the NFL subject to the Policy.”

This will be the NFLPA’s lead argument on behalf of Deshaun Watson, bolstered by Sue Robinson’s analysis. Will it succeed? Although the NFLPA has won with this argument before, it lost with it in Deflategate and Peterson. Reality: labor arbitration awards are rarely overturned.

Which is why the venue of the federal court lawsuit is so important for Watson. With an uphill battle on any argument, getting the case heard outside the Second Circuit is paramount. Delaware? Ohio? I would go with DE.

As we go to press, Florio hears a settlement is still in play:

Appeals officer Peter Harvey continues to delay his decision in the Deshaun Watson case, apparently not because he’s undecided or procrastinating. Harvey is believed to be waiting to see whether the league and Watson can work out a deal.

The possibility of settlement remains viable, we’re told. Currently, it could go either way. As such things usually do. But this one truly falls into the toss-up category. We’ll wait and see if the NFL and Watson can find a middle ground.

PITTSBURGH

Rookie QB KENNY PICKETT did what he needed to, and a little bit more, in Pittsburgh’s preseason opener.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett made a statement in the team’s quarterback competition on Saturday night.

Pickett played the entire second half and completed 13 of 15 passes for 95 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions, including the game-winning touchdown pass with four seconds remaining as the Steelers won 32-25.

“It was very special,” Pickett said, via TheAthletic.com. “The whole night was special. I’ve been here for so long, but I’ve never been able to go to a Steelers game, and the first one I have as an NFL player, to finish that way in that stadium with a lot of family and friends there was awesome.”

The other two quarterbacks in the Steelers’ three-man competition, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph, also played well. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said after the game that he was pleased with how all three of his quarterbacks played. But he had to be particularly pleased with Pickett, who looked every bit the first-round pick he was.

Four years at Pitt – and he NEVER went to a Steelers game?

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Peter King notes an honor for legendary scribe John McClain:

John McClain is the charter member of the John McClain Media Wall of Fame in Houston. It recognizes those who cover the franchise and football in the area. Of course, he should be the first member of his own club. McClain covered football in Houston and Waco for 51 years, reported on the Oilers in their heyday and covered every Texans event since their inception for the Houston Chronicle.

He retired from the Chronicle March 31 at 70, but I’m not sure I’d call writing a web column, doing 10 weekly talk shows in six cities and three Texans podcasts and planning to be a sports columnist for a soon-to-be-announced local website, “retired.”

The Texans didn’t tell him they were doing this. One day in the spring they told him to come up to the press box for an event, and when he walked off the elevator he saw the John McClain Media Wall of Fame — he had no clue — and they asked him to say a few things.

“I can’t tell you the last time I got choked up — maybe when Old Yeller died,” he said Saturday night. “But I was blown away by this. It’s something else.”

INDIANAPOLIS

Albeit without RB JONATHAN TAYLOR, the Colts first-team offense did not do much in the preseason opener per Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com:

Loser: Colts first-team offense

The Indianapolis Colts are looked at as the favorite to win the AFC South and a possible sleeper to come out of the conference. While it’s admittedly very early, Indy’s starters didn’t look too hot against Buffalo’s second and third-team defense. Matt Ryan got the start with his new club and played the first four series of the game. Over that stretch, the Colts managed just three points and struggled to convert two fourth-and-4 attempts on back-to-back drives.

While star running back Jonathan Taylor wasn’t in the backfield, it’s not like Von Miller and other stars along Buffalo’s defense were in there either, so those absences may cancel each other out. Again, it’s early, the Colts are working in yet another new quarterback, and there’s plenty of time between now and Week 1. Still, it wasn’t the best first impression.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Peter King notes a quote from Jimmy Johnson:

“This may be the most talented Dolphins team since Wannstedt took them to the playoffs.”

— Former Dolphins coach Jimmy Johnson to the Miami Herald.

Dave Wannstedt, the Miami coach from 2000 to midway through 2004, coached playoff teams in 2000 and 2001.

NEW YORK JETS

QB ZACH WILSON is likely to miss the rest of the preseason, but his knee injury is not deemed too serious.  The Athletic:

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is traveling to Los Angeles for surgery on his right knee, the team announced Sunday. Wilson is scheduled to undergo the procedure Tuesday.

