AROUND THE NFL
Daily Briefing
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Bill Belichick said the Patriots have had vaccinated players get COVID. His comments drew the ire of the NFL’s Chief Medical Officer. Matt Votour of MassLive.com:
After Bill Belichick told the media the reason he cut Cam Newton wasn’t related to the quarterback’s decision not to be vaccinated, the New England Patriots coach questioned the overall effectiveness of vaccination for NFL players.
NFL Chief Medical Officer Allen Sills became Belichick’s highest-profile critic on the topic in an interview with NFL.com’s Judy Battista.
“We released our data last week from the first three weeks of August, and that data has consistently shown higher rates of infection in unvaccinated players than in vaccinated players. That was true at intake when they first came into training camp and it was true during that first three-week period of August that we released,” he said. “From a medical perspective, go to any major medical center in the country and as you walk around, those patients who are hospitalized, those who are in the ICU, you see the evidence the vaccines are working.
“We know that vaccines are working. What we are seeing are some vaccinated people who test positive. But their illness tends to be very short and very mild, and that’s exactly what the vaccines were designed to do,” he continued. “Let’s all remember the vaccines were designed to prevent serious illness, hospitalization and death. They’re doing a terrific job of that so far, not only in the NFL where we haven’t seen any serious cases but in society as a whole.”
The data Sills is referring to is: Between Aug. 1-21 the NFL had 68 positive results among 7,190 tests, a positivity rate of 0.95 percent. Vaccinated players were positive at a rate of 0.3 percent, while unvaccinated tested positive at 2.2 percent, a rate seven times higher.
Unvaccinated players are tested daily. Vaccinated players were tested every 14 days during the timetable when that data was collected. They’ll be tested every seven days going forward.
Belichick’s comments from Wednesday’s press conference were as follows:
“I would just point out that — I don’t know what the number is, you guys can look it up. You have access to a lot of information. But the number of players and coaches and staff members that have been infected by COVID in this training camp (referencing the entire NFL, not just the Patriots) that have been vaccinated is a pretty high number. I wouldn’t lose sight of that.”
Pushed on the topic again with another question, Belichick continued:
“We have other players on the team who aren’t vaccinated, as does probably every other team in the league. We’ve had minimal, but throughout the league, there have been a number, a quite high number I would say, of players who have had the virus who have been vaccinated. Your implication that vaccination solves every problem, that has not been substantiated based on what’s happened in training camp this year.”
PETER KING PREDICTS
He’s got Rams over Bills – a 2nd straight team winning the Super Bowl in its home stadium.
I’m picking a Rams-Bills Super Bowl. Obvious rejoinder: What’s wrong with Kansas City and Tampa Bay? You had them ranked 1-2 in the spring. The answer is, Nothing. I really liked the Bills and Rams when I went to their camps. I think it’s Buffalo’s breakthrough year, and I think Matthew Stafford gives the Rams the kind of offensive confidence and explosiveness they haven’t had since we all thought Jared Goff was The Answer, in early 2018. More about each in a moment, and some explanations.
Here’s how I see the pennant races, with the wild cards asterisked and teams not in the playoffs last year marked with a # sign:
AFC Seeds
1 Buffalo
2 Kansas City
3 Tennessee
4 Cleveland
5 New England*#
6 L.A. Chargers*#
7 Baltimore*
Wild Card: Kansas City over Baltimore, Chargers over Tennessee, New England over Cleveland.
Divisional: Buffalo over L.A. Chargers, Kansas City over New England.
Conference: Buffalo 27, Kansas City 25.
NFC Seeds
1 Tampa Bay
2 Green Bay
3 L.A. Rams
4 Dallas#
5 San Francisco*#
6 New Orleans*
7 Seattle*
Wild Card: Green Bay over Seattle, L.A. Rams over New Orleans, San Francisco over Dallas.
Divisional: Tampa Bay over San Francisco, L.A. Rams over Green Bay.
Conference: L.A. Rams 30, Tampa Bay 27.
Super Bowl LVI, at Los Angeles, Feb. 13, 2022: L.A. Rams 33, Buffalo 24.
His reasoning about various teams is located appropriately below
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NFC NORTH
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GREEN BAY
The Packers seem to have brought their relationship with QB AARON RODGERS back from the dead – per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com by way of Grey Papke of Larry Brown Sports:
After an offseason of turmoil, it sounds like Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are settling into their mutual responsibilities comfortably.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said his understanding was that the situation between Rodgers and the Packers had improved significantly, and the two sides were working fine together despite what was said and done during the offseason.
