The Daily Briefing Thursday, April 13, 2023

CHICAGO

GM Ryan Poles on the whys and wherefores of the trade with Carolina:

The Carolina Panthers currently have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft after a huge trade last month with the Chicago Bears, who had the top pick heading into the offseason. The Bears traded their first overall pick for the No. 9 pick, a 2023 second-rounder, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round selection and wide receiver D.J. Moore.

The deal was able to be done rather quickly as Bears general manager Ryan Poles had clear and strong interest from the Panthers. Poles gave some insight into what the Panthers are after in the draft on an episode of the Bears’ “1920 Football Drive” series.

“I knew from the jump that [the Panthers] were a team that really wanted their quarterback,” Poles said. “They wanted to control the draft. That meant a lot to them. They got in front early, at the combine. I had a good relationship with their general manager, Scott Fitterer, and felt like at that time it was best to close on the deal when we did, instead of dragging it out.”

As it stands right now, the Panthers have quarterbacks Andy Dalton, Matt Corral and Jacob Eason on their roster. Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) and Anthony Richardson (Florida) are expected to be the first three quarterbacks taken. Young and Stroud are predicted as the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in all of CBS Sports’ latest mock drafts, with most experts expecting Young to get picked first.

Young is also the highest-listed quarterback in our NFL Draft Prospect Rankings at No. 2 overall. Stroud is No. 4 overall.

The Panthers clearly want a quarterback and were after the Bears’ pick, but they were not the only ones wanting to make the trade. Poles wanted to accept the deal while he was being offered a top value.

“It was calm and cool for a while, and then it turned into pretty much pacing all day long,” Poles said. “It’s so fluid. It shifts and changes all the time when you’re talking with different teams. Some teams are super aggressive. Some are playing in the gray, and you kind of have to read between the lines.”

Poles previously said he did not wait around to accept the deal because he knew teams could change their minds as they see prospects play more. A bad Pro Day for a prospect could make a team offer less for the top pick.

A lot of teams reportedly reached out about the pick and the Panthers came out as the winners, thanks to the bundle they offered, specifically adding star receiver Moore.

“[I] felt comfortable moving forward with Scott and Carolina,” Poles said. “It helped us today with D.J. Moore, but also down the road with future draft picks.”

GREEN BAY

The Packers apparently don’t want the Jets 2023 first round pick for a one-year rental of QB AARON RODGERS.  They’ll settle for the second round pick AND A FIRST ROUND PICK IN 2024.  Hence, no trade.  Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:

Last month, Packers G.M. Brian Gutekunst admitted that the team won’t necessarily get a first-round pick for quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

That apparently hasn’t stopped them from trying.

Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports recently said on the Wilde and Tausch show that the Packers still want a second-round pick in 2023 and a first-round pick in 2024 for the quarterback the Packers no longer want on the team.

Robinson added that the Packers are also willing to give a 2025 draft pick back to the Jets, if Rodgers retires after the 2023 season.

For now, what the Packers want and what the Jets will offer is meaningless. The two sides won’t move to their true bottom-line positions until the clock begins to strike 12. Prematurely sliding toward the best either side is willing to do can quickly become an expectation to do even better. The right move will be for both sides to unveil their best offers at the last minute and to hope the two circles of the Venn diagram at least kiss.

If not, someone will have to give a little at a time when the chariot is about to morph into a pumpkin. In this case, it would mean the Packers won’t get a second-round pick in 2023. It also could mean that they’ll wait until 2024 to get any draft-pick compensation for Rodgers.

Regardless, there’s no reason to think the deal won’t get done. If it’s not done before the 2023 draft comes and goes, it will come after that. It will happen no later than Week One.

Unless the Packers really are willing to adopt the approach Bakhtiari suggested earlier this week, paying Rodgers nearly $60 million this year to not play.

WASHINGTON

The next owner of Washington’s football team will not be Jeff Bezos.  Ben Standig and other authors at The Athletic:

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos does not plan on bidding for ownership of the Washington Commanders, according to multiple reports. Here’s what you need to know:

Bezos, who owns The Washington Post, hired an investment firm in February to look into a possible bid for the NFL team.

