AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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As we swing into October, with four weeks done. It is time for our first If The Season Ended Today – for the NFC. We will have the AFC after the Raiders see if they can rule the roost there as the Cardinals do today in the NFC:
W-L Div Seed Conf Record
1 Arizona West 4-0 1 2-0
2 Dallas East 3-1 1 2-1
3 Tampa Bay South 3-1 1 2-1
4 Green Bay North 3-1 1 2-1
5 LA Rams WC1 3-1 2 2-1
6 Carolina WC2 3-1 2 1-1
7 Washington WC3 2-2 2 2-0
8 Chicago 2-2 2 1-1
9 Seattle 2-2 3 1-1
10 San Francisco 2-2 4 2-2
11 New Orleans 2-2 3 1-2
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Peter King’s readers have suggestions to avoid making delay of game calls as precise as other parts of the NFL:
First, my apology for not addressing the missed delay-of-game call in Baltimore-Detroit last week, when the clock expired, at least a full second ran, and no flag was thrown. It was a huge call that would have resulted in a 71-yard field-goal try instead of the 66-yarder Justin Tucker made. Bad miss by the officiating crew in Detroit, and there’s no excuse for me missing it. Woke up Monday morning and saw the outcry and said, “Well, I blew that one.”
As always, you can reach me at peterkingfmia@gmail.com, or on Twitter @peter_king.
About the missed delay-of-game call I. From Ken McManus of Kokomo, Ind.: “Regarding the antiquated technique of expecting back judges to watch the play clock and then shifting their glances to whether the ball has been snapped in time. Since NFL officials wear headsets now anyway, why not equip the back judge with a device that’s synchronized to the play clock and beeps 4-3-2-1 with one pitch of tone and zero with a different pitch? In baseball, first base umpires use two senses on ground balls — watching the foot of the batter on the bag and hearing the clap of the ball in the first baseman’s mitt. This is the 21st century. Surely the technology exists.”
About the missed delay-of-game call II. From Randy Schorfheide, of New Baden, Ill.: “With regard to the apparent missed delay-of-game call that preceded Justin Tucker’s game-winning and record-setting 66-yard field goal against the Lions, why can’t the NFL implement a system that when the play clock hits zero, red lights outlining the play clock box light up and a buzzer sounds?
Both are excellent ideas. Thanks for suggesting them. I know the NFL will say that such fixes would address only a few plays a year. What I would say is that one of said plays essentially determined the outcome of one of the NFL’s 272 regular-season games—Justin Tucker’s 66-yard field goal try would not have been good from 71 yards, which would have been the distance with a delay-of-game call—and could be the difference between the Ravens making the postseason and not. Who knows?
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NFC NORTH
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CHICAGO
Albert Breer of SI.com on how Matt Nagy did a better job of protecting QB JUSTIN FIELDS in his 2nd start:
The way the Bears offense played last week around Justin Fields did more than leave a mark on the coaches and players involved—it led to some legitimate soul searching.
“We as coaches listened,” Nagy said. “I, as a head coach, listened to the players, and I think it was good. I think for us, we wanted to come out of this thing whether we won or lost, we wanted to say on offense that we have an identity. That we created an identity somehow, whatever that is. It could be different every game. It could be the same every game, but I think that’s probably the biggest thing and whatever we decide each week that we think gives us the best way to win, then we at least know what our identity is heading in.
“Credit to our coaches and players for doing that this week, and there’s where we saw the difference.”
The difference, truth be told, was all over the place at Soldier Field on Sunday.
What was obvious showed up in the numbers. The Bears bounced back from last week’s 26-6 loss to the Browns with a 24–14 win over the Lions, and Fields went 11-of-19 for 209 yards and a pick after going 6-of-20 for 68 yards in Cleveland.
What’s less obvious was where that listening wound up getting the Bears.
For one thing, some of the feedback indicated putting Fields under center more often would help him get more comfortable, and get him going off play-action. So after the Bears were under center on just four of 45 snaps a week ago, they went under center on 28 of their 57 snaps Sunday (and a lot of the shotgun snaps happened situationally in the two-minute drill).
For another, Nagy felt a tug to do a better job, specifically, as the head coach. So he handed over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, in an effort to help the Bears play a more complementary game against the Lions.
“I was so involved just being able to understand and be there with the defense, when they were out on the field, and being there on the headset with [coordinator] Sean [Desai], listening to the calls that were going in, understanding situationally where we were,” Nagy said. “Early on, we had a fourth-and-1 on the first drive at midfield and we went for it and got it. And that’s something that we as a staff, Bill and I and Flip [QBs coach John DeFilippo], all of us, we get together and we always talk through situational football and we come up with stuff that we want to do at certain times.
“For me, big-picture, I’m able to give a heads-up there [to Desai].”
And while that didn’t result in Fields blowing up statistically, anyone watching the game could see a different player at work—one who looks far more comfortable than the young guy who started for the first time against Myles Garrett & Co.
For Nagy, that showed up quickly, and was obvious on Fields’s 64-yard connection with second-year star Darnell Mooney at the end of the first quarter. But it wasn’t so much the throw, as it was the process that Fields took to get there, from seeing the field pre-snap, to get the ball where he needed to post-snap.
“The biggest thing is he has an ability to, within the play, if he sees a certain coverage, make a throw and to make a decision to go to a certain player within that—meaning Mooney,” Nagy said. “They did a good job of holding their coverages, and I just think that he gave himself an opportunity within the progression of the play, he saw what they did post-snap and he was able to see that. And sometimes for rookie quarterbacks, it’s hard and you see the pre-snap that they give you and it’s more difficult.
“I just think that him adjusting and seeing that post-snap, the coverage change within the play, and being able to make that throw was probably what I’m getting to most.”
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GREEN BAY
Bob McGinn of the website “Go Long” on how Brett Favre got to Green Bay:
After showing promise in a scrimmage against the Seahawks in Portland, Ore., (Ron Wolf was on hand to watch), Brett Favre started two of the Falcons’ four exhibition games but failed to impress. His final exhibition statistics included a 41.1% completion mark and a 64.8 passer rating.
Less than a week before the Sept. 1 opener in Kansas City, Atlanta coach Jerry Glanville and June Jones, the assistant head coach on offense, suggested to personnel chief Ken Herock that the Falcons trade for quarterback Billy Joe Tolliver, who had been the Chargers’ second-round pick in 1989. On Aug. 28, Herock acquired him for a fifth-round choice.
When Herock met the team at Arrowhead Stadium for the opener on Sept. 1, he was stunned to see Tolliver lined up as No. 2 and Favre as No. 3.
“I asked what this was all about,” recalled Herock. “(He said), ‘Well, we just think Billy Joe’s ready to play.’ He hadn’t even practiced and he’s No. 2. After that, Brett was a total f—– that first year. A lot of the players would tell you the same thing.
“He got pissed off. He starts drinkin’, carryin’ on, runnin’ around. He gained a lot of weight. Out of shape. Late for meetings.