“From what I know of the Packers situation right now, it is absolutely fine,” Rapoport said. “It’s not where it was a couple months ago with Rodgers rebelling. … It is in a much better place.”
To be clear, improvement does not make things perfect, and Rodgers continues to hint that he has some behind-the-scenes issues with the front office. That said, the team has brought in some players at his request, and Rodgers seems very pleased with that.
It may also help Rodgers that he appears likely to leave the Packers after the season, which is what he sought during the offseason. With that in mind, he can put his head down, go as far as he can with the team, and sort out his future once the season ends.
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MINNESOTA
Why did the Eagles try to trade TE DALLAS GOEDERT, and why did the Vikings prefer TE CHRIS HERNDON of the Jets? TheHeavy.com:
Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. figured to play a significant role in the team’s offense this year. He was penned as a breakout candidate in his first year as the team’s true TE1.
So when Smith underwent meniscus surgery that proved to be season-ending, the Vikings hit the phones and put out feelers for a replacement.
The Philadelphia Eagles caught wind of the Vikings’ needs and offered trading tight end Dallas Goedert.
“According to multiple league sources, (Eagles general manager Howie Roseman) discussed moving Goedert in a trade with the Vikings,” Fansided’s Matt Lombardo reported.
The Vikings instead traded a fourth-round pick to the New York Jets in exchange for third-year tight end Chris Herndon and a sixth-rounder.
Goedert is a much more proven tight end in the league, leaving many to wonder why a deal didn’t happen with the Eagles.
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NFC EAST
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DALLAS
The Cowboys will be without G ZACK MARTIN for Thursday night in Tampa as he has run afoul of the NFL’s COVID protocols. Todd Archer of ESPN.com:
The Dallas Cowboys will be without Zack Martin for Thursday’s season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the six-time Pro Bowl right guard tested positive for the coronavirus and landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Because of the return-to-play protocols, Martin will not be cleared in time to play, although he is vaccinated. A fully vaccinated player can return to play in five days if he does not have symptoms following two negative tests separated by 24 hours. An unvaccinated player faces at least a 10-day quarantine.
“He’s frustrated obviously,” coach Mike McCarthy said. “But hey, this is the world we live in right now.”
The loss of Martin is a huge blow for an offense that did not take a snap fully together in the preseason — the Cowboys held out quarterback Dak Prescott because of a shoulder strain — and will face a Buccaneers run defense that was the best in the NFL last season.
“Zack’s our best player on our offense. I mean most runs, they coming back behind him,” running back Ezekiel Elliott said. “It’s disappointing but you can’t harp on it, can’t let it be more than what it is. I mean, definitely going to miss him, definitely wish he was out there, but we still have a game to go play and we got to try and get the job done.”
The projected starting offensive line — Tyron Smith, Connor Williams, Tyler Biadasz, Martin and La’el Collins — played just three series together in four preseason games.
With Martin out, Connor McGovern would start at right guard. He started eight games last season (six of which came when Martin was out because of injury). Collins is dealing with a stinger issue but has been cleared to return to practice Sunday, as will Williams, who has missed the past two weeks after a stint on the COVID-19 list as well.
Backup offensive lineman Brandon Knight has been classified as a high-risk close contact and has also been placed on the list, while wide receiver Noah Brown remains on the list.
The Cowboys have had nine players on the COVID-19 list so far, which is more than they had all of last season.
Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb came off the list last week. He said he lost taste and smell for about a week and to make up for the missed practices he ran around his neighborhood or a nearby field.
“I feel a lot better now,” said Lamb, who will play Thursday.
He said he knew he was improving while brushing his teeth.
“I literally stopped and looked in the mirror and was like, ‘Whoa. OK.’ I could taste it again,” he said. “It was mint. Imagine not tasting mint for a week and then just understanding like, wow, you really can’t taste anything. It’s real. Take it serious, bro. That’s my message.”
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WASHINGTON
Peter King on the thinking that brought QB RYAN FITZPATRICK to Washington:
When coach Ron Rivera and the Washington personnel staff considered its quarterback options in the offseason, per Silver, WFT thought it had a solid offer on the table for Matthew Stafford—including its 2021 first-round and third-round picks. Then the Rams blew that offer out of the water, and there was no way Washington could match or exceed an offer of a prospective long-term QB (no matter what you think of Jared Goff) plus the draft-choice haul the Rams sent to Detroit. So WFT settled for a one-year, $10-million deal with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick’s had an incredible recent run—not so incredible in terms of greatness, but in terms of frequent-flier miles. This will be the seventh team he’s started for in the last 10 seasons, since 2012. I looked at the players, logically, he was competing with to be Washington’s starter, the pool that Washington could have chosen from once last season ended. And I like Washington’s choice.
