The Daily Briefing Monday, November 7, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

Dan Hanzus of NFL.com notes that the current scheduled game is Cincinnati at Pittsburgh.  Hanzus has spotted Jets at Patriots, buried at 1 p.m. on a CBS doubleheader.  CBS has two fine games in the 4:25 slot, so Dallas at Minnesota or Chargers at Chiefs could also be in play.  And the former could go early to bolster the loss of Cincinnati-Pittsburgh (although Eagles at Colts and Browns at Bills are also solid CBS early games).  FOX might also be in line to get a Flex from the CBS bounty that day.

– – –

This from Scott Kacsmar:

@ScottKacsmar

#NFL Games won by team scoring < 21 points, Weeks 1-9

2022 – 33

2021 – 23

2020 – 11

2019 – 24

2018 – 22

2017 – 31

2016 – 22

2015 – 21

2017 continues to be the only recent season close to this one in terms of bad QB play/low scoring.

– – –

Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com points out that teams coming off a bye week are 6-2 when playing a team that played the week before.

CHICAGO

QB JUSTIN FIELDS may have taken the lead in the Class of 2021 QB Derby.  Peter King:

The best player in football Sunday? Not Tyreek Hill. Not even Joe Mixon. Justin Fields. Not only did he set the NFL regular-season record for a QB with 178 rushing yards, but he had his third straight dominant game in a 35-32 loss to Miami. In the Bears’ first 23 games after drafting Fields, they’d never scored 31 points or more. In his last three games, he’s averaging 31.3 points and 107 rushing yards. What a treat to watch.

And this:

In the last three weeks, the second-year Chicago quarterback has been reinvigorated by play-calling from Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy that allows him to run more, to throw outside the numbers more, to throw more from play-action. The result in the last three games: The Bears have scored 94 points, Fields has rushed for 320 yards, and Fields has thrown six TDs and one interception. The Bears have beaten New England but lost to Dallas and Miami … but have left the impression that they’re using the speedy and versatile Fields in a much smarter way.

The most impressive metric is Fields’ “rushing yards over expected,” particularly in his NFL quarterback record 178-yard rushing day Sunday in the 35-32 loss to Miami. By Next Gen’s tracking, Fields’ 15 carries should have netted him 65 yards. But his athletic skillset added 113 yards over the expected number. And his 88 yards after contact showed he can be a physical runner, not just one to make tacklers miss. Getsy is smart to design some runs for Fields, and to encourage him to take off running instead of forcing throws when the windows are tight. He scrambled for 61 yards on one run Sunday.

Getsy is obviously allowing Fields to use his mobility in the passing game as well. Per NGS, in the first six weekends of the season, Fields was out of the pocket or on the run on 16.5 percent of his pass attempts; in the last three weeks, it’s risen to 25 percent of his throws. He’s gained more confidence in his outside-the-numbers throws, with 58 percent of his attempts on those routes, compared to 43 percent in the first six weeks.

Smart offensive play-callers learn what their quarterback does best, running and passing, and build gameplans for their strengths. It’ll be interesting to see Fields against some good defenses down the stretch of this season—Jets, Packers, Eagles, Bills, Vikings—as the Bears continue to figure out how to maximize Fields’ talents to lead them into the future.

DETROIT

Lions nugget:

@Lions

Kerby Joseph and Aidan Hutchinson’s interceptions mark the first time two #Lions rookies have recorded an interception in the same game since 1952 🙌

@JKERB25

@aidanhutch97

GREEN BAY

So many ways to put into perspective how below his standards it was for QB AARON RODGERS to throw 3 INTs Sunday in Detroit.  Peter King citing FOX has one:

In 2020 and 2021, per Fox Sports, Aaron Rodgers had 377 pass attempts against NFC North foes. Zero interceptions.

In the first 36 minutes in Detroit Sunday, Rodgers had 23 attempts against the NFC North Lions. Three interceptions.

The Lions had only made 2 INTs in their first 8 games.  Then, they pick off Rodgers three times.

It was the 5^th time Rodgers had 3 INTs in a game, the first since 2017 at Carolina.  All five games have been on the road.

– – –

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com put this out on Sunday, before Rodgers floundered in Detroit:

After the Packers failed to step up and trade for receiver Chase Claypool, a year after the Packers failed to step up and sign receiver Odell Beckham Jr., it was suggested (it sounds better with the passive voice, since I suggested it) that the Packers don’t really want to make those deals.

As the theory that was suggested (by me) goes, the Packers simply want quarterback Aaron Rodgers to think they’re trying. Even if the effort is half-assed, half-hearted, and/or hoof-hearted.

Today, there’s more circumstantial evidence to bolster the notion that the Packers simply want to be perceived as making the effort, even if they had no real desire to make a deal. Most notably, there are Simultaneous Sunday Splash! reports from both NFL Media and ESPN that the Packers tried to trade for Raiders tight end Darren Waller prior to Tuesday’s deadline.

Rule of thumb. When the two leading sources for Sunday Splashes! have the exact same report, someone really wants to get the word out. And while it’s possibly Waller’s camp that is spreading the news, that would make no sense. If Waller wanted out, news of interest in him elsewhere would have emerged before the trade deadline, in the hopes of basically leaking a trade into existence. At this point, Waller gains nothing by creating the impression that he hopes to get gone.

Instead, these bread crumbs trace back to the Packers, and a deliberate effort to persuade those on the outside (or one very important person on the inside) that they made a genuine effort to upgrade the receiving corps for the stretch run.

Consider the ledes from the two leading articles.

“The Green Bay Packers were unable to pull off any deals before last Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort,” Adam Schefter of ESPN.com writes.

“The Packers stood pat at the trade deadline. . . . However, it wasn’t for a lack of trying,” NFL Media declares.

Schefty also reports (i.e., was asked by the Packers to say out loud) that Green Bay offered for Claypool both a second-round pick and a late-round pick. It’s a detail that pushes back against the argument that, if the Steelers picked Chicago over Green Bay because Pittsburgh believed the Bears would have a higher second-round pick, why didn’t Green Bay try to sweeten the pot?

Again, they want us all (including Rodgers) to know that they did.

Publicly, Rodgers said all the right things about the team’s failure to finalize a trade. Indeed, both articles conclude with the quotes from the quarterback that seem to endorse the decision to stick with the status quo.

Privately, who knows what Rodgers has said? And to those who’d say he’s currently not bashful about airing out dirty laundry, Rodgers was heavily criticized for calling out unnamed teammates for making mental mistakes on 20 percent of all snaps only one week earlier. It was arguably too soon to remind everyone of his surprising late-career heel turn.

