AROUND THE NFL
This from Warren Sharp:
@SharpFootball
most expensive QB rooms next year:
1. TEN – $40.5, led by Ryan Tannehill
2. KC – $39.9M, led by Patrick Mahomes
3. SF – $36.7M, led by Jimmy Garoppolo
4. DET – $35.1M, led by Jared Goff
pretty wild
– – –
Benjamin Solak starts a conversation on Twitter:
@BenjaminSolak
All quarterbacks better than and including Derek Carr are probably good. All quarterbacks worse than Derek Carr are probably bad or are Kirk Cousins.
This from Bill Barnwell:
@billbarnwell
Derek Carr’s ranked ninth, sixth, and seventh in net yards per attempt over the last three seasons. Ninth, tenth, and 14th in passer rating. 10th, 11th, and 14th in QBR.
He’s a good quarterback and got a commensurate deal. This doesn’t seem controversial!
More:
@AdenChiz
@BenjaminSolak
So Carr’s taken over the ‘Dalton line’ from Andy Dalton ? always thought it would be Baker Mayfield to be the one to do that.
Mr Cameron
@acameron78
Carr is way over the Dalton line. He’s not great but he’s better than this.
So, where is the line between a good QB and one who is not good.
We wouldn’t think there is much argument about (in no particular order):
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert (the only QBs in the last two drafts to clear the good/no good line), Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson.
Everyone is assuming Deshaun Watson is “good”, but we’d actually like to see him play for the Browns to confirm that.
We would have the following over the line, although maybe not everyone does – Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray. Stafford would have been around here before last year.
Thirteen above the line.
Now let’s work up from the bottom –
Tua, Davis Mills, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Field, Jalen Hurts – young QBs who have not proven themselves as “good.” We would guess Daniel Jones is in this category, but he’s won’t be “young” much longer.
Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield – may have at one time been “good” but have not been recently. We can’t call Jameis Winston “good”.
The Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Steelers and Broncos don’t have anyone who is good at this time.
That leaves Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill and the current version of Matt Ryan.
We would say that whoever you think is the best of these three forms the line for good vs. not good.
NFC EAST
DALLAS
Jerry Jones says he is ready to move up for the right player. Myles Simmons ofProFootballTalk.com:
This year’s NFL draft is just over two weeks away, which means it’s officially smokescreen and misdirection season.
That might be what Jerry Jones was up to with some of his comments on Wednesday.
The Cowboys owner told reporters that his team would be interested in getting to a higher selection in the early rounds.
“I would trade up this draft — and just going in as much as you can say about it, until you see what’s there and who’s on the other end of the line,” Jones said, via Jon Machota of TheAthletic.com. “But I would trade up, since we’re down as low as we are in the first two or three rounds if we had a chance to and somebody that we had really coveted was sitting at the bottom … and we were able to trade up and get him.”
Dallas currently has the 24th overall pick of this year’s draft after winning the NFC East and falling to San Francisco in the opening round of the playoffs.
But the Cowboys haven’t traded up in the first round for years. The last time they did it was 2012, when the club swapped places with the then-St. Louis Rams to select cornerback Morris Claiborne at No. 6 overall.
Given the state of this year’s draft and the Cowboys projected needs, it’s more likely that the team might want to trade back and gain more assets instead of trade up.
WASHINGTON
Mary Jo White, who created the oral report about the culture of Washington’s football team, is now on the case of the missing money. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
In February, the NFL hired Mary Jo White to investigate former Washington Commanders employee Tiffani Johnston’s allegations of misconduct against owner Daniel Snyder. At some point since then, White’s assignment has grown.
The NFL has confirmed via email to PFT that White is investigating the financial aspects of the allegations made by the U.S. House Committee on Oversight & Reform against the team. The league declined to comment on the timing of the expansion of his investigation.
News of alleged financial improprieties emerged fairly recently. It started with a claim of two sets of books and ticket revenue allegedly being diverted from the visiting-team pool surrendered to the league and shared by all 32 teams. The letter sent by the Committee to the Federal Trade Commission includes allegations regarding a security-deposit shell game involving season-ticket holders.
Some connected to the league have predicted that the claims of shorting the league’s ticket revenue will become the “death knell” for Snyder as an owner, if proven to be true. If it’s shown that the Commanders basically stole from some of its most loyal customers, Snyder and others could be facing prosecution, not to mention class-action lawsuits.
As to White’s investigation regarding the revenues allegedly withheld from the league, it will be interesting to see whether she explores the league’s responsibility for failing to spot the alleged practice as it was happening. That quite possibly will fall beyond the assignment given to her by the league office, given the potential implications of the findings to certain key employees of the league office.
NFC WEST
ARIZONA
Steve Wilks has joined Brian Flores in saying that he was one-and-done as head coach of the Cardinals for racial reasons, not his 3-13 record in 2018. The complicating factor being the legal problems of GM Steve Keim at the time.
Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic is a writer we respect who was there at time, so what does he say?
In joining Brian Flores’ lawsuit against the NFL for alleged discriminatory hiring and employment practices this week, former Cardinals coach Steve Wilks pointed a finger at the team’s current general manager, Steve Keim, and asked a simple question:
Why did he keep his job after the 2018 season and I didn’t?
The answer, according to the class-action lawsuit, is white and black. As in, Keim is white, and Wilks is Black.
The lawsuit alleges the NFL doesn’t provide Black coaches and executives equal opportunities. For them, it’s harder to be hired and much easier to be fired. On a broad scale, that’s easy to prove. It’s inarguable. It’s shameful. It’s ongoing.
