The Daily Briefing Monday, September 5, 2022

AROUND THE NFL

Six teams finished with five or fewer wins last season: the Jaguars, Lions, Jets, Giants, Texans and Panthers. Eight other teams joined them in finishing with records below .500: the Bears, Commanders, Seahawks, Broncos, Falcons, Vikings, Browns and Ravens.

With the start of the 2022 NFL season just over a week away, we ask the question:

Which NFL team will enjoy the biggest turnaround in 2022?

Nate_Burleson – Detroit Lions

I understand that Aaron Rodgers’ Packers are kings of the NFC North, but the Detroit Lions are looking at the throne, ready to take a shot. They might miss, but they will be closer than they have been in years — with Detroit last winning a division title in 1993. Jared Goff is still on his “prove ’em wrong” campaign after being traded by the Rams in January of 2021, and head coach Dan Campbell wants to turn his passionate speeches into tangible wins. Expect the Lions to win far more than the three victories they recorded last season; this is the year Detroit gets back on the map.

Marc Ross – Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos haven’t had a winning season since 2016 and haven’t made the postseason since 2015, when they won Super Bowl 50. It feels like all of that is about to change. Coming off a seven-win season, the Broncos made one of the biggest moves of the offseason when they traded for Russell Wilson, who does few things better than winning. Wilson had at least 10 victories in eight of his 10 seasons in Seattle. Denver will remember real quick how it feels to not only win in the regular season — by the way, they have the NFL’s easiest first eight games (.412 opposing win percentage in 2021) — but deep in January.

David Carr – New York Jets

It’s been over a decade since the Jets were in the playoffs. That drought stops at 11 seasons. General manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh have overhauled this roster in the last two years, adding playmakers throughout the offense and defense. It’s a young team, but I believe it has the pieces to go from winning four games in 2021 to playoff contention in 2022.

DeAngelo Hall – Jacksonville Jaguars

I hear what you’re saying, David. If not for Zach Wilson’s preseason setback and Mekhi Becton being out for the season with a knee injury, I also would’ve picked the Jets. But … I’m going with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The dysfunction surrounding the team last season was a big reason it held the No. 1 overall pick in April. Bringing in Doug Pederson, a winner who’s high on building culture, along with the addition of big-time playmakers through free agency and the draft makes the Jaguars a much — MUCH — better team already. If Trevor Lawrence takes a step forward in Year 2, this team could shock more than just the Colts this season.

Maurice Jones-Drew – Baltimore Ravens

Sure, the Ravens won eight games and were on the cusp of securing a postseason berth last season, but that was without many of their star players, including starting running back J.K. Dobbins, cornerback Marlon Humphrey and left tackle Ronnie Stanley, among others. This team has all those guys back, along with a healthy Lamar Jackson, who’s going to go on an absolute tear if his megadeal doesn’t get done by Week 1. The Ravens have the potential to be one of the best teams in the league, and if they are, they’ll easily surpass their eight wins from a year ago.

Somehow the Broncos and Ravens fell like they are in a different category of “turnaround” than the other three.  But still, no winning season in Denver since 2016?

We checked, and actually it is five straight losing seasons for the Broncos.  Prior to 2016, the Broncos matched that with five losing seasons between 1983 and 2015 – 5 in 33 seasons, now 5 straight.

MINNESOTA

Peter King on the Vikings’ cuts:

It was shocking to see the new broom of GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah sweep so clean in building this roster this year. Seven of predecessor Rick Spielman’s 11 draft picks from 2021 are gone, including three third-round picks and presumptive strong QB prospect Kellen Mond. Mond was picked one slot ahead of Davis Mills in Houston, Mond’s history, and Mills might be the Texans’ quarterback of the future. In addition, 12 other players on Spielman’s 2021 Vikings roster were let go by the new regime this summer. But the Vikings will enter the season with quarterback Kirk Cousins, left tackle Christian Darrisaw and the top six skill players—running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, receivers Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn, and tight end Irv Smith—imported by Spielman, so there’s something to be said for the previous regime’s acumen in building a playoff-contending offense. One GM on the Vikings’ purge to me Friday: “No team’s had more draft picks than Minnesota in recent years [46 between 2018 and 2021], and now way more than half of them are gone. They’re putting a lot of trust in Kwesi there.”

The Browns made a waiver claim on Mond.

DALLAS

A brilliant signing of a veteran who cut his teeth with a division rival or desperation?  Time will tell.  Nick Shook of NFL.com:

Get Jason Peters a 10-gallon hat. His trip to Dallas made him the newest Cowboy.

Peters and the Cowboys have agreed to terms on a contract less than one week before the start of the 2022 regular season, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday. Rapoport added that Peters will start out on Dallas’ practice squad as he works his way into the lineup.

The 40-year-old veteran met with the Cowboys on Friday, clearing the way for Dallas to sign him. It was an addition made out of necessity following a serious injury to left tackle Tyron Smith that will likely keep him out until December, if not longer.

