w-l               conf          16       17        18

Baltimore        North    11-3              7-3            sf       MIA      PIT

Miami              East     10-4              7-3          DAL     bal       BUF

Kansas City    West       9-5             7-2           LV       CIN      lac

Jacksonville    South     8-6              6-5           tb        CAR    ten                                                                    

Cleveland        WC1      9-5             6-3           hou      NYJ     cin

Cincinnati         WC2     8-6             3-6           pit         kc       CLV

Indianapolis     WC3      8-6             6-4          atl          lv        HOU

Houston                         8-6             5-4          CLV      TEN    ind

Buffalo                           8-6             4-5           lac        NE      mia

Pittsburgh                      7-7             5-5          CIN       sea      balt

Denver                          7-7             4-5           NE        LAC     lv

We note that for all their apparent dominance, the Dolphins are far from in.  If they split the next two games and Buffalo takes care of business against lesser teams, the final game is for the AFC title.  With a win, the 11-6 Bills would  have a sweep over the 11-6 Dolphins.

The Super Bowl preview – or at least the game between the two top current seeds – on Christmas night, Monday, Baltimore at San Francisco.

Other thoughts – two weeks ago, the Jaguars could have taken the top seed in the AFC with a win over Cincinnati, but that didn’t happen.  Now, they are in a three-way tie for the AFC South lead.  Huge game this week at the Buccaneers, who are in their own three-way division race.

Of the three AFC South teams, the one most likely to go 3-0 would seem to be the Colts.

Cincinnati is only 3-6 in the conference, which normally would be bad for tiebreakers.  But their three AFC wins are over Buffalo, Indianapolis and Jacksonville which is great for head-to-head tiebreakers.  The Bengals are 0-4 in the AFC North, so likely to lose tiebreakers with Cleveland or Pittsburgh – but against teams from the other divisions they have three good wins.

And despite their dreadful showing in Detroit, keep an eye on the Broncos.  They may not be very good, but with home games against the Patriots and Chargers they are likely to be 9-7 before going to Vegas for the winnable finale.

– – –

When are they going to play the Brazil game next season?  It could be Week 1 per Peter King.

A 2024 Kickoff Weekend Thursday doubleheader? It’s being discussed. One exec told me over the weekend the possibility for the first NFL regular-season game in South America to be played sometime in week one next year is “strong.”

According to the Internet, Sao Paolo is currently two hours ahead of US EST.  And Brazil does not use Daylight Savings Time.  So just one hour ahead in September.

So a 7 pm kick in Sao Paolo would be 8 pm in New York.  But would the NFL jump the 2023 champion?  How about Friday of Week 1?  NFL thinking along those line.  More from King:

Imagine that. A Thursday twinbill in week one … or maybe a Thursday primetime game with the Super Bowl champ, and, a night later, a primetime game from South America—perhaps with Tua to Tyreek. Interesting options on the table.

“All options are on the table.” Someone Who Knows told me that over the weekend.

Someone has briefed King on exactly what those option are:

The NFL is considering playing the Sao Paolo game in week one. Kickoff weekend is early this year—Sept. 5-9—because Labor Day is Sept. 2. Because the restrictions on interfering with Friday-night high-school games and Saturday college-football games don’t take effect until the second full weekend of September, the NFL could schedule a game on Friday night, Sept. 6, or Saturday the 7th. So it won’t be a surprise if the Sao Paolo game becomes part of a Thursday doubleheader, or a Thursday, Friday or Saturday standalone game—with the Super Bowl champ opening the season at home on Sunday night. It’s happened before.

It’s a hike to get to Sao Paolo. The game is likely to feature an NFC home team, because NFC teams have nine home games in 2024. Say the home team is Dallas. It’s a 10-hour, 10-minute flight from Dallas to Sao Paolo, which means a team likely would want to spend either a week there or most of a week before playing a game.

Miami is the only team that currently has made Brazil an international home marketing area, part of the NFL programs to increase individual teams’ profiles in foreign countries. So it would be logical to think the Dolphins would be one of the teams in Sao Paolo—except that the team flew nine hours to Frankfurt to play Kansas City this year. The league may want to showcase other teams in Brazil, and it’s likely that Miami would have to volunteer to go given it just went to Germany. If Miami is one of the teams, the Dolphins have three road games against NFC teams in 2024: Rams, Seahawks, and the parallel finisher in the NFC North. So maybe that team is Detroit.

Why Sao Paolo instead of other places? It’s the biggest city in South America (not just Brazil), with a metro-area population of 21.7 million. (New York City has 18.8 million people.) The stadium, Arena Corinthians, hosted the opener of 2014 World Cup and is nine years old. It has 89 suites and natural ryegrass. The city’s not a natural beauty, but NFL metrics pointed to a huge Brazilian fan base as a big reason why it was chosen for a 2024 game over Spain. That plus there was more enthusiasm inside the league to go somewhere new and intensely interested rather than choosing another site in western Europe. This broadens the league’s international footprint.

One last point about logistics: Say the game is played on Thursday of week one. The two teams would likely land back in their home cities sometime around mid-day on Friday. Players theoretically would have Friday night, Saturday, Sunday (and maybe Monday) to fix body clocks before beginning prep work for week two. It’s not too onerous.

I think my gut feeling is the NFL would be happy with Dolphins-Lions sometime on kickoff weekend in Brazil.

DETROIT

Peter King:

Vikings-Lions. How great would it be if they faced off Dec. 24, Jan. 7 and Jan. 13? As of today, three meetings in 21 days is a distinct possibility.

Actually – the DB doesn’t like teams meeting twice in the final three weeks of the season.

And this from King:

Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 97 receptions a year in his first three seasons. He needs 10 catches in the last three weeks to average 100 a year over his first three years. He produces even when blanketed, which is the sign of a great receiver.

And this, with QB JARED GOFF one of his players of the week:

Jared Goff, quarterback, Detroit. After a string of giveaway games (nine turnovers in the last four games), Goff played one of the best of his life Saturday night against Denver. Competing against a defense that had gotten the Broncos back in the playoff race, Goff had the second 5-0 of his career (five touchdown passes, zero interception), completing 24 of 34 throws for 278 yards and three TDs to rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Just when we began to doubt the Lions, Goff brought the team, and his game, back from the brink.

PHILADELPHIA

Can Matt Patricia save the Eagles defense?  Peter King:

I think Nick Sirianni’s got some trust to rebuild with the Eagles’ press corps—not that this is front-of-mind for a coach whose team has allowed 34, 42 and 33 points in the last three games entering tonight’s important game in Seattle. He was asked at his press conference last Monday if he was considering any coaching changes in the wake of the recent defensive lapses. He said no. “I feel good with the people that we have in this building,” Sirianni said. “We’re 10-3. We’re in control of our own destiny, and we’re going to keep rolling and finding answers with the people that we have.” As Jay Glazer reported Sunday, defensive coordinator Sean Desai is the DC in name only now; Matt Patricia has begun running the defense and will be in charge tonight in Seattle. Maybe Sirianni, on his own, had a total 180 after he met the press Monday. Maybe, but it seems dubious that Sirianni wasn’t at least thinking about making a change seeing that this was a huge change. There’s also the chance he was forced into it by someone or some people above him. Whatever it was, this is a bad look for Sirianni.

