The NFL is still working out what the offseason programs will look like, but part-virtual, part-actual seems to be forming.  Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:

The NFL was fully remote during 2020 offseason programs, but they do not expect that to be the case this offseason.

Earlier this week, the NFL told teams that offseason programs can begin on April 19 without offering any word on whether they will include in-person work. On Wednesday, they moved on to that important piece of information.

PFT has obtained a copy of the memo that the league sent to all teams informing them that programs will be conducted remotely when they start next month. The league also said that it does not anticipate the programs being virtual throughout the entire offseason.

Given the ongoing pandemeic, any in-person portions of the offseason program will not look like past editions but the exact nature of the protocols that will be in place have not been announced at this point.

– – –

Here are the opponents for the new 17^th game with the NFC always on the road:

Away Team                            Home Team

NFC East                                AFC East

1. Washington                         1. Buffalo Bills

2. New York Giants                2. Miami Dolphins

3. Dallas Cowboys                  3. New England Patriots

4. Philadelphia Eagles 4. New York Jets

NFC West                               AFC North

1. Seattle Seahawks               1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Los Angeles Rams              2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Arizona Cardinals                3. Cleveland Browns

4. San Francisco 49ers           4. Cincinnati Bengals

NFC South                              AFC South

1. New Orleans Saints            1. Tennessee Titans

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers     2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Carolina Panthers               3. Houston Texans

4. Atlanta Falcons                   4. Jacksonville Jaguars

NFC North                              AFC West

1. Green Bay Packers                        1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Chicago Bears                    2. Las Vegas Raiders

3. Minnesota Vikings               3. Los Angeles Chargers

4. Detroit Lions                        4. Denver Broncos

In the other interconference games, it is:

NFC East vs. AFC West

NFC North vs. AFC North

NFC South vs. AFC East

NFC West vs. AFC South

NFC NORTH

DETROIT

QB JARED GOFF made a cool million when the NFL expanded the schedule.  Kevin Patra of NFL.com explains:

The NFL adding a 17th game in 2021 means another cash infusion for some highly paid players.

According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, new Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff will get an extra game check worth nearly $1.509 million at the end of the 2021 regular season thanks to the added 17th game, per sources informed of the situation.

Goff’s payday is the largest “bonus” among dozens of players who will get paid out due to the CBA provision for contracts signed before Feb. 26, 2020. The collective bargaining agreement was ratified last offseason.

Goff, who was traded from the Los Angeles Rams to the Lions, signed a four-year extension in 2019 in L.A. worth $134 million.

Per Pelissero, other players set to earn at least an extra $1 million in 2021 due to their large base salaries: Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Aaron Donald, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Frank Clark, Von Miller, Khalil Mack and Demarcus Lawrence.

In order to qualify for the added salary for a 17th game, players must make more than the minimum salary on contracts signed before Feb. 26, 2020 — the day the CBA was essentially finalized — and not substantially renegotiated since (i.e., more significant than a simple restructure).

In 2021, extra game checks funded are from the performance-based pay pool (up to $48 million) and rookie redistribution fund, per Pelissero, therefore are counted as benefits, not salary, and aren’t counted against the cap.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

LB JORDAN HICKS remains a Cardinal – at a reduced salary.  Charean Williams ofProFootballTalk.com:

Linebacker Jordan Hicks accepted a pay cut to remain with the Cardinals for 2021, Howard Balzer ofSI.com reports.

Hicks signed a four-year, $34 million contract with the Cardinals in 2019, a deal that included $20 million guaranteed the first two years. His contract called for a $5 million base salary this year with a $1 million roster bonus.

Hicks was scheduled to count $9 million against the cap in 2021.

The restructuring will reduce the cap charge by $3 million this season, according to Balzer. Hicks’ base salary now is $2 million with another $1 million available via per-game roster bonuses.

Hicks, 28, has started all 32 games in his two seasons in Arizona. He has 268 tackles, four interceptions, 10 pass breakups, 1.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

AFC WEST

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Adam Schein of NFL.com picks a Cinderella team every year – and his record is pretty good.  This year, it is the Chargers.

The streak is over.

This is the spot in my annual column announcing my choice for the upcoming season’s Cinderella team where I normally recount my string of past successes. The 2017 Jaguars reached the AFC title game. The 2018 Bears captured their first division title in eight years. The 2019 Bills won double-digit games for the first time since 1999.