Peters’ signing is the culmination of an extended wait for the two-time first-team All-Pro, who was content with keeping to himself while contending NFL teams sorted out their rosters. He found an opportunity as a result of an unfortunate occurrence, but it is nevertheless a chance to play in 2022.

Peters just might not play right away. Rookie Tyler Smith is expected to replace Tyron Smith at left tackle to start the season, and Peters would ideally slot in behind him while also preparing mentally and physically for the year.

Peters started 15 games at left tackle for the Chicago Bears last season after signing with the club in the middle of August. He’s joining the Cowboys more than two weeks later this time around, but unlike last season, he won’t be expected to start right away.

Instead, he’ll provide depth in case of emergency and allow the Cowboys to consider moving Smith back to guard — where they intended to play him in 2022 — and replacing the rookie with Peters at left tackle.

Funny how the rules have changed to allow a player who entered the league in 2004 to go on the practice squad.

TAMPA BAY

It has appeared that G ALI MARPET is really retired.  But maybe not TE ROB GRONKOWSKI.  Grey Papke at Larry Brown Sports:

Rob Gronkowski’s longtime agent Drew Rosenhaus still has what he calls a “gut feeling” about the tight end’s potential NFL return.

In an interview with Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press, Rosenhaus doubled down on his opinion that Gronkowski will ultimately be tempted to come back and help Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win another title.

“It looks like Rob’s having a great time without football. It looks like he’s really enjoying himself,” Rosenhaus said. “He says he’s retired for good. I always stick with my opinion, and as I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if circumstances played out in a given fashion where Tom Brady and the Buccaneers need Rob, if later in the season, Rob decides that he’s going to come back for his guy Tom Brady and maybe finish the year out and help the team win another championship. That would not surprise me.

“I’m not predicting that, and I’m not saying that’s coming from Rob, because it’s not. Rob says he’s retired. But that’s just my opinion. I’ve represented him for more than a decade and that’s just my gut feeling.”

This isn’t that dissimilar from Rosenhaus’ previous prediction, and understandably so. It’s tough to envision anyone being surprised by a potential Gronkowski return considering he’s done it before. Even Gronkowski’s girlfriend thinks we have not seen the last of him in the NFL, though the tight end himself is adamant that he is done with football.

Gronkowski is still just 33 and can still be productive, as evidenced by his 802 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2021. If the Buccaneers need him and Brady calls, it’s pretty tough to imagine him saying no.

Good vibes coming from WR CHRIS GODWIN.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Week One is upon us, and Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin is looking ready.

Godwin is on the Bucs’ practice field and not wearing a brace today, according to reporters on the scene.

Although the Buccaneers haven’t said whether Godwin will play on Sunday night against the Cowboys, from all indications he has made excellent progress since suffering a torn ACL in Week 15 of last season.

Despite missing the final three games of the season, Godwin led the Bucs with 98 catches for 1,103 yards last season. Having him back on the field for Week One would be an enormous boost as the Bucs attempt to get another ring in what could be Tom Brady‘s final season.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Whispers murmur that QB MATTHEW STAFFORD has a bum elbow in his throwing arm.  Coach Sean McVay says he is good to go.  Presumably, both could be true.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Two weeks into training camp, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford‘s elbow was acting up. Less than a week before Week One, he’s doing well.

“There won’t be any limitations,” coach Sean McVay told reporters on Sunday regarding Stafford. “He’ll be ready to go.”

McVay added that he has no concerns about Stafford’s elbow or about the ability to manage the situation all year long, and that he’d have “no hesitation” to have Stafford throw the ball 50 to 55 times, if that’s what the game against the Bills requires.

“I think we’ve got a really good plan in place, no different than really last year,” McVay said. “These are things that he was kind of working through in his own way, but you always want to be cognizant of a pitch count if you will. But he’s feeling good. I tell you what, he’s throwing the ball excellent. He feels good. Everything that I’m seeing is reflective of everything he’s saying to me and so I feel really good about that. You can’t look back on the past. It is something that will be very similar to last year so it’s not really anything that’s different. You got a great competitor that you want to be smart about managing guys’ bodies and for a quarterback, their arm is always something that you want to be smart about. That’ll be the same as what we did last year with him.”

Stafford added his two cents on the situation.

“I feel good,” he told reporters on Sunday. “I feel good. I’m ready to go. No limitations.”

He then stopped short of making a potentially significant admission about the situation.

“[I] still think there’s. . . . I don’t know,” Stafford said. “I feel great. I’m ready to go play, can always be better. [I] can I always try to feel like I’m 21 again, I’ll keep trying, but no I feel really good. [I] feel like I can make every throw. I don’t know what else you need to hear from me.”

Frankly, I’d like to hear what he was going to say after “I still think there’s. . . .”

He also said his program for managing the elbow is “kind of week-to-week,” and that he’s been relying on “exercise-type stuff” to help with the situation.

