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ATLANTA
WR JULIO JONES knows he is gone – and wants to play for a winner. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones does not expect to be a Falcon much longer.
In a brief conversation with Shannon Sharpe on FS1, Jones said he does not anticipate remaining in Atlanta.
“I’m out of there,” Jones said.
Asked where he would like to go, Jones indicated that his top priority is going to a contender.
“I want to win,” Jones said.
Although a picture of Jones wearing a Cowboys shirt recently surfaced on social media, Jones said he’s not going to the Cowboys.
“I ain’t going to Dallas, I never thought of going to Dallas,” Jones said.
The Falcons are known to be shopping Jones, but his contract is going to be an issue. Jones is guaranteed a $15.3 million salary this season, and given how weak the wide receiver market was in free agency, it’s clear that there are not a lot of teams looking to spend a lot of money on a veteran wide receiver. Trade negotiations may prove to be less about what the Falcons can get for Jones, and more about how much of Jones’ salary the Falcons are willing to pay to get a trade done.
But one way or another, Jones thinks he’s gone.
So where? Kansas City? Seattle (Metcalf, Lockett and Jones!!!)? San Francisco? WFT? Miami? New Orleans? Tennessee? Chargers?
Let’s see who Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com came up with:
Discarding Jones after June 1 allows the Falcons to achieve the salary-cap relief they so desperately covet, but that hardly ensures a healthy return. A younger and healthier De’Andre Hopkins moved for basically a second-round pick a year ago, with interested teams knowing he would demand a new contract, and while Jones is a fixed cost at this time, $15M is hardly chump change.
In fact, at $15.3M, Jones will take home the 10th most money of any receiver in the NFL, coming off a year in which he played just nine games and continued a trend in recent years in which he has been often on the injury report and when he does play, frequently is not at 100 percent. Sure, 85% of Jones is still a star, but there are ample concerns about how his body is trending, and entering his age 32 season, you can understand why teams aren’t falling all over themselves to throw assets at the Falcons.
Would owner Arthur Blank be willing to eat a chunk of the contract – maybe even a significant chunk – to facilitate maximum trade compensation? Perhaps, but he needs maximum cap-space relief from this transaction as well, and it will be difficult to move anyone else from this Frankenstein roster to achieve such relief elsewhere, which is why this stalwart is available in the first place. This just smells like something Bill Belichick would do. This has an obvious Patriots feel to it, with a player of this magnitude out there for a likely modest return.
For what it’s worth, Vegas seems to keep coming up with the same half-dozen teams or so as the favorites to land Jones, though several of those suggestions don’t actually pass my smell test. Here’s a look at those teams, and why I believe Jones will – or will not – actually land there next month:
Ravens
They have never paid a WR more than $8M a year, were unwilling to go past $9.5M for JuJu this year and have an owner near the bottom of the NFL in overall cash spending dating back to 2017. They drafted two receivers within the first four rounds of the draft for the second time in three years and just paid Sammy Watkins $6M to come on board. Jones won’t help on special teams and while they say the offense is expanding, there is less volume in this passing game than any in the NFL. Oh, and they have no proven pass rusher and Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are among those in line for massive extensions. Even if Blank ate $5M I’m not sure this is where Jones lands.
49ers
There is an obvious Kyle Shanahan connection here and the 49ers are not averse to splash moves. Yes, they have invested draft capital in the receiver position … but they have also seen just how brutal and barren things can be when injuries strike that position. Shanahan covets having an experienced Alpha in his receiver’s room, and went out and traded for Emanuel Sanders in that role during their Super Bowl run. Jones played for this coach before and knows the offense inside out and would likely play around with his contract for cap purposes if need be. This connection makes sense to me and this kind of proven, quintessential outside receiver to go along with the smaller guys and different body types already assembled would make for a potent unit.
Patriots
Belichick and Shanahan tend to look at things similarly, and they did hook up on a blockbuster of their own a few years back when Jimmy G left New England. This coach has a thing for 30-something superstars going back the length of his career, and loves to buy low on future Hall of Famers. Yeah, they added some pass catchers already in free agency, but Kendrick Bourne was really a one-year proposition at under $5M, and Nelson Agholor was a one-year wonder. No one on that roster has this kind of pedigree, and this offense needs to make a huge leap from where it was a year ago. Robert Kraft doesn’t mind throwing his cash around, and this is another case where they could tweak the contract for cap purposes to allow maximum flexibility. Could be Randy Moss 2.0 for them. I like this fit a lot.
Chargers
Sure, adding as many weapons as possible for Justin Herbert makes sense, but these guys could have kept Hunter Henry for another year at basically the same as what the market bore, and let that tight end walk. They are already paying big money at this position group and it would be quite a change of direction for this ownership group. The Chargers already have $38M in cap space committed to receivers in 2021, fourth-most in all of football according to Spotrac.com, and this feels like a luxury item for them. I can’t recall them making many moves for this kind of salary at this point in a season, and am surprised to keep seeing them pop up among the betting favorites. Maybe I’m missing something.
