We begin our breakdowns of each NFL team schedule today with the NFC North.
But first, Peter King gets some inside scoop from the schedule makers:
The 13th iteration of the 2021 NFL schedule was perfectly playable. It had been put through all the checks of the 70-game Key Games Chart and rest-disparity metric and the strategic placement of the asterisked Green Bay games and the early Brady-Belichick mega-game. But when the league’s six-person schedule team met by Zoom on Friday, May 7—every meeting of the team over the 17-week construction of the new slate was over Zoom—Senior VP of broadcasting Howard Katz told the group: “We got the weekend. Let’s take one more shot.”
The deadline: Monday morning, May 10. That’s when commissioner Roger Goodell would have to sign off on the final schedule for the Wednesday day-long leaking and prime-time release of the 272 games.
On Friday evening, league director of broadcasting Charlotte Carey, working from her New Jersey home, asked the league’s array of computers to fix several minor problems. Minnesota was due to open the season at San Francisco and at Arizona; two long trips, and Katz wanted one of them shorter, for fairness. The league hates to give teams three-game road trips, and this slate had only three of them. But Cincinnati’s three-gamer on the Friday schedule had the Bengals at Las Vegas, at Baltimore, at the Jets in succession, and Katz wanted a shorter trip than Vegas to start. Tennessee had trips to Seattle and the Rams in Weeks 8 and 9. Could one of those long trips be moved?
And one more: Katz wanted to avoid Denver making two East Coast trips to start the season—at the Giants, at Jacksonville.
The object, of course, was to fix those four little problems without creating bigger ones. And by the time the computer spat out new possibilities Saturday morning, Carey found several possibilities that fixed some or all of the Minnesota, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Denver issues. She emailed them to the team—Katz in New Jersey; Mike North in Westchester County north of New York; and Onnie Bose, Blake Jones and rookie Nick Cooney in New York City. By 8:30 Saturday evening, they began a 2-hour, 35-minute Zoom to pick apart the new slates.
There was one that kept Tampa Bay-New England in Week 4 and Green Bay-Kansas City in Week 9, kept the Key Games Chart intact, fixed the Vikings/Bengals/Titans issues, and didn’t exacerbate rest disparity. It wasn’t perfect, as you’ll see, but it was better than Friday’s.
On Saturday at 11:05 p.m., 36 hours before they’d go to Goodell for the okay, Katz and team settled on the schedule spit out by one of the NFL computers: the 102,844th schedule they considered over 124 days of planning.
In a Zoom call Thursday (fitting), Katz and VP of NFL Broadcast Planning Mike North explained how they arrived at Schedule 102,844.
“We throw away a lot of perfectly good schedules,” Katz said. “That’s just indicative of how far we’ve come in this process. A dozen years ago, we wouldn’t have thought twice about it—we would’ve played those schedules. That makes us feel good, that we’re doing a much better job not just for our television partners but across all 32 teams for trying to come up with what are fair schedules. No schedule’s perfect. And everybody’s got some gripe. But they were minimal this year.”
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“This year,” Katz said, “was a little tricky because we weren’t sure when we began the process whether we were going to play a 16-game, 17-week schedule or 17-game, 18-week schedule. We decided we would start by building the 17-game schedule, because it was new and . . . we wanted to see what the pitfalls were. Right around the Super Bowl, we meet with all our broadcast partners. CBS and FOX basically tell us the games that they most want to keep on their [Sunday afternoon] schedule and NBC and ESPN give us the games that they would like to see on their [Sunday night and Monday night] schedule. Generally, those lists are pretty similar. Our challenge is really how we split the baby and how we allocate all of the top games . . . And then we just start running simulations and running over and over and over again.
“The definition of insanity’s doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result? That’s exactly what we do. Every day, Mike creates new seeds based on what we’ve seen and want to see. Then he puts those into the computer. The computer runs, spits things out. What the computer’s trying to do is solve our puzzle with the framework that we give it.”
