| If The Season Ended Today, the team the oddsmakers continue to proclaim as the favorite to hoist Lombardi in February, is not even in the playoffs and multiple games outside it division lead. The Chiefs have fallen to eighth in the AFC after Jacksonville’s win at Las Vegas. AFC ConfIndianapolis South 7-2 6-1New England East 7-2 4-2Denver West 7-2 4-2Pittsburgh North 5-3 4-1Buffalo WC1 6-2 4-1LA Chargers WC2 6-3 5-1Jacksonville WC3 5-3 3-2Kansas City 5-4 2-3Houston 3-5 2-2Baltimore 3-5 2-3 We will have the NFC tomorrow after Arizona at Dallas tonight. Here are the updated Super Bowl odds (from Fan Duel) with the Chiefs still ahead of everyone. Kansas City Chiefs +550Buffalo Bills +650Philadelphia Eagles +800Detroit Lions +900Los Angeles Rams +900Green Bay Packers +1100Indianapolis Colts +1200Seattle Seahawks +1300Denver Broncos +1600Baltimore Ravens +1800New England Patriots +2700Los Angeles Chargers +2700San Francisco 49ers +2700Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2700Jacksonville Jaguars +5000Chicago Bears +7000Pittsburgh Steelers +7000Houston Texans +7500Dallas Cowboys +8000Minnesota Vikings +8000Carolina Panthers +15000Atlanta Falcons +20000 To repeat – a $100 bet on the 5-4 Chiefs will win back $650, including the original $100. $100 on the 5-3 Jaguars is good for $5,100 back. The Chiefs, who head to BYE this week, still have four games against teams that currently have better records than they do at the moment: 10 BYE WEEK11 Sun, Nov 16 @ Denver12 Sun, Nov 23 Indianapolis13 Thu, Nov 27 @ Dallas14 Sun, Dec 7 Houston15 Sun, Dec 14 LA Chargers16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Tennessee17 Thu, Dec 25 Denver18 TBD – Flex Game @ Las Vegas |
| NFC NORTH |
| GREEN BAYNot only did the Packers lose a home game that many were counting as a win on Sunday, they lost their ace TE TYLER KRAFT. Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com: The Packers will not have Tucker Kraft for the rest of 2025 after the tight end suffered a torn ACL during Sunday’s loss to the Panthers. Kraft was in the midst of a breakout season, having caught 32 passes for 489 yards with six touchdowns in eight games. He set a career-high with seven catches and 143 yards in the Week 8 win over Pittsburgh. He had a pair of catches for 20 yards on Sunday before suffering the injury. Head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters in his Monday press conference that Kraft is taking a positive outlook. “He’s doing as good as you could ever be doing, considering the circumstances,” LaFleur said, via Wes Hodkiewicz of the team’s website. “Tuck’s a guy that’s not gonna flinch. That’s why we love him. He’s a hell of a player, hell of a teammate. “I’m bummed for him. I’m bummed for us. But that’s part of it.” A third-round pick in 2023, Kraft has recorded 113 receptions for 1,551 yards with 15 touchdowns in his first 42 games as a pro. |
| NFC EAST |
| DALLASJerry Jones said Monday that the Cowboys are sitting on a trade. NFL.com: Giddy up, Cowboys fans: It looks like Dallas is making a move ahead of Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline.. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones intimated as much on Monday, telling Stephen A. Smith during an interview on Sirius XM Radio that “we certainly have made a trade.” Ever the showman, Jones declined to share any details regarding the incoming move. “A lot of action going on right now in terms of trading, we certainly have made a trade and we may make a couple more trades before that deadline,” Jones said, via the Dallas Morning News. “We’ve made one. We possibly could make two more, and I’m going to wait and let you read about that when we send the papers in tomorrow.” The big remaining questions are who the newcomer will be, what position does he play and what Dallas gave up in the deal. Jones said on Monday the player would “address some of the things that have been our shortcomings.” Defense certainly has been Dallas’ shortcoming through the first eight games of the season — the Cowboys play the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night — allowing 31.3 points per game (31st in NFL entering Week 9). Pass rusher, of course, is an area of need following the decision to trade Micah Parsons to the Packers at the end of August. Veteran James Houston currently leads the team with 3.5 sacks, and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who was part of the Parsons blockbuster, is the only other defender with more than one sack this year. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Sunday that Dallas indeed is in the market for a pass rusher. One of the players possibly on the Cowboys’ radar (Jaelan Phillips) was dealt to the rival Philadelphia Eagles on Monday morning. The Titans’ Arden Key, the Dolphins’ Bradley Chubb and the Raiders’ Malcolm Koonce were other names to monitor, per Rapoport. We have until Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET to find out what exactly Jones has up his sleeve. |