“He’s on his way to L.A. to have his procedure and then we wait,” coach Robert Saleh said during his press conference Sunday. “We’re optimistic, but he’s not out of the woods yet until they get in there and make a decision.”

Wilson suffered a bone bruise and torn meniscus in his right knee during the Jets’ first preseason game against the Eagles on Friday night, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter. If all goes according to New York’s plan, Wilson may not have to miss any regular-season games.

The second-year quarterback sustained the injuries on a non-contact play at the end of a scramble in the first quarter.

Wilson managed to walk to the sideline on his own after being attended to on the field and did not return. He also dealt with a right knee injury at the end of his rookie season.

THIS AND THAT

BILL BARNWELL’S BREAKOUTS

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com with 2 breakout candidates, sorted into five tiers (edited for space):

It is a national tradition to pick breakout players before each NFL season. I have resisted the urge for most of my time here at ESPN, but now I have succumbed to temptation. Nothing is more fun than being right about players being good. Nobody likes being wrong, and it’s no fun predicting that players will fall off or decline. In August, before we actually have to see players prove themselves in meaningful football games, it’s the right time to be wildly optimistic.

Let’s run through 25 breakout candidates in 2022. I’ve split the players into five archetypical tiers, because this would otherwise be a list of first-round picks from 2020 and 2021. (I’ve excluded rookies.) There are a few highly drafted players from the past couple of years, of course, but I wanted to focus on a variety of guys from different backgrounds at different points in their careers.

These are my opinions, so while I’ve tried to use as much evidence as possible to make my choices, there are other players who didn’t make this list but could qualify for yours. In some cases, I might think players have already broken out, with many of those guys showing up on my All-Underrated Team from last November.

Tier 1: Bench to Supernova

One player who barely played last season but might be an MVP candidate in 2022 belongs in a class of his own. He’s not like anybody else on this list, and he’s certainly not like the player he’s replacing in San Francisco …

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

There’s nobody in the league I’m more excited to see play 17 games than the new starting quarterback in San Francisco. We saw Lance take the field for 178 snaps a year ago with inconsistent returns, but I would essentially throw out those snaps in terms of what we’ll see going forward. The 49ers hadn’t committed to an offense with Lance, who was dealing with a broken finger on his right hand throughout the campaign while sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo. The Patrick Mahomes we saw make a spot start at the end of the 2017 season for the Chiefs looked nothing like the guy who torched the league in a full-time role in 2018.

On the personnel side, Lance is the most extreme example of the versatility and plausible deniability coach Kyle Shanahan attempts to get on the field with his ball carriers. When everyone is healthy, Shanahan’s 49ers have five eligible players who can either catch a pass, block or carry the football as a running back. Everyone needs to be able to make plays with the ball in their hands.

We saw Deebo Samuel prominently feature in that role last season, but the 49ers have given George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk carries in the past. Kyle Juszczyk does a little bit of everything, with Shanahan scheming him up for big plays as a receiver. San Francisco hasn’t been able to keep a running back healthy long enough to count on him as a long-term option, but its biggest investment at the position was signing Jerick McKinnon, who had been a solid receiver with the Vikings, to a four-year, $30 million contact in 2018. When Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk and Juszczyk were all on the field together in 2021, the 49ers generated .175 expected points added (EPA) per play, which would have comfortably been the league’s best offense over a full season.

The one position in which Shanahan didn’t have a player capable of threatening teams was quarterback, where Garoppolo was a conventional dropback passer. Garoppolo has his strengths, but he doesn’t threaten teams with his legs or create huge plays. From 2018 to ’21, no quarterback threw downfield less frequently; just 7.2% of his pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards downfield. Lance did so on 18.3% of his 71 attempts a year ago, which would have led the league over a larger sample.

– – –

I’m not sure if Shanahan saw this on tape in 2020 or saw it coming as a solution in the years to come, but having a mobile quarterback like Lance is the ultimate weapon against this defense. Left one-on-one against Garoppolo, most defensive ends were able to blow up plays. Left alone against Lance, those same ends are going to get embarrassed in open space. He can run past those ends and continue the boot concept, either scrambling for significant gains or finding receivers at one of three different levels.

