| If The Season Ended Today in the NFC – The Eagles have distanced themselves in the East, the Rams and Bears moved into the lead of their division with wins, while the Panthers are just a half-game back in the South (with two to play against Tampa Bay). The 49ers pulled into the final Wild Card spot, while the Lions fell all the way from 3rd to out of the playoffs with their loss at Philadelphia NFC ConfPhiladelphia East 8-2 7-1LA Rams West 8-2 3-2Chicago North 7-3 5-2Tampa Bay South 6-4 4-2Seattle WC1 7-2 4-3Green Bay WC2 6-3-1 4-1-1San Francisco WC3 7-4 7-2 Detroit 7-4 4-4Carolina 6-5 4-2 If The Season Ended Today in the AFC: AFC ConfDenver West 9-2 6-2New England East 9-2 5-2Indianapolis South 8-2 6-1Pittsburgh North 6-4 5-2Buffalo WC1 7-3 4-2LA Chargers WC2 7-4 6-2Jacksonville WC3 6-4 4-3Kansas City 5-5 2-4Houston 5-5 4-2Baltimore 5-5 3-3 This, not that we understand DVOA: @ASchatzNFLFun with DVOA in this topsy-turvy year. Patriots are the second-lowest 9-2 team ever by DVOA (behind 2022 Vikings) Bears are the second-lowest 7-3 team ever by DVOA (behind 1986 Chiefs) Panthers are the second-lowest 6-5 team ever by DVOA (behind 2016 Texans)– – -At the other end of the standings: Pick Team (last year) SOS Currently1 Tennessee (1) 1-9 .572 Lost 52 NY Giants (3) 2-9 .540 Lost 53 Cleveland (5) 2-8 .485 Lost 34 New Orleans (9) 2-8 .494 Won 15 NY Jets (7) 2-8 .523 Lost 16 Las Vegas (6) 2-7 .548 Lost 3- – -This from Booger McFarland: @ESPNBoogerEagles Jags Dolphins Cardinals all have 1 thing in common. The QB is the highest paid player on the team and clearly not the best player That dynamic always creates issues, just think about it Not sure we agree as to the Eagles. QBs are always well paid and JALEN HURTS is a good player, within the realm of the top 10 at the position. As for the other three teams…and certainly the Browns when QB DESHAWN WATSON surfaces. |
| NFC NORTH |
| DETROITThe Lions hopes for a comeback were done in by defensive pass interference call that Cris Collinsworth called “absolutely terrible” and he is not going to get much argument on that. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com attacks referee Alex Kemp’s attempt to defend: With 1:51 to play on Sunday night in Philadelphia, the Lions had a chance to force an Eagles punt and potentially score a late touchdown, in a 16-9 game. Detroit made the stop. Until the Men in Black (and White) got involved, flagging Detroit cornerback Rock Ya-Sin for interfering with receiver A.J. Brown. NBC’s Cris Collinsworth pulled no punches, calling the penalty “absolutely terrible.” After the game, referee Alex Kemp was made available to pool reporter Zach Berman. “Why the pass interference on that play?” Berman asked. “The official observed the receiver’s arm getting grabbed and restricting him from going up to make the catch,” Kemp said. “So, the ball was in the air, there was a grab at the arm, restricted him and he called defensive pass interference.” It’s just the latest example of the pointlessness of pool reports. Rarely, if ever, does the referee say, “We made a mistake.” Instead, they routinely restate the erroneous factual basis for the bad decision made in real time. While the league may think this counts as transparency, it smacks of propaganda. When a clear error has been made, the only acceptable alternative to admitting the blunder should be to say nothing. As the Commissioner said in 2012, in the halcyon days of the NFL’s hatred of sports betting, “If gambling is permitted freely on sporting events, normal incidents of the game such as bad snaps, dropped passes, turnovers, penalties, and play calling inevitably will fuel speculation, distrust, and accusations of point-shaving or game-fixing.” The potential motivation for normal incidents of the game becomes no less abnormal when the official explanation from the referee responsible for the crew that made a mistake says anything other than, “We made a mistake.” The better approach would be for the league to have a skilled and polished officiating spokesperson who talks to reporters after each weekend of games, who takes any and all questions about officiating decisions from the weekend that was, and who gives candid, accurate, and truthful responses — without regard to whether the officials who made mistakes will be upset that their mistakes were publicly acknowledged. That’s the only way to counter the knee-jerk reaction that a mistake was something more than a mistake. And it’s a continuing mistake for the NFL to not acknowledge this basic truth and act accordingly. By the standard of the Rock Ya-Sin play, pass interference could be called on every play, and that is something no one would want to see. Albert Breer: @AlbertBreerI’ll reiterate my stance: Officiating needs to be torn down to the studs. They need to rebuild it with the technology that’s now available. What they’ve done instead—which is to continually add on to what they already have, and overcomplicate everything—clearly isn’t working. |
| MINNESOTAThis take from Ari Meirov: @MySportsUpdateJJ McCarthy was drafted into what seemed like the best situation of the six QBs from the 2024 class. But so far… Jayden Daniels made the NFC Championship Game as a rookie, while Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix are a combined 25-7 this season—and all in first place in their divisions. McCarthy is nowhere close. And that’s just the plain truth right now..Then there is MICHAEL PENIX, Jr. and the Falcons.