GREEN BAY

Comments on QB JORDAN LOVE (Tier 4) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

One start, three career touchdown passes, three interceptions and 83 total pass attempts aren’t much to go on. That is why Love got so many Tier 4 votes — not enough information.

“We have no idea what this guy is,” an offensive coach said. “My initial read is that he doesn’t process the game well enough. I don’t see a natural, smooth, instinctive player, the way he reacts to the defense.”

Love is not the only one under evaluation here.

“We are going to see how good of a coach Matt LaFleur is, how good he was with game management on offense, how good he is in his 2-minute offense, because everyone who has any experience with Aaron Rodgers knows he was in charge of that,” an exec said.

Growing pains should be expected. The Packers finished 6-10 in Rodgers’ first season as a starter, although Rodgers ranked among the top 10 in passer rating and EPA per pass play (he was 11th in Total QBR).

“You’ve got Jaire Alexander out there saying Love is the best QB in the league, but those are pretty big shoes to fill,” a GM said. “I haven’t seen enough to feel comfortable going into the season like they are, saying this is our guy. I would be a little hesitant if I were them to do that, but it is what it is. That is where they took him and where they are.”

MINNESOTA

On his way to Bustville (or at least a home in the nearby suburbs), WR N’KEAL HARRY will make a detour, he hopes permanently, to Minnesota.  Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com:

The Minnesota Vikings bolstered their receiver depth Sunday by signing veteran receiver N’Keal Harry following a workout at their practice facility, the team announced.

Harry will help backfill a group that has been practicing without two injured receivers. Jalen Nailor hasn’t participated since suffering a lower leg injury during the first practice of training camp July 26. Trishton Jackson also suffered a lower leg injury last week.

Harry, 25, played for three seasons with the New England Patriots after they made him a first-round draft pick in 2019. His time there was a disappointment as he managed 57 receptions over 33 games in that span, and he was traded to the Chicago Bears in 2022 for a seventh-round draft pick.

The Vikings now have four former first-round picks in their receiver group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Reagor and now Harry.

DALLAS

Jori Epstein of YahooSports.com looks at the Cowboys’ plans for QB DAK PRESCOTT in 2023, with an emphasis on decreasing interceptions:

Dallas Cowboys players keep hearing the question about pass plays.

“What’s the step count?” coaches ask, wanting to confirm how many steps quarterback Dak Prescott will take when it’s time to execute the pass concept they’re discussing.

But the question is not being directed only to Prescott, his fellow quarterbacks or even meetings that include at least one QB.

Cowboys receivers, rather, are now tasked with tracking this information.

“This is the first year we’ve really had to key in on how many steps he’s taking so we know how fast the ball is coming out,” sixth-year receiver Michael Gallup told Yahoo Sports. “They harp on that every day.”

The Cowboys are shifting their offensive system more drastically than they have since Prescott earned his starting role in 2016. To say Prescott’s league-high 15 interceptions last season prompted this move would oversimplify the Cowboys’ direction. But as head coach Mike McCarthy assumes play-calling for the first time since arriving in Dallas in 2020, he’s evolving from the principles that he had allowed now-Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to maintain as they prioritized system continuity for Prescott’s development.

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Dallas has worked to still incorporate some principles and terminology from Prescott and teammates’ productive recent years. But McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer believe introducing more West Coast principles will bolster ball security and decisiveness.

They believe this shift will increase how often quarterbacks and receivers are on the same page.

More than five weeks remain before that principle will truly be tested in the Cowboys’ season opener at the New York Giants. But Prescott, Cowboys coaches and Cowboys receivers this past week explained the source of their optimism in a series of interviews with Yahoo Sports.

“I can run my routes more comfortably knowing that he’s done with his drop or that he’s not getting touched or that he’s protected,” two-time Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb told Yahoo Sports. “I feel like the speed that we have in this room, the guys that can track the ball, the mentality [will help us] get open, create separation. It just can’t be too early. Because then it’s quickening up his steps and it’s a whole different situation.

“Being on the same timing as the quarterback is very important for us.”

Picture a receiver who’s tasked with running his route 12 yards deep. He then sees a cornerback hovering at 12 but open space at the 9. The receiver breaks 3 yards early, convinced the decision will help him get open. But the quarterback expects his receiver elsewhere.

“The No. 1 mistake a receiver or skill player will make is they’re short on their route,” Schottenheimer told Yahoo Sports. “They’re open. They want the ball, they all do. So, ‘I’m going to look.’

“If a receiver doesn’t understand how many steps the quarterback is taking, then there’s no time clock in his brain.”

The difference between Prescott taking a three-step drop that will launch the ball to its target in 1.678 seconds versus a five-step drop that skews closer to 1.921, Schottenheimer gives as an example, can be the difference between a completion and interception.

As a fourth-round rookie in 2016, Prescott supplanted 10-year starter Tony Romo in large part because of the ball security that accompanied his productivity. Prescott threw 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions as the Cowboys finished the regular season first in the NFC. Ball security gave Prescott job security.

While his game would oscillate more over the next five years, Prescott’s 1.7% interception clip from 2016-21 still ranked 12th among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.

Then came 2022. No quarterback threw more interceptions than Prescott’s 15; none with four starts or more delivered to the other team more frequently than Prescott’s 3.8% interception rate. Each interception, including two more in a divisional-round playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers, was undoubtedly costly. And yet, PFF data call into question how concerned the Cowboys should actually be about their quarterback.

The advanced analytics site discerns between turnover-worthy plays (plays with a high-percentage chance to result in turnovers) and interceptions. While turnover-worthy plays resulted in interceptions 77.3% of the time across the league last season, Prescott’s turnover-worthy plays were intercepted 88.9% of the time. Further, since Prescott entered the league, no quarterback has had more dropped passes intercepted than his nine (Matt Ryan tied). Is Prescott’s decision-making the sole concern?

