1    Baltimore                North     13-4                      

2    Buffalo                      East       11-6

3    Kansas City              West      11-6

4    Houston                    South     10-7

5    Cleveland                 WC1        11-6

6    Miami                        WC2       11-6

7    Pittsburgh                 WC3       10-7

8    Cincinnati                                   9-8

9    Jacksonville                               9-8

10  Indianapolis                               9-8

11   Las Vegas                                8-9

12   Denver                                      8-9

13   NY Jets                                     7-10

14   Tennessee                                6-11

15    LA Chargers                            5-12

16    New England                           4-13

In the end in the AFC, it proved as simple as win 10 games and you are in.

Did the second half of the season make any difference?  Well from Week 10, Buffalo went 6-1 through the hit piece on Sean McDermott, to go from 10 to 2. Jacksonville fell from 3 to 9 with a 3-5 finish.

This from OptaStats:

@OptaSTATS

Since the NFL began seeding teams for the playoffs in 1975, the 2023 @BuffaloBills

 are the only team to be at or below .500 with 5 or fewer games remaining and yet still earn a top-2 seed.

Here are the standings after Week 10

W-L                 Conf

1 Kansas City       West        7-2                   5-1

2 Baltimore           North        7-3                  4-3

3 Jacksonville       South       6-3                   4-2

4 Miami                 East         6-3                   4-2

5 Pittsburgh          WC1        6-3                   4-2

6 Cleveland          WC2         6-3                 4-2

7 Houston             WC3        5-4                   3-2

8 Cincinnati                          5-4                   1-4

9 Indianapolis                       5-5                   4-3

10 Buffalo                              5-5                   2-5

11 Las Vegas                        5-5                   3-3

12 LA Chargers                     4-5                  2-3

13 NY Jets                             4-5                  2-4

14 Denver                              4-5                  2-4

In the NFC:

1   San Francisco        West 12-5

2   Dallas                     East    12-5

3   Detroit                    North   12-5

4   Tampa Bay            South     9-8

5   Philadelphia           WC1    11-6

6   LA Rams                WC2   10-7

7   Green Bay              WC3     9-8

8   Seattle                                 9-8

9   New Orleans                       9-8

10 Minnesota                           7-10

11 Chicago                              7-10

12 Atlanta                                7-10

13 NY Giants                           6-11

14 Washington                        4-13

15 Arizona                               4-13

16 Carolina                              2-15

What about the NFC since Week 10?  Philadelphia closed 3-5 and fell from top seed to #5.  Seattle went 3-5, Minnesota 1-6 and fell out while the Rams and Green Bay, both at 3-6, went 7-1 and 6-2 respectively to seize Wild Cards.

W-L               Conf

1  Philadelphia        East        8-1                   6-0

2  Detroit                 North      7-2                   4-1

5  San Francisco    West       6-3                   4-1

 4  New Orleans      South      5-5                   2-3

5  Seattle                WC1       6-3                   5-1

6  Dallas                 WC2      6-3                    3-3

 7  Minnesota          WC3       6-4                   5-2

8 Tampa Bay                        4-5                   3-3

9 Washington                       4-6                    2-5

10  Atlanta                             4-6                    3-4

One other thing, we like to look at.  If the DB ruled the world, the division champs would not get an automatic home game.  They would be seeded with the Wild Cards by record, with Division Champs getting automatic priority over Wild Cards, but only those with the same record.  Some years, that doesn’t change much.  What about 2023?

The new AFC pairings

1    Baltimore                North     bye

2    Buffalo                      East       11-6

3    Kansas City              West      11-6

4   Cleveland                 WC1        11-6

5    Miami                        WC2       11-6

6   Houston                    South     10-7

7    Pittsburgh                 WC3       10-7

So, this week in the AFC would still be Pittsburgh at Buffalo.  But Houston at Kansas City, Miami at Cleveland.

In the NFC:

1   San Francisco       West  bye

2   Dallas                     East    12-5

3   Detroit                    North   12-5

4   Philadelphia           WC1    11-6

5   LA Rams                WC2   10-7

6   Tampa Bay            South     9-8

7   Green Bay              WC3     9-8

So Rams at Philadelphia, Tampa Bay at Detroit, Green Bay at Dallas as is.

NEW YORK GIANTS

DC Wink Martindale is resigning, not re-signing.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Giants and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale are parting ways.

Martindale has resigned today, according to multiple reports.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise given that there was talk all season that Martindale and head coach Brian Daboll weren’t seeing eye-to-eye. Still, it’s a contradiction of what both Martindale and Daboll had said recently: Martindale said last week that he didn’t see any reason he wouldn’t be back, and Daboll said today that he expected Martindale back.

Martindale spent the last two years as Giants defensive coordinator and has previously held that title with the Ravens and Broncos. He’ll now look for a new job on another coaching staff.

WASHINGTON

As expected.

Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the news of Ron Rivera’s firing and the Commanders announced plan going forward:

When the Washington Commanders were sold in July, Ron Rivera was on the clock.

Rivera hadn’t posted a winning record in his first three seasons with the Commanders. Usually new owners want their own coach. Rivera probably needed a winning season to keep his job.

