The Daily Briefing Monday, March 6 2023

Field Yates of ESPN with a plea:

@FieldYates

Another NFL Combine in the books.

A huge shoutout to the city of Indianapolis for another incredible job hosting the event.

The best place for the Combine and here’s to hoping it always remains there.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Three writers from The Athletic ponder the options that the Bears have with their first overall pick:

Bears general manager Ryan Poles wasn’t exactly keeping it a secret when he met with the media earlier this week: The No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is for sale.

“We’ve always leaned” toward trading down, Poles said, “because Justin (Fields) did some really good things, and I’m excited about where his game’s going to go.”

At the same time, as NFL GMs find every year, moving down often can be easier said than done. Even if Poles can drum up an offer or two that he likes, the Bears will have to be wary of dropping back too far in Round 1. As The Athletic’s Adam Jahns explained, Chicago will color code its draft board: “Blue” players are the elite prospects and red denotes second-tier players, followed by gold, orange and gray. To put it simply, the Bears have to acquire more blue-level talents, and trading back too far could push them out of draft range.

“We need a lot, and that (first pick) gives us more opportunity to bring in more players,” Poles said. “It’s a good situation to be in for where our club is.”

The rumor mill is already churning. Would the Texans move up from the No. 2 slot to ensure themselves their prospect of choice? Can Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Carolina or any other QB-needy franchise put together enough of a trade package to force Poles’ hand? The Athletic draft experts Nick Baumgardner, Diante Lee and Nate Tice take stock of where things stand from the NFL combine a little less than two months out from the draft:

Nate Tice: In a draft with several quarterbacks holding first-round grades from teams, but those same teams stacking their boards in various ways, it’s very much an “eye of the beholder” situation, which I think is good news for the Bears’ brass. It just takes one team to be worried it might get leapfrogged to the top spot (or that the Texans, sitting at No. 2, fancy the same player it does), and the Bears can stoke the fire of those fears and reap the benefits.

Jahns: Where do the Bears set the line for trading back in the NFL Draft?

Nick Baumgardner: The more I’ve thought about this and talked with folks, the more I’m coming around to a Chicago plan that involves trading down twice. I’m not sure how viable it is, but it could be. The No. 1 pick is expensive, and the jury is still out on whether there’s a QB in this class worthy of that slot.

The Bears will have a market for that pick, but everyone and their aunt knows Chicago wants to trade.

Diante Lee: I’ve maintained that the teams most likely to send Chicago the best offers would be on the back end of the top 10. I’ll place my wager on one of two NFC South teams — Atlanta or Carolina — packaging a handful of picks to make a deal happen.

Atlanta can feel at peace with Desmond Ridder, but is that enough? While Ridder might be good enough to hold the fort as the quarterback through a rebuild, there’s no argument that his ceiling is as high as C.J. Stroud’s or Anthony Richardson’s. If using the QB as a key cog in the running game is going to be the Falcons’ long-term philosophy, they might see Richardson as the top player in the draft. You spend to get the best guy.

Carolina, meanwhile, has spent major money on its coaching staff. But it has also wasted enough time trying to reclaim the fledgling careers of young quarterbacks (Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield), and its cap situation is probably a little too tight to make a quick turnaround by acquiring a veteran. Packaging the necessary draft capital to get a passer like Stroud would make a lot of sense. If he — or any other incoming rookie QB — then looks like a hit in Year 1, a lot of cap space will be available the following offseason to build a contending roster around him.

Of all the rebuilding teams in the NFL, the Panthers have one of the best paths to a quick turnaround if the front office can find the franchise’s next quarterback.

Tice: Colts owner Jim Irsay seems like he’s done with the quarterback merry-go-round he’s been on the past few years and finally wants his guy to lead the franchise. Frank Reich was the coach of those Colts teams that couldn’t solve the problem. He’s now the head coach in Carolina, which, as Diante mentioned, is another team that’s probably tired of swapping quarterbacks seemingly every month.

The Panthers have a talented roster on offense and defense, with a good offensive line that will help alleviate the pressure placed on any young quarterback and give him an environment in which to grow. If they like a guy, I can see them ringing Poles’ phone every day from here on out.

Also don’t count out the Las Vegas Raiders. Their roster is in a strange place. They have a couple of talented players like Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams but holes throughout the rest of their roster (namely on defense, outside of Crosby). They might be more keen on filling those holes with draft selections, but they also have a glaring need for a quarterback — and someone Josh McDaniels can tab as the guy he wants to develop.

Baumgardner: Would someone overpay for a QB in this class? Is there a chance someone wants to move up for Jalen Carter or Will Anderson Jr. instead? Sure. Might Chicago make this move while taking a bit less than the trade-value charts say it should, before moving down again to add even more assets?

All scenarios feel like they’re on the table. The Bears are desperate for picks — Poles made sure everyone in the NFL knew that — and they will continue to dangle the No. 1 spot. This could get interesting, especially if the quarterbacks ace the pre-draft process.

More from Peter King:

Amazing how NFL history can turn on something so strange as a two-point conversion. But the Bears lost in week 18 in the early window to finish their season 3-14; the game ended at 2:29 p.m. CT. There were two minutes left in Indianapolis then, and Houston (2-13-1) was losing 31-24 to the Colts. Poles made his way to the Bears’ locker room. A loss by the Texans would clinch the top pick for Houston. A win would hand the first pick to Chicago. There’s no way the Texans would want to, you know, win this game with such huge consequences, was there?

There was. With 50 seconds left, Davis Mills threw a TD pass to tight end Jordan Akins; 31-30, Colts. Houston head coach Lovie Smith, the former Chicago coach, chose to go for two. Mills to Akins for the conversion, and Houston won, 32-31. In a flash, the order at the top went from Houston 1 and Chicago 2 to the opposite.

