| With only the Raiders repping the AFC tonight, this is timely while the NFC must wait a day. If The Season Ended Today in the AFC: AFC W-L Conf Last Week p’off %Kansas City West 13-1 7-1 1 100 (division)Buffalo East 11-3 7-2 2 100 (division)Pittsburgh North 10-4 7-2 3 100 (playoffs)Houston South 9-5 7-2 4 100 (division)Baltimore WC1 9-5 5-4 WC1 99 (+2%)Denver WC2 9-5 5-4 WC3 91 (+17%)LA Chargers WC3 8-6 5-4 WC2 87 (-2%)Indianapolis 6-8 5-4 8 10 (-7%)Miami 6-8 5-4 9 7 (-6%)Cincinnati 6-8 3-6 xx 6 With three weeks to do, three of the division races are decided, while Pittsburgh’s loss to the Eagles put the AFC North in greater doubt. The Broncos win over the Colts boosted their chances 17%, while the Chargers loss to the Buccaneers barely dented their hopes. Only three teams are even slightly remaining as playoff contenders outside the top seven. Counter intuitively, we think the Bengals will be rooting for the Chargers Thursday night when they meet the Broncos on Prime. LAC already has a head-to-head win on the Bengals, while Cincinnati can get one on the Broncos in Week 17. And Denver has a harder Week 18 match-up, Kansas City, than the Chargers, Las Vegas. Although, KC may have everything nailed down by then.- – -Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com with a note on a plethora of turnovers: There were 13 games around the league on Sunday and the matchup between the Colts and Broncos in Denver underlined one of the leading themes of the day. The two teams combined to turn the ball over eight times, including Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto’s disruption of a trick play in the fourth quarter. Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell was trying to throw the ball back to quarterback Anthony Richardson behind the line of scrimmage, but Bonitto stepped in front of the ball for a 50-yard touchdown return that helped the Broncos to a 31-13 win. Eight turnovers is a lot, but it wasn’t the most of the day. The Bengals and Titans combined for 10 of them and there were 51 turnovers around the league on Sunday. Josh Dubow of the Associated Press notes that it was the most in the league since teams combined for the same number on December 11, 2016, There were 57 turnovers on September 25 of the same year. All of those turnovers made for a lot of moments that offenses would like to do over, but they’ll have to wait for week 16 for a chance to put forth cleaner efforts.– – -The NFL has taken its time announcing which of five unscheduled Week 17 games would be played on Saturday. On Monday, word leaked that Chargers at Patriots could be one of them. The Los Angeles Chargers will likely be looking to make a playoff push when they take on the New England Patriots in Week 17, and that game reportedly could be moved to Saturday of that weekend. ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported Sunday the NFL “is strong considering” moving that game to Saturday in Week 17. Reiss noted the league has to choose three of the following five matchups to air to a national audience on NFL Network on Saturday, Dec. 28: Los Angeles Chargers at New England PatriotsDenver Broncos at Cincinnati BengalsArizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsIndianapolis Colts at New York GiantsAtlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders Reiss pointed out the NFL “loves to promote its young quarterback stars,” and moving the game between the Patriots and Chargers to a national-television window would allow it to do so with Drake Maye. Maye was the No. 3 overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft and has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,696 yards, 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 345 yards and a score on the ground as a runner. There is always going to be an element of pressure as a young quarterback on the Patriots given the legacy Tom Brady left, but Maye has flashed his potential a number of times and gives the AFC East team plenty of hope moving into the future even though it is just 3-10 on the season. On the other side is a Chargers team that has played well in Jim Harbaugh’s first season as head coach. Los Angeles is 8-5 and holds the No. 6 seed in the current AFC playoff picture. It is two games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts with just four games remaining in the wild-card race and is in ideal position to eventually clinch a postseason spot. Justin Herbert has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception and would give the NFL another notable quarterback to promote if it moved this game into the Saturday window. Depending on how the Chargers perform in their next two games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos, they may have a chance to clinch a playoff spot against the Patriots as well. If Reiss has the scoop, the other two Saturday games should come from Denver at CincinnatiArizona at LA RamsAtlanta at Washington We don’t think Indianapolis at Giants makes the cut. |
| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITThe Lions have been playing good defense despite a run of injuries – until Sunday. And then the Bills sent three more defenders to the sidelines. Madison Williams of SI.com: The Detroit Lions’ 48–42 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday was brutal to begin with, but now they are dealing with major injuries to three of their defensive players. Two of the three players are likely done for the season, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on Monday. Defensive lineman Alim McNeill suffered a torn ACL, and cornerback Carlton Davis III fractured his jaw during the contest. Davis will soon undergo surgery for his injury. However, Davis’s current timeline is to miss six weeks, which would perfectly time up to the NFC title game on Jan. 26. Additionally, cornerback Khalil Dorsey suffered an ankle injury that is likely to be season-ending, coach Dan Campbell said after the game. It doesn’t help that the Lions already had a pretty banged-up defense. Entering Sunday’s game, there were 13 defensive players on the injured reserve list. The most notable injury to the Lions’ defense this season, though, came in Week 6 when star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson fractured his tibia and fibula. Hutchinson was determined out for the season at the time, but it has since been reported that he could return for the Super Bowl if Detroit makes it to the Big Game. And a huge loss on offense as well per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com: Lions running back David Montgomery has an injury to the MCL in his knee and could miss the rest of the season, according to multiple reports. Montgomery was seen getting his knee looked at during Sunday’s game, but he continued playing through the injury. Montgomery will get more testing before a final diagnosis is made, but the Lions have to be concerned about Montgomery, whom they view as both one of their most important players and one of their most important team leaders. The Lions are 12-2 despite the incredible toll injuries have taken on them this season, but their injury-riddled defense had no answer for the Bills on Sunday, and now in Montgomery they’ve seen a big part of their offense get hurt. With three games left in the regular season, the team that once appeared to be a heavy favorite to earn the NFC No. 1 seed may be a wild card just fighting for survival by the time the playoffs start. As we go to press comes word Montgomery indeed has a torn MCL. |
