The Daily Briefing Monday, November 14, 2022
THE DAILY BRIEFING
If The Season Ended Today – here’s how things shake out in the AFC through Week 10:
W-L Div Seed Conf Kansas City West 7-2 1 4-2 Miami East 7-3 1 5-2 Tennessee South 6-3 1 5-2 Baltimore North 6-3 1 4-2 NY Jets WC1 6-3 2 5-3 Buffalo WC2 6-3 3 4-2 New England WC3 5-4 4 4-2 LA Chargers 5-4 2 4-2 Cincinnati 5-4 2 2-3 Indianapolis 4-5-1 2 4-4-1
With the Vikings thrilling victory in Buffalo, the Bills tumble from the top of the AFC all the way to the 6th seed. The Chiefs move up one into 1st while the Dolphins fly from 6th to 2nd.
The Chargers loss at SF, moves New England barely into the playoffs as the winner of a three-way tiebreaker. At the moment, all four AFC East teams have a winning record and a playoff berth.
We looked at the AFC East to try to break down if it can continue. Will they knock each other off? Well, five of the 12 division games have been played with the Patriots and Bills the only teams that have not met each other. Their first meeting is not until Week 13 in Foxborough.
The AFC East teams are therefore – 5-5 in division, 13-4 against the rest of the AFC and 6-4 against the NFC. Much of the AFC competition is against the AFC North. Much of the NFC competition is against the NFC North.
Div Conf NFC Miami 2-1 3-1 2-1 NY Jets 2-1 3-2 1-0 Buffalo 0-2 4-0 2-1 New England 1-1 3-1 1-2 – – – Who had the two New York teams at a combined 13-5 in mid-November.
The 7-2 Giants have won more games in 2022 than they did in the entirety of any of their previous five seasons.
The 6-3 Jets have won more games in 2022 than they did in the entirety of 5 of their previous 6 seasons (they were 7-9 in 2019 under Adam Gase!).
NFC NORTH
CHICAGO Even in defeat, Conor Orr of SI.com admits he was wrong about QB JUSTIN FIELDS and the Bears:
TO: Ryan Poles, Matt Eberflus FROM: Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated SUBJECT: My bad
Hello gentlemen,
In case my email automatically got filtered into a spam folder called “ignore this person who doesn’t understand football” I’ve decided to reprint it here. Hello, I’m the guy who wrote this offseason about how Justin Fields should consider demanding trade.
I would like you to know that I am aware I was wrong.
Colts owner Jim Irsay said a lot of stuff one might consider distant from reality during Jeff Saturday’s introductory press conference last week, but he did ask a reporter rhetorically whether his or her editor would ever fire them for getting something wrong, and it got me thinking. While I would guess my wonderful bosses wouldn’t kick me to the curb for missing on something like this (we get paid at the end of the month, so I’ll keep you posted), it’s worth our time to talk about accountability in modern media and being able to say I was wrong.
So, in the moments following Week 10’s 31–30 loss to the Lions, which came down to a missed extra point, I’m prepared to take my medicine. Fields, as you probably know, rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns, along with his 167 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air. Last week, he scored four total touchdowns—three passing, one rushing—amassing more than 300 yards of total offense, including an NFL record for rushing yards by a QB in a regular-season game.
Knowing during his rookie season that Fields had the potential for what he has become in 2022, but watching it get squandered irresponsibly under the franchise’s previous regime, propelled me toward a soap box. The shedding of veterans such as Khalil Mack got me up on the thing and the failure to add weapons around him during the offseason put the megaphone in my hand. This was a strange time in the league, if you can remember. Urban Meyer nearly firebombed Trevor Lawrence’s career. Tua Tagovailoa was hung out to dry by the Dolphins before the hiring of Mike McDaniel. Folks were playing Monopoly with talented young people and then leaving them to carry around the “bust” label like a scarlet letter without accepting some of the blame.
Here’s what I didn’t see coming:
• Perhaps letting go of Allen Robinson, who has a career low yards per target with the Rams, was a net positive. Not that Robinson is a bad player now, but not spending irresponsibly at the top of the receiver market, and instead forcing some of your younger players to develop, was a better play than hanging on to the remaining prime of a receiver. So, too, was adding Chase Claypool and getting a feel for how to use him before committing significant cap dollars.
• Perhaps you saw the talent you had on the offensive line that we didn’t see. While PFF is not a perfect measure for offensive line talent, Teven Jenkins, when kicked inside to guard, is playing just as good, if not better, than James Daniels.
• Perhaps you knew that you could get a starting left tackle in the fifth round of the draft. Braxton Jones, my goodness, is talented. He is also perfectly suited for this beautiful, maddening rushing offense. You almost certainly knew that Chris Morgan and Austin King, the offensive line coaches, were going to maximize the unit. Larry Borom and Sam Mustipher have both gotten better.
I didn’t see some of the wild ways in which you could spring Fields out of the backfield, and to be fair, neither did anyone in the NFL. Fields will end up starting next season as one of the 10 best quarterbacks in football. The little sneak route from Cole Kmet that was attached to the zone read which sprang Fields for a 67-yard touchdown against the Lions on Sunday was an absolute chef’s kiss. In Week 8 against the Cowboys, some of the ways in which you invited Micah Parsons upfield only to smash him blind side with a pulling tight end or tackle, creating massive gaps to run through, were worthy of a slow-motion-highlight Oscar.
Back to accountability for a second: What happens when we get something wrong? Well, nothing, really. We get a few people using the clown emoji on Twitter, but Twitter is going away at some point because of a similar inability to admit fault and recognize a blind spot in awareness. Thankfully, my pieces worthy of Old Takes Exposed caused a little less societal harm. I’ll do my best to make this a walk of shame.
The important thing is that football columnists learn from the experience. Trimming the fat on a roster doesn’t have to mean the team is tanking. Not spending money doesn’t have to mean alienating a quarterback. Coaches and GMs deserve a longer runway to prove that they have everyone’s best interest in mind (at least a little longer than 45 minutes into their first offseason).
Anyway, you’re probably busy getting ready for the Falcons next week. But you’re doing so in an entirely different space than the one I’d envisioned. Sure, the team is 3–7. But Fields is a game plan focal point, not something that is being hidden, abused or squandered. He is appointment viewing. He is someone we can talk about in a future tense without introducing some level of skepticism. From all of us who worried he might not be in the environment you built around him, all we can say is thanks.
Cheers, Conor
DETROIT CB JEFF OKUDAH was a big factor in Detroit’s win. Christian Booher at Fan Nation:
For the first time in the Dan Campbell era, the Detroit Lions have won back-to-back games.
Detroit traveled to Chicago Sunday, and after falling behind early, rallied to secure an improbable win over the Bears. The Lions outscored Chicago, 21-6, in the fourth quarter to earn a 31-30 win. It gave Campbell his first road win as head coach.
The Lions will take on the New York Giants next Sunday.
STUD: CB Jeff Okudah Okudah’s upward trajectory continued Sunday, as he made perhaps the biggest play of his career.
Trailing, 24-17, early in the fourth quarter, the Ohio State product picked off a short pass from Fields, and raced 21 yards to score and tie the game.
Okudah finished with just one tackle, but showed his expertise against the run while notching two pass deflections. His performance this season has been headlined by Sunday’s pick-six and a 15-tackle performance against Dallas.