Bezos’ net worth is $120.9 billion, according to Forbes.

Washington owner Daniel Snyder took control of the franchise in 1999. In November, he hired Bank of America Securities to “consider potential transactions.”

Sources briefed on the negotiations told The Athletic in March of two bids being submitted: A group led by billionaire Josh Harris — whose sports holdings include the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils — and a group led by Canadian billionaire Steve Apostolopoulos. Tilman Fertitta, who owns the Houston Rockets, told CNBC on Wednesday he submitted a bid for $5.6 billion but “at some point you need to draw a line in the sand.”

The Athletic’s instant analysis:

What this means for the other potential bidders

Bezos’ role in the sale of the NFL’s Washington franchise has often felt like wishing more than reality. Yes, the Amazon founder has long been mentioned as a potential future NFL owner, he hired an investment banking firm, Allen. & Co., to help study the Commanders’ situation and has become part of the high-end social scene in the nation’s capital. But that’s not the same as actually going through the checkpoints of a bidding process like the Harris group.

There is wiggle room for Bezos to pivot from “nah” to “let’s go,” but Harris and his fellow investors including Magic Johnson have been more direct about their intentions. The sale has felt close for a bit now but nothing is done until an agreement is reached and the other 31 owners approve a deal. If Bezos is definitively out, and unless the Canadian billionaire’s bid is fleshed out to indicate stronger intention, the path is clear for Harris to score an NFL franchise. — Standig

Why Bezos was long shot to buy Commanders

There is a process to buying an NFL team. Bidders are vetted, often with the help of the league, and a sales timeline is outlined by the team, usually through an investment adviser. There is a preliminary stage where vetted prospective buyers get access to financials before submitting a non-binding proposal. Then the wheat gets separated from the chaff and serious bidders emerge for stage one, and sometimes two and three of real bidding. And it’s usually around this time that names start getting floated, commonly a tactic by the sellers to get the real bidders to up their price.

Toronto businessman Steve Apostolopoulos likely fell into this category. After all, the numbers did not add up for someone with a reported net worth of $3.9 billion bidding on a likely $6 billion-plus asset. His interest in the Ottawa Senators seems more logical.

And in the end, Bezos likely got floated too, even though he was blocked from bidding. Suddenly in the last few weeks tweets and stories began emerging that Bezos was free to bid. Whether he ever really wanted the team is a mystery, he did hire an investment bank to advise. But by not formally taking part in the bidding process, it always seemed like a long shot he would end up being the buyer. — Kaplan

CAROLINA

Adam Schefter of ESPN.com is confident that QB BRYCE YOUNG is the first overall pick.  Joseph Salvador of SI.com:

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has consistently been considered the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft and ESPN’s Adam Schefter is so confident in the scenario that he doesn’t think Young should visit any other teams.

“Bryce Young is gonna visit the Houston Texans—I think it’s a waste of time,” Schefter said Wednesday. “I think the ship has sailed. I think Bryce Young is gonna be the No. 1 pick. They’re [Texans] not gonna have a chance to take the guy that, I think, they would’ve liked to have taken. So now they’re sitting there at No. 2 and what do you do?”

Houston could have gotten the No. 1 pick in the draft, but instead won its regular-season finale against the Colts and finished with the second-worst record in the league. The Bears finished with the worst 2022 season and went on to trade the top pick to the Panthers, who are expected to take Young.      

The ESPN analyst—along with most of the sports world—has been consistent on Carolina taking Young since March.

“Going into the process of evaluating the quarterbacks, I think that Bryce Young is the favorite to become the No. 1 overall pick,” he said last month.

Young won the Heisman during his sophomore year in 2021 and finished his junior season tallying 3,328 passing yards and 32 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. The NFL draft is scheduled to start on April 27 at 8 p.m. ET.

