| If The Season Ended Today in the AFC: AFC ConfIndianapolis South 8-2 6-1Denver West 8-2 5-2New England East 8-2 4-2Pittsburgh North 5-4 4-2LA Chargers WC1 7-3 6-1Buffalo WC2 6-3 4-2Jacksonville WC3 5-4 3-3Kansas City 5-4 2-3Houston 4-5 3-2Baltimore 4-5 2-3 Even though they both won, Denver moved ahead of New England in Week 10 with a conference win. The Chargers moved up into the top Wild Card spot by a more straight-forward route – they won and the Bills lost. The Chiefs, still out of the playoffs at the moment despite Jacksonville’s loss, remain the oddsmakers Super Bowl favorites. Kansas City Chiefs +550Philadelphia Eagles +750Detroit Lions +850Los Angeles Rams +850Buffalo Bills +950Seattle Seahawks +1000Green Bay Packers +1000Indianapolis Colts +1100Baltimore Ravens +1400Denver Broncos +1800New England Patriots +2200Los Angeles Chargers +2500Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3000San Francisco 49ers +3300 You can get better odds on Patriots and Broncos, both 8-2, than on the 4-5 Ravens. Better odds on the 8-2 Patriots than the 6-3 Bills, who the Patriots beat in Buffalo. – – -We will update the NFL tomorrow after the big Philadelphia at Green Bay game. But even if the Eagles lose, they haven’t lost much ground this week (the Cowboys were on bye but the Commanders and Giants lost). This: @JClarkNBCSThe rest of the NFC East just keeps losing. While the Eagles have won two straight games, the rest of the division has lost 11 straight. It looks like the Eagles will be the first repeat champion in the division in 20 years since the Eagles last did it. This from Chase Daniel: @ChaseDanielSeahawks, Colts, Patriots, Rams, & Broncos are CLEARLY the best teams in the NFL right now. Didn’t think I’d be saying this in Week 10 The DB notes the supremacy of the West – take the top three teams in each of the West divisions – Rams, Broncos, Seahawks, Chargers, 49ers and Super Bowl-favorite 5-4 Chiefs. Take the other 24 teams, what do you have – Eagles, Patriots, Buccaneers, Packers, Colts, Bills. Which group is better?- – -We would assume that the pro-Chiefs slant of the oddsmakers would carry over to the MVP race – but, at the moment, QB PATRICK MAHOMES is not the favorite. You can find various odds – here is Monday morning at FanDuel: Drake Maye +300Matthew Stafford +300Jonathan Taylor +500Patrick Mahomes +600Josh Allen +700Sam Darnold +800Jalen Hurts +2000Jordan Love +2500Lamar Jackson +3000Jared Goff +3000Justin Herbert +3000Baker Mayfield +3000 |
| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITThe Lions offense had been – okay – so far in 2025. Then, on Sunday, Coach Dan Campbell started calling the plays. Eric Woodyard of ESPN.com: – Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties from first-year offensive coordinator John Morton this past week, and it ignited a dominant 44-22 victory over the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Campbell said he met with Morton for an honest conversation to discuss some changes last Monday, a day after a stunning home loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Entering Sunday’s game, Detroit ranked among the league leaders in total points per game but was still struggling to find an offensive identity outside of the home run plays. “Look, it was honest, it was he and I, and we were good,” Campbell said of the meeting. “And like I told him, ‘Man, I need you … but I feel like this is something that I’m going to do.’ “Listen, John Morton’s all team. That’s all he cares about. He just wants to win. He wants to be a part of it. He wants to help where he can, and he was outstanding today. “He’s a grinder, he’s a worker, and he just tries to help and give you anything you can possibly need for the game. Look, if you’re him, of course it probably doesn’t feel too good, but he’s also a pro and he understands everything, so we move on.” The Commanders upset the top-seeded Lions in the NFC divisional round in January. In the rematch, Detroit got revenge, scoring on eight consecutive offensive drives with Campbell drawing up the plays. Campbell was spotted on the sideline wearing eyeglasses while talking into the headset in between plays with a play sheet in his hands. He said he was so focused on the task that he didn’t notice President Donald Trump in attendance. “I’m in this place, and I didn’t know what’s going on around me half the time,” he said. “So, it was either defense was out there or I’m trying to get the plays ready, so I didn’t even know. But that’s cool. Now that I know he was definitely here, you’re talking about the President of the United States, that’s a big deal.” Wide receiver Jameson Williams seemingly benefitted from the change, finishing with six receptions for a team-high 119 yards and a touchdown. The more-involved Williams hadn’t eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark since Week 2 against the Chicago Bears (108 receiving yards). “It was kind of funny seeing him with the glasses, for sure,” Williams said, laughing. “It was like my first or second time seeing him with the glasses. It’s a different look, for sure.” Things looked different on the field, too, as Detroit racked up a season-high 226 rushing yards and 546 total yards. Lions quarterback Jared Goff said the preparation for Sunday’s matchup didn’t feel any different during the practice week, as Morton continued to serve a big role, particularly in the pass game, which Campbell still feels is vital. “You’ve got to give Johnny a ton of credit for handling it the way he handled it as a veteran coach, and a guy who has shown to have no ego over and over,” said Goff, who went 25-for-33 with 320 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. “Like to have that happen and for him not to miss a beat in the game planning and helping me and the passing game and the whole thing was really cool and impressive by him, and it all worked really well together this week.” Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs also bounced back from a career-low 28 scrimmage yards on a season-low 12 touches in Week 9 against Minnesota with a season-high three scrimmage touchdowns on 18 touches. “It was just, ‘Let’s try something a little different,'” Campbell said. “Look, I know what I want to do. I know how I want to do it. Now, that being said, this is a collaborative effort now. I was taking input from John Morton that whole time, and the other coaches.” Campbell previously took over playcalling duties from former offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn in 2021 after a 44-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8. Lynn ultimately was replaced by Ben Johnson that offseason. Goff and Campbell, however, insist this scenario is different. “I don’t relate those two the same even remotely,” Goff said. “We were 0-8 when that happened and 5-3 when this happened, and it was completely different circumstances.” Added Campbell: “I know how the other one ended, but this is where I’m at, and he’s in a great spot and he helped me out today.” After Johnson left the Lions for the Bears’ head coaching job this past offseason, Campbell admitted he considered calling the offensive plays before he hired Morton but realized it would require a lot from him as a head coach. Now, Campbell is primed to carry the dual roles for the foreseeable future as the Lions enter a tough November stretch that includes a road trip to Philadelphia next week. “It’s like anything else, when you do it, you adjust and you start figuring out what you need to do, how you need to do it, become more efficient and it’s really ultimately about what’s right for the team always,” Campbell said. “Nothing else matters. “I feel good with where we’re at. I wasn’t perfect. Goff bailed me out of some stuff today, but I like the setup of the staff, and I think the players are in a good place, and I think we can grow from here,” he said. “I really do.” |
