NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

Team president Mark Murphy says what seems pretty obvious.  Jared Dubin ofCBSSports.com:

Murphy said last week that the Rodgers situation has “divided our fan base.” He had more to say at an event at Lambeau Field on Thursday, and he drew inspiration from former Packers general manager Ted Thompson.

“I’m often reminded though… of Ted Thompson, as most of you know, just a great general manager, passed away (earlier this year),” Murphy said, per NBC26 in Green Bay. “(Thompson) often talked about Aaron, that he’s a… and it wasn’t just Aaron, a lot of different players. He would say ‘He’s a complicated fella.'”

This from Jason Wilde, a Wisconsin media figure the Packers regard as a provocateur:

@jasonjwilde

I cannot get over the fact that there are people I respect/used to respect who can’t see what’s problematic about some of the things the #Packers team president says publicly. I felt like they were smarter/more nuanced than that. Time to log off. Enjoy your Saturday, all.

Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com is outraged:

It’s hard to watch the Green Bay Packers operate these last 15 months and not wonder what the hell they are doing. Their words and their deeds and their grievances and the petty way in which they are dealing with them all invite significant examination and scrutiny.

It’s almost as if Mark Murphy and the powers that be at Lambeau Field would want you to get the false idea that it is their righteously-disgruntled first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback who is at fault for this mess; that Aaron Rodgers is in the wrong. It’s almost like they feel as if somehow each silly statement and misstep is going to shift public opinion in their favor. It’s like they keep doubling down on a losing bet, going out of their way to further alienate one of the most storied members of their iconic franchise precisely at the time when this already-sensitive situation is headed to its most delicate stage.

It’s like they think their fans and “shareholders” are fools. It’s like they can’t help themselves, getting in their little shots and playing their little passive-aggressive games and providing fodder and fuel at a time when they should be showing grace and class, behind the scenes and in front of the camera. Is this some kind of game for Murphy? Is the Packers president and CEO enjoying this far too much? Fair questions to ask after the latest antics out of Green Bay.

We know this much, any idea that Murphy and Co. would somehow be taking the high road in this soap opera has long been expunged. Not possible, it seems. It’s as if these suits whose ham-handed actions and tactless approach to the drafting of Jordan Love – that initiated this inevitable ugly exit by Rodgers – think they are some kind of victim. And in their haste to play that card Murphy continues to speak out of turn and make sophomoric comments that can only exacerbate this showdown.

Let me offer them some really simple advice. Shouldn’t have to say it, but I guess I do: Keep his name out your mouth. Don’t speak about him, or write about him, especially unprompted. The less you say and do in the public eye, the better. Have you been paying attention the last 15 years? Did the debacle with Brett Favre’s exodus teach you nothing?

Thoughts from another provocateur, Mike Florio:

It’s still unclear what Aaron Rodgers wants. It’s becoming increasingly unclear what Packers CEO Mark Murphy is trying to accomplish.

For now, we’ll assume that Murphy isn’t accidentally stirring the pot when he writes that the Rodgers situation is dividing the fan base and says, quoting the late Ted Thompson, that Rodgers is a “complicated fella.” We’ll assume that Murphy’s words are deliberate, strategic.

So what’s the goal? The obvious objective would be to get fans to line up behind the laundry, as fans typically do. At a deeper level, Murphy could be trolling Rodgers, hoping to prompt him to depart from his own strategy and respond emotionally. At an even deeper level, Murphy could be trying to bait Rodgers into not showing up for training camp. Or to not showing up at all this year.

That would allow the Packers to pick up more than $30 million in cash and cap space. That would allow them to develop Jordan Love. That would allow them to trade Rodgers after the season. That would allow them to continue to squat on Rodgers indefinitely, if they want. They’d get back another $11.5 million next year, and they’d never have to worry about him matching his one Super Bowl appearance in Green Bay with a Super Bowl appearance in Denver or Las Vegas or somewhere else.

There’s a chance that’s precisely what Murphy wants. If Rodgers never plays again, Murphy never looks bad. And if Jordan Love never turns into a potential franchise quarterback, well, that wasn’t Murphy’s call, was it?

Alyssa Barbieri of YahooSports.com:

“Complicated” remarks like this — and the ones regarding the division of the fan base — aren’t a good way to get back in Rodgers’ good graces. Which is only good news for Chicago Bears fans looking to finally welcome the Packers to their own personal quarterback hell.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

A broadcasting note from the Panthers.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

“89 is back in the building.”

Eight years after Steve Smith last played for the Panthers, Smith will rejoin the team. The Panthers have announced that he’ll serve as the analyst for the TV broadcasts of the team’s preseason games. And Smith utters the line quoted above in the video announcing the move.

The Panthers, like all teams except the Cowboys and Steelers, have only three preseason games. Carolina faces the Colts, the Ravens (Smith’s other former team), and the Steelers.

Smith, who was cut by former G.M. Dave Gettleman, said that Gettleman “tried to bully a bully” — and that Smith decided he wanted out.

Gettleman is long gone. But Smith, one of the best players in franchise history, is back. Always candid and often feisty, it should be fun to listen to him.

TAMPA BAY

WR CHRIS GODWIN fills in for the vacationing Peter King and drops the nugget that even as he grew up in Delaware, he was a Buccaneers fan.

Everybody wants to have the ball in their hands, but those first few years for me, it was all about the team. All about winning. The physicality, the winning, that’s what really sparked the love of the game for me. Not scoring, not the offensive glory. I think that was really good for me, because since then, football for me has been about the team and the winning—not about the stats.

