The Daily Briefing Monday, May 1, 2023

Now that the three-day draft has dominated the American sports landscape (despite the three other major leagues still going strong with actual games), the NFL’s next opportunity to bigfoot the other big leagues is coming.

It’s the schedule release. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com reports that the league is targeting May 11, a date that is consistent with recent practice.

We already know the participants and home/away designations for the 272 regular-season games. But it’s the when and on-which-network that becomes so damn compelling.

It’s even more compelling this year, given that for the first time ever the wall has been torn down between the AFC having a default network (CBS) and the NFC having its unofficial home (Fox).

Adding to the intrigue will be the sudden interest in the Jets, a team that hasn’t played on NBC since the buttfumble game of Thanksgiving 2012. Now, every network will want as many Jets games as it can get — especially with so many great games on the schedule.

Six AFC East games. Chiefs, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Chargers. Even the so-so games against the Raiders, Broncos, Falcons, Browns, Commanders, and Texans become big deals.

The release of the schedule, on May 11, will be the biggest deal in American sports that day. To the ongoing chagrin of the sports that are actually playing sports in May.

– – –

Who will go all in for QB CALEB WILLIAMS next year?

After slipping behind C.J. Stroud following the trade that took Carolina to the first overall spot in the 2023 draft, Bryce Young became the betting favorite again — and then he became the pick. Now that the 2023 draft has come and gone, the attention turns to next year.

And there’s already a clear favorite to be the first overall pick.

DraftKings has USC quarterback Caleb Williams at -550 to become the first name called next April in Detroit. Next on the list is North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye at +600. In third position, after a steep drop, is Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., at +2000.

Deeper on the list is South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler, at +6000. Two years ago, he was the favorite to be the first pick in the 2022 draft, while at Oklahoma.

The 2022 betting odds in 2021

Next on the list is North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell (+350), Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (+400), LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (+800), USC quarterback Kedon Slovis (+1000), Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (+1500), Georgia quarterback JT Daniels (+1800), Florida quarterback Emory Jones (+2000), Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels (+2000), and Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton (+2500).

It shows how inexact of a science it is to predict who will be drafted where a full year in advance.

And that’s the problem with betting markets and mock drafts this early in the process. It puts unfounded ideas in the heads of players, who possibly will give up remaining eligibility before finding out the hard way that the gamblers and dratniks were flat wrong about them all along.

Williams is regarded as a can’t-miss prospect, and it will surely prompt fans of the worst teams in 2023 to cross their fingers and hope that they will Crater for Caleb.

Who might go 2-15 in 2024 and have a QB opening?

Arizona?  Tampa Bay?  Washington?  Atlanta?

DETROIT

For Nick Baumgardner and Colton Pouncy of The Athletic, the conclusion is – the Lions, through their draft, showed that they are going for “it” now.

In so many ways, the 2023 NFL Draft was going to tell us how the Lions truly view themselves.

In past years, the draft was simply a chance to offer a glimmer of hope for the future, knowing the present was grim. During those dark days, Detroit had pressure to nail each pick. That’s the goal for every team, but one the Lions have struggled to accomplish at large over the years. The visions weren’t always clear. The plans often weren’t coherent. The same can’t be said of the current regime, led by GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell.

These Lions, from the top on down, are feeling themselves. Feeling encouraged by the franchise’s trajectory. Feeling good about the health of their roster. And most importantly, feeling good about their chances to take a much-desired leap from tough out to NFC contenders.

Not one of these years. This year. Their 2023 draft haul reflected that.

Let’s discuss.

The Lions’ draft picks:

1-12     Jahmyr Gibbs               RB       Alabama

1-18     Jack Campbell             LB        Iowa

2-34     Sam LaPorta               TE        Iowa

2-45     Brian Branch                 S        Alabama

3-68     Hendon Hooker          QB       Tennessee

3-96     Brodric Martin             DT        Western Kentucky

5-152   Colby Sorsdal            OT        William & Mary

7-219 Antoine Green                  WR           North Carolina

Baumgardner: So, the Lions made some noise here. Depending on which side of the fence you’re sitting, that noise is either loud booing or loud cheering. I didn’t hear too many “meh” reactions to this draft as Holmes and the Lions stuck to their board and didn’t flinch. They didn’t seem to much care about what anyone else was doing.

But, in the end, the players chosen in those first four picks probably should (and maybe need?) to start this fall. Your opening thoughts?

Pouncy: Remember that “villain” hoodie Holmes wore at the combine? Turns out, he was Draft Twitter’s villain this weekend. Holmes took the top players on his board in the first round — a running back and a linebacker — and never apologized for it. He pounded tables, nearly injured his head coach and almost took out Lions president Rod Wood with a high-five — all because he got players he truly wanted. You can’t fake that sort of enthusiasm.

People will naturally get caught up in positional value, and to an extent, it’s a fair discussion. The Lions passed on players at more premium positions and stuck to their board. Other moves, like Detroit trading three picks to move up to the third round for Brodric Martin, an under-the-radar nose tackle, were head-scratchers. But Holmes by and large came away with players who can start for the Lions immediately. It’s something he’s alluded to for months now. And when the time came, he did what he set out to do all along. The roster is better than it was before the draft started.

Baumgardner: So let’s talk about Jahmyr Gibbs first, because a few things need to be pointed out. The Lions finished last season tied with Philadelphia for the sixth-best Adjusted Line Yard number in the league. That means Detroit’s offensive line was tied with Philly’s as the sixth-best at creating space for its running backs. The offenses are different, of course, but when it comes to second-level yards, Philly goes up to No. 2 and Detroit dips to No. 15. There are other metrics that show the same thing. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams left yards on the table last year. Detroit believes, in signing David Montgomery and drafting Gibbs, it has just pulled off a major upgrade and possibly maximized its offense with Jared Goff at QB.

Gibbs is also the best pass-catching back (or at least tied with Bijan Robinson) in a year when wide receiver talent was way down. The Lions will play Gibbs and Montgomery together. They’ll use Gibbs all over the place in ways everybody thought Swift might’ve been capable of, in theory.

Frankly, I have zero issue with the Gibbs pick. The one I can’t shake, though, is taking linebacker Jack Campbell at No. 18. I like Campbell. But I struggle with it at 18.

He’s good, though, right? This is a toughie.

Pouncy: When you start to imagine the ways the offense can use Gibbs, you see the bigger picture. Think offensive weapon more than running back. The Lions were clearly trying to prevent offensive regression and did that in a major way with a move like this. They love the player and what he can offer them.

The Campbell pick is more of the same. Holmes views him as an old-school linebacker with modern-day athleticism. His relative athletic score of 9.98 was among the highest in the class. He’s a 6-foot-5 Midwesterner who considers social media a distraction, didn’t pursue NIL deals in college and spent his time leading up to the draft just enjoying some fresh air outside. In so many ways, he’s a player the Lions covet. More importantly, he’s a player who can help them in 2023.

Did the Lions overdraft him? Yes. Is he talented enough to start right away on a team that feels ready for a playoff run? That would also be a yes. Holmes said he was the best player on their board by a wide margin, so clearly, they’re trusting their instincts over anybody else’s. If he becomes a cornerstone that turns the defense from bad to great, few will look back and wonder if the Lions should’ve taken him 16 slots later. But these are two picks that absolutely need to hit.

Baumgardner: Context rules everything in this game. So many people, rightly so, want their team to draft like the Eagles. I get that. The Eagles nail this thing every year and have for some time. But the Lions aren’t the Eagles right now. Pretending every team enters every draft in the same situation and judges every pick under the same set of rules is ridiculous. And it happens way too much. This isn’t a video game. The Lions are trying to go from a team that missed the playoffs to a team that makes the playoffs. They’re still valuing fit, within their culture and scheme, over pretty much anything else on their evaluation scale.

Will that always be the case for Holmes in Detroit? If the Lions build a true, consistent playoff contender, maybe not. Take Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, for example. Do I think he’s better than Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer? Not really. Is it closer than people think? Yes. Do I think LaPorta is a better positional fit, with how he’s built and what his strengths/weaknesses are, than Mayer would be in Detroit right now? Absolutely yes.

One pick no one is griping about is Alabama defensive back Brian Branch. Detroit got him at No. 45. This might be the best value pick of the entire draft, Colton. Thoughts?

Pouncy: Branch was one of my favorite players in the draft and has been for some time. If the Lions had drafted him 18th, I wouldn’t have had a problem with it. If they had drafted him 34th, it would’ve been a steal.

At No. 45? Jumping Bill Belichick with a trade up? That’s a slam dunk. For a few reasons.

Branch was a three-year starter for Nick Saban. That alone should catch your attention. But he’s also highly instinctive, physical, versatile and carries himself like a true Alabama DB. Branch will fit like a glove in Detroit. When you hear defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn talk about his guys, a Branch-Lions pairing made too much sense not to happen. He could slot in as Detroit’s starting nickel, like, today if necessary. Instead, he’ll be afforded a year to learn from C.J. Gardner-Johnson and grow with this secondary, while giving Detroit a high-level backup as a rookie. This was by far my favorite Lions selection this weekend.

Baumgardner: The Lions took four players inside the top 50 and all of them could potentially start next year. For a team trying to make the playoffs — and advance in the playoffs — that is plenty fine. Do I have quibbles with how Holmes trades picks sometimes/doesn’t trade other times? Sure. But I also have quibbles with some calls Ben Johnson has made as offensive coordinator. I still think he has been a terrific OC, and would trust his judgment in pretty much any spot.

This was always going to be a make-or-break type draft. Being ready to compete by 2023 has always been the goal for Campbell and Holmes. Bottom line: Do I think this class can help Detroit make the playoffs, in addition to everything it did in free agency? Yes. You?

Pouncy: For the Lions, this draft was about getting better. Always was. Looking back on Holmes’ comments, time and time again, he telegraphed his plans. No one should be surprised Detroit passed on Jalen Carter. Holmes said he wanted good players who were fits for them. They got starters from ‘Bama and captains from Iowa. He said he wasn’t afraid to upgrade positions of strength. He did that, shipping off Swift for a younger, faster and potentially better version. Every move Holmes made, even the ones that are rightfully fair to question, feel like ones he would make only if he believes his roster is ready to win.

“At the end of the day, we acquire these players for a lot of different reasons,” Holmes said. “But ultimately, what are we trying to accomplish? We’re trying to win games. That’s why we acquire these players. … That’s what the ultimate goal is, and that’s what our vision is.”

Think about the franchises in this town. There have been some tough years of late, across the board. Holmes knows it. The roster he inherited was a mess. It isn’t anymore. The same guy responsible for that turnaround is now tasked with taking the next step: perennial playoff contention. For all the talk of the Lions on that trajectory, the truth of the matter is they failed to make the postseason in 2022. With this draft, they addressed some of their biggest needs, added for the present and the future and loaded up with starting-caliber prospects to make a run.

