The Daily Briefing Monday, July 22, 2024
THE DAILY BRIEFING
| With camps opening, Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com looks at eight players anxious for new deals and opines as to what their course of action might be:
Training camps are getting underway around the NFL, but several big names are still facing an uncertain future, either in search of a new contract or at the heart of trade rumors. So which players could actually hold out? And which ones are more likely to report, regardless of their financial demands?
Here, we’re predicting the likely outcomes for eight notable players:
Tua Tagovailoa MIA • QB • #1 The Pro Bowl quarterback was in and out of Miami’s spring program before reporting to mandatory minicamp, where he admitted to growing impatience over long-term contract talks. Declaring that “the market is the market,” Tagovailoa has reportedly yet to receive an offer from the Dolphins that’s comparable to recent deals signed by fellow signal-callers Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. He’s likely torn between playing the good soldier and wanting to secure a pay raise before risking another injury, which makes a hold in a distinct possibility. Instead of risking $40,000 daily fines by skipping camp altogether, he could show up and participate in limited fashion, with unofficial approval from the coaches. Prediction: Reports to camp as a “hold in”
Alvin Kamara NO • RB • #41 One of the Saints’ most accomplished playmakers, Kamara skipped the final day of mandatory minicamp in a contract-related statement. His situation is tricky: He’s clearly vital to the team, but he’s also expensive and nearing 30 with some availability questions. At the end of the day, it wouldn’t be a shock for New Orleans to rework his guarantees, putting a bandage on their partnership. Prediction: Reports to camp regularly
CeeDee Lamb DAL • WR • #88 Fresh off a career year in which he led the NFL in catches, Lamb has basically all the leverage in his play for a long-term deal, with plenty of other teams rewarding their pass catchers this offseason and Dallas mightily dependent on his availability as Dak Prescott’s No. 1 target. It’s why the All-Pro felt comfortable enough absorbing fines to skip all of mandatory minicamp. The Cowboys will inevitably pay up, just as they may with Prescott, but maybe not until after Lamb makes another stand, forcing their hand. Prediction: Holds out of camp
Tyreek Hill MIA • WR • #10 The Pro Bowl speedster has hinted repeatedly this offseason that he’d like a pay raise in the wake of the wide receiver position’s big run of lucrative extensions. He’s also hinted he won’t make a scene in search of a reworked deal, perhaps in part because he’s still one of the game’s top five highest-paid pass catchers, and because teammate Tua Tagovailoa is also due. It sure seems like he’s in Miami to stay. Prediction: Reports to camp regularly
Brandon Aiyuk SF • WR • #11 Few players have been so upfront about their financial displeasure this offseason, with the emergent All-Pro repeatedly teasing interest in other clubs while struggling to find common ground in long-term contract talks with the 49ers. While he initially said he prefers to stay in San Francisco, all signs now point to Aiyuk seeking his next contract elsewhere, with the wideout officially requesting a trade. After already skipping mandatory minicamp, it’d be a mild surprise if Aiyuk suddenly returns to work in the Bay Area. Prediction: Holds out of camp
Amari Cooper CLE • WR • #2 The five-time Pro Bowler was a bit of a surprise absentee from mandatory minicamp, admitting later that he’s seeking a new deal; the former Dallas Cowboys standout is still playing under the extension he signed back in 2020. Cleveland figures to acquiesce to his demands in some fashion, looking to finally get the most out of Deshaun Watson, but it may take time. He could well follow in the footsteps of former Browns running back Kareem Hunt, who attended 2022 camp while sitting out main portions of practice. Prediction: Reports to camp as a “hold in”
Courtland Sutton DEN • WR • #14 The Broncos veteran has gone back and forth in advocating for a new deal this offseason, skipping voluntary workouts before reporting to mandatory minicamp, where he also left the door open for a training camp absence. With former running mate Jerry Jeudy out of the picture, he may have a bit more leverage to command additional guarantees, but he also seems fairly committed to making things work where he is. Prediction: Reports to camp regularly
Haason Reddick NYJ • OLB • #7 The Jets apparently expected the former Philadelphia Eagles star to make do with his current contract upon arriving via trade, even though the Pro Bowler split from Philly primarily due to an unsuccessful effort to rework his deal. His connection to New York has been frayed since, with Reddick openly steering clear of both spring workouts and mandatory minicamp. There isn’t a strong indication he’s ready to bend his stance, as the Jets paid a third-round pick for him to essentially replace the departed Bryce Huff. Prediction: Holds out of camp |
| NFC NORTH |
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GREEN BAY The Packers have some PUPs. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: The Packers made a handful of roster moves as they got ready for training camp on Sunday.
Wide receiver Jayden Reed headlines a group of three players who were placed on the non-football injury list on Sunday. Defensive back Corey Ballentine and tackle Caleb Jones round out the trio. The list is for players who are injured while away from the team and all three players can be activated at any point.
Reed was a second-round pick last year and he caught 64 passes for 793 yards and eight touchdowns. He led the team in catches and yards and tied Romeo Doubs for the touchdown mark.
Ballentine had 43 tackles and an interception last season and Jones made one regular season appearance. |
| NFC EAST |
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NEW YORK GIANTS From retirement, TE Darren Waller shows a keen interest in his old team and confidence in QB DANIEL JONES. Bobby Kownack of NFL.com: He might have retired this offseason, but Darren Waller is still rooting hard for one of his old New York teammates.
The former Giants tight end has every faith in Daniel Jones to bounce back from a torn ACL last season, even after playing just five games with the oft-maligned quarterback in 2023.
“I’m just excited for him to get another opportunity,” Waller said recently on SiriusXM NFL Radio. “I feel like he gets a bad rep. 2022, man, [he] played such good football. Last year was his first opportunity to get out there and play on the new bag that he got. It was tough for us as an offense to protect him, and you can’t put any quarterback back there and not have any protection and expect them to really, truly thrive in the pocket.
“[I’m] hoping that they can get those things shored up and allow him to have an opportunity to show that he is a talented dude, he’s very athletic, like get his opportunity to play the football that he was playing in 2022. I feel like that’s definitely still in him.” |
| NFC WEST |
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ARIZONA A big question about the Cardinals from The Athletic:
Can Kyler Murray elevate the organization? Apologies upfront. This question has been presented in this space before but has yet to be fully answered. There are several reasons — an ACL injury, a coaching change, subpar receivers — but Murray himself is the biggest. He has had strong moments, but not nearly enough. Entering Year 6, this is his time. Concerns about Murray’s leadership and preparation have faded. Coaches and teammates rave about the quarterback’s commitment and drive. He is healthy. His supporting cast is better. And he understands what it means to be the face of the franchise. The next step is the biggest. — Doug Haller |
| AFC NORTH |
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BALTIMORE John Harbaugh has a very high goal for QB LAMAR JACKSON. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson didn’t take part in the team’s first training camp practice on Sunday because of an illness, but neither that nor anything else is leading to doubts about his capabilities in Baltimore.
Jackson won his second MVP award last season, but didn’t have his best day in a loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. That led to renewed questions from outside the organization about whether Jackson will lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl and head coach John Harbaugh said Sunday “you’ve got to just scratch your head about” such things because he and the Ravens have unwavering belief in what Jackson can do.
“The vision that we have together is that Lamar Jackson is going to become and be known and be recognized as the greatest quarterback ever to play in the history of the National Football League,” Harbaugh said, via the team’s website. “That’s the vision. It’s going to happen by Lamar, his work ethic and his brilliant talent, by all of us pouring into that effort together as a team, and by the grace of God and God’s good will. That’s how it’s going to happen. And I believe it like we’ve already seen it.”