In that first year, I was put on a team called the Bucs. I didn’t know anything except I was on the Bucs, and I loved football. That was right around the time that I started to pay attention to what the NFL was. I became a Bucs fan. And it was in that same year that the Bucs won their first Super Bowl. That’s the first Super Bowl I watched. What do I remember about it? I was captivated. There’s Derrick Brooks, John Lynch, Mike Alstott, Jon Gruden—that’s my team! They played great and won the game, and then I was really a Bucs fan.

Watching the game in my house in Delaware that day, it looked so awesome. I thought, These guys are doing exactly what I do, but they’re bigger and they get paid for it and it’s on TV. Man, I want to do that! From that day, that was Plan A for me.

And this on QB TOM BRADY:

I saw (on my phone that the Bucs were) agreeing to terms with Tom. I got a notification on my phone. Still I didn’t believe it. I went on Instagram to see if there was any other news on it. I saw a direct message notification. It said it was from “Tom Brady.”

I was like, no, no, no, no, nah, nah. This can’t be the real Tom.

It was the real Tom.

Let me pull it up on my phone. March 17. He said he was excited to play with me, he’s watched me a lot over the years. He even threw a college joke in there: “I won’t hold it against you that you’re a Penn State guy.”

Then he said congrats on your engagement.

I had just gotten engaged. And the greatest player of all time is DM-ing me wishing me good luck with my engagement and saying he’s excited to play with me! That was just shocking to me. I get drafted by Tampa, never thinking I’d ever have a chance to play with Tom Brady, and now, in the prime of my career, he’s gonna be my quarterback.

I told you earlier that some of the best people I’ve met are such positive people. A few of the receivers started catching balls from Tom at this local school, Berkeley Prep, in the spring. I walk up at 7:15 that morning. Is Tom gonna be a Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan-type, super-locked-in from the minute he gets out there? A real no-BS guy? But I walk up and he’s the friendliest guy. For someone who’s so accomplished and as highly regarded as he is, he was humble and receptive to the thoughts and opinions of his new teammates. We helped teach him the playbook, and he was super-receptive.

I remember thinking, “He’s out here to earn our respect, to show that he was here to work. No one’s gonna be given anything.” That message was received loud and clear. He never said anything like, Do what I say! Very cool for me to see someone so accomplished to be working as hard as he was, but also like just a normal person who wanted to be one of the guys.

The COVID restrictions really hurt teams trying to get important guys ready to play early. The first time we ever got in a huddle with Tom, the first time he worked on cadence with us, was a month before our first game. What you saw throughout the season was us having growing pains. We were figuring everything out on the fly. It sucked that we had to find out a lot of the ugly stuff in front of the world. But we kept working, and we figured it out.

– – –

This offseason, we became the first Super Bowl winner ever to bring back all of our starters, our key subs, our coach and coordinators and our GM. We appreciate what the GM, Jason Licht, did bringing us all back to take our best shot.

No one knows what kind of impact that will have, when you bring all the players back. But I think it’s a really good thing because we felt like we hadn’t played our best ball, even in the Super Bowl. We scored 31 points, but it wasn’t a great game for our offense for four quarters. We know we can be better. And I think we will be better. Our offseason gives us a really good opportunity to do that. But anybody who comes in saying we’re automatically in great position to win again because we brought everyone back? You’re lying to yourself. Familiarity guarantees nothing except giving us a good starting point.

As for Tom, we’ve thrown a few times this spring. His arm is so live. What I appreciate about him is the ball he throws is so receiver-friendly—the touch, and putting it right where you want it. I think, mentally, he has a good feel for the fact that he knows everyone isn’t like him. Because he’s like, “Okay, on to the next one.” But he’s not forcing his attitude onto anyone. Now, if we get to training camp, and guys keep saying, Remember this and that from last year? Then he’d say something. But I don’t see that happening. We know what the mission is.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com has some thoughts about Coach Kyle Shanahan and the trade up for pick #3:

The 49ers crafted a gratuitous mystery when they moved from No. 12 to No. 3 in the 2021 draft, given that they knew they ran the board after Trevor Lawrence inevitably went to the Jaguars and Zach Wilson inevitably went to the Jets.

More than a month later, coach Kyle Shanahan finds humor in the fact that they successfully caused people to believe that they made the move to get Mac Jones, not Trey Lance.

“I do laugh at . . . that everyone thinks that they know exactly what I want at quarterback because I thought we had a chance to get [Kirk Cousins], the number one free agent quarterback who was going to be on the market in our second year,” Shanahan told Tim Kawakami of TheAthletic.com, via NBC Sports Bay Area. “And since we did, people just assume that’s how I would draw it up, which if you draw it up, obviously you’re going to give the guy everything. I do believe that you have to be able to win from the pocket in this league as a quarterback or it will catch up to you. But holy cow, if you can run, it makes playing from the pocket a lot easier because those defenses are going to change and stuff.”

He’s right. And he could have had a guy like that in Patrick Mahomes, with the second pick in the 2017 draft. But Shanahan was so hell bent on signing cousins in 2018 that he ignored both Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.