Titans
There is an obvious connection between these organizations now, with former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith now head coach of the Falcons. He knows that Tennessee roster inside out and there may be some young, cheap players he covets who aren’t exactly frontline guys for the Falcons right now. And the Titans lost a top tight end and their No. 2 receiver in an offseason that saw quite a few defections at multiple positions, frankly. Those players left by and large because the Titans didn’t want to pay what the market would, so grabbing a $15M receiver at this stage of the game would surprise me. I’m not sure that is where they are as an organization right now, knowing AJ Brown is going to be making top five WR money soon enough. It’s worth noting that Spotrac has them last in the NFL in receiver payroll for 2021, but seems to me that is kind of by design knowing Brown is going to be ready for a mega deal come January. They have close to $200M already committed to payroll and that might be what they are comfortable with.
Eagles
If you are looking for a dark horse outside of these teams, I have seen the Eagles around 10-1, and you can never count them out of this kind of a move. That division has no monster team, and while they are kinda retooling under a rookie head coach, they are always eager to make trades to add talent. Yes, they just drafted an Alabama WR in the first round, but the owner has traditionally been a big spender and they have a massive draft haul already assembled over the next few years, making it easier to part with in a situation like this.
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Sun Sep 12 Philadelphia 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Sep 19 at Tampa Bay 4:05pm ET FOX
Sun Sep 26 at New York Giants 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Oct 3 Washington 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Oct 10 New York Jets (London 9:30am ET NFLN
Sun Oct 17 BYE
Sun Oct 24 at Miami 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Oct 31 Carolina 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Nov 7 at New Orleans 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Nov 14 at Dallas 1:00pm ET FOX
Thur Nov 18 New England 8:20pm ET FOX
Sun Nov 28 at Jacksonville 1:00pm ET CBS
Sun Dec 5 Tampa Bay 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Dec 12 at Carolina 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Dec 19 at San Francisco 4:05pm ET CBS
Sun Dec 26 Detroit 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Jan 2 at Buffalo 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Jan 9 New Orleans 1:00pm ET FOX
SCHEDULE NOTES
The Falcons didn’t get much love from the schedule makers in terms of exposure – just a mid-season Thursday home game with the Patriots in primetime…The Falcons gave up a home game to play the Jets in London…Is 2021 Atlanta the first team ever scheduled to play three more games away from home than in their own stadium?…Just seven of 17 in the ATL…Despite the preponderance of road dates, no three game road trips…The Falcons are done with most of their division games much faster than most…Only 1 of the last 4, the mandatory Week 18 game, is versus a division foe…Other than the Jets and Patriots games, only the Week 2 game at Tampa Bay is not at 1 or in the West…The Falcons are in the early FOX window in 12 of 17 weeks.
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SEATTLE
QB RUSSELL WILSON is acknowledging he will be a Seahawk in 2021. Albert Breer ofNFL.com:
I’m told Wilson fully understands what’s ahead, and that’s another season as a Seahawk, and he’s preparing himself to play for Seattle now, as Carroll said. Things are indeed in a better place now and for Wilson, as one source put it, “It’s basically I’m here now, and I’m going to make it the best it can be.”
That, by the way, doesn’t mean he’ll be in the building Monday morning for the start of OTAs—the Seahawks’ coaches and players haven’t worked out an agreement like other teams have, so Seattle players have been staying away (and Wilson’s stood in solidarity with them). So I wouldn’t expect to see pictures of Wilson entering the building for Phase III quite yet, and that, as I see it, should be seen as more of a team thing than any kind of individual strike.
As we reported back in March, Wilson really wanted to view 2021 as the start of the second half of his career, which meant assessing everything he does and looking for a better way, from strength-and-conditioning to throwing mechanics to how he watches tape, and the maintenance of his body through nutrition and his mind through sports psychology. That exercise, likewise, led to an assessment of where he was with the team.
There were three resulting things he wanted coming out of that in January.
1) A new offensive philosophy that would maximize him as a player.
2) A real, high-end, ready-to-play addition to the offensive line.
3) Communication on the direction of the team from Carroll and Schneider.
The first box was quickly checked. Wilson was on board with the hire of Rams assistant Shane Waldron as his new OC, with Waldron bringing in a version of the McVay-Shanahan offense. The second was soon thereafter, with Seattle dealing a fifth-round pick to the Raiders for the highly-regarded Gabe Jackson, a guard with 99 career starts who was simply available because of Vegas’s cap situation (the Seahawks, for what it’s worth, also gave Wilson another weapon, in speedy receiver D’Wayne Eskridge, with their first draft pick).
As for the third box? That one’s a little more of a moving target. For one thing, while the brass would listen to Wilson, Seattle wasn’t going to tiptoe around its star. Schneider’s appearing at Josh Allen’s pro day in 2018, you’ll remember, ruffled feathers with Wilson’s camp—and if the Seahawks were worried about that stuff this time around, they wouldn’t have had Schneider go to Fargo to see Trey Lance throw in March.
And I think if you look at that objectively, and hear what Carroll told Eisen on the subject of Wilson’s having a voice in the organization’s decision-making, the whole thing adds up.
