NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(more in GREEN BAY and TAMPA BAY)

Peter King on Green Bay’s decision to kick the field goal:

One more bit of drama, of course. With 2:15 left, Green Bay was down 31-23. Third-and-goal from the Bucs’ 8-yard line. Then this happened:

We’re not in the arena; Aaron Rodgers is. But I was poleaxed by Rodgers’ decision here. Look at his choices. He had a pasture of grass to his right and likely could have scored by running there. But he chose to throw a gopher ball into the middle of a scrum, incomplete to Davante Adams and two Bucs at the goal line. Just a strange decision—and it set the stage for another strange one. LaFleur chose on fourth down to kick the chippy field goal, narrowing the deficit to 31-26 with 2:05 left. And he gambled on his defense to stop the GOAT so Rodgers would have one last chance with, say, 90 seconds to go and needs a touchdown to win.

Green Bay never touched the ball again. The second-year coach seemed influenced by three straight Rodgers incompletions when he made his call. “Having three shots and coming away with no yards and knowing you not only need the touchdown but the two-point [conversion],” LaFleur said. “Anytime something doesn’t work out, do you regret it? Sure.”

Like most, the DB expected the Packers to go for it on fourth down.  But somewhere on Twitter, we saw a model that said Green Bay’s chances of winning were 10% with a fourth down attempt, 9% with a field goal.  Connor Orr of SI.com with more (and a good point in his final sentence):

If you were anything like us, you may have spent the first few minutes after the Packers decided to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the eight-yard line with 2:05 remaining in the NFC championship wondering whether there was something you might have missed.

The refinement of in-game decision-making analytics, which were some of the first widely utilized probability concepts of the modern analytics boon, are complex enough to throw the lay fan a curveball from time to time. Perhaps a field goal, which cut Green Bay’s deficit from eight to five, was the sensible maneuver.

Of course, that wasn’t the case. ESPN’s analytics department said the disparity was not large, but going for it on fourth down and subsequently trying for the two-point conversion would have given the Packers roughly a 0.5% greater chance of winning the game than kicking the field goal and taking the chance that they would get another possession and score a touchdown. EdjSports, another fine analytics outfit, said that the decision cost Green Bay 3% pre-snap in their Game Winning Chance model. And in fairness to LaFleur, at least one model showed the field goal as a slight edge, though it’s unknown if that model took into account 1) Having Aaron Rodgers and 2) Giving the ball to Tom Brady.

The last model cited by Orr is here:

@DavidowMatthew

Green Bay gains 2.5% win chance, 27.5% vs 25%, by kicking a field goal 4th and goal from 8. Been awhile since FG was correct, but Lafleur nails it.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(more in BUFFALO and KANSAS CITY)

Nick Shook of NFL.com on lessons from the AFC Championship Game:

1) The box score and the game tape from this one looked a lot like most of the Chiefs’ wins. Kansas City peppered its offensive possessions with gains of 10-15 yards, taking what the Buffalo defense gave it as the Bills aimed to prevent the explosive plays for which the Chiefs are well known. The problem was the Chiefs’ smaller chunks turned into explosive plays, and by the time we got to the second half, the Chiefs had posted three touchdown drives of five minutes or less. It comes as a surprise to very few to see that Tyreek Hill finished with nine catches for 172 yards, Travis Kelce caught 13 balls for 118 yards and two touchdowns, and Patrick Mahomes finished with a passer rating north of 127. Kansas City provided the internet with a bushel of easy-to-share clips of Hill streaking down the field and Mahomes extending plays to find open targets for big gains, all with the same theme for the unfortunate defenses trying to stop them. In the end, it was once again simple: Buffalo couldn’t do it, just as Cleveland couldn’t, nor could the vast majority of teams the Chiefs faced in the regular season. Save for a futile comeback attempt to make the score a little more respectable, the Bills lost this track meet by a wide margin in a fashion that’s all too familiar to the many clubs unfortunate enough to find themselves in Kansas City’s path.

2) The exciting showdown so many of us thought was coming never materialized because the Bills’ explosive offense couldn’t get its gunpowder out of the barrels it had rolled out onto its sideline. Credit is due to Kansas City’s defense, which sabotaged Buffalo’s attempts to put significant points on the board by limiting the Bills to a 5-of-14 night on third down, and held Buffalo to three field goals on trips into Kansas City territory — including two possessions that ended inside the 10-yard line. The key to Kansas City’s defensive success centered largely on the Chiefs’ ability to take Stefon Diggs out of the game. At halftime, Diggs had just two catches for 12 yards, and he reached the start of the fourth quarter with a total of four receptions for 28 yards. Josh Allen was forced to look elsewhere, finding early success in short-yardage situations by dumping it off to tight end Dawson Knox, but without his top receiver making much of an impact and no rushing game to speak of (Allen led the Bills with 88 yards on seven attempts), Buffalo’s offense entered a rut it couldn’t lift itself out of until the game was already decided. Add in Kansas City’s ability to get after Allen — the Chiefs pressured him on 25 percent of his drop-backs, holding him to a completion percentage of 33.3 on such attempts — and their four sacks for a combined loss of 53 yards, and we saw what a watered-down Bills offense would look like in a pivotal contest.

3) It’s interesting (if not downright frustrating) to witness coaches who typically direct their teams fearlessly then suddenly tighten up in big moments, pivoting to taking the points just to keep a game somewhat within reach instead of flirting with a blowout. That was Sean McDermott’s approach Sunday evening. McDermott sent the field goal unit out for an attempt with the ball at Kansas City’s 2-yard line just before halftime in a 21-9 game, then did it again from Kansas City’s 8-yard line in a 24-12 game midway through the third quarter. Sure, it kept the Bills within striking distance — if a touchdown plus a field goal is considered striking distance against the league’s most explosive offense — but it didn’t make the dent that is absolutely essential to attempting to take down the reigning champs. It wasn’t until the Bills were down, 38-15, that McDermott threw caution to a wind that had already swept away his team a quarter earlier, going for it on fourth-and-1 to extend a drive that ended in a touchdown pass to Isaiah McKenzie to cut the deficit to 38-21. And even then, Buffalo’s two-point conversion attempt failed via interception in the end zone. Too often, the Bills were on the doorstep of matching Chiefs touchdowns with their own, but elected to take the points and keep the score within nine, burning precious time and wasting away rare opportunities to try to keep pace with the fast-moving Chiefs. There’s coaching to win, there’s coaching to not lose, and there’s coaching to not lose by a huge difference in points. Only one of those actually wins you the game, and in a massive moment like Sunday night’s conference championship game, McDermott did not coach to wrest the AFC crown from the Chiefs’ grasp.

SUPER BOWL 55

This from NFLDB on the current run of championship events involving teams from Tampa Bay:

3 championship game/series appearances in under 6 months for TB.  Last happened in 1980 in Philadelphia with Flyers, Sixers and Phillies (then Eagles in January)

A connection from Peter King:

No team has won consecutive Super Bowls since New England in 2003 and 2004—Brady’s second and third of six New England titles. Kansas City will have that chance. In the ’04 repeat, the Patriots won 24-21 over Philadelphia . . . and head coach Andy Reid.

