This from Adam Schefter:

@AdamSchefter

Five teams – Arizona, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Seattle – converted a game-winning field goal with no time remaining in Week 10, the most game-winning scores with no time remaining in regulation in a single week in NFL history.

And, with the kicks by Arizona, Detroit and Seattle having an impact, here is how If The Season Ended Today looks in the NFC after Week 10:

                                               W-L               Conf

 1  Philadelphia        East        8-1                   6-0

 2  Detroit                 North      7-2                   4-1

 5  San Francisco    West       6-3                   4-1

 4  New Orleans      South      5-5                   2-3

 5  Seattle                WC1       6-3                   5-1

 6  Dallas                 WC2      6-3                    3-3

 7  Minnesota          WC3       6-4                   5-2

 8 Tampa Bay                        4-5                   3-3

 9 Washington                       4-6                    2-5

10  Atlanta                             4-6                    3-4

The Eagles were on bye, and the six teams from 2 to 7 all won except the Saints.

The Buccaneers were the big winners in the lagging NFC South.  With their win and the Saints loss they are a half-game back now and have a head-to-head win.

– – –

The QB supply is not meeting the QB demand.  Peter King:

I think the biggest mystery in sports—not just football, but all of sports—is how difficult it is to project who’s going to be a good NFL quarterback coming from college football. In the five drafts from 2018 to 2022, 15 quarterbacks were picked in the top 15. As of this morning, eight have either failed or been average or worse: Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen. The jury’s out on two more, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray. Only five—Burrow, Herbert, Tagovailoa, Allen, Lawrence—are solid starters or better. This year, as I look at all the teams with QB needs, I wonder how the Giants and Patriots and Bears and Seahawks and Bucs are going to make sure they’re not part of the majority that flunk QB Prospecting 101.

15 QBs in the top 15 in those 5 drafts, just 3 in the rest of the first round.  All three of those are starting with LAMAR JACKSON a star and JORDAN LOVE and KENNY PICKETT probably King’s Daniel Jones/Kyler Murray jury’s out category.

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

QB JARED GOFF sought out an uncomfortable conversation with Sean McVay.  And today, he’s the assured leader of one of the league’s best teams.  Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times:

His father was a fireman and, in a way, Jared Goff is one too.

Consider his career as a quarterback. Time after time, he has gone into a bad situation and ultimately made it better, extinguishing the wrong kind of fire and eventually igniting the right one.

“It’s not the most fun way to do it, I guess,” Goff told The Times in a phone interview this week. “Everyone would love to go and just win, win, win. But it’s a very rewarding and fulfilling way to go about it. Proud of myself, certainly, and all those teammates on those teams for being down in the gutter and being able to come out on top.”

Check the history. At the University of California, his teams went from 1-11 to winning a bowl game. His Rams went from 4-12 his rookie year to the Super Bowl two years later. And with the Detroit Lions, Goff’s team went from 3-13-1 to now, a season and a half later, 6-2 and one of the NFL’s top franchises.

The Lions, who play at the Chargers on Sunday, have generated at least 325 yards of offense in each of their first eight games, the first time they’ve done that since 1954. From Week 10 of last year through Week 6 this season, they scored at least 20 points in a franchise-record 15 games in a row.

“They really force you to defend everybody on the field,” Chargers coach Brandon Staley said. “They have a lot of different guys who touch the football. Jared has a lot of experience playing that way. That is how he played with Sean [McVay] with the Rams, and that is how he is playing now. He is playing really smart football and he is getting the ball to his play-makers.”

The last eight years have been a winding odyssey for Goff, 29, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft. The Rams made dramatic moves to get him, then, just five years later, worked just as hard to replace him with Detroit’s Matthew Stafford — even though they had signed Goff to a $110-million deal just two years earlier.

So two quarterbacks taken first overall swapped cities, and Goff, even though he already had been to a Super Bowl, had huge cleats to fill in Detroit.

Stafford was enormously popular in the Motor City and remains so, and his legend only grew when he went to Los Angeles and won a Super Bowl in his first season. They might as well have been the Detroit Rams with the way those Stafford-loyal Lions fans were pulling for them.

Meanwhile, Goff’s teams were really struggling. In his inaugural season in Detroit, the Lions didn’t win their first game until Week 13. Last season, despite glimmers of promise, they got off to a 1-6 start before turning a corner, winning eight of their final 10 games.

Initially, there was a strong belief outside the franchise that Goff was merely a placeholder keeping the seat warm for the next great Lions hope, but clearly the club’s decision-makers had something else in mind. One of those people was general manager Brad Holmes, who came from the Rams and had been with Goff in L.A.

“The narrative when he got here was a little skewed,” Holmes said. “People thought he was a throw-in because of his contract. That was not the case. There were other quarterbacks who were on the carousel that year, and [Rams GM Les Snead] and I had a conversation specifically of, ‘Do you want Jared in the deal?’ And I was like, ‘Absolutely.’ ”

That turned out to be a shrewd decision, even though it took patience for coach Dan Campbell and the Lions to stick with Goff through the early turbulence while the foundation was being poured for the ground-up rebuild.

The lanky and laid-back Goff, a California kid out of Central Casting, initially seemed like a mismatch for the hard-edged grit of Detroit. Much of that was based on superficial appearances.

Though he’s 6 feet 4, Goff doesn’t have that prototypical bulk of the Chargers’ Justin Herbert or Buffalo’s Josh Allen. The Detroit quarterback is deceptively durable, however.

“I remember when Jared came out, and I want to say he was playing versus Washington,” recalled Holmes, director of college scouting for the Rams at the time. “And he takes this shot, this blitzer comes right down the pipe and just smokes him dead in the face. Jared just uncorked this dime deep for a touchdown. I was like, ‘Oh, this kid’s tough.’”

Goff has made 39 of 42 possible starts with Detroit.

“You’re not going to get me off the field unless I can’t move or can’t function,” he said. “I owe it to my guys. I owe it to my team. We trust each other.”

Of the perception he’s a sleepy-eyed West Coaster who lacks intensity, he said: “I’ve kind of been misperceived my whole life that way. I don’t think I’m much different than a lot of quarterbacks around the league. A lot of us get labeled as some things, certain perceptions.

“It’s a lot easier for someone to create a narrative of you than it is for you to break that narrative of yourself. That’s not ever my goal. I’m not worried what people are writing or whatever. But at some point you’re like, well, that’s not even close to the truth.”

The middle of the country wasn’t an unfamiliar place for the family. Before becoming a fireman, Jerry Goff was a Major League catcher for the Montreal Expos, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros. He and his wife, Nancy, thought their son had a chance to develop a special connection with fans in Detroit.

“Nancy and I mentioned to him that the Midwest is beautiful,” the elder Goff said. “I lived out there a lot during my playing days and I loved it. That was our focus to him, ‘Fans are unbelievable. Culture is wonderful.’ And he’s really taken that on.”