Perhaps it makes sense, then, that the Cowboys don’t emerge from their giveaway-happy season wanting to play conservatively. They instead want to streamline quarterback and receiver processing and to better integrate situational awareness into aggressiveness as McCarthy returns to play-calling.

“I keep saying ‘aggressive nature,’ but it’s aggressive in the play calls with a great purpose in it,” Prescott told Yahoo Sports. “‘Hey, if that’s not there, you know the reads, just get down to it. Very clear and concise about getting to a play that I feel most comfortable with. If I don’t like that look, whether it’s a run play or a pass play, I have so many plays and things in my back pocket that I’m almost obligated to get to because I know what he’s looking for in his plays.

“If the [expected look] is not the defense that I get, I’ll feel comfortable and know: ‘Hey, I need to get to this play because it’s better for everybody.’”

When new information is introduced into a game plan, there are two most likely outcomes. The first: Players better understand their responsibilities, they communicate accordingly and they produce more efficiently. The second: Players better understand their responsibilities, but the influx of information is nonetheless overwhelming in the heat of the game, so players can’t play as fast because their thinking impedes their ability to play freely.

The danger of slowing down is even more pronounced when the West Coast system — or the “Texas Coast” system, as Prescott jokingly called the Cowboys’ West Coast blend — is tied as heavily to precision in timing as it is.

The Cowboys will be tested early with a Week 2 matchup against the New York Jets’ pass defense, which ranked third in the NFL in 2022. The Los Angeles Chargers’ No. 7 pass defense follows in Week 6, and soon after a pair of division games each against the Philadelphia Eagles’ No. 1 pass defense and Washington Commanders’ No. 4.

So the Cowboys are drilling receiver route depth intensely at training camp, Prescott and his receivers communicating extensively in post-practice film review sessions about what each saw on a play and how that translated to success or failure. They’re discussing how a new set of pass-protection rules influences the time Prescott has to throw.

Prescott and his receivers realize that while McCarthy and Schottenheimer believe this structure will better align them, they’ll still need to stay nimble and communicative when games’ imperfect realities hit.

“We’re going to coach in the classroom, but also out there I don’t want them saying, ‘Oh, I got to get to 20 every time,’ ‘I got to be in the alley’ or ‘I got to be on the inside edge,’” Schottenheimer said. “This is still people moving, and so we want them to play free and play fast.”

That’s where chemistry and reps will come in, Prescott saying he “trained his ass off this offseason” working this summer in at least four different states with a talented receiving corps highlighted by Lamb, Gallup and veteran Brandin Cooks, who has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in six of his nine career seasons. The Cowboys also tout the jump second-year receiver Jalen Tolbert has made. They praise rookie seventh-rounder Jalen Brooks as a training camp standout. Expect three tight ends in their first two career years to compete for further snaps.

The combination convinces Schottenheimer that Prescott’s interceptions constitute “a storyline that I expect is not going to be a storyline this year.”

And Prescott is energized by the shift in approach, saying he’s as confident and happy as he has been in the league.

“Just crazy amount of details,” Prescott said. “Guys are on the same page, just being very open and communicating.

“That has been a world of difference.”

ATLANTA

At some point, the Falcons may abandon position designations for their offensive skill players.  Peter King:

Now, I can’t tell you if Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder will be good enough to run an efficient offense; he’s a 62-percent passer in his five college/pro seasons, and he’ll have to be better to have a long NFL life. But I will guarantee this: There will not be a more diverse, harder-to-defend offense in the NFC this year than coach Arthur Smith’s team. Positionless football is the story here.

Adding first-round weapon Bijan Robinson—he ran out of the backfield exclusively in Friday’s practice, but he’ll certainly be used in the slot and split wide—seems almost unfair. This comes after Jonnu Smith, who played under former Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, rejoined him in free agency. With Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London all in move slots, Arthur Smith will be limited only by his imagination.

“That’s who I am—a positionless player,” Jonnu Smith said.

He’ll have company. With five legit Swiss Army Knives, this could be the league’s most entertaining offense to watch—at least the most entertaining east of Kansas City.

– – –

Above, I presented the case for the Falcons to be the 2023 run-and-gun-and-fun team in the NFL, with four targets between 6-2 and 6-6 for Desmond Ridder (Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson). Makes all the sense in the world for a passer who’s not the most accurate to be able to throw short and intermediate into the land of the giants. And into the land of Bijan (Robinson, the very versatile eighth pick in the draft).

But let’s examine the case of 2019 and 2020 Tennessee play-caller Arthur Smith. Smith called runs for Derrick Henry 386 times in 2019 (including playoffs) and 396 times in 2020. The results: 4,053 rushing yards in two seasons, and 35 rushing TDs in 35 games. That’s quite possibly the most dominant two-season run a back has ever had. Two years, 782 rushes. My, my.

Which brings us to the 2023 Falcons backfield. Last year, rookie Tyler Allgeier and Patterson combined for 1,730 rushing yards, and they’ve added the biggest rushing/receiving weapon in the draft in Robinson. Atlanta had a 55-45 run-pass ratio last year. With Robinson, what could it be this year?

This mystery to the outside world, I’m sure, absolutely delights Smith. He loves shifts and motions. He loves positionless players. And now you know how much he loves running the ball. With a quarterback no one’s sure about yet, leaving his play-calling options open is the smartest thing Smith can do in 2023.

CAROLINA

It will be QB BRYCE YOUNG starting the preseason opener.  David Newton of ESPN.com:

Carolina Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young will start Saturday’s preseason opener against the New York Jets, coach Frank Reich said Sunday.

