The Daily Briefing Saturday, February 11, 2023

We see this as a very close game that will have an average score – say both teams in the 20s.  The Eagles may have a slightly better roster, the Chiefs have a somewhat better QB.  We’ll go with MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, call it 24-23.

Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com throws cold water on our pick:

In the 21st Century, the Super Bowl has not been a pleasant experience for winners of the regular-season Most Valuable Player award.

Nine times this century the winner of the regular-season MVP has played in that season’s Super Bowl, and nine times his team lost.

Now Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who won the MVP on Thursday night, will play in Super Bowl LVII. Mahomes will try to avoid the fate of Tom Brady in 2017, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, Peyton Manning in 2013, Peyton Manning in 2009, Tom Brady in 2007, Shaun Alexander in 2005, Rich Gannon in 2002 and Kurt Warner in 2001, all of whom won the regular-season MVP but lost that season’s Super Bowl.

The regular-season MVP winning the Super Bowl used to be commonplace: Kurt Warner did it in 1999, Terrell Davis in 1998, Brett Favre in 1996, Steve Young in 1994, Emmitt Smith in 1993, Joe Montana in 1989, Lawrence Taylor in 1986, Mark Moseley in 1982, Terry Bradshaw in 1978 and Bart Starr in 1966.

But since 2000, no one has ended the season with both the MVP trophy and a Super Bowl ring. Perhaps Mahomes will.

PHILADELPHIA

Stoic is not a word used to describe Nick Sirianni.  Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com:

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni has taken some criticism for his boisterous celebrations on the sideline this season, but Sirianni doesn’t care.

Sirianni said at a Super Bowl media appearance that he’s glad to be known as a coach whose approach to the game is emotional, rather than detached.

“I don’t apologize for having fun,” Sirianni said, via the Washington Post. “This is too hard not to have fun, and I do this because I love it. I chose this profession because I love it. It is a little bit blown out of proportion with all of those things. I loved playing football, and I love coaching it. I’m not going to hide my emotions at any point.”

Having Sirianni as coach has been plenty fun for the Eagles and their fans, and Super Bowl Sunday may be the most fun day yet.

WASHINGTON

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com reports that Josh Harris is in play as the possible owner of Washington’s NFL franchise.

Many won’t believe it until they see a new owner holding the keys and the pink slip while standing with a foot on Daniel Snyder’s chest. Nevertheless, the effort to sell the Commanders is moving forward.

TheAthletic.com reported on Friday that Josh Harris, who already owns multiple sports franchises, recently toured the Commanders facility. The Washington Post confirmed that report, adding that at least one other unnamed prospective buyer has done the same.

The item from TheAthletic.com also includes an important point of clarification. The first official round of bids is due in a few weeks. Prior reports had indicated that initial bids already had been made; however, those were “non-binding indications of interest,” and not technically bids.

That obviously means the door remains wide open for Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, whose name has continued to surface even after the window for making bids supposedly had closed.

Harris tried to buy the Broncos. As PFT reported in the aftermath of the sale of the team to the Walton-Penner group, Harris would have offered $5 billion for the Broncos — if that would have definitely gotten him the team. He didn’t want to offer $5 billion and have someone else (such as the current owners) bid $5 billion and one penny.

That kept the going rate for an NFL team at $4.65 billion, potentially making it cheaper for him to buy another team — like the Commanders.

It’s unclear what the Commanders will fetch at this high-stakes auction. Shortly after owner Daniel Snyder announced an intention to explore selling the team, a report emerged that he wants $7 billion. On the eve of the deadline for “non-binding indications of interest,” a report emerged that he has received multiple offers “well north” of that figure. But then, once the window closed on that initial round of non-offer offers, none exceeded $6.3 billion.

Some still wonder whether, at the end of the day, Snyder will refuse to sell. At that point, some of the other owners may decide to try to force the issue.

Harris already has three major sports franchises if you count the English Premier League – NBA Philadelphia 76ers, NHL New Jersey Devils and Crystal Palace.

Harris grew up in Chevy Chase, Maryland.  And he has made his money by buying and selling.  He co-founded Apollo Global Management, one of the world’s largest alternative investment firms. Bloomberg estimated his net worth to be around US$7.05 billion in July 2021.

This, also from Florio on Sean Payton and someone who might be Harris:

Broncos head coach Sean Payton made the rounds on Friday at Radio Row. We had a great conversation with him on PFT Live.

We could have talked with him for hours. He has great insights, great stories. Here’s a nugget he shared later in the day with Adam Schien of SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio.

Asked whether he possibly would have returned to New Orleans (Payton admitted it was a possibility), he pivoted unprompted to the Washington Commanders.

“Everyone’s waiting to see what happens in Washington,” Payton told Schein. “And there was some interest from some potential ownership groups that are gonna be bidding on, currently had bid on that team, that were getting ahead of the game saying, ‘Hey, if we get awarded this team, would you?’ And so there were a lot of different things at play. . . .

“That’s a place that’s had great tradition. Like, when I came into the league, Adam, my first two years were Philly. My next four years were New York Giants. And then my next three were the Cowboys. My whole entire NFL career prior to New Orleans was NFC East. And what happened to that program?”

Schein asked Payton if it made him think a little.

“Listen, that place, my uncle loved the Washington franchise,” Payton said. “Last year, we go there to play and pregame I’m looking up in the crowd. A third of the fans are Saints fans. And I’m like, what happened to this place? That was one of the six pillars. . . . That was a special place. So it’ll come back.”

First step is new ownership. The current coach, Ron Rivera, could help get there — if he can just coach the team without distractions from above. It would have been something if Payton had waited a little longer to see who purchases the team.

If, that is, owner Daniel Snyder ever sells it.

CAROLINA

Frank Reich is putting together quite the interesting staff in Carolina, including Josh McCown as his quarterbacks coach.  David Newton of ESPN.com:

Dom Capers, the original head coach of the Carolina Panthers from 1995-98, will rejoin the team as a senior defensive consultant to new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, the team announced Friday night.

He will join a staff being put together by new coach Frank Reich, the original starting quarterback of the Panthers under Capers.

Carolina also announced it is bringing back former NFL quarterback Josh McCown to be the team’s quarterbacks coach.

Capers, 72, was senior defensive consultant under Evero at Denver this past season. The two also worked together in 2016 at Green Bay, where Capers was the defensive coordinator and Evero a defensive quality control coach.

Capers told ESPN earlier this week that Evero was a “perfect match for Frank” in terms of personalities and style as the former Indianapolis Colts head coach puts together his staff.

“He’s a top-notch guy,” Capers said of Evero. “Very smart, very well organized, a humble guy. He has a great way of communicating. He did a really good job for me. I was impressed.

The return of Capers, along with Evero, is a strong indication the Panthers are looking to switch from a 4-3 base defense to the 3-4 that Capers has run most of his career and Evero ran last season with the Broncos.

“He did a really, really nice job as the defensive coordinator at Denver,” Capers said. “For most of the season we were ranked in the top five in almost every category.”

Capers led the Panthers to an expansion-record seven wins (7-9 overall) in 1995. They reached the NFC Championship in their second season with a 12-4 regular-season record.

Capers was fired after the 1998 season in which Carolina went 4-12 and finished last in the NFC West. He went on to become the defensive coordinator of the Jacksonville Jaguars and returned as a head coach with the Houston Texans in their inaugural season (2002).

He spent the 2009-17 seasons as the defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers. Since then he has worked a senior defensive coordinator for multiple teams.

His defenses consistently have ranked among the best in the NFL, particularly in sacks and quarterback pressures.