That’s not to say the transition was easy.

“He went through some real dark times at first in a rebuild,” Jerry Goff said. “He really learned a lot about himself, he and his fiancée being out there by themselves, away from L.A. and really just digging in on the football side.”

For Jared Goff, a key part of moving on to the Lions required getting some closure from the Rams. In the weeks after the Stafford trade was done, instead of walking away without a word, Goff went back to McVay so he could understand the specific reasons why the team parted ways with him — and what Goff could glean from the experience to make himself a better player.

“He wanted the full breakdown of why,” recalled former Rams tackle Andrew Whitworth, a close friend of Goff. “I thought that really showed his toughness.”

Goff showed up at Whitworth’s house in the days after the deal was consummated to get his thoughts. Then Goff informed him he was moving on for an exit meeting with his former coach.

“I’m like, ‘Wait, what?’ ” Whitworth recalled. “And he’s like, ‘I told Sean I still want to do our exit meeting…’ And I was like, ‘You’re crazy. Why would you want to do an exit?’ And he said, ‘I want him to tell me right to my face what I did wrong. I want to hear it from him. How do I get better?’ He wanted closure.”

Recalling that two years later, Goff didn’t go into details about what was said in his final meeting with McVay, saying only: “I got some answers and gained a lot of closure. He was forthright.”

Clearly, Goff is deep into the next chapter, as are the Rams, who this week signed quarterback Carson Wentz as their backup. He was drafted second overall by Philadelphia in 2016. There was much speculation before that draft about whether the Rams would take Goff or Wentz.

“It’s very ironic he’s there,” Goff said of Wentz. “But I’m really happy for him.”

Likewise, Goff and the Lions are gaining fans around the country by the week.

“He’s a winning quarterback who has taken a team to the Super Bowl and has a chance to do it again,” said ESPN’s Joe Buck, who called Detroit’s win over Las Vegas in Week 8. “The Lions are the de facto America’s Team. Everybody roots for Detroit. And I think if you knew Jared Goff, everybody would root for Jared.”

MINNESOTA

Here’s a stat sort that puts WR JOSH DOBBS in unique company, per Peter King:

After beating the Saints Sunday, he is now the first player in league history with 400 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and zero interceptions in his first two games with a team.

And – can you guess who has the longest win streak in the NFL?  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com with the revelation:

The Vikings got off to a 1-4 start, and just when they appeared to be turning things around, they lost quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season. It would have been easy to write off Minnesota.

But the Vikings have now won five in a row — the longest winning streak in the NFL at the moment.

At 6-4, the Vikings are very much in the NFC playoff race, thanks in large part to quarterback Josh Dobbs, who has exceeded expectations with his stellar play since arriving in a trade with the Cardinals and being rushed into duty in replacing Cousins. With the way Dobbs and the rest of the team are playing, there’s every reason to believe they can keep that winning streak going.

That’s especially true given the Vikings’ schedule: They’re at Denver on Sunday, followed by a home Monday night game against the Bears, then their bye week and then a trip to Las Vegas. It’s easy to see the Vikings winning those three games and being on an eight-game winning streak when they head to Cincinnati in Week 15.

The Vikings also are not out of the NFC North race, despite the Lions’ status as the favorites. Detroit is 1.5 games ahead of Minnesota, but the Lions and Vikings face off in Week 16 and Week 18, so all the Vikings have to do is stay within two games of the Lions to control their division destiny heading into the final three weeks of the season.

After so much pessimism surrounding the Vikings for most of this season, it’s increasingly looking like a bright season in Minnesota, and one that may not be over when the regular season concludes.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

Peter King on the accomplishments and confidence of WR CEEDEE LAMB, a Week 10 Player of the Week:

CeeDee Lamb, wide receiver, Dallas. With apologies to Dak Prescott, who threw for 404 yards and accounted for five touchdowns in the 49-17 rout of the Giants, Lamb’s my pick this week. No receiver in NFL had three straight games with at least 10 catches and 150 yards until Lamb’s current run. His last three: 12 for 158, 11 for 191, and on Sunday in Texas against the depleted Giants, 11 for 151. “I’m the top receiver in the game. It’s no question about it,” he said after this one. There is some question, CeeDee, but you’re doing a good job distancing yourself.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Twelve months ago, Brian Daboll was the Big Apple of the Big Apple’s Eye.

Now, they are digging up stats like this, lifted from elsewhere in today’s Briefing:

Brian Daboll, like Carolina’s Frank Reich, is 4-15-1 in his past 20 games, counting playoffs

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

QB DESMOND RIDDER was back in the saddle late in Sunday’s game and did some good things.  Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com on the aftermath of the injury-related change:

Taylor Heinicke slowly limped out of the Atlanta Falcons locker room early Sunday evening after his team lost to the Arizona Cardinals 25-23, making his way toward the bus on the pulled hamstring that knocked him out of the game in the fourth quarter.

And he might have put in flux — or potentially answered — Atlanta’s quarterback conversation.

Earlier this week, Falcons coach Arthur Smith said they would use the bye week to evaluate the starting quarterback spot for the rest of the season after Heinicke replaced former starter Desmond Ridder over the past 2½ games. After Sunday’s loss — Atlanta’s sixth in its past eight games — Smith said the performances of both Heinicke and Ridder against the Cardinals will play a role in the decision-making process.

Heinicke completed 8 of 15 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown while being sacked three times and rushing four times for 34 yards. Ridder came in early in the fourth quarter, after Heinicke got hurt, and completed 4 of 6 passes for 39 yards and rushed three times for 11 yards, including a go-ahead touchdown with 2:33 left to give the Falcons a 23-22 lead.

“It definitely had an effect,” Smith said. “We got to make a decision. Des did a nice job coming back out there. I thought he kind of reset and, confident in him. You know, if he had to come in the second play of the game, the way he prepared.

“He didn’t flinch. He made some [plays], gave us a chance to win.”

Sunday created almost a reversal of what put the Falcons in this quarterback quandary to start with. In Week 8 against Tennessee, Ridder left the game at halftime after being evaluated for (but cleared from) a concussion. Heinicke came in and played in the second half and then was given the next two games — eventual losses to Minnesota and Arizona — as the starter.

“I thought we moved the ball pretty well in the first half,” Heinicke said. “Scored some points when we got in the red zone, took care of the ball. So that’s everything we’ve been working on.

“But it wasn’t good enough.”

Smith said Heinicke’s numbers might have looked a little different because Atlanta wanted to focus on running the ball early and maintain long possessions. The Falcons did that, scoring touchdowns on two of their first three drives. In the third quarter, though, Heinicke led four drives that resulted in a total of minus-2 yards before the injury early in the final quarter.

Ridder said he was “a little stiff” when he realized he was going back into the game but immediately took snaps with center Drew Dalman while trainers looked at Heinicke.