“I’d go out (scouting) several days and come back on Friday. All I’d hear on Friday was about ‘your boy.’ They’re telling me he can’t even run the scout team. I even looked at some practice tape and he stunk.
“Jerry and June just wouldn’t accept (Favre) and made a fool of him. Making a joke of him. They joked (that) the whole f—— plane would have to go down before I put you in.”
On Dec. 7, the day before a game against the Rams on the West Coast, the Falcons were conducting a walkthrough at empty Anaheim Stadium.
“I can still hear Jerry,” Herock said. “’Hey, ‘Mississippi,’ let’s see how strong your arm is.’ Brett’s on the sideline. He throws the ball and it hits the press box up there. Nobody else could come close. Jerry goes, ‘Mississippi,’ that’s about the only thing you’ll hit.’ They treated him like the clown of the team. What it amounted to is, I’m going to show Ken Herock that he doesn’t know what the f— he’s doing.”
Active for three games during the Falcons’ 10-6 season, their second-best record in what was a wretched 25-year history, Favre went 0 for 5 with a pair of picks in his two regular-season appearances.
“I tried everything with Brett,” Glanville told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in 2015. “He needed to grow up. I even flew in his parents to try to help me with him. But I couldn’t get him to function. Sooner or later, one guy can’t be bigger than the organization.
“In all my years of coaching, he is the only player that wasn’t in the team picture. Brett knew he screwed up when he missed that. I tried. I probably should have worked harder with him.”
In a conference call with Atlanta reporters in January 2003 before the Falcons-Packers NFC wild-card playoff game, Favre was asked about his forgettable first season. “I don’t have any beefs with anybody from Atlanta,” he said. “I can’t blame them for getting rid of me, to be totally honest with you. I’m sure I didn’t help my cause by trying to drink up Atlanta.”
After the Falcons were eliminated at Washington in the NFC divisional round, four men met to discuss Favre: Herock, Glanville, Jones and Taylor Smith, the executive president and son of the owner.
“Jerry says, ‘This guy can’t play,’” Herock remembered. “June says, ‘Well, he doesn’t fit what we’re doing in this (Red Gun) system.’ They’re telling me all these negative things. I didn’t see anything that I could defend him in any way. I saw what was going on in practice. I say to myself, ‘You could be wrong.’ So I conceded when they said this guy’s gotta go.
“I said, ‘OK, I’ll see what I can do. I’ll try to trade him. I’m still saying this guy can be a great player.’ I wanted it known that if he goes on to become successful you two guys f—– up. Not me.’”
When Herock put the word out in NFL front-office circles that Favre was available, he said the only team that expressed interest was Green Bay.
In November, the Packers fired Tom Braatz as executive vice president of football operations and, just seven days later, hired Wolf to be general manager with total authority over all football decisions. Green Bay’s first game under Wolf was in Atlanta on Dec. 1, four days after he signed a five-year contract with annual compensation of about $400,000.
Wolf and Herock had worked together with the Raiders and Buccaneers. In the Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium press box long before kickoff, Herock offered the hint that Favre might be on the trading block in the new year.
“At that very moment, I just knew I would do whatever it took to bring Favre to Green Bay,” Wolf wrote in his 1998 book, “The Packer Way.” “The coaches were lukewarm about trading for him but I wasn’t swayed.”
The two old friends bargained back and forth on what the compensation for Favre should be. Eventually, they agreed on a first-round draft choice. The Packers kept their first of two first-round draft choices for 1992; that was No. 5, which was used to select cornerback Terrell Buckley. The Falcons received the No. 17 selection, which had been obtained by Braatz in a draft-day deal the previous April. Ultimately, they traded No. 17 to Dallas for No. 19, which they used to choose running back Tony Smith.
Herock grew up outside Pittsburgh. He was 14 in 1955 when the Steelers released quarterback Johnny Unitas, their ninth-round draft choice that year, late in training camp. Within a few years Unitas was in the midst of his all-time career with the Baltimore Colts.
“Johnny Unitas was my worst nightmare,” said Herock. “I didn’t ever want Johnny Unitas to happen to me, and it did. I gave up on Brett Favre.”
With a trade agreement in place but nothing official, Wolf appeared before the Packers’ seven-man executive committee to explain the trade. Bob Harlan, the team’s second-year president who hired Wolf, accompanied him.
“I told them he was going to wear No. 4 and be like Lou Gehrig, who wore that number for the Yankees,” Wolf remembered. “They listened. They had no idea who I was talking about. I’m talking about a guy who can’t even get in the team picture. I’m sure after I left they raked Harlan over the coals. ‘Who the hell did you hire here? Some nut from New York?’
“I put my whole career on the line. I gave a No. 1 for him.”
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
Albert Breer of SI.com on the merger of run and pass in the scary 2021 Dallas offense:
Zeke Elliott’s not done yet, and neither is the Dallas run game. It’s been so easy to doubt the Cowboys the last few years, because of the disappointments—whether it’s the injury-marred years, or crushing playoff losses on the Dez Bryant (non-)catch and Aaron Rodgers–to–Jared Cook—and the fact that America’s Team hasn’t made it to even the conference title round in a quarter-century. So if you still have your doubts … understood. And now that I have that preamble out of the way, here’s something I find interesting…
Week 1: 391 yards passing, 60 yards rushing
Week 2: 221 yards passing, 198 yards rushing
Week 3: 220 yards passing, 160 yards rushing.
Week 4: 188 yards passing, 245 yards rushing.
“Skill-wise? Definitely the best offense I’ve been a part of,” two-time rushing champion Ezekiel Elliott told me postgame. “We’ve been hearing that the past two years. Last year, we were so skilled, but we didn’t go and put that on the field. So I mean this year, we’re healthy and we all got better. I think we’re deep, and it puts a lot of stress on defenses because honestly, you don’t know what we’re gonna do. You don’t know what our game plan’s gonna be. You don’t know if we’re gonna want to run the ball all day or maybe we might sling it all day. It’s definitely hard on those defenses.” Even, as the case was Sunday, a defense that was the best in football through September. The Cowboys went three-and-out and punted on the first series of the game, and that didn’t happen again thereafter. And for a team that had increasingly leaned to being more pass-heavy and Dak-centric early last year, and again in this year’s opener, it sure does feel like Mike McCarthy’s getting the Cowboys back to their roots behind a healthier (if not completely healthy) line. Which paid off when it mattered most Sunday. Carolina got to within a possession with 4:31 left, and Dallas got the ball at its own 19. From there: Tony Pollard ran for 18, Elliott went for eight, Elliott went for one, Prescott found Dalton Schultz for eight, Pollard went for five, and that was that. “It was just kind of our mentality of the team,” Elliott said. “We take pride in being a gritty group of guys. We knew that they knew we were gonna run the football, so for us to go out there and be able to just run it anyway that makes a statement in itself. Those big guys, they did a hell of a job today just winning the line of scrimmage and moving those guys out of there.” And remember, Dallas still has Prescott and CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper capable of what we saw on opening night. If the defense’s young stars (Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, et al.) keep ascending, the Cowboys could be more of a problem than anyone anticipated.