| NFC EAST |
| NEW YORK GIANTSThis account puts all the blame on Coach Brian Daboll. @JoeSchoenMVPAgainst the Cowboys, Broncos, and Bears the Giants had a 92.3%, 99.3%, and 96.9% chance of winning late in the 4th quarter. Brian Daboll lost all of them. The odds of that happening is 1 in 60,000. The DB would counter with – against a brutal schedule, the Giants are 2-8 and should be 5-5. With wins over the Eagles and Chargers. With WR MALIK NABERS out for most of it. With RB CAM SKATTEBO now gone. With a rookie QB. Really, looking from above, it probably hasn’t been all that bad a year in terms of expectations and capability. So that said, the Giants have jettisoned Daboll. Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post: Brian Daboll won NFL Coach of the Year and then stopped winning just about anything. The Giants fired Daboll on Monday, sources told The Post, in the aftermath of their fourth loss this season featuring a blown double-digit lead and a fourth-quarter meltdown. Daboll’s four-year tenure began with great promise in 2022: The Giants started 7-2 and later won their first playoff game since Super Bowl 46, which earned him top honors among his peers. It’s been all downhill since, including an 11-33 record since the start of 2023 and a 5-22 record since the start of 2024 to drop his overall mark to 20-40-1 (5-17-1 against the NFC East). This is the third straight season of 2-8 after 10 games. “I believe in the guys we have in the room, coaches and players,” Daboll, 50, said after Sunday’s loss to the Bears. “But we lost another tough one, so we have to start doing it.” Time’s up. Daboll’s .336 career winning percentage is the 18th worst in NFL history among coaches with at least 50 games, but his .250 clip since 2023 would be the fifth-worst behind even Giants predecessors Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge. The Giants are turning to offensive coordinator and assistant head coach Mike Kafka — who has been at Daboll’s side from day one — as interim head coach for the final seven games, per multiple reports. Kafka was runner-up for the Saints head coach position in February. The spotlight now shifts to the future of general manager Joe Schoen, whose premium draft-pick misses have hamstrung the roster. Back when things were at their apex and Daboll was a New York celebrity, Giants owner John Mara warned Daboll, “In this business, it doesn’t take long to go from Bono to Bozo.” Daboll never donned a red nose but his behavior sometimes fit the bill. Feuding behind the scenes with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and undercutting the defensive coaching staff led to Martindale walking out of the building in January 2024. The defense has never recovered – in part because Daboll’s reputation for being hard to work for limited the desirable candidates to replace Martindale – despite pricey player investments. Sideline blowups became a regular part of Daboll’s personality, whether it was icy stares at his coordinators, screaming at team doctors or disgustedly flipping an iPad at former quarterback Daniel Jones. Flouting of the NFL’s concussion protocol by peeking his head into the sideline medical tent to interrupt Jaxson Dart’s exam cost Daboll a $100,000 fine earlier this season. Not only did Daboll — in his successful attempt to become a player-friendly coach — rarely admonish players publicly, but a lack of accountability in terms of lost playing time for lack of effort and missed assignments also became a hallmark of his style. Hired over New York native Brian Flores because of his Bills-bred relationship with Schoen and his reputation as a quarterback guru who developed Josh Allen, Daboll proved a mismatched personality with Jones. That relationship impeded the Giants’ progress even after Schoen and Daboll committed a four-year, $160 million contract to Jones. When that experiment failed, Daboll was allowed a big voice in the quarterback search and he bet his career on drafting Dart, who has been sensational enough through seven starts to make the rest of the league second-guess its scouting departments. But Daboll added injury to insult against the Bears. Daboll’s refusal to coach Dart into sliding on scrambles and his approval of play calls that leave the rookie quarterback susceptible to injury made the predictable happen and put the future of the franchise at risk: Dart has been checked for a concussion four times since the preseason and didn’t pass Sunday’s test. The Daboll Giants set one franchise record with 10 straight losses last season and set another Sunday with their 11th straight road loss. The active skid accounts for allowing 23 points in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Cowboys in Week 3, 33 points in the fourth quarter against the Broncos in Week 7 and 14 points in the final four minutes against the Bears. Daboll’s struggle to correctly manage the game-day roster — particularly at kicker — has proved costly in close games. And only the Panthers have scored fewer points per game over the last three seasons. “It’s a bottom-line business,” Mara said last January after deciding to keep Schoen and Daboll. “You’re judged on what your record is, and our record is pretty lousy right now. I get that and I take responsibility for that.” This is just the second time since 1976 that the Giants have fired a head coach in-season. The other instance happened after Ben McAdoo benched the legendary Eli Manning (with ownership’s permission) in 2017 and had a locker room full of questionable characters disobeying team rules. The axe fell on two coordinators and six assistant coaches from Daboll’s staffs before it fell on the top. The interim coach will be OC Mike Kafka. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Multiple reports say that Kafka will be named the interim head coach for the 2-8 club. It will be his first time in a head coaching role. Kafka played quarterback at Northwestern and appeared in four games for the Eagles during the 2011 season. He remained active as a player through 2015 and joined Andy Reid’s staff in Kansas City in 2017. He spent four seasons as the Chiefs’ quarterbacks coach before joining Daboll’s staff in 2022. Kafka has interviewed for multiple head coaching vacancies in recent years and will now get a seven-game run to try to convince the Giants or another team that he should get a top job on a permanent basis. The DB heard a name at lunch today from someone who might know as to who is #1 on the Giants Daboll replacement list. But before we drop that, let’s see who GMENHQ.com has: Here are four strong candidates who could replace Daboll. 