Given where this franchise has been, and how far it has come, it’s hard to fault a win-now mindset amid a city full of rebuilds.

The Lions are going for it. If that wasn’t clear before, it should be now.

DALLAS

RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT is still on the market – and Jerry Jones won’t rule out a return to the Cowboys.  David Moore of the Dallas Morning News:

Ezekiel Elliott was released nearly two months ago by the Cowboys.

And club officials still can’t bring themselves to declare it’s over.

“No, no, no, not at all,’’ owner Jerry Jones responded when asked if this draft officially signaled the end of Elliott’s playing career in Dallas. “That ship hasn’t sailed yet. We haven’t made a decision.

“We obviously drafted a running back, but a little different style than Zeke. I’m not trying to be cute. But nothing we did today changes that.’’

Dallas selected Kansas State running back Deuce Vaughn in the sixth round, setting off one of the more emotional scenes in the NFL on Saturday since his father, Chris, is the team’s assistant director of college scouting. But the 5-5 Vaughn is no replacement for Elliott’s bruising style.

The club cut Elliott because his high salary was out of whack with his declining production. The Cowboys never hit the third-leading rusher in franchise history with a significant pay cut to stay because they considered it insulting.

Nothing has really changed since that decision. But the Cowboys have been unable to close the door on this chapter because Elliott remains unsigned.

Jones was asked if he was surprised that Elliott hasn’t landed with another team.

“Not at all because I’m sure most of the clubs who could be looking at running back wanted to see what they were looking at in the draft and the results of the draft,’’ Jones said.

Every team in the league will reassess where it stands from a personnel standpoint after this draft. That should crack open the market for Elliott.

And while it’s highly unlikely Elliott returns to Dallas, Jones refuses to shut the door. The fact the Cowboys didn’t use a pick on a physical runner in this draft will lead some to speculate Elliott remains in the mix.

“That’s what we’ll be sitting here evaluating,’’ Jones said. “We’ll look and see what his situation is, what our situation is.

“But I have not ruled out Zeke.’’

On the other hand, the Cowboys have more invested, on a personal level, in their 6^th round pick than is normal. Todd Archer of ESPN.com:

For a brief moment, Chris Vaughn did not know what was happening when Dallas Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones asked him to turn in the team’s card for its sixth-round pick. After all, the picks are now automated.

But when his colleagues stood up around the draft room and Jones symbolically tossed him a napkin as if it were the card, Vaughn realized the team was ready to select his son, Deuce, a running back out of Kansas State, at No. 212 overall on Saturday.

Vaughn, the Cowboys’ assistant director of college scouting, was given the privilege of calling Deuce with the news.

“Look here, man, do you want to come to work with me next week?” Vaughn, his voice cracking, asked his son on video from the team’s draft room.

“I wouldn’t mind that at all,” Deuce answered.

Jones has been part of more than 30 drafts as the team’s owner and general manager. He has presided over No. 1 overall picks and a number of high-level trades.

“I’ve never had an experience like that in the draft room. Ever,” Jones said.

Said head coach Mike McCarthy, “In 30 years of this league, I’ve never seen anything like that. That was a very special moment.”

Leading into the draft, Vaughn, who has been with the Cowboys since 2017, did not write a report on his son. When the Cowboys discussed him in their meetings, he left. He did not want to influence the direction in any way. Just before the Cowboys were on the clock, Vaughn was starting to head up the team’s undrafted free agent process, and he was not in the draft room.

In a side hallway, his son called him and he could tell the emotions of not being selected were starting to affect Deuce. Chris put aside the scout in him and became the father, pumping up his son.

By the time Chris returned to the draft room, Jones, McCarthy, executive vice president Stephen Jones and vice president of player personnel Will McClay had decided Deuce would be the pick, but Jerry Jones was discussing other possibilities with the selection.

“It was like a joke everybody was in on except for me,” Chris said.

And the emotions poured out one more time.

“For me, it was one of the coolest things I’ve ever been involved in,” McClay said. “Just to have a guy that we value so much as an employee and the work that he does, and then to have so much positive be said about his son and then to watch the tape and see just how impactful he will be on the field, then have that moment to share that, because it’s all about family. When you talk about the Cowboys, you talk about football, you talk everything else, but you talk about family.”

Deuce, who was in Austin, Texas, with his mom, sisters and 50-60 other family and friends, was watching the draft, waiting for his chance. He quickly saw the draft room video involving his father.

“Over the past 21 years of my life and to see him react the way that he did, I’m not going to lie,” Deuce said. “It was a tearjerker.”

Deuce said he never asked his dad what the Cowboys thought about him.

“I wanted it to happen organically,” he said. “I wanted everything to fall into place as if it would. And over the past two weeks, the biggest thing we kind of echoed to each other is that I just needed a chance. It didn’t matter what round. It didn’t matter exactly what pick. I just needed a chance, a foot in the door. For it to be Dallas, oh man, it’s unbelievable.”

In three years at Kansas State, Deuce ran for 3,604 yards and 34 touchdowns and had 1,280 yards receiving. In 2022, he led the FBS in all-purpose yards with 1,936. That included 133 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. But at 5-foot-5, 179 pounds, his size was a deterrent for some teams.

“You watch him run through Alabama’s defense, breaking ankles and doing things that he did, he’ll make a believer out of you in a hurry,” Stephen Jones said.

At running back, the Cowboys have Tony Pollard, who was named to the Pro Bowl last year, playing on the franchise tag and coming off a fractured ankle he suffered in the playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers. They signed Ronald Jones as an unrestricted free agent and also have Malik Davis and Rico Dowdle. Jerry Jones said he would not rule out the potential return of Ezekiel Elliott, who was released by the team in March.

“I think clearly, Deuce can play the normal flow of our offense, first and second down,” McCarthy said. “I think stating the obvious as far as the protection component, we’ve got to work together there, but there’s some very distinct situational thoughts and concepts that I have in mind early. Randall Cobb-ish type things I’ve done in the past. Yeah, we’ll definitely have opportunities for him to take advantage of his productivity. I mean he’s a dynamic player.”

It’s something his father has known for some time.

“The ability to make plays in a variety of ways. And again, I want to say that with my evaluator cap on,” Chris said. “He can make plays a couple different ways. He’s demonstrated that. The thing I would say, you don’t have to play him necessarily differently because he is a smaller guy. His biggest runs were inside, downhill runs as opposed to always using him in space. I’m not trying to be the coach here when I say that, but what I’m saying is, he’s going to come give everything he’s got.”

And the phone call is one he won’t forget.

“That’s the best one I ever made,” Chris said, his voice cracking again. “You know, I told somebody he’s the hardest worker I know, I just happen to be his dad. It’s really refreshing to see that that’s what this league is made up of. Of guys that you can’t put a measurement on. That’s what he’s always been. I expect him to be that when he gets his opportunity that he’s earned as a player just doing it the right way.”

TAMPA BAY

Sad news in Tampa.  Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times:

Bucs linebacker Shaquil Barrett’s 2-year-old daughter, Arrayah, drowned in the swimming pool at the family’s South Tampa home Sunday morning.

According to the Tampa Police Department, officers responded to Barrett’s home in the Beach Park area of Tampa just before 9:30 a.m. in reference to a child who had fallen into a pool. The child was transported to an area hospital. Despite lifesaving measures taken, the child was pronounced deceased a short time later.

The investigation is ongoing. It is not believed to be suspicious in nature at this time, but a purely accidental and tragic incident, according to a statement released by TPD on Sunday.

“Today’s tragic news is heartbreaking for all members of the Buccaneers family,” the Bucs said in a statement. “Our thoughts and prayers are with Shaq, Jordanna and the entire Barrett family during this unimaginably difficult time. While no words can provide true comfort at a time such as this, we offer our support and love as they begin to process this very profound loss of their beloved Arrayah.”

Barrett and wife Jordanna, who were high school sweethearts, have three older children: Shaquil Jr., Braylon, Aaliyah. Arrayah was born two months after Barrett and the Bucs beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 55. He had just signed a four-year, $72 million contract with $34 million guaranteed.

ARIZONA

Peter King says the Cardinals did pretty well – picking up the best OL in the 2023 class and making deals that will own the 2024 draft.

The new Arizona GM, Monti Ossenfort, got off to an inauspicious start Thursday, having to admit he erred by making a phone call to Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon outside the permitted time for contacting coaching candidates during the playoffs. The Cardinals paid a 28-slot penalty in round three, moving down from 66 to 94 with Philadelphia as part of Ossenfort’s penance. “I made a mistake. I own that,” he said. After that, he had a strong weekend.

Ossenfort, with more holes to plug than any GM in football, made three trades in the first 34 picks—with Houston, Detroit and Tennessee. The upshot: Ossenfort traded the third overall pick, plus picks in the second, fourth and fifth rounds. In return, he got pick six (tackle Paris Johnson), pick 41 (linebacker BJ Ojulari) and pick 72 (cornerback Garrett Williams), plus a first-round pick in 2024 and two third-round picks in 2024.

The Cardinals now are scheduled to own a league-high six picks in the first three rounds next year, and the first-rounders could be pure gold. PFF data analyst Timo Riske reported that after simulating the 2023 season 10,000 times, Arizona and Houston were favored to be the two worst teams in the NFL this season. Each team, PFF said, has a 46 percent chance to have a top-five pick in the draft next year—which would mean, of course, that Arizona would have two of the top five picks in the draft next year.

Think what that could mean. Clearly, it would leave Arizona as the leader in the clubhouse for the top pick in the draft, or the ability to deal for the top pick, which could be a great quarterback—maybe Caleb Williams of USC or North Carolina’s Drake Maye. That, of course, puts pressure on Kyler Murray with a new coaching staff and administration and coming off knee surgery, to show he’s a premier player when he returns sometime this fall.

Ossenfort told me Saturday night he didn’t go into the draft with a plan to deal for so much 2024 draft currency—that’s just the way the trades fell. He did admit he made the first deal with Houston with the idea of trading back up. “It was important with that first trade to retain the option to move back up,” he said. And that, of course, was for Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson, the best tackle in the draft. The Cardinals got him at six, just ahead of the Raiders, who may have taken Johnson at seven.

One more point. If Arizona, Houston and Tennessee all struggle next year and all finish below .500, the Cardinals would have six picks in the top 75, including two early in the first round. Ossenfort may not have gone into this draft with an intention of owning the 2024 draft, but that’s exactly how it turned out.