Harbaugh said Jackson is “still growing” and is “going to get better and better” before asking what the quarterback needs to do to prove himself to people. The answer is win a Super Bowl and the Ravens’ push toward making that happen got rolling on Sunday. So what is the QB Mount Rushmore? Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas? Have either Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes pushed aside Unitas? Someone else? And Lamar Jackson will rise above all of them. |
| AFC SOUTH |
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HOUSTON We thought RB JOE MIXON had a pretty good run in Cincinnati, but apparently he thinks he was held back. Ciao Miari of TheScore.com: Joe Mixon has been less effective in recent years, but he doesn’t think that has anything to do with age ahead of his 28th birthday. The Houston Texans running back actually believes his production will increase significantly in 2024 when compared to his previous campaign with the Cincinnati Bengals.
“It’s a narrative to y’all,” Mixon, who turns 28 on July 24, recently said about his age, according to Houston Stressans. “But, I mean, the running backs that I see that’s close to 28, 30, 31, 32 (years old), they’re balling right now. So my hopes are high.”
Mixon played his first seven NFL seasons with the Bengals, who drafted him in the second round in 2017. He rushed for over 1,000 yards four times – including last year – but his average of yards per rushing attempt is decreasing. Mixon didn’t average more than four yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, and he posted under four yards per attempt in two of the past four campaigns.
Mixon was also below average in rushing yards over expected among running backs in 2023, per Next Gen Stats. He ranked 32nd in yards after contact per rush, according to Jacob Gibbs of Fantasy Football Today.
Cincy traded him to the Texans in March for a seventh-round pick. The former Pro Bowler thinks landing in a loaded-up Houston offense will be great for his career.
“I know what type of player I am,” Mixon said. “I’m not here to speak for everybody else, but in terms of me, I know for a fact as long as I’m in a great position to win, it’s going to be night and day compared to how I was in Cincinnati.”
The former Oklahoma star racked up 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns in 17 games for the Bengals in 2023. He also caught 52 passes for 376 yards and three TDs. This as the Texans add further to their RB room with the signing of CAM AKERS. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: The Texans are adding another weapon to an offense that is becoming more and more stacked.
Via multiple reports, veteran running back Cam Akers is signing with Houston.
A second-round pick of the Rams in 2020, Akers has had a rollercoaster ride of a career. He came on late as a rookie, with 171 rushing yards in a Thursday night romp over the Patriots. He added 221 rushing yards in a pair of playoff games.
It created high hopes for 2021. And then he ruptured an Achilles tendon just before training camp started.
Then, Akers returned for the postseason that year, rushing for 172 in four games and starting the Super Bowl win over the Bengals.
The next year, he started slowly and ended up on the outs. He was available in trade. He wasn’t traded. Fences were mended. He finished the year with three straight 100-yard rushing games.
In 2023, he landed in the doghouse again, after one regular-season game. He was traded to the Vikings after Week 2. He appeared in six games for the Vikings before suffering another Achilles tendon tear.
There was a belief he’d return to the Vikings, where the starting running back is Aaron Jones. Ty Chandler is No. 2.
In Houston, Akers will get rolling behind Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. If healthy, Akers will give the Texans depth at the position.
And if the Texans are as good as they potentially can be, Akers could end up with a second Super Bowl ring. |
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TENNESSEE QB WILL LEVIS has his eye on Worst to First in the AFC South. They would be the third straight team to do so per Coral Smith of NFL.com: In 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South just a year removed from finishing in fourth. In 2023, the Houston Texans did the same.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis believes his team has what it takes to be the next to make a dramatic turnaround.
“Yeah, I mean, that’s our goal,” Levis said Wednesday, via OutKick. “It’s crazy to think how our division has gone from a second thought in the league to now one of the most competitive, exciting, young divisions. We know what it’s going to take because of that now.
“The NFL is the NFL because anyone can win on any day, and we understand that. As much as people like to believe we’re not going to be worth anything this year, we’re going out there, not necessarily to prove them wrong, but to prove ourselves right and show people what we’re about.”
Tennessee Titans training camp preview: Key dates, notable additions, biggest storylines The Titans finished fourth in the AFC South last year behind a 6-11 record, with the campaign being marked by quarterback uncertainty which saw veteran Ryan Tannehill start the season as the QB1 before being usurped by Levis halfway through.
The 2023 No. 33 overall pick showed flashes of promise in his nine games, namely a four-touchdown performance against the Falcons in his first start, and a comeback effort against the Dolphins in Week 14. But his overall statistics — 1,808 passing yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, a 58.4 completion percentage and a 3-6 record — leave significant room for improvement in his second year at the helm.
In that effort to progress both as an individual and as a team, Levis will have the advantage of going through the whole offseason program knowing he’s the starter, giving him both more reps and a different mindset than he had as a backup rookie QB.
“I think just having a year of being the guy and going through all the spring and OTA periods stuff of being the starter, and really taking the bull by the horns, has been big for me — as opposed to last year waiting around, waiting for an opportunity, and jumping in midway through the season,” Levis said. “Having a full offseason and now a full training camp, I’m really, really excited getting the ball rolling and developing as a player and a leader.”
The Titans have also made efforts to build up the offense around their young signal-caller. They already had DeAndre Hopkins, and added both Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd in free agency to give the WR corps some more power. Add on veteran running back Tony Pollard to fill the hole left by Derrick Henry’s departure and rookie offensive tackle JC Latham to help fortify the line, and this offense looks to be in a relatively good spot heading into training camp.
And of course, Levis will be under the tutelage of new head coach Brian Callahan, who helped develop Joe Burrow into a top QB when Callahan served as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator.
Whether these changes are enough for the Titans to become the latest AFC South team to go worst-to-first remains to be seen, with the next step in preparing for the journey ahead coming when the team reports to training camp on July 23. For the record, the eight teams trying to go Worst to First are: AFC East – New England AFC North – Cincinnati AFC South – Tennessee AFC West – LA Chargers NFC East – Washington NFC North – Chicago NFC South – Carolina NFC West – Arizona The Bengals, last at 9-8 in 2023, would seem to be the best candidates. Maybe the Chargers, but they have to get above Kansas City. Second certainly seems doable. Lots of people think Chicago will rise. Of the others, the DB kind of likes what is going on with Arizona – but to rise past San Francisco? |
| AFC EAST |
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MIAMI EDGE SHAQ BARRETT decides he has had enough. Ian Casselberry of YahooSports.com: Linebacker Shaquil Barrett dropped some bombshell news on the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, informing the team that he is retiring to spend more time with his family. The surprising development was first reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Barrett, 31, explained on social media his decision to retire right before training camp begins.
“It’s time for me to hang it up,” Barrett posted. “It’s been a great ride and I appreciate everything that came with it over the years. I’m ready to shift my full focus to my wife and kids and helping them realize [their] dreams and catch ’em.”
“[I know] to some it’ll be a surprise,” he added. “But I’ve been thinking about this for a while and the decision has never been more clear than it is now.”
Barrett signed a one-year, $9 million deal with the Dolphins as a free agent this offseason after being released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in February. He was due to be paid a $15.04 million option bonus if the Bucs hadn’t cut him before the new league year began in March. Miami signed him two weeks later.