- – -Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com takes stock, falling stock we might add, of QB J.J. McCARTHY: The first time J.J. McCarthy played the Chicago Bears, he had a great fourth quarter to lead a win and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. That seems quite humorous now. In that same game, McCarthy was awful for three quarters before that fourth-quarter rally. As it turns out, that seems to be the more accurate snapshot of where McCarthy is at this early stage of his NFL career. The Vikings made a bold choice in the offseason, essentially moving on from Sam Darnold to give McCarthy a shot. It made sense. McCarthy was the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and getting paid much less than Darnold would end up getting from the Seattle Seahawks. But it hinged on McCarthy playing at a passable level. Other than that magical fourth quarter against the Bears in Week 1, there’s little evidence that McCarthy will be a good NFL starting quarterback. McCarthy was mostly awful Sunday in the rematch against the Bears. He had one good drive, leading the Vikings to a go-ahead touchdown in the final two minutes, but the Bears came right back with a game-winning field goal as time expired. McCarthy’s poor play for all of the drives before that final one was the main reason the Vikings lost 19-17. He’s also a reason the Vikings are 4-6 without much hope for turning things around this season. Before the Vikings’ final drive, McCarthy had less than 100 yards passing and his completion percentage was under 50%. He finished 16-of-32 passing for 150 yards, and a lot of the stats were from the final drive. That’s something for the Vikings to be positive about, but before that it was an absolute mess. McCarthy’s final numbers weren’t horrendous, but they don’t indicate how poorly he played. He repeatedly missed open receivers, and on a few of them he was off by a mile. His most accurate throws in the first half might have been to Kevin Byard and Nahshon Wright, both of whom happen to play defensive back for the Bears. In the first half, the Vikings had three points and McCarthy had two interceptions. McCarthy’s passer rating was 22.6. Fans started booing in Minnesota at every inaccurate pass. It probably wasn’t just for the absolutely miserable performance Sunday. It was probably the thought that the Vikings went 14-3 last season with Darnold, then might have overreacted to two bad games at the end of the season and let him walk in free agency. Darnold entered Sunday on a short list of MVP candidates as he led the Seahawks to a 7-2 start. He looks light years better than McCarthy. One drive in the fourth quarter doesn’t change that. As it turns out, it might not be the best idea to tout your “alter ego” before you show you can play in the NFL. It’s early to call McCarthy a bust. Five starts is way too small of a sample size. It took Darnold more than five seasons to emerge. But it doesn’t look good through those five games. McCarthy has looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. He can’t even get Justin Jefferson the ball regularly, which says a lot. The 2024 quarterback draft class looks very good. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix all have had some exceptional moments. It was unlikely that the class would go 6-for-6 on quarterback hits out of the first round. McCarthy has a long way to go to not be the one clear miss in that group. |
| NFC SOUTH |
| ATLANTAIt looks like QB MICHAEL PENIX, Jr. may be done for 2025. Michael Kadlick of SI.com: The Falcons have received some unfortunate news about quarterback Michael Penix Jr. After the second-year signal caller left Sunday’s loss against the Panthers, ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that he suffered what is “potentially” a season-ending knee injury. “Penix will be seeking a second opinion” Schefter added. “But it is not encouraging.” This is a little more optimistic from Ian Rappoport: @RapSheet#Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr is believed to have aggravated the same knee injury as earlier in the season, per me and @TomPelissero. That bone bruise in the same knee kept him out one game. More tests coming, but there is concern he’ll miss some time. |
| CAROLINAOut of nowhere, QB BRYCE YOUNG not only had a personal best as a passer, he set the Panthers team record. David Newton of ESPN.com: – Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young was writhing in pain as he clutched his right ankle — the one that forced him to miss a game earlier this season — in the first quarter of Sunday’s 30-27 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Coach Dave Canales and teammates were out on the field on a knee wondering whether Young would return, particularly after athletic trainers took him straight to the locker room. Young returned — and then turned in a career day. The No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft, with his ankle heavily taped, passed for a franchise-record 448 yards and three touchdowns. He drove the Panthers in position for the winning field goal in overtime thanks to a short pass that tight end Tommy Tremble turned into 54-yard gain. Young almost single-handedly helped Carolina improve to 6-5 and move a half-game behind the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4). Afterward, Young didn’t hide the amount of pain he was in. “‘Pain’ is an accurate way to sum it up,” Young said. “You just breathe through the pain.” Teammates marveled at Young’s return and performance. “I saw him come back into the game,” said wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who had eight catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. ”I’m like, ‘Hey, you good?’ He’s like, ‘Yeah!’ I’m like, ‘Well, next time get your ass up.’ “He’s always level-headed. The moment is never too big. He’s built for moments like this one.” After a 17-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints a week ago, when the Saints shut down the run and dared Young to beat them, some questioned whether he was capable of a big moment like this. While he didn’t light it up with deep shots Sunday, his 36-yard touchdown pass to a struggling Xavier Legette on the first drive of the second half ended a streak of 0-for-5 on passes of 30-plus yards and started the comeback. In the end, Young topped Cam Newton’s single-game Panthers record of 432 passing yards, set in 2011 during a Week 2 game against the Green Bay Packers. “Definitely honored,” Young said of breaking Newton’s record. “I have so much respect for Cam, all that he’s accomplished. Hearing that is definitely an honor.” But, Young reminded: “Individual awards, that’s not what I’m after. They don’t mean anything. I’m grateful that we won. We had the most important stat, that we won.” It all kept the Panthers in position for a winning season and a shot at the playoffs for the first time since 2017, the year before owner David Tepper purchased the team. The schedule gets tougher. Carolina’s next two games are against the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams, both contenders. But the Panthers also have two opportunities remaining against the first-place Buccaneers, so players knows anything is possible. “That’s exactly the vision and the dream that I hoped for, that if we played complementary football for a long time we’ll put ourselves in position for the finish,” Canales said of being in this position. That Young finished after the injury didn’t surprise Canales; he said he has seen that resiliency in his quarterback since he took over the team last season. “He gave me a thumbs up and said, ‘I’m good,'” Canales said of seeing Young walk back on the field without missing a series. “So that’s good enough for me.” Young had passed for a total of 364 yards in the three previous games, failing to reach 150 in any of them. Then he goes off for 448 on Sunday. |