What helped: Once the 17th game per team was official in late March, it added 16 games to be spread wherever the NFL wanted to put them. Instead of, say, FOX owning the games because they were all games with NFC teams as visitors, the NFL told broadcast partners that every game was a free agent. Thus, for example, Dallas at New England went to CBS, Green Bay at Kansas City stayed with FOX, Seattle at Pittsburgh went to NBC. That addition of some good extra matchups beefed up the Key Games Chart, the collection of all Sunday night, Monday night and Thursday games, special games (Thanksgiving Day, Christmas doubleheader) and CBS and FOX doubleheader games.
The major mileposts on the road to Schedule 102,844:
• The Green Bay dilemma. Once Adam Schefter reported April 29 on Aaron Rodgers’ desire to play elsewhere, the schedule team had 13 days to determine whether to wean the league off any of Green Bay’s five prime-time games, and several more as key doubleheaders games for FOX and CBS. “That got us a little nervous,” Katz told me. Katz asked around for inside info, but the story was so cloudy. No one knows Rodgers’ fate. I doubt even he does. When I saw the schedule, among everything, this jumped out at me:
Week 1: Green Bay at New Orleans, Sunday, FOX doubleheader.
Week 2: Detroit at Green Bay, Monday, ESPN.
Week 3: Green Bay at San Francisco, Sunday night, NBC.
Week 4: Pittsburgh at Green Bay, Sunday, CBS doubleheader.
Week 14: Chicago at Green Bay, Sunday night, NBC.
Week 17: Minnesota at Green Bay, Sunday night, NBC.
I said to Katz and North this looked pretty well-designed. Each network gets a piece of the Packers in the first four weeks, when they’re a fascinating story, with or without Rodgers. And those last two games—NBC has flex scheduling from Weeks 11 to 17. If the Packers are 4-8 with struggling Jordan Love at QB when that Bears game come up, the league could switch to Buffalo at Tampa, or Baltimore at Cleveland. Ditto Week 17, when Vegas-Indy or Miami-Tennessee could be plugged in.
After the Rodgers report, Katz said, “The Green Bay Packers are still the Green Bay Packers, with or without Aaron Rodgers. They’re a great team and a great brand. We started to think about some of the permutations of the schedule. Ultimately, when he didn’t get traded, we couldn’t solve for something we didn’t know. It was pretty deliberate the way we maxed out the Packers early in the season. You’re right that each of the networks has their bite at the Packers in the first month. That was deliberate.”
• “Aaron Rodgers” at Patrick Mahomes. The second-best matchup of the regular season might be the 72nd-best matchup if it’s Jordan Love or Blake Bortles at Mahomes. But the NFL is gambling, and FOX is praying, that the Pack and Rodgers do not get divorced. For a while in the scheduling process, this game was nestled as a FOX doubleheader game on Christmas weekend (Sunday, Dec. 26). But Katz thought it was too late. What if either team had clinched a playoff spot and might not play its full team for the full game? What if either team was out of contention by then? So it got moved to Week 9, the FOX doubleheader game on Nov. 7.
• The TomBill Bowl. NBC got the Week 4 mega-game—Bucs at Patriots in Tom Brady’s return to New England on Sunday night, Oct. 3. This was the game every network wanted badly, and NBC won it. “The only one we’ve ever done that I could compare it to was our first game—the Manning Bowl,” said Fred Gaudelli, the executive producer of Sunday Night Football on NBC since its inception in 2006. In Week 1 2006, NBC debuted its Sunday night package with Peyton’s Colts versus Eli’s Giants. “Such tremendous interest in that game. And this year, Tampa Bay-New England will be a story that transcends sports for the week before the game. It’s the game of the year, certainly. It might be the game of many, many years.”
I was interested in how early it’s falling. I thought the league might want the buildup to last for weeks into the season. But I get why they did it. Brady turns 44 in August, and he’s coming off off-season knee surgery, and at some point, isn’t it logical to think that a man of a certain football age won’t last a full 17 games? Plus, it’s logical to wonder if the Patriots’ 2020 struggles continue into this year. Playing it early is a hedge against the Patriots’ record, and a hedge against an old quarterback’s health.
“Each network lobbied for that game,” Katz said. “They lobbied hard. We played with that game at various stages of our schedule in different places. That game was not always on the Sunday night schedule . . . I would say by the latter part of April, we were pretty locked on the general format for the schedule and that game on Sunday night and the Green Bay-Kansas City game being as a FOX doubleheader.”