“I’ve always been talking to players,” Carroll said. “There’s been guys over the years that I’ve had with me in my office, or I’ve called them on the phone, now we do our texting, they’ve got information, they’ve got special knowledge, I’ve never hesitated to do that. Russ having been here for 10 years now, he’s been around us a long time, and he’s got good perspective, as does Bobby Wagner. We’re fortunate to have Duane Brown.
“They have opinions that, I don’t have to act on the information, but I want to access the information. I’m O.K. with that. I’ve always been talking to guys. So how much does he have now? He doesn’t have more than he’s ever had. I’ve respected the heck out of Russ for all of the reasons he’s proven he’s worthy. And so when I get a chance to get something from him that can help me out, I’m going to him. I don’t hesitate to.
“And I’ll do that with any of our guys. Doug Baldwin was a guy, Richard Sherman was a guy, I would talk to those guys about scheme, personnel, situations, social issues, I mean, you name it. That’s the kind of program we run around here. I don’t think it should be overplayed, and I don’t think it should be misstated either. Russ has a lot of good information, so I go to him when I think it’s appropriate.”
In other words, the Seahawks will communicate with Wilson, they’ll take his ideas into account, they respect his perspective … but there’s a line there.
This all sets up a really interesting season in the Pacific Northwest. I’ve said before I think Wilson’s probably on his last contract with the Seahawks. And with two years left after this one on that deal, it certainly seems as if where this season goes could well influence whether we’re back here again next January or February, asking if Wilson’s days in Seattle are numbered.
But, yeah, the good news for now, as Carroll said, is that Wilson is in for 2021—and that much should give everyone in Seattle a good shot to repeat as champs in what’s shaping up as the NFL’s most difficult division, and maybe take things even further than that.
– – –
Sun Sep 12 at Indianapolis 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Sep 19 Tennessee 4:25pm ET CBS
Sun Sep 26 at Minnesota 4:25pm ET FOX
Sun Oct 3 at San Francisco 4:05pm ET FOX
Thur Oct 7 Los Angeles Rams 8:20pm ET FOX
Sun Oct 17 at Pittsburgh 8:20pm ET NBC
Mon Oct 25 New Orleans 8:15pm ET ESPN
Sun Oct 31 Jacksonville 4:05pm ET CBS
Sun Nov 7 BYE
Sun Nov 14 at Green Bay 4:25pm ET CBS
Sun Nov 21 Arizona 4:25pm ET FOX
Mon Nov 29 at Washington 8:15pm ET ESPN
Sun Dec 5 San Francisco 8:20pm ET NBC
Sun Dec 12 at Houston 1:00pm ET FOX
Sun Dec 19 at Los Angeles Rams 4:25pm ET FOX
Sun Dec 26 Chicago 4:05pm ET FOX
Sun Jan 2 Detroit 4:25pm ET FOX
Sun Jan 9 at Arizona 4:25pm ET FOX
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PETER KING’s POWER RANKINGS
After the offseason, Peter King gives us his 1 (Kansas City) to 32 (Houston). Some of his team comments have been edited:
I really tried this year. I tried to find an NFL phoenix rising from nowhere, a King Picks Detroit to Shock the NFC, because there’s one every year, and we all want to be trendspotters. I just couldn’t do it.
I think Kansas City and Tampa Bay are the best teams in football heading into the pre-camp period after all the major team changes have been made. I can’t fake it. The odds say they won’t end up back in the Super Bowl; a Super Bowl rematch has happened only once (Dallas-Buffalo, 1994) in 55 years of them. They are, however, the two best teams in football on May 24, and almost certainly will be when the season kicks off Sept. 9. As for player movement, Julio Jones could still be dealt (New England? Vegas?), and Richard Sherman and Melvin Ingram could help contenders, but the major deeds have been done, and the majordomos are still at the head of the class.
Is it a shock to see Cleveland number four on my rankings of the teams? Or the Chargers 10? Or the Vikings 24th? Surprise, yes. Shock, no. Anyway, you decide, after you digest my 1-to-32 offseason rankings that truly, absolutely mean nothing but will be fodder for a day or three of outraged tweets.
1. Kansas City (14-2, lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay)
This is such a well-coached, well-run team. I remember doing this list last year and trying to force myself to find any reason to pick another team number one after the Super Bowl win, and I couldn’t. Same after the Super Bowl loss now. KC lost to Tampa because the Bucs got on one of those can’t-stop-‘em rolls, but also because Andy Reid’s offensive line was tattered due to injury and opt-outs; Patrick Mahomes got sacked or pressured 29 times that day. So GM Brett Veach maneuvered the cap and signed/drafted/traded for a new offensive line (with the exception of returning tackle Mike Remmers). In Week 1, Orlando Brown/Joe Thuney/Austin Blythe/Kyle Long/Remmers should be a top 10 NFL offensive line—a vast improvement from number 32 at season’s end. Veach helped in another way: making Mahomes’ contract palatable. His cap number this year is only $7.4 million and I would expect the Chiefs to convert compensation in 2022 and maybe 2023 into a signing bonus so it can be prorated and keep cap numbers in those years low as well. By the time the huge Mahomes chunks start coming two or three years from now, Veach is gambling that the cap will be back to its pre-pandemic annual increases. And Kansas City (31-7 over the last two years) should keep rolling.