DENVER

TE ADAM TRAUTMAN is re-united with Sean Payton.  Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com:

The New Orleans Saints sent veteran tight end Adam Trautman and a seventh-round pick (No. 257) to the Denver Broncos to move back into the sixth round of the 2023 NFL draft and select Wake Forest wide receiver A.T. Perry with pick No. 195.

The trade reunites Trautman with Broncos coach Sean Payton, who was part of the Saints organization when it selected him in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft.

The Saints gave up four picks to select Trautman, sending their picks in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds to the Minnesota Vikings to move back into the third round. The Saints did not have another pick in that draft after the trade, until they traded back into the seventh round on the following day.

Payton also signed former Saints players Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Tony Jones Jr., Michael Burton and Marquez Callaway in his first offseason in Denver.

Trautman had 60 career receptions for 641 yards and four touchdowns in 43 games with the Saints.

LAS VEGAS

Peter King was embedded with the Raiders.

Just before noon on Thursday, hours before the start of the NFL Draft, Raiders coach Josh McDaniels popped into GM Dave Ziegler’s office for one last bit of strategy talk. The team’s draft board had been set with finality Wednesday, after three months of debate. The Raiders, after conversations with teams above them about trading up from number seven in the first round, decided to stay in their slot, barring a surprise.

“What we need is for three quarterbacks to go before we pick,” McDaniels said.

It seemed logical, with Carolina going Bryce Young at number one and then Houston at two and Indianapolis at four and Seattle at five all in the QB market. But nothing in this draft after Carolina was a sure thing. All McDaniels and Ziegler knew was that these four non-QBs sat at the top of their board a short spiral away, graded closely:

JOHNSON, Paris OT

ANDERSON, Will OLB

WITHERSPOON, Devon CB

WILSON, Tyree OLB

But as Ziegler and McDaniels hashed it out, and McDaniels talked about the latest intel he’d heard about the top six (“I hope I’ll have something coming in on Houston at two, but Nick’s tight,” he said, referring to Texans GM/CIA agent Nick Caserio), they realized they were just like the rest of America: They doubted Houston would pick a quarterback at two, they didn’t know which GM was fixing to pay a ransom to trade up with Arizona at three, they didn’t know which quarterback Indianapolis would choose at four, and they didn’t know if Seattle would go QB or best defensive weapon at five.

No surprise, all this mystery. This is the modern draft, where lips are no longer loose, where mock drafts are a mockery of reality. It sounds counterintuitive, but in the hours before the NFL Draft, the people running drafts for $6 billion franchises didn’t know much more than the rest of us. Ziegler and McDaniels did know by staying put—and they would get a phone call that surprised and tempted them minutes before their pick—they were not in control of their fate. They needed help. The Raiders needed two teams post-Carolina to pick passers in the next five picks. Likely. Not certain.

At 4:43 p.m. Pacific Time, Ziegler was on his way into the draft room, a large square conference room on the third floor of the Raiders’ facility six miles west of the Vegas Strip. He stopped by the floor-to-ceiling photograph of the man who lords over this franchise 12 years after his death, and Ziegler patted the photograph of Al Davis.

“Goosebumps,” Ziegler said. “I feel his presence every day.”

Then Ziegler—47, in gray suit, black Oxford shirt, no tie, white and black sneakers—entered the draft room, where 13 scouts, personnel people, one coach and one owner would plot the immediate future of Al Davis’ team. At 4:59 p.m., 11 minutes before the draft kicked off, owner Mark Davis slipped into the room, in his white satin Raiders jacket and stonewashed faded jeans.

“Gameday, baby!” Son of Al announced to the room.

 Gameday, as Mark Davis said. “We’re still undefeated!” Davis said as Roger Goodell kicked off the draft. One wall taken up entirely with the draft board, ranking the players by position from top to bottom, on magnetic cards, the old-school way. One wall, controlled by pro personnel director Dwayne Joseph, with pick-by-pick order and team-by-team needs that change with every pick. One wall, which McDaniels, Ziegler, assistant GM Champ Kelly and Davis face, with three things: a big TV tuned to the draft, computerized pick-by-pick directly from the league, so it’s faster than what you see on TV, and a constantly updated list of trade discussions with draft-trade charts showing trade proposals broken down by a value chart.

Kelly, Ziegler (cell phone to his ear at least half of the evening), McDaniels, Davis, left to right in front of the room, in swivel chairs, able to look ahead at trade possibilities or back at the state of the draft board. Ziegler flitted from senior personnel adviser Shaun Herock to McDaniels to Davis to Kelly to director of football analytics David Christoff to senior national scouts DuJuan Daniels, Andy Dengler and Lenny McGill, having mostly hushed conversations.

5:18 p.m. PT: Panthers picked Young. “This is where the draft starts,” Ziegler, stating the obvious, said.

Four minutes later, the tinny voice from draft headquarters said, “Houston has made its pick. Arizona now on the clock.” All eyes turn to the board where the pick will show up first. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State popped onto the screen. “Oooooh,” someone in the room said. Seven minutes passed. Arizona traded down to 12 with Houston. Big compensation: For this pick and a fourth- this year, the Texans gave the Colts the 12th and 33rd overall picks this year and their first- and third-round picks next year.

5:32 p.m.: Will Anderson to Houston at three. One Vegas target down.

5:33 p.m.: Ziegler on his cell, briefly. Ziegler to McDaniels in a hushed tone: “Arizona wants to trade back up.”

Ziegler and McDaniels stared at the trade-value board in the back of the room, analyzing trade possibilities—the values, plus or minus for the Raiders, based on the numerical values Ziegler assigns to each pick:

1-7 down to 1-12

Potential Counters

+177 ARI sends 2-33, LV gives back 4th (109)

+68 ARI sends 2-33 and 6-213, LV gives back 3-100 and 4-109

+30 ARI sends 2-33, LV gives back 3-70

At 5:37 p.m., Anthony Richardson, the Florida quarterback, got picked by the Colts. The third quarterback was off the board. McDaniels beamed. He and Ziegler slapped hands. Now the Raiders were sure to get one of their four guys.

5:42 p.m.: Cards GM Monti Ossenfort called Ziegler. Hushed discussion, presumably exchanging potential offers for the pick. Then Ziegler and McDaniels huddled. Having the 12th and 33rd overall picks, to go along with the Raiders’ 38th choice, would be tempting. “We could get [Oklahoma tackle Anton] Harrison at 12,” McDaniels said. The Raiders loved Harrison—not as much as Johnson, but enough maybe to lose the fourth non-QB they love in order to pick up the 33rd pick. They mulled.

The phone went cold for a few minutes. Seemed obvious Ossenfort wanted Paris Johnson. He had to be dealing with Detroit, trying to get ahead of Vegas to ensure getting Johnson. Smart move by Ossenfort, choosing not to close a deal for the seventh pick and instead dealing for the sixth–ensuring that the Cards would get the tackle they wanted.

5:47 p.m.: Witherspoon to Seattle at five. Detroit up. No action on Ziegler’s phone. Not surprising. Arizona was targeting Johnson.

5:50 p.m.: Tinny voice from Draft HQ: “Detroit has traded its pick to Arizona. Arizona is on the clock.” For Vegas, there goes day-one starting right tackle Paris Johnson.

5:54 p.m. Paris Johnson to Arizona. “Las Vegas is on the clock,” tinny voice says.

So no real drama. The plan was preordained. There was no real debate now, no discussion about moving. Only this:

5:58 p.m.: “Tyree, this is coach McDaniels. We’re gonna turn the pick in here, and you’re gonna be a Raider.”

In a lull in front of the room, McDaniels said quietly: “Our board was right. We needed three quarterbacks to go, and we’re so happy we got one of the four non-quarterbacks who were our top-rated guys on the board. Look, we gotta rush the passer. We gotta go get [Patrick] Mahomes and [Justin] Herbert. That’s four games a year for the next few years against these great young quarterbacks. And the AFC is full of these great young quarterbacks. This is a great outcome for us.”

This is the draft. The Raiders needed long-term help opposite Maxx Crosby (edge player Chandler Jones is 33), and Anderson or Wilson would have been great. Witherspoon would have been great to add to a needy secondary. Johnson would have been great to bookend Kolton Miller. It’s capricious. The choice wasn’t up to Ziegler; other teams decided for him. But the vibe in the room, the smiles, showed this staff loves Wilson, even with the foot injury that made him an iffy candidate to some teams.

In his office 20 minutes later, McDaniels waited to be connected to Wilson to converse. “I mean, hallelujah,” McDaniels said. “His motivation, his drive, how he handles adversity … off the charts. We value the TAP test (a test in the pre-draft process that measures mental toughness, drive and composure under pressure), and Tyree got one of the highest grades on it, a Green plus-plus. He’ll fit in great here.”

McDaniels’ football ops guy, Tom Jones, walked in with a phone. Wilson. “Tyree, welcome to the nation,” McDaniels said. “Dude, I am so excited you’re a Raider. I know you’re gonna help us win a lot of games. So, just wanted to touch base on a few things. You’re gonna talk to the media here in a bit. Wanted to give you a few points. Be humble, which you are. Stay away from predictions—that way, you won’t have to eat them later. Don’t talk about timelines with your foot. You don’t want your draft story to be all about your foot. Now, you got a fan base that’s second to none. They’re gonna love you. Just express how excited you—which I know you are.”

Back in the draft room, after pick 19, Ziegler said, “Josh, you wanna look at trades?” On the board were four players with similar grades: Georgia defensive end Nolan Smith, Maryland corner Deonte Banks, Harrison the Oklahoma tackle, and Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders. Close to them: Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer.

But there wasn’t much enthusiasm to deal after Banks and Harrison went off the board. Ziegler made a couple of calls about moving up to fill a hole left by the trade of tight end Darren Waller with Mayer, but never got far—or appeared enthusiastic to do it.

INDIANAPOLIS

GM Chris Ballard tells Peter King why he went all in on QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON:

Colts GM Chris Ballard told me he’s known he was going to take green Florida QB Anthony Richardson for about a month. He understands the risks involved—Richardson started 13 college games, won six, had some dreadful days (nine of 27 versus Florida State)—but he and his staff could not unsee what the tape and workouts showed them.

I thought this was the most interesting thing Ballard said as he drove home Saturday night: “I would rather take the risk, the risk that he might fail, than pass on him and see him become a star somewhere else. We’re taking a guy not only for what he can do today but for what he can become tomorrow. I’ve told our guys here: Anthony might have some games where he’s nine of 22 for 105 yards—but in the game he’ll run 10 times for 115 yards. It just might look different for a while.”

The excitement, though, is palpable in Indy. Zak Keefer of The Athletic interviewed owner Jim Irsay at the draft and Irsay told a story about meeting with Richardson. As relayed by Keefer, Irsay told Richardson: “You play 12 or 14 years in this league and you’re an outstanding quarterback, you’re gonna make a billion dollars. A billion. A billion.”

