NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com runs a want ad for Lions LB JARRAD DAVIS as free agency gears up:

He was a first-round pick in 2017, but he hasn’t fully lived up to that billing. As his first shot at free agency arrives, Lions linebacker Jarrad Davis could end up being a guy who gets more attention than expected on the open market.

As we hearing it, it won’t be a massive, eyebrow-raising deal. But it could happen fairly quickly. It ultimately could be a one-year contract in the range of $7 million or so. And it will give Davis a chance to show what he can do in a defense that better showcases his abilities.

That’s the word currently making the rounds — the Lions didn’t use him properly. If/when someone does, Davis could significantly enhance his earning potential.

It likely will take a year or so for Davis to establish himself. Part of the challenge will be landing in a place where Davis can shine. If that happens, he could end up being a much bigger name in free agency a year from now, when the cap will be higher and more teams will be ready to spend.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Peter King details all the QBs the Cowboys liked more than DAK PRESCOTT – Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook.  But they couldn’t, wouldn’t make a trade to get in position to draft them, so Prescott fell to Dallas in the 4^th.

There is a postscript to the story of the Prescott marriage with the Dallas Cowboys. The Paxton Lynch coronation in the team’s draft room was not unanimous.

In 2016, the Cowboys quarterback coach was former NFL QB Wade Wilson, who, sadly, died in 2019 of complications from Type 1 diabetes. Inside the Dallas scouting world, Wilson was a notoriously tough quarterback grader. Many times in his 17 pre-draft seasons as an NFL quarterbacks coach, the available quarterbacks weren’t good enough. They had some problem that Wilson considered disqualifying. But in 2016, after the Dak Prescott workout, Wilson told head coach Jason Garrett, “This guy can play. This is a guy we’d like.” Garrett’s ears perked up. And when Prescott was tabbed to make one of the team’s few pre-draft visits to Cowboys headquarters in 2016, Garrett quizzed him on a few plays and on his recent DUI in Mississippi. When Garrett met with players before the draft, he liked to ask the questions fast and intersperse them with character questions, so the player might not have time to give what might be a polished answer to something troubling on his résumé. Prescott answered everything right. He picked up the plays from this foreign offense with photographic-memory proficiency. He took full accountability for the DUI, blaming no one but himself.

Prescott’s grade, in Garrett’s world, shot way up. So on day three of the draft, when Prescott’s name came off the board, Garrett was very good with that. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan liked Prescott too. And Wilson was over the moon, in his reserved way; he’d gotten his man.

And King has this on the history of big QB money:

In terms of average compensation per year, the biggest NFL contracts have quadrupled in 20 years.

March 1, 2001

Brett Favre: 10 years, $101 million

NFL salary cap: $67.4 million

QB’s percent of cap: 15.0%

Favre played seven more years with the Packers and made $62.5 million, or $8.93 million per year.

March 4, 2013

Joe Flacco: 6 years, $120.6 million

NFL salary cap: $123 million

QB’s percent of cap: 16.3%

Great deal for Flacco and agent Joe Linta, including a 2016 restructure. In the six Ravens seasons from 2013-18, Flacco earned $124 million.

May 3, 2018

Matt Ryan: 5 years, $150 million

NFL salary cap: $177.2 million

QB’s percent of cap: 16.9%

All good for Ryan so far. He’s earned $94 million in the first three years of the contract.

July 6, 2020

Patrick Mahomes: 10 years, $450 million

NFL salary cap: $198.2 million

QB’s percent of cap: 22.7%

A difficult contract to peg like the others, with team-friendly cap numbers of $5.3 million and $24.8 million in years one and two.

March 8, 2021

Dak Prescott: 4 years, $160 million

NFL salary cap: $182.5 million

QB’s percent of cap: 21.9%

Cowboys should have done this deal earlier, but the cap’s expected to be in the $220-million range by 2023.

NEW YORK GIANTS

T NATE SOLDER opted out of 2020, but he is expected back in 2021 on a re-worked deal.  Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

Offensive tackle Nate Solder is expected to return to the New York Giants on a reworked deal, a source told ESPN on Saturday, with financial details still to be finalized.

Solder, who opted out of the 2020 NFL season because of COVID-19 concerns for his family, was scheduled to make $10 million in 2021 while costing $16.5 million against the salary cap this season.

Solder was considered a high-risk opt-out in 2020 and his contract was tolled. The decision to opt out last season centered on his family. Solder’s oldest son, Hudson, has had cancer. So has Nate. Solder and his wife, Lexi, also had a newborn last year.

Solder, 32, had expressed his intention to play in 2021 if the situation was right, he told ESPN in a phone conversation late last month.