2. Tampa Bay (11-5, won Super Bowl over Kansas City)
Last year in these rankings, the Bucs were coming off 7-9 but had Tom Brady in the fold, and readers howled when I rated the Bucs fifth. Turns out that was too low. And you may think two is too low this year. Could be. No Super Bowl winner has ever been back in such full force; as I wrote this spring, you could argue (and I would) that the 35 most significant pieces to the Bucs’ puzzle—22 starters, two specialists, the coach and GM and all three coordinators, six top subs—and even a 36th, Antonio Brown, are back intact. This team could get back on the kind of run it was on last winter, even with a 44-year-old quarterback. As for betting it all on Tom Brady: Of course it is insane to think a 44-year-old man can continue to excel as a young man’s game. But I am not betting against a man who has started all 75 of his teams’ games in his forties, is 56-19 in those games, who has won Super Bowls at ages 41 and 43 and who, at 40, threw for 505 yards in a Super Bowl loss. If Phil Mickelson can win the PGA at 50, why can’t Brady win another Super Bowl at 44? Picking the Chiefs higher than Tampa is based on two things: the magic of Mahomes and a vastly improve KC offensive front.
3. Buffalo (13-3, lost AFC championship to Kansas City)
In rankings like these, I like to favor teams with the arrow pointing up. The Bills went to Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game on an eight-game winning streak. We know how explosive they were all season, but how about the defense Buffalo was playing when it counted? In that eight-game run, the Bills allowed 17.1 points per game. Now they have to find a way to beat Kansas City—they’ll match up for the third time in 51 weeks Oct. 10—after losing by nine and 14 last season. GM Brandon Beane is gambling that his polarizing first-round edge-rusher, Gregory Rousseau, will fortify the biggest need area of the team. Rousseau has had one year of his life rushing the passer at the University of Miami, but the GM believes that 15.5-sack season in 2019 is not an outlier. It’ll be up to Sean McDermott to coach Rousseau into a consistent force alongside vets Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. This team fascinates me. I could see them getting on one of those steamrolling runs the Jim Kelly Bills did a generation ago.
4. Cleveland (11-5, lost divisional game to Kansas City)
First time in forever I look at the Browns and say, “Where are the holes?” Corner depth, maybe; first-round pick Greg Newsome was dogged by injuries at Northwestern, and he’s needed to play a lot. Receiver depth, maybe, particularly with Odell Beckham coming off a torn ACL. Cody Parkey’s a meh kicker. But this is a team of strengths now. The front seven, particularly, could be Steeler-like if rookie linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah hits the ground running as a sideline-to-sideline playmaker, which he was at Notre Dame. Baker Mayfield was significantly more efficient down the stretch (last eight games including playoffs: 15 TDs, two interceptions), which is encouraging. Now he’s got to ratchet up his 62.8-percent accuracy from last year. The arrow’s legitimately up in Cleveland for the first time in a very long time—but the division’s tough as always and the AFC is loaded.
5. San Francisco (6-10)
The Niners made the huge tradeup and Trey Lance draft pick because they couldn’t trust Jimmy Garoppolo (last three years: 23 missed starts) to stay healthy. But there’s something else, another reason for the urgency. The Lynch/Shanahan regime, highly respected around the league and by owner Jed York, has to be feeling some heat because of three losing seasons out of their first four on the job. I think they’re fortunate no one offered a first-round pick to take Garoppolo off their hands, because that would have left them reliant on a top prospect albeit from an FCS school without much experience—and with no insurance policy worthy of a playoff run behind Lance. The 49ers will be good enough on offense. Will they miss departed defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, replaced by DeMeco Ryans? At first glance, the Ryans defense should look very much like Saleh’s, with maybe more physicality in the five-yard bump zone by the corners, and the same playmaking greatness from emerging star Fred Warner at middle linebacker. The Niners need a healthy season from Nick Bosa to be a great defense. And a great defense would allow them to threaten the Bucs for NFL supremacy.
6. L.A. Rams (10-6, lost divisional game to Green Bay)
Troy Aikman told Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times the other day that Matthew Stafford could be the NFL MVP this year on a Rams team with a very good defense and a smart play-designer and play-caller like Sean McVay. Aikman’s right. Someone could waste a lot of time on a doctoral thesis apportioning blame for the Lions’ postseason futility in Stafford’s 12 Detroit seasons, but the fact is, he was the most important player for the Lions for 12 years and the team never won a division title or a postseason game in his era. At 33, Stafford now has the offensive backing and a stout-enough defense to be great in January. Sean McVay wants to go back to the 2017-18 version of his offense, with the deep passing game opening everything up. In 2018, the Rams’ top three wideouts averaged 14.2, 15.1 and 14.2 yards per catch. When Jared Goff lost his fastball and McVay lost faith in him in 2020, the wideout leaders averaged 10.4, 10.6 and 11.9 per catch. Stafford’s going to have every chance to prove Aikman right.