| MINNESOTAKevin Seifert of ESPN.com with a long look at the Vikings complicated QB dynamics: The restoration of Sam Darnold’s career truly began on the morning of April 25, 43 days after he signed a one-year free agent deal with the Minnesota Vikings. It was draft day, and Minnesota was preparing to take a franchise quarterback in the first round. But they viewed Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft, as more than insurance for the rookie, and coach Kevin O’Connell wanted Darnold to hear that directly from the source. So O’Connell summoned Darnold to his office for a 10:30 a.m. meeting and, for 45 minutes on a time-crunched day, he explained the plan. The Vikings’ draft pick (who turned out to be Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at No. 10) would not be rushed onto the field, O’Connell told Darnold. There were no guarantees of how much Darnold would play in 2024, but O’Connell emphasized what a good fit he thought Darnold was for the Vikings and made clear he could be an important part of the team’s success, O’Connell said in an interview with ESPN this summer. Reserved by nature, Darnold was touched. After blowing through three teams in five seasons, he had landed with a coach and an organization with a plan to rebuild his confidence. That foundational moment remains instructive, as Darnold — transformed in every way that matters on a football field — leads the 11-2 Vikings into Monday night’s game against the Chicago Bears (8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC) in front of a home crowd that has taken to chanting “MVP” when he appears on videoboards. “He’s playing so well,” O’Connell said, “and he’s so rooted in the moment.” IN WHAT WAS already a career-best season, Darnold hit his stride over the past month. He has thrown for 1,158 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over the past four games. He has engineered three game-winning drives during that stretch and led the league in completions on passes of at least 15 air yards, putting himself on pace for a 4,100-yard, 35-touchdown season. Darnold has played well enough to leave the Vikings more open-minded about their 2025 plans than many realize, according to sources familiar with the Vikings’ thinking. They have not ruled out offering him a contract for next season, despite widespread assumptions they will let him sign elsewhere in free agency and hand the job to McCarthy, who has spent his rookie season recovering from a torn meniscus in his right knee. Whether Darnold receives a more lucrative offer elsewhere remains to be determined, as quarterback-needy teams are just beginning the process of assessing his season. But he raised eyebrows earlier this month when he told Fox Sports reporter Pam Oliver: “There’s no other place I’d rather play. Just so grateful to be a Viking.” Other public comments have emphasized Darnold’s mind will always be “where my feet are.” He has refused to speculate about how his performance will impact his future, or reflect on his experiences. In the meantime, the Vikings have also engaged in a delicate semantic dance. O’Connell has encouraged Darnold’s focus on his daily routine and praised him last week for being “so demanding of himself, but [also] the way he hasn’t put the weight of the world on his shoulders.” General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah hasn’t spoken publicly since before the season began, but he has often deferred to O’Connell on quarterback decisions. While the Vikings’ decision-makers remain open-minded on 2025, they put some strategies in place to prepare for an eventual parting of the ways if it happens. To optimize McCarthy’s development while on injured reserve, Darnold agreed to wear a modified camera on his helmet during practices and walk-throughs. McCarthy uses the video to simulate practice reps via virtual reality. The Vikings also signed veteran quarterback Daniel Jones, who was released by the New York Giants, to their practice squad last month, a move widely viewed as an early look at a potential candidate to replace Darnold next season as the veteran alongside McCarthy. Any concerns about rattling or distracting Darnold with those efforts have been rendered moot by his performance. Darnold has accomplished so much this season, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said last week, that there is no need to worry about next steps as the Vikings (11-2) push to make a deep playoff run. “In my mind, I would hope he would say, ‘The body of work that I’ve put in so far is going to take care of the future, so really all I need to worry about is right now,'” Phillips said. “I think we all know that Sam is going to be a sought-after type of guy from wherever that may be. So whatever his future ends up being, I know all of us in this building are going to be happy for him. “I don’t think he has to worry about that anymore. I think the worry might have been this is my opportunity to play. He’s past all that. He’s proven the doubters [wrong] and he’s proven that he can play in this league. So let’s just make this the best possible season we can have starting this week.” OVER THE PAST month, NFL team executives contacted by ESPN about the Vikings’ situation with Darnold have most commonly raised comparisons to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ experience with quarterback Baker Mayfield, drafted two spots ahead of Darnold in 2018. They were briefly Carolina Panthers teammates in 2022. Mayfield signed a one-year, $4 million contract to compete for the Buccaneers’ starting job in 2023. After winning the gig, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns and leading the Buccaneers to the divisional round of the playoffs, he re-signed for three years and $100 million last spring. The deal included $30 million fully guaranteed in 2024 and another $10 million for 2025. Mayfield entered Week 15 tied for third — with Darnold — with 28 touchdown passes, and Mayfield is fourth with 3,329 yards for a Bucs team that leads the NFC South. Darnold ranks first on ESPN’s list of pending free agent quarterbacks, ahead of Justin Fields. The Mayfield deal would be on the lower end of what Darnold could expect this spring, an AFC team executive said, citing the relatively thin 2025 draft class compared to 2024. In the meantime, the executive said, the league will try to understand how much of Darnold’s success is based on his own maturation and development and how much should be attributed to O’Connell’s system and playcalling, along with the presence of elite-level pass catchers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. “What’s Darnold doing versus what’s the product of the [Vikings’ system]?” the executive said. “The first half of the season he’s playing with a lead every game. Now their games have gotten stickier and he’s doing more. That could be a trend.” At the very least, Darnold has matched his arm strength with the talent around him. He leads the NFL with 17 completions that have traveled at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, including touchdowns of 97 and 52 yards to Jefferson and 49 and 47 to Addison. “He definitely has that strong arm,” Jefferson said, “to just be able to fit those throws into tight windows and just be able to run those deep throws and be able to take the top off defenses. Those are things that defenses got to respect. … We feel like the whole playbook is kind of open toward Sam being able to throw it all across the field.” Said Hockenson: “I love seeing Sam let those balls loose. He’ll throw one deep, and it’s fun to watch. It kind of just soars through the air. It looks like he just flicks it and it goes away. It’s fun to see that happen.” Darnold’s recent surge has clouded the fact that, as recently as two weeks ago, he was leading the NFL with 14 turnovers. He hit rock bottom during a 12-7 victory in Week 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when he threw three interceptions on balls targeted for Jefferson. O’Connell defended him after that game, saying Darnold had the talent and capacity to play much better and insisting he had never considered benching him. “Looking back on that game,” Darnold said, “I wasn’t too disappointed in the decisions that I made. It was where I located the ball or how I threw the ball I was more disappointed with. “The biggest thing for me is just continuing to make good decisions and being able