If The Season Ended Today – the Colts are in the playoffs, but boy is it tight.

Baltimore         North       9-3         6-3

Kansas City    West        8-3         6-3

Jacksonville    South       8-3         6-2

Miami              East         7-3          5-2

Pittsburgh        WC1        7-4          5-3

Cleveland        WC2        7-4        5-3

Indianapolis     WC3        6-5         4-3

Houston                           6-5         3-3

Denver                             6-5         3-4

Buffalo                             6-6          3-5

Cincinnati                       5-6          1-6

Scott Kacsmar points out the three current Wild Card teams have less exciting QB situtations, than the first three on the outside looking in.

Peter King sizes things up:

Six weeks to go. Philadelphia, 10-1, with a two-game lead in the loss column over seven three-loss teams. Not dominating, but the Eagles find ways to win the nerve-wracking games. Wins by three over Buffalo, four over Kansas City and five over Dallas in the last three games, a play or two deciding every one of those games. (Sunday’s was a gem. More in a few grafs.) The Eagles and Bills looked like Super Bowl teams for swaths of Sunday’s game, and both have lost to Zach Wilson and the 4-7 Jets this year.

It’s such a weird, ridiculously tight league. The TV ratings are up, even as some of the biggest names (Burrow, Rodgers, Watson, Cousins, Jefferson, Chubb) get kayoed. I say it’s because every week, in all different windows, there are ratings magnets. In this month alone: Miami-Kansas City, Dallas-Philadelphia, Buffalo-Cincinnati, Denver-Buffalo (surprisingly), Cincinnati-Baltimore, Philadelphia-Kansas City, Jacksonville-Houston, Buffalo-Philadelphia. Next week is full of clunkers, but Niners-Eagles and Patrick Mahomes at the resurgent Packers will drive huge audiences.

The four teams best able to challenge Philadelphia:

San Francisco, 8-3. Niners are healthy for now, have scored 30 or more in seven of their eight wins, and travel to the Linc for the game of week 13.

Kansas City, 8-3, which is struggling a bit offensively, but doesn’t play a team with a winning record (as of today) in the last six weeks.

Baltimore, 9-3, which will be the best-rested of the prime contenders down the stretch with a bye this week. Ravens have one game in the next 20 days.

Dallas, 8-3. The Cowboys haven’t played well in January in recent years, but they are 4-2 in the last six games against the Eagles. They’re scoring 42 points a game over the last three.

The other top teams? Jacksonville’s won seven of eight, but the Jags had decisive home losses to Kansas City and San Francisco; a bit of a mystery there. Detroit looks to have peaked. Hard to put the Dolphins near the top when they’ve lost to the three best teams on their schedule. Pittsburgh and Cleveland? Quarterback issues. Houston and Denver are intriguing, and hot at the right time.

“Detroit looks to have peaked.”  Interesting.

See below for Bill Barnwell’s look at who will get the AFC playoff bye:

– – –

Peter King calls for the NFL’s players to go to the barricades to oppose an 18-game season:

I think Lloyd Howell’s biggest job as the new executive director of the NFL Players Association is to ensure the NFL doesn’t force through an 18-game season at some point in his tenure. When the league went to 17 games in 2021, it was clear Howell’s predecessor, De Smith, very much didn’t want 17 games but he let the players vote their consciences, and the new CBA narrowly passed, with a 17th game on every schedule. The 18th game cannot happen—unless the owners agree to three provisos:

* Every non-kicker will play a maximum of 17 regular-season games per year.

* Every outdoor stadium, and each indoor stadium that can be retrofitted, will have grass fields. (There will be exceptions for hybrid fields, such as in Green Bay, when keeping natural grass into January may not be realistic. The hybrid surface is mostly grass, with some artificial substance in it to promote longer life and better footing.)

* A joint NFL-NFLPA committee must approve all exceptions to fully natural-grass fields.

I think it’s easy to think if players voted for 17 games including more money per player, they’ll vote for 18, with more money per player. That’s where the NFLPA has to come in. In visits to teams—the executive director visits all 32 at least once a year—Howell has to convey to them that this is about their short- and long-term health. Smith didn’t want 17 games. But the middle-class and lower-paid players viewed it as a chance for another game check, and when you’re worried about how long an NFL life you’ll have, that’s an important consideration. That’s why Howell and the union have to get in front of this now, not in the heat of negotiations in six years or so.

I think seeing cornerstone players like Joe Burrow, Mark Andrews and Jaelan Phillips—not just good players, but top, top leaders on their teams—go down in an eight-day period puts an exclamation point on the fact that every player is playing Russian Roulette with his health in every game. An 18th game for a regular starter provides 65 more chances (the number of plays for each unit, on average, in a game) to get hurt. Easy for me to say, but if the players vote for an 18th game sometime down the road, they’ve lost the empathy factor from me when it comes to injuries.

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY

QB JORDAN LOVE may actually make it after all, and if he does Peter King credits the Green Bay Way:

The more I watched Love the other day, the more I thought how smart the Packer way of developing quarterbacks is. We don’t know yet if Love is going to make it. But the signs are promising. Obviously Favre didn’t sit when GM Ron Wolf traded for him in 1992, but Rodgers did and it helped him mightily. Love sat the same three years, and watching him beat the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving and make some of the downfield throws he made, it’s clear his apprenticeship under Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers was a big help.

NFC EAST

NEW YORK GIANTS

This from Peter King in the Victory Heals All Wounds file:

“Hey Wink! Game ball, buddy.”

–Giants coach Brian Daboll, in what might have been (was?) the message of the weekend in the NFL, giving defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale the game ball after the 10-7 win over New England—and after Jay Glazer reported on Fox about friction between Martindale and Daboll.

– – –

GM Joe Schoen has this for all those speculating the Giants will be seeking a QB with the high pick they are earning in 2023. Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com:

The New York Giants came out during their bye week and stated they still look at injured quarterback Daniel Jones as their starter, when he is healthy.

Jones, 26, tore the ACL is his right knee earlier this month against the Las Vegas Raiders. He had surgery last week.

“The expectations is that when Daniel [Jones] is healthy, he will be our starting quarterback,” general manager Joe Schoen said.

The Giants signed Jones to a four-year, $160 million deal this offseason. He’s guaranteed $35.5 million next year, but they could get out of the deal fairly reasonably after the 2024 season.

New York is going to have to address the quarterback position in some capacity given the uncertainty with Jones. His recovery from the torn knee ligament could take up until the summer or beyond.

“We’re still going to have to address the position at some point because there is no guarantee he’s going to be back for Week 1,” Schoen said.

Where that quarterback will come from (or if he’s already on the roster) remains an unknown.

“That will be a position, obviously there are different avenues — free agency or the draft — but we’ll have to address it at some point,” Schoen said.

The Giants still have undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito under contract for next season. But veteran backup Tyrod Taylor will be a free agent.

There also remains a possibility the Giants could address the position in the draft. Declaring Jones their starter (when healthy) doesn’t preclude them from going that route.

