The Daily Briefing Monday, May 8, 2023

The last NFL TV event before training camps open in late July, the release of the schedule, is nigh. What we know this morning:

The release of the schedule, which the NFL had hoped to have for a primetime show Thursday night, may be delayed. It’s still likely to be done in time for release Thursday at 8 p.m., but I was told over the weekend it may not be finished in time. The 2023 mega-games—opening Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, Thanksgiving Day, the new Black Friday tilt, the Sunday night game on Christmas Eve and the Monday tripleheader on Christmas—are not set in stone yet. The mega-games are usually solid by early May. The schedule crew is slated to meet with commissioner Roger Goodell this afternoon in New York, at which time more clarity on the tentpole games is expected. I’m told as of the weekend the NFL was still in search of options on the 272-game regular season slate, with a series of computers continuing to spit out alternatives.

Not so fast on the reports of Kansas City dominating the Germany games in 2023 and 2024.Kansas City is playing a November game in Frankfurt this year; that’s a fact. The German newspaper Bild reported KC would play Chicago in the Germany game, and that KC would play again in Germany in 2024 when Carolina is due to host a game there. Bild reported Carolina’s 2024 foe would be Kansas City. I’ve been told there’s some doubt on both of those reports. First: When a team gives up one of its home games to play overseas, it has the option of requesting to the league one home game on its schedule the team does not want moved. I’m told Kansas City requested that the Chicago game not be played overseas. As for 2024, it’s hard to imagine Carolina would not try to keep Patrick Mahomes’ only currently scheduled game in Charlotte for the next eight years at Bank of America Stadium. You might ask, Wouldn’t Kansas City want to protect red-hot home games against Buffalo, Cincinnati and Philadelphia from moving to Germany? The league would almost certainly not schedule those games for overseas, because Germany games are played in the 9:30 a.m. ET window, which is not nearly as conducive to big ratings as are Sunday late-afternoon or primetime games.

The resolution of the Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson situations allows the NFL to move forward with the Jets to be a heavy primetime team and the Ravens to be more attractive for night games too. I’d previously reported the Jets, who had one primetime game last year without Rodgers, would likely have 11 or 12 primetime/Sunday doubleheader games this year with Rodgers. Each team can be scheduled for six primetime regular-season games, with the league option of flexing that team into a seventh, and then regardless of primetime appearances, any team can be scheduled on Sunday night in week 18. Expect the Jets to have five or six primetime games and at least four or five doubleheader games. Baltimore may not be in prime time as much as the Jets, but the Ravens should expect multiple primetime games as well.

I would not expect every team to have a Thursday night game on Amazon this year. The league traditionally has made Thursday night the receptacle for bad teams once a year to play in prime time. But now that the league passed a rule in March allowing teams to play short-week Thursday games twice instead of once, that could empower the league to eliminate some of the teams that look like bad ones from prime time in favor of maxing out some teams with two Thursday games. So Arizona might be left out this year, and maybe Tampa Bay or Houston. Stronger teams could find two Amazon games on the schedule, which would serve two purposes—strengthening a streaming schedule the NFL badly wants to work for Amazon, and giving good but not great teams with major national followings (Pittsburgh or Green Bay or New England, perhaps, this year) another primetime appearance.

One thing making schedule construction tougher this year: the elimination of the road team determining the televising network for Sunday day games. With few exceptions, the road team for Sunday afternoon games has dictated where it would go on TV. In a game with an NFC road team, FOX would televise. For a game with an AFC road team, CBS would do it. Now, every Sunday afternoon game is a free agent, which expands the possibilities for the schedule. You can be sure CBS will be fighting for as many Kansas City games in the late-afternoon doubleheader slot, and I won’t be surprised if CBS gets every Mahomes doubleheader game this year. With the AFC so much stronger (particularly in franchise quarterbacks), don’t be surprised to see FOX get a couple of roadies with Cincinnati or Buffalo or Baltimore or maybe even the Jets.

And King announces that he will not be around to review the schedule and provide his insider insights next week or for the forseeable future:

This is my last column for 12 weeks. I will resume with a column from the training camp trail on July 31. Nothing really complex about this—I just wanted to take some time off and do some family things (and a bunch of nothing too) before the start of my 40th season covering the NFL this summer. There won’t be any replacement columns in my absence; in the past few years, the guest columns quite often have been more work than my offseason columns. So we just decided that FMIA would go on hiatus till training camps begin.

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com tries to predict the big games:

The NFL’s big waves of offseason player movement have come and gone, and now the league is set to officially turn the page to the 2023 season, with expectations of releasing the full regular-season schedule on Thursday, May 11.

In total, the schedule release will account for 272 different matchups. Here, in anticipation of the unveiling, we decided to predict the games that will be featured on some of the NFL’s most anticipated calendar dates:

Season opener prediction: Chiefs vs. Eagles

Date: Thursday, Sept. 7

The only thing guaranteed about the Week 1 kickoff right now is Kansas City as the host. There are other intriguing possibilities, such as high-octane playoff rematches with the Bengals and Bills. But fresh off a start-to-finish shootout with the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs would draw a sure audience by welcoming a motivated Jalen Hurts to Arrowhead.

‘SNF’ opener prediction: Jets vs. Patriots

Date: Sunday, Sept. 10

Now that Aaron Rodgers is in New York, the NFL will be looking to throw Gang Green squarely into the spotlight. Rodgers is no stranger to “Sunday Night Football,” and what better way for him to make his Jets debut than against a scrappy Patriots team that’s beaten its divisional rivals in 14 consecutive matchups?

‘MNF’ opener prediction: Bengals vs. Bills / 49ers vs. Cowboys

Date: Monday, Sept. 11

If the Bengals and Bills, chief foes of the Chiefs in the AFC, don’t get top billing in the season opener, they stand to see prime-time lights elsewhere. The NFL would probably like nothing more than to open its “Monday Night Football” doubleheader by allowing the divisional round enemies to play the regular-season matchup they never finished in 2022, with a rightful Damar Hamlin tribute baked in for good measure. As for the late game, San Francisco will enter with some kind of quarterback intrigue, regardless of whether Brock Purdy or Trey Lance is active, and the Cowboys are always a prime-time draw.