to, when I do let the ball rip, let it rip with confidence.” Could Darnold maintain that confidence elsewhere? The Vikings are in position to render that question moot. They could apply the franchise tag to Darnold at a cost of roughly $40 million for 2025 or give him their own version of the Mayfield contract before the free agent market opens. Another option is to trade him after using the franchise tag. Darnold will turn 28 in June, and there isn’t a notable recent history of NFL teams allowing younger quarterbacks to leave without compensation at the risk of watching them go on to have successful careers elsewhere. The most glaring example is Drew Brees leaving the San Diego Chargers to sign with the New Orleans Saints via free agency in 2006 when he was 27. Even that decision, however, was complicated by a shoulder injury and the presence of backup Philip Rivers, whom the Chargers drafted in 2004 and went on to throw for 63,440 yards and 421 touchdowns over 17 seasons. Is Darnold a rare example of a player otherwise destined for stardom who simply encountered historically bad environments during his time with the New York Jets and the Panthers? That’s the question the Vikings must answer, one that team sources insist they have not yet done. Realistic teammates, however, know Darnold is about to get paid. “He’s a great dude and I love him being a part of the team,” right tackle Brian O’Neill said. “So from that perspective, you want everybody to go make a billion dollars. You want somebody who’s worked hard, been through a lot of stuff, been through some bad situations in the past, to come out on the other side and get rewarded for it.” IS MCCARTHY THE Philip Rivers of the Chargers’ 2006 scenario? The Vikings not only have to answer that question, but their decision on Darnold will be predicated at least in part on whether McCarthy can be Rivers in 2025 or if his timeline will be pushed back. Before he tore his meniscus Aug. 10, the Vikings had grown increasingly excited about the likelihood that he would be ready to play this season — and there was an outside chance that he could have beaten out Darnold for the Week 1 starter’s job. The injury not only set back those plans, but they also limited his capacity for developing over the course of his rookie season. NFL rules prohibit players on injured reserve from participating in or even attending practice, regardless of whether their injuries are healed. The best McCarthy has been able to do is use the footage from Darnold’s helmet camera, which provides audio of the playcall in the huddle, a view of protection calls on the line of scrimmage and the sequence of Darnold’s reads based on coverage. The video can be transferred to a wall of screens in the Vikings’ draft room, according to Wes Phillips, giving McCarthy a life-size view of the field. More commonly, however, he watches it with a virtual reality visor. He can also attend and participate in all quarterback and team meetings behind the scenes. “He’s doing everything he can to be ready when his time comes,” Phillips said. From a physical standpoint, McCarthy recently “turned a corner,” O’Connell said. His initial recovery included six weeks of essentially being immobile, forcing him to ride a scooter around the team facility. Swelling developed in early November as he began to ramp up his recovery work, requiring a second procedure on Nov. 11 that resulted in a PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injection. McCarthy hasn’t spoken to Minnesota reporters since Sept. 6, but in a Nov. 26 appearance on “The L.A.B. Podcast” with former Michigan tight end Jake Butt, he said his knee “is on the road that they told me it was going to be on, which was up and down, sideways, backwards, all the way around.” “The PRP; got that done,” McCarthy added. “So going in there and having to get cut open wasn’t great, but it’s all right because it’s part of the process. I’m in a good spot now.” Has he done enough to allow the Vikings to let Darnold depart? Former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman, for one, doesn’t think so. “He’s a rookie,” Spielman said last week of McCarthy, while speaking on the “With the First Pick” podcast. “He’s going to start over from scratch. He didn’t do anything this year. He’s not practicing. He’s sitting in meetings. He’s rehabbing. He hasn’t done one thing since that surgery except rehab, throw the ball on the side, maybe, but he’s not practicing. So you’re starting from square one with him.” Spielman doesn’t have the same access as Vikings coaches and executives to the details of McCarthy’s behind-the-scenes work. Speaking last week, O’Connell said McCarthy has been “really good staying true to the priorities that we have in place.” The two have met on a weekly basis since the injury to help replicate the process they will one day follow for real. “[McCarthy is] really getting to a place where he’s healthy,” O’Connell said, “and now it can be more about the physical side of things moving forward. He’s starting that process and kind of in the middle of it right now. … I know this: When I meet with him one-on-one every week, he’s got great questions, and they’re very in depth and really shows me a guy that’s learning, not just the top layer. He’s really trying to consume a lot of information as if he was playing. So it’s been great to hear that.” MEANWHILE, JONES’ PRESENCE is a reminder there may be another possibility. If Darnold departs and McCarthy isn’t healthy by summer, the Vikings could re-sign Jones for a similar short-term revival. “We’ve just challenged [Jones] to absorb all the information,” O’Connell said, “and using that as a barometer of where we want to take our teaching moving forward as we systematically build him up. He’s very smart. … He looks like a guy, when he throws a football, that’s played a lot of football. And in the pocket, his feel. So, it’s been fun to have him here. I think he’s doing a great job. Little by little, getting him more comfortable with what we do around here.” In the meantime, the Vikings are in the midst of an unexpected playoff push. ESPN’s Football Power Index projected them for 6.8 victories when the season began amid their quarterback transition, a win total they surpassed during the second week of November. FPI now gives them the NFL’s seventh-best chance to win the Super Bowl (5.9%). If you’re looking for Darnold, though, he won’t be hard to find. Speaking last Wednesday, he said he has learned to focus only on “what’s important right now — and that’s having a really good Wednesday practice.” “I’ve kind of always understood how important it is to be where my feet are, to just be locked in in the moment,” he added. “Because when you’re not, when you start thinking about things in the future or things that might have happened in the past, you stop [focusing on] what’s important.” |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASBoth Diggs brothers are on the shelf for the rest of the year. Trevon Diggs is done for the year. The Dallas Cowboys cornerback is expected to undergo season-ending knee surgery, NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported Saturday, per a source. Pelissero added that Diggs is dealing with cartilage issues and will get a second opinion, but the expectation is that his 2024 season is over. An exact timeline for his recovery has yet to be determined, per Pelissero. NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 15 of 2024 seasonThe Cowboys announced on Saturday that Diggs wouldn’t travel with the team for Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers while downgrading him to out on the injury report. Diggs has missed two games due to injury and has been consistently listed on the injury report all season. He’s produced 42 tackles, two interceptions and 11 pass break-ups in 11 games played. An All-Pro in 2021, Diggs suffered a torn ACL in training camp ahead of the 2023 season. |