“No, it doesn’t,” Schoen said. “I think we’re going to have to do something with the quarterback, whether it’s in free agency or the draft.”

The Giants (4-8) are currently projected to select fourth in the 2024 NFL draft, per ESPN Analytics. But they have just a 0.6% chance of selecting first and 97.8% chance of being in the Top 10.

Schoen wouldn’t rule out a quarterback in the first round. He even mentioned specifically studying the quarterbacks taken at the top of the 2018 draft, how many of them are still starting, on winning teams and out of the league.

It at least shows the Giants’ brass is contemplating a first-round QB.

“We’ll take the best player available,” Schoen said. “If the best player available for our team is at a certain position, we’ll take it. We won’t shy away from it. That’s a ways away, the draft in April.”

Jones struggled this season after a strong 2022 that saw him finish sixth in the NFL in QBR and win a playoff game. He threw two touchdown passes to six interceptions in his six starts this year.

But the Giants still have confidence that last season was not an outlier.

“I’ve seen it. You guys all saw last season. He won 10 games, he won a road playoff game for the Giants,” Schoen said. “You guys saw the preseason. I just think we got punched in the nose early on and dug ourselves a hole and we weren’t able to get out of it. We’re still trying to right now. Still believe in Daniel the person.”

PHILADELPHIA

Fun facts:

@JamesPalmerTV

The Eagles are 5-0 this season when trailing at halftime.

The rest of the NFL: 35-129

@NFLResearch

@WerderEdESPN

#Eagles PK Jake Elliott is now 3-of-3 in his career on kicks of 59+ yards.

He has never missed a game-tying or go-ahead FGA in the final 2 mins of regulation or in OT, per @ESPNStatsInfo

He’s now 9 for 9.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA

Frank Reich is less-than-one-and-done.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Frank Reich’s tenure in Carolina lasted just 11 games.

The Panthers fired the head coach on Monday after a 1-10 start to the 2023 season, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported, per sources informed of the situation.

Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor takes over as the interim head coach, per Rapoport.

The club later confirmed the move, announcing senior assistant Jim Caldwell will be a special advisor to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who will resume play-calling.

“I met with Coach Reich this morning and informed him that he will not continue as head coach of the Carolina Panthers,” owner David Tepper said in a statement on Monday. “I want to thank Frank for his dedication and service, and we wish him well. Effective immediately, Special Teams Coordinator Chris Tabor will serve as our interim head coach. Senior Assistant Jim Caldwell will be a special advisor to Offensive Coordinator Thomas Brown, who will take over play calling duties.”

It’s been a rough first season for Reich in Carolina as the Panthers showed little signs of growth. Things boiled over after several in-game mismanagement issues in Sunday’s 17-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans.

The issues were enough for Tepper to move on from Reich after just 11 games.

Panthers HC Frank Reich taking back play-calling duties after giving them to OC Thomas Brown

Reich’s offense has been a slog, bogged down by poor blocking, a non-existent run game, and a receiver crew lacking in playmakers. Worst of all were the struggles of No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. The quarterback has displayed poor habits amid the losing and rarely has flashed playmaking ability. The coach handing off play-calling to Brown and then taking them back didn’t help the inconsistent offense.

The Panthers have a bottom-four scoring (15.7; 29th) and total offense (265.9; 30th) in 2023. Under Reich, the club averaged 92.6 rushing YPG (29th) and has three rushing touchdowns (T-fewest).

Carolina sits with a -119 point margin in 2023, 31st in the NFL, and has scored 15 or fewer points in seven games (T-second-most in NFL).

Given the investment the Panthers made in Young, including giving up a 2024 first-round pick, which currently sits No. 1 overall, seeing progress from the young signal-caller is paramount in the final six games. Ownership clearly didn’t believe the development would come with Reich running things. Now it’s on Brown and Caldwell to change the narrative down the stretch.

Reich, who the Indianapolis Colts dismissed after Week 9, 2022, became the third head coach in NFL history to be fired in back-to-back seasons — Chip Kelly (Eagles and 49ers) and Ray Rhodes (Eagles and Packers).

Neither Kelly or Rhodes were fired during the season in back-to-back seasons.  That distinction belongs to Reich.

Kelly’s firings led to Doug Pederson and a Super Bowl win and Jim Harbaugh and a run of excellence that included a Super Bowl trip.

Rhodes, fired at end of 1998 and 1999, was followed by Hall of Famer in waiting Andy Reid in Philadelphia and Mike Sherman who had four playoff appearances in his six seasons at Packers helm.

We shall see what David Tepper turns up in his 3^rd coaching search in 5 seasons.

A DB correspondent, wallowing in being hailed as a victor, wonders if Reich could be the first of a clean-sweep of NFC South coaches shown the door this year.  After Sunday’s results Dennis Allen of the Saints and Todd Bowles of the Buccaneers have to be considerations.  Someone will win the division, so maybe Arthur Smith survives.

Frank Reich reacts with, surprise, kind words for Tepper.  David Newton of ESPN.com:

“There’s a heart-pounding disappointment in not hitting the marks that we needed to hit to keep this going and try to get it turned around,” Reich, who has a career record of 41-43-1, told The Charlotte Observer on Monday. “It hurts me for the guys, the team, the coaches and the fans.”

According to ESPN Stats & Information research, there have only been six NFL head coaches since the merger who didn’t finish their first season with their team, with three of those instances having come in the past three seasons: Urban Meyer (Jaguars), Nathaniel Hackett (Broncos) and Reich.

Reich, who turns 62 next week, was fired after the offense produced 15 or fewer points for the fifth straight week and seventh time in 11 games.

The offense produced only 10 points in each of the past two games after Reich reclaimed the playcalling duties from Brown only three games after turning them over to him.

After Sunday’s game, Tepper left the locker room shaking his head in disgust and was heard by multiple reporters yelling “F—!”

“I want to convey that I have nothing but positive thoughts about Mr. Tepper,” Reich told The Charlotte Observer. “On a personal level, I saw a side of him that I deeply respect and care about. But the NFL is a meritocracy. It’s not unconditional love. I understand from a professional standpoint Mr. Tepper is going to have certain standards that he expects to have met. I have no hard feelings, and my personal relationship with him was actually a real highlight of this short time.”

Reich was not the only one:

@DNewtonespn

Panthers make it official that RB coach Duce Staley and QB coach Josh McCown have been fired as well. They are doing all they can to fix Bryce Young over the next six games.

– – –

An editorial from Mike Florio:

There’s no test for becoming an owner. No exam. No personality evaluation. No assessment of whether the person will be a good owner or not a good owner.

There’s only one factor: Can you come up with the money?

It’s a basic reality for every fan base. You’re stuck with the owner, and in many cases the owner is simply the person who came up with the money — or a family member of that person.

Few owners spend their lives in football. Few owners know what they’re doing when it comes to football decisions. Many owners who made billions in some other line of work believe they’re good enough, smart enough, and will work hard enough to make magic happen again.