McCown, 43, played 16 seasons in the NFL, serving as a backup quarterback for the Panthers in 2008 and 2009.

He interviewed for the Texans’ head-coaching vacancy last year.

TAMPA BAY

Tom Brady has processed his retirement paperwork per Jenna Laine of ESPN.com:

Former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady filed paperwork with the NFL and NFL Players Association on Friday to confirm his Feb. 1 retirement, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The letter — which begins processing NFLPA benefits — silences any questions about a potential return and makes him eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2028.

Last offseason, Brady retired for 40 days before announcing his return for a third and final season with the Buccaneers. Brady said after his first retirement that his next one would be it for good, and he’s expressed a desire to move on to new things after 23 seasons in the NFL with seven Super Bowl titles.

Brady recently announced that he will assume his role with Fox Sports as an analyst in 2024.

The fact that this move happened Friday means the Bucs will take the brunt of his $35 million in salary cap dead money in 2023 versus being able to divide it between 2023 and 2024 if they had altered the voidable years in his contract and then waited until after June 1 to process the retirement.

The Bucs are projected to be nearly $60 million over the salary cap, according to Roster Management System, as they enter free agency starting March 15. Kyle Trask is currently the only Bucs quarterback under contract.

ARIZONA

Mike Kafka is the leader for the Cardinals head coaching position.  Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com:

Where will the Cardinals turn?

The Arizona Cardinals won’t make a call on their coach until next week, but Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka’s name circulated a lot in relation to the job this week. It feels like Kafka, who had his follow-up interview Tuesday via Zoom, is well-positioned. But Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo got his follow-up interview Friday, so he has impressed as well.

Both coaches have been working diligently to put together a compelling staff in preparation for the job.

And both offer something different. Kafka’s work with Patrick Mahomes and Daniel Jones lends credibility to Arizona’s efforts to fix Kyler Murray.

Kafka, 35, is seven years removed from his playing days and is a one-year playcaller, but he’s known as incredibly detailed and has more of an edge to him than the calm demeanor suggests.

And Anarumo, 56, is a coaching lifer, starting out as a running backs coach for Wagner College in 1989. For a team that needs a culture shift, Anarumo would instill toughness on both sides of the ball. There’s always a chance Arizona could target one of the Super Bowl assistant coaches after the game, but the sense among many in the league is that it’s down to these two. — Fowler

SAN FRANCISCO

The last two 49ers defensive coordinators, both counting as minorities, have been hired as head coaches.  Steve Wilks is positioned to be the third.  Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com:

One week after defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans departed to become the Houston Texans’ head coach, the San Francisco 49ers have his replacement.

The Niners are hiring Steve Wilks, who was most recently the interim head coach of the Carolina Panthers, as their next defensive coordinator, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Tuesday. Wilks’ hiring comes a day after his formal interview with the team.

In commencing his search for Ryans’ replacement, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan made it clear last week that he was hoping to maintain continuity on a defense that has consistently ranked near the top of the league in recent seasons.

“I love our defense,” Shanahan said last week. “I’m trying to get something where we don’t have to turn much over. I would love to keep our same staff, so I’m going to talk to some guys on our staff. I’m going to talk to some guys outside of our staff and hopefully whichever way we decide to go, whether we bring in a new guy or not, that it’s someone who can work with who we have and what we’ve accomplished here. Because I love the scheme that we run and I feel the foundation we have on the D-line, at linebacker, at corner, at safety, I think our players fit very well in it too, so I’m hoping to find someone who fits with us personalitywise and schemewise.”

Shanahan’s insistence on keeping things the same stem from a Niners defense that, in two combined years under Ryans, ranked second in the NFL in points (18.9) and yards per game allowed (305.3), fourth in ESPN’s defensive efficiency (60.7) and yards per play (5.04) and fifth in defensive EPA (67.02).

In Wilks, the Niners are getting someone with NFL experience as a head coach, defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach. Last season, he was Carolina’s defensive passing game coordinator and secondary coach before being promoted to interim head coach upon Matt Rhule’s firing.

With Wilks at the helm, the Panthers went 6-6 and came up just short of winning the NFC South division crown. Before that, Wilks was the Arizona Cardinals’ head coach in 2018, the Panthers’ defensive coordinator in 2017 and the Cleveland Browns’ defensive coordinator in 2019.

Like Ryans and Robert Saleh before him, Wilks prefers a base 4-3 defense that mixes coverages and emphasizes generating pressure with the front four.

KANSAS CITY

Why is TE TRAVIS KELCE always open – even when every defense has to be geared to stop him?  Three writers at The Athletic try to figure it out:

There is only one question that needs to be asked as we get ready for the Super Bowl on Sunday.

How is Travis Kelce, with all defenses preparing for him, always open?

Yeah, yeah … the Chiefs tight end is too fast for linebackers and too big for defensive backs. But surely, defenses can double-team, chip him at the line of scrimmage or bracket coverage on top of him …

So, why is he seemingly running free downfield every week? Kelce, at 33, set career highs with 110 receptions and 12 touchdowns, and his 1,338 yards were the second-best of his career. He either recorded a first down or touchdown on 13 percent of his routes, also a career-best.

Kelce himself has a simple answer.

“Andy Reid, baby. Big Red,” Kelce said Thursday at his Super Bowl media availability. “He can dial stuff up at the right time, create some things at the right time, and then on top of that everybody’s doing their jobs. It’s not just a me-go-out-there-and-get-open-type play. I’m sure you guys like to think that, but there’s a lot of madness to it, and there’s a lot of guys doing their jobs for the big picture. I’m fortunate that I’m playing here, for sure.”

To try to get a further explanation, we spoke to five NFL defensive coordinators, most of whom have spent portions of their career facing Kelce twice a year in the AFC West. They were granted anonymity in order to freely share information.

“He is extremely athletic and he uses your momentum against you,” said one coach who has served as a head coach and coordinator in the league. “It’s something that the Chiefs have passed on from the Tony Gonzalez days. If you have inside leverage, he breaks the route outside, and if you have outside leverage, he breaks the route inside. And Kelce and (Patrick) Mahomes and have so much continuity and chemistry between them that they know what to adjust to at the same time.”

– – –

“But they just run the offense through Kelce now,” another AFC coordinator said. “He and Mahomes are using the players around him as chess pieces now.”

That’s where Reid comes in. The Chiefs coach has been drawing guys open since even before he was coaching Sunday’s opponent, the Eagles, in the Super Bowl 18 years ago. Kelce had a career-high 152 targets without Hill this season and his lowest average depth of target (7.13 yards downfield) since Mahomes became the starter.

“They just started playing a different way this season,” the coordinator and former head coach said. “They would kill you with explosive plays in the past, but now they spread guys around. You can’t play two deep anymore. They still get explosive plays, but they go about it a different way. They attack you from inside out and Mahomes can pick you apart. And Kelce sees the game as a quarterback too. He was one in high school.”

The numbers say that Kelce is better against zone coverage than man-to-man. He ranks eighth out of 185 qualified players in yards/route vs. zone (2.45), whereas he is only 26th in yards/route vs. man (2.18).

“He changes his routes as he is reading defenses running down the field,” one of the AFC coordinators said. “He is fluid in his cuts, and his suddenness making decisions is more effective getting separation than if he was really fast. He is fast enough … and only he knows where he is going. And Mahomes.”

Kelce is particularly good at finding the soft spot in a zone defense by running crossing routes across the middle of the field. Including the playoffs, he has 21 catches (with 19.5 yards per catch) on crossing routes this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. Six went for touchdowns and another 12 moved the chains.