Thanksgiving Day tripleheader prediction: Ravens vs. Steelers / Lions vs. Packers / Cowboys vs. Jets

Date: Thursday, Nov. 23

Rivalries always do well on holidays, and Lamar Jackson will likely be trying to earn his late-season keep as the newly paid face of the Ravens, while the Steelers always provide an underrated late-year fight. Detroit is a given to host on Thanksgiving, but now the Lions are also playoff-caliber, and the Packers will be looking to remain relevant in a post-Aaron Rodgers world. Speaking of Rodgers, how fitting would it be for him to follow up his old team by guiding the Jets in the nightcap with a visit to Dallas?

Black Friday game prediction: Eagles vs. Giants

Date: Friday, Nov. 24

The NFL’s first-ever Black Friday special will debut this year, and NBC Sports’ Peter King has dubbed this NFC East rivalry the “leader in the clubhouse” for the late-afternoon matchup. We’ll roll with that, because it makes all the sense in the world: Philly destroyed New York on multiple occasions during its run to the Super Bowl in 2022, and the Giants should remain challengers in the East. Provided they’re not playing on Thanksgiving, they could essentially extend the holiday marquee to Friday.

Christmas Day ‘MNF’ prediction: Chiefs vs. Bills

Date: Monday, Dec. 25

Unlike last year, when the NFL seized on a Sunday Christmas to unveil its first-ever Dec. 25 tripleheader, the holiday falls on a Monday this year. But no one ever turns away from a matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, making this AFC playoff rematch an ideal candidate for the end of the holiday weekend. Playoff implications could abound.

CHICAGO

Congratulations to QB JUSTIN FIELDS, now the proud owner of a degree from The Ohio State University.  Jason Owens of YahooSports.com:

Justin Fields has been an NFL quarterback for two seasons. Now he’s a college graduate.

The Chicago Bears signal caller graduated on Sunday from Ohio State with a degree in consumer and family financial services. He showed up to the Buckeye Stadium he called home field for two seasons to receive his degree.

Fields, 24, joined Ohio State in 2019 after a single season as a backup at Georgia. He started two seasons as Ohio State’s quarterback and led the Buckeyes to the CFP semifinals as a sophomore and the national championship game as a junior in 2020. He left Ohio State for the NFL after his junior season.

The Bears rewarded the decision by selecting him with the No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft. He took over the starting job as a rookie and started 15 games in his second season, completing 60.4% of his passes for 2,242 yards with 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He added eight more touchdowns on the ground. His 1,143 rushing yards were the second-most all-time by a quarterback.

In the meantime, he kept working to finish his degree and was one of 191 student-athletes to graduate from Ohio State on Sunday.

GREEN BAY

Peter King with GM Brian Gutekunst on the trading of QB AARON RODGERS:

ll in all, trading Rodgers prior to his age-40 season could backfire on Green Bay. He could be Brady, playing great for four or five more years. That’s the chance they’re taking. But just look at the landscape. Rodgers is reborn in New Jersey, excited to be part of the New York social scene. The Knicks aren’t playing the Heat in the NBA playoffs in Green Bay. Jessica Alba and Spike Lee aren’t chumming up to Rodgers in northeast Wisconsin.

This trade was a must-do. Green Bay got a one and a two, most likely, for a great player who’d checked out of Green Bay. When the Packers did a hybrid two-year contract for Jordan Love, they gave themselves two seasons to make a decision on Love—two seasons at about $22 million. Pretty smart in today’s QB market.

“We believe in our process and in how we make decisions,” Gutekunst told me. “You never get them all right. We like to develop quarterbacks. Part of developing quarterbacks is they gotta sit for a while, I think, and then they gotta play. Obviously, Jordan Love sat and Aaron did a great job just kinda mentoring him. But now Jordan’s ready to play. He needs to play. I think our fans kinda realize why we’re doing what we’re doing.”

The Packers drafted two tight ends and two wide receivers in the first five rounds last week and seem fine with growing with Love and a young core, including 2022-drafted wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. This isn’t a skill group of Randall Cobb and Marcedes Lewis anymore. The Packers felt like it was time, and it was.

“There’s a lot of unknowns,” Gutekunst said. “We’re a very young team. But I think the players, Jordan and the young guys, realize there’s gonna be more and different opportunities than they had in the past.”

KANSAS CITY

Peter King:

I think I found myself wondering this week, with some time on my hands, whether any tight end will ever have the kind of four-season run we have just seen from Travis Kelce. In the last four years, including playoffs, Kelce has caught 525 passes—425 in the regular season, 100 in the postseason—in a total of 76 games. That’s 6.9 catches per game. For reference, the leading tight end pass-catcher ever, Tony Gonzalez, had a career high of 356 catches in his most productive four consecutive seasons. Of course Kelce benefits from playing in so many playoff games, but he’s still 73 catches better in their best four consecutive regular seasons. It’s hard to overstate the importance of Kelce in a generational NFL offense.

HOUSTON

Peter King sounds like he would rather be Arizona than Houston in the big trade:

I’ve heard this point from quite a few readers and some in the media, so I’ll let reader Rick Lawson make the point: “I think your take on the third overall pick is incorrect. What the Texans gave up was for C.J. Stroud not Will Anderson. If they took Anderson at two, then other teams could have outbid them for Stroud. You even stated that in one of your items. There is no added pressure on Anderson due to what the Texans gave up for the pick. That compensation was so they were able to draft two cornerstone players.”

There’s no doubt the Texans would have risked some other team jumping them for Stroud had they picked Anderson two and then tried to trade for Stroud. The inference is that Anderson is the real number two here, and the high compensation was actually for Stroud. I do not believe it.