And the 2020 Cardinals … well, the 2020 Cardinals lost to two backup quarterbacks in the final two weeks of the season, falling out of the playoff race and finishing 8-8. For the first time in four years, my Cinderella team missed the postseason.

I’m still annoyed, even if this isn’t technically supposed to be a playoff pick. Nevertheless, I remain undaunted in my search for a sleeper who can capture the hearts and minds of a nation. And unlike last year, when the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the sports world, I can seek inspiration from what has arguably been the best NCAA men’s basketball tournament ever.

Thinking about the way Pac-12 teams have repeatedly shocked the experts, with 11th-seeded UCLA’s stunning win over top-seeded Michigan in the Elite Eight capping a record-setting run of upsets by the Bruins, 12th-seeded Oregon State, seventh-seeded Oregon and sixth-seeded USC, I found myself channeling the words of the great Coolio:

Ain’t no party like a West Coast party, ’cause a West Coast party don’t stop!

He’s right. And the party baton is about to be carried into the NFL season by my 2021 Cinderella team: the Los Angeles Chargers.

The key in this exercise is identifying a team that did not make the playoffs last season and that is not on the radar of most people (which rules out teams like the Cowboys, who should be favorites in the NFC East with Dak Prescott returning). I know the Chargers seem to attract offseason buzz like it’s their business, but they also have regularly failed to make good on it — meaning they are, in a way, an ideal post-hype-ish choice.

Plus, like Cinderella’s slipper, the Bolts just feel right.

It starts with the quarterback. Regular readers (and listeners and viewers) know I’ve been obsessed with Justin Herbert since long before Los Angeles’ brilliant decision to draft him sixth overall last year. I was enamored with Herbert’s arm, athleticism, accuracy, smarts, leadership and poise, and how it could translate into instant NFL stardom. It all came to fruition in a debut season for the ages, with the former Oregon Duck throwing for 4,336 yards and 31 TDs (against just 10 picks) before capturing the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He developed a tremendous rapport with underrated star receiver Keenan Allen while showing he’s the kind of special player who elevates everyone around him. The kid has it.

And that’s just what we saw last year, when he started off as a backup who had to adjust to the NFL during a COVID-limited offseason. Think of what Herbert will be able to do in 2021, entering as an entrenched starter.

Think of what he’ll be able to do with a new coach.

I love ex-Chargers coach Anthony Lynn, who earned my vote for Coach of the Year in 2018, when he helped the team to a 12-4 record and playoff berth. He’s a great person. But the team was dropping too many close games, racking up more defeats by seven points or less (15) in the past two seasons than any other NFL team in that span, and Lynn’s game-management was a significant problem. Losing was becoming too normal. A change was needed.

Brandon Staley is the right guy at the right time. While there is always an unknown surrounding first-year coaches, Staley represents a calculated upgrade. The well-respected defensive whiz, whose players seemed to loved playing for him in previous stops with the Rams, Broncos and Bears, will end the run of “you can’t make ’em up” losses that has been dogging the Chargers.

Yes, what really gets me excited about this team is thinking about all the additions that were made to help Herbert, from Staley to Corey Linsley, who will be worth every single penny of his five-year, $62.5 million deal as the new leader of the offensive line. I raved about the fit and contract in this space last week — he’s the best center in football. Tight end Jared Cook, filling in for the departed Hunter Henry on a one-year deal, is a great replacement who will be able to groove with the QB.

And I cannot wait to see what general manager Tom Telesco does with the 13th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Telesco is a huge part of this. He’s a brilliant talent evaluator, and he’s loaded the roster with promising players who haven’t even reached their peak yet. Think of their overlooked depth and ability at running back (2020 fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley) and receiver (former undrafted players Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson).

One year ago, a few months after Telesco picked linebacker Kenneth Murray with a second first-rounder, I made the case that the Chargers’ defense was the best in the NFL. While Murray was terrific as a tackling machine, logging 107 total tackles (second-most among rookies last season), I had to back off that bold claim when safety Derwin James was lost for the 2020 season. James will be back, and he will thrive in Staley’s dynamic and diverse scheme. Joey Bosa is a flat-out monster at defensive end, one of the best defensive players in the sport. He’s a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks — and I think Staley can make him even better. That’s scary.