The Dolphins are left in a tough spot with their pass rushers in light of Barrett’s retirement. Their top outside linebackers going into camp as rookies are Chop Robinson (the Dolphins’ first-round pick) and Mo Kamara, according to the Miami Herald.
Jaelan Phillips is recovering from an Achilles injury, while Bradley Chubb is working his way back from a torn ACL. Both players could return during the 2024 season, but likely wouldn’t do so until later in the year. Cameron Goode’s status is also uncertain after he tore a patellar tendon in Week 17.
Miami released Emmanuel Ogbah in February and Andrew Van Ginkel left for the Minnesota Vikings in free agency.
In his five seasons with the Bucs, Barrett was named to two Pro Bowls, played on four playoff teams and won Super Bowl LV (2021) in Tampa Bay’s home stadium. During the 2020 postseason, he had three sacks against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship and added one more versus the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
Barrett led the NFL with 19 1/2 sacks in 2019, adding 58 tackles, 19 tackles for loss and 37 quarterback hits. He reached double-digit sacks in one more season, compiling 10 in 2021.
An undrafted free agent out of Colorado State (where he won Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year in 2013), Barrett began his NFL career with the Denver Broncos. He played four seasons in Denver, winning Super Bowl 50 (2016). He had 14 sacks with Denver, but became an explosive pass rusher with the Buccaneers. |
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NEW YORK JETS After pondering the pluses and minuses, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com puts the Jets in 8th place in his preseason previews: Other NFL team previews: 32. Panthers | 31. Patriots | 30. Broncos | 29. Commanders | 28. Giants | 27. Titans | 26. Raiders | 25. Cardinals | 24. Saints | 23. Chargers | 22. Vikings | 21. Seahawks | 20. Buccaneers | 19. Jaguars | 18. Falcons | 17. Colts | 16. Bears | 15. Steelers | 14. Rams | 13. Bengals | 12. Dolphins | 11. Eagles | 10. Jets | 9. Packers
The New York Jets catered everything around Aaron Rodgers. There’s a reason the Jets employed offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, backup quarterback Tim Boyle and receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb last season, and it’s not because they were great at their jobs.
The Jets are still waiting for a payoff. Everyone knows that Rodgers played four snaps last season before tearing his Achilles. That sets up a 2024 season with extreme stakes. The Jets put all their chips in the middle of the table for a quarterback who will be 41 years old in December and is coming off a major injury, and they’re down to one last shot to get something special out of their Rodgers investment.
“If I don’t do what I know I’m capable of doing, we’re all probably going to be out of here,” Rodgers told the Jets media in May.
Rodgers immediately backtracked after he said that, saying he liked that pressure and that’s just how the NFL is every year. But Rodgers is smart and media savvy. He understood what he was saying (and he had expressed a similar thought at the end of last season). His comment was a precise setup for the Jets’ season. If it doesn’t go as planned, it seems highly unlikely New York would try the same formula in 2025.
The good news is the Jets are set up well to have a huge season. No team should be happy with 7-10 records in back-to-back years, but given how bad New York’s quarterback play was the past two seasons it was a notable accomplishment. The Jets are loaded. All they need is decent quarterback play. That was the story when they traded for Rodgers a year ago. It’s still the story after Rodgers’ injury ruined last season.
Rodgers has his own questions to answer after his injury. For all of the bluster of him returning late last season — it was baffling how much steam that story gained — he’s still not a sure thing. The combination of the injury and his age should be concerning to a team that has so much riding on his play.
The Jets are exceptionally talented around Rodgers. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson could battle for NFL Offensive Player of the Year, like they battled for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year two seasons ago. The Jets added receivers Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley. They improved the offensive line through free agency, a trade and the draft. The defense was again elite — and the main reason the team was competitive most of the season. It could be the NFL’s best defense this year. The special teams were good last season too.
Everything was playoff-ready — except quarterback. The Jets posted a putrid 70.5 passer rating as a team, the worst in the NFL. They had four games with 171 total yards or less, which seems impossible in the modern NFL, especially with skill-position stars like Hall and Willson. And New York still won seven games despite that. It’s not hard to imagine them winning many more games with competent quarterback play, much less MVP-level play like Rodgers is capable of.
Everyone employed by the Jets knows that better happen. The owner made it clear.
“We have all this talent and we have to deploy talent properly. So I think they all got the message. This is it. This is the time to go. We’ve got to produce this year,” Jets owner Woody Johnson said via USA Today. “We have to do a lot better than seven [wins], definitely.”
Few teams have been on that kind of high-wire. The Jets haven’t been to the playoffs since the 2010 season, which is the longest drought in any major American professional sport. If the Jets have another losing season, regardless of bad injury luck or any other factors, they’ll almost surely sweep out the coach, general manager, quarterback, quarterback’s cronies and many others. But also, the Jets realize a Super Bowl is well within their realistic outcomes.
After a season that was lost four plays into it, it’s now or never for the Jets. And there’s no ambiguity over what’s on the line.
Offseason grade One big offseason issue for the Jets was offensive line, after dealing with numerous injuries to that unit last season. The Jets traded for right tackle Morgan Moses from the Ravens, signed left tackle Tyron Smith from the Cowboys and left guard John Simpson from the Ravens, and in the first round they drafted talented tackle Olu Fashanu for some insurance. That’s how you fix a problem. Jets owner Woody Johnson said after last season the team needed a backup quarterback because “We didn’t have one last year,” and the team signed reliable veteran Tyrod Taylor. The Jets took a shot on talented but oft-injured receiver Mike Williams, who was cut by the Chargers due to salary-cap reasons. They lost pass rusher Bryce Huff to the Eagles after Huff’s breakout 2023 season, but traded with the Eagles for Haason Reddick to replace Huff. Reddick and Myles Garrett are the only players with double-digit sacks each of the past four seasons. Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, a former first-round pick of the 49ers, was signed to the line as well. In the draft the Jets had a difficult first-round decision between Fashanu to help the line or tight end Brock Bowers, and that decision could be second guessed. But given the injury history of the veteran tackles, Fashanu was a reasonable pick. Receiver Malachi Corley and running back Braelon Allen, the team’s third- and fourth-round picks, could carve out roles right away. The Jets knew their weaknesses and attacked them. Grade: A-
Quarterback report There aren’t many instances of quarterbacks suffering Achilles injuries, as Aaron Rodgers did last season. Here are the recent examples:
• Dan Marino: Marino tore his Achilles in 1993, then had Pro Bowl seasons in 1994 and 1995. In 1994 he threw for 4,453 yards and 30 touchdowns. Marino played six more seasons, though he tore his Achilles at age 32, a much younger age than Rodgers.
• Vinny Testaverde: Testaverde came back in 2000 at age 37 after tearing his Achilles the year before and led the NFL with 590 passing attempts, throwing for 3,732 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also led the NFL with 25 interceptions and had his worst passer rating since nine years earlier. Testaverde played eight seasons after his injury.
• Jim Miller: Miller tore his Achilles in 2000, but played pretty well in 2001 as the Bears went 11-2 in his starts. His 2001 season was the best of his career, which was spent mostly as a backup.
• Trent Dilfer: Dilfer tore his Achilles in 2002 and was mostly a backup after that, throwing for 20 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in his final four seasons.