“So, the obvious answer is man coverage and hit him at the line of scrimmage, right?” one NFC coordinator said. “Put another guy on top of him and hope that Mahomes looks to someone else. But he is still going to get his catches. And if you put a linebacker on him, he might miss him and get beat off the line.

“Plus, they move him around a lot.”

Kelce ranked first among tight ends in yards/route from the slot (2.39) … and first at the position in yards/route when lined up out wide (2.46). No tight end ran more routes from out wide than Kelce (183), and seven of his 12 TDs came from out wide.

“He is a matchup nightmare, and not just because he is too wiggly for linebackers, but sometimes he hits them too and gets leverage,” the NFC coordinator said. “He is a tough guy who is a good blocker when he has to be and who knows how to fight for space when he has to.

“You asked why he is so tough to cover. He is a great athlete who studies defenses and has every skill and trick in the book.”

Reid also just moves Kelce — literally, as the tight end is in pre-snap motion more than any other player in the NFL. Since 2020, he leads the NFL in snaps, receptions and receiving yards after going in motion or shifting, according to the league’s Next Gen Stats.

If a defensive end or linebacker does get a bump on Kelce, it’s still not a win as Kelce needs less than a yard of outside or inside leverage to be on his way. The Chiefs also line Kelce up in two receiver stacks with short motion, and Kelce can rub off the crowded, tight coverage like a cutter to the basket in a basketball pick-and-roll play.

“You have to mix it up against him or he is going to go 10 for 160 against you,” said one veteran NFL defensive coordinator said. “People love to say make somebody else beat you, and really you’re hoping that he beats you less.”

And that’s the biggest problem with man-to-man coverage. If Mahomes gets outside the pocket and extends the play, Kelce can catch the ball and run a long way if/when he has beaten his defender. Since 2018, on plays that take three or more seconds to throw the ball, Kelce ranks f0urth in the NFL in receiving yards (2,088), first in yards after catch (723) and second in first down/TD receptions (100).

Having extra defensive backs on the field does seem to help. Among 83 qualified players, Kelce ranks 15th in yards/route (2.05) when defenses have five DBs out there, as opposed to sixth (3.45 yards/route) when four defensive backs or less are on the field. In the regular season, Kelce is tied for third in the NFL with 16 first-down or touchdown receptions against base defenses.

“You have to treat him like a wide receiver and play top-down coverage and always have help,” the NFC coordinator said. “And then you hope the quarterback has to hurry up, otherwise Kelce is too smart and too slippery. If you try and cover him with a safety, in most cases it’s just a matter of time before he beats him for a really big play.”

To make it worse for defenses, Kelce, like all future Hall of Famers, has a knack for coming up big in clutch situations. Take the 30-29 win over the Raiders last October. The Raiders did a good job of chipping at Kelce at the line of scrimmage and held him to seven catches for 25 yards. Unfortunately for them, four of them were touchdown grabs.

“He has a unique way of killing you in critical, critical times,” the veteran coordinator said. “They know what your counter is going to be to their counter, and he just makes plays. Even if he is double-teamed, Mahomes is going to find him, and Kelce is going to make the catch.

“Sometimes it doesn’t matter what coverage you play against them, and that’s hard to say.”

Kelce was targeted on 25 percent of his third- and fourth-down routes during the regular season, a career-high rate. And he ranked fourth among all players in first-down or touchdown receptions on third and fourth down, with 24.

”He is a great competitor, and that’s another reason he will go to the Hall of Fame one day,” one of the AFC coordinators said. “If you have a big enough cornerback with great cover skills, you may have to put him on Kelce. And that’s the biggest compliment you could ever give a tight end. But those kinds of cornerbacks are rare and even then, Kelce has the size advantage and you are hurting yourself in terms of covering their best wide receiver.”

“But it’s pick your poison … and you would love for Kelce not to be the poison.”

The Eagles had some success against the Chiefs the last time they played, in 2021. They held Kelce to four catches for 23 yards, but part of that is because Mahomes was having too much fun throwing the ball to Hill, who had 11 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns in the 42-30 win.

Overall this season, the Eagles rank sixth in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. Across 81 catches, they allowed 801 yards to tight ends, which ranked in the middle of the pack. But they only surrendered three touchdowns to the position, which was the fifth-fewest in the league.

In three games against the Bills and Bengals — two teams that rank ahead of the Eagles in pass defense DVOA against tight ends — Kelce averaged 6.33 receptions for 80.7 yards.

The hope Sunday for the Eagles defense is that its extraordinary pressure up front cuts Mahomes’ time to throw short — as well as Kelce’s ability to roam over the middle of the field.

As far as plans go to stop Kelce, it might be the best one going.

“Everybody has tried different things and there is a reason that the Chiefs are so efficient,” the coordinator and former head coach said. “They have two guys who are among the best to ever play their position, and they think and see the field alike.”

One of the AFC coordinators said he will enjoy watching Kelce play Sunday.

“We all hate going against him, but he plays the game with so much joy,” he said. “He has a lot of confidence that nobody can stop him … or Mahomes … and so far, he’s been right.”

LAS VEGAS

Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com on the latest with QB DEREK CARR:’

What’s the latest with Derek Carr?

While the Las Vegas Raiders’ quarterback was visiting the New Orleans Saints this week, most people I talk to remain skeptical the Raiders will be able to trade Carr — mainly because he has a full no-trade clause and can veto any deal. For example: If Carr liked what he heard in New Orleans and wanted to play for the Saints, he could just wait until the Raiders release him and sign with the Saints. Agreeing to a trade would be doing a favor to the Raiders, who basically fired him, and would weaken his new team by costing it whatever draft pick that team would have to give up to acquire him.

Remember: If Carr is on the Raiders’ roster Wednesday, his full $32.9 million 2023 salary becomes guaranteed, as does $7.5 million of his $41.9 million 2024 salary. If the Raiders are determined to trade him, they could keep him on the roster past Wednesday, but they’d still be taking a major risk of having a $32.9 million cap number for a quarterback they don’t want to use if they were unable to move him (or if he refused to waive his no-trade clause).

There’s also the matter of timing. The Raiders could agree to a trade that sends Carr to the Saints or another team, but that trade can’t become official until 4 p.m. ET on March 15, the first day of the league year. So the Raiders would have to carry Carr’s $32.9 million cap number right up until the start of free agency. Then, if the deal went through right at 4 p.m. ET on March 15, the acquiring team would have to carry that $32.9 million cap number for 24 hours before it’s allowed to be restructured.

Any team acquiring Carr would have to have at least $32.9 million in cap room when the league year started at 4 p.m. ET on March 15. The Saints currently project to be about $60 million over the cap, so they’d have to cut about $93 million in cap space if they wanted to acquire Carr.

The ways around this are: (A) Have the Raiders rework his contract before the trade so he fits under the acquiring team’s cap, or (B) Wait until the Raiders release him and sign him to a new deal that fits under his new team’s cap. Remember, if Carr is released next week, he can sign with any team at any time. He would not have to wait until March 15 as free agents on expiring contracts such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones and Geno Smith would. Carr could get a jump on the market. — Graziano

Everything Dan says is correct … and here’s why I still think New Orleans swinging a trade with Las Vegas is not out of the question: The Raiders’ asking price is modest — a third-round pick, according to multiple sources — and there’s a chance the Saints could come around on committing to Carr’s $40.4 million guarantee that is due Wednesday.

The belief leaguewide is the Saints want to lessen that total and, as Dan mentions, Carr doesn’t — or shouldn’t — want that. But one league exec pointed out it’s really a one-year deal at $33 million, since that $7 million in 2024 salary would likely offset if a prospective team had to cut him. Carr would latch on elsewhere at more than $7 million, and one year at $33 million for him is reasonable.

