So here is If The Season Ended Today for both conferences, without the results of the Monday night Cincinnati at Jacksonville tilt.

In the NFC, the Eagles are losers but still in first while the Rams and Packers draw ever closer.  In the AFC, the Chiefs are the lowest of the division leaders, but still two games ahead of the Broncos in the West:

Great races at the Wild Card level, with four teams tied for the final two spots in the NFC (the Rams have swept the Seahawks, but the Packers have a head-to-head win over the Rams.

In the AFC, four teams “tied” for three spots.

W-L                Conf

Philadelphia    East     10-2                 6-1

San Francisco West      9-3                 7-1

Detroit             North     9-3                 6-2

Atlanta             South     6-6                 4-4

Dallas              WC1      9-3                 6-3

Minnesota       WC2      6-6                 6-3

Green Bay      WC3      6-6                 4-3

LA Rams                       6-6     –           4-4

Seattle                           6-6                5-4

Tampa Bay                   5-7                4-4

New Orleans                 5-7                 2-5

And in the AFC, the Jaguars are ahead of the mighty Chiefs – at the Monday morning moment:

Miami              East       9-3              6-2

Baltimore         North     9-3              6-3

Jacksonville    South     8-3              6-2

Kansas City    West       8-4             6-3                                                                                

Pittsburgh        WC1      7-5             5-3

Cleveland        WC2      7-5             5-3

Indianapolis     WC3      7-5             5-3

Houston                         7-5             4-3

Denver                           6-6             3-5

Buffalo                            6-6             3-5

Cincinnati                       5-6             1-6

And – the NFC was 4-1 against the AFC this week, but the AFC still holds a 37-29 advantage.  That mostly comes for the 11-4 AFC North against (mostly) the 6-10 NFC West.

– – –

This from Peter King:

I think fans always complain about Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes getting all the calls—I hear it every week. Well, he got a bad call in his favor Sunday night, and a terrible non-call went against him. Either way, two terrible officiating decisions marred the end of the game. With 57 seconds left, down eight, Mahomes scrambled toward the right boundary and got drilled by safety Jonathan Owens. The replay showed both of Mahomes’ feet were still inbounds as Owens hit him after a gain of 10, but the flag came out and added 15 yards to the end of the play. Now KC had first down at the Green Bay 45-yard line. Absolutely not unnecessary roughness on Owens. Then Mahomes threw deep down the middle for Marquez Valdes-Scantling in his return to Green Bay. Valdes-Scantling reached for the ball and got mugged by rookie corner Carrington Valentine. Both Cris Collinsworth and Terry McAulay said no question it was interference. Would have given Kansas City a first down at the five-yard line. Should have given Kansas City a first down at the five-yard line. Back judge Greg Yette simply can’t swallow the whistle on a potential game-changing play like that.

On the bogus personal foul, there was a conference among the officials before it was assessed.  How many times have we heard commentators say “I like the fact that they are huddling to make sure they got it right”?  And then they got it wrong.

And we thought, while they pretend to talk to each other isn’t “New York” whispering in their ear to give them the proper call?  They whisper about a lot of other things, including minute ball spotting corrections.  Can’t they whisper on this boundary question?  Did they whisper bad advice?

Then there is the question of Mahomes being “in bounds”.  We’re not so sure one of his feet wasn’t tapping the chalk, but that said why is the hit perfectly legal if his toe (which can’t be seen by the defender) is in bounds, but a vile, vicious 15-yard penalty if the toe is a couple of inches further forward.

It was a legal hit when Owens closed on Mahomes and stepped forward.  We think reasonable intent should matter (i.e. “that guy is out of bounds, I shouldn’t hit him”) as opposed to tiny differences in foot placement along the line.

CHICAGO

There are whispers that the current football people in Chicago, like GM Ryan Poles, are looking forward to 2024 with more QB JUSTIN FIELDS.

But Dianna Russini of ESPN.com gets a hint, possibly from the source himself, that President Kevin Warren is about to make his move:

The Chicago Bears have no plans to make any in-season moves regarding their coaching staff.  A league source told me this current staff is expected to finish out the regular season, and then decisions will be made.

Lots of decisions. Big decisions.

The future of quarterback Justin Fields.

The futures of head coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles.

Everything is being evaluated.

A little less than a year ago, the Bears brought in former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren as the organization’s new CEO/president. At the time, chairman George McCaskey called Warren “a man of integrity, respect and excellence.” Warren started working at Halas Hall in April and since then has been the leader of their stadium endeavors and that’s not all.

A league source told me Warren has been given the power to oversee Poles and the Bears front office. He’s earned it, too, with more than two decades of experience in the NFL. Warren has a strong hand in football operations and will have a significant role in the potential firings, hirings, and decisions at the quarterback position. He has spent the last eight months getting a feel for the organization. McCaskey praised Warren during his hire as “a proven leader who has many times stepped outside of his comfort zone to challenge status quo for unconventional growth and prosperity.”

So what can we expect from Warren? He won’t be making any knee-jerk decisions or choosing a path for optics. He’s described as methodical. Unemotional. A planner. There’s a long-term approach being applied.

It doesn’t take a lot of emotion to see that the Bears could be in line for another major overhaul.

GREEN BAY

After beating the Chiefs, this stat from an NBC graphic has been updated:

The Packers are 16-0 in December in Matt LaFleur’s five seasons as coach.

– – –

This from Mike Sando of The Athletic:

The Packers’ chances have improved from 15 percent to 25 percent to 53 percent to 67 percent during their three-game winning streak against the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers were underdogs in every game. They could be favored to win over the course of their remaining schedule, which features the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love now ranks 12th in EPA per pass play. The Packers’ offense ranks 10th in EPA per play. Coach Matt LaFleur improved to 16-0 in December and can make it 20-0 if his Packers can beat the Giants, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings. It’s a new day in Green Bay.

DALLAS

Peter King talks QB DAK PRESCOTT and MVP:

Dak 4 MVP?

Dak Prescott is in the MVP conversation because of his strong play since Dallas’ 42-10 loss at San Francisco in week five. The next three weeks will tell whether he has an excellent chance or just a puncher’s chance at his first MVP. Five points to consider in MVPology:

Dallas has to win against big competition for Prescott to have a chance. Next four games: Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at Miami, Detroit. The Cowboys’ nine wins have come against teams with records of .500 or worse. Prescott’s got to slay a couple of dragons in December. Stats are important, of course. But recent MVP voting tells us that team records are of equal or more importance.