Washington started with a couple wins, but it went south fast after that. There were many embarrassments down the stretch. The Commanders lost in Week 11 at home to the New York Giants, who were 2-8 coming in. They lost 45-10 at the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and Rivera fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio after that. Following the bye, the Commanders faced the Miami Dolphins at home and they trailed 31-7 at halftime. The defense cratered, which wasn’t a good look for Rivera. On one play in Week 15 against the Rams, nobody bothered covering Cooper Kupp, and he was wide open for a 62-yard touchdown. It was a great example of a poorly coached, sloppy team.

It was all too much for Rivera to keep his job. The Commanders fired Rivera Monday, just over 12 hours after their 38-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18.

The Commanders are undergoing many changes, and they’ll have a new head coach next season.

Ron Rivera gets fired

Rivera was a good hire when Washington made it. He was a two-time NFL Coach of the Year, and the Commanders were a mess under Daniel Snyder’s ownership. Rivera brought a sense of professionalism to a franchise that needed it, especially when the controversial headlines with Snyder were piling up. The Commanders won the NFC East, albeit with a 7-9 record, in 2020.

The Commanders never progressed any further. They went 7-10 in 2021, 8-8-1 in 2022 and 2023 was even worse at 4-13.

The ownership group led by Josh Harris gave Rivera a shot. He had a good reputation and a strong track record, though he hadn’t had much success with Washington. But Harris and his group also didn’t hire Rivera and didn’t have any reason to stick with him if there was another losing season.

As the losses piled up, Rivera’s seat got a lot hotter.

Who will Washington hire?

Washington’s job won’t be as toxic as it was during the Snyder years, though there are drawbacks to it.

The roster has not improved beyond mediocrity in recent seasons. Sam Howell has done some good things, but there are still questions over whether he’s good enough to be the team’s long-term quarterback. There’s enough uncertainty that should worry candidates, though the Commanders will have the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft, where either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye will be available.

But it is a new era in Washington with Snyder gone, and there is some optimism ownership can turn around a franchise that has a lot of history but fell on hard times. Finding the right coach to lead the team into a new era will be a huge priority. Rivera kept the Commanders competitive for most of his time with the team, but in his last season the franchise was heading in the wrong direction.

The Commanders are already making sure they have the right people in place to choose the right people to lead the franchise into the future. In the statement announcing Rivera’s firing, the team announced that it had hired former Golden State Warriors general manager Bob Myers and former Minnesota Vikings general manager Rick Spielman to help run the search for a new coach.

Myers and Spielman will be part of a search committee that also includes minority owner Magic Johnson.

“To deliver upon our ultimate goal of becoming an elite franchise and consistently competing for the Super Bowl, there is a lot to do and first we must establish a strong organizational infrastructure led by the industry’s best and most talented individuals,” Harris said in a statement. “As such, we will conduct a thorough search process to ensure we find the right candidates to guide this franchise forward. I consider these decisions to be among the most critical I make for the franchise — attracting exceptional talent, empowering them to lead and holding them accountable. I look forward to being personally involved throughout this process.”

Ian Rappoport of ESPN.com is impressed with the hiring of Myers:

Sources: The #Commanders are hiring one of the best in sports, luring 2-time NBA Executive of the Year Bob Myers to the NFL to help run their franchise. Bombshell.

A 4-time NBA champ, Myers built the #Warriors dynasty before stepping down to work in TV. Now he lands in the NFL.

While they are going to apparently hire a Director of Football Operations first, the Commanders still have requested two coaching interviews.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The Commanders aren’t wasting any time when it comes to starting to compile a list of head coaching candidates.

Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports that the team has requested interviews with Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. The Commanders fired head coach Ron Rivera on Monday morning.

Glenn and Johnson were both head coaching candidates last year and the Lions’ play on the way to winning the NFC North title made them obvious names to factor into this offseason’s searches as well.

NFL teams are not permitted to hold in-person interviews with coaches currently employed by other teams until after the divisional round of the playoffs. They may hold virtual interviews with such candidates, but they must wait until after a team in the Wild Card round of the playoffs has played their game for an initial meeting with candidates from those teams. The Lions host the Rams on Sunday and no virtual meeting can take place with either Glenn or Johnson could happen until next Tuesday.

ATLANTA

Arthur Smith is now the ex-coach of the Falcons and Josh Kendall of The Athletic lays his departure clearly at the hands of QB DESMOND RIDDER.

When Calais Campbell explained in the spring why he signed with the Atlanta Falcons, he said general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Arthur Smith “made me a believer.”

“You need to believe in the people making decisions, and they have a win-now mentality,” Campbell said on April 3. “They definitely sold me.”

He wasn’t the only one who was sold. Team owner Arthur Blank took the medicine doses of 7-10 seasons in 2021 and 2022 with the promise that 2023 would be the year his organization returned to health, and on Aug. 27, he thought the patient had turned the corner.

“They made the moves they had to make over the last couple of years, and I think they got us in position now where our team is going to be more competitive,” Blank said after watching a training camp practice. “I think they would be disappointed if that’s not the case. I would be disappointed. Our fans would be disappointed. I certainly expect us to win more games than we have in the previous two seasons.”

They didn’t. Sunday’s 48-17 loss in New Orleans made that official as the Falcons lost four of their last five games to finish 7-10 again, and it cost Smith his job.

Atlanta announced the decision when the clock struck midnight Eastern time on Monday. Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot has been retained and will help Blank and CEO Rich McKay select a new coach.

