| NFC NORTH |
| CHICAGOWere the Bears really worthy of all the preseason hype? Mike Sando of The Athletic: The questions flew toward Chicago Bears coach Matt Eberflus like poison-tipped arrows after the previously 2-7 New England Patriots embarrassed his team 19-3 at Soldier Field in Week 10. “How do you defend your work as head coach when it looks this bad?” one reporter asked. If that wasn’t pointed enough, try this one: “Ultimately, you are going to be held accountable to that, perhaps maybe even to the point of termination. Are you willing to be fired without ever exploring the possibility that the offense could be better with better game planning and play calling by changing the coordinator?” As angst rises in Chicago following what could be a fateful Bears defeat, the Pick Six column dives into the team’s predicament 1. Eberflus might need to change coordinators to buy time for himself, which is tough for a team already on its sixth offensive coordinator in the past 10 seasons. Caleb Williams’ selection by the Bears with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft brought into focus games against Washington and its rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, and New England with Drake Maye. The Bears enjoyed big advantages over those rebuilding teams because their general manager (Ryan Poles) and coach (Eberflus) had a two-year head start in building their roster. But they are 0-2 against the Commanders and Patriots, and they scored 18 total points in those two supposed showcase games. The Bears were fortunate Sunday they were facing the Patriots, who managed only four field goals and a 2-yard touchdown pass on a day when Chicago exceeded 21 yards on just one of 11 possessions. The Bears had 142 total yards, their eighth-lowest total in 405 regular-season and postseason games since 2000, per TruMedia. The score could have been much worse against a quality team. Chicago’s streak of 23 drives without a touchdown is their second-longest in a season since 2005 (the team went 24 drives without a TD in 2017 when then-rookie No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky was behind center). We are only a few months removed from a range of NFL analysts suggesting Williams might be walking into a better situation than any quarterback picked first overall had ever encountered. Now, we sift through the wreckage. • Coordinator dynamics: Shane Waldron is nine games into what the Bears hoped would be a prosperous long-term partnership with rookie No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. Would the Bears really make a change this early? “Their offense is so bad,” an exec from another team said. “Eberflus is already on the edge because of his answer on the Hail Mary (touchdown allowed against Washington). He is going to have to act on Waldron to take some of the heat off, or they could all be swept out.” “We’re looking at everything,” Eberflus said when asked about changing play callers. Waldron is the Bears’ sixth offensive coordinator in the past 10 seasons and the second since Eberflus arrived in 2022 (Eberflus’ first OC, Luke Getsy, lasted nine games in the role with Las Vegas this season before the Raiders fired him last week). The Seattle Seahawks ranked 13th in offensive EPA per play over Waldron’s 2021-23 tenure there, including No. 10 last season. The Bears rank 26th through Sunday, one spot behind the Denver Broncos with rookie first-round pick Bo Nix. The Bears are 4-5, a half-game worse than the Broncos with Nix. But Chicago has lost three consecutive games featuring the Hail Mary crisis at Washington, an exceedingly rare 53-yard touchdown run allowed right before halftime at Arizona and the 142-yard debacle Sunday. Eberflus’ record is now 14-29 (.326). With Williams taking 38 sacks — fifth-most through nine games for any quarterback within a single season since 1970, according to Pro Football Reference — culpability extends beyond coaching. • Poles’ line: Williams took nine sacks Sunday behind an offensive line missing both starting tackles and last-minute surprise injury scratch Nate Davis. The line has struggled even when healthy. “This is the best (line) depth I’ve ever had,” Poles told reporters in late August. “I actually let one of the guys go on cutdowns, and I was like, ‘Man, you did an excellent job. I wish we could keep you here.’ … Obviously, you want your starting five to be healthy and ready to go, but I feel more confident in the depth of our offensive line than I ever have before.” Williams’ tendency toward holding the football instead of getting the ball out quickly was a concern. It’s been a factor in some of the sacks. But his 3.12-second average time to throw or sack does not lead the league. It ranks eighth. Still, Williams’ 38 sacks are one more than fellow first-round rookies Daniels (20) and Nix (17) have taken in 20 combined starts, despite Nix holding the ball a tick longer than Williams on average (3.13 seconds). The Bears, like the Patriots, followed their selection of a quarterback early in the 2024 draft by targeting wide receivers with their next picks. Chicago selected Rome Odunze at No. 9. New England selected Ja’Lynn Polk at No. 37. Both teams circled back to select offensive linemen later. It was the reverse of the tack the Los Angeles Chargers took under their new coach, former Bears quarterback Jim Harbaugh, who selected tackle Joe Alt at No. 5 before taking receiver Ladd McConkey at No. 34. Alt was not available to the Bears or Patriots after they selected quarterbacks at No. 1 and No. 3, respectively. Chicago and New England would have had to target less-acclaimed linemen if they wanted to prioritize blocking for their quarterbacks in the draft. The symbolism was still notable with both teams’ lines struggling terribly. • Wait, this is a crisis? OK, so the Bears have a 4-5 record with a rookie quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, with an offensive line they thought would be better than evaluators from other teams expected it to be. Look around the NFC North. Jared Goff and Sam Darnold combined to toss eight interceptions Sunday. Jordan Love has thrown so many picks that his coach bristles at the mere mention of them during news conferences. Williams is just starting out, and his level of production is not so unusual. These Bears resemble the Jacksonville Jaguars, another team that embraced expectations that it would be good, without ever having been good. How shocked should anyone really be based on what could be verified? Probably not very shocked, but the presumption here is that Chicago expected to be much better. Which leads us to the touchy subject reporters hammered Eberflus about during his postgame news conference. • Organizational dynamics: The Bears’ decision to stick with Eberflus after they posted the NFL’s third-worst record (10-24) across his first two seasons reflected a desire to maintain continuity after Chicago won four of its final six games last season. The Eberflus-led defense ranked third in EPA per play across November and December, after acquiring end Montez Sweat. The decision was made to find a new offensive coordinator. Now, here we are. Execs around the league think a Bears structure featuring an empowered, engaged team president (Kevin Warren) all but rules out the possibility Chicago would seek established power coaches, even though such candidates would likely handle a market as tough as Chicago more comfortably than Eberflus has or the next hot coordinator might. “The GM won’t want to fire the coach unless the president is on board with that, and the president is not going to turn the reins over to a proven coach,” one exec predicted. “Their structure definitely defines how much oxygen is left in the room, and there is not a lot. You are not going to get a big fish.” That would point toward Chicago pursuing any number of the young offensive coordinators enjoying strong seasons. The Lions’ Ben Johnson or the Houston Texans’ Bobby Slowik were hot names entering this season. Tampa Bay’s Liam Coen, Atlanta’s Zac Robinson, Arizona’s Drew Petzing, Buffalo’s Joe Brady fit the mold as younger coordinators leading offenses currently ranked among the top 10 in EPA per play (Philadelphia’s offense ranks 11th under first-year coordinator Kellen Moore). It feels early to start walking down that road. “Half the league wants to be 4-5,” a coach from another team said. “What’s more interesting is the nosedive after the Hail Mary. Is this thing free-falling? Have they taken a cannonball blast and they just cannot stop the water? That is more interesting than, ‘OK, if they make a move, who would it be?’” A word of warning to any future Bears coaching candidates: This job might not be the best situation a new coach has ever walked into. |
