The Daily Briefing Monday, February 5, 2024

THE DAILY BRIEFING

NFC NORTH

 

GREEN BAY

In a public response to a disgusted fan, Packers General Chair Mark Murphy reveals this will be his final season in the job.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Packers CEO Mark Murphy writes a monthly column on the team’s website. In his latest item, Murphy turns the table on a fan who is counting the hours until Murphy is gone.

 

“I am emailing today to express my disappointment and dissatisfaction with the franchise and its direction during your tenure as CEO,” Justin M. from Tucson writes. “I believe it is long overdue for you to retire and give control of the organization to someone else who is more properly prepared to take the team into the future. Your leadership has been inept. You do not deserve to lead such a storied franchise. Please disappear into retirement ether. Nobody likes you. You have never been a good executive. I wish you the worst in your twilight years.”

 

Murphy surely gets plenty of emails like that. Anyone in a position like his who invites public feedback does. This time, Murphy opted to use it — and to respond.

 

“Thanks for sharing your opinion, Justin,” Murphy writes. “I also appreciate the 11 other emails you’ve recently sent with similar suggestions. I get your point. You will be pleased to know that I am required to retire in July 2025 under our by-laws.”

 

That’s only one football season away. It means the Packers soon will be embarking on a search for a new CEO, to whom Justin M. and his ilk can promptly commence sending hate mail.

 

Although the Packers would at times benefit from having a solitary owner who can, when needed, fire someone on the spot, they benefit from the stability of a corporate structure. The person who runs the team is far more likely to be qualified to do so than someone who either made enough money in some other line of work to buy a really expensive toy, or got the team from someone’s will.

 

The challenge for the Packers will be to find a capable CEO for a multi-billion-dollar business. Whoever they find will most likely be better than if the succession plan consisted of Murphy selling the team or picking one of his family members to take over. Which is exactly what would happen if Murphy were in charge of any of the other 31 franchises.

NFC EAST

 

DALLAS

With Dan Quinn now the head coach in Washington, could Mike Zimmer return for a second stint as Cowboys DC?

 

Mike Zimmer is a candidate to be the next defensive coordinator of the Cowboys.

 

Zimmer is meeting with the Cowboys about the defensive coordinator vacancy, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.

 

The 67-year-old Zimmer got his first NFL coaching job with the Cowboys in 1994 and was the defensive coordinator in Dallas from 2000 to 2006. He’s also been the defensive coordinator of the Falcons and Bengals, and he was head coach of the Vikings from 2014 to 2021.

 

Dan Quinn, who was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator for the last three years, is leaving to become head coach of the Commanders.

 

WASHINGTON

Dan Quinn was the last coach hired and Mike Florio says he may have been Washington’s third choice:

Good news, Commanders fans. New coach Dan Quinn wasn’t the team’s second choice.

 

Bad news, Commanders fans. Quinn might have been the third choice.

 

Per a league source, new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald also had an offer from the Commanders. It was extended after Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson removed his name from consideration for the job.

 

Macdonald, most recently the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, opted to go not down the road from Baltimore to D.C. but across the country to Seattle.

 

Plenty of Commanders fans seem to be less than inspired by the hiring of Quinn, who was barely above .500 during his time with the Falcons and who most recently had his Dallas defense shredded for 48 points in the wild-card round, by the Packers. The fact that he was possibly third behind Johnson and Macdonald won’t make it any better.

Jenna Laine of ESPN.com, whose normal domain is the Buccaneers, dropped a vaguely-sourced bombshell into what happened in Washington:

@JennaLaineESPN

Was told that Ben Johnson was “turned off” by Commanders ownership, that they’re “basketball guys” and felt they were a little too confident in their football opinions. And I also heard that he “didn’t interview well.”  He said, he said, but clearly not a good fit for both sides.

Which sparked another ESPNer, Jason Reid, to go off:

@JReidESPN

Thread: Been tied up working, so I missed the “report” on Ben Johnson supposedly interviewing so poorly with the @Commanders  being the reason he informed the team he wouldn’t take the job. This is all-time banana-in-the-tailpipe stuff. Even as I typed that, the mental

gymnastics it would take for one to … OK. In order to believe in the veracity of this “report,” and for myriad reasons I don’t, one would have to accept that the Washington contingent that flew to meet Johnson for another interview did so knowing it would not offer him the job because of how poorly he interviewed previously. Anyone who covers the NFL gets why these “reports” are put out. It’s never a good look for an owner to fail to get the HC he wants, especially a new owner of a franchise such as Washington. The fans have been through a lot.

 

Ideally, this is a time to stir buzz by picking a hot, young OC to lead the team in a new day. Logically, if Harris and others got on a plane having already determined Johnson wasn’t their guy, then Commanders fans should be concerned, gravely, about this process. Logically,this makes no sense. Add to that the fact that Quinn, whom they could have hired two weeks ago, was left on his own to schlep through Reagan, where he was spotted and questioned by a reporter, and what happened here is crystal clear. Teams never want their top guy for a HC job to be put in position to meet with a reporter/reporters before a deal is wrapped up. Owners take no risks with this. Too much could go wrong and scuttle the process. That’s why they fly top guys on private jets or fly to them and meet at FBOs. Trust me on this.

 

The fact that Quinn flew commercial outta Reagan and then they gave him the job after Johnson’s text (to text while they were already in the air is straight gangsta) is the tell. Needless to say, Johnson didn’t make any friends at Commanders Park or whatever it’s called now. That established, all that matters now is that Quinn wins. If he does that, the process that resulted in his getting the job won’t matter. Many people I trust in the league have told me the new GM is really sharp; keen eye for talent. They have the No. 2 overall pick and cap space.

 

And, obviously, the best news of all for Commanders fans is that Snyder is still gone. It would appear Harris did a good job on handling the GM search. Not so much on the HC search. So he’s batting .500, so to speak, which is a whole lot better than the previous guy did.

Quinn gets an interesting OC to work with.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:

Kliff Kingsbury has found another NFL landing spot.

 

Kingsbury has agreed to terms with the Commanders to be their offensive coordinator, according to multiple reports.

 

Kingsbury had initially agreed to become the Raiders’ OC but talks between the two sides broke down and the former Cardinals coach was back on the market.

 

After compiling a 28-37-1 record over four seasons with Arizona, Kingsbury spent last year as a senior offensive analyst for USC. He helped coach quarterback Caleb Williams, who is expected to be one of the first two picks in the upcoming draft.

 

With Dan Quinn now in the saddle as head coach, the Commanders have the No. 2 overall pick behind the Bears and are likely to be in the quarterback market.

 

With Kingsbury out, the Raiders have agreed to terms with former Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to be their OC.

Joe Whitt, Jr. who worked with Quinn in Dallas as secondary coach and pass game coordinator is Washington’s new DC.

NFC SOUTH

 

NEW ORLEANS

Offensive changes in New Orleans.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Longtime NFL coach Doug Marrone will be looking for work after he was fired by the Saints.

 

Marrone was fired on Saturday after two years as the Saints’ offensive line coach, according to multiple reports.

 

The Saints are expected to hire 49ers passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak as their next offensive coordinator, and he will likely bring some of his own assistants along as he attempts to re-shape the Saints’ offense.

 

Marrone was the Bills’ head coach in 2013 and 2014, and the Jaguars’ head coach from 2017 to 2020. He’s also been the head coach at Syracuse and had a long tenure as an assistant coach, including two different stints with the Saints.