| PHILADELPHIAThe Eagles land an edge from Miami’s fire sale. ESPN.com: The Philadelphia Eagles added another player to their defense ahead of the NFL trade deadline, acquiring outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips from the Miami Dolphins on Monday. The Dolphins received a 2026 third-round draft pick in the deal, while the Eagles hope to boost their struggling pass rush with their third trade in the last week. “I have a high regard and a lot of investment into Jaelan Phillips, and that part of the business I absolutely despise in terms of having to say goodbye to a player,” Miami coach Mike McDaniel said. “That being said, I understand it was a trade that we got back compensation and I understand the value of that compensation.” Phillips has three sacks in nine games this season and 26 in his five-year career with Miami. The 2021 first-round pick is scheduled to become a free agent after this season. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles also landed cornerbacks Michael Carter II and Jaire Alexander in separate trades last week, looking to bolster a defense that currently ranks 23rd in the NFL in total defense and 24th in sacks. In Philadelphia, Phillips will reunite with Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who was the defensive coordinator in Miami in 2023. Phillips had 6.5 sacks in just eight games that season. The Eagles have been unsteady at the edge position all season. They dealt with the departures of Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham in the offseason, a triceps injury to Nolan Smith that landed him on injured reserve, and the sudden retirement of Za’Darius Smith. But reinforcements are on the way; Graham has since come out of retirement, Nolan Smith could play as early this week against the Green Bay Packers, and now Phillips is in the fold, joining a group that also includes Jalyx Hunt, Joshua Uche and Patrick Johnson. Seth Walder of ESPN.com breaks it down: Eagles get: Edge Jaelan PhillipsDolphins get: 2026 third-round pick Eagles grade: A-Dolphins grade: B- In the offseason, the Eagles looked like a team that could weather losing Josh Sweat to free agency and Brandon Graham to retirement. Half a season later, the vibe had shifted. A triceps injury landed Nolan Smith Jr. on injured reserve — and he hadn’t been particularly effective in the three games he did play. Za’Darius Smith surprisingly retired after five games. And Jalyx Hunt hasn’t taken the step the Eagles hoped, with an 8.9% pass rush win rate at edge that ranks 41st out of 49 qualifiers at the position. Joshua Uche has been possibly better than expected as a fill-in, but he is just that — a depth player who can flash now and again. Patrick Johnson and Azeez Ojulari (now also on IR) have been in the mix, too. Even though Smith could return from injury soon and Graham is coming out of retirement, the Eagles felt — and with good reason — that adding talent at edge rusher was a priority and made a move for Phillips, a good pass rusher in the final year of his contract. Injuries hampered Phillips’ career with the Dolphins. He suffered season-ending injuries to his Achilles and ACL in 2023 and 2024, respectively. But when he has been on the field, Phillips has always been quite impressive. He recorded 8.5 sacks as a rookie and then followed that up with a 7.0-sack season in 2022 in which he boasted a 23.9% pass rush win rate at edge that ranked fifth at the position that season. He has a 17.1% pass rush win rate at edge for his career and is at 16.5% this season, both a shade above average. Considering his track record and that he’s getting back to form after his ACL injury, I think it’s reasonable for the Eagles to expect him to be little better than that in the second half of the season. Phillips also generally scores well in run stop win rate, and that has particularly been the case this season, when his 30.5% RSWR at edge ranks 11th among edge rushers. There’s a pretty decent chance Phillips is a rental. He’s playing on his $13.25 million fifth-year option. While that means he might well be a stopgap solution for Philadelphia, it opens up the pretty strong possibility that Phillips could leave in free agency and net Philly a compensatory pick (perhaps a fourth-rounder, just like Sweat is projected to earn the Eagles, according to OverTheCap). The Eagles have $23.8 million in cap space next year (per OverTheCap), so while they could make some signings, they probably won’t be huge players in free agency, thus making the comp pick quite likely. Framed in those terms — a 2026 third-round pick and around $6.6 million for half a season of Phillips and a likely 2027 fourth-round pick — this seems well worth it. The Eagles are true Super Bowl contenders, so the leverage on patching up any weakness is high. Anything that moves the needle on probability of a Lombardi Trophy is valuable. The Dolphins are currently $11.9 million over the cap next year (though they would save a lot if they part ways with Tyreek Hill) and would also not be expected to be major free agency players next spring. But they absolutely did the right thing in dealing away Phillips. There’s no guarantee he stays healthy the rest of the way nor any guarantee of how free agency will go (and therefore no guarantee of a compensatory pick). And the rest of 2025 is lost for Miami. The Dolphins needed to secure draft capital and save a few million in cap space while they can. I would have expected the Dolphins to net just slightly more for Phillips given the prospect of the compensatory pick for any team acquiring him, though. Last year at this time, receiver Amari Cooper was traded to the Bills for a third-round pick along with a sixth- and seventh-round pick swap. Granted, Cooper’s deal cost the Bills almost no money, but he also was not as good a player at the time as Phillips is now. Even so, if I had been the Dolphins and knew this was the best offer on the table, I would have taken it without hesitation. |