C’mon, Sirianni is far from the first coach to dodge coaching-change questions until they actually make a change.  And, everyone is still employed, albeit responsibilities may be shuffled.

ATLANTA

Are the Falcons underperforming and does that put Coach Arthur Smith’s job in jeopardy?  Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com:

Arthur Smith stood at the podium, trying to explain what happened. Inside the Atlanta Falcons’ locker room, a morose, sullen vibe hung in the air and in the words of his players.

Atlanta entered Sunday with playoff aspirations, tied atop a subpar NFC South with everything in the Falcons’ control. By the end of a 9-7 loss to the Carolina Panthers, owners of the worst record in the NFL, the Falcons were left needing help to make the postseason and with legitimate questions about the futures of Smith and his quarterback, Desmond Ridder.

Smith was asked bluntly: “You have three games left, [but] on what basis do you believe you’re the right coach for this team?”

Smith’s answer essentially came down to belief in himself and what he has been building in Atlanta. His players backed him, too.

“In any job you take, you gotta have a lot of self-belief. You know, this is the cycle of it. There’s consequences when you lose so these are natural questions, right,” Smith said. “It’s NFL 101. Your job is to win games. There’s a lot of things that … everybody’s situation is different. There’s a lot of things that we’ve dealt with early on but ultimately, you know, the job is to win games and get into the playoffs.

“We’ll still have that opportunity. It’ll look like a long shot but each one of these years has been different. We’ve got three different teams. Movement at some critical spots, but your job is to win. We’ve made a lot of good … but I’ve got a ton of self-belief.”

For 10 minutes Smith answered questions while his boss, Falcons owner Arthur Blank, sat in the third row of the postgame news conference. Blank attends every postgame presser, win or lose.

His head coach was asked about everything — his job security, whether Ridder was still his starting quarterback, turnovers at critical times and a failure of the defense to stop a game-winning drive.

Had Smith been told anything about his future?

“Not like a state of the union,” Smith said. “Every day you go in there, try the best you can at your job. And that’s all we work on. It’s improving, trying to win games.”

That’s been the question for Atlanta. Has the improvement come? If it has, has it been enough? The majority of Atlanta’s losses this season have come from a combination of two things: Bad turnovers at critical times and the defense allowing a late, game-winning drive.

Both occurred Sunday against Carolina. A fumble by rookie running back Bijan Robinson gave the Panthers their only starting field position in Atlanta territory and led to a field goal. Ridder threw an interception in the red zone with 7:35 left that led to the Panthers’ eventual game-winning drive and an Eddy Pineiro field goal as time expired.

“This one hurts,” defensive lineman Calais Campbell said. “I feel like we didn’t make the plays when we needed to.”

The defense didn’t allow a touchdown, but the Panthers’ last two drives led to field goals.

Seven points scored on offense. A seventh win not attained. Far too many questions unanswered, where Smith once again said they’ll be evaluating everything, including whether Ridder will remain the starting quarterback.

They’ve done this before. For every positive thing that happens with the Falcons, a negative seems sure to follow.

In two weeks, Atlanta went from controlling its fate to having a 17% chance of making the playoffs and a 12% chance of winning the NFC South. Now, the Falcons will be dependent on others as much as anything they do to make the postseason.

If you saw it, the Ridder interception was absolutely brutal.  Scott Bair of the Falcons website notes its not the first one.

The Falcons secured a first down inside the red zone with roughly nine minutes remaining, well within Younghoe Koo’s field goal range.

They were in position to eat clock and cling to a slim lead. A kick through the uprights would force Carolina to score a touchdown to beat Atlanta in a rain-soaked Week 15 contest at Bank of America Stadium.

“You’re in scoring position and hoping to (at least) get a field goal,” head coach Arthur Smith said. “It changes what you’ve got to defend. The dynamics are completely different. That’s not what happened.”

After a run for no gain, something far worse came to pass. Quarterback Desmond Ridder made a critical mistake that was the turning point in a 9-7 Panthers victory on Sunday. The loss put the Falcons season in big trouble.

Atlanta was in a good spot nearing midway through the fourth quarter. The mission on 2nd-and-10 was to play it smart, minimize risk and come away with at least three points. Ridder did something different.

He took a snap from the 18-yard line and rolled to his left, as instructed, with Marquis Haynes Sr. in hot pursuit. Ridder avoided getting tripped up in the backfield and then got a block from KhaDarel Hodge that would’ve allowed him to run for a minimal gain.

But, as he approached the sideline, Ridder cocked and fired.

“I was trying to get (the pass) back inside,” Ridder said. “Any time you’re throwing late over the middle, it’s probably not a good idea. I was trying to make a play, and I tried to do too much.”

He tried to get a chunk play when retaining possession was his primary job requirement in that moment. Ridder had Kyle Pitts well covered on the left sideline, Drake London too far to the right and Cordarrelle Patterson deep with a few defenders in between.

The pass ended up going right to Carolina safety Xavier Woods at the Panthers 5-yard line.

Ridder dropped to his knees after the play and looked despondently toward the sky. He and the Falcons knew that moment spelled trouble.

“We turned the ball the over late,” head coach Arthur Smith said. “You do that, and you lose.”

That they did.

After the interception, the Panthers marched 90 yards down field on 17 plays and beat Atlanta with an Eddy Pineiro field goal as time expired. The Falcons loss, combined with wins by the Buccaneers and Saints, puts Atlanta behind in the NFC South standings and primary tiebreakers with three games to play.

While the loss doesn’t completely hang on Ridder, his red-zone turnover was the turning point. This is not the first time that hasn’t been the case either, with too many winnable games ending up as losses due to mistakes from the quarterback spot.

Above all else, inconsistency in all facets as been an problematic and costly to the Falcons this season.

“I mean, obviously, that’s what we’re trying to eliminate,” Smith said. “And we’ve been trying all season. And I think what’s hurt us the most is clearly the turnovers.”

The Falcons had a minus-2 turnover differential against Carolina, in a game where inclement weather made field position and mistake-free football vital.

Ridder has made too many mistakes too often this season. He has 10 interceptions and 11 fumbles in 2023, including a way-too-high number of turnovers in the red zone. He has also turned the ball over twice inside the Falcons 20-yard line this season.

Those are high numbers that can negate much of the good he has done this season. It certainly puts a question mark on his overall evaluation, as the Falcons determine whether he’s the team’s long-term answer at quarterback.

There’s possibly a short-term answer to be debated as well. While the plan has been to start Ridder the rest of the season, Smith wouldn’t commit to a quarterback moving forward after the Panthers loss.

“There’s a lot of things — nothing’s ever set in stone,” Smith said. “You’ve got to evaluate and adapt. Just like the questions you’re asking about personnel and what you got to do, we got to find a way and we need to win.”

TAMPA BAY

This:

@PewterReport

Don’t look now, but Baker Mayfield is having a better season than Tom Brady had last year in Tampa.

Brady finished 2022 w/25 TDs, 9 INTs and 8 wins.

Mayfield has tossed 24 TDs, 8 INTs and the #Bucs have 7 wins – with 3 games to go in the regular season.

Not sure it’s a “better” season, but it is pretty comparable.

