Chris Simms has ZACH WILSON of BYU as the top QB in the draft, ahead of the anointed TREVOR LAWRENCE.  Peter King on his track record:

Never mind that Simms, the former Bucs quarterback and current NBC Sports NFL analyst, rated Justin Herbert ahead of Tua Tagovailoa last year, and had Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen his favorite QBs in the ’18 draft, and loved Patrick Mahomes in 2017. That didn’t buy him any trust when he came out with his 2021 draft ratings and had BYU quarterback Zach Wilson over overwhelming consensus number one Trevor Lawrence when he released his draft rankings last week. Twitter mostly saw Simms as the dolt who ranked Tom Brady number 15 in his 2020 QB rankings. And mostly, Simms didn’t care.

“It’s lather, rinse, repeat,” Simms said Saturday. “I don’t care. Every year when I look at quarterbacks, I don’t go in with preconceived notions. The film teaches me. I learned from my dad [former Giants QB Phil Simms] and from some smart offensive coaches, Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels. I trust myself. Last year, I had Herbert ahead of Tua, and it’s ‘What an idiot. What does he know?’ When I had Lamar and Josh Allen ahead of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, it was, ‘You only have the job because of your father.’ So, hey, I just do what I think is right. And some smart people in the NFL listen to how I rank these guys.”

King has the QB draft ratings of Simms and four others for you to contemplate:

 Chris Simms, NBC, Former NFL QB

1. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young. Best pure thrower in the draft, most explosive arm in the draft. Has Mahomes/Rodgers magician type of traits. I think he’s more pro-ready than Trevor Lawrence.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Big, strong-armed, and played in a lot of big-time games. Still untapped potential. Throwing is not as consistent as Wilson or Mac Jones, but has great tools.

3. Mac Jones, Alabama. A machine. Best processor of information I’ve seen this year—the way Joe Burrow was. Throws a perfect spiral that hits the bullseye almost every throw. The way Alabama called plays, you could tell they trusted him more than Tua.

4. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. Way under the radar. Don’t know why. Third-purest thrower, behind Wilson and Jones. When pocket’s collapsing, can still throw a perfect 20-yard out. I think he’s a first-round talent. After my rankings came out, I had people in NFL text me, “Damn you. Wish you hadn’t brought his name up in the conversation.” Some teams love him.

5. Justin Fields, Ohio State. An Adonis. Built like Cam Newton. Great runner. Some inconsistencies in his throwing—mechanics and accuracy. Too many times when the mechanics lead to throws that aren’t effective.

6. Trey Lance, North Dakota State. I like his throwing and mechanics more than Fields. Wideout-type speed, really strong arm. But there’s a lack of experience, and often looks at one guy and makes a throw. Probably needs to sit for a year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him last till the second round.

Dan Orlovsky, ESPN, Former NFL QB

1. Lawrence. Elite fundamentals, elite talent. Untapped potential because of subpar scheme in college. Most consistent high level of play—we take it for granted.

2. Wilson. Omar Vizquel hands at QB. Very natural thrower of the football with the most “holy cow” throws in this draft. Play every snap with a belief there’s a big play out there somewhere on the field.

3. Fields. Physical talent is off the charts. Throws very well on the run. Will have to develop throwing to covered guys. Covered in college is often times open in NFL. Needs to be less “deliberate.”

4. Jones. Most impressive tape of any guy. Makes me say “so well done” the most. Perfect case of traits versus tape. Isn’t fast, but plays incredibly fast. I will know draft night if he’s going to be good (most dependent on where he goes).

5. Lance. Reminds me some of Dak Prescott. As good a deep ball thrower as anyone in the draft. Confidence in decisions. He’s an oxymoron—has a calm restlessness style of play.

Mike Renner, Pro Football Focus

1. Lawrence. He doesn’t have weaknesses. Not a Josh Allen arm, not Joe Burrow-accurate. But he’s NFL-ready. Very reminiscent of Andrew Luck. Can be a top-12 NFL quarterback in the NFL as a rookie.

2. Wilson. How much do you love big, highlight-reel impressive throws on every tape? Throws on the move, downfield, from different arm angles. Was not under pressure much. Didn’t play top competition.

3. Fields. Very accurate. For his career, the most accurate quarterback we’ve ever charted. His average depth of target is two yards farther than [ex-Buckeye] Dwayne Haskins. Plus, a legit weapon as a runner.

4. Lance. Probably the most impressive physical skill set of any QB in the draft. Probably the strongest arm, and he’s an excellent runner. Accuracy isn’t what the others have, but you fall in love with what he could be.

5. Jones. Doesn’t have the arm strength or mobility of the others. Might not make the special throws. But he’s accurate, with a very quick release, operated a good offense at a high level of a good offense. Outplayed Tua.