– – –

Of course, what sounds great on paper might not play out in reality. Lance and his playmakers need to stay healthy. He will need to do enough with raw physical traits and his abilities as a vertical passer to make up for his inexperience throwing into NFL-sized windows at the intermediate level. Garoppolo was at his best working the middle of the field, where Lance posted a 25.6 QBR and minus-16.7% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on 33 attempts last season. We could get many spectacular moments from Lance in 2022, but they’ll be mixed in with growing pains.

As was the case with Mahomes, projecting Lance to be a superstar in Year 2 is about both the player and what’s around him. Mahomes was prioritized by the best quarterback developer of his generation in the draft and got a year to redshirt. He stepped onto the field with the best group of playmakers in football. He might have been an instant MVP candidate with the Jaguars, Giants or Bears, but he had his best chance of succeeding with Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in Kansas City.

Likewise, Lance is the perfect fit for Shanahan, whose best quarterback as an offensive playcaller has been Matt Ryan. Lance unlocks elements of the offense that simply weren’t possible in years past and makes life easier for everyone else on the field. He gets to play with the league’s best left tackle and the third-best set of playmakers in football heading into the season. Lance is about to have a special season.

Tier 2: Pro Bowler to Superstar

Here, I’m considering players who were either named to the Pro Bowl or who should have been named to the Pro Bowl at any point over the past couple of seasons. These guys are capable of becoming All-Pros and among the best players at their respective positions in 2022. Let’s start with a former No. 2 overall pick …

Chase Young, Edge, Washington Commanders

We’re collectively sleeping on Young, who was a deserving Defensive Rookie of the Year pick in 2020 on a 7-9 Washington team that somehow won the NFC East. He played better as his rookie season went along, racking up four sacks, five tackles for loss and eight quarterback knockdowns over his final six games. It was fair to expect him to make a stratospheric leap last season.

Instead, it was a lost year. Young had 1.5 sacks and just four quarterback knockdowns across nine games before tearing his right ACL. Advanced metrics were a little more optimistic, as Young’s 18.9% pass rush win rate would have ranked as one of the 20 best among edge rushers if he had played enough to qualify, but he was supposed to have an star-turning season. He did not.

I’m optimistic for 2022.

Coach Ron Rivera has said Young won’t be ready to start the season, but we could see one of the league’s best pass-rushers hit new highs for the Commanders during the second half.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Rookie tight ends simply don’t do what Pitts did in 2021. Adjusting for league size, his 1,026-yard season means he had about 0.8% of the possible receiving yardage in the NFL last season. To put that in context, only three tight ends in NFL history have garnered a higher percentage of available receiving yards around the league during their rookie season than Pitts, who was ahead of Hall of Fame-caliber players such as Rob Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez.

About the only thing Pitts didn’t do was score touchdowns, with the No. 4 overall pick scoring once on 110 targets. Only 14 of those targets came in the red zone, and with him garnering one of the lowest target rates in the league inside the 20-yard line, we can probably guess teams were already looking out for him in those situations. Even if that continues to be true, Pitts should score more often by sheer chance in 2022.

I’m not optimistic about Atlanta’s chances this season, but it has a pair of building blocks in Pitts and cornerback A.J. Terrell, a fellow first-round pick who enjoyed this sort of second-year leap to superstardom a year ago.

Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Kansas City Chiefs

Brown made it to the Pro Bowl for the third consecutive season, but that might have been by default in a conference where so many left tackles either got injured or didn’t play on successful teams. He was good, but after spending the full year on the left side for the first time, he has the chance to be great in 2022. The prize for a career year would likely be the largest contract for any offensive lineman in league history, so Brown has every motivation to keep Patrick Mahomes upright in the months to come.

DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers

We might need some help from Baker Mayfield for this one. Moore has been one of the steadiest producers in football despite playing with replacement-level quarterbacks over the past three seasons.

Pat Surtain II, CB, Denver Broncos

Even the best cornerbacks often struggle as rookies.