David Tepper is the current example of the NFL owner most out of his element and least willing to admit it. He made billions playing money games. He thinks those skills will allow him to win plenty of football games. They don’t and they won’t.

He’s too involved. He’s trying too hard. He’s caring too much. He’s too impulsive. He’s too impatient. And Panthers fans are the ones who have to deal with it.

Maybe he’ll learn. Maybe he’ll grow. Maybe he’ll mature as an owner. Maybe he’ll hire a coach and get out of the way. Maybe he won’t put a thumb on the scale when it comes to picking a quarterback. Maybe he’ll just be a glorified fan who (like all fans) rolls with the punches and (unlike any other fan) counts the money.

Panthers fans can only hope he’ll figure it out. Tepper went to Carnegie Mellon, so we know he’s smart. (I did, too. So there’s that.) But he’s not emotionally intelligent. He’s not a people person. He adds stress and strain to the workplace with his presence, his demeanor, his words, his reactions.

And he either doesn’t know it or he doesn’t care.

Maybe it’s too late for him to change. If so, Panthers fans are going to have to wait a long, long time for things to improve.

NEW ORLEANS

The Saints aren’t getting it done with QB DEREK CARR:

@JoshDubowAP

UPDATED: Saints have scored 3 TDs on their last 32 possessions. The TDs came on:

2 TD passes from Jameis Winston (when Carr was hurt)

1 TD pass from Taysom Hill (with Carr on sideline)

TAMPA BAY

QB BAKER MAYFIELD gutted out the loss at Indy.  Now he’s has an MRI on Monday.  River Wells of USA TODAY:

Baker Mayfield is set to be examined for an ankle injury that occurred toward the end of Tampa Bay’s first drive against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

Mayfield attempted a quarterback sneak against the Colts within striking distance of the goal line. The play went for no gain, but Mayfield went down on the play and held his ankle as trainers attended to him. He limped off the field and was examined in the medical tent, but he returned to the game on the next drive and finished it out. After the game, Mayfield told reporters that the injury was hurting more after the adrenaline wore off and that he was set to get an MRI upon flying back to Tampa Bay according to ESPN reporter Jenna Laine.

If Mayfield is unable to play, the honor would go to Kyle Trask, who subbed in for him on the drive he was injured.

AFC WEST

DENVER

Peter King with a crazy number:

The Broncos allowed 70 points in week three. They’ve allowed 80 in their last five. Here’s a surprise: They lost the 70-point game. They won all five of the reborn ones.

LAS VEGAS

This probably isn’t about performance.  A tweet from Vic Tafur:

@VicTafur

Breaking: The Raiders have released CB Marcus Peters. He had a interception return for a TD in Week 8, but was benched last night. The move saves the team $1.5 million in incentives that Peters was on pace to earn.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

Peter King on an advantage for the AFC leaders:

The Ravens have a major schedule edge upcoming: one game in the next 20 days. Gotta love the week 13 bye.

Of course, they have two in the next 21 days.  It’s not really as stark as King paints it.  Off this week, then the Rams in Week 14.

Actually, as we look at it – Baltimore’s last five games are pretty tough – resurgent Rams, at AFC South leaders Jacksonville, at NFC West leaders San Francisco, AFC South leaders Miami and division rivals Pittsburgh.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

Plenty about the Bills and their belief that they were on the wrong end of the Shawn Hochuli crew.

But there was an angry team and its fan base in Houston.  Jim Sheridan in The Sun:

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was looking to lead his team to a comeback victory after Houston went in at half-time 13-7 down.

The Texans stormed back in the second half and were desperate to get the ball back late in the contest.

Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence looked for his favorite target Calvin Ridley as Jacksonville went for a crucial third down to try ice the game.

Ridley grappled with Nelson, who appeared to lightly pull the Jags wideout twice on the jersey during the play.

To the disbelief of the Texans sideline, officials threw flags and penalized Nelson for defensive holding.

The call gave the Jags a fresh set of downs instead of a 4th-and-long.

They would ultimately hold out and improve to 8-3 on the NFL season.

But fans took to social media to rail against the officials, with some wildly claiming the NFL is “rigged.”

One fan raged on X, formerly known as Twitter: “That’s a BRUTALLY BAD CALL on Steven Nelson for defensive holding. Instead of 4th & long, it’s 1st down. Holy cr*p. The missed calls. The phantom calls. The bad calls. This crew has been awful.”

Another said: “No surprise. The NFL stepping in when teams can’t do it themselves. Texans aren’t following their script this season.”

While a third added: “This could be the worst call of all time

And a fourth commented: “NFL is rigged.”

But a fifth countered: “Obviously a flag.”

Following the game, the Texans’ locker room appeared to agree with their fuming fanbase.

Per ESPN’s Paul Gallant, one player called the officiating in the game the “worst” he’d ever experienced.

Receiver Tank Dell was flagged out on a play when he appeared to be in bounds, while a late game-tying field goal fell agonizingly short as the Texans pushed for overtime.

Gallant wrote on his X account: “General sentiment from the #Texans locker room: they weren’t thrilled with the calls against their DBs.

“One player said it was the worst officiated game he’d seen in his entire life.”

Stroud passed for more than 300 yards for the fourth-straight game, tossing 2 touchdowns to take his rookie tally to 19.

He now has a remarkable 3,266 yards through 11 games, with just 5 interceptions.

Although it sounds like it was the downfield, out of the referee’s sight, who were causing most of the controversy, we will note that it was the crew of Clay Martin that created the firestorm.

JACKSONVILLE

Peter King sees Jaguars-Texans as a great rivalry in 2024 and beyond:

No question there are issues about the Jags on the biggest stage: They’ve lost at home to KC, Houston and San Francisco by a combined 59 points. But they avenged one of those losses by winning 24-21 at Houston Sunday. Watching this game, I got the feeling that this year’s the birth of one of the great new rivalries in the game: Trevor Lawrence, 24, and the youthful Jags versus 22-year-old C.J. Stroud and the suddenly electric Texans. “It’s gonna be a fun matchup hopefully for years,” Lawrence told me after Sunday’s game.

But that’s not really the way Lawrence would prefer the division rivalries to go. “I always want every team in our division to be as bad as possible,” Lawrence said. “That’s better for us. But no, I do think it’s gonna be fun to play them twice a year.”

The most interesting sequence in this game, and I think it’s a sign of things to come, happened with Houston up 14-13 and Jacksonville on the Texans’ one-yard line late in the third quarter. Calvin Ridley ran a rub post-route, got free of his man, and Lawrence hit him for a well-designed one-yard TD. At 19-13 now, Doug Pederson decided to go for two. Ridley again lined up left, alone this time. He juked the corner off the line and ran the same post-route. Again, easy. The two-point conversion made it 21-14, and Jacksonville never trailed. It’s a great example of why the Jags traded for Ridley last year when he was suspended for gambling. He’s a number one receiver, smart and competitive, and he was huge in this game. “In games like this,” Lawrence said, “you gotta make those plays down the stretch. It’s players, not plays. It’s about the guys you trust and have faith in just going and making a play.”