4 head coaches who make sense for Giants after firing Brian Daboll: Mike Kafka (Offensive coordinator – New York Giants)It’d be pretty shocking if the team didn’t turn to Mike Kafka as the interim coach. The 38-year-old second-year OC could have a couple of games, serving as an audition to prove to Giants brass he’s the guy they should move forward with. Kafka originally hailed from Kansas City, where he worked alongside superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It’s unclear how involved he’s been in Dart’s development, but if he has been, that’s a pretty good sign of his potential as a quarterback guru. The lack of success the Giants have had while Kafka’s been employed in East Rutherford is concerning, but there’s a chance Dabs is responsible for most of it. He’s received HC interviews the past two coaching cycles, suggesting he’s not some long shot. His hiring will likely come down to his success as the interim coach, if the G-Men go that route. Klint Kubiak (Offensive coordinator – Seattle Seahawks)Kubiak’s name is buzzing for a reason. In his first year running Seattle’s offense, he’s helped turn quarterback Sam Darnold into an MVP candidate and has wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba flirting with a historic season. The Giants don’t have that kind of firepower yet, but pairing Kubiak with Dart and a healthy Malik Nabers would be a heck of a start. He’s from the Mike Shanahan coaching tree, and it shows. Yes, he’d be a first-time head coach, and there are fair questions about staff-building and game management — things that have plagued Daboll. What separates him from the others is his dad, Gary Kubiak, was a relatively successful head coach for 10 years. Clearly he’s picked up something. If the priority is maximizing the offense and finally developing a real identity, the 38-year-old should be at the top of the list. Jesse Minter (Defensive coordinator – Los Angeles Chargers)Minter will be a hot commodity this next coaching cycle. He’s built elite defenses everywhere he’s been — and the G-Men could use someone who can hold a double-digit lead. He helped Michigan win a national title, then jumped to the NFL and turned the Chargers into the No. 1 scoring defense in his first year in 2024. Funny enough, we’ve been banging the Minter drum for a while now. If Big Blue is serious about getting something out of their loaded defensive front, Minter makes a lot of sense. This team’s poured premium picks and money into guys like Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Get someone who knows how to use them. Dart will need an offensive mind to help him grow — but that can be the OC. The next head coach needs to fix the culture, and Minter’s the type who could actually do it. Kliff Kingsbury (Offensive coordinator – Washington Commanders)Kingsbury is the only former head coach on this list, and his résumé in Arizona wasn’t perfect, but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth a look — especially for a team trying to build around its 22-year-old quarterback. He’s helped Jayden Daniels look like a star in Washington, and his track record developing QBs is legit. Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams — now Daniels. That sounds pretty sweet. The 46-year-old is the kind of offensive mind who could actually build something that works around Dart. He’ll need to prove he can hire a staff and handle the full scope of the job, but the bones are there. He knows how to build a dangerous offense — and that’s not something New York has had in a while. The name we heard today – Kirby Smart, head coach, Georgia. We shall see. |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAMike Sando of The Athletic on where KYLER MURRAY may turn as his time with the Cardinals draws towards an end. Is baseball next for Kyler Murray? It’s hard to envision another NFL team giving up much for him, let alone assuring him a starting job.The Cardinals’ decision to name Jacoby Brissett their starting quarterback (and later place Murray on injured reserve) didn’t matter in Week 10 against a red-hot Seahawks team in Seattle. Arizona might have lost that game with 2008 Kurt Warner at the offensive controls. The QB switch matters very much in the big picture. It’s clear the Arizona staff would rather bet its future on Brissett, a 32-year-old journeyman spot starter, than on Murray, the 2019 No. 1 draft choice earning seven times as much in annual salary. And for good reason. “He gets the tight end (Trey McBride) more involved and clearly knows where to go with the football,” an opposing coach said. “The ball comes out quicker, the timing is better, everything.” Brissett gives the Cardinals a chance to run their actual offense, which is heavy on under-center formations. The offense has also been more productive with him, even after the rough game at Seattle. So, what’s next for Murray, who has $36.8 million in fully guaranteed salary next season? It seems unlikely the Cardinals would still have Murray on their roster on March 22, 2026, when $19.5 million in 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. “I think they’re gonna have an awakening if they think they can get something for that kid somewhere else,” an exec from another team said. Not that anyone would likely walk away from nearly $37 million, but would Murray even want to be a backup? “Do you want him to be your backup in Cincinnati? In Pittsburgh?” another coach said. “These are completely different offenses. If you wanted to get your backup behind Lamar (Jackson), maybe? Is he done as a starter? It’s a fascinating question. Would Miami take him?” Murray turns 29 before next season. The MLB’s Athletics own his baseball rights after using the ninth overall pick on him in 2018, before Murray had declared his intention to play football. The last time Murray played baseball, for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2018, he batted .296 with 10 home runs in 51 games as a centerfielder. “Would the Jets consider him?” another exec asked. “He can go try baseball.” |
| LOS ANGELES RAMSIf you were going to give an MVP Award that was both deserving for the season in question – and as a suitable testament to a wonderful career (and that may have happened to Buffalo’s JOSH ALLEN last year) – then this year that vote has to go to QB MATTHEW STAFFORD. He is on an astonishing run as Cameron DaSilva of USA Today explains: His season-long numbers are wildly impressive, but his play in the last six games has been historic. After throwing five touchdown passes and two interceptions in the first three games, he’s tossed 20 touchdown passes and no picks in the six games since. He’s averaging 281.3 yards per game and has a 122 passer rating during that stretch, too. As Puka Nacua put it after Sunday’s 42-26 win over the San Francisco 49ers, Stafford is “on a heater.” There’s no telling when Stafford’s hot stretch will end, but before it does, we’re taking a look at all the history he’s making and records he’s setting. 