The Daily Briefing Monday, March 7, 2022

Peter King thinks the powers that be will resist the siren call of moving the Scouting Combine, an Indianapolis institution, to a more glamorous locale:

The Combine’s locale

On Saturday, the day I left, I asked a major NFL operative what he’d heard about the site of the 2023 combine. “If I were a betting man,” he said, “I’d take Indianapolis for at least one more year. The league knows no one wants to move.”

This influential person was not the only one who told me to stick with Indy for 2023. So here’s my call: The combine stays one more year, at least, in central Indiana.

There’s been an assumption that the NFL Scouting Combine, which has been held in Indianapolis for 36 straight years, is on the way to a more league-lucrative site in Dallas (Jerry Jones is pushing hard for it) or Los Angeles next year. There was a funereal tone of voice for everyone when discussing moving the combine. It’s a universally despised idea. No one has to get in a car here, and on long days, no trek longer than a 12-minute walk is crucial in time management. Anywhere else, it’s a commuter’s convention.

“You watch,” one GM told me. “If the combine moves, you won’t see near the number of coaches here as who come now.”

I asked one coach about that, and he said, “Absolutely right. It’s a huge time-suck for us now. I could see lots of coaches staying away if it moves.”

Here’s why that matters: The NFL needs a TV show. NFL Network needs to focus a camera on John Harbaugh watching workouts when discussion of Ravens comes up. When Daniel Jeremiah is talking about the first pick in the Aidan Hutchinson workout, it would help to see Jags coach Doug Pederson studying the field. So if a bunch of coaches don’t come, the TV studio has fewer stars.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

Peter King says Lions DC Aaron Glenn is closing in on a head coaching job:

When I asked around about Black coach candidates to a few NFL GMs, I heard only one name out of three mouths: Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. A Bill Parcells disciple, Glenn, 49, is a former 15-year NFL corner with 41 career interceptions. He’s a steely, bright guy who players (I’m told) love playing for.

Glenn interviewed for the Saints’ head-coaching job, and GM Mickey Loomis told me he had a great one. The problem there was Dennis Allen, who’d been on the New Orleans staff since 2015 and has choreographed one of the best defenses in the league. Someone was going to overwhelm the Saints to knock out Allen. Glenn came close.

“Aaron will be a head coach in our league,” Loomis told me.

GREEN BAY

The Packers are trying to lockup CB JAIRE ALEXANDER.  Jeremy Bergman ofNFL.com:

As the Green Bay Packers await the return (hopefully) of Aaron Rodgers for 2022, they’re making sure one of their top defensive stars will stay in Wisconsin for years to come.

Green Bay resumed negotiations with star cornerback Jaire Alexander this week on a contract extension, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday during NFL Scouting Combine coverage.

“Usually the extensions take place in the spring or into the summer,” Rapoport explained, “but this is certainly someone the Packers want to keep around for a very long time.”

Alexander, 25, is due $13.3 million in 2022, the final year of his rookie deal.

A first-round pick in 2018, Alexander has lived up to the hype in Green Bay, earning Pro Bowl and second-team All-Pro honors in 2020. Alexander was sidelined for much of the 2021 season with a shoulder injury and played in only five games, including sparingly in the Packers’ Divisional Round defeat to San Francisco.

Alexander was Brian Gutekunst’s first selection as Packers general manager, and the exec surely wants to reward the corner with a deserving deal before he even sniffs free agency. But the Packers, packed tightly against the cap, have Rodgers, impending free agent Davante Adams and other pressing matters to worry about ahead of the new league year.

If and when the Packers do extend Alexander, the defensive back should rank among the top five at his position, between Darius Slay’s $16.7 million per year and Jalen Ramsey’s position-pacing $20 million on average. Patriots’ soon-to-be free agent J.C Jackson is also angling for a top of the market deal. Should he get one in free agency before Alexander strikes green and gold, the Packers CB could have greater leverage on his hands.

– – –

Here is the take of Peter King on the pursuit of AARON RODGERS:

Lots of stealth around Aaron Rodgers

I saw Matt LaFleur walk into a meeting with one of Rodgers’ reps in a room at the JW on Wednesday afternoon and stay for maybe 30 minutes. Lots of cloak-and-dagger here about Rodgers, of course. LaFleur left here on Friday to go to left tackle David Bakhtiari’s weekend wedding in California—and certainly saw Rodgers, one of Bakhtiari’s best friends, there. Will-Rodgers-or-won’t-he is the biggest story out there. And whether to stay in Green Bay, ask for a trade or retire (one of the first two is more probable) likely will come in the next nine days, by the time the 2022 league year begins. There’s one narrative out there that Rodgers will make his call by Tuesday’s franchise-tag deadline, but I don’t know why that matters. The Packers are very likely to franchise another good Rodgers pal, wideout Davante Adams, whether the QB stays or goes.

If Rodgers goes, I still think it’s to an AFC team. And as I wrote in December, Denver is most likely. The Broncos are most desperate and will pay the Packers a boatload of picks and at least one good player for the 38-year-old QB. And Rodgers would be reunited with his ex-offensive coordinator, new Denver coach Nathaniel Hackett.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on the complications the Giants face if they try to trade RB SAQUON BARKLEY:

The status of running back Saquon Barkley, the second pick in the 2018 draft, remains uncertain. Not long after comments from new G.M. Joe Schoen put Barkley in play for a trade, a report emerged that the Giants aren’t likely to trade him.

Barkley’s status is complicated by his fully-guaranteed salary of $7.2 million, the amount of his fifth-year option. Anyone who trades for Barkley would be assuming that cash obligation and cap figure.