ARIZONA

Michael Bidwill can be charming, but the DB has been hearing unflattering things about him from behind the scenes for years.  Now, they are percolating to the surface.  Shalise Manza Young of YahooSports.com:

Are we absolutely sure the Washington Commanders’ Dan Snyder is the worst current NFL team owner?

Because the Arizona Cardinals’ Michael Bidwill seems to merit consideration based on headlines over the past year or so, and more recent allegations are of the type that, if true, are on par with Snyder’s myriad misdeeds.

Last week, former Cardinals front-office executive Terry McDonough filed an arbitration claim with the NFL alleging that Bidwill orchestrated and demanded the use of burner phones to communicate with then-general manager Steve Keim while Keim was serving a league-imposed suspension for extreme DUI in 2018. McDonough also accused Bidwill of mistreating pregnant and Black employees.

If confirmed, that alone should be enough for Bidwill to be sanctioned by commissioner Roger Goodell. The Cardinals and Bidwill denied the allegations in a lengthy statement.

But cheating isn’t the only claim McDonough made, and on Monday, Pro Football Talk obtained an email from a second former Cardinals exec that backed up several of his claims, including Bidwill’s behavior toward team office staffers and a claim that Bidwill shut down an employee survey when the early returns were unfavorable toward him.

These come weeks after the first NFL Players Association survey revealed that Arizona players graded the team at an F or F-minus in five of eight categories, including treatment of families, food service and nutrition, weight room, training room and locker room.

And they come months after the Cardinals agreed to a contract extension with quarterback Kyler Murray that included a preposterous homework clause that got leaked to media.

There’s also the Cardinals’ more direct inclusion in Brian Flores’ class-action lawsuit against the NFL alleging racial discrimination in hiring practices, with former Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks joining the lawsuit and alleging that Arizona hired him in 2018 as a “bridge coach” — basically, intending to fire him — and was dealt a difficult hand in his one 3-13 season with the team.

McDonough’s claim likely strengthens Wilks’ allegations. McDonough says that when told to break the rules by using a burner phone to communicate with Keim during his suspension, both he and Wilks pushed back, much like Flores says he refused to bow to demands from Dolphins owner Stephen Ross to tank during the 2019 season when Flores was Miami’s head coach. The NFL later ruled there was no evidence of intentional tanking.

McDonough says he was written up for “insubordination” for not wanting to use the burner phones, and was “cursed at, berated, formally reprimanded and ultimately demoted,” a move that he claims damaged his career.

As for Wilks, McDonough accuses the franchise owner of sabotaging the head coach before firing him to hire Kliff Kingsbury, a man propped up as an offensive guru despite producing just one winning season at Texas Tech when he had Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback.

As reported by Pro Football Talk and other outlets, former Cardinals vice president and chief operating officer Ron Minegar hand-delivered a letter to Bidwill in December 2019 that backs up several of McDonough’s claims, primarily his alleged tyrannical workplace behavior.

“You are not the guy I met back in 2000,” Minegar wrote, per PFT. “You used to smile and laugh a lot. You used to be fun to be around. … I acknowledge that you have had to deal with a ton of issues this past year, but you come to work angry every day. You talk down to almost everyone. You’ve become arrogant and condescending. You need to get credit for everything when things are going well and are quick to point the finger at everyone else when we are struggling.”

Minegar also took Bidwill to task for killing the employee engagement survey instead of working to do better by those who worked for the organization.

“Sadly, we learned that a majority of our employees are working in fear,” Minegar wrote. “There are several factors, but much of this was directed at you based on the poor interaction they’ve had with you. … What was your reaction when you saw the preliminary responses? Instead of leaning into it and trying to change things for the better, you shut the study down.”

The Cardinals used an external public relations adviser to refute McDonough’s claims. Minegar says the team cherry-picked communications he sent to Bidwill. That’s quite reminiscent of statements we’ve seen from Snyder’s PR people: attack and deflect, attack and deflect. And never, ever take responsibility for your misdeeds. It’s the NFL way.

Minegar said in a statement he regretted that his personal note to Bidwill had become public.