– – –

Teams will be on a regular season travel schedule for Super Bowl 55 per Adam Schefter of ESPN.com – at the command of the NFL, but in all likelihood without protest:

In a season unlike any other, Super Bowl week also will not be like any other.

Super Bowl teams always arrive in the city of the game one week in advance, but this season’s participants are not allowed to arrive in Tampa, Florida, any earlier than the Friday before Super Bowl LV, league sources told ESPN.

If the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers win their conference championship games Sunday, they have tentative plans to arrive in Tampa on Friday, Feb. 5, two days before the Super Bowl, according to sources.

If the Kansas City Chiefs advance to the Super Bowl, they do not plan to arrive in Tampa until the day before the Super Bowl, according to sources.

The fourth team involved in Sunday’s conference championship games is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who spent the week practicing opposite Raymond James Stadium, in clear sight of the Super Bowl LV banners now hanging on the stadium.

All of these changes and adaptations are being done to keep teams in the COVID-19 prevention routines they have adhered to all season. Teams now will be approaching the Super Bowl like it’s any other road trip during the season, rather than a trip to the biggest game of the season.

This also means that Super Bowl media day, the Monday night event that has become a Super Bowl staple, will be done virtually. News conferences that have been held with players and coaches also will be done virtually.

Many of the other events associated with Super Bowl week also will go virtual or be canceled, according to a source. Even the post-Super Bowl parties for the winning and losing teams are not certain. Teams have the option of flying home immediately after the game.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

The Matthew Stafford Era will come to a mutual end in Detroit.  Adam Schefter ofESPN.com has the story:

In an arrangement the two sides have discussed and mutually agreed upon, quarterback Matthew Stafford is expected to not return to the Lions this offseason, with Detroit listening to trade offers starting this week, league sources told ESPN on Saturday.

With new general manager Brad Holmes and new head coach Dan Campbell now in place, the Lions will soon begin trade discussions that most likely will result in a new quarterback for the team — largely influenced by what and whom Detroit will get in exchange for Stafford, sources told ESPN.

The Lions are expected to receive at least a first-round pick, league sources said.

Stafford approached the Lions about the possibility of a trade being in the best interest of both parties, but the franchise tabled that discussion until completing the coach and GM searches, a source told ESPN’s Michael Rothstein.

Holmes and Campbell were told before they were hired that trading Stafford could be a possibility, sources told ESPN. Stafford then had a call with higher-ups — including Campbell and Holmes — late this week and the decision was made to pursue a trade, a source told Rothstein.

Stafford, who has not had a playoff win in his 12 seasons with the Lions, is expected to bring back a handsome return for multiple reasons. He turns 33 in March, has two years remaining on a team-friendly contract that is due to pay him a combined $43 million — $20 million this year and $23 million next year — and he still is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league.

He has started 165 games for the Lions since being taken No. 1 overall in the 2009 draft, completing 62.6% of his passes for 45,109 yards, 282 touchdowns and 144 interceptions. He led 38 game-winning drives during his career and 31 fourth-quarter comebacks — making him one of the better comeback quarterbacks in league history.

He’s tied for eighth all time in game-winning drives and seventh in fourth-quarter comebacks.

Stafford becomes the latest in a long line of quarterbacks expected to be available this offseason.

In addition to Stafford being on the trading block, Houston might be forced into the same situation with Deshaun Watson, and Philadelphia could decide to move on from Carson Wentz.

Indianapolis needs to replace the recently retired Philip Rivers, and New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Washington might be facing similar situations with Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Alex Smith, respectively.

Carolina will explore its options at the position and there are lingering quarterback questions with teams such as Denver, Chicago and San Francisco.

The free-agent class is scheduled to include quarterbacks Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jacoby Brissett, Colt McCoy and Nate Sudfeld.

This tweet from Michael David Smith:

@MichaelDavSmith

Matthew Stafford made $226 million from 2009 to 2020.

Tom Brady made $196 million from 2009 to 2020.

Various scribes from The Athletic put forth candidates for Stafford’s service:

Mike Sando, national writer: The Saints, Colts and 49ers are three teams I love as destinations for Stafford this offseason. All three are relatively strong in the areas that have prevented Detroit from winning during Stafford’s tenure with the team. The Lions ranked 32nd this past season in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense and special teams. They have ranked higher than 15th just twice during Stafford’s career. It’s no wonder Stafford wants out. Even the best quarterbacks need more support than that to win big.

The Saints, Colts and 49ers are three teams that could give Stafford the support that Detroit simply has never supplied, while also pairing him with offensive-minded head coaches possessing Super Bowl pedigrees. New Orleans was sixth, Indy was ninth and San Francisco was 14th in combined EPA on defense and special teams this past season. It just so happens that all three teams should be in the market for quarterback upgrades. Stafford would be an upgrade at all three spots with Drew Brees likely retiring, Philip Rivers already having announced his retirement and Jimmy Garoppolo potentially vulnerable in San Francisco.

Every one of those teams has done a good job of taking pressure off its quarterbacks through scheme, play calling and/or solid offensive line play, while also fielding competent units on defense. What more could Stafford want? How about favorable playing conditions? The Saints and Colts play indoors, while the 49ers frequently have warm weather in Santa Clara.

If Stafford joined one of those teams, he could enjoy the sort of career revival Carson Palmer experienced after leaving Cincinnati and Oakland for Arizona.

Matt Barrows, 49ers writer: Stafford probably is better than Jimmy Garoppolo. He certainly is more experienced, has been far more durable and has the bigger arm. He’d give the 49ers a deep-passing option, which has been missing in action under Garoppolo. But how much better is he? Stafford isn’t elite. If he were, the Lions would have been a perennial winner like the Patriots were under Tom Brady, the Saints were under Drew Brees and the Seahawks have been under Russell Wilson. The Lions haven’t been anywhere near as good as those teams. In fact, they’ve had a winning record in four of the 12 seasons Stafford has been in Detroit.

Garoppolo has taken a beating for failing to rise to the occasion in the fourth quarter of the 2019 season’s Super Bowl, perhaps justifiably so. Still, he is 2-1 in the postseason in the three years he’s been a starter. In 12 seasons, Stafford is 0-3 with a four-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The 49ers would save $4.1 million on their cramped 2021 salary cap by acquiring Stafford and trading or cutting Garoppolo. They’d also have to part with draft picks, likely including the No. 12 selection in the upcoming draft. Sure, they could recoup something by trading Garoppolo. But which teams are going to be eager to pick up the remainder of his contract, which calls for him to count nearly $27 million against the cap in 2021? Garoppolo also reportedly has a no-trade clause in his contract. In a scenario in which they acquired Stafford, the 49ers likely would have to release Garoppolo.