But when it comes to Wilks and the Cardinals, does it apply?
Let’s look at the 2018 Cardinals season, a process closer to regurgitation than reflection.
Bruce Arians had just retired as head coach for the first time. Carson Palmer had just retired as a quarterback for the first and only time. And while it wasn’t readily apparent at the time, Keim’s recent bad drafts and other personnel mistakes had resulted in one of the least talented rosters in the team’s history in Arizona.
Enter Wilks. He was a career assistant hired to replace Arians, and became the second Black head coach in the team’s history.
According to the lawsuit, Wilks’ had little chance to succeed that first year. He wanted to trade up in the draft for quarterback Josh Allen. Instead, Keim traded up for Josh Rosen, who would open the season as the backup to Sam Bradford.
That summer, Keim was arrested for driving under the influence and was suspended five weeks, which meant being absent for all of training camp, a time when many roster decisions are made.
Meanwhile, Wilks, a defensive coach, was relying on offensive coordinator Mike McCoy to handle that side of the ball. There were reports at the time that Keim pushed Wilks to hire McCoy, even though the two didn’t know each other.
It didn’t work. Nothing worked. The Cardinals finished last in nearly every major offensive category. The defense was solid but the overall result was horrendous.
The Cardinals were outscored, 58-6, in their first two games. Later, team owner Mike Bidwill said he and Keim thought then they might have made a mistake in hiring Wilks.
And since they were thinking that so early in the season, it’s fair to wonder just how supportive they were of their head coach.
The Cardinals finished 3-13. Wilks was fired the day after the season. In retrospect, the lawsuit contends, it’s clear Wilks was hired as a “bridge coach,” someone who is “keeping the seat warm until the team is better positioned to succeed, at which point a new coach is brought in.”
The lawsuit also alleges that Keim and Bidwill were upset about a late-season victory over the Packers, which might have meant a lower position in the draft.
There is validity to some of Wilks’ assertions. The situation at quarterback that year was abysmal. Bradford was benched after three games and never played again. Rosen wasn’t ready. Keim’s absence in July and August didn’t help. Neither did cornerback Patrick Peterson, a captain, asking for a trade at mid-season, a request that blindsided Wilks.
But most people tend to be the heroes of autobiographical stories. That’s especially true when we’re telling them via a lawsuit.
Wilks said he pushed Keim to trade up for Allen, implying that Keim didn’t try. But according to a report at the time, the Cardinals had a deal in place with the Broncos to move from the 15th pick to No. 5, with Allen as the target.
The Broncos, however, opted to keep the pick when defensive end Bradley Chubb fell to them. The Cardinals shifted to Plan B: trading up and selecting Rosen.
From a wins and losses standpoint, Wilks had little chance to succeed in 2018. But the Cardinals were worse than they should have been. Five times, they lost by 22 points or more. Their scoring differential of 12.5 points was the worst in the NFL. At no time did they look like a team that was improving.
Wilks contends he wasn’t given adequate resources and time to prove himself. Might McCoy, fired by Wilks after the seventh game, feel the same way?
It was hard to argue against firing Wilks, but it was equally hard to argue that Keim deserved to keep his job.
Keim had two things going for him: the success the Cardinals had in his first three years on the job, when they went 34-14 and made the playoffs twice, and a relationship with Bidwill that dated to 1999, when Keim joined the Cardinals as a scout.
Wilks had neither of those things. He was the odd man out, so he was out.
Did his skin color have anything to do with it?
As expected, the Cardinals say no. In a statement, the Cardinals denied the allegations made in the lawsuit and wrote that the decisions in 2018 were difficult but necessary.
And if the Cardinals ever have to answer these allegations specifically, they could point out they were the first NFL organization to have a Black woman in the front office, the first to have a Black man negotiate contracts and the first to have a Black head coach and general manager at the same time. And that Keim’s predecessor, Rod Graves, who is Black, had a longer tenure than three coaches he helped hire.
Or the Cardinals could just hit the “play” button on video from the 2018 season. Judge and jury will be left wondering how anyone associated with that team kept their jobs.
The DB was in Green Bay that day in December when Wilks and Josh Rosen defeated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Mike McCarthy never coached the Packers again.
SEATTLE
QB GENO SMITH returns to the Seahawks. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com:
Russell Wilson is gone, but Geno Smith is back.
The man who started multiple games in 2021 after Wilson suffered a finger injury has resigned with the Seahawks, per multiple reports. It’s a one-year deal.
It will be Smith’s third season in Seattle, and his tenth in the NFL. The 2013 second-round pick initially played for the Jets, where he was a two-year starter. He also has spent time with the Giants and the Chargers. He got the nod in late 2017 to start for the Giants, during the short-lived and ill-fated benching of Eli Manning.
The move gives the Seahawks three quarterbacks under contract: Smith, Drew Lock, and Jacob Eason. It remains to be seen whether they draft a quarterback or perhaps pursue Baker Mayfield. Recently, coach Pete Carroll said that the team would remain in the “quarterback business” even if Smith returns.
One open item of business remains for Smith, as it relates to off-field concerns. He was arrested on suspicion of DUI charges following the team’s Week 18 game in January. He reportedly was driving 96 miles per hour in a 60 mph zone.
AFC WEST
LAS VEGAS
And, the new Raiders braintrust goes all-in with QB DEREK CARR. Nick Shook ofNFL.com:
If the offseason quotes weren’t enough already, the Raiders just delivered a definitive statement on the future of Derek Carr.