Also impressive: Lawrence wasn’t sacked and faced a low 18-percent pressure rate against a good pass-rush team. The Jags are 7-1 in their last eight, but the one (Niners 34, Jags 3) won’t easily be forgotten.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

At 6-5, the Bills didn’t need to run into the Eagles and their crowd, plus the officiating crew of Shawn Hochuli.  Tim Graham of The Athletic speaks for Bills Mafia.

Never once in my career, at least not that I can recall, have I ever written a column trashing an officiating performance.

Until now.

The Buffalo Bills didn’t lose Sunday specifically because of referee Shawn Hochuli’s crew. They had prime chances to upset the Philadelphia Eagles and nab a victory to return a wayward season back on the playoff track.

Bills tailback James Cook dropped a would-be touchdown pass in the first quarter. Proud safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer let a guy with six catches score a devastating fourth-quarter touchdown on third-and-15. The defense failed to protect leads with 1:52 left in the fourth quarter and 5:52 remaining in overtime. Tyler Bass missed two field goals.

But, like a Keith Moon drum solo, the NFL’s part-time officials relentlessly thumped the Bills in a soul-bruising, 37-34 defeat.

By halftime, the Bills already had been penalized 10 times (one fewer than their worst game all season and three away from matching their worst game in eight years) for 75 yards. Miraculously, they were docked only once for 5 yards in the second half and overtime.

The Eagles’ second penalty, meanwhile, came on their final possession of the fourth quarter. They finished with four penalties for 30 yards.

For only the sixth time in Bills history, they amassed at least 170 yards rushing and 330 yards passing. They had been undefeated in such games, as one would expect.

But winning is virtually impossible when officials make recurring, cockamamie decisions.

Poyer didn’t bring up officiating when speaking with me about what went wrong. He bemoaned the defense not being able to close out the reigning NFC champs despite two late leads. Then, I asked him what role officiating plays in winning and losing.

“A lot. A lot. A lot,” said Poyer, a longtime Bills captain. “It seems like it’s been like that all season. Nothing’s being done about it. Officials aren’t being held accountable for their calls or no-calls. Players are getting fined during the week for silly stuff.

“It doesn’t seem like, I don’t know … It’s not an excuse, but it’s just the way the game is being played this year. Doesn’t seem like a whole lot of accountability for the officials.”

The Bills’ season remains viable, but barely. They enter their bye week at 6-6, three spots out of the playoff picture and holding precious few tiebreakers because of their lousy conference record. Their next game is against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.

Yet anything still feels possible in the murky AFC. The Bills haven’t shown a hint of quit, not even as pressure and injuries accumulate. They’ve seen teammates driven out of Highmark Stadium in ambulances, but there’s only so much a team can overcome.

“You need luck on your side and some great referees making better calls,” Bills edge rusher Leonard Floyd said with a side-eye grin.

I asked the eighth-year pro if he’d like to elaborate.

“It was s—–,” Floyd blurted. “But I ain’t going to go there. We should’ve won.”

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, although bad officiating sours many on sports. People commit their time, money and emotions to watching games in their free times and too often come away feeling cheated. Add another layer of disgust for those who’ve wagered, which the NFL constantly entices their fans to do.

Philadelphia is 5-0 with Hochuli’s crew and has covered the spread each time.

Bills coach Sean McDermott declined to comment when asked to assess the officiating Sunday, but he gave a glimpse into his thinking on a particular play that stalled the game and his offense right before halftime.

On second-and-goal from Philly’s 3-yard line, linebacker Hasson Reddick caught Josh Allen and nearly slung him to the grass. Right before Allen’s right elbow hit the ground, he released the ball for what he thought should be an incomplete pass. Many watching thought Reddick should have been flagged for a horse collar tackle.

Neither happened. Hochuli and his crew huddled and eventually ruled intentional grounding only.

“He’s responsible for where the ball goes given that he started his throwing motion after he was contacted,” Hochuli told a pool reporter after the game. “So we didn’t feel like the ball was in the vicinity or the area of an eligible receiver.”

The Bills believe receiver Gabriel Davis was close enough.

“They said that Gabe was not in the area,” McDermott said. “From the information I got, Gabe was in the area.”

Hochuli explained the decision not to call the horse collar was because it was deemed Reddick’s “force was from the front of the collar and what pulled him down was not from the back. So that’s pretty much it. We felt that he was pulled down from the front of the jersey and collar.” True enough, Allen’s collar was stretched and torn in front, likely influencing Hochuli’s decision to swallow his whistle on the call.

Rather than a likely touchdown, Buffalo tried a 34-yard field goal. Bass’ kick was blocked. No points.

An earlier non-call that irked Bills fans would have extended a drive. On third-and-8 from his 41, Allen threw 19 yards downfield to Trent Sherfield on a crossing route. Eagles cornerback Darius Slay clearly made contact before the ball arrived. Interference should have given Buffalo a first down at Philly’s 40. Buffalo punted instead.

“It’s the game that we play,” Sherfield said. “The refs have a job to do, and I have a job to do. I’m not here to critique anybody. I think there’s always going to be some missed calls every single game.

“I don’t expect them to be perfect, but I guess today it just didn’t go our way with some of the calls that we had. It is what it is.”

A subjective call — unsurprisingly after 66 minutes of watching these officials work — went Philly’s way while Buffalo led by three points in overtime. On second-and-3 from Buffalo’s 39, Jalen Hurts threw to star receiver A.J. Brown, who had the ball in his mitts and got his feet down seemingly long enough to take possession before linebacker Tyrel Dodson knocked it to the ground for a game-ending Buffalo recovery. But the pass was ruled incomplete, and the ball was ready to be snapped so fast that NFL video replay officials couldn’t have properly scrutinized whether it was a fumble.

Rest assured, the Bills committed several obvious penalties that caused damage.

In the first quarter, back-to-back false starts from right tackle Spencer Brown and center Mitch Morse turned a third-and-6 into a third-and-16, leading to a Sam Martin punt that should have given Philly possession at its own 12, but a Siran Neal facemask penalty moved them forward a chunk. On the Eagles’ ensuing possession, cornerback Rasul Douglas was called for defensive holding on a third-and-10 incompletion, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips jumped across the line before the Eagles could Brotherly Shove on fourth-and-1 and defensive tackle Ed Oliver was flagged for illegal hands to the face to set up first-and-goal from the 1 and Hurts’ TD plunge.

That was six Buffalo penalties for 37 yards within just 5:30 of game clock.

The NFL’s margin of error is too minuscule to overcome such repeated missteps, and the officials’ subjective errors made matters plain disgusting for the Bills.

“At the end of the day, you have to take the officials out of it,” McDermott said. “That’s what you’ve got to do if you’re going to play.”