The problem is, even if Carr can’t hit that total in free agency — some are skeptical — team fit is a key component for him, so he’s willing to find out. Altering his contract doesn’t help him there. — Fowler

CINCINNATI

Ben Baby of ESPN.com on Cincinnati’s offseason agenda:

As Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle DJ Reader sat at his locker, eyes reddened, processing a season that ended with a dramatic loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game almost two weeks ago, he expressed a truth that is one of the NFL’s constant realities.

“This team will never be the same again,” Reader said in the minutes after the 23-20 loss.

The 2022 version of the Bengals was one of the best in team history. It won 10 straight games, a franchise record, and matched the most victories by a Cincinnati squad in a single season (12).

Throughout the year, the team’s bond and chemistry have been noted as one of the reasons for its success. That wasn’t top of mind for Bengals coach Zac Taylor the day after Cincinnati’s playoff exit, but it was something that he acknowledged as the team moves into a critical offseason.

“Now the next phase of the NFL happens where you start to go through this transitionally into free agency, and we’ll see how it plays out for a lot of guys,” Taylor said.

So what comes next for Cincinnati? Here are three aspects of the offseason to watch as the Bengals look to sustain the success from previous seasons.

Taking care of business

Everything with this franchise starts with quarterback Joe Burrow. In his first three full seasons, the Bengals won the AFC North, were two minutes away from winning the Super Bowl and narrowly missed going back to that game following the loss to Kansas City.

What happens with Burrow is the biggest domino to fall when it comes to the rest of the offseason. He, along with the other rookies drafted in 2020, is eligible for a contract extension. And the clock to get his deal squared away has started.

“I think that starts now internally,” Taylor said on Jan. 30 of conversations about Burrow’s extension talks.

History indicates the Bengals understand the value of getting an expensive quarterback deal done as quickly as possible. When Cincinnati signed Carson Palmer to his big extension in 2005, the Bengals did it with time remaining on his rookie contract, which allowed the franchise to spread out the cost against the salary cap over multiple years.

The collective bargaining agreement allows teams to prorate a signing bonus for up to five years. In other words, a $50 million bonus can be paid to a player upfront but only carries a $10 million annual hit against the salary cap. Or, Cincinnati could mirror the contract given to Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, whose $141 million in guaranteed money is structured as yearly roster bonuses due near the beginning of the league year, according to Roster Management System.

Once Cincinnati figures out how much to pay Burrow and, more importantly, how to structure that deal, the Bengals will get a better glimpse at what will be available for linebacker Logan Wilson and wide receiver Tee Higgins. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow’s longtime teammate dating back to their days at LSU and one of the league’s most dynamic players, will be up for an extension in 2024.

Making salary cap decisions

Cincinnati has pushed back at the concept of a championship window built around an elite quarterback on a rookie contract, which is a massive discount to a franchise. But the reality is that the financial flexibility the Bengals have enjoyed will disappear once Burrow’s new contract starts to take a significant chunk of the salary cap.

The Bengals have $33.6 million in salary cap space for 2023, according to Roster Management System. But that number is just with 46 players on the roster. Several key players — tight end Hayden Hurst, running back Samaje Perine, cornerback Eli Apple, safety Vonn Bell and linebacker Germaine Pratt — from last year’s team have expired contracts.

Cincinnati will have to replace a few starters and sign players for depth across the roster, too. It’s also worth noting that the Bengals have historically budgeted money to be used in case of emergency during the regular season.

Some of the strains of the salary cap have already been realized. Jessie Bates, who has started at safety since he was drafted in 2018, was not given a contract extension before the 2021 or 2022 seasons, with Cincinnati opting for the one-year franchise tag instead.

Wide receiver Tyler Boyd is fully aware of what his contract ramifications mean for his future with the Bengals. Boyd is entering the final year of an extension he signed in 2019. If the Bengals cut him, they will receive $8.9 million in cap savings.

Boyd told ESPN he’s just waiting to see what happens over the upcoming months.

“We’ll see what they want to do with me, but I know I’m still entitled for a year,” Boyd said after the loss to Kansas City. “I’m not counting my chances of not being here out. You never know.”

Refreshing the roster

Cincinnati’s draft strategy in 2022 was clear. With the selections of safety Dax Hill, cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt and defensive tackle Zach Carter in the first three rounds, respectively, the Bengals were slotting in younger, cheaper players to potentially become starters in future years.

With the current roster situation, Hill and Taylor-Britt could be the new anchors of the secondary in 2023 alongside veterans Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton, two cornerbacks who will be on expiring deals after this season.

ESPN’s latest mock draft has the Bengals trending toward the same approach in 2023. ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller has Cincinnati selecting Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer with the 28th overall pick. Mayer, who played high school football (Covington Catholic) roughly three miles from Paycor Stadium, could replace Hurst as a pass-catching option at tight end.

When Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin speaks at the NFL scouting combine, it could provide insight into where Cincinnati will be headed in the draft.

Whatever happens in the draft will be crucial to maximizing the Bengals’ chances of returning to the AFC Championship Game and competing for a Super Bowl again.

HOUSTON

Kliff Kingsbury is back from Thailand – and spotted in his ancestral state.  Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk.com:’

According to multiple reports, Kingsbury is in Houston on Friday to discuss joining DeMeco Ryans’ staff with the Texans.

Kingsbury is presumably a candidate to be the club’s offensive coordinator. He called the offensive plays as Arizona’s head coach from 2019-2022.

The Cardinals fired Kingsbury after a 4-13 finish this season. In four years, Kingsbury compiled a 28-37-1 record. The club’s best offensive finish was in 2021, when the Cardinals were No. 8 in yards and No. 11 in points. The 2020 team was No. 6 in yards and No. 13 in points.

Before Arizona hired him, Kingsbury had a very brief stop at USC as the program’s offensive coordinator. That was after Texas Tech fired him following the 2018 season, as Kingsbury had compiled a 35-40 record as the program’s head coach.

Whoever Ryans chooses as his offensive coordinator with Houston will have a significant hand in developing whoever the Texans will presumably choose to be their quarterback with one of the top picks in this year’s draft.

Houston will reportedly hire one of Kingsbury’s former assistants, Matt Burke, as defensive coordinator. Burke served as the Cardinals’ defensive line coach in 2022.

INDIANAPOLIS

Zak Keefer of The Athletic goes into the excruciating detail of the Colts’ ongoing coaching search:

After four and a half weeks of waiting, what’s a few more days?

The expectation, at this point, is that the Colts won’t make their head-coaching hire until early next week, after the Super Bowl, capping an exhaustive search that began back on Jan. 10, the day after a miserable season ended with a last-second loss to the Texans.

If the Colts have made their decision, they’re not letting it slip — not yet, at least. The team has kept things incredibly quiet throughout the search, and the finishing stretch has been no different. “Nobody knows,” an individual familiar with the process said this week.

Here are the presumptive finalists, the candidates the Colts interviewed twice: interim coach Jeff Saturday, Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia.

Those coaches, as of earlier this week, were waiting to hear from the team regarding their decision.

Former Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero also met with the Colts twice but has since taken the same job with the Panthers; he won’t be coming to Indianapolis.

Here’s what we know:

• The Colts’ incredibly meticulous search — one of the most thorough the NFL has seen in recent memory — is not accidental, but deliberate. This was always the plan, frustrating as it’s been for the fan base. Those leading the search, starting with general manager Chris Ballard, have enjoyed the process over the past several weeks, starting with their interactions with some of the brightest coordinators in the league.

There’s been a lot to learn, not only about what the Colts need to do differently, but what’s working elsewhere.