| TAMPA BAYIn a new era of bold decisions, Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles left the team’s fan base reeling with an extremely timid punt in Sunday’s loss. Josh Hill of ThePewterPlank.comwith a good summary: For the second week in a row, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are reeling after a loss in which they were their own worst enemy. The Bucs let mistakes and poor decisions get in the way last Sunday against the Patriots, and the same thing happened in Buffalo in Week 11. One of those decisions came when Todd Bowles decided to fold his hand at the worst possible time. Midway through the fourth quarter, with the Bucs down only five points, Bowles elected to punt on 4th-and-2 rather than try to convert and keep the drive going. It was a critical error, one that was instantly roasted for being the wrong one and a move that essentially killed Tampa Bay’s chances of getting back into the game. There was risk involved, as the ball was on Tampa Bay’s side of the field at the 39-yardline, but the context of the situation is what made both the decision and Bowles’ explanation of it after the game even worse. Todd Bowles isn’t going to win anyone over with his explanation for punting on 4th-and-2After the game, Bowles was asked about what went into the decision, and he gave both the blandest and most frustrating answer he possibly could have. “There was plenty of time, we felt like we had a chance.” Bowles said. “It was early in the fourth quarter, we felt like we had a chance to not give them a short field there.” Here’s the thing, it wasn’t that early in the fourth quarter which is just one layer of why this answer from Bowles is so frustrating to hear. The Bucs punted the ball away with 7:28 left in the game, which might seem moderately fine without the key context that the game had already seen nine lead changes up to that point. That’s where the other part of the frustration comes into play; Bowles’ defense was absolutely atrocious on Sunday. Josh Allen set a new NFL record for passing and rushing touchdowns, which is who the Bucs were giving the ball back to. Allen carved Tampa Bay’s defense up for 317 yards and six total touchdowns, and unsurprisingly needed just eight plays to extend Buffalo’s lead to double digits. It was an objectively questionable call on its own, but borders on malpractice given everything involved in the equation. Beyond that, it sent the entirely wrong message at a critical juncture in the game; the Bucs decided to fold rather than be aggressive and it sort of set the tone for how the rest of the game went. Tampa Bay got the ball back with time to get back into it but the Bucs couldn’t muster anything up. Baker Mayfield blamed his interception in the third quarter as a moment in which the game’s momentum swung, but the final nail in the coffin was Bowles’ decision to punt it on 4th-and-2. Nothing suggested it was the right call, and it’s one that the Bucs paid for dearly in the end. Hearing an answer that amounts to a shoulder shrug doesn’t make things much better. The Buccaneers in 2025 hired a game manager who presumably would keep Bowles from making head-scratching decisions like this. Greg Auman of FoxSports.com says the Buccaneers have walked this path previously under Bowles: @gregaumanBucs’ midseason swoons and late rebounds under Todd Bowles: 2025: Open 5-1, go 1-3 …2024: Open 4-2, go 0-4, finish 6-12023: Open 3-1, go 1-6, finish 5-12022: Open 2-0, go 1-5, finish 5-4 They are at the Rams on Sunday night, so it might be “Open 5-1, go 1-4…” |
| NFC WEST |
| SAN FRANCISCOFrank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the return of QB BROCK PURDY: Purdy’s toe injury wasn’t the reason the San Francisco 49ers were just 6-4 heading into Sunday’s game at the Arizona Cardinals. Mac Jones played pretty well in his place. But the 49ers are undeniably better with Purdy back in the lineup. Purdy threw three touchdown passes in his return to the lineup and the 49ers got an easy 41-22 win over the Cardinals. It was just third game of the season for Purdy, and he looked healthy. The 49ers are in a tough NFC West so it will take a big rally to win the division. But the 49ers have some winnable games coming up. More importantly, they have their quarterback back. |
| SEATTLEFor the second year in a row, the Rams have been Kryptonite to QB SAM DARNOLD. Mike Sando of The Athletic: It wasn’t clear what was more impressive from the Los Angeles Rams’ 21-19 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11. Was it the Rams picking off Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold four times? Or was it Seattle having a chance at a walk-off field goal despite all those Darnold donations? The Week 16 rematch in Seattle might not be sufficient for these NFC West rivals, who could easily meet for a third time in the playoffs, with much more at stake. The Pick Six column zooms in on those four Darnold picks, enlisting a veteran NFL coach to find patterns across all 11 Darnold interceptions in an otherwise stellar season for the reborn veteran passer. Seattle, like Darnold’s Minnesota team last season, looks like a Super Bowl contender, if only the quarterback can play better when it matters most. 1. Darnold’s four interceptions doomed Seattle, but the Seahawks nearly won anyway. Here are my top five takeaways Takeaway No. 1: The panic gene is part of Darnold’s DNA until he proves otherwise.Darnold took nine sacks against the Rams in the playoffs last season. Those were not all his fault, of course, but they fed the narrative surrounding his big-game readiness. Darnold took no sacks Sunday, but this was his third career game with exactly zero touchdown passes and four picks, more than anyone else since 2000 (there have been 56 such games total). “Sam is just going to have that in him for life,” one veteran coach said. “He will play great. He will play good. Then