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Bills WR STEFON DIGGS is great, but his brother may be greater in 2021. Peter King:
Trevon Diggs, cornerback, Dallas. Has any defensive player had a better first four games than Diggs? The Cowboys cornerback picked off two Sam Darnold passes on Sunday, and has had an interception in each game this season. Diggs is the first player in Cowboys history to record an interception in each of the first four games, and he’s just 24 years old. His five interceptions on the season leads the league. Diggs did miss the fourth quarter with some back tightness, which McCarthy said was bothering him after taking a cleat to the back just before halftime.
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WASHINGTON
Peter King:
I think the week cannot end without acknowledging the day of Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke. A year ago, he was living in the home of his sister and brother-in-law in suburban Atlanta, without much hope that he’d ever get another legit chance to play in the NFL. On Sunday, in Atlanta, Heinicke threw two touchdowns passes in the final four minutes to lift WFT to a 34-30 win over the Falcons. And after the game, he had to rein in his emotions while talking to Laura Okmin on FOX in the on-field interview. “I’m trying not to get emotional,” said Heinicke, who was clearly emotional. “[My sister and brother-in-law] put up with a lot with me living at their home. For this to happen at the end here, and for them to be here to experience it, it’s really special.” Such a great moment for a guy who is carving out a starting niche in Washington.
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A federal probe involving a WFT trainer. JPFinley of NBC Sports Washington:
@JPFinlayNBCS
Breaking: Federal law enforcement conducted raid at Washington facility last week, team says head trainer Ryan Vermillion “placed on administrative leave due to an ongoing criminal investigation that is unrelated to the team.” Reporting with @granthpaulsen & @JulieCareyNBC
@JPFinlayNBCS
I can also report that Vermillion did not travel with the team to Atlanta this weekend.
And this:
@granthpaulsen
This investigation has been going on for some time. I talked to a player who was contacted by a federal agent in the spring with questions about Vermillion’s practices.
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
As a sage in the NFL office predicted when placing Tampa Bay at New England in Week 4, QB TOM BRADY became the NFL’s most prolific passer in terms of yards in Foxborough/Foxboro. Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:
Nearly 20 years to the day after his first NFL start — which ignited the New England Patriots’ dynasty and one of the greatest runs in professional sports history — Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady broke the league’s career passing yards record in his return to Gillette Stadium on Sunday night.
With 80,291 career passing yards heading into the game against the Patriots — his first trip back to Foxborough since his departure in 2020 — Brady needed 68 more to eclipse Drew Brees’ 80,358.
Brady broke the record with a 28-yard completion on a crossing route to wide receiver Mike Evans in the first quarter. It set up a 29-yard field goal by Ryan Succop for a 3-0 lead with 4 minutes, 49 seconds to go in the quarter. But unlike when Brees set the record with the New Orleans Saints on Oct. 8, 2018, at the Superdome, there was no lengthy stoppage of play — just an acknowledgement of the record, but prior to the game, the Patriots did play a video tribute to Brady and he was given a warm ovation by the crowd with chants of “Brady! Brady! Brady!”
In the end, Brady finished with 22 completions on 43 attempts, totaling 269 yards in the Buccaneers’ rain-soaked 19-17 victory.
“I just think it’s an amazing statistic in that so many people can share in it with me,” said Brady, who brought the football to his postgame news conference. “Quarterback doesn’t throw and catch. Quarterback can just throw it. It’s yards. Passing yards have to be caught, so I just hope that everybody who caught passes from me over the years just had a little smile on their face tonight knowing they contributed to a very cool record.
“There are some people who have kind of preceded it by name. Drew Brees, who I look up to, is a hell of a guy, great player. Peyton Manning — one of my all-time favorites — Brett Favre, Dan Marino, but obviously, my teammates who caught all these passes over the years mean an awful lot to me.”
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Peter King on the signing of CB RICHARD SHERMAN:
I think many of you wonder about Richard Sherman’s availability to come off the street and play Sunday night for Tampa Bay, his new team, after the incident with relatives in July, a wildly out-of-character series of threats, resisting arrest and alleged drunken abuse. The league has the matter under investigation, and in such cases, players are usually able to play while events are investigated and adjudicated. Pretty safe to say Sherman would not have signed with Tampa if Tom Brady wasn’t there—and didn’t appeal to him to join the team. “I always thought it would be really cool to play together if we ever got the opportunity,” said Sherman.
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
This from Andrew Siciliano:
@AndrewSiciliano
Last remaining unbeaten in the NFC has come from the West in each of the last four seasons.
Whatever else happens in the next 14 weeks, let it be noted that on October 3, Kliff Kingsbury’s team took over the NFC lead with a complete performance that included innovative, balanced offense, aggressive and sound defense as hallmarks of professional coaching. John Breech of CBSSports.com give Arizona an “A” for what they did to the Rams:
A Cardinals
Kyler Murray is firmly in the MVP conversation, or should be. He outdueled Matthew Stafford from the jump, and fortunately he also had Kliff Kingsbury behind him, with the Cardinals deploying their ground game with full force. And how about that defense, frustrating Stafford early with some unusually sticky coverage? It’s time to start calling them a true contender in the NFC, because only a few teams know how to keep up with them.
Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:
When Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury gets back to his Paradise Valley home in Arizona after Sunday’s 37-20 demolition of the Los Angeles Rams, he’s not going to sit back and bask in the glow of being the NFL’s only 4-0 team.
Instead, he’s going to sit on his (famous) couch and turn on Apple TV+’s hit show “Ted Lasso.”
It’ll be a distraction for about 45 minutes, an opportunity for Kingsbury, the well-known early riser and film watcher, to not think about football — well, the American kind, anyway — for just a bit before he starts preparing for next week’s game against the San Francisco 49ers.
But the show hits Kingsbury a little deeper than most.
“There’s some real parallels between Ted Lasso and myself,” Kingsbury said Sunday of the title character, played by Jason Sudeikis, who went from coaching college football in Kansas to coaching a Premier League club in England.
Kingsbury, who went from coaching college football to the NFL in 2019 after getting fired from Texas Tech after six seasons in late 2018, then laid them out.
There’s “the epic YouTube dance video.”
In the pilot of “Ted Lasso”, the fictional coach is celebrating by doing the “Running Man” dance — the same one Sudeikis made popular on “Saturday Night Live — that’s shown during a fictional segment on ESPN’s SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt.
Kingsbury went viral in 2014 when a clip of him doing the “Stanky Legg” during spring practice at Texas Tech made its way across the internet.
Then there were their opening news conferences.
“Y’all were at my press conference,” Kingsbury said. “It was essentially the same press conference as Ted Lasso had, when everybody was like, ‘Is this some kind of a joke?'”
Kingsbury was referring to a scene in the pilot when Lasso was introduced to the British media and was bombarded with questions about soccer and didn’t really have answers to them.
In reality, Kingsbury’s initial news conference wasn’t anything like Lasso’s, but there were questions publicly about his hiring and his ability to translate to the NFL after going 35-40 at Texas Tech.