GREEN BAY All was not happiness on Sunday as the Packers pulled out an overtime thriller. Tyler Sullivan of ESPN.com
The Packers gutted out a much-needed win against Dallas Cowboys as the 31-28 overtime victory snapped the club’s five-game losing skid. While Aaron Rodgers was able to help move the offense down the field to set up the game-winning field goal in overtime, this win didn’t come without the quarterback briefly butting heads with coach Matt LaFleur.
With less than two minutes left to go in regulation, the Packers defense was able to force a three-and-out by the Cowboys and gave their offense the ball back at their own 33-yard line with a chance to win the game. After two running plays brought them to a third-and-1 situation at their 42-yard line, Green Bay called a timeout and LaFleur proceeded to call a pass play, which fell incomplete.
After that play, Rodgers was seen expressing his frustration to LaFleur about his decision to pass the football instead of running it. Had they kept the ball on the ground, they likely would have had a better chance of not only moving the chains but it wouldn’t have stopped the clock giving Dallas time to possibly go down the field and win it for themselves.
“I felt like we were about 30 yards from ending the game in regulation,” Rodgers said after the game, via PackersNews.com, “and also felt like it was 2-minute, so I was going to be calling those. And I was in a pretty good rhythm. Obviously, didn’t have a ton of attempts tonight, but I felt like I was in a pretty good rhythm. I felt like I threw the ball just about exactly where I wanted to tonight, and I wanted a chance to go win the game.”
While Rodgers’ displeasure with that play call was evident in that clip, he and LaFleur were seen working on play calls together on the sideline immediately after and it didn’t seem like either held too much of a grudge whatsoever.
“They had three timeouts, and I knew we needed like 30-some-odd-yards to potentially get into field-goal range,” LaFleur said. “So we were calling these run-pass cans, and if we got the look for the pass, we were going to call the pass. We ran it on first down and then ran it on second down, and then on third down they played it well. We tried to take a shot play again, another run-pass can, and it didn’t work out – at least in that moment. But it did work out, obviously, for us to come out on top.
“A lot of times when we get in those situations, we give Aaron the freedom to run the show. And I’d say typically, he does such a great job with it. So, you know, hindsight is 20-20, but that was on me totally.The decision also didn’t prove fatal either as the Cowboys were only able to travel 19 yards on that ensuring possession before the end of regulation.
In overtime, the Green Bay defense stopped the Dallas offense after Mike McCarthy made a questionable decision himself by opting to keep his offense on the field and go for it on a fourth-and-3 try from the Packers’ 35-yard line. Dak Prescott’s pass fell incomplete, the Packers gained possession and Rodgers led the offense 55 yards down the field to set up Mason Crosby’s game-winning field goal.
The good news was that WR CHRISTIAN WATSON broke out after a struggling start to his career. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
Watson‘s start to Sunday’s game against the Cowboys felt like another chapter in an unhappy rookie season, but he and the team were able to turn things around.
Watson opened his NFL career by dropping a would-be touchdown against the Vikings and he had two more drops early in Sunday’s game to add to the misery that the Packers have experienced this season. Watson’s day would get much better, however.
Watson caught a 58-yard touchdown from Aaron Rodgers to get the Packers on the scoreboard and then added two more touchdowns in the second half of a 31-28 overtime victory. Head coach Matt LaFleur said “the resiliency that he showed” was a microcosm of the fight that the team showed in ending their losing streak and Rodgers thought the touchdowns were an exorcism of sorts for the second-round pick.
“We had a lot of plays designed for him, so I don’t think there was any other option,” Rodgers said, via Jason Wilde of the Wisconsin State Journal. “I think that [first touchdown] probably on the atomic level shifted a lot of different things for him, exorcising some energetic demons. I’m proud of him. He made some plays.”
Sunday’s win didn’t erase all that’s gone wrong for the Packers this season, but it leaves them with a 4-6 record and gives them a chance to work their way back up the standings. More outings like this one for Watson would boost their chances of going on that kind of run.
MINNESOTA Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on how the Vikings converted a miraculous 4th-and-18:
Every great catch begins with a throw. Sometimes the throw is great. Sometimes it’s just a desperation heave-ho.
Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson made the catch of a lifetime on Sunday in Buffalo. A blend of David Tyree in Super Bowl XLII and OBJ on SNF with a dash of Jermaine Kearse in Super Bowl XLIV. After the game, Jefferson explained to Peter King of Football Morning in America that the play began with a wing and a prayer from quarterback Kirk Cousins.
“Before we left the huddle,” Jefferson said of the fourth and 18 play with the game on the line, “Kirk said to me, ‘Hey, I might just throw this up to you.’ Kirk knew. We just needed to make something happen.”
And they did. To his credit, Cousins trusted Jefferson with a throw that was in the vicinity. To his credit, Jefferson made a catch that defies physics or logic.
“I felt how close [cornerback Cam Lewis] was,” Jefferson said. “I knew it was going to be a battle for the ball. On plays like that, I don’t remember exactly what happened. But I’m going up, I’m going to fight for the ball. That’s my ball. Since ninth grade, those are the balls I think I should catch. I’m just happy Kirk trusted me and put the ball up for me to catch.”
The Jefferson catch came on the same day former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs had made an impressive, one-handed snare earlier in the game. Jefferson is the guy the Vikings got to replace Diggs. Jefferson has become everything that Vikings ever could have hoped he’d be, and then some.
With plays like yesterday’s, Jefferson may help the Vikings get to a level they haven’t enjoyed since 1976. Overlooked in the team’s 0-4 futility in the Super Bowl is that, since losing Super Bowl XI to the Raiders, the Vikings are 0-7 in the NFC Championship.
All the stats point to Buffalo win, but the Vikings recovered all four of the game’s fumbles. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders:
@FO_ASchatz Buffalo had a 98.6% Post-Game Win Expectancy yesterday. Based on the stat splits of the game, we would expect Buffalo to win over 98% of the time.
Bills: 6.75 yd/play, 55% suc rate. Vikings: 6.18 yd/play, 41% suc rate. Vikings recovered all 4 fumbles.
#Skol #BillsMafia Based on Post-Game Win Expectancy, Minnesota’s win yesterday was the third-biggest “surprise” win since 2010, trailing only a 2013 Jaguars-Titans game and the Week 2 Dolphins-Ravens game.
NFC EAST
DALLAS Peter King has found the reason the Cowboys don’t reverse the workload between RBs EZEKIEL ELLIOTT and TONY POLLARD:
I think I don’t mind admitting I was wrong about something. And I was wrong about Tony Pollard, and how he should be the Cowboys’ top back over Ezekiel Elliott.
I think a smart Cowboys beat writer, Jon Machota, proved me wrong—with the help of Dallas running backs coach Skip Peete—about Pollard. Peete told Machota that, when Pollard started for an injured Elliott against Chicago two weeks ago, Pollard ran for a 54-yard TD in the fourth quarter and came to the sideline and told the coach: “Coach, I’m done. Done for the game.” As Peete said: “Some guys are race cars, some guys are high-quality, expensive sedans. Those sedans can go forever and for a long distance, at a very high rate, where race cars go very fast and quick and then they run out of gas.” Good work by Machota, answering a question that a lot of people surely had about Cowboys’ running-back playing time. – – – Even as he calls Mike McCarthy a Week 10 Loser, Frank Schwab of YahooSports.comhas to admit he can’t say he made the wrong call in overtime:
LOSERS Mike McCarthy: When coaching decisions don’t work, the decision gets criticized. That’s unfair but it’s how it goes.