| PHILADELPHIANot only did the Eagles win the Keystone Klash with Pittsburgh, they did so with plenty of passing. Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com: The Eagles don’t have a passing problem Overreaction or reality: Reality Jalen Hurts only needed a game to put the doubts regarding the Eagles passing game to rest, as the Eagles quarterback threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday’s win over the Steelers. Hurts finished with a 125.7 passer rating and completed 78.1% of his passes. Hurts targeted A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith a total of 23 times, as the duo combined for 19 catches for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Brown and Smith were the first Eagles duo to have 100+ receiving yards, a receiving touchdowns more than five catches in a game since Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson in 2009. Brown had his season high in catches and targets just one week after he said “passing” was what the offense needed to improve on. The Eagles rushed for just 131 yards and Saquon Barkley only finished with 65 (and had 3.4 yards per carry). Philadelphia just proved what it already knew — that the Eagles can win in a multitude of ways. There is no passing problem on the Eagles. Hurts is multi-dimensional, which is why he wins as frequently as he does (now 46-19 as a starting quarterback). He’s still a good quarterback throwing the football, proving that aspect of his game is good enough when the game plan calls for it. |
| WASHINGTONLuckily for the NFL a horrible and obvious officiating blunder did not change the outcome of the Washington-New Orleans game. John Keim and Katherine Terrell of ESPN.comon complaints from both sides: Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn said he wanted to take the high road when discussing an officiating error that could have cost his team the game on Sunday. New Orleans Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi, meanwhile, traveled a different road when discussing multiple officiating calls. Washington beat New Orleans 20-19 by stopping a 2-point conversion attempt after time had expired. The Commanders (9-5) remain in the seventh and final playoff spot with three games remaining. Both teams ended with gripes about the officiating, though Washington’s frustration was subdued because of the win. With no timeouts left, Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler connected with tight end Foster Moreau, who was tackled at Washington’s 1-yard line with nine seconds remaining. Side judge Jim Quirk ran to the ball and signaled for a clock stoppage, and the clock was stopped for at least four seconds and possibly five. That enabled the Saints (5-9) to run to the line and spike the ball with three seconds left. They scored on the next play. Referee Shawn Hochuli told a pool reporter afterward that “the covering official mistakenly stopped the clock in that situation. The clock should not have stopped.” Hochuli said it was not reviewable. “I am absolutely taking the high road,” Quinn said. “Those three seconds are critical, let’s just say that. We’re on to [next opponent] Philadelphia. … In the game, I was frustrated why [the clock had stopped], but in the moment, I don’t get to ask and you don’t get the feedback when it’s that type of intensity.” A number of Commanders coaches on the sideline knew the clock had stopped, but the players on the field did not. “I didn’t hear any whistle blow,” Washington cornerback Noah Igbinoghene said. “If the clock stopped, I have no idea why. I looked up and there were nine seconds left. I didn’t look anymore; I just ran to the huddle.” Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels said he was more bothered by finishing the previous series without any points. He and wide receiver Terry McLaurin couldn’t connect on multiple deep passes, and kicker Greg Joseph missed a 54-yard field goal attempt. “If we go down and score, we’re not in that situation [at the end],” Daniels said. Meanwhile, Rizzi was upset that officials did not stop a field goal attempt when the third quarter ended and about another call that extended a Washington drive, resulting in a touchdown. Regarding the first reference, with time having expired at the end of the third quarter, Joseph went through with the kick and missed from 41 yards. Given another opportunity, he made the 41-yarder on the first play of the fourth quarter for a 20-10 lead. “The play should not have been allowed to go on,” Rizzi said. “They gave the field goal kicker basically a freebie. … I’ve been coaching kickers for 30 years. You give a guy a warmup shot, he’s got a pretty good shot at making the second one. The success rate goes through the roof when the guy gets a second chance. “It was a game management from the officials’ operations. I’ll let the league handle it, but I hope that everybody else gets held accountable in this league. I hope that the people that mismanaged that get held accountable too, because it was completely mishandled.” On Washington’s first series, Joseph made a 45-yard field goal, but New Orleans defensive lineman Payton Turner was flagged for unnecessary roughness after officials said he made contact with long-snapper Tyler Ott. That too upset Rizzi. It was made worse when Daniels finished that drive with a 16-yard touchdown pass to McLaurin for a 7-0 lead. “Yeah, I disagreed. You guys saw the play,” Rizzi said. “I’m skating on thin ice as it is, so I’m going to bite my tongue, but I disagreed with the call. So, it’s a shame that seven points in the game come down to a penalty on a field goal block and a quarter that was over and they let the play go. That’s just a shame. So, that’s not a criticism; it’s a shame.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
| TAMPA BAYAfter a big game Sunday in Tinseltown, WR MIKE EVANS now seems likely to get his 11th straight 1,000-yard season despite his earlier injury. That among the topics covered here by Kevin Patra of NFL.com: Bucs explode in second half to trounce Chargers on road. Two first-half turnovers short-circuited Tampa’s offense. The Bucs brought the boom in the second half. On back-to-back Bucs snaps, Mike Evans scored on a 57-yard TD strike, and then Bucky Irving blasted off for a 54-yard run. The two were just a smattering of big plays Tampa dropped on the Chargers defense. Baker Mayfield tossed three passes of 20-plus yards, including three touchdowns. A Mayfield interception and Rachaad White fumble in the first half kept the game close early, but the Bucs sped away in the second half. Tampa scored on its final six non-kneel possessions and didn’t punt in the contest. The Buccaneers racked up 505 yards to L.A.’s 207. With Mayfield zipping darts all over the field and Irving (117 rushing yards) dancing by defenders, the Bucs showed they can hang with anyone when the offense is clicking. Update on the Get Mike Evans to 1,000 Yards agenda: The wideout earned 159 on Sunday, getting him to 749. He needs to average 83.67 yards in the final three contests. |
| NFC WEST |