Buffalo must be damn near perfect the rest of the way to beat not only a daunting homestretch schedule, but also — if this holds up — the folks in stripes.

“The rest of the season is do or die,” Floyd said. “Everybody’s got to step up the intensity, the overall want-to. You’ve got to rise to another level to get where we want.

“Momentum’s got to shift. All 11 guys have to sacrifice, whatever it takes to get the win, no mental errors from nobody.”

That’s a healthy attitude. The Bills have five games to play regardless of whether they get a fair shake from the officials. Players and coaches may as well concentrate on all they control and not waste energy on fickle arbiters.

Yet for the rest of us, on atrocious days like these, it’s easy to feel like this supposedly enjoyable endeavor is a mere waste of time.

This from Ed Werder:

@WerderEdESPN

Josh Allen’s team has lost all six overtime games he’s played. But I would suggest that once again, the #Bills defense was more responsible for their failure against the Eagles.

They allowed game-tying field goal end of regulation.

Game-winning TD in OT.

NEW YORK JETS

Peter King tries to discern the mind and body of QB AARON RODGERS:

Five things about Rodgers and his possible return to play:

1. Wednesday is the 10-week anniversary of the surgery to repair his torn Achilles. No NFL player has come back from a fully torn Achilles (despite what some have said, Rodgers’ injury was definitely a complete tear) faster than running back Cam Akers, who got the all-clear to return to play four months and two weeks after his surgery. If Rodgers does return to play for the Jets in late December, his return would be in approximately three months and two weeks.

2. Rodgers turns 40 Saturday. He knows the clock is ticking on his football life. Most people would think it’s nonsensical to return to football without a longer time to rehab the injury, and it may be nonsensical in the grand scheme of things. Rodgers is famously his own person on most things. I think it’s highly unlikely he’d return if his surgeon or the Jets’ doctors are strongly against it—particularly the highly respected surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache. But Rodgers also has pangs about how much the Jets bent their organization, team and locker room to his desires when the Packers traded him to New York. He believes in the ethos of the locker room and knows other players play with pain and sometimes risk further injury by playing. If he can be sure he is reasonably recovered, without a significant risk of re-tearing the Achilles, I think he’d strongly consider playing, whatever the Jets’ record is. I think he may feel a personal need to come back to a team that remade itself for him and is struggling incredibly with terrible quarterback play since he was lost in the first game of the season.

3. You and I might think that’s stupid. But you and I are not Aaron Rodgers. And I don’t think ElAttrache would put his reputation on the line by letting Rodgers play if he felt there was a major risk of tearing the Achilles.

4. Re: returning to practice, which Rodgers may do this week or next: A quarterback can practice at different levels of intensity. He’s not going to be hit. He’s not going to be running full speed to escape the rush. Rodgers would be able to manage his effort during practice, and I’m sure he would be aware of what is going too far when he gets on the field.

5. No one knows for sure if Rodgers’ injury will be healed enough so he can play, say, in the week 16 home game on Christmas Eve against Washington. No one, including Rodgers, knows if he’ll be fit enough to play a month from now. He, and the doctors, will see if the repair can tolerate the kind of physical activity playing quarterback would require. That is the huge key: Will the doctors, after he practices and tests the Achilles over the next month, give him the green light?

As Rodgers has said all along, he just wants to have a chance to make it back. This next month will be about giving him that chance—however short-sighted it seems to the rest of the world.

THIS AND THAT

THE RACE FOR THE AFC’S TOP SEED

Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com.  As usual with Barnwell, some editing:

There’s a fun race developing for some of the most valuable real estate in sports. Since the NFL moved to a 14-team playoff field and limited the first-round bye to the top seed in each conference during the 2020 season, landing that bye has been incredibly valuable for teams with Super Bowl aspirations. In a small sample of six teams, four 1-seeds have advanced to the championship game. That group includes both top seeds a year ago, with the Chiefs and Eagles both enjoying a week off before storming into Arizona for a classic Super Bowl.

While those same Eagles hold a two-game lead for the top spot in the NFC, the No. 1 spot in the AFC remains up for grabs. Three different teams held the 1-seed in the AFC at one point or another Sunday. The Jaguars claimed it after the early games with their narrow win over the Texans. A comeback victory by the Chiefs over the Raiders put Patrick Mahomes & Co. in front after the afternoon games. When the Ravens claimed the night game with a victory over the Chargers, John Harbaugh’s team ensured it will hit its upcoming bye atop the conference.

Throw in the Dolphins, who blew out the Jets in the NFL’s Black Friday debut, and there are four three-loss teams in the conference. With all due respect to the Browns, Steelers and everyone else in the conference, it’s extremely likely the top seed in the AFC will come from one of those three-loss teams riding high atop their respective divisions.

Let’s break down that race with six weeks to go. What happened to these teams in Week 12? What’s going on with them this season? And what does their path to the top seed in the AFC look like over the next month and a half? I’ll also include the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) odds for each team to get the 1-seed. We’ll start with the team with the best chance to land it:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)

Week 12 result: Beat Raiders 31-17

Chances of being the 1-seed, per FPI: 42.2%

As is often the case for the Chiefs, the Raiders served as an opportunity to get right after a difficult loss. During Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City, Kansas City has gone 18-3 against its division rivals, including a 6-1 record in games against the Raiders after a defeat. Sunday’s win was basically a typical matchup between these two teams, as the Chiefs have won the average contest between these two games by a score of 33-19. It wasn’t a breeze — Las Vegas went up 14-0 early in the second quarter — but the Chiefs scored touchdowns on four of their next five possessions to take control.

I talked earlier this season about the Chiefs’ defense and how it has thrived. While the Eagles gave Kansas City trouble last week in what ended up as a narrow Philly victory, the defense continues to be the cornerstone. The Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed, ensconced between the 49ers in fourth and the Jets in sixth. They rank fourth in points allowed per drive. Josh Jacobs might have gotten them for a long touchdown run Sunday, but the Chiefs are very, very good on defense.

My one concern with the Chiefs on paper might have been their pass rush, but they rank third in sack rate. Chris Jones naturally leads the way and was the best player on the field in that Eagles game, but he’s getting more help. Second-year edge rusher George Karlaftis actually leads the team with eight sacks and 26 initial pressures, although Jones missed the first game of the season. Budding star cornerback Trent McDuffie has rushed the passer only 44 times, but he has been a difference-maker with those blitzes, producing two sacks and eight pressures. He has forced five fumbles, although four of those have been after catches.

Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been more aggressive in allowing corner L’Jarius Sneed to shadow top receivers. The results have been impressive. Sneed was the primary defender holding A.J. Brown to one catch for 8 yards in the Eagles game, and while Davante Adams gave Sneed trouble early Sunday, the wideout finished with five catches for 73 yards. No No. 1 receiver has managed 50 yards and a touchdown against Kansas City since Amon-Ra St. Brown got there in the opener.

