AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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If The Season Ended Today In the NFC:
Arizona West 10-2 1 6-2
Green Bay North 9-3 1 7-2
Tampa Bay South 9-3 1 6-3
Dallas East 8-4 1 6-1
LA Rams WC1 8-4 2 5-3
Washington WC2 6-6 2 5-2
San Francisco WC3 6-6 3 5-5
Philadelphia 6-7 3 4-4
Minnesota 5-7 2 4-4
Carolina 5-7 2 3-5
Atlanta 5-7 3 2-6
New Orleans 5-7 4 4-5
The Cardinals are the first team to 10 wins, but Green Bay would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Buccaneers are now four games ahead in the NFC South with five to play. We think they clinch with a win over the Bills and losses by Carolina and New Orleans.
The WFT has moved up to 6th, but with two games to climb up over the Rams that would seem to be their ceiling. Atlanta visits Carolina this week for a game that will have a lot to say about which of those teams might be an NFC South Wild Card. Note, the Falcons are done with the Buccaneers while the Panthers have two games left with Tampa Bay.
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
Peter King on the first win for the Lions and how they have played hard all season for Dan Campbell:
There won’t be much hand-wringing about the mistakes, at least this morning. Detroit won a football game 29-27 over the Vikings on the last play of the game, an 11-yard touchdown pass from jittery Jared Goff to rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown with zeroes on the clock. It was the first win of Campbell’s coaching career. “It only took 12 weeks, huh? No, 13!” he said from his coach’s office at Ford Field post-game.
But a few things happened on the way to 1-10-1 that showed the team is still playing for him and wants him to succeed. The Lions posted a video on the post-game celebration in the locker room. Last year, it was clear the players did not like Matt Patricia. This year, on this day, it seems clear they do like Campbell, with the whooping and hollering and drenching when the players gave him the game ball.
I thought it was telling that, when Goff was looking for someone to hug after throwing the winning TD pass, he found Campbell, who has been tough on him—and rightfully so. Goff has been very shaky since coming over to be the heir to Matthew Stafford. But Campbell hugged Goff hard. It was a cool moment.
“What’d you say to Goff right then?” I said.
“I said, ‘That’s the way to throw it when we needed it, m—–f—–!’ ” Campbell said.
I laughed and Campbell said: “That is exactly what I said.”
“He had a couple of rough throws,” Campbell said. “For him to come back on that last drive and march us down the field and do what he did, it says a lot. He needed it. We needed it, more importantly.”
Goff will need a lot more drives like the 14-play, 75-yard TD drive with no timeouts there to ensure his future in Detroit. It’s no sure thing he will. But Sunday was a good day for the win, and for the community the Lions represent. Forty-five minutes north of the stadium is Oxford, Mich., where four Oxford High students were murdered and seven others wounded in a school shooting the Lions remembered Sunday. Campbell gave the school a game ball from the win and paid tribute to the dead and wounded at his post-game press conference. And safety Jalen Elliott, who wears the same number—42—that the murdered Oxford football star Tate Myre wore, paid respect to Myre himself. He wore his own Lions jersey pregame with “MYRE” replacing ‘ELLIOTT” on his back nameplate.
“I wanted to pay tribute to the family and pay homage to the community, with the family watching, hopefully,” said Elliott, who is from Richmond, Va., and went to Notre Dame. “I didn’t want to draw attention to myself. This was not only for Oxford, not only for Michigan, but for families across the country. I have three siblings. One is 16 and in high school now. My parents are both in education, in school systems. I want to support schools. Hopefully we can come together and take a step in the right direction.”
– – –
This from King:
Before Sunday, the last time Jared Goff won a football game for a coach not named Sean McVay was six years ago: Dec. 29, 2015, in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas, on a Tuesday afternoon. The Sonny Dykes-coached Cal Bears beat Air Force.
In the 72 months since then, Goff’s teams are 1-17-1 in non-McVay games (coached by Jeff Fisher, Dan Campbell).
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MINNESOTA
Dan Graziano of ESPN.com ponders the job security, or lack thereof, for Coach Mike Zimmer:
Mike Zimmer is in his final weeks as Vikings coach
Minnesota’s up-and-down season hit a new low Sunday, as Zimmer’s Vikings became the first team this season to lose to the Lions. The game was loaded with questionable decisions. Zimmer’s defense was way too lenient with the Lions even before allowing a 14-play, game-winning drive in the final 1:50.
The 5-7 Vikings are only a couple of weeks removed from an impressive victory over the Packers, and they’ve had some painful near misses this season, but there’s no excusing this latest loss, and questions about whether Zimmer is on the hot seat as his eighth season in Minnesota enters its final stretch are certainly warranted.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. To be clear: I am not saying Zimmer is going to be fired, either now or after the season. The NFC playoff race is a jumble, and the Vikings could potentially be a couple of good weeks away from being right back in the picture. It’s too soon to know for sure what the team will do once the season ends.