| DETROITCharean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com on the Lions amazing path to 8-1 on Sunday night: The Lions should have lost. Despite five interceptions by Jared Goff, they didn’t. Detroit got a 52-yard game-winner from Jake Bates on the final play, delivering an improbable 26-23 victory. The Lions moved to 8-1, while the Texans fell to 6-4. In one of the more entertaining games of the season, the teams combined for seven interceptions. Four came in the third quarter with Goff and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud each throwing two. Goff threw only four interceptions in the first eight games. Kamari Lassiter had two picks and Jimmie Ward, Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair one each as Goff set a new career high for interceptions in a game. He completed 15 of 30 passes for 240 yards and two touchdowns. The Texans still lost despite the gifts. Houston led 23-7 at the half but didn’t score in the second half. Stroud had Tank Dell wide open for a 30-yard touchdown in the third quarter that might have put it away, but he threw it late, allowing Carlton Davis to get back to intercept it. It was Davis’ second interception of the night. Bates, who is from the Houston area and was in the Texans camp last year, made a 58-yarder with 5:01 left to tie the game at 23-23. Bates is 14-for-14 with two game-winners this season. The Texans had a chance to take the lead but didn’t. The Lions got away with defensive pass interference on a third-and-4 as Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold played through Xavier Hutchinson’s back before the ball arrived. The non-call left DeMeco Ryans with a decision: Punt, go for it or try a 58-yard field goal. Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn, who was 10-of-12 from 50-plus yards this season with a long of 59, was wide left on the attempt to go ahead with 1:51 left. The Lions went only 18 yards, using up the rest of the time before Bates’ game-winner. Stroud was 19-of-33 for 232 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. John Metchie caught five passes for 74 yards and a touchdown, and Joe Mixon rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. For the Lions, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 71 yards on 19 carries and David Montgomery had 12 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown. Sam LaPorta caught three passes for 66 yards and a touchdown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. Goff is only the third quarterback since 1991 to throw five interceptions in a game and win. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in 2012 and Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo in 2007 also accomplished the feat. Goff was the 40th QB since 1991 to throw EXACTLY 5 interceptions in a game (so others threw more). So, QBs with 5 INTs are now 3-37. The Lions had 14 drives Sunday night, which is a lot: 1 Interception2 Punt3 Touchdown4 Interception5 Punt6 Punt7 Interception8 Interception9 Touchdown10 Interception11 Punt12 Touchdown13 Field Goal14 Field Goal |
| MINNESOTAQB SAM DARNOLD has faded from MVP consideration, but he does not have to worry about his starting job despite throwing three to the Jaguars on Sunday. Eric Edholm of NFL.com: The Minnesota Vikings are casting their lot with quarterback Sam Darnold. Darnold’s three interceptions — and a fourth negated by penalty — were cause for concern on Sunday, and even though the Vikings significantly outgained the Jaguars, they had to hang on for a 12-7 victory in Jacksonville. With the Vikings moving to 7-2, head coach Kevin O’Connell doesn’t see a need for a potential quarterback change. “We’re still 100% confident in Sam,” O’Connell said, via ESPN. “It would be craziness not to be.” Darnold finished the game 24-of-38 passing for 241 yards, zero TDs and the three picks. He also rushed seven times for 28 yards. All three of his picks on Sunday came when targeting star wide receiver Justin Jefferson. The first one went off Jefferson’s hands, but Darnold’s next two appeared to be poorly placed. “Whenever you turn the ball over, you have to have a next-play mentality,” Darnold said, per ESPN. “Being able to understand what happened and just moving on. It’s as simple as that. “When those things do happen … I have full faith our defense is going to go out there and get a stop, and we’ll get the ball right back and go down and score.” |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASA tweet from Jay Kolar: @derinyarTrey Lance will probably be bad also but at least he might be interesting while being bad |
| NEW YORK GIANTSVeteran scribe Paul Schwartz of the New York Post says QB DANIEL JONES’ time at the helm of the Giants surely has come to an end. It is never, or rarely, the fault of one player, but it is time. It is not all on Daniel Jones. Of course it is not. It was on the run defense, or lack thereof. It was on Tyrone Tracy, a rookie running back, who kept the Giants in the game and then took them out of it with a devastating fumble in overtime. It was on head coach Brian Daboll for calling a gadget play instead of a quarterback sneak for a first down. It was on Graham Gano, the veteran kicker, who missed a mid-range field goal in what turned out to be a tight one. So many of them are complicit for transgressions big and small that conspired to doom a doomed team, once again. There are fingerprints galore smeared across the 20-17 loss to the Panthers, and that this game came in Germany, and not on U.S. soil, does not mitigate the damage done to a franchise that has specialized for more than a decade in losing games every which way, here, there, everywhere and, in a new twist, even in the capital of Bavaria. Now that we are done sprinkling blame around, it is time to get to the point, which is the lack of them. Points, that is. Jones did far more to lose this game than to win it, and that has been his calling card for six years now. It is not all on him, but it is time. The Giants are in their bye week. When they return to the field Nov. 24 to face the Buccaneers at MetLife Stadium, Jones has to be on the sideline and either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito needs to be the starting quarterback. This is not about giving some young first-round pick the keys to the offense. The Giants don’t have any of them waiting in the wings. This is not about saving the season, as the Giants are 2-8 and the only saving that can be done is if players want to stash some cash for a vacation that could commence immediately after the season, as this organization is headed toward missing the playoffs for the 10th time in the past 12 years and for the second straight season since Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen came aboard in 2022. There are no illusions what Lock, a six-year veteran in his first season as the Giants backup, or DeVito, the second-year Jersey guy who surprised everyone by going 3-3 in 2023 as an undrafted rookie, will provide or add to an attack that through 10 games is averaging an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. This is not about “it can’t be worse,’’ because it can always be worse. This is about the end of the madness of doing the same thing every week and expecting different results. Jones, 27, is in his sixth year and he is what he is. We know, for sure now, that he will not be with the team in 2025, and that his four-year, $160 million contract will end two years shy of expiration, with the Giants needing to eat $22.1 million in dead salary cap money to part ways with him. There is also that injury guarantee of $23 million in 2025 that makes keeping him on the field a risk no longer worth taking. Perhaps the last seven games can clue us in if Lock, who is making $5 million, can serve as a bridge quarterback next season for whichever youngster the Giants try to target and select in April’s NFL draft. Maybe DeVito gets a hot hand and he can find a place on the roster alongside a bigger prospect. Jones was 1-for-6 passing to start this game and at halftime he was 6-for-14 for 54 yards and one interception, on a tipped pass by Jadeveon Clowney. That meant the Giants trailed 10-0 at the break — zero points against a defense that came in allowing a league-worst 32.6 points a game. Daboll said he did not consider making a quarterback switch for the second half. “No,’’ he said. “I thought we could get something going, which we did. Started out slow, had some opportunities there, but did not.’’ Jones ran for a touchdown in the fourth quarter and the Giants were in business, trailing 17-14, when, on the very next play, they forced a turnover. The Giants were on the Panthers 8-yard line and looking to take their first lead of the game when Jones, under pressure, tried to fit a 1-yard pass to Tracy but the ball was yanked out of Tracy’s grasp by linebacker Josey Jewell for another interception. “I mean, not good enough,’’ Jones said. “Anytime you turn the ball over twice in the red zone, yeah, not good enough.’’ Daboll would not bite on a question about making a change at quarterback or making significant changes, period. That was not the time, after yet another emotional and close loss. The time is upon us, though, to finally end this chapter. |
| PHILADELPHIASome impressive numbers for QB JALEN HURTS. Dante Koplowitz-Fleming at NFL.com: Hurts and the Eagles demolished the short-handed Cowboys, 34-6, in Dallas. Hurts had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns against the Cowboys, his 15th career game with multiple rushing touchdowns (five more than any other quarterback has in their career). Hurts has at least one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown and a passer rating of 100-plus in each of his last four games, making him the first quarterback in NFL history with such a streak. This is the fourth consecutive season in Hurts’ career that he’s had at least 10 rushing touchdowns, making him the 10th player in NFL history (and only quarterback) to score double-digit touchdowns on the ground in four consecutive seasons. Hurts also joined Cam Newton and Josh Allen as the only players in NFL history with at least 75 passing touchdowns and 50 rushing touchdowns. |