 

The perpetually cap-strapped Saints have missed the playoffs three straight years, and head coach Dennis Allen is hoping a new offensive scheme can get more out of quarterback Derek Carr, whose $30 million guaranteed salary means the Saints are married to him for 2024.

NFC WEST

 

SEATTLE

Charles McDonald of YahooSports.com cast his vote for Mike Macdonald as the best hire of the cycle.

Patience is a virtue. The Seattle Seahawks twiddled their thumbs and bided their time, waiting for the postseason to end to hire their top target: Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.

 

Seattle was one of the last teams to fill its vacancy, but at the end of the day, the Seahawks ended up with arguably the top candidate in this year’s crop of new head coaches. Time will tell if Macdonald can replicate the success Pete Carroll had as the head coach for 14 seasons, but his profile should have fans of the team excited, particularly for a franchise that routinely plays some of the top offensive minds in the NFL.

 

Expecting Macdonald to come in and reproduce the 2023 Ravens defense wouldn’t be fair to him or the players Seattle currently has on its roster, but there are some pieces that should fit well with what Macdonald ran. Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton developed into one of the best defensive backs in the league under Macdonald’s tutelage, becoming one of the most feared slot defenders in football. This isn’t a one-for-one comparison, but cornerback Devon Witherspoon can play the blitzing role in similar fashion as Hamilton. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hamilton rushed the passer 34 times in the regular season to Witherspoon’s 28. Both players finished the season with three sacks. If Macdonald wants to continue to have that as a weapon in his defense, Witherspoon is well-versed in what it takes to be a successful player in the slot.

 

There are other Seahawks defensive players with upside like cornerback Tariq Woolen, edge rushers Boye Mafe and Derick Hall and a big-ticket free agent from last year in defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones. Even though the Seahawks have some talented players on the defensive roster, they didn’t exactly perform well as a defensive unit. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks ranked 27th in expected points allowed per dropback (0.01) and 31st in expected points allowed per rushing attempt (0.01). This was one of the worst defenses in football, so it’s time to figure out how much of that was personnel based or scheme and coaching based. If Macdonald is as sharp as he appears, the Seahawks should see a big jump in their defensive numbers.

 

Getting the defensive side of the ball moving in the right direction again matters a ton in a division featuring Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan as regular foes Seattle has to face four times a season. The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are going to be able to score as long as those two are in charge of their respective teams. Hiring one of the top defensive minds in football makes sense as a counterpunch.

 

The Seahawks went 0-4 in the 2023 season against the Rams and 49ers largely because they couldn’t play defense and get off the field. In only one of those games did they hold the opponent under 28 points, a 17-16 loss in Week 11 to the Rams.

 

If Macdonald can be a major boost to the Seahawks’ defense, Seattle should find itself in a spot where it can make the playoffs next season. The offense should be ready to go, especially if Macdonald nails his offensive coordinator hire. Geno Smith is a quality quarterback who still continues to be a net-positive for the Seahawks, their wide receiver trio is dangerous and they have youth that’s continuing to grow at running back and offensive line. It’s easy to see why this spot was appealing for a first-time head coach. A veteran quarterback and passing game will allow Macdonald to do what he does best: focus on the defense.

 

On paper, the Seahawks nailed this hire. They’ll still have to go through the draft and free agency as they mold what the team will look like, but it appears that waiting for the Ravens to finish their season got Seattle the perfect man for the job.

But who is going to run the offense?  It won’t be Mike Kafka of the Giants.  Kole Musgrove of USAToday:

The Seattle Seahawks have their head coach in Mike Macdonald and assistant head coach in Leslie Frazier. All that’s left for them is to find Macdonald an offensive coordinator. While we may not know who it will be, we know who it won’t be: New York Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka.

 

The Seahawks have had peculiar interest in Kafka during their search for a head coach, interviewing him twice for the position. Although Kafka ultimately did not get the top job, Seattle still seemed interested in him for their OC position. However, the New York Giants will not let that happen this cycle.

 

In the NFL, teams cannot prevent coaches from interviewing for positions that would be promotions. But for lateral positions, teams are absolutely within their right to prevent their coaches from interviewing elsewhere for the same job.

Brandon Gustafson of Seattle Sports has two other candidates:

Could Alabama OC Ryan Grubb return to Seattle?

Football fans in the Pacific Northwest know Ryan Grubb very well as he called plays for the UW Huskies’ high-flying offense in 2022 and 2023.

 

Grubb, 47, left Washington for Alabama along with Kalen DeBoer last month. Grubb posted on social media that he wanted to be the Huskies’ next head coach, but ultimately that job went to Jedd Fisch.

 

But according to multiple reports, including Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, Grubb is under consideration for the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator opening, meaning he could return to Seattle after less than a month on Alabama’s staff.

 

Would Ryan Grubb be a good fit as Seattle Seahawks OC? Huard weighs in

 

Under Grubb, the Huskies were the nation’s top passing team each of the last two years with Michael Penix Jr. throwing for over 9,500 yards in that span.

 

Washington went 25-3 over the last two seasons with Grubb calling the team’s offense and Penix under center.

 

Grubb returning to the Pacific Northwest also adds intrigue as a number of top UW offensive players are in this year’s draft, including Penix, standout offensive linemen Troy Fautanu, an expected first-round pick, and Roger Rosengarten, as well as receivers Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk.

 

Grubb has coached alongside DeBoer nearly every year since 2007, and has never coached in the NFL, though Macdonald said Thursday that previous NFL play-calling experience is not a requirement for his offensive coordinator hire.

 

Will Seattle Seahawks land a different Detroit assistant?

Tanner Engstrad, 41, has spent the last four years in Detroit as an offensive assistant, including stints as tight ends coach and, most recently, passing game coordinator. According to multiple reports, including Albert Breer of The MMQB, the Seahawks have requested an interview with Engstrand.

 

The Lions have had one of the NFL’s best offenses each of the last two seasons under head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and Johnson was a top candidate for Seattle’s head coach opening, but he is back in Detroit.

 

Given Seattle’s interest in Johnson, getting Engstrad would make a lot of sense considering he knows that offense very well. The Lions have a great aerial attack, but they also run the ball very well. They were the first team in NFL history to have two running backs that each had over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10-plus total touchdowns.

 

Engstrand and Macdonald have never coached together, but they do have a connection in current Los Angeles Chargers and former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. Macdonald was Michigan’s defensive coordinator in 2021 and Engstrand coached under Harbaugh at the University of San Diego in the mid-2000s and at Michigan again in 2018.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

QB PATRICK MAHOMES now has a Super Bowl week distraction courtesy of his father.  Justin Tasch in the New York Post:

Patrick Mahomes Sr., the dad of superstar Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and a former Mets pitcher, was arrested Saturday in Tyler, Texas, on a charge of DWI for the third time or more, according to jail records.

 

Mahomes Sr., who had been in attendance for his son’s playoff games this year, was arrested eight days before the younger Mahomes is set to play in Super Bowl 2024 against the 49ers in Las Vegas on Feb. 11.

 

In 2018, Mahomes Sr. received his second DWI charge and he served 40 days in jail on weekends in 2019 and 2020.

 

Mahomes Sr., 53, played 11 seasons in MLB, pitching for the Mets in the 1999 and 2000 seasons.

 

The elder Mahomes has been supporting his son during the playoffs and told WFAN how, although he has sat in a suite with Taylor Swift before, he wasn’t with her during the divisional round against the Bills and wouldn’t be for the AFC Championship game against the Ravens, either.