Obviously, it will be tough to win the AFC West, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs loom. But I love this Chargers group, which is just silly with upside. The right people are in place — and they will get me back on track after the Cardinals let me down last year.

The slipper will go back on that foot. And somewhere, Coolio will be smiling. Because this West Coast party is going to roll long past midnight.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

QB DESHAUN WATSON’s attorney, Randy Hardin, is not in his first rodeo.  He fires back with 18 therapists on the record with statements in support of his client.  Mike Florio ofProFootballTalk.com put all of them out there (we have edited some out for brevity):

None of the 21 women who have sued Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson of misconduct during massages have attached their names to the lawsuits. On Wednesday, 18 message therapists who have worked with Watson issued comments regarding his behavior during massage sessions.

All 18 have attached their names to their statements, which were provided to PFT by Watson’s lawyer, Rusty Hardin.

The 18 massage therapists are: Myah Roberson, Sara Fetherolf, Kaleigh Galindo, Masako Jones, Luretia Dany Craig, Norma Reyna, Kam Phommyuong, Nalisha Storm, Dr. Arielle Ball, Jas Brooks, Ashley Thomas, LaWonda Howard, Nadiyah Luqman, Ana Compean, Raechal Martin, Joanne Brito, Tina Nguyen, and Kya Hillman.

The statements extend beyond vouching for Watson, however. Some criticize and/or challenge the plaintiffs.

Said Roberson of Watson: “I started working with Deshaun in December 2019 after being referred to him by another therapist. He sent me a screenshot of a diagram that the head trainer of the Texans gave him, highlighting the muscles that needed to be worked on, which included the groin and hamstrings. He asked if I felt comfortable working on those areas and I said yes, because I am used to working on athletes. During the massage, Deshaun was more comfortable using a towel than draping sheets over the table; this isn’t unusual at all. I have several clients that prefer using a towel over sheet. We began using a towel, and that became the norm. When I saw that the first lawsuit mentioned a towel, I chuckled because I gave him that idea. And it’s not inappropriate because they teach you in massage school that using a towel is okay. Some of these accusations are so ludicrous. I just can’t see him doing any of those things. He was never inappropriate with me. I never felt threatened in any way.”

From Fetherolf: “On July 16, 2020, I performed a very thorough massage on Deshaun, focusing on his lower back, hips and groin, at a home he was renting while visiting Los Angeles. He is one of the most professional athletes I ever worked on. When the session was over, Deshaun helped me put away my table and walked me to my car. Because it was already quite late, Deshaun texted me during my drive home to make sure I had gotten home safely. My experience was nothing like the plaintiffs are describing. I don’t believe they are being truthful.”

From Galindo: “I worked on Deshaun Watson several times from August to December in 2020. He was respectful in every session. I never had any issues with him being inappropriate. Focus areas requested were hip flexors, groin [adductors], glutes, hamstrings, quads, lower back, abdominals. These are common areas of strain with pro athletes, especially those who play his position. He was always hospitable and communicated to make sure I always felt comfortable and safe. Many people idolize Deshaun Watson and perceive him as a legend. However, in getting to know him, I know he’s just your regular 25-year-old.”

From Jones: “I have worked with Deshaun several times since October 2019 and he’s never been anything other than professional and polite. We would focus on areas that were strained or injured, his shoulder, quads, calves, adductors, glutes, feet, things like that. That’s not odd or inappropriate; you have to think about how athletes use their bodies, the stances they’re in, how they move during games. All of those areas are typical, especially for football players. Deshaun never made me feel uncomfortable or intimidated. He’s rather quiet compared to other professional athletes I’ve worked with. I am just completely floored by these lawsuits. The behavior described in them doesn’t sound like him at all. I can’t even imagine him saying those things or doing those things.”

From Craig: “I massaged Deshaun three times. He was always pleasant. I never had any uncomfortable or inappropriate experiences with him. He often listened to his music and said very little. During my career, unfortunately I have experienced inappropriate situations where I stopped a massage. This never happened with Deshaun.”

From Reyna: “I frequently observed Deshaun attending sessions with another therapist who works in the same building next door to me. I have never observed Deshaun acting in an inappropriate manner and he never appeared to make anyone uncomfortable.”