Greg Cosell, Analyst, “NFL Matchup” show

1. Lawrence. What consistently stood out was how precisely accurate he was on intermediate and deep throws. Bring the designed QB run game to an offense. Has an aggressive, turn-it-loose throwing mentality. Will be a day one NFL starter.

2. Wilson. His 2020 tape shows a QB whose game was built on pocket efficiency and off-schedule movement. My sense is he’s a combination of structured system efficiency with precise ball location and second-reaction improvisation.

Cosell has not ranked the order of Fields, Lance and Jones. Fields has a compact delivery and plus arm strength, Cosell said, but “did not show a natural feel for timing and anticipation—needed to see it before turning it loose.” Lance is “the most intriguing QB prospect” this year with great traits and a live arm; “it would not surprise me if Lance was a very good NFL QB three years down the road once he gains more experience and coaching.” Jones, Cosell said, is experienced with NFL route concepts and RPO, but he was concerned about Jones’ ability “to play outside of structure and make off-schedule plays.”

One more note from Cosell: “Jones is the most fascinating prospect. Almost every coach you talk to says second-reaction movement is almost essential for NFL quarterbacks now. Yet Jones has none and is not a good athlete. It will be interesting.”

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network Draft Analyst

1. Lawrence. Such a unique package. When you have that size and athletic ability, and he’s shown the ability to make plays outside the system too. Played against a high level for a long period.

2. Wilson. You’re getting pushback from a lot of folks who maybe didn’t watch as much of him. But there’s a lot of support for Zach around the league. He played the best this season, but there’s a difference between playing the best and being the best quarterback. If he hadn’t had that shoulder surgery [labrum surgery in 2019], I might be having some of Chris [Simms’] courage, putting Zach number one.

3. Lance. Lance and Fields are very close. Both physical, strong, aggressive, tough demeanor. It comes down to decision-making. Lance protects the football, has poise and doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. Trusts what he sees. Is he ready right now? It’s more of a long-term play. I believe in the kid.

4. Fields. A little more accurate and consistent, but at times he got a little reckless with the ball. That bothered me. At times, he holds the ball too long. You can speed up your clock, which he needs to do.

5. Jones. Because his athletic tools are limited, it puts pressure on the organization to build up the rest of the roster. You’ve got to have a good offensive line in front of him.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

Without draft capital, Peter King thinks the Bears will be left out of the QB market:

For a second, let’s be real. Short of a miracle, the Bears are screwed. The reports last week that the Bears will go hard after Russell Wilson left me asking: “With what trade chips, exactly?” Why would Seattle incur a $39-million cap hit for 2021 by trading Wilson to the Bears for a package including (presumably) edge rusher Khalil Mack, quarterback Nick Foles, the 20th overall pick this year, and Chicago’s first-round pick next year, among other things? Seattle currently has one pick in the top 125 choices in this year’s draft (56th overall). How do the Seahawks find a QB-of-the-future hope with, say 20 and 56 this year, and no first-round pick next year? Seems like a futile pipe dream, that the Bears would have much Seattle GM John Schneider would find equitable.

I’ve thought for some time that the Bears will be left out of the prime QB stakes. Chicago’s holding the 52nd and 83rd overall picks this year, and if the first round comes and goes without Wilson or Deshaun Watson coming, the Bears should pursue Las Vegas backup Marcus Mariota. I don’t know if he can fulfill the promise of pre-draft 2015, but he sure looked good in his brief trial with Vegas last season.

GREEN BAY

Two months ago, the Packers tried to get QB AARON RODGERS to re-work his contract says Jason Wilder of the Wisconsin State Journal:

Like roughly half the NFL, the Green Bay Packers know they have their work cut out for themselves with the salary cap shrinking, impending free agents they’d like to keep and roster needs to fill despite the fiscal restrictions created by the league’s COVID-19 pandemic-related financial losses.

So whether it’s restructuring — or, perhaps, extending — three-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ contract, reworking the contracts of other prominent players or reluctantly cutting ties with players who’d otherwise be on the roster if not for the reduced salary cap, coach Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst both acknowledged a flurry of moves are coming in the next two weeks before the new league year begins on March 17.

“It certainly is a challenge. It’s a challenge for all of us,” LaFleur said during a Zoom call with reporters earlier this week. “There’s going to be tough decisions that need to be made. (But) you’ve got to move forward and you’ve got to make the best decisions that you feel are right for the Green Bay Packers. It’s going to be important that we continue to develop a lot of our younger guys, because there are going to be some voids that potentially could be left there. And the best way to alleviate those voids is to develop your younger guys.”

Added Gutekunst: “There’s going to be some things we have to do between now and the time we get to playing ball to keep it under the cap. We have a lot of moves to make still. … I think we will work with our players to do what we need to do.”