“My job was to come in and be the backup to Taylor,” Ridder said. “And then be ready to go, and I feel like I did my job in that aspect.”

What stood out to Smith — who did not say whether he has made a quarterback decision — was how Ridder handled the play that led to his 9-yard touchdown. It’s a play Ridder ran successfully multiple times when he was the starter, a zone read, and he again used it with success.

When Smith was asked whether Heinicke had shown enough, the coach ended up discussing what might end up being decision markers for both quarterbacks.

“Look, the first half, and every plan is different. We felt really confident in the way we wanted to run the ball and we did early,” Smith said. “They made some adjustments and we got off track, so it’s not all on him. So, Des came in, I mean, it’s unfortunate Taylor pulled his hamstring extending a play. He made some play extensions on some pass plays early that led to touchdowns, kept drives going.

“We’ll look at everything, but it’s definitely encouraging seeing Des come back in there. He’s settled, he was very confident. If he wasn’t, he wouldn’t have pulled the ball [on the zone read] right there. I can tell you that. That play will tell you a lot because if you don’t want the ball in your hands, it would be real easy to hand it off. So that’s one assessment I can give you, just stating the obvious.”

After going 2-6 in the past eight games, Smith said the Falcons are going to “look at everything” over the bye week. He said they know they need to make adjustments with seven games left, although the team will not be making staff changes. Though the Falcons are 4-6, they are only one game back of the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and play them in Week 12.

“We’re going to put everything we have humanly possible to do our job better and go win this division,” Smith said. “And that’s all we can control. It’s unfortunate and [frustrating]. You got to look at everything and that’s what we’ll do, that’s our plan going into the bye. So it’s coming at the right time for us. We need to reset and we’ll be ready to roll.”

TAMPA BAY

Before the Buccaneers scored a fairly-convincing win over the Titans, rumors swirled on who might be the replacement for Todd Bowles.  Matthew Davis of The Heavy expands upon podcast chit-chat from Ira Kaufman, who could be a Buccaneers Insider:

Bill Belichick could follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady and leave the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It could happen in a vastly different way, however, with two coaches on the hot seat. Buccaneers insider Ira Kaufman discussed the possibility of Belichick joining the Buccaneers as his next coaching destination during the “Ira Kaufman Podcast” recently according to Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio.

The Patriots remain mired in a dismal season at 2-7, and Belichick could lose his head coaching job if the team falls to the Indianapolis Colts in Germany according to the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin. Tampa Bay meanwhile remains stuck in a four-game losing streak, which reignited rumors of head coach Todd Bowles losing his job sooner or later.

Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht has ties to Belichick from their time in New England, which Kaufman and company discussed per Florio. Licht served in player personnel roles with the Patriots in 2002 and 2009-2011 before he joined the Buccaneers in 2014.

The Kaufman podcast team, according to Florio, noted that Licht and Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien share the same agent. The Buccaneers previously had O’Brien on the offensive coordinator radar this year before he opted for New England.

Kaufman and company discussed that the Buccaneers have gone for big-name head coaches in the past, Florio wrote. That includes former Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano, a recommendation by Belichick, and the franchise had Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden before. Tampa Bay previously pursued Bill Parcells in 2002 plus Bill Cowher and Chip Kelly at different points.

Bill Belichick to the Buccaneers Faces 1 Major Hurdle This Year

Whether or not the Patriots will fire Belichick soon and the Buccaneers will fire Bowles quickly remains to be seen. Current Buccaneers ownership doesn’t have a history of firing head coaches midseason as Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds noted.

With that said, Kaufman described Bowles as “shell-shocked” over his team’s performance against the Houston Texans, especially the defense. Kaufman added that “something has to change” if the Buccaneers lose a fifth-straight game in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans.

If the Patriots part ways with Belichick after Germany, the team could turn to Jerod Mayo to serve as the interim head coach, Volin reported. The Patriots insider emphasized that “I don’t think it’s 100% that Belichick finishes out this season” and that “there’s a chance the Krafts could make the move” during the bye week.

Buccaneers Have Talent, Opportunity to Intrigue Bill Belichick

Licht’s indication of planning to keep star wide receiver Mike Evans in 2024, according to podcast co-host Lee Diekemper, along with fellow wideout Chris Godwin gives a prospective coach “a couple of carrots” to work with. The hosts also speculated that the Buccaneers could pursue a new quarterback in the draft instead of keeping Baker Mayfield next season, another incentive for a prospective coach such as Belichick.

Tampa Bay currently sits at the No. 8 pick if the season ends today, which could garner a quality quarterback. Michigan’s J.J.McCarthy or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. could easily call that far.

As for the defense, the Buccaneers had a quality unit in the past three seasons, and this year’s defense started strong before the recent slide. A new head coach could build on that.

We do know that the Glazer family, particularly Joel Glazer who might be the most influential member of the ruling structure, has nurtured a relationship with Belichick over the years.  It’s not happening this year, but we wouldn’t be stunned if it materialized at some point.

The Buccaneers are one of four teams that Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com identifies as possible suitors for Belichick:

We’ve already talked about what the Patriots could do in a post-Belichick world, but what about the head coach himself? If these sides do part ways, does Belichick simply go off into retirement — he’s 71 — or does he look for a new situation in the NFL? Given that he is just 16 wins behind Don Shula for the all-time record for a head coach, he may stick around to finish his career atop the record book. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some possible landing spots for arguably the greatest head coach of all time.

Washington Commanders

This has been the sexy landing spot whenever the conversation turns to where Belichick could end up if his time in New England ran out. Washington is an organization in transition with new ownership entering its first offseason after purchasing the franchise. Ron Rivera’s team is currently under .500 and it does seem like Josh Harris’ group will look for their own guy to rebuild with, setting up the possibility of the team cleaning house at the end of the year.

As is the case whenever a new owner comes into the picture, they typically like to make a big splash out of the gate. Well, what bigger splash would there be than to bring Belichick aboard to reset the franchise going forward? For Belichick, the Commanders present a situation where he could have total control of the team in a similar fashion that he does with the Patriots now. The club also has some solid pieces in-house, Sam Howell has shown promise in his first full season as the starter, and the team does possess the third-most amount of cap space this offseason along with a potential top-10 pick at the 2024 NFL Draft. 

A final stint with the Commanders could also be looked at as a homecoming for Belichick, who grew up in Annapolis, Maryland, which is about 30 minutes away from FedEx Field.

Dallas Cowboys

The big question here would be roster control. Would Jerry Jones — the owner and GM of the Cowboys — allow Belichick to have the final say over roster decisions if he were to bring the future Hall of Fame coach to Dallas? Because if he doesn’t, that probably ends the conversation as it’s hard to imagine Belichick being told who is and is not on his roster at this stage of his career. But let’s work under the assumption that Jones would give way and at least be fully collaborative with Belichick in this endeavor. Boy, would this be something: The greatest head coach of all time joining forces with America’s team.