 

“Nah, I don’t think so,” Mahomes Sr. said on Jan. 25.. “Travis normally has his own thing and Patrick has his own deal too.”

 

Mahomes Sr. was on hand when the Chiefs defeated the Eagles at last year’s Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., and smoked a celebratory cigar.

LAS VEGAS

With Antonio Pierce handling defense and motivation, the OC hire in Las Vegas is a very key component to the team’s hopes.  And it looks like that hire may be Luke Getsy.  Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com:

The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to hire Luke Getsy as their next offensive coordinator, sources told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler late Saturday night. The report comes hours after former Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury removed himself from consideration.

 

Getsy, 39, fired by the Chicago Bears as offensive coordinator last month, was one of at least five candidates the Raiders interviewed for the vacant offensive playcaller position. Kingsbury, former Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, Pittsburgh Steelers receivers coach Mike Sullivan and UCLA coach Chip Kelly were among the others. Van Pelt was hired to be the New England Patriots offensive coordinator while Kingsbury has been linked to the vacant Washington Commanders offensive coordinator position.

 

In his reintroductory news conference last month, Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said he wanted a “minimum 24 points” out of a new offensive coordinator, after the Raiders averaged 19.5 points per game under former coach Josh McDaniels and interim offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree.

 

To average 24 points, the Raiders would need to score 408 points, a mark they have hit only three times since their 2002 Super Bowl season.

 

Pierce said an incoming offensive coordinator would have to be a teacher who can “adjust on the fly” during games.

 

“You’ve got to be able to run the football — play-action pass,” Pierce said. “What are the Raiders known for? The vertical passing game, right? We want to see the shots down the field. We want the explosive plays. That has to be a part of the creativity. You look at the shifts, the motions, all that stuff goes into it … just think of when [the] Raiders were playing really good football, and that’s going to be your offensive coordinator, hopefully, as we go forward.”

 

Getsy brings that run-heavy mentality that Pierce and new general manager Tom Telesco like. The Bears led the NFL in rushing in 2022 (177.3 YPG) and finished second in 2023 (141.1).

 

That’s the good.

 

The bad? The Bears were last in passing offense in 2022 (130.5 YPG) and 27th last season (182.1); they averaged 21.2 points per game.

 

A potentially intriguing plot twist is Getsy’s relationship with Bears quarterback Justin Fields. Fields might be a trade target for the Raiders, who hold the No. 13 overall draft pick and are likely to move on from veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. While rookie Aidan O’Connell showed himself to be serviceable as a backup, he was immobile in the pocket.

 

Getsy was fired in Chicago on Jan. 10, after the club decided to shake up the staff but kept coach Matt Eberflus for the 2024 season. The Bears finished 7-10, tied for last place in the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings.

 

The Raiders, meanwhile, went 8-9, including a lackluster 30-12 Week 7 loss at Chicago with undrafted Bears rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent filling in for an injured Fields. The defeat led to McDaniels’ dismissal on Oct. 31.

 

Under Pierce, promoted from linebackers coach to interim coach, the Raiders went 5-4, 3-1 in the AFC West, and handed the conference champion Kansas City Chiefs their most recent loss on Christmas Day.

 

And though they scored 357 points, Raiders quarterbacks combined for just an 80.1 quarterback rating.

 

In Chicago, player frustrations over the Bears offense showed several times during the 2023 season, beginning in Week 3 when Fields pointed to “coaching” as the reason behind his “robotic” play. Wide receiver DJ Moore also indicated a lack of consistent explosive plays caused Chicago to fall short.

 

“The growth and the development of the offense, to me, needed to be better than what it was,” Eberflus said after the season. “You look at the passing game, certainly that’s one aspect of it. And that’s where it is. We decided to move on from that.”

 

Getsy’s offense in Chicago ranked 17th in offensive points per game (20.4), its highest mark since ranking 11th in 2018, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

Sports Illustrated first reported on Getsy’s hiring.

Question – does this make the Raiders more likely or less likely to pursue QB JUSTIN FIELDS in a trade?

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Greg Roman is likely to be re-uniting with Jim Harbaugh. Jordan Dajani ofCBSSports.com:

The Los Angeles Chargers locked down their new head coach in Jim Harbaugh, and they are close to securing an experienced offensive mind that is quite familiar with the new lead man in L.A. Per NFL Media, the Chargers are expected to hire Greg Roman for a prominent spot on Harbaugh’s staff. The details are reportedly still being worked out.

 

Roman last served as the offensive coordinator for the other Harbaugh brother, John, with the Baltimore Ravens in 2022. He spent six seasons in what was his second stint in Baltimore, and held titles like assistant head coach and tight ends coach. Last offseason, Roman and the Ravens parted ways after four seasons. During his time with the Ravens, Roman helped Lamar Jackson win his first MVP, and built one of the most successful rushing offenses in the league.

 

Roman worked under Jim Harbaugh as an associate head coach at Stanford before Harbaugh made his jump to the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers. Roman followed Harbaugh to the league, and served as San Francisco’s offensive coordinator from 2011-14. Harbaugh and Roman went an impressive 44-19-1 over four seasons, and went to the Super Bowl in 2012 and faced off against brother John’s Ravens.

AFC EAST

 

MIAMI

Mike MacDonald left for the Seattle head coaching job – and Ravens DL coach Anthony Weaver is not going with him and not staying in Baltimore.

The Dolphins hired Anthony Weaver as their new defensive coordinator, the team announced Saturday, ending a 10-day coaching search.

 

Weaver most recently served as the defensive line coach and associate head coach for the Baltimore Ravens, where he’d been since 2021. The former second-round pick played for the Ravens and Houston Texans during his seven-year NFL career.

 

The Dolphins hired Vic Fangio last year after firing Josh Boyer, but parted ways with Fangio this offseason. He joined the Philadelphia Eagles’ staff soon after.

 

The Dolphins released a statement from coach Mike McDaniel, lauding Weaver, who “has a proven résumé of success, built on his personal investment in his players. Most importantly, he shares our belief that player development is the cornerstone to both team building and sustained excellence.”

 

Weaver has coached in the NFL since 2012, mainly as a defensive line coach with the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Texans and Ravens.

Inside linebackers coach Zach Orr was Baltimore’s pick to replace MacDonald.

 

NEW ENGLAND

Per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com, Bill Belichick, who doesn’t do social media like Instagram, took out a “full page ad” in the largely digital Boston Globe:

Former New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick wrote a heartfelt thank-you letter to fans that appeared in The Boston Globe on Sunday.

 

The Patriots and Belichick mutually parted ways after 24 seasons on Jan. 11. When Belichick and owner Robert Kraft stood together to announce the decision, Belichick had referenced how much the team’s fans had meant to him, which he put into writing in his full-page advertisement.

 

The letter was written “To Patriots fans everywhere,” had a blue background, included a picture of Belichick from one of the team’s six Super Bowl championship parades and ran on Page A3 of the newspaper.

 

“Nowhere in America are pro sports fans as passionate as in New England and for 24 years, I was blessed to feel your passion and power,” Belichick wrote. “The Patriots are the only NFL team representing SIX states but in reality, Patriots Nation knows no borders.

 

“You were undaunted by weather, attended scorching hot training camp practices and braved Foxborough’s coldest, wettest, snowiest and windiest days. Your thoughtful letters offered support, critique, and creative play suggestions. You watched on TV, the internet, and from your stadium seats.