Despite having already restructured All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari’s contract to clear $8.3 million in cap space, the Packers still have to create a smidge more than $11 million in cap space to reach the projected cap of $180.5 million, according to OverTheCap.com. There have been reports the cap will be higher than that, though it could settle around $185 million — or roughly $13 million less than it was for the 2020 season, set before the pandemic hit.

With a host of crucial players headed into free agency (All-Pro center Corey Linsley and Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones among them) and Rodgers’ onerous cap number ($37.6 million) needing adjustment, Gutekunst told the media nothing is off the table as the team seeks the maneuverability necessary to retain or add players.

That could mean extending Rodgers’ contract beyond 2023, when it’s set to expire after the four-year, $134 million extension he signed in August 2018, when he had two years remaining on his existing deal.

According to a source, the team approached Rodgers around the time of the team’s Jan. 24 season-ending loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game about altering his contract to free up cap space. After that game, Rodgers notably mused about his own uncertain future with the team, and multiple sources said at the time Rodgers was merely seeking a longer-term commitment to him as the quarterback in the wake of last year’s first-round selection of Jordan Love in the NFL draft.

Extending the 37-year-old Rodgers’ contract, then, would do two things: tie the team to its star quarterback for a longer period of time — as Rodgers’ current contract is structured, the Packers could move on from him after the 2021 season and save themselves more than $22 million in salary cap space — while also creating much-needed 2021 cap room.

Asked directly if he has talked with Rodgers about restructuring his contract, Gutekunst replied: “With all of our players, I keep whatever conversations we have confidential. But I will say we’ve reached out to a number of players — obviously David Bakhtiari being one who we’ve already gone down that route with him — working with those guys to kind of find solutions to this cap issue. I’m appreciative of those guys. I think everybody wants to try to put the best football team out there in ‘21 that we can.”

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA

As we found with QB CARSON WENTZ, be wary of rumors that lots of teams are interested in an Eagles player.  Michael Baca of NFL.com on rumors percolating around TE ZACH ERTZ:

Tight end Zach Ertz may be the next Philadelphia Eagle on the move.

Multiple teams have called the Eagles about the possibility of trading for Ertz and a deal could happen in the coming days, sources tell NFL Network’s Michael Silver.

The potential trade of Ertz would exemplify the ongoing change in Philadelphia after the team agreed to trade quarterback Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts last month.

Ertz, 30, is coming off a down year with 36 receptions for 335 yards and one touchdown in 11 games. Those are season-lows in all three categories for the three-time Pro Bowler, but this move wouldn’t be solely because of Ertz’s recent lack of production.

While this upcoming year’s salary cap yet to be fully determined, the Eagles are projected to be well over the maximum number ($34,146,468 in the red, per Over the Cap) and trading Ertz away would give them some much-needed financial relief. Ertz is set to earn a base salary of $8.25 million in 2021 while carrying a cap hit of $12.5 million and a dead cap value of $7.8 million.

The Eagles are also well-equipped to let Ertz go with Dallas Goedert coming into his own after three seasons. The second-round pick had 46 receptions for 524 yards and three touchdowns last season.

As the Eagles continue an offseason of major changes, including the hiring of new head coach Nick Sirianni, getting compensation for Ertz is ideal for the Eagles. On the other hand, Ertz getting dealt to a contender would be an amicable way to end a fruitful eight years with the team.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Peter King tries to broker a trade:

I think if I were the Panthers, I’d go hard after the number two pick, because Joe Brady and Zach Wilson would be a great match.

TAMPA BAY

Josina Anderson hears the Buccaneers and QB TOM BRADY are close to an extension.

@JosinaAnderson

I’m told the #Bucs are ‘getting closer’ to reworking Tom Brady’s contract, per source. Tom Brady will be 44 in August. Brady has said he’d ‘consider’ playing beyond 45 years old.

Jeff Howe’s sources are a little bit more low key on what is going on.

Jeff Howe

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have discussed a new contract, according to a source, but it’s been characterized as more of a routine discussion for this time of year. Something could happen, but it doesn’t sound imminent. He’s got one year left on his current deal.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

Peter King doubts the wisdom of Arizona’s deal for EDGE JJ WATT:

To pay Watt $20 million, at least, seems a curious decision for the Cardinals. (The numbers: $12 million to sign, $2.5-million base salary this year, $5.5 million guaranteed next year.) Not only does it send 26-year-old pass-rusher Haason Reddick into free agency after a 12.5-sack season (his only good year as a Card, to be fair) but it locks in a player in his age-32 season who has missed 32 games in his last five years due to injury opposite franchise rusher Chandler Jones. I do think Watt has a chance to be very good again, but GM Steve Keim takes a pretty big chance, hoping Watt—who has had one double-digit sack season in the last five years—can be a premier player again.