Smith got fired hours later.

Mills was on his way out as the Texans’ starting quarterback.

“So I go into the locker room and [I swear] on my kids’ lives, my only thought process at the time was to just show appreciation for guys who fought through a really tough year. I talked to all of them. Then someone pulls me aside and says, ‘Hey, Houston won. We got the first overall pick.’ I wasn’t even there in the mental space to think about it yet.

“Then, that night, getting in the driveway at home, my neighbor drives by and yells out, ‘Hey man, congratulations on the first pick!’ And I was like, a little weird to celebrate this.”

As much as some fans wanted Poles to dump Fields (5-20, a 59.7-percent passer in his first two years, but 1,143 yards rushing this year), it made no sense to the GM. “When we started to adjust and adapt to what he did well, and he started running the ball a little bit, we saw a very unique and special ability and talent that can change the game,” Poles told me. “Now that next piece in terms of being an efficient passer is what we need to get to. I’ve been open about that. We’ve talked about it with Justin. He knows … Can he be more clear-minded when he plays, where he can just play loose because he knows where he’s gonna go with the ball? I do think there’s potential that we have something really good, and to me, you’ve got to see it through.”

Good decision. Fields might turn out to be a plus quarterback. Without a no-doubt franchise QB in the draft, it makes more sense to build a team around Fields—while getting the draft capital in place over the next two or three years if Poles has to go get a quarterback in 2024 or ’25.

As for the market, the best thing I heard here from a QB-seeking team in the top 10 was this from one top club official: “We’re tired of the Band-Aids.” How I see the likely suitors:

The aggressors: Indianapolis and Carolina. The Colts have had a different starting quarterback five years in a row, and haven’t won a playoff game in the last four seasons. GM Chris Ballard is under the gun, and he knows it. I think if he falls in love with one of the top passers, he’ll overpay for him. Carolina could be more desperate. The owner, David Tepper, has made it clear internally he wants a long-term answer at quarterback, and he wants it now. Indianapolis wouldn’t have to trade as much as Carolina for the pick, because it’d be moving up three spots. But the Panthers might be willing to overpay relative to the Colts, and if the Bears have enough “blue” players on the board to ensure they’d get one picking at nine, I could see them taking that deal. What would that package look like? Maybe Chicago trading from one to nine and getting first-round picks in 2024 and ’25 and extra second- and third-round picks over the next two drafts. I’m told it’s entirely possible cooler heads will prevail in Carolina, but we’ll see.

Interested parties: If Houston wants to cut off a suitor for, say, Bryce Young, the Bears could double-trade—taking perhaps two high (but not first-round) picks to go to number two, then deal again for a team, in this example, desperate for C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson. Las Vegas will be interested if there’s a QB Josh McDaniels really likes, but I’m dubious the Raiders will be desperate enough to do what Indy or Carolina would do to move up.

Outside shots. Seattle, at five, likely would have to lose Geno Smith in free-agency to get heavily involved. There’s no book on new Tennessee GM Ran Carthon, so never say never. But for him to outbid Carolina would surprise me.

“I’m blessed to be able to read people,” Poles said about the QB market. “I can feel it. There’s urgency out there. There’s pressure.”

One interesting thing to keep in mind: When the league year begins March 15, teams can trade draft picks in 2023, ’24 and ’25. Beginning on draft day, April 27, teams can trade picks in ’23, ’24, ’25 and ’26. That could make waiting interesting for Chicago.

The three interested parties at the Combine, Poles said, included at least one “that’s further back than what I thought … But if I’m going to the next tier [on the Bears’ draft board], you’re gonna have to make up for that with more capital.

“The interesting part is having a conversation with one team, and then one hour later another team texts you wanting in on the trade and they’re not afraid of what the floor of what you’re asking for is.”

This is the sense I got from Poles, the unspoken sense: He views this as, potentially, the gift that keeps on giving. Everyone has seen what the Eagles have done in gathering more and more draft capital; last year they traded the 16th and 19th overall picks to the Saints for the 18th pick plus additional picks in the first, second and third rounds.

“No one’s gonna rush me,” Poles said. “I know I can get a ’24 one and a ’25 one. You’re telling me for the next two years I’ll have two ones? That’s either four really good players, or if we’re cruising, we can still trade back.”

Good year to be running the Bears’ draft, for once. Now Poles just has to find the right deal.

This from King on the timing – it could be sooner than later:

Without disclosing many specifics about the process, it’s clear that Poles has enough information to think a trade could come long before the first round kicks off April 27. And making it now would require a huge price.

“Should we do this before free agency? Or should we wait?” he said. “I don’t know. That’s what I’ve communicated [to teams]. I could carry this all the way until we’re on the clock the night of the draft. But then there’s teams that want some certainty because, ‘If I need a quarterback bad, should I do that now when some of these guys, like Derek Carr, are out there?’ To me, they’ve got to go so much more above to do it now.

“I’m not greedy with it. But they’re gonna have to go above and beyond to close the door now.”

It’s crazy this year that there’s not a no-doubt quarterback in the group, yet there could be a frenzy to get to number one. Houston (picking two and 12), Indianapolis (four), Vegas (seven) and Carolina (nine), and possibly Tennessee (11) or Seattle (five), could all engage Poles aggressively. For Poles, and for the recently star-crossed Bears, this pick could plant the first-round seeds for a long-term rebuild. A much-needed one.

NFC EAST

WASHINGTON

Peter King on QB CARSON WENTZ, now a former Commander:

Wentz, before injuring his knee in December 2017 in the Eagles’ Super Bowl season, was a strong contender to win MVP. Today he’s on the street at 30, and no team would consider him as a potential starter in 2023.  His seven-year history, by the numbers:

Money

Philadelphia paid him $79.1 million for five seasons. That included nine postseason snaps.