Personally (and at the risk of Kyle finding this annoying), I think the 49ers have freaked out a little bit (or a lot) after whiffing on Mahomes in 2017 and Tom Brady (who wanted badly to play for his hometown team) in 2020. They decided they can’t trust Jimmy Garoppolo to stay healthy, so they ultimately invested three first-round picks and a third-round pick in the ability to select Jones or Justin Fields or Lance. The fact that knowledgeable people (including Chris Simms, a former college teammate and close friend of Shanahan’s) believed it definitely was Jones means it definitely could have been Jones before Shanahan was persuaded by others in the organization to go all in with Lance.

Right or wrong, the ill-advised guessing game when there was no risk of being leapfrogged invites speculation that it was Jones before it was Lance — especially since the team did nothing to push back on the perception that it was Jones once people like Simms started saying it was Jones. Shanahan may have thought (as he’s said) that it all was an interesting case study in human dynamics. That may be the case, but it was also a piss-poor exercise by the franchise in crafting fan and media expectations.

THERE WAS NO NEED TO BE SECRETIVE, unless they traded up without truly knowing which player they planned to take. And if that’s the truth, then they did allow the Mahomes and Brady misadventures to cloud their judgment, because they could have stayed put at No. 12 and gotten Lance or Jones — especially since no one would have expected them to take either guy.

I know that this take will prompt 49ers fans to say I hate their team, just as the fans of every other team I ever criticize will say. And that’s fine. But it sure feels like the 49ers have f–ked this up, and it feels like (given the likelihood that Garoppolo will be the Week One starter for the 49er and given the very real possibility he’ll stay healthy all year like he did in 2019), they may f–k it up some more.

The flip side of this is the Buccaneers waiting while three other teams took offensive tackles in 2020 and getting T TRISTAN WIRFS.  Was Wirfs #1, #2, #3 or #4 on Tampa Bay’s actual list?  We’ll never know and it doesn’t matter.  The Bucs got the prize.

And Shanahan’s maneuver will forever be judged on QB TREY LANCE – and because so much more is now at stake, he had better be a superstar (despite one year and one game as an FCS QB).

On the other hand, the Patriots and MAC JONES are in a much less pressurized position.  He was the one that was left in the end, just like Wirfs.

SEATTLE

According to Pete Carroll the storm immediately after the season has passed, to be replaced by a peaceful calm with QB RUSSELL WILSON.  Brady Henderson ofESPN.com:

To hear coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider tell it, all is well between the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson.

And according to the team’s top two decision-makers, there was never any real thought given to trading their franchise quarterback.

The Seahawks made Carroll and Schneider available to reporters Wednesday for the first time since Wilson publicly voiced his frustrations about the organization during a pair of media interviews in February. Among those frustrations were all the hits and sacks he has taken over his nine seasons in Seattle.

“There was some stuff that was said that had to be dealt with, and it has been,” Carroll said. “So Russ is in a great place right now, and he’s been in a great place throughout the offseason. We have communicated throughout all of the things just like I always have.”

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported in March that the Chicago Bears made a “very aggressive pursuit” of Wilson but were told the Seahawks weren’t trading him at that time. Asked about the Bears’ pursuit of Wilson, Schneider declined to specify which teams inquired about his availability.

“There was a number of teams that called after that media blitz that happened,” Schneider said. “But no, I never actively negotiated with anybody and with any team. Did people call? Absolutely.”

Wilson voiced his frustrations over Seattle’s pass protection and stated a desire for more say in personnel decisions during an appearance on “The Dan Patrick Show” and in a separate interview set up for the quarterback to discuss his being named the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year. Those comments marked the first time he had publicly expressed any degree of dissatisfaction with the organization that drafted him in 2012.

“Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are two of the most passionate and competitive people that I know, and passionate people just say passionate things,” Schneider said. “I think that it just kind of came out.”

Carroll said there wasn’t a problem between the organization and Wilson, only a problem of having to weather the media storm that resulted from the quarterback going public with his unhappiness. Asked if Wilson’s comments violated Carroll’s No. 1 rule — always protect the team — Carroll said they “challenged” the rule.

“The conversation is out there that we wish we didn’t have to be sharing with the world and all of that,” he said. “You never get to the clarity and the essence of it when you have to operate through the media. That’s why we tried to go really quiet in all of that.”

That quiet approach by Carroll meant not making any sort of statement through the team that could have put speculation about Wilson’s future to bed. Carroll said he’s strict about not communicating through the media, something he learned a long time ago from Bud Grant.

“I said [to Wilson]: ‘You will not hear a peep out of me and you can do that, too, and just let the stuff that’s being said go,’ but it’s hard. It’s hard for people, and not everybody can do that. It takes real discipline to do that and it’s a learning [process], and hopefully Russ will always be better for it because he’s been through a lot of that, and hopefully other guys can learn from that as well. The power comes from knowing really the truth and knowing what was going on. … The truth is that he wasn’t getting traded and he’s on our roster and he’s signed up for a long time around here, and anything that could ever take place was so far out there that could ever happen that it was not even worth considering.”

Carroll said he regularly seeks input from Wilson and other players and that the quarterback never demanded that he have more say in personnel moves. Sources have told ESPN that Wilson’s frustrations have gone beyond pass protection and his perceived lack of say in acquisitions relative to other top quarterbacks. Wilson has also wanted more of Seattle’s offense to go through him, an issue detailed in a story by The Athletic.

As reported in that story, Wilson stormed out of a meeting with Seahawks coaches last season out of frustration that his suggestions for fixing the team’s sputtering offense were dismissed.

Shortly after The Athletic story published, Wilson’s agent, Mark Rodgers, told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that while Wilson has not demanded a trade, he would only accept a trade to the Bears, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders, if Seattle were to deal him. Wilson has a no-trade clause in the four-year, $140 million extension he signed in 2019. That deal has three years remaining.