AFC NORTH

PITTSBURGH

Peter King on QB BEN ROETHLISBERGER and what looks to be his final year:

The contract re-do he signed with the Steelers last week includes some phony voidable years, and the deal voids five days after the Super Bowl, so it seems like the 2021 season will be Roethlisberger’s final one in Pittsburgh—and likely in the NFL. A few things about Roethlisberger after he took a $5-million paycut with the Steelers to lower his cap number by $15.3 million in 2021: He’s very much on-board with the team’s sole off-season focus (even at the expense of losing productive wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster) of revamping the run game after a putrid 3.62-yard average carry last year, worst in the NFL. He understands that’s going to be the emphasis in low-cost free-agency and the draft and with new offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s playbook. Roethlisberger had to accept a rebuilding of the offensive line, including the retirement of center Maurkice Pouncey, and he did.

Roethlisberger also knows with the cap getting chopped league-wide and the Steelers needing money—and with the likelihood that he’s the highest-paid player in league history at $262 million entering the year—the locker room would appreciate him taking a $5-million haircut. “He’s in a great frame of mind,” said a good friend of his. “He really wanted to come back and take a legit shot [at a Super Bowl] this year.”

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com notes that John McClain of the Houston Chronicle is trying to broker a trade:

It’s one thing for slappies like me to spitball about a potential Deshaun Watson for Kyler Murray trade. It’s another for John McClain of the Houston Chronicle to suggest it.

A week after McClain wrote that the Texans should accept reality and trade Watson, McClain argues that the Texans should approach the Cardinals about a Ken Stabler-Dan Pastorini-style quarterback swap.

It’s a move that instantly would make sense for the Texans and Watson. Houston would replace one franchise quarterback with another, and Watson would be reunited with DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt, on a team that had twice the wins as the Texans in 2020. The Cardinals. however, would have to be willing to embrace Watson (and his contract) in place of Murray, the first overall pick in 2019 who has shown flashes of superstardom.

Then there’s Murray. As McClain notes, Murray has to be on board with joining a franchise mired in dysfunction. After all, Murray has the ultimately leverage — he can quit football and go play baseball. (It currently would cost him $11.6 million to walk away form football for baseball. If the Texans trade for Murray and if Murray leaves the sport, the Texans would have the right to recover the unearned bonus money.)

If both teams and both quarterbacks would be OK with it, the next challenge becomes fixing the right price for a trade. Would a straight-up deal do it? Or would the Cardinals have to add more to the pile?

From Arizona’s perspective, the argument against adding more could be that they’re giving up Murray and the three years left on his rookie deal for a contract that pays out $10 million this year and that has a huge $35 million salary in 2022.

McClain opens his item by explaining that he hadn’t considered a Kyler-for-Deshaun until J.J. Watt joined the Cardinals. That’s when the light bulb first flickered for me.

It’s a long shot, to be sure. But even crazier things have happened in the NFL. Indeed, it feels like, in the coming days, even crazier things will happen.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Are the Patriots angling to get QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO back?  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:

In 2014, they drafted him. In 2017, they traded him. In 2021, could they be reacquiring him?

Greg Bedard recently said on his podcast that 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo represents the Patriots’ “Plan A” at quarterback, via NBC Sports Bay Area. Bedard characterizes Garoppolo as “far and away” New England’s preferred choice.

Of course, the 49ers would have to make someone else their preferred choice before Garoppolo would be available. Even then, it’s hard to imagine Garoppolo being traded, given that he’s due to make $25 million in 2021. With a shrinking cap and given that Garoppolo has missed 23 games over the last three seasons, it’s impossible to justify paying him the same amount Tom Brady will earn in Tampa Bay.

I’ve previously predicted that the 49ers eventually will cut Garoppolo. The lone caveat to that closed-eyes dart throw comes from the possibility that the 49ers will squeeze him to take less. (Reported interest in Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who’s due to make $17 million this year, could be a precursor to telling Garoppolo he should be making $17 million, too.)

However it plays out, the 49ers surely are discreetly looking for an upgrade. Why wouldn’t they? Of all positions other than kicker and punter, quarterbacks enjoy rules that maximize their ability to stay healthy. Garoppolo has failed to do that.

He also failed to do it in New England, which makes the Patriots’ interest in handing him the keys to the offense a little confusing. Garoppolo had a four-game audition in 2016 during Brady’s #Deflategate suspension, and Garoppolo got hurt in the second game.

It’s also impossible to forget the fact that Garoppolo’s performance in a divisional round win against the Vikings in January 2020 sufficiently freaked out coach Kyle Shanahan to take the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands, going run heavy for the rest of the win over Minnesota and making Garoppolo look like Bob Griese in the NFC Championship, with only eight passes thrown in the 37-20 win over the Packers.