The 49ers could have added the NFL’s best quarterback in the last quarter-century, Tom Brady, in the offseason but chose to stick with Garoppolo. Have their feelings about him changed so dramatically that they’d ditch him — and draft picks — for Stafford?

Lindsay Jones, national writer: This is going to be a wildly interesting few weeks (it is not rare for teams to agree to deal a veteran quarterback in late January or early February — see Alex Smith, twice), with two legitimate franchise quarterbacks, Stafford and Deshaun Watson, on the market. It should be easier to pull off a deal for Stafford, and I would expect a very active market. I agree with the teams Sando and Barrows have mentioned above. I would think the Colts would have to be the most attractive to Stafford, if he were to get his say in this deal. (He might not, though trading him outside of the NFC could help the Lions’ new brain trust make this happen.) The Colts provide a stable offensive infrastructure, a quarterback-friendly head coach, a solid-to-very-good offensive line and young talent on offense and defense. The Colts are playoff-ready and clearly need a quarterback. It almost makes too much sense for this not to happen.

As our Denver-based national writer, I feel obligated to mention the Broncos as a potential wild-card option here. With a new general manager (and George Paton has surely studied Stafford extensively during his years as Rick Spielman’s assistant in Minnesota), Drew Lock’s future is unknown. Stafford very clearly fits the physical profile of John Elway’s ideal quarterback, and while Elway is no longer making the final call on football decisions, this sounds like a swing the Broncos might take (more likely than pursuing Watson).

Sheil Kapadia, national writer: The four teams that immediately come to mind have been mentioned above: the Colts, 49ers, Broncos and Saints. The Colts showed last offseason that they’re willing to take a big swing, and they believe their roster is ready to win now. Philip Rivers played relatively well but was 19th overall in QBR. In other words, there’s definitely room to upgrade at quarterback there. And the thing is, the Colts have to make a move at quarterback. They can weigh their options with Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz and others. But getting Stafford on a team-friendly deal at 33 years old might be really appealing.

My colleagues have covered the Niners’ fit well. It would be fun to see what Stafford’s ceiling would be in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. And how about a scenario where Sean Payton goes from Drew Brees to Stafford? The Saints and 49ers would be legit Super Bowl contenders if they added Stafford. The Broncos could be intriguing. Vic Fangio is going to get the most out of that defense. They have young, talented wide receivers. And their biggest problem is at quarterback.

Two potential dark horses: Washington and Dallas. The case for Washington is obvious. It could again have a good defense in 2021 but needs a QB. And the case for the Cowboys may be the most fun hypothetical. They could try to tag and trade Dak Prescott and swing a deal to acquire Stafford. Prescott on a second franchise tag in 2021 would cost around $37 million. The Cowboys could have Stafford for the next two seasons for a total of $43 million. Would there be a team out there that would want to sign Prescott to a long-term deal and be willing to give up a first-round pick for him? Maybe. The Cowboys could use that pick or their own first-rounder to land Stafford. I think I just talked myself into this one. I’m rooting for complete chaos this offseason.

Ben Standig, Washington Football Team writer: I’ll pick up the Washington angle Sheil mentioned, starting with the defense. It’s not just that the Washington defense was good last season — though not as good as the statistics suggested. More important, it’s cheap. Every starter on the defensive line — recent first-round selections Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat and likely defensive rookie of the year Chase Young — is on his rookie contract. Allen would play on the fifth-year option without an extension.

That formidable foursome (plus 2019 sack leader Matt Ioannidis) starts becoming expensive soon, but Washington could keep them together for the next two seasons. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin hits free agency in 2023, the same year as Ioannidis and starting right tackle Morgan Moses. With the fifth-most available cap space, according to Spotrac, Washington could sign players to extensions or attack free agency to fill needs beyond quarterback.

Washington made strides this past season, more than doubling its previous season’s win total. However, by winning the NFC East, it made the chances of a repeat or 9-11 wins more challenging, especially with the current quarterback scenario of Alex Smith, exclusive-rights free agent Kyle Allen and restricted free agent Taylor Heinicke. Washington can move on from Smith with roughly a $10 million cap hit, and while the coaching staff likes Allen, he’s realistically a replacement-level option. That won’t cut it if Washington wants to make a move in the NFC and believes its window to win is open right now.

Oh, and Martin Mayhew, Washington’s new general manager and part of Ron Rivera’s new brain trust, is the guy who selected Stafford No. 1 in the 2009 NFL Draft. Just saying.

Chris Burke, Lions writer: Having bounced this idea off our Panthers beat writer, Joe Person, I’m going to add Carolina to the mix here. That franchise would have to figure some way out of Teddy Bridgewater’s contract (or just eat its losses), but the Panthers’ current ceiling is capped without an upgrade at quarterback. Can you imagine the numbers Stafford could put up in a Joe Brady offense, with guys like Christian McCaffrey and Robby Anderson alongside him?

Otherwise, I’ll echo the others who have mentioned Indianapolis and San Francisco. The Colts are almost too obvious — Super Bowl contender, great running game, stout defense, ample cap space. They paid Philip Rivers $25 million this year and could have Stafford for $5 million less next season. That’s probably worth pick No. 21 and/or whatever else. Plus, as banged-up as Stafford has been the past few years, he still would be a step up from the 2020 version of Rivers.

The Rams wouldn’t call, right? I know Jared Goff just signed a massive extension in 2019, but the confidence level in his ability can’t be that high out in L.A. Plus, the Lions just hired their new GM from the Rams organization. Maybe I spent too much time watching Bob Quinn trade with Bill Belichick.

Nick Baumgardner, Lions writer: This could be pretty fascinating, as Stafford — if he’s healthy — can fit into a number of different systems. Stafford and Shanahan, as mentioned above here, is the duo that I’d be most interested to see. Stafford’s work with a competent, creative run game could prove to be pretty dynamic and would be a major upgrade in San Francisco immediately.

Chris brought up Stafford and Joe Brady, and now I can’t stop thinking about that. Stafford would give the Colts an immediate upgrade over where Philip Rivers was a year ago. The play-action possibilities with Stafford’s shot ability and Indy’s offensive line could be something to see. The Saints also make plenty of sense as Sean Payton’s more than capable of fitting his offense around Stafford’s right arm.

If his health cooperates, Stafford can make any contender better. He had some injuries to work through this season, but his back did hold up. That might be the most important thing to note here as people wonder about how much longer Stafford has. He had a serious back injury that cost him half of 2019. There were back problems in 2018. If he’s good to go on that front, this could make him even more valuable.

Here is the take from Peter King:

Arguments are about to ensue over the value of Stafford, who turns 33 on Super Sunday. Fact is, he’s been a highly productive quarterback who’s never won a damn thing. Whose fault is that? The Lions’ mostly. With a revolving door of coaches, GMs and cultures, Detroit has not surrounded a very good quarterback with equitable talent. But if you draft a quarterback first overall, and that quarterback plays for your team for 12 years and is mostly healthy and a good locker-room guy, and he has a good receiver group in most seasons, what would you think about paying him $219 million and he never won a game in the postseason?