Reich, however, did not commit to how many snaps or series the top pick of the 2023 NFL draft would get in the game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“I do have an idea,” Reich said. “There is flexibility in the plan. There has to be. That’s just being smart about it. We have a general idea how many plays we want to get through the whole preseason, but that can be adjusted by 10 or 20 percent depending on how things go.”

The plan to play Young shouldn’t come as a surprise. General manager Scott Fitterer said on the day players reported to camp that Young needs reps.

“We’re not going to put him out there before he’s ready,” Fitterer said at the time. “But he needs those reps.”

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers isn’t expected to play. Coach Robert Saleh recently said the four-time MVP would play only in the team’s final preseason game against the New York Giants if he felt the starters needed work.

Rodgers will get most of his work in joint practices against the Panthers on Wednesday and Thursday at Wofford College in Spartanburg.

Young also is expected to get extensive work during the joint practices, marking the first time he’ll face an opposing NFL defense.

“I’m super excited for that,” he said on Saturday.

Young also is excited for the opportunity to meet Rodgers for the first time.

“He’s somebody I’ve watched and studied and looked up to a lot throughout my life,” said Young, who added that he modeled some of his game after Rodgers, in terms of arm angles and throwing off balance. “I have a ton of respect for his game.”

Reich said Wednesday’s joint practice will be heavy against the Jets, with the second lighter as the teams break into some individual drills. He hopes that reduces the chances of a fight, noting most fights in joint practices break out on the second day.

“The fighting thing I just cannot stand,” Reich said. “It’s just useless. I mean, I get it. It’s a very emotional game. Hopefully, we’ll be pros about it. Listen, the guys don’t want to fight. Everybody is a very prideful competitor.

“So we will do everything in our power to promote non-fighting.”

Peter King on Bryce’s brain:

Wofford College, Spartanburg, one night early in Panthers’ training camp, offensive players and coaches in a meeting room, a vital two hours for a new coaching staff and an offense with potentially new players at every skill position. “Pizza and Protections,” it’s called, with a stack of hot pizzas on hand to make it a relaxed setting. How will this offensive line block regular and “exotic” fronts, and what terminology will be used to call it in the huddle? New coaches from different systems— head coach Frank Reich, line coach James Campen, QB coach Josh McCown, coordinator Thomas Brown—have to agree on the details and verbiage and adopt them. Important night.

Before the meeting, Campen and McCown approached Reich. “Coach,” McCown said, “do you mind if Bryce facilitates? He wants to do it.”

Bryce Young, the rookie quarterback, 22 years old, wanted to run the meeting with 35 players and nine coaches. Reich was stunned to hear this. But he figured, Why not? This guy is more advanced than any rookie I’ve coached.

“How’d he do?” I asked.

“Phenomenal. Flawless. Flawless. He knew everything,” Reich said. “It was a pretty amazing night.”

NEW ORLEANS

With players like WR JAMESON WILLIAMS of the Lions getting six-game suspensions for the crime of betting on non-NFL events from a designated “team facility” – we have to agree with Peter King on this:

I think Alvin Kamara getting a three-game ban for his role in that violent fight in Las Vegas is a favorable result for him and the Saints. I thought it would be more.

LAS VEGAS

Comments on QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO (Tier 3) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Voters want to see how Garoppolo performs for Las Vegas without Kyle Shanahan’s system and without an elite defense on his side. They also want to see him stay on the field.

“He’s been with teams that can run it, and they do have a good back (Josh Jacobs), and they will probably hand it off a fair amount to take some pressure off, which could be good for Jimmy,” an offensive coach said. “He’s a 3, but a good 3. Plays like a 2 a decent amount of the time.”

Garoppolo’s knowledge of coach Josh McDaniels’ offense should help him. But will the offense itself help him?

“This is going to be a whole different world for Jimmy back with Josh because now completions are first and the run game, yes, Josh is going to call it, but they don’t live in the wide zone, making plays off the wide zone,” a head coach said. “I think this is going to be a true test of Jimmy. Where exactly are you at in your career as an NFL quarterback? Then you throw in the durability factor.”

Coaches think Shanahan’s system protects quarterbacks by limiting their exposure to more difficult dropback passing situations. Coaches also think the limited exposure to dropback passing makes San Francisco and its quarterbacks less prepared for dropback passing when it is required.

“Jimmy is obviously a system guy, probably on the lower end of the 2s,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m sure a lot of people will have him as a 3. He can make throws on the intermediate and short level consistently well.”

BALTIMORE

WR ODELL BECKHAM Jr. convinces Peter King that he has a new maturity:

Biggest surprise in two weeks on the camp trail: the psyche and maturity of new Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

I do not know Beckham well. I hadn’t talked to him in several years, since the Giants’ days. I came here thinking I’d write about Lamar Jackson being back in the fold and trying to recapture the staying power and electricity of his four-year-old MVP season. Time for that will come this summer. But I found Beckham to be a compelling story—30 going on 45, a different man than the one many in football didn’t care for and presumed was living out his NFL days with one last payday. But he’s been a different Beckham in his first Baltimore offseason. He’s turned into a leader, one Raven said. Totally unselfish, an exec said.

We met in the Ravens’ indoor facility, post-practice on Wednesday. Coach John Harbaugh had given him a veteran rest day. He’s dyed his hair purple. I found Beckham calm and thoughtful, seeming to understand the road doesn’t go on forever, and wouldn’t his legacy be best served if in his last stop he could make a slew of explosive plays and be a wise man too?

“In my career, even when I was the young guy, I was always looked [at] as an older guy because of what I accomplished early in my career,” Beckham said. “I feel that part of the reason why I was brought here was to be that person for those younger guys. Try to show them the good and bad, because, as you know, I’ve already been through a lot of the bad. I believe I have the blueprint for what to do and what not to do, and I just try and share that with them.