Regardless, the Packers are putting in plenty of effort to make sure it’s widely known that they tried to make a deal. If they’d tried that hard to actually make a deal before the deadline came and went, maybe they would have.

Charles Robinson of YahooSports.com:

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Down the stretch last season in the Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady MVP race, the debate became a quintessential measure of success in the face of perceived weakness.

Rodgers’ best argument for MVP was that when you looked at Brady’s surrounding pass-catching pieces and offensive line, the collections were far better than anything Rodgers had in Green Bay. One NFC head coach put a finer point on it, labeling the assortment of Rodgers’ wideouts and tight ends “one great player and a bunch of guys.”

“Look at what he’s working with,” the coach said. “He’s elevating everything.”

Roughly 10 months since that conversation, elevating has been transformed into excoriating. That is, if you could accurately read the lips of the Packers quarterback during Sunday’s stunning 15-9 loss to the Detroit Lions. Arguably no other defeat in Rodgers’ career featured such a demonstrative display of anger and frustration. And rightly so, given that this looked more like Green Bay bottoming out on the floor of the Mariana Trench than just losing to a bad team.

In a postgame news conference that was strung together by sighs and painful pauses, Rodgers sounded close to defeated, even in the moments he was trying to project something positive.

“I had some sh**** throws for sure,” he said. “… Yeah, pretty disappointed. Uh, that about sums it up. Just disappointed.”

“This is a lot of life lessons, for sure, this year. But luckily it’s not over. There’s still a lot of games left.”

Frankly, I don’t know how many would count the Packers lucky when they see the remaining schedule. Especially after watching the loss to Detroit, which was exponentially worse than getting “exposed” by the Buffalo Bills just one week earlier. At the very least, it was a clarifying defeat for some speculated theories about this team. Now? Some of the theories are falling into the “accepted facts” column.

Should Rodgers, Packers have parted ways before 2022 season?

First, the “great player” that the NFC coach was referring to, Davante Adams, was holding it all together for Rodgers more than we understood over the past several seasons. Second, whether it’s out of frustration or unfathomable decline from last season’s MVP perfection, Rodgers is making significant on-field mistakes. Third, none of this seems like it’s going to get much better with a remaining slate that has five potential playoff teams in eight games.

Finally, let’s just call last offseason for what it was: A mistake.

If there was no way of keeping Adams in the fold on this team, there was no sense in doing a massive extension with Rodgers, either. Hindsight isn’t a great measure for NFL teams, but it’s a remarkable vehicle for accepting the current state of affairs. And for the Packers, reality looks like this:

Rodgers should have been traded rather than re-signed to the massive extension. Or if it was truly his wish, he should have retired once he knew Adams was heading out the door. Either option would have been better than what he coined on Sunday as “frustration” but not “misery.” He’s right about that distinction. All of this right now — this is frustration. But when the season ends and Rodgers is sitting there staring at another failed year with no easy fix in sight, that will be misery.

It all brings us back to last offseason, a time when Rodgers could have been traded to the Denver Broncos for a package similar to what that franchise gave up for Russell Wilson. All it would have taken is Rodgers meeting with Green Bay’s front office and telling the Packers he believed it was time for a change the week after the team’s playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Jan. 22.

Don’t let anyone tell you differently. Had Rodgers pushed for it, that trade would have come together and this entire timeline of Green Bay’s future would look far different than it does now.

With that in mind, the Packers and Rodgers have to look one more time at whether some kind of fresh start for both can still be salvaged from last offseason’s mistake. Whether this season is spun as a culmination of surrounding injuries and inexperience that pushed Rodgers’ play off a cliff or just a disagreement on the scheme, the play here is for Green Bay to try and get something out of this flickering relationship while it still can. And the play for Rodgers is to shape up how he wants to end his career.

What a 2023 divorce could look like

Some will laugh at that suggestion, but this is the NFL. There will be interest. Not only that, some franchises might even appear to be one veteran quarterback away from something special in 2023. There’s always a buyer for a player who was a back-to-back league MVP only one season ago. More than one. There’s nothing stopping Rodgers from taking the Tom Brady year-to-year approach. Particularly if it’s the right franchise with an ideal set of surrounding talent in need of a quarterback to turn the key.

Yes, his contract would seem to be a problem. Yet it’s not untradable. Rodgers can be dealt prior to June 1 and the Packers would eat a nasty $40.3 million dead salary-cap charge in 2023 and then be done with it for good. Or they could trade him after June 1 and divide the dead charge to a manageable $15.8 million in 2023 and $24.48 million in 2024. While eating that dead cap isn’t an enticing option, it kickstarts a process that avoids doing a patch job in 2023 and hoping Rodgers somehow has one last flourish left. Maybe even a very unlikely Super Bowl flourish.

But consider the flip side. Green Bay’s 3-6 record this season could put the team either directly in play for one of the better first-round quarterbacks in what is considered to be a strong class in the 2023 NFL draft. Or it at the very least could put the Packers into striking distance for trading up in the draft for one of the better quarterbacks if that’s a priority. If developing the young receivers is going to be the goal — which is what it looks like given the lack of a deal at the trade deadline — then why not start grooming those players with the quarterback who is going to be around in 2024 and beyond?

That’s what the Packers and Rodgers need to grapple with now. They need to look at 2023 and ask what’s the point of doing this one more year. Is the Super Bowl in reach with this current roster? If not, what significant steps need to be taken for that to happen? Is there money and draft capital to make dramatic difference-making additions?

It doesn’t feel like that right now. If anything, it feels like this is the regression that everyone hoped wouldn’t happen when Adams left. But it did. And now last offseason can be seen for the mistake it was. It turns out the whole “Last Dance” thing probably should have applied to everyone involved.

It still can. Even if it’s one year too late.

DALLAS

Peter King crunches the numbers in response to a reader on the topic of RBs EZEKIEL ELLIOTT and TONY POLLARD:

From Sean Westendorf of Waverly, Iowa: “While I agree with you that Tony Pollard is an exceptional running back, I find it difficult to say he has surpassed Ezekiel Elliott as best on the roster. More importantly, I believe it is the two of them together, working as a ‘Thunder and Lightning’ duo, that gives the Cowboys run game the edge. I would also like to point out the amount of joy Elliott had while watching Pollard have a monster game last Sunday. He was always seen on the FOX video cameras grinning ear-to-ear when Pollard ripped off a long run. It would be easy for Elliott to turn his back on Pollard, but it shows what a special teammate Elliott is and how much he wants this team to succeed.”