From Phommyuong: “I first met Deshaun about three years ago. He was a regular of ours, and I worked on him twice — both times a combo Tai and deep tissue massage. He wore boxers for both sessions. I found him to very polite and respectful. I didn’t even know he was a professional football player during his first appointment. Myself and my co-workers were really shocked to hear about the lawsuits and allegations, because Deshaun never hinted at or did anything improper.”

From Brooks: “I began providing massage therapy to Deshaun in 2018 and have massaged him at least 40 times since then. I worked with him once or twice a week during the season and as needed during the off season.”

From Luqman: “I massaged Deshaun on August 12, 2020 at my office in Houston. He asked me to pay attention to his glutes, hamstrings and abductors. This was consistent with requests I have received from other athletes I have worked with in the past. He was always respectful and quiet, and I never felt uncomfortable.”

From Compean: “I first met Deshaun in 2017 at a spa where I worked, which he would visit once or twice a week. I worked on him six or seven times over the next three years. He would always want his back, shoulder and arms massaged, and he asked for deep tissue massages as well. Deshaun was always draped during massages and a couple of times he even asked for an extra towel because he was cold. He was completely covered. He never said much during the massage, he was very quiet. He would always say ‘yes ma’am or no ma’am.’ I never had any problem with him and I never heard anyone say anything bad about Deshaun.”

From Martin: “I massaged Deshaun four times at his house and at the Houstonian. When we first met, he asked if I was comfortable with glutes, lower legs, and groin and I said yes. As an athletic trainer, this was a normal request. Deshaun barely talked; he was super quiet and passive. He has been one of the easiest clients I have ever had. That’s what makes these accusations against him so infuriating. Any licensed therapist knows that you may graze the penis during the course of the massage and you are taught how to address it professionally. You are also taught that the therapist is in charge and to immediately speak up if something makes you uncomfortable.”

From Brito: “I started treating Deshaun in early 2020 and have provided him massage therapy three to five times in all, the last time being in November 2020. He tells you what areas he wants worked on – usually groin, glutes and abs, which is normal for athletes. I always found him to be polite, respectful, professional and absolutely nonaggressive.”

This list of comments from 18 different women who provided massage therapy to Watson stands in stark contrast to the allegations, all of which have been made without names being named. The accounts represent, in our view, the first major step taken by Deshaun Watson and his lawyers to defend himself in the court of public opinion.

Of course, it’s possible that all 39 individuals (plus the woman who spoke to SI.com and has not sued) are telling the truth, and that Watson only acted inappropriately with the 19 who has sued him. With 18 massage therapists putting their names on accounts of their positive experiences with Watson, attorney Tony Buzbee may feel compelled to provide something more substantial and more specific as it relates to his 21 clients.

How many massages does Watson get?  40+ therapists!  One, Jas Brooks, gave him 4o massages herself.  From someone who has had two messages in his life, a much longer life than Watson, that seems like a lot.

A thread from Clay Travis:

@ClayTravis

Based on his own attorney’s statement today and the women filing sexual assault lawsuits, we now know Deshaun Watson had at least 40 different masseuses in the past couple of years. How many pro athletes do you think have had 40 different masseuses in the past couple of years?

@ClayTravis

Watson’s attorney released names & statements of 18 different women he didn’t sexually assault during massages. That’s like being accused of robbing ten banks & having bankers at ten other banks testify you didn’t rob them so you couldn’t have robbed the other banks either.

@ClayTravis

All these statements did is confirm Watson was paying for massages from dozens and dozens of different women. Which I’ve never heard of any other pro athlete doing. Usually athlete masseuses are like personal trainers, once you find one you like you keep them.

Former NFL player Stephen White has similar thoughts:

@sgw94

Ive literally never heard of a football player using a bunch of different massage therapists. You usually find one and stick with em becuz its not easy to find a therapist that can do a good job on athletes. That’s only one reason Watson looks sketch in my eyes, but its a big one

Why hasn’t attorney Tony Buzbee taken his cases to the Houston PD?  He mentions the son of rival attorney Hardin as a reason for his hesitancy:

“Our team has been roundly criticized because these numerous brave women haven’t filed formal criminal complaints with HPD (although we have provided info to other organizations),” Buzbee said on Instagram. “Here is my worry. When I ran for Houston mayor against the CURRENT mayor, I called for the resignation of the former police chief. I was thus reluctant initially in these important cases to provide info to HPD, at least while Art Acevedo was the Police Chief — even though my brother-in-law is a long-term HPD officer. Mr. Acevedo has now left Houston for Miami. Yet, I’ve since learned that my legal opponent, Mr. Hardin, has a son who is on of the exclusive Command Staff of HPD. I am not saying in any way that Deshaun Watson’s lawyer, Mr. Hardin, has a son who has a position that would compromise HPD and its investigation. I support his service, along with all Houston police officers — I think the rank and file know that. But, I am saying that me and my clients will go elsewhere to provide our evidence to investigative authorities. Stand by.”

