| The late Monday Briefing focuses on coaching moves, we’ll look more at the playoff matchups in the next addition. THE CAROUSELBy Monday, two coaching jobs were open, three were closed and two remained a mystery. NEW ENGLAND – Jarod Mayo went 4-13, just as Bill Belichick had in 2023 and was dismissed. The consensus rumor has Mike Vrabel the front-runner to replace him. JACKSONVILLE – Doug Pederson was fired, but GM Trent Baalke was retained. INDIANAPOLIS – Coach Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard will return. MIAMI – Coach Mike McDaniel and GM Curtis Greer will return. GIANTS – Coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen will return. DALLAS – Coach Mike McCarthy was to meet with owner Jerry Jones. LAS VEGAS – Coach Antonio Pierce was allowed to hold a season-ending press conference and talk about his plans for 2025. Meanwhile, the Jets and Bears revealed a dizzying list of individuals they are interviewing (in New York, it is for both GM and Coach). |
| NFC NORTH |
| CHICAGOBen Devine has tried to keep track of the Chicago head coaching interview requests: @Chicago_NFLHere is a list of candidates the Chicago Bears have reportedly requested interviews with: Anthony Weaver Mike Kafka Drew PetzingThomas Brown Arthur Smith Brian Flores Mike McCarthy Todd MonkenBen JohnsonAaron Glenn Mike Vrabel Divine also thinks Vance Joseph, DC of the Broncos, will get one and that Joe Brady, OC of the Billls, Liam Coen, OC of the Bucs and ex-Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll might also be interviewed.the Joe Br@DaBears100· |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASGarrett Podell of CBSSports.com on the decision to start QB TREY LANCE in the finale: Despite starting longtime backup Cooper Rush in every game since quarterback Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury (hamstring tear in Week 9 at the Falcons), the Dallas Cowboys made a change. Trey Lance, the 2021 third overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers, was the Cowboys’ starting quarterback for the team’s Week 18 season finale against the Washington Commanders on Sunday. In the 23-19 defeat, Lance completed 20 of his 34 passes for 244 yards without a touchdown or an interception. He also had six rushes for 26 yards. Lance playing means Rush did not hit his full play-time incentive for the 2024 season. CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported on Thursday that Rush will earn $500,000 in incentives if he plays 55% of the team’s snaps in 2024. Entering Week 18, he’s played 52.5% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps. If he played at least 65 snaps, that would have likely been good enough to get him his $500,000. But with Lance starting and playing the entire game, that didn’t happen. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy was all in on starting Rush when the team was still in contention to make the playoffs. The Cowboys went 4-4 in Rush’s eight starts since Week 10, and he completed 61.3% of his passes while averaging 209.6 passing yards per game. Rush’s 11-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio since Week 10 is tied for 17th in the NFL with MVP candidate Josh Allen, but his passer rating in this stretch is just 86.6, 25th among the league’s 32 qualified quarterbacks in this span. |
| NEW YORK GIANTSGiants owner John Mara is keeping his coach and GM, but Armando Salguero of Outkick.com is among those struck by his tone. New York Giants principal owner John Mara has made what seems like an unpopular decision to keep coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen. And we can say it’s unpopular because fans aren’t happy, the New York media isn’t happy, and Mara himself doesn’t sound happy, either. “I’m going to have to be in a better mood this time next year than I am right now,” Mara told reporters on Monday. Have The Giants Gotten Better?The Giants have gone from 9-7-1 in 2022 in the first year of Daboll-Schoen to 6-11 in 2023, and then 3-14 this year. And Mara doesn’t seem too sure things are getting better. “How can I say that it’s better if we win three games?” he asked rhetorically. “We need to win more games for us to be able to prove that point. But there’s just a better feeling in the building now that we’ve got the right pieces in place. We have a lot of holes to fill and that’s what this offseason is going to be about.” This offseason and what follows in the 2025 regular season is going to be key for Daboll and Schoen because Mara wants tangible improvement ASAP. “It better not take too long because I’ve just about run out of patience,” Mara said. Year Four Will Be A Ride For Daboll, SchoenMara at times on Monday sounded like a groom on his wedding day – after he’d gotten hitched to a gal whose father was carrying a shotgun during the ceremony. He said, “our record is pretty lousy right now.” He said, “I’m aware of how many games we’ve won and, obviously, the results are not even close to what we want them to be. They’re going to have to get better if we’re going to move on to Year Four.” The fact is Daboll and Schoen are starting Year Four. It’s Year Five, which seems tenuous. And that’s because Mara doesn’t seem confident his team is better today than it was three years ago. “I’m not sure I am all that confident that it’s that much better,” he said. But… Mara Endorsement Weak But BindingMara is a thoughtful man, and he understands changing direction now won’t necessarily point the Giants in a better direction. It actually might set them back. So he’s sticking with Daboll and Schoen. (Which I personally believe is the right call.) “I think, though, with the draft class that we just had… Again, it’s very unusual that you have six draftees, all of whom you think are going to help us going forward,” he said. “I thought that was a huge step. The free agents that we picked up between (guard Jon) Runyan (Jr.) and bringing Brian Burns in here, I think those are going to help us going forward. I think once you solve the quarterback issue, I think a lot of these other things will improve as well. “Based on my observation of how they work together, of how the players respond to them and how Joe is going about building the roster going forward, it’s my instinct and my strong belief that we are going to go in the right direction. “It’s hard for me to say we’re going in the right direction right now because we’ve been going backwards. Nobody feels that any more than I do. I hate having to go through this process. I hate having to answer these questions. But at the end of the day, you’ve got to take a calm, rational look at things. We did that and this is the decision that we came up with.” |
| PHILADELPHIA |
| WASHINGTONA quote and a note about the Commanders at ESPN.com: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin“We got a flair for the dramatics that’s for sure.” Another week, another win for the Commanders decided in the final moments. With Jayden Daniels held out of the game because of leg soreness, it was backup quarterback Marcus Mariota who played the key role for Washington this time. Mariota finished 15-of-18 passing with a pair of touchdown throws, the most important coming with only three seconds left to put the Commanders ahead by four. McLaurin, who caught the winning touchdown, spoke to the commonality of Washington’s late-game successes this season. Per Elias Sports Bureau, the 2024 Commanders are the first team since the 1970 merger to have four winning passing touchdowns in the final 30 seconds of regulation/OT in a single season.– – -The Commanders now have a clearer path to a new home on the sight of their old stomping grounds. Shanna McCairston of CBSSports.com: President Joe Biden signed the the RFK Memorial Stadium Campus Revitalization Act on Monday, per the Associated Press, paving the way for the possibility of the Washington Commanders moving back to Washington D.C. This comes after the The U.S. Senate passed the resolution by unanimous consent last month, giving the city the opportunity to negotiate with developers. The land will transfer from federal control to city control within 180 days, giving the city 170 acres to work with. RFK Stadium can now be torn down and the city can begin new projects with the 99-year lease, including a potential new stadium. Now, the city and the Commanders need to work out a deal and get the D.C. Council on board. Washington D.C is spending a significant amount — around $515 million over the next three years — on Capital Arena, home of the Washington Wizards and Washington Capitals. Whether they will want to spend more public money on a stadium as well will be one hurdle. Another hurdle could be from Maryland, where the Commanders currently reside. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has been vocal about wanting a new stadium built next to the current one in Landover. The team has a contract to play at Northwest Stadium until 2027, but the deal could be extended until they have a new stadium completed, as the team owns the stadium and land where they currently play. Commanders controlling owner Josh Harris previously said 2030 is a reasonable target for a new stadium. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAThe Falcons could be moving on from DC Jimmy Lake. When asked specifically about Lake on Monday, Coach Raheem Morris said, “We have got to evaluate all our coaches” which sounds like less than an endorsement. |