“I think my biggest thing now is the way that I listen. I’ll sit there and just listen. Hear them out. When I was younger, even if I respected a person, if someone’s talking and talking and telling me information, I think it’s hard to lead that way. Everybody’s story’s different. You have to understand a person, really understand them, before you tell them how to do something, I think. It’s kinda cool. I actually love the role.”

I wondered about Beckham’s influence on the new Beckham, so to speak, first-round pick Zay Flowers. What an impressive player. His separation is already other-worldly. Through the offseason Beckham has been a resource for him, even though Flowers is smart and mature himself.

“You know that question people are always asking—what would you tell your 21-year-old self? When I think of the question, my journey isn’t Zay’s. You have to tell your 21-year-old self you’re gonna go through your own journey. There’s no manual for what you’re gonna go through. You’re gonna have a lot of f—ups. You’re gonna learn from them. You don’t wanna make the big mistake, but if you do, you usually grow from it and get stronger.”

“Ever wish you could change one or two things about your career, your life?” I said.

“If I could go back,” Beckham said, “would I like to have a career where the first three years of my career could have been repeated? Yeah, of course. I’d be sitting here, 30 years old, with 100 touchdowns and 14,000 yards. I wish I could’ve never been injured, never shattered my ankle or came back too early from a high ankle sprain. But those are things I now have to live with. I can’t live in regret for the rest of my life.”

Beckham’s been chasing his 22-year-old self for the last six seasons. At 22, 23 and 24, he had 1,300-yard receiving seasons. He hasn’t had a season of 1,300 yards in any of the six seasons since, mostly due to injuries. It seems highly unlikely after all these years, but Beckham thinks he can turn the clock back, and the Ravens handed him a huge payday–$15 million guaranteed for 2023, in part to appease the then-unsigned Lamar Jackson—to chase his best self too.

His best self. “That’s how I felt when I was at the Rams [in the Super Bowl season, 2021] and I wasn’t even getting the ball that much. [Ravens receiver Rashod] Bateman asked me the other day, ‘Did you feel like yourself at the Rams? Because it really looked like you were back to having fun. They were playing you man-to-man and you were catching every pass.’ That’s how I felt. Unfortunately, I was playing knowing I was probably gonna have to have ACL surgery.”

Beckham had a 113-yard receiving game in the 2021 NFC title game against the Niners, then scored an early TD against the Bengals in the Super Bowl. He told me the Super Bowl was supposed to be the reaffirmation of his greatness.

“People have no idea what I was actually gonna do that day,” Beckham said. “It was gonna be the day where I catch 15 balls, maybe 250 yards. The gameplan was for me. We would’ve beat ‘em 42-17.”

He hasn’t played a football game in the 18 months since. He’s had two ACL surgeries since turning 28. No one knows what he’ll give the Ravens, but he said he feels healthy and ready to be a major factor. “I think that there’s still some dust on that ’76 Mustang that we need to work out, but the car runs beautifully.”

The one thing he says he realizes, as he prepares to play football for the first time in his thirties, is how much he still wants to play. “I feel like I’m walking that fine line of gratitude and happy to be healthy and playing football … but also I still wanna be great. Like, bad. I dropped a pass the other day and I was pissed about it. Really pissed. If I thought I didn’t care about this game, that dropped showed me no, I care. I absolutely care the same way I always have.”

CLEVELAND

A note from Peter King:

Great note from longtime Browns beat man Tony Grossi: Of the 371 men enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Joe Thomas played on teams with the worst winning percentage. Thomas’ Browns teams were 48-119 in the games he played, a win percentage of .287.

And he went into the Hall in his first year of eligibility!

– – –

Comments on QB DESHAUN WATSON (Tier 2) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Only Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr suffered greater year-over-year drops than Watson suffered in average tier vote.

“I’ll tell you what, when we played him, it was bad,” a defensive coach said. “It was real shaky.”

Only Mayfield and Joe Flacco ranked lower than Watson last season in EPA per pass play among 39 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts.

“Everybody thinks, ‘OK, his rust will wear off after a couple weeks,’” a defensive coordinator said. “That guy hadn’t played in what, a year and some change? That’s a hard thing. He was one of my 1s last year. I would put him as a 2 with the probability that he will be a 1 again.”

Watson played the final six games last season after serving a suspension stemming from 24 civil lawsuits accusing him of lewd behavior during massage sessions. Watson denied wrongdoing, but then apologized and reached settlements with most of his accusers.

“That position is the hardest position to play in football, and taking time away takes some things away from you,” a personnel director said. “He has a skill set that could take him back to where he was or close to, but the game hasn’t gotten slower. He is going to have to show he is able to do some of those things again.”

INDIANAPOLIS

Will QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON be a Week One starter?  So far, so good according to Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

NFL training camp performances must be graded on a sliding scale.

For most veterans and well-established players, camp is a time to gear up and work on things they might not have time for when the season starts — like Patrick Mahomes and his behind-the-back magic.

For certain young players who entered the NFL needing reps under their belt, camp is vital to development. Therefore, we can digest praise and great days from these players with fewer grains of salt than usual (still some salt, just not the whole box).

Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson certainly resides in the latter of these two categories. Entering the NFL, the Florida product owns sky-high skills but lacked game reps and development in college.

According to everyone on the ground this weekend, Richardson shined, especially when getting the starting reps on Sunday.

“I thought he had a heck of a day (Sunday),” coach Shane Steichen said, via James Boyd of The Athletic. “He was really solid, made some big-time throws. Obviously, the two-minute drive, threw a nice touchdown right there in the end zone and then the two-point play that he ran in. It was pretty good to see.”