Carr and the Raiders have agreed to terms on a three-year contract extension worth $121.5 million, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo reported Wednesday. Carr’s extension runs through the 2025 season and includes a no-trade clause, per Rapoport and Garafolo.
Carr is set to earn an average of $40.5 million per year under his new extension, ranking fifth among all quarterbacks in average annual salary. It’s a number that might surprise those who don’t view Carr as an elite quarterback, but it’s money well spent for the Raiders, who watched Carr set the franchise’s single-season record for passing yards (4,804) in 2021, breaking the previous mark set by Rich Gannon in his NFL MVP-winning 2002 season.
The price of good-but-not-elite quarterback play has risen in accordance with the most lucrative deals handed to the league’s top signal-callers. In the pass-first NFL, the rise in compensation makes logical sense, and those who watched Carr in 2021 will agree that it was wise for Las Vegas to secure Carr’s services beyond the final year of his existing contract.
Those who disagree might want to take some time to review the quarterback’s recent performance. Carr finished in the top eight in completion percentage (64.8), passing yards per game (282.6) and passing yards per attempt (7.7). His passer rating of 94 fell below previous marks set in 2020 (101.4) and 2019 (100.8), but when considering the circumstances under which Carr operated — including the in-season departures of his head coach and top receiver — Carr’s play was, in fact, excellent.
Las Vegas overcame such adversity to reach the playoffs thanks to a frantic, late-season push that included last-second wins over Cleveland, Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Chargers in the season’s final month. The Raiders simply do not reach Super Wild Card Weekend without Carr, a quarterback who has proven to be significantly more efficient as a passer over the last four seasons, increasing his combined completion percentage, passing yards per game, yards per attempt and passer rating in 2018-2021 in comparison to 2014-2017.
Carr has the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL since 2018, ranking behind only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, and even outperforming the 2020 and 2021 NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers. And Carr has been consistently available, standing as one of only seven quarterbacks to start 115 or more games since he was drafted in 2014.
Carr might not be elite, but he’s certainly playing at a level near that class of quarterbacks.
After multiple offseasons spent wondering about the quarterback’s future with the Silver and Black, the new Las Vegas leadership duo of Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels made sure to eliminate any uncertainty regarding Carr by locking him up well beyond 2022.
We can retire such speculation on Carr’s long-term outlook with the Raiders for now. All that’s left is for the quarterback to begin rekindling his rapport with his former Fresno State running mate, star receiver Davante Adams. If they can pick up where they left off in college, the duo might finally lead the Raiders to their first playoff win since the 2002 AFC Championship Game.
Carr hoped to leave the Raiders room to maneuver with the new deal. Josh Alper ofProFootballTalk.com:
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr signed a three-year extension on Wednesday and he told reporters at a press conference that his goal in negotiations was not to maximize his return in the deal.
Carr was due to make $21 million in 2022 and will get a raise to $24.9 million before the extension kicks in next year. He’ll be guaranteed another $40-plus million early in the 2023 league year — the reported total value of the extension is $121.5 million — and told reporters that he set out to show that they could structure a deal that allows the Raiders to “keep everybody together and really have continuity, have something to build on” in Las Vegas.
Carr noted that the team traded Khalil Mack after his last extension and that his goal is to continue playing with teammates like Chandler Jones, Devante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Foster Moreau for years to come.
“Everyone looks at certain numbers, they’re not going to get the whole picture of how it’s structured and how we did things. . . . We made sure guys like Chandler, guys like Devante, guys like hopefully Hunter and Foster and those guys can stay here the way we structured it. I went through a heartbreak already last time I signed my contract. My best friend left. I didn’t want that to ever happen again.”
Carr started his first playoff game after the 2021 season, but the Raiders couldn’t get past the Bengals. The offseason’s moves have raised expectations of further success in the years to come and the Raiders’ ability to reach them will factor into how long the band stays together.
AFC NORTH
CLEVELAND
QB BAKER MAYFIELD feels disrespected. Hunter Hodies of The Spun:
Baker Mayfield still isn’t happy with the Cleveland Browns after they went out and acquired Deshaun Watson.
Mayfield looked set on being the Browns starting quarterback again in 2022 before the team started to flirt with Watson. They were originally out on him before Watson changed his mind and agreed to waive his no-trade clause.
Mayfield spoke on the “Ya Never Know” podcast and confirmed that he still feels disrespected by what the Browns did.
“The respect thing is all going to be a personal opinion,” Mayfield said. “I feel disrespected. 100%. I was told one thing and they completely did another. That’s what I’m in the middle of right now and you know what, I got my taste of it because I’ve had four different head coaches in four years. Bunch of different coordinators. I’m just looking for stabilization right now.”
Mayfield underwent shoulder surgery after the season was over since he battled multiple shoulder injuries throughout the 2021 season.
It affected his play in a big way as he only had 3,010 yards passing and a 17/13 TD/INT ratio. The Browns ended up missing the playoffs with an 8-9 record after making the playoffs in 2020.
Cleveland doesn’t seem to be in a rush to trade Mayfield right now which makes finding a solution to this matter a bit tricky.
AFC EAST
MIAMI
TE MIKE GESICKI is labeled a tight end and looks like one, but his agent claims he’s a wide receiver. Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk.com:
Mike Gesicki is listed as a tight end by the Dolphins on their roster and he was listed as one when they franchise-tagged him earlier this year, but some have wondered if Gesicki has a case for being termed a wide receiver on the latter front.