Each of the last 10 MVPs has come from a 1 or 2 playoff seed. Dallas, as of today, is the NFC’s 5 seed. Charting where the last 10 MVPs came from: 1 seeds—Peyton Manning, 2013; Cam Newton, 2015; Tom Brady, 2017; Patrick Mahomes, 2018; Lamar Jackson, 2019; Aaron Rodgers, 2020; Rodgers, 2021; Mahomes, 2022 … 2 seeds—Rodgers, 2014; Matt Ryan, 2016. Ten years, every year, with the best four teams producing the MVP. That’s a trend.

Looking for an exception to the recent rule? Try 2012. Adrian Peterson was coming off January 2012 knee reconstruction and had one of best years ever by a running back, with 2,097 yards. Peyton Manning’s first season in Denver was one of his best seasons ever. Denver was the AFC’s top seed. Minnesota was 6 in the NFC. The MVP vote was split: 30.5 votes for Peterson, 19.5 for Manning. Voters that year seemed smitten with Peterson’s comeback, even for a so-so team. Maybe Prescott could be so good individually that he overcomes Dallas being, say, the 5 seed. Problem there, as it stands now: Brock Purdy could have similarly great numbers and play for a higher seed. What would differentiate Prescott? Maybe …

The Empathy Factor. Prescott is well-liked, and deservedly so. He has a tougher job by at least some small measure because of the star on his helmet; he has to be great as a quarterback and be great as a Dallas Cowboys quarterback. It’s all speculation now, and the next four games will tell. But I could see Prescott garnering votes if Dallas wins two or three of these big games coming up and he continues to play great, even if Dallas is the 5 seed.

There’s not anyone running away with the MVP with five weeks to play. I could see Mahomes, Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Prescott, Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa and maybe Tyreek Hill (if he chases the all-time receiving records) in the race this month, with C.J. Stroud still high on my list too. If you want to see more non-quarterbacks in contention, I get it. But it’s called the Most Valuable Player, not Most Outstanding Player. On the best teams, most often, the most valuable player is the quarterback.

There are 50 voters. Votes are cast the week after the regular season ends on Jan. 7. I have one of the 50 votes. Entering the last five weeks of the regular season, here’s my MVP ballot, in order: Purdy, Prescott, Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Hurts/Stroud (tie). Subject to change.

PHILADELPHIA

The head of NFL Officiating, Walt Anderson, was heavily involved in the ejection of Dom DiSandro, the Eagles “Head of Security” who mixed it up with 49ers LB DRE GREENLAW.  But Anderson did not have the power to offset the 15-yard penalties.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Both 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw and Eagles head of security Dom DiSandro were ejected after a second-half sideline altercation on Sunday. But only the Eagles were penalized.

After the game, NFL senior V.P. of officiating Walt Anderson explained the situation to pool reporter Zach Berman.

“The officials had a flag on the field for a personal foul by San Francisco No. 57, and then there was continuing action,” Anderson said. “And so what Rule 19 allows us to do is provide assistance by looking at the video. And we saw video that showed that there was a staff person that made contact with the player and that the player involved, No. 57, made contact with the staff member which warranted his disqualification. The non-player, he was contributing to that escalation. Rule 19 does not afford us the ability to help the officials in throwing a flag that they do not throw for a non-player. That’s only afforded for a player action.”

So, basically, the league office can’t tell the on-site officials to flag a non-player, but the league office can eject a non-player.

Which means that Rule 19 needs to change to allow the league to tell the officials to throw the flag. While it didn’t impact Sunday’s game, the 15 yards of field position could make a difference in the future.

Moving forward, chances are that Greenlaw will be fined. Also, the Eagles and/or DiSandro also likely will be facing some sort of discipline.

Even with the ejections, the Eagles came out way ahead in the deal trading a significant opposing player for a guy who stands on the sidelines watching the game.  Mike Florio says that’s why the NFL has to come out hard on DiSandro and the team (maybe the head coach will be banned for three games from coaching on the sidelines although there is no evidence Nick Sirianni had anything to do with DiSandro’s actions):

Big Dom was sent off the field, too. And that could just be the beginning. As one high-level executive with another team predicts to PFT, there will be a significant punishment imposed both on DiSandro and the Eagles by the league.

Team security officials are not in-game bouncers. Keeping the peace is the job of the officials. Non-players who insinuate themselves into the game action risk losing access to the game area.

Look at what the league did to the kid who gave Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill a phone for a celebration. His credential was revoked for the rest of the year. Why wouldn’t that be the same case for DiSandro? It should be no different for any non-player or non-head coach who tries to get involved in any kind of altercation.

Earlier this year, the NFL distributed a memo to all teams regarding fighting. Among other things, the memo says that “[m]ore significant accountability measures” might apply to teams whose players or non-players “join a fight already in progress.”

Again, the job of a team’s head of security does not include breaking up fights during a game. Absent swift and significant action by the league, other teams could be tempted to have non-players act as instigators, more than willing to trade an ejection of the non-player for an ejection of someone who actually is on the field.

The Athletic with a quick dive into DiSandro:

DiSandro — known as “Big Dom” — left the sideline to cheers from Philadelphia’s crowd. But who is DiSandro and what happened on Sunday that put him in the spotlight? Here’s what to know.

Why were DiSandro, Greenlaw ejected?

Officials ejected DiSandro and Greenlaw in the third quarter of Sunday’s 49ers-Eagles game following a brief altercation on the sideline.

Greenlaw was flagged for slamming Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith to the ground out of bounds. DiSandro stepped in between Greenlaw and Smith, pushing the two apart. He appeared to exchange words with the 49ers’ defender, who then made contact with DiSandro’s face as he aggressively pointed at him.

Both were ejected shortly thereafter.

Greenlaw had a game-high seven tackles when he was disqualified from the game.

Officials’ response

The officials had a flag for Greenlaw for a personal foul, and there was “continuing action,” NFL senior vice president of officiating Walt Anderson said.

Officials reviewed video that showed “a staff person (DiSandro) that made contact with the player and that the player involved, No. 57 (Greenlaw), made contact with the staff member which warranted his disqualification,” Anderson said in the pool report.

Anderson said that DiSandro “was contributing to that escalation.” Anderson also mentioned an NFL rule that “does not afford us the ability to help the officials in throwing a flag that they do not throw for a non-player.”

Who is ‘Big Dom’

DiSandro’s official title is the Eagles’ senior adviser to the GM/chief security officer. He “oversees all safety and security matters for players, coaches, and executives,” according to the team website.

He also “directs security at the team’s training complex, is responsible for security measures related to team travel and logistics and provides education on the NFL’s personal conduct policy.”