And so the question becomes whether the Giants would pay some of the salary in order to facilitate a trade. In recent years, it has become an increasingly common device for unloading contracts that don’t reflect a player’s current market value, with his present team funding a chunk of the compensation in exchange for whatever the new team will surrender, typically in the form of draft picks.

The new team gets the player at a more palatable number. The old team gets some cash/cap relief and something tangible for the contract that has been shipped to a new team.

Given the broader running back market and Barkley’s injury history, no one will be lining up to take on a one-year, $7.2 million deal. They’d surely only do it for something much less. Even then, how much would they give up?

Running backs are plentiful, in every draft class. Unless a team believes Barkley will be ready to become once again the player he was early in his career, why give up, say, a fifth-round pick that could become a young running back who would arrive with a cheap (relatively speaking) contract and full tread on his tires?

It’s not Barkley’s fault that the Giants mistakenly made such a significant draft-pick investment in him. The move caused him to arrive in New York with unrealistic expectations. Given the very high risk of injury inherent to the position, picking a running back so high in today’s NFL almost always sets him up for failure, or at least the perception of it.

Barkley clearly has talent. He generated more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, starting every game. He then rushed for 1,003 yards in 2019, missing three due to injury.

Next came a torn ACL early in 2020 and a sluggish fourth season in 2021, with only 593 yards rushing in 13 games.

Could he land somewhere and have a great 2022 campaign? Absolutely. But $7.2 million is more to invest in the position than the realities of NFL economics for tailbacks would justify.

Thus, if a trade is going to happen, the Giants undoubtedly will be paying some of that money. They may end up paying all of it, and hoping that Barkley can turn the clock back to 2018.

In the grand scheme of things, it’s not that long ago. Within the confines of the life cycle of an NFL running back, it’s often an eternity.

NFC WEST

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Adam Maya of NFL.com says the EDGE VON MILLER and the Rams could get back together again.

Von Miller closed out the season proving there’s still good tread on his tires. There’s a real chance his football ride will continue in Los Angeles.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday that there is mutual interest in Miller returning to the Rams. While the future Hall of Famer is expected to command a big payday, Rapoport noted that L.A. intends to do everything it can to bring him back.

The Rams just won’t be the only team making Miller an offer. Ahead of Super Bowl LVI, NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reported the veteran outside linebacker was open to re-signing but wanted to fully explore the open market first. The soon-to-be 33-year-old has never been a free agent before.

His brief time in L.A. has already proven to be mutually beneficial. The Rams traded second- and third-round picks to the Broncos midway through this past season and it paid almost immediate dividends. After working his way back from an ankle injury, Miller recorded five sacks and eight tackles for loss over the final four regular-season games. In the playoffs, he added four more sacks and six tackles for loss while forming a devastating pass-rush duo alongside Aaron Donald.

The Rams couldn’t have more motivation to sign the star defender. A few days after their Super Bowl triumph, Donald addressed retirement rumors by declaring he wanted Miller and Odell Beckham back to ensure his own return.

“We bring everybody back, I’m back,” Donald said.

The best defensive player of the past decade is expected to be either way. Though Donald has not yet firmly committed to playing in 2022, Rapoport reported that the Rams believe he will. They’re taking a proactive approach to secure as much, holding discussions with Donald about a raise despite three years left on his current deal.

Coach Sean McVay called that initiative an “incredibly high priority” earlier this week, along with an extension for Matthew Stafford, adding that he anticipates the two players coordinating with the front office to carve out agreements that will help the franchise remain as competitive as possible.

Rapoport reported that there’s still work to do before Donald’s new deal is finalized, but it’s expected to happen, and it’s created momentum toward his return. That, in turn, creates momentum toward the reigning champs running it back.

SEATTLE

The Seahawks have turned down a robust offer for QB RUSSELL WILSON. Adam Maya of NFL.com:

The Commanders believe they’re a quarterback away from contention. The Seahawks are not partnering in that pursuit.

Washington offered multiple first-round picks for star Russell Wilson, but the proposition didn’t go anywhere, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Friday at the NFL Scouting Combine. Earlier this week, Seattle coach Pete Carroll insisted the team has “no intention” of trading the perennial Pro Bowler.

The Commanders have every intention of acquiring an upgrade at the sport’s most important position. The club has made calls throughout the league in hopes of striking a deal, Rapoport added. Coach Ron Rivera noted this week that Washington is doing its homework on the current class of free agents and draft prospects. But with a roster featuring promise at most positions aside from the top one, adding a franchise QB is the preference.

AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY

This from ESPN.com:

The Kansas City Chiefs are putting their franchise tag on offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr., league sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Brown, 25, becomes the first free-agent-to-be this offseason known to be getting the franchise tag. The deadline for teams to designate franchise players is Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.

Brown joined the Chiefs last year in a trade with the Baltimore Ravens and started all 16 games of Kansas City’s regular-season games along with three postseason contests at left tackle. He was selected to the Pro Bowl for the third time in his career.

Brown, whose father, Orlando, was a longtime NFL offensive tackle, was a third-round draft pick by the Ravens in 2018. In three seasons with Baltimore, he started 52 games in the regular season and playoffs, mostly at right tackle.

Brown wanted to play left tackle, but that position with the Ravens was occupied by Ronnie Stanley, so he asked for a trade to a team that would play him at left tackle.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

WR MIKE WILLIAMS is apparently going to be tagged.  Adam Beasley ofProFootballNetwork.com:

The Los Angeles Chargers want to stay in business with standout wide receiver Mike Williams, one of the biggest downfield targets in the game.