After my trip to Houston on Friday of draft weekend, I do believe Anderson was higher-rated than Stroud on the Texans’ draft board. But I also believe GM Nick Caserio and coach DeMeco Ryans knew a quarterback was essential for the team with the worst record in football over the past three years, and for the team with the worst QB situation in football today. Caserio told me the day after the draft that there was still work to do once Arizona was on the clock at number three, even though the two teams had had discussions about trading the pick prior to the draft. As Albert Breer of The MMQB pointed out the other day, Cards GM Monti Ossenfort had no idea once the third pick was on the clock whether he’d have gotten another offer that would not have forced him to use the draft capital to move back up to get Paris Johnson Jr. at number six. If Ossenfort comes out and says, “We agreed to that deal and locked it up before the draft,” then I might change my opinion. But I don’t think that happened, and until it was locked in the 10-minute period of pick three, there was no guarantee Anderson was going to Houston.

Now, if the pick Houston traded ends up being for one of the franchise quarterbacks who turns out to be a Mahomes or Burrow, and if Anderson isn’t a standout star, you can bet the Texans will take heat for the trade. For the record, this is what Caserio told me on the trade to three:

Me: “You traded franchise-quarterback compensation to go get Anderson. You felt that strongly about Anderson.”

Caserio: “When you make a trade, there’s gonna be compensation involved with it. The terms are the terms and you’re either comfortable with the terms or you’re not. How we look at it, really—it’s really two extra picks that we really gave up. Essentially, we were gonna pick in the first round anyways. We had 12 (the 12th overall pick). So we really didn’t give up anything other than move. It’s really more positioning. So really the two additional picks next year were sort of the extra capital if you look at it in real terms.”

Me: “It’s a lot though, a one and a three.”

Caserio: “In the end, you accumulate assets and then you use them at your disposal.”

Caserio omitted the fact that Houston also traded its high second-round pick, 33rd overall, in the deal for Anderson, and received the 105th overall pick, which Caserio traded for the Eagles’ third-round pick next season.

Two more points: The Texans have been awful, and they’re sick of being awful. If this is the double-pick that kick-starts Houston to relevance, all the power to Caserio. We can’t know the result now. It’s not a trade I would have made, but it’s not my rear end on the line either.

INDIANAPOLIS

Did the Commanders try to lure Andrew Luck out of retirement?  Stephen Holder ofESPN.com:

Colts owner Jim Irsay wants to make it clear that Andrew Luck is off-limits.

After learning the availability of Luck was the subject of an inquiry last year by the Washington Commanders, Irsay took to social media Sunday night to warn teams about any correspondence regarding the long-retired Colts quarterback.

“If any NFL team attempted to contact Andrew Luck (or any associate of him) … to play for their Franchise — it would be a clear violation of the League’s Tampering Policy,” Irsay posted on Twitter.

Luck, 33, who retired in 2019 with three seasons remaining on his contract, technically remains the property of the Colts. The contract tolled after his departure, meaning that if he ever elects to return to the NFL, the Colts would own his rights.

ESPN reported Saturday that Washington made attempts in 2022 to learn whether Luck had any interest in returning to the NFL. It is unclear who, exactly, Washington had contact with about Luck.

A Colts source said the team is unclear about the nature of the conversations, but it is seeking to learn more about what exactly transpired and whether any tampering occurred.

The NFL’s anti-tampering policy is somewhat vague, but direct contact with a player is not required for a violation to occur.

“Any public or private statement of interest, qualified or unqualified, in another club’s player to that player’s agent or representative, or to a member of the news media, is a violation,” the relevant portion of the policy states.

Luck, a four-time Pro Bowl selection who retired at age 29, has adamantly stated in the past he has no intention of returning to the NFL.

– – –

Chris Cwik of YahooSports.com on why GM Chris Ballard felt compelled to draft QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON:

Ballard revealed why he was so high on Richardson in a team documentary about the 2023 NFL Draft. Ballard said the fear of missing out on Richardson’s ceiling was a major factor.

“I didn’t want to look up and watch him be a superstar somewhere else,” Ballard said around the eight-minute mark. “If he’s going to be a superstar, he’s going to be a superstar for the Colts.”

Richardson’s ceiling is immense. Earlier in the video, team exec Morocco Brown described Richardson as an “alien,” a “meta-human” and a “purple spotted unicorn.” Brown also explained the team doesn’t view Richardson as a finished product yet, saying, “You don’t pick Anthony for what he is right now. You pick him for what he can become.”

The Colts will need to hope Richardson can develop into the player the coaches envision. Indianapolis has been searching for an answer at quarterback ever since Andrew Luck surprisingly retired ahead of the 2019 NFL season.

Since then, seven players have started games under center for the Colts. That list includes Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Nick Foles, Brian Hoyer, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz.

Richardson could put an end to that rotating chair the moment he’s named the team’s starter. That could come sooner than expected. Though some believed Richardson would need time to develop, Colts owner Jim Irsay said shortly after the draft he expects Richardson will “start this season.”

If he performs well, 31 other general managers will be kicking themselves for letting the Colts grab a superstar with the No. 4 overall pick.

NEW YORK JETS

A Peter King factoid:

Aaron Rodgers’ salary-cap number for 2024, as it stands today, is $107,600,000. That is $22.1 million more than the NFL salary cap number per team in Rodgers’ rookie year, 2005.

THIS AND THAT

PETER KING’S POST-DRAFT RATINGS

Here is how Peter King thinks things stand 1 to 32:

It’s too early, and I’m not ready to form rock-solid opinions on ranking the teams 1 to 32. I’m going to do it here, but I reserve the right to change my mind after seeing the teams in training camp. I’ve separated the teams into seven categories.

Can’t find a weakness

1 –  Philadelphia. The Eagles averaged 34.7 points per game in the playoffs, have adequately compensated for losses of both coordinators, are not worse at any position (amazing on the defensive line, considering they had a 69-sack year last year and lost Javon Hargrave), have an offensive line that should keep upright a rising superstar QB-of-the-future at the top of his game, and will field two top-15 NFL wideouts entering their age-25 (DeVonta Smith) and age-26 (A.J. Brown) seasons.

They’ve got Super Bowl vibes

2 – Kansas City. Most wins in the last four seasons, including playoffs: KC 62, Buffalo 51, Green Bay 49. Eleven more wins than any team since 2019 qualifies as a wow. Andy Reid, as usual, has work to do, after losing left tackle Orlando Brown, leading wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and speed receiver Mecole Hardman in free agency.