DiSandro is in his 25th season with Philadelphia.

CAROLINA

Diana Russini of The Athletic with whispers – that Frank Reich (and probably fired QB coach Josh McCown) wanted to play QB ANDY DALTON to get wins to save their jobs (and were not allowed) – that and other gossip:

“Stroud’s early success 100 percent played into Tepper’s decision to fire (head coach) Frank Reich. We all felt the pressure and frustrations,” a Panthers source shared over the phone this week. “It’s hard to step in and carry the weight of a franchise, and Bryce has it harder than most here.”

• Despite the team trading up to draft Young No. 1 overall in April, a team source said that by Week 5 multiple Carolina coaches wanted to bench the rookie for veteran quarterback Andy Dalton. Some believed the team needed a change and that Young required more coaching. The team decided this wasn’t about trying to get wins in the short term but to stay on task with teaching and developing Young in the offense. From all my conversations this past week, the Panthers still believe Bryce Young can be an incredible quarterback. Another team source texted, “He needs better protections and weapons. He has ‘it.’ We do not protect the middle of the pocket. He needs it most in this area because he’s 5-10.”

• Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero was never approached by Tepper to take over the interim head coach position, a league source said. If you recall, when Evero was asked to take on that role in Denver after the firing of Nathaniel Hackett, he turned it down. He later explained he didn’t believe it was a good situation. He was fired at the end of the 2022 season and hired to call the defense in Carolina. There are people on the current staff who believe Evero will have some head coach opportunities outside Carolina in a few weeks.

• The expectation in the Panthers building is Tepper will try to lure Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Carolina after trying to hire him last season. Johnson decided to stay in Detroit last hiring cycle, but a league source told me Johnson is ready for a head coaching job now.

Some in the Panthers organization, per a league source, have been texting Johnson about how complicated it has been to work in Carolina this season. Johnson is expected to be the top coaching candidate in 2024.

Peter King joins the pile-on on Tepper:

It wasn’t particularly surprising that Carolina owner David Tepper fired coach Frank Reich last Monday. It’s Tepper’s M.O. In the last 48 months, Tepper has fired three full-time head coaches in mid-season. After 28 games of ownership, he dismissed Ron Rivera. He fired Matt Rhule 38 games into his seven-year contract. Now he fired Reich after just 11 games. Tepper also owns the MLS franchise Charlotte FC, and in its two years of existence, he has fired both head coaches. This means:

None of Tepper’s five head coaches has lasted as long as 2.5 seasons.

His five head coaches in two sports have lasted an average of 29 games under his ownership, which began in 2018.

Tepper willingly sold the farm to draft quarterback Bryce Young in April, then fired the two coaches in place to nurture and develop him, Reich and QB coach Josh McCown, after 10 months on the job—even though Young liked and trusted both coaches in the midst of a disastrous season marked by one of the leakiest offensive lines in football.

An owner whose tutelage in the game involved nine years as a minority owner of the Steelers has now forgotten everything he saw in Pittsburgh. Tepper has employed three head coaches and three interim coaches in the past four calendar years. The Steelers have employed three head coaches in the last 54 years.

Tepper is Carolina’s biggest impediment to success.

It’s easy, and justifiable, for an owner to be impatient and angry at being 1-10 after trading up to pick a quarterback with the top pick in the draft. But intelligent people who understand the market and world they’re living in should understand what it takes to succeed in it. Tepper doesn’t. His kneejerk reaction is: We stink, and the quarterback we passed on is setting the league on fire, and our quarterback looks like he’s a JV player. Heads must roll. The specter of C.J. Stroud’s overwhelming success in turning around Houston overnight after Young went one and Stroud two in the draft should have zero to do with Carolina’s decision-making. But let’s be real. An emotional owner like Tepper has to find the juxtaposition between his QB and Houston’s unacceptable. So Reich walks the plank.

The Panthers won five of their last eight games last year, which led some in Carolina to think the franchise, with some good defensive pieces, was just a quarterback away from contention. Let’s look how they won those five games. Carolina rushed for an average of 226 yards per game in those five wins, an astounding 5.1 yards per rush—after trading Christian McCaffrey. More astounding: Carolina had a fifties-era run-pass ratio of 69-31, crazy at a time when the average rushing rate is about 41 percent per game. The Panthers didn’t trade a huge ransom to be a counter-culture running team. Changing to a passing team, particularly after trading the number one receiver as part of the package to draft Young, wasn’t going to happen overnight.

Changing a football philosophy takes time. Chuck Noll was 1-13 his first year in Pittsburgh, Bill Walsh 2-14 in his first year in San Francisco, Jimmy Johnson 1-15 in his first year in Dallas. They went on to win 10 Super Bowls, total, with those teams. Not saying Reich would have won anything, but how can you know, 10 months into his tenure? (In Detroit, Dan Campbell in his first 11 games was 0-10-1; he’s 20-14 since.)

Young hasn’t played well overall. But he’s also been under significant pressure consistently. Over his first 11 games, he’s the only regular starter this year to have faced pressure on at least a third of his pass-drops each game, per Next Gen Stats. Not healthy for a good passing game, particularly after trading your best receiver. One more Next Gen negative: Carolina left tackle Ikem Ekwonu has allowed the fourth-most pressures (62) among all offensive linemen—and center Bradley Bozeman is worst in the league at his position in sacks (eight) and pressures (40) allowed.

There’s one other thing, as told to me by one NFL offensive coach with a long history in the league: “One thing these owners who fire people quickly don’t understand is what it takes to build a team, particularly a team with a rookie quarterback. The quarterback comes in his first year after the draft, and it’s a short offseason, and if he’s going to start right away, it’s an accelerated process. So you go through that first year, and you’re looking forward to correcting all his mistakes and continuing to build him up in a full off-season in year two. So you fire his head coach who I’m sure was pretty hands-on and his quarterback coach in the middle of his first year, and he works with other people for the rest of that year, and then everybody gets fired, and then there’s a third group that comes in to coach the young quarterback. I mean, maybe they’ll keep the coaches who stayed after Reich, but I doubt it. So the young quarterback getting coached by three different sets of people in his first 12 months as your franchise quarterback. How is that healthy?”

It isn’t. It’s lunacy.