This is the first that Buzbee has said regarding any hesitation he has when it comes to providing information to the Houston Police Department. It also seems odd to think that the authorities would disregard or overlook claims made by 19 different women based on factors other than whether the authorities believe, based on the evidence provided, that a crime has been committed. Buzbee isn’t one of the victims; he’s their lawyer. The notion that the Houston Police Department would take a dim view of his clients’ efforts to seek justice simply because of the identity of their lawyer takes cynicism to new heights. (It also suggests that the best interests of these women arguably would be better served by hiring different counsel.)

Buzbee prefaced his comments regarding his concerns about the Houston Police Department with the following message to the media generally: “This is our legal team’s response to the hundreds of requests we have received at our Houston office for comment; even though we have an extensive staff, your inquiries are overwhelming! We will continue to conform our conduct to the ethical rules for lawyers in Texas. We take our obligations very seriously. We will say this once, and encourage those inquiring to pay attention to our public filings, rather than lawyer statements in the media. These Deshaun Watson cases continue to mount; we filed two more public cases today.”

Where is “elsewhere” other than HPD?

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND

Owner Bob Kraft on why he spent $160 million.  Jimmy Golen of The AP:

New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft denied on Wednesday that the team’s unprecedented free agent spending spree this offseason was in response to watching Tom Brady win the Super Bowl in Tampa Bay.

Speaking with reporters, Kraft also blamed Cam Newton’s poor results last season on COVID-19. The 2015 NFL MVP, who threw for only eight touchdowns in his first year with New England, tested positive for the disease and missed one game, then presided over three straight losses when he returned.

“I’m not sure he had the proper weapons around him, then he got COVID,” Kraft said. “When he got going, he was playing pretty well. But he’s more familiar with what goes on here, just like younger players from last year. And we’ll see what happens this year.”

Winners of nine AFC titles and six Super Bowls in 19 seasons with Brady as quarterback, the Patriots stumbled to a 7-9 record last year after the three-time NFL MVP signed with the Buccaneers. Kraft said the Patriots could have maneuvered to keep Brady, but it was “not the right thing” to do.

“Look, I would have loved for him to have retired as a Patriot. Everybody knew that. But in life, things just happen in a way that you have to balance a lot of things,” Kraft said. “After 20 years, I thought that he was entitled to make a decision that was best for him and where he was at. We gave him the ability to do that.

“It’s like marriages sometimes,” Kraft added. “Everybody on the outside doesn’t always know what’s going on.”

Kraft said watching Brady win the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers was not as painful as watching the Patriots flop. After winning 11 straight AFC East titles — and 16 of the previous 17 — New England finished in third place in the division and below .500 for the first time since 2000, coach Bill Belichick’s first season with the team.

“I love Tom Brady, and he’s great. But he’s moved on. What happened here last year was not something to our liking and we had to make the corrections,” Kraft said.

“When you say ‘How did I feel?’ — it was horrible. After my family, the Patriots are the most important thing in my life,” he said. “The bottom line here is winning. That’s what this business is, and when we don’t, it’s not a good feeling.”

Hence, the spending spree.

The Patriots shelled out almost $160 million in guaranteed money in free agency — an NFL record, according to ESPN. Among the biggest names: linebacker Matthew Judon ($32 million guaranteed), tight ends Jonnu Smith ($31 million) and Hunter Henry ($25 million), and receiver Nelson Agholor ($15 million).

Kraft acknowledged it was uncharacteristic of Belichick to dive into the free agent pool so enthusiastically. He said the team’s 2020 results combined with an advantageous market to make this the time. He also said the team had “missed to a certain extent in the draft” and needed to make up for that.

“If ever there was a year, this would be a year to do it,” he said.