3 – Cincinnati. Since New Year’s Day 2022, Cincinnati has beaten Kansas City by 3, 3 and 3, and lost by 3—after being tied at 20 with 30 seconds left and punting to Patrick Mahomes. (Guess what happened.) Lucky for the Bengals, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo didn’t get the Arizona job—he’s been as good as a schemer can be against Mahomes.

4 – San Francisco. I know you don’t necessarily pick up where you left off the previous year, and I know the QB situation is odd, but prior to the quarterback injury implosion in the NFC title game, I can’t unsee this truth: The Niners were on a 12-game winning streak, with nine of the wins by double digits.

5 – Buffalo. Bills at the crossroads after the toughest playoff loss any team suffered last season (Bengals 27, Bills 10, at Orchard Park). Josh Allen needs Gabe Davis to return to late-2021 form, and for two additions—first-round TE Dalton Kincaid and under-appreciated free agent WR Trent Sherfield—to contribute immediately. Very important year, chasing the ever-elusive Lombardi.

They’re on the border

6 –  Detroit. Loved ‘em with their 8-2 record after Halloween. I still find myself smitten with the Lions. But curious move this offseason. The Lions took what wasn’t broken and tried to fix it. Jamaal Williams/D’Andre Swift last year: 1,608 rushing yards, 4.5 per rush, 22 rushing touchdowns. Now both are gone. That’s pressure on Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, particularly when the head coach is a big-time running guy.

7 –  Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has the best weapons, by far, that he’s had since being drafted five years ago. Now he needs to stay on the field, and his collective weaponry should improve his 33-to-20 TD-to-pick differential over the last two years.

8 –  Miami. Slight edge over the Jets counting on two big things happening: Tua Tagovailoa being healthy for 15 games and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio markedly improving the league’s 24th-ranked scoring defense.

9 –  N.Y. Jets. It’s logical to think Aaron Rodgers will lift all Jets, and I believe he will. Rodgers is the kind of person who can set his mind to something—such as showing the Packers and the world he’s not kaput entering his age-40 season—and go out and do it.

10 – Dallas. Know why this is a crucial year for the Cowboys? They’ve won 24 regular-season games in the last two years, then scored 36 points in eight quarters in two playoff losses to the Niners. Dak Prescott’s got to do something about that, now.

If all goes right …

11 –  N.Y. Giants. No team exceeded expectations in 2022 more than the Giants, and to build on that, Daniel Jones and a rising defensive front both have to be 10 percent better. I believe each can be.

12 – Seattle. They’re deep at running back (Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet), and there aren’t many teams with a better three-man receiver corps than D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

 13 – Jacksonville. Rising team, with one asterisk. For all borderline playoff teams, the most important rookie this year might be tackle Anton Harrison, picked 27th by GM Trent Baalke after starting 24 games at Oklahoma, because of the free-agent loss of right tackle Jawaan Taylor and the looming PED suspension, reportedly, of left tackle Cam Robinson.

14 – Minnesota. The league’s 31st-ranked defense has lost Dalvin Tomlinson, Eric Kendricks and Patrick Peterson already, and edge Za’Darius Smith badly wants out. The Vikings can score, but they can score consistently in the low thirties, which they may have to do to contend?

15 – L.A. Chargers. You can’t unsee blowing a 27-0 playoff lead and losing to the Jags, which makes the resuscitation of pricy cornerback J.C. Jackson vital after his lost 2022 season.

16 – Pittsburgh. NFL position group with the most surprising 2023 makeover: the Steelers’ secondary, with corners Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter Jr. and safety Keanu Neal. Every one of those is a double take.

17 – Cleveland. I think Deshaun Watson is still good, but how can you tell after seeing him play six (highly) mediocre games in the last 28 months?

18 – Tennessee. Feels like the Titans are a slow start from Will Levis playing by Nov. 1, selling Derrick Henry by the trade deadline, and building for 2024.

They’ve got holes

19 –  Las Vegas. Devon Witherspoon would have been the perfect draftee, due to the Raiders’ major corner need in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert (and Russell Wilson if he can be revived), but pressure from Tyree Wilson would be vital for the pass defense as well.

20 –  New England. Other than new OC Bill O’Brien, it’s hard to get excited about a team that finished losing five of the last seven, with the D/special teams allowing 29.7 points per game in the last seven weeks. And then defensive leader Devin McCourty retired.

21 – Green Bay. Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers were 14-15, combined, in their first starting seasons in Green Bay. So a rocky season for Jordan Love won’t rock the Packers’ future with him, unless 2023 is a total debacle.

22 – Atlanta. One thing I think: The Falcons offense has the most diverse weaponry of any offense in football; imagine trying to defend monstrous Cordarrelle Patterson and Jonnu Smith, big-man receiver Drake London and elusive Bijan Robinson in the slot, and 1,000-yard-rusher Tyler Allgeier as a sledgehammer alternative.

23 – Denver. Broncos will be a playoff contender if Sean Payton unlocks Russell Wilson. It is entirely possible Payton will.

24 – New Orleans. A bad division is there for the Saints to win—if old warhorses like Demario Davis, Cam Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu can muster up one more charge, and if Derek Carr can improve a team that was 22nd in scoring last year to middle of the pack.

Under construction

25 – Carolina. I don’t expect it to take long for Bryce Young to get up to speed in the Carolina offense, but what no one knows is if Young will be sturdy enough to make it through an 18-week NFL campaign.

 26 – Indianapolis. There are more problems than the five-year revolving door at quarterback, so don’t just laser-focus on when Anthony Richardson plays. See if Gus Bradley can mend an atrocious D that allowed 36.6 points a game after Dec. 1.

 27 –  Washington. I get giving Sam Howell his big chance here, and backing him up with Jacoby Brissett is okay too. But keep in mind how far this offense—which averaged 17.7 points a game in the last 16 weeks—has to go.

28 – L.A. Rams. Not saying Sean McVay reads Football Morning in America, but I do believe that retching sound you’ll hear around 7 a.m. PT today is the sound of McVay vomiting when he sees his team ranked 28th in the NFL offseason power rankings.