Why hasn’t Bidwill received the same amount of attention and blowback? Is it because Arizona as a team doesn’t have the cache and national recognition that Washington does? Is it because there isn’t yet an outlet doggedly revealing the depths of alleged misdeeds like the Washington Post has done with Snyder? Is it because in many corners the NFL’s reputation is such that these type of allegations of terrible behavior aren’t a surprise?

In the Cardinals’ Phoenix home market, an ESPN report of then-Suns and Mercury owner Robert Sarver’s terrible behavior was publicly affirmed by an NBA investigation and led to Sarver having to quickly sell both teams. Meanwhile, the NFL gave a scant account of its findings in its first investigation into Snyder and it is seemingly slow-walking the second. It appears the owner class is protecting Snyder despite being at odds with him, and his cavernous stadium is embarrassingly sparse on game days.

Will the NFL even move to protect employees in franchises and league offices from abhorrent “leadership” from team owners and other executives? It’s not enough that many of them are terrible community members, fleecing taxpayers for new stadium monies while keeping profits for themselves, there’s evidence some of them don’t even treat those who make those teams go with a modicum of decency.

Snyder might be the worst owner in the NFL, but it appears he’s getting competition.

CINCINNATI

Is WR TEE HIGGINS the odd man out in Cincinnati?  Jeff Howe of The Athletic:

The Bengals have been a legitimate Super Bowl contender for the past two years while reaping the benefits of the NFL’s most vital cheat code: a top-tier quarterback on a rookie contract. Cincinnati has utilized their ample cap space to build a formidable supporting cast around star quarterback Joe Burrow.

And while they could conceivably squeeze another season out of that model, the likelihood is their budget will need to be reworked sooner than later.

It’s not just Burrow they’ll have to pay. Their two most dangerous playmakers, wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, also are in line for massive contracts in the next year, and it’s going to be a significant challenge to keep the three of them together.

Burrow is eligible for an extension now, a fellow 2020 draft pick who is set to play in the final year of his rookie deal. Chase isn’t eligible for a new contract until next year, but the Bengals are surely accounting for an impending pact.

The Bengals’ dynamic has become an interesting case study for other teams.

Can they pay all three and still contend?

“You can probably do it, but who are you going to lose?” a high-ranking league executive told The Athletic. “They’ve probably got some other players who are worthy of extensions, so you’re going to have to make a decision on where you’re going young and where you want to allocate all of those resources, especially at wide receiver because there’s only one football. So if you (extend) Higgins, is it going to cost you Tyler Boyd? Probably. The structure of your roster already cost you (tight end) C.J. Uzomah to a certain extent. Trey Hendrickson has been an impactful pass rusher. You (lost safety) Jessie Bates. You can always keep those three players. Is it feasible? Yes, but it’s going to cost you somebody.”

The positional balance of the roster is key. Every team loses players in free agency, but the executive’s point about Uzomah was more along the lines of keeping the salary cap in check well in advance. That situation was also partly related to using the franchise tag in 2022 on Bates, who left last month for the Falcons. But to look at it another way, they did add tackle Orlando Brown to shore up an ongoing protection problem.

As for the future, the first domino isn’t overly complicated. The Bengals will prioritize Burrow, who will likely sign for historic money based on the trend of quarterbacks leapfrogging one another with each passing deal. Short of a hometown discount, Burrow seems to be in line for a contract worth about $45-50 million annually.

However, the Bengals don’t necessarily have to pay Burrow now because he’s on the books for an incredibly affordable $11.5 million in 2023 and a fifth-year option in 2024 that is projected to approach $30 million, not to mention the available franchise tags for 2025-26. But it’s sensible to get out in front of his extension with the way quarterback contracts have exploded every year since Matt Ryan became the first $30 million QB in 2018.

Chase, the fifth pick of the 2021 draft, is already one of the best receivers in the league, and his chemistry with Burrow traces back to their time together at LSU. Chase is tracking toward a contract worth $25-30 million per year when he’s eventually eligible.