And then there’s the personality.
“He’s weirdly positive all the time,” Kingsbury said, offering a glimpse into how he perceives himself away from the podium. “So, we’ll take it. But, yeah, I like the show.”
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This from Mike Sando of The Athletic:
An exec who projected before the season that Arizona would finish 10th in the NFC said his concerns for the Cardinals remain in play. He worried about Murray’s ability to stay healthy over the course of a season, which was a problem in 2020. This exec also worried about Kingsbury’s ability to sustain success. There’s nothing the Cardinals can do in October to prove themselves on these fronts. For now, they have improved to 4-9 against the NFC West under Kingsbury: 2-2 against Seattle, 1-3 against San Francisco and 1-4 against the Rams. They have been the best team in the division so far this season, the only team in the league to rank among the NFL’s top five in both offensive and defensive EPA at this early stage.
Arizona has also joined a select list of 10 teams since 2000 to reach at least 30 points in each of the first four games of a season. Also on that list: the 2000 Rams, 2002 Raiders, 2007 Patriots, 2007 Cowboys, 2011 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, 2018 Rams, 2020 Packers and 2020 Seahawks.
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SAN FRANCISCO
Diversity and equity mark San Francisco’s scoring in 2021. Matt Maiocco with the tweet:
@MaioccoNBCS
The 49ers have scored 12 touchdowns this season. Twelve different #49ers have scored touchdowns. That is Ross Dwelley’s first. And the 49ers take a lead.
As amplified by Peter King:
Let’s run ’em down:
1. WR Trent Sherfield, 5-yard reception (Week 1, first quarter, against Lions)
2. RB Elijah Mitchell, 38-yard run (Week 1, second quarter, against Lions)
3. RB JaMycal Hasty, 3-yard run (Week 1, second quarter, against Lions)
4. LB Dre Greenlaw, 39-yard interception return (Week 1, second quarter, against Lions)
5. WR Deebo Samuel, 79-yard reception (Week 1, third quarter, against Lions)
6. WR Jauan Jennings, 11-yard reception (Week 2, second quarter, against Eagles)
7. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 1-yard run (Week 2, fourth quarter, against Eagles)
8. QB Trey Lance, 1-yard run (Week 3, second quarter, against Packers)
9. WR Brandon Aiyuk, 8-yard reception (Week 3, third quarter, against Packers)
10. RB Trey Sermon, 1-yard run (Week 3, fourth quarter, against Packers)
11. FB Kyle Juszczyk, 12-yard reception (Week 3, fourth quarter, against Packers)
12. TE Ross Dwelley, 21-yard reception (Week 4, first quarter, against Seahawks)
Deebo Samuel’s 76-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter Sunday snapped the sharing streak. What a run.
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Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com on the opportunity for QB TREY LANCE presented by another injury to QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO:
Through a barrage of seemingly endless questions about his quarterback situation, San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has remained adamant that the plan was to ride with incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo while rookie Trey Lance develops.
But if the right calf injury Garoppolo suffered in Sunday’s 28-21 loss to the Seattle Seahawks causes him to miss games, Shanahan will have no choice.
“We’ve been playing with rookie running backs since the second play of the first game and we’ve got a rookie quarterback right now,” Shanahan said. “Hopefully, Jimmy is better, and not as bad as we think, but Trey is here for a reason. You want to give him time, you want him to be fully ready, but you don’t always have that luxury.”
Garoppolo said he was set to have an MRI on his right calf Monday morning. The Niners are also concerned about left tackle Trent Williams’ right shoulder and kicker Robbie Gould’s right groin, both of which will require further testing.
Williams departed the game in the fourth quarter on a cart and did not return. Gould’s groin issue happened during final warmups and he missed the game as punter Mitch Wishnowsky handled kicking and punting duties.
Garoppolo said he first felt the injury on the game’s opening series. He didn’t know who it was, but Garoppolo said it felt like someone stepped on his right calf. As the first half wore on, Garoppolo said the calf continued to tighten and he could feel the pain working its way down to his Achilles.
While Garoppolo doesn’t think it’s anything as serious as an Achilles tear, he did indicate it could cost him some time.
“It feels like just the calf right now,” Garoppolo said. “I’m hopeful it will just be a couple of weeks or something like that.”
Even if it is just a couple of weeks, that would mean Lance would make his first regular-season NFL start next week against the undefeated Arizona Cardinals on the road. Which means the Niners would have to make some changes to the game plan to cater more to Lance’s skill set and limited experience in the full offense.
It would also mean the Niners would have time to plan for Lance as the starter, something they didn’t have on Sunday. Garoppolo continued to play through the first half on the injured right calf, and it wasn’t until a minute or two before the third quarter began that he was ruled out.
That decision hit Garoppolo hard, especially considering his lengthy injury history and the presence of the highly drafted Lance.
“It’s just tough,” Garoppolo said. “I’ve been in this situation too many times and it’s getting real old.”
Garoppolo finished his day 14-of-23 for 165 yards with a touchdown but started 6-of-6 for 70 yards and a touchdown on the first drive. But Garoppolo said he could feel the calf affecting his throws as the half went on. He went 8-of-17 for 95 yards and an interception after the initial drive.
Lance’s first steady work with the starters got off to a rough start with a pair of three-and-outs and a couple of ugly incompletions. But he hit receiver Deebo Samuel for a 76-yard touchdown on his third series on a pass in which Samuel had 17.6 yards of separation at the time of the catch, the most for a receiver on a touchdown this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Lance seemed to settle in a bit from there. Trailing by two scores in the fourth quarter, Lance directed another scoring drive, hitting Samuel for another score, this time from 8 yards out. He finished 9-of-18 for 157 yards with the two scores for a passer rating of 117.1. He also rushed for 41 yards on seven attempts.
He said he felt like his first extended time came with some good and some bad.
“Missed some big ones, missed some easy ones, missed some checkdowns, just definitely a few plays that I want back,” Lance said. “I’m going to go back and watch it tonight and I think I’ll learn a lot from that.”
Shanahan offered a similar assessment of Lance’s performance with an eye toward the type of improvement that will be necessary if Garoppolo doesn’t play next week and Lance is indeed needed for his first start.
“He got thrown in not expecting to get in,” Shanahan said. “I thought he ran the ball well, hit some passes, obviously missed some passes, was in a tough situation there when we were down two scores. He did a good job of moving the chains a couple times with his legs. But it looked like a typical first game.”
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
NextGenStats critiques Sean McVay as too conservative:
Sean McVay and Co. miss opportunities on fourth down
McVay has a reputation for being one of the best play callers in the NFL, but the Rams have tended to be among the more conservative teams on fourth down. In the loss to division-rival Arizona, McVay chose to either punt or kick a field goal when the numbers said to go for it on his first four fourth-down situations — with the Rams losing a combined 11.3 percentage points in expected win probability across those four decisions. McVay’s two most costly calls:
SECOND QUARTER: With 3:25 remaining and the Rams (trailing 21-10) facing fourth-and-goal from the Cardinals’ 4-yard line, Los Angeles’ Matt Gay makes a 22-yard field goal to cut the deficit to 8.