 

“You traveled from coast to coast and internationally. Numerous times, you overtook opposing stadiums and were the last fans standing. We loved it! You gave your precious time, resources, and energy to our team. We appreciated it!”

 

Belichick’s impact in New England has also been reflected by billboards across the region thanking him.

 

In his letter, Belichick mentioned how much the Super Bowl parades through the streets of Boston meant to him, in part because of the connection with fans.

 

“Six times, you packed Boston by the millions for parades that were truly a two-way expression of gratitude and love. The images from those days are burned in my memory,” he wrote, before turning to humor.

 

“You may even have enjoyed my fashion sense and press conferences, or maybe you just tolerated them. I loved coaching here and, together, we experienced some amazing moments.”

 

Belichick concluded by writing in all capital letters “THANK YOU ALL,” then “with respect and admiration” and his signature.

– – –

Meanwhile, it looks like Alex Van Pelt and Ben McAdoo will head New England’s 2024 attack.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Patriots are “in talks” to hire Ben McAdoo as an assistant coach, Albert Breer of SI.com reports. McAdoo would have an assistant head coach-type role under Jerod Mayo and focus on helping offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.

 

McAdoo was the Giants’ head coach for almost two seasons, going 13-15 before being fired with four games left in the 2017 season.

 

McAdoo, 46, most recently was the Panthers’ offensive coordinator in 2022. He previously was the Giants’ offensive coordinator in 2014-15.

 

He also has coached the offensive line, tight ends and quarterbacks in an 18-year career with seven different teams.

 

McAdoo has made stops at the Saints, 49ers, Packers, Giants, Jaguars, Cowboys and Panthers.

And Steve Belichick is leaving the Patriots, if reports are true.  More from Charean Williams:

The University of Washington is expected to hire Steve Belichick as its new defensive coordinator, Matt Zenitz of 247Sports reports.

 

Belichick, 36, spent the past 12 years on staff of the Patriots, working for his father, Bill Belichick. Belichick and the Patriots parted ways following the 2023 season.

 

New UW head coach Jedd Fisch was the Patriots’ quarterbacks coach in 2020.

 

Belichick went from a defensive assistant (2012-15) to safeties coach (2016-18) to secondary/safeties (2019) to outside linebackers coach (2020-23) in his time with the Patriots.

 

His brother, Brian, worked for the Patriots from 2016-23.

 

THIS AND THAT

 

THE COMMISH WILL SPEAK

Mike Jones of The Athletic anticipates what might come up at Monday’s state of the league media conference:

Commissioner Roger Goodell will hold his annual state of the league address and news conference Monday at 6 p.m. ET.

 

This is a change from prior years, when Goodell held his news conference later in Super Bowl week. Also different this year: The address is invite-only, for about 125 media members, rather than open to anyone credentialed to cover the Super Bowl. Goodell will take questions after his address in the Raiders’ locker room.

 

Goodell and the 32 team owners have a number of areas to address this offseason, but these are the key topics on which we might expect updates from the commissioner Monday.

 

NFL officiating

Protecting the integrity of the game is one of the highest priorities of NFL leadership, which is why Goodell and team owners must address officiating. Questionable calls or non-calls, rather than player heroics, dominated Monday morning conversations at an alarming rate. That’s not what the league wants, yet leaders have resisted the idea of implementing additional technology to help in the review of calls. Something has to give, though, amid heightened stakes thanks to the legalization of sports betting.

 

To be clear, officiating such a fast-paced game is hard. Decisions must be made in a fraction of a second. Fans often get a better look at plays than do the officials whose calls can decide the outcome of contests. Is it time for the NFL to implement a sky judge system to provide the officiating crews more effective support? Are other solutions under consideration?

 

Playing surfaces

The lack of consistency in NFL playing surfaces is a real concern for players, who often blame serious injuries on artificial surfaces and have lobbied for the league to force all teams to switch to natural grass. The league said last week that lower-body injuries declined from 2022 to 2023, but concussions were up slightly.

 

In the fall, Goodell said the league wanted to rely on “science” as it continued to evaluate playing on artificial surfaces versus grass, and even said some players prefer playing on turf. The NFLPA, meanwhile, continues to point to studies that cite higher injury rates on turf compared to grass. The NFLPA isn’t yielding in its quest for change in this department, so it will be interesting to see what eventually transpires.

 

Rule changes

The NFL’s competition committee is expected to consider a number of rules modifications this offseason, and while Goodell might not have much insight on what changes could be looming, he’ll still likely field questions on the topic.

 

Two big areas expected to prompt discussion this offseason include the hip-drop tackle, which has resulted in serious injury to several players, and the dreaded fumble out of the end zone. That call results in a loss of possession for the team attempting to score and a touchback for the opposing team, something many around the league would like to see changed. There also has been discussion about modifying kickoff and onside kick rules.

 

Continued diversity efforts

The NFL’s mission to improve diversity hiring practices in the front office and coaching ranks is ongoing, and Goodell has repeatedly expressed a commitment to growth on this front. The league now has a record nine head coaches of color after this most recent hiring cycle, which represents real progress. Representation has also improved at the team president and general manager levels in recent years.

 

The league’s diversity and inclusion team, which works closely with Goodell, remains concerned about limited opportunities and a lack of longevity for offensive coordinators of color, however. In 2023, four men of color — Eric Bieniemy, Brian Johnson, Thomas Brown and Dave Canales — held offensive coordinator positions. But a year later, Bieniemy, Johnson and Brown are out due to firings. The owners of the Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers fired their head coaches, which ended short runs with those teams for Bieniemy and Brown. Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni fired Johnson a year after promoting him from quarterbacks coach to coordinator. Canales is the only one who got promoted, winning the head-coaching job in Carolina.

 

The NFL has made an effort to create more entry-level offensive positions for Black coaches. Officials hope that strengthens the pipeline for quarterback coaches of color, leading to promotions to coordinator and head coach. But progress remains slow.

 

International series

Efforts to expand the NFL’s reach beyond the United States are ongoing. Owners voted in December to increase the number of international games, from four to up to eight, in 2025. Last month, the NFL announced that the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars will play games in London this year. The Panthers, meanwhile, will play a game in Munich, Germany. Brazil will host a game as well in 2024, with participating teams to be announced later. Monday, Goodell could offer more insight on the league’s plans for the annual international series.

 

 

 

FREE AGENT LANDING SPOTS – QBs AND WRs

From a list of 150 top free agents, Brad Spielberger of ProFootballFocus.com identifies possible landing spots (the number is where they rank out of 150 total):

We’re kicking off our free agent landing spots series with the top quarterbacks and wide receivers set to hit the market, identifying the teams with the biggest needs at each spot and the resources available to make a splash. We’re operating under the assumption here that teams do not retain their own top pending free agents at the respective positions.

 

QUARTERBACKS

 

2.  KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Potential landing spot(s): Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders

 

Cousins should be able to go on another free agency tour as he did back in 2018 before signing a fully guaranteed three-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings. The Falcons jump out as a team that took the risk of not having a sure thing at quarterback in 2023, which ultimately got head coach Arthur Smith fired, and they may be just outside striking range for a top prospect with the No. 8 overall pick. They could also pair a developmental rookie with Cousins starting for a year or two.

 

Pittsburgh has said it’ll bring in competition for Kenny Pickett heading into 2024, but this wouldn’t be competition, it would be the starting job, so perhaps Cousins is too big a fish.