Gesicki spent more than half his time lined up in the slot during the 2021 season and he lined up as an outside receiver more than twice as often as he was in the tight end’s traditional in-line spot. The difference in payout between the two tags is almost $7.5 million, which makes for a lot of reasons why Gesicki might want to appeal the tight end designation.
At a Wednesday press conference, Gesicki said he is “obviously playing” while noting that he’s taking part in voluntary work in the team’s offseason program. He also said that it will be his agent who handles any matters having to do with how he’s tagged.
“I’m not a big controversy guy . . . I don’t want to be in the headlines for the wrong reasons,” Gesicki said, via Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com.
One way to avoid any haggling over tags would be to hammer out a long-term extension before the July 15 deadline for tagged players to do so. Gesicki expressed his desire that “hopefully, eventually, I get what I deserve moving forward” but offered no guesses about whether such a deal may be coming his way.
THIS AND THAT
BRADY, PAYTON AND BRIAN FLORES
Mike Florio on the web of intrigue about Miami in 2023:
Buccaneers and Dolphins fans have something in common. They both hate the ongoing reports regarding the fact that Tom Brady would have been Miami bound, but for the Brian Flores lawsuit.
We’ve posted several items on the topic. Starting with the news that the Dolphins were planning a Tom Brady/Sean Payton package deal. We added more details this week, including the plan to make Brady a minority owner before he would have unretired to play for the team.
Ben Volin of the Boston Globe has reported on another interesting wrinkle in this saga. Via Volin, Brady would have gotten a “position high in the Miami front office,” similar to the job Derek Jeter previously held with the Miami Marlins.
The Flores lawsuit, filed the same day Brady announced his retirement, stopped that from happening. All of it. No Payton. No Brady, at least not in 2022.
It would be interesting to know whether Flores timed his filing to blow up the Brady-Miami boondoggle. Many think that Flores decided to pull the pin on his civil complaint as a reaction to the accidental text he received from Patriots coach Bill Belichick congratulating the wrong Brian for landing the Giants’ head-coaching job. Maybe Flores sued when he did to stick it to Dolphins owner Stephen Ross, keeping him from getting the outcome he coveted. (The Patriots also benefited from this move, since it kept Brady out of the division. When he became a free agent in 2020, some with the Patriots were convinced he’d end up in Miami.)
Whatever the reasons or motivations, the Flores lawsuit kept Brady from becoming a part owner, and apparently a key executive, in Miami. The plan would have become more delicate after that. There’s confidence in some circles that the Saints would have cut a deal to trade Payton’s coaching rights to the Dolphins, and that the Bucs eventually would have cut a deal to trade Brady’s playing rights to Miami.
Regardless, nothing was stopping Brady going to Miami as a minority owner and/or executive. Except the landmark lawsuit filed by Brian Flores.
Look at it this way. If Brady was simply going to Miami to be an executive, why did the Flores lawsuit keep it from happening? Because that wasn’t the ending point, only the beginning, for Brady’s broader business dealings in Miami.
Actually, as things worked out, if they did, it would be a lot cleaner for Brady to head to Miami next year with his contract expired. But if Payton is hired as coach, does that make Mike McDaniel another “bridge” coach and a plaintiff in the Flores lawsuit?
2022 DRAFT
Mel Kiper, Jr. of ESPN.com gives us a two-round Mock Draft:
Let’s get into my annual two-round mock draft, projecting Picks 1-64. I have four quarterbacks and 12 wide receivers here, plus four edge defenders in the top seven picks. I have interesting landing spots for the offensive tackles. And I have one trade for a team moving back into Round 1 to get a critical need — and leaping another franchise that needs that position.
I’m projecting these 64 picks based on a combination of my updated rankings, team needs and what I’m hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. For the second round, in particular, so much could change between now and when teams are on the clock, so I’m using my Big Board as a guide on value.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
There’s really no need to overthink things here. Hutchinson is the best prospect in this class — an edge rusher who could average 12 sacks a year for a decade — and he plays a premier position. He could play as a stand-up outside linebacker or hand-in-the-dirt end for the Jaguars, meeting quarterbacks in the backfield with 2019 first-rounder Josh Allen.
2. Detroit Lions
Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Can I interest you in a 6-foot-3 corner with long arms and 4.41 40-yard dash speed who didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage in college? That’s Gardner. The Lions have several needs and would likely jump at Aidan Hutchinson if he somehow fell here. But if they select Gardner and get something out of Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft who has played just 10 games in two seasons, they could have a much-improved secondary.
3. Houston Texans
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
I don’t think anyone outside the organization really knows what the Texans will do in Round 1. For this mock, I’m trying to think long-term with Houston, which just has to add some talent. Walker is a bit of a risk in the top 10; NFL teams are betting that his physical tools will win out over his subpar college production (9.5 sacks in three seasons). Coaches want to try to maximize that upside. There is a lot of buzz on Walker going early.
4. New York Jets
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
I’m not buying a Thibodeaux drop. He might be the most talented prospect in this class. The Jets have to add some juice to their pass rush, and this is the spot to do it. It’s also not out of the question that they take a receiver here — Drake London or Garrett Wilson? — because their top guy might be off the board by the time they pick at No. 10.
5. New York Giants
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
If the board shakes out this way, the Giants would have to be thrilled to get their pick of the top two offensive tackles. I have Ekwonu just slightly over Evan Neal, but it’s tough to go wrong with either — they are my Nos. 2 and 3 prospects in this class. Ekwonu answered every question about his pass-protection ability last season. If left tackle Andrew Thomas keeps improving, these two could form one of the NFL’s best bookend pairings.