We’re not going to get into unofficial training camp stats, but suffice it to say reporters have pervasively noted that Richardson continues to progress positively throughout camp, including a play-action deep shot in 11-on-11 to wideout Alec Pierce that turned heads Sunday.

“Shoot, he made a heck of a throw,” Steichen said. “It was one-on-one backside, and we had another combination over there, and he snapped back and threw that one-on-one. It was a great throw and a great catch.”

Steichen has yet to name a starter for the Colts’ first preseason game against Buffalo on Saturday, but it’s clear that Richardson is making a push.

“You get repetitions, and you do things more and more, you’re going to get more comfortable,” Steichen said of the young QB. “I think he’s gaining confidence in the system and gaining confidence with his teammates, and when you have that and you have the talent he has, it’s usually a good thing.

Even if the Colts start the first preseason game with Gardner Minshew under center, Richardson should get plenty of run early in the preseason. If the battle is remotely close, history tells us the No. 4 overall pick will have the edge to be the Week 1 starter.

After each practice, quotes and reports emanate from Indy, citing Richardson’s improvement. It’s becoming too much to ignore.

“Man, honestly, he’s just so much more comfortable,” linebacker Zaire Franklin said. “(He’s) starting to find his rhythm, starting to find that version of his game in this offense at this level, which is great to see. Obviously, mistakes are still there. He’s still a young player, but it’s just encouraging to see that growth, especially from early on until now.”

JACKSONVILLE

Comments on QB TREVOR LAWRENCE (Tier 2) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Lawrence made the third-largest gain from last year in average tier vote, jumping from the bottom of Tier 3 into the middle of Tier 2. Jackson was the last quarterback to make a bigger year-over-year jump in average tier vote at a similar point in his career.

“I could see him making a jump to a 1 this year,” a defensive coordinator said. “You saw something flip after their bye week. He was more confident in the offense. I still think he’s a little bit slow to trigger at times and takes too many sacks.”

Lawrence took 17 of his 27 sacks in four games.

“He hasn’t been real accurate as a pro passer, not as much as I thought he would have been, but you could see big improvements, quicker decisions,” a GM said. “He took a huge jump last year. He hit a couple throws on the move in their playoff win where you were like, ‘Holy s—.’ He also threw four picks in the first half. But he is going places.”

Lawrence and the Jaguars went 3-2 last season in games when they trailed by at least 17 points. The rest of the league was 7-74-1 in those.

“Dallas was up 17 on him late and he brought them back,” an offensive coordinator said. “I didn’t think he could do that. Again, Doug (Pederson) has done a great job with him. Doug had (Carson) Wentz playing at a playoff-caliber level in their first year together. Lawrence is a better player, more sudden with his movements, is more of a modern shotgun passer.”

MIAMI

What is the Dolphins plan to preserve QB TUA TAGOVIALOA?  Peter King:

“Sometimes you’ve just got to open your eyes,” Mike McDaniel said before practice one morning last week. He meant: The quarterback has been getting hurt, and we need him for 17 games, and let’s think. McDaniel, GM Chris Grier and Tua Tagovailoa talked. Working with jiu-jitsu for both a stronger body and a better way to fall was one thing. The new position-specific helmet from VICIS was another thing. And maybe something a bit counterintuitive—some physical contact in the off-season—was a third.

Last year, Miami backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater postulated something to McDaniel. “It’s bizarre that quarterbacks go zero to 60 in terms of how they handle contact,” McDaniel said. “They don’t get touched all offseason until the regular season begins, and then they have defenses come at them full speed. There’s no in-between. So I figured I’m not going to have defenders tackle him, but we can drill stuff that can get him used to taking hits after a follow-through.”

Tagovailoa missed five games last year due to two concussions, including a scary one in Cincinnati. That led to exploring the new position-specific helmet for quarterbacks, the VICIS Zero2 Matrix, which includes slightly more protection when the quarterback falls backward and slams his head on the turf. The helmet actually dents when making hard contact with another helmet or the ground, thus absorbing more of the hit, in theory, when the impact occurs—than the player’s head. The combination of learning a better way to fall and better helmet support when the head hits the ground seems smart. We’ll see if it works.

“On the [NFL’s helmet-information] chart,” Tagovailoa told me, “as we were discussing new helmets and whatnot, they were talking about that it’s 1 percent better than the helmet that I’m in. Now OK, you look at 1 percent. That’s not a drastic change from the helmet that I’m in. But then you look at playing on the field, and I figure that 1 percent better that you got on this play or that play, and eventually it ends up adding up. I’m willing to take my chances with it. I’m definitely going to see what this thing can do.”

Tagovailoa said the new helmet actually feels slightly lighter than his former headgear.

He looks slightly thicker. He’s optimistic that he’s done as much as he can physically do to prepare for the physical realties of a four-month (or five-month) season. “I think the cool thing about the entirety of the offseason is that I feel like I’ve put myself in a situation where I checked the boxes on, like, okay, this is what happened last year. What were some other injuries? I feel like I checked the boxes to prepare myself the best way I can to avoid those this year.”

One other thing interests me in the Miami camp: the McDaniel-Tua relationship. NFL Films last year captured McDaniel on the sidelines against Houston talking to Tagovailoa about what seemed to be random stuff. It was … odd. At one point the coach said to his QB that he scoured YouTube looking for clips of Tagovailoa playing quarterback in high school. “Bro, your technique was trash,” McDaniel said.

This was in the middle of a game. A game, you know, that counts in the standings.