There isn’t much history to draw upon when trying to figure out what Rodgers will play like after his torn Achilles. The Marino example provides hope, though Marino was younger and not as reliant on athleticism and mobility as Rodgers. There’s also the age concern with Rodgers. Before Tom Brady, there was very little history of quarterbacks still playing at age 41 and the only positive history was one decent Warren Moon season with an 83.7 passer rating. Brady was an outlier in his 40s, though Drew Brees also had a good season in 2020 at age 41. The combination of age and injury turns Rodgers into a bit of a mystery heading into this season, which is a bit odd to say about a four-time MVP and one of the greatest players of all time. For what it’s worth, Rodgers says he’s ready physically.
“My Achilles feels good, you know, I felt really good at the end of last year,” Rodgers told NBC Sports at the American Century Championship golf tournament in mid-July. “There’s always that kind of plateau part. It’s just about getting back into it. I felt good all spring.”
BetMGM odds breakdown The Jets’ win total at BetMGM is 9.5, and it seems like the bet there is on Aaron Rodgers’ health and effectiveness. If Rodgers, who won MVP in 2020 and 2021, is even above average and everything around him is about what it has been the past two seasons, the Jets should win double-digit games. The Jets aren’t favored to win the AFC East, but it’s close. They’re second at +190 odds (bet $100 to win $190), and the Bills are ahead of them at +165. The Jets’ Super Bowl odds of 22-to-1 rank 11th among NFL teams. Rodgers is the favorite for one award but it’s not MVP. He’s +130 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, leading that market.
Yahoo’s fantasy take From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Garrett Wilson enters his third season overdue for a breakout year. All he needs is decent quarterback play. Wilson ranks 11th in wide receiver catches since the beginning of 2022, and he’s 18th in yards over that span. This solid production came despite a clown car of New York quarterbacks — Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Mike White and the sunset days of Joe Flacco. It’s possible no one in that oddball quartet will start an NFL game this year.
“Wilson’s one light column through two years has been touchdowns — he’s scored only seven times — but again, that’s driven by the spotty quarterback play. Assuming Aaron Rodgers can be merely average — and it’s plausible he might be better than that — Wilson is a slam dunk to improve his touchdown rate. Rodgers has a history of peppering a primary target if that receiver is clearly the No. 1 on the roster, and Wilson unquestionably checks that box in New York. Wilson isn’t cheap as the WR7 in early Yahoo drafts, but there’s still a fair chance of him beating that ADP. I’ll draft him proactively through the summer.”
Stat to remember How good might the Jets’ defense be this season? Pro Football Focus ranked every unit in the NFL, and the Jets had the No. 1 ranked defensive line, secondary and linebackers. Wow. An argument can certainly be made that the Jets aren’t the best in the NFL at all three levels of defense, but they wouldn’t be far from the top spot in any of them. The Jets were No. 3 in defensive DVOA and No. 32 in offensive DVOA last season, which perfectly explains the Jets’ 2023 season. The hope is the offense is at least in the top half of the NFL, because there’s no reason to believe New York falls out of the top five in defense after two fantastic seasons in a row. Of the 11 projected starters on defense, eight return including two All-Pros (linebacker Quincy Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner) and two other Pro Bowlers (defensive end Jermaine Johnson II and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams). One of the new starters is defensive end Haason Reddick, who has 50.5 sacks the past four seasons. Perhaps there’s a bad streak of injuries or multiple players slow down, but the Jets should be fantastic again on defense.
“I feel like we can win a championship, a Super Bowl,” Gardner said, via the New York Post. “We’ve got the guys. We’ve got the coaches. We’ve got everything we need.”
Burning question – Is the Jets offense around Aaron Rodgers good enough? The Jets’ failure on offense each of the past two seasons is even more frustrating because they have one of the best running backs and one of the best receivers in the NFL. Breece Hall has been a star since he arrived, and even a torn ACL during his rookie season didn’t slow him down. He returned from that injury last season to post 1,585 yards from scrimmage on a broken offense. In the finale he had 178 yards on 37 carries, and while that workload made absolutely no sense for a team well out of the playoff race, it showed Hall was all the way back and ready for a monster 2024 season. No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson has 178 catches and 2,145 yards in two career seasons with the worst QB play in the NFL. He could be among the league leaders in receiving with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball.
The rest of the offense has some questions. The offensive line needed to be redone and it does seem much better. The Jets don’t have much at tight end and there’s no obvious No. 3 receiver unless rookie Malachi Corley emerges right away. Mike Williams is a good big-play threat with a career average of 15.6 yards per catch, but his injury history is lengthy and he’s coming off a torn ACL. Williams is very important to an offense that needs someone to help take pressure off Hall and Wilson. The Jets need to figure out the ancillary pieces but having two superstars to carry most of the load is a good place to start.
Best-case scenario The Jets famously haven’t been to a Super Bowl since the 1968 season. The hope was that Aaron Rodgers might be able to change that, and while his first Jets season was a bust there should still be the same reasons for optimism. Rodgers’ recovery from an Achilles injury is supposedly going well, and maybe he is the rare quarterback like Tom Brady who is still good in his 40s. Make no mistake, the Jets are absolutely stacked around Rodgers. They might have the best roster in the NFL around the QB position, or close. The defense could be the best in the NFL and if Rodgers is just above average and the offensive line comes together fast and stays healthy, there’s no reason the Jets can’t win the AFC East. Then there’s the possibility Rodgers is far better than above average. He’s one of the best quarterbacks ever, after all. If that’s the case, the Jets could be the AFC’s No. 1 seed and win a Super Bowl.
Nightmare scenario This is the Jets. It’s the New York market. Aaron Rodgers is involved. There’s a potential distraction every day. Rodgers in particular seems to enjoy the drama, even as he’s chiding the Jets for having too much of it. Five of the Jets’ first seven games are standalone games; if they get off to a slow start the whole world will be watching. The scrutiny will be enormous from Week 1 on. The way this season goes sour isn’t hard to figure out. If Rodgers looks like every other non-Tom Brady 41-year-old quarterback through NFL history, the Jets won’t be very good. It’s not like offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will save them. The Jets’ floor is still fairly high. If they weren’t bad with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian last season, they won’t be bad with a lessened Rodgers, but another 7-10 season will get a lot of people fired. Given how much pressure the Jets are under, it could unravel fast at the first sign of distress.
The crystal ball says … In theory, putting a four-time MVP with the rest of this Jets roster should result in something special. But there’s a reason only Tom Brady, Warren Moon and Drew Brees have posted reasonable seasons after turning 41 years old. Maybe Aaron Rodgers, coming off a torn Achilles, joins that group. Even a diminished Rodgers might be good enough for the Jets. There just needs to be a little bit of skepticism before we see Rodgers play. The Jets are good enough to win the division and maybe much more. They have as much blue-chip talent as any team in the NFL. For now, a top-10 spot in these rankings for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the 2010 season seems lofty enough. And if Rodgers looks like he’s still a top-10 quarterback early this season, get ready for a fun ride in New York. |
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EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS In an interesting and lengthy exercise, three ESPN experts ranked the outlook for the 32 member clubs over the totality of the next three years – from 1 (Kansas City) to 32 (Las Vegas). The rankings are the combination of four factors. Here are their top and bottom individual teams – BEST WORST Roster (minus QB) SF DEN/LV QB KC LV Coaching KC NO/NYJ Front Office PHI NO The biggest surprise to the DB is the Bills up at #3. We think the Rams at #12 are too low. See what you think: Every NFL team will enter the 2024 season trying to win now. But savvy franchises aren’t only focused on the short term — they also keep an eye to the future and set themselves up for long-term success. So which teams are primed to be among the league’s best over the next few years? In our annual Future Power Rankings, we focused on the next three seasons (2024 through 2026) and stacked all 32 clubs’ longer-lens expectations.