Strangely, the Chiefs have found their offense to be lacking in key moments. Drops from wide receivers have been the most pressing problem; a Kadarius Toney drop led to a game-changing pick-six in the Week 1 loss to the Lions, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a would-be touchdown pass late in the defeat against Philadelphia.

What looked like a weakness for the Chiefs heading into the season has been even worse in reality. Toney has been unable to stay healthy or make consistent plays. For all the hype about how he looked during the offseason, Skyy Moore hasn’t been able to draw targets and hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards in a game since September. Rookie second-round pick Rashee Rice has flashed and just had his first 100-yard game Sunday, but the Chiefs weren’t anticipating that Rice and former Bucs backup Justin Watson would be leading the wideouts in routes on a weekly basis.

Can the Chiefs win a Super Bowl with this sort of receiving corps? Yes. We saw them do it last season. That team had JuJu Smith-Schuster instead of Rice, but given how the wideout-needy Patriots have marginalized Smith-Schuster this season, I doubt losing him in free agency has sunk Kansas City at the position.

The 2022 Chiefs had tight end Travis Kelce put up a dominant season, producing 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. While he has been all over the headlines this season, it hasn’t necessarily been because of his play. As Kelce has struggled for consistency — and missed the Week 1 loss to the Lions with a knee injury — has he taken a step backward? It didn’t appear he had been as impactful as the player who took over games last season.

A closer look at the data suggests Kelce hasn’t dropped off. In 2022, the future Hall of Famer averaged 2.44 yards per route run, which ranked 11th in the league among all receivers. In 2023? After a solid Week 12, he’s actually up to 2.52 yards per route run, which is … 14th among all receivers. He was targeted on 28.5% of his routes last season and is actually seeing the ball more often this season, with a target rate just north of 30%. On a snap-by-snap basis, he is better than the guy we saw a year ago.

The difference? He’s not playing as many snaps. Reid has steadily brought down Kelce’s snap share. After playing a career-high 95% of the snaps during Mahomes’ first season as a starter in 2018, his share of the workload has dropped in each of the ensuing seasons. He was at 93% in 2019, 86% in 2020, 82% in 2021, and 80% in 2022. (Those numbers don’t include the games he missed because of COVID or sat out while resting.)

This season, leaving aside the Week 1 game, Kelce had played only about 71% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs before the Eagles game. Unsurprisingly, in a close contest against a great opponent, Reid upped his snap share for that game to 94%, with Kelce playing nearly 20 more snaps than he had in any other game. On Sunday, he was back down to 76% of the offensive snaps. He’s now at 74% for the entire season and running about 29 routes per game, down from just over 32 routes per contest a year ago.

The Philadelphia game should tell us what we need to know. Reid is going to up Kelce’s snap rate when the games matter most, which should be no surprise. The good news for Chiefs fans — and their best case for finishing yet again as the top seed in the AFC — is there might not be many games taxing Kelce until the postseason.

What’s next: The Chiefs have the easiest schedule remaining of these four contenders for the top spot in the AFC. A December and January run-in that might have looked tricky on paper over the summer looks much easier in reality, as they don’t have a single remaining contest against a team with a winning record.

The Bills have dropped to .500, while the Chargers are three games below. The rematch of what has become one of the league’s best rivalries will be muted with Jake Browning filling in for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, while the Chiefs also host the aforementioned Raiders and travel to play a flailing Patriots team. It’s hardly out of the question that Kansas City runs the table and finishes 14-3.

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)

Week 12 result: Beat Chargers 20-10

Chances of being the 1-seed, per FPI: 22.5%

Winning is rarely a pretty endeavor for the Ravens, but pretty isn’t necessary when they’re hitting the bye after Thanksgiving with the top seed in the AFC. Sunday was a slog on offense, as the Chargers held Baltimore to 13 points for most of the night before a late Zay Flowers touchdown broke things open. The Ravens won’t care about their streak of five consecutive games with 30 points or more ending in Los Angeles.

In a season in which even the 10-1 Eagles have looked vulnerable for long stretches of games, I don’t think any team has been more cumulatively dominant on both sides of the football than Baltimore. It has led inside the final two minutes in each of its three losses, games in which it felt like it beat itself as opposed to getting outplayed by the opposing team. Drops cost them an overtime loss to the Colts, while sloppy play and five turnovers led to losses to the Steelers and the Browns.

At their best, has any team been more dominant? Early-season wins by multiple scores over the Texans and Browns look more impressive with hindsight, given how these teams have played over the remainder of the year. The Ravens have four wins by at least two touchdowns over teams with winning records (the Texans, Browns, Lions and Seahawks). The 49ers are the only other team with more than two, and no team had four such wins in 2022. The last team to have five of those wins in a single season was the 2014 Patriots, who won the Super Bowl. Before them, it was the 2007 Patriots, who went 16-0. We don’t often see teams dominate other good squads the way the Ravens have at times this season.

And yet, based in part on several years of frustrating performances, most Ravens fans likely would be less inclined to sum up this team by pointing to the dominant wins over the Seahawks and Lions and lean more toward games like Sunday’s. Baltimore had an early 88-yard drive for a touchdown, a few drives in which it ended up in no man’s land and had to endure a missed field goal attempt by Justin Tucker before another defensive stop handed the Ravens a short field. Flowers’ 37-yard jet sweep to the house put the game to bed, but for most of the contest, the Ravens weren’t able to produce the big play or long, steady drives they needed to build a big lead on the Chargers.

The two key plays on the final meaningful drives for each team might illustrate why the Ravens and Chargers are where they are through Week 12. Flowers’ touchdown came on a play in which he was being covered in motion by Chargers cornerback Essang Bassey. Bassey, 25, began the season with the Broncos before being cut; he had played just 25 defensive snaps with L.A. and was inactive a week ago before being thrust into the lineup. Coach Brandon Staley had already traded away 2022 free agent addition J.C. Jackson and decided to bench cornerback Michael Davis, creating a need for corners in the lineup. Bassey played 40 snaps, but he wasn’t able to hang in space with Flowers, who ran past the backup for the game-sealing score.

On the other side of the field, as The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak noted on X, the Ravens are getting incredible performances out of players up and down their defense.

It’s one thing to have Roquan Smith playing at a high level, but Kyle Van Noy was out of football to begin the season and has six sacks and 21 pressures in nine games. Jadeveon Clowney was on the market until August before signing a one-year, $2.5 million deal; he has 7.5 sacks and 34 pressures, with the latter mark ranking sixth in the league. Brandon Stephens was converting to safety during training camp; injuries have forced him to stick at cornerback, and he’s been good enough to keep Rock Ya-Sin and Ronald Darby out of the lineup when everyone’s healthy.

Two homegrown players have also made the leap. Before the season, I highlighted Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo as players who needed to grow for the Ravens to thrive. Oweh has been fine — he has four sacks — while Ojabo hit injured reserve after three games. It hasn’t been the players I expected or counted on for Baltimore, but it also hasn’t mattered with Van Noy and Clowney playing well on the edge.

