| If The Season Ended Today in the NFC: NFC W-L Conf Last Week %Detroit North 14-2 10-1 1 (1st or 5th seed)Philadelphia East 13-3 8-3 2 (2nd seed)LA Rams West 10-6 6-5 3 (3rd or 4th seed)Tampa Bay South 9-7 7-4 4 89 (+31%)Minnesota WC1 14-2 9-2 WC1 (1st or 5th seed)Washington WC2 10-5 7-3 WC3 (6th or 7th seed)Green Bay WC3 11-5 5-4 WC2 (6th or 7th seed)Atlanta South 8-8 7-4 4 11 (-37%) Minnesota – Detroit winner is first seed with bye and home field advantage throughout. Loser has a tough game at Tampa Bay or the Rams. Washington has jumped to the 6th seed and if they win at Dallas, they will open the playoffs at the Rams or Buccaneers. Green Bay might be the team that goes to Philadelphia, unless the Packers win and Commanders lose. |
| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITMichael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com with a nugget to add to OC Ben Johnson’s already glowing resume: As the Lions’ injury-ravaged defense is just trying to find enough healthy bodies to put on the field, their offense is accomplishing unprecedented feats. In the Lions’ 40-34 win over the 49ers on Monday night, they had no turnovers. That made it the fifth time this season that they’ve scored at least 40 points and had zero turnovers. That’s unprecedented in NFL history. The Lions also had no turnovers in their 52-6 win over the Jaguars, their 52-14 win over the Titans, their 47-9 win over the Cowboys and their 42-29 win over the Seahawks. Only two other teams in NFL history have even scored 40 points with no turnovers four times in a season: The 2019 Ravens and this year’s Bills, who did it against the Lions in addition to doing it in three other games. The reality for the Lions is that their offense may need to keep playing at that level if they’re going to reach their first Super Bowl in franchise history. With injuries on the defense like Detroit has, near perfection on offense has to be the standard. |
| GREEN BAYJeff Howe of The Athletic gets mostly positive responses to the question as to whether QB JORDAN LOVE has validated his huge contract: The Green Bay Packers’ proactive approach with Jordan Love’s contract has been paying off. Love landed a four-year, $220 million extension in July despite having just 18 career starts on his docket. At $55 million in average annual value, Love was tied with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence for the most lucrative contract in history when the ink dried. Love has since delivered a 63.2 completion percentage, 3,320 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 14 starts, missing two games in September with a sprained MCL. The Packers are back in the playoffs for the second consecutive season under Love’s watch. And despite a frustrating loss Sunday to the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers appear more than capable of making noise in the postseason, largely because of how Love has performed. “I’m impressed,” said a defensive coach who has prepared for Love this season. “He’s had to work really hard at his game, from a fundamental standpoint, to become a consistent player. I appreciate that about him — how much he’s improved fundamentally, playing with a base, playing with rhythm and timing because he’s naturally the opposite, very loose and springy as a player, which can be spectacular or catastrophic. He’s evened a lot of that out.” Love was a complicated evaluation before the 2020 NFL Draft because of the concerns over some of those inconsistent habits. But the Packers drafted him in the first round and gave him a few years to sit behind Aaron Rodgers before handing Love the keys. Not just that, but Love took over a team that required a diligent rebuild through the draft because of the cap ramifications of the Rodgers trade, and he still instantly delivered. And yet, the Packers would have been justified if they took a more cautious approach with Love’s contract. He understandably had a shaky start in 2023 before lighting it up down the stretch and into the playoffs. There was a valid argument to be made that the Packers could have waited to see more as Love played out the remainder of his previous contract in 2024, but they proved prescient with his projection. “They handled him perfectly,” a rival team executive said. “He had the physical talent coming out but was not ready, and they were patient with him, allowed him to learn from one of the smartest QBs and grow at his pace. He is definitely in the upper third (of all starting QBs) at this point and getting better.” Love has been the sixth-ranked quarterback for the past six weeks, and he’s been in the top nine since Week 5. He’s done a tremendous job of curbing the interceptions that plagued him early in the season, throwing at least one in his first eight starts but none over his last six outings. “He seems to be progressing well,” an offensive coach said. “He seems to follow this same pattern every year with starting slow and then turning it on. I would just want more consistency from him with that contract, but certainly playing well as of late.” To think, if the Packers had waited to pay Love until after the season, the price would have skyrocketed. He’d have all the leverage, with the Packers likely using the franchise tag to prevent him from hitting free agency. And the Dallas Cowboys have since given Dak Prescott a four-year, $240 million deal to shatter the record for average annual value. It’s not a stretch to think Love could have gotten something like a five-year, $310 million pact to reset the record. The 26-year-old still has plenty of room to grow, too. He’ll improve his consistency with added experience, as will the young group of receivers and tight ends around him. Head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense has proved to be QB-friendly, so there’s plenty of evidence to believe they’ll be on the rise for the foreseeable future. “I think the two things that really give him a chance are, one, he is a leader,” the defensive coach said. “He’s very composed. You can tell he’s one of the guys, coachable and accountable, and their offensive group plays hard for him. And two, he can create and make the checkmate throws that you need on all the big downs, third down, red zone and two-minute. “He still needs to prove he can play consistent football and eliminate the turnovers against the best people in the biggest games, but he’s definitely validated the contract.” |
| NFC EAST |