Whatever he has done, it’s worked. But there’s still the unfinished remark after “I still think there’s . . . .” Which makes me still think there’s reason to keep an eye on the situation.

SEATTLE

GM John Schneider:

“There weren’t a lot of people who knew who Richard Sherman was, or Kam [Chancellor] and K.J. [Wright] or Bobby [Wagner], for that matter. So these guys come out of nowhere.”

— GM John Schneider of the Seahawks, on his no-name, post-Wilson, post-Wagner 2022 team.

DENVER

Notice anything?

Front Office Sports

@FOS

In April, Russell Wilson and Ciara bought this $25M Colorado mansion — the most-expensive single-family home sold in Denver-area history.  🏠

➖ 20,000 sq ft.

➖ 4 bedrooms, 12 bathrooms

➖ 9-car garage

➖ Game room

➖ Basketball court

➖ Theater

➖ Indoor pool

Just four bedrooms?  20,000 square feet and four bedrooms?  12 baths and four bedrooms?

They have two kids of their own and Ciara has a stepson.  Guess any guests stay elsewhere.

But there is always an open bathroom.

BALTIMORE

Peter King with advice for the Ravens AND QB LAMAR JACKSON:

The Deshaun Watson contract, as of this morning, is an outlier. Watson’s five-year $230-million deal was fully guaranteed, shocking most around the league. (As I explained two weeks ago, it’s very clear why Cleveland did it. Watson told the Browns no, and my theory is they huddled and decided the only way to beat out the three southern teams closer to his home and heart would be to totally guarantee whatever contract they’d offer. Which they obviously did, and voila.) But four other top starting veteran quarterbacks have signed deals in 2022—Wilson, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers. (Not counting Jimmy Garoppolo’s deal.) Those four contracts added up to total guarantees of $354 million out of $747 million in new money. That’s an average guarantee of 47.4 percent. Five big contracts. One guaranteed. The other four less than half-guaranteed on average. I can’t see any good argument Baltimore would accept if Jackson insists on a fully guaranteed deal. I don’t know if he’s asking for it. I just know what I’d say if I was Baltimore.

If I’m Jackson, I’d take the exact gamble his predecessor, Joe Flacco, did. Ten years ago, Flacco gambled on himself, refusing to re-up with Baltimore, choosing to play out the last year of his rookie deal. Flacco and the Ravens, amicable throughout, played out the 2012 season, won the Super Bowl, and Flacco was rewarded with the league’s first $20-million-per-year contract in 2013. Maybe Jackson will get something done this week. Or maybe he’ll say, I trust myself, and I think we’ve got a chance to make a deep run this year, and I’ll be worth a lot more next March than I am now. Clock’s running.

BUFFALO

S JORDAN POYER could be back in Buffalo’s lineup for this week’s opener at the Rams.  Adam LaRose of ProFootballRumors.com:

ordan Poyer has remained in the headlines throughout the offseason due to his contract status, but a more positive piece of news has come about today. The veteran safety is expected to be available when the Bills open the season against the Rams on Thursday.

When asked whether or not Poyer would be on the field, head coach Sean McDermott said, “I’ll be surprised if he isn’t”. That would certainly be a welcomed development for Buffalo, though not an entirely unexpected one.

The 31-year-old hyperextended his elbow one month ago, leaving his regular season availability in doubt. While he has yet to practice, it was originally presumed that he would recover in time to start the campaign. Any absence would be critical for the Bills’ secondary, of course; Poyer has become a consistent, highly productive playmaker during his five years with the Bills, earning All-Pro honors in 2021. That performance led to his decision to approach the Bills in April regarding an extension.

Poyer has one year remaining on his current pact, and is due $5.6MM. The fact that his cap hit is nearly double that figure, however, made him a prime candidate for a new deal during the summer. The safety market has seen a major upward trend this offseason, with the likes of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James taking the position to new financial heights. Poyer’s age would prevent the kind of mega-deal those two signed, and the Bills have little in the way of cap space, but a short-term extension could free up some room while reflecting his value to the team.

In the immediate future, Poyer being able to suit up would be particularly helpful for Buffalo considering the absence of All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White. The Bills placed White on the PUP.

– – –

Peter King with thoughts on EDGE VON MILLER:

New Buffalo pass-rusher Von Miller stunned the Rams and maybe even himself by choosing the Bills in free agency. This will be an emotional game for Miller, who told me early in training camp, “Every time I think about it, man, I get sad thinking about not playing with [the Rams] anymore.” At 33, Miller is unlikely to play the 75 percent of the snaps he played with the Rams (in his 12 games last season in L.A.), and his role will be interesting to watch develop. Surely he’ll want to be a big factor Thursday night at SoFi, but coach Sean McDermott very likely has a detailed plan in place for Miller’s use. “We got Von to close games for us,” GM Brandon Beane told me in camp. It’s funny. The Rams thought they’d limit Miller’s snaps last year, but when he got into a late-season groove, they hated taking him off the field because his game is so multi-faceted. I wonder if McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will be tempted to increase his snaps if his health is tip-top.