Solder, at a then-record four-year deal worth $62 million, was the prized signing during the 2018 offseason, but he struggled during his full two seasons in New York.

A total of 27 sacks were attributed to the Giants’ starting left tackle in 2018 and 2019, tied for the most in the NFL. His pass block win rate of 81.6% was 52nd of the 74 qualifying tackles during that time.

Solder has appeared in 130 career games (127 starts) with the Giants and New England Patriots, who drafted him No. 17 overall in 2011. He spent seven seasons with New England and won two Super Bowls before going to New York.

WASHINGTON

PK DUSTIN HOPKINS has a new deal.  JP Finlay of NBCWashington:

@JPFinlayNBCS

Sources tell me Washington is bringing back kicker Dustin Hopkins. He was slated for free agency but a new deal should be announced this week. 84 percent FG kicker in six seasons for Washington

NFC SOUTH

NEW ORLEANS

On Sunday, 15 years to the day after he signed with the Saints, QB DREW BREES and family announced his retirement.  Mike Triplett of ESPN.com:

One of the most prolific careers in NFL history has come to an end, as New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees announced Sunday on Instagram he has decided to retire after 20 seasons.

Brees’ four children, Baylen, Bowen, Callen and Rylen, announced in a video: “After 15 years with the Saints and 20 years in the NFL, our dad is finally gonna retire. So he can spend more time with us! Yeah!!”

Brees added a message to the post that read:

“After 20 years as a player in the NFL and 15 years as a Saint, it is time I retire from the game of football. Each day, I poured my heart & soul into being your Quarterback. Til the very end, I exhausted myself to give everything I had to the Saints organization, my team, and the great city of New Orleans. We shared some amazing moments together, many of which are emblazoned in our hearts and minds and will forever be a part of us.

“You have molded me, strengthened me, inspired me, and given me a lifetime of memories. My goal for the last 15 years was striving to give to you everything you had given to me and more. I am only retiring from playing football, I am not retiring from New Orleans. This is not goodbye, rather a new beginning. Now my real life’s work begins!”

Brees, 42, retires as the NFL’s all-time leader in career passing yards (80,358) and ranks second all time in touchdown passes (571) and completion percentage (67.7%). More than that, though, Brees will always be revered for helping to revive the Saints franchise and the city of New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina when he and coach Sean Payton arrived together in 2006.

They led the Saints to the NFC Championship Game in that first year and won the only Super Bowl in franchise history three years later, with Brees being named the game’s MVP.

“When I was hired by the Saints as head coach in 2006, the very first goal was to establish a functional and winning culture,” Payton said in a statement. “In doing so, it was vital to know what we were looking for in a player, talent, work ethic, makeup, intelligence and leadership are all qualities we found in Drew Brees. … I am forever grateful for what he has done for our team, our community and for me personally.”

Brees never got back to a second Super Bowl despite leading the Saints to four straight NFC South titles over the past four years. His final game was a disappointing 30-20 loss to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round of the playoffs — the first time Brees ever threw three interceptions in a playoff game.

Drew Brees’ Notable Records

• All-time leader in passing yards and completions (2nd in passing TDs)

• Owns three best single-season completion percentage marks

• Owns best single-game completion percentage mark (96.7%)

• Only player with multiple 5,000-yard seasons (5)

• Most seasons leading NFL in passing yards (7)

• Most consecutive games with a passing TD (54)

• Most career games with 300+ passing yards (123)

• Matched single-game record with 7 passing TDs

— ESPN Stats & Information

On top of all the gaudy numbers and historic accomplishments, Brees also will be remembered as a great underdog story. At just 6 feet tall, Brees was recruited by only two colleges before a record-breaking career at Purdue. He fell to the second round of the draft in 2001, where he began his career with the San Diego Chargers.

In his final game with the Chargers in 2005, Brees suffered a devastating shoulder injury — a 360-degree labrum tear and some rotator cuff damage, which required 12 anchors to repair. Renowned surgeon James Andrews later said Brees’ recovery was the most remarkable of any athlete he ever treated, and Brees was back on the field with the Saints in Week 1 of that unforgettable 2006 season.

“Drew is so much more valuable than all the records, awards and accolades that he amassed through a 15-year career with the New Orleans Saints and 20-year NFL playing career, one of the greatest in our league’s history,” Saints owner Gayle Benson said in a statement. “When Drew first joined the Saints in 2006, my late husband Tom was determined to deliver a team to New Orleans that would win a championship on the field and become a leader in the community following the setbacks that Hurricane Katrina dealt our region. Over and above his outstanding performance, Drew came to represent the resolve, passion and drive that resonates not only with Saints fans and football fans, but our entire community.”