“I had made a clear statement to Russ: ‘Let’s just shut down and be quiet on this stuff,'” Carroll said when asked about speculation over Wilson’s future gaining steam once Rodgers gave Schefter the list of acceptable trade destinations. “We don’t need to say anything, we know the truth of what’s going on. When that came out, that kind of got over the top in that it opened up some other conversations that didn’t need to happen. That was an example of why we’re quiet and why we don’t say anything. It was so meaningless because it had nothing to with what was going on. It gave another little byte in there that people could talk about, and I wish we would have avoided that is what I’m saying.”

A source told ESPN that Wilson worked to recruit running back Chris Carson back to Seattle. He celebrated Carson’s return on Twitter and did the same with several of the team’s other moves in free agency.

“Right now, he is as jacked up as he’s ever been,” Carroll said. “He’s in the process of turning over our new offensive stuff that is different from the past and things that we need to learn. He’s totally after it and doing a great job, his mentality is strong, and his conditioning is right. He’s doing a great job. So things were said, things were said. And sometimes you have to deal with stuff, and that’s how we take care of our business. We’re in a fantastic place right now and really excited about this team and this season and this draft coming up and all of that.”

When asked to what degree Wilson is committed to the Seahawks long term and vice versa, Carroll made another mention of how they weren’t trading him and that they “plan on him being here for a good while.”

However, S JAMAL ADAMS has yet to sign his big-money extension.  Joel Corry ofCBSSports.com speculates as to what is holding things up:

Quickly signing safety Jamal Adams to a contract extension was presumed to be a top offseason priority for the Seahawks after the Rams eliminated them in the wild-card round of the playoffs last season. The 2021 NFL Draft wasn’t going to be as much of a focal point of the early part of the offseason as in previous years; Seattle only had selections in the second, fourth and sixth rounds because of multiple trades. Seattle’s 2021 and 2022 first-round picks, a 2021 third-round pick and safety Bradley McDougald were dealt to the Jets last July to acquire Adams and a 2022 fourth-round pick.

Nonetheless, it’s been a busy offseason for the Seahawks. Other core players heading into a contract year have all signed long-term deals. Most notably, wide receiver Tyler Lockett received a four-year, $69.2 million extension in early April. The deal has $37 million in guarantees, of which $21 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Pro Bowl punter Michael Dickson just signed a four-year, $14,699,059 extension with $8.5 million in guarantees.

General manager John Schneider reiterated in late April on the day before the draft that Adams was in Seattle’s long-term plans. He characterized the draft as a celebration of Adams since this year’s first-round pick was part of the draft compensation used to obtain him. Adams is scheduled to play the 2021 season under his $9.86 million fifth-year option.

The two most plausible explanations for the delay in signing Adams to a long-term deal are his contract demands and issues with Seattle’s preferred contract structure.

Jamal Adams’ contract demands

There were reports of Adams having ambitious financial expectations prior to the Jets trading him. According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, a source told him last offseason that Adams wanted to be one of the NFL’s highest-paid defensive players. Around the same time, Rich Cimini, who covers the Jets for ESPN, reported that Adams wanted to be the highest-paid player on the team. That distinction was then held by inside linebacker C.J. Mosley, who signed a five-year contract averaging $17 million per year in 2019 as an unrestricted free agent.

The 2020 season probably didn’t do anything to keep Adams from thinking along these lines even though he struggled at times in pass coverage. In 12 games, Adams set a single-season record for sacks by a defensive back with 9.5 — which was tied for the 11th-most in the NFL — and was selected to his third straight Pro Bowl.

Adams doesn’t view himself as just a safety. He has used the words “playmaker” or “defensive weapon” instead to describe himself. He certainly has a point based on where he lined up on the field defensively for the Seahawks. Out of Adams’ 784 defensive snaps, 94 were on the defensive line, 351 were in the box, 173 were as a slot cornerback, 17 were as a wide corner and 149 were at free safety, according to Pro Football Focus. By more traditional position groupings, the breakdown was 94 on the defensive line coming off the edge, 237 at linebacker, 263 at safety and 190 at cornerback.

Adams doesn’t want to be classified as a safety for good reason. Justin Simmons is the NFL’s highest-paid safety at $15.25 million per year. After being designated as a franchise player by the Broncos for a second straight year, he signed a four-year, $61 million contract with $35 million in guarantees where $32.1 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

There are 10 defensive players with contracts averaging $20 million per year or more. Nine are either edge rushers or interior defensive linemen who have demonstrated an ability to consistently pressure quarterbacks.

Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the only defensive back among the ten. He signed a five-year, $100 million extension worth up to $105 million through salary escalators right before the 2020 regular season started. Ramsey established new cornerback records of $71.203 million of overall guarantees and $43.703 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Adams becoming Seattle’s highest-paid defensive player is likely going to be a difficult proposition. There’s probably reluctance in paying anybody on the defense more than middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. The future Hall of Famer signed a three-year, $54 million extension averaging $18 million per year at the start of training camp in 2019. Wagner’s contract contains $40.25 million of guarantees where $24.5 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Unfortunately for Adams, NFL player salaries are mostly constrained by position. Adams easily being the NFL’s best pass-rushing defensive back probably isn’t enough to convince the Seahawks he shouldn’t be paid like a safety.