 

The Raiders also sit at the No. 13 overall pick, and veteran Jimmy Garoppolo appears to be on the way out after getting benched for rookie Aidan O’Connell. If new head coach Antonio Pierce wants to make Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers happy, perhaps he looks to make a splash.

 

Top free agent comparison: Philip Rivers, 2020

 

68. QB RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS

Potential landing spot(s): Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos

 

The Falcons connection made more sense when former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was the head coach, but he is still nonetheless a bridge option akin to Andy Dalton signing a two-year deal with the Carolina Panthers last offseason.

 

Denver may feel comfortable with Jarrett Stidham, who they gave a strong contract to last offseason, as the bridge to a rookie or backup to a veteran more along the likes of a Kirk Cousins, but Sean Payton will not sit on his hands.

 

Top free agent comparison: Andy Dalton, 2023

 

75. QB BAKER MAYFIELD, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Potential landing spot(s): Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

This would resemble a bigger splash for Denver than the aforementioned Ryan Tannehill, pairing Sean Payton with a younger potential franchise quarterback coming off a very strong 2023 campaign. Payton would need to once again deploy a ton of play-action concepts, and there are limitations throwing over the middle of the field, but Mayfield improved his pocket presence in 2023 and will take fewer bad sacks than Wilson did while also taking more risks downfield.

 

We’re breaking our rule here of not projecting a player to return to their incumbent team because the marriage between Mayfield and the Buccaneers really seems to be a great one. Tampa admirably played their way out of a top draft pick.

 

Top free agent comparison: Teddy Bridgewater, 2020

 

91. QB GARDNER MINSHEW, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Potential landing spot(s): New York Giants, Washington Commanders

 

Minshew could make sense as New York’s insurance option for the early portion of the 2024 season as Daniel Jones recovers from a torn ACL, with Tyrod Taylor set to hit free agency after sitting on the bench while Tommy Devito started despite clearly being the best quarterback available. Minshew gets to once again start a few games and perhaps fill in if Jones, unfortunately, gets hurt again. There may not be starting jobs available for Minshew after a solid year in Indianapolis, but this is a solid opportunity.

 

With Jacoby Brissett set to hit free agency, Washington adds a veteran backup to help bring along a rookie quarterback much like Minshew just did with Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis.

 

Top free agent comparison: Brian Hoyer, 2015

 

126. QB JACOBY BRISSETT, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Potential landing spot(s): Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots

 

Brissett once again played good football in 2023 after an underrated strong 2022 campaign over the first 11 games for the Cleveland Browns, stepping up in Week 15 and earning a 92.0 PFF grade with 124 passing yards and two touchdowns on just ten passing attempts. It was unfortunate Brissett got hurt in Week 16 as it appeared he may have been the starter the rest of the way in Washington.

 

The Raiders no longer have a head coach and general manager with Patriots connections, but Brissett makes sense nonetheless. In New England, Brissett of course has a ton of connections, and he could serve as a great bridge to the future in the place where he got his career started.

 

Top free agent comparison: Andy Dalton, 2023

 

130. QB JAMEIS WINSTON, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Potential landing spot(s): Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams

 

The Arizona Cardinals traded away backup Josh Dobbs shortly before the 2023 season after also moving on from Colt McCoy and had rookie Clayton Tune as the backup. Now that Arizona is looking to compete right away after a transition year with Kyler on the mend from a torn ACL, a legitimate backup option like Winston could make sense.

 

The Rams continue to bring in a ton of quarterbacks over the course of the last few seasons, with Carson Wentz this year and Baker Mayfield in 2022 both getting starts to display the talent that made them top draft picks. Winston could serve as Stafford’s backup and perhaps be a bridge to the inevitable future, learning the game from Sean McVay to boost his own individual stock in the process.

 

Top free agent comparison: Joe Flacco, 2022

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

4. WR TEE HIGGINS, CINCINNATI BENGALS

Potential landing spot(s): Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots

 

It’s no secret the Carolina Panthers desperately need wide receiver help, and Tee Higgins played his college ball at Clemson, so it would be a return to the area.

 

Jacksonville has a good slot receiver in Christian Kirk, and even if the Jaguars did retain Calvin Ridley, he profiles as more of a move/Z-receiver at this stage of his career. Higgins brings the big-bodied X-receiver skill set to town, unlocking more deep passing for Trevor Lawrence and a big, reliable target down in the red zone where Jacksonville struggled mightily in 2023. Higgins played with Lawrence for two seasons at Clemson, so why not get the duo back together?

 

The Patriots need more wide receiver help than any team in the NFL, so they should be in on every name. New England is flush with cap space and could use the No. 3 overall pick on a quarterback. Putting that quarterback in a similar position as Mac Jones — lacking legitimate wide receiver talent — would be a bad idea.

 

Top free agent comparison: Mike Williams, 2022

 

11. WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR., INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Potential landing spot(s): Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants

 

Cardinals rookie wideout Michael Wilson showed some nice flashes in his first NFL season, and Arizona should probably just run the pick in at No. 4 whether it’s Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers, but why not add a sure-handed possession receiver that is still getting better. Trading for DeAndre Hopkins worked out early, but the team obviously moved on last offseason. Kyler Murray is not afraid to rip it into tight windows and trust his guys with less separation to make a play, so Pittman fills that void.

 

The Ravens finally hit on an early-round wide receiver with 2023 rookie Zay Flowers, but pairing his speed and field-stretching ability with an underneath target who can rack up yards after the catch would be a huge boost for Lamar Jackson.

 

New York traded a third-round pick for tight end Darren Waller last offseason, but that experiment may already be a failure as he struggles to manage a nerve issue with his hamstring. The Giants have plenty of speed and slot receivers, please get Daniel Jones a big target on the outside.

 

Top free agent comparison: Allen Robinson, 2022

 

13. WR MIKE EVANS, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Potential landing spot(s): Carolina Panthers, New York Jets

 

The Panthers’ angle here is two-fold and pretty straightforward: First, new Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay this past season, and Evans had a great year. Second, Carolina is probably the team most likely to throw an absolute bag at Evans to come serve as Bryce Young’s No. 1 wideout and also bring an exceptional veteran leader to a team that needs a culture shift. Evans withstood some dire times in Tampa but kept his head down and eventually got a ring.

 

It may not be super appealing to Evans who wants to win meaningful games. However, he pushed hard for an extension last offseason, so cashing in big one more time could be attractive as well.

 

The New York Jets need more receiving talent opposite Garrett Wilson, and this move is effectively the inverse of the above: Evans takes a bit less but joins Aaron Rodgers as he tries to replicate the Tom Brady run in Tampa.

 

Top free agent comparison: Kenny Golladay, 2021

 

17. WR MARQUISE BROWN, ARIZONA CARDINALS

Potential landing spot(s): Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans

 

Denver has the big-bodied jump ball receiver in Courtland Sutton and the shifty slot in Jerry Jeudy, at least for now, plus a rookie speedster in Marvin Mims, who was used sparingly but effectively. Brown adds a proven separator with the ability to break off routes at the intermediate and deep levels efficiently to create separation, and he would have the yards-after-catch ability the Broncos could stand to add.

 

Tennessee has the contested catch savant in DeAndre Hopkins and sophomore Treylon Burks as another big body who can win deep or catch bubble screens and get upfield when healthy, but Brown brings an entirely different dynamic to a passing game that desperately needs help. Hopkins is entering a contract year, so Brown is the pricy veteran for 2025 and beyond as Tennessee continues to rebuild.