What is bothersome about Tepper is he camped out in Matt Rhule’s driveway in Waco, Texas, waiting for him to come back from vacation with his family in January 2020, just so he could get the first shot at hiring him. He gave Rhule a rich seven-year contract, and fired him a month into the third season. He hired Reich, who taught Carson Wentz in his best year in Philly, who was hands-on with Nick Foles in the Super Bowl year, who had playoff years with Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers in Indy, and then he got dumb in his first 10 months in Carolina. How does Tepper entrust him on a clear rebuild with a patchwork offensive line and after trading the number one receiver—and then fire him when the team is awful three months in?

I feel for the fans in Carolina. The Panthers will have to either franchise or overpay their best player, edge rusher Brian Burns, a free agent in March, to stay on this sinking ship. After dealing McCaffrey and D.J. Moore in the last 14 months, they’ve got massive offensive holes and their only proven, reliable receiver, Adam Thielen, will be 34 next opening day. The way to not fix things is with impatience, which is Tepper’s best trait.

The Panthers are miles from hopelessness, and the captain of the ship leads the league in panic. He’s Steinbrenner without the winning. Now the question is: Is there anyone in his life, or in the Panthers’ organization, who can keep David Tepper from driving this franchise off a cliff?

SAN FRANCISCO

Peter King praises the Niners, now conquerors with a capital C of the Cowboys and Eagles:

You know what football needed? A new great rivalry. A bitter rivalry. Steelers-Ravens was terrific for a while, but Ray Lewis and James Harrison are long gone. Eagles-Cowboys is good, but not particularly angry. Niners-Seahawks has calmed down since Richard Sherman went volcanic. Kansas City doesn’t have one great rival. Jets-Pats, Falcons-Saints, Bears-Packers … meh. Both sides need to be good for the rivalry to draw an audience.

Now, Niners-Eagles. That could be a great one for years to come. Seeds are planted. Young coaches who won’t back down (Nick Sirianni 42, Kyle Shanahan 43), young quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy launching promising careers, angry defenses that play chippy, an ejection of the leading tackler in the game …

… for what looked like Dre Greenlaw trying to rub shaving cream on Dom DiSandro’s face.

Dom DiSandro. Eagles director of security. The security guy, who is supposed to do the ejecting, got ejected too! Nice trade. The 49ers lose the leading tackler in the game. The Eagles lose the escort for Nick Sirianni.

“I tried my hardest not to lose my mind,” Niners coach Kyle Shanahan said.

“Pretty ridiculous,” said Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers, “that somebody without pads or a helmet on, let alone not even a coach, put hands on another player. I mean, if you know Dre, you’re flirting with danger there. I don’t know, man. I’ve never seen that before. We were pretty bummed that he got kicked out.”

But see, that’s the kind of thing that contributes to a bitter rivalry.

Great players are good for such a rivalry too. The 49ers had more of them Sunday in the 42-19 rout of the formerly 10-1 Eagles. Brock Purdy continued his magic carpet ride as the league’s most unlikely burgeoning franchise quarterback. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk comprise the most physically gifted/imposing receiving duo in the game. George Kittle’s a blocking/catching metronome. And though this wasn’t McCaffrey’s noisiest of 25 games as a Niner, I thought the best thing he did all night was a bit of dirty work that closed out the game in the fourth quarter.

The best thing McCaffrey did is something that makes Kyle Shanahan call him a walk-on player in an all-pro body. It says much about him, and much about why the 49ers, today, are the most dangerous team in football.

With this to King from RB CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY:

Pride Without the Ball

Christian McCaffrey had some fine plays, as he always does, in the surprising rout of the Eagles, a game that stamped the 49ers—at least this week—as the best all-around team in the game. Emphasis on all-around. Twenty touches, 133 yards, a TD. Pretty normal day at the office for the man who leads the league in rushing by 191 yards.

You had to look closely to see the real value of McCaffrey. It came on the insurance touchdown for the Niners, up 28-13 early in the fourth quarter, ball on the Philadelphia 18-yard line.

“We kind of expected blitz right there,” McCaffrey said. He was on the Niners’ plane at Philadelphia International Airport, just before takeoff back to California, almost two hours after the game.

“We talked a little bit before that, and we said Jauan [Jennings] was the hot receiver if they did end up bringing a zero blitz [seven rushers, no defenders deep].” McCaffrey’s job: picking up an unblocked blitzer somewhere near the middle of the line, if one came. “It’s part of playing the running-back position. The most important thing is protection and being able to sink your hips and block a linebacker up the middle.”

Here came linebacker Christian Ellis through the A gap, the unblocked man coming through a gaping hole where the center once was. McCaffrey, squat and set, met Ellis head-on around the 20-yard line and didn’t give an inch. In fact, the blitz pickup, per Next Gen Stats, was absolutely perfect. Seven rushers, zero pressure on Brock Purdy. He had time to spot Jennings out to the left, short, and dumped a strike to him. Jennings did the rest, scoring from 18 yards out. Ballgame.

What’s good to watch on the Niners is the attention to details small and big, famous and invisible.

“If you don’t pride in playing without the ball,” McCaffrey said, “whether it’s fakes or blitz pickups or blocking in space, you’re not going to play here. George Kittle’s the best [tight end] in the league because of what he does in the run game. Then you look on tape—you’ll see Jauan, Deebo and BA [Aiyuk] blocking 35 yards downfield. We keep a pretty high standard for it.”

The ball gets spread around pretty equitably. But even if McCaffrey goes a couple of games without starring or scoring, and it’s happened, you’re not going to hear anything out of him. Or out of Kittle, Aiyuk or Samuel either.

“I think we have a really unselfish team,” he said. “We just know that we have a lot of talented guys when they have the ball in their hands. It’s so important that we play to the whistle because you never know who’s gonna make the big play. It’s coached. It’s really coached. It’s coached every single day: Playing without the ball is something that all of us take a lot of pride in. That’s a massive standard for Kyle.”

The Niners had their three-game hiccup when left tackle Trent Williams and Samuel were hurt. That leaves them not much margin for error if they want to win home-field. Entering the last five weeks in the NFC, four teams are in play for it: Philadelphia 10-2, San Francisco 9-3, Detroit 9-3, Dallas 9-3. The 49ers have the tiebreaker over Dallas and Philadelphia because of head-to-head wins. They have the Seahawks, Ravens and Rams coming to Levi’s Stadium in weeks 14, 16 and 18, so the home stretch won’t be simple. But how they’ve played when healthy leaves me thinking San Francisco is likely a win over Baltimore at home on Christmas night away from winning the NFC’s lone bye. If healthy. Big if with this team.