That said, arguably no visiting QB has ever had a better day at Lambeau Field than Mayfield did Sunday.  Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

For years, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield idolized Green Bay Packers Pro Football Hall of Famer Brett Favre — even donning a pair of jean shorts to re-create Favre’s iconic 1991 NFL draft day photo when Mayfield was selected first in the 2018 draft.

But on Sunday, in the Bucs’ 34-20 victory over the Packers, one of Mayfield’s career-best performances, he did something not even the ol’ gunslinger managed to do: Post a perfect passer rating of 158.3 at Lambeau Field.

Mayfield threw for 381 passing yards and four touchdowns, becoming the second quarterback in NFL history to post a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field, joining former Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who did so against the then-Oakland Raiders in 2019.

Mayfield’s performance, punctuated by a 52-yard touchdown throw to wide receiver David Moore with 6:40 to go, lifted the Bucs to a 7-7 record and their third straight win. Coupled with a loss by the Atlanta Falcons, the Bucs now have a 69% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics.

Mayfield is the third player to have at least 375 passing yards, four touchdown throws and a 158.3 rating in a road game in NFL history, joining Nick Foles (Nov. 3, 2013 at Oakland, with Philadelphia) and Ken O’Brien (Nov. 2, 1986 at Seattle, with the New York Jets).

“He’s meant everything,” coach Todd Bowles said of Mayfield, who last week orchestrated a game-winning touchdown drive to defeat the Falcons on the road 29-25. “From a mental standpoint to a quarterback standpoint, making plays. From a toughness standpoint. From a leadership standpoint. He’s done everything. He’s checked all the boxes. He’s doing all the right things now and I can’t say enough about him.”

In two other trips to Green Bay as a member of the Cleveland Browns in 2021 and the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, Mayfield went 0-2 and threw five interceptions, completing fewer than 60% of his passes. But Sunday, he completed 78.6% of his passes and threw 16 yards shy of his personal-best 397 passing yards against the Houston Texans in 2018.

“Third time’s a charm, that’s for sure,” Mayfield said with a smile. “Our team was really prepared to come in here. Just liked we talked about that mentality, the playoff mentality, to come in here with one job in mind and just find a way to win, and we did that. So just couldn’t be happier with this group. We will enjoy it, but then hit the reset button onto next week.”

The 2023 season has been Mayfield’s chance to hit the reset button on his career. He signed a one-year deal with the Bucs in March — his third team since the Browns traded him away 17 months ago — for $4 million with incentives that push it to $8.5 million. He has helped position them toward their third straight NFC South title and fourth consecutive trip to the postseason but their first without Tom Brady.

“He’s gritty and he’s a baller — he’s as fiery as they come,” said wide receiver Chris Godwin, who caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 receiving yards. “And you want that. You want your guy to be out there and to compete. Like there’s no flinch in him. He gets banged up. He gets hit. And he’s right back in it. Like there’s never any hesitation in him. We love that. We respect that in him. I’m happy for him. He came out here and found a way to ball.”

It wasn’t all smooth sailing. In the first quarter, Mayfield was sacked by outside linebacker Kingsley Enagbare, who forced a fumble and recovered it at the Tampa Bay 9, setting up a 5-yard touchdown from Packers quarterback Jordan Love to tight end Tucker Kraft.

But Mayfield answered on the next drive by doing something few expected against one of the league’s worst statistical run defenses: He starting passing the ball a lot to open the second quarter. First came a 14-yard pass on a slant pattern to wide receiver Mike Evans and a 25-yard pass on a crossing route to Godwin. Then he hit Evans on a 19-yard touchdown pass.

Evans was one of four different receiving targets who hauled in a touchdown — the most in a Bucs game since 2021 and one shy of the franchise record of five in 2015 and 2020. The others? Running back Rachaad White, who had a 26-yard catch-and-run that with the point after made it 20-10. Then came a 2-yard touchdown pass to Ko Kieft in the flat, set up by a 22-yard pass to tight end Cade Otton over the middle.

Then came Moore, who hadn’t scored an NFL touchdown since 2020, on third-and-4, to seal the victory. Kieft’s touchdown was just the second of his career and his first catch of the season.

“Impeccable. It was just amazing,” Moore said of Mayfield. “He didn’t let anything get in the way. He didn’t let anything get in his mental. He just kept putting his foot forward and kept pushing, leading our team.”

Mayfield downplayed the significance of his performance, choosing instead to focus on the team and what’s ahead. The Bucs next host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Christmas Eve. The Falcons’ loss to the Carolina Panthers gave them some breathing room in the NFC South, but the New Orleans Saints beating the New York Giants means they are 7-7 too, and the Bucs host them Dec. 31.

“I’ll be honest. December games are all important,” Mayfield said. “This one was very important, but this one won’t matter unless we hit the reset button and move on to next week. It can’t be more special than any other. It is the most important one now, but enjoy it, and then we will move on to next week. That is the mentality we have to have as a unit.”

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers are the NFC West champs! Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The 49ers are the NFC West champions and they are a step closer to securing the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

Christian McCaffrey scored three touchdowns and Deebo Samuel found the end zone twice as the 49ers set a new season-high in points. The 45-29 win over the Cardinals moved them to 11-3 on the year and ensures that they will stay at the top of the conference regardless of what the Eagles do on Monday night.

McCaffrey ran for 115 yards and a touchdown to go with five catches for 72 yards and two more scores. He scored seven touchdowns in the Niners’ two wins over Arizona and his 20 touchdowns have him tied with Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert for the league lead.

Both of Samuel’s touchdowns came on passes from Brock Purdy, who continued to make his MVP case by completing 16-of-25 passes for 245 yards.

If the 49ers are looking for something to dislike about Sunday’s performance, their run defense will fit the bill. The Cardinals ran for 234 yards over the course of the afternoon, but Hollywood Brown did not play despite being active and Kyler Murray was lacking in targets other than tight end Trey McBride. Murray was 26-of-39 for 211 yards and a touchdown, but a big chunk of the yards came late and he was picked off twice by cornerback Charvarius Ward.

The Cardinals, who fell to 3-11 with the loss, will be in Chicago next Sunday.

Ward returned the first of those picks for a touchdown, so the pass defense made up for the shortcomings on a defensive front that was missing Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave. They’ll hope to be better up front when the Ravens pay them a Christmas night matchup between a pair of Super Bowl contenders.

– – –

With QB DAK PRESCOTT presiding over a lopsided defeat, QB BROCK PURDY would seem to the frontrunner for MVP after leading another high-scoring win (we would think QB LAMAR JACKSON is now next in line, making Week 17 in SF an MVP showdown).  But Purdy thinks the award should go to a non-QB per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

After San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey had finished shredding the Arizona Cardinals for the second time this season to clinch the Niners’ second consecutive NFC West division crown, he received a significant show of support in the race for the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

Roughly 30 minutes following the Niners’ 45-29 throttling of the Cardinals to improve to 11-3, quarterback Brock Purdy was asked what the case would be for McCaffrey to win MVP. Instead of offering arguments, Purdy provided an endorsement.

“I think Christian should be MVP,” Purdy said. “I really do believe that. He does everything for us … and so in my eyes that’s an MVP.”

Purdy is always quick to deflect praise for others. But in this instance, it was more notable given that Purdy himself is considered one of the top contenders to win the award. And though Purdy had also just put the finishing touches on another big day, it was McCaffrey who once again shined brightest against the Cardinals.