| PHILADELPHIACoach Nick Sirianni wants input on giving RB SAQUON BARKLEY a chance for history. Tim McManus of ESPN.com: Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t decided whether he’ll let Saquon Barkley attempt to break the NFL’s single-season rushing record Sunday, but he says he’ll talk to everyone in the organization, including owner Jeffrey Lurie, before making that call. Barkley needs 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s NFL record of 2,105 yards, set in 1984, but the Eagles (13-3) have clinched the NFC East division title and are locked into the NFC’s No. 2 seed. That makes Sunday’s game against the New York Giants a prime chance for Sirianni to rest his starters in anticipation of the Eagles’ wild-card playoff game the following week. “I’ll talk to our staff, I’ll talk to the players, I’ll talk to [general manager] Howie [Roseman], I’ll talk to Mr. Lurie. I’ll talk to everybody to try and make sure I’m making the best decision for the football team,” Sirianni said Tuesday during his weekly interview with 94WIP radio in Philadelphia. Sirianni said the question he asks himself is, “What’s the best thing for the team, and then also, what’s the best things for the individuals going for the record?” Sirianni’s next media availability will be Wednesday where it’s possible he will announce his decision on the playing status for Barkley and the Eagles’ other starters. Although he hasn’t yet made any decisions, he did point out that he played wide receiver DeVonta Smith in the 2021 season finale so he could break DeSean Jackson’s franchise rookie receiving yards record but rested other players. Smith caught three passes for 41 yards in the finale against the Dallas Cowboys to finish with 916 yards on the season and the rookie record. “If you think back a couple of years ago to 2021, Smitty was going for the rookie receiver record. Everybody else was resting, but we wanted for everyone else — whatever it was — we didn’t play some other guys in that game, but we went and got him that record,” Sirianni said. “Every situation is a little different. Not saying one way or the other or how that’s going to play out or even that I made a decision yet.” On Sunday, after becoming just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season, Barkley said he’ll be fine with whatever Sirianni decides. “Whatever his decision is, I’m all for it,” Barkley said. “If his mindset is, we’ll go out there and try it, I’ll go out there and try it. If his mindset is, let’s rest and get ready for this run, I’m all for that, too … I came here to do something special. Breaking a record is special, but I want a banner up there. I think we all do.” |
| NFC SOUTH |
| TAMPA BAYQB BAKER MAYFIELD is again the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Buccaneers will be the NFC North champs if they beat the Saints in Week 18 and quarterback Baker Mayfield’s play last Sunday is a big reason why they’re in that position. Mayfield threw a touchdown pass to end the first Bucs possession against the Panthers and he went on to throw four more of them over the course of their 48-14 win. It was the second time that Mayfield threw five touchdown passes in a game and he finished the day 27-of-32 for 359 yards. The NFL announced on Tuesday that he’s been named the NFC offensive player of the week in recognition of that performance. He took the same prize after throwing four touchdowns in a Week 15 win over the Chargers and he’s won the weekly award six times in his career. Mayfield threw 15 TD passes in 5 December games. His average line in December – 24-33 (73%), 296 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. Even with the pesky 6 INTs, his passer rating for the month was 115.4. |
| NFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSJeff Howe of The Athletic with thoughts on QB MATTHEW STAFFORD as the 2024 regular season comes to an end: It hasn’t been as smooth of late, but Matthew Stafford’s midseason hot streak got the Los Angeles Rams out of a 1-4 hole and into the playoffs. Stafford, 36, was on fire during their 44-42 victory against the Buffalo Bills, and he was making several elite throws per game during that stretch. And even though the numbers haven’t been great of late — three consecutive games with fewer than 200 passing yards — his turnover-worthy throws are way down. He had seven interceptions in his first nine games, including one pick in six consecutive games, but he has tossed only one in his past seven outings. Stafford is largely why the Rams have won five in a row and nine of 11. His command of coach Sean McVay’s offense has always been a valuable asset, including run checks, and Stafford has strengthened his connection with wideout Puka Nacua. It’s worth mentioning Stafford has done it all while star receiver Cooper Kupp has lost a step and the offensive line has dealt with numerous injuries. “He is absolutely the reason for their success,” a defensive coach said. “He’s such a special player and leader.” The NFC West champs will need Stafford to be at his best to win against a tough group of conference foes in the playoffs. |
| SAN FRANCISCOA boom or bust Monday night for QB BROCK PURDY ended with an elbow injury. Grant Gordon of NFL.com: An injury-plagued season for the San Francisco 49ers continued with just a game remaining on the schedule. Niners quarterback Brock Purdy injured his right elbow with less than two minutes remaining in the team’s 40-34 loss Monday night against the Detroit Lions. Purdy said his elbow was “on fire,” and will have an MRI on Tuesday, though initial tests on his UCL were OK. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said he believes it’s some “nerve stuff” but had little detail to provide with Purdy’s status for the team’s season finale against the Arizona Cardinals uncertain. Purdy was sacked by Lions safety Brian Branch with 1:36 to play in the game and quickly trotted to the sideline. He was replaced by Joshua Dobbs, who finished the game. Purdy threw the ball a few times on the sideline but quickly shook his head to let the coaching staff know he couldn’t return and appeared emotional in the moment. It’s especially concerning because Purdy memorably tore his UCL in 2022 NFC Championship Game. Purdy went on to undergo surgery and a long offseason rehab. “You think of elbow injury from a couple years ago, but talking to doctors, he just got hit in the right spot,” Shanahan said. “Hopefully it’ll be alright.” Purdy, who’s entering the final season of his rookie contract and is projected to get a sizable extension, completed 27 of 35 passes for a season-high 377 yards, three touchdowns and two costly second-half interceptions. “It seemed like he had a pretty good night except for those two picks,” Shanahan said. Purdy missed a game earlier this season