 

Top free agent comparison: Christian Kirk, 2022

 

24. WR CALVIN RIDLEY, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Potential landing spot(s): Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs

 

With D.J. Moore in place, Chicago could get two players who are interchangeable as X-receivers up on the line and as good move/Z-receivers with alignment versatility. Both can create separation vertically, but Ridley could take the top off defenses even more and let Moore utilize his high-end after-the-catch abilities at the short and intermediate levels.

 

Kansas City has shown time and time again that it isn’t going to make free agent splashes on older players, but perhaps the Chiefs buy low on a very good player who fits their play style profile as a really good separator with late hands. Every single mock draft from now until Round 1 of the 2024 Draft kicks off will have Kansas City taking one of the many great wide receivers in this class, but now picking either 31st or 32nd overall, the Chiefs address their biggest need in March and still leave the door open for a rookie.

 

Top free agent comparison: Odell Beckham Jr., 2023

 

60. WR DARNELL MOONEY, CHICAGO BEARS

Potential landing spot(s): Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers

Mooney had a tough 2023 campaign but profiles as a Chiefs target even more than Ridley as a 26-year-old looking for his first veteran contract. The appeal here for both parties is perhaps exploring a deal akin to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s one-year flier in 2022, which was loaded with incentive upside that enables Mooney to leverage a career-year catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. Since Mooney joined the NFL in 2020, the Chicago Bears rank 32nd in total passing yards. The Chiefs, unsurprisingly, rank first.

 

The Chargers have some interesting in-house decisions with their own wide receivers, but they need to add more talent even after using their first-round pick in 2023 on Quentin Johnston. Mooney historically has created quick separation at the intermediate level, a skill set that would pair quite well with Justin Herbert. Jim Harbaugh may prioritize wide receivers that can block at a high level, but they have plenty of bigger bodies already.

 

Top free agent comparison: Emmanuel Sanders, 2014

 

63. WR GABRIEL DAVIS, BUFFALO BILLS

Potential landing spot(s): Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Davis is a fit in Atlanta as a solid run-blocker who can also take the top off opposing defenses with one of the highest average depth of targets in the NFL, creating space for Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons need another playmaker in the passing game, and Davis offers value even on dropbacks where he is not targeted. Defenses were able to stack the box and condense their coverage formations this past season, though part of that was of course due to the quarterback play, but Davis would make them pay in 2024.

 

Jacksonville may move on from Zay Jones this offseason with an $8 million price tag on the way after he was extremely inefficient in 2023, so Davis fills the void left by another former Buffalo Bills wide receiver with a different skill set than Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, who will continue to benefit from having field-stretchers opposite them.

 

Top free agent comparison: Devin Funchess, 2019

 

69. WR ODELL BECKHAM JR., BALTIMORE RAVENS

Potential landing spot(s): Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets

 

Beckham’s market surely won’t produce another fully guaranteed $15 million contract like it did last offseason with Baltimore, which used him sparingly in the playoffs despite that investment. He is now firmly in the ring-chasing mercenary stage of his career. The Cowboys still need more receiver talent for quarterback Dak Prescott, with veteran field-stretcher Brandin Cooks profiling as a solid third receiver and Michael Gallup not looking like the same player he was pre-ACL injury.

 

Beckham has mentioned many times that he’d like to play with Aaron Rodgers, and the Jets shadow general manager can hopefully make his first good signing this offseason after a very tough 2023.

 

Top free agent comparison: N/A

 

74. WR TYLER BOYD, CINCINNATI BENGALS

Potential landing spot(s): Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans

 

The Eagles’ lack of wide receiver depth has been an under-appreciated shortcoming for several years now, which is understandable given they have one of the game’s elite duos in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, but we saw in the playoff game against the Buccaneers how precipitously that depth chart drops off. Boyd brings in a sure-handed slot receiver that Jalen Hurts can get the ball out to quickly, not always having to buy himself time waiting for a downfield route to develop, which was certainly not always his fault. Nick Sirianni’s Colts roots have historically prioritized a slot that can catch passes underneath and run block, for example bringing Zach Pascal along with him from Indianapolis. Boyd obviously offers much more as a pass-catcher as well.

 

The Titans could also stand to add a short-area winner over the middle to help Will Levis take some of the easier completions instead of looking to hit a home run on every dropback.

 

Top free agent comparison: Robert Woods, 2023

 

76. WR CURTIS SAMUEL, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Potential landing spot(s): Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins

 

Bears star wideout D.J. Moore is very close friends with Samuel from their shared time with the Carolina Panthers, and perhaps there’s something to be taken about Moore’s influence in Chicago from the Bears hiring Moore’s former wide receivers coach at Maryland in Chris Beatty, though Beatty has had several college and NFL stops and is certainly a deserving candidate regardless. Samuel offers a skill set the Bears seemingly tried to acquire in drafting Velus Jones Jr. — he can carry the ball out of the backfield and also rack up yards after the catch from slot and wide alignments.

 

Miami adding another inside/outside athlete that continues the track speed trend would be a fun third option alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Mike McDaniel would surely take advantage of Samuel’s ability with the ball in his hands near the line of scrimmage, weaponizing plenty of pre-snap motion and diverse formations/alignments, and he can also still win over the top on occasion.

 

Top free agent comparison: Adam Humphries, 2019

 

87. WR KENDRICK BOURNE, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Potential landing spot(s): Indianapolis Colts

 

Bourne’s torn ACL was fortunately not too late in the season, going down in Week 8, but unfortunately disrupted a career year operating as the top receiving option on the team over the first half of the season. Bourne is a solid No. 3 wide receiver option with good route-running ability and clean footwork out of his breaks to create separation despite average athleticism. Indianapolis needs more depth behind their trio of young wideouts, and Bourne could be a really nice fit as a willing run blocker as well.

 

Top free agent comparison: James Jones, 2014

 

108. WR D.J. CHARK, CAROLINA PANTHERS

Potential landing spot(s): New York Jets, Washington Commanders

Chark has struggled to consistently separate going on a few years now and had some ill-timed drops in 2023, but the idea here is New York gets a bit of a Corey Davis replacement as the contested-catch player out wide with Aaron Rodgers willing to take shots deep.

 

Washington has two quick separators and intermediate winners in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, but a big-bodied vertical threat could open things up for this offense. If Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson does take the Commanders head coaching job, he worked with Chark on the 2022 Lions.

 

Top free agent comparison: Kenny Britt, 2015

 

115. WR MICHAEL THOMAS, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Potential landing spot(s): Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

A reunion with Sean Payton is the obvious link for our Denver call here, but Denver’s offense simply needs a possession receiver that can win on slants over the middle and out routes to the sidelines.

 

Pittsburgh brought Allen Robinson aboard to serve as the big slot possession receiver in 2023, and while his lack of production was not entirely his own doing, perhaps the Steelers take another swing with Thomas coming in as the No. 3 alongside Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Moving Johnson and Pickens into the slot more to help create more separation on out-breakers like corner routes, an area Pickens excelled in 2023, adds more versatility to the whole unit.

 

Top free agent comparison: A.J. Green, 2021

 

116. WR JOSH REYNOLDS, DETROIT LIONS

Potential landing spot(s): Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders

We must not let a tough outing in the NFC Championship Game from Reynolds distract us from the fact that he had a great season in Detroit, as he was always rock solid as a No. 3 receiver out wide who does well to find the soft spots in zones and can win at the intermediate levels. Reynolds was also an asset in the Lions’ run game.

 

This is another hypothetical connection between Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his suspected new team, though we can’t be certain. Reynolds is one of the culture builder/leader types that would make a ton of sense for a new coach to bring along with him to a new stop.