Well, that would mean after Richardson’s rookie contract expires, Irsay would be paying him $950 million or so for the rest of his career. That’s one heck of a projection, but the future is a wild place for phenom quarterbacks, I guess.

The debate, of course, is whether Richardson should play or not play this year—some or all of this year. I’ve heard so many people, including almost everyone on TV, say you’ve got to play Richardson because he’s so inexperienced. But you can’t make the decision until you see how ready (or not ready) Richardson is. How’d playing early work out for 2022 second overall pick Zach Wilson, also inexperienced coming out of college? Not good. How did sitting most of his rookie year work out for Patrick Mahomes? Great.

So be careful what you wish for. You don’t want to rush a guy who’s not ready. Which is why it’s not a call you can make today.

“We gotta get him in here and see where he is,” Ballard said. “We don’t know. He turns 21 this month—he’s so young still. Let us figure out what he can handle before making any decisions. But there’s not many people who can do what he does. When [Colts chief personnel executive] Morocco Brown watched him, he came back and told me: ‘I’m watching this kid in practice, and I’m drooling.’”

I’ve already got one training-camp stop marked off—in pen—this summer. Two days at Colts camp to watch Anthony Richardson.

BUFFALO

GM Brandon Beene thinks holdover TE DAWSON KNOX will still be a key player for the Bills despite the first round selection of TE DALTON KINCAID.  Coral Smith of NFL.com:

Even though they didn’t pick until almost the end of Thursday’s Round 1, the Bills got their man in the end.

Trading with Jacksonville to move up two spots to No. 25 and select tight end Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo nabbed the top TE in the draft and added another weapon for QB Josh Allen.

The Bills were originally set to pick just after the Cowboys at 26th, but with Dallas also in the market for a tight end after the free agency departure of Dalton Schultz, Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane said they realized the situation was too good to pass up.

“If Dalton was not there, we would have traded back,” Beane said after Round 1, via the team website. “We had a good feeling that Dallas would take him, and we just really liked him and just felt he would be a great fit in our offense.”

Kincaid was one of the top TEs in this year’s draft class, despite a back injury that ended his 2022 season early and limited his draft workouts. A former walk-on at the University of San Diego before transferring to Utah in 2020, he ended his five seasons with 175 receptions for 2,623 yards and 35 TDs. He also recorded career highs in catches (70), receiving yards (890) and touchdowns (8) in 2022, setting him up nicely to be the first tight end off the board.

While Buffalo is clearly excited about having another offensive weapon at its disposal, Kincaid’s selection did draw questions about how his addition would affect the playing time of current Bills TE Dawson Knox, who has operated as a consistent No. 1 at the position for the last four years.

When asked about the anticipated target distribution, Beane was crystal clear that Knox is still very much part of the plan, and the idea is to have two TEs with different skillsets that can complement each other.

“Dawson’s still gonna be very involved,” Beane said, via SI.com. “Dawson is a clearly better in-line blocker, still a receiving threat. I don’t think Dawson’s gonna be going anywhere.”

Kincaid’s appeal lies more in his abilities as a pass-catcher, and his versatility and athleticism mean he can line up different ways and run routes like a smaller receiver. Having that flexibility at tight end to go back and forth between Kincaid and Knox will only allow the offense to put out more varied looks with one or both of them on the field.

“(Kincaid)’s a tight end, but he’s a receiving tight end,” Beane said. “We think he’ll pair well with Dawson and give us another target. … He’s not your standard Y tight end, he’s gonna be flexed out more than necessarily you would do with Dawson.”

For his part, Kincaid is embracing the chance to learn from his new teammate, whom he considers to be one of the best in the league.

“Knox is just right up there with the tight ends as well, so it’s going to be awesome to just learn from him and learn from Josh (Allen),” Kincaid said, via the official Bills’ website. “I think just joining the Bills Mafia is going to be one of the coolest things. They’re such an established fanbase and they’re very well-known.”

And it looks like there’s a mutual feeling of excitement around this pairing’s potential. As the news of Kincaid’s selection broke Thursday night, Knox took to Twitter to post a GIF saying “This is where the fun begins.”

THIS AND THAT

2023 DRAFT

With the exception of the Patriots, the NFL bypassed Jackson State and all the other HBCU’s in the draft.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Former Jackson State coach Deion Sanders no longer leads an HBCU program. But he’s still advocated for players historically Black institutions.

Sanders, now the head coach at Colorado, tweeted on Saturday that he’s “ashamed” of the 31 teams that did not select a single HBCU player during the draft. Only the Patriots used a draft pick on a player from an HBCU school, taking former Jackson State cornerback Isaiah Bolden at No. 245.

“We had 3 more draft worthy players at JSU,” Sanders tweeted.

On one hand, teams are looking for the best possible players, wherever they can find them. On the other hand, if teams aren’t devoting sufficient resources to scouting HBCU schools and players, who will they be able to make reliable projections when comparing players from so many different schools at once?

Opportunities will come via undrafted free agency. And players from HBCU schools will have a chance to compete, and to thrive — as did Walter Payton, Jerry Rice, Mel Blount, Steve McNair, Shannon Sharpe, Michael Strahan, and more.

– – –

The Eagles take two players loved by the draft “experts” if not actual NFL teams and they are credited with a hugely successful haul.  The Lions shun the opinion of the “experts” – mainly in terms of positional value and not actual ability to play football – and they will get low grades.

Let’s start with Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com who has been passing these grades out for decades. (And, surprise, he likes the Lions draft!)

There is nothing that infuriates teams, general managers and personnel guys las much as draft grades immediately after the NFL Draft.

So here goes.

Yeah, I know we can’t really grade a draft until three years after the conclusion. That’s why I always go back and re-grade the draft and my own grades three years later. Sometimes, we all look like idiots — general mangers included.

In this draft, which was considered a weak draft at the top, there are four teams that stood out, four teams that earned ‘A’ grades from me. They were the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. I loved what those teams did. That might not synch up with other graders, but those are my teams that did really well over three days of drafting.

The Eagles and Bengals were already Super Bowl contenders, the Cowboys were close and now some think this draft will get the Lions into the mix in a weakened NFC.

As for the losers, there were no major disasters, so no ‘D’s or ‘F’s, but I did give out a few ‘C-‘ grades.

Just remember, we have to wait three years for this draft. Well, we used to. The Jets gave up on Zach Wilson after two years and it seems like the Titans have given up on Malik Willis after one, so that used to be the formula.

For me, it remains that way.

So grades now and a re-grade in three years.

Eat them alive.

Arizona Cardinals: B+

Best Pick: Second-rounder B.J. Ojulari can rush the passer with speed, which they need in a bad way. He was a little undersold in this draft, but he can be a 10-sacks-a-season player on the next level.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love the choice of third-round corner Garrett Williams. He’s coming off a torn ACL and there were better options. But they are turning over the roster, so I get it. They can be a little more patient.

The Skinny: Monti Ossenfort did a nice job trading down from the third spot and still getting tackle Paris Johnson in the first round. They added a 2024 first-round pick from the Texans in doing so, which is huge. The rest of the draft was filled with talented players who need to fill a roster that lacked a lot of top-level players. They also have a bunch of picks next year, including two in the first round. It was a good start for Ossenfort.

Atlanta Falcons: C-

Best Pick: I love fourth-round corner Clark Phillips. He is a small corner, but he can cover and will hit. He will be a really good slot corner for a long time in the NFL.

Worst Pick: I like Bijan Robinson as a player. I just don’t think backs in the top 10 make sense anymore. Arthur Smith likes to run the ball, but this is a passing league. Check back with me in four years.

The Skinny: It’s obvious by their draft what Smith’s top priority is for this team. He wants to run the ball like he did with Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Getting Robinson and second-round pick Matthew Bergeron as a starting guard will help that run game. But did they really need a back with Tyler Alllgeier on the roster? I didn’t love this draft.

Baltimore Ravens: C+

Best pick: It was their first one. I really like receiver Zay Flowers for their new offense. New coordinator Todd Monken and Lamar Jackson will come to love this kid. He has the tools to give them a true outside playmaking threat for the next five years or so.

Worst Pick: I didn’t like the pick of linebacker Trenton Simpson in the third round. He’s inconsistent. By drafting him, they are admitting they missed on 2019 first-round pick Patrick Queen since Simpson will be a replacement in 2024.

The Skinny: I liked the pick of Flowers, but the rest of the draft didn’t excite me. Fifth-round corner Kyu Blu Kelly has talent and fits the defense. But there’s not a ton to like about this draft. Then again, the draft was a sideshow this year to getting Lamar Jackson signed just before the draft began. That’s the best thing that happened this past week for the Ravens. That makes them competitive in the AFC North.

Buffalo Bills: B-

Best Pick: Second-rounder O’Cyrus Torrence has first-round talent, which makes this a heck of a pick. The guard is a nasty, violent player who will amp up a run game that badly needs it. He does need to get in better shape. But he moves people.

Worst Pick: The Bills needed help at linebacker with Tremaine Edmunds gone in free agency, but I think there were better options than Dorian Williams, their third-round pick. He has speed, so that has to be what they loved about his game.

The Skinny: They took tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first, which will help the passing game. He is a move tight end who will make things easier in the middle of the field. He’s not a great blocker. Torrence will be a brute if his knees hold up. Fifth-round receiver Justin Shorter is a taller receiver who can run.

Carolina Panthers: B+

Best Pick: It would be easy to say it’s Bryce Young, but I am going to go with second-round receiver Jonathan Mingo. I think Mingo has the tools to be their No. 1 receiver in a year, which Young will love. He is strong and really was a player who scouts loved more than maybe draft Twitter did.

Worst Pick: Third-round pass rusher D.J. Johnson went a little high for my liking. He has some talent, but he didn’t play to it. He was a tight end at some points of his college career, which shows he has athletic ability.

The Skinny: Their entire draft will be decided by how good quarterback Bryce Young is after they moved up to take him. He’s the best passer in this class, but you can’t ignore his size. The question is whether he can hold up. We’ve never seen a player like him before in terms of size at the quarterback position. If he’s a star, this is a killer draft. If not, it will cost people their jobs.

Chicago Bears: B+

Best Pick: Fourth-round running back Roschon Johnson is the type of back who can come in and push for carries right away. Would it shock anybody if he were a starter in a year or two? It wouldn’t shock me.

Worst Pick: Second-round defensive tackle Gervin Dexter from Florida looks the part, but he didn’t always play to his talent. If he can get more consistent, this will be a good pick. If not, it could be a major miss.