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots now have an offensive playcaller by committee setup if Coach Bill Belichick is to be believed.  Chris Mason at MassLive.com:

With the season opener in Miami looming, the Patriots are working on a game-plan for the first time since 2011 without Josh McDaniels. They don’t put them together for preseason opponents.

So how would Bill Belichick characterize the offensive coaching staff? Senior football advisor/offensive line Matt Patricia was calling all the first-team plays during the preseason. Is he running the show?

“We have a good staff,” Belichick said on a Sunday morning conference call. “We have a lot of people on both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively, everybody contributes. Ultimately, I have responsibility for everything that happens on the field. So in the end, I’ll take responsibility for that. But we have a lot of great members of the staff. Lot of different ideas coming from different areas — or a collaboration of ideas. So we’ll see how it goes.”

But when it comes time to script offensive plays, who is the one doing that?

“Generally, if you were to talk about a situation like that you’d talk to the entire staff there. Say OK, the first 3rd-and-1 here’s what we’ve practiced. What are we thinking?” Belichick said. “Somebody might say, ‘Let’s do that. Or this would be a real good time to do that and then come back with that on the second 3rd-and-1.’ Those suggestions, those ideas can come from everybody and anybody. And I’d say that’s the way it’s always been.”

What’s gone wrong with New England’s drafting?  Ben Volin of the Boston Globe:

Remember that image of Bill Belichick’s dog, Nike, sitting at a computer in 2020 and looking like he was running the Patriots’ draft?

Doesn’t seem so cute right now.

Among the Patriots’ roster cuts in the past week were both tight ends drafted in the third round in 2020 — Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, who were supposed to be the 2.0 version of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

Those expectations weren’t realistic, but the Patriots certainly expected better production. Asiasi was active for just 10 games in two seasons and finished with two catches for 39 yards and a touchdown. Keene had three catches for 16 yards as he constantly battled injuries.

But it doesn’t seem fair to simply label Asiasi and Keene as draft busts. That puts too much blame on the players and on the front office, and not enough on another area that deserves more scrutiny: Belichick and the coaching staff.

Specifically, their ability to develop young players. Because it just isn’t happening.

That’s why the Patriots had to spend a then-record $175 million guaranteed in free agency in 2021. They didn’t have any young talent ready to step into significant roles.

Last year’s draft, with quarterback Mac Jones, defensive tackle Christian Barmore, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson, offers promise. Then again, Jones is still unproven, Barmore doesn’t impact the stat sheet much, and Stevenson plays the easiest position to draft in the NFL.

“I’m happy we had a great draft last year,” owner Robert Kraft said in March. “And it made up for what happened the previous four years or so.”

Every team whiffs in the NFL Draft, but the “previous four years or so” for the Patriots were especially brutal:

▪ In 2018, they chose Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel over Lamar Jackson and Darius Leonard.

▪ In 2019, they chose N’Keal Harry over Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Terry McLaurin.

▪ Offensive tackle Tony Garcia (2017 third round) and cornerback Duke Dawson (2018 second round) were released without playing a snap.

▪ The top of the 2019 draft class was a disaster: Harry and cornerback Joejuan Williams were busts, and Chase Winovich and Jarrett Stidham were traded.

▪ The Patriots wasted two 2020 third-round picks on tight ends (Asiasi and Keene).

▪ They even wasted a 2020 fifth-round pick on a kicker who never played (Justin Rohrwasser).

These are legitimate NFL prospects from major college football programs, yet very few of them are developing once they get to Foxborough.

Of 15 players drafted in the top three rounds between 2017-20, only four blossomed into productive Patriots: Michel, Wynn, Damien Harris, and Kyle Dugger. And “productive” is relative; Michel was dumped after three years and may be out of the league soon after just four seasons. Harris and Wynn might be entering their final year with the Patriots. Only Dugger can be considered a core player who is likely to get a second contract in New England.

The NFL Draft isn’t just about identifying the right players. It’s also about developing them, and the Patriots don’t seem to be doing much of that. Their coaching staff, a model of stability for most of the 2010s, has been decimated since the Patriots won their last Super Bowl in 2018.

Brian Flores took most of the defensive coaches with him to Miami in 2019. Revered offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia retired after 2019. The position of quarterbacks coach has been a revolving door the last four years — from Mick Lombardi to Jedd Fisch to Bo Hardegree to Joe Judge. Nick Caserio, Belichick’s right-hand man for so long, left for Houston in 2021. Character coach Jack Easterby, who played a crucial role with the team’s young players, left after 2018.

Now longtime running backs coach Ivan Fears is retired, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels took a half-dozen coaches with him to Las Vegas.