Williams, a 6-foot-4, 218-pound former Clemson standout and first-round draft pick, is expected to be assigned a $19.127 million franchise tender by Tuesday afternoon’s NFL deadline with no contract extension imminent, per league sources not authorized to speak publicly.

Although the Chargers intend to not allow Williams to go to free agency, another AFC West rival is looming to make a run at him should he be available.

The Kansas City Chiefs are among multiple teams with interest and research into Williams should he become an unrestricted free agent heading into March 16, the official day of the free agency signing period. The Chiefs envision having another dangerous wide receiver to work in tandem with Tyreek Hill, a speedy six-time Pro Bowl selection who’s negotiating with Kansas City on an extension expected pay to him in the neighborhood of $21.25 million annually, if not more, sources tell PFN’s Aaron Wilson.

Williams, 27, caught a career-high 76 passes for 1,146 yards and 9 touchdowns on 129 targets last season, emerging as quarterback Justin Herbert’s go-to guy. Williams wants to stay with the Chargers, too.

He told Los Angeles reporters at the end of the season he wanted to not leave the Chargers, saying: “I would like to, I don’t like changes. I have lifelong friendships here.”

Williams, if he got a new contract, would likely seek a raise on the $15.68 million fifth-year option he played under last season.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

In theory, teams should like to have a player who represents himself in contract negotiations.  But Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com says the Ravens aren’t thrilled with that happening with QB LAMAR JACKSON:

Last year, the Ravens were reticent when it came to discussing the failure of quarterback Lamar Jackson to engage the team in contract negotiations. (As of Week One last year, it was suggested that he’s too “immersed” in football to negotiate. Which was all the more reason to hire someone else to negotiate the deal. Especially with the Ravens losing one player after another to torn ACLs during the most recent training camp and preseason.)

This year, the Ravens already have opted for measured candor when it comes to pointing out that they’re ready, willing, and able to work something out. Jackson, who clearly isn’t too focused on football in early March to negotiate, still hasn’t engaged them.

Jackson’s approach is either strategic or misguided. Last year, the situation became simplified after the Bills signed Josh Allen to a long-term deal that pays out $43 million per year. Based on the terms and structure of the Allen contract, Jackson should have asked the Ravens for the exact same contract, and he should have refused to play until he got it.

Instead, Jackson proceeded without a new deal. Between illnesses and injuries and the struggles of the team, he arguably has hampered his leverage.

Jackson now enters his option year. By rule, he’ll get $23 million. It’s a nice bump over the slotted four-year deal that paid out $9.5 million to the 32nd overall pick in the draft, but it’s not close to what he’s worth. Next year, if the Ravens apply the franchise tag, Jackson will get between $30 million and $35 million. In 2024, he’d get a 20-percent increase over the first tag for his second tag.

This approach, whether Jackson is intending the outcome or not, would force the Ravens to give him a 44-percent raise over his 2024 salary under the franchise tag or a 20-percent raise over his 2024 salary under the transition tag, which would give the Ravens only a right to match any offer sheet he signs elsewhere.

Some think this is the method to the apparent madness. That Jackson, without the benefit of a seasoned and savvy agent, is deciding to eschew long-term offers and put in seven years with the Ravens before hitting the open market and picking his next destination.

While the one-year-at-a-time approach can indeed work for quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson’s physical, run-heavy style significantly enhances the risk that, by the time 2025 rolls around, Jackson will be too banged up to break the bank.

Whatever Jackson does, he would benefit from the advice of one of the top quarterback agents. (I won’t name any for risk of having my phone blown up by whoever gets omitted.) As a former league MVP, Jackson can hire any agent he wants. Why not simply line up meetings with five of the top quarterback agents, if only to pick their brains about what approach they’d recommend?

It’s entirely possible that Jackson has consciously decided to ignore any and all overtures by the Ravens in order to get to the open market and pick his next team. And we fully support any approach that pushes back against the system and gets players what they deserve. As best we can tell, however, the Ravens are willing to give him what he deserves. At a minimum, it’s too early to know whether they will or they won’t, because Jackson won’t engage in the back-and-forth that either will, or won’t, result in a deal.

At some point, the Ravens may decide to protect themselves. Tyler Huntley, undrafted in 2020, is an exclusive-rights free agent in 2020. While the term necessarily means “not a free agent at all,” what if the Ravens decide to offer Huntley a real contract, a multi-year deal that pays him well to be the understudy to Jackson? If Jackson isn’t going to give the Ravens the long-term answer they want at the quarterback position, it would be smart for the Ravens to ensure that Huntley will be ready to go, if Jackson eventually is gone.

Jackson went on LeBron James’ The Shop and Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com files this report:

In his four NFL seasons, Lamar Jackson has started 53 games, including four in three trips to the postseason, won 38 of those starts, reached two Pro Bowls, been named a first-team All-Pro and earned AP Most Valuable Player honors in 2019.

But the Baltimore Ravens quarterback, still just 25 years old, says he has room for improvement as opponents start to get a grip on his game.

“Lately, since I’ve been in the league, defenses have been changing,” Jackson said recently on UNINTERRUPTED’s The Shop. “They don’t play me like they play other defenses. I’ve got to get ready for a dog fight every game. They’re going to play their best.”

The numbers bear out the QB’s claims. Jackson, an unparalleled dual-threat pro, has seen his interception totals steadily increase over the years — he threw 13 picks to just 16 TDs in 2021 — and he rushed for just 767 yards last season, a high mark among QBs but subpar for Lamar. Jackson also missed five games last year due to illness and a bone bruise in his ankle.

