THE DAILY BRIEFING
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Peter King:
The Giants and Daniel Jones are 2-0. The Bengals and Joe Burrow are 0-2. Just like we thought.
Nervous: Jacoby Brissett, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Russell Wilson, Ron Rivera.
Very nervous: Matt Rhule, Frank Reich, Jameis Winston, Bengals offensive line.
Rivera?
– – –
A message to Walt Anderson from King (and Mike Pereira), this after two similar calls that reviewer-in-chief Anderson went different ways on:
The NFL has lost its way on replay. As former vice president of officiating Mike Pereira, now a FOX rules analyst, told me: “We’ve been micromanaging replay for years, and this is what’s resulted. We’re reviewing and reversing plays where half the viewers would reverse and half wouldn’t. We all knew that technology improved and clarity of the video improved that we would overuse the system. So I’m not a fan of where we are on replay.”
Nor am I. I still favor replay, used correctly, because we don’t want games decided on egregiously incorrect calls. The league needs to re-familiarize itself—Anderson in particular—with the definition of clear, obvious and indisputable, before it’s too late and owners and coaches get fed up with a system that all too often is capricious.
– – –
Jonathan Jones of CBSSport.com says 20% of the games have been won by teams that had less than a 10% win probability at a late point in the game:
I have a bone to pick with analytics. *Inhales deeply*
I believe in analytics. I like analytics. I think analytics get a bad rap among many in the football community. After all, everyone uses analytics to some degree or another, even if they don’t like the term “analytics.”
I struggle with the win probability metric, and I always have.
Prior to the Monday night doubleheader, there have been just 30 regular-season games played so far this year. By my count, five of them have been won when the eventual loser had a fourth-quarter win probability of 93% or greater (and six games when the probability was 90% or greater.) Wins that should happen once in every 10 of those sorts of situations — or once every 20 — are happening with regularity early this season.
In Week 1, the Falcons had a 97% win probability with 12:55 left in the fourth quarter against the Saints when they had a 23-10 lead. Atlanta lost 27-26. The Bengals had a 93% chance of winning tied 20-all with four minutes left in overtime against the Steelers and lost 23-20.
On Sunday, the Browns had a greater than 99% win probability up 30-17 with 1:55 left in the game. (OK, this one I get.) Baltimore had a win probability of 98% when the Ravens were up 35-21 with 10 minutes remaining. The Dolphins won 42-38.
And the Raiders had a win probability of 96% when leading 23-15 with 16 seconds left against the Cardinals. But Arizona was at the 3-yard line. The Cardinals had to score from 9 feet out, then get the 2-point conversion to tie and score first or more in overtime. You mean to tell me the probability of Arizona winning the game, at that point, was just 4%? This one … I just don’t know about.
My guy R.J. White, the CBS Sports Fantasy managing editor, raised a good point when I publicly kvetched my issues last night.
@rjwhite1
Problem: WP typically based on historic rates, but off more explosive than ever. No comp to even 5 years ago, much less 25. Should identify rate change in plays of 10y, 20y, 30y, etc to apply WP to current environment. I bet those 97s would come down
I recognize I’m looking at a sample size of 30 here and making a determination when win probability takes into account thousands of games across decades. But that may be the exact issue. Why should we weight teams coming back from a 10-point deficit in, say, 1993 the same as today?
The NFL has made no secret of its drive for parity across the league. Already 12 games have been decided by three or fewer points, the most through two weeks of any NFL season. Eight teams have overcome deficits of at least 10 points to win or tie, the second-most all time through Week 2. The game is changing, and these close games and tight finishes regularly lead the notes distributed to media by the league office. All about messaging!
Perhaps we need to add “historic” before win probability. Or, people who didn’t get a “C” in the one statistics class they took in college could determine an “adjusted win probability” to account for the aforementioned offensive explosion.
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NFC NORTH
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DETROIT
Pending the games tonight, two teams are tied for being highest-scoring in the NFL after Week 2. One is the Chiefs, and the location of this blurb gives away the other. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
Two teams are tied with the most points scored in the NFL so far this year: The Chiefs, as you may have expected. And the Lions, as no one expected.
Yes, the Lions have scored 71 points so far this season, tied with the Chiefs for the most in the NFL in 2022. The Lions beat the Commanders 36-27 yesterday after losing to the Eagles 38-35 in Week One.
Getting most of the credit are the Lions’ two young breakout skill position players: Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has 180 receiving yards and 68 rushing yards, and running back D’Andre Swift, who has 200 rushing yards and 62 receiving yards.
But they’re not the only ones deserving credit. Particularly noteworthy is that the Lions’ offensive line has played well, even though it was banged up yesterday with two starters, center Frank Ragnow and left guard Jonah Jackson, both out with injuries. After Sunday’s win, Lions coach Dan Campbell made a point of praising backups Evan Brown and Dan Skipper, who filled in for Ragnow and Jackson.
After an ugly start to the 2021 season, the Lions’ offense improved significantly as they won three of their last six games and scored 29, 30 and 37 points in those three wins. The Lions’ offense took that momentum into this season and is surprisingly looking like one of the best offenses in the league.
– – –
The best name in the NFL is now one of the best receivers in the NFL. Peter King on WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN:
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, with 116 yards receiving and 68 yards rushing, continued to make a huge mark on the NFL in Detroit’s 36-27 win over Washington. A smooth route-runner with excellent hands, St. Brown has the Justin Jefferson-like ability to find a way to be open enough; even when the defense knows he’s going to be targeted 10 or 12 times every game, he finds enough space to make play after play. In the last eight Lions’ games, Detroit’s a surprising 4-4, and look at the production St. Brown has in catches in those eight games: 10, 8, 8, 9, 8, 8, 8 and 9 receptions.