So where does that leave Higgins? Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin was adamant during his February news conference at the combine that they wouldn’t trade Higgins and hoped to extend him. But the 2020 second-rounder would almost certainly crack $20 million annually on the open market, so the idea of investing $45-50 million per year to two receivers would be unorthodox. And don’t forget, Boyd is entering the final season of his four-year, $43 million contract.

Four teams exceeded $45 million in average annual value in receiver contracts in 2022 (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders), according to Spotrac. None won a playoff game. (While salary cap figures can be manipulated each year, the AAV metric closer resembles the value of these deals.)

In fact, among the top 10 teams in that spending category, only the Eagles and Jaguars captured a postseason win. It’s probably not a coincidence both of those teams, like the Bengals, employed a quarterback on a rookie contract.

Digging deeper, the Chargers were the only playoff team in 2022 with two receivers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams) on contracts worth at least $20 million in average annual value. The Raiders (Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow), Bucs (Chris Godwin, Mike Evans), Rams (Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson) and Seahawks (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett) were the only others with two receivers averaging at least $15 million annually. The Broncos (Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick), Commanders (Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel), Giants (Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepherd) and Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins, Robbie Anderson) each had a pair of receivers averaging at least $10 million.

The Giants were the only one of those nine teams to win a playoff game, and they accomplished that with virtually no production from the well-paid receivers. While past results don’t necessarily dictate the future prognostications with a unique situation in Cincinnati, there should at least be some hesitation with the idea of constructing a roster with two massively paid wideouts.

“It’s how you allocate those resources amongst your roster and where you want to be heavy,” the executive said. “But if you let Higgins go, do you have to use premium draft capital to give Burrow another weapon?”

Beyond that, Burrow has already proven to be one of the most prolific passers in the league, and he should be able to improve the talent around him. Head coach Zac Taylor’s offensive system has also been conducive to well-rounded success. And receivers have become easier to replenish through the draft.

 “Higgins is good, but I think you let Higgins walk,” an assistant coach told The Athletic. “Honestly, you may want to try to trade him this year while there’s value and then go draft a young receiver. He’s really good in that system. He’s a good receiver, but I don’t think he’s so dynamic that you can’t replace his value or production. Chase is going to command so much more attention, that whoever is playing opposite of him is going to get favorable matchups.”

There’s a bit of an intangible factor in the mix, too. The Bengals are riding the most successful two-year stretch in franchise history, and they’ve got the coach and quarterback in place to believe in their sustainability. In another time, it might be more difficult to let a proven player like Higgins walk, but the Bengals can point to their recent run of personnel moves and on-field production to show the fan base that their plan has been working.

“If it was me and I’m Cincinnati and they have a little bit of a runway from the success over the past two years, I would look for the replacement,” a second executive said. “I would go heavy on signing (Burrow) and Ja’Marr Chase and let Tee Higgins play out the year and look for his replacement. Or if there is some unbelievable trade option, consider that.”

While Tobin has said they wouldn’t trade Higgins, that wouldn’t prohibit teams from calling. And based on the way teams were scouring the trade market for receivers this offseason, thanks to a down year in free agency, it’s highly conceivable the Bengals could procure a quality draft pick if they relented.

Or the Bengals could simply go year to year. They should again contend for a Super Bowl in 2023, and Higgins would be a valuable asset in that pursuit. After all, what’s the point in accumulating talent if the team isn’t going to use those players to chase the ultimate goal?

It’s a fascinating dilemma, and one every team would love to try to navigate. The Bengals are in control at the moment, but matters will eventually become more complicated as negotiating deadlines approach or they attempt to become the exception by achieving their Super Bowl dream with potentially historic contracts at quarterback and receiver.

NEW ENGLAND

QB BAILEY ZAPPE is chomping at the bit to do to QB MAC JONES what Tom Brady did to Drew Bledsoe many years ago.  Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com:

Patriots coach Bill Belichick declined this offseason to name Mac Jones the starter over Bailey Zappe. So there may . . . or may not be a competition for the starting job for 2023.