Brees finished his career with a record of 172-114 as a starting quarterback in the regular season and 9-9 in the postseason. He was 142-86 and 9-8 in 15 years with the Saints, with whom his partnership with Payton produced some of the most spectacular offensive teams the game has ever seen.

Brees threw for more than 5,000 yards in a season five different times; no other quarterback has done it more than once. He holds the top three single-season completion percentages in NFL history and six of the top nine.

Brees has ranked among the NFL’s top 10 passers in ESPN’s Total QBR metric in all 15 seasons since it was created in 2006; it’s a streak six years longer than that of any other quarterback during that span.

Though he never won a regular-season MVP award, Brees finished second a record four times.

Brees has long said he believed he could play at a high level until the age of 45 — as long as he wanted to keep playing. But starting in 2017, he also said he started taking each season one year at a time — treating each like it could be his last — and that he would take some time after each season to reflect with wife, Brittany, and their kids about whether he wanted to keep playing.

Brees had already lined up his “next chapter” last year, when he agreed to become an analyst for NBC after his playing days were over.

At the same time, the Saints give an extension to TAYSOM HILL that looks huge at first blush.  Triplett looks at the position post-Brees:

If you’re handicapping the New Orleans Saints’ quarterback field after Drew Brees retired on Sunday night, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill remain the odds-on favorites to compete for the job this summer.

The Saints have made it clear they want to re-sign Winston in free agency. And Hill is under contract for one more year. (Hill restructured his contract on Sunday to include four automatically voiding years at an astounding rate of $140 million, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. But that was strictly for salary-cap purposes, and Hill didn’t actually get any new money or years added to his current deal. More on that later.)

Of course, the Saints could consider a splash move like trading a truckload of draft picks for the Seattle Seahawks signal-caller Russell Wilson — if he actually becomes available. Or moving up 20-plus spots in the NFL draft to get their hands on a top-five QB prospect. The position is important enough to weigh all scenarios.

But Winston and Hill are the most realistic and affordable options. More importantly, the Saints have given every indication they believe both have the potential to grow into playoff-caliber starters.

Here’s a closer look at the post-Brees landscape in New Orleans:

What’s the deal with Hill’s restructured contract?

Pay no attention to the numbers behind the curtain!

The staggeringly high numbers in Hill’s restructured contract raised eyebrows when they were reported Sunday. But they don’t actually mean anything, since those years will automatically void at the end of this season — a practice that has become more common around the NFL this year because of the league’s reduced salary cap.

Typically, such automatically voiding salaries aren’t reported since they will never actually be paid out. And they are often heavily inflated because of a league rule that does not allow players to renegotiate higher salaries within 12 months of a previous renegotiation.

Hill will still earn the exact same total of $12.159 million in salary and bonuses this year that he was already scheduled to receive. But he converted $9.689 million of his salary into a signing bonus — which allows teams to spread the cap charges over multiple years.

So now, Hill’s salary-cap cost will drop from $16.159 million to $8.410 million in 2021. And the remaining $7.749 million will count in “dead money” against the 2022 cap after Hill’s contract voids — unless a real extension is completed by next year.

The Saints have made similar moves with several contracts this year to get under the salary cap, since they started the offseason nearly $100 million over the cap.

The case for Hill

Hill neither secured nor lost his grip on the long-term job when he went 3-1 as a starter last season while Brees was injured.

Hill was better than most outsiders expected as a passer, completing 71.9% of his throws for 834 yards, four TDs and two interceptions in those four starts. But he needs to improve his anticipation and decision-making once he gets past his first or second read. And he definitely needs to improve his ball security after fumbling 10 times and losing five of them in 2020. Most of his trouble came when he held onto the ball too long in the pocket — a surprise, considering his outstanding rushing ability.

All of those things could improve with more experience, though, especially since he hadn’t played regular snaps at quarterback since he was a senior at BYU in 2016. And both Saints coach Sean Payton and Hill could do a much better job of exploiting Hill’s legs by either designing more run plays or encouraging him to scramble sooner. The only drawback to that approach would be injury risk, since Hill seems to relish contact rather than sliding or running out of bounds.

The case for Winston

Payton made it clear the Saints want Winston back in free agency, after he spent one year in the building as a backup last season. Not only was Payton enamored with Winston’s “tremendous arm talent” (which he showed off with a 56-yard touchdown pass on a trick play in New Orleans’ playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), but Payton also called Winston “fantastic as a leader.”

Of course, there are some well-known shortcomings with Winston’s game, including accuracy issues and a turnover epidemic. But he was the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft for a reason; he led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards in 2019; and he just turned 27 in January. He also has made strides toward improving his game, including LASIK eye surgery, improved diet and fitness — and the humble decision to come to New Orleans to learn under Payton and Brees for a year.