But it’s certainly realistic to think they would make a change. With quarterback Kirk Cousins entering the final year of his contract, it’s possible there could be a lot of changes in Minnesota. Sunday’s loss to the Lions was a microcosm of a season that tilts toward disappointing, and if the Vikings don’t finish with a flourish, it’s entirely possible the Zimmer era could end.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Peter King says Emperor Ezekiel is not as well dressed as RB TONY POLLARD:
I think Tony Pollard is better than Ezekiel Elliott. There. I said it.
I think that may be partially because Elliott’s banged up. But Pollard’s just more dangerous, has been so for some time, and Elliott (zero 70-yard rushing games in the last seven games) has stopped being the unstoppable horse the Cowboys grew to rely on three and four years ago. Since opening day 2020: Elliott, 4.18 yards per rush; Pollard, 4.99. After Pollard’s 58-yard TD sprint in New Orleans late in the third quarter gave Dallas a 20-10 lead, the Cowboys needed to be about whittling down the clock, but the next four drives totalled 6 minutes, 29 seconds, and Elliott totalled five carries for 21 yards. Just not good enough.
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NEW YORK GIANTS
Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com is no fan of the Joe Judge Giants:
The Giants’ offense is wretched and Freddie Kitchens ain’t changing much. Joe Judge continues to make bizarre timeout decisions and punting decisions. If you thought 264 total yards of offense last week against the Eagles was bad, how about 250 against Miami! And you can also check the box of the first-round QB injured again, and the first-round RB being a nonfactor yet again. Nothing trending the way you would want approaching the final stretch of his second season at the helm, and not much empirical evidence that he has the makings of a quality NFL head coach. Yeah, there is a lot of chatter about him being safe, but there is still plenty of football to be played and few signs of life from this bunch. I’d say stay tuned.
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PHILADELPHIA
Peter King on Philadelphia’s domination of the middle of the 2022 draft:
Per Tankathon early this morning, Philadelphia’s going to have a lot of early draft capital to spend next April. The Eagles are projected to pick 12th, 13th and 17th next April in the first round, though clearly that will change significantly by regular season’s end Jan. 9. The Eagles have Miami’s one and their own one, and have all but clinched having Indy’s one. Carson Wentz, traded to the Colts last offseason, had to play 75 percent of the Colts snaps this year, or 70 percent if the Colts make the playoffs, to turn a 2022 second-round pick from Indy to a first-rounder. On Sunday, Wentz played 62 snaps against Houston, and with four games left, he might have already qualified for the 75 percent. Per Jimmy Kempski’s fun Wentz snap count tracker in Philly Voice, Wentz, based on the Colts’ average snaps per game on offense, needs to play about 854 snaps this year to get to 75 percent. Wentz, after Sunday, has played 854.
Barring something really weird, the Eagles now will have their own first-round pick, and those from the Dolphins and Colts, and all could be in the top 20 of the round. In all, the Eagles will have nine picks in the first five rounds: three in the first, single picks in the second, third and fourth rounds, and three in the fifth. With quarterbacks not projected to be super-high in round one, the Eagles would likely be able to sit or maneuver slightly to draft one … or package three attractive picks to get a Deshaun Watson or to chase a Russell Wilson.
– – –
A team always wonders – can it win a game with the back-up? The Cardinals found out they could with COLT McCOY. And now the Eagles know they can win with GARDNER MINSHEW II – if they are playing the Jets anyway. Peter King:
Minshew’s one incredible story. Hasn’t played the whole year, and he was forced into action at the Jets on Sunday because of an ankle injury to Jalen Hurts. He strafed the Jets early, completing 11 of 11 with two TD passes to Dallas Goedert. For the day, he completed 80 percent of his throws, and, amazingly, ended each of his first eight drives with either touchdowns or field goals. “There’s nothing like this feeling,” Minshew said.
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WASHINGTON
WFT has been winning since the return of TE LOGAN THOMAS. Now, they will have to survive without him. Ethan Cadeaux of NBCSports.com:
Washington’s victory over the Las Vegas Raiders came at a hefty price.W
Tight end Logan Thomas is believed to have likely torn his ACL and MCL, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Thomas will have an MRI on Monday to confirm.
Thomas will almost certainly miss the remainder of the season if further testing proves that he did tear both his ACL and MCL.
Thomas’ injury came midway through the fourth quarter, as Raiders’ defensive end Yannick Ngakoue went low on the tight end to avoid his block. Ngakoue’s shoulder went directly into Thomas’ knee. Thomas immediately fell to the ground in pain and took his helmet off before limping off the field next to trainers.
Sunday’s game was just Thomas’ second week back from a hamstring injury, one that forced him to miss six games of the season already. Thomas led Washington in receiving on Sunday, hauling in three catches for 48 yards, including an acrobatic one-handed touchdown grab.
The injury comes at a brutal time for Washington, as the club has won four straight games and is in the thick of the NFC playoff race with five games to play. Washington currently holds the No. 6 seed in the NFC and is just two games behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.