That’s a significant thing, Sean. Thanks for pointing it out. I’m using the old saw from Bill Parcells, “I’m going by what I see” here. Since opening day 2021, the stat lines of Pollard and Elliott:

Pollard: 211 rushes, 1,225 yards, 5.81 yards per carry.

Elliott: 346 rushes, 1,445, 4.18 yards per carry.

To me, 1.6 extra yards per rush is important. It’s a big edge.

Your point about two different styles of back is interesting and I think valid. But let’s say Pollard runs the ball equal to Elliott for the rest of the season—say they each get 14 rushes per game in the last nine games of the season, instead of, say, Elliott getting 19 and Pollard nine. If the yards-per-carry stays constant, an equal number of carries over the last eight games would net Pollard 56 more rushing yards. It might not be worth messing with team chemistry, but when I see five more rushing first downs on a team with less than 28 minutes of ball possession each game, I think it’s something to consider.

That said – in 2022, Elliott is getting 15.6 carries per game and Pollard is getting 10.2.  So the difference is 5.4 per game, not 10 as King hypothesizes.  But we would add that Pollard is 6.2 per carry, 2.1 more than Elliott’s 4.1.

The big difference is that Pollard has 3 runs of 46 yards or more.  Elliott’s longest is 28.

WASHINGTON

Peter King on the Dan Snyder selling the Commanders rumors – with one very logical reason that a play by Jeff Bezos to buy the team might fail:

I figured when word came down that the Washington owner had engaged Bank of America to investigate selling all or part of the team, it had to be a full sale. What wingnut would be dumb enough to invest, say, $1 billion or more to go into business as a minority partner with the worst owner in recent NFL history? Not so fast, I heard over the weekend. I kept hearing, If anyone buys a minority stake, there has to be a clear path to buy out Snyder—in a defined number of years. And, re: the hot candidate to buy the team, billionaire Jeff Bezos, I also heard this from a reliable executive well-versed on ownership matters: “It’ll never happen. Dan Snyder detests The Washington Post. No way he’d sell to the owner of that paper.”

CAROLINA

Buried by the Bengals, interim coach Steve Wilks purges more of Matt Rhule’s disciples from the Panthers coaching staff.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Two more assistant coaches have lost their jobs in the wake of the Panthers’ ugly loss to the Bengals on Sunday.

Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks fired cornerbacks coach Evan Cooper and defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni today, according to Darin Gantt of Panthers.com.

They’re the third and fourth assistants fired by Wilks since he became head coach. Wilks previously fired defensive coordinator Phil Snow and assistant special teams coach Ed Foley immediately after Wilks was promoted to take over for the fired Matt Rhule.

All four coaches fired by Wilks have been close allies of Rhule. Cooper, Snow and Foley all worked for Rhule at both Temple and Baylor. Pasqualoni, the former Syracuse and UConn head coach, had become friends with Rhule when they were both college head coaches.

Wilks made the changes although the Panthers are on a short week with the division rival Falcons coming to town Thursday night, just two weeks after the teams battled in epic fashion in Atlanta.

TAMPA BAY

Peter King:

Tom Brady, who is 45 (have you heard?), earned his 55th come-from-behind win against the Rams Sunday, passing Peyton Manning for the most in history, and two things happened in the process: Brady saved the season for the 4-5 Bucs. And he became the first player to throw for 100,000 yards (regular season and playoffs) in his career. He’s at 100,116 passing yards. To put it in some perspective, Drew Brees is second on the all-time yardage list, 8.2 miles behind Brady.

KANSAS CITY

Peter King is pointing out what has to be the greatest in-game disparity in completions in NFL history – in a game decided by three points:

Patrick Mahomes: 43 completions.

Malik Willis of Tennessee: five completions.

LAS VEGAS

After losing in New Orleans and Jacksonville the last two weeks, there are those wondering if Josh McDaniels is one-and-done.  This from Jonathan Jones of CBSSports.com:

The 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders are facing their worst start since a 1-7 beginning to the 2018 season with a second-time first-year head coach on a team that made the playoffs just last year.

But I still don’t get the impression there’s trouble brewing in Vegas just yet for Josh McDaniels as it relates to his employment under owner Mark Davis.

“Mark has to see the overall structure of the team is better,” a source told CBS Sports recently. “Management from the coaching side is a lot better. Jon [Gruden] was frenetic and all over the place.

“There are new systems and everything is new. It’s complex but they’ve tried to simplify things a lot.”

On Sunday, the Raiders lost their third game this season after having led by at least 17 points. That simplified offense Las Vegas ran in the first half that was essentially “Get Davante Adams the Ball” got lost in the second half in the collapse against Jacksonville.

The Raiders have the talent to win, even if they could use more stellar play along the interior defensive line and corner. The offensive line has held up well enough. But each week seems to bring a Whac-A-Mole level of issues across the board.

The Raiders have locked up several veterans with good contracts including Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Derek Carr’s re-worked contract made 2022 a prove-it year for him in Vegas, and he has a half season left to do just that.

McDaniels’ offense is well known for its complexity, so it’s no surprise that in an NFL where there’s less offseason and practice time than ever before, things aren’t moving swiftly for the Raiders.

But as other first-year head coaches like Kevin O’Connell and Brian Daboll win at a higher clip with their groups, Davis could be peeking over the hedges a bit. He didn’t retain Rich Bisaccia after the Raiders clearly rallied around the interim coach last year.

“No owner wants to look stupid,” the source said.

INDIANAPOLIS

Something of a surprise, but not a shock, is that veteran coach Frank Reich was canned by Jim Irsay on Monday.  Even more unexpected was who is replacing him.  Joseph Zucker of Bleacher Report:

The Indianapolis Colts named former center Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach Monday.

This comes after the team fired head coach Frank Reich, who had led the Colts to a 3-5-1 record this season.

Saturday spent 13 seasons with the Colts, making 197 appearances, and finished his career with the Green Bay Packers. He was a six-time Pro Bowler and a two-time All-Pro.

Indianapolis’ decision to make Saturday the head coach, even on an interim basis, is a shock. He has no experience as an NFL head coach, having turned down the opportunity in 2019 to become the Colts’ offensive line coach:

@RapSheet (Ian Rapoport)

From NFL Now: The #Colts hire Jeff Saturday as their interim coach, a move that no doubt highly qualified candidates who are minorities have noted.