McCaffrey missed 22 games due to injury his last two years in Carolina, but his health’s been pristine in San Francisco. He’s missed zero of 25 so far. He thinks he’s in football nirvana, with an imaginative offense, playing alongside guys who keep the main thing the main thing. “Pretty fun going to work every day when you’ve got unselfish guys who put the work in, do it the right way, and have fun doing it. I’m extremely fortunate to be here, man,” he said.

– – –

Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com thinks the 49ers and QB BROCK PURDY are for real:

49ers will win out the rest of the regular season

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The 49ers had a beatdown of the Eagles on Sunday, which was clearly their biggest test the rest of the way. San Francisco is 9-3 and looking like the best team in the NFL, winning its last four games by a combined 85 points — three of those wins against teams .500 or better.

The 49ers play the Seahawks (home), Cardinals (away), Ravens (home), Commanders (away), and Rams (home) to close out the season. Baltimore is the toughest game left, but San Francisco beats the good teams convincingly. They are the second team since 1970 to win all four games against teams that entered the contest multiple games over .500 by 18-plus points (2014 Patriots) and the first team since the 2007 Patriots with eight wins by 13+ points in their first 12 games.

San Francisco has the looks of a 14-3 team.

Brock Purdy is the MVP

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Purdy had another incredible game in the 49ers’ rout of the Eagles, finishing 19 of 27 for 314 yards with four touchdowns to zero interceptions and a 148.8 passer rating. Purdy has completed 70.2% of his passes for 3,185 yards with 23 touchdowns to six interceptions and a 116.1 passer rating this season, leading the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating.

Why shouldn’t Purdy be MVP? Who cares how much talent he has around him on offense? Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott have that same amount of talent, right? Purdy leads his teams to victories too — convincing ones to boot.

Purdy has the most yards per attempt (9.6) by any quarterback in a team’s first 12 games of a season since Norm Van Brocklin in 1954 (minimum 250 attempts) and is the first quarterback with four games having three-plus passing touchdowns, no interceptions and averaging over 10.0 yards per attempt (per CBS Sports Research).

Purdy’s MVP case is just as good as anyone’s right now. He deserves more credit than he’s getting.

CLEVELAND

Dianna Russini points out that the Browns are still hanging around despite four starting QBs and that the team is giving Coach Kevin Stefanski much of the credit:

The Cleveland Browns organization is thrilled with head coach Kevin Stefanski’s leadership this season. Though there have been some questions over the years, and even suggestions that Cleveland should move on from the 2020 NFL Coach of the Year, Stefanski is here to stay based on conversations with multiple league sources. That seal of approval goes for general manager Andrew Berry too. The pressure was on this past season, and the duo has been able to navigate the choppy waters.

Four different quarterbacks this season and yet the Browns are in playoff contention. Not to mention they lost franchise running back Nick Chubb in September. A new week, a new obstacle for Cleveland yet somehow the Browns are in the postseason hunt. Usually, when the franchise quarterback is out, so are a team’s postseason chances … and hopes.

Look at the Jets. The Bengals. No Aaron Rodgers. No Joe Burrow. Lots of problems. For the Browns? They have found ways to win with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker and will try again with 38-year-old Joe Flacco. From hiring defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and Bubba Ventrone as assistant head coach/special teams coordinator to juggling all these quarterback changes, Stefanski has kept a consistent attitude in the building of “just win” and it’s working. 

PITTSBURGH

QB KENNY PICKETT is going to miss some time.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Another playoff contender won’t have their quarterback for some time.

As first reported by Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett will undergo ankle surgery on Monday morning, PFT has confirmed. The procedure is expected to keep him out for two to four weeks.

Pickett suffered his ankle injury during the first half of Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals. He had come into the game with an ankle issue already on the radar, as he was listed on the injury report throughout the week — though he was a full participant and had no game status. Still, Pickett had his ankle heavily taped at the start of the game.

After being declared out, Pickett was back on the sideline in a walking boot and street clothes.

With Pickett out, Mitch Trubisky is in line to start for the Steelers when they take on the Patriots this Thursday night. The Steelers will then play at Indianapolis, vs. Cincinnati, at Seattle, and at Baltimore to end the regular season.

Pickett has completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,070 yards with six touchdowns and four picks this year.

Trusibky has completed 29-of-49 passes for 273 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in 2023.

HOUSTON

Peter King has CB DEREK STINGLEY, Jr. as one of his Defensive Players of the Week:

Derek Stingley Jr., cornerback, Houston. Two second-half interceptions of Russell Wilson, seven minutes apart, helped the Texans’ tight win over Denver and propelled the Texans to 7-5. The second, six minutes into the fourth quarter, was a graceful pick, with Stingley floating through the air and appearing suddenly in the ball’s path to Courtland Sutton. Stingley has four picks in his last three games.

– – –

Who had three teams making the playoffs from the AFC South when the season started?  Will Brinson of CBSSports.com:

Don’t look now, but here comes the AFC South. The AFC North’s gotten most of the buzz when it comes to sneaking three teams into the postseason, but the South is a better candidate given how things have gone recently with the teams inside this division.

The Texans squared off against Denver in what amounted to a loser leaves town type of match: Sportsline’s projection model had a greater than 40% swing for both teams in terms of playoff odds. And Houston once again came out on top, with the defense making some massive plays late in the game, recording a trio of second-half interceptions off Russell Wilson to seal a 22-17 victory that puts them in prime position to secure a playoff spot in the coming weeks.

Houston is 7-5 now, a shocking record considering the Texans won a total of 11 games the previous three years combined. But maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising — the Texans landed C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks, respectively, and both have been very good for Houston so far this season.

Sunday might not have been Stroud’s best game of the year, but that’s not an insult. Stroud made some really nice throws against a stout Denver defense, he didn’t turn the ball over (although he did fumble once) and despite losing Tank Dell to injury early in the game, managed to produce another 20+ point effort and a victory for Houston.

Anderson recorded a pair of sacks and second-year cornerback Derek Stingley, who’s coming on like gangbusters right now, recorded one of the picks. The Texans young defense is tantalizing from a long-term perspective but they’re also intriguing at the moment, despite getting involved in a slew of shootouts this season.

In theory there should be some rookie wall coming for Stroud at some point but it sure hasn’t materialized in any firm fashion, and we’re already through Week 13. At this point it just stands to reason he’s freaking awesome. The odds back it up, with Stroud having settled in at -10000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. You never want to say anything is over after seeing how Ja’Marr Chase Uno Reversed Mac Jones two years ago, but it stands to reason the race for that award ended several weeks ago given the Texans record, Stroud’s position and his performance.

