| NFC NORTH |
| GREEN BAYEDGE MICAH PARSONS is reportedly not going to be available to earn his massive contract until midseason at the earliest. Jordan Sigler of YahooSports.com: The timeline appears to be changing for star pass-rusher Micah Parsons’ return to the Green Bay Packers this season. There was some hope Parsons could return near mid-October. He’s expected to start the year on the PUP list before being eligible to return to the 53-man roster in Week 5. Parsons said the Packers have a “nine-month rule” to recover from an ACL injury, and September 29 would be nine months since the initial injury. But even a mid-October date might have been too optimistic for Parsons. Per Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom, Parsons is now expected to miss half of the regular season, if not more. “Green Bay star pass rusher Micah Parsons is going to miss upwards of half the season returning from surgery,” La Canfora wrote. After investing two first-round picks in Parsons last season, the Packers absolutely need their best player on the field to compete for the playoffs. At the same time Green Bay cannot risk long-term injury for the star pass-rusher. In June, Parsons said it makes no sense to come back early from an ACL injury. “I think the goal has always just been not right now, but longevity with my career here,” Parsons said,” via NFL media. “I think they want that approach. We have a pretty strong nine-month rule. “It’s just all about, just through the research and the data, there’s no good outcomes with players coming back early from [an] ACL. Especially if you had other things that had to get fixed up, so it’s just all about completing the rehab to the best of our ability and then seeing where we’re at from there.” Parsons goal is to finish the season when he returns and not suffer a “relapse” before the Packers make a push in the playoffs. But Green Bay will have to make the postseason without Parsons playing a significant portion of the season. His absence will definitely affect defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s ability to generate a pass rush, and could add a high number to the loss total before Week 9 (when the Packers go on the road to play the New England Patriots), which would be the halfway mark of the regular season. |
| NFC EAST |
| WASHINGTONJohn Keim of ESPN.com with five takeaways from Commanders offseason drills: In the midst of multiple teams around the league canceling minicamp or reducing the number of days, Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn was asked Tuesday if he would do the same. He quickly shot it down. “Nope, we’ll be here,” he said. Coming off a 5-12 season, nothing less should have been expected. Besides, they had a barbecue scheduled for the players, coaches and their families to celebrate the end of the offseason after the final day. When the final whistle blew Thursday, signaling the end of minicamp, players whooped and hollered, raising their helmets as they gathered together. From the end of the season until now, Washington has had reasons to feel good: It has strengthened key areas; its quarterback is healthy, and its top receiver feels good. With minicamp over, here are five takeaways from the Commanders’ offseason practices. 1. The energy was different this springQuinn emphasized energy entering voluntary OTA sessions and mandatory minicamps. At one point, he compared a 2024 OTA session to one from the same day in 2025. He noticed something was off. He even showed the video to players who were around for both years. Quinn even stopped one OTA practice to restart a session because, he said, the rookies’ energy wasn’t high enough. “Last year I felt [we] just weren’t as connected,” Quinn said. “I was looking at desperation and being hungry.” This offseason, Washington added 31 new players and two new coordinators. But safety Jeremy Reaves said there’s another reason the energy was different. “Yeah, we won five games last year,” Reaves said. “That should be all the motivation you need to be urgent. We weren’t good. If that doesn’t add enough pep in your step, you’re in the wrong field.” 2. More defensive speedThe defense was a focus this offseason after having one of the NFL’s worst units in 2025. The Commanders changed coordinators, firing Joe Whitt and hiring Daronte Jones, and changed schemes, switching to a 3-4. But adding speed was a primary goal. On some plays this spring, rookie linebacker Sonny Styles — who ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds — closed fast on pass catchers in front of him, leading to what would have been no yards after the catch. He did the same in the flat on other plays. Another time, veteran outside linebacker Odafe Oweh — using his 4.36-second combine 40 time — was able to prevent quarterback Jayden Daniels from turning the corner on a designed run. Linebacker Leo Chenal is another one of the speedy additions. The hope with all this quickness is to help Jones be creative and aggressive with his defensive calls. “Younger, faster, more explosive,” linebacker Frankie Luvu said of the defense. “We’re just hunting man. … Very aggressive, very downhill. We’re disruptive.” 3. Questions remain at running backThe Commanders haven’t had a No. 1 running back in a while and are likely to enter the season with a running back by committee situation. The Commanders signed Rachaad White and Jerome Ford in the offseason and drafted Penn State’s all-time leading rusher, Kaytron Allen, in the sixth round. They also have holdovers Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols and are intrigued by undrafted rookie Robert Henry Jr. “We all do a lot of things well, we’ve all got different styles,” White said. Croskey-Merritt, who led the team with 815 yards last season, was noticeably bigger in the spring. Quinn said they told him he needed to add bulk. They need him to be a bigger factor in the pass game. Washington has not had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2021 and has had only two in the past 11 seasons. Also, Daniels’ ability to run, whether on designed runs or scrambles, will factor into their rushing success. His 891 yards rushing in 2024 were the fourth-highest total by any Washington player since 2015. Quinn said the run game might not have one main player but will instead utilize individuals’ strengths in different situations. 