| SAN FRANCISCOInsubordinate LB de’VONDRE CAMPBELL won’t collect a dime the rest of the season from the 49ers or any other team if the Niners have their way. Michael Baca of NFL.com: De’Vondre Campbell will end his run with the San Francisco 49ers on the suspension list. The Niners are planning to suspend the linebacker for three games, ending his season after Campbell refused to enter the game Thursday night, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday, per sources informed of the situation. Coach Kyle Shanahan indicated action would be taken regarding Campbell’s future, saying on Friday that it’s “just not something you can do to your team.” Technically, the 49ers aren’t yet eliminated from playoff contention, but they have less than a 1% chance, according to Next Gen Stats’ model (two out of 10,000 simulations). So, the three-game suspension would end Campbell’s run with the club without San Francisco releasing the veteran linebacker. Campbell signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the Niners in the offseason as a stand-in as Dre Greenlaw rehabbed from a Super Bowl Achilles tear. With Greenlaw’s return to the lineup in Week 15, Campbell was demoted, sparking the incident. By suspending Campbell for the final three regular-season games, San Francisco avoids having to waive him, which would allow the linebacker to land with another team. The Niners also avoid paying him for the final three games. So, his temper tantrum should cost Campbell something north of $800,000. It was GM John Lynch who banished Campbell from the sideline on Thursday night. Angelina Martin of NBCBayArea.com: John Lynch reportedly did not have time for linebacker De’Vondre Campbell’s sideline antics on Thursday night. San Francisco’s president of football operations/general manager confronted Campbell on the 49ers’ sideline when he refused to play in the third quarter of the 49ers’ 12-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, league insider Jay Glazer reported on “FOX NFL Sunday,” and it was Lynch who sent the dejected defender to the locker room. “John Lynch actually went down there in the [third] quarter and confronted him on it, saying, ‘You don’t want to go in the game? You’re refusing?’ ” Glazer said. “Yes. It was Lynch who sent him in the locker room. “By the way, I got players who called me after and said, ‘Hey, we’ve heard you talk about this alter-ego John Lynch, this 47 Red character. Man, we saw it. That dude is crazy.’ They all saw it firsthand.” |
| SEATTLEA couple of weeks ago, the Cardinals ruled the roost in the NFC West. Then the Seahawks supplanted them by winning four in a row. But with Sunday night’s loss to the Packers, Seattle has slipped into a tie with the Rams with a Week 18 showdown looming and an injured quarterback. NFL.com: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith suffered a knee injury in the second half of Sunday night’s 30-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers and did not return. Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald told reporters after the loss that it appeared Smith’s knee was structurally OK, but the extent of the injury was unclear. Smith will undergo further evaluation on Monday. “I’ll tell you this, this guy’s probably the toughest player I’ve been around,” Macdonald said of Smith. “(It was) severe enough for him not to come back in the game. We’ll do all the tests tomorrow and kind of figure it out as we go. Right now, structurally it looks like it’s OK. We’ll get him imaged and all that stuff.” Smith went down during the Seahawks’ second possession of the third quarter when he was hit low by Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper on a pass attempt. Smith lingered on the turf in noticeable pain and was replaced under center by veteran Sam Howell. The NBC broadcast later showed Smith exiting for the locker room for further evaluation. He eventually returned to the sideline and was seen on the bench with a wrap around his right knee. Smith was 15 of 19 with 149 yards and a costly red-zone interception at the time of the injury. Macdonald said that Smith initially wanted to return to the game, but it soon was determined that “he just couldn’t go.” Sunday’s loss dropped Seattle to 8-6 on the season and into a tie for first place atop the NFC West with the surging Los Angeles Rams. Smith’s health will be pivotal to the Seahawks’ playoff chances, which dropped to 37% after Sunday, per Next Gen Stats. The schedule doesn’t do the ‘Hawks any favors if they are forced to start Howell, who struggled in relief on Sunday, for extended time. Seattle hosts the playoff-bound Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 before a potential must-win game in Los Angeles against the Rams in the regular-season finale. “We’ve got to get the tests done,” Macdonald said when asked about a potential timeline for Smith. “I know we’ll do everything humanely possible to go play, but just don’t know right now.” |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYThe Chiefs actually had an easy win Sunday, but may have lost QB PATRICK MAHOMES for a spell. Adam Teicher of ESPN.com: Minutes after being removed from Sunday’s game because of an injured right ankle, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes said he was unclear whether he would be available to play next Saturday against the Houston Texans. “It’s hard to say right now,” Mahomes said after the Chiefs’ 21-7 victory against the Cleveland Browns. “You still [have the] adrenaline rolling and usually it’s kind of the day after when you kind of get a good sense of it. I feel like I could have finished the game in different circumstances, but I thought the smart decision … was to put Carson Wentz in. “… You just do what you have to do to get back, and I think that’s the most important thing. And now we just get back to the rehab part, the treatment part, and try to get ourselves ready on a short week against a good football team.” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Mahomes’ ankle was not broken. “It’s sore and he’ll get started on the rehab part of it as we go, and then we’ll just have to see how he does down the road here,” Reid said. Mahomes was removed midway through the fourth quarter after getting hit while throwing a fourth-down pass that was incomplete. The Chiefs were ahead 21-7 at the time, and Wentz finished the game. Mahomes remained on the sideline until the conclusion of the game and was limping as he walked off the field to the locker room. Reid also said Mahomes could have stayed in the game, adding, “There was no need for that.” “He wanted to fight about it, but we’ve got a good support there behind him with Carson and it was good to get him a few reps in there too and let our guys hear that snap count in case he has to go,” Reid said. On the play, Mahomes was dragged down from behind by Cleveland defender Dalvin Tomlinson while also getting hit high by Mike Hall. “I was trying to run up in the pocket, obviously fourth down, trying to make a play happen,” Mahomes said. “And as I threw the ball, I kind of got hit — and I haven’t seen it — but it felt like someone hit me from behind as well. And so I kind of just got rolled up on. It kind of happens in football, and so I tried to bounce back up, but obviously, it hurt a little bit. But now we’ll just get after the rehab part of it and try to be ready for next week. “I thought the defense was playing really well, and I wanted to go back out there, and I probably would’ve fought a little bit harder if they would’ve got the game to one score [margin]. But I have a lot of trust in Carson, too. … We put him out there and I thought he did a great job moving the football, running time off the clock and putting us in a position to win the football game.” Patrick Mahomes accounted for two touchdowns on Sunday, bringing his career total (282 passing, 18 rushing) to 300 in just 128 games, which is the fastest in NFL history. Mahomes was 19-of-38 for 159 yards and two touchdowns before leaving the game. Mahomes was hit on several pass attempts and was pressured 21 times, according to ESPN Research. As we go to press comes word that Mahomes’ ankle injury puts him “week-to-week” with the formidable Texans looming on Saturday. |
| AFC NORTH |
| BALTIMOREIt was only the Giants, but QB LAMAR JACKSON showed he wasn’t giving up the MVP to QB JOSH ALLEN without a fight on Sunday. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Lamar Jackson joined Michael Vick as the only quarterbacks with 6,000 career rushing yards during Sunday’s 35-14 win over the Giants, but the Ravens star did a lot more than run the ball in the victory. All five of the Ravens’ touchdowns came on passes by Jackson and he finished the day 21-of-25 for 290 yards through the air. It is the fifth time in Jackson’s career that he has thrown thrown five touchdowns while throwing five or fewer incompletions. Per NFL research, no other quarterback has had more than three games with in their career. Jackson also has seven overall games with more touchdown passes than incompletions, which is also the most in league history. Those kinds of numbers explain why Jackson is a two-time NFL MVP and it explains why the Ravens are a contender in the AFC even though Josh Allen is likely to win that award this year. |