| WASHINGTONOn Monday, Coach Dan Quinn agreed with all of you at home – QB JAYDEN DANIELS should not have been in the game when he got hurt late in Sunday’s shellacking. John Keim of ESPN.com: Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn on Monday said he should have removed quarterback Jayden Daniels before the drive that ended with the second-year passer dislocating his left elbow, a distinct change from what he said shortly after losing to Seattle on Sunday night. “I just missed it,” Quinn said. “That is 100% on me.” Quinn said they’re still awaiting further testing on Daniels’ elbow to determine the next course of action, but the coach said it would “knock him out a while for sure.” An X-ray after the game showed no fracture. Daniels suffered the injury to his non-throwing elbow with 7:39 remaining in the fourth quarter of a 38-14 loss to Seattle. He was sacked on a scramble at the Seahawks’ 4-yard line with the Commanders trailing 38-7 at the time. Washington also lost two more players to injuries. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore tore his ACL, and receiver/kick returner Luke McCaffrey fractured his collarbone. Both are out for the season. Quinn also said receiver Terry McLaurin is unlikely to play vs. the Detroit Lions on Sunday because of a quad injury that already has sidelined him for five games. Washington won’t be signing another quarterback “at this time,” Quinn said. Marcus Mariota will start in place of Daniels, with Josh Johnson as his backup; Sam Hartman is on the practice squad. After the game, Quinn said he did not give any consideration to removing Daniels at that point in the game. There was 12:30 left in the game when Daniels and the starting offense began the drive. According to ESPN Research, Daniels was pressured on a career-high 51% of his dropbacks Sunday night, including 61% in the second half. He was hit 14 times, according to TruMedia, the second most he had been hit this season. In Week 2, Daniels was hit 17 times against Green Bay, with one of those hits to his knee resulting in a sprain and a two-week absence. But on that final drive against the Seahawks, Daniels handed the ball off four times and threw five passes before the play in which he got hurt. On the previous five passes, he was chased out of the pocket on one rush but avoided getting hit. He was injured while scrambling to his right, after opting not to hand off to running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. With a defender rushing at him and impacting his ability to throw to the right side, Daniels chose to scramble and, as he was tackled, his left elbow bent backward. Quinn said they weren’t going to call any plays in which the quarterback might run. “Honestly, that’s where I missed it,” Quinn said. “Of course he scrambled. It’s Jayden. It’s what he’s special at.” He said that was going to be the last series for Daniels and a handful of other starters. “The hindsight part is the hardest one,” Quinn said. “That’s what I think about all night and nonstop.” Daniels missed three games earlier this season with injuries — two with a sprained knee and another with a hamstring issue. He suffered the first injury on the initial play of the fourth quarter at Green Bay in Week 2, trailing 17-3. He was hit by a helmet in the left knee, but he stayed in the game, showing no visible signs of an injury, and capped off the series with a touchdown pass to make it a one-score game. He also hurt his hamstring early in the third quarter of a game at Dallas, getting tackled in the pocket by a free blitzer. Teammates were upset by what happened Sunday night. “Just distraught,” tight end Zach Ertz said. “I care about Jayden the person much more than the player. The player is phenomenal, one of the best players in the league. He meant so much to me, to see him down like that in pain is tough. Football is a tough sport, a physical sport. To see injuries like that is difficult.” Quinn also said he won’t be making any changes to his defensive staff, but he did say that defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. would move from the press box to the field. The Commanders rank 28th in yards allowed and 22nd in scoring — and 31st in both categories over the past four weeks. “It’s players, it’s coaches, it’s all of us, man,” Quinn said. “We’re capable of playing these calls and playing them better. And I’m certain of it. My belief in the players is high, in the staff is high.” |
| NFC WEST |