Indianapolis paid him $21.3 million for one season. He missed practice time in week 17 after testing positive for Covid as an unvaccinated player; with the Colts needing one win in the last two games to make the playoffs, Wentz played poorly in losses to the Raiders and Jags to end the season.

Washington paid him $28.3 million for half a season of uninjured play. Wentz was booed off the field in week 17 when, with the Commanders needing a win for Washington to stay in the playoff hunt, Wentz threw three interceptions in losing to Cleveland.

Totals

Money earned: $128.7 million.

Overall record: 46-46-1.

Playoff wins: 0.

Trade compensation

Including what Philadelphia paid to move up just six slots in the draft in the 2016 first round, here is what the Eagles, Colts and Commanders traded to acquire Carson Wentz:

First-round picks: 3.

Second-round picks: 1.

Third-round picks: 4.

Fourth-round picks: 1.

Altogether: 9 picks, all in the top 100 of drafts, including the eighth, 12th and 17th overall picks in three different drafts.

What was lost

The trades don’t match exactly to make the comparison; for instance, Indy traded Wentz plus a two and a seven to Washington for a two, a three and a three, so I simply eliminated the second- and seventh-round picks from trade comparison. But I figured out the overall pick for each of the nine draft slots traded for Wentz, and I figured out a player drafted in each slot, to see the players Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Washington bypassed to employ Wentz. They are:

DeForest Buckner, Joe Thuney, Matthew Judon, T.J. Watt, Fred Warner, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zion Johnson, Dameon Pierce. (The ninth player will be known this year after the Colts make the 79th overall pick in the draft—the last vestige of the last Wentz trade, from Washington.)

Teams bypassed five first- or second-team all-pros for a player on the street at 30, when Wentz should be in his prime.

Moral of the story

Even though Wentz was on his way to a great season before injuring his knee in 2017, he could never repeat it and in fact regressed. I’d argue that no player in NFL history has cost so much and delivered so little.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Peter King on a motivational ploy upcoming from Sean Payton:

Payton told me he’s going to put an old car front and center in the parking lot so that all players and coaches will see it. He said he’ll have the rearview mirror plus the side mirrors removed from the car. As he said at the Combine, he wants his players and his new organization to look ahead, and not behind, at the nightmare that was the 2022 Broncos season. So if you see a stripped-down old jalopy alongside some very nice vehicles in the Broncos parking lot this season, you’ll know why.

LAS VEGAS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is among those puzzled as to whether or not the Raiders want to be part of the market for QB AARON RODGERS:

The future of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to be a beautiful mystery. Then again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Some would regard the whole thing as a hot mess.

Adding a little heat to the happenings is the question of whether the Raiders are a realistic destination for Rodgers. Vic Tafur of TheAthletic.com has said it’s not likely to happen. The betting markets say otherwise, making the Raiders the prohibitive favorites to get him. Most recently, Dan Graziano ofESPN.com put the Raiders in play for Rodgers.

The broader question is whether Raiders coach Josh McDaniels and Rodgers will click. McDaniels may want to coach Rodgers a lot harder than Rodgers is used to being coached. McDaniels, after years coaching Tom Brady, may not know of any other way to effectively coach a quarterback.

We asked McDaniels at the Scouting Combine whether coaching Brady for so long has ruined other quarterbacks for McDaniels. But Rodgers could be the closest thing to Brady that McDaniels would ever see.

Maybe McDaniels would be willing to tiptoe around a delicate genius. Maybe McDaniels knows that having a delicate genius is better than having no genius at all.

However it plays out, Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Justin Herbert being in the same division remains a possibility.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Peter King, perhaps prompted by one side or the other, tries to play peacemaker between the Ravens and QB LAMAR JACKSON:

Everything about the Lamar Jackson situation is difficult. Everything.

Jackson’s 26, a former Most Valuable Player, beloved in his locker room and well-respected around the league, a cornerstone player in a conference with so many young franchise quarterbacks, the most popular athlete in any sport in his city, and, as a Black player and leader in a city with a 63-percent Black population, is vital to the Ravens’ fan base.

The Ravens absolutely, positively want to keep Jackson—but not entirely on his terms. He is thought to want a fully (or largely) guaranteed contract at the market level of the best-paid quarterbacks, but he has missed 34 percent of the last two seasons with injuries. The Ravens clearly want to be covered for that in case Jackson, who is averaging 10.4 rushes per game in his career, keeps getting hurt.

So it’s a stalemate. By 4 p.m. Tuesday, Baltimore has to decide whether to put one of two franchise tags on Jackson: the non-exclusive tag, which would allow a team to sign Jackson to a long-term offer sheet; if the Ravens didn’t match, Baltimore would get two first-round picks but lose Jackson. The exclusive tag would prevent other teams from negotiating with him, but the Ravens could still trade him. Non-exclusive one-year compensation for Jackson: $32.4 million. Exclusive tag compensation: $45 million.

If a team wants Jackson, it’s disguising its intentions well. I couldn’t find legit evidence of one in Indianapolis, talking to GMs and coaches and other club officials. There may be one (Jets? Falcons?) but I couldn’t find it. And if the Ravens put the non-exclusive tag on Jackson, good luck in forcing him to play in 2023 for $32 million ($4.2 million less than Ryan Tannehill’s slated cap number) after visions of jillions have been dancing in his head.

So what to do? My idea: Baltimore tries to sign Jackson to a short-term guaranteed deal. Maybe two years, $85 million, or three years, $125 million. Or if Jackson is dead-set on eclipsing the $45-million average for Deshaun Watson (I don’t know that he is), Baltimore bites the bullet and makes it two years for $92 million, for example.