Talking to St. Brown, what I found interesting was how big a factor in his life the 2021 draft was. He’s from Anaheim and went to USC, and he expected (and was told by NFL people) he’d likely be a day-two pick. So he had a party with family and friends on Friday of draft weekend; the NFL had a camera there. But the day came and went, and St. Brown wasn’t picked till round four, on Saturday.
“Even today, talking to you, I still get really emotional just thinking about it, talking about it,” St. Brown said from the Lions’ locker room. “It was a day I’ll never forget. I was furious. But it changed who I am, the way I work, the way I see things. When I get tired in a workout, I won’t quit — I’ll do extra. When I think about that day, that flips the switch for me, and it makes me work harder and longer.
“On the way home that Friday night, I was crying. I got on the Jugs machine late that night, Friday night in California. I got on the machine till I was exhausted, then I went to bed. At that point it was go time for me. I didn’t care who picked me. I was just going to prove myself from that day on.”
Nineteen games and 107 catches into his NFL career, he’s off to a great start.
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MINNESOTA
WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON thought he was headed to the Eagles on Draft Day. Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:
In the 2020 NFL draft, the Eagles selected wide receiver Jalen Reagor with the 21st overall pick and the Vikings selected wide receiver Justin Jefferson 22nd. That proved to be a big mistake by the Eagles, as Jefferson is the much better player. And Jefferson is grateful the Eagles made that mistake.
Now Jefferson and the Vikings (who now have Reagor as well, acquired in a trade last month) are preparing to play the Eagles on Monday night. And Jefferson is recalling that draft night when the Eagles passed on him and the Vikings picked him.
“Every mock draft had me going to Philly, so when Philly was on the board, getting the phone call, and it being Minnesota, it was definitely a shock. But I’m definitely happy — way happier — to be here than there,” Jefferson said.
Jefferson is looking forward to facing the team that he thought would draft him.
“I’m excited for it. I can’t wait,” Jefferson said.
Eagles fans may be watching in frustration, wondering about how different things would be if the Eagles had made the right choice on draft night two years ago.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
The DB received a text Sunday that QB DAK PRESCOTT’s hold on the starting QB job could be slipping in the wake of a strong performance from QB COOPER RUSH.
Peter King seems to have the same thought:
Since opening day 2021, Dak Prescott is 11-7 with a 99.5 passer rating, and Cooper Rush is 2-0 with a 93.63 rating.
I’m just saying.
The DB notes that the cupboard is bare behind aging Rams QB MATTHEW STAFFORD. Is it too much to hope that someday Cooper Rush would be throwing passes to Cooper Kupp?
While we’re at it, isn’t RB TONY POLLARD now the best Dallas has at that position?
Here is how the Cowboys player funds are not allocated:
Brad Spielberger, Esq.
@PFF_Brad
Fun fact: Ezekiel Elliott’s $18.2M 2022 cap hit is over $2.5M more than any other team’s total RB cap hit combined
@Marcus_Mosher
Here are the #Cowboys with the three biggest cap hits in 2022:
QB Dak Prescott (out for several weeks)
RB Ezekiel Elliott (running back)
Tyron Smith (out for several months)
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NEW YORK GIANTS
What to make of the undefeated Giants. Jeff Kerr of CBSSports.com:
The Giants are NFC East contenders
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Give New York a lot of credit for its first 2-0 start since 2016, but a win over a good team is needed for this to be a reality. Whether the Titans are good or not is to be determined (even though the Giants deserve a ton of credit for the impressive road win) and the Panthers are shaping out to be one of the worst teams in the league — again.
The Giants struggled offensively for three quarters and there didn’t seem to be a lot of faith in Daniel Jones among the coaching staff. That changed in the fourth quarter, when the Giants called his number to run for the first down and seal the win against Carolina.
New York’s defense has been impressive in both games — without Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari. The first test for the Giants will be next week against Dallas, which may be the time to revisit this one.
Right now, the Giants lead the NFC East.
With two wins, the Giants would have to go 8-7 the rest of the way for 10-7 which would likely be the Wild Card line. Are there 8 wins on the schedule? We count 10 games against teams we judge to be less than elite – let’s say the Giants went 7-3 in those games and 1-4 in the games against “better” teams. That gets you to 10-7. As long as RB SAQUON BARKLEY stays healthy…
Dallas
Chicago
Green Bay
Baltimore
@ Jacksonville
@ Seattle
Houston
Detroit
@ Dallas
Washington
Philadelphia
@ Washington
@ Minnesota
Indianapolis
@ Philadelphia
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
Dan Graziano of ESPN.com wonders if we’re overreacting to the decline in Tampa Bay’s offense:
The Buccaneers’ defense is going to have to carry Tom Brady this year
Tampa Bay is 2-0, including a gutty comeback victory against nemesis New Orleans on Sunday. But the Bucs have scored just two offensive touchdowns in their two games — a five-yard Brady touchdown pass to Mike Evans in Week 1 against Dallas and a 28-yarder to Breshad Perriman on Sunday. Brady is 36-for-61 (59%) for 402 yards over two games, and Tampa Bay’s defense has been by far the more dominant unit in this still-young season. At age 45, every sign of weakness is going to be seen by some as evidence that time has finally caught up with Brady, and through two weeks, he has offered some grist for that theory.
The verdict: OVERREACTION
Come on. It’s two games, first of all. Micah Parsons was unstoppable in the first one, and the Saints’ defense has had Brady’s number for three years. Plus, look at who was (and wasn’t!) on the field with Brady on Sunday. Wide receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are injured. Evans played hurt, and then he got thrown out of the game. Rob Gronkowski is on a beach somewhere. Left tackle Donovan Smith missed the contest due to injury. On and on and on.