7. Baltimore (11-5, lost divisional game to Buffalo)
John Harbaugh might long for the early days of his tenure, when a quarter of his schedule was played in Palookaville; in his first five seasons, the Ravens went 16-4 against Cleveland and Cincinnati. But the Browns have arrived, and the Bengals might be the modern-day Dan Fouts Chargers, with Joe Burrow throwing to three premier wideouts. So Baltimore could be an excellent team and still go 3-3 in the souped-up AFC North. Add to that this factoid: Seven of the Ravens’ last eight games this year are against 2020 playoff teams. Baltimore will have its customary strong running game, but GM Eric DeCosta’s focus in the offseason was to get more explosive on offense, adding oft-injured speed threat Sammy Watkins and first-round (Rashod Bateman) and fourth-round (Tylan Wallace) to producers Devin Duvernay and Hollywood Brown. Baltimore’s season could well rest on Lamar Jackson’s ability to make sweet music with three or four of those wideouts.
8. Green Bay (13-3, lost NFC championship to Tampa Bay)
Ultimate hedging-my-bet on Aaron Rodgers. I don’t know if he and the Packers will make peace. He seems dug in to not play in Green Bay, but today is May 24. A lot can change in 111 days. That’s how far away the season-opener at New Orleans is. With most players, I’d think, They’ll get over it. It’ll get fixed. Not so sure with Rodgers. He’s strong-willed, to put it mildly, and when he decides to do something, that’s usually it. But there are a few tributaries here. Like: What if the Packers withhold the remaining $23 million of his 2018 signing bonus, and come after the $6.8-million roster bonus he was paid in the spring, and what would Rodgers do about the $2-million collective fine for missing all of training camp that cannot be waived? What if he gets the opportunity to host his beloved “Jeopardy!”? Would he just skip the year and come back—somewhere—in 2022? Impossible to know now. If Rodgers was happy and in the fold, I’d rate Green Bay between 4 and 8 here. If I knew this would be Blake Bortles’ team, they’d be around 20. Pretty big swing.
9. Indianapolis (11-5, lost wild-card game to Buffalo)
Five newcomers with the most pressure on them this year:
Matthew Stafford, L.A. Rams
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis
Urban Meyer, Jacksonville
Zach Wilson, N.Y. Jets
Orlando Brown, Kansas City
Wentz might be one, actually. The Colts paid what likely will be third-round and first-round picks for a franchise quarterback—if Wentz still is one. We’ll find out. In rejoining his former offensive coordinator from the Eagles, Frank Reich, Wentz has the fate of a franchise in his hands after a very shaky 2020 season that ended with an ugly benching in Philadelphia. “I love sticking my neck out for people I believe in,” Reich said last week. “I’m willing to put it on the line for players I believe in. I believe in Carson.” It’s clear that a lot of people lost faith in Wentz and his ability to play full seasons in Philadelphia. What will be different here—not saying it means Wentz will succeed—is the quality of the offensive line, including newcomer left tackle Eric Fisher, coming off an Achilles injury, and the quality of the skill players surrounding him. I think Wentz is a good bet for the Colts. He’s just not a sure bet.
10. L.A. Chargers (7-9)
It’s hard to not be swooning over 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert, who threw for more than 300 yards in eight of 15 starts while he was still learning the offense. Now, he’s learning his third offense in three years (counting 2019 at Oregon), with new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi coming from the Saints with the full Sean Payton package. I trust Herbert will get it, because he’s a brainiac, and because four-year Drew Brees backup Chase Daniel is now Herbert’s backup. But the complexity of the offense means his adjustment will be a work in progress. Herbert’s a big reason why I have the Chargers rising in the West.
11. Miami (10-6)
The Dolphins have done virtually everything they can to build a team ready to win now. I didn’t put the Justin Herbert team one spot ahead of the Tua Tagovailoa team to rub the Dolphins’ noses in the fact that they chose Tua one spot ahead of Herbert in the 2020 draft, but it is a reminder of how big a lift an excellent rookie quarterback can provide a team. Tagovailoa had a C-plus rookie year, benched twice late in the season for performance, and it’s no secret that the team’s fate is tied to him. He should be helped by a significant upgrade at receiver, with Will Fuller IV arriving in free agency and ex-Tide mate Jaylen Waddle in the draft. The way football works these days is a quarterback’s window to prove himself is short. Tagovailoa certainly has this season, but how much after that depends on how he functions in a talented offense . . . and, for instance, whether Houston moves Deshaun Watson. It’s crazy all the factors that could come into play, but Tagovailoa can make them all disappear by completing 66 percent of his throws, making magic with his receivers, and throwing for 4,200 yards.