Asked by co-host Maverick Carter what he wants to change about his play to get back on track heading into his fifth year in the league, Jackson replied, “My approach. My mindset. Just a lot maturer. I felt like I was a little immature, not in a bad way, but just like …”

If Baltimore is to reap the benefits of a more mature Jackson going forward, then the two sides will have to work out a contract extension before the start of the 2023 league year. Jackson is entering the final season of his rookie deal and set to earn $23.1 million, his first big NFL payday courtesy of Baltimore making the easy call to pick up his fifth-year option. But after this year, Jackson is not under contract, and as of this week, he and the Ravens have not made progress on a new deal.

Baltimore general manager Eric DeCosta told reporters at the NFL Scouting Combine that the Ravens were hopeful to strike a pact with Jackson, but that it was up to the QB to come to the table.

“We’ve discussed this at length and I’ve said this before: We will work at Lamar’s urgency,” DeCosta said Wednesday. “He and I have had ongoing discussions. We’ve talked fairly recently as well. He knows how to find me; I know how to find him. I was very happy to see him working out on the West Coast recently with some of our guys. That’s exciting. Something that we really think will help us this year be the very best team we can be.

“He’s a guy that when we think about the Ravens three, four, five years from now, we envision Lamar being a very, very big part of that team and definitely a player that can help us win Super Bowls.”

A Super Bowl title is also on Jackson’s mind. The Ravens have made the postseason thrice under his leadership, but have won just one game and yet to make it past the Divisional Round. Jackson envisions a championship for himself in the future, as well as success off the field.

Asked what lessons he takes from NBA legend LeBron James, who co-hosts The Shop, Jackson said, “Everything. Being a champion. I feel like that’s the one thing I wanna take from him, if anything else. Being a champion and being a billionaire.

“That’s just what I’ve been thinking about since I was a little kid. Being a billionaire and being a champion.”

Whether Jackson will become either or both with the Ravens remains to be seen.

CINCINNATI

S JESSIE BATES is heading towards a game of tag says Chris Rolling of USA TODAY:

Not that it should come as much of a shocker, but it indeed sounds like the Cincinnati Bengals and star safety Jessie Bates will have to settle on the franchise tag for now.

Teams have until March 8 to apply the franchise tag to players, so time continues to run out for the two sides.

Saturday, USA Today’s Tyler Dragon reported that the Bengals are “likely” to use the franchise tag on Bates while they continue to work on a long-term extension.

That’s been the expectation for a little while now with the tag deadline looming. Had the two sides been closer, there wouldn’t be any point in delaying a signing of an extension.

A franchise tag for a safety would check in at roughly $13.5 million on a one-year deal. The Bengals have roughly $49 million in free cap as of this writing.

Barring a last-second agreement on something long-term, the Bengals aren’t going to let Bates test the free-agent market and will apply the tag.

Rolling also hears the Bengals are in on the bidding for two of the top free agent offensive linemen:

The Cincinnati Bengals have continuously sounded like a team all-in on fixing the offensive line this offseason.

That includes coaches talking about the idea of moving Jonah Williams around to a different spot. It has included big names in the front office talking about trades. And it has included reports that they’re linked to two of the biggest free-agent names out there.

While soaking in the scouting combine, ESPN’s Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler mentioned the Bengals alongside San Francisco 49ers guard Laken Tomlinson:

“He’s emerging as a top guard available and could spark a bidding war closer to free agency. The Bengals, Panthers, Vikings, Steelers, Jets and Seahawks are among teams that will be in the guard market. Austin Corbett is also a buzzworthy name just below Tomlinson.”

Tomlinson, for what it’s worth, is mentioned in a section dubbed “free agents whose new deals might surprise you.”

Now 30 years old, Tomlinson might just fall into that category, too — he allowed just two sacks over 1,094 snaps last year.

The writeup also mentioned the Bengals alongside Tampa Bay Buccaneers center Ryan Jensen:

“One player I expect to generate a lot of interest on the free-agent market is center Ryan Jensen, who has the attention of the Jets, Bengals, Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, among others.”

Jensen could end up being one of the most expensive free agents on the market outright, but he’d be a bonafide veteran upgrade at an important spot.

AFC EAST

MIAMI

Peter King on how San Francisco’s playoff run cost the Dolphins in the 2022 draft:

The Eagles have the 15th pick in the first round. The Dolphins have the 29th. It could have been reversed.

Before the draft last year, Miami traded up from 12th overall to get the sixth pick—to take receiver Jaylen Waddle, as it turned out—and Philadelphia acquired a first-round pick in 2022 in return. But Miami had two first-round picks in ’22. Which one would be sent?

Miami had its 2022 first-rounder, and one from San Francisco in the trade the Niners made to draft Trey Lance third overall. Last spring, I talked to both GM Chris Grier and then-coach Brian Flores, and I was left with the distinct impression that Eagles GM Howie Roseman was insistent that the Eagles have their choice of the two Miami 2022 first-rounders. Miami was coming off a 10-6 season in 2020; injury-riddled San Francisco went 6-10. Roseman obviously had to decide which team would be picking higher in the ’22 draft. It was a guess, but he wanted the Dolphins pick. He figured San Francisco would have a better season in 2021 and thus pick lower.

So Miami sent its own 2022 pick to Philly to complete the deal. In some ways, I assumed then, the trade was right up Flores’ alley. Now he’d get to go out and prove his was the team on the rise. My guess is Flores was confident Miami would be better than San Francisco in 2021, and the Miami pick would be lower in the first round in ’22 than the Niners’ pick.