he is going to have those plays. The problem is, when you get established as a playoff team, everyone is scared to death that is going to happen.” A different coach flipped through Darnold’s interceptions this season and saw a quarterback who holds the ball too long and/or plays hero ball under duress. On the first interception Sunday, which leads the highlight package above, this coach said: “Here, he thinks he is Aaron Rodgers. He is going to fall away and do a wrist flick. At least he made the tackle.” On the second interception, featured above: “Trying to hit the speed out, and he underthrows it. He is holding the ball. You gotta throw it.” On the third interception (above): “Jittery. Fiddling with the ball. He stares it down, and the safety jumps all over it.” (Color commentator and retired NFL tight end Greg Olsen said on the broadcast that Darnold likely expected his target, tight end Elijah Arroyo, to bend his route farther inside.) On the fourth interception (above): “Just complete panic. No reason to throw this. We are jumping like Roger Staubach throwing to Golden Richards.” As the other coach put it: “I don’t think anyone is coaching jump passes anymore.” Opponents are clearly aware of Darnold’s tendencies. “The rush contains him, and he wants to get rid of the ball, and he’s flinching up,” said Rams safety Kam Kinchens, who snagged the first and third interceptions. “He don’t want to get sacked. He’s just trying to get the ball out of his hands, so that’s when I knew there was an opportunity.” Darnold will have to live with this narrative until he disproves it. The quarterback threw four interceptions in another long day against the rival Rams. Takeaway No. 2: Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald were not the only coaches in this game. How about a nod to Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula? The Rams jumped one spot to third in defensive EPA per play after collecting more EPA off turnovers (21.9) in this game than any McVay-era defense since the final game of the 2018 season, a span of 122 total games. The performance against Seattle upstaged the much-anticipated matchup between McVay and Macdonald, the play-calling head coaches from opposite sides of the ball. Shula’s defense now ranks higher than McVay’s offense, which is sixth after a rough game against the Seahawks. Takeaway No. 3: Olsen was right.Olsen, serving as the No. 2 analyst for Fox, kept saying before the game that defenses needed to use pass-oriented personnel against the Seahawks’ heavier offensive looks, or else Darnold would keep shredding their coverages. The Rams joined Houston as the only Seattle opponents this season to deploy five defensive backs more frequently than four when the Seahawks played with one back and two tight ends. Two of the Rams’ 10 nickel defense plays against 12 personnel produced the two biggest EPA swings of the game: Kinchens’ interceptions in the first (+7.2 EPA) and third (+5.5) quarters. Those plays were worth far more than the single big run the Rams allowed on those plays, a 25-yarder by Kenneth Walker in the second quarter (1.6 EPA). Takeaway No. 4: The special teams irony was rich.The Seahawks rank first and the Rams rank last in special teams EPA, so it was notable when Rams punter Ethan Evans pinned Seattle inside its own 1-yard line on a 50-yard punt with 1:50 remaining in the fourth quarter, and when Seattle’s Jason Myers was penalized for kicking off short of the landing zone in the second quarter (in that case, Seattle’s defense produced a three-and-out and the Seahawks scored next, so no damage was done). Takeaway No. 5: Dec. 18 is circled on the calendar.Regulation nearly expired on Darnold as he completed his final pass, setting up Meyers’ 61-yard try at the game-winner. The kick wasn’t close, but the final score was — and surprisingly so, given all those Darnold interceptions and the Seahawks’ inability to finish drives with touchdowns (1 of 4 in the red zone). I think it attests to Seattle’s strength through all three phases of its roster, quarterback play permitting. The 2013 Denver Broncos, 2000 St. Louis Rams and these current Seahawks are the only teams since 2000 to have a point differential of at least 100 and a negative turnover differential through the first 10 games of a season. It’s a tough combination to pull off. |
| AFC WEST |
| DENVERIf you read that Coach Sean Payton picked up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, please understand that he spoke not a word, made not a gesture, didn’t even look at an official or opposing player. He was standing in the white sideline area and an official blindly ran into him – which is an “automatic flag for unsportsmanlike conduct” If you wish to see Sean Payton go down hard – and get a penalty – here |
| KANSAS CITYAs we have noted, the oddsmakers have persisted in quoting low odds for the Chiefs, persisting in listing them as Super Bowl favorites as late as last week despite the fact that their on-field performance left them not even in the playoffs – a necessity if a team is to actually win the Super Bowl on the field. Here is how things looked for the 5-4 Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs +550Philadelphia Eagles +750Detroit Lions +850Los Angeles Rams +850 With the loss to the Broncos, Kansas City is now 3½ games behind the NFC West-leading Broncos, with the Chargers still in second. There are three teams in the Wild Card slots at the moment and they need to catch and displace one of them – Jacksonville, the Chargers and Buffalo. The Chiefs have head-to-head losses to all three (although there is a re-match coming with the Chargers that could negate that). With that in mind, are the Chiefs still Super Bowl favorites? No! They have fallen all the way to a tie for 4th. We’ve noted the two Philadelphia Eagles +500Los Angeles Rams +600Buffalo Bills +850Indianapolis Colts +1000Kansas City Chiefs +1000Detroit Lions +1100Seattle Seahawks +1200Baltimore Ravens +1300Denver Broncos +1400Green Bay Packers +1500New England Patriots +1900Los Angeles Chargers +3300Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3300San Francisco 49ers +3500Chicago Bears +5000Houston Texans +5000Jacksonville Jaguars +5500 The Chiefs are 10 to 1. The top two seeds, at the moment, in the AFC are the 19-to-1 Patriots and the 14-to-1 Broncos.