12. Seattle (12-4, lost wild-card game to Rams)
Big difference between the two men quarterbacking the big football teams in Wisconsin one decade ago: Russell Wilson (Badgers) has some discontent but will be in Seahawks camp doing regular Russell Wilson things in late July; Aaron Rodgers (Packers) has major discontent and may not be in camp. Pete Carroll told Rich Eisen last week the Wilson folderol is much ado about not much. Not so sure about that, and who knows about the future, but Wilson gives the Seahawks a chance—as he does every year—to make a deep playoff run in what is very likely to be the toughest division in football.
13. New Orleans (12-4, lost divisional game to Tampa Bay)
Sean Payton is one of the best head coaches in football by any measure. Fourteen seasons coaching the Saints, nine times winning in double-digits, 10.2 wins per year on average. This will be the first year he’s been a head coach without Drew Brees. So as much pressure as there is on whoever succeeds Brees—Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill or both—there’s going to be a bright spotlight on Payton. Has he coached the turnover out of Winston? Has he coached Hill into being a complete player? For the Saints to surpass Tampa Bay for NFC South supremacy, Payton’s fingerprints must be all over his new quarterback.
14. Arizona (8-8)
No team added more famous puzzle-pieces—J.J. Watt, A.J. Green, Rodney Hudson, Malcolm Butler—in this offseason than the Cardinals. Makes for good headlines, but when you sign four players with an average age 32 years, 1 month, I‘m not expecting a lot in terms of 2021 production.
15. Washington (7-9, lost wild-card game to Tampa Bay)
I think everyone looks at WFT and figures, Nothing to see here. They’ll fall to earth with a thud this year. Not me. Washington went 5-2 down the stretch last year to steal the all-time-lousy NFC East, then gave the Bucs a game in the wild-card round. In that 5-2 run, Washington allowed 15.9 points per game. Four of the wins came on the road (Dallas, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Philly), and each of those foes scored in the teens. Edge twins Chase Young (22) and Montez Sweat (24) might be the best young rush combination in the game. I’m bullish on this team—if Ryan Fitzpatrick is efficient leading the offense. No guarantee there, because, well, there’s never a guarantee with Fitzmagic. This is a 9-8 or 10-7 team, if it can survive Chargers-Bills-Saints-KC-Packers in the first seven weeks.
16. Chicago (8-8, lost wild-card game to New Orleans)
Part of me says, Throw Justin Fields in there right away—he’s a mature kid who’s played great in some very big college games, and he’s obviously the future. The other part of me thinks Andy Dalton is more equipped, much more, to take the heat of Aaron Donald and the Rams on opening night, and then trips to Tampa and Pittsburgh just before the Week-10 bye. The other factor, obviously, is whether Aaron Rodgers plays for the Packers; if he doesn’t, no question Matt Nagy will look at the season more as a win-now than even remotely a developmental one, because Chicago will have a good chance to win the division without Rodgers in it. Nagy said we’ll all know when it’s time for Fields, and I agree; either Dalton stinking it up (which I doubt he’ll do), or Fields starring in the classroom and practice will tell Nagy when it’s time.
17. New England (7-9)
Except for Green Bay, no team this morning is as full of questions as the Patriots. That’s mostly a good thing. Is Cam Newton somewhere north of the awful he was last year? How long can Cam hold off Mac Jones? Will Bill Belichick try to go 2007 redux (Randy Moss) by trading for Julio Jones? Will Dont’a Hightower resume his strong career in the middle of the Pats’ D, or will Belichick permanently opt him out? Will Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry make New England the center of the tight end universe? Will Kyle Van Noy be the force he was before his gap year in Miami? What will the twin departures of Ernie Adams and Nick Caserio mean to Belichick, and can Matt Patricia become some sort of jack-of-all-trades John Nash for Belichick? You answer those questions, even a few, and you’ll have some idea whether the Patriots will be in the middle of the NFL’s morass of mediocrity or contenders to play an 18th game.
18. Tennessee (11-5, lost wild-card game to Baltimore)
A little leery about losing two very strong coordinators in consecutive offseasons. After Dean Pees retired in early 2020 (then un-retired to be Falcons’ DC this year), the Titans allowed a touchdown more per game in 2020 and had a hasty wild-card exit from the playoffs. Now, with star offensive coordinator Arthur Smith off to Atlanta, and Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis departed in free agency, I’m skeptical that Ryan Tannehill can continue his career resurgence.
19. Pittsburgh (12-4, lost wild-card game to Cleveland)
I can’t unsee the 1-4 Steeler finish to the regular season, with Ben Roethlisberger presiding over a crumbling offense, and then the most embarrassing home playoff loss in Steeler history. (Not the fact that they lost, but just the spectacle of Roethlisberger turning it over four times in the first 20 minutes to Cleveland and falling behind 28-0 to Cleveland and giving up 48 to Cleveland, with the Cleveland coach 130 miles away watching from his basement.) Now a remade offensive line and top pick Najee Harris will try to build a running game—the lack of which ruined 2020 for Pittsburgh—with new coordinator Matt Canada. The Steelers benefited from the league’s second-easiest schedule in 2020 to get off to the 11-0 start, but with Buffalo, Cleveland, Green Bay and Seattle on the schedule by Halloween, no such luck this year. In what could be Big Ben’s last stand, he’s going to need help from his line and backfield to get Pittsburgh to double-digit wins. Oh, and Diontae Johnson catching the ball this season would help too.