Any leverage Adams may have to be treated differently comes from his acquisition cost. The Seahawks didn’t give multiple draft picks intending for him to be a short-term rental. Budda Baker, who is considered the Swiss Army knife of the Cardinals defense because of his versatility, couldn’t defy positional pay constraints when he became the league’s highest-paid safety last September at $14.75 million per year.

It’s also something Wagner couldn’t do. When he signed his extension in 2019, he was legitimately in the league’s best defensive player discussion. Wagner and Rams interior defensive lineman Aaron Donald were the only players to be selected-first team All-Pro by the Associated Press in each of the previous three seasons (2016 through 2018). Both have since extended the streak to five seasons. At the time, the average yearly salary of the five highest-paid defensive players was just under $21.425 million. Wagner’s $18 million-per-year deal represented a 5.88% increase over Mosley’s deal.

The safety market hasn’t taken a dramatic jump since 2019 free agency when a player sets the new high mark. Eddie Jackson (Bears) getting 3.58% more than Kevin Byard (Titans) in January 2020 is the biggest incremental increase in average yearly salary.

A similar increase over Simmons would put Adams in the $15.75 million-per-year neighborhood. Adams getting the Seahawks to give him an increase comparable to Wagner’s would put him close to $16.25 million per year.

It might be more constructive for Adams to focus on closing the gap between cornerback and safety pay. Since the end of the 2019 regular season, the top of the cornerback market has increased nearly 33% while safeties have gone up just under 9%. Approaching the midpoint of Simmons and Ramsey’s deals would mean an average yearly salary in the $17.625 million range, which is below Wagner, but would be a 14.75% increase for the top of the safety market. Regardless, Adams is probably going to need to adjust his salary expectations in order to get a deal done.

Seattle’s preferred contract structure

Contract structure may be just as big of a sticking point as compensation for Adams. Most of the NFL’s bigger player contracts have at least the first two years fully guaranteed at signing.

A small group of teams, such as the Bengals, Packers, Steelers and Vikings, typically don’t adhere to this practice. The Packers consistently make an exception with quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ contracts. The Vikings also deviated from their contract conventions during 2018 free agency to sign quarterback Kirk Cousins to the NFL’s first lucrative fully guaranteed veteran contract.

Seattle prefers lucrative veteran contracts to be structured where the guaranteed money consists of base salary guarantees and a signing bonus. Base salary guarantees after the first contract year are for injury only initially at signing, but typically become fully guaranteed either on the fifth day of the waiver period in each specific year or five days after the start of the waiver period. The waiver period always begins the day after the Super Bowl.

On occasion as in Lockett’s case, Seattle will structure a contract with an option bonus in the second year to pick up the final year of the deal. The second-year base salary, which becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the waiver period, will be inflated to ensure the option is exercised and the payment is made. This base salary will be reduced by the amount of option bonus, which is prorated on the salary cap just like signing bonus, when the option year is picked up.

The second contract year was fully guaranteed at signing in several deals negotiated prior to 2013. The Seahawks moved away from this concept with wide receiver Percy Harvin’s contract in 2013.

Quarterback Russell Wilson’s current contract signed in 2019 has Seattle’s preferred structure. It would be surprising for the Seahawks to do something structurally with Adams that wasn’t done for Wilson, Wagner or Lockett in their most recent extensions. The Seahawks made a big accommodation for Wilson in giving him a then-NFL record $65 million signing bonus. Lockett has the next biggest Seahawks signing bonus at $19 million.

The Seahawks should gain salary cap space from a new Adams deal. The largest signing bonus for a safety in recent years has been the $20 million Earl Thomas received in 2019 when he joined the Ravens. Setting a new safety record with a $25 million signing bonus for Adams while lowering his base salary from $9.86 million to $1.06 million would create $3.8 million of cap room provided the length of the extension is at least four years.

Teams try to avoid deviating from well established contract practices or precedents. My experience as an agent was that getting a team to reverse a contract trend or a policy regarding contracts was extremely difficult. Teams routinely cited their concern about setting a new precedent that others would attempt to use against them in future negotiations. It always seemed a little disingenuous because teams should be able to distinguish the circumstances of different negotiations.

Final thoughts

Adams will need to decide just how willing he is to push the envelope if an agreement can’t be reached by the start of training camp in late July. Seattle’s recent history in contract disputes suggests that a holdout isn’t the best tactic to get a new deal.

Safety Kam Chancellor held out 54 days in 2015 before returning to the Seahawks after the second regular season without any changes to his contract. Thomas missed all of training camp and the preseason in a 2018 holdout he ended four days before the regular-season opener. Just like Chancellor, Thomas’ holdout didn’t result in him getting a new deal. He played out his contract and left Seattle in 2019 as an unrestricted free agent.

Some teams have a philosophy that they won’t engage in substantive discussions about a new contract while the player is holding out. The Raiders didn’t extend offensive tackle Donald Penn’s contract in 2017 until he returned to the fold shortly after the second preseason game.

Things would get really interesting should Adams play under his fifth-year option. He would seem to be destined for a franchise tag in 2022. Adams would surely file a grievance to be classified as a linebacker instead of a safety. The linebacker franchise tag is $4.197 million more than the safety figure this year.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

We can no longer call Coach Andy Reid “universally beloved.”

This is how it started from Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Le’Veon Bell apparently did not enjoy his brief tenure with the Chiefs.

Bell, who signed with the Chiefs in Week Six last year, played sparingly for them during the regular season and didn’t play at all in the Super Bowl, wrote in an Instagram comment that he will never play for Chiefs head coach Andy Reid again.