Zappe is ready to compete if given the chance.

 “If my opportunity presents itself, I’m going to take full advantage of it,” the Patriots’ second-year quarterback said Wednesday at a youth football clinic, via Bob Socci of 98.5 The Sports Hub. “I’m going to do everything I can to help the team win.

“That’s really all I can say from that standpoint. That’s coach Belichick’s decision; whatever he decides. But if the opportunity presents itself, I’m going to be ready and take advantage of it.”

In the four games he played, including two starts when Jones was injured, Zappe became a fan favorite and even won over some Patriots players, according to retired safety Devin McCourty. Zappe won both of his starters and had a 100.9 passer rating for the season with five touchdowns and three interceptions.

That created a quarterback controversy that Belichick fueled with his comments at the annual owners meeting, saying “everybody will get a chance to play, and we’ll play the best players.”

Jones has done nothing to earn the starting job without a competition, so the battle likely commences next week when the Patriots begin their offseason program.

THIS AND THAT

2023 DRAFT

Sam Monson of ProFootballFocus offers this Mock that believes in the power of QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON:

1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA

I think Bryce Young is the best quarterback prospect in this draft, but if I’m Carolina, I’ve already traded up from No. 9 overall to make this move. I need a huge payoff. I am confident that Young will be a solid NFL quarterback, but will his limitations prevent him from becoming a great one? I don’t know.

Richardson’s elite athleticism and rushing threat give him a very high floor and enough breathing room to improve as a passer — specifically to fix his accuracy. He actually works through progressions and reads defenses well; he just can’t reliably connect with his target. If my coaching staff thinks that’s fixable, Richardson is the biggest potential home run.

2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA

This is a jackpot scenario for Houston, with the best prospect in the draft slipping to the pick they wouldn’t have owned if they had lost a meaningless late-season game to maintain control of the No. 1 overall selection. Young’s size is scary, but he plays with the best anticipation of any quarterback in this draft and targets the middle of the field more often than much taller players, such as C.J. Stroud.

3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (VIA ARI): QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY

What happens from this spot onward depends entirely on how you evaluate the remaining top two quarterbacks. I buy into what Will Levis showed in 2021 in an NFL offense with better support around him, and if I’m the Colts, I can’t risk losing him to a team willing to trade to No. 3 and jump me. They flip Arizona another pick to jump one spot and snag their guy, then pray Levis jumps back up in play with a better environment around him.

4. ARIZONA CARDINALS (VIA IND): EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA

The Cardinals would love to trade further back, but this was the only deal on the table in my scenario. Picking up Anderson — the player they’d select if they were stuck at No. 3 — and adding an extra valuable selection along the way is still good business. Anderson recorded more than 200 pressures in three seasons as a starter.

5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (VIA DEN): DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA

The questions to answer on Jalen Carter are ones NFL teams have better access to address than we do from the outside. Seattle is a good place for players with potential maturity concerns, and Carter may be the most talented player at any position in the draft.

6. TENNESSEE TITANS (VIA DET): QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE

I don’t love C.J. Stroud as much as others, but he flashed more than enough potential against Georgia (92.2 PFF game grade) for an NFL team to buy in if he starts to slip in the draft. Tennessee jumps up from No. 11 to get its quarterback of the future and finally begin the rebuild.

7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS

Devon Witherspoon is the clear No. 1 cornerback in this draft class. Last season, he allowed just a 25.3 passer rating into his coverage, and a low-4.4-second 40-yard dash time at his pro day answered any lingering concerns about speed. He is also a rare tone-setting cornerback who can help enact big changes in the Raiders’ defense.

8. ATLANTA FALCONS: OL PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN

I didn’t love this spot for Atlanta. I would have happily taken any trade on the table, but no offers materialized. I am simply lower on the players who others would see as great values here, so I took the best player on my board and will play him at guard to start. Skoronski allowed just five pressures all last season at tackle, but he may project inside at the next level anyway due to his 32.25-inch arms.