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NFC SOUTH
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CAROLINA
A quickly-certified genius after his work with QB JOE BURROW at LSU, Joe Brady finds himself unemployed today. ESPN.com:
The Carolina Panthers have fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady with five games left in their season, the team announced Sunday.
Panthers coach Matt Rhule said in a statement that he met with Brady on Sunday morning and “informed him that I have decided to make a change.”
“I’m very grateful to him for his time and effort in helping us get established over this past year and a half,” Rhule said.
Senior offensive assistant Jeff Nixon will take over the offensive coordinator duties with the rest of the offensive coaching staff for the remainder of the season.
The Panthers, who are on their bye this week, are ranked 28th in the NFL with 308.7 yards per game and 23rd in scoring at 19.7 points each game.
In October, Rhule said he was sticking with Brady but wanted him to commit more to the running game. Brady, however, never committed to the running game to the level Rhule preferred (at least 30 attempts per game).
The Panthers started the season 3-0 but are currently 5-7. Star running back Christian McCaffrey is out for the season with an ankle injury while the team has started three different quarterbacks. Sam Darnold struggled after a strong start in the first three games and is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. Cam Newton is now starting at quarterback in his second stint with the franchise.
Brady joined the Panthers in January 2020 after helping LSU win a national championship as the Tigers’ passing game coordinator.
Reaction from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
It’s unclear whether it was planned or inadvertent. Regardless, the Carolina Panthers have found a brand new place to dump bad news.
Forget about the late-afternoon hours on a Friday. With the NFL constantly offering up a fresh collection of bright, shiny objects during football season, why not pull the sheet off a piece of bad news while everyone is paying attention to those objects that are shining brightly?
The Panthers waited until 20 minutes after the start of the early games in Week 13 to announce the firing of offensive coordinator Joe Brady. It caused the move to not get the attention and scrutiny it otherwise would have received if it had happened, for example, last Monday morning, with 13 days until the next game.
That’s the most confusing aspect of the move. It happened halfway into the team’s annual two-week playing break. Unless the decision was made and not announced early last week, if gives Jeff Nixon less time to prepare to take over the offense than he would have had.
Regardless, it’s a sign of dysfunction in Charlotte, and it invites speculation as to what will come next. Some think that coach Matt Rhule already is on borrowed time. Maybe Rhule needs to string together some wins to keep that from happening.
And while the buyout would be significant, owner David Tepper doesn’t seem to be someone who prolongs a situation once he knows it has gone south. From dumping Teddy Bridgewater after his first year to essentially dumping Sam Darnold during his first year, Tepper falls in and out of love quickly — and he doesn’t wait to file for divorce. If Tepper has concluded that Rhule isn’t who Tepper thought he’d be and if Tepper thinks he can get an upgrade, he’ll do it. Whatever it costs, whatever it takes. He’ll do it.
He has said that the NFL is set up for every team to go .500, and that bending mediocrity in a given franchise’s advantage hinges on having a great coach, G.M., and quarterback. If Tepper has already concluded that Rhule belongs in the “not great” category, it’s just a matter of time before he’s in the “not employed” category, too.
This tweet:
Justis Mosqueda (NFL Owner)
@JuMosq
Joe Brady eating this instead of whoever hand-picked Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Cam Newton to be the team’s starting quarterbacks in like an 18-month stretch is kinda wild
Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com hints at the hand of owner David Tepper:
Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady never took hold at the NFL level, and never sold ownership that he was ready for the job head coach Matt Rhule bestowed upon him. It’s long been a simmering issue there, with the offense yet to take hold and no quarterback emerging as the answer through two seasons, and I’m far from shocked he is out at the bye week. The bigger question is where do they go from here at QB and OC, long term, and just how good a match Rhule is with owner David Tepper. As I have been reporting, college programs swoon over Rhule, and a slow start in 2022 will only lead to more rumblings about the overall viability of this regime. Not sure how much patience there will be without major gains in 2022.
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TAMPA BAY
Peter King makes it clear he would fire WR ANTONIO BROWN – and he also has some details on the scam:
What Bruce Arians told me when the Bucs signed the troubled Brown 13-plus months ago has been on my mind the past few days. “If he screws up one time, he’s gone,” Arians told me in November 2020. Let’s see. By my count, Brown has screwed up three times since those words were spoken.
1. Brown used a fake vaccine card to confirm that he’d been vaccinated. That’s a federal offense.
2. Brown spent multiple weeks—as much as four months—around his team pretending to be vaccinated. Among those he would be near almost every day are the 69-year-old Arians, who had prostate cancer in 2007 and has had skin cancer; and offensive assistant Tom Moore, who is 83. Greg Auman of The Athletic read Arians’ post-Super Bowl book “A Season in the Sun,” and found a passage that quoted Arians telling his players: “If any of you make me or Tom Moore sick, I have a gun and I will shoot you in the kneecaps.” Arians and Moore can’t be happy that Brown passed himself off as vaxxed—and imagine the fury of their families.