The prime contenders to the Washington QB job were Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, Cam Newton (before he re-upped with New England), Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith. Comparing Fitzpatrick to them in significant QB categories, from 2012 to 2020:
Yards per attempt:
Fitzpatrick 7.26, Newton 7.22, Smith 7.15, Dalton 7.10, Taylor 7.01, Foles 6.84.
Starts:
Dalton 126, Newton 123, Smith 101, Fitzpatrick 94, Foles 55, Taylor 47.
Yards:
Dalton 30,366, Newton, 27,647, Fitzpatrick 24,041, Smith 23,107, Foles 13,753, Taylor 9,752.
TD-Int Differential:
Dalton +85, Smith +80, New ton +68, Fitzpatrick +51, Foles +38, Taylor +34.
I agree with Washington’s decision to not pillage the future and instead wait to see the 2022 rookie crop and available veterans (Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, etc.).
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NFC SOUTH
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TAMPA BAY
Peter King’s explanation as to why he didn’t pick the Buccaneers to repeat is no explanation:
Toughest call: not picking Tampa in the NFC. I can’t tell you what I don’t like about Tampa Bay, because there’s not much to quibble with about the ’21 Bucs. It’s a better team, assuming all minds are right, than the ’20 Bucs, winners of the Super Bowl by 22 points. As I’ll make clear, this is more about liking the Rams than disliking the Bucs. I will not be remotely surprised if the Bucs make it back to a second straight Super Bowl. I get the primary reasons—every significant player returns, Tom Brady’s back, Brady’s not going to let complacency ooze in, and Brady’s so freaky he’s not going to hit the age wall at 44—but there’s another one. Edge-rusher Shaq Barrett says lots of guys on defense want their 15 minutes of greatness too. Even after playing great in the Super Bowl, Barrett told me this summer, “I left too many plays on the field. If I make those plays, I’m Super Bowl MVP. Our hunger actually is coming from the fact we know everybody’s back. We all want to find a way to get on the field so our guys are gonna come out here and show it every day so they can carve a role out on the offense and defense for themselves. Coach [Bruce Arians] is like, ‘You can’t come to the field if you ain’t hungry and ready to go to prove yourself every day.’ “ Sure sounds good.
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NFC WEST
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SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers have taken a flyer on CB JOSH NORMAN. Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com:
A week before they open the season with a game at the Lions, the 49ers have added a veteran presence in the secondary.
Via Jay Glazer of FOX, the 49ers have signed cornerback Josh Norman to a one-year deal.
A Pro Bowler and an All-Pro in 2015 with the Panthers, Norman had the franchise tag applied applied by Carolina in early 2016 before they rescinded it. He promptly signed a multi-year deal with Washington worth $15 million per year, playing there from 2016 through 2019. He played for the Bills in 2020, appearing in nine games with three starts.
Norman, 33, had been a free agent for most of the offseason.
The starters in San Francisco are Jason Verrett and Emmanuel Moseley.
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
Peter King buys into QB MATTHEW STAFFORD being a new and improved version from the one we saw for the past decade – and that’s why he has the Rams reigning in February:
2. Bullish on the Rams. Let me give you an illustration about where the Rams have been, and where I think they’re going. The best iteration of the Sean McVay Rams came in the first 12 games of 2018. Remember the bombs-away Rams? With Goff proving (or so we thought) what a good deep-ball thrower he was, particularly on that Thursday night at the Coliseum when he strafed the Vikings? The Rams then, and the Rams since:
The first 12 games of 2018: Rams 11-1, averaging 34.9 points per game.
The 41 games since (including playoffs): Rams 24-17, averaging 23.9 points per game.
I think we’re going to see a Rams offense like that one in 2018. A couple of differences between then and now. That year, the Rams had the league’s 19th-rated defense. This year, the Rams are coming off a season when they had the top-rated defense in the league. Gone is coordinator Brandon Staley, who got the Chargers’ head job, but the three best defensive players are back: all-world Aaron Donald and one of the game’s best cornerback tandems, Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. And the quarterback is new and improved over last year’s model.