9. CHICAGO BEARS (VIA CAR): DI CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH

The Bears still need impact players along the defensive line, and this is the range where Calijah Kancey starts to become intriguing. A player who will get likened to Aaron Donald perhaps compares more accurately to Buffalo’s Ed Oliver, though. Kancey has elite get-off and athleticism, and he recorded a top-tier 22.7% pass-rush win rate last season.

10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (VIA NO): S BRIAN BRANCH, ALABAMA

Brian Branch is one of this draft class’ best players at any position. Ostensibly a safety, he can play any spot in the secondary and was elite covering the slot at Alabama despite matchups against some top receivers. He allowed a 69.3 passer rating last season and would bring valuable versatility to an Eagles defense expecting to be playing football in February again.

11. DETROIT LIONS (VIA TEN): CB JOEY PORTER JR., PENN STATE

The Lions trading back from No. 6 makes me feel a lot better about grabbing a cornerback at this spot. Most people would have Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez here, but I worry about a lot of his game. Joey Porter Jr. is the best press-man cornerback in the draft, but he has plenty of zone ability, as well. Over the past two seasons, he earned an 80.0-plus PFF coverage grade in zone coverage.

12. HOUSTON TEXANS (VIA CLV): WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE

After snagging a quarterback with their first selection, the Texans need to improve their receiving corps, and they should value certainty at this spot. Maybe other receivers have more upside than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but his floor is incredibly high. He will be productive, and the Texans need help right now. He gained an absurd 4.01 yards per route run during his sophomore season before injury kept him off the field for most of last year.

13. NEW YORK JETS: T PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE

Assuming the Jets do eventually get a trade done for Aaron Rodgers, this is a very good roster, but they could use help along the offensive line. After Skoronski, the next group is very closely matched. Paris Johnson Jr. graded well every year in college and allowed just 14 total pressures last season. He will start at one tackle spot, and New York can figure out in training camp which one that is.

14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: CB DEONTE BANKS, MARYLAND

If Joey Porter Jr. is the best man coverage cornerback in the draft, Deonte Banks is the next player I would take for that scheme. The Patriots at heart still want the flexibility to run man coverage on the back end but just haven’t had the horses to do it recently. Banks changes that. He allowed just four touchdowns in his last three years at Maryland.

15. GREEN BAY PACKERS: TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH

Dalton Kincaid has game-changing receiving skills at tight end. Green Bay has a receiver room of young wideouts, but Kincaid could add a huge weapon at a spot that still allows Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to develop on the field. Kincaid dropped just two of his 93 targets last season.

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: T ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA

Washington would be tempted by a cornerback at this spot, but I felt tackle represented better value. Anton Harrison allowed just nine pressures in 2022 at Oklahoma. The Commanders could start him at right tackle right now with a plan for him to potentially succeed Charles Leno Jr. on the left side after a year or two.

17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: T BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA

The weakest link on Pittsburgh’s line is at tackle; the only question is which side. They’ll be linked to cornerbacks more often than not here, but I think tackle is the more acute need. Broderick Jones will be the No. 1 tackle on some boards, and while I don’t quite have it that way, the gap between him and my top tackle isn’t a big one. This is excellent value at a position of need.

18. DETROIT LIONS: CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON

I am far lower on Christian Gonzalez than most — a player with sick movement skills and elite athleticism but who never allowed a passer rating lower than 74.7 in his college career. There’s significant risk attached to his projection, and I feel a lot better about that gamble if I’m playing with house money the way Detroit would be here having already drafted Porter. This is the type of double-dip that could pay off down the line for a team looking to have long-term, sustained success.

19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: EDGE LUKAS VAN NESS, IOWA

Tampa Bay could go in a few different directions here, but the best value pick felt like Lukas Van Ness, a 6-foot-5, 270-plus-pound defensive lineman with incredible power and flexibility to rush the passer. He racked up 46 pressures on 271 pass-rushing snaps last season and should add a degree of solidity to the Buccaneers’ defensive line.