It was close. Miami was 9-8 and San Francisco 10-7, but the Niners made the playoffs and went all the way to the NFC title game. That gave them the 29th overall pick. Miami, out of the playoffs, would pick 15th. Think about the difference made by one regular-season win and some playoff success. Huge.

Roseman gets his share of guff as Eagles GM, and some is deserved. But by apparently holding firm on which pick he wanted a year later, his call was prescient. A 14-spot difference in the first round is big. Think of it this way: The well-worn NFL Draft Trade Value chart places a point value on each pick for the purpose of evaluation trades. Look at these numbers:

Value of 15th pick: 1,050 points.

Value of 29th pick: 640 points.

Difference: 410 points.

So, 410 points is the exact value of the 49th overall pick in the draft. Some recent 49th picks: Chase Claypool, Dallas Goedert, Max Unger, DeSean Jackson.

That’s value. Now the Eagles have the 15th (via Miami), 16th (via Indianapolis) and 19th picks and control the middle of a first round that’s not great at the top. (It’s possible Philly could try to trade down and acquire a prime pick in the second round.) The Eagles would have had less control with only two picks in the middle of the first round instead of three. Philly projected right on the trade, and it could pay off in April.

THIS AND THAT

FREE AGENCY DEPTH

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com on tight end, cornerback and safety – the three deepest positions in free agency:

Deepest positions in 2022 free agency

Tight ends

Stars (1): Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)

Starters (6): Tyler Conklin (Vikings), Zach Ertz (Cardinals), Gerald Everett (Seahawks), Mike Gesicki (Dolphins), Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), C.J. Uzomah (Bengals)

Regulars (17): Jordan Akins (Texans), Mo Alie-Cox (Colts), Blake Bell (Chiefs), Jared Cook (Chargers), Will Dissly (Seahawks), Eric Ebron (Steelers), Evan Engram (Giants), Anthony Firkser (Titans), O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Hayden Hurst (Falcons), Tyler Kroft (Jets), David Njoku (Browns), James O’Shaughnessy (Jaguars), MyCole Pruitt (Titans), Ricky Seals-Jones (Commanders), Durham Smythe (Dolphins), Geoff Swaim (Titans)

Returning from injury (2): Robert Tonyan (Packers), Maxx Williams (Cardinals)

Possible cap casualties (3): Jack Doyle (Colts), Blake Jarwin (Cowboys), Kyle Rudolph (Giants)

In a league often desperate for playable tight ends, this is arguably the deepest class of free agents at the position in NFL history. There’s a remarkable number of tight ends who would qualify as average or above-average regulars, which is going to allow teams to reshape their offenses accordingly. The Patriots had to pay above the odds to land Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last offseason; teams will probably be able to land a similarly productive duo of tight ends at a cheaper cost this month.

What’s notable is the depth in terms of pass-catching tight ends with high-end physical traits. This market was thin enough a couple of years ago for the Bears to give Jimmy Graham a two-year, $16 million pact. Now, at least on paper, teams will be able to sort through Gesicki, Schultz, Ertz, Engram, Cook, Ebron, Dissly, Njoku, Seals-Jones and Gronkowski, who was fourth in the league in yards per route run (2.25) last season. There are pass-catchers available at nearly every tier.

The question is whether the top of the market will actually arrive. Gronkowski has hinted at continuing his career without Tom Brady, but when you consider that 615 of his 621 career catches have come on passes by Brady, his future is definitely up in the air. It’s also unclear whether Gronkowski will be willing to sign at the beginning of free agency, leaving teams chasing one of the best tight ends in league history in a bind. Does a team wait in the hopes of landing Gronk, or act at the beginning of free agency to land a starter?

Gesicki, who is really a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end, might be hit with the franchise tag. The same could be true for Schultz, who has gone from backing up Blake Jarwin to a difference-maker in two seasons. Schultz ranks seventh among tight ends in receiving yards (1,423) and sixth in receiving touchdowns (12) over the past two seasons. A good chunk of that production came with Dak Prescott sidelined by injury, but he was also playing in an offense with devastating talent at wide receiver. If the Cowboys let Schultz walk, a team is going to run a big offer past him. Could he top Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews and take home a four-year, $60 million deal? And if Schultz is in line for an average salary of $15 million per year, should the Cowboys franchise him for $10.8 million and try to explore the trade market? A tag might be even more likely with Amari Cooper reportedly a cut candidate.

The other interesting element here is seeing what the flood of free agents does to the tight end market. By the three-year new money measure I use to estimate contract value, the tight end market is toward the bottom of the positional value spectrum. Only kickers, punters, fullbacks and long-snappers get paid less than similarly valued tight ends. The top of the market got a long-overdue correction when Travis Kelce and George Kittle got new deals in 2020, but the contracts for the middle class at tight end are still surprisingly cheap.

Will we see a race for the top players lead to a new salary structure, or will the sheer depth available at the position keep down contracts? It might be telling that Ian Thomas, who would have been alongside many of the rotation players listed above, signed a three-year, $16.5 million extension with the Panthers before free agency began. An average annual value of $5.5 million simply isn’t much for a full-time starter in 2022.

Teams that need to act in the tight end market

Let’s start in Jersey. The Giants and Jets are both about to lose their starters in Engram and Kroft, respectively. Both have young quarterbacks they’ve vowed to help. Engram, who was supposed to be an asset on paper, struggled to stay healthy and catch the football. It’s difficult to see him returning to New York. The Jets are set at wideout with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, so this is the logical place for them to add a third receiver for Zach Wilson.