If Garoppolo does indeed return to New England, here’s hoping he’s on the field when the Brady and the Bucs come to town for what will be one of the biggest games of 2021.

NEW YORK JETS

Peter King sees the Jets in a great position as far as the draft is concerned, with plenty of options:

No team in the next 14 months has a better draft situation than the Jets. Currently, they own a decent piece of quarterback real estate in Sam Darnold. He’s worth, at least, a high second-round pick in this draft—39th overall to Carolina, maybe, or 40th to Denver, or 43rd to San Francisco. (The 49ers are my personal favorite.) For a moment, let’s pretend New York holds onto Darnold without exercising the fifth-year option, and plays this year with Darnold and eschews picking a quarterback number two. That leaves New York with a premier player at two, or a trade-down to eight or nine (Carolina or Denver) for first-round picks this year and in 2022, and a second-rounder this year. Say it’s Carolina. That would leave the Jets with Darnold at quarterback plus:

The eighth and 23rd picks in the first round this year.

The 34th and 39th overall picks in the second round this year.

The 66th and 86th picks in the third round this year.

Three first-round picks next year: their own, Carolina’s and Seattle’s (Jamal Adams trade)

It’s silly to think the Jets absolutely can wait till next year to get their quarterback if Darnold is mediocre this year. A year ago, Zach Wilson was in a three-way battle for the BYU starting job, so who knew he’d come out early and be a top-three prospect in the ’21 draft? No one. So even though Spencer Rattler of Oklahoma and Sam Howell of North Carolina could be top-five prospects in 2022, it’s impossible to sit here and say there will be X number of top-tier quarterbacks in the 2022 draft, led by Rattler and Howell. Too early. But if the Jets have three ones next year, they’d be in position to go get a QB of the future. Someone who knows Jets GM Joe Douglas told me the other day he’s pretty sure the Jets have not made their mind up about the quarterback, and Douglas could be swayed by the quality of offers for Darnold. We’ll see. Smart money says they stick at two, eschew Deshaun Watson, and draft Wilson or their fave of the quarterbacks after Jacksonville takes Trevor Lawrence.

THIS AND THAT

QB SCENARIOS

Dan Hanzus of NFL.com has the best and worst that can happen to 15 QBs:

Deshaun Watson

Houston Texans · QB

Best-case scenario: Watson gets the fresh start he so desperately craves. The Texans move the star quarterback to a QB-needy team with enough talent to survive the significant loss in draft and personnel that will be necessary to complete the blockbuster trade. The opportunity to stay in the AFC, so as to regularly remind the Texans of their folly? That would be the cherry on top.

Worst-case scenario: The current course holds: The Texans dig in their heels and refuse to acquiesce to Watson’s trade demands. It’s ugly business that would likely set up one of the nastier player vs. team showdowns in recent NFL history. Could Watson stay put and refuse to play in 2021? Now there’s your worst-case scenario.

Most likely scenario: The Texans grasp the reality of the situation and make a swap ahead of the draft. The deal takes Watson out of the picture but allows the Texans to start over with roster reinforcements and a full cupboard of draft assets. Houston becomes an expansion team all over again, and Watson begins anew.

Jimmy Garoppolo

San Francisco 49ers · QB

Best-case scenario: The 49ers do their homework, surveying the free-agent, trade and draft landscape before deciding it’s in their best interest to ride with their guy. Garoppolo shows up at training camp feeling great, setting up the inevitable notebook ledes about important changes in his offseason training regimen. Kyle Shanahan makes it clear Jimmy G is his unquestioned starter, taking the air out of any looming camp drama.

Worst-case scenario: The 49ers secure a new starting quarterback from an outside source, and Garoppolo is sent packing to an organization without the personnel and coaching wealth he’s grown accustomed to in San Francisco. He ends up with a team that already has a starter in place and goes — in two years — from Super Bowl quarterback to camp-battle participant in a strange land.

Most likely scenario: 49ers general manager John Lynch said last month he “really” believes Garoppolo will be the team’s starter in 2021. It doesn’t promise anything, but you don’t get the sense this is the same desperate situation like we saw with the Rams and Jared Goff. If Jimmy G indeed sticks around, it sets up a do-or-die fifth season in San Francisco.

Teddy Bridgewater

Carolina Panthers · QB

Best-case scenario: The Panthers strike out in their (presumed) quest for Deshaun Watson, don’t see any other veterans as a significant upgrade over Teddy, and use their top-10 pick to improve the roster around their incumbent QB.

Worst-case scenario: The Panthers decide one year of Bridgewater was enough and trade him to a team with an established starter in place. Bridgewater becomes an overqualified backup for what feels like the 14th time in the last 15 seasons.

Most likely scenario: It seems as if the Panthers are determined to have a new QB1 in 2021. Bridgewater has been a good soldier everywhere he’s been, so you can imagine the Panthers would like to trade him to a team that provides some path to the starting job. The Bears? The Dolphins? The Giants?