3. Brown’s scheme to use the fake card began “unraveling,” according to a story in the Wall Street Journal posted Sunday by Louise Radnofsky and Andrew Beaton, when the league discovered the card purported to show a vaccine issued 90 minutes away from Tampa. The paper said Brown told investigators he went to a far-away vax center because he didn’t want to be recognized, and because he didn’t want to be around teammates. Then the investigators discovered two other teammates had cards with the same vax data from the same vax site on the same day. With so much at stake—his employment with the Super Bowl champions and his friend Tom Brady—Brown thought he could get away with this. And maybe he will.
The Bucs say they’ll have nothing to say till Brown’s suspension is up and he is eligible to return Dec. 26 against Carolina. What must be going through the minds of Arians and GM Jason Licht? At times, Brown has seemed Brady’s favorite receiver, and the Bucs, 9-3 with five games to go, have a legitimate chance to repeat as champs. Might they wait till Brown is eligible and see where their receiver group is then—see if they really need Brown? Might they think the media clamor will die down over the next two weeks, and they’ll be able to fold Brown back into the team with an I-am-truly-sorry press conference by Brown when he’s eligible to play? We’ll learn a lot about the Bucs, and their ethos, in the next couple of weeks.
Andrew Beaton of the Wall Street Journal seems to be a favored leak recipient of the NFL. He gets the details of Brown’s duplicity and he got Jon Gruden’s comments about DeMaurice Smith.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com hears the Buccaneers have heard the demands of the media and may not hold on to Brown, revealed to be a federal criminal, when his unpaid suspension ends:
They’ve got time to make a decision, and they’re going to take advantage of the time they have.
Per a league source, the Buccaneers are considering cutting receiver Antonio Brown in the aftermath of the news that he supplied the team and the league with a fake vaccination card.
When Brown joined the team in 2020, coach Bruce Arians told Peter King, “He screws up one time, he’s gone.” Speaking to reporters on Friday, Arians admitted that the situation “pisses me off,” and “nothing has been decided” regarding Brown and safety Mike Edwards, both of whom have been suspended three games.
They’re eligible to return on December 20, the day after Tampa’s Week 15 Sunday night game against the Saints.
That’s fifteen days for the Bucs to make a decision about Brown and Edwards. And it’s possible, in theory, that the Bucs cut Brown and keep Edwards, since Edwards didn’t arrive with the same one-false-move warning as Brown did.
There’s another reason not to dump Brown now, if the Bucs have already decided that they will (if they have, they’re keeping it close to the vest). If released now, he’d pass through waivers and then become a free agent. He could land with another team, and that other team could send him a playbook and film and otherwise commence the process of getting him up to speed before Week 16. By waiting to release Brown, Brown’s next team will have less time to get him ready to go.
The X factor in all of this, of course, is quarterback Tom Brady. He wanted Brown in Tampa Bay, despite a variety of off-field issues that made him radioactive to most teams. Brady may want the Bucs to give Brown a second chance, since having Brown on the field gives Brady his best chance at getting Super Bowl victory No. 8. And that’s something that will be remembered far longer than Brown’s misadventures with a fake vaccination card.
Florio, like others, seems to believe that Brown is tainted beyond redemption as a Buccaneer after his latest escapade – but fair game for another team to sign without rebuke.
– – –
In a year without a dominant candidate, is QB TOM BRADY sliding towards another MVP? Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:
Brady’s day in Atlanta wasn’t perfect. He threw a hideous interception inside his own 10-yard line right before halftime that the Falcons returned for a touchdown to cut Tampa Bay’s lead to three points. But Brady more than redeemed himself. He was a whopping 38-for-51 for 368 yards and four touchdown passes in a 30-17 victory that widened the Buccaneers’ division lead to four games with five to play. The Bucs obviously came out with a pass-heavy game plan in this one. And with just a small handful of exceptions, Brady executed it with precision.
Tampa Bay is 9-3 and on the cusp of a division title that eluded the Bucs even last season, when they went on to win Super Bowl LV.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Sunday was Brady’s sixth game this season with at least four touchdown passes. This is the sixth time in NFL history that a player has had six games with at least four touchdown passes. The other five times, that player won MVP. So at this point, it would be bucking history to not give it to Brady.
Moreover, a lot of his competition has faltered of late. Kyler Murray has played at an MVP level when he has been on the field, but he just missed three games and Arizona went 2-1 without him. Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes have all had their struggles. Aaron Rodgers missed a game because after testing positive for COVID-19.
Brady’s closest competition might be Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who makes an impressive case (18 total touchdowns, 1,348 rushing yards). But if you think a running back is beating a quarterback in an MVP race if it’s at all close, you don’t know much about the history of the MVP award.
Unsaid by Graziano is that some of the 50 MVP voters were repulsed by AARON RODGERS finessing an untruth to them about vaccination.
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
RB TRENTON CANNON had to stay in Seattle for observation. Nick Wagoner ofESPN.com:
San Francisco 49ers running back Trenton Cannon departed Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks with a concussion after a scary collision on the game’s opening kickoff.