Instead, it has been two other players who have made huge strides. Kyle Hamilton was the player the Ravens took as a fallback after the Eagles moved ahead of them for Jordan Davis in last year’s draft. He struggled as a rookie at times, and there were moments it felt like he might end up as a tweener, lacking the speed to play free safety and the size to play inside the box.

Well, that’s out the window. Hamilton has been a star.

The even bigger leap has come from Justin Madubuike, who is having one of the greatest contract years in recent memory.

The young guys are going to need to win out for the Ravens. With Rashod Bateman struggling to impress and Odell Beckham Jr. topping 60 yards just once all season, Flowers has needed to step in and be the team’s top wideout. Isaiah Likely played four snaps in Week 10 and has needed to be this team’s primary receiving tight end since; he had four catches for a team-high 40 receiving yards against the Chargers.

The next one up might be speedy rookie back Keaton Mitchell, who was on injured reserve to begin the season before emerging with a 138-yard game late against the Seahawks. He added two big plays on six touches against the Browns, and after a quiet game against the Bengals, he appeared to take the lead role in the backfield Sunday. The rookie undrafted free agent led all backs with nine carries, 11 touches and 89 yards from scrimmage. His speed is a much-needed burst out of the backfield for Baltimore.

Of course, the most important player on the roster is also healthy. Lamar Jackson’s recent seasons have ended in injuries in Week 14 of the 2021 season and Week 13 a year ago. Having made it through Week 12, he’s now on bye before getting the Rams in two weeks. With him producing his best season as a passer since his MVP campaign in 2019, the star quarterback is even more essential to Baltimore’s chances of winning than he was over the past two seasons. It hasn’t been pretty, but if you told the Ravens before the season that they would be hitting the bye at 9-3 with a healthy Jackson in the fold for the stretch run, that’s a deal they would have taken 100 times out of 100.

What’s next: After the bye, the Ravens have the toughest slate among the four three-loss teams in the AFC. Their final four games are all against teams that currently hold positions in the postseason, with a road trip against the Jaguars and 49ers before home tilts against the Dolphins and Steelers. The Rams, who have won two straight and are about to get a home game against a Browns team playing third-choice quarterback PJ Walker, aren’t pushovers either.

By the time the Rams show up in Week 14, the Ravens might be out of the top spot in the AFC. The Chiefs, Jaguars and Dolphins all have better records in the conference than Baltimore, which would cost it in the case of a tiebreaker. The Ravens can help alleviate those tiebreakers by beating the Jags and Fins, but those three losses to the Browns, Colts and Steelers in the conference could come back to haunt them in a tiebreaker scenario.

3. Miami Dolphins (8-3)

Week 12 result: Beat Jets 34-13

Chances of being the 1-seed, per FPI: 18.1%

How much difference can one defender make? At the beginning of the season, when the Dolphins were blown out by the Bills in Buffalo, we were lamenting the loss of Jalen Ramsey. With the star cornerback sidelined by a meniscus injury, they were vulnerable across from Xavien Howard. Josh Allen attacked Kader Kohou and Justin Bethel in coverage, avoided Howard and threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-20 victory.

Since Ramsey came back in Week 8, Miami has been a different defense. Before he was back in the lineup, the Dolphins ranked 23rd in EPA per play and last in QBR allowed. From Week 8 onward? They are first in both EPA per play and QBR allowed. By these numbers, Ramsey might be the league’s most valuable defender. Who else can transform a defense from worst to first against the pass overnight?

Let’s be realistic, though. The Dolphins have benefited from a friendly slate of opposing quarterbacks over that stretch. While they did have to play Patrick Mahomes in Germany, their other three opponents have been flailing outside of their time against Miami. Ramsey debuted in a win over the Patriots. His next win came against a Raiders team starting Aidan O’Connell. Last Friday, Ramsey & Co. shut down Tim Boyle and the Jets in a 34-13 blowout victory.

Ramsey’s presence has made life easier for the players around him. Kohou was struggling playing outside, but with Ramsey around, the Dolphins have been able to move their second-year cornerback back into the interior to play in the slot as planned. Ramsey isn’t shadowing No. 1 receivers and has mostly stuck to one side of the field, but they have still been able to rely on their coverage.

Having great cover cornerbacks might typically encourage defensive coordinators to blitz more, given that they can trust the guys holding up behind those rushers in coverage. The Dolphins have basically stopped blitzing and still managed to get home. Over the past month, they have sent extra rushers just 2.6% of the time, which ranks 31st. Despite that modest blitz rating, they still have pressured the opposing quarterback more than 32% of the time over that stretch, which is the 13th-best mark. Their 9% sack rate over that run is in the top 10, and their 8.8% sack rate all season ranks sixth.

Here’s where the Dolphins will find out whether they can win without another singular player on defense. Late in the blowout win over the Jets on Friday, third-year edge rusher Jaelan Phillips appeared to catch his foot in the infamous Jersey turf and suffered a torn Achilles. The same turf that took out Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 will cost Phillips the rest of his season.

Phillips hasn’t yet broken out as a household name, but he has consistently popped on tape as a player whose physical tools could unlock a Pro Bowl-caliber skill set. He had seven sacks and 25 knockdowns a year ago and was in the middle of a streak of five straight games with at least one sack when he suffered the injury. Miami has been more than 17 points of QBR worse without him on the field this season, which includes the game against the Bills, a contest he missed with an oblique injury.

Unlike with the Ramsey injury, the Dolphins have alternatives up front across from Bradley Chubb to replace Phillips. Andrew Van Ginkel has been an underrated player on the edge, although he has seen time in recent weeks spelling David Long at inside linebacker. Emmanuel Ogbah has been buried on the depth chart and played just 21% of the defensive snaps; the veteran will be called into a larger role in the rotation to help cover for Phillips’ absence. Miami could also look to add a free agent, with Derek Barnett and Jeremiah Attaochu as possible additions.

On the offensive side, the laser show that was the first six weeks of the season has given way to something more inconsistent. Buoyed by their 70-point effort against the Broncos, Mike McDaniel’s offense averaged a league-best 3.2 points per possession through the first six weeks. Since then, the offense has averaged 1.9 points per trip, which is tied with the Chiefs for 17th.

Some elements of Miami’s performance were never going to be sustainable. It converted 21 of its 26 red zone trips into touchdowns during that six-week start, which was the highest rate in football. Over the ensuing five games, it has made 11 trips to the end zone and converted six into touchdowns, dropping its TD rate from nearly 81% to less than 55% from the first half of their season to the second.

Owing to injuries to Terron Armstead, Isaiah Wynn, Robert Jones and Robert Hunt at different times up front, the offensive line play has been inconsistent. They are still getting the ball out at the fastest rate in football and keeping Tua Tagovailoa’s pressure rate low in the process, but what happens when he does get pressured has changed. Through Week 6, his 87.8 QBR when pressured was the best mark of any quarterback. Since then, his QBR when pressured has dropped by nearly 80 points to 9.0, which ranks 22nd. His off-target rate is north of 31% under pressure, which is also in the bottom six among passers.