I can hear it now: Quarterback wins isn’t a stat. Here’s a few stats. It’s 2013. Thanksgiving Day. Lions maul the Packers 40-10, and after 12 games of the season, Detroit is 7-5 with a 1.5-game lead on the Packers entering December. In the final month of the season, Detroit goes 0-4, averages 17 points a game, and with a defensive wall of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, has one of its best teams of the Stafford era. The Lions finished third in the NFC North at 7-9.

That’s one snapshot. It should not damn Stafford to a legacy of losing. He’s been a shining light for a bad franchise and deserves to have a chance to win in the last few years of his career.

Stafford reportedly personally asked owner Sheila Ford Hamp for a trade after the season. If the Lions do trade him—per Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, they will try (and Pelissero is absolutely correct)—what sort of market will there be? Robust, I would think. But with not quite the pot of gold in return. The likely prospects, plus what would be equitable for each franchise:

1. Colts. Easy pick. Frank Reich needs a quarterback and with the likelihood that Carson Wentz will stay in Philly, Stafford is the best option for a cap-rich team. Compensation: 21st overall pick in the 2021 draft.

2. Broncos. Doubt new GM George Paton, who has watched Stafford closely for 12 years while in Minnesota, would be sold on Drew Lock. Competition needed. Compensation: Two second-round picks (including 39th overall this year). Or Lock plus this year’s second-rounder.

3. Patriots. Bill Belichick, as he did when he first got to New England, got his cap in decent shape with one lousy year as payment. But would he be willing to pay the 15th overall pick for Stafford? He should be. Compensation: 15th overall pick.

4. Niners. Intriguing. San Francisco talks a big game about loving Jimmy Garoppolo, and maybe the franchise does. We’ll see. Compensation: Garoppolo and a 2022 second-round pick.

5. Washington. WFT has the defense to compete at a high level now. If I’m Ron Rivera, I try to convince Comeback Player of the Year Alex Smith to stay and back up a franchise passer like Stafford for the next couple of years. Compensation: 19th overall pick. (If I’m Detroit, signing free-agent-to-be Taylor Heinicke would be some interesting, and smart, insurance.)

6. Steelers. Not Pittsburgh’s style to nudge Ben Roethlisberger into retirement, but did you see the Statuesque One in the last month of the season? Compensation: 24th overall pick in the draft.

7. Saints. The cap is strangling New Orleans, but let GM Mickey Loomis figure that out. Sean Payton is gutsy and loves the splash and has the guts of a burglar. Compensation: 28th pick in the draft (and Detroit should backstop the future by signing Jameis Winston in free agency).

– – –

The new Lions QB will run an offense coordinated by former Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn.  Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com:

New Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell is reportedly bringing in an offensive mind with great coaching experience who could help in his mission to turn the franchise around. On Saturday, ESPN’s Dan Graziano reported that the Lions will be hiring former Los Angeles Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn as their new offensive coordinator. According to Adam Schefter, Lynn had options as an offensive coordinator, but wanted to work with Campbell and then new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who played for the Dallas Cowboys when Lynn was in Dallas.

Lynn spent time in the league as a running backs coach for several teams, but took over as the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator and then interim head coach in 2016. From there, he was hired by the Chargers and given his first chance as a full-time head coach, and spent four seasons in L.A. before being let go this offseason. Lynn went 33-31 with the Chargers, and while he went 12-4 in 2018 and got L.A. to the divisional round, injuries seemed to always hamper his teams. Lynn will be working with a new quarterback in 2021, as Matthew Stafford and the Lions agreed to part ways this offseason. The Lions own the No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, so it’s possible that Detroit could be targeting a quarterback with its top pick

Lynn was rumored to be among the Seattle Seahawks’ top choices for offensive coordinator, but it appears he chose to start over as a coordinator with the Lions. The 52-year-old is joining a charismatic staff that is set on changing the culture in Detroit. In Thursday’s introductory press conference, Campbell gave an emotional speech about the attitude and mindset his team will embody.

GREEN BAY

In the aftermath of Sunday’s loss, QB AARON RODGERS was acting like someone who might be at a crossroads.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last year, after the Packers lost 37-20 to the 49ers in the NFC Championship, quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemed surprisingly upbeat and optimistic when talking to reporters. On Sunday, after the Packers lost 31-26 to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship, Rodgers expressed a far different vibe.

“I’m just pretty gutted,” Rodgers said following the home game against Tampa Bay, speaking slowly and deliberately, as he seemed to search for the right words. “It’s a long season. You put so much into it to get to this point and then, you know, the way — you know, we had our chances, so you know I’m not — different position than the last couple of these when we got blown out and really didn’t have a chance. . . . We had a lot of chances. . . . This one definitely stings and is going to for a long time.”

Near the end of the session with reporters, Rodgers began to talk about the inevitable changes that will come to the Packers. Without prompting, he veered toward a discussion of his own future.

“A lot of guys futures that are, you know, uncertain, myself included,” Rodgers said. “That’s what’s sad about it most. . . . Just the uncertainties is tough and the finality of it all.”

Rodgers next was asked how the team will take the next step.

“I don’t know, I really don’t,” he said. “There’s a lot of unknowns going into this offseason now. And I’m going to have to take some time away for sure and clear my head and just kind of see what’s going on with everything. But it’s pretty tough right now, especially thinking about the guys that may or may not be here next year. There’s always change. That’s the only constant in this business.”

Consider what Rodgers said last year, immediately after the Packers were overpowered by San Francisco.

“The window is open for us, and that’s the exciting thing,” Rodgers said at the time. “I think we’re gonna be on the right side of one of these real soon.”

Rodgers, in that same session, gushed about the 2019 season in Green Bay.

“This one is special because it became fun again,” Rodgers said. “I wouldn’t say this was our most talented team, but neither was 2010. And we just found a way.”

This year, the team was better. They earned the top seed. They had the only bye in the NFC. They easily handled the Rams. Then it all came crashing down. And Rodgers said not a word as the dust settled about the season being fun.

Rodgers words and tone prompted some reporters to wonder whether he’ll be one of the changes made in 2021. While it’s premature to come to any such conclusions, the outcome seems to hinge on whatever Rodgers decides after he clears his head. But he’s the one who mentioned his uncertain future, and he’s not known for speaking recklessly or without meaning to his words.

Surely, Rodgers is wondering at some level whether the first-round pick that went to a player who held a clipboard all year — and the fourth-round pick used to trade up for quarterback Jordan Love — would have made a difference on Sunday, with up to 18 NFL games under their belts. Surely, he’s wondering why the decision was made to not take advantage of the ball being eight yards from a touchdown that, with a two-point conversion, would have forced overtime.

Rodgers seemed to set aside any frustration emanating from the Jordan Love situation and to embrace the 2020 Packers, playing well enough to become the presumptive league MVP. Now, with Rodgers himself flagging the issue of his football future, everyone will have to simply wait and see what happens next.