This was McVay’s most suboptimal decision of the game, costing the Rams 4 percentage points in win probability value. The made field goal actually decreased the Rams’ win probability from 28 percent to 25 percent. If they’d converted and scored a touchdown? The team would have had a roughly 39 percent chance to win. This was ultimately the inflection point in the contest, as Los Angeles never had a greater than 30 percent chance to win the rest of the way, according to the NGS win-probability model.
THIRD QUARTER: With 6:28 remaining and the Rams (trailing 27-13) facing a fourth-and-4 from the Cardinals’ 27-yard line, Gay misses a 46-yard field-goal attempt wide right.
Once again, McVay elected to kick a field goal on fourth-and-4, but this time, the degree of difficulty was much greater (with a 67 percent make probability). Even if Gay had made the field goal, though, the decision to keep a two-possession game to two possessions is tough to justify. The NGS Decision Guide recommended going for it by 3.4 percent. Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense would have had a 48 percent chance of converting on fourth-and-4.
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SEATTLE
Congratulations to QB RUSSELL WILSON. The Athletic:
Russell Wilson became the fastest quarterback in NFL history to 100 wins on Sunday, throwing two touchdowns and running for another as the Seattle Seahawks pulled away from Trey Lance and the San Francisco 49ers for a 28-21 victory. Both teams sit at 2-2 in the NFC West, where the Cardinals lead at 4-0 after beating the Rams (3-1) on Sunday.
With the win, Wilson reached 100 wins in the fourth game of his 10th season, besting Hall of Famer Peyton Manning, who reached the century mark in the 10th game of his 10th season.
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AFC WEST
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KANSAS CITY
Andy Reid is not the second coach to win 100 games with two teams, as an erroneous story the DB linked to said on Friday. With the win over the Eagles, he is the first. Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com:
Andy Reid didn’t want to get emotional returning to Philadelphia for the first time in years, even though the Kansas City Chiefs head coach made NFL history by beating his former team. With the Chiefs’ 42-30 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid won his 100th game with Kansas City (including postseason) — becoming the first head coach in NFL history to win 100 games with two different franchises.
Reid is the winningest head coach in Eagles history, finishing his 14-year tenure with Philadelphia with a 140-102-1 record (including postseason). He won six NFC East championships, made nine postseason appearances, reached five conference title games, and earned one Super Bowl appearance with Philadelphia. Reid went 130-93-1 in the regular season with the Eagles and 10-9 in the postseason.
The former Eagles head coach has been even better with the Chiefs. In his ninth season with the Chiefs, Reid has compiled a 100-45 record (including postseason), winning five AFC West titles, reaching the postseason seven times and the conference championship game three times, winning Super Bowl LIV and making the Super Bowl twice in his tenure with Kansas City. Reid is 93-39 as the Chiefs head coach in the regular season and 7-6 in the postseason.
Reid has 17 postseason victories in his career, tied with Joe Gibbs for fourth-most in NFL history. He trails only Bill Belichick (31), Tom Landry (20) and Don Shula (19) in career playoff victories. Reid has 240 career combined victories in the regular season and postseason, which is the fifth-most in NFL history. Only Shula (347), George Halas (324), Belichick (311) and Landry (270) are ahead of Reid.
Reid’s 223 career regular season wins are three behind Curly Lambeau (226) for fifth on the all-time list. he’s seven wins away from winning 100 regular season games with two different franchises, which would also be a first in NFL history.
Since only 10 coaches have won 200 games (including postseason), there aren’t really any other coaches who are close to Reid’s feat.
Mike Holmgren, well down on the all-time wins list with 174, won 90 with Seattle and 84 with Green Bay. He may be the only coach with 80+ with two teams.
Tom Coughlin is 110 Giants, 72 JAX.
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AFC NORTH
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BALTIMORE
The Ravens kept a streak alive, with a very late rush. Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:
The Baltimore Ravens might have made NFL history in how they went about matching NFL history.
With three seconds left in Sunday’s game against the Broncos, the Ravens decided not to take a knee to run out the clock and instead chose to tie a 44-year-old NFL rushing record. Up 23-7, coach John Harbaugh said it was “100 percent my call” for quarterback Lamar Jackson to run 5 yards, which allowed Baltimore to record its 43rd straight game of 100 yards rushing.
“It’s one of those things that’s meaningful,” Harbaugh said. “It’s a very, very tough record to accomplish. It’s a long-term record. So, I’m not going to say it’s more important than winning the game, for sure. It’s certainly not. But, as a head coach, I think you do that for your players and you do that for your coaches, and that’s something they’ll have for the rest of their lives.”
The Elias Sports Bureau could not confirm the last time in the past 25 years that a team gained yards on a play that began in the final five seconds while leading by at least 10 points. Elias did find a play in 1992, when Spencer Tillman ran for 1 yard with two seconds left when his Houston Oilers led the San Diego Chargers 27-0.
On Sunday, it looked like the Ravens would fall one game short of tying the Pittsburgh Steelers, who produced 43 consecutive 100-yard games from 1974 to 1977 behind running back Franco Harris. But Baltimore cornerback Anthony Averett intercepted Broncos quarterback Drew Lock in the end zone, giving the Ravens one last play.
Baltimore, which had 97 yards rushing, then had Jackson run a quarterback keeper to the left side to extend the streak.
Jackson said he didn’t know what Harbaugh was thinking because the victory was sealed at that point.
“I’m not going to lie. I ain’t really care about the record,” Jackson said. “I wasn’t thinking about that. I was thinking about winning the game.”
The Broncos were not asked about the Ravens’ decision on that final play.
The Ravens’ streak of 100-yard rushing games dates to Jackson’s first game as their starting quarterback on Nov. 18, 2018. The next longest active 100-yard streak belongs to the Cleveland Browns at five games.
“Whenever you’re in the record books, it’s important,” Ravens wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown said. “So, it’s great to get that done.”
For what it is worth, the DB has no problem with it. A streak like that is hard to build, and it would be hard to let it end when it was in your grasp.
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CLEVELAND
After a slow start, the Browns defense asserted itself on Sunday. Jason LaCanfora ofCBSSports.com:
The Browns defense got its mojo going last week in carving up the Chicago offensive line and it carried over to Week 4. Command performance from that unit, hitting Kirk Cousins eight times, frustrating him, limiting the deep shots with that reconstructed secondary and basically shutting down the Vikings after their early scoring drive. Minnesota went up 7-0 on a 14-play, 80-yard march on its first possession and proceeded to run 41 plays for just 175 yards, a ridiculous 4.27 yards per play. Cleveland is for real and this defense is a different beast than any in those parts for a long, long time.
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AFC SOUTH
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JACKSONVILLE
Urban Meyer’s time at Jacksonville got rockier over the weekend, even with the mini-break from the Thursday night game. Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com with a typo on the location of the game in Cincinnati:
Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer said Monday he apologized to his team, his family and owner Shad Khan after a viral video surfaced over the weekend that showed a young woman dancing close to his lap.