20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC

Despite his best efforts to undermine this view with his measurables and pre-draft testing, Jordan Addison is still my No. 1 wide receiver. He is undersized and didn’t set blazing times in the 40, but he’s an elite route runner who knows how to win at all levels and from all alignments. He’s a perfect receiver for the Seahawks.

21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU

I’m scared by some of the deficiencies in Quentin Johnston’s game, but those would matter a lot less in the Chargers’ offense given what they already have in the building. Johnston’s speed would be a huge addition to this offense, and he averaged almost 9.0 yards after the catch last season.

22. BALTIMORE RAVENS: EDGE NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA

Baltimore loves adding edge rushers of all shapes and sizes to its defense, and Nolan Smith would be just the latest example. An elite athlete, Smith is also an exceptional run defender despite weighing 238 pounds. He posted a 25.5% pass-rush win rate last season and an elite 14.9% run-stop rate.

23. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (VIA MIN): T DARNELL WRIGHT, TENNESSEE

With the top tackles flying off the board, the Chiefs decide to make a move for the player they’re most comfortable starting at right tackle on Day 1: Tennessee’s Darnell Wright. He allowed just eight pressures all last season despite facing players like Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr.

24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: EDGE TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH

I’m not sure in an ideal world whether I would want to spend a first-round draft pick on Tyree Wilson, given his draft profile, but at this point in the first round, I think I’d roll the dice that I’m wrong and everybody else is right. Wilson tallied 50 pressures last season on 257 pass-rushing snaps.

25. NEW YORK GIANTS: C JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ, MINNESOTA

John Michael Schmitz should be a first-round player on everybody’s draft board. Given how low he is on the consensus board, I would be tempted to play the value game and try and select him later, but in the end I played it safe and grabbed an elite player at a position of need. He allowed two sacks and just 19 pressures over three years.

26. DALLAS COWBOYS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS

Bijan Robinson is one of the most talented players in the draft, and at some point, the value becomes too good to turn down. Dallas doesn’t have a list of glaring needs, so I’m taking a player who can dominate within an offense already in excellent shape. Robinson gained more than 1,000 yards after contact and broke 104 tackles last season.

27. BUFFALO BILLS: CB CAM SMITH, SOUTH CAROLINA

Cam Smith has first-round talent at cornerback and trails only his teammate Darius Rush in forced incompletion rate over the past two seasons in this draft class (26.5%). He allowed just a 55.4 passer rating into his coverage over that span, a fraction above Devon Witherspoon (55.1).

28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: TE MICHAEL MAYER, NOTRE DAME

Michael Mayer is the best all-around tight end in this class. He’s a natural fit within the Bengals’ offense, even if free agent acquisition Irv Smith Jr. stays healthy for the first time in his career. Mayer should be a plus blocker right away and can win consistently in an offense already bristling with passing weaponry.

29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (VIA SF): EDGE MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON

The Saints look to replace Marcus Davenport with another talented, athletic and physically imposing edge defender in Clemson’s Myles Murphy. A player who didn’t necessarily peak in college, Murphy was consistently good without reaching great. He finished 2022 with only a 14.3% pass-rush win rate, but the Saints would value his athletic traits.

30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: LB JACK CAMPBELL, IOWA

This is not a good linebacker draft, but Iowa’s Jack Campbell brings old-school prototypical size to the draft. Campbell is 6-foot-5 and 249 pounds and earned an elite 91.9 PFF grade last season. He will be a tackling machine within the Eagles’ defense, giving them more flexibility with Nakobe Dean after losing multiple starters from last year’s unit.

31. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (VIA KC): DI BRYAN BRESEE, CLEMSON

The Vikings would be tempted by a receiver at this spot, and were I higher on Zay Flowers I might have made that move. They still badly need some interior impact on the defensive line, and the potential in Bryan Bresee is too much to overlook here. Last season, Bresee put up 24 pressures on 203 pass-rushing snaps, but his best football could easily be ahead of him, given the way his college career played out.