“I’ll never play for Andy Reid again,” Bell wrote. “I’d retire first.”

Bell’s comments came on, of all things, an Instagram post about someone spending $700 at McDonald’s. Bell posted a comment about the post, and then several people who thought it was interesting that a well-known NFL player was posting in the comments using his verified Instagram account started asking him questions.

It’s unclear what Bell has against Reid, but Bell does claim he will keep playing in the NFL. At this point, it may be tough for Bell to find any coach who would want him. Reid surely wouldn’t.

And this follow-up:

Free agent running back Le’Veon Bell got plenty of attention, much of it negative, for saying he would never play for Andy Reid again. Now Bell is attempting to clarify that comment, although he hasn’t cleared much of anything up.

In a series of tweets on Sunday, a day after he posted his Instagram comment about never playing for Reid again, Bell said he stands by what he said about Reid but has nothing against Kansas City and probably wouldn’t make his beef with Reid public if he had it to do over again.

“I said what I said & I don’t regret at all what I said,” Bell wrote. “For those who have a PERSONAL PROBLEM with me because of what I SAID, that’s fine. you have your right! just understand I ALSO have MY RIGHT for how I feel about MY PERSONAL problem with dude because of what HE SAID to me.”

Bell did not explain what Reid said to him that Bell found objectionable, but he did say that other than Reid, he enjoyed his brief tenure with the Chiefs.

“Never did I say I didn’t enjoy my time in KC, because I loved my time there, and was probably the closest locker room full of players I ever been around,” Bell wrote. “I enjoyed my teammates, the city, food, the fans, just about everything in KC.”

Bell, who made his initial statement about Reid in the comments on an Instagram post, wishes he hadn’t done that.

“I’m not about to get all into depth on why I feel the way I do, but I have my right to feel the way I feel,” Bell wrote. “The ONLY thing I would change is commenting how i really felt on social media. I’ll admit that’s somethin I could’ve and should’ve kept to myself & I apologize about that and that only. but I don’t regret what I said, because that’s how I feel. so you can love me or hate me, I’m gonna be fine regardless. I’m just giving you a small version from my point of view on why I said what I said.”

S TYRANN MATHIEU has Reid’s back.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

After former NFL cornerback Charles James posted PFT’s tweet about Bell saying he would never play for Reid again, Mathieu responded to James by indicating that Bell was the kind of player who blamed others when he didn’t succeed.

“These fellas will blame everybody for their lack of success. That’s how I know I’m built different,” Mathieu tweeted.

Bell was one of the most productive running backs in the NFL during his five seasons with the Steelers, but signing him proved to be a disaster with the Jets, and he didn’t do much for the Chiefs. He clearly didn’t impress Mathieu.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

The Dolphins have rewarded LB JEROME BAKER with a nice extension. Cameron Wolfe of ESPN.com:

The Miami Dolphins have agreed to terms with linebacker Jerome Baker on a three-year contract extension worth $39 million, including $28.4 million guaranteed, his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The Dolphins later announced the extension but did not disclose financial terms.

Baker is one of the Dolphins’ defensive leaders and brings energy on and off the field. He specializes in pass coverage, and helped the Dolphins grow from the worst scoring defense (30.9 points per game allowed) in 2019 to the fifth-ranked scoring defense (21.1) in 2020.

A 2018 third-round pick, Baker was approaching the final year of his rookie deal. He was asked last week about his pending free agency and where he saw Miami in the picture. It was a foreshadowing of this deal.

“I want to play here for the rest of my career. I love it here. I love the fans. I love the organization. I love everybody here,” Baker said. “Yeah, I definitely see myself playing here for a long time.”

Baker, 24, gets his wish, as he’s now scheduled to stay in Miami for the next four seasons.

Now eyes turn to another one of the Dolphins’ 2018 draft picks and 2022 pending free agent tight end Mike Gesicki for a potential extension.

NEW ENGLAND

CB STEPHON GILMORE has yet to make it to Patriots camp.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

The Patriots are holding their mandatory minicamp this week and a big question heading into it was whether cornerback Stephon Gilmore will be in attendance.

Gilmore has not been at voluntary phases of the offseason program and Jim McBride of the Boston Globe reports that he is not there on Monday. Head coach Bill Belichick said in a Monday morning press conference that he expects to see some players who have not been at voluntary phases of the offseason program, but did not say whether Gilmore is one of them.

Belichick said that the team was “scrambling to get things going” on Monday and that some players had their travel plans impacted by bad weather, so he was “not sure exactly how all of it worked out.”

“We’ll find out who’s here and who isn’t soon enough,” Belichick said.

It’s unclear if Gilmore has plans to be there for the rest of the week. He would be subject to $93,085 in fines if he misses all three days.

That may be a price Gilmore is willing to pay as part of a push for a new contract. His minicamp plans have been a question because he’s heading into the final year of his contract with a salary of $7 million after the team moved $4.5 million of his base salary into his 2020 compensation and missing all of this week’s work would signal he wants a new deal in New England.

THIS AND THAT

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Kudos to Max Olson of The Athletic who looked back at the last 10 years if the new 12-team playoff had been in place then.  He goes season-by-season with some nice graphics here:

So now that we’ve done all that homework, let’s review that 10-year period and put together the scoreboard.