20. N.Y. Giants (6-10)
GM Dave Gettleman’s free-agency spree reminds me of Jerry Reese’s last-gasp spree in 2016, when the Giants spent huge to buy a defense—Janoris Jenkins, Olivier Vernon, Snacks Harrison—and rode that to 11 wins and a wild-card berth. But it was unsustainable, and Reese paid with his job, and the Giants are 18-46 since. So now, with a win-now edict in effect from co-owner John Mara, the Giants spent $111 million in tight cap times for a gamebreaking wideout, Kenny Golladay, and a good corner, Adoree’ Jackson, to pair with James Bradberry. This can’t be a one-year fix, but rather the start of a good run for young quarterback Daniel Jones (the jury’s still semi-out on him) and a big piece for a defense that showed signs of being a playoff unit last year. For Jones, Gettleman could haven’t done more for him. Adding ultra-solid Kyle Rudolph for a year or two alongside Evan Engram gives the Giants tight end depth. Drafting Kadarius Toney in the first round give the Giants a corps of wideouts that could be a top-10 group if they perform to their résumés. Very interesting, and important, year for a team that’s been too disappointing for too long. Did you know this season’s the 10-year anniversary of New York’s last playoff win? That win, of course, was over the Patriots in the Super Bowl. But that deodorant has worn off. Jones will feel the heat, as will Gettleman, if the Giants stumble out of the gate.
21. Dallas (6-10)
The best player in the NFC East is back, and if Dak Prescott is what he was when we last saw him for a season (2019: 4,902 passing yards, 30 TDs), with a receiving corps bettered by CeeDee Lamb, Dallas will be in the NFC East mix in late December. The bigger question is the defense, obviously. Imagine giving up, in eight of 16 games, 33 or more points . . . and then imagine being alive on the last weekend of the season with Andy Dalton at the helm. So much of this season depends on new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s ability to do what Mike Nolan couldn’t last year—install a complex system, much of that in Zoom meetings, and get players ready to react by opening day.
22. Atlanta (4-12)
This is no reflection on Julio Jones, who likely will walk into Canton one day. But he’s not a make-or-break player for this franchise anymore. The Falcons averaged 24.8 games with Jones in and out of the lineup last year, and with him rarely practicing, and they’ve got a wideout duo (Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage) who aggregated 162 catches for 2,160 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, and they just drafted the best tight end Mel Kiper’s ranked in 43 years of rating college players, Kyle Pitts. The Falcons should make their cap healthier for 2022 and beyond by dealing Jones for either a second-round pick (not sure they can get that for the 32-year-old Jones) or a third-that-could-become-a-second or, quite frankly, the best deal they can make. I think Arthur Smith makes Matt Ryan better and a more efficient quarterback, like he was under Kyle Shanahan in the Super Bowl season. Plus, I think Smith makes Pitts the kind of puzzle piece (running back, tight end, slot receiver, wide receiver) he liked to do with Jonnu Smith in Tennessee. I don’t know how many games Atlanta will win, but I do know this: The Falcons will be a fun watch.
23. Las Vegas (8-8)
I hate dogging Jon Gruden, because he’s really good for football. But it’s time for him to produce. Jack Del Rio coached the Raiders to 25 wins in his three seasons as coach; Gruden’s coached the team to 19 in his three years. He’s not in danger because of his 10-year contract.
24. Minnesota (7-9)
The annual Kirk Cousins referendum is getting so tired. Cousins has played small in some big games, to be sure. And for the Vikings to draft Kellen Mond because they’re tired of being tethered to a gigantic quarterback cap number every year is okay. But my focus here is not on the quarterback. It’s on the part that I am sure made Mike Zimmer lose hundreds of hours of sleep last fall. The Vikings had won five of six entering the last quarter of their season and were 6-6, with their playoff fate in their hands. They proceeded to allow 37 points a game in those last four, spiraling out of the playoffs, fittingly, with a 52-33 holiday loss in New Orleans.
25. Denver (5-11)
I can tell you the Broncos felt knocked in the kisser to be without a Sunday or Monday night game on the schedule this year, the first time since 1991 they’ve been snubbed in those major windows. But when you win 5, 6, 7 and 5 games in the previous four seasons, and you enter (most likely) your sixth straight season without a long-term heir to Peyton Manning, why would NBC or ESPN be excited for you to take a coveted Sunday or Monday night slot? The Broncos would certainly be eager to trade for Aaron Rodgers if he becomes available—and right now, he is not. Ditto Deshaun Watson, and right now he is radioactive. So it’s likely Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater taking the first snap at the Giants on Sept. 12. The good news for Denver? The defense should work, after adding two solid corners in Kyle Fuller and rookie Patrick Surtain II, and with the prospect of Bradley Chubb and the almost-forgotten Von Miller finally playing a full season together.