Coach Kyle Shanahan said after the 49ers’ loss that Cannon, who was in stable condition, would stay overnight at a hospital for observation but that he had been cleared from other injuries aside from the concussion.
Cannon, who is one of San Francisco’s primary special teams players, was chasing down Seahawks returner DeeJay Dallas when he collided with 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga. On the play, Cannon attempted to tackle Dallas from one side as Hufanga converged from the other.
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SEATTLE
WR TYLER LOCKETT talks about a team meeting that may have saved a semblance of the Seahawks season. Gregg Bell of the Tacoma News-Tribune:
Stuck on just one win in the last two months, the sunken Seahawks had their usual, Saturday meeting the night before a game.
Tyler Lockett, though, wanted to talk about something new.
“We had one of those hard talks,” teammate Carlos Dunlap said. TOP VIDEOS Skip Ad ×
Lockett asked his Seahawks teammates to think inside themselves. To think beyond all the noise about this 3-8 team’s failings. About what their future may or may not hold. About these final six games of a lost season being such an unfamiliar situation for everyone around this franchise, one that’s been to the playoffs eight of the last nine years with two Super Bowls and the Pacific Northwest’s only NFL title in that span.
“Last night, Tyler did a really nice job in the meeting with us,” Pete Carroll said Sunday. “He had a chance to bring up something that he wanted to talk about. We gave him the opportunity. He did a great job with our guys, about hanging together, and about why we are connected, and why we are what we are.
“It was really cool. “I think it had something to do with today.”
“Today” was just the Seahawks’ second win in eight games, a frantic, wild, 30-23 outlasting of their own offense and the previously rolling San Francisco 49ers, their NFC West rivals. Briefly down injured in the end zone then in the blue observation tent behind Seattle’s bench in the first half, Lockett returned and had a team-high seven catches for 68 yards. His exquisite touchdown catch on which he looked over one shoulder, then his other, while Russell Wilson’s pass was in flight to him in tight coverage into the end zone was a display of coordination only Lockett and few other NFL wide receivers can pull off.
“Really special play,” Wilson said.
The stupendous score gave Seattle the lead for the first time and for good, 30-23 with 2:28 left in the third quarter.
But according to Carroll and Seahawks teammates, what Lockett said the night before taking over the team meeting at the Seahawks’ eastside Seattle hotel did plenty more.
“(Carroll) just basically made it an open floor for everybody to communicate their why,” Dunlap, the veteran defensive end, said, “and why we sacrifice what we do for this game, why we continue to work and fight for this game when the season is going the way it is. Why we are here. How did we get here? Where we came from. Who are we doing it for?”
The talk had Dunlap, Lockett and other of the team’s star millionaires getting back to their roots as children growing up, of dreams they had to get where they were. They thought of their love for the game, rather than the playoff chances or the wins and — more this season — losses.
“A lot of the messages were very impactful,” Dunlap said.
Can the 4-8 Seahawks get back in the playoff hunt? They will be substantial favorites in the 3 of the final 5.
at Houston
at LA Rams
CHICAGO
DETROIT
at Arizona
If, if, they can win at the Rams on the 19th, they could be 8-8 against a Cardinals team that has clinched it all.
– – –
This on the addition of RB ADRIAN PETERSON in time for an important TD. Brady Henderson of ESPN.com:
The 126th touchdown of Adrian Peterson’s Hall of Fame career helped the Seattle Seahawks snap their three-game losing streak with a 30-23 win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
It also moved the veteran running back one spot up on the NFL’s all-time TD list. After beginning the day tied with Walter Payton for 11th place, Peterson is now tied with Jim Brown for 10th. He needs two more to tie Marvin Harrison for ninth place.
“It was exciting for guys to get AD his touchdown today so he could tie the great Jim Brown,” said coach Pete Carroll, referring to Peterson’s nickname, “All Day.” “That was just for fun. Thrilled that he got a chance to do that and have him with us in this game.”
Peterson, who signed with Seattle’s practice squad on Wednesday, started the game and carried a team-high 11 times for 16 yards while rotating frequently with Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer. His 1-yard touchdown run in the second quarter cut San Francisco’s lead to 17-14. He followed a lead block from fullback Nick Bellore, who mainly plays on special teams and practices as a backup linebacker during the week.
“He is probably wondering who I was because I haven’t actually got to meet him yet,” said the 32-year-old Bellore. “I went over for one play of walk-through on offense and he kind of looked at me, and I didn’t want to introduce myself. I was just glad to kind of help out anyway I could to get him in the end zone … I’m really old, and he’s even older.”