As for the drawn-out process, from the team’s perspective, it’d be one thing if the Colts were chasing a hot name, like Sean Payton, a potential hire that would require urgency and aggressiveness. From the beginning, they weren’t. The Colts never felt the need to rush anything. So they haven’t.

Ballard pointed to this before sitting down with the first candidate, via Zoom, on Jan. 11. He promised a very detailed process the team had put together leading up to the search, with the aim being to identify “the traits and attributes we’re looking for in a head coach.”

He vowed the team would be patient, take its time and conduct a thorough interview with each candidate, resisting the urge to lean on previously held assumptions. Ballard didn’t want to start with an end in mind.

This stems from the mistakes the Colts made last time, not vetting Josh McDaniels thoroughly enough to get the sense he could change his mind at the last minute, which he did.

“Consistent, thorough,” Ballard stressed. “I don’t care if it takes until mid-February … it’s about getting it right.”

In the end, obviously, Ballard is correct: all that matters is the Colts land the right coach, not how they got there.

• Think they’ve done enough work?

The Colts’ initial 13 first-round interviews — all on Zoom — lasted about four hours each.

The ensuing eight second-round interviews — all in person — lasted between 10 and 12 hours each.

That’s 21 total interviews and 132 combined hours with the candidates across 31 days.

• After not sitting in on any of the 13 first-round interviews, owner Jim Irsay has had a much more central role for the second round, meeting with each candidate individually for a few hours. My sense is he flew to Philadelphia last weekend to sit down with Steichen in person before Steichen’s formal interview with Ballard a day later.

Irsay, remember, is making the final call here and has often pointed to the intuitiveness required for these types of franchise-altering decisions. An instinct, he’s called it, a feel. “It’s something (from) being in the league for 52 years,” the owner has said.

• As for the Colts keeping this quiet, they’ve left everyone around the league guessing. And the fact that the team weighed third-round interviews — a very rare occurrence in today’s NFL — threw some for a surprise.

“I’m struggling to make heads or tails of what the Colts are doing when I read they were going to do third-round interviews,” former NFL executive Randy Mueller said on The Athletic’s “Football GM” podcast this week. “I almost think they’re stalling for time.”

My understanding is the Colts, after initially considering it, decided against third-round interviews, and have spent the last several days weighing what they learned in their lengthy sit-downs with each finalist, then whittling down their options. And again, for the past few weeks, I’ve gotten a strong sense that it will not be Saturday who lands the job — though because of Irsay’s affection for him, I’m not ruling anything out.

“If they wanted to hire Jeff Saturday,” Mueller continued, “I think they would have hired him a long time ago.”

That’s a good point. Chances are the Colts know who they’re going with, they’re just holding the decision until after Sunday’s Super Bowl.

• The Colts have blocked a few teams from interviewing defensive coordinator Gus Bradley for the same position because there’s a good chance he stays in Indianapolis. Several candidates for the team’s head-coaching job have told Colts brass in interviews that they intend to bring Bradley and his defensive staff back in 2023.

While anything could happen after the hire, keeping Bradley and his staff makes sense on a few levels: it’d offer the Colts some much-needed consistency amid considerable turnover within the organization, and Bradley’s unit performed admirably throughout most of 2022, finishing 15th in defensive EPA despite having its best player, Shaquille Leonard, on the field for just 74 snaps.

As a chaotic season neared its end, Bradley seemed open to the idea of returning to Indianapolis and building on what he started in 2022.

“This league presents uncertainty,” Bradley said in early January. “But yeah, you’d like to say, ‘All right, we just built something, now let’s take the next step.’

“There’s things that we’ve learned about this unit, what works well and our skill set, and where our players are, so we’ve had conversations as a defensive staff about: ‘Boy, really now, if we take this out and add this in, in the offseason, I think it will help this group take another step,’” he continued. “You’d like to, for their sake, have something where you can add on to what you’ve done.”

In consecutive seasons, Bradley’s been a part of staffs that saw the head coach depart in the middle of the season (Jon Gruden, who resigned from the Raiders in 2021, and Frank Reich with the Colts in 2022). It makes sense that Bradley would want to keep building in Indianapolis instead of starting over again, so long as he believes in the vision of the new head coach.

While there would be some changes — for example, there’s a decent chance Kenny Moore II is not back with the Colts in 2023 —Bradley’s foundation and experience would be something the new coach could lean on early in his tenure. With DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Stephon Gilmore and Leonard all under contract, there’s plenty of talent, too.

Bradley also makes sense for a young offensive-minded head coach, who’ll likely be busy on that side of the ball, grooming the Colts’ rookie quarterback.

Bradley overlapped with Steichen for four seasons in Los Angeles with the Chargers — Bradley was the team’s defensive coordinator from 2017 to 2020, Steichen the QBs coach and later the offensive coordinator — so there is some familiarity there. Bradley spent time with another finalist, Raheem Morris, in Tampa Bay from 2006-2008, and worked under Bisaccia last year in Las Vegas.

• The Colts aren’t overly concerned about the late hire affecting the staff the new head coach can put together. If Bradley stays, that certainly helps — he’ll bring with him respected defensive backs coach Ron Milus, linebackers coach Richard Smith and defensive line coach Nate Ollie, among others.

Reich wasn’t officially hired until a week after the Super Bowl in 2018, long after the coaching cycle had wrapped, and put together a very strong staff of assistants (though he had some help with a few of McDaniels’ holdovers): Nick Sirianni (offensive coordinator), Jonathan Gannon (cornerbacks), Alan Williams (defensive backs), Kevin Patullo (wide receivers) and Tom Manning (tight ends) among them.

The Colts’ new coach — whomever it is — will have to do the same, particularly on offense, where this team will likely be building around its quarterback of the future.

If this list of finalists is correct – and Bradley is staying:

interim coach Jeff Saturday, Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia.

We would think the winner would be one of the remaining four. And if Keefer is correct that Irsay has been dissuaded from hiring Saturday we are down to Steichen, Callahan and Bisaccia.  And if the coach wasn’t named last week, we thinking it is Steichen in the same spot that Kyle Shanahan was with the Falcons a few years ago.  Plus, Steichen’s familiarity with Bradley would seem to bode well.

Anytime a White coach is hired now, we will hear moaning from some in the media.  But we would point out that Irsay has more than done his part for Coaching Justice with the hirings of Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell.  If there is a problem, he has not been part of it.

NEW YORK JETS

Jeremy Fowler on the chances that QB AARON RODGERS will be re-united with Nathaniel Hackett this year:

Aaron Rodgers, the Jets and what might come next

I will walk away from Phoenix more convinced than ever the Jets will aggressively pursue Rodgers. The buzz around the Jets and Rodgers was strong at the Senior Bowl and hasn’t subsided this week. The Jets believe they are close to contention. He’s target A until proved otherwise. But it’s early in what would be a complex process, the price tag remains enormous and the Packers aren’t down the road on any potential trade — after all, Rodgers hasn’t decided what he’s doing about his future.

Owner Woody Johnson said it best to our Dianna Russini on the red carpet of NFL Honors: “You want the best quarterback you can get to lead the Jets” and “I can’t really talk about [Rodgers]” but that “everybody recognizes talent.”

He’s speaking in code to avoid the suggestion of tampering, but you get the point. As a result, I don’t get the sense the Jets are all-in on Carr. Based on asking around, the sense is Carr is No. 2 on their list. — Fo

THIS AND THAT

2023 DRAFT

A Mock Draft from Matt Miller of ESPN.com:

The Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl are in the rearview mirror, so it seems like a good time to reset Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2023 NFL draft. I saw a handful of risers firsthand last week in Mobile, Alabama, during three days of practice sessions, and 15 attendees make my two-round mock draft below.