12-team CFP appearances, 2011-2020

9 – Alabama

8 – Ohio State

7 – Clemson, Oklahoma

5 – Florida State, Georgia, Oregon

4 – Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin

3 – Baylor, Boise State, Kansas State, Michigan State, TCU, UCF, Washington

2 – Auburn, Michigan, South Carolina, Texas A&M, USC

1 – Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Colorado, Houston, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State,Memphis, Miami (FL), Mississippi State, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Utah, Western Michigan

Yep, no surprises among the top four. As long as they keep dominating their respective conferences, they’re going to keep making the field on a near-annual basis.

But the 12-team playoff was conceived (or, depending on your point of view, conceded) to make the postseason a lot more exciting, giving more schools and players a true shot at competing for a national title. Getting to a New Year’s Six bowl is a great feat. Getting to say your team made the playoff? That’s going to have a much more significant effect on your rep, recruiting and fundraising. And that should help a bunch of programs in their efforts to catch up to the national elite.

Speaking of that quest, here’s how the 10 years of playoff appearances sorts by conference:

SEC: 32

Big Ten: 23

Pac-12: 17

Big 12: 17

ACC: 15

Group of 5: 13

Independents: 3

Nothing shocking about those results, either. Surprised to see the ACC in fifth place? They had Clemson or Florida State in this playoff every year but were a one-bid league in six of the 10 seasons.

You can see why this isn’t going to be a hard sell in the SEC. In this 10-year span, 11 of their 14 programs got into the Playoff at least once. If they can continue to get three to four bids each year – and sometimes more – that just means more prestige, more money, more power.

Of course, when you introduce more chaos into the process of picking a national champion, that might be to their detriment. Maybe they don’t win six national titles over this 10-year period. Or heck, maybe they win more.

But, hey, that’s the past. Now it’s time to wait impatiently for the future of the playoff to arrive.

Expanding on Olson’s research, we count 43 different schools getting at least one shot in the decade.

Western Michigan and Coastal Carolina are among them, but the following are among those that don’t make it even once – Texas, UCLA, Nebraska, Tennessee, Pitt, NC State, West Virginia.

We count 11 different SEC schools.  We count 7 from the Big Ten.  6 from the Pac-12. 6 from the Big 12.  Just four ACC schools.  And there are 9 that aren’t Power 5, including Notre Dame.

We also wondered how the four on-campus home games might shake out.  It is an interesting group of locations – some citadels of the sport, but also Boise, Orlando, Columbia (MO).  We count:

4 – South Bend (ND)

3 – Madison (WIS), Columbus (OhSt), Athens (GA), Waco (Baylor), Tuscaloosa (AL)

2 – Eugene (ORE), Ann Arbor (MICH), Gainesville (FL), Palo Alto (STAN)

1 – Boise (BSt), Iowa City (IA), Columbia (MO), Cincinnati (CIN), East Lansing (MichSt),

      Norman (OKL), Fayetteville (ARK), Starkville (MisSt), Orlando (UCF), Auburn (AUB),

      Los Angeles (USC), Fort Worth (TCU), College Station (TA&M).

That’s 23 different schools hosting the 40 games.  School’s like TCU, UCF and Mississippi State that you don’t think of as elite.

We like the spread of games.

LOSERS TO WINNERS

Conner Orr of SI.com with six teams that had losing records last year that will be playoff bound in 2021.  Six losers from this bunch?

Los Angeles Chargers                       7-9

Minnesota Vikings                             7-9

New England Patriots                        7-9

Washington Football Team               7-9

Dallas Cowboys                                6-10

New York Giants                               6-10

San Francisco 49ers                         6-10

Carolina Panthers                             5-11

Denver Broncos                                5-11

Detroit Lions                                      5-11

Cincinnati Bengals                            4-11-1

Philadelphia Eagles                          4-11-1

Atlanta Falcons                                 4-12

Houston Texans                               4-12

New York Jets                                  2-14

Jacksonville Jaguars                        1-15

We haven’t read his choices as we type this?  Does WFT, which made the playoffs last year, count?  We think the Chargers, Cowboys and Patriots are easy picks.  The 49ers on the genius of Shanahan.  But where are the other two?  We’ll go Minnesota and Cincinnati.

Okay, take it away Conner –

Acquiring the greatest player in NFL history has its benefits, as the Buccaneers found out in 2020. They went from a middling 7–9 team with a good coaching staff and solid defensive core to 11–5, playoff darling and eventual Super Bowl champion. It’s impossible to discount teams with a losing record from one year to the next, although we often fall into the trap of recency bias. That’s why we’re here, to take a look at the bottom rung of the NFL in 2020 and decide whether any teams are good enough to climb off the scrap heap.

When projecting the “worst to first” kind of candidates this year, there are some more obvious than others. Quarterbacks are returning from injuries. New coaches with sensible business plans are getting installed on rosters already primed for success. This, in addition to a second year of extended playoffs and a (hopefully) more representative NFC East, should give us parity this year, as well as a more diverse field of playoff newcomers.

1. San Francisco 49ers

2020 record: 6–10

Major offseason changes: drafted Trey Lance No. 3; signed wide receiver Mohamed Sanu.