Meyer said he went to Columbus, Ohio, after the Jaguars’ loss at Tennessee last Thursday night to visit with his grandchildren and went to his restaurant — Urban Meyer’s Pint House — on Friday night. He said there was an event happening there and people asked to take photos with him. He said people tried to get him out onto the dance floor and he said he should have left and not allowed the young woman to dance closely in front of him.
“Just stupid,” said Meyer, 57. “Should not have myself in that kind of position.”
The nine-second video showing Meyer sitting at the bar in an Ohio State pullover while the young woman danced close to his lap was posted to social media on Saturday night and quickly went viral.
“I’ve always been so defensive of [my players],” he said. “I remember when Trevor [Lawrence] told me he was going to go to Vegas for his bachelor party. I was just like, ‘My gosh, man, be careful and surround yourself because I’ve seen this happen.’
“The team, I spoke to a bunch of leaders one-on-one, spoke to all the players. They’re good. They’re focused on Tennessee. I apologized again for being a distraction. A coach should not be a distraction.”
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TENNESSEE
Mike Sando crunches some numbers on RB DERRICK HENRY who seems to be the equivalent of TOM BRADY for running backs:
The odds caught up to the Titans during a 27-24 overtime defeat to the New York Jets on Sunday, but one component remains stable for Tennessee, week after week: Derrick Henry. The Titans’ 2,027-yard rusher from last season is on pace to rush for 2,168 yards over the current expanded 17-game season. With 157 yards against the Jets, Henry has 510 in four games for a 127.5-yard average per game. That’s up from 126.7 yards per game last season.
Bigger picture, Henry is showing no signs that 2021 will be the season his production begins to decline.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
How much did Buffalo dominate the Texans?
For the game, the Texans offense, being led by rookie quarterback Davis Mills, finished with 109 yards of total offense and just six first downs. For sake of comparison, the Bills finished with 450 total yards and 26 first downs.
Some other notes from the Buffalo News:
It was the most lopsided loss in the history of the Texans franchise and gives the Bills two shutouts already this season, only the third season in franchise history with multiple shutouts. The Bills also had two in 1982 and 1990.
The Bills scored 40-plus points in consecutive games for the second time in franchise history. The previous time was in Weeks 8 and 9 in 1990 when the Bills beat Cleveland, 42-0, and then Phoenix, 45-14.
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MIAMI
The Dolphins had been making steady progress under Coach Brian Flores, until 2021. Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com:
Brian Flores has some big problems on his hands. And no Tua Tagovailoa to blame it all on.
There is no boogeyman. No excuses. And myriad reasons for concern.
The Dolphins managed to squeak one out in Foxborough in Week 1, but have dropped three straight and seem to be regressing by the week. It’s beginning to look like yet another year of a severe disconnect between the coaching staff and front office, with the constant churn of discarding key free agents and draft picks a year after landing them leading to a fairly brutal on-field product right now, and one of the toughest watches in the NFL. Their three first-round selections from 2020 are providing no dividends right now — and major questions can be asked about whether they will ascend to the heights expected of such picks — and you have to wonder if Flores’ notoriously fickle relationships with his offensive coordinators will lead to further upheaval in that regard.
This just is not a crisp operation in any way, shape or form, and while all of the money they have thrown at the secondary has largely been rewarded, one position group does not a football team make. The dueling offensive coordinators — an experiment that was always too cute by half — is failing miserably (strengths in numbers does not apply here). It made for an ugly Sunday afternoon in Miami as the winless Colts grabbed their first win at the Dolphins’ expense.
Miami had 77 net yards in the first half. Backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, yet another Dolphins player with ties to the Patriots organization that produced both Flores and GM Chris Grier, was 8 of 15 for 57 yards, continuing a trend of truly staggering yards/attempt. And at 14-3, early in the third quarterback, they felt like a blowout and an insurmountable deficit. They didn’t get into the red zone until 12 minutes remained in the game, down 20-3.
Miami entered Week 4 with a minus-37 scoring differential — only Atlanta, Jacksonville and the Jets were worse — and the Dolphins had a minus-four touchdown differential. Only two teams, the Jets and Bears, scored fewer than Miami’s 45 points through three weeks. None of those trends were altered on Sunday. It just got worse. The Dolphins required garbage time to crack 200 yards of offense (203) and were a miserable 3-for-11 on third down in the 27-17 defeat that felt like more than that.
You can already start fretting about Miami’s big 2021 offseason acquisitions, with this franchise becoming synonymous with giving away or kicking out those types of players a year after bringing them in (which is never a good look). Oft-injured Will Fuller, who was suspended for the start of the season, has barely played and has made no impact, with one catch for 6 yards Sunday and 26 yards on the season. Miami moved around the draft board (some would say somewhat aimlessly) to come away with receiver Jaylen Waddle with their first pick; he had three grabs for 33 yards Sunday and 25 grabs for 200 yards on the year (8 yards per catch!).
The offensive line has been a massive problem for a long time, and this unit looks as bad as many Miami has run out there in recent years (their signing of lineman Matt Skura, only to cut him a few months later, kinda sums up the way this team operates). Tight end Mike Gesicki looked on the precipice of a major breakout season, but has been among the many just not seeing the ball. They gave DeVante Parker a contract extension before last season and, yeah, he and Gesicki caught TDs Sunday but there have been long stretches in all of these games where they have been invisible.
Maybe Tua’s return can spark something. But I doubt it. It’s definitely time to start questioning where this franchise is, with the 10 wins from a year ago looking like a mirage and only its weak 2021 schedule working in its advantage.
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NEW ENGLAND
After it was all over, Bill Belichick walked to the Tampa Bay locker room and spent 20 minutes sequestered privately with QB TOM BRADY. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:
Capping off what Tom Brady described as a “very emotional week,” the Buccaneers quarterback received a visit in the locker room from New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick after Tampa Bay’s 19-17 win at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night.
Belichick was seen walking into the visitors locker room, and it wasn’t until about 20 minutes later that he exited, soon followed by Brady. A source said Belichick had reached out to arrange the meeting with Brady leading into the game.
“We’ve had a personal relationship for 20-plus years. He drafted me here. We had a lot of personal conversations that should remain that way. They’re very private,” Brady said.
“I would say, so much is made of our relationship. … Nothing is really accurate that I ever see. It definitely doesn’t come from my personal feelings or beliefs.”
The private meeting with Belichick — which came after they shared an embrace on the field — was one of the final parts of Brady’s highly anticipated homecoming on a rainy night in front of a raucous crowd. Patriots kicker Nick Folk’s 56-yard field goal attempt that would have given the Patriots the lead with 59 seconds remaining hit the left upright.
“I feel good that we won,” Brady said. “It was just some emotional moments thinking about coming up here and playing. I know why it’s tough to come in here and win a game all these years. This team does a great job. They make you earn it. It’s a tough football environment. The crowd is into it. I’m just really happy we got a win.”