The Cowboys already have a roster ready-made for a Super Bowl run and sit at 5-3 on the year heading into Week 10. One of the big concerns about this current team making a title run has been the coaching under Mike McCarthy. If he falls short of a deep playoff run once again, that could open the door for Jones to make the change. Belichick would come in, have instant credibility amongst the roster, and could very well solve the execution and mental mistakes this Cowboys team has been plagued with for recent seasons. If Belichick not only wants to catch Shula, but possibly stack another Super Bowl onto his résumé, there aren’t many better options in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, there would be something ironic about the Buccaneers again being the landing spot for a Patriots icon, but don’t sleep on this scenario. Historically, the Glazer family has never shied away from going after big-time talent and that includes the head coaching spot. Back in 2002, this ownership group swung a trade with the Raiders to bring in Jon Gruden as head coach.

Currently, the Bucs are 3-5 on the season and Todd Bowles is 11-14 as the head coach since taking over for Bruce Arians last season. If Tampa Bay misses out on the playoffs this year and limps down the stretch, that could lead to the ousting of Bowles and create an avenue for Belichick. There is familiarity with the Buccaneers front office as GM Jason Licht had two different tenures under Belichick with the Patriots, including a period from 2009 to 2011 when he was the director of player personnel. With that prior working relationship in mind, there could be a collaborative approach to roster building with Belichick and Licht in his hypothetical partnership. 

Tampa Bay still has some pieces from its Super Bowl-winning squad of a few years ago and will have over $60 million in cap space to make improvements this offseason. Baker Mayfield is a quarterback the Patriots reportedly liked coming out of the 2018 NFL Draft, so even the situation under center could be appealing to Belichick. And if you’re talking about stacking up wins, the NFC South is one of the least competitive divisions in the NFL. If Belichick can turn the Bucs into the class of that division, he’s arguably looking at six wins out of the gate, which helps in his chase of Shula. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Brandon Staley has one of the hottest seats in the NFL at the moment as the Chargers have routinely been a team that oozes talent on both sides of the ball, but questionable coaching moments haven’t allowed them to reach their full potential. The team is currently .500 entering Week 10 and if they miss the playoffs that could spell the end to not only Staley’s tenure but possibly even GM Tom Telesco’s as well if the Spanos family decides to clean house. For Belichick, this landing spot is similar to what we described with Dallas, but has one key difference: Justin Herbert. Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and if Belichick aligns himself with the former first-round pick and builds a winning culture around him, the sky is the limit for Los Angeles. 

Peter King does not have the Buccaneers:

. I think, just to throw it out there, here are my best Bill Belichick-on-the-free-market options, if indeed, Robert Kraft “parts ways” with Belichick (2-8 this year, 27-34 post-Brady) after the season:

a. Dallas. The Cowboys could be in play, I think, only if they don’t win the division, have some sketchy outings down the stretch and go winless in the playoffs. In that case, I could see Jerry Jones chasing Belichick, repeating history from two decades ago. Before you say Belichick would never work for Jerry, remember 2003, when we all thought Bill Parcells would never work for Jones.

b. Washington. Interesting regional thought: Belichick grew up in Annapolis, 23 miles from FedEx Field. At first glance, it seems like an odd fit—progressive new ownership aligning with a trophy coach who might be a dinosaur. Wouldn’t Josh Harris want a vibrant coach for the long term? But if Harris believes age is just a number with Belichick, I could see him kicking the tires.

c. L.A. Chargers. I’m dubious Dean Spanos would have a relative blank check for Belichick. But if L.A. goes winless in the postseason again, or finishes out of the money, Spanos just might sniff around Belichick. Also, Belichick is 18 wins from breaking Don Shula’s record for coaching victories. Who knows how many wins away he’ll be after this year. Fifteen? Sixteen? He’d have to think he could win eight games a year, minimum, with Justin Herbert.

d. Chicago. Makes no sense if ownership and Ryan Poles believe they want to get the quarterback and offense right to commit to Belichick, 72 next year. So this one seems a longshot.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

QB KYLER MURRAY played, and played pretty well, on Sunday.  Is he playing out his Arizona string these final two months or is he a player in the Cardnals plans for 2024?  Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

Kyler Murray will be the Cardinals’ starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2024 season

Murray made his long-awaited return from last season’s torn ACL and started his first game of the 2023 for the Cardinals on Sunday. He led Arizona to a victory over the Falcons, going 19-for-32 for 249 yards passing and an interception. He came inches away from a touchdown pass, but receiver Michael Wilson went down just short of the goal line, and the Cardinals wisely opted to tush push their way in with backup Clayton Tune instead of the guy coming off a serious knee injury.

Murray did run for a touchdown earlier in the game, and he contributed 33 yards on six carries, indicating that maybe he won’t be limited in that aspect coming off the injury. In fact, Murray even reached a top speed of 20.17 mph on a 13-yard scramble on third-and-10, the fifth-fastest speed he has reached in his career (NFL Next Gen Stats).

All in all, it was a solid and encouraging return to action for Murray, who’s still signed through 2028 and has a guaranteed $35.3 million salary next season.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There are still a number of different ways this could go. Arizona has a new GM and coaching staff that didn’t draft Murray and didn’t see him play for them until Sunday. This win improved the team to 2-8, so Arizona is still obviously a candidate to have a high pick in next year’s draft, where it could potentially find Murray’s replacement. The Cardinals would suffer massive dead-money hits if they cut or traded Murray, but if they had a chance at, say, USC’s Caleb Williams, that might be something they’d consider.

But what I know from my reporting on this situation is that the Cardinals haven’t made up their mind or ruled anything out. They want to see Murray play the rest of this season so they can decide whether their best course of action is to keep him and use their draft picks to build around him. The story on Murray isn’t written yet, and him returning as the Cardinals’ QB for 2024 and beyond is still within the realm of possibility. Sunday’s performance — which could understandably have been marred by rust but was not — only helps his case.

SAN FRANCISCO

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com on the 49ers big win in JAX:

There was pretty much only one thing that went wrong for the 49ers on Sunday. Late in the game and up 27-3 on the Jaguars, they were trying their darndest to get running back Christian McCaffrey a touchdown, and they just couldn’t get it done. McCaffrey entered the game on an NFL-record-tying streak of 17 straight games with at least one touchdown. But sole possession of the record was not meant to be. Instead, it was fullback Kyle Juszczyk who got the final score of the game — the fourth different 49ers player to score in the 34-3 win over Jacksonville.

“Yeah, I suck,” McCaffrey joked after the game. “Everybody on offense scored but me.”

It was a day to laugh and exhale for the 49ers, who had lost three games in a row to drop to 5-3 ahead of their Week 9 bye. They needed a win — and a big, decisive road win against one of the hottest teams in the league was the perfect medicine. “Those three games, that wasn’t us,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “We needed to get back to playing 49er football and being proud of what we put on tape, and today we did that.”