Well, Surtain might have been a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback as a rookie. Entering the starting lineup in Week 2 for an injured Ronald Darby, he played a key role for the Broncos and never gave it back.

Coverage statistics are messy, but just about everyone agrees Surtain was great.

Surtain might already be a superstar. As it is, if he improves on what we saw a year ago, he could challenge Ramsey to be the league’s best.

Rashan Gary, Edge, Green Bay Packers

After two years in a situational role, Gary was afforded a full-time job by Za’Darius Smith’s back injury last season and looked like a No. 1 edge rusher.

With Smith now in Minnesota, Gary is in position to become one of the league’s most impactful edge rushers.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

There certainly have been moments in which Herbert has looked like the best quarterback in football over his first two seasons. His arm strength has given him the ability to fit passes into impossible windows and complete passes other signal-callers wouldn’t even dare to attempt. Every one of his receivers is a live target on each dropback. He has exhibited an ability to raise his game in key moments, with that incredible series of fourth-down conversions against the Raiders in Week 18 serving as a prominent recent example.

Herbert has struggled for week-to-week or drive-to-drive consistency at times, but he was remarkably consistent over his first two seasons.

Tier 3: Solid Starter to Pro Bowler

This third tier is for every-down players who are either underappreciated or still developing into impact players at the professional level. They can certainly rise past the Pro Bowl level and challenge for All-Pro work, but I’m comfortable expecting them to hit some level of significant growth this upcoming season.

That starts with a second-year quarterback who entered the league with big expectations …

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

I’ll throw another highly drafted quarterback into the mix before we hit less notable players. Count me in among the people who watched Jaguars tape last year and came away thinking Lawrence was placed into an utterly impossible situation by dismal coaching. \

New coach Doug Pederson was able to turn a totally dysfunctional Philadelphia offense into a Super Bowl winner over two seasons with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. Lawrence was a much better prospect than either player coming out of college, and he showed just enough in 2021 to make me hopeful there’s an instant superstar waiting to come out.

We’ve seen great prospects quickly turn around moribund franchises when given the right coaching, including Andrew Luck with the Colts in 2012 and Joe Burrow with the Bengals a year ago. Freed from the worst NFL coaching situation of the past 20 years, I’m counting on Lawrence to do something similar this season.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots

Undrafted free agent? This is more like it. The Patriots continually have attempted to add pieces at receiver, but they somehow end up relying more and more on their slot target. They spent big to sign Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last offseason, but it was Meyers who led the team in most receiving categories. He was targeted on more than 24% of his routes and dropped just one of his 125 targets.

This year, it’s trade addition DeVante Parker and rookie second-round pick Tyquan Thornton, neither of whom play similarly to Meyers. To follow in Hunter Renfrow’s footsteps to go from being a good slot receiver to a great wide receiver, he has to do more in key situations. Renfrow added more after the catch to get above 2.0 yards per route run and became a red zone star, where he scored nine times. Meyers had famously struggled to score before getting in the endzone twice last season.

Camp reports about the Patriots’ offense are ominous, but if anyone is a reliable safety valve the team can rely upon, it’s Meyers.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

The Browns already are paying Njoku like a superstar; they franchised him earlier this year before giving him a four-year, $54.8 million contract.

The Browns likely plan to get more out of Njoku by simply using him more often.  With Cleveland thin at pass-catcher after cutting Austin Hooper and Jarvis Landry, Njoku could figure into a much larger share of the passing game.

Jevon Holland, S, Miami Dolphins

Holland made an instant impact after entering the NFL a year ago. The Dolphins used the second-round pick as a rotational player during the first month, but after entering the starting lineup for good in Week 5, Holland missed just 17 of the remaining 775 defensive snaps of the season.

By several key measures, the Dolphins were a top-10 pass defense with Holland on the field and one of the worst pass defenses without their standout safety.

Holland played as both the free safety and strong safety. On 65 snaps as a pass-rusher, he generated 2.5 sacks, 7 knockdowns and 12 initial pressures, which he accumulated at the fourth-highest rate in football for defenders with at least 50 pass rush snaps. He topped it all off by knocking away 10 passes, the fourth most of any player in football.