26. Carolina (5-11)
Everything was a honeymoon for Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady as the Panthers got off to a 3-2 start, even after losing Christian McCaffrey after two weeks to injury. (He returned for one game before shutting it down.) But Carolina stumbled to a 2-9 finish, Teddy Bridgewater was jettisoned at a major cap cost and sideswiped Brady’s coaching after leaving, and the Panthers failed to acquire a major QB upgrade (Matthew Stafford, Deshaun Watson) after the season. So they settled for Sam Darnold, and hope he can be the same Darnold scouts loved in the 2018 draft, before he went to the land of misfit toys, the Jets.
27. Cincinnati (4-11-1)
I look at the Cincinnati future and I see the old Chargers, quarterbacked by Dan Fouts with that explosive receiving corps, John Jefferson and Charlie Joiner and Kellen Winslow. Not saying Joe Burrow will be Fouts, and Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins have a ways to go to be in the Charger stratosphere. But Burrow is fearless like Fouts, and he’s beginning to look like the kind of leader Fouts was, and Burrow throws downfield with the same boldness and fearlessness…What I like about the state of the Bengals is there’s a quarterback who won’t stand for the same old Bengals, who will shake them out of the lethargy of five straight losing seasons. And if you’re not on board, get out of the way. What that means for this year, particularly with Burrow coming off major knee surgery, is probably 5-12 or something in that neighborhood. But mark my words: The Bengals will upset a couple of teams—Pittsburgh, Baltimore or maybe the Raiders—and look impressive doing it.
28. Philadelphia (4-11-1)
This season falls under the category of a classic rebuilding year. The coach and quarterback who were the foundational long-term pieces of the team just nine months ago are gone, and Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts are in their places—for now…The Eagles have some long-term problems, like the state of an aging offensive line, and some significant age on the defensive front. I do like the Ryan Kerrigan addition, at least for one bridge year. A bridge year, the Eagles hope, to a brighter future after an offseason of mayhem.
29. Jacksonville (1-15)
The blank slate team of 2020. New coach with lots of new ideas, like maybe this running back we drafted, Travis Etienne, could play 50-50 RB-WR. New franchise quarterback. New facilities being drawn up. It’s a fun time to be a Jags fan, and there could be dancing all over Duval if the softest September schedule in the league—at Texans, Broncos, Cardinals, at Bengals—plays out to the Jags’ advantage. But this is a long-haul deal for Urban Meyer, who is facing the first losing season of his 18-year coaching life. This season is as much about teaching Lawrence and having him deal with the first hard knocks he’s ever faced as a quarterback. (Career record at Clemson: 34-2.)… Jimmy Johnson has counseled Meyer to not let losses eat him up—and Meyer’s too smart, I think, to let that happen. He told me this spring there’s “zero chance” of him being an NFL short-termer like Nick Saban (two years, 15-17) was in Miami 15 years ago. For his sake and for Jacksonville’s, I hope the health issues (stress, a brain cyst) that detoured previous coaching tenures don’t surface again. Meyer’s a breath of fresh air, and Jacksonville needs him.
30. Detroit (5-11)
The new kneecap-biting attitude of coach Dan Campbell is great, and the Lions need it desperately after the roster tuned out Matt Patricia. These players won’t tune out Campbell. He’s a fire-and-brimstone preacher who will not stand for losing. He is to coaching what Chris Spielman was to playing, and isn’t it fitting that Spielman was part of the Lions management team that hired Campbell? (I say “part,” because I am not positive it was “most,” but that would not surprise me.) Early reviews on Campbell have been sensational, but the NFL offseason is a time of raging hope for even a team like Detroit, which hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991. The reality of games will likely bring some pain, particularly when the quarterback has been downgraded from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff and the receiving corps is minus Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.
31. N.Y. Jets (2-14)
The Jets need to get Nick Foles on the team. He’d be the perfect welcome-to-the-NFL-backup for Zach Wilson. I understand why the Jets jettisoned Sam Darnold; it’d have been Zoo York with him in camp this summer, as nice a guy as he is. But if I’m GM Joe Douglas, I’m figuring a way to pry Foles from the Bears after June 1.
32. Houston (4-12)
Could this change if Deshaun Watson plays, say, eight games for the Texans? Slightly. But Houston won four games with Watson last year, and the team is significantly worse than a year ago. The franchise has the feel of an expansion team, with Tyrod Taylor scrambling for his life behind a shaky line while keeping the seat warm for Davis Mills, who may or may not be the quarterback of the future, handing to 30-year-old Mark Ingram, throwing to 31-year-old Randall Cobb . .. and somehow trying to score occasionally in the thirties. Because that’s what it’s going to take to win this year, with a defense that allowed 29 points per game last year and got worse in the offseason. You say they got Shaq Lawson, and he’ll be an improvement to the Watt-less pass-rush? Well, Buffalo needed pass-rush a year ago and let him walk to Miami. Miami needed pass-rush this year and dumped him in a trade to Houston. So a front seven led by Whitney Mercilus and Lawson (neither of whom has had an eight-sack season in the last five years) won’t keep the heat off perhaps the league’s most suspect secondary.
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