Sam Darnold

New York Jets · QB

Best-case scenario: The Jets don’t get Watson and trade out of the No. 2 overall pick to more efficiently improve a barren roster. New coach Robert Saleh throws his public support behind Darnold, who gets a much-needed reboot in New York. Surrounded by superior players and coaches, Darnold gets a final shot to realize the potential that made him the Jets’ highest-drafted QB since Joe Namath.

Worst-case scenario: The Jets decide a fresh start at head coach with Saleh would be best complemented with a new beginning at QB. Gang Green lands a new face of the franchise via trade or the draft, and Darnold is shipped out of town just when it looked like he was finally being put in a position to succeed.

Most likely scenario: The Jets do bring in a new quarterback, and Darnold is moved for a Day 2 draft pick. Given the raw deal of his first three NFL seasons, Darnold hopefully heads to a healthier situation and gets the opportunity to prove his struggles were a product of his environment in Gotham.

Derek Carr

Las Vegas Raiders · QB

Best-case scenario: Jon Gruden decides he’s no longer down with O.P.P. (Other People’s Passers) and learns to appreciate Carr for what he is: a proficient, top-15 NFL starter. Onward and upward.

Worst-case scenario: Gruden and GM Mike Mayock watch Marcus Mariota’s Week 15 performance against the Chargers on a loop and talk themselves into the former No. 2 overall pick being their guy going forward. Carr, a sensitive fellow even in the best of times, is hurt by the decision and demands to be traded. He gets that wish shortly before the draft.

Most likely scenario: Gruden begrudgingly accepts the fact that he’s not losing all those December games because of his quarterback. Carr stays put, and Vegas focuses on improving its wretched defense.

Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins · QB

Best-case scenario: The Dolphins exhibit some patience and understand Tua’s rookie season came following major hip surgery and without a traditional offseason program or preseason. Tua enters 2021 in a better place mentally and physically, with confidence that he has the support of the organization.

Worst-case scenario: Armed with a ton of draft capital, the Dolphins cannot resist the temptation to make another huge splash at quarterback. Tagovailoa gets Rosen’d: flipped after one season to a team that doesn’t offer a clear path to a starting job.

Most likely scenario: The Dolphins keep the faith and give Tagovailoa another year to prove himself. They even let Ryan Fitzpatrick walk in free agency, a move that takes a fan favorite and the league’s best backup out of the picture but also allows Tua to focus on his job without looking over his shoulder.

Drew Lock

Denver Broncos · QB

Best-case scenario: The Broncos pick through Lock’s deeply uneven game tape in 2020 and decide there’s still an impact quarterback buried beneath all the turnovers and hero throws. He enters camp as the unquestioned starter.

Worst-case scenario: New GM George Paton puts his stamp on the organization with a new signal-caller. Tires will be kicked in the Watson hunt, but a new QB enters the picture via the draft. Lock finishes out his rookie deal in Denver as a frustrated backup.

Most likely scenario: Paton may be GM, but John Elway will continue to have his fingerprints all over this organization. And since Elway is Team Lock, it’s likely the 2019 second-round pick will get one more shot to prove himself as QB1 material with a healthy (and impressive) crop of pass catchers. The Broncos should give themselves a better safety net by signing an established backup. Hello, Fitzmagic?

Cam Newton

New England Patriots · QB

Best-case scenario: Recent reports out of New England are legit, and Bill Belichick is a much bigger fan of Newton than one would have expected coming off the former MVP’s uneven 2020. Cam signs another short-term deal with the Pats and gets a complete offseason to fully grasp an offense that will hopefully be bolstered through free agency and the draft.

Worst-case scenario: The Pats use the draft to find what they hope is a long-term solution behind center. Cam is remembered as a “bridge” from one era to another in New England, and he returns to the open market for the second straight year, with few chances at a possible starting job.

Most likely scenario: The Pats extend the bridge, bringing back Newton as the starter, but this time with a young heir apparent on the depth chart behind him. Cam will need to make significant year-over-year strides to keep his job beyond Halloween.

Jameis Winston

New Orleans Saints · QB

Best-case scenario: Rap Sheet reported on Super Bowl Sunday that Winston is “in the driver’s seat” for the Saints’ starting job. The biggest obstacle to that reality is removed when Drew Brees finally announces his retirement sometime in late August (I kid). Winston gets a legit shot at reviving his career in a perfect place to do it.

Worst-case scenario: That surprising report about Brees setting personal records in sled pushing turns out to be exactly what it looks like: The 42-year-old decides to return for a 21st season. This makes things pretty awkward in New Orleans, but Sean Payton ultimately stays loyal to his longtime QB, leaving Winston to decide whether he wants to remain an understudy in New Orleans or explore his options on the open market.