due to a shoulder injury, becoming one of a galaxy of San Francisco star players to have missed games this year. That includes Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, Trent Williams and many, many more. While the Niners have been eliminated from playoff contention, Purdy’s injury serves as more than just a symbol of the season’s doldrums, as it beckons concern for the 25-year-old entering a most pivotal offseason. We didn’t think that GM John Lynch or Coach Kyle Shanahan would be in any danger despite the losing season – and owner Jed York confirmed it. Tim Kawakami of the San Francisco Standard: Not that there was much lingering suspense about the futures of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch going into 2025, but 49ers owner Jed York ended any potential question on the matter Monday afternoon. About 90 minutes before the 49ers-Lions kickoff at Levi’s Stadium, I spoke to York in the tunnel outside the 49ers’ locker room. York was crystal-clear when I asked if Shanahan and Lynch would be back in their roles for the 2025 season. “They’re not going anywhere,” York said. I asked: So I can write that you said this? “You can write that, for sure,” York said. “They’re not going anywhere.” A smiling man is wearing a white hoodie featuring a red panel with "49ERS" on it. The background is blurred, with bright, out-of-focus lights. This wasn’t a formal interview and was conducted as Lynch and various players — including Brock Purdy — raced past. I didn’t record the conversation or take notes, other than specifically telling York that I would quote him exactly as I’ve done at the top of this column. Over the next several minutes, York generally elaborated that while nobody in the organization is happy with the results this season, and not every decision worked out, he’s not tossing out everything as a knee-jerk reaction. He noted that the injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Hargrave, and several others were devastating and that the team just couldn’t turn things around after some early losses. But York said Shanahan and Lynch have remained steady throughout this process and continue to be the best leaders for the team going into 2025. York said the 49ers still have a quality roster and believe they’re set up to be right back in contention next season. When I asked whether he expects a quick resolution Purdy’s pending negotiations — which can’t begin until after the 49ers’ regular-season finale Sunday in Arizona — York demurred, saying only that he hopes Purdy is the team’s quarterback for a long time. None of this is a surprise, of course. York went through a carousel of coaches and executives before hiring Shanahan and Lynch shortly after the 2016 season and has no desire to repeat that. He’s got his coach and general manager. Shanahan and Lynch slowly rebuilt the 49ers’ roster, then burst through in 2019, making it to that season’s Super Bowl with QB Jimmy Garoppolo and a host of young stars. They suffered an injury-ravaged season in 2020, then traded three first-round picks to move up in the 2021 draft and select Trey Lance, who failed to grab hold of the job. But they drafted Purdy with the last pick in the 2022 draft and watched him bloom into their long-term starting QB. Purdy led the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game the next January and to the Super Bowl after the 2023 season. This season, the 49ers (6-9 heading into Monday’s game) are headed to a potential top-12 draft pick and their second losing record out of the last six. Overall, the 49ers have made the playoffs four times in the eight-season Shanahan/Lynch era — but have won at least two postseason games in each of those playoff seasons. Within 49ers HQ, even as the losses have piled up, Shanahan and Lynch have remained in lockstep — and are seen chatting together before almost every practice. And, in vast contrast to the public whispering during Jim Harbaugh’s final years with the 49ers, there have been no indications, public or private, of any tension between the team’s three leaders. Also, the two men both signed contract extensions in 2023 that guarantee them money through 2026 — and probably longer. Shanahan is believed to be making about $15 million a year through 2027. But Kawakami sees other components of the team changing in 2025: Though almost everything from Day 1 of this season has felt wildly unstable and insecure for the 49ers, the biggest things really aren’t in that much flux heading into 2025. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch will almost certainly continue running the team. Brock Purdy, presuming a long-term deal landing at some point this spring, will remain the quarterback for the foreseeable future, with George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Trent Williams (if he chooses to play another season) alongside him in the offensive huddle. Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Deommodore Lenoir will still be the heart of the defense next season. But after that? Though Shanahan and Lynch are logically still focused on the remaining weeks of this season, you can feel some of what’s in the air for 2025. Obviously, they’re 6-9 and have been out of the realistic playoff race for more than a month. They’ve had some time to think about changes. They must make changes — changes by attrition, changes out of necessity, and a few key course changes for a regime that will be heading into its ninth season, still without a Super Bowl trophy. But at this later moment in this mostly successful era, the 49ers face a two-way quandary: Too much change now might diminish and possibly eliminate most of what made them good in the first place; but too little change might push everything about this era’s relevant days into the past tense. Let’s take a look at the major names and issues that need to be addressed quickly and where it seems to be headed: Nick Sorensen will likely be back as defensive coordinatorSorensen’s hold on this job has been getting stronger as the weeks have gone on and the 49ers’ defense has tightened things up. Has everything been great? Not at all, especially in the shaky first few months for the rookie DC. But lately, the 49ers’ leaders have pointed out that things looked a lot better when Dre Greenlaw made it briefly back and with Talanoa Hufanga helping run the secondary. The 49ers are now giving up an average of only 5.1 yards per play this season, which ranks fourth in the league and is comparable both to last year under Wilks (with a healthier squad) and the 2019 heyday of this defense under Robert Saleh. Sorensen, who has come up through