Winston is no sure thing, but he probably has as much potential as anyone the Saints could acquire in this year’s draft. He would have to win the job against Hill in training camp. But the fact that Winston is younger than the 30-year-old Hill, with a higher ceiling — and Hill could continue to be used in his versatile role as a runner/receiver — could give Winston an edge.

Trade for a superstar?

Wilson’s agent has identified the Saints as a preferred destination if he gets traded, so if Wilson wants to come to New Orleans, the Saints (and New Orleans’ mayor) would welcome him with open arms. And they would make an aggressive offer, despite the fact they were still about $60 million over the projected salary cap as of Tuesday. The same goes for Deshaun Watson, if he becomes available via trade. If the Saints have to trade or release some of their current starters, they’ll do it to acquire an elite quarterback.

There are two problems, however. One is that neither the Seattle Seahawks nor the Houston Texans are openly shopping Wilson and Watson at this point, so it seems highly unlikely a deal could come together before the start of free agency. The bigger hurdle is the Saints can’t offer a premium draft choice or a young developmental QB in return.

Other quarterbacks could become available on the trade market, depending on how the game of musical chairs plays out around the league — potentially including Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa. The Saints obviously like Bridgewater after he spent two years in New Orleans, and they liked Garoppolo when he was coming out in the draft. But Bridgewater is due $39 million over the next two years, while Garoppolo is due more than $50 million over the next two years.

The Saints could re-sign Winston in free agency for a much lower price without having to give up any draft picks to acquire him. It will be hard to sway them to anyone who isn’t an elite upgrade.

What about the draft?

ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay had quarterbacks going at Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 9 in his latest mock. The price would be exorbitant for the Saints to move up from No. 28 — even if someone like Alabama’s Mac Jones or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance falls a little farther than expected.

If the Saints decide to go the draft-and-develop route, one name ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. suggested as a possibility is Jamie Newman — who started 16 games at Wake Forest from 2018 to 2019, then opted out of last season over coronavirus concerns after transferring to Georgia.

“Here’s a kid who showed a lot of talent and promise,” Kiper said. “Had he played at Georgia, he might have been a first- or second-round pick. Now you’re getting him in the third or fourth round, possibly.”

ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller also listed Florida’s Kyle Trask and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond as likely Round 2 picks with the potential to develop into starters.

Peter King on Brees future.  It has Notre Dame in it:

BREES POSTSCRIPT, Monday, 7:45 a.m. ET: As suspected, Brees announced today on NBC’s “Today” show that he’s joining the network as a football announcer. He’ll work in the booth as analyst at Notre Dame games alongside Mike Tirico this fall, and also work in the NBC studio Sunday night on “Football Night in America.” In addition, he’s expected to work on other sports programming in the NBC family, such as the Olympics and the Kentucky Derby. NBC has been after Brees for the last couple of years. One thing I’ve seen in my years at NBC is how the network works with new broadcasters to be sure they’re put in position to succeed, and so Brees will get the support from the Sunday night team that he needs. “My first thought on Drew and TV is he’ll be successful because is so meticulous and he prepares so well,” Loomis said. That’s the feeling around football for sure. The shift from field to booth is tougher than it looks. Brees will learn that being good on TV is not just studying the teams and knowing everything about them. It’s also having that down-home way of communicating with an audience. Brees ought to be able to figure that part out too.

TAMPA BAY

A new deal for QB TOM BRADY that would seem to be a commitment for 2022 while saving money in 2021.  Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

Quarterback Tom Brady has signed a contract extension with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team announced Friday.

While the Bucs did not reveal any details, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that it is a four-year contract extension that voids to a one-year extension. The deal ties Brady to Tampa through the 2022 season, sources said.

The move saves the Buccaneers $19 million against the salary cap this year, sources said. The additional voidable years are there to defray the cost. It was another effort from Brady to keep as much of the team together as possible.

In an Instagram post on Friday, Brady said he’s ready to chase his eighth Super Bowl win.

“When we acquired Tom a year ago, we were extremely excited about the leadership, poise and winning track record that he would bring to our locker room. Since that time, he has proven himself to be the ultimate competitor and delivered in every way we had imagined, helping us capture the Lombardi Trophy,” Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht said in a statement Friday. “Year after year, Tom proves that he remains one of the elite quarterbacks in this game and we couldn’t be happier to keep him in Tampa Bay as we continue to pursue our goals together.”

As of Friday morning, before Brady’s new deal, the Bucs were $7.756 million over the $182.5 million salary cap, after using the franchise tag on wide receiver Chris Godwin and re-signing inside linebacker Lavonte David to a two-year extension.