Now, this is still a very early projection. We have the scouting combine in a month, along with pro day workouts and team interviews still ahead for prospects. A lot will change. The full draft order isn’t even set yet, since we are waiting on the outcome of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to determine the final two spots in each round. (ESPN’s Football Power Index currently projects Philadelphia to win and pick last in Round 1.) Remember, there are only 31 first-round picks after the Miami Dolphins were stripped of their selection for tampering violations, which means there are only 63 selections in the opening two rounds.

All that said, here are my predictions for how the first 63 picks in the draft might play out, including landing spots for five quarterbacks — and a trade that could make sense right at the top of the board! Let’s get started.

ROUND 1

Projected trade: Colts move up for a QB

Multiple teams in the top 10 could try to move up to No. 1 to land their quarterback of choice, and the Bears — who already have Justin Fields — certainly should be listening to offers. In this scenario, the Colts take the plunge, sending the Bears the Nos. 4 and 35 picks, a fourth-rounder and a 2024 third-rounder to jump to the top.

I spoke to a few people in the league for context on what might seem like a fair deal, and this fits for both franchises. Indy can get its signal-caller, and Chicago should still have the chance to land a top defender while adding a haul of draft assets, including a valuable second-rounder.

1. Indianapolis Colts (via mock trade with CHI)

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

The Colts make an aggressive move here to secure the future of the franchise at quarterback, trading up to No. 1 to select Young. Yes, Young will be one of the smallest quarterbacks (6-foot, 194 pounds) drafted in the first round in the modern era, but we can’t ignore that he’s also the best — and most pro-ready — passer in this class. He compiled 79 touchdown passes over the past two seasons to just 12 interceptions.

Young is a master in the pocket with poise, vision, agility and a sixth sense that reminds me of Joe Burrow. In fact, Burrow would be my comp for Young if the latter were a few inches taller. The Colts are in a true rebuild situation, and Young could be the first piece to the puzzle.

2. Houston Texans

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Every team that wants a quarterback in this draft should be thinking about jumping the Texans to secure its top-ranked passer, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for Houston to move up a spot itself to block others. Although Levis is one of the most polarizing players in this class because of his interceptions (23 over the past two years), he has the best arm talent in the group, along with very good pocket mobility and toughness. He wasn’t surrounded by elite talent at Kentucky and had a change at offensive coordinator that affected his development, but the Penn State transfer has to prove to teams in workouts and interviews that his decision-making can be reworked. On traits alone, Levis is a top-10 talent. It’s on the Texans to see that talent developed.

One note from the Senior Bowl: A rival scout I spoke to doesn’t think Houston will draft a quarterback. That seems hard to believe right now with the quarterback situation so unsettled there. The Texans ranked last in the NFL this season in QBR (26.0). But it’s something to file away with new coach DeMeco Ryans having a background on defense.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama

The Cardinals are in an envious position, as new general manager Monti Ossenfort can sit tight and draft the best remaining prospect here. He is essentially guaranteed a shot at Anderson or Georgia’s Jalen Carter. As Ossenfort looks to remake a roster heavy on versatile defenders and small receivers, he could start with the most important spot on defense.

Anderson dominated over the past three years at Alabama, wracking up 34.5 sacks, 184 pressures and 66 tackles for loss. His first-step quickness and relentless motor are reminiscent of Von Miller when the future Hall of Famer was coming out of Texas A&M in 2011. Anderson can line up at defensive end or as a standup rusher, and he would be a tone-setter for a defense desperately in need of an identity.

4. Chicago Bears (via mock trade with IND)

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

The Bears traded back in this scenario but still are in position to select perhaps the top prospect in the class. In Matt Eberflus’ defense, the 3-technique pass-rusher is crucial, and Carter is a Fletcher Cox-like difference-maker there. He played in a rotation in 2021 and had an injury-plagued 2022, so we didn’t see him post great stat totals (just six career sacks). When watching the historically talented Georgia defense over the past two years, however, he was the most talented of the bunch.

Carter’s burst off the snap has the potential to be great, and he already displays an understanding of leverage, space and timing when unleashing spin and rip moves. He should enter the NFL as a high-end starter at the position on which Eberflus’ defense hinges.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

Seattle is in a prime position for teams wanting to trade up and secure a quarterback, but general manager John Schneider doesn’t have to trade back. With two first-rounders, he can look to revamp his defensive line the way he did the offensive line with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas last year. Poona Ford is a free agent, and Uchenna Nwosu has only one year left on his deal.

Wilson was red hot in 2022 with seven sacks, but it’s his length, power and speed that excite scouts. He is 6-6 and 275 pounds with length, which he uses to create separation and counter around, over and under. Wilson isn’t on the level with Will Anderson Jr., but he’s not far off.

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

The top-ranked cornerback in the class goes to the Lions, and Witherspoon is exactly what the team needs as a physical, sticky cover man with instincts and ball skills. He is 6-1 and only 180 pounds, but he plays much bigger and is the best open-field tackler among this group of corners. Plus, he allowed just two completions of over 20 yards all season to go with his three interceptions.

The Lions are another team that could trade back with a quarterback-needy club, but the risk there is sliding back too far and missing out on the top cornerback in the class after allowing a league-high 6.2 yards per play in 2022. If the front office and coaching staff are aligned on Jared Goff continuing as the signal-caller, this is the move to best improve the team.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern

Tom Brady announcing his retirement might have put a wrinkle in the plans for this pick, but many scouts and decision-makers in the league believe the Raiders will not draft a quarterback here. “There is no way Josh [McDaniels] is trusting a rookie quarterback with the way they struggled this year,” said one AFC area scout at the Senior Bowl. I tend to agree. McDaniels seems more likely to go after free agent Jimmy Garoppolo or re-sign Jarrett Stidham.

No matter who is playing quarterback, the Raiders have to upgrade the offensive line. Scouts I spoke to at the Senior Bowl all agreed Skoronski is the most NFL-ready of the 2023 class, although many project him to be a guard at the next level because of shorter arm length. He is physical — especially in the run game — and has the mobility to be very good at the second level. The Raiders could slide him in at left guard to form a very solid blind side for the next QB.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

The Falcons might be tempted by quarterback C.J. Stroud with the board playing out this way, but rookie Desmond Ridder showed enough promise in 2022 to be given another shot as the starter. Instead, the Falcons have to address the defense and start building a unit that can compete across the board. At 6-5 and 275 pounds, Murphy is expected to perform among the top defensive ends in recent history at the combine.

One scouting source told me the junior could run in the “high-4.5-second” range in the 40-yard dash. And an AFC area scout compared Murphy’s physical traits and potential to Travon Walker’s, so there are high hopes of what he can become. Murphy had 6.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss in 2022.

9. Carolina Panthers

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

It’s likely the Panthers will try to trade up to secure a quarterback, but in this mock draft, general manager Scott Fitterer can hold tight and save his draft capital with Stroud available at No. 9. Re-signing Sam Darnold as a bridge quarterback and drafting Stroud to work with new coach Frank Reich is a smart team-building move. The Ohio State quarterback has awesome accuracy to all levels of the field and showed in the College Football Playoff semifinals against Georgia what he can do as a runner and mover in the pocket.