the 49ers’ ranks, also has recently gotten the public backing from Warner and Bosa that Wilks was not getting at this time last season. Maybe even more to the point, several the 49ers’ leaders compare Sorensen now to Saleh in his early tenure as DC and to DeMeco Ryans in his first DC year. And Saleh and Ryans are beloved inside 49ers HQ. Is assistant head coach Brandon Staley an option for next season? I haven’t heard anything like that all season. Could Shanahan try to hire Saleh back now that he’s unemployed? My sense is that neither man seems entirely primed for a redo. Could Shanahan check back with Jeff Ulbrich, his first DC choice last off-season before the Jets blocked the lateral move? Maybe. There could be other options, too. But my sense is that Shanahan and Lynch feel that Sorensen grew on the job this season and will only get better into the future. Jake Moody is not likely to be the kicker in 2025Moody’s scholarship, which started when the 49ers stunningly drafted him in the third round in 2023, should expire once the 49ers pack things up from Glendale, Ariz., after their regular-season finale, and that might be it for him as the 49ers’ kicker. Maybe Moody will turn into a very good NFL kicker in the future — on another team. The 49ers used a third-round pick on him last year because he’s an immense talent. He’s one of the best practice kickers I’ve ever seen. But in games over these two seasons, Moody’s been the definition of unreliable. Though Shanahan gave him another vote of confidence on Thursday, I just don’t see how Shanahan can keep sending him out there for pressure kicks in 2025. Deebo Samuel’s sideline eruption after Moody’s three misses in Tampa Bay earlier this season wasn’t pretty — but it also was a sign of growing team-wide frustration in Moody. And that certainly hasn’t gone away. There was the 41-yard miss on Sunday in Miami, which seemed to push Shanahan to the brink after he’s been relentlessly positive about Moody for most of two years. Moody is now 9 for 16 on field-goal tries from 40 yards and longer this season, well below average among quality NFL kickers. In comparison, when Moody was sidelined with an ankle injury, the 49ers watched two replacements, Anders Carlson and Matthew Wright, combine to go 5 for 5 from 40-plus. I’ve been generally skeptical of Moody since he started missing kicks in the 2023 preseason, but what really stuck out for me were the two shanked kickoffs in the Bears game last month — they didn’t travel past the Chicago 20-yard line in the air, which meant that the Bears automatically got the ball at the 40. Good kickers don’t do that. Even mediocre kickers don’t do that. Two of them! One of those short drives resulted in the Bear’s first TD. Against a competent opponent, that really might’ve mattered. At the least, the 49ers need to bring some veterans in and stage a kicking contest in the spring and maybe into training camp next season. But Moody is great in those camps. He only starts messing up in games. So I’m not sure the 49ers should make this about a camp competition. I think they should release Moody after the season and start anew at this position. But it sounds like Shanahan and Lynch won’t do that. I think it’s delaying the inevitable. More special teams reckoningsIt’s not all coach Brian Schneider’s fault. The players assigned to the special teams have responsibility for all the mistakes, turnovers, failed assignments, and yardage lost to terrible coverage and terrible returns this season. Shanahan has responsibility, too, because he clearly doesn’t care about special teams and it shows. But like with Moody, I don’t know how Shanahan can look his locker-room leaders in the eyes and tell them he’s keep Schneider on staff after everything that’s happened this season. Another big adjustment that likely needs to happen: Shanahan has to try to pretend he cares a little bit about the personnel and strategies on special teams. He has to ask more of them than just not screw up his offense and defense. Could he — dare I say? — get involved with scheming up a fake punt? The franchises with the best special teams play tend to be run by head coaches who love the details of the kicking game. That will never be Shanahan. But unless he starts letting his players and coaches know that he’ll be checking in on them and is supporting them, I don’t know if it matters who the special teams coach really is. Alter the way they stock the offensive lineI’ll get into this much more deeply once the season is over, but if there’s a general throughline for the 49ers’ failures this season beyond the horrible special teams, it’s that they could never run the ball consistently. Obviously, it was going to be tougher this season with McCaffrey out so much, Elijah Mitchell out the whole time, and other running back injuries. But Shanahan has put together dominant running games before without All-Pro runners. It just didn’t happen this season because the offensive line couldn’t create openings consistently. How many times early in the season did the 49ers get into the red zone and immediately watch the middle of the offensive line get blown up on a run for no yards on first-and-10 on their way to a field-goal try? Too many times. Shanahan sets up his entire game plan with the idea that his running game will establish control. It opens up the play-action game. It keeps his defense fresh. It’s everything. And after the 49ers got out-rushed 166-81 by Miami on Sunday, they’ve now been outrushed in eight games this season. For a majority of this season, the 49ers have been the lesser running team. That stat must drive Shanahan crazy. If that doesn’t change, the 49ers’ 2025 season might look a lot like 2024. Some veterans will be exiting, some will be inexpensive enough to remainIt seems that Javon Hargrave will likely be released this off-season. And Charvarius Ward likely won’t be re-signed. That’s normal attrition. There probably will be one or two more veteran departures, though maybe not as many as once presumed. The 49ers will be facing a cash crunch with the Purdy deal coming and the biggest salaries for Bosa and others coming due. Under usual circumstances, they probably would’ve had to pare down their list of high-earning stars going into next season. But what happens when most of the market for their stars is depressed by such a lousy, injury-plagued season? I think Greenlaw probably will be back on a moderate, short-term deal — to heal up, get his value back up, and remain alongside Warner. I think Hufanga might be back, too, in a similar short-term deal, though that one might get tricky because the 49ers