 

Top free agent comparison: Kamar Aiken, 2017

 

134. WR NICK WESTBROOK-IKHINE, TENNESSEE TITANS

Potential landing spot(s): Detroit Lions

Westbrook-Ikhine is the vertical field-stretcher with good run-blocking chops that could be a nice complementary piece in Detroit’s offense, and with big paydays looming for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and many others, they need to start filling out the roster with good value additions that fill a specific role well.

 

Top free agent comparison: Demarcus Robinson, 2020

 

142. WR K.J. OSBORN, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Potential landing spot(s): Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns

Osborn lined up primarily in the slot in 2022 and shifted outside in 2023. He’s a WR3/4 but has been productive in a very high-volume Vikings passing attack. Untimely drops plagued him in 2023 but he’d provide solid depth for a lot of teams, and one has to imagine with the addition of first-round rookie Jordan Addison and the emergence of Brandon Powell this past season that perhaps Minnesota works a bit harder to retain the speedy Powell on a cheaper deal.

 

With Marquise Goodwin, James Proche and Jakeem Grant all free agents, former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski recruits a Viking he didn’t coach but perhaps helped scout before taking the Browns head coaching job.

 

Top free agent comparison: Parris Campbell, 2023

 

144. WR NOAH BROWN, HOUSTON TEXANS

Potential landing spot(s): Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

If the Bengals let Tyler Boyd depart in free agency, they still may have in-house replacements with 2023 rookies Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas, but Brown is a big-bodied inside/outside replacement who did very well this season to get open for C.J. Stroud on broken plays, which makes him a good fit with Joe Burrow who maximizes the scramble drills as well as anyone.

 

Tampa, unfortunately, lost Russell Gage to another injury before the 2023 season, and even if they do retain Mike Evans, a solid No. 4 option behind Evans, Godwin and rookie Trey Palmer makes sense.

 

Top free agent comparison: Cecil Shorts, 2015

 

2024 DRAFT

A Mock Draft from Erik Edholm at NFL.com:

Here’s my first projection of how the entire first round will play out in Detroit when the 2024 NFL Draft begins on April 25.

 

As of this writing, the draft order for picks 1-30 is set. The order for picks 31 and 32 will be determined by the outcome of Super Bowl LVIII. Those picks are ordered in this mock based on regular-season record, with strength of schedule as the tiebreaker.

 

1  Chicago Bears  (via CAR) 

Caleb Williams                          USC · QB · Junior

At this point, I am assuming the Bears will move on from Justin Fields and select a quarterback in this slot. Williams might not be a can’t-miss prospect, but he’s better than his 2023 tape might indicate — and could end up as the best talent this franchise has ever had at the position.

 

2  Washington Commanders

Drake Maye                                 North Carolina · QB · Sophomore (RS)

Had Sam Howell played cleaner football this past season, perhaps this pick could have been flipped for a haul. But here, Howell must watch his former understudy at UNC essentially replace him. Maye wouldn’t need to be rushed into the lineup, but I doubt the Commanders would delay his ascension too long, given his highly appealing toolkit.

 

3  New England Patriots

Jayden Daniels                            LSU · QB · Senior

If there’s a lesson I’ve learned over the years, it’s that wherever you have quarterbacks going in your February mock drafts, there’s a darned good chance they’ll end up going higher than that come April. So let’s just skip that step and give the Patriots a style of quarterback they’ve never really had. I can’t wait to see an NFL offense built around Daniels’ talents.

 

4  Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr.                       Ohio State · WR · Junior

In Marvin Harrison Sr.’s day, quarterbacks were the 6-foot-4 guys, while receivers often had heights starting with a 5. But it’s a new era, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is a different breed from his Hall of Fame father — a presumably prolific one with Kyler Murray throwing him 50-50 balls. With Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and MHJ, the Cardinals would boast a bevy of fearsome YAC threats with size.

 

5  Los Angeles Chargers

Brock Bowers                                 Georgia · TE · Junior

Not everyone will agree with a tight end in the top five, even after Kyle Pitts broke that glass ceiling a few years ago and Sam LaPorta just played like one of the five best NFL rookies this season. Bowers — a California native who grew up a six-hour drive north of Los Angeles in wine country — could be the perfect weapon for Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, who can use Bowers like he did Vernon Davis in San Francisco.

 

6  New York Giants                     

Malik Nabers                                     LSU · WR · Junior

I strongly considered Rome Odunze here, but Nabers might have a slightly higher ceiling, giving Brian Daboll a cross between, say, Stefon Diggs and DJ Moore as his top wideout. This offense needs help in a number of areas, but the WR talent might be too rich to pass up at this spot.

 

7  Tennessee Titans   

Joe Alt                                            Notre Dame · OT · Junior

The Titans had trouble blocking people in 2023. Alt could be the dominant exterior blocker they’ve been seeking since injuries undermined Taylor Lewan’s career. Tennessee could go in a number of directions here, and I wouldn’t rule out a receiver, but Alt landing in Nashville just feels like an early slam dunk.

 

8  Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner                                   Alabama · Edge · Junior

I’m working under the assumption that the Falcons will pursue a veteran QB and try to add more offensive weapons at some point, but going with a skill-position player for a fourth straight year in Round 1 would feel like overkill. Why not supplement the pass rush instead? Turner would be a very good first pick in Atlanta for Raheem Morris, beefing up a DL unit that’s likely to see some personnel turnover this offseason.

 

9  Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze                               Washington · WR · Senior

Assuming the Bears trade Justin Fields in this hypothetical, they’ll have enough return on that deal to keep adding to the offensive line at some point. But giving Caleb Williams another outside weapon — and arguably a perfect complement to DJ Moore — might be too appealing a move to pass up on.

 

10 New York Jets

Taliese Fuaga                                  Oregon State · OT · Senior

The Jets need to add skill-position talent, but the offensive line absolutely must improve in 2024. And this just feels like a prospect general manager Joe Douglas could fall for. Although Fuaga played right tackle almost exclusively for the Beavers, he could be tried at guard if needed.

 

11  Minnesota Vikings

Jared Verse                                     Florida State · Edge · Senior

It’s no guarantee, of course, but if the Vikings can re-sign Kirk Cousins, addressing the defensive front might be the next order of business. I could see Minnesota adding multiple pieces up front, depending on what happens with another pending free agent in Danielle Hunter. Verse is an athletic tone-setter who would pass the Brian Flores test for toughness and aggression.

 

12  Denver Broncos

Byron Murphy II                              Texas · DT · Junior

I know many will pine for a quarterback, but I think the Broncos will be hard-pressed to land a worthy talent at the position in this lofty draft slot. Instead, they could pivot to upgrading the interior D-line with an explosive penetrator such as Murphy, even if this feels a tad high for him.

 

13  Las Vegas Raiders

JC Latham                                         Alabama · OT · Junior

Tom Telesco used his first pick as Chargers GM to select an Alabama right tackle (D.J. Fluker), and I could see him taking the same approach in his debut draft with the Raiders. Latham can upgrade right tackle, allowing Thayer Munford Jr. to kick inside, even if drafting another ‘Bama OT in Round 1 might give Raiders fans bad Alex Leatherwood flashbacks. Las Vegas needs to fortify the QB position, but the team might be able to address it in other ways. Maybe Michael Penix Jr. in Round 2?