To do so, we asked our panel of experts — Dan Graziano, Louis Riddick and Aaron Schatz — to rate each team’s quarterback situation, remaining (non-QB) roster makeup, front office and coaching staff using this scale:
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100: A+ (elite) 90: A (great) 80: B (very good) 70: C (average) 60: D (very bad) 50 and below: F (disastrous)
After averaging the results from the panelists, each of the four categories was weighted to create the overall score: quarterback (20%), roster (30%), front office (25%) and coaching (25%). The result is a comprehensive ranking based on how well each team is positioned for the future. Our experts then picked out reasons for optimism, reasons to worry and crucial stats/nuggets to know for every franchise.
1. Kansas City Chiefs Overall score: 95.3
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 92.7 2 Quarterback 100.0 1 Coaching 96.7 1 Front office 93.3 2
Reason for hope: Name it. The two-time defending champs managed to keep their best defensive player in DT Chris Jones this offseason, then they added speedy wide receivers in Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy to a group that hasn’t had much speed since Tyreek Hill was traded away two years ago. The coaching staff is still intact and still elite. Oh, and we didn’t even mention that they have quarterback Patrick Mahomes. — Graziano
Reason for concern: In this space last summer, I mentioned concern about the runway that future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce had left — he’s turning 35 this season — and whom the Chiefs could lean on as Mahomes’ go-to target when Kelce is no longer running routes. Despite drafting Worthy and high-upside fourth-round tight end Jared Wiley, things will eventually look very different without Kelce on the field. Can we really always expect Mahomes to be able to make up the difference, or will this offense suffer down the road? — Riddick
2. Baltimore Ravens Overall score: 91.6
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 89.7 4 Quarterback 93.0 4 Coaching 92.0 5 Front office 92.3 3
Reason for hope: Adding Derrick Henry to the run game should make it even more formidable, and wide receiver Zay Flowers’ rookie-season connection with Lamar Jackson showed a ton of promise. There has been a lot of change on the offensive line (including rookie Roger Rosengarten now set to start at right tackle) and the defensive coaching staff, but even if the Ravens take a little step back in 2024, they are a steady and well-run organization that’s used to managing through change. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Offensive coordinator Todd Monken led the Ravens to the No. 4 scoring offense (28.4 points per game) last season, and Jackson was fourth in Total QBR (64.7) on his way to his second career league MVP. Going forward, I’m more concerned about those changes along the offensive line. That unit was in the top 10 in both pass block win rate and run block win rate in 2023, so I wonder it will take a step back. Plus, as Dan mentioned, the defense is also undergoing an overhaul with a new coordinator in Zach Orr and a youth infusion at LB and CB. — Riddick
3. Buffalo Bills Overall score: 89.5
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 85.0 10 Quarterback 96.0 2 Coaching 89.7 9 Front office 89.7 4
Reason for hope: Josh Allen isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, and the offense was already transitioning late last season to one built around emerging young stars Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. The Bills spent the offseason necessarily getting younger on defense, and under coach Sean McDermott’s leadership, that group should develop quickly. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The Bills’ pass rush and run game have taken steps forward, so I’m looking at their wide receiver group. Who will step up and consistently win down the field outside the numbers with Stefon Diggs no longer on the roster? I really like rookie wideout Keon Coleman from Florida State, but he must prove to be the team’s next physical, big-play WR. — Riddick
4. Detroit Lions Overall score: 88.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 92.0 3 Quarterback 81.0 12 Coaching 92.3 3 Front office 88.0 6
Reason for hope: The Lions may eventually lose offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to a head coaching job, but it hasn’t happened yet — which is selfishly good for Dan Campbell and Detroit’s offense. The team spent a lot this offseason, but it now has key players (including receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell) secured for the long term. And the culture that Campbell has built here has already resulted in an NFC Championship Game appearance and has the arrow pointing up. — Graziano
Reason for concern: General manager Brad Holmes did everything he could to fix a secondary that gave up way too many explosive plays last season, and Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III will make an impact there. But I still have many doubts about which pass rusher will support third-year defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Hutch has 21 sacks over his first two seasons combined but has had little help. Detroit was 27th in PRWR in 2023, and Marcus Davenport (signed this offseason) has never played a full season in his six-year career, so I’m not counting on the production to come from him. — Riddick
5. Philadelphia Eagles Overall score: 88.8
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 87.0 6 Quarterback 87.0 7 Coaching 84.7 14 Front office 96.3 1
Reason for hope: Jalen Hurts turns 26 next month, and despite last season’s late collapse, he has shown plenty of reason to believe he can be the guy he was in 2022, when the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. Under GM Howie Roseman, Philadelphia also rebuilt the secondary in the draft, and all those young Georgia defensive players that it drafted in 2022 and 2023 should only keep getting better. — Graziano
Reason for concern: After the 2022 season, both of the Eagles’ coordinators left to become head coaches (Jonathan Gannon in Arizona and Shane Steichen in Indianapolis). Now the organization has moved on from offensive coordinator Brian Johnson in favor of Kellen Moore and has hired Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator. With the additions to the roster and the internal expectations that come with big moves for a contender, the coaching staff’s functionality and consistency are what worry me more than anything. — Riddick
6. Houston Texans Overall score: 88.5
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 88.7 5 Quarterback 92.3 5 Coaching 90.7 7 Front office 83.0 10
Reason for hope: Coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud are coming off stellar rookie seasons with the Texans, and each looks like a rising star in their respective role. The front office showed this offseason it will be aggressive in adding talent around Stroud in an effort to maximize the team’s chances to win during his rookie-contract window, trading for Stefon Diggs to get another top-tier pass-catcher for the young QB. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Run game, run game, run game. If improved offensive line play in capturing the line of scrimmage and the 1-2 punch of Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce can produce something close to a top-10 rushing unit, this offense will be one of the best in the NFL and can make Houston a title contender for the foreseeable future. But I have doubts that the Texans can establish themselves on the ground. — Riddick
Nugget to know: Houston was the only offense with two wide receivers who ranked in the top 10 of last season’s ESPN receiver tracking metrics. Nico Collins ranked third, while Tank Dell was ninth. Collins is currently under contract through 2027, and Dell is signed through 2026. — Schatz
7. San Francisco 49ers Overall score: 88.5
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 93.3 1 Quarterback 84.0 11 Coaching 94.7 2 Front office 80.0 16
Reason for hope: Coach Kyle Shanahan is the main reason for optimism over the next few years in San Francisco. The Niners will have star players age out and/or price themselves out in the coming offseasons, but Shanahan has the quarterback he wants in Brock Purdy and has shown a consistent ability to keep his team competitive at a high level when it has been healthy. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The wide receiver room is headed toward an overhaul; either Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. won’t be here for the long term. Though I love the 49ers’ rookie draft class at the position, Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing have to prove that they can complement each other and produce at the level of Aiyuk and Samuel for San Francisco to capture the Lombardi Trophy. — Riddick
8. Cincinnati Bengals Overall score: 87.6
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 86.0 8 Quarterback 94.0 3 Coaching 87.7 11 Front office 84.3 9