6. Carolina Panthers
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Doesn’t Carolina coach Matt Rhule have to take a swing on a quarterback here? The Panthers don’t have second- or third-round picks. Rhule will enter the season on the hot seat, and this is his chance to buy some time with a high-ceiling rookie signal-caller. Willis is going to make some mistakes, but he will be fun to watch. He might nail a perfect deep ball to Robby Anderson and then throw a pick in the red zone on the next play. But he’s going to keep getting better with time, and Carolina does have some skill position talent to help him.
7. New York Giants (via CHI)
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
The Giants can get their tackle at No. 5 and then focus on their defense, which allowed 4.7 yards per play last season (31st in the NFL). Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. He already has a few veteran pass-rush moves and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he will have some versatility in Don Martindale’s defense. And if you’re keeping track, this makes four edge rushers in the top seven picks.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I’m going to stick with this prediction because … who is Marcus Mariota going to throw to next season? The Falcons just don’t have any starting-caliber receivers. Wilson can run every route and beat defenders after the catch. He could be the early favorite for Rookie of the Year if he lands here — he’d get a bunch of targets. Atlanta will likely be tracking the edge rushers closely, but there isn’t value at this point on my board.
9. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is another team that ends up with an ideal scenario. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown is still unsigned, so Neal could start from Day 1. It just makes too much sense. I’m not a huge believer that Drew Lock will be Seattle’s quarterback answer for the long term, but Neal could be a stalwart on the left side for years to come.
10. New York Jets (via SEA)
Drake London, WR, USC
If the Jets can pull this off — a top-tier receiver here and a high-upside edge rusher at No. 4 — shouldn’t they be considered one of the most improved teams of the offseason? I like what they’ve done, and they haven’t had to break the bank. Of course, that doesn’t mean they’re going to be AFC East contenders just yet. London is a 6-foot-4 target who will dominate in the red zone and pull down 50-50 balls to boost Zach Wilson’s completion percentage.
11. Washington Commanders
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been dinged a little bit because of his 40 time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He’s a fantastic player, but he doesn’t have rare physical tools, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I would want him on my team. At 6-foot-4, he could play multiple positions, from center fielder to box linebacker. He would make plays for a Washington defense that disappointed in 2021.
12. Minnesota Vikings
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
This is a great fit for both sides. The Vikings could get a corner with an elite, All-Pro ceiling and plug a hole, while Stingley could join a team with a few other former LSU stars (Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Patrick Peterson). The concern about Stingley is that his best tape is from 2019, when he starred as a true freshman. Can he return to form in the NFL — and stay healthy? That’s a risk teams will have to consider. Still, I feel better making that bet at No. 12 than if I were picking in the top five.
13. Houston Texans (via CLE)
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I’m going to stick to my board here, and since my top 11 prospects have all been picked (plus Malik Willis), I’ll move on to No. 12. Cross is a superb pass-blocker who needs some refinement in the run game — because he just didn’t get the reps to do so while playing for Mike Leach. If the Texans are going to give Davis Mills the 2022 season to prove he’s their guy at quarterback, Mills needs a better right tackle. That could be Cross.
14. Baltimore Ravens
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Ravens could go in several directions here, including offensive tackle (will Ronnie Stanley ever be the same again?) and defensive end (Calais Campbell is back, but he’s 35). When I look at this depth chart, though, I see corner depth as an issue. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside and in the slot, and he also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA)
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
After last week’s trade with the Saints, the Eagles now have one fewer first-round pick, but you have to think they’ll take a receiver with one of them, right? If they’re committed to using 2022 as an evaluation year for Jalen Hurts, they should give him the tools to succeed. Olave had seven touchdowns out of the slot last season, but he can move outside, too, and use his 4.39 40 speed to get open. Hurts would love throwing to him and DeVonta Smith, with Dallas Goedert working the middle of the field.
16. New Orleans Saints (via PHI/IND)
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Speaking of the Saints, I have a hard time believing they traded picks with the Eagles for the purpose of taking a quarterback. Why wouldn’t they try to move up higher? (Unless there’s another move to come?) It’s possible they think they are NFC contenders this season and could be put over the edge with two more starters. With that in mind, here’s a tackle who could replace Terron Armstead on the left side. Penning is a nasty, physical blocker who is ready to play immediately.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers need a right tackle, but with Trevor Penning off the board, I don’t feel great about the value here. In fact, my next tackle in this mock doesn’t go off the board until No. 42. Let’s move instead to another need for L.A. and fill it with Davis, who at 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds is used to being a hole-filler. He has unique physical tools for his size, and he makes everyone around him better because of the space he eats. This is how Brandon Staley’s defense can level up in 2022.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
I see a massive void in the middle of the Eagles’ front seven, and we’re getting to the point in this draft in which an off-ball linebacker will be taken. I have Devin Lloyd just ahead of Dean in my rankings, but there are teams that will fall in love with Dean’s intangibles. He’s a tremendous teammate who was the leader of the national champs’ historic defense. He’s a little undersized, but he can play sideline to sideline.
19. New Orleans Saints (via PHI)
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Even if Michael Thomas comes back healthy, the Saints should address wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks. Williams would have been in the discussion to be the No. 1 wideout in this class, but he tore the ACL in his left knee in the national title game in January and could miss a little time in 2022. He could be a superstar once he’s healthy; he has explosive speed and was uncoverable for the Crimson Tide last season. ACL injuries aren’t even close to career-ending anymore, so I don’t see this as a risky pick. Williams is worth it.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I’d feel much more comfortable taking Pickett here than I would in the top 10. Best-case scenario is that he becomes a Derek Carr, and his floor is an Andy Dalton, which isn’t a bad quarterback by any means. Pittsburgh can win with that. Still, those two were taken in Round 2 and didn’t have Round 1 expectations surrounding them. If Pickett falls into the Steelers’ laps here, he’d be tough to pass up. And he has a little more upside than Mitch Trubisky.