Belichick hasn’t developed young players, nor has he developed many young coaches. It forced him to bring back a couple of retreads in Matt Patricia and Judge, and his staff is now filled almost exclusively by people beholden to his: his progeny (Steve and Brian Belichick), former players (Jerod Mayo, Troy Brown, Billy Yates), and coaches who have no other mentors in the NFL (Patricia, Judge, Nick Caley, Mike Pellegrino, Cam Achord). Most were not key parts of the Patriots dynasty from 2010-18.

Are we sure the Patriots’ slapdash coaching staff is putting players in the best position to succeed? Is Belichick too inflexible, or giving up on players too quickly? Does Belichick know how to connect with today’s athletes, who are nearly 50 years younger? Are his coaches worthy of coaching at this level?

To be fair to Belichick, the coaches, and front office, the Patriots still have mined a few diamonds since 2017. Pass rusher Deatrich Wise, linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley, punter Jake Bailey, offensive lineman Mike Onwenu, and Stevenson were all drafted between the fourth and sixth rounds. The Patriots also found a few undrafted free agents: cornerback J.C. Jackson, receiver Jakobi Meyers, receiver Gunner Olszewski, and fullback Jakob Johnson, who was given to the Patriots as part of the NFL’s international program.

Meyers has been a productive slot receiver, though his future is uncertain as he enters the final year of his contract. The other three were not re-signed by the Patriots in free agency, with Jackson the only one who got a significant contract elsewhere.

But the Patriots’ late-round finds are mostly role players, not game-changers. Only two drafted Patriots since 2014 have made the Pro Bowl — one was a punter (Bailey), and one was absurd (Jones getting an invitation because of several injuries last year).

The Patriots’ best late-round pick is also playing for one of their rivals. Receiver Braxton Berrios was a nice selection in the sixth round in 2018, but the Patriots cut him in his rookie training camp, and he has developed into a productive slot receiver for the Jets.

Mid-round picks are the affordable backbones of any championship-caliber team. The Patriots used to find players such as Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, Joe Thuney, and Trey Flowers in the third or fourth rounds. Now they are burning through those picks like scratch tickets.

The Patriots’ terrible drafting forced them to spend $56 million guaranteed on Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last year because they couldn’t do anything with Asiasi and Keene. They signed Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne and this year traded for DeVante Parker because they couldn’t figure it out with Harry. They signed Jalen Mills because Williams and Dawson were busts.

“We had a period of two decades that were unbelievable. We have to find a way to sustain it, keep it going,” Kraft said in March. “It’s the only way you can build your team for long term and consistently that you have a chance of winning, is having a good draft.”

But there’s more to drafting than picking the right players. You also have to have the right coaches to develop them and put them in a position to succeed.

The Patriots don’t seem to be doing either very well.

THIS AND THAT

PETER KING’S PICKS

Peter King has picked the last four Super Bowl winners – and for Super Bowl 57, he crowns the Bills:

How I see the playoff races:

AFC Seeds

1.Buffalo (13-4). Finishing 6-0 in the AFC East makes all the difference when so many contenders have tough division slates.

2. Baltimore (11-6). Decimated by injury in 2021, fairly healthy in 2022—including at quarterback. Important in Joe Burrow’s division.

3. LA Chargers (11-6). Accomplishment of the year: Chargers going 4-2 in the toughest division since the 2002 realignment into eight divisions.

4. Tennessee (10-7). Slight nod over the Colts, by virtue of the Titans averaging 35 a game against Indy in their last three meetings, all wins.

5. Kansas City (11-6). It’s almost pick-‘em with the Chargers, because I think the passing game will be fine post-Tyreek.

6. Cincinnati (10-7). The first-place schedule brings Cincinnati down to earth a bit, but the Bengals will be a threat still.

7. Miami (9-8)*. TuAnon, rejoice. It’s not just Tyreek Hill who’ll make over this offense. It’s Chase Edmonds rushing for 1,200 yards.

*Tiebreaker: Miami over Indianapolis (9-8) and Las Vegas (9-8).

Wild card: Baltimore over Miami, LA Chargers over Cincinnati, Kansas City over Tennessee.

Divisional: Buffalo over Kansas City, LA Chargers over Baltimore.

AFC Championship, at Buffalo: Buffalo 26, LA Chargers 20.

NFC seeds

1. New Orleans (12-5). Note of the week: Saints have beaten Tom Brady’s Bucs in all four regular-season meetings, and none of the four has been a one-score game.

2. Green Bay (12-5). Minnesota threatens, but Aaron Rodgers figures out how to make Romeo Doubs a factor early, and off they go.

3. Philadelphia (11-6). DeVonta Smith/A.J. Brown combined to average 14.1 yards per catch last year. Now Jalen Hurts has them both.

4. LA Rams (10-7). This is still a very good team. But it’s a very good team facing a murderous schedule, starting with the Bills in three days.

5. Minnesota (11-6). Is this the year Eric Kendricks finally gets credit for being a top-five NFL ‘backer?

6. Tampa Bay (10-7). Just too much noise and too many injuries around this team. Talent, and Brady, makes the Bucs still a factor.