Reason for hope: So far, so good for Joe Burrow in his recovery from a season-ending right wrist injury. This is probably the last season the Bengals will have both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins running routes for him, but this is a broad-thinking and sharp-drafting front office that does as good a job as any in reloading when it decides to move on from a star. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The offensive line continues to be an issue. Once again, Cincinnati was near the bottom of the league in pass block win rate (51.7%, ranked 27th) and sacks allowed (50, ranked 25th). Burrow is the second-most-sacked QB in the league since he began his career in 2020, getting dropped 148 times over 52 starts. Furthermore, he has been seriously injured and unable to finish the season twice in his four-year career. The Bengals are in the top half of the league in terms of cap dollars allocated to the OL for 2024, but they must start getting a better return on that investment. — Riddick
9. Green Bay Packers Overall score: 86.4
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 85.3 9 Quarterback 85.0 9 Coaching 86.7 12 Front office 88.3 5
Reason for hope: Quarterback Jordan Love is 25 years old. All of his top receivers are 25 or younger. And this offensive core has already done so much growing together. The surprise playoff experience they were able to get last season will only help accelerate the development of the young offensive group under coach Matt LaFleur. And one of these years, the Packers are bound to get the defense figured out, right? — Graziano
Reason for concern: The reset has been successful, but I don’t know what new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley — who was the head coach at Boston College for the past four seasons — will bring. Can he maximize the talent on the defensive side of the ball and turn it into a consistently dominant top-10 unit? Green Bay was 20th in yards allowed per play (5.4) and 23rd in defensive efficiency (50.8) last season. — Riddick
10. Miami Dolphins Overall score: 84.0
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 84.7 11 Quarterback 79.3 16 Coaching 89.3 10 Front office 81.7 14
Reason for hope: This team has a clear identity and vision under GM Chris Grier and coach Mike McDaniel. The front office has shown that it can be trusted to fortify the roster with targeted additions who fit McDaniel’s plan, and his quirky personality and coaching style seems to resonate with his players. — Graziano
Reason for concern: First off, how will Grier resolve quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s contract situation? Nothing is more important than that; you can’t have the guy who led the NFL in passing yards and was top-10 in QBR in 2023 feeling like he isn’t valued. Second, what will new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver do to galvanize and improve a unit that was decimated by injury and plagued by a poor fit with its former coordinator (Vic Fangio)? Miami was second in scoring last season (29.2 points per game) but 22nd in opponent scoring (23.0). — Riddick
11. Cleveland Browns Overall score: 83.8
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 84.0 12 Quarterback 71.3 26 Coaching 91.7 6 Front office 85.7 7
Reason for hope: The Browns have a deep roster headlined by one of the best overall players in the game in defensive end Myles Garrett and a two-time Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski, who proved last season he could engineer success even when things fall apart at the quarterback position. Speaking of QB, Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked right since he got to Cleveland, but he is still only 28 years old, so it’s not absurd to think he might still turn it around. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The ultimate upside of this organization rests squarely on the shoulders of Watson. Since arriving in Cleveland in 2022, he has played 12 games, completed just 59.8% of his throws and thrown for 14 TDs and nine INTs. His 2023 season ended in late October with a shoulder injury that required surgery. Although the team went 5-1 in the six games he did play last season, Watson has to be available first and foremost — and elevate his play to justify a guaranteed money structure that has never been seen before in an NFL contract. — Riddick
12. Los Angeles Rams Overall score: 83.7
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 80.3 16 Quarterback 75.7 22 Coaching 92.3 3 Front office 85.3 8
Reason for hope: Well, they just made the playoffs in their rebuilding year! How about that for a reason for optimism? Quarterback Matthew Stafford had the kind of season that makes you think he might stick around and play at a high level for a few more years, throwing 24 touchdown passes and finishing sixth in QBR at 63.5. And the young group around him showed a ton of promise and got unexpected winning experience to build off. The Rams’ rebuild is ahead of schedule. — Graziano
Reason for concern: At this time last year, I said Aaron Donald was the only premium defensive player left from the Rams’ Super Bowl-winning team. While Donald has retired, L.A. has brought in some very high-quality young players to help right that ship. But coach Sean McVay had to hire yet another coordinator on that side of the ball, tapping 38-year-old Chris Shula, who will begin his eighth season with the organization but first as an NFL playcaller. With Stafford nearing the end of his career, there is no time for the defense to learn on the job. Results are needed immediately. — Riddick
13. Jacksonville Jaguars Overall score: 82.1
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 78.3 18 Quarterback 84.7 10 Coaching 84.7 14 Front office 82.0 12
Reason for hope: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still only 24 years old, and edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen is a star and young leader on the defensive side of the ball, posting 17.5 sacks last season. Both players were just signed to big extensions to keep them in town. Toss in that coach Doug Pederson has won a Super Bowl and the fact that this group authored one of the gutsiest playoff wins of all time just two seasons ago, and you have a good base for future success. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The Jaguars gave Lawrence a five-year, $275 million contract in June, with $142 million guaranteed at signing. With that kind of deal comes expectations … Super Bowl expectations. The problem is Lawrence probably isn’t even the best QB in his division (I give the edge to C.J. Stroud). I understand the salary game works this way when it comes to QBs, but I worry about whether Jacksonville will get what it paid for, especially after Lawrence tied for fourth in interceptions (14) and first among QBs in fumbles lost (seven) last season. — Riddick
14. Dallas Cowboys Overall score: 81.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 83.0 13 Quarterback 86.7 8 Coaching 78.3 20 Front office 80.3 15
Reason for hope: The Cowboys have shown a consistent ability to draft well over the years, so even if the current roster loses key parts in the coming years for cap reasons, they should be able to replenish. They have superstars on both sides of the ball in wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (1,749 receiving yards, ranking second last season) and edge rusher Micah Parsons (14 sacks, tied for seventh). And I still believe they will get a new deal done with quarterback Dak Prescott eventually. Hey, we’re being optimistic here. — Graziano
Reason for concern: What’s the alternative to Prescott if these two sides are not able to come to an agreement on a contract extension before he becomes a free agent next offseason? More than anything else, that will determine how this team’s future will play out over the next three seasons. Yes, they need to get Lamb and Parsons signed to new deals, too, but the QB is the focus — especially after Prescott was an MVP runner-up and one of only three QBs to throw for more than 4,500 yards in 2023. — Riddick
15. Pittsburgh Steelers Overall score: 81.0
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 81.0 15 Quarterback 70.3 28 Coaching 90.7 7 Front office 79.7 17
Reason for hope: Edge rusher T.J. Watt remains the centerpiece of a perpetually strong defense, leading the NFL with 19 sacks last season. The offensive line looks as solid as it has in a while after some draft replenishments. And George Pickens, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren all look like emerging stars on offense who should keep the Steelers competitive no matter which quarterback starts this season and beyond. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The Pittsburgh offense’s ability to create explosive plays in the pass game is an ongoing issue, and finishing 26th in the NFL in plays of 20-plus yards in 2023 did nothing to lessen the worry. After hiring Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator, making additions along the offensive line (Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier) and overhauling the QB room (by adding Russell Wilson and Justin Fields), my concerns are not as great as they were last summer, but for this franchise to achieve elite status again, it must be able to match the best offenses in the league blow for blow. — Riddick
16. Seattle Seahawks Overall score: 80.1
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 81.3 14 Quarterback 78.7 17 Coaching 76.7 23 Front office 83.0 10