The Skinny: I didn’t like them trading down and passing on Jalen Carter in the first round. They moved down one spot and took tackle Darnell Wright, who is a good player, but they had a chance to get Carter, the best player in the draft. They added a lot of big bodies the rest of the way. They made a smart move to trade the top overall pick to land a great package from the Panthers, including a first next year. They are moving this team in the right direction.

Cincinnati Bengals: A

Best Pick: I like second-round corner D.J. Turner from Michigan State. He is fast and can fit into Lou Anarumo’s scheme. They are getting younger and cheaper in the secondary, which they had to do. That works.

Worst Pick: I really liked their draft, so it’s nitpicking when I say what I didn’t like was them not picking an offensive lineman. They need more help up front, so that’s the only flaw of this draft. You can never have enough big people to protect Joe Burrow.

The Skinny: Duke Tobin, the Bengals’ director of player personnel, knew that his defense had to be replenished for a chance to get to the Super Bowl. Plus, they need cheap guys to help save money to pay the explosive offensive players. He did just that. He added a pass rusher in Myles Murphy, a fast corner in Turner and a smart safety in Jordan Battle. That’s how you keep a team moving forward, especially one with a dynamic offense. Well done.

Cleveland Browns: B+

Best pick: I love third-round pick Siaki Ika from Baylor. He is a big, powerful man who will help their run defense in a big way. He is also better pushing the pocket than people think. He needs to keep his weight in check.

Worst Pick: Their worst pick could end up being their best. How? It’s fourth-round right tackle Dawand Jones. If he can get his weight down — and there were stories of him being close to 400 at his pro day — he can be a quality starter. If not, major bust.

The Skinny: I really like their draft. They didn’t have picks in the first or second (see: Deshaun Watson trade), but they made the most of the rest of the draft. I love Ika and fellow third-round pick, receiver Cedric Tillman. Sixth-round center Luke Wypler has starter qualities, especially in their offense. If Watson reverts to from, this draft is sensational. Until then, we can’t give it an ‘A’. 

Dallas Cowboys: A

Best pick: Fourth-round edge rusher Viliami Fehoko was the captain of my Better-Than team. He is a power player who plays with violence. He isn’t twitchy, but he has the ability to get 6-7 sacks a season. He will be in the rotation as a rookie.

Worst Pick: I wasn’t as high on third-round linebacker Demarion Overshawn as some. He can run, but he’s just too inconsistent. They have to love his speed as a converted safety, but the tape was inconsistent.

The Skinny: I loved first-round defensive tackle Mazi Smith, who will be a force on their front, especially in the run game. Fehoko will prove to be a quality rotational player. Second-round tight end Luke Schoonmaker was a nice pick. They picked three players on my Better-Than team in Smith, Fehoko (captain) and Schoonmaker. So I like this draft. Sixth-round running back Deuce Vaughn isn’t big, but he can play.

Denver Broncos: B-

Best Pick: Second-round receiver Marvin Mims can fly. He averaged over 20 yards per catch at Oklahoma, which will help the passing game and get Russell Wilson going.

Worst Pick: It was giving up the first-round pick for Wilson and paying him. He didn’t come close to playing to that value last year and might be on the decline in a big way. Can Sean Payton turn his career back around?

The Skinny: They didn’t have a first-round pick, trading it to Seattle in the Russell Wilson deal, then giving up one they acquired from Miami for Bradley Chubb to New Orleans to make Payton their coach. But they added some good players. Their draft wasn’t great, but it was solid. Third-round linebacker Drew Sanders has tools to become a quality starter.

Detroit Lions: A

Best Pick: I love the pick of tight end Sam LaPorta in the second round. He’s a playmaking tight end who can run like a receiver. Jared Goff will love him. The offense will be better with his skills.

Worst Pick: Can you like a player and not like the pick? That’s the way I see it with 12th overall pick Jamyr Gibbs. He is a running back who is more of an air back, but I still think he went too high. You don’t take backs that high.

The Skinny: The Lions and general manager Brad Holmes did some really good things over the weekend. They have positioned their roster for now and the future if third-round quarterback Hendon Hooker is good. I don’t like taking a back high, but Gibbs might be more than that. Watch out for third-round defensive tackle Brodric Martin. He is a power player inside. Nice job.

Green Bay Packers: B+

Best pick: Second-round tight end Luke Musgrave will be a nice addition to their offense for Jordan Love. Tight ends are security blankets for young quarterbacks and Musgrave will be that.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love second-round receiver Jayden Reed with better options on the board. Reed can run, but he wasn’t one of my top-10 receivers.

The Skinny: It was obvious that they wanted to get help for Jordan Love in the passing game and also for their defensive front, which the did. They added four pass catches and two defensive front players, including first-round edge rusher Lukas Van Ness. This draft would have made Aaron Rodgers happy. Too bad it’s all for Love.

Houston Texans: B

Best Pick: Third-round pick Tank Dell will bring electrifying speed to the passing game, which will make rookie C.J. Stroud a happy man. Dell will be an immediate impact player as a return man.

Worst Pick: It’s not the player in Will Anderson Jr., but it’s what they gave up to get him. They moved up to the third spot in a trade with Arizona, but they gave up way too much. Anderson better be a Hall of Fame rusher, and I don’t think he will be.

The Skinny: They feel like they got two long-term important positions solved here by taking Stroud with the second overall pick at quarterback and Anderson as their edge guy. I just think they gave up way too much for Anderson. If Anderson is Von Miller, this could be an all-time drat. Dell will be a steal. Stroud has to prove to be their franchise quarterback, which they think he can be. Center Juice Struggs was over-drafted in the second round in my book.

Indianapolis Colts: B

Best Pick: Second-round corner Julius Brents fits perfectly into the Gus Bradley scheme. He is a long corner who has a lot of cover ability. Nice pick.

Worst Pick: Third-round receiver Josh Downs went a little higher than I would have taken him, He’s a solid player, but I don’t think he will be as good as some others do.

The Skinny: Their draft will be decided by what quarterback Anthony Richardson becomes as a player. He was taken in the first round with the fourth overall pick, which could pay off in a big way. Richardson has the tools to become a star with development. I liked Will Levis more, but I see why the Colts took him. They had some nice picks after Richardson, including Brents, fellow corner Darius Rush and tight end Will Mallory in the fifth.

Jacksonville Jaguars: B-

Best Pick: I really like fifth-rounder Yasir Abdullah from Louisville. He is a tough, physical player who can rush off the edge, which the Jaguars need. He was on my Better-Than team.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love the pick of running back Tank Bigsby in the third round. He’s a solid enough back, but there were better options and they could have used that pick for defense. He was picked to help their problems in short-yardage situations.

The Skinny: Trading down and adding picks and still getting tackle Anton Harrison makes sense, considering they have to give Trevor Lawrence a mega-deal, which means cheap labor will be needed. That’s also why having 13 picks matters. But I didn’t love the second-round pick (TE Brenton Strange) or Bigsby that much. They better hope a lot of those third-day guys play. I liked fifth-round safety Antonio Johnson and sixth-round corner Christopher Braswell in addition to Abdullah.

Kansas City Chiefs: C-

Best Pick: Second-round receiver Rashee Rice is a big-bodied receiver who doesn’t have blazing speed, but he can help try to fill the void that JuJu Smith-Schuster left when he departed in free agency. I think they had better choices on the board when they picked Rice.

Worst Pick: First-round pass rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah fills a need, but his tape wasn’t as impressive as I expected. He did play reduced to an interior alignment too much for Kansas State, which he won’t do for the Chiefs, which will help.

The Skinny: It’s hard to doubt this organization, but I didn’t love this draft. I think they left meat on the bone. I think there were better options when they picked the positions they did. After what they did in last year’s draft, pinging them is tough. This wasn’t a wow draft, yet with Patrick Mahomes they don’t really need those anymore.

Las Vegas Raiders: B+

Best Pick: I went with fourth-round corner Jakorian Bennett. He is a speedy corner who was on my Better-Than team because he really impressed on tape. The Raiders nailed this one. He will be a starting corner at some point as a rookie.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love third-round receiver Tre Tucker. He was a reach. Despite great speed, he had three 100-yard games in his career. There were better options, but we know how this team loves speed.

The Skinny: In addition to Bennett in the fourth, I liked their first three picks. First-rounder Tyree Wilson has the tools to be a Pro Bowl player on a consistent basis and second-round tight end Mike Mayer was the best at his position in this draft. Third-round defensive tackle Byron Young is a rising player who plays hard all the time. If Wilson is who they think he is, which is a dominant pass rusher, they got a solid haul.

Los Angeles Chargers: C+

Best Pick: I love third-round linebacker Daiyan Henley, who is a fast, speedy linebacker. The Chargers have run-defense issues and adding help in the front seven was a top priority.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love the pick of receiver Quentin Johnston in the first round. There were better options on the board at receiver and they needed help inside on defense. He does fit their receiver profile.

The Skinny: By getting Henley and third-round edge Tuli Tuipulotu, the Chargers addressed a defense that needed it. But they didn’t get a run stuffer inside, which they need, although sixth-round defensive tackle Scott Matlock has talent. Johnston has to be a Pro Bowl-type of talent for this draft to really hit.

Los Angeles Rams: B

Best Pick: Second-round offensive lineman Steve Avila is a nasty mauler who can play both guard and center. The Rams need help on their line, which is why Avila was a perfect pick.

Worst Pick: I didn’t like the pick of Stetson Bennett in the fourth round. Will he ever be anything more than a backup? I doubt it. So why bother?

The Skinny: The Rams didn’t have a first-round pick — shocking, right? — but they made the most of the picks they did have. They picked a lot of good players. In addition to Avila, I liked a lot of their picks, including third-round edge Byron Young. Sixth-round corner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson is a quality player, who could be a good nickel. This team is being overhauled and this is the kind of draft that gives a team some good, young bodies to help make it happen.

Miami Dolphins: C-

Best Pick: I like third-round running back Devon Achane. In this scheme, with his one-cut ability and speed, he will be a home-run threat as soon as this season. Maybe the Dolphins won’t abandon the run as quickly as they did last season.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love taking South Carolina corner Cam Smith in the second round. He has talent, but he didn’t always play to it. He needs to be more consistent, but Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard will help that.

The Skinny: They lost their first-round pick because they violated the league’s policy on integrity of the game when they tampered with Tom Brady. So their first pick was Smith, which I didn’t like. The rest of the draft was just OK, and they didn’t take an offensive lineman with their first three picks, waiting until the seventh round when they took tackle Ryan Hayes. That could end up being a problem.

Minnesota Vikings: C-

Best Pick: It’s first-round receiver Jordan Addison. I think he was the best receiver in this class, so they got value after three others were taken before him. He will be a nice 1-2 complement to Justin Jefferson.