McCarthy will have questions to answer after the Dallas Cowboys’ 31-28 loss to the Green Bay Packers. In overtime, McCarthy passed on a 53-yard field-goal attempt to go for it on fourth-and-3. Dak Prescott was pressured, threw it incomplete, and the Packers drove downfield for the game-winning field goal.
It wasn’t necessarily the wrong call by McCarthy to go for it, but it led to a loss. It had to sting more for McCarthy to lose to the Packers. He was pushed out in Green Bay after many good years there, and came back Sunday with the better team.
The Cowboys (6-3) had a 28-14 lead in the fourth quarter. They couldn’t hold onto it. There were a lot of reasons for the loss. McCarthy’s overtime decision will be the one that gets the most attention.
What were PK BRETT MAHER’s chances of a FG from 53? He’s 4-for-6 on the year from 50+. This is outdoors, not sure about the wind. Let’s say 60%. If he misses, the Packers get the ball at the 43 with probably an 80% chance they get the winning FG. If he makes it, what are the chances Green Bay drives for the tying FG or the winning TD? Pretty good the way the Packers offense closed – 30% for winning TD, 40% for FG?
What are the Cowboys to make a 4th-and-3? We would think around Maher’s 60%. Now the winning TD isn’t assured, but a more sure FG and less time for Green Bay would be a positive from the Dallas viewpoint.
When they failed, the Packers get the ball at the 35 and probably the 75-80% chance of the winning FG that they did, in fact, convert.
So the chance of failure is about the same with the same consequence. If successful, would you rather have the ball with 6 minutes left, 1st and 10 at the 32, and the winning TD still in play? Or with the 3-point lead and Aaron Rodgers with 6 minutes to tie or win?
Boy, that’s a close call.
NFC WEST
ARIZONA Is it possible that QB COLT McCOY is a better fit for the 2022 Cardinals than highly-paid, unique talent, moody QB KYLER MURRAY? Greg Moore of the Arizona Republic:
There is no quarterback controversy after the Arizona Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Rams 27-17 at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
It’s Colt McCoy’s job to lose.
“As a backup, you never know when your opportunity is going to strike,” McCoy said. “Quite honestly, I want (Kyler Murray) to be healthy. He’s a phenomenal player. But in this situation, with linemen out, our backs against the wall, a division game on the road … I dug deep and was proud to go out there and play as hard as I can.”
I’m not saying this lightly.
Kyler Murray is the most talented athlete I’ve ever been around. If he had come up 20 years ago, he’d be a two-sport guy like Deion Sanders or Bo Jackson.
Murray is the most electrifying, most elusive, most exciting runner I’ve seen. It’s like he’s Reggie Bush and the rest of the NFL is Fresno State.
And he’s so accurate that he should have his own skin of Fortnite for players who get wins with a sniper rifle.
But the team played better for McCoy, and if Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim want to save their jobs and make the playoffs, they’ll make sure that Murray takes all the time he needs to heal from that tweaked hamstring.
For the sake of the franchise, let’s all hope Murray is learning as he rehabs.
Intangibles matter in the NFL.
Players know when they need to focus more. They see who shows up early and stays late. And they know who communicates a game plan most effectively.
McCoy is not as talented as Murray. Never has been. Never will be. But he knows his strengths.
Like last year when Chandler Jones wasn’t making any plays. McCoy pulled Jones aside and said (and I’m paraphrasing here): “Hey, I don’t know you that well, and I don’t mean to say something out of line. But you’re Chandler Stinkin’ Jones. It looks like you’re thinking out there on the field. You should just remember that you’re one of the best ever and go play your game. Just go be yourself.”
Jones ended up with a pair of sacks in helping lead the Cardinals to a win.
That kind of motivation can go further than you might think if you’re an offensive lineman who has to go up against Aaron Donald and one of the most fearsome pass rushes of all time.
“I just tried to preach all week long that they’ve got the best player in the game out there on defense,” McCoy said after the game. “They’re a very good pass rush, and if the ball doesn’t come out on time, in rhythm, we’re not going to win the game.
“The execution side of what we did offensively worked. There’s a lot that played into it. I thought the offensive line did an outstanding job … I was playing with four guys I’ve never played with before. I just wanted to take care of them. They took care of me and played outstanding.”
McCoy is hurt, too. We don’t know if it’s a knee or a hamstring or a cramp. But if he can walk, the Cardinals should start him against San Francisco in Mexico City.
Murray has to learn to help other guys relax, settle down and play their best ball.
And Murray has to learn to do things the easy way, like when McCoy found AJ Green on fourth-and-2 on Arizona’s first drive.
“I liked the matchup,” McCoy said. “I had (DeAndre Hopkins) on the frontside. But to me, it felt like the grocery store line: ‘If more people are over there, let’s throw it over here.’ I trust AJ … big-time play by him.”
The players I spoke with insist they can play to this level with Murray in the lineup, and maybe that’s true. We just haven’t seen it this season.
And this shouldn’t be considered a permanent move.
But for the next couple of weeks, this is McCoy’s job to lose.
His intangibles can get the Cardinals in position for the playoffs.
By taking time to learn those intangibles, Murray can get ready to help the franchise win a Super Bowl.
AFC WEST
LAS VEGAS QB DEREK CARR was emotional after the latest Raiders loss. SI.com”
“I love Josh. I love our coaches. They’ve had nothing but success, way more success than I ever have,” Carr said as he fought back tears. ”I’m sorry for being emotional. I’m just pissed off about some of the things that a lot of us try to do just to practice, what we put our bodies through just to sleep at night. And for that to be the result of all that effort, it pisses me off.”
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE Brandon Marshall is all in on the 2022 Ravens:
The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the league, and it’s not even close. This may be the best Baltimore Ravens team we’ve ever seen.
AFC SOUTH
INDIANAPOLIS Peter King converses with Jeff Saturday after his improbable win – and Saturday confronts the haters with love:
The week started with the Saturday family at church and relaxing in Georgia. The week ended with Saturday winning his first game as an NFL head coach. We spoke as the Colts’ bus was on the way to the airport in Las Vegas after the 25-20 victory over the Raiders.
A week ago tonight, what were you doing?
Saturday: “I was leaving Monday morning for ESPN, and so I was actually at home … Jim [Irsay] called me and just said, ‘Hey, will you talk to Karen about this? See if you’d be willing to do it?’ He was gonna talk to [GM] Chris Ballard and have the conversation with him. Anyway, I talked to my wife that night.”
What did she think? That it was insane?
Saturday: “She did. Our family motto is, ‘If life isn’t an adventure, it’s not worth living.’ We want an adventure in our life. We teach our kids that. I told her, listen, I’ve been around this game for 25 years, playing, coaching and even more from the media. I’ve never heard of a player having the opportunity to go be a head coach. First of all, I would want it because I love this organization. I care about not only the players and coaches but the organization, right? My adulthood was forged here. It is my home. Indianapolis totally changed the direction of our lives. So how do you say no to this? So I said I’m gonna do it.”
Bill Cowher said this is a disgrace to the coaching profession. When you hear things like that, what do you think?
Saturday: “I respect his opinion, you know? Here’s the thing. God is my defender, man. I don’t have to defend myself. I am absolutely comfortable in who I am. I respect all those guys. Whoever has whatever negative opinion, I can assure you, it’s not gonna change who I am or what I believe I’m called to do. I have no idea, and I still don’t, how successful I’ll be, but we’re gonna work hard at it and I believe I can lead men and lead the staff. I’m excited about the opportunity.”