Following his team’s victory, Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians said he was “very frustrated” that “everybody wanted to make [Buccaneers-Patriots] about Brady and Belichick.”
“This is a team sport. … I don’t think Bill played a snap,” Arians said. “He had 22 guys out there playing their ass off, and I knew they would. And we had 22 guys out there playing their asses off. One of ’em just happened to be named Brady.”
Before he led the Buccaneers onto the field, the Patriots honored Brady with a one-minute video of his top highlights, which sparked the drenched crowd to chant his name in appreciation, with cheers of “Brady! Brady! Brady!” filling the stadium.
Brady first arrived on the field for warm-ups shortly before 7:30 p.m., and the fans who got to their seats early — many in Brady jerseys — erupted in what seemed like a Super Bowl-type atmosphere. Brady jogged the full length of the field, skipped and pumped his right fist as he made it to the opposite end.
“It was awesome,” Brady said. “I tried not to predict what was going to happen and how I would feel. Had a few emotional moments this week just thinking about the people that have really meant so much to me in my life and that are a part of this community. Just very grateful for an amazing time here. Like I said, my football journey took me somewhere else, but I’m really enjoying that, and great to get a win.”
That was something Brady did often over his tenure with the Patriots. But this time, his jog was in the opposite direction, starting at the visitors tunnel.
“I couldn’t run through the normal tunnel, so, yeah, just happened to be the opposite way. Just a lot of emotions,” Brady said. “These guys are like my brothers. There are two groups of people: all my Bucs teammates that I love and I’m going to battle with every week; and then there is another group of guys that I see, and those are my friends that I been with for a long time … these are the people that I’ve shared my life with. Very grateful for everything they’ve kind of contributed to my life. Very blessed.”
Brady then gave Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels an embrace as he jogged to the Buccaneers’ side of the field, the crowd chanting “Brady! Brady!” as he began to warm up.
Soon after, rookie Patriots quarterback Mac Jones took the field to a thunderous ovation — a most unusual scene in which the signal-callers for both teams were cheered.
Brady was impressed with Jones, the first-round pick from Alabama whom he met briefly on the field after the game. In one stretch, Jones completed 19 straight passes, the longest streak by a rookie over the past 40 seasons, according to Elias Sports Bureau research.
“He did a great job. I think that offense does a great job. Josh really dialed up some good plays too. They kind of hit everything,” Brady said. “But in the end, it always comes down to a couple plays. Happy we made them.”
When Brady played for the Patriots, he would often visit the field for road games shortly after arriving on the team bus. But Brady didn’t do that Sunday after arriving around 5 p.m., instead going straight to the visitors locker room and staying there until warm-ups.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft met with Brady about three hours before kickoff in the tunnel outside the Buccaneers locker room. The two shared an embrace and spoke for a couple of minutes.
Seth Wickersham of ESPN.com tries to get to the bottom of the meeting (and, for now, fails):
Everyone flooded the field. Cameras flocked to Brady, as he hugged former teammates and smiled. Would this be it? Would Belichick and Brady finally meet? You had the feeling Belichick won the battle against Brady, holding him to only 22 completions in 43 attempts and 6.25 yards per pass, only one touchdown in four red zone trips, even though he lost the game.
But Brady won his battles too: He was sacked only once, and he didn’t turn the ball over. Arians later said that he was frustrated that the game seemed to only be about Brady and Belichick, when it was about two teams playing. Finally, and quickly, Belichick rolled up to Brady. The hug lasted a millisecond, and he said that they’d catch up after the game.
Belichick was gone, leader of an 8-12 team since Brady left, and Brady stood on the field, then jogged off, past all kinds of fans wearing all kinds of versions of Tom Brady jerseys, and pointed his finger to the sky before disappearing into his old home. He handed the game ball to Guerrero. Belichick gave a news conference that lasted a few minutes, comfortable in the awkward silences and brief answers.
Then he surprised almost everyone except Brady: He entered the visitors locker room, and for just over 20 minutes, he and Brady spoke. They walked out together. This was a meeting not for the world; it was for two men. What was said, in Brady’s words, was personal. He seemed relieved.
And out of that surprising meeting came this surprising disclosure. Before he left the stadium — a home that while he played for the Patriots he said he hoped he’d retire playing in — Brady said, maybe if the chance to sign a one-day deal ever came up, he might retire with the same team that drafted him: “There could be an opportunity to come back here.”
Albert Breer of SI.com was a witness of sorts:
At 12:08 a.m. ET, Belichick, out of the shower and dressed in faded jeans and a tucked-in button-up shirt, made his way down the Gillette Stadium tunnel, head down and trying to keep a low profile (which, of course, was impossible) as he made a hard left into the Bucs’ locker room.
For those of us who caught it, even as it was obvious what was happening, the whole thing looked odd—the opposing coach just cavalierly waltzing into the opposing team’s locker room postgame. But there Belichick was, seeking out his old quarterback. When he got in there, I’m told, he and Brady retreated behind a wall together, with most of the Bucs team already on the bus and ready to go to the airport.
At 12:32 a.m. ET, Belichick emerged from the locker room, and Brady came out 30 seconds behind him, and headed across the hall to his press conference.
So whatever happened behind that wall stayed behind that wall. But most of the rest of this night was very, very public—with New England given the chance, and very clearly taking the chance, to say thank you to Brady for his 20 years in a Patriots uniform, as reluctant as Brady might’ve been to bask in it, given his place quarterbacking a team that was coming off a lopsided loss seven days earlier.
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Even though the kick nearly made it – asking NICK FOLK to hit from 56 in a pouring rain rather than go for a manageable 4th down seemed like a funny call. NextGenStats agreed.
Which teams got it right on fourth-down and 2-point conversion calls in Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season — and which teams got it wrong? The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses the Next Gen Stats Decision Guide powered by AWS to break down the numbers behind the decisions that shaped the game.
On a rainy night in Foxborough, highlighted by Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium, Belichick made two suboptimal fourth-down decisions that resulted in the loss of 15.4 percentage points in expected win probability.
FOURTH QUARTER: With 0:59 remaining and the Patriots (trailing 19-17) facing a fourth-and-4 from the Buccaneers’ 38-yard line, New England’s Nick Folk attempts a 56-yard field goal. The ball hits the left upright, and the kick is no good.
This decision by Belichick — which cost the Patriots 10.3 percentage points in win-probability value — is one of the more complex calls we’ve seen this season, with so many different factors influencing the final numbers. Let’s break down each of the components:
Conversion probability:
Folk had a 45.1 percent chance of making a 56-yard field goal, according to our field-goal probability model, which takes into account real-time weather and humidity data.
If the Patriots had gone for it — with 4.4 yards to go, as measured by ball-tracking data — their chances of converting were 52.3 percent.
Win probability:
If Folk had made the kick, the Patriots’ win probability would have been 52.3 percent — given that Brady and the Bucs would have gotten the ball back with just under one minute left, with two timeouts and trailing only 2 points, this was almost a 50-50 proposition for the home team.