7. San Francisco (10-7)*. We interrupt this endless quarterback story to remind you the other 51 players on this roster are pretty good.

*Tiebreaker: San Francisco over Dallas (10-7).

Wild card: Green Bay over San Francisco, Tampa Bay over Philadelphia, LA Rams over Minnesota.

Divisional: New Orleans over Tampa Bay, Green Bay over LA Rams.

NFC Championship, at New Orleans: Green Bay 30, New Orleans 17.

Super Bowl 57, at Glendale, Ariz., Feb. 12, 2023: Buffalo 30, Green Bay 23.

Envelope, please: The 2022 postseason awards, given here, five months before they actually happen:

MVP: 1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo, 2. Justin Herbert, QB, LA Chargers, 3. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore.

Quarterbacks have won the MVP nine straight years and 14 of the past 15 years. Thus QBs going 1-2-3. Recently, MVP has traditionally gone to a quarterback on a top seed. That, plus Allen’s going to have a killer year.

Offensive player: 1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis, 2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo, 3. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota.

I’m projecting Taylor to win the rushing title, and if so, he’d be the third back-to-back rushing champ in the last 20 years (Tomlinson 2006, ’07; Henry 2019, ’20). I think he’ll come very close to matching his 1,811-yard season from last year. I told Taylor in training camp that his coach, Frank Reich, told me, “He has no weaknesses in his game. None. Zero.” Asked him how that made him feel. “It makes me want to go out on Sundays and prove him right,” Taylor said.

Defensive player: 1. Aaron Donald, DT, LA Rams, 2 Odafe Oweh, edge rusher, Baltimore, 3. T.J. Watt, edge rusher, Pittsburgh.

This award, 51 years old, has had three three-time winners: Lawrence Taylor, J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald. (Two-time winners: Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Ray Lewis, Mike Singletary, Joe Greene.) No one’s won it four times. Donald, while not dwelling on history, appreciates it, and a fourth DPOY would ensure his spot on the Mount Rushmore of defensive players in modern NFL history.

Offensive rookie (Overall pick in parentheses):. 1. Chris Olave (11), WR, New Orleans, 2. Dameon Pierce (107), RB, Houston, 3. Evan Neal (7), T, N.Y. Giants.

Olave’s targets entering the season depend on the health and productivity of Michael Thomas and perhaps Jarvis Landry, but I think he’ll be right on their level by mid-October. “I come from Ohio State, and Ohio State’s a professional-ran program,” Olave told me in camp. Ohio State and LSU: Cradles of NFL receivers who hit the ground running in the pros.

Defensive rookie (Overall pick in parentheses): 1. Sauce Gardner (4), CB, N.Y. Jets, 2. Aidan Hutchinson (2), DE, Detroit, 3. Jordan Davis (13), DL, Philadelphia.

A bit of a shot in the dark, because, unfortunately, corners have to have picks to win this award. Gardner will have some high-profile matchups, with the Jets facing Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and whoever Aaron Rodgers is throwing to a total of seven games.

Coach: 1. John Harbaugh, Baltimore, 2. Dennis Allen, New Orleans, 3. Brandon Staley, LA Chargers.

This is an impossible category to project on Labor Day, because so many other elements than wins factor in. Last year, Mike Vrabel survived a season with the most active players in NFL history to win the top AFC seed. Something like that happens, and the voting can be messed up. Harbaugh could do it if the Ravens are the only team to go from worst (in the AFC North) to first in 2022.

Comeback Player: 1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina, 2. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City, 3. QB Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans.

McCaffrey’s a heavy favorite in my book, because when you’ve missed 13 and 10 games the past two years after playing your first 48 without injury, and you were a sensation in those 48, pretty much all you’ve got to do in year six is stay healthy for 17 weeks. Production will follow. That’s the big question, staying healthy. But I think McCaffery’s got a good shot to do so.

Other predictions:

Game 272: The final game of the regular season, for all the marbles in the AFC North, will pit 10-6 Baltimore at 10-6 Cincinnati. There’s some drama. Ravens win, cop the second seed in the AFC, send Bengals on the road in the playoffs.

Surprise records: Detroit 7-10, New England 7-10, Jacksonville 7-10.

QB changes: Kenny Pickett for Mitchell Trubisky in mid-October, Drew Lock yo-yos with Geno Smith starting in late October, Jimmy Garoppolo for Trey Lance prior to facing Kansas City in week seven, Desmond Ridder for Marcus Mariota in November, Tyrod Taylor for Daniel Jones in December. A rusty Deshaun Watson goes 3-3 in his six late-season post-suspension games in Cleveland. These things happen when you haven’t played a game of football in 100 weeks.

Non-QB changes: Jalen Hurts is solid as a rock in Philadelphia, Davis Mills has a B season playing 17 games in Houston, Carson Wentz survives some struggles to play a full year in Washington.