- – -What’s up with the Chiefs – the big problem is they have reverted to the mean in close games, actually reverted beyond it. @MySportsUpdate#Chiefs in one-score games: 2024: 11-02025: 0-5 Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com breaks down Kansas City’s potentially perilous path here. Excerpted below: Are the Chiefs broken?Deep breath … no. In fact, I don’t think there’s a huge difference on a play-by-play basis between this season’s Chiefs at 5-5 and last season’s team, which went 15-1 before sitting starters against the Broncos after clinching the AFC’s top seed. The measures we use to project underlying performance don’t see a dramatic gap between the two teams. Leaving the second Broncos game aside, the 2024 Chiefs won by an average of 6.1 points per game. Through 10 weeks, these 2025 Chiefs actually have a better point differential, winning by an average of 7.3 points per contest. They’ve lost the close ones, but their five victories have come by an average of 19 points, including substantial wins over the Lions and Ravens. The Pythagorean expectation formula would project the 2024 Chiefs to win 10.2 games over a full season and the 2025 Chiefs to win 11.7 games. How and when those points arrive matter, of course, but we know point differential is a better predictor of future win-loss record than the actual win-loss record. DVOA — which adjusts for down, distance, opponent and game situation — does an even better job of contextualizing team performance than point differential. Before the Week 18 Broncos game last season, the Chiefs were sitting sixth in the league in DVOA at a 21.4% mark. While their 2025 mark doesn’t yet include Sunday’s loss, the Chiefs went into the Broncos game fifth in the league in 2025 DVOA at 25.1%. ESPN’s FPI also endeavors to measure team strength by adjusting for what does and does not matter. Last season’s Chiefs finished the regular season sixth in FPI. Even with a 5-4 record, the Chiefs entered Sunday leading the league in FPI … and they are still No. 1 after Sunday’s loss. EPA agrees with the theme here, too. The Chiefs were 11th in EPA per play on offense a year ago and are all the way up to third this season. The defense has improved from 15th in EPA per play to 10th. The schedule has been tougher — the Chiefs faced the league’s 18th-toughest slate in 2024 and have been up against the fifth-toughest set of opponents so far this season — but that’s not enough to account for them going from 15-2 to a 5-5 mark at the midway point of the season. The difference, of course, is that the Chiefs always managed to find ways to win those close games in 2024. In August, I had the Chiefs on my annual list of teams likely to decline, which shouldn’t have surprised anyone; it’s almost impossible to win 15 or more games in back-to-back seasons, and I’ve been pegging teams with unsustainable records in one-score games as likely decline candidates for quite a long time now. (I still thought the Chiefs were going to win 12 games, which would now require them winning out.) When writing that piece, it was clear just how flimsy the Chiefs’ 15-win record was, in part because there wasn’t a formula. It would have been one thing if the Chiefs had won shootouts every week, or they had just fielded a truly dominant defense that kept every game a low-scoring affair, or even if their legendary quarterback had routinely made game-winning plays. But none of those things were true. It was something different and often unsustainable every week. What’s actually different (and worrying)?The Chiefs were generally solid on special teams last season and had a few key moments go their way. Chenal won a game with that block. Daniel Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal that would have given the Raiders a fourth-quarter lead. Wright’s field goal bounced off the uprights and in to decide a game. Kickers hit a league-low 81.8% of their field goal and extra point attempts in any situation against the Chiefs last season. They’re 33-of-35 (94.3%) this season. Between their various kickers last year, the Chiefs were 6-for-6 on field goal attempts to take the lead in the fourth quarter, which was three more successful conversions than any other team in the NFL. They have had a much sloppier operation this season, although it has been mostly in other, more subtle ways. Butker missed an extra point in the loss to the Chargers and a 58-yard field goal attempt in the three-point defeat to the Eagles. On Sunday, he had a kickoff land short of the landing zone, though it didn’t yield any points on the ensuing Broncos drive. Butker also crucially had an extra point blocked after the touchdown to go up 19-16 in the fourth quarter. Offensive tackle Wanya Morris lined up next to the center on the try, and while teams can overload offensive linemen on these block attempts, the Broncos actually twisted one of the linemen over Morris to the other side of the line, leaving him to help on just one defender. He didn’t get enough on that defender, Frank Crum, who ended up making a critical block. The entire endgame scenario might play out differently if the Broncos needed a touchdown as opposed to settling for a field goal. Spagnuolo’s conservative playcalling was fascinating to me, too. This is a coach who has made himself a legend by dialing up the right blitz at the right time, most recently to seal up the AFC Championship Game victory against the Bills in January. I can understand dropping into coverage and trying to get Nix to scramble his way into a mistake (and the second-year quarterback nearly did), but it seems out of character for what the Chiefs generally want to do in key spots on the defensive side of the ball. The decision might have been informed by the reality that the Chiefs just haven’t been a reliable or effective blitzing team this season. After Sunday’s loss, the Chiefs are last in the NFL in pressure rate (32.4%) when they send extra rushers to the quarterback. In 2024, they were ninth (44.0%). And unsurprisingly, if you’re not getting home with your blitzes, you’re not going to be a very good defense behind those calls. The Chiefs dropped from 10th last season in QBR when they blitz to 23rd this season. Nix was 6-of-8 for 113 yards against the blitz Sunday. It certainly feels like the Chiefs miss safety Justin Reid, who was such a physical presence and reliable tackler for them in the secondary last season before he left for the Saints in free agency. It feels like Spagnuolo is still sorting