Most likely scenario: Um, Brees probably retires? Deshaun Watson doesn’t come to New Orleans, and Winston gets his shot, even if it turns into something of a tandem deal with Taysom Hill.

One-Liners

Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys · QB

We can spin off into fantasy about the Cowboys pivoting to Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson or Joe Montana … but let’s keep our feet on the ground here and work under the assumption that Prescott and Dallas get a long-term deal done this summer.

Alex Smith

Washington Football Team · QB

His days in Washington numbered, Smith could make sense for the Bears or a team with an incumbent quarterback who enters 2021 on unsteady ground.

Ben Roethlisberger

Pittsburgh Steelers · QB

Big Ben and the Steelers will work out the business side of things, and he’ll have one more shot at getting back to the Super Bowl. It’s likely the Steelers will have a more capable veteran behind him on the depth chart, though. 

Daniel Jones

New York Giants · QB

This is likely Jones’ last shot to prove he’s The Man in New York. If he stumbles through another mediocre season, both the 2019 first-rounder and GM Dave Gettleman will be out of the picture come 2022.

Nick Foles

Chicago Bears · QB

I know everybody’s been pitching this basically since the day he left, but now can we bring Foles back to the Eagles? With Carson Wentz out of the picture, Foles would be a nice backup option behind Jalen Hurts.

Russell Wilson

Seattle Seahawks · QB

The marriage between the Seahawks and Mr. Unlimmmmmmited should continue for at least one more season. Could it be Super Bowl-or-bust for the Wilson era in Seattle?

MAIA CHAKA

Maia Chaka has joined Sarah Thomas as a female official on the NFL staff.  Zoe Jones of CBSNews.com:

The first time Maia Chaka fell in love with football, she wasn’t even sure what the sport was.

As a child, she loved to go outside and toss a football around with her younger brother. This eventually led to her playing football with the boys in her neighborhood and grew to a full-fledged passion for the game in her teens.

But when Chaka couldn’t find a tackle football team in high school that would accept girls, she switched to other sports. It wasn’t until her college years at Norfolk State University that she rediscovered her love for the game in a new way: officiating.

Armed with a bachelor’s in education, Chaka took a major leap and started two careers at once: a physical education teacher and a football referee. It did more than just pay off.

On Friday, Chaka became the NFL’s newest official, making her the first Black woman ever named to the league’s officiating staff.

Chaka has spent her career officiating major collegiate events, including roles at both the Pac-12 Conference and Conference USA.  She has been a part of the NFL’s Officiating Development Program since 2014, which takes officials at the college level and gives them experience and exposure at the NFL level, something she says took her to the big leagues.

“You can’t just wake up one day and decide to be an NFL official,” Chaka told CBS News on Friday. “You have to train. And just that constant exposure of being around it and being around other veteran officials. I think that was definitely helpful.”

But Chaka’s new role didn’t come easy.

She spent a lot of time and energy early on in her career trying to make it to the NFL. But as things seemed to move slower and slower, she took a step back and focused on becoming the best official she could be at her current level. This, she said, helped strengthen her talent and land her new position.

“I just really focused on building myself and getting myself stronger,” she said. “So I think they noticed my work ethic and how much work I really started to put into it.”

Now that she’s reached her goal, Chaka said she still feels exactly like herself. Her parents, who found out about her new role along with the rest of the world, are extremely proud of her hard work.  “But nothing will change,” she said. “When I go back home to visit, I’ll still have to wash dishes and do all that stuff.”

Chaka, who works as a teacher in the Virginia Beach public school system, admitted that the shock of her new job hasn’t really set in yet, but she’s excited about what her new role means to her students and the women who come after her.

“I think it’s bigger to (my students) than it is to me at the moment right now,” Chaka said. “Some of the best things I’ve seen all day today were screenshots of things that my older students were posting on social media and some of the things that they were saying — how much I changed their lives or what an inspiration I was and things that were just motivational for them.”

“I just think that was the greatest reward for me, just to get to know that what I was teaching them is still resonating with them to this day.”

It took decades for the NFL to hire its first woman official: Sarah Thomas in 2015. But Chaka doesn’t spend much time thinking about those who believe she doesn’t belong because of her gender. Instead, she recognizes just how much harder Black and Brown women have to work for recognition in any field, something she says would exist regardless of her career.

For now, she’s focused on that same thing she’s always been — being the best ref she can be. “Just because the door is now open, that doesn’t mean that I can relax. I still go through that football mentality. I still have that hustle, that dog mentality every single day — and that’s the grind.”