| ARIZONAThe Cardinals first round pick will debut tonight. Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.cm: The Cardinals selected defensive lineman Walter Nolen III with their first pick in April. They will see him on the field for the first time on Monday Night Football. The team activated Nolen from the reserve/physically unable to perform list. “He does not look like he is tired or out of shape out there,” defensive coordinator Nick Rallis said, via Darren Urban of the team website. “Also, being able to go out and execute our stuff has been impressive. It’s hard to be out that long and execute mentally from a high level. Even if you are working hard at it, there is something different to being out there.” Nolan could be on a snap count, considering he has not played a game since last season at Ole Miss. He injured his calf before training camp began. “I feel I can contribute a lot,” Nolen said. “That’s just how I carry myself. I feel I can do whatever in the world. Whenever I get the chance to get back out there I feel I can contribute a lot.” The Cardinals also activated cornerback Garrett Williams from injured reserve, where he had been since a Week 2 knee injury. The nickel corner has 11 tackles and a pass defensed in two games. The team also elevated running back Michael Carter to the active roster for tonight’s game against the Cowboys. He joins Bam Knight and Emari Demercado as options in the backfield. Carter has 35 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown in four games, adding nine catches for 77 yards. |
| SAN FRANCISCOWith rookie DE MYKEL WILLIAMS done for the year, the 49ers could be in the market as the trade deadline approaches. Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com: The San Francisco 49ers’ fears about the injury to rookie defensive end Mykel Williams were confirmed Monday afternoon when a source told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that Williams tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. After the Niners’ 34-24 victory against the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon, coach Kyle Shanahan left little doubt about Williams’ likely diagnosis while also trying to offer a hint of optimism that further testing would reveal better than expected news in a brief chat with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. “He’s just down and you never know,” Shanahan said after the game. “Hopefully, it’s not the worst, but if it is, hey that sucks for this year. But that’s all it sucks for. You’ll be back next year, and this won’t affect you at all.” As it turned out, that’s exactly the case for Williams, who will need surgery to repair the knee and then begin a lengthy recovery process before he can return in 2026. Williams suffered the injury with about four minutes left in the game as he pressured Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart. Williams got close to Dart, who threw incomplete to his right. But Williams’ knee buckled and he went down. His immediate reaction suggested something was seriously wrong as he grabbed for his right knee and pounded his helmet and the turf in frustration. Although Williams was able to slowly walk off the field, Shanahan said after the game that the team was “worried” about the injury being an ACL tear though an MRI on Monday was needed to confirm it. Williams has started each of San Francisco’s first nine games, averaging 45.4 snaps per contest and posting 20 tackles and a sack while lining up on the edge on early downs and moving inside to rush the quarterback on obvious passing downs. Williams’ ACL tear is the latest major blow to a 49ers team that has been ravaged by injuries this season with many of those ailments seeming to hit the defense in the past month or so. With Williams out, the Niners will play their remaining eight games without either of their top two defensive ends from the start of the season, as Nick Bosa tore his right ACL in a Week 3 win against Arizona. San Francisco also placed defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos on injured reserve Friday because of a hamstring injury and played the past two weeks without edge rusher Bryce Huff. The Niners are also without star linebacker Fred Warner (right ankle dislocation). As it stands, the only healthy defensive ends on the 53-man roster are Sam Okuayinonu, Robert Beal Jr. and Keion White, whom the team acquired in a trade with the New England Patriots last week. The 49ers elevated end Clelin Ferrell from the practice squad to play against the Giants after signing him last week, also. Huff is expected to return for Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. All of which means the Niners, who have been seeking more trade help on the defensive line even after adding White and Ferrell, will continue looking into those options leading into Tuesday’s trade deadline. While help could be on the way, Niners left tackle Trent Williams made it clear after the win in New York that the injuries are taking their toll. “Injuries are a part of the game and everybody deals with it, but we have been bitten particularly hard by the injury bug,” left tackle Trent Williams said. “We’ve been able to continue and fight past it. But who knows? You never know when that straw is just enough to break the camel’s back.” |
| AFC WEST |