Armstead is back, and getting healthier on the interior would help. De’Von Achane’s return from a knee injury was quickly cut short after a handful of snaps in Week 11, but getting the explosive rookie back into the rotation on a full-time basis would give McDaniel another speed threat to mix into his dazzling playbook. Raheem Mostert has stayed healthy, which has been a blessing for a team that lost Achane and Jeff Wilson to injuries.

It still feels like the Dolphins could use one more receiver behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, both of whom have been banged up in recent weeks.

What’s next: The Dolphins’ next few games should be easily winnable. They travel to face the Commanders on Sunday before welcoming the Titans and Jets to Miami. Those three teams have gone a combined 2-10 in November. Losing in any of those games would be a catastrophic upset for their chances of landing the top seed.

After that, things get tougher. The Dolphins host the Cowboys on Christmas Eve, travel to face the Ravens on New Year’s Eve and finish up in Week 18 against the Bills. Four of their final six games are at home, where they’re 5-0, but those five home wins have come against the Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Patriots and Raiders. The Cowboys and the Bills will be much stiffer competition.

While Miami was able to launch an incredible comeback victory over the Ravens in Baltimore a year ago, this is a much better Ravens defense than the one we saw at the beginning of 2022. If the Dolphins end up with the top seed in the conference, they’ll have earned it.

4.Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)

Week 12 result: Beat Texans 24-21

Chances of being the 1-seed, per FPI: 15%

It’s tough to have as much riding on a single play in Week 12 as the AFC South had on a field goal attempt. Matt Ammendola’s 58-yard kick at the end of Sunday’s game would have tied the score at 24 and sent it into overtime. A Texans win would have tied them with their division rivals from Jacksonville at 7-4 and given C.J. Stroud & Co. an unassailable tiebreaker after sweeping the Jags in the regular season. The Jags would have dropped, in real time, to the sixth seed.

Instead, Ammendola’s kick hit the base of the stanchion and bounced out. Jacksonville’s victory pushed it two games ahead of Houston in the AFC South. The victory canceled out the Texans’ win earlier, leaving the Jags with significant tiebreaker advantages and effectively giving Doug Pederson’s team a 2½-game lead over the Texans with six games to go. As they walked off the field, the Jaguars were the top seed in the AFC.

While the most obvious path for a Jaguars leap in 2023 involved Trevor Lawrence playing at an MVP level, they find themselves competing for the top spot in the conference because of what has been going on up front. Josh Allen, who had 2.5 sacks and four knockdowns Sunday, has been stellar. Next Gen Stats noted that he had 12 pressures Sunday, the most for him in any single game as a pro. Eight of them came against Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Allen now has a career-high 12 sacks with six more games remaining.

Allen has been the true standout player and the Defensive Player of the Year candidate on this roster, but he’s not the only one. Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, hasn’t outplayed No. 2 pick Aidan Hutchinson, but he has flashed more often in his sophomore season. Foyesade Oluokun, the team’s big free agent addition at linebacker, is playing at an All-Pro level. Fellow starting linebacker Devin Lloyd had a tough time against George Kittle, but a defense that was 32nd in the NFL in QBR on throws to tight ends last season is the third-best at the moment.

For the first time since that fateful 2017 campaign — when Jacksonville nearly beat New England in the AFC title game — the Jaguars have a legitimately impressive defense. They rank 10th in EPA per play on defense this season and fourth in win probability added on that side of the ball, behind only the Steelers, Ravens and Eagles. EPA doesn’t adjust for strength of schedule, but DVOA does, and the improvement there is even bigger: Jacksonville ranked 23th in defensive DVOA a year ago and was sixth before Sunday’s game, when it held the Texans to 21 points across 10 drives, albeit with the help of two missed field goals from Ammendola.

Since allowing 30 points to the Texans’ offense in a blowout loss in Week 3, the Jacksonville defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in six of its eight ensuing games. The Saints got to 24, but the most difficult challenge the Jaguars faced over the past two months was the one time their defense failed: The 49ers marched up and down the field and scored 34 points in a rout. The only moral victory might have been denying Christian McCaffrey a touchdown at the end of the game, snapping the star back’s consecutive games streak.

The Jags have won seven of their past eight games, but that loss to the 49ers will be an easy disqualifier for observers who don’t believe in AFC South teams.

If anything, offensive inconsistency remains a problem for the Jaguars, who have had more near-scores go awry for various reasons than any other team. While Lawrence averaged 9.6 yards per attempt Sunday, the narrow victory was another example. At the end of the first half, he hit Christian Kirk on a deep crossing route for 57 yards, with Kirk stepping out of bounds a yard before the goal line. With one second left on the clock, Pederson sent two extra offensive linemen onto the field and attempted to pitch the ball to Travis Etienne, only for immediate penetration into the backfield to blow up the play for no gain, costing them what could have been game-changing points.

If you believe that a killer instinct is a thing for an NFL offense, the Jaguars lack it. They have averaged 4.1 points per red zone trip this season, which ranks 29th. The Jags have to find a way to execute more consistently in the red zone. Some of the issues have been with the offensive line, which has never seemed to get settled after Cam Robinson was suspended for the first month of the season. Rookie right tackle Anton Harrison struggled early before improving as the season has progressed, and left guard Ben Bartch was benched for swing tackle Walker Little, who missed the better part of four games with a knee injury. They traded for Vikings guard Ezra Cleveland and needed him Sunday, when Robinson suffered a knee injury in the first half and wasn’t able to return. Little moved back to left tackle and will stay there if Robinson is out for any extended period of time. The line has to play better, especially in short yardage, for the offense to thrive.

Etienne’s workload was also becoming a problem. Through Week 8, his 151 carries were 14 more than any other player in the league. That’s not the sort of workload Pederson typically wants to give his primary back, and it’s not the best use of Etienne, who was averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. With rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby struggling, though, they needed another solution.

Enter D’Ernest Johnson, who has been a difference-maker over the past two games. Against the Titans, Johnson had a 34-yard catch to help set up a field goal before halftime. On Sunday, the former Browns back took a screen 42 yards to help set up a Lawrence touchdown. With Jamal Agnew on injured reserve, he’s also serving as the team’s kick returner. Keeping Etienne fresh for January is going to be essential for the Jaguars.

So much of the conversation about the Jaguars revolves around Lawrence, and you can understand why: He’s a legendary college player who is the most conspicuous player on a team that often flies under the national radar. Right now, he ranks ninth in QBR; the passing offense has its problems, but it’s neither carrying them to victories nor keeping them from competing. What happens around Lawrence is going to determine whether they stay in this rarified air or fall back in the weeks to come.

What’s next: The Jaguars have six more games to go, with two coming against teams currently occupying playoff spots in the Browns and Ravens. They have three matchups against backup quarterbacks down the stretch, with Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson both out for the season and Ryan Tannehill benched for Will Levis in Tennessee.