Why they’ll make the playoffs: The 49ers are a good team that, even in their worst moments, are still capable of dissecting a sloppily game-planned opponent. We’ve seen that throughout Kyle Shanahan’s tenure, even if it has been a career thus far that has resulted in one playoff (and Super Bowl) appearance. Still, it’s hard to imagine a roster this deep, one that tore through the NFC with an upper-middle-tier quarterback just two years ago, will spiral. The loss of Robert Saleh and a platoon of Shanahan’s key assistants shouldn’t be overlooked. Offensive line coach John Benton joined the Jets with Saleh and former passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur. However, Shanahan was able to retain some talent, including former quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello and offensive line coach Chris Foerster. With Lance presumably grabbing the baton at some point this season, we’ll get an early glimpse at how the scheme can diversify itself with mobility under center. Because Shanahan is already a step ahead of the rest of the NFL, he’ll now be even further along.

2. New England Patriots

2020 record: 7–9

Major offseason changes: drafted Mac Jones No. 15; signed tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, and outside linebacker Matt Judon.

Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Patriots won seven games last year, despite some of their most significant players opting out due to COVID-19 and having Tom Brady depart in free agency. They cobbled together an offense with a still-limited Cam Newton and managed to beat some teams they shouldn’t have. Now, Bill Belichick, amid premature whisperings of his demise, has a promising young quarterback, plus a healthier Newton in the fold, along with the most aggressive free-agent class in his tenure. Some have signaled this a sign of his desperation. Others might venture that Belichick simply has a keen understanding of football economics. This was a depressed market, and while he still spent lavishly (and possibly irresponsibly) at the wide receiver position, he achieved good value elsewhere.

3. Los Angeles Chargers

2020 record: 7–9

Major offseason changes: hired head coach Brandon Staley; signed center Corey Linsley, tackle Matt Feiler and tight end Jared Cook; drafted tackle Rashawn Slater No. 13.

Why they’ll make the playoffs: When the story of this Chargers team gets written, Anthony Lynn and Pep Hamilton will largely be edited out. It’s important to point out that Justin Herbert made this job desirable because of the work Lynn was able to do with him, which included having him ready enough on seconds notice to hop into an NFL game when the presumed starter’s lung was punctured by a team medical professional. And play well at that! In a perfect world, Lynn would be running an offense with Staley running a defense, but unfortunately that’s not the way a coaching carousel works.

That said, Staley comes with an impeccable reputation on the defensive side and a history as a quarterback, making him attractive on both sides of the ball. For a time last year, Staley’s Rams were giving up the fewest second-half points in NFL history, cementing his ability to make in-game adjustments—a critical component of the head coaching gig. Staley walks into a roster stocked well by general manager Tom Telesco, with Pro Bowl–caliber talent at nearly every position. This will not be heavy lifting.

4. Dallas Cowboys

2020 record: 6–10

Major offseason changes: extended Dak Prescott, who returns from a broken ankle; hired Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator; drafted linebacker Micah Parsons No. 12; signed safeties Keanu Neal and Damontae Kazee, and outside linebacker Tarell Basham.

Why they’ll make the playoffs: Prescott was on pace to be the most efficient quarterback in the NFL last year before a devastating ankle injury sapped him of almost an entire season. It was obvious that the Mike McCarthy–Kellen Moore hybrid scheme was not enough to lift an Andy Dalton–led club into the playoffs, which only stood to magnify Prescott’s value. It was also obvious that the Cowboys were on a tear offensively before Prescott got hurt, scoring 40, 31 and 38 in their first three games before the injury occurred. This, in addition to a second year of experience (and a full offseason) for CeeDee Lamb, should ensure a competitive roster that can make up for its porous defense. The defense, simply by virtue of adding Quinn, should also be better, even if it is not dominant enough to take Dallas on a lengthy ride through the postseason.

5. Denver Broncos

2020 record: 5–11

Major offseason changes: signed cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller; traded for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater; drafted cornerback Patrick Surtain II No. 9.

Why they’ll make the playoffs: I would put a Vic Fangio defense this loaded against any offense in the NFL, even if the Broncos are middling at best on offense. Stylistically, they’ll be a classic defensive-minded coach’s team, which requires ball control on offense and a stout offensive line. The Broncos added Javonte Williams in the second round, pairing him with Melvin Gordon at running back. They also drafted D-III star and wilderness afficionado Quinn Meinerz in the third round. Often we’ll credit teams with a stellar draft based on how well they’ve filled perceived needs, and, while it’s a simplistic grading rubric, the Broncos have managed to ace it thus far. It would not be surprising to see Bridgewater move to the front of the pack quickly, as he carries the most promise for offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur in fulfilling something similar to what he had with Case Keenum in Minnesota, for a coach with similar expectations.

6. New York Giants

2020 record: 6–10

Major offseason changes: signed wide receivers Kenny Golladay, John Ross and Dante Pettis; signed cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and defensive tackle Danny Shelton; drafted wide receiver Kadarius Toney No. 19.

Why they’ll make the playoffs: The Giants are well coached and have a rising star defensive coordinator in Patrick Graham who, while he’s there, could potentially have a top-seven or -eight defense this year if his best players stay healthy. Saquon Barkley is back, yes, though our bullishness on the Giants stems mostly from a surge in general optimism around Daniel Jones. While it is difficult to predict a star rise based on his film in particular, some around the league are seeing Jones as a diamond in the rough who will benefit from stability at the coordinator position and a bolstered weapon set. Will Jones be Offensive Player of the Year good? Probably not. Could he be Garoppolo-plus in 2021? Absolutely.

We don’t see, if you think WFT is pretty good, that there would be enough wins to go around to get both the Giants or the Cowboys into the playoffs.  And Denver without QB AARON RODGERS?

We like the chances for a JOE BURROW breakout more than a DANIEL JONES breakout.