Despite briefly departing the game in the second quarter with a knee issue, McCaffrey posted 18 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown on the ground and five catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns through the air. In two games against the Cardinals this season, McCaffrey has 364 scrimmage yards on 50 touches to go with seven touchdowns.

Those seven touchdowns are tied for the most by any player against a team in a season in the Super Bowl era.

“Sometimes it’s just the way it goes,” McCaffrey said. “You don’t really know what games you’re going to have big games.”

For McCaffrey, the big games have seemingly come just about every week as he continues to etch his name into San Francisco and NFL record books:

With a receiving and rushing touchdown Sunday, McCaffrey has 15 career games in which he has scored both ways. That ties him with Marshall Faulk for the most such games in NFL history.

With 1,292 rushing yards and 509 receiving yards on the season, McCaffrey is the fourth player in NFL history to record at least 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in four or more season in his career, joining Faulk, Thurman Thomas and Tiki Barber.

McCaffrey’s 6,018 rushing yards and 4,265 receiving yards since entering the NFL in 2017 make him the third player ever — along with Faulk and Roger Craig — to hit those marks in his first seven seasons.

All of those milestones are coming in the midst of a season in which McCaffrey, 27, might be the best he has been in his career. On the year, McCaffrey has 20 total touchdowns, tied with Miami’s Raheem Mostert for most in the league, and his six 100-yard rushing games are the most of any player in the league. He has also posted 100-plus yards from scrimmage in 11 games this year, tied with Craig for the most in a season in franchise history.

Suffice to say, all of that contributes to a compelling MVP case for McCaffrey even if coach Kyle Shanahan prefers not to choose between his two in-house candidates.

“I don’t have to differentiate, thank goodness,” Shanahan said. “But I’ve been around a couple MVPs probably in my career and … this is the most obvious thing to me. I might be biased being on their team but I don’t think so.”

While McCaffrey was racking up more big numbers Sunday, Purdy wasn’t exactly hurting his case. He finished 16-of-25 for 242 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 135.3.

It’s the third game this season Purdy has thrown at least four touchdowns with no picks, tying him with Steve Young (1994) and Jeff Garcia (2000) for the most in a season in franchise history. His 29 touchdown passes on the season are the most by a Niner since Garcia had 32 in 2001.

Purdy’s latest efficient outing came on a day when, like McCaffrey, he also had to depart for a short time with injury. With 4:13 left in the second quarter, Purdy took a hit to the helmet from Cardinals pass rusher Dennis Gardeck that drew a penalty for roughing the passer.

The hit left Purdy on the field in pain for what was later diagnosed as a left shoulder stinger. He slowly walked into the blue medical tent before being cleared to return three snaps later.

Purdy said after the game it was the first time he’s had a stinger in his career. But based on what teammates have told him about the injury, he said the key is to let it play out because it’s possible the pain will subside quickly.

“I just laid there for a sec, let it calm down,” Purdy said. “Literally as time went on, it just started going away and that’s why I was able to get back in there.”

When it was his turn at the dais, McCaffrey joined left tackle Trent Williams to answer questions in tandem, dubbing themselves “Rob & Big,” the duo made popular on a reality show about professional skateboarder Rob Dyrdek and Christopher “Big” Boykin, Dyrdek’s best friend and bodyguard.

As Williams was asked how he would choose between Purdy and McCaffrey, he quickly shut down the question with a chuckle. Asked whether Williams should also be in the MVP conversation, McCaffrey said, “He’s got my vote.”

But the one thing both players and everyone else asked about the topic continue to make clear is that the Lombardi Trophy is the only one they truly value.

“We got the best running back in the NFL, so for him to get MVP consideration, I think that’s his just due,” Williams said. “And same way with Brock. Brock has been playing his but-t off. … I couldn’t be more proud of both of these guys … and I mean who cares, long as we can bring that trophy back to Santa Clara. That’s all I’m worried about.”

We know he doesn’t have the numbers, but WR DEEBO SAMUEL also makes MVP-like plays for the 49ers.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Peter King:

I have great regard for the Rams. With the Saints and Giants coming up, they could be 9-7 entering week 18, with a playoff spot on the line against San Francisco in Levi’s. What if the Niners have nothing to play for?

Well, actually, 9-8 could still be enough to get the Rams into the playoffs.  We’ll look at that tomorrow.

Dan Graziano also likes the Rams, to a point:

The Rams are the most dangerous of the 7-7 NFC playoff contenders

One of the league’s youngest teams, the Rams entered this season with relatively low expectations from outside observers. The core of the team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago was thinned out significantly, with quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald left to help teach a bunch of first- and second-year guys how to win on the fly.

The Rams were 3-6 at the bye, but they have gone 4-1 since — including a victory over Washington on Sunday — and the lone loss in that stretch was their wild Week 14 overtime loss in Baltimore. Stafford has multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. You could make the case that no one in the NFC outside of San Francisco has been playing better over the past five weeks.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I’m not 100% sure the Rams have enough on defense to scare anyone come postseason time. If the season ended right now, for example, they’d play a first-round playoff game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Is anyone saying they’d like them to beat the Eagles on the road?

But what they showed in Week 14 against the Ravens, even though they ended up losing, was that Stafford and the offense can go toe-to-toe with anybody right now. They may need to win shootouts, and that’s a tough way to win in the postseason. But could they throw enough points on the scoreboard to take out one of the top NFC contenders if said contender had an off night? They have a coach, a quarterback and an excellent defensive lineman who won the Super Bowl 22 months ago.

I don’t know who’s going to be excited about drawing this team in the first round. I’d definitely rather play the Vikings, Buccaneers or Saints, if we’re talking about 7-7 teams.

If the Rams can go toe-to-toe with the Ravens in Baltimore, they surely can have success against the current incarnation of the Eagles.

KANSAS CITY

Peter King quotes QB whisperer BLAINE GABBERT:

Gabbert was Tom Brady’s backup on the Super Bowl Bucs. He’s one of football’s most thoughtful players. I asked Gabbert, Mahomes’ backup and confidant, how the best player in football was handling the constant miscues on offense.

“In any NFL season, in any player’s career, every team each season has to find new ways to win,” Gabbert said. “You have to evolve. They’re used to being extremely explosive here. They’ve been probably the best in the NFL in the last seven years at big plays. Defenses know that. It’s kind of a chess match back and forth. We’re just trying to find different ways to win. How can we attack this defense in a different way than, let’s say, in years past.

“Patrick knows every single season’s different and you have to find different ways to win. This year, we know that a punt isn’t necessarily the worst thing, right? We just gotta grind out these grimy wins.

“There’s eerie parallels between this season and the season that we had in 2020 in Tampa, where you gotta find different ways to win, and we ended up winning the Super Bowl. We had this conversation I think earlier this week.”

Mahomes, in a quiet hallway outside the locker room, surprised me a bit with his answer when I asked about Gabbert’s analysis, and this choppy, choppy offensive season. “I actually think it’s been really good for me as a player,” he said. “You want to score every drive, but we haven’t, obviously, and we’ve had our struggles. It’s helped me grow not only as a player but as a person. What I got from Blaine, who I think got it from Tom, is you gotta find a way to win the ugly games. Because there are going to be ugly games. I understand a little bit more now, so now let’s clean up these little miscues and transition into the rest of the year. That’s what we talk about. We can do it.”