Brady is obviously “dealing with a lot of stuff” off the field, and it’s absolutely possible this is the year age finally catches up with him. But it’s way too early to make that conclusion based on the health circumstances in which the Bucs have found themselves to start the season. The Bucs should be thrilled to be 2-0 with an offense as banged up as theirs, and they’re only going to get healthier. Brady’s arm still looks plenty live, and he won’t be the reason this team fails to get where it wants to go.
– – –
Will Brady go into this week’s match-up with QB AARON RODGERS without any of his top three receivers? The NFL is mulling a suspension for WR MIKE EVANS for his second violent encounter with mouthy Saints CB MARSHON LATTIOMORE. Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com:
Mike Evans’ day ended a bit earlier than expected in Week 2 after the Buccaneers wideout was ejected from Sunday’s win over the Saints due to an on-field scuffle with New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who was also booted from the contest. Now, NFL Network reports that league officials are reviewing Evans’ actions in the altercation for a possible suspension.
The incident occurred in the fourth quarter of this NFC South matchup in New Orleans with the game still knotted a three. Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass to Scotty Miller on a third-and-5 situation, and Lattimore seemed to begin jawing at the veteran quarterback. Leonard Fournette and Lattimore began shoving one another and Evans came over the top and ran right into Lattimore, which turned this into a full-on brawl.
It’s worth noting that Evans is not a first-time offender in this type of situation. Back in 2017, he received a one-game suspension for a hit he made on Lattimore on the Tampa Bay sideline, a move he’d later characterize as “childish.” With that in mind, however, the league could come down a bit more harshly on the receiver as this would be a second offense.
“Naw, naw, naw, naw,” Evans told reporters Sunday when asked if he was concerned about a possible suspension. “That was terrible — 2017 I didn’t even get ejected and that was really a cheap shot. This wasn’t. He punched my teammate in the face and I just pushed him to the ground.”
If Evans is suspended, it’s a less than ideal turn of events for the Buccaneers. Despite being 2-0 to start the year, they are particularly banged up at the receiver position as Chris Godwin and Julio Jones both missed Week 2 due to injury. If they are unable to go in Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers and Evans is suspended, Tom Brady’s offense will be drastically undermanned.
– – –
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com approvingly hears that the NFL is looking at other Buccaneers culprits to punish:
Conspicuously visible during Sunday’s fourth-quarter fracas between the Buccaneers and Saints was retired Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians. The NFL may be taking a closer look at whether he’ll be allowed to roam so freely on the sidelines during games.
Now the “senior adviser to the General Manger” (which sounds better than “assistant to the traveling secretary” and/or “assistant to the Regional Manager”), Arians was present and active on Sunday. He was doing no apparent or obvious advising of the General Manager, however. Even before the brawl that resulted in the ejection of Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans and Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, which featured Arians chirping and/or instigating from the sideline, Arians could be seen peppering one of the officials with questions and/or complaints.
Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the league office currently is working on addressing all things related to the incident, including sidelines. That specifically includes Arians.
It’s unclear whether the league can direct the Buccaneers to get Arians off the sideline, but it should. He’s no longer a member of the coaching staff. He should act accordingly.
Then again, the Bucs may appreciate having an extra agitator during the games. Someone who can piss and moan about whatever, whenever while the head coach is focused on other things. As long as Arians doesn’t interject himself into the actual coaching of the team, the Bucs can benefit from having him around.
That doesn’t make it OK, from the league’s perspective. If Arians is permitted to keep doing what he did on Sunday, every team should consider designating one specific member of the non-coaching staff to be a chronic irritant, to the officials and/or opponents and/or anyone.
As reported last night (but widely ignored and now regarded as “breaking news” from multiple outlets this morning), Evans and Lattimore face a potential suspension, because of their history. If a suspension will be imposed, it most likely will happen today. There undoubtedly would be an immediate appeal, with an expedited ruling.
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NFC WEST
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ARIZONA
86 yards to gain 2 yards. ESPN Stats & Info:
@ESPNStatsInfo
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Kyler Murray ran a total distance of 85.69 yards on this successful 2-point conversion rush.
Other reports have it at 84.69 yards – which is why we think things like this should be rounded off since .01 yard is a third of an inch.
And this from Cards PR maven Mark Dalton:
@CardsMarkD
In yesterday’s win at Las Vegas, Kyler Murray became the first NFL player ever with a passing TD, rushing TD, 2-point conversion run & 2-point conversion pass in the same game.
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SAN FRANCISCO
Peter King on SF’s mandated QB change:
In a cruel bit of I-told-you-so fate, Kyle Shanahan can feel good about the controversial decision to backstop Trey Lance with Jimmy Garoppolo three weeks ago. Because Lance’s first season as a starter lasted exactly 73 minutes, and now, again, this franchise will go as far as Garoppolo will take it.
Lance will undergo surgery to repair a broken ankle and possible further damage to his right leg today in California. It’s highly likely he’ll be out till the 2023 offseason.
“I’m sorry,” is about all Shanahan could figure to say by the time he got to the injured Lance late in the first quarter against Seattle in Santa Clara. “You were playing your ass off.”
Ninety minutes after the game, Shanahan, driving home, tried to be pragmatic about the constant in the 49ers’ world since Shanahan and GM John Lynch took over in 2017. “Four of our six years here we’ve lost the starting quarterback to injury,” he said. “I mean, you just deal with it. You’ve got to. Our team really loves Trey. But these guys, they plan on winning games regardless of the obstacles.