Jackson wouldn’t be getting the security he certainly wants. But I don’t see the Ravens doing the full guarantee over five years, the way Cleveland did with Watson. If I’m the team, I want Jackson badly, but not enough to guarantee him his money five years into the future after he’s missed so much time hurt. If the injury trend continues, or gets worse, the team would be spending a fifth of its salary cap, let’s say, on a player not playing. The advantage for Jackson if he signs for two years and plays at his expected level: He’d be a free agent again at age 28, in his absolute prime, and probably able to demand (and get) a contract averaging much more as the cap rises. Say, $65 million a year.

I doubt either side would be happy with this compromise. Jackson wouldn’t be making the big score, and the Ravens would be faced with reliving this nightmare in less than two or three years. But as in most compromises, it’s necessary because neither side finds a deal it likes. This deal, I think both sides could tolerate.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on what the Dolphins are thinking about QB TUA TAGOVIALOA’s future:

The Dolphins can say as often as they want that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is their guy. Until they pick up his guaranteed fifth-year option for 2024 or sign him to a long-term deal, the door remains open for someone else to become the guy.

Josina Anderson of CBS Sports reports that the Dolphins will explore all options at quarterback.

They should. Every team other than the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Eagles, and Chargers should, frankly. If a clear upgrade is available, every team has an obligation to explore all strategies for making that change.

For the Dolphins, potentially available upgrades include Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady (if he unretires for the second straight year), and Lamar Jackson, if the Ravens apply the non-exclusive franchise tag — and if Jackson remains available after the 2023 draft concludes. Because the Dolphins lost their 2023 first-round pick due to tampering with Brady and Sean Payton a year ago, they can’t make a play for Jackson until they once again have two consecutive first-round picks to give. That happens after the 2023 draft.

The Dolphins have plenty of time to decide whether to pick up Tua’s fifth-year option. It gives them time to explore free agency, the draft, and the possibility of making a play for Jackson.

Although the Dolphins are currently saying all the right things about Tua, this is a franchise that wanted to trade for Deshaun Watson in 2021 and tried to land Brady in 2022. Hell, Jimmy Garoppolo has said the Dolphins considered trading for him last year; given what it would have taken to get him from the 49ers and what he was due to be paid, Jimmy G wouldn’t have been QB2 in Miami.

Thus, given that the team consistently has explored all options at quarterback in the past, it’s no surprise that they’ll consider all options at quarterback in the present. And in the future — until they have one of the quarterbacks who are among the small group that can’t be upgraded.

NEW ENGLAND

Jeff Howe of The Athletic on New England’s QB situation:

The 2021 first-round pick is still expected to be the team’s starter next season, with multiple people involved in the situation who were not authorized to speak publicly calling it Jones’ job to lose, but backup Bailey Zappe will at least have a chance to push Jones.

And frankly, that’s the way it should be.

Jones had a strong first season, finishing second in offensive rookie of the year voting, but he struggled along with the rest of the offense in 2022. While Jones isn’t wholly absolved of the blame for the offensive setback, the circumstances around him made it difficult for any quarterback to thrive.

That’s why Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft decided to overhaul the system, as Bill O’Brien was rehired in January as offensive coordinator. It is still undetermined whether Matt Patricia, who led the offense last season, will return to the Patriots in a different capacity or take a job with another organization.

As for Jones, there’s a level of disconnectedness that must be resolved.

Belichick instructed the coaching staff not to be too hard on Jones last season, according to the same sources. If Jones made a mistake or needed to be corrected, instead of yelling at him, the coaching staff generally took a more constructive approach.

That’s atypical. Belichick used to loudly chew out Tom Brady in an attempt to set the tone for the rest of the team. The rationale, Belichick believed, was that if the rest of the players knew Brady was in the coaching crosshairs, no one was untouchable. That ran counter to his approach with Jones.

Still, Jones noted during a news conference last season that he wanted to be coached harder. He also dealt with demanding coaching at Alabama with Nick Saban — with whom he often talked trash during practice — and in high school with Corky Rogers.

Jones has handled hard coaching and adversity in the past, notably sticking it out at Alabama without any guarantees that he’d ever start ahead of higher-ranked recruits on the depth chart. These were well-documented events that were considered positive traits before he was drafted.

So it’s noteworthy that something isn’t adding up. Whatever is off, the Patriots and Jones need each other to be at their best to get back on track and maximize their potential next season.

Now, with a more traditional offensive staff in place, the 2023 season will set the tone for the rest of Jones’ career in New England. However long that might be.

QB BRIAN HOYER won’t be part of that 2023 Patriots season. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

The New England Patriots have informed veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer of their intention to release him before the start of free agency on March 15, league sources confirmed to ESPN on Saturday.

The Patriots have starter Mac Jones and 2022 fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe at quarterback and will likely add at least one more signal-caller this offseason.

Hoyer started one game in 2022, a Week 4 overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers, after Jones had suffered a high ankle sprain the week before. But Hoyer was knocked out of the game with a concussion at the end of the second series. He was 5-of-6 for 37 yards at the time of the injury.

NEW YORK JETS

QB DEREK CARR seems to be inching closer to the Jets.  Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.comtweeted this on Sunday night:

@JFowlerESPN

While the #Panthers and #Saints remain in the conversation for Derek Carr, the former Pro Bowl quarterback has a slight lean toward the #Jets as his next home as of now, per source. Nothing is final, but Jets — who are linked to Aaron Rodgers — have made an impression.

But Fowler also wrote this over the weekend.

Which team will land QB Carr?