Worst Pick: I didn’t like the pick of USC corner Mekhi Blackmon in the third round. There were a lot better options on the board when they picked Blackmon, even though corner is a major need.

The Skinny: After Addison, I didn’t love their draft. I do like fifth-round defensive tackle Jacquelin Roy from LSU. He has talent and he’s strong. Seventh-round running back DeWayne McBride was on my Better-Than team, so I like him. He does have some health issues and he doesn’t catch the football.

New England Patriots: C+

Best Pick: I liked fifth-round guard Atonio Mafi more than I liked their fourth-round guard Sidy Sow. Mafi is a mauler who just needs to improve his technique since he was a defensive player to start his college career. The Patriots will do that for him.

Worst Pick: They took a a kicker in Chad Ryland from Maryland in the fourth round. Why? You can find kickers. And it’s not like Ryland was automatic. Kickers come and go. Don’t like it. At least they waited to take the punter in the sixth.

The Skinny: They had seven picks in the first five rounds, but I am not sure they used them very well. First-round corner Christian Gonzalez will be a star. The kicker made no sense. I didn’t love second-round edge Keion White or Sow. Sixth-round receiver Kayshon Boutte has a ton of talent, but has off-field issues that Bill Belichick will have to fix. Smallish receiver Demario Douglas is one of my Better-Than guys in this draft. A kicker and a punter in the same draft? That’s over-thinking it.

New Orleans Saints: B

Best Pick: Third-round running back Kendre Miller is a tough runner who will give them a nice combo with Alvin Kamara. Miller will bring back the power part of the offense like Mark Ingram used to do when he split carries with Kamara.

Worst Pick: I didn’t like edge Isaiah Foskey as much as some scouts. They took him in the second round, but I think that was in large part because they had to take somebody at the position. The need was there, but does he solve it?

The Skinny: They took defensive tackle Bryan Bresee in the first, which filled a major need. Bresee has a ton of talent, but injuries and other issues prevented him from truly playing to it. If healthy, he can be dominant. Foskey also filled a need, but there were better options. I like Miller and fourth-round guard Nick Saldiveri as major bargains. Sixth-round receiver A.T. Perry has talent and was productive in college.

New York Giants: B-

Best Pick: Third-round receiver Jalin Hyatt will give them a speed threat on the outside. If he learns the entire route tree early, he will give them a home-run threat.

Worst Pick: I differed from a lot of evaluators, but I didn’t like second-round center John Michael Schmitz as much as some. I know he fills a need, but there were better options.

The Skinny: First-round corner Deonte Banks fills a major need and he has the tools to be an outstanding man-cover player. Hyatt will help the passing game, but I didn’t love their draft as much as others. Fifth-round running back Eric Gray has talent. They did fill some important spots.

New York Jets: B

Best Pick: Jarrick Bernard-Converse, their sixth-round pick, is a talented player with a lot of starts. He’s a bigger corner who can play safety. Love the pick.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love first-round pick Will McDonald. I know he was miscast some in Iowa State’s defense, but I think he went too high. At this spot, he has to be a dynamic edge player. Can he be?

The Skinny: They took a defensive lineman and an offensive lineman with their first two picks, which is alway a good strategy. Joe Tippman, the second-round center-guard, is a good player who could push for time as a rookie as they upgrade their line. I liked their down-the-line guys more in Bernard-Converse, tackle Carter Warren and running back Israel Abanikanda. The best news they had: Aaron Rodgers is in the fold. They have their quarterback.

Philadelphia Eagles: A

Best Pick: It’s their first pick, defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Yes, he has some off-field issues, but he is the best player in this draft. As one scout told me, he’s generational. If he can stay away from issues, and work harder at the game, he will be a Hall of Fame player.

Worst Pick: It’s hard to find a bad pick, so I will nitpick and say I didn’t love safety Sydney Brown in the third as much as others did. They did need a safety, but I liked some other guys better in that spot.

The Skinny: Howie Roseman killed it with his haul this year. Getting Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round with their two picks is an impressive draft for a team that needed to get young players up front. Third-round guard Tyler Steen is a good player, who will be a starter in a year to two. Then they traded to land running back D’Andre Swift from the Lions. Nice job.

Pittsburgh Steelers: B+

Best Pick: I like fourth-round edge player Nick Herbig from Wisconsin. He is a perfect fit for that the Steelers want in their rush players. He will be a hit on the outside in their scheme, although some think he should play inside. I don’t.

Worst Pick: I didn’t like the pick of Darnell Washington in the third round. I just don’t think he’s sudden enough, and he has knee issues. Please put weight on him and make him a tackle. He can be Jason Peters 2.0.

The Skinny: They traded up to land Broderick Jones in the first round, which will be an immediate help up front, and that was a must. Second-round corner Joey Porter Jr. was a nice pick as well, playing for the same team as his father. They did a solid job all the way around. Second-round tackle Keanu Benton didn’t play up to his traits, but he has the body.

San Francisco 49ers: C-

Best Pick: Sixth-round pick Dee Winters is a perfect 49ers linebacker. He can run and hit and knows how to find the football. This converted safety will be a good special-teams player as he learns behind the 49ers’ special linebacker group.

Worst Pick: Taking kicker Jake Moody in the third round is way too high. I hate that. Kickers come and go, so why not just bring two to camp and let them compete? Haven’t teams learned yet from drafting kickers?

The Skinny: They didn’t have a first- or second-round pick because of the trade up to draft Trey Lance two years ago and the trade to acquire Christian McCaffrey last year. One out of two isn’t bad, I guess. They did have three third-round picks and used them at a variety of spots. Third-round safety Ji’Ayir Brown is a big hitter.  I didn’t love this draft

Seattle Seahawks: B+

Best Pick: It was their first, corner Devon Witherspoon. He is a talented player, but he weighs 185 pounds. That’s the concern, especially the way he throws his body around.

Worst Pick: I didn’t like the decision to take running back Zach Charbonnet in the second round. He’s a good player, but they have Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks love them some running backs.

The Skinny: Getting Witherspoon and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round will really improve this roster. Both will be starters right away. I didn’t love the rest of their draft, but they had a lot of picks. General manager John Schneider usually does well with those picks and is coming off an outstanding draft last year. So it’s tough to doubt him. Keep an eye on fourth-round defensive tackle Cameron Young and seventh-round running back Kenny McIntosh.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B-

Best Pick: Second-round pick Cody Mauch is a nasty player who will step in and likely be a starter at guard. He was a college tackle, but he is more guard than tackle in my mind. That line will be happy he’s around.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love the pick of pass rusher YaYa Diaby in the third round. I didn’t love his tape, but I get it since they need help at edge. He is athletic, so this is a traits pick in my mind.

The Skinny: First-round defensive tackle Calijah Kancey is a player who can really amp up their interior pass rush. Playing next to Vita Vea, he is the perfect complement. I liked that pick. Mauch is a nice second-round choice. Keep an eye on fifth-round pick SirVocea Dennis, a linebacker from Pittsburgh. Seventh-round receiver Trey Palmer can fly. This was a draft based on speed. They got faster.

Tennessee Titans: B

Best Pick: Yes, it’s taking Will Levis in the second round. They made the move up to go get him, which was the right thing to do. He had a rough first night, but this is a great spot for him to sit behind Ryan Tannehill. He has the talent to be a big-time passer in the league — no matter what the masses think.

Worst Pick: I like third-round running back Tyjae Spears, but he has some injury issues and I think they had more pressing needs. Spears will be a nice change of pace back to Derrick Henry, but it seems like a luxury pick for the Titans.

The Skinny: Getting offensive lineman Peter Skoronski in the first round and Levis in the second were good picks. Skoronski can be an All-Pro, while Levis has the tools to be a big-time starter. The rest of their draft didn’t wow me, but sixth-round tackle Jaelyn Duncan has talent. This is a draft that will be defined by Levis.

Washington Commanders: B+

Best Pick: First-round corner Emmanuel Forbes is light at 170 pounds, but he can play. He is a big-play specialist who can cover. He is needed in that secondary. He will push for time right away.

Worst Pick: I didn’t love the pick of guard Braeden Daniels in the fourth round. I think there were better options. He is a developmental guy in my book. He played tackle in college, but should move inside.

The Skinny: They needed to get help in the secondary and on the offensive line, which they did. In addition to Forbes, second-round safety-corner Jartavius Martin is a good player who can do a lot of things. Fifth-round pass rusher K.J. Henry has a ton of talent and will help behind Chase Young and Montez Sweat, who will be looking for new deals soon. This draft showed one thing: They firmly believe in Sam Howell — and they should —even if nobody wants to believe it.

– – –

Let’s check in with Dane Brugler of The Athletic who goes 1 to 32, not A to F:

This is my spin on draft grades. After the NFL Draft each year, I rank my favorite (and least favorite) draft classes, from 1 to 32.

I don’t use any special formula or analytical metric to come up with the order, I simply go by which team got me the most pumped about their draft hauls. Obviously, teams with multiple early-round picks will show up higher in the rankings than those with fewer selections.

Also, future picks or veteran players do not factor into these rankings. For example, I think the Arizona Cardinals did an outstanding job adding 2024 draft picks and positioning themselves to build through next year’s draft, but these rankings are based strictly on the prospects drafted and the values of where they were selected.

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Favorite pick: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia

In the first round, the Eagles nabbed two players from the top 12 of my overall rankings: Jalen Carter at No. 9, then Smith after he fell to No. 30. No one would have been surprised had Smith been the pick for the Eagles in the top 10, so the value to get him 20 spots later is impressive. Smith fits what the organization covets at edge rusher, and he lands where he can learn from Hassan Reddick and Brandon Graham while he continues to develop his skills.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

It is important to note that the Eagles didn’t trade up in the fourth to get Ringo. They traded into the draft to take him, using a 2024 third-round pick to get it done. While he’s not a polished player right now, Ringo has big-time traits with his size and speed, and he lands where he can be developed and compete for playing time down the road. On Day 3, NFL teams take swings on high-end traits. Ringo embodies that.

2. Indianapolis Colts

Favorite pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The Colts and Chris Ballard definitely have a type: big, athletic players with high-end traits (WR Josh Downs must have been a Shane Steichen pick). That focus paid off in this draft class. It started in the first round with Richardson, who brings a level of excitement to an offense that has been stuck on the veteran quarterback carousel. The success likely won’t be immediate, but over time, it will be fun to track his development.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina

So many options here. Adetomiwa Adebawore fell much further than most expected. Jake Witt (and his story) is one of my favorite sleepers in the draft. But I’ll go with Rush, who went a round later than I expected. At 6-foot-2 and 198 pounds, he has outstanding speed (4.36) and athleticism with the ability to run routes better than wide receivers. I need to see improved tackling and instincts from him, but he has gotten better each season and will continue to develop in Indianapolis.