Like Brady’s deal, David’s contract includes voidable years, something the Bucs have not used in well over a decade. David will count only $3.5 million against the salary cap in 2021, despite playing on a two-year deal worth $25 million, because his contract includes three voidable years. The drawback to doing voidable years is that the Bucs will essentially be borrowing from the future. But they recognize that Brady’s window is small, even with an extra year on what was originally a two-year contract.

“Tom is one of those guys that understands that it takes a whole village to win,” David said Friday. “It takes a team, a group of guys, to win football games. Me, the same thing. I’m all about team. And I’ll do what I can, do what it takes to hopefully get everybody back and go do this thing again. … The bond that we had, the bond that we shared this year — it was like no other.”

Brady’s deal gives the Bucs space to try to bring back outside linebacker Shaq Barrett, who notched 4.0 sacks in the postseason and led the NFL with 19.5 sacks in 2019.

But Barrett isn’t the only one the Bucs have to think about. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, wide receiver Antonio Brown, kicker Ryan Succop and running back Leonard Fournette are all set to become free agents on Wednesday if new deals can’t be reached.

In February, Licht said that he and coach Bruce Arians would be “elated” if they could extend Brady.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com with some details of Brady making money now for future work:

Once again, Tom Brady has done a favor for his team. Once again, he’ll nevertheless make more money that he previously was supposed to get.

According to Tom Pelissero of NFL Media, Brady is “due” $41.075 million in 2021, with the remaining $8.925 million coming in 2022. It’s a grand total of $50 million over two years.

The short=term increase in cash nevertheless comes with cap savings, via the use of voidable years into which 2021 signing bonuses will be spread. Per Pelissero, Brady’s cap number will be $9.075 million, $19.3 million lower than what it would have been.

Obviously, this contract was far more complex than a so-called “simple restructuring” that would have reduced Brady’s $25 million in 2021 compensation to the minimum and converted the balance to a signing bonus. He’s somehow getting more while still generating more than $19 million in cap space.

We’re working on getting the full details and complete explanation on this one. Here’s one nugget we’ve managed to finagle so far: Of the $41.075 million Brady will earn in 2021, $15 million actually will be paid in 2022.

That automatically undercuts the impression that he’ll pocket more than $41 million in 2021. Even if he did, and even though that amount surpasses Dak Prescott‘s annual average on his new four-year deal, it’s important to remember that Prescott definitely will be paid $75 million before the end of the 2021 season.

Finally, it’s hard to imagine Brady not signing another new contract in 2022, if he indeed sticks around for a third season. Given the money the Bucs will make with Brady on the roster, the team won’t bat an eye at yet again giving him more — especially when he’s still far below the most that quarterbacks make.

Thoughts from Peter King:

1. I think the most curious franchise-tag decision was made by Tampa Bay, tagging wide receiver Chris Godwin (at $15.98 million for the 2021 season) despite the embarrassment of riches at wide receiver for the Bucs, and not tagging pass-rusher Shaq Barrett (at $20.64 million). That allowed Barrett to enter unrestricted free agency at age 28, at the top of an important positional market. If I were Bucs GM Jason Licht, I’d have much preferred Barrett on my opening-day roster than Godwin. Digging deep into why it happened:

• If the Bucs franchised Barrett and tried to negotiate a multi-year deal with him—which would have been their aim—the floor of the deal would have been $20.6 million, high for the edge-rusher market this year. I expect they’ll still try to re-sign Barrett, but only at a lower number.

• There’s a chance—maybe a good one—that one of the cash-rich teams (Jacksonville? Cincinnati?) will target Barrett. Why not? He has 31.5 sacks in 35 regular-season and playoff games in Tampa Bay in his two years there, and that’s the most sacks in the league over the past two years. But if he’s gone, look for a fairly deep (relatively speaking) pass-rusher market emerging. Tampa could scotch-tape the pass-rush together with a Bud Dupree, Leonard Floyd, Melvin Ingram or Haason Reddick for a year or two.

• One veteran agent told me he thought the secondary pass-rush market (Carlos Dunlap, Reddick, Olivier Vernon, Ryan Kerrigan) could produce quality rushers on one-year deal for around $4 million to $5 million a year, depending on desperation.

• Regarding Godwin, if he’s willing to do a long-term deal at a team-friendly price, the Bucs might be able to sign him for, say, three years at $45 million. If he wants to play on the tag, he can hit the market next year. Tampa Bay doubts there will be more than one or two free-agent receivers (Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster) who will make more than $10-12 million a year, so that could put the team in better position to sign Godwin long-term.