2021 DRAFT

With help from Daniel Jeremiah, Peter King offers an overview of the draft:

What you need to know about the landscape of the 2020 draft:

The quarterbacks are plentiful, as is the uncertainty. Five are likely to go in the first round, with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence the likely number one pick to Jacksonville and BYU’s late-rising Zach Wilson likely number two to the Jets or some team trading up for him. After that, it’s a jumble. Ohio State’s Justin Fields is likely to go in the top 10, and the other two could go that high as well. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance was a terrific size-speed prospect against FCS competition in 2019, but played just one game in 2020, so some teams don’t know what make of him. And Mac Jones, great last fall in leading Alabama to the national title, could go as high as eight to Carolina. But he’s not an athlete and doesn’t fit the mold of a new-wave NFL passer.

“Jones is the most challenging evaluation for me,” Jeremiah said. “Ten years ago, lots of prospects were like him—accurate, great decision-making, poise in the pocket. He’s outstanding in those three. But the league is going in a different direction. You need guys who can create plays. If you can’t create and buy some time, or take off and run for a first down on third-and-five, it’s hard. You have a narrow path to winning consistently.”

Not a great defensive draft, at all. Jeremiah has 24 players with first-round grades, only 10 on defense. (For the record, four quarterbacks, four wideouts, three offensive linemen, two running backs, one tight end, three edge players, three linebackers, three corners, and one safety. No defensive tackles.) Jeremiah has Rousseau, Jaelan Phillips of Miami and Kwity Paye of Michigan atop his Edge rankings, but it doesn’t seem like any of them are locks.

What’s weird about this draft: It’s conceivable that the first eight players could be offensive players, and one of the unheralded corners—opt-out Virginia Tech athlete Caleb Farley or Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II—could be the first defender taken. “If you want a corner,” Jeremiah said, “you better get one in the first couple of rounds. It falls off after that.” Another son of an ex-NFLer, South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn (son of former wideout Joe Horn), should go by the end of round one.

Best position in the draft: Wide receiver (again). In the last two drafts, teams have picked a total of 30 wideouts in the first three rounds. This year, Jeremiah has 19 receivers with grades in the top three rounds. When you see the recent draft depth of the position—third-round wideouts from the last three years: Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Tre’Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson—I begin to think NFL teams should start treating the receiver position like running backs. Don’t waste a high pick on one; you can get a good one in the seventies, eighties, nineties overall.

“It’s almost the same every year now, Jeremiah said. “Last year, I had a record number of guys with top-three-round grades [27]. Not as much this year, but so many good options in the second, third, fourth rounds.” Most draft boards will have LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle among the top 12 picks. Kadarius Toney of Florida is Jeremiah’s fourth first-round wideout, but his favorite wideout at a bargain price (mid-round two) is Mississippi’s Elijah Moore: “There were games that nobody could cover him.”

Surest position at the top? Might be offensive line. It’s not deep, but either Rashawn Slater of Northwestern or Penei Sewell of Oregon (both were 2020 opt-outs) could be opening-day left tackles in September. They should both go in the top six or eight. Slater played well against Ohio State and ace edge-rusher Chase Young in their 2019 meeting. Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC) could play guard or tackle comfortably, and Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech) and Jalen Mayfield (Michigan) could crack the end of the first round.

The Unicorn. Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is the first player at his position in 43 years of Mel Kiper’s draft-grading to crack the top five overall prospects. Whether he goes that high is a matter of taste, but a smart team could use him as an in-line tight end, running routes out of the slot, split wide, and as an athletic motion man. (Remember Rob Gronkowski’s Jet Motion Super Bowl TD, when he was untouched by any defenders?) So Pitts may be drafted as a tight end but could end up playing all over the map. “If he had ‘WR’ next to his name,” Jeremiah said, “he’d be a top 15 pick.”

Run-and-chase linebackers are in style. Jeremiah loves Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah of Notre Dame, and sees Micah Parsons (Penn State) and Zaven Collins (Tulsa) as first-round ‘backers. “He’s such an exciting player,” Jeremiah said of Owusu-Koramoah. “He’s one of the guys in this draft I can’t wait to see—both how he’ll be used and how many plays he makes all over the field.”

Running backs high in the draft are out of style, but not to Jeremiah. He loves Clemson’s Travis Etienne and Alabama’s Najee Harris, and the prospect who might be his favorite player in the draft (encompassing value as well as talent) is a likely second-rounder, North Carolina’s Javonte Williams. Jeremiah thinks Williams could end up being the best back in the draft. “Not often a running back is the leader of your football team,” Jeremiah said, “but Javonte Williams was at North Carolina.”

“I know one thing,” Jeremiah said near the end of our conversation. “If you’re a team or if you’re a fan, you’d better exercise patience after the draft this year. There’s just too much we’re not going to know about too many players.”

With the draft dominating news cycles increasingly from November to April, that’s not something draft-crazy fans are going to want to hear. But it sure sounds like the truth in 2021.