Also signing: Newton, who got a $3.5 million guarantee for one year despite throwing for just 2,657 yards, with 12 interceptions to go with his eight touchdowns. He did run for 12 TDs and broke Steve Grogan’s 42-year-old single-season franchise record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 592.

“In the end, I trust coach Belichick’s ability to build a team and put the right players in position,” Kraft said, adding that he expected better things this season from both Newton and Jarrett Stidham, a 2019 fourth-round draft choice from Auburn who lost the backup job to journeyman Brian Hoyer last season. “I’m not sure Jarrett has ever really gotten a fair shot.

“Long term, we have to find a way for Jarrett Stidham or someone new we bring in — one way or another, we have to get that position solidified,” Kraft said.

“This isn’t someone where you‘ve got algebraic formulas” to figure it out, he said. “Think of the personnel wizards who passed on Tom Brady. No one knows what’s going to happen.”

THIS AND THAT

2021 DRAFT

Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com uses her mastery of football analytics to post her second Mock Draft of 2021 wherein she tells us what each NFL team would do if it knew what she knows.

We knew we were in for an active start to NFL free agency, but it has been even more exciting than I anticipated — and it likely isn’t done surprising us yet. Add in some interesting pro days, and the picture of how the events of this spring will shape the 2021 regular season is starting to come into focus.

That said, it seems like the right time to fire up my next mock with just under a month to go before the 2021 NFL Draft. And remember, my analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2021, and only trades that have actually occurred are included. So, before you read any further, take note:

I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day.

For this particular file, the model considered current rosters, the market of remaining free agents and 2021 draft prospects.

1 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence

Clemson · QB · Junior

No change here from my first mock, but how about an advanced nugget? Lawrence’s résumé includes being asked to throw a lot of quick passes (like screens). In terms of getting his feet and hips set quickly in order to execute these passes, he ranks in the top two percent of my eight-season sample (percentage of quick passes where a QB’s base was set in 1.5 seconds or less). This is important because quarterbacks who demonstrated stable bases in the sample translated to the NFL on quick passes at a faster rate than those who were not able to get set quickly. It took almost two full games for those who fell in the top five percent. This suggests Lawrence should be able to execute quick passes with a shorter learning curve (i.e., be more productive early on as a pro).

2 – New York Jets

Rashawn Slater

Northwestern · OT · Senior

Same general offensive line theme as my first mock, where I matched the Jets with Penei Sewell as a presumable right tackle. This time, my model gives a slight edge to Slater due to his versatility to play guard or tackle and be multiple right out the gate. The Jets have not addressed their very needy O-line this offseason beyond adding C Dan Feeney. This pick at No. 2 also reflects the positive addition of RB Tevin Coleman, whose scheme familiarity with new Jets OC Mike LaFleur means the spaces Slater could clear would hold even more value.

Here’s my strategy note: It’s logical to assume that the Niners have some idea of what the Jets are up to and vice-versa, especially given the number of San Francisco coaches who just relocated to Florham Park. It’s not anything unfair or unusual — it would have been smart of the Dolphins to presumably leverage this in their trade haul for No. 3 — but this does strongly point to QB as the position selected here, and BYU’s Zach Wilson is the strongest rumored selection. That said, the general point of this mock is to maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2021. My model gives Sam Darnold a 4.25 win share as the Jets’ 2021 starter, while Wilson adds 3.93 wins.

And hey, we’re in the thick of mock draft season. You’ve all seen a million first-round projections with Wilson going to the Jets. So … what if they actually stick with Darnold and go another route? An approach, I might add, that no one has conclusively ruled out. How would that impact Round 1 as a whole? This is a useful thought exercise!

3 – San Francisco 49ers

Zach Wilson

BYU · QB · Junior

The 49ers traded up nine spots — giving up two additional first-rounders and a third — to target one position and one position only: quarterback. They’re not even trying to hide it at this point, with head coach Kyle Shanahan admitting that the Niners feared being “left at the altar” in the QB derby if they had stayed in their original draft slot. Exploring a draft pick at any other position in this blurb would just seem like a pointless pursuit at this point. So, which QB would San Francisco take if Trevor Lawrence were the only one off the board?