“Decisions like this are never easy and they never feel good,” Blank said in a statement. “We have profound respect for Coach Smith and appreciate all the hard work and dedication he has put into the Falcons over the last three years. He has been part of building a good culture in our football team, but the results on the field have not met our expectations. After significant thought and reflection, we have determined the best way forward for our team is new leadership in the head coaching position.”

Veteran defensive tackle Calais Campbell said, “I’ve been around the game a long time so I knew it was a possibility, but I was hopeful that it didn’t happen. I really have a lot of respect for Coach Smith. He’s such a good guy. I think he actually is a phenomenal coach.”

The decision ends a three-year run that started when the Falcons hired Smith away from the Tennessee Titans. One of the most sought-after candidates in a hiring cycle that included Dan Campbell going to Detroit, Nick Sirianni going to Philadelphia, Robert Saleh going to the New York Jets and Urban Meyer going to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Smith was considered something of a coup for Atlanta because he was coming off a very successful two-year stint as offensive coordinator in Tennessee.

That offensive success never materialized in Atlanta, though. The Falcons finished the season 26th in the NFL in scoring (18.88 ppg) and were 24th in Smith’s three seasons (19.59 ppg). It was a meek end for a tenure that started with the promise of more.

Smith replaced Dan Quinn and immediately set out along with Fontenot to reshape an organization that had not fully recovered after blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots in their Super Bowl LI loss under Quinn.

In the first two seasons of the Fontenot-Smith partnership, the Falcons were jettisoning outdated contracts and absorbing the corresponding salary-cap blow, but it looked like the sun might be starting to peek through those clouds before the 2022 season had even ended.

Desmond Ridder started the final four games of that season at quarterback, convincing his head coach he could work as the full-time starter in 2023 and setting into motion the defining narrative of the season.

With the quarterback position, in their mind, taken care of, the Falcons turned their attention elsewhere, hiring Saints defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen to replace retired defensive coordinator Dean Pees and spending 70 percent of their free-agency dollars on defensive additions — most notably safety Jessie Bates, defensive tackle David Onyemata, linebacker Kaden Elliss, defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Bud Dupree.

The Falcons were full speed ahead toward what Blank called “the third year of a three-year plan,” but along the way down that road, they blew past several exits that would have led to other options at quarterback.

In February, Atlanta’s staff coached the East team in the Shrine Bowl in Las Vegas. Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell was one of three quarterbacks on that team. Illinois quarterback Tommy DeVito was one of three on the West team. Neither is Joe Montana, but both proved serviceable for spells this season at a low price.

Then came the flashing neon billboard. On March 7, the Baltimore Ravens placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, officially signaling their star quarterback was on the trade market. Atlanta never took its foot off the gas. By that afternoon, a team source had indicated to The Athletic that the Falcons would not be involved in those trade talks. Worried about Jackson’s long-term health and the cost it would take to acquire him from Baltimore plus skeptical that he was truly available, the Falcons would be joined on the “not interested” list by the Dolphins, Panthers, Commanders and Raiders before the day was over.

Four of those five teams — Atlanta, Carolina, Washington and Las Vegas — would spend the season answering why they didn’t show more interest and ultimately firing the head coaches who were in charge of that decision, but, at the time, the Falcons never looked in the rearview mirror.

Later in March, Atlanta signed veteran quarterback Taylor Heinicke but told Heinicke he was coming to town to back up Ridder. The plan was the plan, and Atlanta was sticking to it. The next stop was the NFL Draft and Smith and company continued to scoff at the opinions of outsiders, drafting running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick. In a league that has steadily devalued the running back position, the Falcons essentially said, “Just wait.”

“Yeah, conventional wisdom,” Smith said after the draft, barely hiding his disdain for it. “Bijan’s more than a running back. He’s an impact football player. He’s a home run hitter. There’s so much paranoia and insecurity in this business. People want to crowdsource things and go with groupthink so they feel good right now. OK, we’ll see. We’ll find out, but we feel pretty damn good about where we’re at.”

Robinson was the first running back selected in the top 10 of the draft since 2018 and just the sixth since 2010.

“There’s a million ways to do it and the thing we focus on the most is, ‘It ain’t about what, it’s about who,’” assistant general manager Kyle Smith said. “When it comes to Bijan … the impact as a player and a person, it was an easy pick man, it really was.”

Atlanta would go on to take offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron, defensive end Zach Harrison, cornerback Clark Phillips III, safety DeMarcco Hellams and offensive lineman Jovaughn Gwyn. Four of the seven draft picks would become starters. All would make the team.

The Falcons were feeling very good about themselves and their plan. Not everyone shared that optimism, though. When the NFL schedule was released in May, they were one of four teams with no prime-time games on the schedule.

“Obviously, you’d love to play those types of games, but this is my perspective: We have to go earn the opportunity,” Smith said. “I take the challenge on us. We have to earn the right to play in those games. If they don’t want to flex us at the end of the season, great, but if we get in the postseason, they are going to have to put us there.”

They never did. Except for a one-week trip to London to play the Jaguars and a trip to Arizona to face the Cardinals, the Falcons played every game in the Sunday 1 p.m. time slot.

June’s minicamp brought the first drops of rain on Atlanta’s parade with the idea that maybe tight end Kyle Pitts wasn’t feeling 100 percent after repairing the MCL tear that ended his 2022 season.