| WASHINGTONMike Sando of The Athletic wonders about the sustaining power of the Commanders: 3. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 28-27 victory over the Commanders seemed affirming for both teams, but it’s worth raising some questions about staying power for Washington. • Commanders outlook: After the Ravens handed the Commanders a 30-23 defeat in Week 6, a coach from another team suggested Baltimore had played Washington rookie sensation Jayden Daniels in a physical manner that other teams might replicate. Daniels suffered injured ribs against Carolina the next week. Washington has changed its usage patterns with Daniels, whose production has fallen off, but the Commanders still almost beat a tough Steelers team Sunday. Daniels rushed 52 times for 306 yards and four touchdowns in Washington’s first five games this season. He has 25 carries for 166 yards and no touchdowns since then, a streak that began against Baltimore. It’s going to be an interesting dance for Washington down the stretch as the Commanders try to keep Daniels healthy while still maximizing his dual-threat abilities. “We will see if it is sustainable over multiple years,” the coach said. The Commanders, 7-2 at the trade deadline and 7-3 after Sunday, acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore from New Orleans after proving their ceiling was higher this season than anticipated. But with Daniels rushing only three times for 5 yards against the Steelers, Washington managed only 242 yards, including 60 on the ground (starting running back Brian Robinson was out injured). Is this just a temporary step backward while Daniels gets healthy, or will it be part of a broader late-season trend? Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals averaged 25.0 offensive points per game in games 1-8, but only 20.9 thereafter, partly because of quarterback attrition. |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAShouldn’t QB KYLER MURRAY be in the MVP discussion? Here’s his coach Jonathan Gannon per Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com: There was a moment in the second quarter of Sunday’s game against the Jets when it looked like things might not work out for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. Jets linebacker Quincy Williams was unblocked off Murray’s blindside and he crushed Murray with a hit that sent his helmet flying. Murray lost the ball as well, but fell on top of it to ensure the Jets wouldn’t take possession and then flashed a smile before continuing his evisceration of the AFC East team. Murray hit Marvin Harrison Jr. for a touchdown a couple of plays later and ended the 31-6 win with 17 straight completions to set a franchise record. He also ran for two touchdowns and became the first player in NFL history to complete at least 85 percent of his passes for at least 250 yards while also running for two touchdowns. It was the kind of performance that made it easy for head coach Jonathan Gannon to engage in hyperbole. “I think you saw the stat line,” Gannon said, via the team’s website. “The quarterback was the best player on the planet today.” The Cardinals have gone two weeks without allowing a touchdown while the offense hums along well enough to have them in possession of first place in the NFC West heading into their bye week. That’s a good place to be midway through the season and the team’s continued progress gives reason to think that even better things can happen in their final seven games of the year. |
| SAN FRANCISCOPK JAKE MOODY salvaged something out of a rough afternoon on Sunday. Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com: Jake Moody endured a rough afternoon for much of Sunday’s Week 10 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only did the San Francisco 49ers kicker miss three straight field goals in his anticipated return from injury, but he also took a jab to the helmet from frustrated teammate Deebo Samuel. Not long after, Moody redeemed himself with a walk-off 44-yard field goal to beat the Bucs, 23-20. A 2023 third-round draft pick, Moody had been 13 of 14 on field goal tries coming into Sunday’s game, though he also hadn’t played since suffering a right ankle injury in Week 5. After missing a third consecutive field goal against the Buccaneers with San Francisco up 20-17, the second-year special teamer was confronted by Samuel, who then took a swipe at intervening long snapper Taybor Pepper. Samuel’s hand then hit Moody, who also endured a multi-miss game in his rookie season, during which he finished 21 of 25 (84%) on field goal attempts. All was well by the close of Sunday’s game, however, with San Francisco advancing to 5-4 on the season. “Normally I don’t even get like that,” Samuel told reporters. “[I was] just frustrated in the heat of battle. It was a really close game, and I kind of got out of character a little bit. … We’ll get past it.” Moody echoed the remarks. “It’s an emotional game,” the kicker said. “Stuff like that happens all the time. You’ve just got to move past it. We won, so that’s all that matters.” Moody’s winning kick wasn’t exactly right down the middle, just sliding inside the right upright. |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYThe Chiefs go to 9-0 with their 4th win at the buzzer – if you can have a defensive/special teams walkoff, this was it. Adam Teicher of ESPN.com: Patrick Mahomes wasn’t optimistic the Kansas City Chiefs would block the field goal attempt with one second remaining that would have given the Denver Broncos a victory on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. But Mahomes was comforted by one fact: The Chiefs this season had won three different games on the last play, so he didn’t close his mind to the possibility. “If anyone’s going to do it, this team’s going to have a designed rush or designed way to get a hand on it,” Mahomes said. “You’re obviously worried. It’s out of your control, but at the same time, I’ve trusted my teammates that they’re going to go out there and make a play.” Sure enough, linebacker Leo Chenal got a hand on Wil Lutz’s 35-yard try, blocking it to give the Chiefs a 16-14 win and preserve their undefeated season. The Chiefs will take their 9-0 record to Buffalo for a game against the Bills on Nov. 17. The Chiefs weren’t surprised it was Chenal who came up with the big play. He blocked a point-after-touchdown try in Super Bowl LVIII, a game the Chiefs went on to win in overtime. In some ways, Chenal said, Sunday’s block was bigger with the result of the game depending on it. “The moment is heavy,” he said. “You feel the weight of the moment.”He said the Chiefs crashed the middle of Denver’s line thinking the Broncos would give a lot of attention to teammate Justin Reid, who was rushing from the edge. Chenal was one of a gang of Chiefs who broke through up the middle to get a hand on the ball. “A lot of times they’ll go out there and leave openings down the middle,” Chenal said. “We’ve been talking about it for awhile and we did it in a big moment.” Andy Reid, in his 26th season as an NFL head coach, said he has never won a game with a blocked kick on the final play. “We work on that block like crazy but it doesn’t normally work like that,” Reid said. Chenal, the Chiefs’ third-round draft pick in 2022, has filled a variety of roles in Kansas City. In addition to playing linebacker, he’s lined up as a defensive lineman and as a blocker on offense. Mahomes said Chenal is one of the strongest players on the Chiefs. “You don’t want to be that guy when he’s working out,” Mahomes said. “We call him John Cena.” Chenal’s blocked kick didn’t hide the fact that the Broncos for much of the game outplayed the Chiefs. Denver scored a touchdown early in the second quarter to take a 7-0 lead and held an advantage until Harrison Butker’s third field goal of the game put the Chiefs ahead 16-14 with six minutes left. “We outplayed them,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said. Mahomes didn’t disagree. The Chiefs played two similar, low-scoring games against the Broncos last season in which they scored a total of one touchdown and 28 points. “They play extremely hard,” Mahomes said. “They’re well coached. They do a good job of mixing coverages and then they make you execute throughout the entire field. “There are chances, but if you don’t hit those, the drives stall out. They continue to play hard and so you’ve got to execute on those chances in order to beat a good football team. We didn’t do that today and we got lucky and found a way to get the win in the end anyway.” The Chiefs also had walk-off wins this season against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. Mahomes said the Chiefs would rather win all of their games in a more comfortable manner, but they’ll gladly endure the extra drama to get the W. “You live for these moments,” he said. “When you grow up playing football, you live for the walk-off, whatever it is.” The Chiefs may be 9-0, but their +68 point differential is 9th in the NFL. Seven of the nine wins are one-score wins. Their biggest margin of the season is +13. |