It was an impressive enough victory to earn the 49ers the coveted top spot in the overreactions column, in which we judge some of the biggest potential takeaways off the Week 10 slate of games.

The 49ers are back to being the NFC favorites

Without a doubt, this looked a lot more like the 49ers team that won its first five games than the one that lost the following three. They didn’t turn it over once, and they took the ball away from the Jaguars four times. The defense had five sacks and held the Jaguars to 59 rushing yards. Quarterback Brock Purdy threw three touchdown passes, and the offense scored 30-plus points for the sixth time.

It was a three-hour party for the team that flew across the country hoping to feel more like itself after a month that had people outside the organization questioning it. “I always said if we don’t turn it over and don’t have a bunch of penalties on first and second downs, we’ll score a lot of points,” tight end George Kittle said. And the Niners did just that Sunday.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Nobody looks scarier than the 49ers do when they’re right. With receiver Deebo Samuel and offensive tackle Trent Williams back from injury, the offense looked completely different. And if edge rusher Chase Young can be a contributor up front on defense, they have as formidable a defensive line rotation as anyone in the league. They are absolutely one of the favorites to win the NFC and reach the Super Bowl.

But the Eagles were off this week, and the Cowboys looked pretty dominant (albeit against the Giants). The 7-2 Lions are going to be tough, and the Vikings have some kind of magic working right now. Heck, the Niners aren’t even clear of the Seahawks yet in their own division. They will have a fight on their hands in the NFC. All Sunday did was remind us what they can be when they’re at their best.

– – –

Peter King explains how the trade for EDGE CHASE YOUNG could be a free rental, even if Young signs elsewhere at the end of the season:

Why the Chase Young trade could turn into a totally no-risk deal for the 49ers:

San Francisco owns the projected 101st overall pick in the 2024 draft as the Compensatory Pick for losing DeMeco Ryans and Ran Carthon to Houston and Tennessee, respectively. The Niners traded that Comp Pick to Washington for edge-rusher Young.

Let’s assume Young is a rental for the 49ers, and signs a free agent deal elsewhere for, say, $23 million a year in March 2024. It’s likely the Niners will get a third-round Compensatory Pick in return in the 2025 draft—unless they sign another high-priced free agent or two, which is unlikely given their current salary structure and need to re-sign their own top players. If Young leaves and the 49ers get a third-round pick in return, the pick would be likely be somewhere in the 97 to 101 range. Let’s, for fun, call it the 99th pick.

So this trade could end up being:

San Francisco trades the 101st pick in 2024 to Washington …

San Francisco acquires Young for the final nine regular-season games in 2023 and possibly some number of postseason games, plus the 99th pick in 2025.

Imagine getting the benefit of Young for 11 or 12 games—and then a slightly better draft pick than you traded for him.

AFC NORTH

Dan Graziano of ESPN.com:

All four AFC North teams will reach the playoffs

The big game of the day in the league’s best division was the Browns’ comeback victory over the first-place Ravens. It pulled Baltimore back closer to the rest of the AFC North field. The Ravens are still in first place at 7-3, but the Browns are a half-game behind at 6-3. So are the Steelers, who won again Sunday despite giving up more yards than they gained — something they’ve now done in all nine of their games. The Bengals lost a tough one to C.J. Stroud and the red-hot Texans, so they’re in last place and on the outside looking in at the moment — even at 5-4.

If the season ended right now, the Ravens, Browns and Steelers would all be playoff teams, while the 5-4 Bengals would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker for the final spot to the 5-4 Texans. (The Bills, who are 5-4, play on Monday night and could jump both Cincinnati and Houston with a win over Denver.)

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I do not know how the Steelers are doing this, and I expect it to catch up with them at some point. But right now, all they have to do is go 4-4 the rest of the way for a good chance to get in. Cleveland’s defense is going to keep it in most games, and it just won a shootout on the road against a Baltimore team that had been looking unbeatable. And the Bengals were looking fantastic for more than a month, and they even had a late lead Sunday despite being banged-up and shorthanded on offense before Stroud led another winning drive against them.

ESPN’s Football Power Index currently projects all four teams with between 30% and 88% chances to make the playoffs. If Cincinnati can beat Baltimore on Thursday (big if, but far from impossible) and tighten things up even further in this division, the likelihood of the AFC North landing all four teams in the postseason will only go up.

CINCINNATI

In addition to losing a game, the Bengals may lose a top pass rusher.  Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:

Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is kicking off a short week by getting his knee checked out.

Hendrickson hyperextended his knee during Sunday’s loss when Texans wide receiver Noah Brown fell into his leg at the end of a play late in the game. Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that Hendrickson is having an MRI as part of the process of determining the severity of the injury.

The hope is that any absence from the lineup will be a short one, but that may still mean he misses the team’s next game. The Bengals visit the Ravens on Thursday night, so there’s not much time for Hendrickson to heal up.

Hendrickson has 27 tackles, 8.5 sacks and two forced fumbles for the Bengals so far this season.

The injury was silly, happening long after the play when a Texan slid into Hendrickson’s knee after getting tangled up with another Bengal a good distance away.  Take a look:

https://sicscore.com/nfl/updates/trey-hendrickson-injury-update

CLEVELAND

Peter King on the importance of Sunday’s win – especially as it relates to QB DESHAUN WATSON and his relationship with the team and its fan base:

That was one wild Browns win in Baltimore, the last-second 33-31 game. It meant the top three teams in the division would end Week 10 a half-game apart (Baltimore 7-3, Cleveland 6-3, Pittsburgh 6-3), with dangerous Cincinnati in the weeds at 5-4. Week 11: Bengals at Ravens on Thursday, Steelers at Browns on Sunday.

The Cleveland comeback was nutty enough that the name of Victor Wembanyama cross-pollinated its way into the post-game conversation I had with Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski about falling behind 7-0 in the first minute on a Deshaun Watson pick-six. “We got in that hole early,” Stefanski said. “That first pass play, you gotta tip your cap to Kyle Hamilton. He’s like Wemby [the 7-foot-4 Spurs rookie] out there playing nickel. You gotta just say ‘All right, let’s go start this game over.’”

The Hamilton pick-six was amazingly athletic, and it had to be deflating for the Browns. Deflating, too, was settling for field goals on Cleveland’s first three scoring drives, and Watson injuring his ankle on a first-half tackle. Midway through the third quarter, it was Baltimore, 24-9. But here came Watson. He led a 10-minute drive to make it 24-17. Baltimore lengthened the lead to 31-17, but in one fourth-quarter minute, the Browns got two touchdowns—on a Watson-to-Elijah Moore pass and on a 34-yard Greg Newsome interception return.