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero noted the Rooney Rule doesn’t come into play whenever a team is hiring an interim head coach. Still, the optics aren’t good when Saturday bypasses the line to this degree.

The Athletic’s Zak Keefer also highlighted a few internal candidates who would’ve been better suited to succeed Reich:

@zkeefer

The Colts bypass two former NFL head coaches already on staff — Gus Bradley, John Fox — and a rising head-coaching candidate in Bubba Ventrone, to name former center Jeff Saturday the interim coach.

The DB notes that Bradley, Fox and Ventrone are not among Rapoport’s “highly qualified candidates who are minorities”

The Colts have now benched Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, a move that made an ailing offense even worse. Indianapolis mustered just 121 total yards and averaged 2.0 yards per play in Sunday’s 26-3 loss to the New England Patriots.

Now the franchise has jettisoned Reich, someone with two playoff trips in his first four years, for a replacement about to embark on his first coaching gig.

It sure looks like Indianapolis is waving the white flag and focusing on draft position.

In the case of Saturday, the plan might go beyond bringing back a fan favorite to build goodwill for a time, though, per Keefer:

@zkeefer

From what I’ve heard, wouldn’t be stunned if this is more of an audition for Jeff Saturday than your typical interim role.

As in: Colts want to see if he could be the full-time answer at head coach. Why else go outside the building with other qualified candidates?

For 13 years, the Colts had one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history in Peyton Manning. Then they tanked their way into another generational talent at QB, Andrew Luck. Their combined presence was a stabilizing force for the organization, and Luck’s sudden retirement in 2019 has allowed Indianapolis’ internal dysfunction to slowly rise to the fore.

That was initially symbolized by the team’s revolving door at quarterback. Monday’s coaching change will raise further concerns about the Colts’ long-term direction.

Connor Orr of SI.com also stands up for bypassed coaches, most specifically the OC that was fired just last week:

Talk to people in the coaching world who are fighting for a more equitable and diverse system, and the refrain you’ll hear is that this is less about skin color than it is about résumés.

Stacking up a lifetime of work only to be passed over in favor of Sean McVay’s binder ring repairman can be a maddening experience, which is why some coaches feel so cynical and defeated about the modern hiring process.

And then something like Monday happens. Jeff Saturday, the ESPN analyst and former Colts center who last toed the sidelines for [frantically opens up Google] Hebron Christian Academy in Dacula, Ga., is now the team’s interim head coach after the firing of Frank Reich.

See if you can follow the chain of events in order and notice a handful of coaches with thick and promising résumés get wildly screwed, which might help explain why so many people in the football world are feeling defeated at the moment.

First, on Oct. 24, Jim Irsay makes it clear the team is moving on from Matt Ryan and pivoting to 2021 sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, clearly emphasizing a quarterback problem. On Nov. 1, the team fires Marcus Brady, one of the few offensive coordinators of color in the NFL’s developmental pipeline, announced via “thumbs up” tweet, making it look like Brady was the reason for the quarterback problem. On Nov. 7, Irsay fires Reich and installs Saturday, a move that—just my opinion—was made far easier with Brady, a logical in-house interim head coach option, out of the picture.

Irsay also chose Saturday over two former NFL head coaches—defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive assistant John Fox—as well as special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone, considered by some to be a future head coach.

One person familiar with the team’s inner workings had trouble speculating on exactly who would even be able to call plays on offense for the remainder of the season.

Irsay owns an NFL team and can do with it whatever he wants, as he plainly exhibited on Monday. There is no mistaking who has taken over in the cockpit and decided they suddenly know how to fly an airplane. But from an optics standpoint, he cannot reconcile the reasons he gave for speaking out against Dan Snyder just two weeks ago—that he wanted to leave the league in a better place—and whatever reasoning he’ll have for installing Saturday over a heap of far more qualified candidates. While the two are in completely different buckets in terms of seriousness and scope, the result is still outrage, skepticism, anger and whatever else might come up on my next Thesaurus.com search of “cynical.”

I understand that we now live in a time where you can be a talking head on basic cable one moment and Secretary of Defense the next. I know that we can now pay $8 a month for a blue checkmark and masquerade as an expert in any field of our own choosing (seriously, follow my page for up-to-the minute advice on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange), but the question is: Why would we want to? Why would anyone interested in the future of the NFL, who is well aware of its current track record on diversity and cronyism and well aware of the absolutely towering bucket of you-know-what that would have smashed into the Texans’ facility if they tried to backdoor the hiring of Josh McCown last year, believe this to be a reasonable course of action?

NFL interim gigs are big deals for coaches. It would have been a huge deal for Brady, who could have bolstered his head-coaching candidacy. It could have been a big deal for Bradley, who would undoubtedly like to have another crack at a head-coaching gig after his tenure in Jacksonville ended. Nine weeks on a daily press conference microphone could have been a great opportunity for Ventrone, who can apparently light a room on fire when he steps inside, but would likely be dismissed as a special teams coach when it came to head-coaching opportunities.

In all the fairness we can muster, Saturday was reportedly a consultant and had a long and successful NFL career. For the lay fan who doesn’t spend their time agonizing over NFL minutiae in Indianapolis, perhaps he is a fine candidate for the job in that he’s familiar and knows his way around a locker room. As Ben Standig of The Athletic points out, Steve Kerr was once an ESPN talking head and former player with no coaching experience (so was Steve Nash). Owners always have their short lists, and Irsay may know something about Saturday we do not.

But very soon, perhaps at this moment, he’s going to have to stand in front of a room full of experienced coaches who have been to and won Super Bowls, and young coaches who work mind-numbing hours away from their families so that they can one day climb the ladder and earn their brass ring the hard way, and tell them to ask “How high?” when he says “jump.”

Maybe we, in the media, are the real cynics, and this won’t be a problem. Coaches are used to falling into the chain of command. Or maybe Saturday and, more importantly, Irsay will have to feel the heat on this for a second. They’ll have to understand what this actually means to other people.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com is miffed to find out that the Rooney Rule does not apply to interim coaching hires when the team goes outside the building.  However, Florio does have an answer about elevating Saturday to a full-time spot after the Colts go 8-0 and then win the Super Bowl:

The decision of the Colts to make Jeff Saturday the interim head coach raises an important question. In going outside the current coaching staff, do the Colts have to comply with the Rooney Rule?

According to the NFL, Rooney Rule compliance is not required for interim hires.