Fowler: The New Orleans Saints remain motivated to sign quarterback Derek Carr, who will take his free agency into next week. New Orleans believes it has made a compelling case to Carr, with solid pass-catching targets, a good defense and the chance to play in a dome at least 10 games per season. Carr is prioritizing the right fit, and once he commits to that, a potential contract will be hashed out. Garoppolo could be a viable backup plan for the Saints if things don’t work out.

The New York Jets and Carolina Panthers remain interested in Carr, too, but it’s more complicated with them due to the Jets’ interest in Rodgers and the Panthers’ chance to solve their quarterback position once and for all in the draft (No. 9 overall). Carolina his lurking here, with a follow-up call with Carr early this week. The Panthers are a factor. And at least two other teams have reached out on Carr in recent weeks.

Mike Florio:

Rodgers seems to be the first domino to fall in the veteran quarterback market. The question is whether Carr will wait to see what happens with the Jets, or whether he’ll sign with the Saints and Panthers at a time when the Jets — owned by a Big Pharma heir — will lure a player who not long ago suggested that Big Pharma is the root of the bad things that people in the media are saying about him.

But here is what Peter King is hearing:

The QB dominoes should start falling this week. Best guesses from my GM crowd-sourcing: Derek Carr to the Saints, Aaron Rodgers no one knows, truly (but I’m guessing Jets), Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones franchised, Jimmy Garoppolo being the beneficiary of some QB uncertainty sometime in March.

I don’t see the Raiders being in the Aaron Rodgers derby, if there is one.

– – –

Rich Cimini of ESPN.com tries to explain the Jets’ plan for QB ZACH WILSON.

1. Cloudy future: The Jets are bucking an NFL trend with their plan for quarterback Zach Wilson. Team officials have been steadfast in saying, despite two disappointing seasons, they want to retain and develop Wilson behind a proven starter they have yet to add. General manager Joe Douglas reiterated that stance this week at the scouting combine, saying they “still feel strongly” that Wilson will hit his “very high ceiling.”

Thing is, it’s highly unusual for a highly drafted quarterback to begin his career as a starter and then transition to a long-term backup role on the same team. The last first-round quarterback (taken 16th overall in 2013) to get that treatment was the Buffalo Bills’ EJ Manuel, an opening-day starter in his first two seasons (2013-14) who spent his final two-and-a-half seasons in Buffalo as a backup. It also happened to Robert Griffin III (drafted No. 2 overall in 2012), a three-year starter for Washington before getting a permanent seat on the bench in 2015. Neither player became an established starter elsewhere.

Wilson will be relegated to long-term backup duty if the Jets sign Derek Carr, still young in quarterback years (he turns 32 on March 28). The situation could be different if they trade for the 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers, perhaps a two-year fix, but it’s hardly a guarantee that Wilson would return to a starting role in 2025. By then, he’d be a free agent, assuming his fifth-year option (2025) isn’t exercised. Either way, his future with the Jets appears mostly cloudy.

This week, coach Robert Saleh spoke for the first time of a Jets future that doesn’t include Wilson.

“Whether we bring in a guy who’s in his early 30s and you know he’s going to be here for a while, the focus is to just help [Wilson] get better, as best as he can,” Saleh said. “If his best gets to be showcased here as a New York Jet, awesome. If not, it’s still awesome because all we want is what’s best for him and his development, no different than any other player on our roster.”

There’s a business aspect to this, of course. Right now, Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2021, is a depreciated asset. If his value increases at some point over the next year or so — a promising preseason, perhaps — the Jets can trade him with the hope of recouping at least some of their original investment. That makes more sense than developing him and letting him walk in 2025, receiving no compensation. We’ll know more in the coming weeks as the QB dust settles.

2. Crowded QB room: Saleh indicated the Jets are open to re-signing Mike White, a pending free agent, but White could have better opportunities elsewhere as a clear-cut QB2. That won’t be possible with the Jets as long as Wilson is on the roster.

THIS AND THAT

2023 DRAFT

Well, we knew QB BRYCE YOUNG was small for a QB.  We didn’t know he was QB KYLER MURRAY small.  Donnie Druin of SI.com:

The Arizona Cardinals won’t be selecting Alabama Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young, though he’s fairly similar to their own franchise quarterback in Kyler Murray.

Young – a Heisman trophy winner and CFP national champion – has been the subject of heavy dialogue and conversation despite his talent, play and production. Young’s height and frame typically don’t bode well at the next level, and plenty were curious to see exactly what Young would come in at when he was measured by NFL Combine officials on Saturday.

As it turns out, Young has extremely similar measurables to Murray. 

Murray height: 5′ 10 1/8″

Young height: 5′ 10 1/8″

Murray weight: 207 pounds

Young weight: 204 pounds

Murray hand size: 9 1/2″

Young hand size: 9 3/4″

Murray – who also won the Heisman trophy in college at Oklahoma – is built fairly similar but also a very different quarterback. Murray’s notably quicker, more dangerous as a runner and is able to evade pressure thanks to his agility.

There’s been concerns about Murray’s durability at the next level – and Murray has battled injury at some point through the last three seasons. His inability to read the middle of the field thanks to his height has also hindered him at times.

That’s the life of a quarterback in the prototype of Murray, one built with shortcomings but ultimately not devastating. Murray’s flashed his brilliance on more than one occasion and he’s been rewarded with a handsome contract.

The jury is still out on exactly what Young is capable of doing at the next level, though Murray and other quarterbacks have shown that size doesn’t tell the entire story on the football field.

Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com goes deeper:

As soon as the height and weight digits trickled down Saturday morning for Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, the predictable avalanche of comparison rumbled in behind it.

Standing 5-feet-10 and 1/8th of an inch tall. Weighing in at 204 pounds. Cue the social media jukebox and set it for replay …

Just like Kyler Murray, who registered the exact same height at the NFL combine in 2019 and came in only three pounds heavier.