The Titans are basically starting over at tight end, with Swaim, Firkser and Pruitt all free agents. Mike Vrabel’s team has a particular need for players at the position, given that it ran the fourth-most snaps in football with two or more tight ends on the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans brought back at least one of their tight ends and/or addressed the position in the draft, but they need to replenish a position where they usually like to operate in bulk.

In Arizona, the Cardinals have to evaluate whether their cap situation will allow them to bring back Ertz, who caught 56 passes for 574 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games after joining via trade in October. Ertz seemed to be fading over his last season-plus in Philadelphia, but the 31-year-old was seventh in receiving yards and yards per target and eighth in yards per route run after his move out West. He still looks to have enough in the tank to justify one more multiyear deal. I wonder if the Seahawks might attempt to steal a player from their divisional rivals.

Cornerbacks

Stars (2): Carlton Davis (Buccaneers), J.C. Jackson (Patriots)

Starters (7): Stephon Gilmore (Panthers), Joe Haden (Steelers), Casey Hayward Jr. (Raiders), Steven Nelson (Eagles), Patrick Peterson (Vikings), Levi Wallace (Bills), Charvarius Ward (Chiefs)

Regulars (12): Robert Alford (Cardinals), Bryce Callahan (Broncos), Justin Coleman (Dolphins), Kyle Fuller (Broncos), Chris Harris Jr. (Chargers), Donte Jackson (Panthers), Desmond King (Texans), Xavier Rhodes (Colts), Richard Sherman (49ers), Darious Williams (Rams), K’Waun Williams (49ers), P.J. Williams (Saints)

Returning from injury (1): Jason Verrett (49ers)

Possible cap casualties (4): Byron Jones (Dolphins), Bradley Roby (Saints), Trae Waynes (Bengals)

Unlike the top of the tight end class, there seems to be more of a chance that the best free-agent cornerbacks on paper will actually hit the market in a couple of weeks. Davis is one of several key free agents the Buccaneers might consider franchising, but if they instead opt to franchise wide receiver Chris Godwin, Davis could be a free agent. The Patriots have also let key defensive players test the market without a tag in years past, so while they could still bring back Jackson, opposing teams might have a real shot at signing a corner with 17 interceptions over the past two seasons.

From there, the cornerback market generally splits into two groups. One consists of veterans whose names might be bigger than their expected level of future play. Gilmore, Haden and Peterson were among the best corners in football during their respective peaks, but they’re on the wrong side of 30. Sometimes, as good as these guys are, teams aren’t willing to pay for post-peak corners, with the Chargers’ deal for Harris a couple of years ago as a good example. In some cases, it’s more about finding an effective role for a particular player, as the Colts did when they signed Rhodes and let him play zone more frequently than he did in Minnesota.

The other class consists of slot corners, with Callahan, Coleman, Fuller, Harris, K’Waun Williams and P.J. Williams competing for opportunities. We’ve seen teams continue to move their top wideouts into the slot more often in recent years, and with defenses living in their nickel packages as a default, the slot corner role is more valuable than it has ever been. At the same time, that has led to some ugly contracts, with Coleman’s deal with the Lions as a recent example. Many of these players will likely settle for one-year deals, with K’Waun Williams as a potential exception.

Most of the younger options at corner outside of the top two are players with question marks. Darious Williams is coming off his worst season as a starter. Wallace has been a corner teams have targeted for years in Buffalo, in part because they haven’t wanted to go after Tre’Davious White. Jackson got off to a solid start as a rookie but then never seemed to take that next step in Carolina. Ward is coming off a statistically impressive season with the Chiefs in which he allowed a 79.4 passer rating in coverage, but opinions on his actual level of play vary wildly around the league.

Teams that need to act in the corner market

In the way that baseball teams always need more pitching and hockey teams always need more defensemen, every NFL team wants to be deep at cornerback. If we look at the teams that need help the most, though, a handful come to mind. I’ll start with the Vikings, who are set to lose Peterson and Mackensie Alexander and don’t seem to have anybody left on the roster who Mike Zimmer trusted a year ago. Cameron Dantzler has posted solid numbers and should be in line for one starting spot, but Minnesota will be looking to add at least two corners for new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell.

The 49ers have dealt with injuries and a lack of investment at cornerback, which is why they had to turn to Josh Norman as a full-time starter and Dre Kirkpatrick as a part-time player for stretches in 2021. Third-rounder Ambry Thomas, who was picked on throughout the season, will likely come back as a starter, and veteran Emmanuel Moseley will be in the mix, although injuries have been a consistent problem. The other spots are up for grabs, as Norman, Verrett and K’Waun Williams are all free agents.

Former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh might look to bring K’Waun Williams to the Jets, who sorely need a veteran or two to supplement Bryce Hall and Michael Carter. The Seahawks were cycling through options a year ago and might want to upgrade on Sidney Jones, who is a free agent after his return to the Pacific Northwest. The Cardinals finally got Alford on the field after two years on injured reserve, but he’s a free agent, and rookie Marco Wilson didn’t play well enough to guarantee his starting spot in 2022.

The Steelers were one of the league’s deepest teams at corner as recently as a couple of years ago, but Artie Burns took a step backward, Mike Hilton left for the Bengals, Steven Nelson was released and 2019 third-rounder Justin Layne has barely seen the field. With Haden a free agent and their first-round pick likely ticketed toward an offensive lineman or quarterback, the Steelers might look toward a veteran addition at cornerback, although they might wait until after June 1.

Like Pittsburgh, the Colts prefer to draft and develop, but they might not have a choice. Kenny Moore is one of the league’s best slot corners, but Rhodes is a free agent and second-rounders Quincy Wilson and Rock Ya-Sin haven’t developed into quality starters. Ya-Sin might get one more shot out of sheer necessity in 2022, but with picks missing from the Carson Wentz trade, the Colts have little choice but to head into free agency for cornerback help this offseason.