• Even if Tampa has Godwin for just 2021, that’s one more year of experience for likely future heir Tyler Johnson, the 2020 fifth-round pick from Minnesota who is highly regarded in the organization and by quarterback Tom Brady. Scotty Miller, the 2019 sixth-round from Bowling Green, is another trusted and reasonably priced option.

2. I think this is why the Tom Brady contract means something to the Bucs. It’s not just about Brady not maxing out his earning potential in Tampa. As he’s told the Bucs, he doesn’t care so much about the money as he does in keeping the band together for another run (or two) at a Super Bowl. Brady is basically content to make $15 million per year under market value (Brady $25 million per year, Deshaun Watson $39 million, Dak Prescott $40 million) as long as his team scratches and claws to keep a highly competitive team on the field. And this year, the only vital player who might be lost is Shaq Barrett after the Bucs won Super Bowl 55.

Let’s project for a moment that Brady plays two more NFL seasons with the Bucs and plays out the contract he signed last week . . . and then retires. His cap number this year is $9.075 million, and $16.925 million next year, and then, in retirement, the Bucs would have $24 million in Brady dead money to account for. Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht could choose to take the entire $24-million cap hit in 2023 (doubtful), or he could assign Brady’s retirement to June 2, 2023 (a post-June 1 retirement allows the Bucs to pro-rate the cap hit over two years), meaning Brady would count $8 million against the Tampa cap in 2023 and $16 million in 2024. Why does that matter? Because by 2024, the cap should be climbing out of the pandemic doldrums and be in the $230-million or so range, and hiding a $14-million cap charge would be more tolerable. However it unfolds, the ability to push Brady’s cap burden as far as possible is best for the Bucs trying to capitalize on this championship window.

NFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers bring back one of their cornerbacks.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

With free agency approaching, the San Francisco 49ers’ top four cornerbacks were all slated for some form of free agency. On Friday, that number dwindled to three as the Niners struck a deal with Emmanuel Moseley.

Moseley agreed to a two-year contract worth up to $10.1 million, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. That means Moseley, who was slated to be a restricted free agent, will not have to go through the tender offer process and is signed for the next two seasons.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

Albert Breer on what’s up with Kansas City’s offensive line:

The Chiefs’ decision making with their tackles might not be quite what you think. And I’m not saying they were going to say goodbye to Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz regardless of their injury situations. But I’ve been told by multiple people connected to the situation there that this was always going to be a turning-the-page offseason for K.C. with its offensive line, regardless of what happened with those guys health-wise, or in the Super Bowl as a result of those health issues. Is it possible that those guys might’ve made the cut if they were healthy, for the transition? Sure. Maybe. But that they weren’t, that there was a question whether either would be ready for camp and that their ailments (back for Schwartz, Achilles for Fisher) were problematic ones for big men in their thirties, made it so the Chiefs couldn’t allot $25 million of space to them in a tight-cap environment.

Maybe Fisher will wind up back there, and maybe Schwartz, if he decides to keep playing, will too. Either way, the Chiefs have created space to start, in earnest, their reset in what they’ll put in front of Patrick Mahomes for the next few years, with a rich draft class there and some free-agent options at those positions (Trent Williams, Riley Reiff, Russell Okung). And now, they’ll have room to operate. Last week, at this point, they projected to be over $20 million in the red on the cap. After these moves, plus simple restructures I’m told are coming on Patrick Mahomes’s, Chris Jones’s and Travis Kelce’s contracts, they’ll have more than $20 million to spend.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Although he wasn’t franchised, TE HUNTER HENRY isn’t necessarily looking for greener pastures.  TMZSports.com:

Don’t give up hopes yet, Bolts fans … Hunter Henry tells TMZ Sports he could still re-sign a long-term deal with L.A. despite hitting the open free agency market later this month.

“I will say I’m not ruling out the Chargers,” said the star tight end, who’s caught 196 receptions for L.A. since his draft in 2016. “I’m not ruling out the Chargers and I won’t rule out the Chargers.”

As for why … it’s pretty simple — Henry just loves the team’s young superstar quarterback, Justin Herbert!

“My favorite quarterback?” Henry told us. “Shoot, I love Herbie. That’s my guy!”

Of course, Henry admits a lot of his decision will also come down to finances … and if the Chargers can’t make a compelling offer, it’s clear the 26-year-old could end up elsewhere.

As for where that might be … Henry said he’s got no clear favorites at the moment, and is willing to listen to all offers when they come at the beginning of free agency.

Henry, though, does know what he’s going to buy when he lands his new contract — telling us a house is the first priority.