29 – Chicago. Bears have fixed a lot of things in one offseason, without question, and could be anywhere on this list from 31 to 13 by December. But today, I need to see more of Justin Fields the passer to fall in like with this team.

30 – Houston. I don’t think a team with the presence and ethos-changing ability of DeMeco Ryans and the playmaking ability of C.J. Stroud can be the worst team in the league.

31 – Tampa Bay. Well, the Super Bowl was still worth it.

Wait till 2025

32 – Arizona. The best thing about being awful this year is GM Monti Ossenfort could have the next 11 months to figure out whether his quarterback of the future is Kyler Murray or if it it’s one of the mega-prospects due out in the 2024 draft—Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

BROADCAST NEWS – THE 2024 DRAFT

Richard Dietsch of The Athletic says the networks are already salivating at the potential for the 2024 Draft:

Next year’s draft in Detroit, in fact, came up a lot during my reporting of how ESPN/ABC and the NFL Network produced this year’s NFL Draft in Kansas City. Everyone I spoke to said the Detroit draft has a chance to be special on a number of fronts.

“For the most part, this was a draft of starters and not stars,” said the NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah. “Next year, it’s the stars. We’ve got star players, not only at quarterback, but all these other positions. This year’s draft was fun, and we didn’t know what would happen with the quarterbacks and where they were going to go. But next year, it goes to a different level of guy.”

The 2024 NFL Draft, which will run April 25-27, 2024, is expected to feature USC quarterback Caleb Williams and North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. All industry-leading draft experts have said both would have been drafted above Bryce Young, this year’s No. 1 overall pick, had they been in the mix in 2023. Next year’s draft is also likely to include Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and other experts have said would have been the easy No. 1 wide receiver selected had he come out this year. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is considered one of the best tight end prospects in years. Alabama has two potential top-five picks with linebacker Dallas Turner and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. As is always the case, other players will emerge.

“I’m already fired up and looking forward to getting a chance to study this next group of guys,” Jeremiah said. “Anybody that has paid attention has seen Caleb Williams and how talented he is. I saw Drake Maye last year because they played against my alma mater, Appalachian State, and I was like, ‘Holy crud, this kid’s pretty good.’ It’s a long list of really talented players. It should be a special college football season, and I think that’s going to take us right into an awesome draft.”

Charlie Yook, the NFL Network’s executive producer, said he and his team spent hours in Kansas City discussing the potential of the draft in Detroit. ESPN vice president of production and NFL Draft point person Seth Markman was also raving about the potential of 2024.

“We feel next year’s names will elevate the draft,” Yook said. “If you ask the draftniks on either side of the ledger at ESPN or us, they would say those two quarterbacks will be better than any of these quarterbacks this year. You have the best wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., that we have seen in a long time. There are serious talents like Brock Bowers of Georgia State and the tackles, Olumuyiwa Fashanu from Penn State and Joe Alt of Notre Dame. They might be No. 1 picks in a different year.”

The most-watched opening round came in 2020 when sports shut down due to the onset of COVID-19 pandemic. That draft — a QB-loaded opening round with Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love — drew a whopping 15.26 million viewers. The 2021 NFL Draft (Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick; Zach Wilson and Trey Lance followed) averaged 12.52 million viewers, the second most-watched opening round. (The record prior to out-of-home viewing being counted (which started in 2020) was the 2014 opening round, which saw Johnny Manziel fall to the Browns at No. 22.) The 2023 NFL Draft was a viewership success, up 11 percent over 2022, with an average audience of 11.4 million viewers across ESPN, NFL Network, ABC, ESPN Deportes and digital channels (versus 10.3 million in 2022).

Presuming the stars above remain healthy, I think the 2024 NFL Draft is going to finish as the second most-watched first round of all time. We’ll see if I’m right in 11 months.

2023 DRAFT

ESPN’s horde of experts list their favorite and least favorite picks of the draft:

What was your favorite pick of the draft?

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Quarterback Anthony Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4.New Colts coach Shane Steichen can scheme for Richardson’s dual-threat traits like he did with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. This is a really good spot for his pro development.

Mike Clay, fantasy football analyst: Quarterback C.J. Stroud to the Houston Texans at No. 2. The speculation in the weeks leading up to the draft that Houston would pass on a QB with the second pick never made sense. And fortunately for Texans fans, Houston didn’t do it. It’s the most important position in football, so Houston adding a potential franchise quarterback early in the draft was a no-brainer.

Liz Loza, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Tight end Michael Mayer to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 35. This was not my favorite splash pick, but it was certainly a solid value for Las Vegas. Mayer is a pro-ready player with high-end ball skills. He figures to slide right into coach Josh McDaniels’ offense, working as a short-to-intermediate target for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Defensive tackle Jalen Carter to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 9.Carter is potentially the best overall talent in the ’23 draft class and lands in an environment where he has known leaders — and former teammates at Georgia — around him in defensive tackle Jordan Davis and linebacker Nakobe Dean. Carter can learn behind Fletcher Cox and is in the best-case situation for unleashing his immense potential.

Eric Moody, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Offensive tackle Darnell Wright to the Chicago Bears at No. 10. This pick filled a huge hole along the offensive line for a Bears team that allowed the fourth-most sacks last year (58). Wright is a plug-and-play starter for Chicago and has a physicality unmatched by any other offensive linemen selected in the first round.

Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Richardson to the Colts at No. 4. To say he wowed scouts at the combine would be an understatement, so it was no surprise he went so high in the draft. And for Richardson, he lands in a great place for his development. He’ll grow under the tutelage of Steichen, who knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks.

Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Stroud to the Texans at No. 2. After a disastrous 2022 season, the Texans were seeking a true franchise quarterback. And they got one. Stroud is poised, polished and accurate, and he is exactly the type of player Houston needs under center moving forward.

Mike Tannenbaum, NFL front office insider: Quarterback Will Levis to the Tennessee Titans at No. 33. The Titans have their heir apparent to quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and there is no rush to play him. Learning from Tannehill for a year is the ideal situation for Levis to develop; he threw 23 interceptions in the past two seasons and still has some work to do on his game.

Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Quarterback Hendon Hooker to the Detroit Lions at No. 68.Questions about Hooker’s age, recovery from a torn ACL and transition from that Tennessee offense to the pros are all fair. But in the third round, it’s a tolerable risk for Detroit to take for the potential upside of a quarterback who ranked No. 1 in QBR last season. He also won’t be rushed onto the field with Jared Goff in line to be the starter.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Cornerback Christian Gonzalez to the New England Patriots at No. 17.We typically see a mixture of drafting for need and drafting for value, but the Patriots managed to check both boxes early — even after trading down from No. 14 to No. 17. Gonzalez was viewed as one of the 10 best players in the entire class and fills the Patriots’ most pressing need, as a cornerback with 6-foot-1 size and great speed.

What was the biggest head-scratching pick?

Bowen: Linebacker Marte Mapu to the New England Patriots at No. 76. This isn’t a knock on Mapu as a prospect, as his versatility will be utilized in Bill Belichick’s defense. Instead, this is about the Patriots passing on some much-needed offensive juice here with wide receiver Josh Downs and running back Devon Achane still on the board. I thought both prospects would’ve boosted the pass game for quarterback Mac Jones.

Clay: Running back Zach Charbonnet to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 52. OK, I’m going to put on my fantasy football hat here and yell at Seattle for selecting Charbonnet, which crushes the fantasy upside of both he and Kenneth Walker III. The UCLA product has a three-down skill set, and we were hoping he’d land a feature back role somewhere. Instead, he’ll slot in behind — or, best case, alongside — 22-year-old Walker for the next few seasons. Seattle had other roster voids it could’ve filled.

Loza: Kicker Chad Ryland to the New England Patriots at No. 112. The Pats traded up for a kicker with below-average leg strength, and they did it two rounds before they addressed the wide receiver position.

Miller: Linebacker Jack Campbell to the Detroit Lions at No. 18. Campbell is a good player, and middle linebacker was a moderate need for the Lions. But the Mike linebacker position has been devalued across the league, and Campbell could have been drafted later after a trade down the board. This isn’t knocking the player but rather questioning the value this early in the draft.

Moody: Running back Jahmyr Gibbs to the Detroit Lions at No. 12. Detroit’s decision to draft Gibbs this early may not have been the wisest move, as many draft experts had projected him as a late first-round pick at best. Despite his playmaking ability, superb route running and reliable hands, the Lions missed an opportunity to address more pressing needs on their team. Adding to the confusion, they had already signed back David Montgomery in free agency.

Jason Reid: Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes to the Washington Commanders at No. 16. It was bad enough that the Commanders didn’t address their offensive line in the first round. But to instead take a 166-pound player so high, well, their whole approach here was a true head-scratcher.

Jordan Reid: Campbell to the Lions at No. 18. The Lions entered the draft with two first-round selections and prime opportunities to address premium positions but failed to do that. Campbell is an instinctive and productive linebacker, but the selection seemed premature. Detroit needed help up front, and better players were available at that spot.

Tannenbaum: Forbes to the Commanders at No. 16. While I like Forbes’ game a lot, I thought a 6-foot-1, 197-pound Christian Gonzalez — who was still on the board at Washington’s pick — was the better player. Forbes has ball skills (14 career interceptions), but his 6-foot, 166-pound frame concerns me in the first round.

Walder: Running back Bijan Robinson to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. Taking a running back in the top 10 — a low-value position where veterans are available on the cheap — is almost indefensible. For a team likely without a franchise quarterback on its roster and with another young back already on the team, it’s even worse. Defenders of the move will say the Falcons are a run-first team, so this fits. That isn’t a good thing. Running a lot is just what you do when you don’t have good enough quarterback play, as the Falcons didn’t last season.

Yates: Wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. to the Denver Broncos at No. 63. This has nothing to do with Mims as a prospect. But when a team that is bereft of 2023 draft capital and already has Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick on its roster makes a move up from No. 68 to No. 63 to take another receiver, my antenna goes up. Could a trade be forthcoming?

5^th YEAR OPTION DECISIONS REVIEWED

Brad Spielberger of ProFootballFocus.com reviews the 5^th year option decisions

• Pair of surprises at linebacker: The Seahawks’ Jordyn Brooks and the Ravens’ Patrick Queen both had their options declined despite showing promise.

• Commanders decline Chase Young’s option: The most fascinating decision facing any team on this list, Young is a key member of a defensive line chock-full of talented players who have either already signed extensions or are soon due for big money.

• Packers instead opt to retain Jordan Love on an extension: The Packers seemingly leaned more toward declining Love’s option with the decision to extend him, but he could still play his way into a sizeable deal.

The fifth-year option window for 2020 first-round picks came and went without much fanfare. But with just 12 options exercised, the class set a new low mark by a wide margin. The average since 2011 has been around 20 per class, including the 2018 and 2019 groups under the same rules as the 2020 class with the options now fully guaranteed at exercise.

Some have sharply pointed out that this 2020 class had its pre-draft process disrupted by the pandemic, which perhaps made it more challenging for clubs to get a good sense of each player and person. Without doing a full-scale deep dive to explore that idea further, it does appear to have some merit:

Draft Class        Options exercised*        Players exceeding 50^th% WAR expectation

2011                             19                                     17

2012                             20                                     14

2013                            18                                      12

2014                             23                                     22

2015                             19                                     13

2016                             17                                     17

2017                            18                                      20

2018                             22                                    19

2019                             19                                    16

2020                             12                                     14

*Includes players who were extended at an average annual value greater than the option amount in the same offseason as the option decision

The 2020 class had five fewer options exercised than any prior group and came in well below the 19 in 2019 and 22 in 2018 under the same rules. While 2020 was tied for the third-fewest players to exceed the 50th-percentile WAR outcome expectation for their draft slot, you can see in 2012, 2013 and 2015 how teams were more willing to look past some struggles out of the gate. Chicago Bears edge defender Leonard Floyd, the No. 9 overall pick in 2015, had his option exercised and then was cut prior to the 2019 season, an illustration of how the new rules change the calculus for clubs.

With that said, we lay out each decision and highlight some of the more interesting results across the league.