Houston’s got a MASSIVE matchup against the Colts in Week 18 looming and it’s possible that’s yet another play-in playoff game, thanks to the Colts also finding an impressive level of success under first-year coach Shane Steichen.

Indy winning — the Colts are now 7-5 as well — is all the more impressive considering the Colts lost rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to season-ending surgery early in the year. Forced to turn to Gardner Minshew, the Colts are currently on a four-game winning streak, beating up on some bad competition to position themselves for a spot in the postseason.

The Colts are now just under 70% to make the playoffs with very winnable games against the Bengals and the Steelers on deck. Both Cincy and Pittsburgh will be rolling out backup quarterbacks for those matchups — two more wins and the Colts could virtually guarantee themselves a wild-card berth.

Like the Texans, Indy’s getting it done with a lot of injuries — Jonathan Taylor was missing on Sunday — and with a rookie head coach. Zach Moss carried the run game at times this year, but they couldn’t move the ball on the ground against the Titans. Fortunately, Minshew and Michael Pittman, along with deep threat Alec Pierce, were capable of producing enough offense through the air to propel the Colts to a victory.

The Jaguars didn’t play Sunday, but they look like a strong bet to win as a nine-point favorite against the Bengals in Jacksonville’s first home “Monday Night Football” game since 2011 and they’ll have a chance to really cement South > North with a win on Monday and a matchup against the Browns the following week. Two Jacksonville wins would completely flip the odds for everyone involved, with Cleveland struggling mightily since Deshaun Watson went down.

For years, the AFC South has been the laughingstock of the NFL. Don’t be surprised if the division produces three playoffs teams this year.

– – –

Give the Texans credit – they got two huge decisions absolutely right.  Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the hiring of DeMeco Ryans as coach, prior to the selection of QB C.J. STROUD:

At the end of last season, the Houston Texans were about as low as an NFL team can get.

They fired Lovie Smith, a bad hire to begin with, after one season. That was their second straight one-and-done head coach, following David Culley, another questionable hire. You can’t blame the Texans for making bad hires. It’s not like a candidate with any other options wanted to go there.

There was nothing good about the Texans. The Deshaun Watson debacle. The shockingly awful DeAndre Hopkins trade. Horrendous draft picks. The entire Jack Easterby saga that made the Texans a laughingstock. All the losses. The Texans were the worst franchise in the NFL.

It turned out, the one secret weapon the Texans had was a second-round pick they made in the 2006 NFL Draft.

DeMeco Ryans liked Houston from his time as a linebacker there. The feeling was mutual. Ryans was one of the more popular players in Texans history, and a top candidate after some good years as San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator. Had he been drafted by another team many years ago, it’s likely that Ryans wouldn’t have looked at the Texans. Why would he have? He had a bright future and the Texans did not.

Just keep in mind, if your NFL team is at the bottom this season, that it can change fast. The Texans got lucky that Ryans had good feelings about Houston and that outweighed all of the pitfalls of the organization. Houston also got lucky that the Carolina Panthers took Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud. The Texans took an immediate star at quarterback with the second overall draft pick. Though, you also have to credit the coaching staff for his historic development.

And now the Texans might be going to the playoffs. Houston got a huge 22-17 win over the Denver Broncos, which will age very well in the AFC wild-card race. Houston held off Denver’s final drive, picking off Russell Wilson in the end zone with less than 10 seconds remaining to seal the win. Houston had a lead slipping away, but got the play it needed to win. That’s a headstrong win by a young team with a very good coach. The Texans are 7-5 this season. That’s probably more than twice as many wins as most people predicted for them.

Even if the Texans don’t make it to the playoffs this season, the future is bright. Ryans was a great candidate, a former player who related to his players tremendously well and was a great football mind from a strong Kyle Shanahan tree. He made a great hire at offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, also from the Shanahan tree.

The Texans had a lot of holes on the roster, but some young players have emerged, Stroud has covered up plenty of those issues and Ryans and his staff have done the rest. Young building blocks like receiver Nico Collins, defensive end Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had big games in the win over Denver. Houston is a well-prepared team that is putting its players in the best positions to succeed every week. That’s coaching.

It’s almost too good to be true, a popular linebacker from the team’s past returning to completely turn around a franchise that had sunk to the bottom of the NFL. Sounds like a good NFL Coach of the Year candidate.

MIAMI

The Dolphins made history with their thumping of the Commanders:

@NFL_Scorigami

MIA 45 – 15 WSH

Final

That’s Scorigami!! It’s the 1082nd unique final score in NFL history.

It’s the 7^th Scorigami of the season.  The others are :

Week 12             Denver Broncos 29, Cleveland Browns 12

Week 9               Houston Texans 39, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37

Week 8               Dallas Cowboys 43, Los Angeles Rams 20

Week 3               Philadelphia Eagles 25, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11

Miami Dolphins 70, Denver Broncos 20

Week 1               Baltimore Ravens 25, Houston Texans 9

– – –

The AFC East dominance of the Dolphins:

The Patriots have scored 47 points in their five-game losing streak. Miami scored 45 Sunday in Washington.

The Jets, over their last seven games and one quarter, have scored four offensive touchdowns in their last 88 offensive drives. Miami scored five touchdowns in its nine drives at Washington.

– – –

With the aid of QB TUA TAGOVIALOA, WR TYREEK HILL continues on his record pace.  Garrett Podell of CBSSports.com:

Back in August, Miami Dolphins All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill vowed to become the first player in NFL history with 2,000 receiving yards in a single season.

Hill has since backed up the talk with the most receiving yards over the first 11 games of a season in the Super Bowl era — since 1966 — with 1,324 entering Week 13. That put him on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record of 1,964, with Hill on pace for 2,046 ahead of his matchup at the Washington Commanders.

Hill’s massive performance Sunday at Washington continues to keep him on schedule with his boast, and it allowed him to break an NFL record in the process. Hill totaled 157 receiving yards and two touchdown grabs — one for 78 yards and another for 60 yards — on five catches in a 45-15 victory.

That gives Hill his fifth game with over 150 receiving yards and at least a touchdown in 2023, breaking the NFL single-season record for the most such games. Hill broke a five-way tie for this record, which included Hall of Famers Lance Alworth (four such games in 1965) and Don Maynard (four such games in 1968).

Hill also rewrote the Dolphins’ single-season record books as well on Sunday. He now has eight games of over 100 yards this season, tying the Miami single-season record of eight set by Mark Duper in 1986. Hill will have five games remaining this season to take sole possession of the record, something that feels like an inevitability. 