A lazy comparison?

“Absolutely,” an NFC West talent evaluator told Yahoo Sports.

“That was what we expected,” chimed in another evaluator, who spent significant time canvassing both Young and Murray. “We knew [the similarities] even if fans didn’t.”

In a world of NFL Draft study that is seemingly always seeking road maps for comparison, Alabama’s Young has long seemed destined to fall into the 2019 “Murray conundrum” — a debate that weighs elite level quarterback talent against the risk of sub-optimal size.

Murray shouldered that burden four years ago when the Arizona Cardinals were zeroing in on the former Oklahoma quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick, focusing a portion of their evaluation by mapping him against stature-deficient QBs like now-retired Drew Brees and Russell Wilson.

The end of that road featured Murray being deemed worth the risk of not featuring ideal quarterback size, resulting in his selection with the first pick. Yes, he wasn’t in the league’s QB wheelhouse that falls somewhere around 6-4 and 225 pounds. But Murray’s overall skills were special enough that the Cardinals rolled the dice on him being one of the history-defying outliers.

Now we’re four seasons and a handful of injuries later, and the dice roll on Murray has been met with mixed reviews. Undoubtedly one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers when he’s performing at his peak, the questions dogging Murray now have been about his leadership and inability to play through seasons without some kind of impactful injury. Despite those continued questions, he landed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension, cementing his stature as a player who defines the “outlying” class of quarterbacks. And with that, he joins the class of Brees and Wilson when it comes to pressing Young’s evaluation against historic predecessors.

But as was the case comparing Murray against Brees and Wilson in 2019, evaluators are rolling their eyes at those who are drawing a direct line between Young and Murray.

“Size is the only thing they have in common,” the NFC West evaluator said.

That opinion wasn’t an anomaly, either. Seven evaluators from different teams all expressed some version of the same conclusion: Other than height and weight, Murray and Young have dramatic differences in their game and skill level, including some that favor Murray and others that favor Young. And even when it comes to that size comparison, predicting a similar injury path is tricky at best because teams don’t view them as being built to handle some of the same rigors, either.

“Height and weight isn’t even an accurate [predictor] if you’re debating how you feel about the potential for an injury,” an NFC general manager said. “Drew [Brees] and Russell [Wilson] next to each other — not to knock Drew, but Russell looks like he can take some hits. Drew looks like he’s in competitive cycling. Now put those two next to Cam Newton in a draft. S***, Cam looked like he could have been a defensive end. And everyone would have been wrong about who was going to be durable between those three. Partly because of how each guy played the position. We can’t ignore that. But that’s going to be a similar thing with Bryce Young and Kyler Murray, too.”

Asked to parse out the differences between Young and Murray if they really aren’t similar players beyond their size, there was a consensus on almost every point. Murray was evaluated as a more elite athlete — with a better arm, better athleticism and a more evasive running style. He also is a player who teams believe represented an accurate weight when he came in at 207 pounds in 2019.

“Kyler is more physically gifted across the board,” one AFC general manager said. “Bryce is the more skilled passer and mature person and professional. I think Bryce will be better when he is in the field but I question whether he will hold up from a durability standpoint without elite physical traits to escape. I would bet he didn’t play [at Alabama] at 204. I think he’ll fill in as he gets older later in his career.”

While Murray was seen as the more elite athlete in the evaluations, Young’s leadership appears to be part of the assessment that draws raves that Murray didn’t.

“He’s got leadership skills and character without drama,” one evaluator said. “[Bryce] is also more like Drew Brees in that he plays bigger than his size from the pocket. Watch Bryce’s throwing motion and tell me it doesn’t look more like Drew Brees.”

In that vein, all the evaluators seemed to agree: If Young is going to be realistically compared to anyone, Murray is just noise in the system created by the similarities in weight and height. The better comparison might be removing the two from each other completely.

This story, it seems, is about seeing where Young stacks up against Wilson and Brees, rather than how he fits alongside Murray or any of the quarterbacks in the class of 2023.

As one evaluator put it, “four years from now we might be looking at [Young] like he wasn’t a great comp for anyone before him. He’s probably a little different than all of them.”

Meanwhile, the QB who ticks all the Combine boxes is ANTHONY RICHARDSON of Florida. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson may have done more than any other player to improve his draft stock at the Scouting Combine.

Richardson was outstanding in Indianapolis, and as a result he’s now listed behind Alabama’s Bryce Young in the betting odds to be the first quarterback drafted. Young remains the favorite at -240, but Richardson is now second at +380.

Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud has moved down to third at +430, while Kentucky’s Will Levis is a long shot at +1100. The extreme long shots are Stanford’s Tanner McKee at +7500 and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker at +7500.

How did Richardson do it? By putting on one of the most impressive performances in Scouting Combine history. His vertical jump was the best ever for a quarterback. His broad jump was also the best ever for a quarterback. At 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, with a 40-yard dash time of 4.43 seconds, he would be considered an elite athletic prospect at any position, not just quarterback.

But even more impressive was Richardson’s arm in the throwing drills. Richardson unleashed a series of 60-yard throws that landed in his receivers’ hands. Richardson’s arm talent is remarkable.

Richardson is not a perfect prospect. He completed just 53.8 percent of his passes last season at Florida, and he started just 13 games in his college football career. Completion percentage and games started are two of the college quarterback stats with the best track record for predicting NFL success, and Richardson ranks near the bottom of all the quarterbacks in this year’s draft in both categories.

But some NFL team is going to fall in love with Richardson’s raw talent, make him a first-round pick, and hope to develop him into a franchise starter for years to come.

Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com tries to figure out who the team smitten by Richardson will be:

As many predicted would happen, Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson took over the 2023 NFL Combine. He ranked first among all quarterbacks in height at 6-4 1/4″ and weight (244 pounds), ranked first at the 40-yard dash (4.43) and registered a 40.5″ vertical and 10’9″ broad jump. Yes, those both ranked first among all quarterbacks as well.

The 21-year-old’s 4.43 40-yard dash was the second-fastest 40 time recorded by a first-round quarterback at the NFL Combine since 2006, per ESPN. The 10’9″ broad jump was also an NFL Combine record for a quarterback. The bottom line is that Richardson tore it up, and boosted his draft stock — so much so that he could go No. 1 overall next month.

While Richardson established himself as one of the most intriguing prospects in this class, where would he fit best in the NFL? There’s no doubt he’s a raw quarterback; would he be best suited to sit for a year, or is he a Day 1 starter? Below we break down the top 10 potential landing spots that would serve as the best fits for Richardson.

10. Indianapolis Colts

Former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano said this offseason that Indy needs to stop messing around with these veteran quarterbacks and draft their new signal-caller, and he’s absolutely right. Former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is now in charge, and we saw how Jalen Hurts turned the corner once he took over as play-caller. Maybe the Colts don’t have the best roster in the NFL, but they have a solid defense, one of the best running backs in the league in Jonathan Taylor and a prospective No. 1 wideout in Michael Pittman Jr. CBS Sports NFL Draft expert Chris Trapasso predicted in a recent mock the Colts trade up to No. 1 overall to select Richardson. It could happen.

9. Baltimore Ravens

No one knows what’s going to happen with Lamar Jackson, but it’s possible he’s playing elsewhere in 2023. If that’s the case, Baltimore will have to reevaluate the most important position in football. While the Cam Newton comparisons were inevitable with Richardson, he received some Lamar-like praise as well. In fact, Richardson said he started calling himself “Cam Jackson” in high school. No joke.

We know Richardson can run the ball, and he has a cannon for an arm — even if that cannon needs some polishing. John Harbaugh had a hand in developing a quarterback into a perennial MVP contender. Maybe he could do the same for Richardson. At the same time, losing Jackson would make for an automatic downgrade.

8. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have already decided to part ways with Marcus Mariota, and then Desmond Ridder didn’t exactly light the world on fire in Year 1. Head coach Arthur Smith needs to do something to stay off the hot seat, and landing Richardson could be exactly what the doctor ordered.

For one, Smith comes from Tennessee, where he found success scheming for the run. He’s attempting to do the same in Atlanta, and got Tyler Allgeier to 1,000-plus yards rushing on 4.9 yards per carry in his rookie season. Bringing in a big body like Richardson, who is also a fast player, would fit this offense. Richardson would also have a former Florida weapon to work with in Kyle Pitts, plus Drake London.

7. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been searching for their new franchise quarterback since parting ways with Newton a few years ago. With Frank Reich now in charge, he will be looking for his new quarterback. After what happened in Indy, he understands how important this decision is.

Reich may be one of the best hires from this coaching cycle. Not only does he understand that his new young defense is the “secret sauce” that can serve as the Panthers’ identity, but he also understands that you have to run the ball to be a championship team. Even without Christian McCaffrey for the majority of the season, Carolina finished with the No. 10 overall rushing offense, thanks to D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Carolina could be an ideal landing spot for a young quarterback whose best football days are ahead of him. Plus, the Cam Newton comparisons are right there.

6. Las Vegas Raiders

Maybe the Raiders don’t have the best coaching staff in the NFL, but look at the setup on offense. Josh Jacobs is back in the fold for 2023 with the franchise tag, and then Davante Adams and Darren Waller are under contract. Yes, the AFC West is probably the toughest division in the NFL, but that’s even more of a reason to shoot for the moon with a prospect like Richardson.

5. Washington Commanders

OK, hear me out. The Commanders’ identity remains on the defensive side of the ball, and they have a very solid unit led by one of the best defensive lines in the league. Offensively, while Washington is making progress, it still needs to find that franchise quarterback. Richardson could be that guy.

The Commanders have a talented trio of wideouts in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, two good backs in Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson and now have one of the best offensive coordinators in the league in Eric Bieniemy. The Commanders will be exciting if they can find the right quarterback.

4. Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll showed the NFL world last year that he didn’t need Russell Wilson to be successful, as the Seahawks made the playoffs while the Denver Broncos did not. What I like about this situation in Seattle is that Richardson does not have to play right away. Seattle likes Geno Smith, and the veteran has said things are “looking very good” when it comes to a potential contract extension. It’s entirely possible that Richardson could sit more than one year. Smith gives Seattle that kind of flexibility. The Seahawks are getting better on defense, have a young back with massive potential in Kenneth Walker III and then, of course, D.K. Metcalf.

3. Detroit Lions

The Lions turned the corner last year, as Dan Campbell led the franchise to their first winning record since 2017. Detroit also came close to making the postseason for the first time since 2016, and is clearly on the right track. Campbell likes Jared Goff, but he’s not the “future” at the position. Richardson can sit behind him, learn from the veteran signal-caller as well as offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and then take over with Jameson Williams in a year or two.

2. Minnesota Vikings

While it’s probably unlikely, I think the Vikings would be one of the best landing spots for Richardson. For one, Kevin O’Connell is a young offensive-minded head coach who accomplished plenty in his first NFL season. The Vikings also have a great running back in Dalvin Cook, and then arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. To round it out, Richardson could sit behind Kirk Cousins, and then eventually fill his shoes in what may be a seamless transition.