More thoughts from Florio:

No one would be considering the possibility today that Aaron Rodgers has played his final game in a yellow helmet with a G on each side if he hadn’t veered unprompted into a discussion about his uncertain future after Sunday’s season-ending loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Rodgers’ comments were sufficiently striking to cause multiple reporters who have covered the team for a long time to sense something ominous in his words.

It’s easy to dismiss the notion that the Packers would want to move on from Rodgers. They surely didn’t trade up to pick quarterback Jordan Love with the idea of swapping out Rodgers for Love after one season, especially when Rodgers had one of the most brilliant seasons of his career. But what the team wants is one thing; what Rodgers wants is another.

Some in the media are quick to dismiss the notion of Rodgers wanting out, or of Rodgers getting out. Why is that? Are they stuck in an outdated way of thinking about football players and their ability to shape their own destinies? Some in the media simply may not want to be bothered with spending time and effort working on a story that has a good chance of going nowhere, especially if Rodgers decides after taking some time to think things through that he’s all in for another year in Green Bay, and maybe more.

Regardless, Rodgers dropped this possible turd in the offseason punch bowl, not anyone else. It’s up to the rest of us to figure out whether it’s the real thing or a Baby Ruth.

Five days ago, Rodgers described his future as a “beautiful mystery.” The context of those comments suggested that he was acknowledging the possibility that the Packers would choose to make a change, a proposition that seemed at the time and still seems even now to be preposterous. But his comments from Sunday subtly flipped the perspective from franchise to franchise quarterback.

For that reason, his words cannot be ignored.

Still, plenty of fans and too many in the media will plug their ears and rattle off “not listening” over and over again, even though the evidence is currently hiding in plain sight. Some will cherry pick specific aspects of salary-cap concerns in order to shout down the possibility of the Packers trading Rodgers if Rodgers decides, after taking time to think things through, that he’d like to keep playing for a team other than the one that devoted a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick in the 2020 draft to his eventual replacement.

As to the cap hit, the chorus of naysayers already are saying that it would cost the Packers more than $31 million to trade Rodgers. First, trading Rodgers costs the Packers nothing; the team would simply take a cap charge from unallocated bonus payments. In Rodgers’ case, past bonus payments already will count for $14.352 million in his 2021 cap number. Trading him before June 1 (more on that in a second) would accelerate $17.204 million into 2021, bumping the total cap charge to $31.556 million.

That’s a lot, to be sure. But Rodgers, with $22.35 million in 2021 compensation, already has a cap number of $37.572 million. Thus, trading him before June 1 (more on that in a second) would actually create a net cap savings of $6.016 million.

Jordan Love, the man drafted in April ostensibly to replace Rodgers, has a cap number of $2.814 million in 2021.

The fact most overlooked by the THIRTY-ONE MILLION CAP HIT! crowd is this: The Packers could keep the cap charge at $14.352 million for 2021 by trading Rodgers after June 1.

Here’s where the naysayers would say that the Packers and Rodgers’ new team would never wait that long to do the deal. But why not? If the Packers would choose to carry $37.572 million under Rodgers’ name from March 17 until June 2 in order to ultimately save $23.22 million in 2021 cap space, a June 2 trade becomes extremely viable. And with the ongoing pandemic likely making the on-field offseason program a nullity for a second straight year, why wouldn’t a team that wants Rodgers agree to do a tentative trade in, for example, March but then agree to delay the execution of the deal until June 2?

Nothing would prevent that. The practice of teams striking tentative trades before the start of the league year has become routine. Reaching a deal with the express understanding that it would become finalized on June 2 would be no different.

And if, in the interim, if Rodgers gets a playbook and participates in Zoom sessions and informally works out with his future teammates, who’s going to complain about that?

None of this is a prediction about what will happen. It’s an effort to understand what could happen, if Rodgers decides after taking some time to think it through that he’s going to walk before the Packers make him run.

He had a front row seat for the team’s effort in early 2008 to get Brett Favre to retire at a time on the calendar when, if pressed for a clear answer, Favre would opt to move on. Rodgers witnessed what happened when Favre decided as football season approached that he wanted to keep playing. Rodgers undoubtedly took mental if not actual notes on how he would choose to navigate his own final days in Green Bay, once he gets the sense that the team is plotting a future without him.

Last April, the Packers made it clear that they are plotting a future without him. Rodgers can either sit back and let their plan play out unchallenged, or he can force the issue.

Again, none of this would be currently relevant if Rodgers hadn’t said what he said on Sunday. Some will say he was speaking extemporaneously or emotionally. Others will say that he’s smart enough to have envisioned the possibility of losing, and adept enough with his brain and his vocal cords to craft a precise message that was delivered not accidentally but intentionally.

So no matter what happens in 2021, it would be stupid and/or naive to watch Rodgers’ press conference from Sunday and to conclude, “He’s just upset about the game. He’ll feel better in a few days.”

But this from former Packers exec Andrew Brandt:

@AndrewBrandt

A lot of reaction to Aaron saying future is uncertain. Packers did draft a QB first round, so not surprising he would say that.    But have always thought transfer date was 2022, not 2021.  And still think that.

– – –

Sunday night we saw tweets like this:

@barstoolsports

Tom Brady has now tied both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers with 1 NFC championship

@betsstats

Which got us to thinking – what QBs have won the most NFC championships in the 20 seasons beginning with 2001.  The answer:

Russell Wilson            2

Eli Manning                2

Kurt Warner               2

14 with                       1 (Brady, Garoppolo, Foles, Ryan, Newton, Kaepernick, Rodgers,

                                       Brees, Warner, Grossman, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Delhomme,

                                       Brad Johnson)

So 17 different NFC QBs in 20 years.

In the AFC, there have only been 6 (Brady 9, Manning 4, Big Ben 3, Mahomes 2, Gannon, Flacco).

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

Longtime Eagles player and coach has no interest in being part of Nick Sirianni’s staff.  Brandon Lee Gowton of BleedingGreenNation.com:

Philadelphia Eagles assistant head coach/running backs coach Duce Staley has asked the team to release him from his contract, according to a report from John Clark.

That Staley wants out should come as no surprise; he hasn’t really been able to advance his career in Philly. He’s basically been stuck as the Eagles’ running backs coach since first taking that job in 2013. The Eagles did add the “assistant head coach” label to his title after the team won Super Bowl LII. But that seemed to be about a bump in profile more than responsibility.

No one could blame Staley for feeling frustrated with the Eagles interviewing him twice for their head coach opening — once in 2016 and again this year — but ultimately passing on him. Especially for two guys in Doug Pederson and Nick Sirianni who, like Staley, didn’t have extensive play-calling experience at the time of their hires. Not to mention Staley having the public support of players during this year’s search.

NFL insider Mike Garafolo reports Staley is expected to meet with Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie soon. Perhaps Lurie will try to convince Staley to stay … or just refuse to let him out of his contract. But it seems like the Eagles would have more respect for Staley than to do that.