“The rule does not apply to an interim head coach during the season,” Chief NFL Spokesman Brian McCarthy told PFT via email. “It does apply after the conclusion of the team’s season. The club would have to fulfill the rule before hiring a full-time coach.”

In other words, Colts owner Jim Irsay can hire Saturday to handle the rest of the season. However, Saturday can’t be given the permanent job without a full-blown search that complies with the rule.

Whether that should or shouldn’t be the rule is a different issue. It’s a potentially powerful loophole, which could be used by a team to get a head start on hiring a coveted head coach who is not under contract with another team. If that would ever happen, however, the team may have a hard time persuading minority candidates to interview for the job, once the season ends.

Regardless of the application of the Rooney Rule, it’s an affront to the members of the current coaching staff to not pick one of them to finish the job, and to entrust the position to someone with no experience at all as a college or pro football coach. It’s one of the issues Saturday will have to navigate when he meets for the first time with his new staff.

But what if Saturday goes 6-0 – and with two games left in 2022, Irsay wants to send a message to his inspired and motivated team that Saturday, unlike Bruce Arians in 2012 when Chuck Pagano had cancer, will be around next year?  Sounds like that would be verboten.

More from Kevin Patra of NFL.com:

Monday’s firing is the first time in Irsay’s 25 years as Colts owner he’s dismissed a coach during a season. Just over a week ago, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that Reich’s job was considered “safe.” However, that sentiment quickly changed following a 26-3 loss to New England.

Reich becomes the second head coach in the NFL to be fired in-season, joining the Panthers’ Matt Rhule on the unemployment line.

Reich generated a 40-33-1 regular-season record in four and a half seasons in Indy with a 1-2 postseason record.

The instability under center became the coach’s undoing. The Colts have started seven QBs in Reich’s tenure, including Luck (16 games), Jacoby Brissett (15), Brian Hoyer (one), Philip Rivers (16), Carson Wentz (17), Matt Ryan (seven) and Sam Ehlinger (two).

In the previous two weeks, Reich made moves to jumpstart a woebegone offense, benching Ryan in favor of sixth-round Ehlinger and firing offensive coordinator Marcus Brady. Neither move paid off.

With Reich out in Indy, the question becomes whether Ballard will be the man selecting the next coach or whether Irsay will elect to sweep out the entire front office as well.

Some history from King:

I think there are decisions that reverberate, and this is one I was thinking about late Sunday night, as Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans, heavy underdogs at Kansas City, forced a 14-9 first-half lead. In January 2018, the Titans and Colts had coaching vacancies. Indy GM Chris Ballard had the most desirable job out there, because he had Andrew Luck and everyone wanted to coach Luck, the coachable franchise quarterback. For Ballard, his decision came down to an offensive mind, Josh McDaniels, or a defensive mind, Vrabel. Ballard really liked Vrabel—thought he had the tough demeanor to be a good coach in the league long-term. He obviously liked McDaniels too, the man who’d been close to Tom Brady for a decade. Ballard chose McDaniels. Tennessee chose Vrabel. Man, Ballard must die watching Vrabel, who is still only 47, coaching his biggest rival now.

Of course, McDaniels abdicated after being hired.  But his chosen DC Matt Eberflus remained and now is Chicago’s head coach and starting to get some traction.  Frank Reich was hired as a second choice and he brought along Nick Sirianni, now undefeated with Eagles.  Now both those assistants are gone, and so is Reich.

JACKSONVILLE

Peter King ponders the trade that sent WR CALVIN RIDLEY to Jacksonville:

This is what we know:

Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke is a risk-taker anyway, and it’s understandable why he had been trying to acquire Ridley since last June. Even though Jacksonville takes on Ridley’s full $11.1-million compensation in 2023, Baalke didn’t saddle the team with a prohibitive draft giveaway. Ian Rapoport had some good details on the compensation, and per Rapoport plus a league source, here are most of the terms of the deal:

2023: Jacksonville will send its sixth-round pick to Atlanta if Ridley is not reinstated by the NFL at some point before the draft. If he is reinstated—which is no sure thing—Atlanta will receive Jacksonville’s fifth-round pick in the ’23 draft.

2024: If Ridley is on the Jaguars’ 53-man roster when final cuts are made at the end of the 2023 preseason, Atlanta would receive at least Jacksonville’s fourth-round pick in ’24. If he reaches certain play-time and performance markers, that pick would increase to a third-rounder. And if Ridley signs a new contract with the Jaguars at some unspecified time before the ’24 draft, the pick would rise to a second-rounder in ’24.

So the risk for the Jags is if Ridley is a total washout and doesn’t play there, they’re on the hook for relatively little compared to the upside. Ridley is a player the Jaguars need for Trevor Lawrence—a very good outside-the-numbers receiver who, though he’ll turn 29 in 2023, would be a strong addition to a building team. That is, if he’s in a good frame of mind, and if the NFL reinstates him.

As to why Atlanta would let loose a receiver in his prime who caught 90 balls for 1,374 yards in 2020, it’s unclear. Part of the reason could well be that Ridley—drafted by Thomas Dimitroff in the first round in 2018, coached by Dan Quinn and Raheem Morris, with Matt Ryan as his quarterback—has zero of those who drafted, coached, nurtured, and threw to him remaining in Atlanta. If he came back to the team in 2023 post-suspension, he’d be coming back to a new quarterback (either Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder), playing alongside a new franchise receiver (Drake London). He’d played only five largely unimpressive games for new coach Arthur Smith in 2021 before his mental health pause. Had he returned to the Falcons in 2023, life, and football, would never have been the same, and the Falcons likely weren’t pleased about the prospect of committing significant money to Ridley.

Also, Ridley did not appeal his year’s suspension by the NFL for betting on football, handed down last March. That seems odd. According to SportsHandle.com, Ridley, after saying on Oct. 31, 2021 that he was stepping away from football to focus on his mental health, made six bets totaling $3,900 that included the Falcons to win, and two $100 bets on other NFL games. That’s a breach of a clear NFL policy that says players can’t gamble on NFL games.

But at the time, the NFL was called hypocritical because it was in bed with gambling companies, and respected former players like Emmanuel Acho and Torrey Smith were highly critical of the ban. Very often, players appeal suspensions, particularly lengthy ones, and get some relief. It figures that Ridley would have at least had a chance to cut some weeks off the suspension. But he didn’t try. What does that mean? Maybe nothing. Maybe not.