“Well, it’s two-fold,” McDaniel said. “I’m generally pretty intentional, whether that stuff works or not. That’s a backhanded compliment—like, he’s really improved. You cannot forget that these are human beings, not robots. Levity within the chaos can kind of calm people. I say random stuff to people all the time just to get the human element, to get them loose and concentrated on the right stuff because the pressure could encapsulate them, but it doesn’t have to.”

NEW YORK JETS

Comments on QB AARON RODGERS (who remained in Tier 2) from Mike Sando’s Tiers Ranking:

Rodgers’ fall from the unanimous and near-unanimous Tier 1 ranks should feel familiar. Tom Brady experienced an even more extreme downgrade when transitioning from New England to Tampa Bay following a forgettable final season with the Patriots.

“Brady goes to Tampa, he has more talent around him, he hosts the receivers at his house for throwing sessions, he has a great year,” a voter with NFC North experience said. “Rodgers goes to the Jets, he has more talent around him, he is clearly more motivated, he was at OTAs, he has been part of the offseason program. It’s the same.”

Playing style could be a meaningful difference.

“Father Time is undefeated,” a voter who placed the 39-year-old Rodgers in Tier 2 said. “Brady always won by his arm and never had to use his feet. Aaron used his feet more in the past, and I think that part of his game has left him. He’s accurate, but I don’t think he can do it for a 17-game season. He has to have other dimensions to help him take it to that winning level every time.”

Brady slipped into Tier 2 heading into his first season with Tampa. Rodgers remained in the top tier despite the concerns, but his 20 Tier 2 votes this year were nearly triple his combined total in nine previous Quarterback Tiers appearances.

“ESPN showed it over and over the other day in camp when Rodgers looked off the safety and threw an upfield fade where the kid got his toes down and motioned for the first down,” an exec said. “We have watched that for 15 years. My question is, why wouldn’t it be 16? He is not going to all of a sudden let the pass rush beat him up. The opponents are afraid of him and the hard count and the look-offs and all the other graduate-level stuff.”

There is another intriguing consideration.

“Green Bay played four games on turf last year,” an exec said. “Guess how many the Jets play this year? Fourteen. Huge difference for a guy who turns 40 in December and has had some lower-leg injuries, including calf strains. (Nathaniel) Hackett’s offense has the boot package, the wide stretch runs. It’s a lot of pounding on a surface that is tough on an old guy’s legs.”

THIS AND THAT

DO NOT DRAFT

Eric Karabell of ESPN.com offers his list of players to stay away from at Fantasy Draft time:

Fantasy football managers and Las Vegas Raiders fans loved what RB Josh Jacobs achieved last season. Jacobs had been a solid statistical performer during his first three NFL seasons, twice ending up an RB2 and once slipping into the top 10 among season scorers at his position, but he was never a superstar. Certainly not like he was in 2022.

Last season, Jacobs played at a superstar level. Sans a long-term contract and in what could have been his final season with the organization, the Raiders gifted him with ridiculous volume and Jacobs thrived. No player had more touches, rushing yards or yards from scrimmage. Only two running backs –Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey — and nine players scored more PPR points.

This is a trap, fantasy managers. Jacobs entered last season an RB2 option, playing for a new deal he did not get. Perhaps you have heard, but he’s not the only angry, bitter running back in the league. Teams are financially cautious with the position. Jacobs isn’t pleased. He’s not at training camp and is a risk to sit out regular-season games.

However, even if Jacobs were signed long term and happy, he was unlikely to replicate his fantastic season with another 300-plus PPR points. Sure, we love the big volume while it is happening, but we have myriad cases of running backs failing to approach their numbers — volume or efficiency — the following season as proof of it, and it makes Jacobs a prime player to avoid at his current top-20 position in ESPN average live drafts.

Entering 2022, a mere eight running backs received 310 or more rushing attempts in a season (big volume, for this era) over the past decade, and here are their results the next season.

LeSean McCoy topped 310 rushing attempts in consecutive seasons (2013, 2014) and never did so again. The Eagles traded him to the Bills in 2015, and he missed four games. He enjoyed one more RB1 season.

DeMarco Murray ran wild for the 2014 Cowboys, handling 392 rushing attempts. He was an Eagle the next season (replacing McCoy), and he could not stay healthy (8 starts, 193 rushing attempts). His final season was 2017.

Adrian Peterson, then 30, rushed 327 times for the 2015 Vikings. A series of injuries kept him to 13 games over the next two seasons, as he jumped from team to team. He never approached 300 touches again.

Ezekiel Elliott enjoyed his best season as a rookie in 2016, and he missed six games the following season. He rebounded to sneak past 300 rushing attempts in 2018 and 2019, but never had an efficient season like 2016 again. At 28, he is currently looking for work.

Le’Veon Bell topped 300 rushing attempts one time, in 2017, and then he held out for a bigger contract and sat out the next season. He played three more seasons for four teams, never again a fantasy factor.

Dalvin Cook slid past 310 rushing attempts over 14 games in 2020, and the next season, in one fewer game, he had 63 fewer attempts and more than 100 fewer PPR points. As with Elliott, as of this writing, he is not with an NFL team.

Derrick Henry used his 378 rushes to sail past 2,000 rushing yards in 2020, and then he missed half of the 2021 season because of injury. He bounced back nicely last season, but unlike others on this list, plays little role in the passing game, and is quite a bit larger than the others.

Jonathan Taylor was fantasy’s best player in 2021. Let’s just say he was not fantasy’s best player in 2022.

There is a clear theme here of a big-volume season portending injury and also of NFL teams looking to move on from players before that happens. Fantasy managers should notice the trends. Among the above group of players, the average rushing season following the year after the big volume — for those who played — fell short of 1,000 yards. Most missed games. Jacobs was awesome and won fantasy leagues, but we must look forward, not back.