4. Daniels looks like Daniels againDaniels and the offense rarely looked in sync during the spring and summer of 2025. A big part of that stemmed from an offseason holdout by McLaurin, who was Daniels’ No. 1 target the previous season. McLaurin appears happy this spring. And Daniels, who is coming off an injury-filled season that limited him to four full games and parts of three others, has been more on target than last year. But Quinn said they will need a lot more reps for Daniels to bring the offense “to life.” For now, he listens to what Daniels says as much as what he does. They’ve had the quarterbacks wear GoPro cameras on their helmets. The main benefit of which — according to multiple coaches and players, including quarterback Marcus Mariota — is it allows the coaches to hear what the quarterback says in the huddle and how he handles checks at the line of scrimmage. Quinn said he’s liked what he’s heard from Daniels as they break the huddle, such as reminding receivers about their splits or telling another “I’m coming to you.” Daniels is providing information before the snap. “The better you know [the offense], the more you’re able to share,” Quinn said. “The fact he can call out who should be where, that’s a big deal. I’m excited to see him grow more into it.” McLaurin said in the past the quarterbacks and receivers would meet each Friday during the season. He said Daniels and Mariota have been running meetings at 8 a.m. in the spring. Daniels watches film with coordinator David Blough and has notes for the receivers on various plays. Seeing a healthy Daniels and a happy McLaurin in season would do wonders for Washington. “We’ve connected on a new offense just like that,” McLaurin said. “I know he has a feel for how I run certain routes; I have a feel for how he’s going to throw it.” 5. There are still questions at receiverThe Commanders struggled at receiver last season, largely because of McLaurin’s holdout and then injuries to him and Noah Brown. Their depth was tested — and it failed. Deebo Samuel led the team with 72 receptions and McLaurin caught 38 in 10 games. But eight other receivers combined to catch 61 passes, none more than 16. They believe they have improved their depth by adding veterans Van Jefferson and Dyami Brown, re-signing Treylon Burks and drafting Antonio Williams. But they need someone to emerge as a consistent No. 2 receiver opposite McLaurin. It wasn’t evident this spring who it might be. But as with running back, it could be a group assignment unless they add a veteran receiver such as Stefon Diggs or Brandon Aiyuk. Otherwise, a lot hinges on the development of Williams and young receivers Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane. The tight ends are also expected to be more involved in the pass game — and not only newcomer Chig Okonkwo. Over the past two years, the tight ends, aside from Zach Ertz, wondered how they fit in former OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. But they all were more involved this spring, which included a practice that featured five tight ends catching scoring passes. Washington’s screen game could be more diverse as well. Last season, the Commanders ranked second in receiver screens but finished 15th in tight end screens with only two (they were 19th in running back screens). By adding White and Okonkwo, those numbers should change and add to a more diverse attack. And if that happens, it could mitigate what the unit doesn’t (yet) have at receiver. |
| NFC WEST |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSRookie QB TYLER SIMPSON, who likes to hear himself talk, has nothing but praise for his interactions with incumbent Hall of Famer-in-waiting MATTHEW STAFFORD. Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times: Ty Simpson listens to himself in the evening before he falls asleep. And also when he gets up in the morning and heads to work at the Rams’ practice facility. The rookie quarterback hears his own voice on audio recordings as he recites the team’s play calls. “I want to make sure it’s the last thing I think about when I go to bed,” he said recently, “and the first thing that I wake up to.” The Rams ended their offseason program last week. But Simpson, a Tennessee native, said he would remain in Southern California and continue to study in preparation for training camp at Loyola Marymount in late July. Simpson began the practice of recording himself at Alabama, where he was the starter in the last of his four seasons with the Crimson Tide. Now he is the heir apparent to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, the reigning NFL most valuable player. The Rams surprised many when they used the 13th pick in the draft to select Simpson, who started only 15 games. But Simpson is doing everything he can to fit into a position group that includes Stafford, 38, fourth-year signal-caller Stetson Bennett and undrafted free agent Matthew Caldwell. “Feel like I’m a freshman again — drinking from a fire hydrant,” he said, adding that he knows and is comfortable with high expectations. “The quarterback runs the show here, just how I like it.” Stafford, entering his 18th season, has said that Simpson has not been shy about asking questions. “I hope I’m not annoying him,” Simpson said, “but I really appreciate the big brother kind of role he’s playing in my development.” Stafford is “the MVP for a reason,” Simpson said. “Everything he does, he’s so just aware of everything, aware of how everything works. … I really appreciate him and Stetson taking me in and