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Peter King on the mess that could be the head of QB JUSTIN HERBERT:

In four years of college football at Oregon, Justin Herbert had three head coaches, three offensive coordinators (two men shared the job when he was a sophomore) and two quarterback coaches.

In four years of pro football with the Chargers, Herbert has had three head coaches, three offensive coordinators and three quarterback coaches.

Herbert will be 26 in 2024, his ninth season in college and pro football. He will have his seventh head coach in those nine years, and likely his seventh offensive coordinator and sixth quarterback coach. The Chargers had no control over those first four years. But if the Chargers hand Herbert his fourth head coach, fourth coordinator and fourth QB coach since 2020, is that any way to maximize the talent of the most important player in your franchise?

CINCINNATI

Peter King:

Kudos, Bengals. The one thing that sometimes gets lost in analyzing quarterbacks coming out of college is the experience factor. But there’s little doubt that 46 college starts in a Power 5 conference helped Brock Purdy adjust quickly to NFL life. Ditto Jake Browning and his 50 starts at Washington.

Browning’s recent 3-0 run—putting up 34, 34 and 27 points—in relief of the injured Joe Burrow has featured throw after fearless throw against three teams that might make the playoffs. Great example on Saturday against the formidable Vikings D, when he’d put up three points through nearly three quarters, then engineered three long scoring drives to send the game to overtime. “If something goes negatively,” coach Zac Taylor told me, “he doesn’t let that bother him the next play. That comes from experience. He doesn’t overreact to good or bad things. Joe’s the same way. We’re fortunate to have two guys that are built very similarly there, because it’s a vital part of becoming a good quarterback.”

I like what Taylor told his team the night before the Minnesota game. “Last night I told our guys, ‘Who’s got the second-longest winning streak in the AFC? We do – with two wins.’ It just paints a picture of what’s happening around the AFC. I said, ‘Don’t worry about everybody else. Everyone else is dealing with their own stuff. Just focus on us and let’s build this into a three-game winning streak.’” It’ll be a tough road to the postseason—at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, Cleveland—but who thought the Bengals would be in position to get there when Burrow went down?

On the flip side – NFL teams has used high draft picks recently on underserved MITCH TRUBISKY and TREY LANCE and that hasn’t worked out so well.  We wonder about the future for Colts QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON.

Browning looks like an accountant, but he can be feisty:

THEY NEVER SHOULDA CUT ME!

–Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning, screaming on the field after the Bengals beat Browning’s former team, Minnesota, in overtime Saturday in Cincinnati.

CLEVELAND

This from Andrew Siciliano after the Browns comeback win:

@AndrewSiciliano

Browns had lost their last 49 games when down 10 entering the 4th quarter.

Browns last win after trailing by 10+ entering the 4th was the Brian Hoyer comeback in Tennessee (Week 5, 2014).

(via @NFLResearch)

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com makes the case for Kevin Stefanski as Coach of the Year:

Kevin Stefanski should be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year

Stefanski’s Browns improved to 9-5 on Sunday when they held on against those feisty Bears. They got a little bit lucky, sure, when the Hail Mary pass rolled off the chest of Darnell Mooney in the end zone. But a win is a win, and the Browns have nine of them in spite of starting four different quarterbacks this season. Stefanski’s bunch has weathered season-ending injuries to running back Nick Chubb, quarterback Deshaun Watson, their two starting offensive tackles and one of their replacements — and that’s just on the offensive side of the ball.

In spite of all of that, Cleveland currently occupies the No. 5 spot in the AFC playoff field with four games to go. They have the same record as the Chiefs, for goodness’ sake!

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Oh, there are plenty of candidates, don’t get me wrong. In no particular order, you could make a case for the Colts’ Shane Steichen, the Texans’ DeMeco Ryans, the Lions’ Dan Campbell, the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy, the Bengals’ Zac Taylor, the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel … I’m not going to list all of them, and I’m sure some people will be upset with me for omitting their guy, but you get the picture. It’s a crowded race.

This award tends to go to the coach of a team that exceeds its preseason expectations. That may make Ryans or Steichen the leading candidates. But if you believe that shouldn’t be the main criterion for the award, and you assess the way in which the coaches manage their teams through the difficulties that the season presents, you have to tip your cap to the way Stefanski has held things together in Cleveland. Right now, he’s winning with Joe Flacco at quarterback … in the year 2023. Think about that.

INDIANAPOLIS

Cincinnati has muddled through the loss of QB JOE BURROW and other injures as a testament to Coach Zac Taylor.

We note that the Texans have a winning record despite a whole slew of injuries.

How about Cleveland, winning with QB JOE FLACCO off the street.

So it can be done.

Add the Colts to that list:

Shane Steichen, head coach, Indianapolis. The Colts won a game with huge playoff implications Saturday without their number one QB, number one RB, and missing their backup running back and top wideout for much of the game. It’s clear Jim Irsay and Chris Ballard made the right choice in turning over the franchise to Steichen 11 months ago. The Colts, after an early season-ending injury to rookie franchise QB Anthony Richardson, are a surprising 8-6 with a good chance to make the playoffs with Gardner Minshew running the show under center. The Colts are averaging 24.6 points per game—nearly two points more than Kansas City—and they’re 5-1 since Halloween after the 17-point rout of the fading Steelers Saturday. Steichen’s been an excellent offensive architect without his number one QB and RB.

– – –

The DB sometimes thinks QBs GARDNER MINSHEW II and BAKER MAYFIELD are the same guy.  Dan Graziano puts them together here:

Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew will be Week 1 starting QBs somewhere next season

Minshew was 18-for-28 for 215 yards and three touchdown passes Saturday in the Colts’ comeback victory over the Steelers. The Colts lost their first three games with Minshew starting after Anthony Richardson went out with a season-ending shoulder injury. But since then, they have won five of six to improve to 8-6 and have a real shot at the playoffs. Minshew has thrown six touchdown passes and just one interception in his past three games.

Mayfield, meanwhile, threw for 381 yards and four touchdown passes Sunday in the Buccaneers’ victory in Green Bay. Per ESPN Stats & Information, he became the first visiting quarterback to throw four TD passes and complete 75% of his passes at Lambeau Field ever, including the playoffs. He has seven touchdown passes and one interception during the Bucs’ current three-game winning streak, and Tampa Bay is back to .500 for the season and in first place in the underwhelming NFC South. Thought by many to be a bridge quarterback in a rebuilding Bucs season, Mayfield has played well enough to once again resuscitate his career and present himself as a legitimate option — for the Bucs or someone else — in 2024 and beyond.

Both quarterbacks will be free agents after the season.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Bucs could absolutely decide to stick with Mayfield for a while if they don’t find their long-term answer in the draft. The Colts plan to have Richardson back, and Minshew could opt to stay with Indianapolis to fill the role he expected to fill this season after they drafted Richardson — backing him up. But he’d surely like an opportunity to at least compete for a starting role somewhere.

And once the draft and free agent music stops, teams will be looking for chairs. Minshew has spent the bulk of this season proving he can start and win games in the NFL over the course of a season. There absolutely could be a team that decides he is to them what we thought Mayfield was going to be for this year’s Bucs.