With Watson favoring his left ankle, his performance was all the more impressive. This was the first time Cleveland fans could watch their $230-million quarterback and say, Maybe he’s worth it. Two 75-yard TD drives and a well-oiled final drive to the winning field goal. Cleveland took over at its 42 with 4:55 left in the game, trailing, 31-30. Watson’s 14th straight completion of the second half at the two-minute warning, a well-placed 17-yarder to Amari Cooper, gave Cleveland life. A gimpy Watson scramble for 16 put the Browns in long field-goal range, and three more runs got them 18 yards closer. The narrative coming in was the coronation of Lamar Jackson, but Watson outplayed him down the stretch, and Cleveland put up 24 points on the vaunted Baltimore D—which had crushed Detroit and Seattle, recently—in the last 20 minutes.

“Deshaun has that mentality that he’s just going to do whatever it takes to win,” Stefanski said. “He was battling through an ankle injury in that second half. He made plays with his feet. He scrambled. He found the open guys. He did what he does. A huge part of what he does is lead this football team. He was selected captain for a reason. I just saw him leading the football team there in the second half.”

I asked Stefanski if there were moments that he wondered whether Watson would be worth the money and the bad press. Did he waver? “No,” Stefanski said. “I don’t know if there’s a more emphatic way to say, ‘consistent confidence.’ He wins football games. He’s done it his entire life – that’s just who he is. I have the utmost confidence in him. Always did.”

This from PK DUSTIN HOPKINS:

I feel a bit like an arsonist that gets to put out his own fire and then gets a pat on the back.

–Dustin Hopkins, the Cleveland kicker who atoned for a late missed PAT that would have tied the game at 31 by kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired in the Browns’ 33-31 win at Baltimore.

PITTSBURGH

Peter King:

The Steelers are so weird. Outgained in all nine games, and a half-game out of first in the AFC North—with the tiebreaker edge over the first-place Ravens.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

We will have the If The Season Ended Today for the AFC tomorrow, after Buffalo plays.  But if the season ended on Monday morning, the Texans would be in the playoffs and the Bengals, Bills, Jets and others would be out.

Peter King:

We’re in the middle of November, and three surprising things are true:

1. The Texans, 5-4 and an AFC Wild Card team as of this morning, are the story of the year, and have an exceedingly manageable schedule in the last eight weeks.

2. C.J. Stroud’s running away with Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s in the discussion for MVP. (At least on my ballot, he is.)

3. DeMeco Ryans is my 10-week Coach of the Year.

Let’s go to Cincinnati, where the Texans were seven-point ‘dogs Sunday, where Stroud built a 27-17 lead and with 3:41 left in the game was just trying to run out the clock. This was, in Vitalespeak, Lock City. Texans’ game. Then, in one of the few glaring mistakes Stroud has made in this boffo rookie season, he underthrew rookie wideout Tank Dell on third-and-two, and his old Big Ten buddy, Cam Taylor-Britt, picked it off.

Stroud’s 22 going on 32, and after the game sounded like he’d been in this situation 63 times before, and he wasn’t too upset about it. There is a sense of calm in Stroud’s orbit, the kind of calm a 22-year-old kid should not have.

“I mean, this game, it’s a players’ game,” Stroud said from the Houston locker room. “I’ve had a lot of respect for Cam Taylor-Britt over the years. He’s a player. Made a hell of a play. Of course, I just should have taken the sack there and punted. But the type of person I am, a one-play-at-a-time guy, that’s not gonna kill me. And my teammates on the sideline helped me a lot. Just telling me, ‘You’re good bro.’”

Within two minutes it was 27-all, and the crowd in Cincinnati ruled the place. With 42 seconds left, third-and-six at the Texans’ 29, Stroud had four plays, maybe five, to get into field-goal range. Play clock ticking.

In the huddle, Stroud did not sound 22 years old.

Stroud told me: “I just told them boys, ‘Let’s go win this game. We got everything we need in this huddle right here. Somebody make a play.’”

With the game on the line, you want to take four seconds to tell your guys you believe, so they should believe. That also means you’ve got to be quick at the line, and as the play clock wound down … :05, :04, :03 … Stroud urgently but not nervously clapped his hands four times to prod center Michael Deiter, “Snap it! Snap it now!” When Stroud got the ball, he waited, waited with calm feet and good protection till he saw tight end Dalton Schultz, running a seam route from the left slot, with his friend Taylor-Britt (Nebraska corner when Stroud was the Ohio State QB) in coverage.

Throw it high. Throw it high so Schultz, with a 6-inch advantage, could leap and get it but Taylor-Britt could never reach it.

The ball traveled 32 yards in the air, and it could not have been thrown to a more perfect location. This is what the Texans have noticed through nine games: The pressure, the moment, doesn’t get to this guy—he throws it in the game-deciding moments just like it’s practice. Like this throw … complete to the leaping Schultz to the Cincinnati 46-yard line. Two more completions got the Texans in place for a chippy 38-yard field goal by Matt Ammendola to win it, 30-27, at the gun.

“I made this game a little harder than it needed to be, turning it over [three times, uncharacteristically],” Stroud said. “But it in this league, it’s hard. It’s hard to get wins. We’re all good. Today, I loved the attention on us. Everybody’s watching to see if the Texans can come to a tough place and win. I love that. I love the attention. I love the pressure. That’s the thing about our team—I’m telling you, we don’t go into any game thinking we can’t win, we won’t win. I’m not made that way.”

Stroud’s ended two straight games with 75- and 55-yard drives to beat the Bucs and Bengals, respectively, in the final seconds. Who’d have thought the game of the year in this division would be Jags at Texans, Thanksgiving weekend, with more pressure on Jacksonville than Houston? That’s the sort of impact C.J. Stroud has made on the Houston Texans, and on the AFC playoff race.

Trust the Process

How do you watch Stroud play and think he either is a poor decision-maker or slow to process crucial information? When word leaked that he bombed the S-2 Cognition Test—which is supposed to measure the speed and smarts to process vital information quickly—a whisper campaign started against Stroud. No matter that the tape spoke chapters about Stroud, and in his five games against Michigan, Georgia and Michigan State in his last 13 months as a college player, he completed 73 percent of his throws for 377 yards and four TD passes a game. He was a bad “processor.”

On Friday of draft weekend, I went to Houston and talked to him about it. He wasn’t altogether bitter—just a little edgy about it. “The film speaks for itself,” he told me. “If you turn on the tape, you can see, you can answer the questions. I can process very, very fast. The film, you can see me going from first option to second and then back to one and then to three to four if I have to. I can check down. I can use my feet.

“But, you know, everything happens for a reason. I’m not upset. I’m actually blessed, I’m super blessed to be a Texan. Number two overall pick in the NFL draft, man. A little kid from the [California] Inland Empire. All smiles, man.”

This team was 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons. GM Nick Caserio settled on DeMeco Ryans as his coach and they agreed on Stroud as their quarterback of the future. “This is what life is about, working to build something good,” Stroud said when he was introduced to the Houston media and asked about going to a bad team.