have two young safeties who have gotten a ton of playing time this season. So what about Deebo?The 49ers designed their last contract with Samuel in a way that made it relatively easy to trade or release him this coming off-season. That was all part of the thorny negotiations back in the spring and summer of 2022. The 49ers weren’t sure his style of play would wear too well over time and Deebo wasn’t thrilled when the 49ers made that very clear. But that doesn’t mean there’s a guaranteed divorce coming in March. First of all, the 49ers are not likely getting much of anything back in a trade for Deebo. Cross that option off, unless it’s mostly a salary dump. Secondly, if they cut Deebo, the 49ers would take a $10.7 million dead-cap hit — if he’s designated as a post-June 1 release. That would save them $5.2 million in real dollars but only $5.3 million on the cap. And they wouldn’t have Deebo, who has had a poor season but remains one of Shanahan’s favorite players and showed again on Sunday that he’s capable of significant things at least once in a while. So why not just keep Deebo at his $16 million cap number rather than going through all that? Or the 49ers can even reduce that number — if Deebo is agreeable — by negotiating an extension to spread the hit into later years by guaranteeing a little bit of money past this season. If Deebo was coming off of a great season, he would never agree to a pay cut. But now, at 28, realizing where his market is, I think Deebo would listen. And I think Shanahan and Lynch would be wise to figure out how to keep him around. In 2025, Deebo might still do good things. It’s possible. But also, he’d be insurance for a potential slow Brandon Aiyuk comeback from his ACL injury, insurance for more McCaffrey issues, and insurance in case Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing aren’t ready to break out next season. Insurance is good. If there’s anything the 49ers have learned from this season, it’s that you can run out of good players very swiftly. You can never have too many. And after a bad season for everybody, sometimes the prices are reduced just enough to run them back out there for one more season. |
| AFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES CHARGERSThe credit for the Chargers turnaround is being heaped on Coach Jim Harbaugh, but he is adamant that the real MVNon-Player for the team is GM Joe Hortiz. Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh was searching for Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz. “Where’s Joe, Where’s Joe?” he repeated as he scanned New England’s visitors locker room after the Chargers’ 40-7 playoff-clinching win over the Patriots on Saturday. When Harbaugh found Hortiz, the two embraced, exchanged an “I love you,” and agreed that they had more work to do. Harbaugh is the Chargers’ biggest star — his face is plastered across billboards in the city and his autograph is the one fans crave more than those of any of his players. This Chargers season will be added to Harbaugh’s collection of franchise turnarounds, but the moment with Hortiz was a reminder of the help Harbaugh has had in L.A. Led by Hortiz and assistant general manager Chad Alexander, the Chargers’ front office helped this team double its win total from last season by finding value in players other teams have turned away and drafting rookies prepared to contribute. “He takes no deep, long bows, but he should,” Harbaugh said of Hortiz. “He should take a very deep, long bow for just how good he is and what he’s been able to do with this team.” Part of what has made Hortiz successful in his first year as a general manager is the staff he built around him, starting with assistant GM Chad Alexander. Alexander and Hortiz’s relationship spans two decades, as they began their careers in the Baltimore Ravens’ personnel department. (Alexander and Hortiz even spent a brief time as roommates when they first got to L.A.) Alexander’s influence has shined through this season, particularly in Week 13, when the Chargers played the Atlanta Falcons. The Chargers claimed safety Marcus Maye off waivers four days before the game. Maye spent five seasons with the Jets, overlapping with Alexander, who spent five years with New York as its director of player personnel. Maye played 21 snaps days after his signing and made one of the game’s biggest plays, intercepting Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins in the fourth quarter in the 17-13 win. “The great thing with Chad is Chad can just run with it,” Hortiz said. “He’s such a great leader. And he’s a great evaluator, a great leader, extremely intelligent and just organized and just has everything the roadmap already laid out before I even go in there. It’s great.” Ahead of the season, Harbaugh and Hortiz’s relationship was one of the team’s biggest question marks. During Harbaugh’s first NFL coaching tenure, with the San Francisco 49ers from 2011 to 2014, reports of friction between Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke were consistent. Harbaugh downplayed the tension with his previous bosses when he took the Chargers job, promising that Hortiz would be Batman in the offseason to Harbaugh’s Robin, and vice versa during the regular season. So far, that strategy appears to be working effectively, and Saturday’s playoff-clinching win over the Patriots was one of the best examples of that this season. On Saturday, Chargers second-round rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey finished with eight catches for 94 yards and two touchdowns, breaking the Chargers’ single-season rookie records for receptions and yards. It was one of the best games of McConkey’s first year, coming against the team the Chargers traded up with to select him in the draft with the 34th pick. McConkey had more receiving yards Saturday than the 2024 season total of the two receivers the Patriots selected with the picks they got in the draft-day deal, Ja’Lynn Polk (87 yards in 2024) and Javon Baker (0). The Chargers were one of the league’s worst defenses in 2023 but are the NFL’s best scoring defense this season, largely because of their draft and offseason additions. Perhaps the most impactful additions have been defensive tackle Poona Ford, safety Elijah Molden and rookie cornerback Tarheeb Still. “I think Joe has done a great job bringing in players whose skill set fits what we do,” defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said. Hortiz traded for Molden ahead of Week 1, sending a 2026 seventh-round pick to Tennessee. Molden quickly emerged as a starter, with Minter moving him to deep safety and Derwin James Jr. to