| LOS ANGELES CHARGERSIn retrospect, it seems pretty obvious that the Chargers were a prime turnaround candidate for 2024. A – In 2023, they had poor coachingB – They do have a healthy franchise-level quarterbackC – In 2024, they acquired a proven winning coach Judy Bautista of NFL.com was with Jim Harbaugh for win #6 on Sunday: To get an idea why the Los Angeles Chargers just won their sixth game of the season, one year after winning only five in all, it helps to watch Jim Harbaugh on a game day. Less than an hour before kickoff, wearing a pair of bright blue gloves, he is a glorified ball boy, stationing himself around the field – in the flat, near the sideline, right next to the quarterback, to feed the football to Justin Herbert during his warmup, a somewhat manic grin on Harbaugh’s face. During the game, while officials were reviewing a play that at first looked like a Herbert fumble on a sack, Harbaugh stands next to the official, helpfully pantomiming Herbert’s sidearm motion, the better to demonstrate to officials what he wanted them to see: that while the defender was dragging Herbert down, he was able to propel his arm forward for an incomplete pass, not a fumble. And after the game, in the victorious locker room following the 27-17 win over the Tennessee Titans, Harbaugh’s playlist featured soft rock staples like Cat’s in the Cradle and Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. For the latter, Harbaugh noted that it was the 50th anniversary of the wreck in Lake Superior and, yes, there also was a message for the team that was just for them to know. In between was a game that featured exactly what Harbaugh — quirkiness aside — has brought to the Chargers. An emphasis on toughness — the running game had 145 yards, the defense was smothering, the offensive line opened gaping holes and protected Herbert — and energy. Herbert ran for a touchdown and threw for another. Harbaugh announced that he would call him “Beast Herbert” from now on, and he ruminated that nobody else on the planet would have had the strength to hold on to the ball while being sacked and still throw sidearm to make it an incomplete pass. There was a diversion about Herbert carrying bricks around to improve grip strength. At halftime, Harbaugh told FOX’s sideline reporter that he wanted to see the blood pumping and he later said it wasn’t because he was worried that the Chargers’ energy was flagging. Rather, he wanted to celebrate what he was seeing. Harbaugh won’t say it, but it is obvious: The Chargers have assumed Harbaugh’s personality, and it has them squarely in the AFC playoff race. “My red blood was pumping,” Harbaugh said later, his eyes widening, his arms waving. “I was excited. Let’s all be excited. I thought we had a ton of momentum and umph, I didn’t want that halftime to slow us in any way. Let’s go! Let’s go! What I was seeing on the field … just excitement.” Harbaugh is a compelling collection of oddities, yes, but he is also undeniably an outstanding coach, who has had success at every stop of his coaching career, in college and in the NFL. His specialty is turnarounds — quick ones and the Chargers are his latest project. In San Francisco, the 49ers were 6-10 in 2010. In 2011, Harbaugh’s first season as the head coach, they were 13-3, won the NFC West and went to the NFC Championship Game, the first of three straight appearances in that game. The next season, they went to the Super Bowl. By 2014, he had worn out his welcome and was gone following an 8-8 season. Still, in each of his four seasons, he presided over a top five defense and a top 10 rushing offense. The Chargers have long had a talented roster replete with big names and few sterling results to show for it. Many of the names here are familiar: Herbert, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Khalil Mack, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins. The results do not look anything like what the Chargers have had recently. They entered Week 10 allowing just 12.6 points per game. In the last two weeks, they have had 13 sacks. The running game, a staple of every Harbaugh offense, came alive against the Titans. Harbaugh deflects all credit for the Chargers’ turnaround, instead rhapsodizing about everyone from owner Dean Spanos on down. “This is what we want to do, this is how we want to be,” Harbaugh said. “Let’s keep doing it.” He reserves his greatest and most plentiful praise for Herbert, freely admitting he is in awe of him, labeling him the Chargers’ Guardian of Victory. He said to be around Herbert is to feel like you are around greatness. He recently said that Herbert is the toughest quarterback in the history of the NFL, a title he used to reserve for himself. But in his postgame remarks, Harbaugh name-checked practically every player who stepped foot on the field as part of his celebration of a complete team performance. Herbert is in his fifth season and as his health has improved in recent weeks, so, too, have his performances and the Chargers’ reliance on him. He juked more than one defender while rushing for 32 yards Sunday, and he used his legs to avoid sacks. For all of his individual brilliance, Herbert has played in just one playoff game in his career, a loss. Part of that is that the Chargers exist in the same division with the Kansas City Chiefs. But part of it was the Chargers’ own underperformance. Harbaugh appears to have adjusted that. “He’s the best,” Herbert said. “To have a guy like that leading the team, it shows up. You turn on the tape and everybody wants to play for him, wants to fight for him. Guys are playing energetic. He’s done such a great job preparing us, letting us play free and fast. “He makes meetings, he makes weightlifting, practicing tons of fun,” Herbert continued. “Not always. I didn’t mean he makes it super fun. Guys enjoy practice, enjoy going out there and working. That’s the most important thing.” The Chargers remain a work in progress. They entered Week 10 with the highest three-and-out rate in the league at 45.1 percent. In the first half, they moved the ball but stalled twice in the red zone, settling for field goals, before finally scoring a touchdown on Herbert’s 4-yard run. In the second half, the red blood was pumping and the Chargers scored touchdowns on their first two drives to pull away. That is the kind of resilience that had sometimes been lacking in Chargers teams of the past. The Bolts have excelled in recent weeks in the second half. Toughness can be practiced, and in the Chargers, that muscle was developed in just one offseason. Herbert pointed to OTAs with what Harbaugh calls fourth-quarter finishers. After practice, after two hours on the field, the team does more drills. They pull sleds, do more drills, to create toughness and the belief that the job is not done. It allows them to know they are tough enough to play four quarters. “I just try to make right by him,” Herbert said. “I just want to make him proud. As long as we’re listening and doing things he says, we’re going in the right direction.” They will need all of that toughness with the stretch of games to come. The Chargers tied their season high in points scored Sunday, and they have still not allowed more than 20 points to any opponent this season. But it is hard not to notice that their six wins have come against struggling or up-and-coming teams. Their losses have been to the likes of the Steelers and Chiefs. That makes the next few weeks the real litmus test for how far Harbaugh’s reclamation project has progressed. The Chargers’ next three AFC opponents are the Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs, all fighting for playoff spots and positions. On Sunday afternoon, Harbaugh calibrated exactly how long it would be before he started thinking about that. His players pour so much into each game that he wants them to enjoy it. “For me, the next six hours, those are going to be good enjoyment,” Harbaugh said. “Somewhere around the 6:30 mark, it will hit me that the Cincinnati Bengals are up next. Then we’ll reset our battle rhythm.” |
| AFC NORTH |
| BALTIMOREDan Graziano gives the MVP Award to QB LAMAR JACKSON. Lamar Jackson is about to win his third MVP awardWeek 10 opened with a Thursday night barnburner between the Bengals and Ravens, and for the second time this season, Baltimore squeaked out a narrow victory over its division rival. Jackson was 25-for-33 for 290 yards and four touchdown passes, and he added 33 rushing yards for good measure. It was his fourth game in a row — and fifth overall this season — with a QBR over 80. (His 77.6 Total QBR leads the NFL.) In eight games since the Ravens’ long-forgotten 0-2 start, Jackson has 22 touchdown passes and one interception. Baltimore is now 7-3 and locked in a race with the Steelers for the AFC North title behind the play of its quarterback. Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION There’s a strong case to be made that Jackson is playing even better than he did last season — when he won his second MVP award. He has already thrown 24 touchdown passes, which matches his total from all of 2023 and puts him on pace to smash his career high of 36 set in 2019 — when he won his first MVP award. Jackson is a man on a mission to deliver a Super Bowl title to Baltimore, after losing the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs at home as the top seed last season. So MVP might not be a big priority for him right now. But history has shown us that in seasons when Jackson stays healthy, the Ravens are really good and he has a good shot to win the award. There’s no player in the league more clearly central to what his team does than Jackson, and right now he’s at the peak of his powers. If he continues to play like this, the only reason he won’t win MVP is because voters decided it was someone else’s turn |