Then, there’s the AFC West. The Raiders found a useful slot corner in rookie fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs, but Hayward was a one-year fill-in and Trayvon Mullen missed most of 2021 with injuries. I wonder if new coordinator Patrick Graham might try to convince his new organization to trade for James Bradberry, who could be traded by the Giants. The Chiefs also need corners with Ward and Mike Hughes hitting free agency, but given what we’ve seen the past few years, expect general manager Brett Veach to pursue guys with intriguing physical traits and hope to land on a starter.

Safeties

Stars (2): Jessie Bates (Bengals), Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs)

Starters (6): Terrell Edmunds (Steelers), Devin McCourty (Patriots), Justin Reid (Texans), Jaquiski Tartt (49ers), Marcus Williams (Saints), Xavier Woods (Vikings)

Regulars (8): Duron Harmon (Falcons), Anthony Harris (Eagles), Kareem Jackson (Broncos), Damontae Kazee (Cowboys), Jayron Kearse (Cowboys), D.J. Reed (Seahawks), Daniel Sorensen (Chiefs), Jordan Whitehead (Buccaneers),

Returning from injury (3): Quandre Diggs (Seahawks), Marcus Maye (Jets), Jabrill Peppers (Giants)

Possible cap casualties (4): Landon Collins (Commanders), Eddie Jackson (Bears), Eric Murray (Texans), Logan Ryan (Giants)

At safety, the top of the market might fall somewhere between its two predecessors. I don’t think the Bengals can let Bates leave after a postseason in which he had two interceptions and created a third. On a defense where so many players are smart, sound and play better than their measurables would suggest, he is the most prominent example. He didn’t have his best season before the playoff run, but Bates will likely be retained, either via the franchise tag or on a long-term deal.

Mathieu’s future seems less clear, especially after the Chiefs used the franchise tag on left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. I don’t think they could have hoped for much more when they signed Mathieu to a three-year, $42 million deal in 2019, given that he played at a high level throughout his tenure, intercepted 13 passes and didn’t miss a single game as a result of a football injury. (He was held out of a meaningless Week 17 game in 2020 and missed the opener in 2021 after a stint on the COVID-19 list.) At 30, though, will Kansas City be willing to commit one more big-money deal for the heart and soul of its defense? Or will a team hoping to get a similar boost add Mathieu?

There are plenty of players who also might fit on the line between star and starter. McCourty has been a star over the past several seasons, and the only reason he’s not included in that group moving forward is age. The 34-year-old might be choosing between only the Patriots and retirement. Williams, who was franchised by the Saints last year, is one of the best pure free safeties in the league. New Orleans probably can’t afford to franchise the 25-year-old for the second consecutive offseason, but he could come back on an extension with a team-friendly structure.

Reid and Edmunds are also going to be interesting, given that they each just turned 25. Edmunds might suffer a bit because teams will see a former first-round pick the Steelers don’t seem interested in re-signing, but he is a solid box safety if you view him independent of his draft pedigree. Reid might actually benefit from suffering through the past couple of years with the Texans, who suspended him for a game in 2021. Better-run organizations with something to play for might think they can get more out of Reid than Houston.

Finally, the players coming back from injury are interesting. Maye tore an Achilles in midseason, and the Jets likely franchised him last year in part because they didn’t have any other candidates. The 28-year-old has exhibited the range to play both safety spots and actually pieced together his best season after Jamal Adams was traded. Maye and Peppers can be useful players, especially for defenses who want to live in light boxes.

Teams that need to act in the safety market

Let’s start in the NFC East. Both starting safeties for the Cowboys and Eagles are free agents, while the Commanders are likely to cut Collins, who was moved to linebacker last season. Kam Curl will fill one starting spot for Washington, but that still leaves a minimum of five safety spots available within the division. I’ll be watching the Eagles closely because general manager Howie Roseman had a track record of spending up at safety in years past before giving corner Darius Slay a big contract.

Guess which team went three-for-three at the top of this column? The Jets are even worse off at safety than they are at cornerback, especially with Maye and fellow injured vet Lamarcus Joyner likely to leave. Ashtyn Davis, a third-round pick in 2020, hasn’t shown enough to be locked into a starting job, but he might end up with one out of sheer desperation. Saleh can’t go into 2022 with this secondary and expect to be competitive.

In the NFC West, archrivals Falcons and Saints both need help at safety and won’t have much cap space to address their problems. The Saints will be fine if they can bring back Williams, but that’s easier said than done. The Falcons might try to re-sign Harmon, but given that they ranked 31st against the pass last season (with a superstar cornerback in A.J. Terrell), I wouldn’t fault them for attempting as much of a fresh start as possible.

One team we haven’t mentioned much is the Texans, who need just about everything. Reid is likely to leave in free agency, and Murray has been miscast outside of a special teams role. It remains to be seen whether general manager Nick Caserio will go back to the well and sign another two dozen veterans to short-term deals this offseason, but if the Texans are more aggressive in trying to build a long-term plan, safety would be one of the places for new coach Lovie Smith’s team to target.

The Texans have been trying to solve their safety woes since letting Mathieu leave, and if the Chiefs do lose their star defender, Veach will have to consider signing a significant replacement. The much-maligned Sorensen is also a free agent, leaving the Chiefs with Juan Thornhill and not much else in the back end. If they want to continue playing things cheap at cornerback, they probably need to invest in one of the top safeties in this market.