answering all the questions I have.” Bennett got limited reps during the offseason program. But his opportunities are expected to increase during training camp as the Rams manage Stafford’s workload. When asked about Bennett, coach Sean McVay and offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase seemingly have gone out of their way to speak generally about rookies. “They’re way behind in terms of just the overall teaching progression but they’re learning,” McVay said. “Ty, like the rest of the rookies, are doing a really nice job.” Scheelhaase, who went through several head coach interviews during the offseason, is in his first season as the Rams’ coordinator. “I’ve been encouraged with all of our rookies, including Ty,” Scheelhaase said. “First things first, you want to see, do they come in? Are they coachable? Are they willing to work? And you’ve seen that from Ty from Day 1.” Simpson said that, so far, the jump from college to the NFL has not been daunting. Quarterback coach Dave Ragone and teammates have helped ease the transition. “The biggest thing is just how detail-oriented everybody is,” Simpson said, adding, “It’s really, really cool because, coming from Alabama in the SEC, that’s how pro-ready I felt.” With Stafford under contract through the 2027 season, Simpson might not play for a few years. But if Stafford were to suffer an injury, his time could come sooner. Simpson is expected to play extensively during preseason games later this summer. To make sure he’s prepared, Simpson recites and listens to his play calls. “So when I get in the game and hear a play call, I can just imagine it and see it,” he said. “That’s a big thing, just knowing the terminology and being detail-oriented just like Matthew and Stetson.” |
| SAN FRANCISCOMichael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com thinks the 49ers would still trade QB MAC JONES – if 2025 draft pick KURTIS ROURKE (Fernando Mendoza’s predecessor at Indiana) looks good. Mac Jones played well enough in the eight games he started for the 49ers last season that he would have had a chance to start for another team if he had been a free agent this year. But Jones is heading into the second year of his two-year contract, which means he remains Brock Purdy’s backup. Unless the 49ers trade him, which might still be possible. 49ers General Manager John Lynch indicated at the start of the offseason that Jones wouldn’t be traded unless the 49ers got a strong offer, and when the draft came and went without a trade, it was widely assumed that Jones wasn’t going anywhere. Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle reports however, that the 49ers likely would trade Jones if they see enough development from 2025 seventh-round draft pick Kurtis Rourke. Jones’ base salary of $1.4 million this season would make him very attractive to any team that finds itself in need of a quarterback and doesn’t have much salary cap space. A trade of Jones likely wouldn’t happen until some other team loses its starting quarterback to an injury. But that happens in the NFL every year, and when it happens this year, the 49ers may be ready to answer that team’s call. Like starting QB BROCK PURDY, Rourke is a 7th round pick. He’s from Kitchener, Ontario and also played at Ohio U. (starting three years for the Bobcats before flourishing under Curt Cignatti for the first Indiana Cinderella team in 2024). |
| AFC SOUTH |
| TENNESSEEFor Father’s Day, this on how Robert Saleh is honoring his dad – and is himself a father of eight. Interestingly, Robert, Jr. is child number 8. Robert Saleh almost veered away from football when he was first introduced to the game at the age of 7. He was afraid because he was, as he described, “a little soft” when he first started. The turning point for the Tennessee Titans’ newest head coach came during an “Oklahoma drill” when he was 9 in Dearborn, Michigan. The controversial drill puts players in a one-on-one matchup designed to test a player’s toughness and blocking/tackling techniques. Robert used to say his stomach hurt when it was time to do that drill, which the NFL asked teams to stop conducting in 2019 to reduce concussions, so he didn’t have to participate. But this time was different — as the head coach of the Pop Warner team that was running the drill just happened to be his father, Sam. So Robert refused to back down. “My dad was sitting there with a ball in his hands, getting ready to hike it,” Robert told ESPN. “And that was the moment I was like, ‘I am not turning this down.’ I didn’t want to look like a wimp in front of him.” The Salehs are a close-knit family of Lebanese descent that takes pride in their heritage. “My father was probably the first from the Arab American community in Dearborn to really start playing football and make a mark,” Robert’s older brother David told ESPN. “A lot of people grew up wanting to be like him on the football field. So with that, you always want to be like your dad.” Robert’s football journey is one that has traversed firings and promotions, losses and Super Bowls. It culminated recently when Sam — along with Robert’s wife, Sanaa, and their eight children — had front-row seats on Jan. 19 as Robert was named head coach of the Titans. “My dad always talked about how he wished he had stayed in coaching,” Robert said. Still, Sam didn’t immediately embrace Robert’s dream to become a coach. Robert had a banking job, and Sam knew how hard it would be to climb the coaching ladder. But as he listened to his son articulate his vision, Sam could see the passion wasn’t going to be denied. “I’m looking at him, and he was speaking with such conviction,” Sam said. “I told him it’s not what you think it is.” SAM WAS A standout middle linebacker at Fordson High School. He went on to play at Eastern Michigan before he earned a tryout with the Chicago Bears. A severe knee injury during his first training camp ended his professional career, and he would later go into