“He’s on his own plan, and once he’s ready to go, we’re all game to go,” Ridder said. “(We’re) excited for him to get back.”

At the time, it was considered caution, but the conversation lingered throughout the season, and Pitts finished the season 10th in the NFL in receiving yards by a tight end (667 on 53 catches).

Still, the Falcons started training camp with a belief, not stated as much as shown, that they had turned a corner. Nowhere was it more evident than on Smith’s upper lip.

The 41-year-old showed up for the first day of training camp with a mustache and said, “It’s a lifestyle change. It’s not for everybody.”

Soon, it felt like everybody at the facility was sporting one as a sign of both solidarity and swagger. “Good Morning Football” host Kyle Brandt expressed his support, growing a mustache and vowing not to shave it off until the Falcons lost a game, and for a moment they had a rare seat at the NFL’s cool kid’s table.

“If you want to be really blunt, going into Year 3, it feels like a real team in Flowery Branch in every single department,” Smith said. “Everybody is going the same direction.”

That direction was supposed to be up.

“The way Coach Art came in with the mustache, it was just different,” third-year wide receiver Frank Darby said at the time. “My first year, he was just teaching me logistics. Then my second year he was telling me about development. Then my third year he walked in like, ‘We’re going to Vegas.’ I’m just like, ‘We ready. Let’s go.’ The energy is just different.”

Las Vegas, site of Super Bowl LVIII, will be Falcon-free in February, but the season at least started well. Atlanta beat Carolina 24-10 and then Green Bay 25-24 to start the season 2-0, and it looked like the thing the Falcons wanted so badly to be true — that Ridder was the answer — actually was. When they walked off the field after outscoring the Packers 13-0 in the fourth quarter, Ridder had won four starts in a row and had accounted for four touchdowns and one turnover in his career.

“He’s a winner, guys believe in him, you can see it,” Smith said. “In those critical situations, he’s at his best. That’s been his history. The guys love him. He embodies what we’re about. That’s what we love about him. So much of this game is not just evaluating the physical tools, it’s between the ears and the chest that’s a big part of it, too.”

Some old familiar fights were already starting, though. After wide receiver Drake London had one target and no catches in the season opener, Smith took on a familiar foe.

“Let the fantasy (football) guys worry about that,” he said. “We don’t care. Drake London doesn’t care. All we care about is 1-0. We have a lot of work — and that has to improve because it’s not going to sustain every week. Every week is its own entity. We don’t care about the stats. We care about winning.”

Then the Falcons got on an airplane and all that momentum built on their home turf evaporated almost immediately. They got trounced 20-6 by Detroit and then lost 23-7 to Jacksonville in London as Ridder turned the ball over four times.

“You don’t want (the defense) getting discouraged because your quarterback is out there making it impossible for you to win,” ESPN analyst Louis Riddick said during the Jaguars game. “That’s something Arthur Smith has to keep an eye on short term and long term.”

Worse than that, a sideline outburst by new receiver Mack Hollins that seemed to be directed toward Ridder in the Jaguars game showed the first signs of strain.

“Somebody was like, ‘I saw that outburst with you and Des,’ and I said, ‘What are you talking about?’” Hollins said. “I didn’t know I did it toward Des, and then I saw the video I was like, ‘Wow, that looked like it was really at Des, like I really don’t mess with him at all, like we could fight right now.’ We never had a problem at that moment or after the game.”

Hollins was angry, he said, because the Falcons had fallen in a quick 17-0 hole.

“You could go out there with no game plan and find a way to score seven points,” he said. “Why are we playing at that level? That’s why I was frustrated. Des literally had nothing to do with it. No matter who had walked up right there, that’s what would have happened because I was at that boiling point.”

Atlanta rode the same roller coaster for the next 15 weeks — beating C.J. Stroud and Houston one week and losing to Sam Howell the next. Ridder would shine — leading a fourth-quarter, game-winning drive against the Texans — and then stumble — throwing three interceptions against the Commanders.

The only consistent aspects of the season were the two most costly ones — quarterback turnovers and an offense that evaporated on the road.

Ridder finished the season fourth in the league in turnovers (19) despite playing only 15 games. Heinicke had four turnovers in five games, and the Falcons averaged 14.33 points per game on the road, 29th in the NFL.

Smith tried to inflate Ridder’s confidence by wading into fights with the quarterback’s detractors. On Oct. 26, he blamed “toxic groupthink” for the criticism of Ridder. Ten days later, he benched him.

“Just for this week with all the variables and doing what is best for this week, Taylor (Heinicke) will play this week,” Smith said before the Falcons hosted the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.

When NFL Hall of Famer and NFL analyst Kurt Warner posted a video on X, formerly Twitter, later that week seemingly defending Ridder and pointing out issues with the Falcons’ offensive attack, Smith responded with the feistiness that has come to define his public-facing persona.

“I don’t care. I really don’t,” he said. “Everybody has their opinions. He’s welcome to come down here to our meetings. I would actually embrace that. I’m sure he gets paid a lot of money. I could give a rat’s … whatever. Unless you’re in the building with our guys and know what is asked of them and know what is really going on. … I think sometimes people get a microphone and the further they are away (from the game), they feel they know everything. Maybe he can solve some of the world’s problems, too.”

Even after benching Ridder, Smith suggested he was the team’s future at the position, and Atlanta returned the University of Cincinnati star to the starting job in Week 12.