Also, perhaps we should be writing a positive article about Derrick Henry, for he is the rare exception of a player who can handle large volume year after year, topping 300 rushing attempts in three of four seasons. He remains effective, likely in part to his build. The other running backs have not held up as well. They get hurt. They see their volume fall. They are not as effective.

Give Jacobs full credit for last season, when he played through myriad injuries, but things are different now. The Raiders remain uncommitted to him long term but are far more likely to share his usage, assuming he even suits up in Week 1. There is real risk here. Jacobs also seems far more likely to sit games to nurse injury, too. It hardly means Jacobs will be a notable bust, as he was a solid RB2 choice his first few seasons, but those choosing him over a top-end wide receiver might regret the move.

Here are other players fantasy managers should be wary of selecting at their current ADP spot. After all, who wouldn’t take Jacobs in Round 4 or 5? It’s all about value.

Top and Second Quarterbacks

Nothing against awesome Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, awesome Bills star Josh Allen and awesome Eagles star Jalen Hurts — yes, we admit they are quite awesome — but there is little justification for using a top-20 pick on a quarterback in a one-quarterback format. Don’t do it. You might not wish to wait as long as I do to choose a QB — good ones are there in Round 10 or later — but too many safe, top flex options (RB/WR) are available in Rounds 2 or 3 to take a quarterback that early, and the pickings get slim after Round 5.

Later on in drafts, we should have reservations about Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa remaining healthy, Panthers rookie Bryce Young becoming consistent and reliable so soon and Cardinals runner Kyler Murray even playing in an NFL game before mid-October, as he recovers from major knee surgery. However, there’s plenty of other good quarterbacks to draft, and with so much depth (Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith), there isn’t even any need for a second QB in standard leagues; just wait for the bye week. Take traditional flex depth instead.

Running backs coming off ACL tears

While history isn’t kind to running backs such as Jacobs coming off major volume, it is similarly discouraging for running backs with surgically repaired knees, at least in their first season back. Jets rookie Breece Hall is going to have a hard time flirting with RB1 status — he is the No. 12 RB off the board — if he misses September games, and he certainly might. The Jets have made no secret of their flirtations with veteran RBs such as Elliott and Cook. It’s a sign. Draft Hall in 2024.

Exciting Bronco Javonte Williams tore his ACL and MCL a few weeks prior to Hall going down, but it is a more serious injury with different, longer rehabilitation, and the franchise is hardly guaranteeing Williams will play in September. The difference here is Williams is not being selected among the top 30 running backs in ADP. Round 10 is fine for him, if he lasts. Round 6 is not.

Running backs with adjusted situations

Going in ADP order, I have reservations about new Panthers starter Miles Sanders, longtime Saints pass-catcher Alvin Kamara, Eagles acquisition D’Andre Swift and Lions newcomer David Montgomery.

Sanders flourished behind Philadelphia’s elite offensive line, and as with others mentioned previously, the team had little intention in keeping him around, so it was not concerned about high volume. Now Sanders, who hasn’t caught 30 passes in any of the past three seasons and has struggled to remain healthy, must play with a rookie QB and with an average offensive line. As noted by colleague Mike Clay, Sanders’ touchdown output seems likely to crater. Sanders is likely not an RB2.

The other running backs do catch passes, but Kamara should see a decrease in rushing volume with former Lions TD maker Jamaal Williams (17 TDs!) and TCU rookie Kendre Miller (third-round pick) joining the team. Kamara will also miss the first three games of the season while serving a suspension.

Swift is one of the Sanders replacements in Philadelphia, so he gets the elite offensive line but might find it difficult to amass volume with former Seahawk Rashaad Penny and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell soundly in the mix. Penny has struggled to stay healthy, but so has Swift. A timeshare is good for the Eagles, who plan to play football deep into January, but not so much for fantasy managers.

Montgomery joins the Lions to likely handle the Williams role as touchdown maker after four pseudo-productive seasons with the Bears, where he was generally a flex option for fantasy. However, the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round, and there is no need for them to be patient with his volume. Montgomery might struggle to find volume of his own.

Rookie wide receivers

Four wide receivers were picked consecutively in first round of the NFL draft: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks), Quentin Johnston (Chargers), Zay Flowers (Ravens) and Jordan Addison (Vikings). Each was an outstanding college player, and gets to play with a solid, veteran quarterback. Still, look at history as a guide. The Jets’ Garrett Wilson and Saints’ Chris Olave played well, but they finished as WR3 choices. Relying on a rookie receiver as a potential flex option is often a mistake. The Vikings’ Justin Jefferson is an exception, not a rule.

Receivers with questionable QBs

Buccaneers star Mike Evans is the obvious one, as whomever wins the starting job is a far cry from retired Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Chris Godwin is the safer Tampa Bay WR option for fantasy. Meanwhile, we don’t know who starts under center for the 49ers, making Deebo Samuel a risk. He was already a risk because of missed games and far fewer carries after Christian McCaffrey joined the team. Former Panther DJ Moore joins the Bears, a team that was last in the league in pass attempts. Former Cardinal/Texan DeAndre Hopkins has been limited by injury and suspension the past two seasons, and now gets Ryan Tannehill as his QB. Good luck.

Old, broken-down wide receivers

Fantasy managers continue to be fooled by Saints veteran Michael Thomas, who has played in only 10 games the past three seasons because of a variety of injuries and surgeries. His MVP campaign from 2019 is a long time ago. Similarly, the Ravens might believe Odell Beckham Jr. can recapture his once-legendary form, but his last WR2 season came in 2016 and his new QB Lamar Jackson is hardly known for his throwing. Taking Thomas or Beckham in the first 10 rounds is a mistake.