1. New York Giants

Daniel Jones reportedly wants more than $45 million per year? No thanks. How about franchise-tagging Jones, and drafting an even more athletic quarterback who reminds some of former Wyoming gunslinger Josh Allen? We saw what Brian Daboll did with Allen in Buffalo. Maybe the best landing spot for Richardson is teaming him up with the reigning NFL Coach of the Year in New York. While I’m comfortable saying this will not happen, it’s pretty exciting to think about. Developing Richardson is the most important thing when it comes to examining where he should land.

– – –

At the Combine, RB BIJAN ROBINSON makes the case for his early draft selection, based on being more than a normal running back. Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:

Texas running back Bijan Robinson knows the math may be against him, but he said there should be no hesitation about selecting him early in the first round of the upcoming NFL draft.

Robinson, who won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s best running back, said if it makes the league’s decision-makers feel better, they should just call him a player who can “create mismatches all over the field,” even if it means lining him up at wide receiver.

“First of all, I feel like if you’re a guy who can do all three for your offense, I think that’s a very special quality for a player,” Robinson said Saturday at the NFL scouting combine. “You line a player up at receiver, at slot or, obviously, at running back. Just creating mismatches all over the field and being able to create space for yourself … that’s a high value everybody should look at.”

Robinson, a unanimous All-America selection in 2022, ranks fourth in Longhorns history with 3,410 rushing yards, including 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns this past season. He also led the nation’s running backs in broken tackles.

He is ranked as the No. 6 overall draft prospect by ESPN NFL Draft insider Mel Kiper Jr.

Robinson said he hope he matches the draft fortunes of the New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley, who many have compared him to. Barkley was selected at No. 2 in the 2018 draft — the highest pick for a running back since Reggie Bush was taken No. 2 in 2006.

Many personnel executives in the league believe drafting a running back in the top half of the first round is unwise.

“I don’t want to say it’s unfair. … You just never know on that day where you’re going to go,” Robinson said. “For me, it’s important to keep enjoying the moment. We might get to draft day and some surprise could happen. You just never know.”

Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr., the consensus No. 1 pick by ESPN’s analysts, said earlier this week at the combine that Robinson was the best opposing player he had faced in his career.

“I appreciate him saying that,” Robinson said. “It’s cool to have somebody like that in your corner. … I just feel at the size that I’m at and the things I can do on the field, whether it’s pass catch, line up at receiver, line up at slot. Just pretty much line up anywhere you need me to be; if you can run routes and the next play, line up and run between the tackles.”

Asked about his own evaluation of his play, Robinson invoked the name of Hall of Famer Barry Sanders.

“I’m a knee-bender when I run the ball, and another guy who was a knee-bender was Barry Sanders,” Robinson said. “To try to redirect, to try to be as low to the ground as you can and understand you’ve got to feel defenders and read their shoulders and read angles, to try to break as a many tackles as you can. … I take pride in that.

“… I’m trying to dissect it, trying to create open holes, create lanes for myself no matter what it is, eight in the box, nine in the box, seven in the box. I’m just trying always to find ways.”

– – –

It looks like the fastest player in the draft is a Wolverine.  Legwold:

Michigan cornerback DJ Turner put himself on one of history’s shortest lists at the NFL’s scouting combine Friday, running the 40-yard dash in a blazing 4.26 seconds at Lucas Oil Stadium.

It is the fourth-fastest time in the 40 at the combine since 2003, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

YEAR   PLAYER           40 TIME

2017     John Ross        4.22

2022     Kalon Barnes    4.23

2008     Chris Johnson   4.24

2014     Dri Archer         4.26

2005     Jerome Mathis  4.26

2022     Tariq Woolen     4.26

2023     DJ Turner         4.26

Wide receiver John Ross’ time of 4.22 seconds at the 2017 combine is considered the fastest on record. Minnesota Vikings cornerback Kalon Barnes ran a 4.23 at the combine last year.

Turner, a two-year starter for the Wolverines, was the fastest player in the first of two groups of defensive backs who participated in the on-field workouts Friday. Players are given two attempts at the 40 in each of the combine workouts, but Turner opted not to run the second.

According to Michigan’s GPS tracking system, Turner reached a speed of 23.07 mph this past season.

Turner, who started 14 games for the Wolverines this past season, is ranked No. 155 overall among draft-eligible players by Scouts Inc., and ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller has him as the No. 5 cornerback on the board.

He finished the 2022 season with 36 tackles, 11 pass breakups and an interception. In 2021, Turner played 13 games, starting eight, and had two interceptions.

– – –

Peter King on the odd timing of DT JALEN CARTER’s arrest warrant and the feeling there might be more to it and less to him:

Lots of authorities had the Georgia defensive tackle as the top prospect in the draft entering the Combine. But oddly and perhaps significantly, on the day Carter reported to the Combine, the Athens-Clarke County (Ga.) Police issued an arrest warrant for Carter for reckless driving and racing in connection with the car-accident deaths of a Georgia player and recruiting staffer. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Carter left the scene of the crime and then misled police about the case. Carter left the Combine, turned himself into authorities in Georgia, then returned to the Combine and participated in interviews with teams Thursday night. Why do I question the timing of it all? The accident happened on Jan. 15. Exactly 45 days later, on the day he reported to the signature pre-draft event, the police issued the arrest warrant; Carter’s reputation and draft stock took a major hit. The seriousness of the charge—which Carter denies—could derail Carter’s career if proven. Aside from the legalities, when this happened is just odd. If Carter was highly regarded by the program and the community, would the case have been handled like this, giving him a black eye on the day of his big job interviews instead of three days before or three days after? “You’re not the only one to think that,” one GM told me Friday. “I believe it was absolutely calculated.” This, of course, comes on the heels of ESPN’s Todd McShay saying there were character concerns about Carter. Carter’s history at Georgia will be a story to be followed between now and draft weekend.