21. New England Patriots
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
I thought about a wide receiver and cornerback here, but Lloyd just feels like a Bill Belichick-type player. He’s always around the ball, is a great blitzer from the middle of the defense and makes plays. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per carry last season, which ranked 25th in the league. This fills a void with an impact player.
22. Green Bay Packers (via LV)
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
There could be a run on wide receivers in the 20s, starting with the Patriots and Packers. We know Green Bay needs one after the Davante Adams trade, but I don’t think general manager Brian Gutekunst is going to force it. Watson is a riser, as teams see a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 40 speed and elite measurables and think he can be a big-play threat who can grow into a better route runner. Watson averaged 20.4 yards per catch in his college career. Watson is ready to contribute for Aaron Rodgers as a rookie.
23. Arizona Cardinals
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Burks can be used in different roles — he even ran 19 routes out of the backfield last season — and will be dynamic after the catch. He will take screens and short passes for scores. For Arizona, this is about helping to replace Christian Kirk and getting some help for an offense that struggled when DeAndre Hopkins went down last season.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
Todd McShay is getting tired of me talking up Ebiketie, but I’m a fan. I wanted to find a fit for him in Round 1. The Temple transfer really improved last season, putting up 9.5 sacks. He has a powerful lower body and knows how to use his hands. The Cowboys have to find a way to replace Randy Gregory, and Ebiketie could help. They could also target a guard or wide receiver here.
25. Buffalo Bills
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
I just moved Hill way up on my Big Board. NFL teams love his versatility — he played more than 550 snaps at nickelback in 2021 — and think he could play both corner and safety. He might be a slot corner if he ends up in Buffalo, which lost Levi Wallace in free agency and has Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL tear. Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) and Kyler Gordon (Washington) are two other corners to keep an eye on. The Bills have one of the best rosters in the league.
26. Tennessee Titans
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
The Titans need to get faster at receiver next to A.J. Brown. That’s not Robert Woods’ game. Dotson, who ran a 4.43 40 at the combine, caught 91 passes last season, 33 coming from the slot. He would give Ryan Tannehill more easy throws because he can scoot after the catch. Tennessee could also target the best offensive lineman available with this pick. On my board, that would be center Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa), and he could play some guard.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Bucs are another team that could take a guard in Round 1, but I see a fit with Wyatt, who could take Ndamukong Suh’s spot next to Vita Vea. Wyatt played mostly as a 3-technique tackle for the Bulldogs, but he could play end in a 3-4 defense, too. He wasn’t a super productive pass-rusher (2.5 sacks last season), but he has the physical tools that coordinators will want to mold. Cornerback could be a possibility for Tampa Bay as well.
28. Green Bay Packers
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
Johnson’s positional flex is impressive to teams, as he dominated as a guard last season — he didn’t allow a single pressure — and took snaps at center at the Senior Bowl. He’d most likely play guard in Green Bay, which lost Lucas Patrick in free agency. Packers fans (and Aaron Rodgers) should be happy with this first-round haul, and the franchise has two second-round picks as well.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via MIA/SF)
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The loss in free agency of cornerback Charvarius Ward shouldn’t go unnoticed. He had developed into a really solid player. The Kansas City defense improved as the 2021 season went along, but it has to get deeper in the secondary. Booth is a smooth 6-foot corner with good ball skills who played both outside and in the slot in college.
30. Kansas City Chiefs
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
No wide receiver? Let me explain. First, the Chiefs also have two second- and two third-round picks. They could take one (or two) wide receivers with those selections. This is a deep class, and they could find better value there. And second, defensive end is a need as well. If Karlaftis is on the board, he’d be an ideal end next to Chris Jones, who does his best work from the interior. Karlaftis didn’t always get home to quarterbacks last season (only 4.5 sacks), but he created pressure.
Projected trade: Jets move up for … a center?
How about a third first-round selection from the Jets? In this scenario, with a glaring hole at center and the top guy still on the board, they deal No. 35 and a Day 3 pick to get back into Round 1. And crucially, they keep their pick at No. 38, which allows them to get more help.
The Bengals would move down just four spots and pick up an extra fourth-rounder. They signed center Ted Karras in free agency among other moves to upgrade their O-line, so their need isn’t as big.
31. New York Jets (via mock trade with CIN)
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Could Linderbaum be the Jets’ new Nick Mangold? They took Mangold at pick No. 29 in 2006 and have been trying to fill that void at center since he left the team after the 2016 season. Some NFL teams are put off by Linderbaum’s short arms, but just watch the tape. He has the physical traits to be an All-Pro and is exceptional as both a run and pass blocker. He’s exactly what the Jets need, and this is tremendous value.
32. Detroit Lions (via LAR)
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
The more I talk to people in the league, the more I think the Lions will stand pat on a quarterback with their three picks in the top 34. Jared Goff can be the starter in 2022, and if he struggles, chances are Detroit will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick, which it can use on a signal-caller. Cine is the fifth Georgia defender in the top 32 picks here (with more to come). He’s a good cover safety who is rising after he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine.