It helped to surround Stroud with a coaching staff—including position coach Jerrod Johnson, senior assistant Shane Day and coordinator Bobby Slowik—who brought cutting-edge ideas to the Texans. “They’re so good at isolating matchups and attacking defenses like they haven’t been attacked very much,” said former longtime NFL backup quarterback Chase Daniel, who knows Slowik and played for Day with the Chargers the last two seasons. Daniel is working for the 33rd Team, NFL Network and The Athletic in his first year out of football.

That crucial throw to Dalton Schultz in Cincinnati in the last minute is a great example of that. The coaches know how accurate Stroud is, and they knew with Schultz’s height advantage downfield he’d win any competitive high ball, and he did. Stroud said he and Slowik have meshed well because, “we have open communication. There’s a lot of honesty. He trusts me and I trust him. That’s one of the biggest relationships that needs to be built with a quarterback, it’s been good. I know he trusts me to make plays.”

That throw to Schultz also illustrated one of Stroud’s strengths this year: downfield passing. He’s thrown for 1,513 yards on passes of more than 10 yards beyond the line, tops in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Even more impressive: Stroud leads all quarterbacks with 9.6 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, per Next Gen. (Brock Purdy, at 8.7 yards per attempt, is second.) Rookies usually struggle against blitzes while they’re getting their feet wet in the league. Not Stroud. No rookie in the eight years of Next Gen’s stat-keeping is within a yard of Stroud’s 9.6-yard performance.

Think of that and think of the “book” on Stroud entering the draft, and what poppycock it was. Blitzing forces quarterbacks to accelerate their thought processes and decision-making, obviously, and Stroud, as a rookie, is the best by far of any quarterback in the league—and 2.6 yards per attempt better than Patrick Mahomes.

And Stroud is ascending. He’s thrown for 826 yards in the past two weeks in wins over Tampa and Cincinnati. He’s thrown two interceptions, an NFL-low; his 2,626 passing yards is second in the league. “He’s a rookie quarterback putting up these numbers, and he doesn’t look or sound like a rookie quarterback in anything he does,” Daniel said. “He’s not playing well for a rookie—he’s playing well for any quarterback.”

Houston lost to Carolina, so Ryans won’t have any trouble getting his guys to take any team seriously. But the Texans, a game behind the Jags in the AFC South, do have a schedule edge in the last eight weeks. Five of their last eight games are home, including a three-game homestand (Cards, Jags, Broncos) starting Sunday. Their lone game against a division leader is the Jacksonville game, and Houston won their first matchup by 20 in September.

Every year, some team in the league shocks the world and plays like a top-10 team. That’s Houston right now. When’s the last time we thought Houston’s fun to watch? The Texans sure are now.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

QB MAC JONES threw a critical interception and was benched.  But then so did QB BAILEY ZAPPE, throw an interception that is.  Chad Graff of The Athletic:

The Patriots’ season went from bad to worse in a 10-6 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Frankfurt, Germany, as New England benched starter Mac Jones for Bailey Zappe in the final moments of the game. Here’s what you need to know:

Zappe, who last played in Week 5, entered the game with 1:52 remaining after Jones threw an interception near the end zone in the Patriots’ previous possession.

On second-and-12 with 4:24 left, the Patriots (2-8) looked poised to take the lead when Colts safety Julian Blackmon intercepted Jones’ pass on the 2-yard line.

The Colts (5-5) couldn’t capitalize on the pick and punted after a six-play, 41-yard drive. Their inability to score didn’t matter as Zappe threw a game-ending interception.

Tensions boiled over during the game as offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien yelled at Jones on the bench when they reviewed plays on a tablet in the third quarter. O’Brien’s outburst came after Jones couldn’t escape the pressure on third-and-3 and threw the ball to Rhamondre Stevenson for an incomplete pass.

Patriots lose trust in Mac Jones

The Patriots have lost trust in Jones. When they got the ball back with one final chance to mount a game-winning drive, they benched their three-year starting quarterback in favor of Zappe. The Patriots’ offense these days is based on running the ball and short quick passes to their running backs. That’s not good enough in today’s NFL.

Jones’ final numbers don’t look horrible (15-of-20 for 170 yards and one interception) but he handled pressure terribly on this day (he took five sacks) and made some head-scratching decisions that could’ve resulted in more interceptions had the Colts not dropped them. He was picked off in the red zone when the Patriots were 15 yards from a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter with one of the worst throws of the entire season — among any quarterback. The second half of the season is largely about seeing what the Patriots have in Jones, and this one wasn’t a good start. — Chad Graff, Patriots staff writer

Examining Bill Belichick’s status

Patriots owner Robert Kraft sat next to his son Jonathan in a suite in Frankfurt, watching his once-dominant team slog through another boring loss. Bill Belichick, the coach he’s employed for 24 years, now has the Patriots at 2-8 on the season. If this were any other coach with any other résumé, this might be the time to make a move, potentially firing the coach as the team enters the bye week.

That probably won’t happen, not with Belichick after everything he’s done for the Patriots. But a big decision looms after the season and games like Sunday’s are evidence that the Patriots might need to make some changes. — Graff

NEW YORK JETS

Peter King calls for a QB Regime Change:

I can’t think of anything more offensively inept in all the time I’ve covered the NFL than this: In the last four-and-a-third games for the Jets (games against Vegas, the Chargers, the Giants, Philadelphia, and the last 20 minutes of the Denver game), the Jets have had 55 possessions. They have scored two offensive touchdowns. Both have come on one-play drives. The Eagles laid down strategically to let Breece Hall score an 8-yard rushing TD in Week 6. Zach Wilson hit Hall on a pop pass for a 50-yard TD against the Giants in Week 8.

The rest of the 53 drives in 17 quarters-plus? No touchdowns.

I know why Robert Saleh and the Jets have fervently and consistently defended Wilson for the last couple of months. They figure if they bench Wilson, he’s finished. And they want him to benefit from an extended time being mentored by Aaron Rodgers, which is logical. But the problem in not going to either of the backups, Tim Boyle or Trevor Siemian, is that you’ve got a team to face. If the other 21 starters play at Wilson’s level, they get benched. It’d be an understandable double-standard if Wilson showed promise … if, say, he got the team into the end zone inside the two-minute warning at Vegas Sunday night instead of throwing a pass into the hands of Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane to lose the game.

With games against Buffalo and Miami coming in a six-day span next week, and the Jets 4-5, it’s Pollyannaish to continue to hope Wilson’s going to see the light. He might, but he’s almost certainly not going to. The best chance to win must-games coming up is by energizing the team with a quarterback change. It’s time.

THIS AND THAT

2024 DRAFT

Mike Sando of The Athletic on the race downhill for the first overall pick:

The race for the first pick in the 2024 NFL draft is on.

The stakes are high, not simply because so many football people see quarterback Caleb Williams as a franchise-altering talent, despite USC’s struggles. The stakes also are high because Williams could be coveted enough for any team with the first pick to more seriously consider synching his arrival with a full franchise reset, rather than trusting him to regimes with serious question marks.