North said putting the game in Week 4 “is less about whether these teams are fighting for division races, playoff implications, less likely to have an injury, less likely to have weather. The story can be about Brady’s return. It would be different if Tom’s standing on the 50-yard line watching a tribute video in November in six inches of snow. Or, the later in the season we go, the more likely somebody’s injured. Getting in early, having that story told, made some sense.”
• Fixing some road issues. In 2017, the schedule had seven teams with three-game road trips; this year, there are three. In 2017, five teams followed road Monday games with road Sunday games; this year, there’s one (Miami, Weeks 16, 17: at New Orleans on Monday, at Tennessee on Sunday). Back to what got fixed in travel disparity in Schedule 102,844.
Instead of Minnesota traveling to San Francisco and Arizona in Weeks 1 and 2, the league shifted Week 1 to Cincinnati, saving the Vikings three hours of travel time round-trip in the first week.
Instead of the Las Vegas-Baltimore-New Jersey road trip for Cincinnati, the league subbed Detroit for Vegas, and moved Cincinnati’s trip to Nevada to Week 11. That saves the Bengals five hours, total, of travel time in the first weekend of the three.
Instead of the Titans playing at Seattle and at the Rams in Weeks 8 and 9, now it’s Indianapolis and Los Angeles trips back to back. Nashville to Indy: 55 minutes of flight time. Nashville to L.A.: four hours, 15 minutes.
But fixing the Denver issue of two long trips to start the season couldn’t be fixed without creating bigger problems. Who knows? If Carey gave the computers more time, it’s possible a shorter trip could have been subbed for one of these. But this crew, collectively, has more than 70 years of schedule-making experience, and they doubted they’d be able to find a Denver solution. In the end, the league could fix most things, but not everything.
• A weird bye story. Four teams play in London this year—Jets-Atlanta Oct. 10, Miami-Jacksonville Oct. 17, both at 9:30 a.m. ET. The Jets, Falcons and Jags have byes following the games. The Dolphins don’t. They return from London to play a 1 p.m. home game with Atlanta the next week.
Turns out Miami asked to not have its bye the week following the London game. The Dolphins wanted a later bye … and though the Week 14 bye means they play their first 13 games without a break, I still think it’s better to have the bye much later than Week 7. Plus there’s this: It’s likely, barring travel snafus, that the Dolphins will get back from the London game by about 1:15 a.m. Monday. Miami plays at Las Vegas in Week 3, a 4:05 p.m. ET game. Barring travel snafus there too, the Dolphins should return to south Florida about 1:45 a.m. So Miami’s reasoning, I’m sure, was, Let’s not blow our bye early, especially when the London game is just like coming home from a West Coast game.
“Philly was in the mix to go with Atlanta to London,” North said. “They were more than willing to take a home game after London. Most of these teams now have been to London. Everybody’s really kind of figured it out.”
No byes till Week 6. That’s the first time since the league started giving byes that the weeks off have started that late. Teams just hate the early byes. “Don’t forget,” North said. “Tampa had a Week 13 bye last year. Everybody got healthy. They didn’t lose again.”
Katz and Company may love the schedule, but John Breech of CBSSports.com says it sure doesn’t mean there aren’t some oddities:
There are always some crazy quirks when it comes to the NFL schedule and this year is no different. Although the league office does its best to make all 32 teams happy, the fact of the matter is that making everyone happy just isn’t possible when you’re putting together a schedule that consists of 272 games.
Some teams will be happy about the quirks on their schedule while plenty of other teams won’t be.
So who got the craziest quirks? Let’s find out.
The Cleveland Browns arguably have the most interesting quirk on the schedule and that’s because they’ll be doing something that no NFL team has done in 30 years: They get to play back-to-back games against the same opponent.
After playing in Baltimore in Week 12, the Browns will have a Week 13 bye before playing host to the Ravens in Week 14. This marks the first time since 1991 that an NFL team has played back-to-back regular-season games against the same opponent. Thirty years ago, it was the Chargers and Seahawks who played each other back-to-back.
The Jets and Dolphins were actually scheduled to play each other in back-to-back games last year, but that didn’t happen because their schedules got re-arranged due to the pandemic. For Cleveland, the two-game stretch against the Ravens will mark first time since 1957 that the Browns have played back-to-back games against a single team.