| KANSAS CITYQB PATRICK MAHOMES connected on 44.1% (15-34) of his passes Sunday. In his 142 start, it was the first time he completed less than 50% of his passes (HT Scott Kacsmar)- – The Chiefs accepted a lot of plaudits from draft “experts” when they drafted T JOSH SIMMONS at the bottom of the first round. But at the midway point, the selection hasn’t panned out partly because of Simmons lack of availability. That could be changing per Jesse Newell of The Athletic: Kansas City Chiefs rookie left tackle Josh Simmons has returned to the team’s facility after spending 22 days away for a personal matter, a source confirmed to The Athletic. NFL insider Jordan Schultz was first to report the Simmons news on Monday. The Chiefs’ first-round pick in April, Simmons had been away from the team since Oct. 12, when he was added to the injury report as a late entry for “personal” reasons. Simmons has missed four games while away from the team. It’s a significant development for the Chiefs, who find themselves at 5-4 after Sunday’s road loss to the Buffalo Bills. K.C. also has battled recent depth issues on the offensive line as backup Jaylon Moore has been filling in for Simmons at left tackle, while right tackle Jawaan Taylor left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. That forced third-string tackle Wanya Morris into the game during the final quarter. The Chiefs now have a bye week, which could allow Simmons extra time to get back into football shape. When ready, he’s expected to resume his starting role at left tackle. Simmons was excellent for the Chiefs in his first five games after earning the left tackle job in training camp. Specifically, Chiefs coaches and front-office staff members lauded Simmons for his competitiveness, willingness to learn and ability to put bad plays behind him. Two weeks ago, Chiefs coach Andy Reid gave an encouraging update on Simmons while also saying he wouldn’t go into details about why he was away from the team. Reid shared that there had been communication between the team and Simmons, saying, “Everything’s positive. It’s not a negative situation. He’s taking care of family.” That family revelation then was more than Reid had previously said about Simmons’ status. “He’s just taking care of business,” Reid said on Oct. 23. “That’s the main thing right here. When you deal with this, that’s what you do. He’s been very good about communicating it.” The Chiefs will have a road game against the Denver Broncos on Nov. 16 after their week off. |
| LOS ANGELES CHARGERST JOHN ALT, a big part of the LA offense, is done for the year. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com: Chargers left tackle Joe Alt is out for the rest of the season. The team has announced that Alt will have surgery to repair an ankle injury that he suffered on Sunday against the Titans. It was the second high ankle sprain Alt has suffered this season, to the same leg. He initially injured the ankle in Week 4, at the Giants. He returned for the Week 8 game against the Vikings. Alt was the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft. Right tackle Bobby Hart suffered a groin injury during Sunday’s 27-20 win. Alt moved from right tackle to left tackle after Rashawn Slater suffered a ruptured patella tendon during training camp. The 6-3 Chargers host the 5-3 Steelers on Sunday night. |
| AFC NORTH |
| CINCINNATIThis from Ari Meirov after the Bengals 47-42 loss to Chicago: @MySportsUpdate#Bengals are the first team since the 1960s to score 38+ points in back-to-back games and lose both games. |
| CLEVELANDAfter some bye week thinking, coach Kevin Stefanski is giving up the offensive playcalling. Jason Owens of YahooSports.com: The Cleveland Browns have made another change in an effort to fix their broken offense. Head coach Kevin Stefanski will relinquish offensive play-calling duties for a second consecutive season. He announced the decision Monday. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees will take over, starting with Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. “He’s more than capable,” Stefanski told reporters of Rees. “Bottom line, we have to get better collectively. … “It’s never about one person. Whether you’re talking about a player or a coach, it’s not about one person. … Bottom line is he understands what we need to do, which is stay on the field and score some points.” The Browns make the move amid a 2-6 start in which they’re in last place in the AFC North. Through nine weeks of the NFL season, the Browns rank 31st in total offense, 31st in passing offense and 29th in rushing offense. They rank 30th in scoring with 15.8 points per game. The midseason move is the latest attempt to fix Cleveland’s offensive woes. QB change hasn’t helpedThe Browns started the season with veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. They got off to a 1-3 start with Flacco and benched him in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel. They ultimately traded Flacco to the AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland’s offense has not progressed since the quarterback switch. The Browns are 1-3 with Gabriel at quarterback. They scored 31 points in a win over a now 2-7 Dolphins team, but have otherwise scored 17, 9 and 13 points in losses to the Vikings, Steelers and Patriots with Gabriel. Flacco, meanwhile, has thrived with Bengals. In his four games with the Browns, Flacco completed 58.1% of his passes for 203.8 yards per game with two touchdowns and six interceptions. In as many games with the Bengals, Flacco’s completed 