“We’ll be somber Monday morning, but this league doesn’t wait for anybody. It’s unbelievable, really, what’s happened here. We’ve only played two years without a major quarterback injury. But really, this is the first time we’ve had a really good Plan B. It’s a long time since this franchise had a quarterback situation like this one, with two guys we know can win — probably back to Joe Montana and Steve Young. I’m not comparing these guys to Joe and Steve, but I’m talking about going into games now knowing we’ve still got a great chance.”
As much as Shanahan didn’t want to just move on, he knows he’s got to. Garoppolo, playing for the first time since January and since spring shoulder surgery, was an effective 13 of 21 for 154 yards, with a TD and no turnovers. The Niners entered the day 3-17 against Seattle in their last 20 meetings; Garoppolo piloted the team to a 24-7 edge over Seattle in his 47 minutes of play. He started five of five for 80 yards, including a zipped 38-yard TD to tight end Ross Dwelley. Garoppolo’s a metronome: You know exactly what you’re getting with him, and if the Niners can stay relatively healthy on defense, they should be able to be strong playoff contenders again — even after the crushing news of Sunday.
At 1-1, San Francisco has a chance to gain ground on the division in the next month. They’re at Denver, home to the mysterious Rams, at 0-2 Carolina, at 0-2 Atlanta. Then the schedule gets tough.
As for Lance, the reversal of fortune is shocking, after an offseason of debate about whether he’s ready to be The Man for a playoff team. And he’ll enter 2023 mostly the same way he entered 2022: with tremendous uncertainty. After starting one college season (at the mid-major level, at North Dakota State), he’ll have made four NFL starts in two seasons. Shanahan will profess confidence in him, and it’s likely he’ll believe it. But Lance will still be a major question mark, and as for who will backstop him then…that’s too far in the future to matter this morning. What matters now is a road trip this week to Denver, when another team won’t care about San Francisco’s woes. In the NFL, that’s cruel reality. Next man up. Veteran man up, in this case.
Albert Breer of SI.com with some good stuff from Garoppolo:
“It’s tough, man,” Garoppolo says. “Injuries, it’s never fun, and especially for a young guy like that, I’ve been in his shoes and it’s going to be tough initially. But it’s how you come out after. I’m a big believer in that. Trey’s a tough dude, he’s got a good mindset, and I’m hoping [for] the best for him.”
And when it was over, Garoppolo went with a bunch of his teammates to the training room to see Lance and reiterated the message—that he’d been there, and that he knows it sucks, but that it’s important to draw some positives out of a tough situation. The message could resonate with Lance, too, since he just saw Garoppolo do just that.
Going back to when the Niners traded up nine spots to position themselves to land a quarterback in the 2021 draft, Garoppolo knew his days in San Francisco were numbered. After San Francisco took Lance with the intention of redshirting him as a rookie, Garoppolo knew he’d have to grit his teeth, swallow his pride, and do the best he could with a Super Bowl–caliber roster even with all that writing on the wall.
You know the rest. Garoppolo helped the Niners to the NFC title game. San Francisco followed the course it charted thereafter to hand the reins to Lance. Garoppolo had a shoulder injury that he first tried to rehab, then had to have surgery on. And that surgery made it much more difficult to move Garoppolo than it would’ve been otherwise—and impossible to get the price (a couple of second-round picks) the team was looking for.
So the situation lingered, other teams filled their quarterback openings, and the Niners and Garoppolo were stuck with each other. Which led to Garoppolo spending the first few weeks of camp throwing by himself on a side field and going home when his teammates would go into meetings, with the premise being there was no need for anyone to waste anyone else’s time if he wasn’t gonna be on the team.
“Weird offseason in general,” Garoppolo says. “I go back to the shoulder surgery—didn’t think I had to get it and then all of a sudden, rehab’s not working so we had to get it. Then, yeah, being on the side field, I had my guy catching balls for me, he did a great job, he’s one of the interns here, and yeah, it was weird. Honestly, just the whole situation—didn’t know if I was going to be here. … I’m rambling, man.”
Rambling because, well, there’s a lot there—right down to the staffer who was catching the ball out on a practice field adjacent to where Lance was leading the first offense.
“It was just funny, we didn’t have, like, receivers, so he was the only guy that could catch for me,” Garoppolo says, laughing. “He actually was [good]. He’s like 6-foot-3 so he’s got a good catch radius.”
But, of course, it’d be hard for anyone in that situation not to think they were spinning their wheels. And Garoppolo was.
Kyle Shanahan was the one who, out of nowhere, came to Garoppolo with the message: As frustration mounted on both sides over the lack of a real trade partner, the door was open for Garoppolo’s return. Not at the $24.2 million base he was due, of course. And not as the starter. But if Garoppolo wanted to stick around, Shanahan said, the Niners would be amenable to working something out.
“It was right in the middle of training camp, [Kyle] kind of just called me in one day and threw out the idea, and it really wasn’t even on my radar until he said something about it,” Garoppolo says. “And then he kind of laid it out and obviously the restructure is what it is, I think it had to be done just with the situation. I know it sounds weird, but things kind of just fell into place, honestly. It wasn’t like I was planning on this happening or anything.
“But I’m a big believer in, if you’re a good person, good things will happen to you.”
And absent there being a starting job with a contender waiting for him, the more he thought about it, the more the status quo made sense.
“I mean, honestly, at one point, I didn’t think I was going to be a Niner,” he continues. “I was pretty set on going to a couple different teams I had in mind. And then all of a sudden things switched [at the] last second. There was a lot of familiarity with the organization, the offense, teammates, all that stuff played a role. It was just a good opportunity. I know we got a good team here and I know everyone keeps saying this, but we’ve got a chance at a Super Bowl, and that’s what I’m trying to do.”