3. Houston Texans

Favorite pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

These rankings focus just on the players added, not on trade value or compensation given up. Unsurprisingly, then, the Texans rank pretty high as they landed two of the best players in the draft class. Will Anderson Jr. is a cornerstone player that Houston can build around, but Stroud gives the organization an exciting future at the sport’s most important position.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jarrett Patterson, C, Notre Dame

I liked Juice Scruggs better, but my grade on Patterson wasn’t too far behind — and the Texans grabbed the Notre Dame lineman four rounds later than it took Scruggs. Patterson isn’t a top-tier athlete, and his lack of length shows at times, but he is a skilled player with alert eyes and stubborn hands. His guard-center experience will provide valuable depth at multiple positions.

4. Seattle Seahawks

Favorite pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

The Seahawks had one of the best draft classes last year, and history should be kind to their 2023 draft haul too. Adding Devon Witherspoon to the cornerback rotation is exciting, but dropping Smith-Njigba into this offense is even more fun. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett already established as playmakers, the Ohio State slot receiver should be able to feast over the middle of the field. It won’t be a surprise if Geno Smith goes to his second straight Pro Bowl after this season.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Anthony Bradford, G, LSU

My 101st-ranked player, Bradford went a few picks later than that and could easily outplay that draft slot. Broadly built at 6-4, 332, he has impressive movement skills for his body type and the power to move defenders with sheer force. Youthful habits (excessive leaning, timing issues, etc.) might keep him from earning a starting job right away, but his upside is exciting.

5. Chicago Bears

Favorite pick: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

Darnell Wright is a plug-and-play right tackle and will help stabilize the offensive line. The two defensive tackles Chicago took on Day 2 also will pay immediate dividends. But my favorite Bears’ pick was Scott, whom I ranked as a top-50 player. A former high school option running back, he transitioned to wide receiver for the Bearcats and took a big jump on his 2022 tape. Scott has 4.3 speed, surprising ball skills and could take over the Darnell Mooney role in the future.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas

One of the cleanest prospects in the draft, Johnson has A-plus character, passing-down skills and core special-teams value. And, oh yeah, he’s pretty good with the ball in his hands. Highly recruited as a quarterback out of high school, Johnson was a do-everything player behind Bijan Robinson, but he would have started at 80 percent of the other FBS programs.

6. Green Bay Packers

Favorite pick: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State

I love what the Packers did in the first four rounds, especially with the two tight ends they took on Friday. In my Day 2 mock draft, I projected Musgrave to Green Bay because of the way he fits the team’s profile and the potential impact he can make in that offense. With his diverse athletic background, Musgrave is a big, loose athlete who can run the seam, stem defenders or create movement as a combo tight end.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Colby Wooden, DT, Auburn

Wooden will prove himself to be a valuable part of the defensive line rotation immediately, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he logs starting-level snaps. With his active play style and length, he can pry open gaps or unwind and flow to the football.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers

Favorite pick: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

You have to go back over a quarter-century to find the last time the Steelers used a first-round pick on an offensive tackle. It was overdue, and Broderick Jones should develop into a long-term starter. But I have to go with his Georgia teammate, who went 50-60 picks later than expected. Washington is one of the most unique players in the draft (which isn’t always a positive thing), but if he puts it all together, this pick will look like a steal.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Cory Trice Jr., CB, Purdue

The final player from my top-100 to be selected, Trice is a supersized cornerback with an elite athletic profile. He was hampered by injuries the past two seasons, but if healthy, he has starting traits with experience at both corner and safety. With their seven picks, the Steelers drafted six players that ranked in my top 100.

8. Buffalo Bills

Favorite pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

I loved what Buffalo did on Day 2, adding a plug-and-play guard and toolsy linebacker with upside. But I keep returning to the Kincaid pick as one of my favorite fits in the entire draft. Kincaid can be a starting slot receiver for Josh Allen and give the offense an extra dimension it has been searching for the last few seasons. I can easily make an argument that Kincaid is the best pass catcher in this draft, regardless of position.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Nick Broeker, G, Ole Miss

A good value pick in the seventh round, Broeker is a strong, assignment-sound player. He might not have the explosiveness or knock-back power desired at the position, but when his technique and leverage remain on the same page, Broeker stays attached and loses slowly. He has experience outside at left tackle but projects as immediate depth at guard. He is a great fit for the Bills’ scheme.

9. Detroit Lions

Favorite pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

We can debate the “value” of where each player was drafted, but it’s hard to dislike the collection of players the Lions added. I love Jahmyr Gibbs, but my favorite value was Branch in the mid-second round. Though he doesn’t have ideal size (190 pounds) or speed (4.58), Branch’s tape shows a damn good football player, especially as a nickel. It will be interesting to see how the Lions align their defensive backs.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Colby Sorsdal, G/T, William & Mary

Sorsdal was a later watch for me, and it’s fair to say I didn’t give him enough credit. At 6-5, 304, he is an athletic mover with a ton of experience and offers position versatility. I heard from multiple teams how well he interviewed and how his football character would resonate with coaches. It’s no mystery why he landed in Detroit.

10. Cleveland Browns

Favorite pick: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

Despite not picking until No. 74, the Browns found tremendous value and landed five players in my top 100. After his breakthrough 2021 season, Tillman entered last season as a borderline first-round pick. He missed half the season with an ankle injury, though, which put a discount sticker on his draft tag — and gave Cleveland a steal. Tillman was one of the few true “X” receivers in this class and will make an impact as a rookie.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Isaiah McGuire, Edge, Missouri

I easily could have gone with Ohio State offensive linemen Dawand Jones or cornerback Cameron Mitchell, who’s reuniting with former Northwestern teammate Greg Newsome. But defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz loves to collect pass rushers that he can rotate, and McGuire has the speed-to-power skills to make plays as a rookie. Browns fans will enjoy this: McGuire was the pass rusher who gave new Steelers left tackle Broderick Jones the most trouble on the 2022 tape.

11. Atlanta Falcons

Favorite pick: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse

Bijan Robinson might be a top-10 back in the league already, but my favorite pick among Atlanta’s class is Bergeron, who almost heard his name called (by Dallas) in the first round. Despite playing left tackle in college, he is a great option inside at left guard and fits the Falcons’ scheme like a glove. He also provides depth at tackle if Atlanta needs to reshuffle things to get its best five on the field. The Falcons drafted both the best runner and arguably the best run blocker in this draft.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah

The Falcons added several new bodies to their cornerback depth chart this offseason, but Phillips is the most intriguing of the group. He is underwhelming from size (5-9, 185) and speed (4.51) standpoints, but his quick-reaction skills and ability to disrupt the catch point (six interceptions in 2022) will translate well to the pro game. Phillips has the ingredients of a playmaking nickel.

12. Carolina Panthers

Favorite pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

I’m not nearly as high on Jonathan Mingo or DJ Johnson as others, which dropped the Panthers a little bit in these rankings. I love the two players Carolina added on Day 3, however, and it selected the best prospect in the draft at No. 1. Young is special and will immediately change the trajectory of the franchise. It will be fun to watch the Panthers’ offense this season, which is something I haven’t said in a few years.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Chandler Zavala, G, NC State

My favorite non-combine prospect this year, Zavala has a fascinating background that includes starting out at Fairmont State and missing most of the 2021 season — which made him go overlooked by scouts. But the tape is awesome and shows a player with NFL size, play strength and movement skills who can eventually push for a starting guard role.

13. New York Giants

Favorite pick: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota

This is one of those picks that I helped will into existence – I did two multi-round mocks in April and had Schmitz landing with the Giants at No. 57 both times (despite Twitter telling me there was “no way” he’d fall that far). While he’s not a top-tier athlete, Schmitz is a rock-solid player who can be a productive starter when his hands and feet stay on the same page. This is a Day 1 NFL starter.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma

This class was loaded with running back talent in the third- to fourth-round range, making it inevitable that a few — like Gray — might go later than they should. The Tennessee transfer is built low to the ground and runs with the balance and darting quickness to pick up chunk yardage. I love this fit because Gray has the skill set to be a productive change-of-pace and passing-down back behind Saquon Barkley.

14. Tennessee Titans

Favorite pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Levis is a complicated evaluation for a lot of different reasons. To land him outside the first round, though? That is well worth it because he has all the necessary skill set to start games in the NFL. His ceiling is a question mark, but he has all the physical tools necessary plus the intelligence and toughness that his coaches will appreciate.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland

Honestly, I wasn’t too fired up about any of the three players that the Titans added on Day 3. I’ll go with Duncan because he has talent and the Titans need offensive line help, making this an intriguing fit if everything falls into place. Several scouts had questions about Duncan’s consistency on and off the field, and it didn’t help that his worst games in 2022 all came versus his best opponents. But in the sixth round, the risk is worth the potential reward.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Favorite pick: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State

For an offensive line in flux, a versatile option like Mauch is a fantastic fit. He projects best inside at guard, but he has the skills to play center and was a three-year starter at left tackle. Regardless of where he plays, Mauch has outstanding movement skills and play personality. He will receive a first-class education from Ryan Jensen in Tampa.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Trey Palmer, WR, Nebraska

I really liked some of the Buccaneers’ defensive additions on Day 3, including SirVocea Dennis and Jose Ramirez. But Palmer gives the receiver depth chart a speedy deep threat and return man in the Ted Ginn Jr. mold. Palmer had one of the best “flying 20” times in this draft class and led the FBS in 2022 with three catches of 70-plus yards.

16. New England Patriots

Favorite pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Gonzalez was a top-five player on my draft board, and I’m betting on the elite package of length and speed that he brings to a premium position. He has some finesse to his game but tackles well and showed improved ball skills with each tape last season. Now, Gonzalez lands in a situation that should help him get the most out of his wide-ranging skill set.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Sidy Sow, G, Eastern Michigan

One of my favorite mid-round prospects this year, Sow is a strong, physical guard, and he isn’t a slug as a mover. The Canadian native offers immediate depth and could be a long-term option as Michael Onwenu enters the final season of his rookie deal.

17. Arizona Cardinals

Favorite pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The story of the Cardinals’ 2023 draft is the future draft capital gained, but they also landed the top offensive tackle available. Though Johnson needs continued seasoning with his technique and steps, he has outstanding body control and fluidity for a man his size — his 36-plus-inch arms don’t hurt. With their character and talent, Johnson and second-rounder BJ Ojulari were smart targets for a rebuilding team in the first year of a new regime.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jon Gaines II, G, UCLA

The Cardinals may have found two starting linemen in the draft: Johnson early, then Gaines in the middle rounds. One of the most athletic blockers in the class, Gaines’ 7.31 three-cone and 4.45 short shuttle led all offensive linemen at the combine, and those times are reflected on tape. Gaines offers the center-guard versatility to give Arizona options.