BROADCAST NEWS

Kirk Herbstreit is headed to the NFL.  Peter King:

Herbstreit to the NFL

I heard last night that Amazon—spurned by Troy Aikman, Sean McVay and John Lynch—has settled on ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit to be the analyst on its Thursday night package of NFL games starting this fall. (He’s likely to continue his current ESPN/ABC duties as well.)

My first reaction: It seems weird. Amazon would rather have a very good college football analyst who’s never had a regular NFL job do the games than, say, Drew Brees or Sean Payton or Kurt Warner? My second reaction: Herbstreit’s a pro, he’s a big name to legions of college football fans, he must really want to break the college-to-NFL glass ceiling, Amazon surely wanted to make a splash with this hire, and Herbstreit’s a non-status-quo guy. He’s different. It’s a little edgy, a little risky. All that, just my educated guess.

We’re still awaiting decision from two of the great play-by-play people of our lives, Al Michaels and Joe Buck, on their 2022 homes. But when you stream Amazon this fall to watch the Thursday night package, you’ll be hearing a new NFL voice, Kirk Herbstreit, interpret the games.

2022 DRAFT

Peter King thinks a Michigan Man will be first off the board:

Aidan Hutchinson exits Indy as the odds-on favorite to be the top pick

My hunch is the Jaguars favor a spotless edge prospect over one of the tackles. Hutchinson flew home to Michigan on Sunday morning knowing he did nothing to hurt his cause. I’m not crazy about projecting who’s going to be a good NFL player based on some measured drill in shorts and a T-shirt, and this shouldn’t determine Hutchinson’s draft fate. But if you’ve seen the 3-cone drill—designed to measure a player’s speed while he changes direction in an instant—you know that it’s a valuable tool to judge edge rushers, receivers and cornerbacks. Hutchinson’s 6.73-second time here was faster than all but five players at this combine, two receivers and three defensive backs.

I don’t believe Jags GM Trent Baalke and coach Doug Pederson will be unduly swayed by combine tests. But the tape says a lot about Hutchinson’s raw power and instincts and drive. His college production (30.5 tackles-for-loss plus sacks last season) has made some scouts compare him to former NFL edge player Jared Allen, who put up 136 sacks in 12 NFL season. Their on-field zeal is certainly comparable.

Allen’s 3-cone in the 2004 pre-draft process: 7.11 seconds. We’ll see if Hutchinson’s premier athleticism here means much come the first round April 28.

King with more thoughts on the draft, featuring Daniel Jeremiah:

NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, fresh off the set after six days of analysis, on his three main takeaways from the 2022 combine:

• Good depth. “The overall depth of this class is outstanding. Here are two examples: In a normal year, UConn defensive tackle Travis Jones would have been the buzz of the defensive linemen after a great workout. [Minnesota defensive end] Boye Mafe, same thing. They are first-round talents, and they almost got lost in the shuffle of all the great players here.”

• Georgia players might be better than we thought. Everyone swooned over 341-pound defensive tackle Jordan Davis running as fast as a running back. “But here’s what was really crazy about the Georgia group: The other defensive tackle from there, Devonte Wyatt, is even more explosive. [Defensive tackle] Jalen Carter’s probably the best player on that defense this year, and he’s not eligible for the draft till next year. And Jermaine Johnson could be a top-10 pick—and he had to transfer from Georgia to Florida State to get playing time last season. I have never seen a defense with that kind of talent.”

• Lack of clarity at quarterback. Pitt’s Kenny Pickett and Liberty’s Malik Willis “are what we thought they were,” while Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder and UNC’s Sam Howell were impressive. But the quarterbacks exited the combine with as many question marks about being NFL starters as when they arrived.

If you want pure speed in a cornerback your man is CB KALON BARNES of Baylor.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Baylor cornerback Kalon Barnes is extremely fast. Officially, the second-fastest guy to run 40 yards in a straight line at the Scouting Combine.

His official time of 4.23 seconds puts him at No. 2 all-time for the event, behind only receiver John Ross and the 4.22-second 40-yard dash he generated in 2017.

The next fastest 40 came from running back Chris Johnson in 2008, with a 4.24-second 40.

Most of the guys who ran the 40 in the quickest times never did much in the NFL. With the exception of Johnson, really fast in the 40 often means really short NFL career.

So congratulations for now, Kalon Barnes. Condolences, possibly, later.

Peter King on another player who made some money in 4.79 seconds – DL JORDAN DAVIS of Georgia:

By sheer amazement, the thing that blew people away more than anything in the past few days was a 341-pound man running a 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds. Georgia’s Jordan Davis ran the 40 faster than Patrick Mahomes (116 pounds lighter) did five years ago at the combine. Mahomes ran a 4.80.

Most draft analysts have Davis ranked around the middle of the first round. Fair enough. Lots of disparity in opinion about him, though. “Incredible run,” one GM told me. “But why wasn’t he on the field for Georgia on third down?”

Hmmm. Let’s see. Per Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, Jordan Davis played 44 of Georgia’s 246 defensive snaps on third down in 2021. That means he played 18 percent of Georgia’s third downs. You’d think that a man who can run that fast would be invaluable on third down because of his ability to shoot through gaps and get to the quarterback. But he was likely the third most explosive interior linemen at Georgia last year, behind Devonte Wyatt and Jalen Carter. And PFF had him as the seventh-rated interior defensive lineman in the this draft.

But Eager pointed out that teams love the big-body nose players who can be athletic too, because it allows them to have fewer players in the box to respect the run on likely passing downs. So Davis still has very good value in the draft, and his performance here likely means he goes no later than 20.