| CAROLINAThe Panthers set a record in defeat, although we might cite the 17-game schedule. Anthony Rizzutti at YahooSports.com: Your 2024 Carolina Panthers have made NFL history. In the fourth quarter of Sunday’s regular-season finale, Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson found the end zone on a 4-yard rush to cut the Carolina’s lead to 38-37. The ensuing extra point from kicker Riley Patterson would knot the game up and stand as the 534th point given up by the Panthers this year—a new single-season record. The previous record was held by the 1981 Baltimore Colts, who relinquished 533 points over 16 games. Those Colts, while finishing at 2-14, allowed 33.3 points per contest. |
| NEW ORLEANSThe Saints head coach interview list is said to include: David Shaw, former Stanford head coachAaron Glenn, DC DetroitJoe Brady, OC BuffaloAnthony Weaver, DC MiamiKellen Moore, OC PhiladelphiaMike Kafka, OC New York Giants |
| TAMPA BAYWhile all eyes were on the nine-yard pass on the final play that gave WR MIKE EVANS his 11th 1,000-yard receiving season and a $3 million bonus, QB BAKER MAYFIELD also notched a milestone with the pass. Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com: That set the scene for an emotional moment that captured not just the Bucs’ sideline but the entire Raymond James Stadium crowd. Mayfield completed a nine-yard pass to Mike Evans that put the receiver’s yardage total for the season at 1,004 and allowed him to tie all-time great Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons (11) in league history. Incredibly, that simple nine-yard completion did more than just put Evans equal with a Hall of Famer and burnish his own resume for a bronze bust. It was also the exact number of yards needed to get Mayfield into a very exclusive club. With 221 passing yards and two touchdown tosses, Mayfield finished the season with 4,500 yards and 41 scoring passes, making him just the 10th quarterback in NFL history to record at least 4,500 yards and 40 touchdown passes in a single season. The list includes two Hall of Famers and a handful of others sure to be enshrined in Canton when eligible. The feat has been accomplished 17 times overall. Quarterbacks with 4,500+ Passing Yards, 40+ Touchdowns in a Season, NFL History (listed chronologically) Dan Marino, Dolphins, 1984 and 1986Peyton Manning, Colts, 2004; Broncos, 2013Tom Brady, Patriots, 2007; Buccaneers, 2020 and 2021Matthew Stafford, Lions, 2011; Rams, 2021Aaron Rodgers, Packers, 2011Drew Brees, Saints, 2011 and 2012Andrew Luck, Colts, 2014Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, 2018, 2022Joe Burrow, Bengals, 2024Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers, 2024 Mayfield also joined Brees (2011), Burrow (2024) and Rodgers (2020) as the only players ever to record 4,000+ passing yards, 40+ touchdown passes and a completion rate of at least 70% in a season. His final completion percentage of 71.4% was a career high and it ranked third in the NFL in 2024. |
| NFC WEST |
| SAN FRANCISCOThe 49ers have been boom or bust under Coach Kyle Shanahan in his eight seasons as head coach. In four of them they won 10 or more games, plus at least one playoff game, to reach the NFC Championship Game (and twice beyond that to the Super Bowl). In the other four, they won six games or fewer, including this season. Has any other team gone the last eight years without at least one season with 7, 8 or 9 wins? Well, there are two. One is the Chiefs, who have won at least 10 games in each of the last eight seasons. The other is – the Houston Texans who won their 10th game of the 2024 season on Sunday. Like the 49ers, Houston has won 10 or more games in two of the last eight seasons. And carrying the commitment to extremes ever further than the 49ers, the Texans did not win more than four games in any of the other four seasons. So, no seasons with 5,6,7,8 or 9 wins for the Texans in the last eight. |
| SEATTLEThe Seahawks have won at least seven games in each of the last 15 seasons. Can any other team make that claim? It turns out it is the second-longest active streak The Saints actually had a streak of 18 straight seasons with 7+ wins end this year when they went 5-12. The Steelers have now won 7 or more games in 21 straight seasons, They won six in 2003. The Chiefs have a 12-year streak, but won only 2 games in 2012.- – -The Seahawks parted ways with OC Ryan Grubb after one season. Grubb did good work with Kalen DeBoer at a number of stops including the U. of Washington, but his middle of the road offense at the NFL level was not good enough to get a second season. Corbin Smith of SI.com says that Grubb proved to be too pass-centric in his offensive scheme for defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald. Following Sunday’s 30-25 win over the Rams, Smith spoke highly of Grubb’s first season at the controls for the Seahawks, expressing excitement about getting to work with him again in 2025. Clearly, the veteran quarterback would have been in favor of him returning after posting career-bests in passing yards and completion percentage. But with Schneider’s blessing, Macdonald didn’t waste time making a change that he felt needed to be made to help improve his football team, viewing the offense’s season-long inconsistencies and lack of balance as a major reason why Seattle didn’t make it into the postseason. By early Monday morning, less than 24 hours after winning in Los Angeles, he confirmed on Seattle Sports 710 that Grubb had been fired and the team would begin searching for a new offensive coordinator. “It’s really as simple as just I felt like the direction our offense was going was different than the vision that I had for our team, and felt like it was just a necessary decision at this point,” Macdonald said of the decision to part ways with Grubb, later adding, “Ryan’s a heck of a football coach.” 11 months after having drinks with Grubb just a mile away from the team facility, it’s worth wondering why Macdonald and Schneider were sold on him as a candidate if his pass-centric scheme failed to match with what Macdonald desired in the first place. It was predictable that the coordinator would wind up being a square peg trying to fit into a round hole. But Schneider and even Carroll had an eye on Grubb while he engineered Washington’s dangerous offense the past two years, intrigued by his potential to scheme against modern NFL defenses. With Macdonald hired late in the coaching cycle, he stood out as the best option and there was a clear mutual interest for all parties, as they sold each other on their ability to marry their concepts and ideologies. In the end, while it wasn’t anything personal and both Macdonald and Grubb don’t hold anything against the other coach, the partnership simply didn’t work, leaving the Seahawks in an all-too familiar position searching for an offensive coordinator for the third time in five years and no clear favorites to replace Grubb in the sky box. The change also creates further questions about where Smith fits into future plans along with other offensive standouts such as Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Fant. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYThe team that had lost only one game all season, Kansas City, was the biggest loser in Week 18. The Chiefs 38-point margin of defeat at Denver was 13 points worse than the next biggest beatdown (the Browns 10-35 at the hands of the Ravens). The 15-2 Chiefs finish the year with a point differential of only +59 which ranks 11th in the playoff field. The Lions also went 15-2 with a +222 point differential. A total of 38 teams in NFL history have won 14 or more games. A point differential of +100 have been achieved by 37 of them, ranging up to +315. The 2024 Chiefs, at +59, are far behind. |