nickel, essentially full-time. Molden ranked second among defensive backs in tackles (72) and interceptions (3), before suffering a season-ending broken fibula in the Chargers’ win over the Patriots in Week 17. The Chargers signed Ford to a one-year deal in March. After being a backup in Buffalo last season, Ford is having the best season of his career and is the Chargers’ best interior defensive lineman. Ford has career highs in QB hits (9) and tackles for loss (8), and he recorded his first career interception. Still was a healthy inactive for the Chargers’ first three games this season. However, cornerback Asante Samuel Jr.’s shoulder injury, which has kept him on injured reserve since Week 6, opened the door for more opportunities for Still. The rookie has seized on that opportunity with a team-leading four interceptions this season. “You probably don’t even have to be in the building to see it, right?” Harbaugh said. “I mean, it’s that obvious, right? I mean, how great of a job Joe Hortiz has done, it’s obvious.” |
| THIS AND THAT |
| FAVORITES RULEIf you’ve been betting on upsets, you probably are under water. David Perdum of ESPN.com: NFL chalk is on the verge of history this week. NFL betting favorites — known as the chalk — have won 183 games outright this season, five shy of the all-time mark set in 2005, with Week 18 pending. The favored team has won 71.8% of games entering the final week, the highest winning percentage for chalk since 2005 and second-best since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978, according to ESPN Research. Sportsbooks got off to a hot start to the season, with underdogs springing 26 upsets in September, the second-most ever for the opening month. Nevada sportsbooks won a net $80.9 million in September, the most lucrative month in the state’s 75-year betting history. But the upsets dwindled during the final three months of the season, and favorites have been cooking in December. Favorites won as many as 15 of 16 games in Week 17 (the point spread varied on the Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars games). Overall in December, favorites are 56-17 straight-up, a 76.7% win rate, the second-highest for the month in the last 50 seasons. The run of favorites has been a boon for the betting public, which typically backs the perceived superior team, especially in parlays. Chris Andrews, a veteran Las Vegas sportsbook director with the South Point, estimated his shop needs the underdog in “75%” of NFL games. “Maybe more this year,” Andrews told ESPN in a text message. Favorites have covered the spread in 53.9% of games this season, the best rate since 2017 and seventh-best in the Super Bowl era. “Some of our seasoned traders have said this is the worst NFL season since 2017,” Joe Brennen, head of Prime Sportsbook, told ESPN. Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said, with so many favorites winning, bettors were in position for a big weekend. “The biggest decisions all went the way of the customers in the Chargers and Bengals [on Saturday],” Mucklow said. “The parlay buster in the New York Giants outright win [over the Indianapolis Colts] was the difference between a historic day for the customers versus a huge sigh of relief for the book.” Week 18 features an unusual underdog in the two-time defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs began the week as 10-point road underdogs to the Denver Broncos, who are playing for their playoff lives. Kansas City has clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. “Maybe an underdog can win a football game?” John Murray, vice president for the Westgate SuperBook, said. “That would be cool.” |
| BYRON LEFTWICH RETURNSOnce a hot head coaching candidate, then on the street for two seasons. Mike Jones of ESPN.com tracks down Byron Leftwich: He has spent the last two football seasons largely shrouded in mystery — once a virtual lock to lead his own team, then fired, then off the grid. And thanks to his relatively solitary nature, Leftwich’s goals and whereabouts have remained murky. Influential NFL figures tried to maintain contact with Leftwich to keep him on the radar, but they say their messages and calls went unanswered. Former colleagues relayed conflicting accounts: Some said he was on shortlists for a handful of college jobs; others reported he had largely isolated himself in West Virginia while waiting for an NFL offensive coordinator role to open up; others sensed Leftwich no longer wanted to coach. Leftwich is here to clear that up. “I. Want. To. Coach,” he says emphatically over what’s left of his fried eggs, bacon and a biscuit. After a year-and-a-half devoted largely to his 14-year-old son, Dominic — making breakfast, dropping off and picking up, traveling up and down the East Coast for a demanding AAU basketball circuit, watching every football practice and game — Leftwich wants back in the coaching game. “There’s something missing. … I really do feel as though something’s not there, and I’ve got to get back to it,” says Leftwich, who received his son’s blessing to return. “I’m really into helping other players. I want to help them to play the best. I love to teach.” Leftwich viewed his sabbatical as an exercise in patience. After things ended in Tampa, he promised himself he wouldn’t pounce on any opportunity for the sake of landing a gig. He didn’t direct members of his small circle to drum up a media campaign to keep his name hot and wasn’t about to ask counterparts for handouts. Confident in his body of work, Leftwich maintained a belief that at the right time, the right job would present itself. Two hiring cycles quietly came and went, but Leftwich has remained unshaken. “I didn’t have the opportunities right after and this last year that I thought I would have, but I understand the process, and I understand that the whole world’s trying to get in that league,” Leftwich says. “Nothing should be given to me. Nobody owes me anything. So, I’m going to just work and see if I can have the opportunity to coach in that league again.” Some league insiders believe Leftwich’s under-the-radar approach may have cost him. But it’s the route he feels most comfortable with, even if his supporters wish he were more outspoken. “Byron will not push himself out there. He’s going to do it on his work,” says Arians, Leftwich’s offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh and coaching mentor in Arizona and Tampa Bay. “But I’ll say it: I think it’s total bullsh– that he’s not a head coach in this league.” “He’s the toughest and one of the smartest, brightest dudes I know,” Arians says. “He was such a bright quarterback, and he had a great rapport with young players. … Guys have questions, he could answer anything and everything: Why and how it’s going to make you better if you do it this way. He just has a great feel for the game.” “Awesome leadership qualities have always oozed out of him,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin says. “Some of it comes from the position he played, but he has always had an ease about him when it comes to leadership. He’s comfortable in his own skin and gets along well with people, and he carries himself in a way that commands respect.”