If Mac Jones and the offense had converted for a first down, their win probability would have jumped to 65.3 percent, with Folk presumably having the chance to end the game with a more probable field goal, with less time on the clock for Brady and Co.
Missing the field goal or failing to convert would mean a loss, as we saw.
By combining the likelihood of each outcome with its effect on the outcome of the game, we can calculate the expected win probability of each decision. Before the play, the value of kicking a field goal was 24.3 percent. The value of going for it was 34.7 percent. The difference — 10.3 percent in favor of going for it — represents the magnitude of the recommendation.
SECOND QUARTER: With 2:00 remaining and the Patriots (leading 7-3) facing a fourth-and-2 from the Buccaneers’ 44-yard line, Belichick opts to take a delay-of-game penalty, setting up a punt.
Belichick is known for his mastery of the middle eight, i.e., the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter. On Sunday night, however, Belichick and the numbers were not aligned — and it cost the Patriots.
According to the NGS model, going for it was the optimal decision by 5.1 percent. Jones and the offense would have had a 59.7 percent chance of converting if they’d gone for it, and they would have had a better than 60 percent chance of winning the game if they’d converted. Instead of putting themselves in position to go up by multiple scores, the Patriots punted it away, and we know what happened next: Brady led an eight-play, 69-yard drive, resulting in a 44-yard field goal by Ryan Succop with just 13 seconds left on the clock. And the Buccaneers got the ball to start the second half.
Interesting that NextGenStats had Folk at 45% to make the FG.
Folk, an established kicker with a track record, is 27-44 on FG attempts of 50-59 for 61%. Presumably, all these numbers are after the 56-yard miss.
If you go to 53+ yards, he is 8-16 or 50%
If you go to 55+ yards, he is 3-7.
If you go to 56+ yards, he is 1-5.
And that one make was from 56.
All these numbers in all kinds of weather conditions, including indoors. He has been kicking well lately, but we would think his chances of making the kick were more like 30%, maybe less.
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NEW YORK JETS
A coming out party for Jets QB ZACH WILSON put the Titans down for the count in overtime. Rich Cimini of ESPN.com:
In the euphoric moments after their first victory as the New York Jets’ coach-quarterback tandem, Robert Saleh posed a question to rookie Zach Wilson.
“You having fun yet?” he asked.
The 27-24 overtime win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at MetLife Stadium was indeed fun, Wilson acknowledged later, adding, “It was an interesting fun, though — a roller-coaster game, for sure.”
That’s because of Wilson, who delivered spectacular, game-changing plays but also made a couple of mistakes that could’ve cost the Jets their first win.
Wilson passed for 297 yards and two touchdowns, both in the fourth quarter, injecting life into an offense that managed only 20 points in the first three games. The Jets faced deficits of 9-0 and, early in the fourth quarter, 17-10. They were staring at an 0-4 start for the third straight year.
Then Wilson, drafted second overall, displayed the playmaking ability that made the Jets fall in love with him. He made three schoolyard-type plays that turned nothing into something big.
“I think he was awesome,” Saleh said.
Displaying elusiveness and arm strength, Wilson scrambled outside the pocket and threw a 54-yard completion to wide receiver Keelan Cole to set up a go-ahead field goal with 19 seconds left in the third quarter — the Jets’ first lead of the season. Wilson ran 26 yards to his right, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and threw at full speed.
On the next possession, Wilson fumbled a snap, scooped it up and, on his back foot, fired a 29-yard completion to wide receiver Jamison Crowder. Moments later, he threw a 3-yard touchdown to Crowder to make it 17-17.
Then came the biggest play of the game, a 53-yard touchdown to wide receiver Corey Davis. On a naked bootleg to his right, with no one open underneath, Wilson noticed the Titans had no deep safety. He motioned to Davis to go deep.
He went deep, and Wilson found him in the end zone to give the Jets a 24-17 lead.
“That’s like backyard ball,” said Davis, who made four catches for 111 yards against his former team.
Recalling his thoughts as he watched the off-script play unfold, Saleh said, “No, no, no, no. Oh, my god.”
Wilson’s improvisational attempts got him into trouble in the first three games, as he threw seven interceptions and was sacked 15 times. Saleh said he wanted Wilson to play a “boring” style, making safe passes.
Saleh smiled when told that Wilson’s game was hardly boring.
“He was aggressive when he needed to be and he was boring when he needed to be, believe it or not,” Saleh said.
Despite outstanding production in the fourth quarter and overtime (146 passing yards and two touchdowns), Wilson failed to capitalize on chances that would’ve ended the game earlier. He missed an open Davis on a third-and-10 that would’ve iced the game with 2:23 left in the fourth quarter. In overtime, after hitting two third-down passes and leading the offense to the Titans’ 9-yard line, he short-armed a pass to open tight end Ryan Griffin. Then, on a third down from the 1, he made a bad decision.
With no one open, Wilson tried to run it in and he was swallowed up by tacklers. If he had thrown it away, the Jets would’ve gone for a game-winning touchdown on fourth down from the 1, Saleh said later. Wilson lost 3 yards, forcing them to settle for Matt Ammendola’s 22-yard field goal. The Titans nearly matched that to force a tie, but Randy Bullock’s 49-yard attempt was wide left.
“I had a couple of chances to end it and I have to take advantage of those opportunities,” Wilson said. “I’m excited, but at the same time, I’m beating myself up.”
His teammates lauded his resilience, how he rallied the team after a sluggish start that included an interception. The home fans were booing in the first half, as the Jets struggled to do anything.
“He’s a fighter, I can tell you that,” said linebacker C.J. Mosley, who had one of seven sacks.
The Jets, too, showed some toughness, battling back from adversity on both sides of the ball. They were led by their 22-year-old quarterback.
“You’ve got to understand you’re in this position for a reason and there’s going to be growing pains, but you’ve got to do what you’ve done your whole life,” said Wilson, explaining his flair for dramatic plays. “You’ve got to turn the noise off and make it like practice.”
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THIS AND THAT
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BROADCAST NEWS
This from FOX numbers cruncher Michael Mulvihill:
@mulvihill79
Sep 30 78% of all Fox viewing in the month of September has been viewing of football. #FoxIsFootball
That would include some CFB as well.
– – –
Peter King takes note of the NFL’s scheduling brilliance:
I think this is another example of how the people who put the NFL schedule together, led by Howard Katz, do not miss a trick. In the first four weeks of the season, the number one crew of each partner network got to see the new stadium jewel in Los Angeles, SoFi Stadium. Week 1: NBC had Bears-Rams on Sunday night. Week 2: CBS had Cowboys-Chargers as the national doubleheader game. Week 3: FOX had Bucs-Rams as the national doubleheader game. Week 4: ESPN has Raiders-Chargers tonight on “Monday Night Football.” That’s smart programming, four straight weeks of a national audience seeing what the NFL wants you to see—football’s back in Los Angeles in the newest jewel of a stadium.
We would add that there were two games at SoFi Stadium this week so five TV crews have seen the venue. And it is marvelous.
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