| LAS VEGASPaul Guitierrez of ESPN.com on Antonio Pierce’s Monday appearance: Antonio Pierce is operating as if he will remain the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders after a 4-13 season, though he had yet to meet with team owner Mark Davis and general manager Tom Telesco when he addressed reporters in his end-of-season news conference Monday. “I haven’t been told anything different,” said Pierce, who was wearing a throwback Raiders Starter jacket at the podium. Asked if he’d like his status “cleared up,” Pierce shrugged. “It’s only coming from the outside,” he said of swirling speculation. “It’s not inside the building. To me there’s nothing to clean up until I hear from inside the building.” As such, Pierce said he did not anticipate making any changes to his staff in the wake of the team’s fewest wins since 2018. It was also the first time the Raiders were winless against AFC West opponents since 2006. The Raiders endured a 10-game losing streak, their longest in-season skid since they began the 2014 season 0-10 and had the NFL’s worst rushing attack. But Las Vegas did have the league’s No. 10 total defense entering the season finale, a 34-20 loss to the playoff-bound Los Angeles Chargers. Raiders players credited Pierce for keeping them focused during a trying season. “Shout out to AP because he kept the guys motivated, even when you’re losing so many in a row,” said receiver Jakobi Meyers, who had his first career 1,000-yard season. “That’s hard as a professional. That’s hard as a competitor, in general. AP just did a great job in keeping us going and understanding what the goal is at the end of the day.” Rookie Brock Bowers, whose 112 catches were the third most by a tight end in NFL history, echoed Meyers’ words. “I really liked AP as a coach,” said Bowers, who was selected for the Pro Bowl. “I know decisions are made and it’s up to certain people and not us, so I don’t have any control over that. But I really liked playing for him and I thought he was a great coach.” |
| AFC SOUTH |
| JACKSONVILLEJosh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com with the highlights of owner Shad Khan’s press conference announcing his dismissal of Doug Pederson as head coach. Jaguars owner Shad Khan held a press conference after firing head coach Doug Pederson on Monday and his decision to hold onto General Manager Trent Baalke was the subject of several questions. Khan called the 2024 Jaguars the best team of his ownership tenure before the season and he cited Baalke’s “body of work” putting together the roster as part of his explanation. He rejected the notion that there was a need for a “complete overhaul” of the franchise by citing multiple strong areas of the organization while making it clear that he thought a coaching change was the most meaningful way to improve the franchise. “Don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater,” Khan said. “We have a lot of things that are working, that can always be improved and will improve. And there are other things that are not working that need to be fixed. The coaching, that is an area that we need to fix now. But certainly over the last few years, we’ve built a football administration and things are working well there.” Khan said that he doesn’t think that retaining Baalke will limit the pool of candidates for the coaching job and the names of those candidates should start to appear in the near future. Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com, a JAX resident, took to Twitter/X to expound: @PriscoCBSTrent Baalke staying in Jacksonville is absurd. He is the problem. Who wants to work with him? Trent Baalke is a pro at one thing: Propping himself up and letting all those around him take the fall. I can tell you this with 100-percent certainty: The Jaguars fan base wanted Baalke out far more than they wanted Pederson out — and they didn’t want him back either. Baalke has one year left on his deal. Will he be extended? That’s the key question. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW ENGLANDRobert Kraft on pulling the rug out from under Coach Jerod Mayo after one year. Jaclyn Hendricks of the New York Post: Robert Kraft is putting Jerod Mayo’s failed Patriots tenure on himself. In the hours following Jerod Mayo’s firing after just one year on the job, Kraft addressed the swift coaching change on Monday, calling the move “one of the more difficult things I’ve had to do in my life.” “This whole situation is on me,” Kraft, 83, said in his opening remarks to the media. “I feel terrible for Jerod because I put him in an untenable situation. I know that he has all the tools as a head coach to be successful in this league, he just needed more time before taking the job. In the end, I’m a fan of this team first, and now, I have to go out and find a coach who can get us back to the playoffs and hopefully championships.” The former Patriots linebacker, 38, posted a 4-13 record as head coach. Kraft added Monday he “went back and forth” on the situation over the past month. “I guess the main thing for me is I felt we regressed,” said Kraft, whose Patriots rode a six-game losing skid entering Sunday. “… I don’t like losing the way we lost,” he later added. “Things were not developing the way we would have liked and it was time to move on.” Upon telling Mayo the team wanted to go in a different direction, Kraft said he “was a gentleman and accepted it that way.” “It was one of the more difficult things I’ve had to do in my life cause I had such affection for him, and I believe in him, and I really do believe he will go on as he gets more experience to be successful,” Kraft shared. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com offers his thoughts on who might be next: How desirable is the Patriots’ head coach opening, and who are the front-runners?The biggest issue for prospective candidates will be the lack of top-end roster talent with which to work. But the Patriots are set up to change that, with $130-plus million in cap space, a franchise quarterback to attract pass-catching free agents and plenty of draft capital. And New England can offer the mystique and tradition associated with six Super Bowls during the Belichick-Tom Brady era. Though I expect New England to conduct a wide-ranging search, you’ve got to think former Tennessee Titans coach and Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel will at least be involved. It makes too much sense, given his ties there. And that has been the expectation among some inside the league in recent days, that, should the job open, he will be interested. But Vrabel will have other options. Another contender might be Vikings defensive coordinator and former Patriots assistant Brian Flores, who has reset his career in Minnesota with two successful years. This is also a chance for New England to talk with offense-minded candidates to maximize Maye’s development. Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen, considered one of the rising candidates, has several New England ties — he grew up in Rhode Island, played at UMass and coached at Brown, UMass and Maine. — Jeremy Fowler |
| NEW YORK JETSAlbert Bainbridge IV of NorthJersey.com has compiled this list of Jets head coach and GM interviews, completed and planned: Johnson and the Jets’ brass aren’t waiting around, as they’ve either interviewed, requested or plan to interview nearly 20 candidates already as they’re the only team in the NFL without a current head coach, offensive coordinator, offensive play caller, defensive coordinator and general manager under contract. Furthermore, it’s also been reported that the Jets are not expected to interview Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, with the offensive guru reportedly interviewing with only the Bears and Patriots for now. Here’s an updated list of who the Jets have already interviewed and plan to interview for their vacant head coach and general manager positions: Head coaches Mike VrabelAlong side Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the premier head coaching candidate is Vrabel, who is back in the coaching carousel after spending last season as a coaching and personnel consultant with the Browns once he was surprisingly fired by the Titans despite leading the organization to the playoffs three times and an AFC Championship game appearance during the 2019 season. He is the hot commodity and could potentially return to New England, where he played for eight seasons after the Patriots fired Jerod Mayo on Sunday afternoon. There are already reports out there that Vrabel’s interview with the Jets last Friday was to put pressure on Patriots owner Robert Kraft to make a move if they wanted him to be their next head coach. Time will tell, but the Jets might be looking in a different direction if that’s the case, and Vrabel returns to Foxboro as the organization’s new HC. Rex RyanDec 21, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan coaches against the New England Patriots during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Jets 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsOne of the upcoming, highly anticipated scheduled interviews is none other than Ryan, who led the franchise to their most recent postseason berth and win with back-to-back AFC title game appearances in 2009 and 2010. Despite being out of the league for eight years and a pundit on ESPNs ‘Get Up’ morning show and others, the 62-year-old Oklahoma native said he loved his chances of being back on the sidelines as head coach for the Jets. “100 percent, absolutely I do,” Ryan said Monday morning when asked if he’s confident about returning as HC. “The reason I think I’m going to get it is because I’m the best guy. It ain’t close. The thing you have to do is connect with a football team, your fan base and the way they play. That’s the most important thing. Not just the X’s and O’s and all that.” He went on to further state in the interview that he’s a better candidate for this job than the aforementioned Johnson. Ryan, who’s been outspoken about his displeasure of QB Aaron Rodgers, will interview with the Jets’ brass on Tuesday. Ron RiveraThe first coach interviewed in the Jets’ head coaching process was Rivera, who was brought in one day before Vrabel last Thurday. Riverboat Ron has 13 years of head coaching experience in the NFL, compiling a 102-103-2 record during his time with the Panthers and Commanders, most notably leading Carolina to a Super Bowl 50 appearance in 2015. Arthur SmithAnother former head coach interviewing for the job is Smith. Currently the offensive coordinator for the Steelers, he previously was the HC for the Falcons, where he finished 7-10 in three consecutive seasons before being let go and joining Pittsburgh’s staff as the OC last offseason. Woody Johnson is familiar with Smith, as he interviewed twice for the Jets last head coach opening in 2021 before he was hired by the Falcons and the Jets tabbed Robert Saleh as their HC. Brian FloresAfter posting a 24-25 record in three years in Miami as the Dolphins head coach, Flores has shined the past two seasons as Vikings defensive coordinator. Minnesota’s been one of the best defensive units since the Brooklyn, New York native took over the role prior to the 2023 season. Aaron GlennJan 5, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn celebrates as he walks off the field following the Lions win over the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn ImagesAnother name that will be well sought after is Glenn, who has completely turn around the Lions defense in their run to a 15-2 record and the No. 1 seed in the NFC this year. Glenn also notably has ties to the organization, as he was drafted in the first round by the Jets in 1994, where he spent eight years and was a two-time Pro Bowler as a member of the organization in his 15-year career in the NFL. Matt NagyCurrently the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs the past two years, spent four seasons as a head coach of the Bears, where he went .500 or better in each of his first three years before being let go after a 6-11 record in 2021. Bobby SlowikA hot commodity this time last year, the demand for his services has cooled a bit after a down year after a sophomore slump for QB C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense in 2024. In what’s been a theme throughout this story, Slowik has ties to the area, a Princeton, N.J. native and his dad, Bob Slowik, spent 10 years in the NFL as a defensive coordinator with the Bears, Browns, Packers and Broncos. Vance JosephJoseph brings tons of experience to the table, serving six years as a defensive coordinator (Dolphins, Cardinals and Broncos) and two as a head coach in Denver. After being fired from the Broncos as a head coach following a 11-21 record in 2018, he’s gone back to the Mile High City and reinvigorated a Denver defense that has completely turn it around in 2024, led by Patrick Surtain II, who’s the betting favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year. Joe BradyNot as polished as the other candidates, Brady has been an offensive coordinator for four seasons, two with the Panthers before joining the Bills prior to the 2023 season. Since his arrival, the 35-year-old play caller has been at the forefront of a Buffalo offense that finished with the second highest scoring offense (30.9 PPG) in the NFL in 2024. Josh McCownMcCown is the current QB coach of the Vikings and started coaching the year prior as the quarterbacks coach with the Panthers. Notably, McCown was under center in the NFL as a QB for 17 seasons and nine different organizations, including the Jets for two years as their starter in 2017. Brian GrieseAnother former QB scheduled to interview is Griese, who has been the QBs coach for the 49ers the previous two seasons. Despite having limited coaching experience, Griese spent 11 years with four different franchises (Broncos, Buccaneers, Bears and Dolphins), most notably winning the Super Bowl as a player as John Elway’s backup in his rookie season in 1998 and made the Pro Bowl in 2000 as the Broncos’ starting QB. General managers Mike BorgonziArguably the top general manager candidate in the cycle is Borgonzi, the current assistant GM for the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Borgonzi has been with Kansas City for nearly two decades and is the right hand man to general manager Brett Veach. He also was notably with Vrabel in KC for two years. Alec HalabyHalaby has spent the last 17 seasons with Eagles and has been the assistant general manager for the last three seasons. Prior to the AGM role, Halaby spent the prior six seasons as the vice president of football operations for the organization. Louis RiddickThe first one to be interviewed for the Jets’ vacant GM spot, was Riddick, as the team reported last week. Riddick, who played six years in the NFL, had front office roles as a personnel executive with the Commanders (2001-07) and Eagles (2009-2013) before joining ESPN shortly after his tenure with Philadelphia ended. While he hasn’t been in the league since, Riddick’s name always come up when team’s are looking for a general manager, as the former defensive back interviewed with the Giants for their opening GM role ahead of the 2018 season before the franchise hired Dave Gettleman. Mike GreenbergGreenberg is the current assistant general manager for the Buccaneers and is the noted ‘cap guru’ for Tampa Bay. He’s in his 15th season with the team and was the vice president of football administration before being promoted to AGM. Ray FarmerFarmer, a White Plains, New York native, spent two years as Browns general manager in 2014 and 2015 but was fired after the team regressed from 7-9 to 3-13 in his final season in Cleveland. Trey BrownThe Jets GM search continues to grow, as they’re requesting an interview for the Bengals senior personnel executive. Brown has been with Cincinnati since 2021 and spent time with the Eagles and Patriots earlier in his career. Ryan GrigsonGrigson is in his third years as a senior vice president of player personnel for the Vikings. Before joining Minnesota’s staff in 2016, he was the general manager of the Colts from 2012-2016, where he finished with an impressive 49-31 record, winning 11 games in each of his first three seasons and never had a year under .500 in Indianapolis. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| BILL BARNWELL’S NFL AWARDSBill Barnwell of ESPN.com offers his picks for various NFL awards. Much edited, full reasoning here. To be clear, these are my picks based on who I think should win the various awards. I’m using what I’ve seen and what the data suggests about this season, not who I think will win the actual awards when the league hands them out before the Super Bowl. As usual, I’ll be giving out awards for Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player. But I also have a few other awards in here as a bonus. Who’s the most underrated player in football? Who had the run of the season? And what was the league’s most unnecessary panic of 2024? I’ll get to those frivolities as well. I’ll start with an award that feels almost impossible to hand out this season: Coach of the YearThere are too many candidates here. Andy Reid should get serious consideration for going 15-1 with his starters in Kansas City. Sean Payton pushed the Broncos into the postseason in a season in which they were supposed to be getting over Russell Wilson’s cap hit. Dan Quinn has the Commanders in the playoffs after the team had a 4-13 record a year ago under Ron Rivera. Sean McDermott rebuilt his defense and got the Bills to 13-4. And Mike Tomlin’s Steelers might have lost four straight to end the season, but they still managed to win 10 games with Wilson and Justin Fields at quarterback. None of them made it into the top three. It’s a brutal competition this season. One thing I tried to consider as a tiebreaker, as I’ve mentioned in my awards columns earlier this season, was how the coach’s skill set directly impacted his team’s performance. The Commanders ranked fourth in points per drive on offense and 22nd on defense, which hurt the candidacy for defensive-minded Quinn. (The opposite was true for Payton and the Broncos.) 