FANTASY DRAFT ADVICE

The DB has a draft tonight – and Scott Pionowski of YahooSports.com has some wide-ranging advice:

Maybe you spend your summer on vacation, having fun, doing outdoors stuff, traveling about. Maybe you haven’t done much fantasy prep. This is where I come in. Here are observations and ideas about the fantasy player pool to help you in this final, critical draft weekend. And here’s also a more draft-centric piece to help you in the coming hours.

Running Back Thoughts

• Dameon Pierce was the summer’s big winner, a fourth-round pick who quickly earned a featured job in Houston. The Texans should be better than many think; Davis Mills is a competent second-year quarterback, and the offensive line should at least be average — perhaps better than average.

• I lean Jonathan Taylor over Christian McCaffrey at the 1.01 slot, but it’s close. Taylor has never missed a practice or game since he started playing football, all levels. His floor is higher. McCaffrey’s upside can’t be ignored, though; if you assumed every back played a full schedule (which obviously won’t happen, but stick with me), CMC would be the gigantic favorite to outscore everybody.

• I’d rather be a year early than a year late, for both breakouts and fallbacks. So I’m green light on Javonte Williams, but red light on Derrick Henry.

• Damien Harris lived in the red zone last year, but Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots back with the biggest upside.

• Miles Sanders was comically unlucky with touchdowns this year, but he’s had a rough summer and the Eagles have a crowded running back room. They also have Jalen Hurts, an aggressive running quarterback. I was pro-Sanders in the spring, but I’ve flipped that take in August.

•The Raiders don’t have a long-term investment in Josh Jacobs, and there’s a new coaching staff there. The run blocking could be a problem all year.

• The Chiefs kept four running backs, which tells you they have low expectations for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Forget his draft pedigree, it doesn’t mean much now.

• D’Andre Swift said he wants 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards, but most players project their future with wide optimism. Just be cognizant that this team will always like Jamaal Williams, too.

• The Packers only have two running backs, which means Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can both pay off at their ADP. I wouldn’t want to draft them on the same fantasy roster, but I’ll consider each of them in my drafts. In many instances, Jones is a perfect second-round pick.

• Alvin Kamara had poor efficiency last year and he’s without the quarterback and head coach who used him perfectly. It’s also the worst offensive line the Saints have had since Kamara turned pro, and although Kamara’s 2022 suspension risk has come down in recent months, it’s still greater than zero.

• Everyone should know this already, but no matter what RB build you prefer (Robust RB, Anchor RB, Zero RB), your bench should be overflowing with plausible upside candidates. What player is “one news item away” from blasting off to the moon? More than any other position, running back is the fantasy spot where ordinary talent can become fantasy royalty if the usage is consistent and projectable.

• Follow the money — the Dolphins want Chase Edmonds to be the guy.

• I’m fine with Antonio Gibson if he’s one of your bench players. He’s always maintained an interesting upside, even when it looked like Brian Robinson would be the Week 1 starter. (Get better soon, Brian Robinson. You got this, man.)

• It’s been a messy summer for Cam Akers, and we always worry about backs with Achilles injuries in recent history. Darrell Henderson has been one of my most common draftees.

• Tony Pollard looks like the best current back in Dallas, but the Pokes are likely to play to Ezekiel Elliott’s legacy and contract. Also, remember Dallas lost star LT Tyron Smith in late August.

Wide Receiver Thoughts

• My most common roster build is one star running back I can hang my hat on (a first- or second-round pick), and then a bunch of receivers. I want the best receiver room in my league. I want receivers who start themselves; I don’t want to try to guess what week the WR45 is going to pop.

• Michael Pittman is a perfect third-round pick, entering a target hog entering Year 3. Matt Ryan might not be great, but he’s better than Carson Wentz.

• Speaking of Wentz, no matter what you think of him, he’s still the best QB Terry McLaurin has played with. And that angle is even more fun when you think of DJ Moore in Carolina; Moore is my favorite fourth-round pick when he’s available there.

• George Pickens should be a star someday, and I’m optimistic about where Chris Olave and Drake London are headed. I could see Treylon Burks being useful in the second half of the year. But if you’re looking for this year’s Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, stop; they were outliers. I’d rather draft the Year 2 wideouts, not the rookies.

• You want receivers who have skill sets that neatly match the skills of their quarterback. You want cohesion in preferred routes. Amon-Ra St. Brown checks this box, running routes that are Jared Goff-friendly. But Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston might be a shaky connection.

• You can take Justin Jefferson as early as you want, and I’ll salute the pick.

• Mike Evans has lived in the end zone (27 spikes) since Tom Brady came to town. That’s not going away. Julio Jones is more of a tight-end these days, a big target for the middle of the field. Rob Gronkowski’s 2021 numbers could make sense for Julio’s 2022 projection.

• Follow the money — the Jaguars want Christian Kirk to be the guy.