| PITTSBURGHMike Sando of The Athletic with thoughts on the Steelers and QB RUSSELL WILSON: Steelers outlook: This was a great victory for Pittsburgh and especially for quarterback Russell Wilson. If Wilson wasn’t quite as good as perceived in his first two starts, both Steelers victories, he seemed to play better than his stat line for most of this game against the Commanders. His winning 32-yard touchdown pass to the newly acquired Mike Williams put a punctuation mark on what could otherwise be undersold as a 14-of-28 passing day. His lone interception was on a third-and-14 deep ball that approximated a punt and cost Pittsburgh only 0.4 EPA, making this Wilson’s least consequential pick since 2018. Wilson has finished with at least 0.14 EPA per pass play in all three starts for the Steelers. That ties the third-longest streak of Wilson’s career within a single season. He had a seven-game streak in 2015, a six-game streak in 2012 and a five-game streak in 2013. His last three-game streak was back in 2018. Former Steelers starter Justin Fields has never had more than two such games consecutively during his career, and he had just one such game for Pittsburgh (against the Chargers in Week 3). The Steelers, with a defense ranked sixth in EPA per play, will win many games if they play as efficiently in the passing game as they have since Wilson took over. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW YORK JETSCharles Robinson of YahooSports.com looks at the Jets and QB AARON RODGERS after Sunday’s crash-and-burn in Arizona: There is no shortage of ways we could approach what has happened to Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. We could take the micro viewpoint, and tell you the litany of failures that led to Sunday’s 31-6 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, arguably the ugliest defeat of Rodgers’ era with the Jets. Or we could go the macro route, and recite the bleak and still-bottoming playoff percentages of this 3-7 team. We could even pull further back and go to the history books, and note how much this all feels a little like Brett Favre’s underwhelming single-season foray as the Jets’ starting quarterback in 2008 … except this season is exponentially worse and going off a cliff far more quickly. This is a failed season, with an objectively bad team that was all leveraged against a soon-to-be 41-year-old quarterback who has sunken into the mediocre middle at his position. Once we recognize that, it opens the door to the legacy question that will hang over Rodgers for the remainder of this lost season. It’s an important question, given that this failure is threatening to form an impression that will be lasting. Maybe not in the disturbing neighborhood of Joe Namath fizzling out with the Los Angeles Rams or Johnny Unitas dropping the curtain with the San Diego Chargers. But also not anywhere near the respectably remembered 29 games (including four playoff games) that Joe Montana spent closing his career in a Kansas City Chiefs uniform. If anything, Rodgers’ end is shaping up like Donovan McNabb going out with a wheeze with Washington and Minnesota. It’s stunning to grapple with that kind of framing for Rodgers. But that’s where we are. You could see it during his postgame news conference Sunday, another one of the editions where he came off as a quiet and defeated passenger, trapped on a journey that no longer has a map. Reaching for nebulous explanations like “energy” rather than talent or tactics in describing what has gone wrong. “It’s been a lot of emotions this year, for sure,” Rodgers said Sunday. “I thought after a big win [against the Houston Texans on] Thursday night, nice long week, we were gonna come out with a lot of energy and fun in the game. We didn’t come out with great energy on either side of the ball. And offensively, you’re not going to beat anybody scoring six points.” It’s the second time this season that Rodgers has pointed to energy in the face of a throttling. The last time, he described the Jets as “flat” after absorbing a 37-15 beating at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers nearly three weeks ago. The week after that one, the talent-barren New England Patriots were supposed to present a “get right” game for the Jets. The Jets lost that one 25-22, in what was, at the time, the most embarrassing loss of Rodgers’ starts. Until this week, when a Cardinals team that is very much in the midst of finding its own footing held the Jets to a pair of field goals and rolled up 406 yards of total offense against a defense that we once thought could be a top-five unit in the league. Fired head coach Robert Saleh had no part in that. Nor did demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Wideout Mike Williams? He’s in Pittsburgh, catching his first touchdown of the season from Russell Wilson on Sunday for the winning score. Meanwhile, recently acquired receiver Davante Adams caught six balls for 31 yards and Rodgers completed only one pass that traveled more than 10 air yards. He also continued his string of games without a 300-yard passing performance, which is now at 33 and counting. All concerning numbers, but none more troubling than the $49 million in dead salary-cap space for Rodgers in 2025. All of this brings us back to the original question of what is left for him. Well, there are two avenues that appear to be in play right now. The first is that Rodgers will play out the 2024 season, salvaging whatever he can down the stretch, then returning in 2025 for one last attempt at putting a respectable bookend on his career. One league source familiar with the Adams trade told Yahoo Sports last week that the wideout agreed to be traded to the Jets with the condition that Rodgers would stick around through 2025. Of course, that was before the last few weeks of futility, which raise a question of whether the Jets want either player on the roster next season, particularly with a new head coach in play and general manager Joe Douglas having his contract run out at the end of the season. For Rodgers and Adams to be back, there would need to be some serious clarification of who is at the controls in 2025. And that might have been muddied by the presidential election, with multiple sources inside the Jets expecting that team owner Woody Johnson will again be taking some kind of post in Donald Trump’s future plans. That’s a lot of unknowns hanging in the balance. The second avenue: This is it. That we’re in the midst of Rodgers’ last year with the Jets — either by virtue of him choosing retirement, or by ownership riding out mediocrity the rest of the season and then deciding to make sweeping changes at head coach, general manager, quarterback and beyond. In that scenario, multiple veterans would be expected to go out the door, including Rodgers, Adams, Allen Lazard and others. It’s an overhaul that would deem the Rodgers experiment a tremendous failure with a years-long autopsy to really understand what exactly went wrong. For now, neither avenue is absolutely certain. After all, there’s another one of those “get right” games next week, against an Indianapolis Colts team that is reeling with its own problems across the roster. “We just gotta focus on what’s in front of us and beat the Colts, then get to the bye and sort some things out,” Rodgers said Sunday. “We’ve got a couple West Coast opponents coming out for one-o’clock games. And we’ve got one, two, three division games. A lot still in front of us.” A lot still in front, and so much left behind. And nothing but question and disappointment in between. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| HOT SEATBill Barnwell of ESPN.com with a deep dive into four coaches he says are on even hotter seats after losses on Sunday: Seats around the NFL are always hot, and two head coaches already have been fired during the season. While there might be three or four truly untouchable coaches across the league, just about every other opportunity is one losing streak or change of heart away from disappearing. I don’t like to root for anybody to get fired, but Sunday was a day in which the warmest seats in football had their temperatures rise even higher. Let’s break down those four performances, what went wrong and how they apply to each team’s seasonlong issues. I’m not going to give a recommendation on whether these coaches should or should not be fired, but now’s probably the time to start talking about whether these openings will become available between now and February. I’ll start in Chicago, where the grand opening of the Caleb Williams era a couple of months ago appears to have quickly led to a grand closing for Bears fans. What has gone wrong for the rookie No. 1 overall pick and his team? Chicago Bears (4-5)Week 10 result: Lost 19-3 to the PatriotsThe coach: Matt Eberflus Something is officially wrong in Chicago. The grumbling about Eberflus and the Bears after the dramatic Hail Mary loss to the Commanders last month felt like misplaced anger toward cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who had chosen to go rogue at the worst possible time. (If Eberflus told Stevenson it was fine to spend the first few seconds of a play jawing with fans, I’m happy to issue a correction.) When the Bears struggled Nov. 3 in their 29-9 loss to the Cardinals, the concerns felt like leftover frustration from the Washington game. Now, though, it’s becoming clear this isn’t the hangover from one bad moment. The Bears began a three-game homestand Sunday by being roundly outplayed by the Patriots, who held them to one field goal in a 19-3 defeat. The Bears failed to score a touchdown for the second straight game and went 1-for-14 on third down. A New England defense that had just eight sacks across its prior six games combined to bring down Williams nine times. Bears fans are used to disappointing quarterbacks not getting the help they need, but this