ROUND 2
33. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Green is my top-ranked guard, and a I could see a team falling in love with him in the 20s. He might not be on the board here. Green played everything except center for the Aggies, but he should stick at guard in the NFL. The Jaguars, who have spent a lot of money in free agency — including on guard Brandon Scherff — should try to trade this pick and add extra assets. Taking Green helps them immediately, though.
34. Detroit Lions
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
Ojabo is my top-ranked outside linebacker, even after he tore his Achilles last month and could miss most of the season. If the Lions are thinking long-term, they could get a steal with a high-ceiling edge rusher.
35. Cincinnati Bengals (via mock trade with NYJ)
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Cornerback is the position the Bengals should target if they keep the No. 31 pick, and they should be thrilled with Elam here. He locked down receivers for the Gators and then ran a 4.39 40 at the combine. He could be a Day 1 starter for Cincinnati.
36. New York Giants
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
This makes five safeties off the board in the top 36 picks. Pitre was stellar against the run last season; he had 20 run stops, according to ESPN Stats & Info, which were the most by any FBS defensive back. He impressed teams at the Senior Bowl. The Giants could target a wide receiver here, depending on how the board falls. The 6-foot-3 George Pickens (Georgia) could make sense.
37. Houston Texans
Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Brisker is a physical defensive back with versatility. He played down in the box at times for the Nittany Lions, blowing up running lanes. The Texans let Justin Reid leave in free agency, and they have multiple holes in the secondary.
38. New York Jets (via CAR)
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
Day 2 is when teams should take running backs, and the Jets would be getting the clear top back in this class. Hall can do it all, from forcing missed tackles to catching passes. If the Jets are serious about helping Zach Wilson, they should take Hall. This scenario gives them Hall, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Drake London and Tyler Linderbaum with their first four picks, which would have them well on the way to an “A” grade.
39. Chicago Bears
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
The Bears could go several ways here, including offensive tackle, wide receiver and guard. With Gordon still available, though, I’d pounce. He has lockdown traits and didn’t allow a single touchdown in coverage last season. There has been a great history of teams finding starting corners in the second round, and Gordon has a great chance to play early.
40. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Here’s a landing spot for the third quarterback in this class. Are the Seahawks really going to start Drew Lock all year? I don’t buy it. Ridder is an experienced, savvy signal-caller (43 college wins) who can be a little erratic at times. If he can get his accuracy issues under control, he could be a starter, especially with the type of targets Seattle has. This might be the best-case scenario for the franchise, because Ridder won’t have the expectations of a first-round pick while playing in the shadow of Russell Wilson.
41. Seattle Seahawks
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The sixth Georgia defender off the board so far, Walker is a big and tough linebacker who could try to fill the void left by Bobby Wagner’s departure. I was a big fan of the Seahawks taking Jordyn Brooks in Round 1 in 2020, and this would give them two off-ball linebackers to crush ball carriers and get their hands in passing lanes.
42. Indianapolis Colts (via WSH)
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
There’s a drop off in the tackle class after the top four guys, but there could be a run of them in Round 2. Raimann, who started his college career as a tight end and moved to tackle in 2020, has the physical tools that will entice teams. He needs to be coached hard. This is the Colts’ only pick in the first two rounds, so they have to make it count.
43. Atlanta Falcons
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
The Falcons had just 18 sacks last season, which ranked last in the league. Outside of Grady Jarrett, who in their front seven will scare teams? Mafe had seven sacks last season and was really good during Senior Bowl practices. At 6-foot-3 and 261 pounds, he fits in Atlanta’s 3-4 scheme.
44. Cleveland Browns
Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut
Like the Colts, the Browns have just one pick in the first two rounds, and Jones would fill a need. The 6-foot-4 and 325-pound nose tackle can eat up space and allow the rest of the defense to find the football. He might end up as only a two-down defender; I’d feel better about taking him in Round 2 than in the top 32.
45. Baltimore Ravens
Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
OK, this is the last of the Georgia defenders in my mock draft, and this guy never even made a start for the national champs (in 50 career games). He still played a lot, of course, and had 19 pressures last season. His 4.47 40 at 230 pounds at the combine was extremely impressive. For the Ravens, he could compete for a starting spot at inside linebacker and be a core contributor on special teams.
46. Minnesota Vikings
Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma
Winfrey is more of a classic 3-technique penetrating tackle, and he was one of the biggest risers after his performance at the Senior Bowl. Linemen couldn’t block him. He didn’t always get the chance to create havoc at Oklahoma. Winfrey could be great next to nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson for Minnesota.
47. Washington Commanders (via IND)
George Pickens, WR, Georgia
I love this for Washington, which could get a 6-foot-3 outside receiver with No. 1 traits. He tore his ACL last spring and returned late in the 2021 season, making an impact down the stretch. It’s no guarantee he lasts until Round 2 — teams could think long-term and be patient with him — but the Commanders should try to pair him with Terry McLaurin.
48. Chicago Bears (via LAC)
Tyler Smith, OT/G, Tulsa
I mentioned Chicago’s offensive line need at No. 39, and Smith could play a role at guard or tackle. He played left tackle for the Golden Hurricane, but some teams view him as a better guard at the next level. He has to be more consistent and work on his technique — he was called for a whopping 12 penalties last season — but the tools are there.
49. New Orleans Saints
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Corral is a tough evaluation. He wants to play like Josh Allen but doesn’t have the size — he’s only 6-foot-2. He was the only player in the country last season with 3,300-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards. Will he be able to consistently make every throw in the NFL? That’s why I think he’s a safer bet on Day 2. He would make a lot of sense in New Orleans, where he could get an evaluation year behind Jameis Winston.