PICK NO. 1: CINCINNATI BENGALS: QB JOE BURROW

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 92.4 (4th/62)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 11.0 (4th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $29,504,000 (1 Pro Bowl)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 2: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: EDGE CHASE YOUNG

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 87.2 (12th/189)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.58 (18th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $17,452,000 (1 Pro Bowl)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Declined

This was the most fascinating decision facing any team on this list for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, the Commanders extended interior defender Daron Payne this offseason to the tune of $90 million across four years, one offseason after signing Jonathan Allen to a four-year, $72 million extension. 2019 first-round edge defender Montez Sweat is entering his fifth-year option season in 2023 coming off a career-high 86.4 grade with 62 quarterback pressures.

Now with Young’s option declined, if Sweat is not extended prior to 2023, both players will be entering contract years. While Young’s knee injury sustained in 2021 cost him a whopping 22 games, he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie for a reason, as his 87.2 overall grade ranked sixth among edge defenders on the season.

This decision looks heavily influenced by the new rules making the 2024 money fully guaranteed, which worked against Washington ultimately exercising the option.

PICK NO. 3: DETROIT LIONS: CB JEFFREY OKUDAH

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 50.1 (180th/213)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.05 (300th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $11,514,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined (Not eligible)

Prior to the deadline, I reported that Okudah had his contract altered to facilitate his trade from Detroit to the Atlanta Falcons. Ian Rapoport of NFL Media sharply pointed out that this contract reworking made Okudah ineligible to have his option picked up by Atlanta. Had Okudah’s entire contract been transferred to the Falcons, they would have been able to exercise the option for 2024. Now, he enters a pivotal contract year.

PICK NO. 4: NEW YORK GIANTS: T ANDREW THOMAS

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 80.8 (22nd/223)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.63 (13th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 5: MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB TUA TAGOVAILOA

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 76.0 (24th/62)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 4.27 (19th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $23,171,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercised

    Result: Exercised

With Jalen Hurts already extended, and further movement in the quarterback market following the Lamar Jackson contract, it remains to be seen if Miami will work on a multi-year pact with Tagovailoa or continue to go year to year. We’re guessing he enters the 2023 season with his current contract.

The Dolphins were the first team to come out and announce they were exercising the fifth-year option, an important and emphatic statement following a series of concussions to Tagovailoa in 2022 and with speculation swirling about a hypothetical pursuit of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Tagovailoa may not join Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert in potentially receiving huge extensions this offseason, but he certainly earned this option after leading the NFL by over half a yard with 8.6 yards per attempt in 2022.

PICK NO. 6: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: QB JUSTIN HERBERT

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 89.7 (7th/62)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 9.62 (6th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $29,504,000 (1 Pro Bowl)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 7: CAROLINA PANTHERS: DI DERRICK BROWN

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.2 (28th/192)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.48 (17th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $11,665,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 8: ARIZONA CARDINALS: LB ISAIAH SIMMONS

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 59.1 (82nd/144)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.29 (41st)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,722,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

Simmons was the first of four off-ball linebacker types drafted in this first-round class, although his role has changed countless times. All four players have logged at least 2,000 snaps over their first three seasons, yet each enters a contract year in 2023. From 2016-2020, there were 14 off-ball linebackers taken in the first round, and none signed an extension with their drafting team. Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson from the 2015 class is the last player to do it.

2019 No. 5 overall pick Devin White did have his option exercised by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last offseason, but he requested a trade in April over reported frustration with a lack of advancement in extension talks. The position is very tough to project from college to the NFL and often has a steep learning curve over the first three-plus years, making it generally a poor investment early in the draft.

After being shuffled around a bit on defense, Simmons appears to have found a home as a box safety/slot player in Arizona, earning a career-best 67.9 grade in 2022 and showing the type of athleticism that made him a top-10 pick with his acrobatic pick-six against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football. New head coach Jonathan Gannon may find a place for him going forward but was willing to let his contract play out in the meantime.

PICK NO. 9: CAROLINA PANTHERS: CB C.J. HENDERSON

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 51.1 (176th/213)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.02 (265th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $11,514,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

PICK NO. 10: CLEVELAND BROWNS: T JEDRICK WILLS JR.

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 64.0 (105/223)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.12 (200th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

Wills is the blindside protector on an offensive line that now has three players signed near the top of their respective position markets, not to mention a quality center in Ethan Pocic who agreed to a solid deal to return in free agency. Wills offers a very high floor as a pass protector, earning three straight grades of 67.9 or better in that facet, and the Browns were smart to push an extension decision out one more offseason as they spend big money across the rest of their roster. This was probably a fairly easy decision, even for a team currently No. 1 in cash spending for 2023 and 2024.

PICK NO. 11: NEW YORK JETS: T MEKHI BECTON

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.6 (44th/223)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.08 (66th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $13,565,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

This was probably a tough decision, but especially now that these options are fully guaranteed, the Jets had to think about all the extra money they’re spending on Aaron Rodgers and friends over the next two seasons. There appears to be a disconnect between the coaching staff and Becton about where he should play on the line, as well. He has expressed frustration about not being viewed solely as a left tackle.

Becton showed so much promise as a rookie, earning a 76.0 pass-blocking grade and 73.9 run-blocking grade while displaying rare athletic ability at the NFL level. Unfortunately, he’s played a total of 48 snaps over two years since, and now he enters a prove-it year that could lead to a huge reward.

PICK NO. 13: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: T TRISTAN WIRFS

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 88.6 (4th/223)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.98 (2nd)

    Fifth-year option amount: $18,244,000 (2 Pro Bowls)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 14: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DI JAVON KINLAW

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 48.7 (154th/192)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.09 (305th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $10,455,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

PICK NO. 15: DENVER BRONCOS: WR JERRY JEUDY

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.1 (58/210)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.40 (57th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,987,000

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

Despite what has been said publicly, there remain rumblings that the Denver Broncos would consider moving Jeudy for the right price. A 24-year-old, former top-15 pick coming off a productive season is going to cost a decent amount in trade capital on a very team-friendly deal for $15.67 million total over the next two years. With a few injuries causing Jeudy to miss time early in his career, he has the lowest option amount at just under $13 million, which is low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 wide receiver money at this point on an annual basis.