3. Jim Harbaugh, ChargersThis time a year ago, the Chargers were in disarray. A year later, a 34-20 victory over the Raiders confirmed the Chargers will finish with 11 wins and the 5-seed in the AFC. Just as he did with the 49ers and at Michigan, Harbaugh has immediately turned around a struggling football team. And he has done that with a roster where just five players were able to start all 17 games without missing time. The Chargers play smart football, don’t turn the ball over and are going to be a tough, physical out for any team they play in the postseason. 2. Kevin O’Connell, VikingsO’Connell’s Coach of the Year vote is a testament to his work as an offensive playcaller and his ability to win 14 games with Sam Darnold, a player many (myself included) had written off as a backup quarterback before the season. – – –While there’s no doubting what O’Connell has done with Darnold, there are a few holes to poke in his candidacy. Since the J.J. McCarthy injury in the preseason, the Vikings have been one of the league’s healthiest teams; the only starters they’ve needed to put on injured reserve have been offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending injury in midseason, and Ivan Pace, who missed the minimum of four games. They had 12 players start all 17 games. Getting back to my argument in the introduction, I’d also suggest the Vikings have been fueled by their defense, which falls more closely under the purview of coordinator Brian Flores. 1. Dan Campbell, LionsOther coaches exceeded their preseason expectations by a wider margin, and that’s usually what wins this award when voters file, but I’m not sure why Campbell isn’t a shoo-in for this award. Winning 15 games is impressive enough in its own right, and unlike the Chiefs and Andy Reid, the Lions weren’t relying on miracles to get to that 15-win mark for most of the season. The Lions faced the fifth-toughest schedule of any team and played in the only division in which three teams won at least 10 games. They swept the Packers and Vikings, who went a combined 25-5 against the rest of the NFL. They went 7-2 against teams with winning records. Of course, they did most of that with a roster ravaged by injuries, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions beat the Vikings on Sunday without 16 players who are on injured reserve, including eight likely starters. By the time the game was over, they were playing without four of their five top pass rushers and their two top cornerbacks but still managed to lock up Minnesota’s receivers in man coverage across the field. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn deserves plenty of credit for the defense staying afloat, and Ben Johnson’s performance as offensive coordinator hardly requires any introduction, but Campbell has made his mark on game days by adding win probability with his fourth-down decision-making. There was more of the same Sunday, when three Campbell calls to go for it on fourth down led to Jahmyr Gibbs touchdowns. A fourth-down conversion early in the game led to a Gibbs touchdown run on the next play. Gibbs caught a second-half touchdown on a fourth down, and after the Lions got the Vikings to jump on a fourth-and-2 for a first down, Gibbs scored from 4 yards out to put the game to bed. Campbell could credibly have been a Coach of the Year candidate each of the past three seasons. He deserves to win this one. Comeback Player of the YearIn the past, I would have leaned toward Sam Darnold as the winner for this award. Before the 2024 season, though, The Associated Press changed its criteria to encourage voters to pick players who have “demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led [them] to miss playing time the previous season.” 3. Tony Jefferson, S, ChargersCan this be something closer to a lifetime achievement award? Jefferson sustained a multiligament knee injury in 2019 with the Ravens and sat out the rest of 2019 and all of the 2020 season. He spent 2021 with the 49ers and Ravens and 2022 with the Giants, then sustained a foot injury that led him to retire before the 2023 season. 2. J.K. Dobbins, RB, ChargersAnother former Ravens player signed by general manager Joe Hortiz who has found success in L.A., Dobbins’ career in Baltimore was blighted by a torn ACL and ruptured Achilles, with the latter injury costing him virtually all of the 2023 season. Signed to a one-year deal with only $50,000 guaranteed, it was unclear whether the explosive back would even make the Week 1 roster. Though he was put on injured reserve in November because of a knee issue, Dobbins was able to return and will be the team’s lead back heading into the postseason. 1. Joe Burrow, QB, BengalsIt’s probably not ideal to win two Comeback Player of the Year awards by age 28, but Burrow is probably going to do it. Defensive Rookie of the YearThough the first 14 picks in the 2024 draft were offensive players, we’ve seen the defensive class come on as the season has progressed. This has been an excellent season for rookie defensive backs, in particular. Instead, although there aren’t many rookie pass rushers having productive seasons, two standouts make it into my top three. And for all the talented cornerbacks emerging across the league, I went with a safety as my third pick: 3. Calen Bullock, S, TexansPick: No. 78Coverage stats can be a little misleading for safeties, given that they aren’t always latching onto single receivers and aren’t necessarily at the center of a play when they make a mistake that leads to a big gain. With that being said, Bullock has the best passer rating allowed for any defensive back in the league this season (39.5). He has contributed to that figure by intercepting five passes, the most of any rookie. 2. Jared Verse, Edge, RamsPick: No. 19Verse was the best rookie pass rusher for most of 2024. He turned 16.8% of his pass-rushing opportunities into pressures, the seventh-best rate among all defenders and one-tenth of 1 percentage point behind the guy just ahead of him in first place. Verse’s raw totals aren’t remarkable, — he has only 4.5 sacks — but he has 11 tackles for loss and 18 quarterback knockdowns and pops consistently on tape. The only thing holding back Verse has been a decline over the second half of the season. 1. Chop Robinson, Edge, DolphinsPick: No. 21Over the first seven weeks of the season, Robinson was having a mostly anonymous campaign. It took a month for Miami to give its first-round pick a regular rotational role on defense, and across 69 pass-rush opportunities, he had no sacks and one quarterback knockdown. Since then, he has been one of the league’s best pass rushers.Robinson finished the season with a modest total of six sacks, which isn’t going to draw massive attention, but he has quietly become a star. Offensive Rookie of the YearAs you might suspect given the number of offensive players at the top of this draft, there are going to be players who miss out here who would typically find their way into the top three. Bo Nix pushed the Broncos to the playoffs with a nearly perfect performance against Kansas City’s backups on defense Sunday, but owing to his inconsistency and play against tougher competition, he’s not here. Joe Alt has been a Pro Bowl candidate at right tackle for the Chargers, while teammate Ladd McConkey made it over 1,100 receiving yards. Bucky Irving had 1,514 yards from scrimmage for the Bucs, more than Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson had in their rookie seasons a year earlier. They didn’t make it, either. There were four candidates in the top tier for three spots. I had to leave out one player, and it ended up being Giants wideout Malik Nabers, who just set the single-season record for receptions in the history of the franchise. He was brilliant early and late in the season, but he was quiet for stretches in midseason, had issues with poorly timed drops and sat out two games in October. That was just narrowly enough to drop him behind my third-place finisher. 3. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JaguarsPick: No. 23Thomas was great all season, but he leveled up after Week 10. Over the final two months of the season, he ranked fourth in receiving yards (675) and sixth among all wideouts in yards per route run (2.9). He did virtually all of that with Mac Jones at quarterback in an offense in which nobody else looked good on a week-to-week basis. It wasn’t fun to watch the Jaguars at any point this season, but Thomas has been one of the few reasons to turn on Jacksonville’s tape. 2. Brock Bowers, TE, RaidersPick: No. 13Thomas had a great season for a wide receiver. Bowers might have had the best rookie season by a tight end in league history. Again, playing with middling-or-worse quarterbacks, he has simply been uncoverable. He broke Mike Ditka’s 63-year-old record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,194). How many records stretching back before the Super Bowl era are even left on the books? After Nabers took the record for receptions by a rookie away early in the day Sunday, Bowers responded by reclaiming it in an afternoon loss to the Chargers, finishing with 112 receptions for the season. 1. Jayden Daniels, QB, CommandersPick: No. 2 As good as Thomas, Bowers and the rest of this rookie class were, it’s impossible to pick anybody but Daniels. Though his pace slowed a bit after I had him as my MVP through the first quarter of the campaign, he has looked like an experienced pro for the entirety of his rookie season. He led dramatic victories over the Bengals, Bears and Eagles with winning drives. Outside of taking sacks, Daniels did just about everything at an above-average or better level. Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and the Commanders did a thoughtful job of limiting Daniels’ exposure to big hits with the quarterback run game, with Daniels typically stretched as a runner only between the tackles inside the red zone or in key moments. He was still threatening enough as a scrambler to generate 891 rushing yards and six scores on the ground; his 67.0 rushing EPA led all players, including Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. In all, Daniels finished fourth in the league in Total QBR, behind the big three quarterbacks of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. He’s a special talent and a much-needed building block for the Commanders, who have their fans believing after a quarter-century of torture from the Daniel Snyder era. Quick-hitter awards Special Teams Player of the Year: Chris Boswell, K, SteelersBoswell has comfortably been the league’s best kicker all season, going 13-of-15 on 50-plus-yard field goals and missing only three of his 79 attempts while playing half of his games in Pittsburgh, a difficult place to kick. Offensive Lineman of the Year: Tristan Wirfs, LT, BuccaneersWirfs led all tackles in pass block win rate while giving up 1.5 sacks and five knockdowns on the blind side, per NFL Next Gen Stats. One of those sacks came on a play extended by Baker Mayfield. He was also left to block one-on-one more than any other left tackle in football. Most Underrated Player: Christian Gonzalez, CB, PatriotsLanguishing on one of the league’s worst teams and with no pass rush to help him, Gonzalez has spent as much time in man-to-man coverage against top receivers as any other cornerback. He has held wideouts to a 71.1 passer rating in coverage and given up only two touchdowns. He was an easy All-Pro selection for me, though he was overlooked for the AFC Pro Bowl roster. Most Valuable Coordinator: Brian Flores, DC, VikingsHow many superstars are there on the Vikings’ defense? The Vikings are the league’s oldest defense and look as if they fly around in their mid-20s. Flores has revitalized Harrison Smith and Stephon Gilmore, developed Cam Bynum and Josh Metellus into valuable starters, and repeatedly coaxed more out of free agent additions than their previous teams had. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman have all had Pro Bowl-caliber seasons in Minnesota. Worst In-Game Decision of the Year: Antonio Pierce punting on fourth-and-1 in Week 1 against the Chargers Offensive Concept of the Year: The “escort” blockerLike a lead blocker for plays heading to the flat, teams found more ways to use what’s known as an “escort” blocker to create different looks for defenses. One common example was zone read escort, in which offenses would pull a tight end or fullback out into the alley and run a quarterback such as Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson behind him. Several teams threw swing passes to Their running backs as checkdowns with a lead blocker serving as a quasi-screen. The escort blocker wasn’t new to the NFL, but we saw more of it around the league in 2024. Most Unnecessary Panic of the Year: Hip-drop tackling and offenses being broken (tie)Former and current players were in a panic during the offseason about the league banning hip-drop tackles, but we didn’t see a single flag for a hip-drop hit until December, and there were only a handful of fines for illegal tackles all season. There were more incorrect complaints about hip-drop tackles that were actually legal than actual hip-drop tackles. Even without congressional intervention, offenses somehow found a solution afterward. From Week 3 through Week 17, teams averaged 23.1 points, more than they averaged through those same weeks over the previous five seasons (22.8). Quarterbacks collectively had two of their best weeks since 2000 in Week 8 and Week 11. Catch of the Year: Garrett Wilson’s one-handed grab against the Texans in Week 9. Pass of the Year: Jayden Daniels’ blitz-beater to Terry McLaurin for a touchdown against the Bengals.I could just as easily have picked Daniels’ Hail Mary to win the game against the Bears, but there’s a certain level of luck and randomness to completing a Hail Mary. This throw — third down, fourth quarter, free rusher, a defense sitting at the sticks expecting a rookie to try to make the safe throw — was the sort of brave, decisive, accurate pass Daniels would repeatedly find ways to make in key situations this season. Run of the Year: Tank Bigsby’s 65-yard touchdown against the Colts. Defensive Player of the YearIf you’re sick of me saying there are too many contenders for all of these awards to reduce them to a top three, here’s where things get narrower. The races for Defensive Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year are much simpler. On the defensive side, I had five candidates for three spots. The first left out is safety Xavier McKinney, who was excellent in his debut season with Green Bay. He just wasn’t as consistently impactful as the other players ahead of him, in part because that’s difficult to do from safety. Meanwhile, Myles Garrett was dominant at his best as always, but the future Hall of Famer failed to record a sack in nine games and was overshadowed by a player in his own division. That player isn’t T.J. Watt, for whom I laid out my reservations in my All-Pro column. Watt is still a great player, but he hasn’t been as consistently disruptive as in previous seasons. 3. Zack Baun, LB, EaglesWhat an outstanding season for Baun, who was signed on a one-year deal in the offseason. Even before taking off the meaningless Week 18 game against the Giants, he simply blew away the competition at his new position. 2. Pat Surtain II, CB, BroncosIn an era in which it’s harder to be a shutdown cornerback, Surtain’s 2024 season checks every box. Oh, and Surtain went all season without a missed tackle. 1. Trey Hendrickson, Edge, BengalsWith Cincinnati’s season on the line, Hendrickson dominated the Steelers on Saturday night. He racked up 3.5 sacks and five knockdowns of Russell Wilson, helping shut down the Pittsburgh offense for most of the day in what would eventually be a 19-17 Bengals victory. Hendrickson leads the league in virtually every pass-rushing category. He’s tops in cumulative figures, such as sacks (17.5, 3.5 more than anyone else), pressures (92) and quick pressures (46, six more than No. 2 Garrett). He’s No. 1 in the rate stats, too: Among defenders with at least 300 pass rushes, he leads the league in sack rate (3.6%) and quick pressure rate (9.5%) and ranks third in general pressure rate (18.9%), where he’s just behind Parsons and Danielle Hunter. One number, though, might be most telling. For most of the season, Hendrickson had more sacks than the rest of his teammates combined. Offensive Player of the YearAs always, I’m not sure how we’re supposed to hand out Offensive Player of the Year in a universe where the MVP always goes to a quarterback. If he’s good enough to win Most Valuable Player, that guy should also be the best offensive player in the league. This award should be redundant. Instead, I keep quarterbacks out of the Offensive Player of the Year discussion and limit it instead to running backs, receivers and (theoretically, at least) offensive linemen. Those guys can compete in the MVP conversation if they have great years, but I want to make sure they get their flowers without being overshadowed by quarterbacks. Unfortunately for me, this is going to involve one painful cut to make it down to a three-man short list. There are two running backs and two wide receivers who have separated from the pack at their respective positions, and four is one more than three. The top two running backs have been more dominant, relative to their competition, than the wide receivers, and between the two wideouts, Justin Jefferson isn’t the one who’s winning the triple crown. The Vikings star finishes fourth. 