So he accepted the Niners’ parameters—he’d have to make less than what Lance’s rookie deal averages ($8.525 million) in base pay, with the chance to make more of what he was giving up back in play-time incentives, and got no-tag and no-trade provisions for agreeing to the deal, which gave him some control.
Still, it’s not like he could’ve forecast what happened Sunday. And, as we talked, he was sure to keep saying how badly he feels for Lance, especially since, as he said, he’s been there before. “It all starts with Trey,” he says. “Obviously, I feel terrible for him, I’ve been on that side of it; I’ve dealt with it.”
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SEATTLE
A letter from one of Peter King’s readers sparks a reaction:
From Jean Hermlin, of Paris: “Re Russell Wilson: It’s pretty obvious there is a lot of animosity from guys who were former leaders on the team towards him. Why do you think that is the case and have you ever seen anything like it? Mike Sando of The Athletic detailed how several players who had been staying away from the team (Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Marshawn Lynch) are now more actively involved, and now we have this quote of Pete Carroll saying, ‘As much as anything, it was representing the guys that played before, it meant a lot to those guys.’
Obviously, I don’t know the dynamics behind the scenes on other teams (or this one, really), but I’ve never had the feeling anything remotely close was happening with the Bradys, Mannings, Breeses of the world.”
The reaction of the fans in Seattle shocked me, Jean. I understand booing a guy through the course of the game; no venue in sports today is as influential as Seattle’s home field, and the fans showed that for four quarterbacks. But I do not understand booing the quarterback of the team for the most glorious decade in franchise history during the pregame as well. As I wrote last week, the Seahawks in the 10 years before Wilson arrived made the playoffs three times and were a combined two games over .500; the Seahawks in Wilson’s 10 years made the playoffs eight times and were 51 games over .500. True — many veterans, particularly on defense, found Wilson to be a little bit of a goody-two-shoes whose fame overshadowed a great defense. Maybe it’s because I’m older now, and I wish so often that fans would be classier, and it’s possible to be classy and intensely loyal at the same time. But I didn’t like the whole of what I saw last Monday.
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AFC WEST
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LAS VEGAS
WR HUNTER RENFROW is known for his good hands. Not in OT on Sunday. Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:
Hunter Renfrow and the Raiders: Renfrow is a fantastic player but he had a rough overtime for the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
Renfrow fumbled twice in overtime against the Arizona Cardinals. The first fumble was recovered by the Raiders. Renfrow wasn’t so lucky the second time.
Renfrow was hit hard by linebacker Isaiah Simmons after a short catch and coughed up the ball. Byron Murphy Jr. scooped it and returned it 59 yards for a touchdown and a 29-23 win.
The loss is a bad one for the Raiders. They led 20-0 at halftime. In a rough AFC West they can’t drop winnable games, and now they’re 0-2.
Sunday’s loss came after they led 23-7 going into the fourth quarter and had multiple chances to stop the Cardinals on their final drive of regulation that ended up tying the game. They’ll regret Sunday’s loss for a while.
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AFC NORTH
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CINCINNATI
Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com on the Bengals sad start:
The Cincinnati Bengals are a bad 0-2 to start the season.
They have lost two games as fairly significant betting favorites. They lost last week to the Pittsburgh Steelers when they were minus-five in turnover differential. The offense didn’t get anything moving in Week 2, and they lost 20-17 on the final play to the Dallas Cowboys.
The Bengals had a chance to win against a Cowboys team led by replacement quarterback Cooper Rush. They tied it in the fourth quarter and then forced a punt. But Joe Burrow and the offense went three-and-out, punted from deep in the Bengals’ own territory and Rush completed a couple passes to set up the game-winning field goal.
Going three-and-out with the game on the line sums up the Bengals’ start to the season.
Teams that lose the Super Bowl often struggle the following season. The Bengals seemed like a good candidate to regress after their hot finish to last season. Losing twice to teams they should have beat, with the offense turning it over too often in one game and not moving the ball in the other, is a discouraging way to follow up on their AFC title.
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CLEVELAND
Peter King disapproves of the taste of Browns fans who voted for a new marking at the 50-yard line:
I think that gigantic elf at midfield of the Browns stadium looks downright bizarre and, quite frankly, idiotic.
I heard the strangest sentence on Sunday. This was the explanation from Scott Hanson (of Amazon Red Zone) about why there is a 40-foot-by-30-foot Brownie the Elf logo on the field: “Per Scottish folklore, from hundreds of years ago, apparently the elf pops up in your home and helps you do chores.”
– – –
John Breech of CBSSports.com details the six snafus that cost Cleveland a win Sunday over the Jets:
For the most part, the Browns played an impressive game, but they couldn’t overcome SIX monumental mistakes, which all took place over the final two minutes.
The biggest one came from Chubb, who could have sealed the win if he had simply fallen to the ground instead of scoring a TD with 1:55 left. If he had done that, the game would have been over because the run gave Cleveland a first down and the Jets had zero timeouts remaining.
We’ve seen running backs go down at the 1-yard line before, but Chubb didn’t do it here. Even if he had gone out of bounds, the Browns still could have simply kneeled the ball three straight times to pick up the win.
Chubb’s gaffe wasn’t the only big mistake the Browns made. Last week’s hero for the Browns, Cade York, definitely wasn’t the hero this week. The Browns would have had 31 points at the end of the game, but York missed the extra point following Chubb’s touchdown. The missed kick left the Browns in front by just 13 points, which helped open the door for the Jets comeback.
The mistakes by York and Chubb wouldn’t have mattered if the Browns defense didn’t give up a long touchdown, which brings us to mistake number three: The Browns somehow left Corey Davis wide open for a 66-yard touchdown.