Garafolo also notes there are “a few teams” interested in adding Staley. The Chicago Bears are reportedly one of those teams and they have a running backs coach job to fill. It wouldn’t be ideal for Staley to leave for a lateral job but it’s clear by now he doesn’t have upward mobility in Philly.

It’s a shame Staley hasn’t been afforded more opportunities because the feeling here is he’ll make a good head coach one day. In the meantime, he’ll have to continue to bide his time.

Assuming the Eagles grant his request, the team will have to find a new running backs coach.

– – –

The Eagles have made Jonathan Gannon their DC.  He comes over from Indy where he was on the staff (defensive backs) with new head coach Nick Sirianni.

Here is a look at the state of the Eagles OC search.

The Eagles have found their defensive coordinator and they’re working on adding an offensive coordinator to Nick Sirianni’s staff on Sunday.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that Shane Steichen will be interviewing for the job. A previous report indicated that they are also interviewing Broncos running backs coach Curtis Modkins for the position.

Steichen became the Chargers’ interim offensive coordinator during the 2019 season and moved into the full-time job in 2020. He helped quarterback Justin Herbert to a superb rookie season and a big part of any coordinator’s role with the Eagles will be working to get more out of Carson Wentz or Jalen Hurts next season.

Steichen has been with the Chargers since 2011 and Sirianni was with the team from 2013-2017, so a move to Philly would be a reunion.

NFC SOUTH

TAMPA BAY

The later in life QB TOM BRADY has success, the more he enjoys it as his kids get older.  Peter King on the postgame hug:

“Ten Super Bowls,” I told him. “No other quarterback’s been to more than five.”

“I know. I know,” he said. “Man, there’s a part of me that just is . . .”

And then I thought we might have been cut off. Brady was silent for six seconds. I was about to say, “Tom?”

“It’s been an interesting life for me, you know?” he said. “I still get to do something I love to do and certainly don’t take anything for granted. Just grateful to everyone who supports me. And obviously my wife, my kids. Nobody can do anything in life without incredible support. Grateful to my parents, for being raised the right way. The commitment they showed. And my friends over the years. I think man, I’ve accomplished all of these things and I think for me the best part is sharing it with everybody else and just seeing videos of my kids jumping around and my friends jumping around. It makes it all so special for me and worth everything because I still get to live my dream. It’s an amazing feeling.”

There was a poignant moment after the game, before the NFC trophy was presented. Brady went to the railing behind the Tampa bench and asked a yellow-coated security guard, “Can I say hi to my son?” The COVID protocols limit where fans can be, so Brady’s 13-year-old son Jack, bundled up with a Bucs ski cap, had to be allowed past security. Father and son embraced. Jack’s mask could not contain his big grin.

“Doesn’t get any better for a dad than that,” Brady said. “He was gonna freeze his butt off here, and so I called him on Friday. I said, ‘Are you sure you wanna go?’ He’s like, ‘Dad, I wanna go.’ For him to be there and to see it just makes it so special for me. I hope it’s as special for him as it is for me.”

Guessing yes.

More King:

Coach Bruce Arians told me: “We’re playing so good on the road I almost wish the next one was on the road too.” Almost.

– – –

Here is a Brady nugget from Jeff Howe:

@jeffphowe

·

19h

Tom Brady has now beaten 27 QBs in the playoffs:

Gannon

Stewart

Warner

McNair

PManning 2x

Delhomme

Roethlisberger 2x

McNabb

Leftwich

Pennington

Rivers 3x

Garrard

Tebow

Flacco 2x

Schaub

Luck 2x

Wilson

Smith

Osweiler

Ryan

Mariota

Bortles

Mahomes

Goff

Heinicke

Brees

Rodgers

This from Seth Wickersham:

@SethWickersham

Tom Brady has started in 23% of the Super Bowls played since he was … born 43 years ago.

Brady has now thrown TD passes to 34 different players in the postseason.

To give you a comparison, AARON RODGERS has thrown TD passes to 42 different players in the regular season.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

It looks like the Chiefs will play SB55 without two key offensive linemen.  Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Chiefs have fought through offensive line issues all season, and will continue to do so in the Super Bowl after left tackle Eric Fisher tore his Achilles during Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz hasn’t played since suffering a back injury during Kansas City’s Week 6 victory over Buffalo. While there’s always been the possibility that he could return from injured reserve, it doesn’t sound like that’s going to happen in the next two weeks.

“I can’t tell you I’m that optimistic about it,” head coach Andy Reid said on Monday, via Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star.

Mike Remmers has been starting at right tackle in place of Schwartz, and Reid called him “dirty tough” on Monday.

But the Chiefs will need to figure out a way to negate Tampa Bay’s strong pass rush, as the Buccaneers sacked Aaron Rodgers five times on Sunday.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Peter King on the frenzy that led Brandon Staley from the Rams DC job to Chargers head coach:

So what’s the toll on the coaches who do get hired in a race against the clock? Let’s look at rookie Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, and his 27-hour journey from the turf at Lambeau Field to being anointed as the Chargers’ new coach. (All times Pacific, to eliminate confusion.)

Saturday, Jan. 16

4:31 p.m. PT, Green Bay: As the clock winds down on the 32-18 Rams’ loss, Staley, from his mic into the helmet of defensive signal-caller John Johnson, thanks the third-year safety for his great season being the on-field brain of the league’s number one defense. “You’ve meant so much to me and this defense,” Staley says.

4:32 p.m.: Staley seeks out Aaron Rodgers to tell him how much he respects his game. Rodgers, per Staley, was highly complimentary in return. “He said, ‘We’re gonna be doing this against each other for a lot of years. I have so much respect for your work. You guys have a special group.’ Coming from a guy like that, it meant a lot to me.” Rodgers may have spoken too soon about playing a Staley defense very often.

7:24 p.m.. Rams team plane takes off from Austin Strobel Airport in Green Bay, bound for LAX. “For me, I’m exhausted,” Staley said. “Time for decompression.”

10:41 p.m.. Rams land at LAX. On the bus from LAX to the Rams facility 50 minutes north, Staley has a mental checklist about what lies ahead: Sunday morning Zoom interview with Houston. Sunday noon limo to Chargers HQ in Orange County. If no offers are forthcoming from either team, he’ll board a dawn flight Monday for Florida to interview with Eagles brass. He does not want to do that. He is exhausted.

Sunday, Jan. 17

1:45 a.m.: In his home north of L.A., Staley gets into bed knowing he did all he could to beat the Packers, and has set himself up for the prospects to come. “Whatever happens, I’m at ease with it,” he said, recounting his thoughts.

8:09 a.m.: He wakes up, takes a quick shower, gets some coffee.

8:30 a.m.: Zoom interview with Texans GM Nick Caserio.

Noon: Picked up for his 85-minute ride to the Chargers’ complex in Costa Mesa, Calif.