– – –Life with the GOAT got off to a rocky start. COVID-19 restrictions robbed Brady of the usual acclimation process offered by offseason practices and meetings. Arians says Brady didn’t fully grasp Tampa Bay’s offense until mid-November. He directed Leftwich to blend the aggressive downfield elements of Arians’ playbook with the up-tempo tenets that Brady thrived at executing during his storied Patriots career. Things started to click in the final month of the season. After entering their Week 13 bye 7-5 and averaging 28.6 points a game, the Buccaneers returned with a revamped offense and reeled off eight straight victories (four to close out the regular season and four more en route to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy) while averaging 33.9 points a contest. “He’s got a great work ethic, a great football IQ. It’s just been a growing process for both of us,” Brady said when asked about Leftwich during Super Bowl week. “It’s taken some time to get there because we didn’t have a lot of the things that we normally have with football (in the offseason). Over the last couple of months we’ve certainly executed a little bit better.” Through a spokesperson, Fox Sports declined to make Brady available for this story.– – –That offseason, Leftwich interviewed for head coaching openings with the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars, the team that drafted him No. 7 in 2003. It was widely believed that Leftwich would receive a Jacksonville homecoming as the Jaguars’ head coach. But then came reports that Leftwich turned down the job because he didn’t want to work with general manager Trent Baalke. Leftwich denies those claims. He says he had a good interview with the Jaguars and didn’t know Baalke. “The stories started out of nowhere. I thought I was in a good spot, didn’t even talk to anybody. I understand this business, and I’m wise enough to know not to talk about what you’re going through when you’re going through it,” Leftwich says. “I never turned down that job because they never offered it. There were a lot of stories out there and I never spoke on it, but I never turned it down.” “I was willing and ready to take that (Jaguars) job,” Leftwich says. “That’s where I played, and I was very interested in trying to help that situation — all hands on deck — really trying to help that situation, because I know that city, I know the fan base and I thought that they had really good players down there that you can win football games with.– – –Tampa Bay’s offense plunged to 15th in yards (346.7) and 25th in points (18.4) in 2022. After a first-round playoff exit, Brady retired for good and Bowles fired Leftwich. “We didn’t score enough points and we didn’t run it well, and at times we didn’t throw it well,” Bowles said at the time when explaining his decision. “When you see something wrong, you have to try and fix it. I’ve been with those guys a long time, so it was a tough decision. But I felt the change had to be made.” Arians, who had taken on an advisory role with the team, didn’t agree with the move. He is on record saying Brady’s personal matters hindered the quarterback’s play. And the former coach believes Leftwich became the scapegoat for the Buccaneers’ struggles. “It looks like it all falls on Byron, and that to me is totally wrong,” Arians says. “I mean, it was just a different philosophy that Todd wanted to go with. … But if there is anyone that puts anything out negatively about Byron, they’re totally full of s—.” The fallout from that season dramatically altered Leftwich’s coaching trajectory, but he says he understood Bowles’ decision. “I felt it was time to move on,” Leftwich says. “It was the first time we were out of the top five in offense. So the fact that we were 15th allowed people to say, finally, ‘Does that guy really know what he’s doing? Can he do this?’ … That’s the nature of the business.”– – –Following his Tampa Bay departure, he expected to receive inquiries, but no NFL teams called. He received some interest in college positions, but some of those would have required him to make what he believed were rushed decisions, so he declined. Others didn’t seem like good fits, so he embraced the opportunity to make up for lost time with his son. The body clock still chimes at 3 a.m. without the use of an alarm clock, just as it did during his coaching days. Instead of reporting to an office by 3:30 a.m. for film study, practice and game planning, he hits the weights, then the punching bags. By midmorning, after he feeds Dominic and gets him to school, Leftwich finds himself in front of a screen, clicker in hand. He studies the coaches film of every NFL team. When watching live, he calls plays as if he were in the quarterback’s ear. Sometimes his predictions are correct, sometimes they’re not, but Leftwich makes the next call regardless. He digs deep to expand his knowledge of offensive and defensive patterns and tendencies, “staying sharp and up on what everybody’s doing.” “He has a 360-degree perspective of the game — not only offense but defense as well,” Tomlin says. “Certain people have the ability to see the game in 3-D, and Byron is one of them.”