The Pick Six column for Week 10 leads by asking the biggest questions for the teams in the best position to emerge atop the draft order. The Chicago Bears, New York Giants and New England Patriots are those teams, thanks to the Bears owning Carolina’s pick. Kyler Murray’s return to Arizona’s lineup might drop the Cardinals from this conversation, but they are included until Murray shows staying power.

1. The race for the first pick in the 2024 draft is on, with massive implications for the franchises in the running.

The current draft order shows Carolina at the top. The Panthers’ pick belongs to the Bears, who also sit fifth in the order with their own selection.

Five three-win teams are not listed because none appears likely to land the top pick: Green Bay Packers (3-6), Los Angeles Rams (3-6), Tennessee Titans (3-6) and Denver Broncos (3-5).

1  Carolina Panthers           1-8 

2  New York Giants            2-8

3  Arizona Cardinals          2-8

4  New England Patriots    2-8

5  Chicago Bears               3-7

Evaluators I trust see Williams as talented enough to compel the Bears, Giants, Patriots and Cardinals to draft him regardless of their own incumbent quarterbacks. Among those evaluators is my Football GM Podcast co-host Randy Mueller, who watched Williams in person against Oregon on Saturday.

Bears: Coach Matt Eberflus appears to be doing a solid job with Chicago’s defense since taking over play-calling duties, which normally might be enough for ownership to give him a third season. But if the Bears finish strong and still land the top pick via Carolina, can Eberflus sell ownership on a development/support plan for a quarterback of Williams’ standing?

Some of the most successful long-term relationships between championship-winning teams and their quarterbacks involved defensive-minded head coaches: Tom Brady with Bill Belichick, Ben Roethlisberger with Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson and John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco. But it takes a master coach to build the programs Belichick, Cowher, Tomlin, Carroll and Harbaugh built.

The team under Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has struggled to develop and support Justin Fields. Will ownership be willing to entrust Williams to one or both?

If not, is the second-year GM who helped to hire Eberflus the right person to pick the next coach? Ryan Poles executed the trade that landed all those picks from Carolina, so ideally he’d get a chance to turn those picks into players. But he already decided to keep Fields when he could have selected C.J. Stroud, who has instantly turned the long-suffering Houston Texans into a better team than Chicago has fielded recently.

If Eberflus returns, the situation could loosely resemble Cleveland in 2018. The Browns had gone 1-31 in Hue Jackson’s first two seasons. They brought him back and entrusted first-overall pick Baker Mayfield to him. The team then fired Jackson eight games into Mayfield’s rookie season. Eberflus has been better than 1-31, but he does have a franchise-worst 14-game losing streak on his résumé, and no team has a worse record than the Bears’ 6-21 mark since Eberflus took over.

Unlike the other teams on this list, the Bears can win as much as possible to improve their standing while still emerging with the top pick. They can thank the Panthers for that.

“Where does it get better for Carolina?” an exec asked. “They made the move at coordinator. They had their bye, and they got their one win. Who are they beating? Carolina’s best chance to win might be if the Red Rocket (Andy Dalton) gets back in there. I’ll give them two wins on the season. Do the Giants have more than two by the end of this?”

Giants: Daniel Jones has a fully guaranteed $35.5 million salary for 2024, but as one NFL team exec put it, “Who cares?” The Giants could hold onto Jones for a year and even start him for however many games they thought Williams might benefit from watching. But under no circumstance could they keep the status quo, no matter how much they invested in Jones.

The bigger question is whether this Giants season can devolve to the point where ownership could consider a coaching change or more.

Brian Daboll, like Carolina’s Frank Reich, is 4-15-1 in his past 20 games, counting playoffs. The Giants went 0-for-12 on third down in their 49-17 defeat to Dallas on Sunday. Tommy DeVito passed for 86 yards on 27 attempts, only the 39th time since 1970 a quarterback had so few yards on so many attempts, per Pro Football Reference. Afterward, Daboll committed to DeVito as the starter next week.

Daboll owns 11 victories in his two seasons, more than previous Giants coaches Joe Judge (10) and Pat Shurmur (nine) had when they were fired after two seasons. Ben McAdoo went 11-5 in his first season, then 2-10 in his second, which precipitated his firing with three games to play.

The chart below compares the cumulative game-by-game point differentials for the current Giants to those for the second seasons of Judge, Shurmur and McAdoo, who failed to return for third seasons. The 2023 team is on a far worse pace than those others, but if Daboll has additional equity with ownership after being named Coach of the Year last season, he could be on firmer ground.

Patriots: Belichick is a Hall of Fame coach, but it’s getting tougher to make a case for asking him to implement a plan for Williams. Belichick bucked convention with his hiring of offensive coaches in 2022 and was criticized for it even before the disastrous results that followed. He has failed to arm Mac Jones with sufficient weaponry. This was obvious at the time and remains obvious now.

“(Offensive coordinator) Bill O’Brien is qualified to develop the quarterback and call the plays, but in order for these guys to get into a flow, Bill (Belichick) may have to relent on overriding the play calls, which he obviously does,” a coach from another team said, citing examples when New England played conservatively in two-minute situations. “It’s not better when you have a play caller and a quarterback coach and assistant quarterback coach and senior offensive adviser like Carolina has. I just think Bill’s overrides are an issue.”

Who is telling Belichick to loosen the reins?

It once would have seemed unfathomable for New England to land the first pick. It still appears unlikely, especially with the Giants on the schedule in Week 12. If it happens, owner Robert Kraft cannot plausibly subject Williams to what Jones has endured. Could Kraft use the opportunity to land Williams as leverage for coaxing concessions from Belichick that the coach would otherwise never consider?

Belichick runs all aspects of the Patriots’ football operation. It’s unrealistic to think he would work under a general manager or be forced to go outside the Patriot Way gene pool when hiring offensive coaches. It seems more likely Kraft and Belichick would reach the point Andy Reid reached in Philadelphia more than a decade ago. In this case, a divorce could include trading Belichick to another franchise or some other way out.

Cardinals: If the Cardinals wind up with the top pick, it means something went awry with Murray from health and/or performance standpoints. Would ownership allow the team’s decision-makers to eat some or all of Murray’s massive contract to draft Williams? If not, imagine how much draft capital Arizona could amass by trading the top pick. The team already owns Houston’s 2024 first-, third- and fifth-round picks, plus Tennessee’s third, plus a fifth from Philadelphia, plus its own picks in the first five rounds.

The better Murray plays, the more tradable his massive contract might become, but the less likely the Cardinals would be to own the top pick. Murray returned Sunday and appeared quick while rushing six times for 33 yards as Arizona pulled out a 25-23 victory against the Atlanta Falcons with big assists from their special teams.

The worst-case scenario for Arizona would be for Murray to play just well enough to take Williams off the table, but not well enough for the Cardinals to feel great about his future.