through who he wants to have on the field in key spots in the secondary, even though it’s mid-November. Trent McDuffie’s playing at a Pro Bowl level and can line up anywhere, while Watsonis locked in as an outside cornerback, but the Chiefs rotate just about everybody else and haven’t seemingly settled on every-down players. Third-round pick Nohl Williams, who has looked promising in limited duty, didn’t play a defensive snap Sunday. Bryan Cook, who had been coming off the field more often this season, was back to an every-down role for the first time since Week 2. Chris Roland-Wallace, who played some free safety earlier this season, spent all game around the line of scrimmage. Kristian Fulton, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Chiefs this offseason, returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 2 but allowed 21- and 35-yard completions across nine snaps. Sunday was very nearly the third time this season that Mahomes did something else that has become a major problem for the Chiefs — throwing interceptions in the red zone. He had two interceptions on 105 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line in 2024. Mahomes already has two on 63 attempts this season, and the only reason he doesn’t have a third is because Sunday’s interception by McMillan came on a play that started at the Denver 21-yard line. Kelce was responsible for one of those picks when he dropped a pass at the goal line against the Eagles, but Mahomes threw a brutal pick-six to Devin Lloyd against the Jaguars and then didn’t get enough on a throw while scrambling to the sideline on Sunday. The Broncos took the ensuing drive downfield for a touchdown. If we count the play from the 21-yard line as a honorary red zone pick, Mahomes has now thrown red zone interceptions in three of their five losses. Even if we just imagine the Chiefs settling for field goals in those spots, the picks have taken nine points off the field for Kansas City. The Eagles, Broncos and Jaguars turned those picks into TDs. That’s a collective 30-point swing in games that were all decided by three points or less. Are the Chiefs going to miss the playoffs?I don’t think so. FPI gives them a 55.4% chance of making the postseason. Obviously, there’s always the potential of Mahomes going down injured, which would tank Kansas City’s chances altogether. There’s a chance that we end up in some super tiebreaker that algorithms won’t encounter very often, which probably wouldn’t favor the Chiefs given their record against so many of the other teams in the wild-card hunt. And with their divisional odds down to 9.1%, the Chargers-Broncos rematch in Week 18 could be with the AFC West title on the line. It would take something truly drastic for the Chiefs to get back in that race, though we could have said the same thing about the Bills in 2023, and they managed to sneak ahead of the Dolphins in Week 18 for the AFC East title. With seven games to go, though, the schedule does get a little bit easier from here on out. The Colts are no pushovers and are coming off a bye of their own, although Daniel Jones has struggled badly over the past two weeks. The Chiefs get the Cowboys, Titans and Raiders on the road between now and the end of the year, and while there’s no such thing as a gimme game for a 5-5 team, the 2025 Chiefs have dominated bad teams in a way that the 2024 Chiefs did not. The Chiefs’ tougher games — the Colts, Texans, Chargers and that rematch with the Broncos — are all at Arrowhead. That’s a fortuitous turn of events. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Chiefs were favored in each of their seven remaining games. (Although that doesn’t mean they’ll win all seven.) More than anything, though, the evidence suggests that this is a pretty good football team that has had some very poor timing or sequencing. There isn’t any dominant team in the AFC. The Broncos deserved to win on Sunday and have a fantastic defense, but Nix has been incredibly inconsistent, and Denver has needed late comebacks to beat the likes of the Giants and Jets. The Bills have been sloppy and lost to the Falcons and Dolphins. The Ravens nearly handed a win to the Browns on Sunday. The Chargers were blown out by the Jaguars. The Colts haven’t been able to protect the football of late. The Patriots have played one of the easiest schedules in recent memory. I wrote at length about many of these teams last week, and these are obviously simplistic one-line analyses. But there’s no team with the sort of undeniable résumé we’ve seen from the great teams in the AFC in past years. Their record is disappointing, but I’m not sure the Chiefs are really much worse than any or all of those teams. And while they’re not going to suddenly start winning 100% of their close games again, keep in mind that regression toward the mean doesn’t suggest that a 10-0 team in one-score games is going to go 0-10 the following year. The simplest math would expect the Chiefs to win 50% of their close games. I would probably expect that their true talent level and win rate in those one-score contests is a little higher than 50-50. If they play five more one-score games from here on out, the Chiefs are more likely to finish 3-2 in those games than 0-5 or 5-0. Can they still win the Super Bowl?As someone who perennially picks the Chiefs to win the Lombardi Trophy — even in years where I simultaneously project their regular-season record to decline — I have to finish up by weighing this side of the equation. If the top tier in the AFC is really a blurry mess and I believe the Chiefs can still be part of it, it doesn’t seem outlandish to suggest that they could get hot and seriously compete in the postseason, as teams quarterbacked by the likes of Allen and Rodgers have done in the past. Has any team ever gone from 5-5 to a Super Bowl title? Well, one. When I talked about Brady earlier, I didn’t mention his 2001 Patriots, since Brady was a rookie and took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in Week 2. A loss to the Rams dropped the Patriots to 5-5 in mid-November, but it was the last time Bill Belichick’s team would come up short that season. The Patriots won their final six games of the regular season to finish 11-5 and claim a first-round bye. You’re probably familiar with what happened next. This ends with an upset victory over Warner’s Rams in the Super Bowl. The 2011 Giants were 6-6 before they got hot and won their second title over Brady’s Patriots, and the 1979 Rams made it to the Super Bowl and lost after starting 5-5. But there’s a reason teams without winning records this late into the season typically aren’t seen deep into the postseason: They usually aren’t very good. The Chiefs might be better than most, but going on the road and winning three times in January is a lot more difficult than hosting two games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs can pull it off if everything coalesces, but it seems more likely that they ride a luckier run of results down the stretch into the playoffs and come up short somewhere before Santa Clara. Mahomes and this Chiefs team are better than their record, but they might have already done too much damage to make it back to another title game this season. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CLEVELANDThe Ravens concussed QB DILLON GABRIEL – and Frank Schwab of YahooSports.comreviews the debut of rookie QB SHEDEUR SANDERS: Finally, a lot of fans got what they were waiting for. Sanders got his first NFL snaps for the Cleveland Browns. But in a tough situation, the results might not lead to some more snaps right away, unless Dillon Gabriel remains sidelined. Gabriel left with a concussion and Sanders came in, and the rookie fifth-round draft pick struggled until a drive late in the game after Mark Andrews’ fake tush push on fourth down resulted in a 35-yard touchdown run for Baltimore. Trailing by a touchdown, Sanders finally warmed up. He got the Browns into Ravens territory with a chance to tie the game. But he had one big miss, overthrowing an open receiver in the end zone. Another pass to the end zone was broken up on the next play. On fourth down, Sanders’ pass was batted down incomplete and the Ravens held on to a 23-16 win. Sanders’ final numbers were not pretty. He was 4-of-16 passing for 47 yards with an interception. That’s a 13.5 passer rating. He took two sacks as well. Perhaps Gabriel misses another game; many players who have been diagnosed with a concussion miss the next week’s game. But if Gabriel is ready, there’s no reason for the Browns to make a permanent switch anytime soon based on what they saw Sunday.– – -Good news for Bernie Kosar. The AP: Bernie Kosar is scheduled to receive a liver transplant Monday morning. The former University of Miami and Cleveland Browns star quarterback shared the good news in a social media post Sunday night. “Thank you all for the thoughts, prayers, and support — it truly means the world to me,” Kosar said in the post from his hospital bed. Kosar, 61, was set to receive a liver transplant last weekend, but said that it was delayed because the donor’s organ was infected. During the past week, he has undergone five procedures to stop internal bleeding. Kosar told Cleveland Magazine last year that he had been diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver and Parkinson’s disease. |
| PITTSBURGHPittsburgh awaits word on what QB AARON RODGERS did to his left wrist and how long it might keep him out. Brooke Pryor of ESPN.com, and she also covers how QB MASON RUDOLPH did quite well against Cincinnati’s leaky defense: The initial concern is that Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has “a slight break” in his left, non-throwing wrist, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The quarterback will undergo further testing Monday to determine the full extent of the injury and how long he’ll be sidelined, league sources told Schefter. Rodgers did not return to Sunday’s 34-12 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals after sustaining the injury late in the second quarter. Rodgers was initially declared to have a hand injury, but Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said afterward that Rodgers hurt his wrist. He’ll be further evaluated Monday morning, Tomlin said, adding that he talked to the veteran after the game. Rodgers also was spotted leaving the locker room. “He was excited about the win,” Tomlin said. “I just talked to him, but that’s all we talked about. We didn’t talk about his injury. We talked about the significance of the win.” Rodgers landed on his left wrist and hand as he was tackled after throwing the ball away on second-and-goal with just seconds left before halftime. He stayed in for one more play after a timeout, but his hand appeared to have blood on it when he went to the sideline for Chris Boswell’s successful 25-yard field goal attempt. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph said Rodgers told him at halftime that he would be starting the second half. “I saw what you guys saw, which was [Rodgers] kind of go down gingerly a little bit, but I wasn’t sure severity, and I’m still really not sure, either,” Rudolph said. “We talked in the locker room, and he told me, he gave me the finger — not the bad finger, but the index — and said you’re going in.” Though the Steelers ruled Rodgers questionable to return, he didn’t appear to return to the sideline after halftime. Tomlin said he didn’t know if the 41-year-old signal-caller could have returned in the second half. “I don’t have the answer to that to be honest with you,” the coach said. “I’ll have more information next time we talk.” With Rodgers out, Rudolph played the second half and led the offense to two scoring drives. He finished 12-of-16 passing for 127 yards and a touchdown on a 5-yard pass to Kenneth Gainwell in the fourth quarter. “Mason’s proven in the past what he showed today,” Tomlin said. “That’s why we value him as a member of this collective and are appreciative of his play — and certainly Kenny Gainwell made play after play for us, winning in the flat and so forth, but a lot of guys did.” |
| AFC EAST |