My model takes into account each team’s current status: roster makeup, opponents, scheme, etc. And with Wilson’s ability in play-action matching well with Shanahan’s system, the model gives him a 4.27 win share. Alabama QB Mac Jones, whose name keeps cropping up around the Niners, would add 3.77 wins.

4 – Atlanta Falcons

Kwity Paye

Michigan · Edge · Senior

Paye remains the optimal pick for Atlanta, but the gap between the next-best selection has narrowed. Drafting cornerback Patrick Surtain II to pair with last season’s first-rounder, A.J. Terrell, is the Falcons’ second-best option.

5 – Cincinnati Bengals

Penei Sewell

Oregon · OT · Junior

Who’s most likely the biggest fan of my mock? Joe Burrow.

6 – Miami Dolphins

Kyle Pitts

Florida · TE · Junior

A good strategy note based on the Fins’ recent trades: selecting just three slots lower generates a huge return. Sure, it may tip their hand that quarterback is not a focus in this draft, but it provides a ton of flexibility. Just to add context, let’s do the trade-chart math: If you use the Jimmy Johnson chart, which is basically the gold standard, the third overall pick is worth 2,200 points, while the sixth is 1,600. So the difference is 600. Guess which pick is valued at 600? Pick 31 (second-to-last in Round 1). Mr. Grier, if you’re reading this (and I hope you are, because that would be really cool), well done.

One last note: The difference between adding Ja’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts is very slight.

7 – Detroit Lions

Ja’Marr Chase

LSU · WR · Junior

Should the Dolphins select Chase at No. 6, the next-best pick to increase the Lions’ 2021 win total is linebacker Micah Parsons.

8 – Carolina Panthers

Trey Lance

North Dakota State · QB · Sophomore (RS)

Christian McCaffrey’s skill set has a big impact on helping shorten Lance’s learning curve.

That said, I love a good hypothetical moment, so let’s play with the model in a world with trades. The Panthers could shake things up league-wide. Let’s say a QB like Jimmy Garoppolo or even Sam Darnold were to come available at a reasonable enough (or even favorable) cost, and the Panthers were to go that route. If they don’t end up needing a QB on draft day, they’d match up with a corner here — and they could also leverage another team’s desire to snag a QB prospect in the first round into a nice gain. In other words, Carolina doesn’t have to acquire an elite-level QB to drive a big change in their potential.

9 – Denver Broncos

Justin Fields

Ohio State · QB · Junior

Same pick here as last time. Denver is in an interesting spot, with the opportunity to trade up or down, depending on the strategy at the QB position. If the team wants to add a first-round QB, Fields is a fit, but a prospect who forecasts to be in the range of a late-first or early second-round pick (that is, in the trade-down range) and who really pops for the Broncos is Michigan tackle Jalen Mayfield, who would slot in on the right side of the offensive line. Personally, I would also love to see what coach Vic Fangio would do with linebacker Zaven Collins, who also projects in that same trade-down range. Given Fangio’s teaching ability, Collins’ ability to limit both catches and yards after the catch when in coverage projects at a rate that is in the top 15 percent of the 15-season sample.

10 – Dallas Cowboys

Patrick Surtain II

Alabama · CB · Junior

Projected press production on third downs drives this pick, which looks like one of the best fits for any selection in this first round. According to my model, Surtain is the corner with the highest ceiling.

11 – New York Giants

Gregory Rousseau

Miami · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Versatility of alignment, along with big-time upside, drives this. In my previous mock, I had Rousseau going to the Cowboys at No. 10 overall, but now he actually projects to most likely be drafted in the 20s, meaning this could be a prime situation for the G-Men to consider a trade down, especially with Alijah Vera-Tucker, whom I forecast at guard, also potentially falling to that range. With the possibility that these two high-value-add options could still be available, moving down to add draft capital might be a smart risk.

12 – Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith

Alabama · WR · Senior

In my draft forecast model, which is what I use to determine the likelihood of a prospect being available at a position when trades are possible, Smith and his Alabama teammate, Jaylen Waddle, have intersecting volatility bubbles — which just means they are closely rated, and there are solid reason for each to be chosen ahead or behind the other. Smith is a more precise route runner, which drives him being slightly more valuable in my models. (Teams use this type of thing to help see how proposed trades impact player availability; the draft forecast model produces a percent likelihood.)

13 – Los Angeles Chargers

Christian Darrisaw

Virginia Tech · OT · Junior

Second-happiest person to read my mock draft? Justin Herbert.