Holland might be a version of Jamal Adams who trades some pass-rushing effectiveness for more range in coverage, which would be an extremely valuable player.

Kristian Fulton, CB, Tennessee Titans

The Titans signed Bud Dupree to spark their defense a year ago, but while they improved from 24th to sixth in scoring defense, it wasn’t because of Dupree, who had three sacks in an injury-hit campaign. Instead, Tennessee’s homegrown draft picks took a step forward.

Kwity Paye, Edge, Indianapolis Colts

Paye looked like a different player during the second half of his rookie season. He didn’t rack up a single quarterback knockdown until Week 9, when he had two in a win over the Jets.

From that point forward, he was more noticeable, putting up four sacks and eight knockdowns.

Tier 4: Rotational Player to Solid Starter

These are players who weren’t consistent starters for their teams last season. They might have Pro Bowl potential, but even emerging as an above-average starter for most of the season in something close to an every-down role would be a welcome development. Let’s start with the defending champs, who will have to replace a cornerstone of the Sean McVay era …

Joe Noteboom, OT, Los Angeles Rams

Andrew Whitworth was supposed to be a short-term solution after signing as a 35-year-old in Los Angeles in 2017, but the former Bengals standout lasted five seasons before retiring after last year’s Super Bowl victory. The veteran missed nine total games over those five years, seven of which came in 2020.

The Rams’ swing tackle for most of that stretch was Noteboom, who signed a three-year, $40 million deal to stay with the organization this offseason. He wasn’t quite as good as Whitworth by ESPN’s pass block win rate metric in 2020, but over his longest stretch of playing time, he ranked 17th among offensive tackles by PBWR.

With Matthew Stafford already impacted by a balky elbow, the Rams will rely on Noteboom to keep their veteran quarterback as healthy as possible during their championship defense.

Ernest Jones, LB, Los Angeles Rams

The champs can have a breakout player on the defensive side of the ball, too. A third-round pick in 2021, Jones barely played during the first seven weeks of the season. Inserted into the starting lineup in Week 8 after the Rams traded Kenny Young, Jones seemed to improve with each week.

He isn’t at this level yet, but at his best, he looked like another NFC West linebacker drafted in the third round: 49ers star Fred Warner. Now playing alongside former Seahawks veteran Bobby Wagner, Jones has the potential to be a building block for the Rams.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Cleveland Browns

Few linebackers seem as capable of the spectacular as Owusu-Koramoah, who played 65% of the defensive snaps in his 14 games for the Browns a year ago. The Browns mostly spotted him on first and second downs before taking him off the field in passing situations, but his physical traits were obvious as he attacked the line of scrimmage.

Dennis Gardeck, Edge, Arizona Cardinals

I wrote about Gardeck’s spectacular 2020 season as a small sample pass-rusher in my luxuries column a couple of weeks ago. He wasn’t anywhere near as effective while battling injuries in 2021, but if you can rack up seven sacks on 69 pass-rush attempts, you’re worth a second look.

Gardeck’s role should expand with the departure of Chandler Jones to the Raiders.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions

Swift is going to be exciting because he can catch plenty of passes. The Lions threw him the ball on more than 25% of his routes a year ago, which was one of the league’s highest rates. If he can generate more first downs as a receiver after mustering just 18 on 78 targets a year ago, he will be a valuable playmaker for Detroit. If he does more as a runner between the tackles in 2022, he could be a valuable playmaker by anybody’s definition of the word.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Bateman is one of the most obvious picks for this year’s list, if in part because the Ravens don’t have any other options at receiver beyond Mark Andrews.

Tier 5: Post-Hype Breakouts

Finally, I’ll finish with players who don’t really fit into any of the above groups. These players either had a standout season earlier in their career before falling off or were expected to break out and failed to do so. I’m expecting them to look more like the players people were hoping to see in years past during the 2022 campaign. We’ll start with an intriguing offseason acquisition in Kansas City …

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Now, moving to the Chiefs, Smith-Schuster is playing with Patrick Mahomes. He gives the Chiefs a target alongside Travis Kelce for when teams try to defend them with two-high coverages. For whatever people who don’t pay attention want to say about his TikTok presence, he’s a tough receiver capable of attacking defenses on slants and crossing routes and should have plenty of space to operate if defenses want to park two safeties in the parking lot. He also had plenty of success attacking down the sideline on fades and back-shoulder throws in 2018 against one-on-one coverage, which he’ll see plenty of in Kansas City.