1st player in NFL history with 4 TDs, 0 INTs in 3 straight gamesStafford has diced up the defenses of the Jaguars, Saints and 49ers in the last three weeks, throwing four touchdown passes in each of those three games. He’s the first player in NFL history to throw at least four touchdown passes and no picks in three straight games, while also becoming the seventh player all-time with four touchdown passes in three consecutive games. Aaron Rodgers did have a three-game stretch of four touchdown passes and no picks, but that included a postseason game. Stafford is the first to do it in the regular season. 2nd-most consecutive TD passes without an INTSince throwing a first-quarter interception against the Eagles in Week 3, Stafford has thrown 22 touchdown passes and no picks. His 22 straight touchdown passes without an interception are the second-most in a season, trailing only Tom Brady’s 26 in 2010. 1st QB in franchise history with 4 TD passes in 3 straight gamesStafford’s recent three-game streak of four touchdown passes in each one is the first of its kind in franchise history. No Rams player has ever had such a stretch – not even the great Kurt Warner. Most TD passes in a 3-game span in franchise historyWarner previously held the franchise record for the most touchdown passes in a three-game span, tossing 11 in 1999 and 2000. But with his four touchdown passes on Sunday, Stafford now has 12 in his last three games to break Warner’s record. Only QB in NFL history with 20 TDs and 0 INTs in a 6-game spanStafford’s last six games have been outstanding, throwing 20 touchdown passes and no picks to go with a 5-1 record. He’s the first quarterback in league history with 20 touchdown passes and no interceptions in a six-game span during a single season. 9th player ever to reach 400 career touchdown passesWhile this stat doesn’t pertain to his recent stretch, it does show the longevity and success Stafford has had in his career. He became the ninth quarterback in NFL history to throw 400 touchdown passes in his career, doing so on a throw to Davis Allen in the second quarter Sunday. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CINCINNATIThe return of QB JOE BURROW is less than 21 days away. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com: Joe Burrow is getting closer to returning. The Bengals announced on Monday that the club is opening Burrow’s 21-day practice window, as the quarterback returns from injured reserve. Burrow has been on IR since Sept. 16, having suffered torn ligaments in his toe during Cincinnati’s Week 2 victory over Jacksonville. The initial reported timetable had Burrow potentially returning to play in December. The Bengals noted that Burrow will practice in a limited capacity as he builds his way back up. Cincinnati can activate Burrow to the 53-man roster at any point during the 21-day window. In two games this year, Burrow completed 21-of-36 passes for 189 yards with two touchdowns. In 2024, Burrow led the league with 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, earning AP comeback player of the year. The Bengals are currently third in the AFC North at 3-6. |
| PITTSBURGHQB AARON RODGERS is honest after Sunday night’s dud. Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com: “We as an offensive collective were off today, and certainly, he’s a component of that,” Tomlin said. “I’ll let him speak for himself, but we certainly got to be better. Didn’t feel like they did anything unanticipated, but certainly, they outperformed us, particularly in possession-down play.” Rodgers was frank in his self-evaluation. “This was not my best performance,” he said. “I got to play better than this for us to win. Whatever it takes … if it’s better checks, if it’s better throws, whatever it is, I got to play better. I will. … We got to play better on offense, for sure. But this is part of the season. There’s ebbs and flows, there’s ups and downs, and we can’t ride the wave.” Playing in what could be the 41-year-old California native’s final game in his home state, Rodgers struggled from the Steelers’ first series when, after two short completions to running back Jaylen Warren and wide receiver Calvin Austin, he scrambled to avoid pressure and missed Austin on third down. That marked the first of nine consecutive third downs the Steelers failed to convert until they finally were successful on two in garbage time en route to a late touchdown. Rodgers finished 16-of-31 passing for 161 yards. “A lot of stuff wasn’t working,” Rodgers said. “We were bad on third down. I was just a little bit off. I missed DK [Metcalf] early. Could have been a big play. … I missed some throws for sure. And then we weren’t getting guys open … times the guys were open, I missed some throws I usually make.” Rodgers connected with Metcalf on just 3 of 7 targets for 35 yards, and his first interception came as he tried to hit Metcalf late in the second quarter. Instead, the ball sailed high over Metcalf and into the arms of Chargers rookie RJ Mickens. Rodgers was 0-of-5 on passes of at least 15 yards downfield, including that one. He was also sacked three times, including by Khalil Mack for a safety to end the Steelers’ third drive of the game. “I didn’t really see anybody open, and I felt like when I stepped up, I saw Mack, and I didn’t realize that he had kind of lost touch with Troy [Fautanu],” Rodgers said of the safety. “I should have thrown the ball on somebody’s feet there.” Rodgers responded with a better drive on the Steelers’ next possession when he connected with Metcalf for a 19-yard gain, a 15-yard completion to Darnell Washington and a 9-yard gain to tight end Pat Freiermuth. But the drive stalled just beyond the red zone, thanks to a holding penalty on Fautanu and an overturned ruling on what appeared to be a catch by Jonnu Smith on a high, off-target ball from Rodgers. Chris Boswell then missed a 45-yard field goal attempt to give the Steelers nothing to show for the 52-yard drive. The offense came up empty again in the fourth quarter when a Pittsburgh drive ended with a turnover on downs as Rodgers tried to force the ball to Metcalf in the end zone on fourth down. Instead of a score to make it a one-possession game, the ball was knocked down, and the Chargers responded with a 90-yard touchdown drive to take a 22-3 lead and seal the win. “I probably should have thrown it the other side,” Rodgers said of the fourth-down throw to Metcalf. “He was doubled. I should have thrown it more back shoulder or maybe work the other side.” Despite all the miscues and missed opportunities, Tomlin still expressed a belief that his team, which saw its lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North shrink to one game, would move forward from its third loss in four weeks. “I’m not lacking confidence,” Tomlin said. “I don’t need a pat on the back. We stunk it up tonight. We’ll be back.” |
| AFC SOUTH |
| HOUSTONThe Texans and Jaguars made history Sunday – they had a Scorigami with the first 36-29 game in NFL history, 1094th unique score in NFL history. |