In the end, Jacksonville took a shot on a player at the top of his game just two years ago, and if he plays well, the cost will be well worth it. Atlanta traded a player it apparently had lost faith in, saved $11 million, and could recoup second- and fifth-round picks if Ridley rekindles his career. Seems like a strange, but good, trade for both teams. We’re not going to know the real result for well over a year.

BUFFALO

Peter King that the Bills will not win a division game until after Thanksgiving:

The Bills, odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl on Labor Day, will enter December without a division win in September, October or November.

They’re 0-2 in the AFC East. Starting Dec. 1, they have four division games left.

MIAMI

If they keep it up, the tandem of WRs TYREEK HILL and JAYLEN WADDLE will be the most prolific in NFL history – Peter King:

The start for Miami receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been historic. No combination of receivers in NFL has averaged 200 yards per game, and through Miami’s first nine games, Hill and Waddle have.

I went back through NFL history over the past 50 years to see whether Hill and Waddle were on the way to something big. They are. I compared Hill/Waddle to some of the greatest single-season combinations for receivers in the last half-century. This is not a comprehensive list; I have the best combined seasons for Lynn Swann/John Stallworth and Fred Biletnikoff/Cliff Branch listed, because all four of those receivers made the Hall of Fame.

I ranked the combinations by total yards per game for the two receivers, keeping in mind that the NFL played 14-game seasons prior to 1978, 16-game seasons from 1978 to 2020, and 17-game seasons the last two years.

Want to know why, regardless of the numbers Hill and Waddle put up this year, Dolfans will always have a special feel for Duper and Clayton? In Dan Marino’s second season as Miami QB, the Marks Brothers scored 26 touchdowns and each had more than 1,300 receiving yards. That’s a high bar for Hill and Waddle to jump over, but they’re off to a good half-season start.

– – –

King sings the praises of GM CHRIS GRIER:

Since spring 2020, Miami GM Chris Grier has traded for six first-round picks, traded away four, and used first-rounders to either draft or acquire Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. That’s one heck of a job. Chubb missed 24 games due to injury in his first four years, which is a worry that won’t go away. But Miami signing Chubb, 26, to a multi-year deal gives Miami the piece to its defensive front it had lacked. What I also like for the Dolphins: Even after the franchise was docked next year’s top pick in the Stephen Ross tampering scandal, Grier retains three picks in the top three rounds of the ’23 draft, a second- and two third-round picks.

NEW YORK JETS

Peter King chats with Robert Saleh on his way home from beating Buffalo:

“I read a quote from Bill Parcells,” Robert Saleh said, driving home from MetLife Stadium around 6 p.m. Sunday, after the biggest win of his head-coaching life. “‘In New York, it’s euphoria or disaster.’”

Yup. Parcells said it—about 78 times a year as coach of the Giants, then the Jets. I’d asked Saleh about his comment that he’s “taking receipts on all the people who continually mock us.” Saleh, a Detroit guy, didn’t care after a lousy opening loss to Baltimore two months ago that he was inviting scorn. In fact, in the grand tradition of Parcells, Saleh wanted the scorn.

“I did,” he said. “You know, until you’re here, you don’t realize it. But there was so much negativity, so much raining down on a young football team. We’re so young. I just felt like it was important to kind of deflect the attention off the players and bring it on me. You know that it was gonna come down on me. Any time you challenge the media, they’re gonna come out guns blazing.

“We have such a young group. They’re so talented. I believed in them, and I just wanted them to have a chance. That statement was more about allowing them to go play freely, and shouldering the criticism myself. In the world of social media, these kids are impressionable. They have feelings too. It’s like, shoot, if they just play football, just play, feel free, play the game they’ve loved since they were kids, hey, they’re gonna be pretty good.”

Jets 20, Bills 17.

The Jets are 6-2 since Saleh began taking receipts.

They’re a half-game behind the almighty Bills in the AFC East.

They’re not going away.

And this:

1. Even without injured star rookie Breece Hall, they can run it. New York ran for 174 yards. When you run it great, you can keep a great quarterback off the field. “I’d be interested to know what our time of possession was in the second half,” Saleh said, “because I think we did a good job of kind of getting them out of rhythm.” The Jets held it for 17:39 of the second half, Buffalo for 12:21. Jets 34 plays, Bills just 25. I asked Saleh about running it so well, and he channeled his Parcells. “The best defenses in the world,” he said, “are the ones that watch. They’re on the sidelines because the offense can eat up the clock.”

2. They got quarterback Zach Wilson out of his funk. One of the first things Saleh said about Wilson (no turnovers after three picks last week against New England) was, “He had a great throwaway. One of the great things about Zach is how he takes coaching. We told him, ‘Trust that throwing the ball away is a positive play.’ We’re not asking Zach to be our Superman yet. One day we will. And there will be times we need him to be, but now’s not that time.”

3. The future is tough, but promising. After the bye this week, the Jets have this tough road: at New England, Chicago, at Minnesota, at Buffalo. Yikes. “Every game’s a championship game,” Saleh said. “Like today—Buffalo’s incredibly well-coached. Incredibly talented. The quarterback’s ridiculous. We can’t let the narrative of this Goliath coming into our building be the story, and we won’t in the coming weeks either.”

THIS AND THAT

HINTS FROM ODELL

Jelani Scott of SI.com:

NFL fans looking for more insight into the factors that could be weighing on Beckham’s pending decision, however, may have received an interesting peek behind the curtain from the man himself thanks to a recent interview. In a clip shared Sunday from an upcoming episode of Complex’s Volume, Beckham name-dropped the Bills, Packers, Cowboys and his first NFL team, the Giants, as teams he’s been in contact with before discussing the ideal situation for the next chapter of his career.

“Whether it’s Buffalo, Green Bay calling, the Cowboys, reunion with the Giants, I want to be able to spill—not saying I only got three or four left, but these next three or four years—into something where I can buy a home, like I can call this place home,” Beckham said.

The 30-year-old’s desire to plant roots wherever he decides to take his talents is understandable considering the significant milestones he experienced during his eighth NFL season. Beckham won his first Super Bowl with the Rams on Feb. 13 then welcomed the birth of his son, Zydn, four days later.

SURPRISE!

Mike Sando of The Athletic has a good list of the 10 biggest surprises in a season filled with them:

1. The 10 biggest surprises in the NFL this season … and what happens next.

• Geno Smith vastly outplaying Russell Wilson: Going into the season with Smith and Drew Lock as your quarterbacks after trading Wilson had people in the league thinking Seattle was a leading candidate to turn over its leadership in 2023. Smith had started five games over the previous six seasons, with his teams averaging 19 points per game on offense in those starts. Lock had ranked 34th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per pass play over the previous three seasons.