By the way, whatever team lands Hunter is going to get an in-shape TE who’s refined his hands … ’cause he tells us he’s been working with the Seeker — a robotic QB — insisting the thing has been a godsend during lockdowns.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Albert Breer on the contract signed by QB CAM NEWTON for 2021:

The Cam Newton news is not worth Patriots fans freaking out over. Contracts will always tell you what a team—and to some degree, the league—thinks of a player. And if you dig into the details on Newton’s deal to return to New England, it’s not hard to read this one. Newton gets $2 million to sign, a $1.5 million base for 2021 that’s fully guaranteed, $1.5 million in per-game roster bonuses, $8.5 million in incentives and a $100,000 workout bonus. And going through the incentives, here’s the rough translation:

• He’ll get $3.6 million if he doesn’t make the team.

• He’ll likely get at least $5.1 million if he does, and stays healthy (they won’t put him on the roster to make him a gameday inactive).

• More realistically, he’ll probably earn either $5.6 million or $6.1 million (based on playing time triggers), if he makes the roster, because I can’t imagine they’ll keep him as a backup.

• If he hits any of the remaining $7.5 million in playoff and awards incentives, then the decision to bring him back will have been a success.

Now, here’s the thing—when the cap was set last week, the Patriots had about $68.2 million to work with. That’ll come down a little with the Trent Brown trade, but the bottom line is that allotting $6 million of that space to give yourself a placeholder at the position (and maybe he’ll be more than that, we’ll see) is a worthy use of that resource. And if he’s really good, it’ll be worth it to dump a few million in incentives into next year’s cap. Fact is, Newton had a horrific situation around him in 2020, with a skill group worse than Alabama’s or Ohio State’s (no exaggeration), had barely played any football in a year and a half going in, was coming off significant shoulder and foot surgeries, and got COVID-19 after a promising start. So I have no issue with the Patriots taking another flier on Cam, so long as they make him compete for the job with another vet and/or a rookie coming in.

THIS AND THAT

FREE AGENCY THOUGHTS:

Peter King:

• The market is worse than you think. Last week, I used a chart in this column comparing the average cap space available this year entering free agency per team ($13.06 million) to last year’s cap space per team ($43.33 million). But I should have used an asterisk. That doesn’t include the rookie pool that teams have to budget for, which averages between $7 million and $10 million per team. So you see Kansas City firing both starting tackles and think, “They’re $12 million under the cap—they can buy one this week in a depressed market.” Budgeting for the rookie pool, though, would leave KC somewhere near $5 million under the cap in reality. But overall, teams last year entered the league year with about $1.3 billion to spend on free agents and rookies; this year the number is about $420 million. So it’s no exaggeration to think you’ll see one-third of the early action as you did last year.

• Money spent on the top end of free agency is usually wasteful. “Usually” is being charitable. In the last three free-agency seasons, the Jets guaranteed six imports more than $10 million: linebacker C.J. Mosley ($43 million), cornerback Trumaine Johnson ($34 million), running back Le’Veon Bell ($27 million), center Connor McGovern ($18 million), wideout Jamison Crowder ($17 million), and linebacker Avery Williamson ($16 million). Out of that $155 million in guarantees, the Jets got one good player—Crowder. The rest are either long gone or major disappointments. Check out the biggest contracts in free agency over the past three years, all those for $70 million or more, and what has become of each player:

Trey Flowers, Detroit ($90 million). Nine sacks in two years for an edge rusher.

Nick Foles, Jacksonville ($88 million). Made $38 million in two Jacksonville/Chicago years while going 2-9.

C.J. Mosley, Jets ($85 million). Two years, one opt-out, 121 snaps, earned $29 million.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota ($84 million). Good NFL starting quarterback.

Byron Jones, Miami ($82.5 million). Per Pro Football Focus, allowed a passer rating of 117.0 in 2020, second-worst among corners who played 500 snaps or more.

Trumaine Johnson, Jets ($72.5 million). Benched for good in second Jet season. Cut after the year. One of the worst free-agent signings in history.

Robert Quinn, Chicago ($70 million). Two sacks in 15 games in first Bear season, 2020.

I know—most of these players won’t be around to earn the full contract, except for Cousins. But it gives you an idea of how bad an idea it is to jump into the market and overpay stars who are not stars.

• They will be paid. Some players will get big money early. Those who I think get good money this week: Giants DT Dalvin Tomlinson, Bucs edge-rusher Shaq Barrett, Lions wideout Kenny Golladay, Steelers wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster, Niners left tackle Trent Williams, Pats guard Joe Thuney, Titans TE Jonnu Smith.