On the other hand, the Ravens won’t be playing back-to-back games against the Browns. Baltimore got dealt a tougher hand and will have to play the Steelers in Week 13 while the Browns are on their bye.
Speaking of the Ravens, we’re going to start with them as we take a look at nine other quirks on the schedule.
Home sweet home. The Ravens will be playing four straight home games in 2021, marking just the seventh time that’s happened over the past 30 years (2020 Steelers, 2016 Raiders, Dolphins, Packers, 2015 Titans, 2008 Texans). Of the previous six teams to play four straight home games, five of them went either 4-0 or 3-1 during their home-stand. The 2015 Titans are the only team that didn’t finish above .500 (0-4).
Bear down. The Bears don’t have to play consecutive road games at any point this season. This marks just the fourth time since 2010 that’s happened. The good news for the Bears is that in the three previous instances (2019 Ravens, 2013 Packers, 2012 Falcons), all three teams ended up winning their division.
Washington’s wild finish. The Football Team will close the season with five straight games against division opponents. To put that in perspective, only three other teams will even play four division opponents over the final five weeks (Cowboys, Eagles, Panthers). This marks the first time since 1995 that a team will have to close the season with five straight division games (The 1995 Buccaneers went 1-4 over their five-game divisional stretch and fell out of the playoff race).
Rough road to start the season. There are only four teams in the NFL who will have to play their first TWO games on the road and those teams are: The Cowboys, Broncos, Vikings and 49ers.
Rough road to end the season. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are only two teams that close the season with two straight road games and those two teams are the Chiefs and Panthers.
Bye, bye, bye. The Patriots are facing three teams that will be coming off a bye this year, which is the most in the NFL. That’s not ideal since teams will be getting extra rest and preparation time prior to playing New England. On the flip side, the Panthers will be facing zero teams coming off a bye.
Monday shut out. The Broncos weren’t given a Monday night game this year, marking the first time since 1991 that that’s happened. Heading into 2021, the Broncos had the longest active streak of consecutive seasons with a Monday game.
Fly Eagles Fly. Not only do the Eagles have the easiest strength of schedule this year, but they don’t have to play a single road game this season against a team that had a winning record last year. As a matter of fact, of the Eagles’ 17 opponents in 2021, only three of them had a winning record in 2020. Also, the Eagles won’t be flying much as they won’t have to get on a plane for the rest of the season following their Nov. 14 game (Week 10) at Denver.
Thirsty Thursday. It’s starting to seem like the NFL is trying to permanently move every Cowboys game to a Thursday. Through the first 13 weeks of the season, the Cowboys will be playing three Thursday games. The three Thursday games is tied for the most any team has played in a season since 2000 (2019 Bears and 2000 Lions also played three Thursday games).
Even though we’ve reach our 10 quirk limit, we’ve decided to throw in a BONUS QUIRK and it has to do with bye weeks.
Week 14 bye. The Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, Patriots all landed a Week 14 bye, which is notable for two reasons. First, it’s the latest scheduled bye any team has been given since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002. Second, the Buccaneers had the latest bye week last year and they went on to win the Super Bowl, which could be good news for the one of the four teams here. Also, if the crazy bye week trend below holds, that means that either the Colts, Dolphins, Eagles or Patriots will be winning Super Bowl LVI.
There are also several other scheduling notes that aren’t really quirks, but are probably worth mentioning. Starting in Week 2, the Cowboys play eight straight games against teams that finished under .500 last year. The Steelers and Panthers both close the season with four straight games against teams that made the playoffs last year. For Pittsburgh, that means games against the Titans, Chiefs, Browns and Ravens. For Carolina, that means games against the Bills, Saints and Buccaneers twice.
Also, when the Chargers face Washington in Week 1, it will mark just the fourth-time ever that the reigning offensive rookie of the year (Justin Herbert) has played against the reigning defensive rookie of the year (Chase Young) in a season-opener.
Breech doesn’t mention it, but we will throw in the fact that the Buccaneers and Panthers don’t meet for the first time until after a holiday – not after Thanksgiving, but after Christmas with the first meeting in Week 16 on December 26. We would presume that is the first time that has happened.
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