Joe Thomas said of the hire: ‘When you hire your drinking buddy to be the head coach of an NFL team, it’s disrespectful.’ Thoughts?
Saturday: “I had no idea that he said that. I can assure you, I have never gone drinking with Jim. I don’t even know that Jim drinks. I don’t drink very much either. I don’t know Joe. I’m not worried about what Joe thinks about me or anybody else. Like I told you, the Lord will defend. I feel like I’ve been called to do it, so I made the decision to do it. Again, no disrespect to either of those men. They are who they are and said what they said. It will not sway me.”
Do you think we should think of the coaching profession differently?
Saturday: “Yes. Part of the reason why I did accept the job is for that exact reason. I hope that many other former players will get opportunities like I’m getting. I was at ESPN when Aaron Boone was there and then two days later he’s the manager of the Yankees. And basketball right? I’ve watched all these guys get these opportunities. Like I told the team, my leadership is the number one quality. I’ve talked to Tony Dungy, I’ve talked to Jim Caldwell. Those were the two men who led me the most. Both told me to drive into who I was as a player, as a leader of men during those times. Lean on those things that you’re extremely good at. And that’s uniting people. I told the staff and I told the players, my job is to empower them to be the best they can be.
I don’t pretend to be the smartest coach on the staff. I don’t pretend to be something I’m not. I know football. I’m passionate about football. I study the game. But I will trust the men and empower those men to do the things that they know that they’re called to do. And that’s the job man. That’s the job in my opinion. To this point, that’s been what I have been. I would never minimize how important all of the coaches on the staff are. How hard these guys work, man. The hours they put in and the ideas that they bring.”
What was it like, going from sitting at home in Georgia one Sunday to coaching on the sidelines the next Sunday in the NFL?
Saturday: “Oh, it was awesome. I enjoyed it. I looked up and laughed a lot. Talked to coaches during breaks. I wanted to make sure I didn’t miss the moment. But you know what’s crazy? From a player perspective, games don’t feel nearly that fast. Like I literally remember looking up, going, oh my, the game’s already halfway over. Then I blink and the third quarter’s over. I’m like, I think it was two drives. Wow! From a player’s perspective when you’re in it physically, the time of it feels so different. Coaching, I blinked and it was like, we’re in the fourth quarter and it’s time to go. It was awesome man.”
We were starting to get excited about what Saturday might be able to accomplish with the now 4-5-1 – but then we looked at the upcoming schedule (including 3 primetime games, only one of which can be moved):
November 20 Philadelphia November 28 Pittsburgh (Monday night) December 4 @ Dallas (Sunday night) Bye December 18 @ Minnesota December 26 LA Chargers (Monday night) January 1 @ NY Giants January 8 Houston
Only one AFC South game left. Pittsburgh and Houston are winnable. Philadelphia, Dallas and Minnesota – let’s call them losses for this exercise. So that’s 6-8-1 with the Chargers and Giants being possible. AFC EAST
BUFFALO Peter King fingers the replay official who let the Bills move closer for their tying field goal.
Hidden person of the week
Kevin Stine, replay official, Minnesota-Buffalo. What happened Sunday in Buffalo doesn’t bode well for Stine. His faux pas didn’t determine the winner in the game, but it very well could have. Buffalo was down 30-27 with 24 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and Josh Allen threw deep down the left sideline for Gabe Davis, who dove and, officials ruled, caught it while falling out of bounds. It was close, but it should have been incomplete—Davis was lightly juggling the ball as he fell to earth. And senior VP of officiating Walt Anderson agreed in a pool report: “Even though it happens fast, Buffalo hurries to the line of scrimmage for the next play,” Anderson said. “If the replay official can’t confirm it was a catch on that long of a completed pass, we should stop play to ensure it is a catch. I’ll have to find out from the replay official exactly what he didn’t feel like he saw to stop the game.” Uh-oh. Gonna be a bad week for Kevin Stine.
We can understand why NFL replay officials might be loath to stop a tight, late game with a running clock and no timeouts for competitive reasons – but Davis was out of bounds, the clock was stopped… – – – Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the slippage of QB JOSH ALLEN in the MVP race:
Not long ago, Josh Allen was the heavy favorite to win NFL MVP. The Buffalo Bills quarterback had minus odds to win.
Allen isn’t even in the top three of the MVP race after Sunday. The Bills lost their second straight game, and Allen threw a game-ending interception in overtime. That pushed him down the MVP odds, and Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa replaced him in the top three.
If anything, Allen’s dip (and Tagovailoa’s rapid rise) show that the NFL MVP market changes fast. Allen could get back in the race. For those who bet on the Bills QB to win his first MVP — Allen has the second-most MVP bets behind Russell Wilson — there’s still hope. But he needs to turn around fast.
Current NFL MVP odds Here are the updated MVP odds from BetMGM:
Patrick Mahomes +130 Jalen Hurts +375 Tua Tagovailoa +400 Josh Allen +550 Lamar Jackson +1200
Practically speaking it’s a five-man race. Everyone else is 25-to-1 or longer.
Mahomes is the clear favorite and rightfully so. He has been the best player in the league to this point in the season and the Kansas City Chiefs are now in good position to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC after the Bills’ two-game losing streak. Jalen Hurts isn’t out of it, though the 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles need to keep winning big to keep him in the race.
Tagovailoa is interesting. He’s putting up numbers. The Dolphins are 7-0 in games he starts and finishes. His MVP odds were 80-to-1 before kickoff of Week 9, and have changed in a stunning way since then. Jackson also can’t be ruled out, especially with the Baltimore Ravens getting hot.
But the most significant news is Allen slipping, after he was way out in front of everyone just a couple weeks ago.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills had a couple more interceptions in a loss to the Vikings. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images) Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills had a couple more interceptions in a loss to the Vikings. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images) Can Josh Allen get back in the race? The compelling figure in the race is still Allen. While the Wilson MVP tickets are totally dead, the 15.1 percent of MVP tickets on Allen at BetMGM still have a glimmer of hope. But it’s getting harder to make a case for Allen winning it.
Allen leads the NFL in interceptions, with 10. He’s also averaging 303.7 yards per game, 52.9 rushing yards per game and has 20 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns. If Allen played nearly mistake-free football for the rest of the season while keeping up his production and the Bills got hot and beat out the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, he’d have a chance. But it needs to start right away and he still probably needs Mahomes to slip a bit. If Mahomes continues at this level all season, he’ll win the award.
For a while it looked like there wouldn’t be much suspense in the MVP race because Allen would run away with it. Then the Bills suffered a couple upset losses. The MVP race is again in danger of being over soon, but with Allen on the outside of it.
THIS AND THAT
THE SUB-PAR SIX Mike Sando of The Athletic looks at six teams with high 2022 expectations, big money QBs and sub-par results (although Tampa Bay is now in the driver’s seat for a division title):
1. The Raiders, Broncos, Colts, Cardinals, Rams and Packers all entered this season with highly paid veteran QBs and Vegas win totals set at 8.5 or higher. None has a winning record through Week 10. Here’s why, and here’s who can reach the playoffs anyway. Each team’s record and preseason Vegas win total (VWT) appear in parentheses.
Packers (4-6, 10.5 VWT) The latest: Their 31-28 overtime victory against Dallas leaves them ninth in the NFC, with a chance to inch up one spot if Washington loses to Philadelphia on Monday night.