Even after Joe Flacco hit Davis for the score with 1:22 left to cut Cleveland’s lead to 30-24, the Browns still could have clinched the win by recovering the Jets’ onside kick, but instead, we got mistake number four. On the Jets’ onside kick, the ball bounced off the hands of Amari Cooper and into the hands of New York’s Justin Hardee.
Nine plays after the recovery, the Jets would score the go-ahead touchdown with a 15-yard pass from Flacco to Garrett Wilson (Giving up the TD was mistake number five).
Even after falling behind, the Browns STILL had a chance to win. With six seconds left, the Browns were at their own 46 and they needed roughly eight to 10 yards to give York a realistic shot of making a field goal. However, York never got a chance to win the game because Jacoby Brissett threw an interception for mistake number six.
It was a total of meltdown in a game that the Browns had no business losing. Their ‘F-‘ performance over the final two minutes completely overshadowed the fact that they actually played pretty good football for the better part of three quarters.
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AFC SOUTH
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INDIANAPOLIS
ESPN Stats & Info:
The Colts have been shut out 24-0 against the Jaguars.
This is the third time since 1994 the Colts have been shut out in a football game, all three of which have come at the hands of the Jaguars: week 7 2017, week 13 2018, and today.
The 2018 game was in Jacksonville, a 6-0 loss with the great Andrew Luck at QB.
The 2017 game was in Indianapolis, a 27-0 loss with Jacoby Brissett at QB.
Peyton Manning was never shut out.
Jeff George was the QB in the next previous shutout – to New England on 12/26/93.
– – –
John Breech of CBSSports.com gives out an “F” to the Colts:
F – Colts
The Colts should just save themselves a trip to Florida and start forfeiting anytime they’re scheduled to play in Jacksonville. The Colts have now lost eight straight road games to the Jaguars and their nightmare continued on Sunday. The Colts offense started off the game with an interception on their opening possession and three straight three-and-outs after that, and things only got uglier from there. Matt Ryan threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter that killed any shot at a comeback. This was an embarrassing all-round performance for a Colts team that has now tripped over its own feet and fallen on its face to start the season.
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JACKSONVILLE
Peter King on QB TREVOR LAWRENCE:
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who led the Jags’ stunning 24-0 shutout of Indianapolis, wasn’t really the national story Sunday; the Colts’ continuing and confounding incompetence in north Florida was. But Jacksonville, depending on the outcome of 0-1 Tennessee’s game in Buffalo tonight, will exit week two either alone or tied for first in the AFC South. And the continuing development of Lawrence (25 of 30, 235 yards, two TDs, no turnovers) was a big reason why.
“What’s the throw you’re most proud of today?” I asked him Sunday evening.
He thought for a moment and said, “It was a simple one. I think it was just a three- or four-yard gain. But I chucked it out to James Robinson, maybe made it second-and-six or whatever.”
Actually, it came on the first series of the third quarter. On second-and-12 from midfield, he dumped it to Robinson for a gain of four. Then he threw an incompletion, and Jacksonville punted.
That was a highlight play?
“Our plan was to take what the defense gave us, whether that’s five, seven yards a throw, whatever it was,” he said. “Really, we were able to do that the whole game and run the ball effectively and control the clock. I think that’s just a good lesson in general for us moving forward — instead of trying to force a ball in a tight window that wasn’t really there and keeping my eyes downfield for too long and throwing it away, make the play that’s there. That’s the next step I’ve been trying to take is just being really smart with the ball, knowing where my outlets are.”
Lawrence seems happier with coach Doug Pederson than he was with the Urban Meyer regime. “I think we’re really similar personality-wise,” he said. “I’ve enjoyed getting to know him and then on the football field he’s a really smart coach. His approach is great and it’s been awesome for our team.” Add in two strong edge players, Josh Allen and first overall pick Travon Walker, and Lawrence can afford to play patient and smart. He knows he won’t have to score in the thirties to win most weeks.
The Jaguars last shuout was also against the Colts – on December 2, 2018.
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AFC EAST
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MIAMI
Dan Graziano of ESPN.com thinks the Dolphins have shown they are legit:
The Dolphins are a legitimate AFC contender
You can sit there and argue for days about whose comeback win on Sunday was the most ridiculous. You want to argue Jets? Cardinals? Go right ahead. But somebody in your fantasy league won this week because of what the Dolphins did, erasing a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit against a very well-regarded Ravens defense with Tua Tagovailoa just straight up airing it out to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Each of those dudes had 11 catches, two touchdowns and over 170 yards.
Tagovailoa finished with 469 yards and six touchdown passes on 72% passing. The Dolphins’ defense, which was being strafed by Lamar Jackson for three quarters, got its stops. And Miami is 2-0 and in solo first place in the AFC East (pending the result of Monday Night’s Bills game). Tagovailoa wanted to prove the doubters wrong, and his doubters are going to have to be pretty quiet this week.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Yes, the AFC is stacked with contenders, but … the Ravens are supposed to be one of them! To come back like this, throwing the ball with a maligned quarterback to the high-speed receivers you were trying to build this offense around, is a straight-up statement to the rest of the league that Miami is going to be hard to play this year. The Bengals look wobbly. The Broncos look lost. The Colts look awful. It’s possible there aren’t as many monster contenders in the AFC as we thought there were in the preseason. Should we be talking about the Dolphins along with the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers right now? The Fins probably haven’t quite earned that just yet. But Sunday’s outing tells us they absolutely could, before long.
It was just last week that QB TUA TAGOVAILOA was being disparaged by his predecessor Ryan Fitzpatick and the man who could have been his coach, Sean Payton. Today, he sits atop the NFL in passing yards with 739 and is tied with 7 passing TDs.