| CLEVELANDRB NICK CHUBB is done for the final three games with a broken foot. Doric Sam of Bleacher Report: The Cleveland Browns will be without a key member of their offense indefinitely. Head coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters running back Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot after exiting Sunday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Chubb had rushed for 41 yards on nine carries before exiting the game. After suffering a torn MCL with damage to his ACL in Week 2 of the 2023 season, Chubb missed Cleveland’s first six games this year before making his season debut in Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He entered Sunday’s game against Kansas City with 291 rushing yards and a team-high three rushing touchdowns in seven appearances. Injuries have been a theme this season for the Browns, who have been eliminated from playoff contention and sit in last place in the AFC North with a 3-10 record. Multiple key players have missed significant time, including quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 7. With Chubb now set to miss time, Jerome Ford will be the primary ball-carrier. Third-string running back Pierre Strong Jr. would likely see increased touches until Chubb is able to return. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| JACKSONVILLETE BRENTON STRANGE had a career day on Sunday, more than doubling his previous career high of 5 with 11 catches. But not one of those grabs reached double digit with a long of 9. We wondered if that was unprecedented – and it isn’t, but it is rare and it is the first time it has happened this year. SINCE 2018 – 10+ Catches Without a Gain of 10+ Yards Rec-Yds Long Marquise Brown 12/19/2021 10-43 7 Brenton Strange 12/15/2024 11-73 9 Jaylen Waddle 09/26/2021 12-58 9 Austin Ekeler 10/17/2022 10-47 9 |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALOWe saw that QB JOSH ALLEN had an x-ray, but it took some digging to find out that it was on his throwing shoulder. Ryan Miller of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Josh Allen is playing head and shoulders above any quarterback in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills quarterback right shoulder checked out OK after another historic performance. Allen received X-rays on his right throwing shoulder after disemboweling the Detroit Lions for a 48-42 victory at Ford Field. “Just took a funky fall. More peace of mind than anything,” Allen said in his postgame press conference. “Everything checked so I’m good.” Allen landed on his right shoulder after taking a hit to the chest from defensive end Josh Paschal. He was also wrestled to the ground by linebackers Ben Niemann and Jack Campbell after keeping a read option and barreled into the ground on his right shoulder. “Just a funky feeling,” Allen said. “Was able to throw and no pain right now. More precaution than anything.” The Bills hung 559 yards of total offense on the Lions in the highest-scoring game of the NFL this season. The game had 1,080 yards of total offense and 58 first downs. Allen accounted for four touchdowns. He completed 23 of 34 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 68 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in eight straight games. It would appear that the Bills have tied the NFL record for most consecutive 30-point games in a single regular season with four other teams – the 2013 Peyton Manning Rams, two Tom Brady Patriots teams and the 1999 Rams Greatest Show on Turf. The Rams would go on in 2000 to set the overall record of 14 straght 30+-point games. The Bills have two games left with the Patriots, sandwiched around one with the Jets. The Pats have allowed 30+ points in four of their 14 games, including two of the last three. Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on why Allen is now the odds-on favorite for MVP: What he did Sunday: 23-of-34 for 362 passing yards with two touchdowns; 11 carries for 68 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in a 48-42 win over the Lions MVP odds, via ESPN BET: -900 That has led to one of the more stunning numbers I can share about a quarterback this season. As you can probably guess, most quarterbacks have their performances collapse under pressure. Leaguewide, passers have collectively posted a 67.3 QBR without pressure and a 32.8 QBR under duress this season, with their performance dropping off by 34.5 points of QBR. (Remember that Total QBR includes both sacks and scrambles.) Allen, somehow, has been better under pressure than he has without it. He has posted a staggering 89.1 QBR under pressure; just two other starting quarterbacks have posted a QBR better than 62 against pressure, and neither is within 16 points of Allen. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has thrown 10 touchdown passes without a single interception against pressure. Some quarterbacks can’t do that against air. That 89.1 QBR is the best anyone has ever posted under pressure in a single season by a considerable margin going back through 2009, when ESPN started to track pressure data. It’s probably telling that the guy he’s beating who previously had the single-season mark for QBR under pressure is … Josh Allen, who posted a 77.7 QBR mark against pressure two seasons ago. We’re seeing an even more impressive version of Allen in terms of mitigating pressure and avoiding the sorts of negative plays that sink drives for other teams. For much of the season, that high floor was driving Allen’s success, even if we more commonly associate him with highlight-reel plays. He still had a few of those, but he was generating value by avoiding sacks and interceptions, having made it through the first seven weeks of 2024 without throwing one. The picks eventually came, with five over a four-game span between October and November, but he still did enough to win all four of those games. What was missing instead were the chain-movers for first downs, the stuff between the checkdowns and the big gains. Before the Rams game, Allen ranked 14th in yards per attempt and 12th in yards per completion, figures we don’t typically expect for a player with Allen’s explosiveness. Just 34.8% of his pass attempts were turning into first downs, which ranked 19th. He was running the sixth-highest off-target rate of any quarterback, which can be a product of throwing the ball away into safe places, but the Allen we think of when we picture the superstar quarterback isn’t middle-of-the-pack when he throws the ball. After the past two weeks, those numbers are on the move. Allen is up to eighth in yards per attempt (8.0), and when factoring in his sack avoidance, he is third in yards per dropback (7.7), trailing only Jackson and Jordan Love. He’s now seventh in yards per completion (12.3), although he is still somehow only 13th in first down rate (35.8%). That figure isn’t as concerning if the first downs he produces are generating huge gains, which has been the case for Allen; he’s tied for the league lead alongside Sam Darnold with 52 gains of 20 yards or more. And he’s back on the turnover-free track, having gone three games without an interception or lost fumble. The soft factors also favor Allen. His team has already clinched a division title and has a shot at the best record in the AFC and a first-round bye, especially if Patrick Mahomes is sidelined for any length of the time by the high ankle sprain he suffered Sunday. Allen has a signature moment in a key game, with his fourth-and-2 scramble to score and seal up Buffalo’s victory over the previously undefeated Chiefs two weeks ago. Blowing out the Lions gives him another signature win. Barkley has to battle the running back stigma, while Jackson already has two awards and is the reigning champ. If Allen continues to star in Buffalo victories down the stretch, he’s going to win this award. Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com thinks it is an OVERREACTION to say that Allen has locked up the MVP Award – but concedes he is the favorite: Josh Allen locked up his MVP awardOverreaction or reality: OverreactionAllen has been making his case to earn his first MVP award after another outstanding performance in Sunday’s win over the Lions. has put up 340+ passing yards, 60+ rushing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns and 2+ rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games (the only other player to ever have a stat line like that for one game was Steve Young in 1991), showcasing how historic his run has been. Allen also had his second straight season with 25 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns while becoming the only player since the merger with six-plus passing touchdowns and six-plus rushing touchdowns in a three-game span (and this doesn’t include his receiving touchdown). He also has not been sacked, committed a fumble or thrown an interception during the stretch. So why doesn’t Allen have the MVP award locked up after leading the Bills to 48 points off a Lions defense that was allowing 15.8 points per game over the past four weeks? Lamar Jackson has thrown 34 touchdown passes to three interceptions this season, combined with his 743 rushing yards and three scores. Saquon Barkley is still on pace for 2,000 rushing yards as well. Allen is the frontrunner for MVP (and should get the award through 15 weeks), but he didn’t wrap it up yet. The Bills’ easy finish (Patriots, Jets, Patriots) significantly favors Allen down the stretch. |
| NEW ENGLANDQB DRAKE MAYO took a step back in the loss to the Cardinals: The New England Patriots struggled mightily yet again on Sunday, losing 30-17 to the Arizona Cardinals to drop to 3-11 on the year. In particular the offense was quite the eyesore; they managed only 90 yards in the first half and totaled all of three points before garbage time in the fourth quarter. At this point in the season it is not necessarily unexpected, but coming off a bye week this late in the season it was a shockingly terrible performance. Head coach Jerod Mayo seemed to express his frustration with the unit in a strange manner after the game while speaking to media. He was asked about one particularly questionable sequence for the Pats, when they had the ball at the Cardinals’ four-yard line in the third quarter and faced a third-and-one. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt called two run plays that were stuffed for no gain and New England turned the ball over on downs deep in enemy territory. Mayo took a question from a reporter asking if the Patriots would consider using the athletic Drake Maye to run in those sorts of situations, which seems like an obvious solution given the rookie has already exhibited an impressive ability to gain yards with his legs this year. Mayo responded, “You said it. I didn’t.” It was a strange answer that seemed to question the decision-making of his own offensive coordinator, and was taken as such by the general public. As such Mayo felt the need to backtrack on Monday morning. Meeting with media back in Foxborough, Mayo insisted he “didn’t mean anything” by the quote and it was more of a “defensive response” than anything. It is not the first time this season the rookie head coach has had to clarify what he meant while speaking to the press, which isn’t great for the Patriots. They have enough dumpster fires on the field to put out; the franchise doesn’t need additional negative attention in the form of careless quotes that require a clarification hours after the fact. Whatever progress Mayo has shown this season it’s clear he still has a long way to go when it comes to media savvy. |
| NEW YORK JETSCharles Robinson of YahooSports.com on the late season run by QB AARON RODGERS and sidekick WR DaVANTE ADAMS: Of course Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams walked through that door on Sunday. Of course the rendition of grumpy old men morphed into the dynamic duo, when the postseason is no longer on the line, but draft positioning most certainly is. Of course it happened when everyone of consequence has been fired and the only ones fighting for the second marriage of Rodgers’ and Adams’ careers are the quarterback and his favorite wide receiver. Of course. Because it’s the New York Jets. That’s what I thought late in the fourth quarter of the the New York Jets’ 32-25 comeback win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as Rodgers took advantage of a clean pocket and threw an unquestionably impressive 71-yard touchdown dart to Adams. It was the stuff of Green Bay Packers lore: Rodgers effortlessly wrist-flicking a rope down the middle of the field as Adams ruthlessly split a pair of defenders in coverage. The ball came down slightly over Adams’ left shoulder and perfectly into a two-handed cradle — in full stride. The two defenders on each side of Adams were helpless to stop it, and not even an angling third defender getting a clear shot to tackle him at the 5-yard line could stop the touchdown. Halfway down the field, Rodgers was running, screaming and fist-pumping, capturing what might be his most joyous moment of this lost season. In that highlight — maybe 30 seconds — everything was possible again and nothing else mattered. Not the 10 losses with three difficult games left on the schedule. Not the upper reaches of the organization already having been blown up. Not team owner Woody Johnson reportedly floating the idea of benching Rodgers a few months back. Not the looming guillotine of the coming offseason, when a decision will be made to either further blow this team up and start over yet again … or possibly keep it together and hope for different results. Instead, in this one game, Rodgers and Adams took everyone into the time machine and reminded us that who they are can still be who they were. To the tune of nine completions for 198 yards and two touchdowns. It was the most prolific performance between Rodgers and one of his Jets receivers, an outing capable of teasing some what-could-have-been emotions between the quarterback and wideout. “Yeah — yeah it did [feel like old times], except he dropped one,” Rodgers said afterward with a smile. “And I missed him on the next big third down. But yeah, [Davante] is a fantastic player. He dropped the one, said he got his dreads pulled. Whether that’s true or not, seemed like an excuse.” This was Rodgers in his happy, playful mode. In a season that has produced only four wins, you take the wind at your back when you get it. Even if it raises the question about where this kind of performance has been since the Jets acquired Adams two months ago, in the hopes that his connection with Rodgers could turn the season around. Rodgers has wondered, too. “Yeah, for sure,” he said Sunday. “You know, it’s too little, too late. But it’s still special. It doesn’t taint it at all. It doesn’t steal any of the joy of it. It doesn’t take away any of the fun that’s going to be on the bus just now, and then on the plane … it’s still going to be special. They’re always special. But this was a year for things that — we were close but we kind of let it get away from us in the middle of the season.” That reality might have defined the message Rodgers and Adams sent on Sunday: Yes, the season is dead. No, as a tandem, we are not. All of this sets up an audition of sorts, with both Rodgers and Adams wanting to play next season — together. Either with the Jets or elsewhere. Maybe with the Tennessee Titans, who are inching closer to needing to move off turnover-machine Will Levis and may need a one-year bridge