Simply put, Matthew Stafford gives McVay, one of the smartest offensive brains in the game, the first chance in his five seasons as coach to have confidence in calling everything on his play sheet. Everything. Stafford has the arm to make every throw, and the brain to know when to make one throw versus another. One coach who has faced Stafford multiple times told me on my camp tour he thinks the marriage between Stafford and McVay will work well. “Stafford with Sean is going to be fantastic,” this coach said. “Sean’s been waiting for a guy who can execute everything he wants to call.” As I wrote in my training camp report on the Rams a month ago, McVay saw Goff as a student, and he sees Stafford as a peer. In his four months inside the Rams’ building, Stafford has become almost an extension of the coaching staff, and he’s done it organically, without usurping anyone’s authority. He trades ideas with McVay about the pass game. When the Rams traded for running back Sony Michel, it was Stafford, on a day off, who took it on himself to mentor Michel personally with a deep-dive into the offense. Last week, the Rams had their players vote for two offensive, two defensive and one special-teams captains. There were two unanimous picks: Donald, of course. And Stafford. That’s the impact he’s made in his first four months on the team.
So it’s the honeymoon period. I like taking teams on the way up, such as Tampa Bay last year. The Rams are on the way up. Now, they’re top-heavy, and a couple of major non-quarterback injuries would hurt the Rams more than, say, the Bucs. They’re playing with fire at left tackle in a 17-game season, with Andrew Whitworth turning 40 in December. You don’t find many 40-year-old left tackles in football. In fact, I can’t think of a single one in recent history. Overall, they’re thin. The Rams will need some luck from the injury gods to be playing February football at home. But I’ll take my chances with them.
3. Second straight team winning the Super Bowl at home—after it never happening before. I’m curious what kind of home-field advantage the Rams will have. Will Angelenos jump on the bandwagon, which L.A. is very good at doing? My guess is that by January, when the Rams have a home playoff game or two, front-running fans will be pretty revved up about their team.
And this:
8. I won’t shock you with the awards. Here goes:
• MVP: 1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams; 2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills; 3. Tom Brady, QB, Bucs.
A healthy Stafford, in a 17-game season and with that Rams backfield, could be the first quarterback to throw for 6,000 yards in a year.
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AFC EAST
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BUFFALO
Why the Bills are AFC kings to be from Peter King:
4. It’s time for the Bills . . . assuming they keep Covid at bay. Tough pick here, because the Bills lost to KC by nine and 14 last year and we still don’t have proof that the Achilles heel of the Buffalo franchise, the pass rush, is any good. At least one of the three high edge picks in the last two drafts—A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham—needs to strike fear into the hearts of offensive coordinators by midseason. Big, big need.
Even with an abysmal pass-rush last year, the Bills were 15th in the league in defense. I trust Sean McDermott to make that ranking appreciably better. So much of Buffalo’s fate rests with Josh Allen. I like that. Let’s examine Allen’s path to this moment. He played at a small California high school and wasn’t recruited by a single major-college program. He spent a year at a California JuCo. He went to a smaller college program, Wyoming. He was hurt parts of his first two years in Buffalo. Last year, his first healthy season with a top receiver group, his completion percentage went up 10 percentage points, he got the Bills to the AFC title game, and earned one of the biggest deals in NFL history.
What hasn’t he done well? Performed well late against the best team in AFC. Buffalo lost to Kansas City twice last year, never led either game in the second half, and Allen led the team to only two touchdowns in the two second halves against KC. In the offseason, Allen worked on control. It’s clear he’s talented enough, throwing and running, to be great for a long time. But even he admits he’s tried to do too much late in games early in his career. “Control” is a bit of an abstract term here, but to Allen it means ratcheting down the emotions, don’t force anything, trust the people around you more. The addition of the wily Emmanuel Sanders (if he can give Buffalo a good year at 34) and emergence of Jake Kumerow as a big target—supplementing Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley—mean this is the deepest receiver group the Bills have had in years.
Allen is 25. After playing off-off Broadway as a quarterback for years, now he understands what it takes to win in the big time. Now he’s just got to do it. I’m betting he’s ready.
As for Covid, the Bills have had their issues; I could tell on my visit to camp in August it’s still something that could plague this team, because guys like Beasley won’t back down from their I’m-not-getting-vaxxed stances. They’d better be careful. A positive test by an unvaccinated player on, say, a Friday puts him out for two games. It’s football roulette. I think the Bills can overcome it, but they don’t sell insurance for these kinds of things.
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NEW ENGLAND
A testament to the mental acuity of QB MAC JONES.
Former New England Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich shared a story recently that is quite unflattering for Cam Newton, Grey Papke of Larry Brown Sports reports.
On a recent edition of “The Dan and Ninko Show,” Ninkovich said he’d been told by “inside sources” that rookie quarterback Mac Jones had been helping Newton learn the playbook, as the rookie had a better understanding of it than Newton did.