| INDIANAPOLISBill Barnwell tries to pin down the 8-2 Colts after an overtime win in Berlin: Indianapolis Colts (8-2, No. 1 seed)Week 10: Beat the Falcons 31-25 (in overtime)Here’s the perfect example of how difficult it’s becoming to evaluate the top of the AFC. Did Sunday’s performance make you more or less confident in the Colts? A win is a win, and the Colts overcame the absence of injured defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck) to take down the Falcons in Berlin, prevailing in overtime on Jonathan Taylor’s third touchdown of the game. You could spin that victory as a positive. Taylor was incredible, as we’ll get to in a moment. The Colts showed a certain ability to battle adversity and persevere that they haven’t needed to show very often in 2025. After the Falcons took a 25-22 lead with 1:48 to go, Daniel Jones overcame a third-and-21 over two plays and got the Colts in range for a game-tying 44-yard field goal. The defense then stiffened in overtime, and in lieu of settling for a field goal, coach Shane Steichen’s offense drove 57 yards for a game-winning touchdown. And yet, at the same time, it feels like the new things we learned aren’t positives. Indy gave up 25 points to a Falcons offense that didn’t pick up a single third down all game. The Colts survived by recovering four of the game’s five fumbles, including three of their four lost footballs on offense. Even with new cornerback Sauce Gardner in the mix, the Colts weren’t able to close out the game with a stop of Michael Penix Jr. in the fourth quarter, as the Falcons drove 71 yards without ever needing to even face a third down before Tyler Allgeier plunged in from 1 yard out to give Atlanta a lead. What was most worrisome, though, was another high-variance game from Jones. One week after he turned the ball over five times and took five sacks in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers, the veteran threw an interception, fumbled three times (losing one) and was sacked seven times on just 33 dropbacks against the Falcons. Jones made a number of big plays, including a 19-yard scramble to help extend the game on the final drive of regulation, but there were more lows than the Colts were dealing with during Jones’ incredible start to the campaign. Across his first eight starts in a Colts uniform, Jones did an impeccable job of avoiding negative plays. He threw just three interceptions, fumbled twice and took a mere nine sacks, which yielded the league’s best sack rate at the time. Over his past two games? Jones has four picks and eight fumbles. He has been sacked 12 times, more than doubling his total from the prior two months of the season. Is some of that variance? Of course. Jones got away with a dropped interception or two during the first half of the season. One of his interceptions against the Steelers was a throw to the flat that was deflected by one Pittsburgh linebacker to another like they were setting up a volleyball spike. When you’re running hot, those balls hit the ground, and when you’re not, they somehow land in the wrong hands. The sacks, though, are a real concern. The true outlier for Jones versus the player he was in New York was that sack rate. Even as Giants coach Brian Daboll aggressively encouraged Jones to get the ball out quickly and his offenses ran some of the shortest average air yard rates of any team in the league, Jones took sacks on 8.5% of his dropbacks in New York. Those takedowns led to difficult down-and-distances and issues with fumbles and strip sacks. Steichen had managed to both create opportunities for Jones to throw the football downfield and avoid the sacks that would typically come with those shots. That calculus has shifted over the past two weeks. It’s one thing when the players in front of Jones struggle. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann allowed five quick pressures against the Steelers. Taylor whiffed on a pass block against the Falcons for one sack, while another looked like it came on a broken play, with nobody bothering to block a defender flying up the A-gap. There’s not much Jones can do about that. Sack rate is a quarterback stat that often transfers from team to team, though, and Jones simply wasn’t careful with the football against Atlanta. Each of his three strip sacks came on plays in which Jones needed to protect the football and did not. He didn’t feel pressure in or around the pocket on two of the sacks and had the ball popped out when he was running toward the sideline on the third. Those are on the QB, not the offensive line or his pass protection. And even if they end up as sacks, Jones can’t let them become strip sacks, because there are no guarantees that the Colts will be able to fall on the football 80% of the time in the future. This offense has been ruthless all season, but the Colts really weren’t that on Sunday. One Jones fumble just outside the red zone cost the Colts a shot at three points. Michael Badgley missed a field goal and an extra point. Indy failed on a fourth down at the 5-yard line when Taylor was stuffed for a 2-yard loss and on a 2-point attempt when Jones was late to throw the wheel on mesh and gave the Falcons’ defense time to bat the pass away. The best argument: This is the best offense in football in the middle of a potentially historic run by its best player. The Colts were bailed out by Taylor, who responded to his worst game of the season in Week 9 by almost singlehandedly carrying the Colts over the line Sunday. Steichen basically turned the game over to Taylor midway through the third quarter, and the running back finished the day with 32 carries for 244 yards and three scores. The best of the day was his 83-yard touchdown, with Taylor getting bottled up around the line of scrimmage, somehow sneaking out of the pile and outrunning cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. to the sideline and up the field. Steichen and the offensive line have done a great job of setting Taylor up for big runs this season, but this one was all No. 28. Taylor’s dominant run really started in the final quarter of the 2024 season before extending into 2025. Over that 14-game stretch, he has 306 carries for 1,766 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns. Nobody is within 500 rushing yards or six rushing touchdowns of the Colts star over that span. Pro-rate that performance out over a full 17-game season and Taylor racks up 2,144 rushing yards, which would be the single-season rushing record. The 26-year-old would get to 26 rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores, which would be 29 scrimmage touchdowns, second in NFL history behind LaDainian Tomlinson’s 31 scores in 2006. Taylor would have a legitimate shot in the MVP balloting if he broke one vaunted record and came close to a second, especially if Jones continues to struggle. That would leave the credit for a wildly successful season to the Colts halfback. If you’re arguing that the Colts really are the best team in the conference, of course, that’s where the story begins and ends. Indy’s 3.2 points per possession remain the fourth best for any offense since 2000 through 10 weeks, trailing only the 2018 Saints, 2007 Patriots and 2018 Chiefs. It didn’t end well in the postseason for any of those teams, but by the time we got to January, they were all rightly recognized as offensive juggernauts. The Colts might slip some in the second half, but they’ve been good enough for long enough to be taken seriously as an uncommonly spectacular offense. The