Judy Bautista of NFL.com:
– In the smattering of Miami Dolphins fans here Sunday afternoon, there were more than a few wearing Dan Marino jerseys. It has been a long time since Marino played — he was on the sideline pre-game as an eminence gris for the franchise — and that was the last time it felt like the Dolphins could score anytime, from anywhere, when they are on the field.
Marino never wanted for believers the way Tua Tagovailoa does and maybe always will. Nobody picked apart Marino’s mechanics or questioned his arm strength. And certainly, nobody ever wondered if Marino was the right man for the Dolphins’ job. Maybe, after Sunday, there won’t be quite so much doubt and debate about Tagovailoa anymore either. His passes don’t have Marino’s zip — few quarterbacks’ do — but on Sunday, in throwing for 469 yards and six touchdown passes to bring the Miami Dolphins back from a three-touchdown fourth quarter deficit for a stunning 42-38 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, Tagovailoa gave the Miami Dolphins what Marino did every Sunday and what the franchise has craved ever since — hope and thrills and a sense of what might be possible.
“Now maybe Tua will finally listen to me,” said coach Mike McDaniel. “What I mean by that is, it’s awesome to be critical of yourself. It is good. He has a high standard for himself. … The absolute worst thing could have happened in the beginning of the game, the contested ball, not really his fault on the first interception and then he starts pressing and throws it up for the second interception.
“This is huge. He stopped worrying about the last play and went and played and took his responsibility seriously to his teammates. ‘I’m going to lead this team confidently.’ It is what you get into sports for. It is cool for the coaching staff and him. It was coming to life. It was a moment, I think, he’ll never forget and hopefully he can use it moving forward. … His teammates learned a lot about him and I think he learned something about himself.”
Lamar Jackson runs to QB-record 11th 100-yard rushing game thanks to career-long 79-yard TD
If Tagovailoa has lacked confidence, it is understandable. Brian Flores, the Dolphins’ previous head coach, clearly had concerns about him. A segment of Dolphins fans are still mourning the draft day decision to select Tagovailoa ahead of Justin Herbert in 2020. Last week — after the Dolphins beat the Patriots in their season opener — his former teammate, Ryan Fitzpatrick, said Tagovailoa was limited physically and former Saints coach Sean Payton predicted the team would eventually bench Tagovailoa. To which Tyreek Hill, who has become a one-man public relations executive for his quarterback, said Sunday, they can watch the tape.
“I ain’t got to say too much,” Hill said. “All people gotta do is look at the film, who he is, how consistent he is, that last drive it showed who he is as a leader, telling guys, ‘make sure you run the ball to the official to save time.’ “
Like Marino for so long, Tagovailoa has a pair of dynamic receivers to run under his passes and run with them. Jaylen Waddle and Hill are the modern day — and very fast — version of the Marks Brothers, Duper and Clayton, and they feature prominently on Sunday’s film, too. Facing a nearly flawless performance from Lamar Jackson, the Dolphins were in a 21-point hole at halftime and again at the start of the fourth quarter. After the Dolphins had dominated the Patriots last week, this was something different — a test for a new coach, and a reconstituted offense and a team that believes it has the players to be special.
“I told the guys I was really hoping to get some adversity in this game, I want to see how we respond to a deficit,” McDaniel said. “Apparently, they took me way too literal.”
What McDaniel also tells his team is that adversity is opportunity and this was an opportunity for the Dolphins to prove that they could play with the AFC’s elite, that Tagovailoa could be the equal of a player like Jackson.
The Dolphins’ pass game formula is not hard to figure: Tagovailoa throws mostly short and intermediate passes and Waddle and Hill fly, so much so that before the game, Hill said he wanted to get “drunk off the YAC” like Waddle did last week. Hill, who missed a few plays with cramps, finished with 190 yards and two touchdowns, Waddle with 171 yards and another two touchdowns. But it was not the yards after catch that will get the attention. It was also the well-placed pass to Mike Gesicki. It was the in-stride bombs from Tagovailoa, the kind of throws that some wondered if he could even make. In the fourth quarter, he hit Hill for a 48-yard touchdown, who got open behind the Ravens’ defense. Two and a half minutes later, no Ravens safety was playing deep and Tagovailoa and Hill recognized the Cover 0 defense together. Hill gave Tagovailoa their secret signal — “Yeeyee,” Hill said — which was Hill’s way of telling his quarterback he was going to make a play for him. One heave later, the Dolphins had a 60-yard touchdown and the game was tied.
Still, Jackson had the ball and he had been brilliant, a one-man offense who had already thrown a 75-yard touchdown pass and run for a 79-yard touchdown, who had carried a perfect quarterback rating through much of the game and finished with 119 of the Ravens’ 155 rushing yards. At one point, when the game appeared out of reach, the crowd stood and chanted “M-V-P”. They might still be right about that. But with the game tied, Jackson could get the Ravens only into field goal position and Justin Tucker gave them a fleeting lead.
This, then, would require something different from Tagovailoa and the Dolphins — a more deliberate two-minute drive, something that would net a touchdown but also chew up the clock. Tagovailoa would say later that the last time he played a game like this was in college against LSU. Hill said the offense was riding off a high from how the defense had been limiting the Ravens. There were short passes, with the clock ticking. And on second-and-goal from the 7-yard line, a perfectly placed throw to Waddle for the game-winning touchdown.
Tagovailoa has mostly stayed out of the minute-by-minute critique of his game, even when Hill went out of his way this summer to lavish praise on him. Nobody would have blamed him if he had taken a moment to crow on Sunday. He did not, opting instead to spread the credit — to the running game and offensive line and the team. In the first half, he said, they couldn’t stick to their offensive rhythm. He always wants big plays and eventually they came in the second half.