1:45 p.m.: After some hellos, Staley walks up the stairs into the Chargers’ facility. WELCOME TO THE FAMILY is the sign, with a lightning bolt, on the second floor of the building. Members of the Spanos family, the owners and lead interviewers on this afternoon, greet him. In-person interview starts. Big point that Staley, in his talks with the Chargers, impresses on the Spanoses and GM Tom Telesco, obviously curious how this defensive coach was going to handle the coaching and education and care of 22-year-old wunderkind QB Justin Herbert. Staley has an answer for that. He is a former college quarterback (University of Dayton), points out how defensive coaches Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson, Tony Dungy, Pete Carroll, Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick all were able to coach/coexist/flourish with star quarterbacks. “I want to offer [Herbert] a dual education in all aspects of football,” Staley says.

4:15 p.m.: Chargers suggest a break, for bathroom reasons and otherwise. “Brandon was fried when he got to us,” someone in the meeting observed. Give the guy a break. Staley thinks he’s in the hunt. “I got the feeling I had some of the answers they were looking for,” he says later.

6:30 p.m.: Somewhere around this time, Staley accepts the job. GM Tom Telesco walks him down the hall and shows him his new office.

6:45 p.m.: Staley calls his wife, Amy. “We did it,” he says. A few days later, asked about those words, he says: “That’s all I need to say. It’s a dream for her too, because she’s been living it with me.” The new coach of the Los Angeles Chargers is happy he can go to sleep in his own bed Sunday night after 27 lunatic hours, and not try to jam in three hours of fitful sleep in first class on the dawn flight to Florida.

7:35 p.m.: Chargers social media team gets in the act. In the old days, the press release would go out first, then the proper statements from the owner and the coach, then the head shots to use in the morning paper. This is not 1993. Five minutes before the Chargers confirm their new coach is Brandon Staley, a video goes out on Twitter, 19 seconds in all, themed, GOT OUR GUY.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

Peter King:

I think that was an interesting news drop in the third quarter of the first game Sunday: Veteran Steelers beat man Gerry Dulac reported veteran center and team leader Maurkice Pouncey has told teammates he is likely retiring after 11 seasons in the center of the Pittsburgh offensive line. Feels more and more like it’s time for a retooling in Pittsburgh, with this question lingering: Whither Ben Roethlisberger?

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

The Texans have made some moves to try to warm the cold heart of QB DESHAUN WATSON towards the team, but according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, he is thinking of greener (and more aqua) pastures.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson, unhappy with his situation with the Houston Texans, apparently has a ranking for which new team he’d like to play:

And, yes, he really wants to move to the AFC East.

But he prefers to play for the New York Jets.

And, second, he’d like to play for the Miami Dolphins.

In that order.

Watson this week told people the Jets are his top preference among the teams he’d like to be traded to because they hired Robert Saleh to be their coach and Watson values Saleh so much he wanted the Texans to interview him for their vacant head coach job.

Watson confirmed reports, circulated for several weeks in national media, he’d also welcome playing for the Dolphins but said that is his second choice at this time.

Watson was in New York in recent days but it’s not clear if his time there had anything to do with football at all. Obviously, the Jets are headquartered in New Jersey and Dolphins owner Stephen Ross lives in New York but it would be tampering for them to be speaking or meeting with Watson without permission.

Saleh, who was the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers the past four seasons, is a favorite of many players around the league.

Richard Sherman, who played under Saleh with the 49ers, actually has advice for Watson on what he should do with his current situation in Houston: “I’d get out of there as quickly as possible, I’d head to New York,” Sherman said last week on the Cris Collinsworth podcast.

Both the Jets and the Dolphins currently have incumbent quarterbacks. But neither Sam Darnold in New York nor Tua Tagovailoa in Miami are proven stars nor have performed anywhere close to what Watson has for the Texans.

Tagovailoa nonetheless was named the team’s 2021 starter by general manager Chris Grier two weeks ago. But Darnold has gotten no such certainty in New York from Saleh.

Meanwhile, the Texans appear to be honing in on a pair of Black coaches for the lone remaining vacancy.  One of them is now available to be hired immediately.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will square off in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

They may also be squaring off for the head coaching job in Houston.

Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that the Texans are expected to request second interviews with both men. They could both speak to the Texans after Sunday’s game, but only the coach from the losing team could be hired before the Super Bowl is played.

Schefter adds that both coaches have begun talking to prospective members of their staffs.

Frazier has previous head coaching experience with the Vikings while Bieniemy has interviewed for several openings in recent years. His initial absence from the list of Texans interviews was cited as an issue for quarterback Deshaun Watson, but his late entry into the mix doesn’t appear to have hamstrung his chances of getting the job.

– – –

Peter King on the emergence of Josh McCown as a candidate:

3. Josh McCown. Seems crazy, the Texans considering appointing McCown head coach. He’s never coached at any level beyond high school. But I believe the Texans are intrigued by the possibility. I also believe it’s not certain, and it’s not even close. McCown, who turns 42 on July 4, has suited up for 10 teams, and is the equivalent of the backup catcher or utility infielder (Joe Girardi, Alex Cora) who could make a great manager. I know McCown. I have not spoken to him about this, but he is one of the smartest, most self-aware players I’ve covered in the NFL. I am 100-percent sure he is aware that it’s crazy for him to be named an NFL head coach; my bet is he probably realizes the Texans would be better off hiring from a healthy pool of minority coaches that so far has been mostly untapped (except for Robert Saleh with the Jets) this hiring season.

The last thing I’m sure of, knowing McCown: There’s no way he’d consider taking the Texans’ coaching job without Deshaun Watson—who he loves—as his quarterback. I’ve always thought McCown most wanted to be a proud dad either watching or helping coach his sons in high school. The two boys will be a senior and junior, respectively, next fall in Rusk, Texas, 170 miles north of Houston. Both play for Rusk High School. So if McCown takes a job in football, my bet is part of the deal would be his need to be home every autumn Friday night to see his boys play. Many interesting dynamics at play if the Texans get serious about this gambit.

INDIANAPOLIS

Peter King on the Colts QB spot:

1. THE COLTS. For a moment, think of the Indianapolis starting quarterbacks over the last 17 months: Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers. Now there will be a fourth, and all logic points to Matthew Stafford. Think of it. The Lions will need a trade partner with a need plus cap room to handle Stafford’s cap hits of $20 million and $23 million over the next two years. Indianapolis has more cap room ($64.9 million, per Over The Cap) than any team in football, and this is the kind of just-add-QB playoff-ready team that Stafford seeks. The Colts are not married to any single plan—draft, vet on the street, vet in trade—to stock the position in 2021. And there’s a top mentor in place in Frank Reich. A sensible trade would be Indy’s first-round pick, 21st overall, to Detroit for Stafford.