Midway through the 2022 season, all evidence suggests Wilson was holding back Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron from implementing the full scheme he brought to Seattle from the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, counter to popular narratives suggesting coach Pete Carroll was holding back Wilson. Seattle has upgraded at offensive tackle and running back, but that cannot explain away the stark difference in performance between Wilson, who recently signed a contract worth $245 million, and Smith, who is playing on a deal worth $3.5 million.

Seattle is 6-3, with Smith ranking among the NFL’s top 10 qualified passers in completion percentage (first), yards per attempt (seventh), touchdown passes (fourth), passer rating (fourth) and expected points added per pass attempt (eighth) and EPA per pass play (ninth). Denver is 3-5, with Wilson ranking outside the top 10 (and as low as 31st) in those categories.

What’s next: Continued success for Seattle if Smith can manage his body effectively over a full season and get some luck with injuries. He hasn’t been asked to play a full season since 2014, when he started 13 games. There’s a different mindset required for full-season starters than for backups. That is an important transition for Smith to manage.

“They have talent, they have speed, and their division is not what it used to be,” a former head coach, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said in predicting Seattle would outpace some other upstart teams, including the Giants, over the remainder of the season.

There’s less reason to worry about Smith suddenly being exposed as a fraud from a performance standpoint. Smith has demonstrated consistent passing accuracy. His decision making with the football seems good enough (he has an unremarkable rate of turnover-worthy plays, as determined by Pro Football Focus, but did throw a pick-six in a 31-21 victory at Arizona on Sunday). Smith has also shown good pre-snap acumen, such as when he checked to a run play for a touchdown on a third-and-long against Detroit. Beyond those factors, Seattle has a good scheme, two good receivers, viable tight ends, an elite running back, a solid offensive line and a head coach who is enhancing his credentials for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

• Packers and Buccaneers both below .500: It has felt this season like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady outstayed the rosters built to maximize their success. The Packers’ weaponry has dipped below baseline levels required to support even top quarterbacks. The Buccaneers’ interior offensive line has been unable to support an immobile quarterback. What’s so notable is how frustrated both quarterbacks have appeared, with Rodgers entering Jeff George territory Sunday while tossing pick after pouty pick in a 15-9 defeat at Detroit, the Packers’ fifth successive defeat.

What’s next: The comeback victory Brady led against the Rams on Sunday suggests the Buccaneers can hang around long enough in a depressed NFC South to possibly factor for the division title, with only an outside shot at making a deep playoff run. The Packers’ extreme lack of weaponry and the Vikings’ four-game lead in the division paint a bleaker picture for Green Bay. Brady and Rodgers must be part of any solution this season. Are they part of the problem to any extent? Rodgers was Sunday. Are they a smaller part of the solution than they could be? These are difficult questions to answer, but fair ones to raise under the circumstances. The Bucs can at least benefit as Chris Godwin continues to work his way back from injury.

• Jets start 6-3 despite rough offense: The Jets finished last season ranked 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams. If this reflected poorly on defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh, the team’s reversal this season reflects very well on him. The Jets rank No. 2 through Week 9 this season and just notched a signature 20-17 victory against the Buffalo Bills. The transformation has given the Jets a formula by which they can win: on defense and special teams, as long as the offense doesn’t screw up things. This is progress.

What’s next: Taking the next step from competitive/feisty will happen when the Jets know they can count on getting level-headed play from the quarterback position with greater consistency. Sunday marked a step in that direction for Zach Wilson, who lost a fumble when Von Miller sacked him but otherwise suffered no turnovers.

When the Jets announced entering Week 9 that Mike White would supplant Joe Flacco as the team’s No. 2 quarterback, the spin held that White had earned the promotion. This is also the type of move teams make when they are thinking about benching their starters. For example, the Colts promoted Sam Ehlinger to the No. 2 role shortly before naming him the starter over Matt Ryan. Perhaps Wilson got the message and will protect the football sufficiently for the Jets to win games this way in the future. The faster he can move beyond that, the higher the Jets’ ceiling will climb.

• Rams field one of NFL’s worst offenses: The Rams claimed the NFL’s fifth-best offense by EPA per game last season. They have the fifth-worst offense by that measure this season. The loss of 11.0 EPA per game is the NFL’s second-largest year-over-year drop behind only the 13.2-point loss for Indianapolis, which has benched its quarterback, fired its coordinator and converted zero third downs in losing Sunday.

The reasons for the Rams’ decline are easily identifiable but not easily fixable. The personnel is different and lesser, especially on the offensive line. Matthew Stafford’s sack rate has spiked to a career-worst 8.9 percent. His 28 sacks are a career-high for him through eight games and only two shy of his total for 17 games last season. That’s alarming given all the lost years he spent in Detroit.

What’s next: The Cardinals in Week 10, which has been a good matchup for the Rams, including this season (20-12 victory in Week 3). But it’s looking like Stafford will have four playoff victories and a Super Bowl ring to show for his first two seasons in Los Angeles. Bringing back Odell Beckham Jr. might help, but it isn’t going to upgrade the line, which is what needs upgrading the most.

“Two teams have really struggled replacing key players,” an exec said from another team said. “Green Bay with Davante Adams, and the Rams with their left tackle (Andrew Whitworth). One of the biggest mistakes teams make is mis-evaluating their own.”

Whitworth retiring and successor Joseph Noteboom suffering a season-ending injury set back a line that has rotated through centers as well. There might not be an easy fix this season.

• NFL’s highest-paid OL leads Colts’ offensive death spiral: An NFL exec forecast trouble for the Colts’ line when asked before the season what Indy should worry most about entering this season, but Indianapolis has moved well past the “trouble” stage into a disaster zone. The line seems to be the common denominator for Matt Ryan and 2021 rushing champ Jonathan Taylor suddenly becoming far less effective than they’d been previously. Indy is paying linemen Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith and Ryan Kelly between $12.4 million and $20.2 million per year, but the line is now a liability.