JACKSONVILLE

QB TREVOR LAWRENCE has proceeded directly from defeat to the concussion protocol.  Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com on that and the muddled end of the first half:

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was placed into the concussion protocol after Sunday night’s 23-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens at EverBank Stadium.

Head coach Doug Pederson said Lawrence was hurt on one of his three scrambles on the Jaguars’ final possession but was unsure which one. This puts his status for Sunday’s critical game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in jeopardy. The Jaguars, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are tied atop the AFC South at 8-6.

Lawrence has started every game since he was drafted first overall in 2021, a streak of 48 consecutive starts. C.J. Beathard would start if Lawrence is unable to play against the Bucs. The Jaguars cut third quarterback Nathan Rourke on Saturday and likely would attempt to re-sign him early this week.

Lawrence completed 25 of 43 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens but also lost two fumbles that the Ravens turned into 10 points. He also allowed time to run out at the end of the first half with the Jaguars inside the Baltimore 5-yard line.

The Jaguars got down to the 5-yard line on Lawrence’s 36-yard completion to receiver Zay Jones, and Pederson said the offense was supposed to run a play instead of spiking the ball to stop the clock. The Jaguars snapped the ball with 11 seconds remaining and Lawrence threw a quick pass to receiver Parker Washington near the numbers, but Ravens safety Marcus Williams tackled Washington in bounds and the clock ran out before the Jaguars could get lined up to snap the ball.

“We’re going to stay aggressive,” Pederson said. “We’ve scored before in those situations. It was just a mistake by Trevor, obviously knowing the situation and knowing how much time is left right there. It’s a great learning experience for us from the standpoint of don’t throw it inbounds to be tackled in that situation.

“We’ll learn from that one, but just another great opportunity for us to try to get in the end zone.”

When asked if Lawrence should be beyond making that kind of mistake in his third season, Pederson responded, “You can put it on us, too. Put it on us as coaches. Coach that situation a little bit better.”

TENNESSEE

A thoughtful RB DERRICK HENRY after the overtime loss to the Texans.  Turron Davenport of ESPN.com:

Tennessee running back Derrick Henry said he is pondering his future after a frustrating 19-16 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday that officially eliminated the Titans from playoff contention.

“Yeah, definitely today you had that feeling [that it could be the end of my career with the Titans],” said Henry, who is normally one to stay in the moment. “I had hope of kind of slipping in there [the playoffs], and then being eliminated with three games left. I’ve been here my whole career. Definitely wanted to go out strong, which that isn’t the case.”

The Titans will make a decision regarding the 29-year-old Henry, who is set to become a free agent after the four-year, $50 million contract he signed in 2020 runs out after this season.

Tennessee is projected to have $91.8 million in cap space this offseason, so signing Henry is a possibility. However, rookie Tyjae Spears’ 410 snaps are just one fewer than Henry this season.

Henry’s performance Sunday was his worst as a starter — just 9 yards on 16 carries. He entered the game averaging 203.6 rushing yards in his past five games against Houston.

“We weren’t great today as a whole,” Henry said. “They were the better team today. The credit goes to them. It seemed like they had an answer for everything.”

In 14 games this season, Henry has 214 carries for 875 yards and 10 touchdowns. His 9,210 career rushing yards are the second most in Oilers/Titans history behind Eddie George, and his 88 career rushing touchdowns are No. 1 in franchise history.

The Titans have a home game against the Seattle Seahawks next week followed by a trip to Houston before wrapping up the season at home vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

“I’ll try to give it my all in these last three games and leave it all on the field,” Henry said.

BUFFALO

After the Bills dismantled the out-of-their-element Cowboys, Peter King with the conventional wisdom:

The Bills might not win the AFC East. But just imagine the AFC division winner that draws Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs. This is a top five team in football right now.

Doesn’t mean it’s wrong, just because a lot of people are saying it.

And – as we mentioned above – the Bills are still very much alive to be AFC East champions and get a home game.

The NY Times computer model has Buffalo at 42% to win the division:

Playoffs   Div       SB win

Dolphins          10-4            98%        58%      5%

Bills                    8-6            71%        42%      8%

In fact, at 8% the Times computer has the Bills tied for 3^rd on the Super Bowl winners list, ahead of the Dolphins

Chances To Win Super Bowl

49ers              39%

Ravens            22%

Chiefs             8%

Bills               8%

Cowboys         7%

Dolphins          5%

Lions                4%

Eagles             3%

The Eagles down to 3%!

NEW ENGLAND

It may just be speculation, but it sounds like CB JAYCEE JACKSON had a mental health issue sometime with less than 90 minutes before kickoff on Sunday – adding to his legend for unreliability.  Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

New England Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson is dealing with mental health issues, his agent Neil Schwartz told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Sunday after Jackson was active for the team’s 27-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs but did not play and wasn’t spotted on the sidelines.

Jackson’s status was the first topic coach Bill Belichick was asked about after the game.

Belichick simply said Jackson wasn’t available. When asked why Jackson was on the game-day roster if he wasn’t available, Belichick responded: “He wasn’t available. Just leave it at that.”

One Patriots player expressed concern for Jackson in the locker room after the game but was unsure of the circumstances that led to Jackson not playing. Jackson’s absence led to undrafted rookie Alex Austin starting in his place.

“I found out right when the game started that my number was called,” Austin said. “It was a surprise.”

Teams are required to declare their inactive players 90 minutes before kickoff, and at that point, the Patriots were planning on Jackson being ready for kickoff at 1 p.m. ET. As a result, they declared third-year cornerback Shaun Wade inactive.

But with Jackson suddenly unavailable, and Wade inactive, the Patriots were shorthanded at cornerback against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who finished 27-of-37 for 305 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Veteran Jonathan Jones, Austin and slot Myles Bryant were the only cornerbacks left on the game-day roster, and at one point Jones departed with a knee injury before returning.

Belichick compared Jackson’s absence to a situation when a backup is thrust into action due to injury.

“We all know that when a game starts, anything can happen. [This] happened a little bit before that,” he said. “[Austin] was ready to play, expected to play [and] played a lot. It’s everybody’s job to be ready to go.”

Jackson, 28, was acquired from the Los Angeles Chargers in a trade on Oct. 5. He had fallen out of favor in Los Angeles after signing a five-year, $82.5 million deal in March of 2022 and said returning to New England – where he began his career from 2018-2021 – felt like coming home for him.

NEW YORK JETS

QB AARON RODGERS may be on the verge of returning, but after being annihilated by the Dolphins, he won’t be leading a late playoff run.  Longtime Jets scribe Rich Cimini writes like a man who has seen this kind of thing from Gang Green before:

A New York Jets season that began with so much Aaron Rodgers-inspired hope and hype hit rock bottom Sunday, the way so many others have.

A blowout loss to a divisional foe. Playoff elimination. A mess at the quarterback position.

The Jets, 30-0 losers to the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, continued the longest active playoff drought among the four major sports leagues. They were mathematically eliminated for the 13th straight year after what cornerback D.J. Reed described as a “good, old ass whooping.”

It was an embarrassing performance in which the Jets were outgained, 290-103. It was so lopsided that wide receiver Allen Lazard offered this blunt assessment of the debacle: “They outschemed us and they out-efforted us.”