season was supposed to be different. Williams was a consensus No. 1 pick after two excellent seasons at USC. General manager Ryan Poles had surrounded him with what many called the best situation for a rookie quarterback in league history, with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift added to play alongside Cole Kmet and DJ Moore. When the Bears won three straight while scoring 95 points before their mid-October bye, it felt like Williams & Co. were in the process of breaking out. Instead, just about everything is going wrong. Some of the names not included in that list are big problems for the Bears. One is offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who doesn’t appear to be giving Williams the answers he needs. As an example, the Bears have essentially abandoned play-action over this three-game losing streak. Williams used play fakes on 19.5% of his dropbacks during their winning stretch, which ranked 19th in the league. Since the bye, that has dropped to 14.5%, which ranks last. Some of that might be game situation, but research suggests play-action is still effective, even if offenses haven’t gotten out to a lead and established the run. Williams had two play-action pass attempts Sunday. The offense doesn’t look put together with any sort of steady vision or scope. Ideally, timing of the routes and progression would be in sync with the footwork of the quarterback, so there would be a natural rhythm to where and when Williams is throwing the ball. Coordinators wouldn’t want to tie a creative quarterback to getting the ball out the moment he hits the end of his dropback, but it’s not the worst thing in the world if he gives the quarterback answers as he gets there. That just isn’t the case in Chicago. I saw plays Sunday in which Williams hit the end of his drop and there wasn’t anybody out of their break in position to look for the ball. The first two sacks came on plays where Williams was waiting in the pocket and nobody was even close to coming open. That leads to a lot of Williams holding the ball and either waiting in the pocket or aimlessly scrambling until someone gets open. As New England defender Brenden Schooler noted, the Patriots found that Williams had already held the ball for six seconds or longer on 34 plays, which might qualify as a career’s worth for some veterans. It’s fine for passers to hold the ball forever when they’re Patrick Mahomes or peak Russell Wilson, but when Williams holds the ball for even four seconds or more, he ranks 28th in QBR. All that scrambling makes it more difficult for a QB to reset his feet and deliver an accurate pass, an issue that has plagued Williams. He has thrown more than 23% of his passes off-target. The only other quarterback above 19% is Bryce Young. Some of that is pressure, but he also is throwing a league-worst 19.1% of his passes off-target without pressure. Quarterbacks such as Josh Allen can destroy teams by extending plays and creating big completions out of structure. Williams did that at USC, so it’s an element of his game everyone was hoping would translate to the pros. So far, it hasn’t. When he has been outside the pocket, his 9.2 QBR ranks 30th. Only four other quarterbacks have thrown from outside the pocket more often, so this is a significant subset of his plays that are resulting in brutally bad efficiency. There haven’t been big plays on offense in general. Just 4.2% of Chicago’s offensive snaps produce a gain of 20 or more yards, the fifth-worst rate in the league. The Bears didn’t seem to try to hit anything downfield on the Patriots. Williams had just one pass travel more than 15 yards downfield all game. When that is combined with an offense that converts third downs at the lowest rate of any team, I’m not sure how it’s possible to build an offense that gets results: In the pocket, things are going only marginally better. The offensive line has probably taken too much of the blame for Williams’ struggles, but it would be tough to say it’s playing well. The Patriots were able to repeatedly pressure Williams with twists and stunts, and the Bears were slow to react and adjust in protection when coach Jerod Mayo brought unexpected pressure from the second level. Schooler, the Pats’ ace special-teamer, played his first defensive snaps of the season as a spy and came up with a sack and a pressure on five plays. Injuries have hurt the Bears. Ten offensive linemen have already played at least 50 offensive snaps. As they got one expected starter back from injured reserve this week in Ryan Bates, they lost another when Teven Jenkins went down. They had to play backups Larry Borom and Matt Pryor at tackle. With all that being said, the only linemen who allowed more than one quick pressure during Sunday’s game was Jenkins’ replacement, Doug Kramer, who allowed four in 29 opportunities after filling in at guard. The other problem, scarily enough for Bears fans, is that the receivers haven’t been as good as advertised. As recently as last season, Allen ranked in the top 10 in open score, ESPN’s measure of how effective a receiver is at getting himself open on a route-by-route basis, regardless of whether he is thrown the ball. This year, he has dropped from ninth to 87th by that metric. Odunze started the day by dropping a third-down pass from Williams, albeit one that was still likely to end up short of the sticks, another little thing this offense doesn’t master. Moore didn’t inspire any controversy, but Williams didn’t look his way when he looked to be open on two of those nine sacks. The Patriots haven’t had a great defense this season, but they had absolutely no fear of lining up their guys and playing man-to-man coverage against Chicago’s top three wide receivers. They played man on 24 of Williams’ 39 dropbacks and limited him to 74 yards on 17 pass attempts. Seven of the Patriots’ nine sacks came with the defense playing man coverage. Teams were not supposed to be able to do that against this group of receivers. Bears fans understandably want changes. That starts with Waldron, who wasn’t necessarily the most popular hire when he joined from the Seahawks in the offseason. While it didn’t directly cost the Bears the game, his decision to hand the ball to Kramer on a third-and-1 in the fourth quarter might be one of the most bizarre decisions I’ve seen a coordinator make in years. On Sunday, he dialed up a sprint-out for Williams out of empty to the weakside where it looked like nobody involved had practiced the play. It ended, unsurprisingly, in a sack. A portion of the fan base wanted the organization to move on from Eberflus in the offseason, when the Bears could have used the opening and the ability to coach Williams to attract an offensive-minded coach. Eberflus’ success coaching up the defense during the second half of 2023 made that an unlikely proposition, while DeMeco Ryans’ tenure in Houston suggested that a defensive head coach could mix just fine with a rookie quarterback. Firing Eberflus, now 14-29 as Chicago’s coach, might satisfy Bears fans who want changes, but I’d be concerned about emulating another long-suffering organization that set itself back. The Jets fired Robert Saleh in October after a rough start to the season. Saleh didn’t have a great record — and firing him during the offseason might have made sense — but getting rid of him during the season when the offense was struggling didn’t, given that New York couldn’t hire a meaningful alternative. Jets fans filled in the panic move by suggesting they were committing too many penalties and getting off to slow starts. Saleh’s departure hasn’t solved those issues or fixed the offense. The Jets still commit too many penalties on both sides of the ball, and they’ve trailed in the first half of every game since his departure, including Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, where they allowed three straight touchdown drives to begin the game. The decisions to swap coordinator Nathaniel Hackett for Todd Downing and trade for wideout Davante Adams, more logical fits to improve the offense, also haven’t done much. Instead, Saleh’s firing (and the promotion of defensive playcaller Jeff Ulbrich to interim coach) has served only to destabilize the defense. The Jets ranked sixth in expected points added (EPA) per play on defense before Saleh’s firing. They are last by that same metric since his departure. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals lit up the Jets, but Russell Wilson and Jacoby Brissett also pulled out victories against what was supposed to be a feared defense. Firing Saleh when they did made no sense for the Jets. For whatever limitations Eberflus might have as a coach, the Bears rank third in EPA per play on defense. I would be nervous that firing Eberflus now, when a new coach won’t have any sort of spring or summer break to install his offense and any coach under contract won’t leave his team in midseason, wouldn’t accomplish anything positive and run the risk of sinking the Bears’ defense the same way that it did the Jets. There might be a time when it makes sense to move on Eberflus, but that’s probably during the offseason. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)Week 10 result: Lost 12-7 to the VikingsThe coach: Doug Pederson Unlike the other teams on this list, the Jaguars actually led for most of the game Sunday, courtesy of an early touchdown drive and three red zone interceptions of Sam Darnold. While the Jacksonville defense was able to quiet Justin Jefferson and keep Minnesota from scoring an offensive touchdown, the Mac Jones-led offense did nothing after the first quarter to extend that lead. No team had lost a game in which it allowed zero offensive touchdowns and forced three interceptions since 2000, with teams going 93-0 between 2021 and 2024 before Sunday. How did that happen? Across the final 45 minutes, the Jaguars produced 62 net yards on offense. That’s the seventh-fewest number produced by any team in the final three quarters over the past decade. The gold standard for bad offensive performances over that time frame is the 2020 COVID-era game when wide receiver Kendall Hinton had to start at quarterback for Denver. Hinton and the Broncos had 24 more yards of offense in the final three quarters of their blowout loss to the Saints than Jones and the Jags did in Week 10. There’s a reasonable case to be made that this was the worst performance of the Pederson era, too. The Jaguars managed only 145 net yards, which is the fewest a Pederson-led team has produced in a game by more than 50 yards. And while some of that might be pinned on Jones being in the lineup for injured starter Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars produced just 215 net yards in last week’s loss to the Eagles. That game, with Lawrence on the field, ranked 122nd out of 124 Pederson-led offensive performances by net yards. By EPA, at minus-0.27 points per snap, this was merely tied with an ugly loss to the Cowboys for the fifth-worst performance from a Pederson-led offense in Jacksonville or Philadelphia. It was the first time in his tenure as a head coach that his offense failed to amass at least 12 first downs in a game, as Jacksonville managed 10 in four quarters. There was a time in which Jones and Pederson wouldn’t have seemed like the worst fit. During Jones’ time at Alabama, he excelled on RPOs, completing more than 90% of his throws while averaging more than 10 yards per attempt. NFL teams can’t build an entire offense out of RPOs, but Pederson was comfortable using them during his time in Philadelphia, especially when Nick Foles was under center. On Sunday, Jones was pretty reasonable when the Jaguars and playcaller Press Taylor gave him quick solutions, as the former Patriots starter went 5-of-6 for 48 yards when he got rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds. Anything longer was essentially a disaster, as he was otherwise 9-of-16 for 63 yards with two picks. He didn’t look confident as a dropback passer. Maybe the RPOs weren’t a great fit. What about getting Jones involved in the play-action game, a common way for coaches to make life easier for quarterbacks? Early in the first quarter, the Jags hit a big play when they booted Jones off a play-fake and had him throw quickly to tight end Brenton Strange, who broke a tackle and went for 23 yards. Hitting the tight end on a bootleg isn’t always going to result in an explosive play, but this seems like an obvious concept to try to hit again as the game went on. Instead, the Jags ran one snap of play-action from under center the rest of the game, and Jones didn’t even boot out of the pocket off it. He had one other snap with play-action, per NFL Next Gen Stats. I’d forgive the Jags if the concepts they were otherwise using were working, but with all their struggles, why not bring back or play off one of the things that worked during the only successful drive of the game? The coaches weren’t the only ones to blame. The execution wasn’t great, either. Jones missed a speed out the Jags were clearly hoping to use as a response to Minnesota’s aggressive blitz packages. The team’s running backs had an appalling game in pass protection, something that unfortunately isn’t new and led to multiple sacks. When they dialed up an early screen, the team’s offensive linemen were late to get to their landmarks, which caused guard Brandon Scherff to go illegally downfield and the play to be blown up for a 1-yard loss. That indiscipline permeates the roster. Last week, Jacksonville appeared to bench cornerback Montaric Brown after he was unable to force Saquon Barkley back to the help defenders on a third-and-17 draw the Eagles’ star took the house. Andre Cisco was flagged for unnecessary roughness when he dove at Eagles lineman Fred Johnson’s legs as Jalen Hurts was about to walk into the end zone, a dirty hit that led the league to fine Cisco $11,817. This week, it was Travon Walker getting flagged for unnecessary roughness as the Jags stopped the Vikings on third down with 1:04 to go, allowing Minnesota to kneel out the remainder of the game. While the game was already all but lost even before the flag, those sorts of penalties as teams are about to score on or beat the Jaguars look embarrassing. Had this been just one game without the team’s franchise quarterback in a successful season, it wouldn’t be much cause for concern. Given how bad this offense has looked even with Lawrence, though, Pederson and Taylor can’t really lean on Jones as the problem. Lawrence isn’t an entirely innocent party when it comes to the issues with this offense, but Sunday was a reminder that things could be even worse without the 2021 No. 1 pick on the field. Between the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023, the Jaguars went 14-4 and outscored teams by four points per game. Since that fateful loss to the Bengals on “Monday Night Football” last December — when a win would have put them in position to claim the top seed in the AFC — the Jags have gone 3-13 and been outscored by 5.3 points per contest. This with a team ownership said was the “best Jaguars team ever assembled” before the season. Instead, these Jags have the same record the Urban Meyer Jags did through 10 games and a game on the road against the Lions on the way next week. Dallas Cowboys (3-6)Week 10 result: Lost 34-6 to the EaglesThe coach: Mike McCarthy I’m not sure quarterback Cooper Rush going 13-of-23 for 45 yards told us a lot about the Cowboys or McCarthy’s future, but it sure wasn’t pretty. To again consider a coach’s whole career in context, going back through 2007, the minus-0.50 EPA per play mark the Cowboys posted in this game was the worst performance by any McCarthy-coached team. The prior record-holder was a Green Bay loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving in 2013 when Matt Flynn started at quarterback and the run game produced 24 yards on 15 carries. This performance by Dallas was the worst EPA per play rate for any offense in any game this season. For some, the takeaway might have been CeeDee Lamb missing a would-be touchdown pass from 3 yards out by losing it in the sun, which chose a conspicuous time to shine through the roof in Arlington, Texas. After the game, Lamb agreed that the Cowboys should consider hanging curtains to block the sunlight, something team owner Jerry Jones insisted would require tearing down the stadium. Jones insisted the sun impacts both teams, and given that he said the Cowboys couldn’t afford running back Derrick Henry this offseason, perhaps he feels like solar power might be a low-cost aid to his struggling pass defense. Instead, I’d argue that the sequence that defined this game involved running back Ezekiel Elliott. Rico Dowdle took most of the snaps on offense early and had nine carries for 52 yards, including a 19-yarder and a 5-yard gain to help push the Cowboys into the red zone. (If a 5-yard gain doesn’t sound like a big deal, consider that the average Dallas snap outside of those two plays gained 2.3 yards.) After a Lamb catch set up first-and-goal, they seemed to set to cash in for an early score that would have given them an unlikely 10-7 lead. Enter Elliott, who came onto the field for the third-down catch by Lamb and stayed on for first-and-goal. After being benched for the prior game, the Cowboys welcomed him back by giving him a first-and-goal carry. Elliott responded by fumbling into the end zone and the Eagles recovered. That was bad. What happened next was worse. The Eagles promptly gave the ball back to the Cowboys on a Jalen Hurts strip-sack, setting up Dallas on Philadelphia’s 6-yard line. Given an opportunity to atone for their mistake, the Cowboys … immediately handed the football to Elliott. He gained 3 yards. Dowdle eventually got a carry on third down and was stuffed, leading the Cowboys to kick a field goal. This isn’t an argument to punish players for making mistakes or to suggest Dowdle is some superstar the Cowboys are holding back. It’s an argument to live in 2024. They are 3-6 and $60 million quarterback Dak Prescott is probably out for the season. Elliott is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has a 35% success rate. He has even allowed five pressures in 20 pass-blocking opportunities. His presence on the roster is strictly for name-brand recognition. It’s better to have someone you know than someone who might actually be able to do the job well right now. That’s true, unfortunately, of too many spots in this organization. The team’s other major offseason addition, linebacker Eric Kendricks, was out in space against Saquon Barkley early in this game and wasn’t quick enough to react before the Eagles’ star blew by. Quarterback Trey Lance came in and almost immediately threw an interception. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has had no answers as teams have bypassed his once state-of-the-art blitz packages. And McCarthy, the team’s veteran coach, couldn’t build a competitive game plan around Rush, who won four of his five starts under the veteran coach in 2022. The difference between that team and this one, as I mentioned last week in my Cowboys discussion, is that the offensive line is broken. Lance and Rush were pressured on more than 40% of their dropbacks and went 5-of-10 for 24 yards with a pick when the pressure got home. And without anybody in the offense to scare them besides Lamb, the Eagles didn’t have to worry about receivers creating after the catch or in space. The two quarterbacks were 12-of-13 on throws under 2.5 seconds, but those 12 completions went for a total of only 40 yards. When they held the ball, Lance and Rush were 5-of-16 for 26 yards. This entire season feels like a scam, an attempt by the Cowboys to fool fans into believing that what they’re seeing is a team with a real shot at being competitive in the NFC. They’ve never really been close. Two of Dallas’ three wins are over the Giants and Browns. Their third is over the Steelers, but even that saw a leaping Dowdle lose a fumble at the 1-yard line on the final sequence of the game before Prescott recovered it and threw a fourth-down touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert to win. That’s the vicious cycle. The Cowboys didn’t invest appropriately at running back this offseason, which left Dowdle as their top choice. Dowdle fumbling at the 1-yard line discouraged McCarthy from giving him the ball and led him to turn to Elliott, who has no ceiling at this point and still managed to lose a fumble. Now, McCarthy might be hesitant to run the ball near the goal line, which won’t help the offense in the rare cases it actually makes it near paydirt. For whatever perception he has had in the past, Jones was actually remarkably patient in giving Jason Garrett a decade as coach without ever making it as far as the NFC Championship Game. It’s unclear whether he intends to offer McCarthy the same sort of long leash — McCarthy is 45-31 in four-plus seasons — but unless Jones plans to trade edge rusher Micah Parsons, there aren’t many changes the Cowboys can make to the core of this team. It would hardly be a surprise if Zimmer was one-and-done here, as Mike Nolan was in 2020, but McCarthy’s status seems more up in the air. Is what happened with Prescott before the injury enough to seal his fate? Or could McCarthy’s future be determined by whether he can coax competent play out of Rush? New York Giants (2-8)Week 10 result: Lost 20-17 to the PanthersThe coach: Brian Daboll On a day in which Daniel Jones ended two trips to the red zone with interceptions, I thought the moment that might end his run as the Giants’ starting quarterback came on a play in which he didn’t throw the ball at all. Facing a third-and-1 on his own 49-yard line in the second quarter, Daboll chose to dial up a flea-flicker. Given that the Giants were in a situation where they would be comfortable going for it on fourth down after an incompletion, it’s easy to understand why Daboll was willing to call something to try to generate an open receiver downfield for a big play. It actually ended up getting two receivers open. Jones just didn’t throw the ball to either of them: Jones instead took a sack that forced the Giants to punt. When he threw an interception on the next drive before halftime, I assumed we would be seeing Drew Lock after the break. At that point, Jones was running a minus-11.1% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) against what has arguably been the league’s worst pass defense. And that doesn’t even include the non-throw on the flea-flicker, which should have been a massive gain. Instead, Jones was back on the field after the half. He played better and led a touchdown drive. After a Chuba Hubbard fumble gave the Giants a short field, Daboll’s team handed it right back with an interception on a poorly placed checkdown. A Jones two-minute drill set up a score-tying field goal, but after Tyrone Tracy fumbled on the first snap of overtime, the Panthers kicked a field goal to push the Giants to loss No. 8. Another reason why Daboll fired up a flea-flicker in that situation is the reality that he has been forced to confront with Jones since taking over as New York coach. Unless it’s deliberately schemed up, Jones doesn’t throw deep. In 2022, that seemed like a virtue, with a quick passing game and the lowest average air yards per throw in the league. It was designed to get the ball out of his hands and avoid the sacks and fumbles that plagued him earlier in his career. Since the start of 2023, though, Jones has 11 deep completions (traveling 20 or more air yards) in 16 starts. While he missed time with a torn ACL, consider that other quarterbacks have exceeded those numbers in limited time. Bo Nix didn’t start playing professional football until 2024, barely threw deep the first month, and he has 12. Nick Mullens, who had three starts for the Vikings last season, has 13. Aaron Rodgers sat out almost all of 2023 and has 14. Even Tyrod Taylor, who started five games in a Malik Nabers-less offense for the Giants last season, has as many deep completions as Jones on about one-third of the overall pass attempts. When passers don’t hit big plays downfield very often, they need to sustain the offense by staying on schedule and converting for first downs. NFL Next Gen Stats tracks a version of success rate for dropbacks that measures how often quarterbacks improve their offense’s expected points from snap to snap. In 2022, Jones’ success rate was 47.9%, which was a respectable 13th in the league. This season, it’s 40.6%, which ranks 27th. Jones was able to supplement that by scrambling, but he hasn’t been as active since 2022. In that playoff season, he averaged 25.1 rushing yards and 1.7 first downs on scrambles per game. That’s down to 8.6 rushing yards on scrambles per game this season, with Jones generating three first downs in nine games. Daboll has called his number instead on designed runs, which are less explosive and more likely to produce the sort of hits that cause injuries. The other factor that helped the offense survive in 2022 and 2023 was a lack of giveaways. Jones ran a career-low 1.1% interception rate in 2022, and while that jumped to 3.8% in his six-start 2023 season, backups Taylor and Tommy DeVito were much better at protecting the football. The Giants had a league-low 7.3% of their drives result in giveaways in 2022, and that jumped to only 8.5% in 2023, which was sixth-best in football. The Giants are 24th by that same metric this season, with more than 12% of their drives ending in turnovers. Last season’s Giants were lucky to recover nearly 71% of their fumbles on offense. They’ve recovered only 53% of those fumbles on offense this season, with what happened in overtime as the most obvious example of how fumble recoveries can help decide games. The common defense of Jones has been that he hasn’t had enough help on offense, that he has been stuck with porous offensive lines and middling receivers for most of his career. There has certainly been at least some truth to those debates. The problem since he got his four-year, $160 million contract, though, is he hasn’t been as good as the players who have filled in for him. Since the start of 2023, the Giants have averaged 1.23 points per drive in the games started by Jones. When Taylor or Tommy DeVito have started, though, they have averaged 1.32 points per possession. They’ve averaged more offensive points per game in Taylor and DeVito starts (16.1) than his starts (13.2). Taylor and DeVito spent last season with Saquon Barkley, but they didn’t have Nabers or Tracy, who had been excellent as a rookie before his fumble Sunday in Germany. What’s left is a passing attack that doesn’t do any of the things needed to sustain a modern offense. Everyone wants to steadily move the chains and hit a ton of deep shots, but not everyone can be Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Quarterbacks can hit a ton of big plays and be inefficient, like the Texans and C.J. Stroud. They can hit virtually no big plays and just rack up first downs, like the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. They can avoid negative plays and move the ball by hitting every open receiver, like Josh Allen does for the Bills. But they have to do one of those things. Jones isn’t doing any of those well enough for the offense to thrive. The Giants can wait to see if Jones turns things around, but there’s a $23 million problem hanging over their heads for 2025. There’s no money guaranteed for skill remaining on his deal after this season, but $23 million of his $30 million base salary in 2025 is guaranteed for injury, meaning Jones would receive that money if he got injured and was unable to pass a physical. For a player with serious knee and neck injuries in his past and who will play the rest of the season without his best offensive lineman in Andrew Thomas, the Giants have to realistically consider whether waiting to see if he can salvage a 2-8 season is worth the risk of being stuck with a huge bill for a quarterback they’re not going to want to keep after the season. With playoff odds below 1%, there’s little reason for the Giants to keep Jones in the lineup. History tells us Lock probably won’t solve many of the problems with this offense, but he has been willing to throw the ball downfield and won’t cost $23 million next year. From Daboll’s perspective, it also gives the coach a chance to prove that he can work with another quarterback. Daboll, who is 17-26-1 as New York’s coach, inherited Jones from the prior regime; the former Bills coordinator would surely like a chance to pick the quarterback he gets to work with in 2025. |