Reason for hope: New coach Mike Macdonald is one of the rising stars in his profession and should have an immediate impact on a Seahawks defense that hasn’t been up to snuff the past few seasons (5.5 yards allowed per play, ranking 25th last season). Geno Smith has proved to be an effective starting quarterback, and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore season should offer a chance to diversify the passing game moving forward. — Graziano
Reason for concern: There is new leadership in the Pacific Northwest with Macdonald taking over as head coach, replacing the legendary Pete Carroll after a 14-year run. Macdonald has been a fantastic defensive coordinator in the NFL, and his credibility and competency in that regard are without question. But he is now in charge of the entire operation, and his offensive coordinator for 2024 (Ryan Grubb) has never coached in the NFL. We will find out in a hurry how quickly these two can adapt to new roles. — Riddick
17. Los Angeles Chargers Overall score: 79.4
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster (minus QB) 70.0 25 Quarterback 88.0 6 Coaching 86.7 12 Front office 76.7 21 Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh’s record as an NFL head coach (from 2011 to 2014 with the 49ers) is a stellar 49-22-1, including the postseason. He has coached a team to the Super Bowl, and he’ll have no trouble instantly establishing the culture and setting the expectations in the building. And by the way, the Chargers have a gleaming new building — their own facility, finally, after spending their first seven years in Los Angeles operating out of a converted office complex. So the vibes should be strong. — Graziano
Reason for concern: I have no doubt that this team will be able to play a dominant, physical brand of football in the trenches offensively, and it will run the ball with authority between Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal. It’s the passing game that worries me. Can the Chargers get Justin Herbert to make the jump to super stardom, where his game is consistent enough to battle the likes of Patrick Mahomes every time they meet? More importantly, will they have the playmakers and the philosophical approach that would even allow Herbert to make such a jump? I’m a believer in Harbaugh’s program, as long as it has the necessary flexibility to adjust and adapt. — Riddick
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overall score: 78.7
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 80.0 17 Quarterback 76.7 18 Coaching 75.3 27 Front office 82.0 12
Reason for hope: The Buccaneers are a three-time defending division champion, so they know how to finish off a season. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is a star on the back end of the defense, and while they don’t have the youngest roster in the league by any means, quarterback Baker Mayfield isn’t even 30 years old yet and looked as good last season as he has at any point in his career. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Mayfield was fantastic last season and was rewarded with a new three-year deal. But he will have a different coordinator this season, with Liam Coen — who was the OC at Kentucky in 2023 — signing on to run the offense. It is critical that Coen develops the same kind of game-day chemistry with Mayfield and the offensive playmakers that former coordinator Dave Canales had. How quickly can that group come together? — Riddick
19. Indianapolis Colts Overall score: 78.2
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 74.3 21 Quarterback 76.7 18 Coaching 84.3 16 Front office 78.0 19
Reason for hope: The Colts may still not know for sure whether Anthony Richardson is a franchise quarterback, considering he was limited to four starts before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in his rookie year, but they do know he has the talent and makeup to be one. And if nothing else happened last season, the Colts came out of it feeling absolutely fantastic about the choice they made at head coach with Shane Steichen. — Graziano
Reason for concern: There are issues with the offensive line, at least relative to what the team has invested in the position group. With the NFL’s second-most cap dollars allocated to the group, you’d expect a better performance than 26th in pass block win rate and 14th in run block win rate. The line has to protect Richardson better in his return from injury, especially given his physical style of play. — Riddick
20. Chicago Bears Overall score: 78.2
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 76.0 19 Quarterback 80.7 13 Coaching 77.7 22 Front office 79.3 18
Reason for hope: Chicago finished last season strong, with the defense finding another gear following the Montez Sweat acquisition at the trade deadline. Plus, the Bears have built a solid core of offensive skill players around No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams, whom they believe has a chance to be a star right out of the gate. If Williams lives up to his billing, the Bears could get really good, really fast. — Graziano
Reason for concern: It’s hard to argue with anything that GM Ryan Poles did this offseason to try to improve on the field. So the spotlight is on the coaching staff, specifically offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. His ability to form a relationship, teach, support, encourage and maximize Williams’ talents will be scrutinized. Nothing is more important regarding the success of his franchise going forward. — Riddick
21. Minnesota Vikings Overall score: 77.2
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 73.0 22 Quarterback 76.0 20 Coaching 84.3 16 Front office 76.0 23
Reason for hope: Coach Kevin O’Connell appears to be another young star in the coaching ranks, as he was able to deftly dance through quarterback-injury raindrops for most of last season. Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the league — and he’s now signed long term — and 2023 first-rounder Jordan Addison shows all kinds of promise opposite him. So a lot comes down to quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but he’s in a good situation to develop quickly. — Graziano
Reason for concern: It remains to be seen whether the defense can take a significant step in its growth toward becoming a title-contending unit. It continued to struggle to generate consistent pressure on the QB last season (21st in sacks per pass attempt at 6.4%, 18th in pass rush win rate at 40.3%), and it didn’t force turnovers enough to impact football games (minus-12 turnover differential, 30th in the NFL). Coordinator Brian Flores will be relied upon to hasten the development of first-round pass rusher Dallas Turner. — Riddick
22. Washington Commanders Overall score: 76.4
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 71.7 24 Quarterback 79.7 15 Coaching 78.3 20 Front office 77.3 20
Reason for hope: New ownership has been a breath of fresh air in Washington, so fans are generally more optimistic than they’ve been in a while. The selection of Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick offers even more reason for optimism. New coach Dan Quinn showed he can win during his first head-coaching stint in Atlanta, so if Daniels lives up to the hype, this could be a fairly quick turnaround. — Graziano
Reason for concern: I think Daniels could have a C.J. Stroud-like rookie season. The concern is the offensive line that will be protecting him. Can Washington improve this unit going forward, particularly at OT? Daniels cannot take the kind of hits he took at LSU in the NFL; the Commanders need him to stay upright and distribute the football from a clean pocket. Washington gave up 65 sacks last season, which tied for second most in the league. — Riddick
23. New York Jets Overall score: 75.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 86.3 7 Quarterback 73.3 25 Coaching 66.0 31 Front office 75.3 25
Reason for hope: This defense looks like a juggernaut. Now, there’s no way to know for sure how long Aaron Rodgers will be in New York, but as long as he is and is healthy, the Jets should have a chance to compete. What comes after Rodgers remains a mystery, but receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall should form a stellar skill-position battery for whomever that is. It is also encouraging that the Jets used their first-round pick on offensive tackle Olu Fashanu. — Graziano
Reason for concern: If Rodgers is healthy this season and the numerous additions to the OL prove productive (and stay healthy), the future looks bright in the near term. But if Rodgers can’t stay on the field and/or the line doesn’t play winning football, it will be the same old story for the Jets. And it could mean they’d be tearing it all down and starting over yet again. — Riddick
24. Atlanta Falcons Overall score: 75.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 76.0 19 Quarterback 80.3 14 Coaching 76.7 23 Front office 71.3 28