No one had it worse than quarterback Zach Wilson, who was sacked on four of 15 dropbacks and left with a concussion late in the second quarter. He was replaced by Trevor Siemian, who will become the Jets’ fourth different starter if Wilson isn’t out of the concussion protocol by next Sunday’s game against the Washington Commanders. The Jets haven’t started four quarterbacks in the same season since 1989.

At 5-9, the Jets clinched their eighth straight losing season — currently, the NFL’s longest slump — and it seemingly eliminates the possibility of Rodgers making a miracle return to the field after Sept. 13 Achilles surgery. Rodgers, 40, could be medically cleared this week, but has said on numerous occasions that it wouldn’t make sense to play if there are no playoff implications.

So, in a span of three hours, the Jets got one quarterback concussed and destroyed the comeback dream of another. Coach Robert Saleh, whose record dropped to 16-32 (including 2-13 in December/January), declined to speculate on Rodgers’ chances of playing again this season.

Before the season, the Jets fancied themselves as Super Bowl contenders, but their world was rocked on the fourth play, when Rodgers ruptured his left Achilles. They couldn’t even hold on long enough to give Rodgers a shot to make a heroic return.

“It’s disappointing, starting with the first series of the year until now,” said Saleh, commenting on the playoff miss. “It’s been a constant battle.”

Cornerback Sauce Gardner admitted the team squandered an opportunity to maybe get Rodgers back for the stretch run.

“Our job is to keep winning and if us winning would’ve brought him back, then, yes, [we let him down],” he said. “But that’s not something that’s on everybody’s mind. At the end of the day, we just want to win.”

This was a total meltdown from the beginning. The Jets were outgained in the first half, 197-4. Just like it was for Rodgers in Week 1, it was the fourth play that led to their demise. This time, Wilson suffered a strip sack deep in his own territory, setting up the Dolphins at the 1-yard line. A touchdown soon followed, and that pretty much ended the game for the Jets.

Wilson (4-of-11, 26 yards) was examined for a concussion early in the game by the independent neurologist, but he was cleared to return. Eventually, after several hits, he was pulled near the end of the first half. It was 24-0 when Siemian entered with 1:03 on the clock.

“It’s definitely not fun to look at,” Reed said, referring to the pounding Wilson absorbed. “You want to see your offense having fun, moving the chains. It’s pretty tough to watch.”

THIS AND THAT

INTERNATIONAL NO VOTE

Here is why the Bears voted no, the lone no, on expanded international scheduling.  It had to do with protecting the best home games.  Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com:

The NFL is continuing its global push by expanding its international game sampling from four to eight games beginning in 2025 after voting upon it at Wednesday’s league meetings. The measure didn’t pass with unanimity, but it did go through with a good laugh.

The lone “no” vote, according to sources, came from the Chicago Bears. George McCaskey, the chairman of the Bears, issued the one dissenting vote. Not because the Bears don’t want to leave the country, mind you, but because of some of the fine print.

In previous years, the league has allowed teams to protect four home games from being selected to go internationally. With the new measure voted upon Wednesday, those protections were cut in half to two. The point being that higher quality games could be selected to go out of the country.

McCaskey spoke up in the meeting on this topic. According to sources, he told membership that fans will want to see some of the best quarterbacks come to town, and he wanted to preserve the right to host those games.

“We have generational talents coming in,” McCaskey said, according to a source in the room. “Fans want to see Patrick Mahomes coming in. They want to see Josh Allen coming in. They want to see Jalen Hurts coming in. They want to see Tommy DeVito coming in.”

The room burst into laughter.

“It was the best line of the entire meeting,” one source in the meeting said, adding it was a good-natured and well-received quip.

WHALES AND MINNOWS

Peter King thinks the NFL is too focused on “minnow” penalties.

Zebra update. The offensive offside call Saturday night on Denver right guard Quinn Meinerz at the Detroit one-foot line was offensive. The call was nonsensical. It negated a Broncos touchdown that would have made it an 14-point Detroit lead with 16 minutes left in the game. But instead of putting all the blame on the fourth-year official who made the call, down judge Frank LeBlanc, let’s give a good deal of the blame to the league office and senior VP of officiating Walt Anderson for so emphasizing the cleanliness of the line of scrimmage that he’s spooked his officiating roster and forced people like Frank LeBlanc to over-officiate what’s already an impossible game to call consistently.

In trying to get a handle on the Tush Push play—which has seen players from both lines crowd the line of scrimmage so much that violations could be called on virtually every QB-sneak try now—the league has created a dangerous cocktail. The league office hates this play but very likely won’t outlaw it because it’s not causing injury and would seem to be unfairly picking on the team that has virtually perfected it, Philadelphia. Instead the league has leaned on the line-of-scrimmage adjudicators, the down judges, to call this penalty no one had heard of a month ago, offensive offside, in an attempt to gut down on the mayhem at the line pre-snap on the Tush Push. So, instead of calling obvious plays (such as the Kadarius Toney offside eight days ago), officials are now staring intently trying to see if even the helmet of a player is shading the back end of the football at the line. That should never be the intent of this call.

So instead of Denver being down 28-14 as it should have been, the Broncos were down 18. The outcome almost certainly wasn’t affected, but that’s not the point. The point is, officials have too much to worry about in an increasingly microscopically watched profession than to be over-warned about flagging offensive offside.

I remember when I did my week-in-the-life-of-an-officiating-crew story 10 years ago listening to ref Gene Steratore talking to his crew at their Saturday meeting. “Remember,” Steratore told his crew, “we fish for whales. We don’t fish for minnows.” Fishing for minnows is hurting this profession right now.

2024 COACHING MARKET

Informed speculation from veteran scribe Mike Sando of The Athletic:

The NFL head-coach hiring season is hitting stride early.

The Las Vegas Raiders moved first, firing Josh McDaniels on Halloween. The Carolina Panthers followed by firing Frank Reich a few weeks later. When the Los Angeles Chargers dismissed Brandon Staley late last week, the league climbed within two of its total number of openings last offseason, signaling this could be a big year for change.

The Pick Six column begins by analyzing those three openings and nine other situations where change could be on the way, from teams with obviously imperiled coaches to others where the coaches in question might one day have busts at the Pro Football Hall of Fame (a common thread ties together New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle).

1. The Panthers, Raiders and Chargers are already looking for new head coaches. Here’s what I see when widening the focus to the full landscape.

Comfort seekers: Chargers and Raiders

• Chargers: The franchise has resisted parting with money and power when hiring head coaches, which is why Brandon Staley, Anthony Lynn and Mike McCoy were the past three coaches. None possessed the gravitas to change how the Chargers operate fundamentally. That empowered team president John Spanos, son of owner Dean Spanos.

As colleague Randy Mueller and I have discussed on The Football GM podcast, this franchise has embraced its second-class status in Los Angeles, bypassing a chance to hire Sean Payton and generally turning away from asking the difficult questions.

The question now is whether the team’s recent struggles, punctuated by a 63-21 defeat to the Raiders last week, will motivate the organization to truly “reimagine” how it builds a “championship-caliber” operation, as Dean Spanos promised.