“Looking at him, I feel very, very good about where he’s at,” Smith said. “I think he handled (being benched) well. It’s not an easy situation to handle, and I think his best football is ahead of him. We have a lot of confidence in Des.”

Sure enough, the Falcons won two games in a row, and just as surely they lost the next two, kicking off the late-season swoon that ultimately cost Smith his job.

There were hits in Smith’s final season, including the hiring of Nielsen and the addition of well-evaluated free agents (see: Bates’ Pro Bowl season) and the drafting of Robinson, which looks like it will prove to be worth the price. The rookie set the franchise rookie record in yards from scrimmage with 1,463.

And there were extenuating circumstances, namely the season-ending injury to defensive tackle Grady Jarrett in Week 8, which was compounded during the most crucial stretch of the season by an ankle injury that kept defensive tackle David Onyemata out three games.

Ultimately, though, Smith was undone by the very thing that got him the job — the offense — and none of his expertise could overcome the first rule of football — get the quarterback right or go home.

CAROLINA

Another firing in Carolina.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

An ugly season in Carolina has cost Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer his job.

“As we move forward with the new direction for our franchise, I have made the decision that Scott Fitterer will no longer serve as our general manager,” Panthers owner David Tepper said. “I appreciate Scott’s efforts and wish the best for him and his family.”

Fitterer, who was hired in 2021, made the decision last year to trade up to the No. 1 pick in the draft and take quarterback Bryce Young. That decision isn’t looking great right now, given how much the Panthers gave up and how much better No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud has looked than Young, although it’s still possible that Young could develop into the Panthers’ franchise quarterback.

The Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich during the season, so Tepper is starting from scratch in his football operation, looking for a new head coach and a new general manager to rebuild a team that has plenty of roster holes and doesn’t have a first-round draft pick.

Do we know that it is true that Fitterer “made the decision” to give up a Queen City ransom for the first overall pick?

Did he cook up the scheme and take it to Tepper for the owner’s approval?  Or was Tepper the impetus for the trade with Fitterer getting the best deal he could as dictated by a boss infatuated with Young?

ESPN.com’s David Newton lays that – and a lot of other bad decisions – on Fitterer:

The move leaves assistant general manager Dan Morgan in charge of the day-to-day operations for the time being, a source close to the situation told ESPN.

Fitterer had served as the general manager since 2021. He was part of the search committee that last offseason hired coach Frank Reich, who was fired after a 1-10 start.

The Panthers had an NFL-worst 2-15 record this season and are 14-37 since Fitterer took control of personnel decisions.

Fitterer orchestrated the trade this past offseason to move from ninth to first in the draft to select quarterback Bryce Young, who went 2-14 in his rookie season. He gave the Chicago Bears two first-round picks and star wide receiver DJ Moore.

The relevant first-round pick this year will be No. 1 overall.

Fitterer’s past three first-round picks haven’t done well. Besides Young, left tackle Ikem Ekwonu (No. 6, 2022) was responsible for allowing more sacks (19) than any other offensive lineman this past season, and cornerback Jaycee Horn (No. 8, 2021) has missed more than 30 games with injuries the past three years.

Fitterer will be remembered as much for the trade he didn’t make as for the big trade he made. Last season, he traded Pro Bowl running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers for second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-rounder in 2024.

He turned down an offer from the Los Angeles Rams of two first-round picks for outside linebacker Brian Burns and was unable to get a long-term deal with the two-time Pro Bowler before this season.

Fitterer also engineered moves for veteran quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield that didn’t pan out. He gave the New York Jets a sixth-round pick in 2021, plus second- and fourth-round picks in 2022, for Darnold.

He gave up a 2024 conditional draft pick, which turned out to be a fifth-rounder, for Mayfield.

This from Josina Anderson:

Following up: I’m told the Carolina #Panthers, at a high level, has made informal inquiries regarding #Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and its vacancy. Additionally, I’m told there’s been a desire in the #Falcons building to at least determine if Belichick would be a good fit.

When I asked a source within the hour what’s the latest vibe in the #Patriots building so far they said, “Everything is status quo.”

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

A tough break for the Chargers.  Joah Alper of ProFootballTalk.com on the retirement of C COREY LINSLEY:

Chargers center Corey Linsley has likely played his final NFL snaps.

Linsley missed the final 14 games of the season after being placed on the non-football illness list. Linsley was diagnosed with a non-emergent heart issue before being placed on the list and he told multiple reporters on Monday that he is “99 percent” sure that he will retire.

Linsley signed a five-year contract with the Chargers as a free agent ahead of the 2021 season. He made the Pro Bowl that year and was named a second-team All-Pro as well.

TENNESSEE

Mike Vrabel is signaling to the Krafts that he’ll get out of Nashville if they come calling.  Zach Cox of NESN.com:

Rumors have swirled for weeks about Mike Vrabel potentially replacing Bill Belichick as the Patriots’ head coach.

Vrabel would be on board with that plan, according to a report Monday from Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz.

“As the Titans weigh HC Mike Vrabel’s future this week, he’s interested in the idea of returning to the Patriots, should New England part ways with Bill Belichick,” Schultz wrote on the X platform.

Such a move would require some complex maneuvering, as Belichick and Vrabel both remain under contract with their respective teams.