3. Derrick Henry, RB, RavensMan, I would be mad if I racked up 1,921 rushing yards and finished third in the Offensive Player of the Year voting. The disconnect between how people talk about Henry and what he actually does on the field still applies. Most of the conversation surrounding him is usually about his size and how he can run over defenders, but while that occasionally happens, it’s not what makes him special or wildly productive. Henry’s superpower is his acceleration at 6-foot-2, 247 pounds, his ability to consistently make deep defenders take overly aggressive angles before outrunning those players to and past that spot. Even now, at 31, he’s still so much faster than defenders think in the open field. 2. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, BengalsIf Henry might be mad, Chase should be furious. How can a player win the receiving triple crown and not be the Offensive Player of the Year, let alone a viable MVP candidate? I suppose there are some people who might knock Chase down a peg as a potential award candidate because of his team’s 9-8 record, but given that I just handed Hendrickson Defensive Player of the Year, I’m obviously not doing that with the Bengals. He was Mr. Big Play this season and virtually uncoverable one-on-one for the vast majority of it. 1. Saquon Barkley, RB, EaglesChase just wasn’t Barkley, who had one of the great running back seasons in league history. For all the chatter about how Barkley had a 17th game to approach Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, the Eagles star ended up sitting out the final game and didn’t play a single snap after topping the 2,000-yard mark in Week 17. He got there on his 345th carry. Henry needed 370 carries to get over 2,000 yards in 2020. Adrian Peterson got there in 331 carries in his MVP season in 2012, but Chris Johnson, Jamal Lewis and Terrell Davis all needed more than those 345 carries to get over the 2K mark during their legendary seasons. Had the Eagles wanted to push Barkley in the fourth quarter last week and into this game in Week 18, he almost surely would have topped Dickerson’s record in fewer carries than the former Rams standout (379). Barkley’s ability to set up and hit home runs on the ground was historic. He had six gains of 50 or more yards as a runner, the most since he matched that mark in 2018. The only back with more 50-plus-yard runs in a single season since 2000 was Peterson in 2012. Barkley gained 389 rushing yards on those six carries and ran untouched for 388 of those yards, which is a testament to his offensive line and to his ability to break down defenders and get into the open field. Unlike Peterson, Barkley won’t win MVP. A player needs to carry a team into the postseason as a running back to seriously compete for that award, and Barkley’s Eagles were too good around him for him to qualify. His drop against the Falcons ended up costing the Eagles a game in September, and there were mistakes against the Browns and Jaguars that ended up opening those games against bad opponents into closer contests. I’d love to have had a real debate on our hands had Barkley set the record, but without that on the books, he will instead have to settle for being the league’s most explosive and impressive non-quarterback this season. Most Valuable PlayerWe have a lot to talk about, so let’s quickly narrow down the race. I’ve seen fans make MVP cases for Barkley, Burrow, Daniels, Jared Goff and even Patrick Mahomes late in the 2024 season. Those guys have all had compelling seasons in their own right, but they don’t have strong enough cases to compete with the two guys you know are coming at the top of this list. Let’s start with third place. 3. Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles That leaves us with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Neither clearly won the race with his performance in Week 18. Facing a hopeless Browns team with a chance to set the single-season passer rating record, Jackson completed 50% of his passes, although he had two touchdowns and racked up 280 yards between the ground and air in a comfortable victory. Allen was one of many players who spent Week 18 trying to achieve a statistical goal; the Bills quarterback extended his games started streak by stepping onto the field for the opening snap and handing the ball off to James Cook before quickly exiting what would eventually be a loss to the Patriots. I won’t rank them now to avoid spoilers, but let’s run through a quick series of comparisons to break down who should be MVP: Who was the more productive passer? Jackson. In what might have seemed shocking to people who saw Jackson as a run-first quarterback as recently as two years ago, he was the league’s best pure passer this season. Removing scrambles and sacks from the equation and focusing on what each player did as a passer, his 86.5 QBR was the best in football. It was nearly nine points higher than Allen’s 77.7, which ranked sixth. Allen’s elite sack rate is one of his best traits, but even when including that in the equation, Allen jumps up to only third in QBR, trailing Jackson and Burrow. Across the board, Jackson was more efficient than Allen. He completed a higher percentage of his passes (66.7% for Jackson to 63.6% for Allen). Both were right about where they should have expected to come in by completion percentage over expectation. Nearly 42% of Jackson’s passes turned into first downs, the second-best rate. Allen’s 35.8% first-down rate ranked 12th, just behind Kirk Cousins. Jackson also threw a higher percentage of his passes on target than Allen, while the two had virtually identical precise pass rates. Jackson’s passes were also more productive. The average Jackson pass produced 8.8 yards, which led the league. Allen’s average pass gained 7.9 yards, which ranked ninth, again trailing Cousins. Adding in sack yardage helps Allen, who barely took sacks, but it wasn’t enough to make up the difference. Considering yards per dropback on plays that ended with pass attempts or sacks, Jackson’s 8.2 yards per play still led the league. Allen was fifth, at 7.4. If you prefer EPA per dropback, again, Jackson led the league with 0.17 EPA per snap on those plays, with Allen at third (0.14). Jackson’s 41-to-4 touchdown-to-interception mark was the best mark we’ve seen since Aaron Rodgers posted a 25-to-2 in 2018. Allen didn’t exactly do a bad job here, but he threw 28 touchdown passes against six picks. That should be a clear point for Jackson, but I’ll get to why that’s misleading in a minute. Who was the better passer in obvious passing situations? Jackson. He led the league in Total QBR operating out of the pocket, with his 75.1 mark more than three points ahead of anybody else. Allen ranked third by the same metric, averaging a full yard less than Jackson per attempt while throwing nine fewer touchdown passes and one more interception across 12 more pass attempts from inside the pocket. Switching it to situations in which the opposing team was expecting pass, again, Jackson reigns. NFL Next Gen Stats has a model that projects the probability of a pass on any given play before the snap. He dropped back 259 times under those situations, while Allen did so on 270 occasions. Again, Jackson was better in those spots. He led the league with a 116.0 passer rating and 0.29 EPA per play in obvious passing situations, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 15 touchdown passes against just two picks. Allen wasn’t far behind, but his 0.20 EPA per play in those same moments ranked third. Their sack rates in those spots were virtually identical, with Allen slightly better than Jackson, but Jackson made up for it by being more productive as a passer. Who did more as a runner? Allen. Jackson supporters might consider this a point of obvious strength, given that the Ravens star led all quarterbacks with 915 rush yards. Allen managed only 531 yards, and while that came on 37 fewer carries, Jackson