What’s wrong: Even the best quarterbacks require a baseline level of weaponry to produce consistently. For Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, this season has resembled Tom Brady’s final season in New England. Back then, in 2019, Brady struggled as the weaponry around him fell off. Rob Gronkowski had retired, and Brady’s relationship with the organization seemed to have run its course. Some mistakenly thought Brady was declining, but multiple coaches who studied him closely insisted at the time that this was not the case. They saw a decline in what was around him. Those coaches were correct. Brady’s production spiked once he landed in Tampa Bay, surrounded by much better offensive skill players.
The big difference for Rodgers is that his team has started slowly, whereas Brady’s Patriots started 8-0 on the strength of a dominant defense before losing four of their final six, including playoffs. Few in New England will forget the Tennessee Titans celebrating their clinching pick-six interception off Brady in the playoffs to end that painful Patriots season and Brady’s long run with the team.
The Packers, having already erred in thinking Rodgers was declining enough for them to draft successor Jordan Love in the first round two years ago, could be in danger of making a similar mistake this coming offseason — unless they correctly realize the weaponry is the issue in Green Bay. At one point during the Cowboys-Packers broadcast Sunday, the announcers noted as a matter of course that Allen Lazard was Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver. That’s a pretty good indication how far the weaponry has fallen, which is the leading reason Rodgers has seemed so close to imploding.
Rodgers berating coach Matt LaFleur after the Packers ran the ball instead of putting it into his hands on the final drive of regulation against Dallas had such destructive potential.
What was Rodgers so upset about?
“Every single play call, probably,” he revealed in his news conference after the game. “I felt like we were 30 yards from ending the game in regulation. I also felt like it was 2-minute, so I was going to be calling those and I was in a pretty good rhythm. Obviously, didn’t have a ton of attempts tonight, but I felt like I was in a pretty good rhythm, I felt like I threw the ball just about exactly where I wanted to tonight, and I wanted a chance to go win the game.”
This victory, built on a recommitment to the ground game and three Rodgers touchdown passes to rookie Christian Watson, averted any more immediate fallout from the exchange, which LaFleur said resulted from his own indecision on how best to proceed against the Cowboys’ defensive looks (“That was on me, totally,” he told reporters after the game). The Packers bought themselves time to hang around in a wide-open NFC.
Green Bay has been such a front-running team for so long because, let’s face it, the Packers haven’t had much practice living the way the rest of the league lives. They’ve almost always figured out ways to win because they’ve been so much better than everyone else at quarterback. They still are so much better than (just about) everyone else at the position, even during this frustrating season.
Rodgers’ worst game, at Detroit last week, did feature a few uncharacteristically bad plays by him, plus lots of destructive frustration. But there were 10 other plays befitting Rodgers’ unanimous Tier 1 status — more than other quarterbacks produce even during better weeks.
Why they can make the playoffs: They have Rodgers and they have the potential to lean on their ground game while he hopefully works through the rough spots with his receivers. Six of their remaining eight games could be played in cold weather (four at Lambeau, plus trips to Philadelphia and Chicago). The ground game could serve Green Bay well in those venues, this late in the season.
Enjoying success targeting Watson doesn’t suddenly turn Watson into Davante Adams, but it does inject positivity where Rodgers didn’t seem to be manufacturing any on his own. It’s a start, at least.
“Rodgers is fine, but he has been so frustrated, it has been harder for him to elevate his talent,” a coach from another team said on the condition of anonymity for competitive reasons.
The Packers executed 11 pass plays and 16 rushes after falling behind the Cowboys 28-14 with two minutes 54 seconds remaining in the third quarter and still won. Rodgers completed 8 of 10 passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns the rest of the way. This type of balance requires extreme efficiency on those limited pass attempts, which Rodgers can deliver with just a little help.
“They are the dead fish that’s washed ashore, except they have Rodgers, so now there is a twitch of life,” an exec from another team said. “All they need to do is stack some wins. None of it erases the fact it is going to take time to get his weaponry built up, but the fact remains, when he suits up for your team, you are never out of it. They came back against Buffalo, they came back against Dallas.
“(Cowboys defensive coordinator) Dan Quinn is sitting up there with a backwards cap and reader glasses knowing they (the Packers) are not running the ball all day. He knows when they flip that switch, it’s going to get really hard, really fast, and it did on fourth-and-7 (when Rodgers found Watson for a 39-yard touchdown with 13:31 left in regulation). You are dealing with trained killer who is dangerous all the time.”
Some semblance of balance is key as long as running back Aaron Jones is by far the best Packer at the offensive skill positions, beyond Rodgers. The Packers found the right balance Sunday, even if they went overboard by grounding Rodgers for a 2-minute drill. They might need to do something similar against Tennessee next week. They’ll need to finish 5-2 to reach 9-8, which would require beating Philadelphia, Miami or Minnesota. It’s doable.
Browns (3-6, 8.5 VWT) The latest: The Browns fell 39-17 at Miami, leaving them 11th in the AFC playoff picture.
What’s wrong: The defense hasn’t been good enough to win even with an offense that, while limited with Jacoby Brissett behind center instead of the suspended Deshaun Watson, still ranks sixth in EPA per game. The Browns rank 30th in defensive EPA per game, 21st on special teams and 32nd in combined defense/special teams. That isn’t good enough for a team that needs to win a certain way on offense, by avoiding pure-pass situations.
Sunday’s defeat at Miami marked the first time in 365 total Browns games since 2000 that Cleveland did not force an opponent into a drive-ending turnover, punt or safety. The Dolphins’ offense had never gone without one of those drive results for an entire game over the same period, according to TruMedia. This was a bad matchup for a Browns team that badly needed a get-well game on defense, but that is no excuse. The Browns also could not stop the New York Jets, who enjoyed their best offensive EPA game of the season against the Browns.
“They have a lot of star power on defense,” an offensive coach said. “Myles Garrett got in that car accident and let’s face it, he got hurt and he is not fully healthy.”
Why they can make the playoffs: How many other teams scrapping for playoff positioning can add a top quarterback for the stretch run? Watson could be rusty. He could struggle. Or, he could light up Houston, Cincinnati, Baltimore, New Orleans, Washington and Pittsburgh to close out the season. The Browns could conceivably run the table once Watson enters the starting lineup for the final five regular-season games. That could get the Browns to 9-8 even if they lost to Buffalo and Tampa Bay the next two weeks, before Watson returns. That is really the only hope for Cleveland, and it’s not a terrible one.
“This was a huge game against Miami and one that if they lost, it was going to be really hard for them to stay up in the AFC,” an exec said. “Baltimore is going to be there, and Cincinnati is going to be right behind them when it’s all said and done.”
Colts (4-5-1, 9.5 VWT) The latest: Beating the Raiders 25-20 gave Indy its first victory under new coach Jeff Saturday, leaving the Colts 10th in the AFC.
What’s wrong: A diminished offensive line, limited speed on the offensive perimeter and an injury that limited running back Jonathan Taylor earlier in the season contributed to Matt Ryan imploding in a flurry of turnovers. The offense only got worse when owner Jim Irsay pushed backup Sam Ehlinger into the lineup at Ryan’s expense.
Why they can make the playoffs: Their record isn’t terrible, so there is less ground to make up in the standings, and the switch back to Ryan at quarterback raises the quarterback performance ceiling in the short term.