quarterback to get to better draft options in 2026. Maybe it’s a one-year bridge role for the New York Giants or Las Vegas Raiders, if either franchise toys with the idea of redshirting Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward in 2025. Or maybe it’s just camping in place for another season and rolling with this same Jets squad for one last shot at achieving something, anything, better than the overwhelming disappointments of 2023 and 2024. Given what has gone on this season for the Jets — and a forthcoming regime that will likely want to clear the decks — it’s hard to see that latter development happening. Of course, that’s before you consider the other options the Jets have available to them. Barring a trade up that would be unwise in this weak quarterback draft, they will likely have no better than the third- or fourth-best quarterback on the draft board available to them. And that QB might not even be worthy of a first-round pick. Barring hell freezing over, the top free-agent quarterback, Sam Darnold, isn’t coming back to play for the Jets. Veteran trade options aren’t great. And while Rodgers isn’t cheap to keep around (he’s due a $35 million option bonus at the start of the 2025 season, along with $2.5 million in base salary) there might be a way to negotiate both he and Adams taking pay cuts to stick around and play together. Even for Rodgers and Adams, running it back again with the Jets might be their best and only chance to continue playing together. Which appears to be a priority for both in 2025.There aren’t a wealth of quarterback depth charts across the league that make a Rodgers addition sensible, let alone Rodgers and Adams. And if they somehow manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat in the remaining three games — including winnable home games against the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins — and one scary road game against a Buffalo Bills team that is probably the best in the NFL right now, then some attitudes might shift inside the Jets. Finishing 7-10 and with a four-game winning streak isn’t exactly good. But a sales pitch could include having an offseason of Rodgers and Adams working together, along with a polishing of the roster with a new general manager and head coach. There’s some fresh air to sell. Whether anyone buys it will hang on how the next three weeks play out. For his part, Rodgers appeared to move better against the Jaguars. Not only was he sliding around the pocket, he accessed his ability to run. It was a far cry from most of the season, when he looked like he might have lost a large portion of his athleticism from the waist down. Instead, Rodgers had some unexpected pep, and used it to create a handful of tantalizing moments with Adams. He finished with six rushes for 45 yards, after having only 56 total rushing yards in the season’s first 13 games. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| 2025 DRAFTThe Giants are likely to claim the first pick in the draft after Sunday’s loss to the Ravens per Cale Clinton of The Athletic who says the field is basically down to five teams. Only three weeks remain in the 2024 NFL regular season, but about a quarter of the league’s 32 teams are already looking ahead to 2025. The next month for those franchises is about building for the future as they vie for the top pick in the NFL Draft. The race for the No. 1 spot continues to thin out. The New York Jets’ win over the Jacksonville Jaguars effectively eliminates the Jets from the No. 1 race. After having the fourth-best odds for the No. 1 pick last week, the Jets at 4-10 now have less than 1 percent odds of finishing with the top pick. Only five teams have more than a 2 percent chance to finish with the No. 1 pick. Scenarios continue to consolidate around the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. While the Raiders do not play until Monday night, the Giants’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens now has them at nearly one-in-two odds of securing the top pick. New York Giants (2-12)The Giants didn’t need a last-second field-goal block to secure an uptick in their odds this week. Baltimore handled business in a thorough dismantling of the Giants, with Lamar Jackson throwing five touchdowns against the Giants’ secondary. New York may be down to its fourth-string quarterback after losing this game. After Drew Lock was placed in a walking boot and ruled out of Sunday’s game, Tommy DeVito exited the game with a concussion. He was replaced by practice squad elevation Tim Boyle, who finished the game. With a daunting schedule remaining and a quarterback roster continuing to thin out, it’s tough to imagine the Giants stumbling into a win and falling out of pole position.The New York Giants have a 48% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the draftRemaining schedule: at Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, at Philadelphia Eagles. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)The Raiders will have more concrete odds after Monday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. Until then, though, the Raiders’ odds have slightly slipped down from 35 percent last week. The Raiders remain in second place behind the Giants because of the weaker strength of schedule. However, Las Vegas also keeps losing key players. Less than a week after quarterback Aidan O’Connell was carted off the field, defensive end Maxx Crosby confirmed he will undergo season-ending ankle surgery. Strength of schedule will be key to deciding between the Raiders and the Giants, and right now, Las Vegas has an easier schedule. If the losses pile up and they lose out, the Raiders can secure the top spot. The Las Vegas Raiders have a 31% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the draftRemaining schedule: Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, at New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers. New England Patriots (3-11)The Patriots are another team with a double-digit percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. Even with the third-best odds, though, New England needs wins from both Las Vegas and New York to even be competitive in the top overall pick rate. However, the Patriots remain one of the most competitive three-win teams for the No. 1 pick, and with two games against the Buffalo Bills in the next three weeks, they will likely stay competitive for the pick as the season progresses. The New England Patriots have a 10% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the draftRemaining schedule: at Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills. Carolina Panthers (3-11)Carolina’s string of one-score losses to competent teams ended Sunday with a blowout 30-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. After showing a lot of positive growth over the last few weeks, the Panthers reminded the league that this is a team still very much in need of a top pick. They’ll likely vie for a top-five pick in 2025, but the odds the Panthers finish with the top pick in back-to-back seasons (last year’s was traded to Chicago as part of the move-up to get Bryce Young) is small and continues to shrink. The Carolina Panthers have a 5% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the draftRemaining schedule: Arizona Cardinals, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Atlanta Falcons. Cleveland Browns (3-11)There were no Jameis Winston-fueled surprises against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Cleveland handily lost 21-7 to the Chiefs, but losses hardly matter in an already lost season. The real issue for the Browns is the increasing number of injuries piling up. Cleveland lost running back Nick Chubb in the third quarter to a broken foot, while Myles Garrett briefly exited Sunday with an eye injury. The Cleveland Browns have a 4% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the draftRemaining schedule: at Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens. |