If Hill can cap off his record-breaking 2023 with 2,000 or more receiving yards, he very well may be joining Alworth and Maynard in Canton, Ohio at the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day.

NEW ENGLAND

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com wargames the end game for Coach Bill Belichick:

The 2023 Patriots have landed squarely in the “hot mess” category. The latest indignity for the proud franchise happened several days ago, when its Week 15 game against the Chiefs became the first ever flex out of Monday night.

Yes, the Patriots are so bad that the NFL removed a Patrick Mahomes game from prime time.

The NFL can flex but they can’t hide the Patriots. On Thursday night, New England will play the Steelers on Amazon. The Patriots are currently so devoid of talent that promos for the contest during Thursday’s Seahawks-Cowboys game featured an image of coach Bill Belichick.

Then, on Christmas Eve, the Broncos host the Patriots in a standalone game on NFL Network. Denver will be the contender; the Patriots will be the spoiler. Millions will opt to watch George Bailey jump off a bridge and/or Ralphie Parker shoot his eye out.

The season mercifully ends in Week 18, with a home game against the Jets. It’s fitting that the team Belichick coached for basically a day will be the last team he faces in his 24-year run in New England.

So what happens after that game ends? It’s become a foregone conclusion that Belichick will be gone. Will he be fired? Will he quit? Will he retire? Will the two sides mutually part?

The other option for the Patriots would be to hold Belichick unless and until another team calls the Patriots in an effort to trade for his contract. But the Patriots will need to get on with their own search for a new coach. That’s why the most likely outcome could be a separation described as something other than a firing, so that the Patriots can later get compensation if/when another team expresses an interest in hiring Belichick.

Such a move would include some risk for the Patriots. If they want too much for Belichick, he could always say, “Fine. I’ll keep coaching the Patriots.” And Belichick is smart enough to want to minimize any and all draft picks that another team would have to surrender to get him, because that in turn limits the resources he has available to him in his next stop.

For that reason alone, Belichick will want to be a free agent. The Patriots will want compensation. Belichick’s only play to avoid his next team giving up compensation would be to dig in his heels and say, “I’m not leaving.”

The end result could be a game of high-stakes chicken between Belichick and owner Robert Kraft that will be far more compelling than any game the Patriots have played this year.

Of course, that’s a pretty low bar. As Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers accurately observed after last Sunday’s loss to the Giants, the 2023 Patriots are indeed “ass.”

– – –

OC Bill O’Brien was supposed to be a huge improvement over last year’s Matt Patricia/Joe Judge collaboration.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Patriots are playing a brand of football unseen in the NFL in 85 years.

New England has lost its last three games by scores of 10-6, 10-7 and 6-0. That makes the Patriots the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to lose three straight games while allowing 10 or fewer points in all three of them.

That’s a rare type of offensive incompetence. Usually, if your defense can hold the opposing team to 10 or fewer points, you’re going to win: NFL teams are 54-0 this season when allowing 10 or fewer points, other than the Patriots in the last three weeks.

Low-scoring slugfests in which teams won by scores like 10-6, 10-7 or 6-0 used to be commonplace in the NFL. But that was a long, long time ago. A student of NFL history like Bill Belichick can surely appreciate the significance of his team doing something unseen since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t like it.

We should arrange a game between the Patriots and Iowa.

Bill Belichick after the game, also per Michael David Smith:

Amid increasing talk that Bill Belichick is in his final season as the head coach of the New England Patriots, Belichick himself says he’s looking no further than this week’s game.

Belichick was asked after Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, “Do you want to stay here and keep coaching the Patriots?”

“I’m looking forward to this week and playing the Steelers,” Belichick answered.

This 2-10 Patriots team is the worst team Belichick has ever coached, even going back to his unsuccessful stint in Cleveland as head coach of the Browns. Realistically, it’s hard to believe Patriots owner Robert Kraft would be willing to bring Belichick back for another year even if Belichick wants to come back.

But Belichick isn’t saying whether he wants to come back. At age 71, Belichick may be nearing the end, but his focus is on to Pittsburgh.

THIS AND THAT

THE CFB

The DB understands that when you have five Power conferences and four spots someone is going to get left out, especially when all five champions were “worthy” with only 1 loss among the whole bunch that wasn’t inflicted by another champion.

Initially, the DB bought into the idea that the SEC is traditionally the strongest conference.  We would think that a conference that has produced the last four champions and had at least one team in the CFP final in each of the last eight years should probably have a spot reserved for its champion.

Certainly, that was going to be the case if the two-time defending champion Georgia completed another undefeated season.  But they did not, and on Saturday night Alabama was the better team.

But Alabama didn’t just take Georgia’s spot.  They dragged Texas in as well, by the logic that Texas beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, so they can’t be kept out.

If Georgia had put a two-TD whipping on Alabama, no one would have seriously argued that Florida State, the #4 team should be leapfrogged by Texas, after the Seminoles put Louisville 10 points in their rearview mirror.

So not only did Alabama rise, Texas went all the way from #7 to #3.  Sure, Texas looked great against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in its last two games.  But OSU stumbled into the Big 12 title game with recent results that included a 42-points loss to UCF and a scrambling win over a marginal BYU team.  In November, Texas had a 3-point home win over Kansas State and a 3-point win at TCU.  So probably more fortunate in their last two opponents than a true powerhouse.

We also heard all weekend that Alabama had shown tremendous improvement from early in the season, but while that may be true, it partly was because the Tide ebbed so much in the early going.  All eyes were on nice wins over LSU and Kentucky, but they beat the Aggies by six, the Razorbacks by three and Auburn by a miracle.

And, Florida State played two games without Jordan Travis.  While Alabama was escaping Auburn, the Noles beat Florida by nine.  Then they beat a worthy Louisville team, 16-6.  We wonder if the margin of the Louisville game had been the same, but the score more lively, say 27-17, would FSU still be excluded.

And finally, we wound if the AP poll could still be relevant.  What if Alabama emerges from the CFP games with a trophy, but say 14-13 over Michigan and 17-14 over Texas.  Meanwhile in the Orange Bowl, Florida State overwhelms Georgia, the benchmark for Alabama’s inclusion, 35-10.  As an AP voter, would you be tempted to send your first place vote to FSU?

Again with so many teams and so few games, the DB understands why a Committee was needed (also that five conferences, four champions problem).   Still, can you imagine if the Wild Card teams were determined by a Committee of eletes?  Or if a Committee could take away the spot and home game that will go the NFC South champion and replace it with a team with a better resumé?