If the widely criticized hiring of Saturday was going to result in on-field improvement of any kind, it would presumably begin with the offensive line, given Saturday’s many years playing the position. The line was the one area Indy needed to improve the most, because it could lift up the rest of the offense, notably Ryan, who can function consistently well only when he’s able to step into his throws.
The results Sunday were encouraging. Taylor rushed for 147 yards, his highest total since Week 1. Ryan’s pressure rate dropped to a season-low 17 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. That was the second-lowest rate for any starting QB against the Raiders this season.
Indy does face the NFL’s second-toughest remaining schedule by opponent winning percentage. Philadelphia, Minnesota, Dallas, the Giants and Chargers still remain for the Colts, who have already been swept by Tennessee. So there is still potential for this season to continue unraveling. But with Ryan back in the lineup and Indy winning on the road with its second-best offensive EPA game of the season, there is now some hope where there was recently none.
Raiders (2-7, 10.5 VWT) The latest: Las Vegas lost to a Colts team people had accused of tanking just a few days ago. The Raiders are 15th in the AFC, with only the Houston Texans beneath them.
What’s wrong: The Raiders were banking on Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow leading an offense powerful enough for Las Vegas to overcome a shaky defense. Those three have been on the field together for 62 snaps, and only five since the season’s first two weeks. Bigger picture, even if new coach Josh McDaniels has not tried to do things exactly the way Bill Belichick would have done them, it’s fair to wonder how much early traction he has established with a team whose veteran players seemed hopeful the team might keep 2021 interim coach Rich Bisaccia.
“I think they had a veteran team who doesn’t want to do the Bill Belichick way,” a coach from another team said. “Everyone wants to say Josh is different and learned from the first time. Josh is Josh, and when you go back to your core and your fabric, you are who you are. I think it was really important for him to get off to a good start, and he didn’t, and that makes it harder to capture the locker room.”
The Raiders did not behave like the Patriots when they gave new contracts to quarterback Derek Carr, Adams, Waller and Renfrow before any of them had played for McDaniels. Those signings seemed incongruent with a new coach coming in and making holdover players earn their spots. But after former coach Jon Gruden traded away Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, reaching deals with Carr, Adams, Waller and Renfrow could have been seen as ownership’s push for stability.
Whatever the case, McDaniels needs those players to perform at their best, but Waller and Renfrow were regulars on the injury report before landing on injured reserve recently. Adams has been productive. He has one fewer catch for two fewer yards than he had through the Packers’ first nine games last season. But it hasn’t been enough.
Why they can make the playoffs: I don’t think they can, but they are an interesting team to discuss. The Raiders are one of five teams this season to lead by at least 17 points in four or more games. They are 1-3 in those games. The rest of the league is 49-3-1 in them. Las Vegas is 0-6 in one-score games.
We could use those figures to suggest Las Vegas is close to breaking through, that things are sure to even out, but not many teams are going to win consistently when their most talented players are in the training room. Adams is great and showed it Sunday with nine catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. But with Waller sidelined and Renfrow failing to produce as hoped before landing on IR, this Raiders team appears shorthanded, with no evidence McDaniels can make up the difference on game day.
Rams (3-6, 8.5 VWT) The latest: The Rams fell 27-17 at home to the Cardinals, leaving Los Angeles 13th in the NFC.
What’s wrong: The defending Super Bowl champs’ margin for error shrunk after going all-in for elite talent acquisitions, from Matthew Stafford to Jalen Ramsey to the now-in-Buffalo Von Miller. To contend this season, the Rams needed to sufficiently replace retiring left tackle Andrew Whitworth while maintaining an injury edge that had become so pronounced, the team could take credit for finding ways to keep its players on the field.
From 2016 through 2020, the Rams ranked between the third- and eighth-healthiest teams, as measured by the injury tracking site Man-Games Lost, which measures injury impact using position-weighted Approximate Value player stats from Pro Football Reference. The Rams reached the Super Bowl last season while slipping to 16th in those rankings. This season, the injuries have hit the offensive line, with Whitworth’s replacement, Joe Noteboom, landing on injured reserve, and the team shuttling through multiple players at other positions up front, including center. A concussion prevented Stafford from starting the Arizona game. A potentially severe leg injury prevented top receiver Cooper Kupp from finishing it.
With poor pass protection and no viable run game, the Rams have gotten the worst version of their quarterback. Stafford is one of 26 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts this season and the only one who doesn’t have more touchdown passes than interceptions.
“They are running basic plays and they are not executing and the balls aren’t on time and you don’t have confidence in the line,” a coach from another team said.
Why they can make the playoffs: Hanging around and hoping other teams encounter even worse predicaments isn’t much of a strategy, but it might be all the Rams have at this point. They will need the rest of of their division to remain inconsistent. They still play Seattle twice, and some of their tougher-looking opponents entering the season now seem more manageable (Denver, Green Bay, Arizona, Las Vegas). But this feels like a lost season, and it feels as though the Rams know it.
After the team lost games in recent seasons, coach Sean McVay sounded in his postgame news conferences as though he were agitated and might not sleep until the team won again. This season, he has sounded calm and without much edge in those situations, as if he knows there are logical reasons the team is in this situation, and there might not be anything in his powers to fix things anytime soon.
Broncos (3-6, 10.5 VWT) The latest: Denver suffered a 17-10 defeat at Tennessee, leaving the Broncos 12th in the AFC.
What’s wrong: Everything on offense. The Broncos have an overmatched rookie head coach whose offensive staff features zero members with even 10 years of experience in the league. They have a diminished version of the formerly brilliant Russell Wilson, whose limitations are now outweighing the rest of his game. Those who thought entering the season that Denver’s receivers were overrated have been proven correct. Losing Jerry Jeudy to injury Sunday (and Tim Patrick previously) doesn’t help. The offensive line has struggled, and with top running back Javonte Williams out for the year, there is nowhere for this offense to turn.
Why they can make the playoffs: They cannot unless disaster strikes one of the AFC East or AFC North leaders. Even then, with Denver still having to play Kansas City twice, the outlook is bleak. That said, the Denver defense under new coordinator Ejiro Evero ismuch better than many in the league thought it would be after Vic Fangio’s firing. Teams with good defenses can usually keep games close if they do not suffer turnovers. Wilson, for all his faults this season, is not a turnover machine. Though he hasn’t been able to elevate what is around him with any consistency, if at all, there is still at least an outside chance he improves as the season progresses.
Cardinals (4-6, 8.5 VWT) The latest: Arizona won 27-17 on the road against the Rams in a battle between teams with backup quarterbacks. The Cardinals are 11th in the NFC.
What’s wrong: The offense faltered beyond expectation while No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins served a six-game suspension to start the season, amplifying questions about coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray. Hopkins is back, but now Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury. Arizona’s offense ranks 28th in explosive plays per game on offense (runs of at least 12 yards, passes of at least 16). Its defense ranks 25th in explosive plays allowed per game. That is a losing combination, and if Murray remains sidelined or limited, how high is the ceiling for Arizona?
Why they can make the playoffs: It’s going to be tough with the 49ers (twice), Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Buccaneers and Falcons still on the schedule. The Cardinals did beat the Stafford-less Rams on Sunday with Colt McCoy in the lineup. They scored 27 points on offense, one point from their season high. With McCoy completing 26 of 37 passes for 238 yards and a touchdown, there could be some urgency for Murray to play better when he returns. Has that been missing?