This is what I think: Reich and Ballard will investigate Stafford thoroughly but will not be held hostage for him. Ballard has a good track record in scouting college players and who knows—he might already love one of the four or five first-round prospects. In the last four seasons, Reich has coached Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Luck, Brissett and Rivers—and been in three playoffs and one Super Bowl. Reich will trust Ballard. He won’t tell him, I have to have Stafford. Go get Stafford at all costs. If I’m Ballard, I’m comfortable trading the 21st pick in the draft for a quarterback likely to play four to six years at a productive level.

JACKSONVILLE

Snark from Pete Prisco:

@PriscoCBS

Hey, Jaguars. Those top-10 picks paid off. Byron Leftwich, Blaine Gabbert and Leonard Fournette are going to the Super Bowl.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins have plucked former NFL QB Charlie Frye from the MAC to try to develop QB TUA TAGOVIALOA.  Cameron Wolfe of ESPN.com:

The Miami Dolphins continued their offseason pursuit to build around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as they hired Central Michigan offensive coordinator Charlie Frye as their new QB coach Saturday.

Frye was a key assistant working with Tagovailoa during the Elite 11 high school QB camp that helped the young QB burst onto the national scene. In a nod to how valuable the experience was to him, Tagovailoa later hired Elite 11 head coach Trent Dilfer as his personal coach during his NFL pre-draft process.

Frye will replace quarterbacks coach Robby Brown, who is out despite having time left on his contract. Brown becomes the third known offensive assistant to leave, joining Chan Gailey, who resigned as offensive coordinator earlier this month, and offensive line coach Steve Marshall, who also is out despite having time left on his contract.

Brown and Marshall had both been hired by the Dolphins after Gailey had vouched for them.

Tight end coach George Godsey took over quarterback coach responsibilities in the second half of the season — an early sign that the Dolphins were ready to make a change at the position.

Miami continues to build around Tagovailoa, who is coming off an uneven rookie season but has received strong public support from coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier in recent weeks amid speculation and criticism.

The Frye move is another example of the team trying to put Tagovailoa in a comfortable situation entering Year 2.

Frye, 39, spent five years as a NFL quarterback, mostly notably with the Cleveland Browns. He’s spent the past two seasons as Central Michigan’s offensive coordinator and QB coach.

The Dolphins, who are coaching the Senior Bowl this week, have yet to officially name an offensive coordinator and may not make a hire until after they return from Mobile, Alabama.

THIS AND THAT

JILL HOBBS

Jill Hobbs was one of the first three or so employees hired by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1975.  She worked in the team’s offices at the Tampa Airport Marriott in the terminal building, long before the construction of the original One Buccaneer Place.

When she passed away last week, 46 years later, she was still working for the Buccaneers.  Rest assured, it is easily the longest run of employment in team history.

She had a lot of tasks in her time with the Buccaneers, all handled well and cheerfully.

Especially in the early years, when the team prided itself on its spartan staff, she would be the general manager’s secretary during the week and run the scoreboard on Sunday during the games.  And those were the days when people didn’t have cellphones or computers, when documents were typed on a typewriter and sent of a FAX machine (4 or 6 minutes).

In her later years, for the Glazers, she handled the team’s alumni outreach.

We would think that literally everyone who has ever worked for the Buccaneers (with the possible exception of some of the current players) would have known her.  And all would regard her as a friend who brightened their lives.

Other teams have worker bees like Jill, the one we knew, who keep things moving as executives and players come and go.  We salute them all.

HALL OF FAME CLASS OF 2021

The votes are counted but the voters don’t know the result.  But Peter King has some inklings:

Voting for the Class of 2021 happened last Tuesday instead of the day before the Super Bowl. Don’t ask me when we’ll find out who gets in, because we don’t know. Peyton Manning will get in, of course, and after that, my guess is Charles Woodson and Calvin Johnson have the best shot. Five modern-era candidates, max, can be elected in a year, so beyond that, your guess is probably as qualified as mine.

I’ll be interested to see the fate of safety John Lynch this year. Just thought of this late in the process, and I find it interesting in the Pro Football Focus era of player evaluation: Lynch was around for one full season of PFF’s analysis of every player on ever play, 2006. When comparing Lynch’s grade to the top four vote-getters at safety this year in the All-Pro voting, here’s what I found: Minkah Fitzpatrick 79.5, Budda Baker 75.3, Lynch (2006) 73.4, Jamal Adams 64.2, Tyrann Mathieu 64.1. I think Lynch has been close, so we’ll see if the tight race after Manning benefits or hurts him this year. I like his case.

And this:

Length of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection meeting—on Zoom this year, last Tuesday—for the 48 selectors picking the class of 2021:

8 hours, 43 minutes

Length of discussion for the 18 candidates for selection:

^Calvin Johnson: 39 minutes, 28 seconds

John Lynch: 36:55

Tony Boselli: 31:50

=Bill Nunn: 31:29

#Drew Pearson: 28:28

+Tom Flores: 27:45

Reggie Wayne: 25:13

Sam Mills: 20:57

Clay Matthews Jr.: 20:11

LeRoy Butler: 17:44

Charles Woodson: 16:37

Zach Thomas: 15:52

Alan Faneca: 13:08

Richard Seymour: 12:29

Torry Holt: 11:10

Ronde Barber: 8:08

Jared Allen: 7:44

Peyton Manning: 0:13

^ Johnson’s discussion included about 14 minutes of a couple of tangential topics. It is more accurate to say his discussion lasted about 25 minutes.

= Contributors Committee nominee

# Seniors Committee nominee

+ Coaches committee nominee

OLSEN and RIVERS

Peter King on two top picks in the 2021 announcer draft:

I think Greg Olsen should be good on TV. He’s earnest, quick and easy to listen. He retired Sunday and should slide pretty effortlessly into the FOX booth. Interesting to see how accomplished a player he was:

• Only four tight ends (Gonzalez, Witten, Gates, Sharpe) caught more passes than Olsen’s 742.

• He’s 45th on the all-time receptions list.

• Kyle Rudolph and Travis Kelce each are 12 touchdowns behind Olsen’s 60 career TDs.

5. I think it’s been interesting to hear the TV rumors about Philip Rivers in the wake of his Wednesday retirement. Not saying he won’t go to an NFL booth, and I think he’d be informative and infectious. But have you ever heard Rivers say one thing about doing games on TV when he retires? Only thing I’ve heard is how much he wants to coach high school football. And he already has that gig, having been appointed varsity coach at St. Michael Catholic High School in Fairhope, Ala. I asked Frank Reich about the TV thing Saturday. “Philip talked a lot in our conversations about being a high school football coach,” Reich said. “A lot. He’s going to be great at it—coaching those kids in football but also in life. He will coach the whole person. He will change lives. He was made for it. But I never have had one conversation with him about TV.” It’s hard to envision Rivers doing the job the way it needs to be done—being gone 2.5 days a week every week during football season, and still coaching a high school team and being there for his nine kids. Just a thought.

Olsen has a gig with FOX.  Drew Brees has a gig with NBC.

Rivers might not be a game analyst.  Perhaps the less time-consuming spot on a Sunday show?