most realistic criticism: They’re missing superstars beyond Taylor. Jones has struggled badly over the past two weeks, and while I’m not writing off what we saw from him over the first two months of the season after two disappointing games, it would also be foolish to simply discredit everything we saw over six seasons in New York as irrelevant. Jones unquestionably has talent and has made strides in Indianapolis, but he has looked out of rhythm over the past two weeks. The Colts have a very different ceiling with the Jones we saw in September and October than the one who has struggled in November. Buckner was the focal point of the Indy pass rush and has no clear timetable for return after suffering a neck injury, which might make Gardner’s presence as the team’s new star on defense more essential. The former Jets standout played 100% of the snaps in his Indy debut, allowing three catches for 46 yards as the nearest defender in coverage, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo responded to Gardner’s arrival by playing man coverage at Indy’s third-highest rate of the season, and Penix went 5-of-12 for 59 yards against man-to-man defense. Indy probably needs at least a couple of superstars beyond Taylor and guard Quenton Nelson if they want to make a deep playoff run, though. The meaningful résumé: 29-28 win over Broncos, 38-24 win over Chargers, 27-20 loss to Rams In games against stiff competition, the Colts have basically battled their opponents to a draw. They manhandled the Chargers, lost a frustrating one to the Rams in part because of Adonai Mitchell’s brutal fumble on his way into the end zone and had a game against the Broncos come down to the final snaps, where a leverage call against Denver turned a field goal miss from 60 yards out into a 45-yard kick to win the game for Indy. And Mike Sando’s anonymous confidant’s wonder if CB SAUCE GARDNER is really all that good: The Colts paid a premium for Sauce Gardner in an era where the shutdown corner doesn’t shut down nearly as much. Was it a mistake? The case for acquiring Gardner is simple from the Colts’ perspective. They are getting a talented young corner under contract through 2030, a player they would never be able to land in free agency. Once starting corner Charvarius Ward returns from injury following a Week 11 bye, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can unleash Ward/Gardner against the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 12) and whoever the AFC serves up in the playoffs. That’s a potentially formidable combination at a position that has troubled the Colts in recent seasons. “Now, when you go against a Philly, you have a chance against A.J. Brown,” a defensive coach from another team said. When Gardner drove on the football and broke up a third-down pass from the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London in Germany on Sunday, Colts fans could see one of the reasons the team jumped at the chance to make the trade. Gardner came oh-so-close to picking off the pass, and as Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner observed on the NFL Network broadcast, there wasn’t much Penix could have done differently. Gardner simply won that rep, breaking on the ball from depth to make an athletic play. The trade sent a strong signal to the Colts’ locker room that management is doing all it can to contend right now. The move rewarded Quenton Nelson, Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Michael Pittman, Kenny Moore, Zaire Franklin, Braden Smith, Jonathan Taylor and everyone else who lived through some of the franchise’s darker days. Though the first-round picks would be nice to have, the Colts won’t be picking early enough to have their choice of quarterbacks, and even if they were, the Anthony Richardson experience remains a strong deterrent. Daniel Jones is probably a better option than any quarterback the Colts might find elsewhere. Indy has also shown an ability to find key contributors after the first round of the draft. That includes four-fifths of a very good starting offensive line and star running back Taylor, among others. “They were desperate for a corner, so I totally get it,” an exec from another team said. “The owner (Jim Irsay) died, they are going for it. Maybe they think they can move Anthony Richardson for something. That said, I’ve never been terribly impressed with Gardner. (Derek) Stingley was the corner from that draft we liked.” If Gardner were Stingley, the Jets probably would have held onto him. The Colts got the cornerback they could get. “I think the Jets made a mistake paying him (Gardner) and got out from under it,” an offensive coach said. My fear for Indy is that the team paid a premium price for a not-quite-premium player at a position where a single star makes less impact than in the past. Two decades ago, when the NFL’s base offense consisted of two backs with a blocking tight end and only two wide receivers, an elite cornerback could often take away half of the dangerous receiving options. “You could put that player against Randy Moss in 2000 and hope he has three catches for 60 yards and a touchdown,” the defensive coach said. “You can’t do that now because George Kittle or Travis Kelce will have a 150-yard day. There’s enough talent spread out across the five eligible receivers.” Now, teams align with three wide receivers on most downs. Their tight ends are more receivers than blockers. Halfbacks no longer wear oversized shoulder pads that signal their utility as sledgehammers. Offensive players have honed their receiving skills in seven-on-seven leagues. As a result, an elite corner playing in the modern NFL can take away a smaller fraction of the opponent’s pass game. There are other considerations as well. If Gardner is going to travel with the best receiver on the other team, the Colts will have a harder time disguising coverages in an era when disguise has become increasingly important for defenses. “If you travel them in zone, then everyone’s technique changes,” the defensive coach said. “If he has to play in the slot, then to not show the zone, other people go other places. The nickel has to play another position. Now it might bump two linebackers into other zone drops. You went maximum dollar expenditure, premier player, but do you want to give away man and zone pre-snap?” |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW ENGLANDTyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com doesn’t think it is a coincidence that the Patriots with WR STEFON DIGGS on the team are now better than the Bills who don’t have the services of Diggs. The hottest team in the NFL is the New England Patriots. Mike Vrabel’s team is currently riding a seven-game winning streak, with the latest victory coming on the road against the Buccaneers in Tampa. Within the winning effort, New England called upon its most influential offseason addition at two key moments of the contest. In the closing seconds of the first half, Vrabel made a rare decision with his team on the Bucs’ 1-yard line. He ran Drake Maye up the middle for no gain on purpose, burning the down to allow the clock to run, preventing Tampa Bay from regaining possession. It was a daring maneuver, and one