14 – Minnesota Vikings

Alijah Vera-Tucker

USC · OG · Junior (RS)

This is the same selection for the Vikings that I had in 1.0, but now Vera-Tucker looks like an even stronger fit with Minnesota, given Kyle Rudolph’s exit and very few offensive adds. Unclear whether Kirk Cousins or Dalvin Cook will be happier with this one.

15 – New England Patriots

Jaylen Waddle

Alabama · WR · Junior

Remember, this is a mock focused on maximizing wins next season, and Cam Newton has a lot of value.

16 – Arizona Cardinals

Jaycee Horn

South Carolina · CB · Junior

Adding Horn to the net impact of free-agent signings CB Malcolm Butler and DE J.J. Watt is a big gut punch to opposing passing games.

17 – Las Vegas Raiders

Micah Parsons

Penn State · LB · Junior

Parsons is listed as a linebacker in the program, but defending the slot in coverage is one of his strengths that forecasts to pay immediate dividends. The Raiders would be well-served to address the interior of their O-line in Round 2.

18 – Miami Dolphins

Jaelan Phillips

Miami · Edge · Junior (RS)

His burst from the line of scrimmage to 5 yards traveled after the snap was third-best in the FBS last season, and the Dolphins’ front had the fourth-slowest burst in the league.

19 – Washington Football Team

Teven Jenkins

Oklahoma State · OT · Senior (RS)

Another trade target is Ron Rivera’s squad. Left tackle is the optimal selection, and the level of competition Jenkins faced in college helps drive his quick adoption of the NFL playbook (on either side of the line).

20 – Chicago Bears

Greg Newsome II

Northwestern · CB · Junior

With Kyle Fuller’s departure in free agency, the Bears need to reinforce the back end of the defense. Newsome’s floor is very high — and on this team, with this front, he’ll be impactful in 2021, with his quick learning curve.

21 – Indianapolis Colts

Azeez Ojulari

Georgia · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

The need of a pass rush drives the pick value here, but wide receiver also pops.

22 – Tennessee Titans

Rashod Bateman

Minnesota · WR · Junior

The Titans added Josh Reynolds after losing Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith in free agency, but my model’s pass-catching quotient fuels the selection of this versatile wideout.

23 – New York Jets

Caleb Farley

Virginia Tech · CB · Junior (RS)

The Jets still take a cornerback here. Farley’s recent injury news — though the expectation is that he’ll be cleared for full activities before the start of training camp — dropped him from the best CB in my model to the fourth-best. The Jets’ upside of this pick has gone nowhere, though.

24 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Jalen Mayfield

Michigan · OT · Sophomore (RS)

Even with a lot of replenishing defensive pieces available — and no certainty at the running back position — my model strongly suggests taking the right tackle.

25 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Notre Dame · LB · Junior (RS)

This pick stays the same, though my model also likes TCU safety Trevon Moehrig here.

26 – Cleveland Browns

Jamin Davis

Kentucky · LB · Junior (RS)

I love what the Browns have done so far this offseason. To be honest, we aren’t talking about it enough. Inserting Davis into the middle of the defense is a potentially huge upside add.

27 – Baltimore Ravens

Terrace Marshall Jr.

LSU · WR · Junior

Even with the addition of Sammy Watkins in free agency, this move optimizes offensive gains.

28 – New Orleans Saints

Kadarius Toney

Florida · WR · Senior

No change here from 1.0, but if a quarterback like Mac Jones is available … Hmm …

29 – Green Bay Packers

Rondale Moore

Purdue · WR · Junior

The Packers have been relatively stagnant in terms of offseason activity, increasing the questions and uncertainty they’re facing, but adding Moore would help boost the pass-catching potential.

30 – Buffalo Bills

Christian Barmore

Alabama · DT · Sophomore (RS)

This would be a — quite literally — huge get for Buffalo. When considering the current DT market, this pairing drives a ton of value.

31 – Kansas City Chiefs

Samuel Cosmi

Texas · OT · Junior (RS)

One thing seems to be clear: Andy Reid wants to restructure his offensive line.

32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jayson Oweh

Penn State · Edge · Sophomore (RS)

Oweh’s speed and versatility land him in Tampa, and the growth potential under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles proves this to be an insanely good fit.