While turning over football operations to Bill Belichick would go against the Chargers’ established ways, working out a deal with the Patriots could include New England paying much of the coach’s salary. The Chargers would not have to hire a traditional GM, which would also save them money.

“The one thing that could knock them out of their norm is, are they very sensitive to the reputation that they are unwilling to pay?” an exec said. “Belichick is a complete departure in terms of how the organization has been run. It makes sense for him because he could go compete very quickly and make a run at (Don) Shula’s record.”

• Raiders: Unlike the Chargers, the Raiders have been willing to take expensive swings on fully empowered head coaches. Owner Mark Davis went all-in with Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels. He had chased Gruden for years. Once Gruden was fired following the emergence of racist emails, Davis thought McDaniels’ offensive pedigree could fill the void. He had to have McDaniels and got him partly by letting McDaniels choose his own GM.

Davis sounds more likely to seek comfort than disruption the next time around, having recently said he’s hopeful interim coach Antonio Pierce and interim GM Champ Kelly keep their jobs.

It could mean nothing, but Davis’ history of listening to players, though problematic in the bigger picture, could improve the outlook for Pierce, a former Pro Bowl linebacker who seems popular in the locker room.

“Pierce could get that job because there isn’t a lead guy you want to hire, and everyone tells Mark Davis he messed up by not keeping (previous interim coach) Rich Bisaccia,” a former NFL head coach said.

How Davis feels after blowing out the floundering Chargers could differ from how will feel after upcoming games against Kansas City, Indianapolis and Denver.

“If they were to beat Denver, then I think it becomes a possibility,” an exec said. “You would have beaten two teams in your division. Davis will go to the players, if that is what he is doing now, and if whoever is advising him likes Antonio Pierce …”

Follow the analytics: Commanders and Panthers

• Commanders: In a testament to the Commanders’ organizational futility, Ron Rivera’s 26-37-1 record (.414) with Washington ranks second to Joe Gibbs’ 2004-07 stint (.477) among the final seven hires former owner Dan Snyder made. New owner Josh Harris will almost surely aim higher in the next month or so.

Quite a few people in the NFL see Washington as a logical destination for Belichick as the organization restores its standing following the Daniel Snyder ownership error.

“Who would give him this massive contract?” one coach asked. “Who would give him massive control? It would be a new owner who had a lot of money. Bill would show these guys how to be an owner. He would give these owners some respect in the ownership circle.”

That might or might not be how Harris proceeds. Like Carolina’s David Tepper, Harris is known to embrace analytics. His in-season hiring of Eugene Shen as senior vice president of football strategy speaks to that emphasis. Belichick has mocked analytics while leaning toward tradition on in-game decision-making. He’s also arguably the greatest coach in NFL history.

“The owner has kept very quiet,” an exec said of Harris. “You hear maybe a president of football operations with an Ivy League or analytics background.”

• Panthers: Carolina seems likely to seek another offensive-minded head coach, which could allow the Panthers to keep defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. The question here is to what extent Tepper’s reputation for meddling might steer leading candidates toward other opportunities.

“I don’t know if Tepper is a quick learner, but we know he is a quick decision-maker,” an exec said. “Does he go, ‘Alright, I need to give this up and give it all to Bill Belichick?’”

NFC South also-rans: Saints, Falcons and/or Buccaneers

Every team in the NFC South entered this season liking its chances of winning such a weak division. The Panthers fell short and fired their coach after 11 games. There could be consequences for whichever of the remaining three teams fall short, depending upon what expectations were set forth by ownership.

• Falcons: Losing 9-7 at Carolina shined an even brighter light on coach Arthur Smith, whose offense ranks 25th in EPA per play and is producing 7.1 fewer EPA per game than last season, the seventh-largest drop from 2022, per TruMedia.

“Some of it could come down to who picked the quarterback and whether somebody was really, really firm on (Desmond) Ridder, or was it, ‘Hey, we’ll give this a year and see how it plays out, instead of paying Derek Carr,’” an exec said.

• Saints: Beating the Giants got the Saints to 7-7, but how they finish against the Rams, Buccaneers and Falcons could be pivotal. Ownership sought continuity by holding onto Sean Payton’s staff and promoting Dennis Allen after Payton left the team, but the results have been underwhelming.

“Part of that variable is, ‘OK, when are we going to reset the cap instead of continuing to push out?’” an exec said. “They have done an amazing job pushing it out, but do they want to continue to do that to be a middle-of-the-road team?”

• Buccaneers: Todd Bowles inherited predecessor Bruce Arians’ staff and didn’t get to put much of an imprint on the team until this season.

Unlike their division rivals, the Buccaneers have already exceeded their preseason Vegas win total (6.5). Beating Green Bay 34-20 at Lambeau Field extended their winning streak to three. With Baker Mayfield ranking 12th in EPA per pass play, three spots higher than Tom Brady ranked last season, what more could ownership expect?

Draft order watch: Bears

• Bears: Coach Matt Eberflus took over the defense early in the season and turned it around. Chicago ranks fourth in defensive EPA per play since Week 5. But with the Bears holding Carolina’s first-round pick, which currently would be No. 1 in the order, the team could be in position to draft a franchise quarterback. In that case, would the Bears want to pair a new quarterback with an offensive-minded head coach?

Air traffic control-mandated holding pattern: Jets

• Jets: Losing 30-0 at Miami did not help Robert Saleh, but if the Jets are going to run it back with Aaron Rodgers next season, are they really going to replace their coaching staff?

“I think they ride the Rodgers train another year,” an exec said.

Expiration dates could be nearing: Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks

The coaches for these teams will or could be headed for the Hall of Fame eventually, but their teams have stagnated. Deep playoff runs are becoming distant memories, and there’s growing skepticism over whether that is going to change anytime soon. While most expect Belichick to leave New England, Tomlin and Carroll could be more vulnerable a year from now.

• Patriots: When a highly successful coach stays in one place for a long time, his staff tends to atrophy as competitors hire away top assistants, and as other assistants retire. The older head coach might resist hiring outsiders with their own ideas. He also might resist training outsiders to learn exactly how the coach wants things done.

Variations of this have played out in New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle, in my view.

As for Belichick, he remains under contract through 2024, but coaches and execs throughout the league expect his New England tenure to end after this season, one way or another.

• Steelers: Tomlin’s future could rest on whether he can hire the right offensive coordinator after failing to win a playoff game under his previous two.

Nine of the 12 teams listed here have defensive-minded head coaches. Five of those nine hired new offensive coordinators last offseason: Belichick, Staley, Saleh, Rivera and Bowles, with mixed results. Where is Tomlin going to find a differentiating offensive play caller when so many teams could be scrambling for offensive-minded head coaches?

“Who are the offensive coordinators of the future?” an exec asked. “If there are 10 openings for head coaches, who the hell is filling these positions? It is not all offensive gurus. There are just not enough.”

• Seahawks: Pete Carroll won the Russell Wilson trade but can’t live off that any longer. His team hasn’t reached a championship game since the 2014 season, and his defense keeps getting worse, while NFC West competitors Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay keep fielding top offenses.

A Seattle team that once derived its identity from a dominant defense and a physical ground game now has no identity at all. That’s troubling for a coach who has made multiple coordinator changes already. Four consecutive defeats raise questions about the future. Former Seattle assistant Dan Quinn would make sense as a successor if there were to be a change.