construction. Sam wanted to get into coaching, but he had a bigger calling to provide for his wife and their son, David, at the time. Still, his deep love for football influenced Robert, now 47. David, 50, never got to play for their father, who was focused on making sure his family was financially secure. “My dad was instrumental for Robert,” David said. “He was at my games and whatnot, but he was never one of my coaches because he was pounding pavement [looking for a job], grinding it out and trying to make a great life for us. But with Robert, he was able to coach him and be more involved.” Robert would become a four-year starter and all-conference selection at Northern Michigan. but playing in the NFL wasn’t in Robert’s future. So he landed a job with Comerica Bank, where he was making $800 per week evaluating loan applications after graduating in 2000. He was in a position to eventually earn a six-figure salary, but something was missing. However, everything changed for the Salehs on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, when two planes struck the World Trade Center in New York. David had started working for Morgan Stanley two days prior. His office was on the 61st floor of the south tower, where he was training to be a financial adviser. The Saleh family was left to watch the tragedy unfold on television with the rest of the world. With David’s status unknown, they feared the worst, but he made it out — immediately fleeing after seeing the first plane strike the north tower. David called his family to let them know he was alive after arriving at his hotel in Times Square. That moment of uncertainty, not knowing if his brother survived, inspired Robert to pursue his passion. It made him realize that tomorrow isn’t promised. “It was at that moment I realized I cannot sit another year working a 9-to-5 without having a purpose other than money,” Robert said. SAM TRIED TO talk his son out of coaching — knowing Robert would have to start from the bottom. He remembered how the graduate assistants were “gopher guys” when he was at Eastern Michigan. Sam said they had to make coffee runs, work a printer and perform other tedious tasks. Sam eventually came around, though. He knew Robert was young and single, so if turning to football proved to be a mistake, he could recover. So at 23, Robert took the leap of faith and left the banking industry. He told himself that if coaching didn’t work out by the time he was 30, he’d have to find another way to make a living. Robert began his coaching career making $600 a month as an offensive assistant working with the tight ends at Michigan State in 2002. He switched to a defensive assistant in 2003 and worked with the defensive line before moving on to become a graduate assistant at Central Michigan in 2004. Robert was a defensive assistant (linebackers) in his final collegiate coaching season at Georgia in 2005, where he was making $900 per month. Money was tight, but he always had his parents to support him while he worked through the coaching ranks, especially his mother, Fatin. “They were a huge help,” Robert said. “Anytime I came back home, I always found a couple hundred bucks left in my shoe from my mom.” While Sam helped inspire Robert to get into coaching, Robert states that his wife is the lifeline that helped sustain it. Moving from city to city as opportunities arise is challenging. It’s an even more daunting task with their eight children — Adam (15), Zane (13), Sammy (12), Mila (10), Michael (9), Ella (7), Jacob (5) and Robert Jr. (1). “I got an unbelievable wife,” Robert said. “She’s already got a place in heaven. Most beautiful heart, most beautiful person. She makes it easy. We’re already in a stressful environment, and she makes sure when we get home, it’s stress-free.” Robert manages to take his children on a rotation to sneak in nine holes so they can hang out while he teaches them golf. It’s Robert’s way of following the example Sam set when he taught his kids chess at a young age. WHEN SALEH WAS a defensive quality control coach for the Seattle Seahawks in 2011, he met Gus Bradley — who was the defensive coordinator before becoming the head coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014. Bradley brought Saleh to Jacksonville with him to be the linebackers coach. One thing Bradley always emphasized was balancing family life with football. Part of that balance has been allowing his kids, along with those of the coaches, to come to practice during training camp. Bradley, now the defensive coordinator for Saleh in Tennessee, smiled as he described how cool it was for him to see Saleh’s oldest getting the chance to catch passes from Cam Ward before practice. “With the number of kids he’s had, you have to be efficient,” Bradley said. “He does a great job balancing, far better than a lot of people I know. But it’s never at the expense of one or the other. He’s always been heavy deep into football and a great father.” |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW YORK JETSA dustup Sunday at QB GENO SMITH’s home in Davie, Florida has caught the attention of local police. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Police reportedly have investigation an assault allegation against Jets quarterback Geno Smith. The incident emerged over the weekend, with a woman named “Kristen” claiming that Smith “beat my ass” in a video posted on social media. The 85-second clip includes multiple images of Smith. At the end, he’s speaking to police officers. TMZ says the situation is currently under review. Andy Slater of Fox Sports South Florida reports that the case has already been closed. Via the California Post, a spokesperson for the Davie, Florida police department said officers arrived at Smith’s residence at 4:40 p.m. ET on Sunday. The spokesperson said no one was taken into custody at the scene. The Jets declined comment to the Post. Smith has not yet addressed the matter. Smith was a second-round pick of the Jets in 2013. He played for the Jets through 2015. After stints with the Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, and Raiders, the Jets brought Smith back earlier this year in trade with Las Vegas. Smith, who has 98 regular-season starts in 12 NFL seasons, is expected to be the team’s starting quarterback in 2026. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| BRENDAN SORSBYIs QB BRENDAN SORSBY worth taking a gamble on? Ben Solak of ESPN.comanalyzes the odds he will succeed: For the first time since 2019, the NFL supplemental draft is interesting! Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby has announced his intention to enter the supplemental draft, which will be held sometime in July once the league approves his application. The supplemental draft allows all 32 teams to bid blindly against one another for the rights to a player. Any team wishing to add Sorsby must submit a bid for the round in which it would be willing to draft him. The team that submits the most valuable bid wins the rights to the player, but its pick in that specific round is forfeited in the upcoming 2027 NFL draft. As such, NFL teams are now doing all of their due diligence on Sorsby. A much-larger-than-normal piece of that diligence will consider his serious sports gambling transgressions. But it’s still the job of scouts and coaches to watch the tape and grade his current play and NFL potential. League evaluators were excited to see Sorsby play another season at Texas Tech; even if he had declared for the 2026 draft, before the sports gambling was exposed, he was considered a high-ceiling prospect worthy of a solid pick. I dove into the film to determine just how good Sorsby is right now and what sort of pick he’s worth based on his on-field ability. I also ranked my top five team fits for him based on his skill set and each offense’s needs and scheme. To be clear, this is a look at Sorsby’s football talent alone; it is not at all a reflection of the tough calculus many teams will do when the supplemental draft officially begins. Let’s begin with what he does well. What does Sorsby do well?Sorsby has a live arm. Cincinnati’s offense featured a deep menu of run-pass options — 14.5% of Sorsby’s attempts were charted as RPOs, 28th in the country — and Sorsby cashed many of those throws by adjusting his arm angle without losing zip or accuracy. It’s impressive how quickly he can get into his throwing motion, and the ball pops off his hand without much effort. Cincinnati was able to attack vertically off RPO action because of his release speed and velocity. While much of Sorsby’s production came on one-read decisions, he showed poise when asked to get to secondary options post-snap. Cincinnati offensive coordinator Brad Glenn cooked up just about every expression of vertical routes — slot fades, seams and wheels, switch verts, etc. — to give Sorsby the opportunity to throw shots in rhythm. Sorsby’s NFL offensive coordinator must be willing to do the same, and he would perform best on a team with speed at receiver. Sorsby wants to push the ball, but he isn’t overly bold with holding it in the pocket. Telemetry Sports charted Sorsby with zero throwaways, zero intentional groundings and only seven sacks on 114 pressures last season. Some of that is the system, but the film backs it up: Sorsby has a good nose for when pressure’s brewing and understands the value of getting the ball out early or escaping the pocket fast. His overall sack rate of 1.8% was better than all but two quarterbacks in the FBS in 2025. Listed as 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, Sorsby has some serious scoot at his size. I would argue that on many of his scrambles, he’s out of the door a little early. Here against Nebraska, he has the quick out open against a linebacker with bad leverage. But he senses the seas parting upfield — again, he plays with great natural feel — and tucks without a second thought. When he’s gone, he’s gone. Sorsby has seriously impactful acceleration for a quarterback. In the open field, he eats up grass and consistently makes safeties miss with head fakes and sharp cuts. Sorsby hit 19.9 mph on a 41-yard scramble against TCU, per Telemetry Sports. The only quarterbacks to clear 20 mph in the NFL last season were Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields and Drake Maye (per NFL Next Gen Stats). Because Sorsby is a legit threat as a ball carrier with the bulk to take on contact, the Bearcats used him in the designed running game. He averaged 5.8 yards per rush on the season (third among all quarterbacks) and had eight scores and 20 first downs on only 57 designed rushes. His athleticism warrants called runs in the NFL — perhaps not at a Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen rate, but on third downs and in the red zone for sure. Where does Sorsby still need to work?Because Sorsby is such a creative and natural thrower, he is unnecessarily flippant with his mechanics. He’ll throw flat-footed even when he has plenty of room to step into his delivery, and he’ll drop his arm slot into sidearm throws when it is not needed. He often makes throws more difficult than they need to be. The other major concern with haphazard delivery is haphazard accuracy. While Sorsby isn’t remarkably less accurate on his off-platform, wonky arm throws than he is on his crisp deliveries, he is generally inaccurate. He has not committed himself to one throwing motion with the robotic consistency that accurate NFL quarterbacks have, and as such, he produces a worrying grab bag of ball locations. ESPN charted Sorsby with an off-target rate of 13.8% last season, 112th out of 133 qualifying quarterbacks. Only 75.3% of his passes were even catchable. Because Sorsby is so averse to taking sacks, and because the offensive menu of the Bearcats was fairly predictable, it was not hard for smart defenses to bait him into poor decisions. Against man