– – –

Other thoughts –

Booger McFarland:

@awfulannouncing

Booger McFarland is not happy that Alabama got into the CFP over an undefeated Florida State team.

“To me, this is a travesty to the sport…One team has a loss, and that’s Alabama. One doesn’t in Florida State.”

Not a word about Florida State from Peter King, his angst is over Georgia.

a. Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama. Understandable. But Georgia wins 29 in a row, including two championship games (by a combined 73 points), then loses the SEC title game to the great Saban by three points and is left out. Seems wrong. But I get it—how can Alabama not be in after winning the SEC title, and how can Texas not be in after winning the Big 12 and winning by 10 at Alabama and going 13-1?

Chris Branch of The Athletic:

Maybe we should’ve expected this

It was so nice to be less jaded about my favorite sport.

While the introduction of NIL over the last few years has not been a perfect solution to college football’s long-standing power imbalance, it did give players demonstrable earning power overnight.  For a sport that’d profited off unpaid athletes’ bodies for decades, going from nothing to something made us fans all feel better. At least a little.

Yet here we are today, 24 hours after an undefeated Power 5 champion got left out of the College Football Playoff in favor of the one-loss SEC champ. It was a move that felt so brazen, so wrong, so unjust. College football has always been a beauty contest, but the Playoff was supposed to ensure we’d never again have a split title, at very least.

The veil that’d protected us from the true nature of this sport is off and, honestly, I feel dumb for not thinking this would happen. Two things I can’t get out of my head:

We are beholden to a product, not a just system. There is no logical stance that ends up with you shunning an undefeated Florida State — injured QB or not — and putting in 12-1 Alabama. This is about money, ESPN’s ratings and a full-strength Alabama against a full-strength Michigan. It’s so disheartening to see the Seminoles win every single game and get nothing better than an Orange Bowl. That QB, Jordan Travis, even apologized for not breaking his leg sooner so that the selection committee could’ve better evaluated Florida State without him. Just … sheesh. What are we doing here?

We think of the NFL as a league in which profits matter above all … yet this would’ve never happened in the NFL. There is a codified system that rewards teams for the games they win and lose. It is a simple and effective system. Joe Webb and Ryan Lindley have started NFL playoff games. Worse product? Sometimes, maybe. Fairer system? Absolutely. It’s easier to support that.

Also: Am I the only who thinks FSU, even with a backup quarterback, could’ve played a close game against Michigan with nearly a month of prep time?

Sadly, we won’t care on New Year’s Day when Alabama and Michigan are tied late, or something like that. It will probably be a fantastic game. But it shouldn’t be a thing that exists. Maybe the 12-team playoff fixes this? The committee better hope so.

This from Clay Travis:

@ClayTravis

If the college football committee were made up of Vegas oddsmakers and they were seeding the best four teams in the country, this would be their four in order: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Alabama 4. Ohio State You may now all fight in the mentions.

Not sure how he KNOWS this, although we get where he is coming from.

COACHING HIRES 2024

Thoughts from Mike Sando of The Athletic:

The 2024 head coach hiring cycle is fast approaching, and with it the search for the next Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay.

The favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year was never a primary play caller before leading the Detroit Lions back from the dead into prime playoff positioning. Will Dan Campbell’s success affect the 2024 hiring cycle? Will Campbell be a one-off? Are there enough offensive play callers to go around?

Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper reportedly plans to target an offensive-minded coach to replace the offensive-minded coach he just fired.

Teams over the past five hiring cycles have chosen 23 coaches with backgrounds on offense, 11 with backgrounds on defense and one special-teams coach (Joe Judge).

Deciding in advance you’re only interested in candidates with a specific background reduces the probability a franchise will find the best candidate. That is notable for Tepper, who has spoken frequently about playing the probabilities.

“The very model that the owners desire is probably the hardest one to achieve success with,” an exec from a team with an established coach said. “It’s hard to find the coach who can do it all well. Now, it gives you the best upside. Kyle Shanahan gives you the best upside, but it’s the hardest one to make work because it is so hard to do.”

Owners fear losing a successful offensive play caller to head coaching jobs elsewhere, so they hire offensive-minded head coaches.

But the most successful team-quarterback marriages over the past two decades featured coaches with backgrounds on defense and/or special teams: Bill Belichick with Tom Brady in New England, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson in Seattle, John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco in Baltimore, Mike Tomlin with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

These teams enjoyed far greater championship success than the teams that paired offensive-minded coaches with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Why? Those coaches also were not play callers. They coached the full team and set the culture.

Scoring is down. So many offenses are struggling. Top offensive assistants have already been hired away from Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams, Shanahan’s 49ers and Nick Sirianni’s Eagles.

The search for the next elite offensive play-calling head coach will continue.

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stands out. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy should be in the mix. Perhaps the Cincinnati Bengals’ Brian Callahan will get a chance. Houston’s Bobby Slowik could draw interest after a strong initial season as a coordinator. Miami’s Frank Smith is finishing his second season with the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel.

Some of the most successful veteran defensive coordinators generate almost no buzz.

Steve Spagnuolo has won three Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator and has the Chiefs’ defense playing its best football in years.

Jim Schwartz, another former head coach with a Super Bowl pedigree as defensive coordinator, has had the Cleveland Browns’ defense in the top five statistically.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense under coordinator Teryl Austin recently allowed no more than 20 points in seven successive games, the team’s longest streak within a season since 2004.

Dan Quinn, Brian Flores, Raheem Morris, Ejiro Evero and Lou Anarumo are among the defensive coordinators who could get interviews.

2024 DRAFT

Peter King points out that two of the top QBs in the draft are about as old as two guys who seem to have been around the NFL for a while:

Numbers Game

Four quarterbacks, born within seven months of each other, will enter the 2024 NFL season at age 24 with wildly varying levels of experience

.

                                                                                                            Games Played

                                                Age                                          College                         NFL

TREVOR LAWRENCE          24 years, 2 monts                          40                               48

BROCK PURDY                   23 years, 11 months                       48                              24

BO NIX                                 23 years, 9 months                         60                                0

MICHAEL PENIX, Jr.           23 years, 7 months                         47                                0

It’s a great example of how college football eligibility rules have changed the college and pro games massively. In five seasons of eligibility, Nix played 10 or more games each year at Auburn and then Oregon. In parts of six years at Indiana and Washington, Penix threw 1,596 passes. Now we’ll see if their experience in college football makes a big difference when they start their NFL careers.

We note how oddly ordinary the career of Purdy was.  No transfers, no redshirt.  Graduated high school and went to one college for four years, using a year of eligibility in each.