BROADCAST NEWS – MATT RYAN

Matt Ryan with candid comments on the path to the CBS booth.  Josh Kendall of The Athletic:

Former Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is eager to get his new career as a game analyst for CBS started, and, if he’s being honest, still trying to process how his last career ended — or if it has even ended at all.

“I mean, it was a s— show, you know, it was a s— show of 18 months basically is the best way to describe it,” Ryan told The Athletic on Monday morning. “But I think everybody in our family handled it well and came out of it stronger and in a really good spot.”

Ryan, 38, spent 14 seasons as Atlanta’s starting quarterback, being named the league’s MVP in 2016 and setting every significant passing record in the organization’s history along the way. He was getting ready for Year 15 with the Falcons in March 2022 when he learned that he was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a third-round pick.

“Things kind of escalated quickly within one week and the entire dynamic changed,” he said. “That part was hard, there’s no doubt about it because for 14 years every morning I woke up, I knew exactly what was expected of me. When that changes, that part was difficult, but you get thrust in through a new situation so quickly.”

Although Ryan was “surprised” by the move, he does not believe anyone in Atlanta acted with “malicious intent” during his exit, he said. The quarterback returned to the team’s Flowery Branch training facility for the first time since the trade last week, visiting with coach Arthur Smith, offensive coordinator Dave Ragone and quarterback Desmond Ridder, he said. He has had dinner with Falcons owner Arthur Blank recently as well.

“The biggest thing that I took away from that situation is I wasn’t going to let one bad week ruin 14 years of awesome, of really positive, great experiences,” Ryan said. “You also come to realize the business side of it. I understand that there are difficult decisions that need to be made and there’s a right or wrong way to do those kinds of things. Would I have liked some of it to be different? Yeah, but it wasn’t handled badly. It was just a situation that was difficult for all parties involved.”

It didn’t get any easier in Ryan’s season with the Colts, which included him being benched for the first time in his career midway through the season and then Indianapolis hiring the inexperienced Jeff Saturday as head coach. It’s “hard to pick just one” moment that stood out as the most eye-opening of that experience, Ryan said.

“It was one of those things, you know, I felt like I was going into it in a position where I’d probably seen it all in 14 years and then realize, ‘No you have not, you have not seen it all,’” he said. “There’s a lot of other things that are going to come up. It was a difficult year, there’s no doubt about it.”

Ryan is leaving open the possibility of playing in the NFL again while still “diving pretty deep” into his new job, he said.

“I’m staying in shape. I think it is kind of, ‘You know my number. You know where I’m at.’ If anything were to come up, you know, we’ll see. (CBS) is where my focus is at right now. But we’ll see how the season shakes out.”

Ryan will work on a CBS crew with Andrew Catalon and Tiki Barber, he said. The crew will call Tampa Bay–Minnesota, Baltimore–Cincinnati and Washington-Buffalo to start the season, he said.

“I’m hoping I get a couple Falcons games, which would be fun,” he said.

QB TIERS

The tier one listing of QBs by tiers comes from Mike Sando of The Athletic and his panel of anonymous insiders (the list is below, we will have the comments for some of them in their team section today or later in the week):

Patrick Mahomes has no equal in this 10th edition of the Quarterback Tiers, although AFC rival Joe Burrow is close behind. Mahomes, Burrow and Josh Allen all overtook Aaron Rodgers. Justin Herbert is lurking. Is Jalen Hurts on track to join the exclusive Tier 1 ranks, reserved for the very best?

The 2023 Quarterback Tiers results are here, complete with commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who were granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations. This year, the 50 league insiders who placed 30 veteran quarterbacks into tiers included eight general managers, 10 head coaches, 15 coordinators, 10 executives, four quarterbacks coaches and three involved in coaching/analytics.

Voters put 30 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5).

Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Mahomes, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as a unanimous Tier 1 selection. No QBs landed in Tier 5 this year, although some received Tier 5 votes. The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL.

The tiers are defined below. Generally speaking, the better equipped a quarterback is to win with less help around him, especially in situations when running the ball is not feasible, the better he will fare in Quarterback Tiers.

Tier 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

1      Patrick Mahomes              Kansas City                     1.00

2       Joe Burrow                        Cincinnati                       1.02     

3       Josh Allen                         Buffalo                            1.12

4       Aaron Rodgers                   New York Jets              1.40

5       Justin Herbert                   LA Chargers                   1.42

Tier 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

6        Jalen Hurts                       Philadelphia                     1.84

7         Lamar Jackson                Baltimore                         1.94

8        Trevor Lawrence            Jacksonville                       2.22

9        Dak Prescott                    Dallas                               2.24                                             

10       Matthew Stafford            LA Rams                          2.32

11       Deshaun Watson            Cleveland                         2.36

12       Kirk Cousins                    Minnesota                        2.50

Tier 3

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

13           Kyler Murray                  Arizona                            2.60

14           Derek Carr                     New Orleans                  2.64

15          Jared Goff                      Detroit                              2.66

16          Russell Wilson                Denver                           2.82

17          Tua Tagovailoa                Miami                           2.90

18           Jimmy Garoppolo           Las Vegas                   2.96

19             Daniel Jones                NY Giants                     2.98

20            Geno Smith                  Seattle                          3.00

21             Justin Fields                  Chicago                     3.12

22             Ryan Tannehill              Tennessee                3.16

23             Mac Jones                     New England            3.26

Tier 4

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.

24                Brock Purdy              San Francisco           3.50

25                Kenny Pickett           Pittsburgh                 3.52

26               Jordan Love               Green Bay               3.98

26               Baker Mayfield           Tampa Bay              3.98

28               Sam Howell                Washington             4.02

29                Desmond Ridder         Atlanta                   4.08

30               Gardner Minshew         Indianapolis          4.44