“Colt had a lot to do with it on offense,” Kingsbury said afterward, when asked about what appeared to be an increased energy level on offense. “His presence, how he carried himself — being 36, he understands the opportunities for him don’t come along very often. All week during practice, guys felt that. There was a sense of urgency — ‘Hey, I’m going to go out and showing what I can do, this is my opportunity.’ ”
A temporary boost in energy from McCoy playing decently isn’t going to propel Arizona anywhere. Will it propel Murray? His streakiness has been a problem, but at least there is evidence in the past that Arizona can string together victories when Murray and Hopkins are both at their best. The Cardinals averaged 26.5 offensive points per game last season when Murray started and Hopkins played.
BROADCAST NEWS Flex thoughts from Peter King:
The Miami-Buffalo rematch was supposed to be an anchor game for NFL Network on the Saturday of Week 15, but I won’t be surprised if it moves to Sunday night. Remember how the NFL decided to give NFL Network a triple-header on a mid-December Saturday, after all the college football weekends? When the schedule is announced in May, the league designates five games for the “Saturday pool” in Week 15, with the understanding that three would be played that Saturday (at 1 p.m., 4:30 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET) on NFL Network and the other two Sunday on CBS or Fox. This year, one of those five slated games is Miami at Buffalo. NFL Network would be thrilled for that huge AFC East game to be played in prime time on the league’s channel. But the Sunday night game that week is New England at Las Vegas. We’re still a month out, but Pats-Raiders looks like a ratings clunker. NBC likely would want to swap out Pats-Raiders for Fins-Bills. This is the advantage of the NFL owning NFL Network—if it wants, it can take a huge game from a league-owned outlet and move it to a network paying millions to do the games. If the NFL keeps Miami-Buffalo on NFL Net, it’s a sign they want to fortify the value of NFL Network. If it’s moved to Sunday, it’s a sign of how realistic the NFL is in satiating the networks that pay the NFL billions.
ESPN paid for flex scheduling in 2023. I bet ESPN wishes it had it now. Among the inventory for ESPN’s last six Monday night games: Pittsburgh at Indianapolis Nov. 28, New England at Arizona Dec. 12, Rams at Green Bay Dec. 19, Chargers at Indianapolis Dec. 26. Last year, when Disney/ESPN negotiated a long-term contract with the NFL, it got three perks beginning in 2023: a Saturday double-header on ESPN in Week 18, the ability to simulcast a few games each year on ABC, and a limited ability to flex-schedule games after Thanksgiving. ESPN has never been able to replace Monday night stinkers with decent games. The league will have the option to change some beginning next year. I don’t think it will be nirvana for fans, though. Moving a Sunday afternoon game to Sunday night is an inconvenience for fans and teams, to be sure. But moving a Sunday afternoon game to Monday night is a huge ask. The NFL likely would be okay moving a game with two woebegone teams out of the Monday night slot. But it will be judicious—I’d be surprised if it happened more than once a year. If the league had the flex this year for ESPN, maybe Steelers-Colts would move to Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, with Cincinnati-Tennessee flipping to Monday night. I think the bar will be higher for ESPN to flex than it will be for NBC.
So what happens to Patriots-Raiders in Week 15 if it’s moved out of Sunday night? The easy fix would be to move it to Saturday if Miami-Buffalo moves to Sunday. Two problems: New England plays at Arizona on Monday night in Week 14, so making the Pats come back on very short rest wouldn’t be good. Plus, Allegiant Stadium is in use on the Saturday of Week 15 for the Las Vegas Bowl. So Pats-Raiders, if moved, would switch to a Sunday afternoon game. Dec. 4 is shaping up as a tough flex decision for the league. On the SNF schedule is Indianapolis at Dallas. The league would be loath to move Dallas out of a prime-time slot, because Cowboys ratings are always good—and ratings for a playoff-bound Cowboys team would be better, theoretically. But there are two complicating factors. One: No one on Sunday night is hanging in if it’s 28-3 at the half and with the Colts being awful, that’s possible. Two: Look at the NFL’s alternatives to flex: Jets-Minnesota, Kansas City-Cincinnati, Tennessee-Philadelphia. That is one competitive slate if the NFL wants to move a game.
Game 272. In my preseason predictions, I picked Baltimore-Cincinnati to be the Sunday night game in Week 18 (game 272). The NFL picks the game that would either be a division championship game, or a game that would have major playoff implications. This morning, there are a few options. Ravens-Bengals is a strong one—both could be in play for the division then. But Jets-Dolphins has good playoff win-and-in potential. And though this is a long shot, what if Philly’s 16-0 going into the final game, hosting the Giants? That would be a great candidate, particularly if Eagles coach Nick Sirianni says he’s going for all the marbles there. By the way, Howard Katz and the NFL scheduling team usually are good at projecting in April and May which teams would be late-season attractions. Good, but not flawless, as shown by the league slating the Colts in prime time in three of the five weeks after Thanksgiving.
MUNICH Peter King proclaims Munich a huge success for the NFL:
Tom Brady, for at least once this autumn, could smile and mean it.
“That was spectacular,” he told me of the NFL’s first regular-season game on German soil. “I mean, that stadium was rocking. The crowd singing ‘Country Roads’ and ‘Sweet Caroline,’ it felt like it was a Red Sox game out there. It was amazing, the whole experience.”
Forget the Tampa 21, Seattle 16 aspect of the day, and even the season-altering 88-, 86- and 87-yard drives by Brady and the formerly offensively somnambulant Bucs. Think of the day this way: This was a good game—not an all-timer. If it’d been played in Tampa as a Bucs’ home game, people would have left the stadium happy that the Bucs were 5-5, but the fans and the quarterback wouldn’t have had a special feeling about the day, and there wouldn’t have been thousands celebrating a regular-season game for five days here—and I mean celebrating.
Instead, after this city and the NFL put on one of the great shows for a regular-season game ever, Brady walked to the postgame podium and said, “This was one of the great football experiences I’ve ever had.”
Seattle coach Pete Carroll said: “The fans were extraordinary. Everything about this whole trip has been great. What a spectacle. This has been an unforgettable occurrence.”
And Carroll lost!
The thing is, the 69,811 at Allianz Arena didn’t leave the stadium. They stayed, singing and cheering the players as they left the field, then just hanging out watching RedZone on the big screens and watching a live postgame show on the field. It’s like the fans were really unhappy the game was played in a tidy 2 hours, 48 minutes. “I stayed for an hour after the game,” said Max Lange, the founder of the German Seahawkers fan club. “No one wanted to leave. No matter who won today, it was such a celebration of football. We lost, but I’m so happy. We showed today we can support the NFL at a very high level.”
What a day. This city, and this country, deserve many more. – – – American football, regular-season football, took its latest step in trying to own the world Sunday. The NFL debuted in Germany with Tampa Bay’s win on a pristine, 51-degree afternoon, the first non-soccer event staged in Allianz Arena in the venue’s 17-year history. It took Roger Goodell and Tom Brady to make the Munich city government waive its soccer-only dictum for the famous stadium of FC Bayern Munich, the biggest soccer team in Germany. The city leaders, and the seven FC Bayern players who waited for 40 minutes after the game to meet Brady, are damn glad Brady and the Bucs took their turf for one day.
A few days before the game, Jim Tomsula was educating me on the importance of football in the country. You remember Tomsula. He coached the Niners in 2015, between Jim Harbaugh and Chip Kelly. Before that, he coached in the old NFL Europe league. Now he’s back coaching the Rhein Fire in Dusseldorf, a northern German city, in the 18-team European League of Football. It’s the Patriot League to the NFL.