18. New Orleans Saints

Favorite pick: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

The Saints desperately needed to address their defensive line in the draft, and Bresee fell right into their laps. A former five-star, he played at a high level as a true freshman but then battled injuries and personal tragedy the last two years, which affected his consistency on the field. Bresee has the talent to line up at multiple spots on the line and provide disruption.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Nick Saldiveri, OT, Old Dominion

I love Jake Haener as a backup QB and getting A.T. Perry in the sixth round is robbery. But Saldiveri has NFL-starting traits with his body control to center himself against rushers. Coaches rave about his mental approach to the position, and it won’t be a surprise if he impresses should he be pressed into early action. Saldiveri was a right tackle in college, but he has position flex.

19. Cincinnati Bengals

Favorite pick: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan

Aside from punter Brad Robbins, it will be interesting to see which member of the Bengals’ 2023 draft class logs the first career start. Even with a crowded cornerback depth chart, I won’t be surprised if Turner earns his way onto the field as a rookie in sub situations. He has elite speed and compete skills with the inside-outside versatility to play multiple positions.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Chase Brown, RB, Illinois

One of the best value fits of the entire draft, Brown is an explosive one-cut runner with the vision and determination to get on the field quickly. His ability in the passing game will help fill the void left by Samaje Perine. We thought the Bengals might go running back earlier than this, but it’s hard to argue with the value here.

20. Los Angeles Chargers

Favorite pick: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State

I was fine with the Chargers first two picks — both were a little earlier than I would have liked, but they make logical sense in terms of fit. My favorite pick, however, was Henley, who will push to see the field from the get-go. A former quarterback, wide receiver and safety, he made the transition to linebacker and surpassed 100 tackles each of the last two seasons while putting positive plays on tape in coverage.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Derius Davis, WR, TCU

With his return skills, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Davis makes more of an immediate impact for the Chargers than his TCU teammate, Quentin Johnston, who was drafted in the first round. Davis has remarkable speed (4.36 40 and 1.46 10-yard split) and was responsible for five punt-return touchdowns in college, averaging 15.0 yards per return in his career. He also added a kick-return touchdown and seven career special-teams tackles for good measure.

21. Las Vegas Raiders

Favorite pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Something Nate Tice and I mentioned consistently when discussing this tight end class: Don’t overthink Mayer. No, he might not be an elite athlete or blocker, but he is a well-rounded, dependable player with outstanding hands and a ready-made skill set. He has the ability as a blocker to play inline and the receiving skills to consistently win over the middle of the field. Above all, Mayer will make a huge difference for the Raiders in the red zone.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Jakorian Bennett, CB, Maryland

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell also might surprise if injuries force him onto the field, but Bennett has a clearer path to playing time. Although his size is underwhelming, his cover speed and ability to disrupt the catch point are strong selling points. Bennett ran a 4.30 40-yard dash at the combine and accounted for more passes defended (31) than he had games played (28) in his Maryland career.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Favorite pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

No need to overthink this one. Flowers adds another dynamic option to the Ravens’ offense, which will force defenses to cover every inch of the field. With Todd Monken at play caller, QB Lamar Jackson locked in for the next five years and a reworked wide receiver depth chart, the narrative about the Ravens’ offense has taken an optimistic turn.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford

Aside from Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens have several question marks at cornerback and didn’t address the position within the first four rounds. Kelly was a nice addition later in the draft, however. Although he might not have elite speed, his foot quickness helps him mirror routes and stay attached, and his long arms give him a chance to make plays on the football.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars

Favorite pick: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn

Even with Travis Etienne entrenched as the starter and D’Ernest Johnson in the mix, Bigsby should get a chance to make his mark on the offense as a rookie. When watching his Auburn tape, it often felt like he needed to do everything because the blocking and supporting talent didn’t give him much help. But his power through contact and speed make for an intriguing combo.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Parker Washington, WR, Penn State

The Jaguars had 10 selections on Day 3 so plenty of intriguing options here, including Yasir Abdullah and Antonio Johnson. But Washington is the most interesting of the bunch. Due to a late-season injury, he missed the entire draft process, but might have been a top-100 pick had he been fully healthy. For Jaguars fans curious about Washington’s potential, throw on the Ohio State game from this past season and watch him cook.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Favorite pick: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

In the past, the Cowboys’ organizational philosophy has been to wait on drafting nose/one-technique defensive tackles because the value wasn’t there in the first round. But the combination of a glaring need and Smith’s talent forced the front office to rethink things — and I applaud them for that. A remarkable athlete for 330 pounds, Smith has the power to reset the line of scrimmage and shut down the run. His presence will free up Micah Parsons and other defenders to make more plays.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Asim Richards, OT, North Carolina

If the category was “most heartwarming story,” then Deuce Vaughn would have been the easy pick. But I think Richards will prove himself to be a valuable part of the offensive line as early as his rookie year. A former high school basketball player, Richards moves well and plays with outstanding play strength to lock down defenders once engaged. He has the talent to establish himself as a swing tackle/guard this season.

25. Washington Commanders

Favorite pick: Quan Martin, S, Illinois

I like Emmanuel Forbes quite a bit and think he will be a great fit in Washington (although I was surprised to see him drafted ahead of Christian Gonzalez). However, Martin was one of my favorite players in the draft. A safety and nickel, he offers versatility across the secondary with outstanding athletic traits and budding awareness. He just needs to be a better finisher.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: KJ Henry, Edge, Clemson

Henry was the third Clemson defensive lineman drafted, but he led the group (by a healthy margin) in quarterback pressures last season. He doesn’t really have the size or athletic traits to be a true every-down player, but his burst off the ball and red-hot motor help him chase down the football. Henry will be a valuable sub-package rusher for the Commanders.

26. Denver Broncos

Favorite pick: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

My top-ranked linebacker, Sanders has intriguing versatility as a “do-everything” front-seven defender. Long, lean and fast, he has instincts and range, although he must become a better take-on player and clean up the “almost” plays on his tape. Nevertheless, landing Sanders at pick No. 67 is an absolute steal.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Alex Forsyth, C, Oregon

Graded as the top senior center in the class by some scouts, Forsyth had bad injury luck throughout the draft process, which allowed Denver to nab him in the final round. Though not overpowering, he is technically sound and plays with the grit required at the pro level. The long-term outlook at center for the Broncos is far from settled, so Forsyth has a legitimate chance to move his way up the depth chart.

27. Kansas City Chiefs

Favorite pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State

Kansas City needed to add a quality pass rusher with one of its early picks, and that is exactly what it did with Anudike-Uzomah. Although he is more “good” than “great” in regards to his size, speed and length, he mixes up his rush attack and keeps his pursuit alive to chase down the football. He needs to get better in the run game before he establishes himself as a full-time starter.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Nic Jones, CB, Ball State

The Chiefs have an impressive recent track record of hitting on Day 3 cornerbacks, like L’Jarius Sneed, Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson. And Jones could be next in line. Still a young player, the Detroit native isn’t an elite size/speed athlete, but he uses his long arms to be disruptive at the catch point and stays controlled in his coverage movements. He has yet to play his best football.

28. Los Angeles Rams

Favorite pick: Steve Avila, G/C, TCU

Easy pick here. Avila was arguably the top interior offensive lineman in the draft, and he gives the Rams flexibility up front with his experience across the line. He is a wide-bodied 330-pounder with outstanding play strength and smarts. Despite not having a first-round pick, the Rams did well to find a plug-and-play starter.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Zach Evans, RB, Ole Miss

One of three TCU prospects in the Rams’ class, Evans (who transferred to Ole Miss for 2022) is an extremely talented player. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry in college, and his impressive burst and balance allowed him to put explosive plays all over his tape. He fell in the draft due to character concerns and has a boom-or-bust future. In the seventh round, though, he was worth the risk.

29. New York Jets

Favorite pick: Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin

A pairing I projected in my seven-round mock, Tippmann is a great fit in the Jets’ scheme as an interior blocker with center-guard versatility (despite playing exclusively at center in Madison). His mobility and hand strength are outstanding, and even though he spends too much time on the ground, he shines on pulls, cutoffs and any type of move-block. As for the Jets’ first selection, Will McDonald IV: Although I have questions about him living up to being the No. 15 overall pick, I do think he’ll have some impressive flashes as a rookie as a sub-package rusher.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Carter Warren, OT, Pitt

The Jets weren’t able to land an offensive tackle in the first three-rounds, but they found an intriguing option in Round 4. A New Jersey native, Warren might not be a top-tier athlete, but he is long and strong with the talent to become a valuable swing tackle. He would have been a top-100 pick had he not missed most of the last six months with a knee injury.

30. Miami Dolphins

Favorite pick: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Another pick I helped mock into existence, I just wanted to see what Achane’s speed would look like in the Dolphins’ offense. In a few months, we can stop imagining. With his track speed, Achane stresses defenses in different ways and has the vision and foot quickness to string moves together. Mike McDaniel will understand how to weaponize his new running back.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Elijah Higgins, WR, Stanford

Whether he is listed as a tight end or wide receiver on the roster, Higgins can work the middle of the field or outside. I am most intrigued with him in the quick game as a screen target, due to his start-stop quickness underneath to be a catch-and-run threat. He doesn’t always play up to his size, but Higgins offers the position flex to be a matchup problem.

31. Minnesota Vikings

Favorite pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

One of the best wide receivers in this class, Addison has the twitched-up athleticism and dynamic route-running skills to be a true three-level threat. He is undersized and will need to prove he has the physicality to match NFL defensive backs, but his ball skills improved each season in college. Whether he lines up inside or outside, Addison’s presence will only help make Justin Jefferson more dangerous.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: DeWayne McBride, RB, UAB

It is never a good sign when a running back has more career fumbles than catches in college, but McBride is still a really unique talent with some of the most fun tape in this running back class. His contact balance is special, and he could have easily went in the top-100 picks. However, some of the question marks created doubt with teams and dropped him to the final round. But the talent isn’t a concern.

32. San Francisco 49ers

Favorite pick: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State

With no picks until the late third round, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the 49ers finished down this list. But they did land arguably the best all-around safety in the draft. Some soured on Brown due to his average speed, but he has outstanding football character and is the only player in this draft class with double-digit interceptions over the last two seasons.

Day 3 pick who could surprise: Brayden Willis, TE, Oklahoma

Given Willis’ versatility and competitive approach, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he turns out to be the 49ers’ best tight-end option from this draft haul. Described as a “program guy” by the Oklahoma coaches, Willis’ blocking skills give him position flexibility across the formation, and his value expands to special teams. Willis is the type of competitor you don’t bet against.