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AFC WEST
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DENVER
Peter King on the Broncos lackluster performance after being flexed into Sunday night against the Chiefs:
I think the biggest lesson from the Sunday night game—other than perhaps that the Kansas City defense has now come full circle and will be a force to be reckoned with—is that we’ve reached that time in the six-year post-Peyton Manning Era in Denver that cries out/demands for yet another major investment in a quarterback. Denver is non-competitive with the premier team in the division. The 22-9 loss to KC at Arrowhead on Sunday night means the Broncos, post-Manning, are 0-11 against Kansas City by an average losing margin of nearly two touchdowns per game. The options facing Denver GM George Paton come March:
• Trade for Aaron Rodgers (his choice whether he wants to be dealt, and no sign if he does) or Deshaun Watson (risky and costly) or Russell Wilson (no sign Seattle will trade him) … or do something unexpected. If Miami deals for Watson, Tua Tagovailoa might be out there—though he’s playing more and more like an answer in Miami. Jimmy Garoppolo might be out there, but he’s tarnished his rep to the point where I doubt anyone looks at him as a no-doubt answer for the next five years. The best option, I think, is Rodgers, but it’s still so cloudy that he’ll even be available. Even if he can be had, he’s 38, and Denver would almost have to backstop Rodgers with a long-term guy in the ’23 or ’24 draft.
• Draft one. Looks like an iffy market this year, but Paton may fall in love with a project mid-round guy like Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett in the winter.
• Do something outside the box. Blow away a team not looking to trade its starter—Matt Ryan or Derek Carr, for example—or trade less for a Jalen Hurts if Philadelphia decides to draft the next big thing, then mold your offense around the arm and legs of Hurts.
It’s easy to say about any of those things, Not gonna happen. Fine. But the alternative is the status quo, and that looks disastrous.
Much like the Patriots drafting QB MAC JONES, some of the best moves are the ones you don’t make. San Francisco at Seattle, which was flexed out of Sunday night, was a rousing game with a great finish that ended up having some playoff implications.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
Attrition for Baltimore. Now, it is CB MARLON HUMPHREY who is done. Grant Gordon of NFL.com:
Following his team’s 20-19 loss on Sunday, Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said it would be a while before his team would have injured cornerback Marlon Humphrey back.
It turns out a while is likely to be the rest of the season.
NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reports Humphrey is suspected to be out for the remainder of the Ravens’ season after suffering a shoulder injury.
Humphrey, a two-time Pro Bowler in his fifth season with Baltimore, had three tackles on Sunday before exiting and has 58 tackles and 13 passes defended on the season.
It’s a huge blow for the Ravens’ secondary, which was banged up to say the least coming into Sunday. Dealing with an illness, Humphrey was questionable along with fellow cornerbacks Anthony Averett (shoulder, ankle), Jimmy Smith (neck, ankle), Chris Westry (thigh) and Tavon Young (illness).
And Humphrey’s injury played a factor in John Harbaugh’s decision to go for two at the end of the game. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:
The analytics essentially said it was toss-up on whether the Baltimore Ravens should have aggressively gone for two points near the end of Sunday’s game with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But coach John Harbaugh believed there was no debate, because injuries once again impacted the season of the banged-up Ravens.
Harbaugh explained that injuries affected his decision to go for a potential game-winning 2-point conversion instead of settling for a tying point-after kick. With 12 seconds remaining in regulation, Lamar Jackson’s pass on the 2-point conversion went off the outstretched left hand of tight end Mark Andrews as the Ravens fell to the Steelers 20-19 at Heinz Field.
Asked why he went for two instead of the PAT to force overtime, Harbaugh said: “[We’re] trying to win the game right there. We were pretty much out of corners at that point in time. It was an opportunity to try to win the game right there.”
Ravens Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey appeared to grab his right shoulder when trying to tackle Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson on Pittsburgh’s go-ahead 5-yard TD with 1:48 to play. The Ravens fear Humphrey suffered a season-ending pectoral injury on the play, a source told ESPN, confirming a report by NFL Network.
Harbaugh said Humphrey will have an MRI and declined to specify the injury.
“It could be a while for Marlon,” he said.
The analytics slightly favored Baltimore going for two points (47.1%) over the kick (46.5%), according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
Jackson backed Harbaugh’s decision.
“I want to win,” Jackson said. “I didn’t want to go to overtime anyway.”
With the Ravens trailing 20-13, Jackson capped a 60-yard drive by hitting Sammy Watkins for a 6-yard touchdown. Then, on the 2-point conversion, Andrews was uncovered in the right flat but Jackson had to step up and adjust his throw because Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt was in his face.
Jackson is now 3-of-10 on 2-point conversions in his career (either rushing or passing). That’s the second-worst conversion rate in the past 20 seasons among 40 players with 10-plus 2-point conversion attempts, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
“T.J. Watt’s got range. He’s a long guy,” Jackson said. “I had to throw around him and try to make something happen. That’s all. Just came up short.”
Andrews accepted the blame for the failed conversion.
“[It] was a good playcall,” Andrews said. “I came wide open. Lamar threw a great ball; I just didn’t make the play.”
In the past three seasons, teams are 3-for-8 (37.5%) on 2-point conversion attempts when down by one point in the fourth quarter. They are 10-of-23 (43.4%) in these situations since 2000.
Harbaugh was pleased with the playcall, not the execution.
“It was a game of inches,” Harbaugh said. “You saw the Al Pacino speech in ‘Any Given Sunday.’ There you go. That’s football. It’s just that close.”