64.7% of his passes for 313.5 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. His quarterback rating has spiked from 60.3 with the Browns to 102.6 with the Bengals. Stefanski asked about Flacco’s success in CincinnatiStefanski was asked about Flacco’s relative success in Cincinnati compared to his performance with the Browns. “I don’t really have a comment on Joe or any players on other teams,” Stefanski said. ” I don’t think it’s appropriate.” Gabriel, meanwhile, has struggled, and Cleveland’s pass production has regressed. The third-round pick out of Oregon is completing 59.9% of his passes for 117 yards per game with five touchdowns and two interceptions. Stefanksi reiterated Monday that Gabriel will continue to start over fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders. Stefanski is in his his sixth year as Cleveland’s head coach and is on track to post his fourth losing record in his tenure. He gave up play-calling duties last season to then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey following a 1-6 start with Deshaun Watson at quarterback after Watson suffered a season-ending Achilles tear. The Browns fired Dorsey after the 2024 season and promoted Rees to offensive coordinator from his position as tight ends coach and passing game specialist. Watson, meanwhile, regressed after joining the Browns on a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract from the Houston Texans ahead of the 2022 season. He’s since been sidelined by multiple injuries and remains on the physically unable to perform list. The Browns were hoping when they acquired him that Watson was the final piece on a talented roster to raise them to championship contention. Outside of an 11-6 campaign in 2023, the Browns have instead remained one of the worst teams in football. |
| AFC SOUTH |
| INDIANAPOLISBill Barnwell of ESPN.com breaks down what went wrong for the Colts Sunday in Pittsburgh: Indianapolis ColtsWeek 9 result: Lost 27-20 to the Pittsburgh SteelersChances to win the Super Bowl before Week 9: 13.0%Chances to win the Super Bowl after Week 9: 10.1% Two days after Halloween, you might not have been shocked to see Daniel Jones turn into the proverbial pumpkin. After playing at an MVP level for the league’s most surprising team over the first two months of the season, Jones had one of his worst games as a pro Sunday. Facing a Steelers defense that has struggled to stop anybody all season, Jones was responsible for five of Indianapolis’ six turnovers in Pittsburgh, throwing three interceptions and losing two strip sacks. He ended up throwing for 342 yards, but it took him a whopping 50 pass attempts to get there, as the Steelers also sacked him five times. Is that too simplistic of an explanation for the loss? Yes. The game actually got off to a solid start for the Colts, as Jones hit Alec Pierce for a couple of long completions and Indy converted a pair of fourth downs, with Jones plunging in on the second for a 1-yard score. The Steelers then went three-and-out, and while they picked up a short field after Josh Downs muffed the punt return, the Colts held out and got the ball back on downs. Indy then put together a 17-play drive, including a fourth-and-1 fake punt for a first down. What looked like a game the Colts were controlling quickly unraveled because of turnovers. T.J. Watt got underneath Braden Smith to strip-sack Jones and recover the ball. After the Steelers scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, Jones tried to work both sides of the field and didn’t see Payton Wilson drop into a throwing lane for an easy interception. The Steelers scored again from a short field, and when Jones narrowly missed Pierce on what should have been a 42-yard completion on the next drive, Indianapolis went three-and-out. When they got the ball back again, the Steelers smelled blood. Jones converted a fourth-and-1, but Alex Highsmith and Joey Porter Jr. sacked him on consecutive plays to force another punt. Jones converted another fourth down on the next drive, but he tried to throw a quick screen to his slot receiver on second-and-1, and Wilson batted the pass into the air. Jack Sawyer caught it for what might be considered a bad-luck interception. The Steelers scored a touchdown from that drive to go up 24-7, and that turned the Colts into a one-dimensional offense the rest of the way. More than anything, if you’re looking for a reason why Jones struggled so much, I’d point to the game script and the lack of a run game. Before Sunday, Jones had been trailing on just 27.3% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league behind Sam Darnold, another quarterback who similarly benefits from being in advantageous game scripts. The Colts have been able to lean on Jonathan Taylor, play-action, the RPO game and the threat of the run to create conflict for defenses. Those problems have kept opponents from throwing their exotic looks at Jones and limited their ability to rush the quarterback. And to his credit, Jones has done a great job of executing the offense, getting the ball out quickly and hitting throws downfield, which were problems for him with the Giants. Trailing for most of the day, Jones was stuck in obvious passing situations without the run to slow down Pittsburgh’s