Despite playing within a horrific passing attack in 2022, Jeudy set career highs across the board and showed why he was taken this early back in 2020, earning a 77.9 receiving grade with 987 receiving yards on 68 receptions (14.5 yards per reception). He averaged a strong 2.18 yards per route run, which ranked tied for 15th among wide receivers. Whether he remains in Denver or does find his way to a new club before Week 1, he has the potential to be a great value the next two seasons.

PICK NO. 16: ATLANTA FALCONS: CB A.J. TERRELL

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 73.8 (t-27th/213)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.86 (19th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,344,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 17: DALLAS COWBOYS: WR CEEDEE LAMB

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 87.6 (10th/210)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 1.12 (8th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $17,991,000 (1 Pro Bowl)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 18: MIAMI DOLPHINS: T AUSTIN JACKSON

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 50.2 (133rd/223)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.23 (214th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

PICK NO. 20: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: EDGE K’LAVON CHAISSON

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 47.5 (179th/189)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.20 (305th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,141,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

PICK NO. 21: MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JALEN REAGOR (drafted by Eagles)

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 60.7 (160th/210)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.07 (150th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,987,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

PICK NO. 22: MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 92.5 (2nd/210)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 1.87 (2nd)

    Fifth-year option amount: $19,743,000 (2 Pro Bowls)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 23: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: LB KENNETH MURRAY

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 44.0 (123rd/144)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.14 (270th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $11,727,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

The Chargers signed veteran Eric Kendricks to a two-year deal in free agency and used their third-round pick on Washington State linebacker Daiyan Henley, preparing for a potential future without Murray.

PICK NO. 24: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: G CESAR RUIZ

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 57.1 (90th/150)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.19 (228th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $14,175,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

The fifth-year options for interior offensive linemen may experience a downturn under the new rules because it’s tough to justify exercising the fully guaranteed option on a fringe decision with only one set of values for all offensive line positions. Ruiz would’ve been fully guaranteed $14.175 million for 2024, which would’ve ranked in the top 10 in terms of average annual value among guards. If he were a tackle, perhaps this is more palatable, but nevertheless, we believe the Saints when they say this doesn’t necessarily mean they have no interest in working out a multi-year extension for less money per year.

Ruiz hasn’t been a liability thus far in his NFL career by any means, but he also hasn’t exactly been a huge benefit to the offensive line unit. Through three seasons, Ruiz hasn’t earned a pass-blocking or run-blocking grade of at least 65.0 in any year. The learning curve for first-round guards is generally a lot flatter than that of tackle prospects, and if he hasn’t shown much already, it’s possible he won’t take a major leap.

PICK NO. 25: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: WR BRANDON AIYUK

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 83.9 (22nd/210)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.97 (15th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $14,124,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Exercised

PICK NO. 26: GREEN BAY PACKERS: QB JORDAN LOVE

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 47.1* (N/A)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.23* (101st)

    Fifth-year option amount: $20,272,000

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Extended

*Only 157 total snaps

As expected, this was going to be a tough option decision to predict, and we would view the extension as leaning more toward a decline than an exercise. Love’s base value over 2023-24 with the option exercised would have been $22.57 million. After the extension, it’s $15.8 million with upside. Love secured a raise of $7.5 million for the 2023 season and could, of course, play his way into a big extension, rendering all of this moot. But Green Bay used its leverage well here, certainly appearing to weaponize the threat of not exercising the option.

The $9 million in escalators Love can add to his 2024 compensation are as follows from Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated:

Only the $500,000 for playing 65% of the offensive snaps is relatively easy to attain; the remaining $8.5 million will take a strong season from Love in various categories.

The main priority of both parties here was to protect their downside risk, with Green Bay avoiding a Daniel Jones situation and Love avoiding a poor 2023 performance leading to missing out completely on a post-rookie contract payday. While we haven’t seen the details of the contract yet, we assume the $5.5 million in guaranteed salary for 2024 contains offset language, meaning Green Bay could recoup the amount Love hypothetically earns elsewhere.

The Packers found themselves in this unique position because of their willingness to let a rookie contract quarterback develop for multiple years behind a veteran starter, a strategy that clearly worked wonders with Love’s predecessor in Aaron Rodgers. Love’s story is not written just yet, but based on this extension in lieu of the option, Green Bay protected itself about as well as possible.

PICK NO. 27: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: LB JORDYN BROOKS

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 52.5 (84th/144)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.58 (16th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,722,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Declined

Brooks tore his ACL in January, putting his Week 1 status in question and most likely flipping this decision from a yes to a no. Seattle reunited with franchise legend Bobby Wagner on a one-year deal, but make no mistake, Brooks is the future at off-ball linebacker for the Seahawks. His 61 defensive stops in 2022 were tied for sixth most among off-ball linebackers, demonstrating his great sideline-to-sideline range in run defense, in addition to his known strength as a downhill player.

Even with the injury, we were somewhat surprised by this outcome.

PICK NO. 28: BALTIMORE RAVENS: LB PATRICK QUEEN

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 44.5 (120th/144)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.10 (84th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $12,722,000 (Playtime escalator)

    PFF Prediction: Exercise

    Result: Declined

The Ravens traded for former Chicago Bears linebacker Roquan Smith at this past year’s deadline and subsequently made him the highest-paid player at his position early in the offseason, which made this an interesting decision. Queen took a major step forward in 2022, earning a 70.0 overall grade and racking up 24 quarterback pressures and five sacks. However, it’s interesting to note that his grades received a boost following Smith’s arrival. Baltimore still seemingly began to move on from Queen in their mind once making the blockbuster acquisition at the trade deadline.

PICK NO. 30: MIAMI DOLPHINS: CB NOAH IGBINOGHENE

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 40.1 (209th/213)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: -0.15 (349th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $11,514,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined

PICK NO. 32: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: HB CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE

    PFF grade, 2020-22: 74.4 (48nd/108)

    PFF WAR, 2020-22: 0.26 (27th)

    Fifth-year option amount: $5,461,000

    PFF Prediction: Decline

    Result: Declined