• Wait out the spenders. The market is so deep this year, with good players on the street (Trai Turner, Kevin Zeitler, Bud Dupree, Casey Hayward) who have either been released or are free agents. After two weeks, my bet is you could pick from this list of players with good football left and buy for one year, $3 million or less: tight end Jared Cook; wideouts John Brown, Demarcus Robinson, Willie Snead; running back Mike Davis; and a slew of pass-rushers.

There’s never been so many tempting rushers in a free-agency class. Aldon Smith could have multiple double-digit-sack seasons left after rising in Dallas last year; Bud Dupree was on his way to a career year last year in Pittsburgh before getting hurt; Carl Lawson is terminally underrated; Melvin Ingram should be due for a rebound; and Haason Reddick, Matthew Judon and Trey Hendrickson all are intriguing. A month from now, two or three of those players will be unsigned and have massive chips on their shoulder, almost certain to be smart one-year buys while they re-establish a market for 2022.

• Buy what you know. The Bengals should attack the offensive line. They lost out on one desired target Kevin Zeitler, 31, a top 15 guard who played his first five years in Cincinnati; he signed a three-year deal with Baltimore. With the Bengals looking to find some Joe Burrow protection and $41.3 million to spend under the cap, another familiar face they could target is Steelers left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, though he will be in demand in a weak left-tackle market. Burrow’s too important for Cincinnati to not make the line a priority this year.

2021 DRAFT

Albert Breer of SI.com on the importance of his Pro Day to North Dakota State QB TREY LANCE:

Trey Lance really is, in some ways, the face of this weird draft year.

He didn’t play more than one game in the fall of 2020 because his school, North Dakota State, didn’t play more than one game. He didn’t get the benefit of the combine and won’t get the benefit of working out privately for teams, which means that—as we wrote about in Thursday’s GamePlan column—Friday’s pro day at North Dakota State was really his one shot at giving the NFL’s top decision makers an idea of what he can bring to the table physically in person.

That’s why the Jets, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks, Vikings and Washington Football Team all sent their GMs; the Falcons, Lions, Bears and Panthers sent both their GMs and head coaches; and the Fargodome was littered with offensive coordinators and QBs coaches, too. And that’s even though Oklahoma’s pro day was happening simultaneously.

So what were the takeaways? To find out, we hit up a few guys who were there.

General Manager 1: “He was really impressive. You look at him, you can feel his presence when you talk to him, and that’s a big thing for quarterbacks. And the ball just jumps off his hand. His deep ball was awesome, he has tremendous arm strength. His accuracy was a little hit-and-miss. But once you saw him get in a rhythm, he started hitting guys more consistently. He’s just a really talented guy. … This was a big day for him, and he handled it really well. He’s an impressive guy, he did a really nice job today. People might b—- that he threw high to this guy, or behind that guy, but you saw everything you needed to see physically.”

General Manager 2: “He looks the part. He’s a big, long athlete, has a good look in his eye. I like the poise he showed in the workout, when he missed a throw it didn’t faze him. The ball jumped off his hand. I think he helped himself. The arm looked strong on tape, and that checked out. He has a really good arm, not a Josh Allen arm, but really good. The workout was efficiently run. He missed some throws—his accuracy’s not elite for a high first-round guy, but neither was Josh Allen’s or Lamar Jackson’s. He’s gotta clean up some fundamentals. But he’s a really smart kid, he played in a pro offense, he can do that. He does lock on to his primary [receiver] at times. But the upside and makeup are there. He might have to modify something, but he’s got a chance to be really good.”

Offensive coach: “He threw it better than I expected. He didn’t show signs of the big loop you saw on tape. He tightened that up and it wasn’t forced, just watching him throw. He threw it really well. He’s got some stiffness, because he’s a big, muscular guy, but showed what he needed to. He misses throws, and there’s some of that because of the stiffness. I just think he gets tight in how he throws. But he, to me, looks like a more natural passer than Josh Allen did coming out. I was more worried more about Josh’s accuracy—and I was wrong on that. In comparison, a guy like [Justin] Fields is a more fluid athlete. This is more an overpowering athlete, not as smooth, just a big, strong, fast, physical guy.”

In summary? There was a ton of pressure on Lance—something that, again, we discussed with Lance himself in Thursday’s GamePlan column—and for the most part he delivered in backing up all the promise he showed on his 2019 game tape, which keeps him squarely in the picture to go somewhere inside the first 10 picks in April.

And while Lance’s chance to showcase his physical traits is now done, we’re just getting started when it comes to quarterback pro days. Some notable ones coming:

• Alabama (Mac Jones), March 23.

• BYU (Zach Wilson), March 26.

• Ohio State (Justin Fields), March 30.

It should be a fun ride over the next few weeks, especially when you throw some dark horses like Stanford’s Davis Mills (March 18) and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond (March 30) into the mix.