Reason for hope: Unlike most teams, the Falcons have their quarterback succession plan already in place, landing Kirk Cousins on a big free agent deal and drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the top 10 this offseason. It may create an icky situation for the next couple of years, but if Penix was worth the eighth pick, that won’t bother anyone for too long. Few, if any, teams can boast as exciting a young skill position group as Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London, and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is seen as a rising star who was pursued by several teams before coming to Atlanta. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Yes, the offense is going to be fine. But what about the defense — specifically the pass rush? The Falcons were last in pass rush win rate in 2023 (30.9%) and have been the worst pass-rushing team in the NFL over the past three seasons. New coach Raheem Morris has both an offensive and defensive background, but the key will be how he helps develop the young defensive linemen taken in Rounds 2-4 of the 2024 draft (Ruke Orhorhoro, Bralen Trice and Brandon Dorlus). — Riddick
25. Tennessee Titans Overall score: 73.3
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 69.7 26 Quarterback 71.3 26 Coaching 76.7 23 Front office 76.0 23
Reason for hope: Will Levis is a talented young quarterback who could develop into a franchise guy, and new coach Brian Callahan has proved himself as someone who can help young QBs succeed. Levis flashed in his rookie season, throwing eight touchdown passes over nine games. The Titans have built a good group around Levis — including signing Calvin Ridley this offseason — which should give him the chance to show whether he’s the long-term solution. If nothing else, by the end of the next three years, the Titans will have an answer on Levis and what’s next. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The post-Derrick Henry era begins in Nashville, and that coach-QB relationship that Dan mentioned will help determine what unfolds for the Titans. Does Callahan believe in Levis’ skill set the same way GM Ran Carthon does? The focus has to be on how this duo grows. — Riddick
26. New England Patriots Overall score: 72.9
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 67.3 28 Quarterback 76.0 20 Coaching 76.3 26 Front office 73.7 26
Reason for hope: Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft, has as much physical talent and upside as any of the quarterbacks who were taken in the first round. The Pats also have Jacoby Brissett in place as a veteran who can start while Maye takes whatever time he needs to get ready. The rest of the offense is clearly a work in progress, but the defense has some young stars including Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez. Plus, New England believes in Jerod Mayo as the franchise transitions from the Bill Belichick era. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The offensive line was the league’s worst in pass protection in 2023 and still needs an overhaul. It finished 32nd in pass block win rate at 43.4%. Remember the name Caedan Wallace, though. How the third-round rookie offensive tackle out of Penn State develops could very well set the tone for this group for the next decade. I’m a big believer in his game. — Riddick
27. Denver Broncos Overall score: 72.8
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 63.3 31 Quarterback 74.3 23 Coaching 84.3 16 Front office 71.3 28
Reason for hope: Coach Sean Payton picked Bo Nix in the first round, and Payton’s track record as an offensive mind buys him some benefit of the doubt as this team sorts through the quarterback situation. There is work to do here on both sides of the ball, but cornerback Pat Surtain II is a true building block for the defense, and Nix could be a perfect fit for what Payton likes to do on offense. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Yeah, this all hinges on Nix. I’m sold on his upside, but there will be questions about whether he can become a top-10 passer in the NFL by playing within the structure of Payton’s offense — and with this group of playmakers. I don’t think the Broncos are good enough on the perimeter yet, but it is up to the front office to provide Nix with more help. This is one of many reasons Denver is 27th in our rankings. — Riddick
28. Arizona Cardinals Overall score: 72.5
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 67.7 27 Quarterback 74.3 23 Coaching 73.0 30 Front office 76.3 22
Reason for hope: After Kyler Murray came back from his ACL injury last season, the Cardinals were a top-10 offense and second best in rushing yards per game. They added maybe the best player in the entire draft in Marvin Harrison Jr., who should be Murray’s top wide receiver right away. And Murray looks revitalized and is playing for a coaching staff and front office that has passed up no opportunity to assert its belief in him. The Cardinals could be a sneaky-great offense as early as this season. — Graziano
Reason for concern: This team will go as Murray goes. There have always been concerns about his level of consistency, but the word is that he is putting in extraordinary work in preparation for the 2024 season alongside his teammates. Can Murray play up to his potential? Is there enough around him? — Riddick
29. New York Giants Overall score: 70.6
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 65.7 29 Quarterback 67.0 31 Coaching 79.7 19 Front office 70.3 31
Reason for hope: Hmm, this one’s tough. First-round pick Malik Nabers has the tools to be a real No. 1 wide receiver, and while edge rusher Brian Burns was a costly acquisition, he should be an impact player on defense (where the Giants have some solid players already in place). Brian Daboll was Coach of the Year in 2022, so if that’s more reflective of his abilities than last season suggested, maybe the Giants can turn this thing around soon. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The front office will remain under the microscope. Even after adding Nabers, has it done enough to support Daniel Jones on the perimeter and with the offensive line? Did it mishandle the Saquon Barkley situation this offseason? Long story short, this team’s decision-makers might not be around in 2025 if Barkley runs all over the Giants in their two meetings vs. the Eagles this season. — Riddick
30. Carolina Panthers Overall score: 70.2
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 65.3 30 Quarterback 68.0 30 Coaching 75.0 28 Front office 73.0 27
Reason for hope: New coach Dave Canales has had success with quarterback revitalization projects before — most recently with Baker Mayfield last season in Tampa Bay. He’s now in charge of getting the most out of 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young, whose rookie season was a disaster. The trade for wide receiver Diontae Johnson could turn out to be one of the better under-the-radar moves of the offseason and help kick-start Young’s development. Johnson caught 51 passes for 717 yards and five scores last season in Pittsburgh. — Graziano
Reason for concern: Management knew that it needed to significantly upgrade the OL for Young to have a chance of developing, and it did just that. No team has more cap dollars allocated to the OL for 2024 than Carolina. The question is Young himself, who was 29th in QBR (33.4) and threw nearly as many interceptions (10) as touchdown passes (11) in 2023. I believed C.J. Stroud was better all along and should have been the pick, and their respective rookie seasons back that up. Young now needs to prove that he deserved to go No. 1 with a big sophomore campaign. — Riddick
31. New Orleans Saints Overall score: 68.6
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 73.0 22 Quarterback 70.3 28 Coaching 66.0 31 Front office 64.7 32
Reason for hope: Oh man. This one’s tricky. Um … Chris Olave, I guess? He’s a true standout receiver, and whoever ultimately replaces Derek Carr in the next year or two should benefit from having him around. First-round pick Taliese Fuaga should help them finally answer the left tackle question, too. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The Saints have played championship-caliber defense for quite a while now, and I’m sure they will again in 2024 and beyond. The concern is the offensive side of the ball, where new coordinator Klint Kubiak must get better production out of a run game that was 31st in yards per carry in 2023 and in the bottom quarter of the NFL in explosive plays on the ground. The Saints need that run game complement to open up the passing game, especially since Carr posted the best QBR in 2023 when using play-action (86.8). — Riddick
32. Las Vegas Raiders Overall score: 66.2
CATEGORY SCORE NFL RANK Overall roster 63.3 31 Quarterback 54.3 32 Coaching 74.0 29 Front office 71.3 28
Reason for hope: The Raiders played well enough last season to allow then-interim coach Antonio Pierce to get the long-term job, so if nothing else, they have a coach with whom the players connect. Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins are outstanding defensive linemen, and the Raiders should be solid on that side of the ball. They’re probably in the quarterback market next spring but should be well positioned to either draft one or find one in free agency. New GM Tom Telesco built and maintained consistently strong rosters during his time with the Chargers, which bodes well for Las Vegas. — Graziano
Reason for concern: The Raiders needed a franchise QB to build around, and they tried desperately to get into position in the draft to select one. But six were off the board by the time they were drafting at No. 13, meaning they will enter this season with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Simply put, they have no chance for sustained success in the AFC West — or the conference as a whole — without a franchise passer. — Riddick |