“It is pure, and it is awesome,” Tomsula said. “It’s a part of America that people here just love. To people in Germany, football represents the dream of America, and America is still the sparkling star that intrigues the hell out of everybody. With our team, the pageantry just grabs fans. They drink, they dress up, they sing, they chant. It’s a rockin’-ass party for three hours.”
He said people in Germany were blown away that the NFL would send Tom Brady to play a real game over here. I told him that Chicago-based sports consultant Marc Ganis said Brady playing in Germany would be like the Beatles playing in New York in the sixties.
“The comparison to the Beatles is spot on,” Tomsula said. “Sunday will be unbelievable. I’m telling you, people in Germany will cry, they’ll be so happy.”
It was nutty in Munich all week. On Thursday night, ex-Niners and -Lions coach Steve Mariucci, in town with NFL Network, dressed in lederhosen just for fun and drank at the renowned Hofbrau Haus. “I wanna be a part of it!” he said, trying to be heard over the German oom-pah band. The Seahawks bar was overrun with Seattle fans from across the globe, as far away as Australia; many came 5,500 miles from western Washington.
But mostly, this was a national holiday for the fans here, like 38-year-old journalist and Ravens fan Tobias Zervos of Bad Homburg, near Frankfurt. “I like soccer too,” Zervos said. “But in football, the salary cap makes the game more fair. In our Bundesliga, the difference between the top-spending teams and the teams on the bottom is about 250 million euros. I like the fact that in football, more teams have a chance to win the championship.”
Zervos and the German Seahawker fan I referenced earlier, Max Lange, also said putting two games per Sunday on free TV was important; that started in 2015. But the Germans are still struggling to produce a consistent pool of talent. “We need to find our Dirk Nowitski,” Tomsula said.
Germany has produced some big linemen, including former Patriots tackle Sebastian Vollmer and ex-Giants defensive tackle Markus Kuhn. Both work as ambassadors for the league here, and as TV commentators on the game. Their origin stories are long shots, which is why the NFL wants to see more club football and flag football programs—both of which are growing here.
Kuhn, by age 14, hadn’t found a sport to his liking until he was prompted to try out for a club football team near his home in Weinheim. As a linebacker and defensive tackle on his club team, he was an all-league player. But then what?
“I wanted to try to play college football,” Kuhn said Saturday. “I thought I might be good enough, but I didn’t know. So my dad and I flew to Washington D.C., rented a car. We didn’t know how the recruiting process worked. I had a recruiting tape, and for two months we just drove down the coast—Liberty, Richmond, William & Mary, North Carolina State. Just showed up at the front door of the schools and said, ‘I’m Markus, I’m from Germany, I play football.’ They looked at me like I was crazy. But I got offered some scholarships. (He took one from N.C. State and played there.)
“Four-and-a-half years later, I’m the first German ever invited to the Scouting Combine. I got drafted by the Giants and played in the league for four years. I accomplished way more in football than I ever thought I would. Now, seeing the growth of the game back home, so many kids playing flag football and loving the game, seeing the growth of the game on TV … Now the NFL sending its biggest star to play a game here.
“Goosebumps,” Kuhn said. “I’ve got goosebumps thinking about it.”
It used to be, until recently, when teams began making marketing agreements with countries around the world, that it was hard to convince teams to play in Europe. No more. After Sunday’s game, Pete Carroll said he hoped the Seahawks got invited back to Germany soon. Carroll is bullish on making football a world game. He told me Thursday he’d love to see each country have a national team, with world tournaments pitting country teams against each other the way soccer and basketball do.
“The world is watching,” Carroll said. “They’ve known about our sport for such a long time. I’ve always imagined someday that American football would be everywhere and there would be people coaching their football team for their country. It’s always been a great spectacle and I love that we’re sharing it with the world now—the stories, the color, the music, the speed, the ferocity. It captures people.”
By noon Sunday, one estimate had 40,000 people tailgating—another thing that isn’t done as enthusiastically in soccer—in the parking lots around Allianz. A Jacksonville-Houston game would have packed in a crowd here, but it was huge that Seattle, appealing because the Legion of Boom at the height of its popularity got lots of these fans to love the game, and Tampa Bay, with the great Brady, were the competitors.
It seemed about a 55-45 Seattle crowd. With a revived Tampa offense giving Brady time to throw—the Bucs finally got Brady some help with a run game that managed a season-high 161 yards on the ground, led by rookie back Rachaad White’s 105—the Bucs broke to a 14-0 halftime lead and held on.
In the fourth quarter, during a break, from out of nowhere, the stadium was filled with John Denver’s “Take Me Home, Country Roads.” Many of the Americans in the stadium looked around like, John Denver in Germany? Why? Incredibly, as the song reverberated through the place, the fans started singing it. “WEST VIRGINIA, MOUNTAIN MAMA!” Loudly. In tune. The fans knew every word. Down on the field, Seattle linebacker Bruce Irvin—a West Virginia Mountaineer himself—began bouncing and dancing to the song, even though the Bucs were in the process of sending Irvin home with a loss.
“Why ‘Country Roads?’” I asked Max Lange afterward.
“We play it at parties all the time,” he said. “We love it. All those songs they played—‘Sweet Caroline,’ ‘Hey Baby.’ Those are party classics in Germany.”
A stadium in Munich, reverberating with 69,000 singing a song extolling the virtues of West Virginia. You learn a lot at the first NFL game in Germany.
The Future
The NFL agreed last spring to stage four games between 2022 and ’25 in Germany—two in Munich, two in Frankfurt. “I wouldn’t be surprised to expand beyond that,” Roger Goodell said Saturday at a fan event. There are growing indications that two prime fan favorites in Germany—Kansas City and New England—both could serve as home teams for games in 2023.The league is working with the Bundesliga, the German soccer league, on dates because the games come in the middle of the Bundesliga season. But I heard at least one of the games and perhaps both would be held in Frankfurt.
Interesting to see the cooperation between the NFL and the Bundesliga. What’s in it for the German league? A couple of things—help for some German teams’ American “friendlies” in the off-season (such as Bayern Munich’s August game in Green Bay) and technical support in advanced analytics. The NFL has shared Next Gen Stats technical support and player-tracking data with the Bundesliga.
Next year is the AFC’s turn for teams to have nine home games, so the NFL will use AFC teams to be home teams for international games. The NFL has raised the prospect of a team or teams in Europe permanently—Goodell said a four-team division one day is possible—but that’s very unlikely in the near term. The NFL doesn’t want to expand from 32 teams, and there’s not a single team that appears close to wanting to move. “The more likely outcome is having more games over here,” said Vollmer, who lives in Florida but commutes here for football.
Sunday’s game, Vollmer said during the week, “is the next big step. It won’t be the last.”
The NFL will play games outside of England and Germany at some point; Miami could play a game in Brazil or Spain in the next three or four years. The Rams are bullish about playing in Australia one day. But clearly the horizon with the biggest upside is Europe. There were journalists from 22 countries credentialed for Sunday’s game, including 18 in Europe (Croatia, Serbia, Portugal), with varying degrees of enthusiasm.
Denmark was here. Danish reporter Kasper Skipper from TV2, the NFL rights-holder there, covered the game. I asked him about football in his country.
“It has a following in Denmark,” Skipper said, “but it’s not quite [team] handball or badminton.”
Well then. The NFL has some work to do in Scandinavia. But they’re in pretty good shape in Germany.
|