blitzes, Sorsby loves to hang a deep floater out for his speedy receiver to track in space. But these bold attacks often become needless prayer balls. His mistakes are easy to chalk up to the carelessness of youth. But Sorsby is a three-year starter who too often plays on autopilot. I admire his ability to generally avoid big negatives; he takes few sacks, and the two interceptions shown here were of his five total this past season. Still, he does not seem ready for an NFL-caliber offense facing NFL-caliber defenses. He is not accustomed to a deep playbook and gets got by post-snap coverage rotations too easily. If forced to play early, his rate of negative plays would shoot up dramatically. It’s clear why another year of college ball would have benefited him. Now, the hope is he gets another year to sit. So … is Sorsby an NFL starter?He absolutely has the tools to be one. Watching Sorsby reminds me a ton of watching Malik Willis’ (very limited) starting film over the past two years with Green Bay. Willis is a little shorter and stockier, but both QBs are explosive when they decide to tuck the ball and can rip off chunk gains as scramblers or designed runners. Both also rely heavily on their first read opening up and will send a deep shot if given a fair look at it. But both can go through their progressions. It might be a tad slower than ideal, but they make up for that lethargy with good ball velocity. And while neither is particularly accurate, they are accurate enough. Willis, of course, was a third-round pick as a developmental player. He didn’t find much purchase in Tennessee. But under Matt LaFleur in Green Bay, he was used as a dangerous wrinkle in the designed running game and was consistently given open downfield receivers with simple post-snap reads. On that play alone, he earned an unimpeded audition to be the full-time starter in Miami. I can see a similar arc for Sorsby, especially given the odd constraints of the supplemental draft. Sorsby will join his NFL team months later than the average rookie, and most rookies aren’t up to speed by Week 1 anyway. Given how some quarterbacks rooms (Cardinals, Browns) are already loaded with potential starting options, the number of teams with roster room for Sorsby is limited — he’ll be fighting for a QB2 job, not a QB1 role. If Sorsby does see starts during the 2026 season, it likely means the campaign has not gone according to plan for his team. If Sorsby comes along well enough behind the scenes, maybe he gets an audition for his team in 2027. And when he gets that audition, a clever playcaller should be able to draw a solid offense out of his explosiveness, nifty releases and downfield disposition. There’s a solid starter in here somewhere, but the unique circumstances of Sorsby’s entrance into the league make that player all the more difficult to develop. Which teams are his best fits?Sorsby is an absolute perfect fit for the 2023 Dolphins. In Mike McDaniel’s RPO-heavy system, Sorsby’s light feet and whip-like release would have been ideal for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on all those little seams and glances that sat in the voids between coverages. He would have tossed so many moonshots for Hill to run under. And he could have gotten involved in the running game with De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. It would have been grand. The 2023 Dolphins no longer exist. But that framework — vertical threats for Sorsby to take shots, a heavy dose of RPOs to keep the reads simple and a willingness to involve the QB in the designed running game — is the one we should track for Sorsby’s best offense fits in the league. Of course, the measure of a team fit is more than the scheme. Some teams simply won’t touch Sorsby because of the gambling scandal. But the fits I’ve listed below are entirely about on-field skill sets. 1. Green Bay PackersIn that Sorsby reminds me of Willis, I am unsurprisingly interested in his potential with LaFleur in Green Bay. The Packers’ current QB2 is Tyrod Taylor, whom they signed after the 2026 draft. I’d wager they wanted to snag a quarterback in that draft, but the board never fell their way. The QB3 is Kyle McCord, who doesn’t at all fit the mold of a Packers backup quarterback; they’ve typically prioritized athletes, such as Willis and Taylor, at that spot. Sorsby would likely beat out McCord for the QB3 role and be first in line for QB2 after Taylor’s one-year deal expires in 2027. 2. Carolina PanthersThe Panthers are oddly thin at quarterback for June, as behind Bryce Young they have only Kenny Pickett, Will Grier and Haynes King. Much of what coach Dave Canales does for Young — getting the ball out of his hands fast with big one-on-one winners on the outside — would work for Sorsby. And Sorsby could contend with Pickett for the QB2 job while getting up to speed on the under-center aspect of Canales’ offense. But if Sorsby were forced into action, Canales has run plenty of shotgun RPOs to take advantage of Young’s fast release and natural footwork, and Sorsby brings much of the same. 3. Minnesota VikingsMinnesota is secure at QB for 2026, as Kyler Murray is in town on a one-year deal to refurbish his career and right Kevin O’Connell’s sinking ship. If Murray is a successful veteran quarterback, the Vikings will be faced with the same question they answered last offseason, when they let Sam Darnold sign a deal with the Seahawks to give J.J. McCarthy the reins of the offense. With Sorsby in the building for all of 2026, O’Connell could get a long look at his potential as a QB1 challenger in 2027 should Murray play his way into a bigger deal elsewhere. While the Vikings’ offense isn’t a one-for-one fit for what Sorsby did in college, he saw some translatable concepts (especially rollouts). 