Stroud’s 85 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions over his college career is impressive, and he finished second in QBR in 2022 (88.9). And although Stroud might need time to adjust to an NFL scheme, he has the passing ability to become the franchise quarterback this team so badly needs.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Hear me out! The Eagles have few needs on a roster that has been beautifully built by general manager Howie Roseman, and they do not have a ton of draft capital overall with only two picks on Day 3. With Miles Sanders hitting free agency, the Eagles need a true RB1 to work with quarterback Jalen Hurts. Robinson can be that guy. He’d also be very affordable as the No. 10 pick compared with signing a Josh Jacobs or Saquon Barkley in free agency — or even franchise-tagging Sanders. And no team came close to the Eagles’ No. 1-ranked expected points added via the run in 2022 (29.5).

Robinson is the best running back prospect since Barkley left Penn State in 2018. He’s powerful at 6-foot and 220 pounds, and he has shown both fantastic speed in the open field and the best contact balance in college football. Scouts I’ve spoken to say Robinson’s best football is still ahead of him, too, as Texas didn’t use him much in the passing game (19 catches in 2022). With over 2,600 yards and 29 touchdowns in the past two years, he is without a doubt this draft’s best back and is my No. 5 overall player.

11. Tennessee Titans

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

The left tackle position might not seem like a need for Tennessee, but veteran Taylor Lewan turns 32 before next season and missed all but two games of the 2022 season with a right knee injury. In fact, he hasn’t played a full season since 2017 and has just 20 starts in the past three years combined. The Titans have to get younger (and cheaper) at key positions while ensuring they hit on first-round picks. That’s why Ran Carthon was hired as general manager.

Jones is a physical, tough offensive tackle who has quick, light feet and the potential to become better shooting his hands. At 6-4 and 311 pounds, there will be questions about his length, but Jones was an elite left tackle in the SEC and is just 21 years old. He didn’t allow a single sack across 15 starts in 2022.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Addison has been successful at every stop throughout his college career, winning the Biletnikoff Award at Pitt before transferring to USC. In his lone season as a Trojan, Addison grabbed 59 passes for 875 yards and eight touchdowns while lining up primarily in the slot, and he dropped just two passes all season. He doesn’t have great size (6-foot, 170 pounds) but plays much more physically than you’d expect, and he’ll likely be heavier for the combine and his pro playing career. Addison’s quick cuts, strong hands and ability to sink his hips and accelerate out of breaks have him ready to immediately become Will Levis’ new go-to target in Houston.

13. New York Jets

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

The Mekhi Becton experiment hasn’t worked in New York after just 15 starts in his career and none since Week 1 of the 2021 season. The Jets need a left tackle, and Johnson was very good for Ohio State holding down that spot. The junior didn’t allow a sack until the Michigan game and surrendered just two on the season. A starter at right guard before this year, Johnson has the agility, balance and size (6-6, 310 pounds) to be a true Day 1 left tackle in the NFL. He’ll need to get a little stronger at the point of attack, but his frame will support that. For the Jets, with so much up in the air offensively, finding a long-term left tackle is key in this draft.

14. New England Patriots

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Major upgrades are needed across the board, and for the first time in a very long time, New England can truly select the best prospect available. That’s Porter on my board, the son of former Steelers great Joey Porter. The younger Porter has his father’s tough demeanor on the field but is a silky smooth mover in space and has awesome length at 6-2 and 200 pounds. He grabbed just one interception in college but had 11 pass breakups, as Big Ten quarterbacks largely ignored his side of the field. With his physical play, instincts and length, Porter feels like a perfect fit in New England.

15. Green Bay Packers

Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama

You didn’t think I would actually put a wide receiver here, did you? Yes, it’s a need in Green Bay, but general manager Brian Gutekunst is allergic to spending first-round picks there no matter who is playing quarterback. And although a trade of Aaron Rodgers might happen and net Green Bay extra picks, we’re playing this one straight for now.

Branch is exactly what Green Bay misses in the secondary. He’s highly instinctive on the football field and has handled slot, outside corner and safety duties for Nick Saban, which is a pretty high honor. Branch is an impressive all-around football player at 6-foot and 194 pounds, which is why he grabbed two picks, had seven pass breakups, recorded three sacks and ended up with 89 tackles (12 for loss) in 2022.

16. Washington Commanders

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

The quarterback situation in Washington is less than ideal with Taylor Heinicke hitting free agency and Carson Wentz no longer a viable starting option. The Commanders did draft Sam Howell in the fifth round of the 2022 draft, but rarely do Day 3 quarterbacks become franchise passers. With Richardson on the board, this is the pick that makes the most sense.

He is not a finished product after starting just 13 games in college, but his highs are incredibly high and he has the highest ceiling of this quarterback class — if he can put everything together. Richardson, who is 6-4 and 232 pounds, has the strongest arm of the class, too, and he pairs that with game-changing running ability. The downside? Nine interceptions to just 17 touchdown passes in 2022 and a QBR of 71.2 show that Richardson’s accuracy needs work before he’s a complete passer. He completed just 54.7% of his throws over his career.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

The biggest need in Pittsburgh this offseason is along the offensive line, but with the top three tackles already off the board, the Steelers could pivot to the secondary. Gonzalez has a unique blend of traits and production. The 6-2, 200-pound cornerback is expected to test really well at the combine, with one area scout predicting times in the 4.3-second range in the 40-yard dash. But Gonzalez is more than “just” a high-level speed player; he had four interceptions and seven pass breakups in 2022 after transferring from Colorado. He’s a perfect match of need and value, and — spoiler — Pittsburgh could wait until Round 2 to address the O-line with a pair of picks.

18. Detroit Lions

Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

After selecting the best cornerback in the draft at No. 6 (Devon Witherspoon), the Lions are back on the clock and looking to double down on defense. Van Ness is a raw pass-rusher after playing sparingly at Iowa, but he performed well enough to notch 6.5 sacks in 2022 and seven in 2021. The 6-5, 270-pound defensive end has shades of Trey Hendrickson to his game, which is why he’s seen as a potential first-rounder despite not starting for the Hawkeyes.

The Lions hit pay dirt with Aidan Hutchinson and have a very good situational pass-rusher in fellow rookie James Houston. So Van Ness could round out the defensive line group with power, length and an ability against the run that’s needed opposite Hutchinson.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

With the top four quarterbacks off the board, the Buccaneers have to think about a free agent plan to add to the quarterback room after Tom Brady’s retirement. This feels like a rebuild and not a reload, though, and that means not reaching for needs when there is value on the board.

Forbes was outstanding in 2022, grabbing six interceptions and breaking up seven passes while showing speed and instincts to play outside cornerback. At 6-foot and 180 pounds, Forbes is lean, but his length and timing make up for the lack of bulk. With Jamel Dean set to hit free agency, Forbes’ availability at No. 19 makes him a great value and fills the team’s second-biggest need, after quarterback.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

The Seahawks filled their most pressing need with Tyree Wilson at No. 5, which makes this selection about value and future needs. Wide receiver Tyler Lockett turns 31 in September, and even though he’s coming off his fourth straight 1,000-yard season, he’s not a player the team is building around long term at this stage of his career. Opposite Lockett is DK Metcalf, who is the subject of yearly trade rumors and has a contract that features an out clause in two seasons.

Smith-Njigba entered the year as my top-ranked receiver and still holds that title despite missing all but three games because of a hamstring injury. Rewatch his record-setting Rose Bowl performance against Utah from the 2021 season for a reminder of what he can do on the field. JSN went off for 15 catches, 347 yards and three touchdowns that night to cap a 95-catch, 1,606-yard season. Yes, scouts are concerned about his hamstring injury, but multiple NFL evaluators have noted that, if healthy, Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in the class.