“I’m always confident in what I can do,” he said. “I think this shows the resiliency of our team. Brings all of our confidence up, our confidence in one another, confidence that if the offense has a turnover, the defense will get it back.”
Later, Tagovailoa added “For me, every game is a big game. I want to do good every time I’m out there.”
Perhaps most importantly, Tagovailoa said that even when things were not clicking, nobody panicked. Which, in hindsight, makes sense when you know you have the firepower to blast out of a hole the way the Dolphins did Sunday.
At halftime, McDaniel challenged his team to say “who cares what the score it,” he said. He wanted them to get something out of the game to feel good about and they’d worry about the score again some time in the fourth quarter. McDaniel said at that point he didn’t even care about the outcome of the game. It was, simply, a huge opportunity to show who the Dolphins are, and once the Dolphins were within two scores, McDaniel felt pretty good about their chances.
Now the whole league knows who the Dolphins can be, something they haven’t been in more than two decades. A team that can craft the biggest fourth-quarter rally on the road in franchise history.
“We’ll never give up,” Hill said. “No matter the score. No matter who we’re playing.”
And they will never be out of it.
Frank Schwab of YahooSports.com:
The Tagovailoa-Hill combo is working out pretty well. The Dolphins had one of their best wins in years on Sunday, coming back from 21 points down to beat the Baltimore Ravens 42-38. Tagovailoa had by far his best NFL game, throwing six touchdown passes.
Give Tagovailoa credit, but also give the Dolphins’ front office credit for understanding how Hill would change Miami’s entire offense.
Hill had 190 yards on 11 catches, including two long touchdowns in the comeback. He has a unique ability to make defenses look slow. Because teams have to account for his world-class speed on every play, it opens up a lot elsewhere in the field. That’s a reason Jaylen Waddle had 171 yards and two touchdowns.
Hill’s presence is also the main reason Tagovailoa looks like he might have a new start to his career.
Tagovailoa was criticized and not all of it was fair. He had played only two NFL seasons, and was still working back from an awful hip injury he suffered in his final season at Alabama. It wasn’t his fault he was drafted before Justin Herbert, who he’ll always be compared to. But mostly, he had nothing around him. He needed Hill, and a coaching staff that believed in him. Ownership didn’t believe fully in Tagovailoa either, considering the tampering with Tom Brady that cost Stephen Ross a $1.5 million fine and a suspension.
The Dolphins got Hill, hired offensive guru Mike McDaniel as their new head coach and they look better than they have in a long time. Hill has changed everything about Miami. He’s one of the rare non-quarterbacks who has that type of an impact. The Dolphins haven’t always hit on their high-profile moves. But the Hill trade looks perfect so far.
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NEW ENGLAND
Bounce back for the Patriots in Pittsburgh. John Breech gives them an “A-“:
A- Patriots
The Patriots showed why there were the favorites entering Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh. New England’s defense held the Steelers to a mere 14 points while forcing Mitch Trubisky into more check downs than the home crowd wanted to see. The offense received a big game from Mac Jones, while the Patriots’ special teams came down with a big turnover to set up Damien Harris’ game-clinching score. A few too many penalties from the offensive line prevented the Patriots from getting a perfect grade.
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NEW YORK JETS
Yes, QB JOE FLACCO is one of Peter King’s Offensive Players of the Week – and he deserved it.
Joe Flacco, quarterback, New York Jets. The football world, and Jets’ fandom, rolled eyes at the 37-year-old Flacco starting in place of Zach Wilson till the kid’s ready to return from a knee injury. And when he couldn’t escape Myles Garrett for most of Sunday, the negativity intensified. Then Flacco led two road TD drives in the last two minutes, making the Jets the first team to overcome a 13-point deficit inside the two-minute warning of the fourth quarter to win an NFL game since 2001. Good for the steely Flacco, who never blinked down the stretch of a game no one gave the Jets a chance to win.
Sometimes we’ve wondered how much Flacco still cares, but he certainly was into the game Sunday with almost a smile when it ended.
“Obviously that’s an emotional one, and we’re freaking out.”
— Jets QB Joe Flacco, to Aditi Kinkhabwala of CBS on the field after the Jets beat Cleveland 31-30.
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THIS AND THAT
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BROADCAST NEWS
Peter King explains what is going on with Monday Night Football (times 2) this evening:
The NFL is experimenting with a staggered-start doubleheader tonight in primetime: Tennessee-Buffalo on ESPN at 7:15 p.m., Minnesota-Philadelphia on ABC at 8:30 p.m. Starting at the beginning of the second half of Titans-Bills, ESPN and ABC will periodically show double-box action on both channels, and there will be a small scorebox on-screen from the other game during each game.
The NFL is doing this, essentially, to extend what would be a three-hour, 15-minute window of football in prime time to four hours, 30 minutes…and to blanket the Disney channels — ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, ESPN+ — with 75 more minutes of football on Monday night than usual, and to ensure that if the Bills are up 27-6 at the half that the audience will move to the other game and watch more football instead of cruising Netflix.
Next season, ESPN will have three such Monday night twinbills. No decision has been made on the times of games, or which weeks the doubleheaders will fall. But starting games before say 8:45 p.m. means the NFL can put Eastern Time Zone franchises in the late window; if the NFL were to choose, say, a 10 p.m. or 10:15 p.m. start, that would eliminate 17 of the 32 NFL teams that exist in Eastern Time from playing in those games. I have heard reliably that it’s very unlikely the NFL will return to 10 ET or 10:15 ET starts for games again.
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