pass rush. The Steelers did a great job of limiting Taylor’s explosive runs, holding him to 45 yards on 14 carries. They kept Jones from moving around, as he failed to attempt a single pass outside the pocket. And with play-action mostly out of the picture as the game wore along, Jones had to beat the Steelers from the pocket as a dropback passer, which is not where the Colts want him operating. If anything, the Colts’ defense should be applauded for keeping its team in the contest. While the Steelers didn’t score on that short field after the muffed punt, they did score touchdowns on two drives that started from their own 44-yard line and another from the Indianapolis 14-yard line. They added a field goal on a possession opening from Indy’s 34-yard line and lost a fumble on another drive that started in Colts territory. The average Steelers possession Sunday began with just 53 yards to go for a touchdown, the second-best starting field position for a team in a game all season. Steelers fans (and players) who have heard their defense derided over the past few weeks will have a piece of evidence that the oft-frustrating unit is turning things around, too. This was the best game of the season for the starters in the Steelers’ pass rush, as Highsmith racked up four of Pittsburgh’s 10 quick pressures on Jones. Without DeShon Elliott (knee), the Steelers inserted newly acquired safety Kyle Dugger into the lineup, as the former Patriot played 72 of 74 snaps. Jalen Ramsey moved from cornerback to free safety on a full-time basis, taking over for the benched Juan Thornhill, and the Steelers didn’t allow a single completion on a throw traveling 20 or more yards in the air. At the same time, it’s still fair to note that this defense is turnover-or-bust. Mike Tomlin’s team forces turnovers at the second-highest rate in the league, which is great, but it is still 25th in points allowed per drive when it doesn’t force a turnover. The Steelers aren’t going to recover three of the four fumbles they force or have their front-seven players intercept two passes every week, and it remains to be seen if they can turn the defense around during the games where that doesn’t happen. And while I referred to the pumpkin at the beginning of this breakdown, I don’t think this proves that Jones and the Colts are about to fall apart. It might be more realistic to point out that this reflects the limitations of what the Colts can ask Jones to do and how much of the load he can carry. On a day where the Colts weren’t able to run the ball consistently and their O-line was overwhelmed, Jones couldn’t transcend and make magic happen in the way that many of the quarterbacks aside him in the MVP discussion have been able to do. The Colts have just one turnover across their seven wins and seven of them in their two losses. They might not be able to survive two or three turnovers in a game, let alone six. |
| AFC EAST |
| NEW ENGLANDYou can read his whole timeline, but Scott Kacsmar – an unabashed fan of PATRICK MAHOMES above all others who specializes in disputing the Tom Brady GOAT consensus has taken to molding statistics to be-little Brady’s successor. @ScottKacsmarSome records for QBs when they throw 27+ passes Patrick Mahomes 100-30 (.769) [No. 1 in NFL history]Bo Nix 14-8 (.636)Jalen Hurts 29-17 (.630)Jayden Daniels 10-6 (.625)Caleb Williams 7-13 (.350)Justin Fields 7-16 (.304)Bryce Young 3-23 (.115)Drake Maye 1-9 (.100) @ScottKacsmarWhat did I manipulate? How is it any better for him if I tweeted: Drake Maye is 1-9 when he throws 30+ passes He’s 1-9 when the Patriots allow 21+ points in a game he doesn’t leave injured, and he still needed a GW KR in the only win Other than your round number fetish, how is this any better when both records show he doesn’t win games if he has to throw a normal number of passes and if they allow an above-average number of points? |
| THIS AND THAT |
| SIZING UP THE AFCMike Sando of The Athletic looks at the state of the AFC – the bluebloods Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore (the latter two with unimpressive W-L records at this stage) versus the up and comers – Indianapolis, New England and Denver. Before the season, The Athletic’s NFL projection model gave Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City roughly the same chance to reach the Super Bowl, about 22-23 percent per team. Monday morning, that model showed Buffalo with the best chance (20 percent), slightly ahead of Indianapolis and New England (roughly 18 percent), with Kansas City next at 12.5 percent, Baltimore and Denver around 9, and the Chargers at 6.4. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville are both 5 percent. What once was a three-team race is now complicated, even if execs around the league still see Kansas City and Buffalo as the favorites. “Buffalo is not impressive talent-wise, but they are very well-coached,” an exec from a Bills opponent said. “My gut just tells me that Buffalo is going to break through this year. They have been pretty unlucky to lose games three of the past four years against the Chiefs (in the playoffs). Those could have gone either way. Eventually, those bounce the other way, so I think they will be fine.” A Bills defense that ranked 22nd in EPA per play through Week 6 served notice that it still has the capacity to dominate against one of the NFL’s hottest offenses. The Chiefs had been riding a Patrick Mahomes-era record six consecutive games with at least +7.0 EPA. “I would want a real pass rusher if I were Buffalo,” the exec added. “They probably could not have afforded this, but Micah Parsons to the Bills would have been a ‘holy s—‘ moment.” Parsons might as well have been out there for the Bills in Week 9. Before Sunday, Kansas City scoring 44 points on the Bills seemed more likely than Buffalo holding Mahomes to a 44 percent completion rate. It was the first time in 142 total starts that the two-time MVP failed to complete half his passes. That was huge for Buffalo, which has won the teams’ past five regular-season meetings. But when the Chiefs were converting fourth-and-17 in a fourth quarter that became uncomfortably frantic for the Bills, Kansas City’s playoff dominance (4-0 in the Mahomes era) came to mind. “Buffalo wants to get into a designer coverage (on fourth-and-17), and all the DBs are yelling and pointing at each other, so they have to call timeout,” a coach who watched the game said. “Buffalo is more stressed out about fourth-and-17 than K.C. was!” The Bills called another defensive timeout with 4:32 left when they had trouble lining up. And when Buffalo missed a 52-yard field goal with 22 seconds left, visions of 13 seconds were warming up. “When you see that guy (Mahomes) putting that helmet on and walking back onto the field with 22 seconds, that is a nightmare for Buffalo,” the coach said. “He’s getting (one throw) in the end zone (to Tyquan Thornton) and another to the plus-5, with (one hitting) their hands. It’s unbelievable. They’re the best team. If Buffalo plays K.C. at a neutral site or at Arrowhead, they don’t win this game.” The outcome Sunday could require the 5-4 Chiefs to play the next meeting in Buffalo as well, although Kansas City, currently eighth in the AFC, wouldn’t even qualify for the playoffs at present. Not that anyone expects the Chiefs to miss the postseason. “I had Kansas City as the clear best team heading into Sunday, with Buffalo second but being worse than last year because of the average receivers and secondary,” another exec said. “Baltimore has just seemed kind of broken, like an implosion waiting to happen.” Another exec thought the Ravens — who routed Miami on Thursday night in Lamar Jackson’s return from a hamstring injury — could rally with their top two tight ends and fullback Patrick Ricard finally healthy together. But questions on defense linger. Indy, Denver and New England are all 7-2 and atop the AFC. A deep dive into the Colts this past week showed a team with strong lines, a nice mix of tight ends led by rookie Tyler Warren, a seemingly possessed running back in Jonathan Taylor and a well-schemed offense. It also revealed a dearth of elite plays from new quarterback Daniel Jones, who had been more solid than spectacular until Sunday, when he suffered five turnovers and was neither. Jones and the Colts fell apart in Pittsburgh against a previously struggling Steelers defense. The Broncos, meanwhile, are riding one of the least convincing six-game winning streaks in recent memory. Their 55-point margin of victory during the streak is tied for 47th out of 56 six-game winning streaks since 2000, per TruMedia. That 55-point margin includes four games decided by a total of 10 points, with three of those against the 1-7 Jets, 2-7 Giants and 3-5 Texans, who played much of their 18-15 loss to Denver on Sunday without quarterback C.J. Stroud. “I think Denver’s a good team, but I see a lot of days that the quarterback (Bo Nix) still holds them back,” an evaluator said. “Defense is pretty good, offensive scheme is good. Nix has been inconsistent from the pocket in processing. He’ll make a boneheaded throw every now and then. Really, the accuracy is the one thing that bothers me with him. It’s just inconsistent.” Execs thought the Chargers had a shot if they could avoid more injuries to their offensive line, but with Joe Alt suffering a potentially serious ankle injury Sunday, those bets are off. New England, anyone? “I was so wrong about them,” another exec said of the Patriots. “I know part of it is the schedule, but they look the part. Their run defense has been really good, and if I’m buying stock in quarterbacks, give me all the Drake Maye stock there is. It’s not like he’s throwing to (Jordan) Addison and (Justin) Jefferson or A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.” We might instinctively put a cap on how far teams other than Kansas City and Buffalo might advance. Should we? “It is hard to say what someone’s limit is,” one of the execs said. “The freaking Commanders got to the championship game (in the NFC) last year, so anybody can go win one game.” Indy’s superior play on both lines could give the Colts an edge against the Buffalo and Kansas City defenses. That was a harder case to make after Sunday. “My biggest takeaway (from Week 9) is what happened to Indy,” another exec said. “It feels like Pittsburgh was on the edge coming off Sunday night, and here comes this great Indy offense, and they got after Daniel Jones and hit him a bunch. It just throws it all up in the air.” |