 

14  New Orleans Saints

Olumuyiwa Fashanu                        Penn State · OT · Junior (RS)

One way or another, the Saints need to address the offensive line, even if they’ve already used ample assets on the position group. Trevor Penning’s development has been disappointing, and Ryan Ramczyk’s long-term health is a worry. Andrus Peat is also a free agent. Fashanu isn’t the top-10 lock some think he is and needs to deal with power better, but he has a high ceiling with rare gifts.

 

15  Indianapolis Colts

Terrion Arnold                          Alabama · CB · Sophomore (RS)

GM Chris Ballard is a patient drafter, often letting the talent come to him and allowing the board speak to who should be picked. Arnold would be a good value here. We haven’t seen DB1 come off the board this late since 2019, so the Alabama corner could go higher, but he fits a Colts need and could start Day 1 opposite JuJu Brents.

 

16  Seattle Seahawks

Troy Fautanu                                Washington · OL · Senior

New Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald might want to upgrade his defensive personnel, but the offensive line can’t be overlooked. Fautanu was a college left tackle and could play there in the NFL, but he also has excellent potential inside, where the ‘Hawks could use the upgrade. And Seattle should be pretty familiar with the University of Washington product’s game.

 

17  Jacksonville Jaguars

Laiatu Latu                                   UCLA · Edge · Senior

This pick might not work for the Jaguars if they keep Josh Allen from bolting in free agency, and Latu’s arm length isn’t exactly what GM Trent Baalke typically seeks in an edge, but finding a pass-rushing partner for Travon Walker will be pretty essential if Allen does ultimately depart Duval. Latu was a highly productive college player with a deep bag of pass-rush tricks.

 

18  Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Guyton                               Oklahoma · OT · Senior

After watching Senior Bowl practices in Mobile, I’m afraid I might have Guyton too low here. He’s not the most experienced tackle in this class, but the Oklahoma product has more upside than a few linemen I have going earlier. Wide receiver could wind up being a need for Cincinnati, especially if Tee Higgins leaves in free agency. But if Jonah Williams departs, OT might be a more pressing need.

 

19  Los Angeles Rams

J.J. McCarthy                                Michigan · QB · Junior

The Rams’ first first-round selection since they took Jared Goff at No. 1 overall is another quarterback — go figure. Matthew Stafford might be approaching the 17th green of his career, and McCarthy needs time to marinate his fascinating toolset. He’s a Midwest kid, but McCarthy has displayed some California cool in crunch time — and he’s savvy enough to digest Sean McVay’s system.

 

20  Pittsburgh Steelers

Quinyon Mitchell                             Toledo · CB · Senior

Another Senior Bowl standout who might be too low in this simulation, Mitchell would be an excellent addition to a team that plays a healthy amount of man coverage, which is where the Toledo product could be at his best. With Joey Porter Jr. and Mitchell, the Steelers could combat the excellent receivers of the AFC North more effectively.

 

21  Miami Dolphins

Jackson Powers-Johnson                 Oregon · IOL · Junior

Mike McDaniel’s offense could use an upgrade on the interior offensive line, and I believe Powers-Johnson has the movement skills and acumen to be effective inside at either guard or center. There’s not a ton of worry about the hamstring strain that caused JPJ to drop out of the Senior Bowl being a long-term issue.

 

22  Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Thomas Jr.                                   LSU · WR · Junior

The strange vibes around A.J. Brown and the Eagles make me wonder if a first-round receiver might be in play. I think Thomas ultimately could rise above this range of the draft, but it’s also a deep WR class at the top, so you never know. And it wouldn’t be the first time the Eagles grabbed a free-falling talent at a need position in Round 1.

 

23  Houston Texans  (via CLE)

Nate Wiggins                                          Clemson · CB · Junior

There’s a strong case for using this selection to upgrade the talent around C.J. Stroud on offense, but the Texans also have some pressing defensive needs to consider. CB Steven Nelson is a free agent-to-be. Wiggins would give Houston a long, athletically gifted complement to Derek Stingley Jr.

 

24  Dallas Cowboys

Amarius Mims                                           Georgia · OT · Junior

Tyron Smith is a pending free agent, potentially opening up a big OL job. The hulking Mims is a tricky evaluation because of a lack of experience and some holes in his game. But as with the Tyler Smith pick a couple years ago, the Cowboys might be willing to gamble on upside and hope that enmeshing Mims with a talented group will give him a strong shot to succeed.

 

25  Green Bay Packers

Cooper DeJean                                      Iowa · DB · Junior

The Packers have needs at corner and safety, and I believe DeJean could end up at either spot in the NFL. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has used a lot of single-high looks, and I can picture a player like the rangy DeJean fitting that role. Plus, Green Bay has enjoyed a long history of drafting successful Hawkeyes, for whatever that’s worth.

 

26  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Keon Coleman                                            Florida State · WR · Junior

Depending on what happens with pending free agent Mike Evans, the Bucs might need a wide receiver who can complement Chris Godwin. Coleman can’t fly, but he has acrobatic receiving skills, can play inside and out and would be a big red-zone target for Baker Mayfield, assuming he’s back.

 

27  Arizona Cardinals (via HOU)

Bralen Trice                                                Washington · Edge · Senior

I could see the Cardinals overlooking some middling athletic testing numbers if Trice doesn’t kill it in Indy, given his impressive tape at Washington. It’s a thinner draft up top at edge rusher, and Trice is the type of smart, tough finisher who’d be a great building block for Jonathan Gannon’s defense.

 

28  Buffalo Bills

Troy Franklin                                               Oregon · WR · Junior

I’m not 100 percent convinced this will be a receiver come April the way some folks are, but one way or another, the Bills must bolster the position — and the draft would be the most efficient way to do so. The cap is getting awfully tight with Josh Allen’s contract taking a big step up this year. Franklin’s speed and size would make for a good upgrade over free agent Gabe Davis.

 

29  Detroit Lions

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.                                     Missouri · CB · Junior (RS)

Detroit was forced to shuffle its secondary this season and needs better coverage options outside. Rakestraw’s medical evaluation (torn ACL in 2021, groin surgery in December) could determine whether he cracks Round 1, but his profile fits what the Lions seek. He’s tough-minded, a willing tackler and adept in man coverage. Fun fact: GM Brad Holmes’ first pro day as an NFL scout was at Mizzou.

 

30  Baltimore Ravens

Jer’Zhan Newton                                          Illinois · DT · Senior

The Ravens likely will do everything in their power to bring back free agent-to-be Justin Madubuike, but if they can’t (or are forced to franchise tag him), Newton could be an intriguing addition to the defensive line, assuming they view him as a fit with their odd front. He’s a skilled rusher whose superpower is his ability to disrupt blocking schemes.

 

31  Kansas City Chiefs

Darius Robinson                                           Missouri · Edge · Senior

Yes, the Chiefs have dipped into Mizzou’s talent pool in recent years, but this isn’t geographical bias. If they’re going to let Chris Jones walk, Robinson might be the best replacement in this draft — and truthfully, he could go higher than this. At a hefty 286 pounds, Robinson would also be a different type of edge than last year’s first-rounder, Felix Anudike-Uzomah. And there’s enough WR depth in this draft for Kansas City to consider waiting on addressing that need.

 

32  San Francisco 49ers

Graham Barton                                               Duke · IOL · Senior

Barton is another college left tackle whose best pro position might be inside. The 49ers technically have depth needs inside and out on the offensive line, but this Duke product could be a good enough player to start at either guard or center as a rookie. Barton has played center before and might have Pro Bowl potential there.