What’s next: A victory against the Raiders’ next week? It’s possible, given Las Vegas’ season so far, but if owner Jim Irsay was irate enough last offseason to trade and trash Carson Wentz, imagine what’s coming if the carnage continues this season. Indy averaged 3.6 yards per pass attempt and took nine sacks in its 26-3 defeat at New England on Sunday. The Colts finished this game with minus-34.8 EPA on offense, worst for the Colts in any of their 389 total games since 2000. That is the 24th-worst out of 12,026 total team games since 2000. These are the sorts of defeats that cost coaches their jobs (Update: The Colts fired Frank Reich on Monday).

• Browns field a top-five offense minus Deshaun Watson, and still go 3-5: The Browns reached their bye ranked fourth in offensive EPA per game. Cleveland was one of two teams this season to finish seven of its first eight games with positive EPA on offense. Kansas City was the other. The Browns’ ability to do this despite getting only so-so play from Jacoby Brissett while awaiting Watson’s return from suspension is a surprise.

But with Cleveland floundering on defense, the Browns have struggled to win. They are 0-2 in their two most productive offensive games, losing 31-30 to the Jets despite producing 19.9 EPA on offense, and losing 30-28 to the Chargers with 14.1 EPA on offense. Teams since 2000 are 644-168-3 (.792) when finishing games with 14-20 EPA on offense, the equivalent of faring 2-3 touchdowns better than an average offense might fare. The Browns are now 8-8 in these games since 2000. Every other team has a winning record in them.

What’s next: Three more starts with Brissett (Miami, Buffalo, Tampa Bay) before Watson takes over for finishing games against Houston, Cincinnati, Baltimore, New Orleans, Washington and Pittsburgh. If the Browns are 4-7 when Watson takes over, do they get to 9-8? That seems realistic.

On second thought, the Titans outperforming expectations is no surprise at all. Since Mike Vrabel became coach in 2018, the Titans are the only team to outperform their preseason Vegas win total every season. The Titans are simply Titansing, and never better than against the Chiefs. They took Kansas City to overtime despite converting just one time in 11 chances on third down and completing 5 of 16 passes for 80 yards with rookie Malik Willis making his second start. The Chiefs held a 29-9 lead in first downs and a 91-48 lead in offensive plays run.

The Titans have won games this season without quarterback Ryan Tannehill, pass-rusher Harold Landry and left tackle Taylor Lewan. Those three rank first, second and fifth on the team in average annual salary.

What is the key for the Titans? They know who they are, they have Vrabel, they have Derrick Henry and their defensive coaching is under-appreciated. They also have done a good job under Vrabel maximizing situational opportunities in creative ways, including by incurring penalties to manipulate the clock and by drawing false-start penalties on opponents through pre-snap movement.

What’s next: Vegas set the Titans’ preseason win total at 9.5. The Titans are now on pace for 10.6 victories over the 17-game schedule, which would hit the “over” again. This is what we should expect in the absence of additional key injuries, or maybe even if those do occur. For a sense of how Vrabel connects with his team, check out the video former Titans linebacker Will Compton posted recently, showing Compton parodying Vrabel during a team meeting Vrabel attended (headphones recommended in the office).

• Cowboys go 4-1 without Dak Prescott: Dallas seemed doomed when the Cowboys learned after their 19-3 opening defeat to Tampa Bay that Prescott would miss a month or more with a thumb injury. They won their next four without him thanks to a defense that proved it could thrive without unusual turnover reliance. The 2021 Cowboys averaged 9.2 EPA per game from opponent turnovers, which led the league and ranked 38th out of 734 defenses since 2000. That figure has receded to 5.2 per game this season. Despite the drop, Dallas’ overall defensive EPA per game has improved slightly.

What’s next: This Dallas team should be more solid and less volatile than the 2021 version, which finished 12-5 and lost in the wild-card round. But if Philly wins the division, the Cowboys would be on the road for the playoffs, increasing the chances for another one-and-done playoffs.

Twelve teams over the previous five seasons fit Dallas’ EPA profile on defense/special teams. Five of those teams were also above average on offense. The list, in order from best to worst on offense, begins with the 2017 Vikings (13-3, reached NFC Championship Game) and 2020 Saints (12-4, lost in divisional round to eventual Super Bowl champ Tampa Bay). It also includes the 2021 Cowboys (12-5) and two other teams that lost in the wild-card round (2017 Rams and 2018 Texans, who were both 11-5).

The question is whether Prescott and the Cowboys’ weaponry will let Dallas push toward the upper range of those teams. There isn’t enough evidence yet to bet on that happening.

• Giants start 6-2 under new coach Brian Daboll: The Giants last met or exceeded their preseason Vegas win total in 2016. They now need only two victories over their final nine games to beat the 7.5 total set for them by oddsmakers entering this season. They have gotten here by making the NFL’s largest year-over-year EPA improvement on offense (11.1 per game), without major personnel upgrades, while the defense has been roughly the same by this measure.

Playing to the strengths of your personnel can sometimes feel more like the exception than the norm in the NFL. The Giants have done that expertly on offense, helped by Saquon Barkley’s return to dominant form. They have diminished their reliance on Daniel Jones’ passing, especially downfield, while accentuating his running ability.

What’s next: Some regression in the win column. The Giants still face the Eagles twice, plus the Vikings and Cowboys. They are 6-1 in one-score games. While that reflects well on them, it’s not a sustainable win rate in close games. No team since at least 2000 has prevailed in more one-score games than the Giants during the first eight games of a season. Only four others have won as many, including our next team on this list.

• Vikings start 7-1 under new coach Kevin O’Connell: The Vikings, like the Giants, were ripe for a cultural reset as they sought new coaching leadership. Both teams hired offensive-minded head coaches. Both head coaches embraced the quarterbacks they inherited when outsiders questioned those quarterbacks to varying degrees. Both head coaches hired experienced defensive coordinators (Wink Martindale for the Giants, Ed Donatell for the Vikings).

The Vikings are 6-0 in one-score games. Like the Giants, they rank among the five most-improved teams from last season in offensive and defensive EPA in fourth quarters of one-score games. The Vikings are also No. 1 in year-over-year improvement on special-teams EPA in those situations.

What’s next: Some regression, for sure, but with a four-game lead on Green Bay and Chicago in the NFC North, and with home victories over those teams already, the Vikings are in great shape to win the division. The Vikings have one of the NFL’s oldest starting lineups on defense with some solid veterans. Could injuries be a greater risk late in the season? For now, some of those veterans are producing when it matters most. Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith have combined for 24 fourth-quarter pressures (both rank in the NFL’s top five).

DB aside: both Sando and Peter King have said today that the Vikings have a 4-game lead.  Actually, 7-1 to 3-6 is a 4.5-game lead.