• If boring value is your jam, Adam Thielen waits for you. You won’t earn hipster cred when you take him, but he can easily meet or exceed returns on his ADP. Those tight-spacing touchdowns are an easy button Minnesota will continue to press. (If you want upscale Boring Value Jam, Brandon Cooks is waiting.)

• The Davante Adams-Aaron Rodgers connection will be sorely missed, but Adams and Derek Carr were pinball wizards back in their Fresno State days. This is still a wheels-up situation.

• Mike Williams outscored Keenan Allen last year and still is an eyelash more ADP-affordable now. I don’t expect Allen to crater, but the value shopper angle is Williams.

• Rashod Bateman can be a tricky evaluation (lovely college stats, curious measurable metrics), but the Ravens shoved all-in on Bateman when they traded Hollywood Brown and did little to help an otherwise-thin receiver room. Baltimore will have a narrow passing tree, even if rookie tight end Isiah Likely becomes a thing.

• The industry is more optimistic about Chris Godwin’s seamless return, and that’s fine. Draft who you trust. I love the player, but I would not want to consider Godwin until my WR starting room was filled.

• DeAndre Hopkins opens with a six-game suspension and his efficiency had leaks last year. If I’m a year early to the decline, fine — but I can’t draft Hopkins proactively.

• Often it’s a case of loving the player, hating the ADP. Deebo Samuel fits that suit; my favorite player I’m unlikely to draft. Last year’s rushing production can only go down, and perhaps Trey Lance winds up clicking more with George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk.

Tight End Thoughts

• No, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski is coming back, though it would be fun. I wouldn’t use a roster spot on him unless you are in a league with enormous bench space.

• Cole Kmet has a locked-in target share, and his touchdown rate should normalize now that goal-line disruptor Jimmy Graham is gone.

• Dalton Schultz doesn’t have a silly upside, but he’s a protected No. 2 target in Dallas, tied to a plus quarterback. And every opponent will be more focused on CeeDee Lamb.

• I am generally not a vanity tight-end drafter, but I might have to get a late FOMO share on Kyle Pitts. Last year’s touchdown count was a stone fluke. There’s no good way to defend Pitts, and he doesn’t turn 22 until October.

• Austin Hooper was a boring but useful 70-catch guy in his Atlanta days. Tennessee needs him to be that again.

• David Njoku has one top-10 season on the resume, and he’s at worst the second passing option in Cleveland. Jacoby Brissett is a lesser-standing QB, but his skills match up with how Njoku commonly wins.

• Dallas Goedert’s efficiency is a dream. Maybe this will click with Jalen Hurts this year, maybe not. I have some Goedert shares, just in case. And if Gardner Minshew ever plays (he fueled Goedert’s best game last year), we’re headed to the moon.

• It was an up-and-down summer for Albert Okwuegbunam, but I saw more good than bad. If you want a juicy, upside tight end pick for late rounds, Albert O servers a marker. Rookie Greg Dulcich won’t be ready for the first month.

• The Patriots’ passing game is super-crowded, and Hunter Henry is unlikely to get last year’s touchdown deodorant.

Quarterback Thoughts

• Josh Allen is a dream, but I generally don’t like my roster builds when I take an early vanity QB. I’ll let someone else break the seal.

• Russell Wilson is doing what Tom Brady did: He’s getting a team and talent upgrade at the perfect time. A monster year is likely.

• Aaron Rodgers might be the two-time defending MVP, but his ordinary receiver room makes him undraftable for me.

• I can’t imagine every talent evaluator was wrong on Trevor Lawrence. Give the kid a mulligan; Urban Meyer had no idea what he was doing. Jacksonville should be a frisky 6-11 or 7-10 this year, frisky and in many ways, fantasy fun.

• I see the upside for Trey Lance (you may have heard a running quarterback is a cheat code), but I won’t draft him like he’s a sure thing. He’s thrown fewer than 400 passes in his last four collective seasons. Sure, we’ve seen monster sophomore breakouts at this position, they’re common. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, even Wentz waves hello. But all of them had more of a resume to point to than Lance does. And the Jimmy Garoppolo re-signing should give you a little pause too.

Bottom line, quarterback is the easiest fantasy position to solve, and I see plenty of other quarterbacks who fit my plans more than Lance. If you disagree, no worries — that’s why we have a game.

• Kirk Cousins didn’t get along with Mike Zimmer, it’s well known. Now Cousins gets to riff with Kevin O’Connell, fresh off the Sean McVay tree. This offense is receiving an exciting remodel at the perfect time. Minnesota’s also an interesting prop team, at plus odds to win the NFC North and probably a good ticket for over 9.5 wins. The schedule starts rough, but doesn’t look daunting overall.

• Justin Fields needs a lot more help in Chicago, but the coaching can’t be any worse. If you miss out on the exciting mobile QBs in the front of the draft, Fields at least offers some of the same plausible upside.

• If you’re one of the latest teams in your league to grab a starting quarterback, be first to get your second quarterback.