4. Indianapolis ColtsAs of today, the Colts don’t have a ton of room for Sorsby on their depth chart. But should they trade Anthony Richardson Sr., then QB2 will belong solely to second-year man Riley Leonard. Behind QB1 Daniel Jones off an Achilles injury, the Colts will need more firepower. Sorsby can easily take on the QB run chapters of Shane Steichen’s playbook, and Steichen has long been a successful RPOer. Sorsby might just bring the consistent deep ball that Steichen has been trying to find in Indianapolis for years as well. This is a fun pairing. 5. Atlanta FalconsThe 2026 starting quarterback job is up for grabs in Atlanta between incumbent Michael Penix Jr. and veteran minimum signee Tua Tagovailoa. New head coach Kevin Stefanski and new president of football Matt Ryan seem content to let the roster simmer for a year as they reshape the team in their image. Could one of Tagovailoa or Penix win the job for 2027? Sure! But it’s unlikely. By drafting Sorsby, the Falcons could give themselves an early look at a developmental challenger for that 2027 gig. Stefanski’s offense wants to get under center and boot the quarterback out. Sorsby did the second half of that quite a bit with Cincinnati, and Stefanski showed last season with Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders that he knows how to adjust the offense for popgun RPO passers. What kind of pick would Sorsby be worth in a vacuum?In the context of recent NFL drafts, in which players such as Penix, Nix and Ty Simpson were first-round picks, I would have expected Sorsby to go in the first round of the draft this past April. He’s far from a perfect prospect, and sitting a year would help him a ton. But he has the combination of size, arm talent, speed and feel that make a plus starter in the league. That potential gets drafted early, and coaches get paid big money to smooth out those rough edges. Now, just because a quarterback would have gone Round 1 in a regular draft (with no off-field considerations) doesn’t mean he has a Round 1 grade. The QB-neediness of the league at large yanks these players into the first round. I personally put a second-round grade on Sorsby. The earliest pick used in a supplemental draft this century was in the second round. Tony Hollings (2003), Ahmad Brooks (2006) and Josh Gordon (2012) were all second-round selections. The last first-round pick used was in 1992 on Dave Brown … a quarterback. Six quarterbacks have been selected in the supplemental draft, and all but Terrelle Pryor (2011) were selected with first-round picks (though the other five were mostly related to deadlines or academics, not off-field red flags). No NFL team will wager a first on Sorsby — not with the excellent upcoming 2027 quarterback class, the expectations that come with being a first-round pick in the 21st century and the third rail of sports gambling ever present in our public spaces and league partnerships. I could see a second being wagered, but it would be surprising. If everything goes well for Sorsby in the predraft process, I would expect a third-round pick to be submitted. But that’s if he totally convinces a team that his gambling days are behind him. Ted Ngyuen of The Athletic goes through a similar analysis – and come to about the same conclusion (although he sees JAXSON DART where Solar saw MALIK WILLIS): Sorsby’s skill set reminds me a lot of Jaxson Dart’s, except Dart’s deep accuracy is much better. Both are tough, athletic option quarterbacks who prefer throwing outside. Dart came from a system that needed him to get through multiple progressions and stretched the field with downfield shots. Stylistically, they are similar, but Dart was the better prospect, didn’t have off-field issues and was a late first-round draft pick. Sorsby is a second-round, developmental pick, but his off-field issues will affect his stock. .Cleveland Browns head coach Todd Monken said he didn’t believe the Browns were in a position to “go down that road” of drafting Sorsby and other franchises are likely thinking the same thing. Sorsby will probably be off several teams’ boards entirely. His physical skill set certainly makes him an intriguing prospect, but I expect he’ll likely get drafted with a third-round pick or below. |
| BIG BUCKS FOR STAR BACKS?Giving away the conclusion here, but The Athletic’s Austin Mock balks at giving big extensions to RBs BIJAN ROBINSON of the Falcons and JAMYR GIBBS of the Lions: If NFL fans have heard it once, they’ve heard it a 1,000 times: “Don’t pay running backs!” You know the reasons — they don’t always age gracefully; teams can find cheap replacements in the NFL Draft — and you’ve been warned by the cautionary tales (Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott). And yet, we’re on the precipice of not one, but perhaps two running backs preparing to upend the market. The new deals the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions are about to hand Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, respectively, are likely to surpass Saquon Barkley’s as the most lucrative on a per-year basis in NFL history. But should Atlanta and Detroit be eager to hand out such deals? Let’s set the stage by starting with the record Robinson and Gibbs are angling to break. Barkley reset the top of the running back market in March 2025 by signing a two-year extension with the Philadelphia Eagles at $20.6 million per year. That average annual value (AAV) of that deal pushed him just ahead of San Francisco 49ers star Christian McCaffrey ($19.6 million). However, even though we’ve seen a couple of high-profile running back extensions since then, neither the Miami Dolphins’ De’Von Achane ($16 million) nor the New York Jets’ Breece Hall ($14.5 million) surpassed Barkley — or McCaffrey — in average annual value, even as the cap has risen. Even highly coveted free agent and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III only landed $14.35 million per year from the Kansas City Chiefs on the open market. So, will Robinson and Gibbs reset the market, or will they fall in line behind Barkley like the others from this offseason? The