that only makes sense if you can pay it off with a touchdown. After three rushing attempts that failed to reach pay dirt, egg was getting ready to be splattered on Vrabel’s face. That was until Stefon Diggs made a toe-tapping touchdown reception on fourth down to masterfully pull off clock manipulation. Fast forward to the final seconds of regulation, and the Patriots suddenly found their lead whittled down to five with the Buccaneers preparing for an onside kick. The attempt fluttered in the air for a moment, but was quickly brought into the arms of, you guessed it, Diggs, who took a massive hit but hung on to secure the victory. It’s those winning plays from Diggs that have been a regular occurrence throughout his first season with the Patriots, and are tipping the scales away from his former team in the AFC East in the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo suddenly finds itself losing ground in the division race, particularly after being upset by the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Now, Buffalo is two games behind the Patriots in the win column, and is currently losing the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to New England heading up to Orchard Park and beating the Bills back in Week 5. In that game, Diggs tallied 146 yards on 10 catches against his former squad. When you watch the Bills in 2025, they are a club that is missing that type of impact player, particularly at the wide receiver position. In Sunday’s loss to Miami, no pass catcher topped 60 yards receiving. On the year, the last and only 100-yard wide receiver for Buffalo was Keon Coleman in Week 1. Even though Diggs hasn’t played a down for Buffalo since the 2023 season, the Bills have yet to replace him within the offense, and it shows. To their credit, the Bills recognized this deficiency, reportedly trying to rectify it before last Tuesday’s trade deadline by inquiring on the likes of Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle. Ultimately, those pursuits didn’t bear fruit, and no addition at wide receiver was made. The hole left in Diggs’ absence looms large within the Bills offense, and now the wideout is actively contributing to them falling further in the standings against their top division rival. |
| NEW YORK JETSCoach Aaron Glenn thinks he has something going with making foes guess which of his two sub-optimal QBs in going to start. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has avoided naming a starting quarterback ahead of the team’s last two games and he plans to make it three in a row this week. Glenn ended his opening statement at Monday’s press conference by letting reporters know that they shouldn’t bother with questions about whether Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor will get the start against the Patriots on Thursday night. “Please don’t ask me anything about the quarterbacks,” Glenn said. “You know I’m not going to tell you and I don’t want to waste my time when it comes to that, when it comes to who’s starting.” Fields wound up starting each of the last two games and the Jets picked up their first two victories of the season. He was 6-of-11 for 54 yards in Sunday’s win over the Browns with 42 of the yards coming on a dump-off that running back Breece Hall broke for a touchdown. The Jets scored a pair of touchdowns on special teams and Glenn noted that it limited both the offensive plays and passing opportunities. Fields also threw his first interception of the season, but Glenn said Monday that he didn’t mind it because it came on a play when the quarterback “tried to get the ball downfield” to Garrett Wilson and that Browns safety Ronnie Hickman made a good play on the ball. Glenn said he saw other “good things” from Fields, but we’ll still have to wait for confirmation that he’ll remain in the lineup. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| STACKING UP THE CURRENT NFCMike Sando of The Athletic: There was a point Sunday afternoon when the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams led their opponents by a combined 56-0 margin. Both take 7-2 records into their Week 11 matchup in Los Angeles. With the Detroit Lions topping 500 yards for the second time this season in a 44-22 victory over Washington, and with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles visiting Green Bay on Monday night, the time is right to re-stack the NFC hierarchy. “I’m trusting Seattle and the Rams both over Philadelphia, just because I like the way the quarterbacks are playing,” an exec from another team said. 1. The Seahawks and Rams might be the best teams in the NFC. Let’s run through the top.The exec quoted above thinks the Rams and Seahawks can score and win in more ways than the Eagles can. He was highest on Green Bay entering the season but is having trouble trusting the Packers as much now, despite their 5-2-1 record. Tampa Bay’s defeat to New England gave the exec some pause on the Buccaneers, while the injury situation in San Francisco seems too much to overcome. As for Detroit, he thought the Lions, despite their dominance of the Commanders, lacked some of the creativity that stood out when Ben Johnson was coordinating the offense. Our top six NFC contenders appear below, ordered by their chances to reach the Super Bowl via The Athletic’s projection model as of Sunday night. Records and Super Bowl chances appear in parentheses. • Rams (7-2, 26.2 percent): The Rams are the only team in the league to rank among the top five in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. Their chances of reaching the Super Bowl have roughly tripled since preseason now that Matthew Stafford has proven the back issues that sidelined him during training camp are not a concern. “Stafford is playing as good as anybody at the position,” an opposing team exec said. Stafford has hit Rams-era career highs for EPA per pass play and air yards per attempt. There would seem to be a correlation between Stafford having more time to throw and feeling better about striking down the field. Puka Nacua’s dominance was well-established in Los Angeles, but newcomer Davante Adams, who suffered an oblique injury Sunday, is on pace for career highs in air yards per target (12.8) and reception (11.5). “Davante is the kind of guy that is in the right spot, so it’s easy for the quarterback to get used to him,” a defensive coach said. “It’s so different from DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh, who slows down and starts guessing if he’s in the read or not.” Stafford and coach Sean McVay have 73 total games together, and it shows. The Rams own the NFL’s lowest rate of pre-snap penalties, typical for a McVay offense. The team has scored at least 34 points in each of its past three games, handing the San Francisco 49ers’ defense its worst beating of the season Sunday as measured by EPA per play. The offense has leaned heavily into 13 personnel (three tight ends) in recent weeks, even after Nacua returned from injury. Might that keep Seattle out of its exotic sub packages in Week 11? The Rams are not perfect. Their kicking game has been atrocious, resulting in a league-worst minus-31.8 EPA differential on field goal tries. That could cost the Rams in a tight