Is it fair to chalk up three disappointing seasons to subpar quarterback play? Not entirely. Smith-Schuster has struggled with injuries, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether 2018 was just an incredible outlier as the second receiver in a two-man offense. I don’t think we’ll see him hit 1,400 yards again, but I would expect an efficient, effective return to form from one of the league’s most misunderstood players.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

I’ll throw another wideout into the mix with Aiyuk, who entered last season as the 49ers’ assumed breakout candidate. Instead, Aiyuk sat on the bench for most of the Week 1 win over the Lions and didn’t become an every-down player on a weekly basis until Week 7. Deebo Samuel ended up having a stunning season, and Aiyuk needed a pair of big performances in Week 17 and 18 to get his season-long totals over what we saw in 2020.

After reports that Aiyuk upset Kyle Shanahan in camp last summer, the 2020 first-rounder has received glowing reviews for his work this preseason. I also think Trey Lance’s propensity to throw downfield will benefit Aiyuk, who didn’t connect with Jimmy Garoppolo on a single pass more than 20 yards downfield in 2021. Aiyuk had three such completions in 2020, but two came from Nick Mullens.

I’m not sure Aiyuk can get the volume to have an All-Pro type of season. Shanahan wants to run the ball. The 49ers are loaded with playmakers, and they’ve typically played at one of the slowest paces in the league. Then again, Samuel just rolled off a season with 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns with Garoppolo at quarterback. It wouldn’t be shocking if Aiyuk reclaimed the role as San Francisco’s No. 1 option in the passing game.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

There’s always a risk in counting on running backs coming off serious injuries, but Dobbins is a better bet than most of the alternatives. Dobbins tore his left ACL as opposed to his Achilles, and he has had a full year to heal after he went down during training camp last year.

Mike Onwenu, OL, New England Patriots

Onwenu, a sixth-round pick in 2020, was a revelation as a rookie. The Patriots started him for 16 games and moved him around the lineup, getting solid-or-better play at left guard, right guard and right tackle. He settled in most often at the latter spot, but with Trent Brown returning to the team in 2021, it looked like the 24-year-old would move to Joe Thuney’s vacated spot at left guard.

Instead, Onwenu continued to rotate through the lineup, just without the success. He was forced into work at right tackle for stretches because of injuries, but the Patriots were underwhelmed by his performance. He was close to an every-down player during the first half of the season, but he played approximately 29% of New England’s offensive snaps during the second half of the campaign.

My suspicion is Onwenu will be at his best when he lands at one spot on the right side of the line on a full-time basis. With Shaq Mason traded to the Buccaneers, a spot seemed to open for Onwenu at right guard, but the early training camp reports haven’t been promising. He has split time with James Ferentz and the immaculately named Arlington Hambright this summer, so it doesn’t appear that the third-year player has a starting job locked up.

I’m still optimistic about his chances of being a valuable lineman, but by all accounts, New England is a mess on offense at the moment.

Charles Omenihu, Edge, San Francisco 49ers

Omenihu had four sacks and 16 knockdowns in a situational role for the Texans during their ill-fated 2020 campaign, but the new Houston brain trust didn’t see him as an important part of their rebuild. The 49ers traded for Omenihu at the November deadline a year ago, but he saw just 136 defensive snaps after the move.

Now, Omenihu has enjoyed a full offseason working with 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who has coaxed career seasons out of players who have struggled in other places, including Arden Key, Kerry Hyder and Cassius Marsh.

Omenihu isn’t going to take snaps away from Nick Bosa or Arik Armstead, but he might be able to generate five sacks and a handful of pressures in a situational role. Teams that have players like that as their second- or third-string edge rushers make it impossible for opposing quarterbacks to rest. One of those teams — the 2019 49ers — nearly rode that sort of deep defensive line to a Super Bowl victory.