This marked the fourth time in five meetings that a Ravens-Steelers game was decided by five points or fewer.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin wasn’t surprised by the Ravens going for the win.
“They aggressively play analytics,” Tomlin said. “From that standpoint, they’re predictable.”
Baltimore allowed Pittsburgh to score on all three of its fourth-quarter drives and then lost its top corner in Humphrey. Entering Sunday’s game, the Ravens were already dealing with injuries at cornerback, with all of their active ones — Anthony Averett (shoulder/ankle), Tavon Young (illness), Jimmy Smith (neck/ankle) — missing at least one practice last week.
The Baltimore secondary has already dealt with season-ending injuries to two starters in the secondary: cornerback Marcus Peters (knee) and safety DeShon Elliott (torn biceps/pectoral muscles).
“We’ve got a lot of injuries, so we’ve been dealing with stress all season, and we’ve still been able to overcome it,” Ravens nose tackle Brandon Williams said. “So, that’s what we plan on doing. It’s a next man up mentality, so the show must go on.”
Despite the loss, the Ravens (8-4) still lead the AFC North by one game. Baltimore next plays at the Cleveland Browns (6-6), who are coming off a bye.
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PITTSBURGH
Peter King with EDGE T.J. WATT on the Ravens deciding 2-point conversion attempt:
Twenty-four minutes after the game ended, Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt got on the phone to describe what happened next.
“Sorry for my hoarse voice,” he said, “but I’ve been yelling and screaming. I’m all sorts of out of breath here too, still.”
Watt: “We see they’re going for two, and it’s not really anything that our guys were shocked by. They’re a team that likes to take chances and go for it on fourth down. I fully respect their decision, especially with Lamar. But the two-point play is something we take pride in stopping. Every week in the practice—and all the time in training camp—we work on it. We call it ‘Seven shots.’ Seven shots the offense gets to score from the 2. So it’s something we definitely are prepared for. This week, our offense used multiple guys [to simulate Jackson] on the scout team. Ray-Ray McCloud, one of our quick receivers, went and did some reps. We were prepared.
“The fans were going absolutely crazy. Terrible Towels waving like crazy. Just a special atmosphere. But once the play’s called, and you know your assignment, you just lock in, and it’s football.”
I told Watt it looked like his assignment, at left end, was to not let Jackson get outside, and to pressure him without him juking and getting getting free.
“That’s exactly it,” he said, “but you know. It’s no easy task.”
Watt went upfield at the snap to close off Jackson’s outside rush lane, as Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews sprinted to the right behind the line across the formation. Watt then lunged toward Jackson, who knew he was going to have to throw it just a tick sooner than he wanted because of Watt in his face. “The play I replayed in my head all week was Lamar pump-faking me last year in Baltimore and beating me for a 14-, 15-yard scramble. So in this scenario, I just want stay on my feet and get my outside arm up to try to influence him, change his angle.”
Watt did that. Jackson dropped down and made a sidearm-flick, evading Watt’s hot breath, and the ball floated toward an open Andrews.
“It all happened so fast,” Watt said. “I know I’m not getting to him, so I want to affect the play as much as I can. Did I affect his throw? I don’t know.”
“GREAT PLAY CALL!” Tony Romo yelled, meanwhile, on CBS.
Andrews got his big left hand on the ball at the 2. A catch, and Andrews walks in for the winning points, and the Ravens own the division. An incompletion, and every team in the division has six, seven or eight wins, and a sprint to the finish.
The ball was inches too far. Incomplete. As Romo said, “One inch from Baltimore going to 9-3. Instead, the Steelers are alive.”
Pittsburgh, 6-5-1, is alive, but in for a funky week. The Steelers fly to Minnesota on Wednesday for their Thursday night requirement (every teams plays at least one) game against the Vikings. Tough to go on the road in a very short week after the bi-annual slugfest with the Ravens. Nothing’s easy for the Steelers this year, and the road to the playoffs won’t be either.
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AFC SOUTH
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HOUSTON
QB TYROD TAYLOR did not finish the wreckage of Sunday’s home shutout loss to the Colts. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:
Not much went right for the Texans in their 31-0 loss to the Colts on Sunday.
But one aspect of the game was an injury to Tyrod Taylor‘s non-throwing wrist.
Taylor was evaluated and cleared to return, but rookie quarterback Davis Mills still replaced Taylor in the third quarter of the loss. At that point, Houston was already down 21-0. Taylor was 5-for-13 with 45 yards and an interception.
On Monday, head coach David Culley said Taylor will undergo an MRI on his left wrist. The quarterback was having trouble fielding snaps after hyperextending the wrist.
“We’ll just kind of see how it is,” Culley said, via Brooks Kubena of the Houston Chronicle.
Though Davis Mills didn’t fare much better than Taylor — the rookie finished 6-of-14 passing for 49 yards — Culley said the team will continue to evaluate who will start against the Seahawks in Week 14. That decision will be made later in the week.