game against a strong opponent, including against Seattle, which ranks first in overall special teams EPA this season. • Eagles (6-2, 20.2 percent): All they do is win 71 percent of their games under Nick Sirianni, with two Super Bowl appearances and one Lombardi Trophy over his four-plus seasons as coach. They’ve beaten the Chiefs and Rams already this season. Philly needed reinforcements at the trade deadline and spent a third-round pick on pass rusher Jaelan Phillips. Guard Landon Dickerson and linebacker Nakobe Dean are back from injury. When the Eagles struggled on offense early in the season, some in the league predicted a repeat of the 2023 season, when Brian Johnson was one-and-done as the offensive coordinator between Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore. Philly has made major statistical gains on offense under first-time coordinator Kevin Patullo since then, although the offense remains a work in progress. “(Jared) Goff, when he is going and they are going downhill, is difficult to deal with, and of course, Stafford is that way too,” one exec said. “But I don’t feel that way about Jalen Hurts.” Philly has shifted heavily toward being under center over the past two games after successive defeats to the Broncos and Giants. The rushing output has never been lower through the first eight games of a season under Sirianni. Much could be learned against Green Bay on Monday night. • Seahawks (7-2, 16.1 percent): Seattle is the first team since 1980 and the fourth ever to exceed 30 first-half points three times in one season, per Pro Football Reference, and there are still eight games to play. The Seahawks have built first-half leads of 38-3 over the Saints, 31-7 over Washington and 35-0 over Arizona. Seattle’s overall point differential (+103) is a franchise best, by far, to this point in a season. “They have great personnel,” an opposing coach said. “There are little things with their roster that make a difference, like all the tight ends can play on (special) teams. Situationally, they are very sound. And then they attack the ball on defense.” Seattle has become a physical, hard-hitting team on defense in Mike Macdonald’s second season as coach and defensive play caller. Two fumble-forcing hits on Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett on Sunday were particularly violent, with both resulting in touchdown returns for DeMarcus Lawrence. On offense, Sam Darnold owns three of the NFL’s five best games this season for EPA per pass play. He is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, best in the league by a yard (Drake Maye, 8.9). He’s tied with Stafford and Maye for most completions on passes traveling longer than 20 yards downfield (17 each), while ranking first in completion rate on these throws by far (61 percent, with Hurts next at 52 percent). “Going into the year, you would not say this was going to be a top-five offense, but it is,” another opposing coach said. • Packers (5-2-1, 16.1 percent): How much should head-scratching defeats to Cleveland and Carolina shake our confidence in Green Bay? What about the Packers giving up 40 points to Dallas and hanging on for a tie? No team plays well every week, but Green Bay is the only team with more than one defeat this season when favored by at least seven. “They are difficult to get a read on,” an exec said. “They are a roller coaster. One day, Jeff Hafley has fixed everything on defense. Then they give up a bunch of points. They go deep better than anyone. Then they lose 16-13 to Carolina at home wearing 1923 helmets. The more I watch, the more I start to think some of these head coach/play callers need to focus more on the whole team.” It’s easy to forget Green Bay has a 5-2-1 record, with quarterback Jordan Love leading the league in EPA per pass play. “Top quarterback, but there are times he gets a little cold,” an opposing defensive play caller said. “(Matt) LaFleur and Kyle (Shanahan) are the best in terms of getting you out of the call you want to be in a high percentage of the time. Green Bay is coached well, he calls it well, they are designed well.” • Lions (6-3, 10.6 percent): Dan Campbell took over offensive play-calling duties from John Morton at the perfect time — right before facing a Washington defense that allowed 8.7 yards per play to Seattle last week. The Lions averaged 8.0 per play against the Commanders on Sunday. It was the sixth-highest total for any offense against any opponent in the NFL this season. The play caller for the No. 1 effort on that list was … Morton, naturally, against Chicago in Week 2. What does it all mean? “For them to get beat like they did by Minnesota last week, that is an alarm to me,” a former head coach said. “I just would be concerned about their inconsistencies. It is going to be interesting how they progress.” Campbell agreed enough to take over play-calling duties, which was never a consideration when Ben Johnson was calling the offense in recent seasons. “Dan’s got a lot of s— to do besides decide what the first third-and-3 call is,” a veteran coach said. A trip to Philadelphia awaits the Lions in Week 11. Campbell plans to continue calling plays, which he admitted will be challenging, given all his other game-day duties. But he has done it before, between demoting Anthony Lynn and naming Johnson to the role. “I think we can grow from here,” Campbell said. The Lions clearly would be better off with Johnson calling the plays. They had to know that coming into the season. But the team still derives its identity from the head coach. • Buccaneers (6-3, 6.4 percent): The Bucs rank 27th in offensive EPA per play over their past three games after ranking seventh through Week 6. Against New England on Sunday, Tampa Bay’s defense allowed four plays of 50-plus yards. No team has allowed more in 6,226 total team games since 2000, per TruMedia. Only the 2023 Broncos and 2015 Texans gave up that many in a game since then, both against the Dolphins. So, how are you feeling about the Bucs? “Baker Mayfield is a good two-minute quarterback, so they always have an ability to win it at the end,” an opposing coach said. That was true when Tampa Bay collected its first four victories of the season by a combined nine points. The Bucs have won comfortably against the 49ers and Saints since then, but losses to the Lions and Patriots raise questions heading into games against Buffalo and the Rams over the next two weeks. Injuries to key players on offense, from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to Bucky Irving and multiple offensive linemen, could keep Tampa Bay from contending as seriously. • 49ers (6-4, 2.8 percent): The 49ers don’t want to hear anything about the Buccaneers’ injury concerns. They’ve been without starting quarterback Brock Purdy, No. 1 receiver Brandon Aiyuk, top pass rusher Nick Bosa and All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner, among others. Their 42-26 defeat to the Rams was their most lopsided in the series since 39-10 and 48-32 losses to Los Angeles in 2018, when backups Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard were the 49ers’ starting quarterbacks. The 49ers have been better with Mac Jones subbing for Brock Purdy, but not Sunday. |