Belichick mentioned his contract status — an out-of-character comment for New England’s head coach — Monday morning during his end-of-season video conference. He later indicated he would be open to relinquishing personnel control to stay with the Patriots, seemingly placing the onus on team owner Robert Kraft to decide whether to retain Belichick or fire him.

If Kraft chooses the latter, Vrabel would be a natural fit given his strong ties to and affinity for the Patriots organization. The former New England linebacker was inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame in October and watched the next day’s game from Kraft’s luxury box at Gillette Stadium, telling fans at halftime “not to take this organization for granted.”

Prying Vrabel from Tennessee likely would require a trade, however. His contract reportedly runs through the 2025 season with a team option for 2026. The Titans are coming off back-to-back sub-.500 seasons under Vrabel, the NFL’s Coach of the Year in 2021, and have not won a playoff game since 2019, when they made a surprise run to the AFC Championship Game.

NEW ENGLAND

As the positioning/negotiating/in-fighting begins, Bill Belichick signals he’s not just going to allow himself to be traded like a piece of cheese.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Despite speculation for weeks regarding a potential trade of coach Bill Belichick from the Patriots to another team, that outcome is looking less and less likely. Belichick’s comments from Monday underscore this reality.

“I’m under contract, do what I always do, which is every day I come in and work as hard as I can to help the team in whatever way I can,” Belichick told reporters. “So, that’s what I’m going to continue to do.”

In other words, I’m working here until they tell me I’m not. And I’m fine with that.

Answers will come after Belichick meets with owner Robert Kraft. As Belichick noted on Monday, it could be a series of meetings.

“We’ll deal with that internally,” Belichick said.

The external message seems to be clear. I have a job. This is my job. I’m going to do my job until someone tells me not to do it. He basically said that.

“I’m going to do everything I can every day to do the best I can to help our football team,” Belichick explained. “That’s what I’ve always done. It’s never been any different for me in my career. I learned that lesson from my dad growing up. You work for the team that you’re working for and do the best you can for it, until somebody tells you different. So, that’s not going to change.”

His team continues to be the Patriots. His contract ties him to the Patriots. He’ll work for the Patriots until the Patriots don’t want him. If they don’t, they can fire him — and then he’ll go find a new team.

He has no reason to go along with a trade. Why would he want his new team to give up one or more draft picks to get him, when all he has to do is say, “I’m going to do my job until you tell me to stop”?

While all signs and signals continue to point to a separation, Belichick doesn’t have to make it easy for Kraft. Belichick doesn’t have to go along with a cake-and-eat-it deal with a new team. He doesn’t have to lock arms for a “mutual parting.”

He can do what he’s doing, and what he quite possibly will keep doing. Shrug and say, I work here until you tell me otherwise.

If he wants to stay with the Patriots (and he quite possibly does), it’s the best approach. It forces Kraft to make the move, and it allows Belichick to exit with maximum options — and also with the possibility of sticking Kraft with a large chunk of Belichick’s 2024 compensation.

Even if it’s not the Patriots, it sounds like Vrabel will either stir things up with the Titans or talk his way out.  Armando Salguero of Outkick.com:

The biggest possible surprise coming from the looming NFL coaching carousel that begins to spin as early as late this evening? Mike Vrabel might be on the move.

The Tennessee Titans coach has said he would like to remain with the club he’s coached since 2018. And all indications point to the Titans wanting Vrabel to remain. But there are other factors at work that do not allow for certainty at this stage.

The Titans gave Vrabel his first head coaching opportunity at age 43 and he’s rewarded them with a 53-45 record that has included three playoff appearances and two AFC South titles.

But multiple NFL sources have in recent days pointed to Vrabel as headed for a possible move from the Titans if other opportunities open. All those scenarios involve the Titans getting significant draft pick compensation for Vrabel in return.

None of this, the sources said, has been discussed within the Titans as yet. Such a discussion would have to involve owner Amy Adams Strunk and Vrabel directly.

The two are expected to have a routine season-ending meeting sometime in the coming week.

And depending on what scenarios are playing out elsewhere, it’s possible Vrabel would be tempted to move on. There’s also a chance Strunk might consider moving to a head coach that might be better suited to developing rookie quarterback Will Levis.

So what jobs might intrigue Vrabel?

It’s clear Vrabel values his time with the New England Patriots, and has a strong relationship with club owner Robert Kraft. So if Kraft fires or “agrees to part ways” with Bill Belichick, Vrabel would be a logical option as a replacement.

And Vrabel would be willing to listen, per sources in the agent community.

The Chargers are focusing on the idea of hiring Jim Harbaugh once his season with the Michigan Wolverines is complete. But that is a volatile situation in that the coach is unpredictable so the Chargers intend to cast a wide net for the job.

That net is expected to land an experienced coach with a reputation for winning. That could include Vrabel if he’s available.

There will be a job opening in Washington when the Commanders fire coach Ron Rivera. The Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers have job openings. And the Atlanta Falcons may have an opening if owner Arthur Blank fires Arthur Smith.

So there figure to be possibilities everywhere.

Titans Have Right To Ask Compensation For Vrabel

But here’s an issue:

Vrabel signed a contract extension in February of 2022 that keeps him tied to the Titans through the 2025 season and provided the team with an option for 2026. Were he to decide he wants to move on, it is extremely unlikely the Titans would simply let him walk.