“From everything that I understand now, Mac was basically helping Cam learn the playbook,” Ninkovich said. “Mac was having less mental errors and having a better understanding of the offense. We didn’t see Cam run any two-minute (drill), we didn’t see him run any no-huddle. You have to run no-huddle. That’s vital.”
If true, it adds further context behind why the Patriots opted to go with Jones instead of Newton for 2021. It’s clear that New England’s players are fully behind Jones, and that would make sense if he simply understood the offense better.
This from Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com on Newton’s lack of a contract:
On Friday, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was asked whether he has spoken to Patriots coach Bill Belichick about free-agent quarterback Cam Newton. Jones, in a roundabout way, said that Newton can be evaluated without speaking to Belichick.
As one source with extensive experience evaluating NFL personnel explained it, the current issue with Cam is his history of injuries and a belief that he’s not throwing the ball very well.
This same source bristled loudly at former Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich’s recent suggestion that Newton didn’t understand the playbook, and that a rookie quarterback had to help him learn it. Newton was with the Patriots throughout 2020. They chose to re-sign him. Less than two weeks ago, Newton was described by Bill Belichick as the starter. (Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said the same thing, a day earlier.)
The source believes that a bunch of former Patriots players (such as Ninkovich) had a hard time with Tom Brady leaving and Cam Newton replacing Brady. Also, pointing to potential red herrings like playbook issues or distractions from music being played at practice cover up the basic truth. Cam was the starter until he failed to comply with a fairly basic aspect of the rule applicable to unvaccinated players. Thus, the decision to make him not the starter flowed directly from his vaccination status and the ever-present possibility that he won’t be available to play or to practice.
His vaccination status surely will be an issue moving forward. At this point in his career, he’s not so clearly dominant that a team would welcome an unvaccinated Cam Newton into the locker room. Even if he’s vaccinated, there’s no clear path to a roster spot with any team.
That’s why his best plan at this point would be to get vaccinated (for a variety of good reasons), stay in shape, and wait for an injury. The question then will become whether the team is content to go “next man up” with a player who is a backup for a reason, or roll the dice on the first pick in the 2011 draft and the 2015 NFL MVP.
We never heard of any significant issues involving Newton and mental acuity when we spoke to a Panthers coach about him. And the points Florio makes may be true.
That said, Newton’s style of play is unique to the NFL with his best games coming when he is a threat to make power runs. He’s not someone you could plug in and play to a traditional offense on short notice. And his passing skills are not now such that he can throw the ball down the field without the threat of his running.
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NEW YORK JETS
Tony Romo is all in on QB ZACH WILSON:
“I think Zach Wilson is going to be in the discussion as one of the top three to five quarterbacks [in the NFL] very quickly. I think he’s unbelievable.”
—Tony Romo, in a CBS conference call with reporters last week, on the Jets’ new quarterback.
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THIS AND THAT
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ART McNALLY IS GOING TO THE HALL OF FAME
Peter King:
Art McNally Gets His Due
The former field judge, referee, director of officiating and conscience of officiation (my words), who worked the NFL’s rules game for a half-century, was nominated as the 2022 contributor for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. If he gets 80 percent of the vote from the 49 Hall voters when ballots are cast shortly before the Super Bowl next February, McNally will be the first on-field official in the 102-year history of the NFL to be enshrined. The NFL’s Sunday operations center officiating command center is called Art McNally GameDay Central.
Two reasons why McNally deserves this, and has deserved it for years. I’ve covered the NFL for 38 seasons now, and no single person in any aspect of the league has had more integrity than McNally. No one distrusted him, and I mean no one. That’s the most important thing for an official, and for an officiating department. Two: He modernized officiating. Starting in 1968, he installed a program to study and grade officials, using the same kind of film analysis that coaches used to evaluate player. He pushed for replay and other forms of technology (such as wireless microphones on refs) to make the game more transparent to fans and viewers). The people you see on TV explaining the rules today, led by Mike Pereira and Dean Blandino, think he’s the most important person in the history of NFL officiating.
Lots of contributors to the game—owners, officials, GMs—deserve consideration for the Hall, but none more than McNally. Good choice by the contributors subcommittee.
And this:
“It was probably the most emotional day that officials around the country have had in a long time. I don’t think you realize what this means for us. The disrespect we seem to have gotten over time when it comes to the Hall of Fame is hurtful. It makes you feel like you’re not a part of a game that, quite frankly, couldn’t be played without us.”
—Former NFL on-field official and senior VP of officiating Mike Pereira, now a rules analyst for Fox, to Clark Judge of Talk of Fame Network, on last week’s nomination of former NFL officiating czar Art McNally to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
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