– – –Both Arians and Tomlin agree that Leftwich should be a member of an NFL coaching staff, if not leading his own. But to return to the NFL ranks, Leftwich has a series of questions he must answer. A query of six front-office members who are expected to interview for general manager positions — and who are thus forming their own prospective head coach candidate lists — yielded mixed reviews. All agreed Leftwich exhibited great instincts and leadership abilities as a player. Some believed those strengths translated well to coaching and praised the abilities he showcased with Tampa Bay. Others expressed reservations about Leftwich’s independence. How much of Tampa Bay’s success stemmed from Brady’s greatness, they wondered. How much of the offensive explosiveness was Leftwich responsible for, and how much came from Arians’ expertise and direction? How much of the drop-off in production in 2022 can be attributed to Arians’ absence? Leftwich believes a deep dive into his qualifications and responsibilities in Tampa Bay will dispel any doubts. “I was blessed to have that opportunity in Tampa because the guy that hired me put a lot on me and I know how to do things the right way because of that,” he says. “I encourage anybody to do their background checks. Ask anyone who has worked with me.” “I get a lot of credit for things I didn’t do in Tampa,” Arians says. “Byron called all the plays. Very seldom did I call anything. He did it all, even in the Super Bowl.” Then there’s the recency question. In a league where head coaching tenures rarely exceed three years, hot prospects shoot up in popularity, then fade quickly into oblivion. Will Leftwich’s name still carry enough clout to garner consideration in a coaching market expected to feature head coaching veterans such as Mike Vrabel and Brian Flores and coordinators Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn, Joe Brady and Kliff Kingsbury? Leftwich recently hired a new agent and stressed his desire to aggressively pursue NFL jobs. He believes that if he meets with a team owner or general manager looking for a head coach — or a head coach looking for a coordinator — his credentials will elevate him above competing candidates. “Just give me the opportunity. Bring me in and see. Communicate with me, see if I’m the right type of leader you want,” Leftwich says. “Do your homework. See if I can lead men. … See if I know my X’s and O’s. See if I know people. See if I know what needs to be done to succeed at the job.” |
| COACHING HOT SEATSWith three openings already, Charles McDonald of YahooSports.com identifies seven other jobs that bear watching next week. The NFL has one week left in the regular season and that unfortunately means a handful of head coaches will be out of a job in the coming days. A few teams have already made a head start on where they want to go in terms of who is in charge, but there will be more firings that need to be executed. Here are the teams to keep an eye on this hiring cycle. 3 teams with immediate head coaching openings New Orleans SaintsThe Saints’ biggest problems are crippling. At some point, they need to find a new franchise quarterback and they have a salary-cap problem that will hold them back for a few more offseasons. If the next head coach can get a long enough leash to see the cap problems through, there’s potential to rebuild here. Patience is going to be needed since the Saints’ ability to add free agents will be severely hindered. New York JetsIt’s impossible to guess what happens to the Jets this offseason given the lingering problem of Aaron Rodgers, but they have the base of a team that can turn things around quickly. Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson and others should have this team performing better than they have over the past couple seasons. The biggest problem here is team owner Woody Johnson, who is running the franchise like a circus and may deter some of the top candidates in this cycle. Chicago BearsThe Bears fired Matt Eberflus after their horrific mishap on Thanksgiving, but the 4-12 Bears should be a quick rebuilding job if their new head coach can get Caleb Williams and the offense moving in the right direction. There have been some flashes of greatness from Williams and that side of the ball, but overall there is way too much sloppy play despite the investments on the offense. There are building blocks here with a ways to go. 4 teams that could (or should?) have head coach openings Las Vegas RaidersCome on. This team stinks and is unprepared almost every week. If Antonio Pierce is still the head coach after Week 18, Raiders fans should storm the facilities. New York GiantsAny time there’s a season this bad, firings are possible. So far, there hasn’t been much by the way of news regarding head coach Brian Daboll’s job, but this team is 3-13 when it was expecting to be far better coming into the season. Any incoming potential regime would have the ability and draft assets to mold the Giants as they see fit, starting with the selection of a new quarterback. Jacksonville JaguarsThis is another obvious one. Head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke have done nothing but lose games since the midpoint of last season, when the Jaguars were 8-3. Since Week 12 of last season, the Jaguars are 5-19 and in no man’s land. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and star rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. at least give them a chance to break out of the NFL gutter if they fire Pederson and Baalke, and nail the next regime. Dallas CowboysThe Cowboys have had an interesting year, stumbling amid the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott, but experiencing a defensive resurgence once Micah Parsons returned to full strength. Mike McCarthy’s contract expires after this season ends. However, the Cowboys’ solid performance without their star quarterback may get McCarthy another year or two. 2 potential one-and-done’s Tennessee TitansThe Titans spent money to have the season they just put together, which is why Brian Callahan might be in danger. Trading for L’Jarius Sneed and signing Calvin Ridley to be one of the worst teams in the league isn’t going to fly. One-and-done coaches are still unusual even if it’s not as taboo as it used to be. Callahan might be OK. New England PatriotsLess likely than the Titans because the Patriots didn’t add all that much to their roster this offseason outside of their rookie class, which features potential superstar quarterback Drake Maye. Jerod Mayo should at least get a season or two to build up a defense that doesn’t have much talent right now. 1 long-shot firing candidate Cincinnati BengalsCincinnati is fighting for its playoff life despite featuring an offense with three of the best players in the league with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Their slow starts to the season have to be considered unacceptable, but if they’re able to sneak into the playoffs Zac Taylor very well may save his job. We think McCarthy stays, and maybe Daboll. Callahan will get another year, maybe not Antonio Pierce. No mention of Mike McDaniel of Miami by McDonald, or two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, although both have popped up on other watch lists. Most Buccaneers fans would endorse keeping OC Liam Coen, even if that meant the departure of Todd Bowles after three straight division titles. After last Sunday, should the Colts Shane Steichen, who works for Jim Irsay, be on the watch list? |