The Titans would seek draft choice compensation for Vrabel.

And that brings us back to the Patriots. The Patriots similarly have Belichick under contract for 2024. They would prefer to also get draft choice compensation for Belichick in the event he is no longer their coach and is coaching elsewhere.

Yes, it would make sense for the Patriots to send the Titans the compensation they get for Belichick to hire Vrabel.

But Belichick is likely to balk at the idea of having his new team give up compensation to hire him. He might consider it an insult when it is basically the Krafts deciding to move on. That compensation would diminish Belichick’s ability to improve his new team as quickly as possible.

So that issue, perhaps intertwined with a Vrabel move, has to be monitored.

The greater issue is whether or not Vrabel and the Titans, after six seasons, both see greener pastures elsewhere. It would be a parting that NFL sources are not discounting as the coach carousel days are about to begin.

THIS AND THAT

2024 OPPONENTS

The 2024 opponents are in – and if this year’s teams played next year’s schedule the Falcons (and rest of NFC South in general) would have it the easiest, the Browns (and most of the AFC North) would have it the hardest:

@NerdingonNFL

2024 Strength of Schedule based on 2023 records

(1 = easiest, 32 = most difficult)

1 #Falcons .453

2 #Saints .453

3 #Bears .467

4 #Panthers .467

5 #Chargers .478

6 #Buccaneers .478

7 #Dolphins .488

8 #Seahawks .488

9 #Cardinals .488

10 #Titans .491

11 #Eagles .491

12 #Colts .491

13 #Broncos .495

14 #Chiefs .502

15 #Vikings .502

16 #Commanders .502

17 #Bengals .502

18 #Jets .505

19 #Cowboys .505

20 #49ers .505

21 #Rams .505

22 #Lions .509

23 #Patriots .512

24 #Raiders .512

25 #Jaguars .512

26 #Bills .516

27 #Giants .516

28 #Packers .526

29 #Texans .526

30 #Steelers .533

31 #Ravens .536

32 #Browns .547

The Bengals played the first-place schedule in the AFC North this year and finished last at 9-8.  Now, their 2024 schedule (#17 at .502) is significantly easier than the other three teams in their division.

They are the only AFC North team with the Panthers (their 17^th game) and the Patriots.

For example, the Ravens get the Buccaneers and Bills.

2024 DRAFT

The first 18 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft are set, with the Bears on the clock.  ESPN’s correspondents study the needs:

1. Chicago Bears (via 2-15 CAR)

The Bears have the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years thanks to a trade with Carolina from last March. The biggest question is whether they will keep quarterback Justin Fields and use their draft capital to build around him with another wide receiver and interior O-line help, or if they will draft a QB.

The way Fields played since returning from a thumb injury in Week 11 brings up a real debate about whether Chicago is better off with him on this trajectory than starting over in 2024. — Courtney Cronin

2. Washington Commanders (4-13)

Washington’s direction with its first pick will be determined by how the organization views quarterback Sam Howell. With a regime change likely, it’s impossible to know what a new coach or general manager thinks of him. If they like him, they can trade back, add more picks early in the draft and/or in future years (they own five top-100 picks in 2024) and build a quality young roster. But if they’re not sold on Howell, then they can try to move up or select one of the top quarterbacks in the class. — John Keim

3. New England Patriots (4-13)

There’s a decision due this offseason on quarterback Mac Jones’ fifth-year option for 2025. The Patriots probably will decline it, which would mean they’re back in the first-round quarterback conversation. It doesn’t necessarily lock in that they’ll take a passer from what is considered a talented class. Their needs are plentiful, with offensive line and wide receiver atop the list. There is also the rather large question of whether the Bill Belichick regime will be making the picks, so there’s plenty to sort out between now and then. — Mike Reiss

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

To trade or not to trade, that is the question the Cardinals will face with their first of two first-round picks. With Kyler Murray’s play since returning from a knee injury, the conversation about drafting a quarterback has quieted, but Arizona is in a position to rebuild its entire roster with 10 picks in the 2024 draft.

If top wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) is available with their first pick, the Cardinals could pair him with Murray and never look back, or trade down for a haul of picks as well as a prime player. If they keep their top pick, expect it to be an impact player, while the second pick will likely fill a need such as an offensive lineman or another receiver. They also have Houston’s top pick from the trade up last April. — Josh Weinfuss

5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12)

The Chargers are projected to be $34.8 million over the salary cap next season, according to Roster Management System. This means they will potentially look much different next season, as many of their expensive contracts will need to be restructured, traded or released. Drafting the best player available (except at quarterback) would make sense, but with a rushing offense and pass defense that are both at the bottom of the league, the most significant needs are at defensive back, offensive line and tight end. — Kris Rhim

6. New York Giants (6-11)

General manager Joe Schoen said recently that the Giants are going to add a quarterback this offseason, via free agency or the draft. He also mentioned studying the first-round quarterbacks from the 2018 draft, which suggests they’re going to at least consider that position early in this draft depending on how this season ends. — Jordan Raanan

7. Tennessee Titans (6-11)

Only four starters have come from the past three Titans’ draft classes, but general manager Ran Carthon’s debut 2023 class has seen several contributors, particularly on offense. That includes Will Levis, who might be the team’s quarterback of the future. Now, Carthon has to find more impactful players for a roster that desperately needs game-changing talent. The roster also needs to add quality depth players on both sides of the football. The Titans could be in transition, with perennial Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry potentially hitting the market as a free agent. — Turron Davenport

8. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

This will all start at quarterback for the Falcons, who lost four of five games to end the season. They might not be in a position to draft one of the top prospects. They could instead turn their attention to cornerback, offensive line or defensive line. Missing the playoffs makes the quarterback question the biggest offseason issue by far. — Michael Rothstein

9. Chicago Bears (7-10)

This is the second of the Bears’ two first-round picks, thanks to their trade with the Panthers from last March. Chicago last picked twice in Round 1 in 2003, when it traded down from No. 4 and drafted defensive end Michael Haynes (No. 14) and quarterback Rex Grossman (No. 22). — ESPN staff

10. New York Jets (7-10)

The Jets’ top needs are at offensive tackle and wide receiver, and there should be some talented prospects from which to choose. The team’s biggest question is at quarterback. New York will have a healthy Aaron Rodgers in 2024, but will that preclude it from taking a quarterback if it has a shot at one of the top prospects? That would contradict the organization’s win-now philosophy, but it also has to keep an eye on the future. Rodgers is 40, and there’s no guarantee he will play beyond 2024. — Rich Cimini

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-10)

Nothing about the Vikings’ draft plans can be finalized until they decide about the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins’ contract will be void in March. Joshua Dobbs, after a hot start as the team’s emergency starter, has been benched and does not appear to be the answer. The Vikings will have to decide whether they want either (or both) back in 2024 and then assess whether their ultimate draft position will be good enough to select a quarterback who is good enough to factor as a long-term answer. If not, has rookie Jaren Hall shown enough to be in that conversation? — Kevin Seifert

12. Denver Broncos (8-9)

The Broncos are back on the quarterback carousel — again — after coach Sean Payton benched Russell Wilson before the Week 17 game against the Chargers. Jarrett Stidham, who started the last two games, was the 12th quarterback to start a game for the Broncos since the beginning of the 2016 season. The Broncos are poised to walk away from Wilson, including his five-year, $242.6 million deal. Stidham would be the most efficient option given he’s signed for 2024 and Wilson’s contract would put the Broncos in a most uncomfortable salary cap squeeze.

The Broncos have limited draft capital — six picks and only two in the first two days of the draft, with no second-rounder — to make a move. — Jeff Legwold

13. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)

Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce, who elevated fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell over veteran Jimmy Garoppolo in November, acknowledged late in the season he never believed Las Vegas would win a game “because” of the rookie quarterback. Indeed, had the Raiders received any semblance of competent quarterback play against the Vikings (a 3-0 defeat) and in the first half at the Colts, where they lost 23-20, they would have had two more wins. Pierce’s admission lends further credence to the notion that O’Connell is not the future for the franchise. Same with $72.75 million man Garoppolo, a prime cut candidate.

So, for the first time since 2007, and only the fourth time since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, the Raiders could use a first-round pick on a quarterback. A trade up might be necessary to get one of the top passers, but who makes that call, what with Pierce the interim coach and Champ Kelly an interim general manager? Indeed, the Raiders are again in search of a franchise quarterback. — Paul Gutierrez

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8)

The Saints have struck out with first-round picks on both sides of the line: Defensive end Marcus Davenport (2018) left in free agency, edge rusher Payton Turner (2021) has three career sacks, and offensive tackle Trevor Penning (2022) was benched this season. They have one of the worst pass rushes in the league, and Cameron Jordan (two sacks) will be 35 next season. With quarterback Derek Carr signed through the 2026 season and the Saints struggling in the trenches, they might need to start rebuilding their offensive and defensive lines. — Katherine Terrell

15. Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

The Colts addressed their longtime quarterback need last April, and that opens up the draft board in a significant way. They like their offensive playmakers, though adding a receiver couldn’t hurt. Their secondary is young but showing some promise late in the season. With the lack of urgent needs, this draft is the perfect scenario for general manager Chris Ballard, who loves trading out of the first round to acquire additional picks. — Stephen Holder

16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)

The book is closed on the Russell Wilson trade, which means the Seahawks won’t be flush with early-round draft capital like they were in each of the past two drafts. They have an extra third-round pick, but they don’t own a second-rounder after giving it up in the Leonard Williams trade — and they won’t be picking in the top 10 for a third straight year, barring a collapse over the final month. That means it could be easier said than done to replace quarterback Geno Smith this offseason if they were so inclined based on his inconsistent play and the flexibility they have to get out of his contract. — Brady Henderson

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

For a team that started 8-3, the Jaguars have a lot of areas that need to be addressed if they’re going to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2024 and beyond. It starts with the interior of the offensive line (mainly at guard), but adding a big-bodied receiver, finding another pass-rusher and/or cornerback and getting better on the defensive line also are spots to watch. Most of Jacksonville’s impact players were signed in free agency in recent years. It’s time to find some more in the draft. — Michael DiRocco

18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

The Bengals’ draft could hinge on what happens with wide receiver Tee Higgins. In the final year of his rookie deal, Higgins’ production has fallen short of his first three seasons. He had 42 catches and five touchdowns in 12 games. Cincinnati will need to decide if he’s worth a franchise tag or a long-term deal, or it could look at drafting a replacement to pair with Ja’Marr Chase, who could get a massive contract extension in the offseason. — Ben Baby