21. Los Angeles Chargers

Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

The Chargers have multiple options here, but the front seven is a big problem. L.A. allowed 5.9 yards per play (29th). A torn pectoral muscle in late October ended Smith’s season, but the 6-3 senior posted 11.5 sacks in his career while, like most Georgia defenders, working in a heavy rotation. He is a versatile linebacker who is comfortable standing up or playing with his hand down and has the first-step quickness to stun blockers while also being agile enough to play in space as an off-ball linebacker. That’s perfect for the Chargers’ base 3-4 scheme and today’s NFL.

Smith, just 235 pounds during the season, will need to add strength, but his ability to quickly get into the backfield gives the Chargers a long-term pass-rusher opposite Joey Bosa. And in the meantime, he can help in space at linebacker when Bosa and Khalil Mack drop down to defensive end.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

There will be tons of speculation between now and the draft about the Ravens’ long-term plans, given the free agent status of quarterback Lamar Jackson. Until there’s more clarity, it’s best to move forward assuming the 26-year-old former MVP will return to the Ravens. And whether it’s Jackson or someone else at quarterback, wide receiver remains a giant offseason priority in Baltimore. Both Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay are returning next season off injury, so the Ravens need not only more talent at the position but also a healthy contributor.

Johnston has a high-level blend of size (6-4, 215 pounds) and deep speed that helped him average 18.9 yards per catch over his three-year career. Drops can be a factor for Johnston, who had six in 2022, but his big-play ability and extended catch radius are much needed in Baltimore. No other team had fewer receiving yards from the WR position than the Ravens’ 1,517.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Drew Sanders, ILB, Arkansas

Another year with an early playoff exit despite regular-season dominance should have the Vikings back to the drawing board in terms of the roster build and what is needed to get over the hump. One area multiple NFL scouts have pointed to is the play and age at linebacker. Jordan Hicks and Eric Kendricks will play next season at 31, and only two teams allowed more yards per play (5.9) in 2022.

Sanders transferred from Alabama and immediately became a defensive leader at Arkansas. When I visited the school last fall, the defensive staff raved about his instincts and toughness. He became a three-down player with 9.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles and 111 tackles in his first season as a starter. The 6-5, 232-pound junior is still developing as a linebacker but has the potential to be a force in the NFL.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Perhaps the most surprising team of this NFL season was the Jaguars, going from the No. 1 overall pick to AFC South champions. The work on the roster build is far from over, though, with multiple key starters hitting free agency. One such area of need is right tackle, where Jawaan Taylor might price himself out of the Jaguars’ comfort zone. If Taylor isn’t retained, a clear answer to the position is available from the University of Tennessee. Wright started his career at left tackle before moving to the right side in 2022. He flourished there, helping to pave the way for one of college football’s most exciting offenses.

The 6-5, 342-pound tackle just turned in a fantastic Senior Bowl performance, showing great power, length, quickness and balance for his size. He’s a plug-and-play starter on the right side. Wright allowed only one sack this season, and he didn’t have a single blown run block.

25. New York Giants

Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

If you watch a couple of games from the Giants’ 2022 season, it’s painfully obvious the team’s biggest need is at wide receiver — as long as quarterback Daniel Jones is either franchise-tagged or re-signed. The signal-caller took a huge step in his development but now needs help around him to further that growth. The only players on the roster to catch more than 50 passes in 2022 were a running back (Saquon Barkley, 57) and a journeyman receiver (Richie James, 57).

Hyatt exploded onto the scene in Tennessee’s vertical tempo offense, catching 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns, all while averaging a clean 18.9 yards per catch. He is a certified deep threat, with one area scout telling me at the Senior Bowl that he’ll likely run in the low-4.3-second range in the 40-yard dash. The Giants are desperate for a receiver who can stretch the field and be Jones’ version of Stefon Diggs, whom coach Brian Daboll used so well while in Buffalo. Hyatt has the vertical speed to fit that role.

26. Dallas Cowboys

O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

One of the top performers during Senior Bowl week was Torrence, my top-ranked player in Mobile. The 6-5, 337-pound right guard was dominant in one-on-one drills throughout the week, showing an aggressive ability in the run game. But what was most impressive during the week was his ability in pass protection, where his length showed up as pass-rushers were unable to consistently get around him. The Cowboys’ offensive line is in flux, but the addition of Torrence would allow Tyler Smith to play left tackle full time while improving the team’s overall offensive line play. The Gators big man allowed just one sack in 2022.

27. Buffalo Bills

Cody Mauch, OT/G, North Dakota State

The Bills’ Super Bowl window is open, but for how much longer if the team fails to make investments in the run game? There’s no running back worthy of being drafted here, but there is a lineman who could help beef up the ground game. Mauch played left tackle at NDSU but projects on the inside in the NFL. At 6-5 and 305 pounds, he plays with toughness and strength in the run game. Mauch is coming from a lower level of competition, but his power and agility would immediately improve the Buffalo offensive line and give the team a boost in the passing and running games when the weather turns cold and this offense seems to slow down.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

The first of a loaded tight end group comes off the board as the Bengals look to develop an inside passing game to complement the outside talent assembled in Cincinnati. Mayer is a throwback tight end who reminds me of T.J. Hockenson, showcasing an in-line blocking game and terrific seam game as a receiver. Mayer, who is 6-5, 235 pounds, had 67 catches for nine touchdowns in 2022 while playing in an offense without an established quarterback. And while he doesn’t have elite speed or positional versatility, the top-ranked tight end in the class is a tremendous value at this spot, especially with Hayden Hurst hitting free agency.

29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN/MIA/SF)

Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech

Ahead of the Senior Bowl last week, I texted a handful of NFL scouts to ask their opinions on the best player in attendance. Every one of them replied, “Keion White.” Indeed, he impressed all week with power, quickness and traits that point to positional versatility in the NFL. At 6-5 and 280 pounds, White has the power to knock blockers off their spots, but he also showed a nasty spin move and more agility than expected. According to one NFL general manager with whom I spoke, he can play inside as a 3-technique or outside as a head-up defensive end — which is good because New Orleans could lose David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport to free agency. White posted 7.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss in 2022.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

Derick Hall, DE, Auburn

Kansas City could end up at No. 30 or No. 31, of course, but we’re going off ESPN’s Football Power Index here. Either way, the Chiefs can land a difference-maker. Another huge riser during the week in Mobile, Hall made an impression at weigh-ins with 6-3, 252-pound size, 34⅜-inch arm length and an 83-inch wingspan. He continued to wow once players hit the field, too, with quickness and a long-arm rush move that he counters well with an under move.

Hall isn’t for every scheme, but in Kansas City, he can be the team’s eventual replacement for Frank Clark opposite the fantastic rookie George Karlaftis. As the Chiefs move into the big-salary years of Patrick Mahomes’ new deal, continuing to find rookie starters and high-end contributors will be key to staying Super Bowl competitive. Hall’s value and upside (16 sacks over the past two seasons) fit what we’ve seen general manager Brett Veach do recently in the draft.

31. Philadelphia Eagles

Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

The Eagles got a running back at No. 10 (Bijan Robinson) in this scenario, and some might view this pick as a luxury selection, too. Washington is one of the most impressive players in the draft class from an upside perspective, though. Yes, he was the No. 2 tight end at Georgia behind Brock Bowers and caught just 28 passes for two touchdowns in 2022, but scouts are in love with the potential he brings at 6-7 and 270 pounds with open-field agility, speed, length and power.

“I’ve never seen a tight end with his size, strength and speed,” said one longtime area scout at the Senior Bowl. Washington immediately gives Jalen Hurts a post-up option in the red zone, and, given his ability as a blocker, he will quickly provide Philadelphia the chance to run two-tight end sets; Washington and Dallas Goedert would create a ton of mismatches.

You can see his 2^nd round selections here.-