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AFC EAST
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MIAMI
Five straight wins for the Dolphins who keep moving closer to the playoffs. At 6-7, they have Jets, at Tennessee, at New Orleans, New England left – and the road games to the Titans and the Saints aren’t as intimidating as they would have been in September.
Peter King:
Miami’s suddenly interesting. Following seven losses with five wins … surrendering 11 points a game in the five wins … Tua Tagovailoa getting more comfortable and productive by the week, completing 78 percent in the five-game streak. Anything flip the switch at 1-7? That’s what I asked tight end Mike Gesicki after the 20-9 win over the Giants. “Wish I could give you some secret story, but we just stayed with the process,” he said. “If you could sit in our team meeting tomorrow morning, you’d see coach [Brian] Flores would be the exact same as he was the day after we lost our seventh in a row. He doesn’t bash people, call you out. He’s consistent. Another thing that hasn’t changed is Tua. He’s been the same through it all.” When we finished talking, Gesicki apologized for not saying much of anything. But I knew what he was saying was what was happening inside the team. It’s a Flores production, and the coach learned in New England that highs and lows don’t win. Consistency does.
The Dolphins are the 2nd team to lose 7 in a row, then immediately win 5 straight – the other being the 1994 Giants.
The Dolphins can be the first team to start 1-7 and make the playoffs and the first team to start 1-7 and have a winning record (thanks to the 17-game schedule). The 1984 Packers were 1-7 on the way to 8-8.
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THIS AND THAT
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DAVE LOGAN
Dave Logan is feted by Peter King:
Dave Logan, Broncos radio voice/Denver Cherry Creek High School head coach. Logan won his 10th Colorado state high school football championship Saturday at Empower Field, with Cherry Creek shutting out top-seed Valor Christian 21-0. Logan has won those 10 titles at four different schools, and it’s believed that no high school football coach has ever won state titles with four different schools. The win Saturday was the 303rd of his coaching life. Logan flew to Kansas City to do the Broncos’ Sunday night game there.
Logan, who went to high school in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, played at the U. of Colorado. He was drafted in MLB, NBA and NFL – playing nine seasons in the latter (8 with Cleveland, the final one with the hometown Broncos).
While still a fulltime radio personality and Voice of the Broncos (play-by-play since 1997) on weekends, he has been coaching high school football since 1993.
This from DaveLogan.com (updated for this week’s events):
He has been a Colorado high school head coach from 1993 to the present, all years at the 5A level, which is the state’s highest classification.
As of 2021, Dave had coached 29 seasons of high school football. He began coaching at Arvada West in 1993 and remained there through the 1997 season (winning the state title in 1997). From 2000 to 2002, Dave coached at Chatfield (winning the state title in 2001). In 2003, Dave moved to Mullen, where he remained coach until 2011 (winning four state titles in 2004, 2008, 2009, and 2010). Dave currently coaches at Cherry Creek, where he began in 2012 (winning state titles in 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021).
Dave’s success as a high school coach is unprecedented, not only in Colorado, but also nationally. He is the only high school football coach in history to win 10 championships at four different schools, and he holds 303 overall wins. Winning is in Dave’s blood. That’s why it’s no surprise he now resides in eight Halls of Fame.
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ANALYTICAL COACHES
Peter King cites something called EDJ Sports on the role of analytics in key game decisions. Chargers coach Brandon Staley is the most aggressive and the guy they love the most. Here are there rankings with commentary from King:
Postscript: The top and bottom-rated coaches in the league through 12 weeks in the EdjSports Head Coach Rankings say something about the meaning of coaches in the game. The rankings measure every coaching decision through a series of metrics including fourth-down calls and play-calling choices (judged pre-snap, not after the result). Here are the rankings and explanation of the parameters.
Top five
1. Staley
2. Matt LaFleur
3. Kliff Kingsbury
4. Sean McDermott
5. Frank Reich
Bottom five
28. Pete Carroll
29. Dan Campbell
30. Joe Judge
31. Robert Saleh
32. Mike Tomlin
Team records through 12 weeks of the top five coaches: 37-20. Bottom five: 15-38-2.
The line of demarcation, I think, with coaches, began seriously in 2017, when Doug Pederson started going gutsy. His risk-accepting ethos resulted in going 17-for-26 on fourth downs, and having two specialists in analytics in his ear, occasionally, during games. Not coincidentally, Frigo and his EdjSports team were providing statistical analysis to the Eagles in 2017. The Eagles’ owner, Jeffrey Lurie, pushed the acceptance of advanced data. “What we found is there’s been so many decisions over time that are too conservative for the odds of maximizing your chance to win,” Lurie said in 2017. “We’ve lived with television commentators and reporters and whatever for 20, 30, 40 years, who always kind of adopted what I would call a very conservative approach to those decisions.”
“On fourth downs now,” Frigo said, “the analytics revolution is the difference. Everyone had been anchored by conventional wisdom, like, ‘In your territory, never go for it on fourth down.’ Now they know many of those calls are mathematically defendable decisions.”
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