answer is somewhat surprising, as my model projects only Robinson to “beat” Barkley. To generate the figures in the table for Robinson and Gibbs, I used my NFL Projection Model, which assigns a value to every player in the league. I combined it with historical contracts to project their salaries. The model employs a plethora of metrics, as well as age and, of course, the position itself, to project what a player will make if he signed a contract extension today. It should come as little surprise that the model sees Robinson as the league’s top running back after an electric 2025 season, which saw him tally a league-high 2,298 scrimmage yards with incredible efficiency both on the ground and through the air. Given that Robinson only turned 24 in January, it makes sense he would become the new king of running back contracts with a market-setting four-year, $87.6 million deal, putting him at almost $22 million per year. The model didn’t love Gibbs quite as much, as he graded out as the No. 4 back after a slightly “down” season, at least by his elite standards. Even in a so-called down season, he still racked up more than 1,800 scrimmage yards and scored 18 total touchdowns to back up his elite 2024 campaign. Even though Gibbs also just turned 24 in March, my projection has his new deal coming in at four years and $79.6 million, putting him at $19.9 million per year, below both Robinson and Barkley. Now, will Gibbs get more money than my model projects? Probably. But should he? And, for that matter, should the Falcons be willing to be the team that makes Robinson the highest-paid running back in NFL history? Not to spoil the ending here, but I think you’ll find that these things are close to a historical coin toss. Some lucrative running back extensions end well. Others, not so much. So, whether or not you should root for your team to hand their star running back a huge new contract probably speaks more about your risk appetite. Let’s get into that risk a bit. As we mentioned at the top, the running back position has historically not aged well, and second contracts have often ended poorly, especially for players who took on heavy workloads early in their careers. That last caveat is important because the success stories — Barkley and Derrick Henry — aren’t what they seem. Neither player had the workload that Robinson (1,003 touches) and Gibbs (916 touches) have had in their first three seasons (including playoffs). Barkley had 646 — a torn ACL in Year 3 limited his workload — while Henry only had 580. Henry went on to prove he could handle a massive workload, but he feels like an historical outlier rather than someone teams should use as proof that big-money running back deals are a good idea. Because often, they are not. You don’t have to go very far back in NFL history to see the aforementioned Elliott and Gurley deals going bad before the end of their terms. Elliott had tallied 1,078 touches before signing his market-setting deal ahead of Year 4. He produced one more excellent season but then became a shell of himself and was cut before the deal expired. Gurley, an MVP runner-up in 2017, signed his lucrative extension with the Los Angeles Rams after touching the ball 932 times in his first three seasons. He, too, had one more good season in him, but was released just two years after signing his new deal. However, as we said, there are success stories, too. Two recent standouts are Jonathan Taylor and McCaffrey. Taylor tallied 883 touches with the Indianapolis Colts before signing a three-year, $42 million deal that ended a holdout in his fourth season. While Taylor has battled injuries, he’s mostly held up and produced back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons in 2024 and 2025, the first two of his extension. As for McCaffrey, he was in a similar position to Robinson and Gibbs (938 touches) after his third season in the league. He was a running back at the top of the market and has remained one of the league’s best for many years. However, his situation does come with an asterisk or two. First, McCaffrey signed his extension (four years, $64 million) with the Carolina Panthers before the 2020 season and played just 10 games over the next two seasons, so the Panthers didn’t exactly get much bang for their buck. He then suited up for the Panthers in six games in 2022 before they shipped him off to San Francisco. There’s no doubt he’s been exceptional during his time there, but he’s also dealt with significant durability issues. So, given what we know about what the contracts might look like and some historical context, what should the Falcons and Lions do with their star backs? The verdictI’m rarely a fan of extending running backs but can be talked into it if the guaranteed money works out. The issue, for me, is that it will still be quite some time until their money starts to kick in — both had their fifth-year options picked up and will be on those rookie contracts through 2027 — and, as we’ve seen, 1,000 touches in three years tends to catch up to these guys quickly. Will they still be the same type of game-breaking players after another 600-700 touches? And that’s where the new guaranteed money comes in. If we assume the duo will make around $20 million per year, it’s safe to say $40-$50 million of the contract will be guaranteed, including the 2028 season. That also means a significant portion of the guaranteed money will hit the cap in 2028 and likely some in 2029. See where this is going? Are we certain they are going to be the same players as they were three to four years earlier? That’s a lot of projection for a position that doesn’t always fare well in the long term. I don’t have the stomach for that much risk, not after seeing what happened to players like Elliott and Gurley. Perhaps Robinson and Gibbs will age like Henry, Taylor or McCaffrey and end up being worth $20 million per year right now, but history tells us that’s not the best bet to make. |