was comfortably more productive in terms of gaining yards than Allen. Yards aren’t everything, though. Allen was a threat near the goal line, scoring 12 touchdowns. Some of those were tush pushes, which we seem to count as something less than a typical rushing score, but Allen had six touchdowns of more than 1 yard and was a threat to score as a scrambler and on other designed quarterback runs near the goal line. Jackson scored only four times as a runner. Allen’s runs were typically more successful, too. Fifty-one of his 102 carries (50%) produced first downs, and he generated a 65.7% success rate as a runner, the best mark for any quarterback. Jackson turned just 48 of his 139 rush attempts (34.5%) into first downs, and although he led all rushers in rush yards over expectation, he was successful on just under 50% of his carries. Jackson also lost significant value on fumbles, leading all quarterbacks with six total, four lost on run plays. Quarterbacks can sometimes be blamed for fumbles on things that are out of their control, but those four fumbles lost were on Jackson. Two were lost when he was a ball carrier; a third was a play in which he bobbled a pistol snap; and the fourth was on a poorly thrown backward swing pass against the Buccaneers. He added a fifth on a strip sack by Chris Jones in the season opener. Allen lost only two fumbles all season, one of which came on an ill-advised trick play against the Ravens. Factor in the touchdowns on the ground and the turnovers from fumbles and the touchdown-to-turnover ratio is actually identical. Jackson ends up with 45 touchdowns against nine turnovers, while Allen has 40 scores against eight giveaways. And when factoring in all of those differences on the ground, Allen makes up all of the gap between the two in the run game. Jackson generated 28.9 more EPA than Allen as a passer this season, but per NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen racked up 49.9 more EPA as a runner than the defending MVP. There’s more to an MVP race than simply adding up EPA, which is where a stat like QBR can be helpful, but that’s a fascinating scenario versus expectations heading into 2024 for both of these players. Who faced a more difficult situation? About the same. It depends on what you consider to be the most important factor. Bills fans are probably suggesting Buffalo didn’t have anybody the caliber of Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry or Mark Andrews after the team traded away Stefon Diggs last offseason. Allen responded by throwing touchdown passes to 13 different receivers this season, which tied an NFL record. Of course, Bills fans were also understandably upset when James Cook didn’t make it to the Pro Bowl after a spectacular season. Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown might have been the best one-two punch at tackle in the AFC. Nobody on the Bills made it to 1,000 yards or really came close, but they saw flashes of impressive play from rookie Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir broke out and they traded for Amari Cooper in midseason, although Cooper missed time with various injuries. The Ravens, meanwhile, were undergoing significant turnover up front, with three new starters along their offensive line in Patrick Mekari, Daniel Faalele and second-round pick Roger Rosengarten. It took those guys a few weeks to look as if they belonged, which also coincided with Baltimore’s roughest stretch of play. Andrews looked as if he was fading out of the lineup early in the season, although he came on later by scoring touchdowns in each of the team’s final six games. And while the Bills added Cooper and didn’t get what they hoped, the Ravens got even less out of Diontae Johnson, who caught just one pass in a Baltimore uniform. The Ravens fielded a better receiving corps than the Bills, but Baltimore’s offensive line was more of a work in progress. And both teams had great backs. Neither quarterback played a particularly difficult schedule. Jackson’s QBR was adjusted up by 0.5 points for the quality of opposition defense he faced in 2023, while Allen’s was boosted by 0.2 points. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens faced the 18th-hardest slate of opposing defenses, while the Bills dealt with the 20th-toughest. Who played better against great defenses? Probably Jackson. This one comes only by sheer volume. Facing the league’s top eight defenses by EPA per play, Allen actually led the league in QBR at 85.6, but he also played only two games against those teams. Allen went just 9-of-30 for 131 yards and a touchdown in a Week 5 loss to the Texans, but QBR liked that he took only one sack and was effective as a runner. He then torched the Lions for 430 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in December. Jackson’s 77.9 QBR against those defenses ranked third in the league, but he faced those great defenses six times in 2024, with two games against the Steelers and one-offs against the Broncos, Chargers, Eagles and Texans. He was mostly unfazed by the competition, as he averaged 8.6 yards per attempt and threw 15 touchdown passes against two picks against the best defenses. He was nearly perfect against the Broncos and Texans, going a combined 26-of-34 for 448 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. The Steelers gave Jackson more trouble, but he had three scores in what would eventually be the division-deciding win over Pittsburgh in December. Allen’s QBR is better, but Jackson was only slightly behind and had to beat great defenses way more often. Who did more in matchups against the league’s other top quarterbacks? It depends. I’m not sure this should really matter, since quarterbacks don’t go one-on-one against other quarterbacks, but I know it will come up as part of the conversation, so I might as well address it. Allen did something no other quarterback did in 2024: He beat Mahomes, with the Bills claiming their fourth consecutive regular-season victory over the Chiefs. Allen drove a stake into Kansas City’s undefeated season, scrambling in for a 19-yard score on fourth down to put the game away in the final minutes. Allen then won a 48-42 shootout with Goff. On the other hand, Jackson’s Ravens narrowly lost to the Chiefs in the opener, albeit on a day in which the reigning MVP amassed 273 yards through the air and 122 more on the ground and came within an Isaiah Likely fingernail of pushing the game to a 2-point try. He was phenomenal in a pair of dramatic, high-scoring victories over Burrow’s Bengals and had no trouble putting away last year’s MVP runner-up, Dak Prescott, in an early-season win over the Cowboys. There’s also the game between these two teams in September, which turned out to be a relatively easy 35-10 win for Jackson & Co. Allen went 16-of-29 for 180 yards, took three sacks, lost a fumble and failed to score a touchdown for the only time in 2024. The Ravens were mostly a Henry show that day, but Jackson was extremely efficient against an oft-frustrating Bills defense. He went 13-of-18 for 156 yards and two touchdowns while adding six carries for 54 yards and another score on the ground. The only blemish on his day was losing a fumble. I don’t value quarterback-versus-quarterback performance very much, but Jackson had more wins over quarterbacks in the MVP picture, including one over his direct rival. 2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills 1. Lamar Jackson, QB, RavensIn the end, although I was leaning Allen as recently as last week, I have to go with Jackson. Allen was the more consistent quarterback on a snap-to-snap basis by virtue of his incredibly high floor; when a player doesn’t ever take sacks, rarely turns the ball over, and can extend plays and pick up meaningful yardage with his legs, it’s almost impossible to stop him. This wasn’t the most spectacular version of Allen we’ve ever seen, but it was a devastatingly efficient performance. Jackson was just a tiny bit better. He was comfortably more productive as a passer throughout the season, and although Allen had his spectacular moments, Jackson might have had more. He played more often against stiff competition and did so at an extremely high level. And although he had better playmakers than his Bills counterpart, he didn’t have the same caliber of offensive linemen. I wouldn’t argue if you prefer Allen. This is a very tight race. I would hardly be surprised if Allen won the award, given the fatigue voters typically show for defending champs and the fact Allen had sewn up a division title for his team by mid-November. With Allen sitting out in Week 18, though, Jackson did just enough against the Browns to convince me he should become a three-time MVP. |