| BUFFALONot many QBs have had a better game with multiple interceptions than Bills QB JOSH ALLEN did on Sunday. Matt Perrino of Syracuse.com: Allen had Bills fans riding an epic roller coaster on Sunday, showcasing some inexplicable decisions and highlight-reel plays on his way to a six-touchdown performance. Allen had two interceptions in the first half. The first happened as he faced an unblocked blitzer bearing down on him in his own end zone. As he fought to avoid a safety, he tried a shovel pass to a crossing Joshua Palmer, but the pass was intercepted. Allen completed just 50% of his passes through three quarters and had a few head-scratching misses. He had Khalil Shakir wide open in the second quarter, but threw it about 5 yards too far. Allen also missed a wide-open Reggie Gilliam in the fourth quarter on what would have been a two-point conversion. The bad throws were concerning, but Allen fought through the rough start to provide some scintillating plays. He found Tyrell Shavers for a touchdown in the second quarter. Shavers was the Bills’ best receiver in the game, providing a spark to a struggling passing game. Allen threw for three scores and added three more on the ground. He set the NFL record for most career games (11) with at least three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. Allen is also the only NFL player in history to have three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a game twice in his career. |
| MIAMIA question from Joe Schad: @schadjoeIf you’re a Dolphins fan and you’re disappointed the team has won two straight and three of four I’m not sure what to say If you feel that way can you explain it? |
| NEW YORK JETSOn Sunday against the Ravens, the Jets will start a quarterback who can pass a bit. Bryan DeArdo of CBSSports.com: The New York Jets made a quarterback change, sitting at 2-8 on the season. First-year coach Aaron Glenn benched Justin Fields and will move forward with Tyrod Taylor as his starting quarterback, Jonathan Jones and Matt Zentiz report. Taylor, 36, is slated to make his second start of this season Sunday on against Ravens team riding a four-game winning streak. He played well in his first start this season, going 26 of 36 for 197 yards with two touchdowns and one interception during New York’s Week 3 loss to the Buccaneers. A 15-year veteran and former Pro Bowler, Taylor brings considerable experience to the Jets’ huddle. He has played in 97 regular season games that includes 59 career starts. While Taylor gets another opportunity to start, Fields heads to the bench roughly seven months after he signed a two-year deal with the Jets. A former first-round pick, Fields completed 62.7% of his passes this season with seven touchdowns and just one interception. The Jets went just 2-7 with Fields under center. Fields also comes off two of his worst games of the season; he went just 6 of 11 passing during the team’s Week 10 win over the Browns and completed fewer than 60% of his throws during last week’s loss to New England. 63.7% with 7 TDs and 1 INT doesn’t sound too bad if you haven’t actually watched Fields throw a football. |
| THIS AND THAT |
| KENNY EASLEYMike Sando of The Athletic remembers the late Kenny Easley, a Hall of Famer even with a shortened career who could have been the greatest: One of the greatest athletes in NFL history died Saturday. Here’s what you should know about Kenny Easley. Easley died after a 37-year battle with kidney failure that hit almost as hard as Easley did when news of his condition broke in 1988. He was 66. Easley was so great that other great players looked up to him, but because he played in the remote Seattle market long before the internet, and because his career was cut short by kidney failure at age 29, he never really got his due, reaching the Hall of Fame belatedly as a seniors candidate. The great Ronnie Lott said he aspired to be like Easley. Todd Christensen, the first tight end to record more than one season with at least 90 receptions, had this to say about Easley during a 2002 conversation: “It goes without saying what Ronnie did in his career, but in all candor — and this is no knock on Ronnie — Kenny Easley was a better football player.” Easley, 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, was part of the historic 1981 draft class featuring three Hall of Fame defenders among the top eight picks in Lawrence Taylor (No. 2), Easley (4) and Lott (8), plus Mike Singletary (38), Howie Long (48) and Rickey Jackson (51). Dennis Smith, one of the biggest hitters in league history, was also in that class at No. 15. Easley was a freak athlete among freak athletes. He was at once the most feared hitter in the NFL, its leader in interceptions and shifty enough to average 12.1 yards on 16 punt returns one season (then-coach Chuck Knox said he’d never had a starter volunteer for punt-return duties in a pinch, as Easley did in 1984, when he led the NFL with 10 interceptions, two of them returned for touchdowns). A scratch golfer, Easley would walk nine holes at the up-and-down track at Indian Canyon Golf Course near the Seahawks’ old training camp site in eastern Washington at dawn, then participate in grueling two-a-day practices under Knox back when hydration was a word associated more with material science than getting enough to drink. Terry Donahue, Easley’s old coach at UCLA, said he thought Easley could have been the sixth man on the basketball team there. Anyone who saw Easley play tennis thought he could have excelled in that sport as well. Then, he was suddenly finished. April 22, 1988 seemed like just another Friday until Easley, whose production had declined as his health deteriorated and offenses schemed away from him, submitted to a routine physical exam to facilitate his trade from Seattle to the then-Phoenix Cardinals. Tests conducted by the Cardinals showed Easley, who at one point was taking 16-20 ibuprofen tablets daily to overcome an ankle injury, had a creatinine toxicity level of 22, where anything above 10 was considered life-threatening (1.2 is considered high for men with average muscle mass). Doctors were surprised Easley was alive, let alone playing, with such a condition. Easley was forced to retire at 29 and undergo a kidney transplant. He sued team doctors, team trainers and the maker of Advil, eventually reaching a settlement. Embittered, he cut ties to the Seahawks until the team, under new ownership in the early 2000s, reached out and mended the relationship. “The reason (Easley) doesn’t get his due is just like Earl Campbell,” Lott said in an interview years ago. “They didn’t get that chance to play on a Super Bowl team. I know for a fact that the Niners, had they owned the fourth pick (in the 1981 draft), they would have taken Kenny Easley over Ronnie Lott. “That’s one of those things in sports, we see it all the time. We see great, great players that because of not winning or going to the Super Bowl, doesn’t put them in that category. And yet the guys who go to the Super Bowl want to be like him. The guys around the league want to be like him. That’s what you take away.” |