50. Kansas City Chiefs (via MIA)
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
Happy now, Chiefs fans? Here’s a speedy 5-foot-10 wide receiver who will look just a little similar to Tyreek Hill. I’ve called Moore the most underrated player in this class. I love what he does after the catch — he forced 30 missed tackles last season, which ranked second in FBS among receivers — and he doesn’t drop passes. He has huge hands. He’s not going to be a straight replacement for Hill, but he’ll contribute as a rookie.
51. Philadelphia Eagles
Drake Jackson, DE/OLB, USC
There was a time when I thought Jackson might be a top-10 pick, but he never quite put everything together for the Trojans. Still, NFL teams will see his size (6-foot-3, 254 pounds) and physical traits and think they can coach him to hit his ceiling. For the Eagles, Jackson might be a situational pass-rusher at first while he develops his game. Edge rush is a clear need for Philly.
52. Pittsburgh Steelers
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie tore his ACL in December, but he was having a fantastic season, with 96 catches for 1,142 yards and eight scores. He can play in the slot and make a difference in the middle of the field for the Steelers, which let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Metchie should be able to recover to play in Week 1 — and potentially help Kenny Pickett.
53. Green Bay Packers (via LV)
Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
My comp for Pierce will be familiar to Packers fans — it’s Jordy Nelson. And Green Bay got Nelson in the second round, too. The 6-foot-3 Pierce ran a 4.41 40 at the combine and also had a 40.5-inch vertical. He has rare physical tools, which have him climbing draft boards. He could thrive on go routes from Aaron Rodgers.
54. New England Patriots
Logan Hall, DL, Houston
This is another Patriots-type pick, because Hall is a bit of a tweener. At 6-foot-6 and 283 pounds, he might be best suited for a defensive end spot in a 3-4 scheme, or he could kick inside and play as a 3-technique tackle. Bill Belichick & Co. will be able to use him in different ways. Hall has put on more than 50 pounds since high school, so he’s still growing into his frame.
55. Arizona Cardinals
Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn
McCreary is fundamentally sound and advanced in his technique, but he’s undersized (5-foot-11) with short arms. He’s also not as explosive as a few other corners in this class. Still, he has some great tape, and I don’t think he’ll drop past Round 3, because he could be a great nickel corner. Arizona has to add quality depth in the secondary.
56. Dallas Cowboys
Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
The Cowboys released La’el Collins and think Terence Steele, a former undrafted free agent, can be the starter at right tackle. Let’s add some competition, though. Lucas impressed at the combine, and he stonewalled edge rushers on the right side for the Cougars. If he doesn’t start at tackle, he could move inside to guard. The O-line is a clear area to upgrade for Dallas.
57. Buffalo Bills
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
Bills fans would be thrilled with these two picks, right? Buffalo would address its hole in the secondary with Daxton Hill in Round 1, then get a starting-caliber late in Round 2. Walker is a bulldozer with some juice through the hole. He wasn’t used much as a receiver in college (just 19 career catches), so that’s a question mark. But for a team that needs to take pressure off its quarterback and has excellent receivers, Walker could thrive.
58. Atlanta Falcons (via TEN)
Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State
Andersen played as an off-ball linebacker — and quarterback, running back — in college, racking up 150 tackles last season. He impressed at the combine, running a 4.42 40 at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds. That’s an elite number. Atlanta just has to focus on replenishing its roster, so this is great value.
59. Green Bay Packers
Myjai Sanders, DE/OLB, Cincinnati
Sanders weighed just 228 pounds at the combine and reportedly had lost weight because of a stomach bug. He should settle in the 240-range in the NFL, and he might be best suited as an outside linebacker. But he has some explosive traits off the edge, and he could be an interesting high-upside pick on Day 2. The Packers have to add young edge talent in this draft.
60. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
Super Bowl contenders are allowed to use the draft to fill needs, because they don’t have many holes. And really, the Bucs and Bills are the two teams with the fewest number of obvious holes. With Ali Marpet retiring and Alex Cappa signing with the Bengals, Tampa will have two new starters at guard. Strange made 44 starts in college and showed at the Senior Bowl that he could play with the best of the best.
61. San Francisco 49ers
Cam Taylor-Britt, DB, Nebraska
This is the 49ers’ debut pick in this draft, but this late in Round 2, they’re not going to be guaranteed to get a starter. They can take a need position, sure, but they shouldn’t reach to make it happen. Taylor-Britt makes sense because he has some raw tools with which to work and has the skill set to play multiple spots. He had 11 pass breakups last season. San Francisco signed Charvarius Ward but should add corner depth.
62. Kansas City Chiefs
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama
How about one more wideout for the Chiefs? Tolbert had 2,559 receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 6-foot-1 and 194 pounds, he has the ability to run every route, and coach Andy Reid can scheme him open around the formation. This lets Kansas City try to replace Tyreek Hill with two wideouts (I also gave it Skyy Moore earlier in the round), both of whom will need some time to adjust to the NFL.
63. Cincinnati Bengals
Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
Let’s end this projection with the top tight ends in the class. Dulcich averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season, lining up mostly next to offensive tackles. He ran some routes out of the slot, but if the Bengals want to replace C.J. Uzomah with a similar tight end, that’s Dulcich.
64. Denver Broncos (via LAR)
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
McBride is more advanced as a pass-catcher than Dulcich, which is what the Broncos need with new quarterback Russell Wilson. With Noah Fant off to Seattle, there are targets available. McBride had 90 catches for 1,121 yards last season; he could stretch the seams in Denver.
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